- CIAO Search Results

151. Xi’s New Year’s Speech Dismisses Difficulties

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On New Year’s Eve, a prerecorded address from Chinese President Xi Jinping was broadcast across the Party’s global network of official media outlets (Youtube, December 31, 2023). The speech is an annual tradition, delivered from behind a wooden desk in rhetoric that is at once paternalistic and triumphalist, in which Xi surveys the high points of the outgoing year and looks to the year ahead. The form of this year’s set-piece was no different, but the content departed from previous years in ways that are indicative of Xi’s shifting priorities, and the Party’s growing concerns about the state of the nation. The most significant section of the speech addressed the economic difficulties that China has weathered in the last year: “On the road ahead, trials and hardships [lit. ‘wind and rain’] will be the norm. Some enterprises are facing pressures, some of the masses are encountering difficulties finding jobs and meeting basic needs, and some places have hit by floods, typhoons, earthquakes, or other natural disasters (有风有雨是常态。一些企业面临经营压力，一些群众就业、生活遇到困难，一些地方发生洪涝、台风、地震等自然灾害).”
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Ideology, Xi Jinping, and Rhetoric
Political Geography:: China and Asia

152. China’s Anti-Corruption Efforts Gain Momentum in Finance and Healthcare

Author:: Alexis Brown
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On September 27, Chinese President Xi Jinping presided over a meeting of the Politburo, where he announced the end of the current round of finance inspections but suggested that more were to follow (Xinhua, September 27). The authorities may have chosen to focus on financial corruption to coincide with the restructuring of financial regulators in March, in which a central finance commission was created to give the Party center more direct control over the finance sector. This move indicates that the Party has taken a greater interest in the sector. So far in 2023, China’s anti-corruption organs, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI, 中国共产党中央纪律检查委员会) and the National Supervisory Commission (NSC, 中华人民共和国国家监察委员会), have intensified investigations across both the healthcare and finance sectors. Authorities have investigated at least 180 hospital chiefs and 80 senior employees in financial institutions between January and early September. [1] By comparison, the CCDI and NSC only targeted 12 hospital leaders from 2019-2022 (CCDI). Through the anti-corruption campaigns, the party leadership is likely to bolster support among certain demographics, eliminate political opponents, and address some real instances of graft. However, due to the absence of robust institutions and transparency, systemic corruption will persist after the current drives wind down. The Party and state organs carry out anti-corruption in healthcare regularly, but in 2023 they have elevated the importance of this work. This is the first time the CCDI and NSC were involved in the National Health Commission’s annual conference on anti-corruption, where a national centralized campaign to crack down on graft was launched. The campaign will continue until mid-2024 (National Health Commission, July 21). [2] One motivation may be to address public frustrations with healthcare from the COVID-19 pandemic. There was an uproar over incidents like hospitals turning away ER patients for not having negative Covid tests and testing centers generating huge profits but producing fraudulent test results (Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council, December 9 2022 Credit China, December 23 2022). Another reason may be to combat illegal healthcare charges in order to boost household consumption, one of the government’s top economic targets for 2023 (Xinhua, March 14).
Topic:: Corruption, Finance, Public Policy, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:: China and Asia

153. Beijing’s Aggression Behind Emerging India-Philippines Defense Relationship

Author:: Peter Chalk
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China’s increasingly assertive stance on affirming its territorial claims in the Indo-Pacific is informing the evolution of a closer defense relationship between New Delhi and Manila. On September 25, the Philippine Coast Guard removed a floating barrier that China had installed at Huangyan Dao (黄岩岛, an island in the Scarborough Shoal) in the South China Sea (SCS) the previous day. Responding to questions about the incident, PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin (王文斌) maintained that “China Coast Guard did what was necessary to block and drive away the Philippine vessel,” and that “Huangyan Dao has always been China’s territory. What the Philippines did looks like nothing more than self-amusement” (FMPRC, September 26; FMPRC, September 27). Earlier in September, New Delhi’s Ambassador to the Philippines Shambu Kumaran expressed solidarity with Manila by pointedly rejecting the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s new extended ten-dash map of its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea (SCS) and Line of Actual Control (LAC). He criticized the move from Beijing as unhelpful “cartographic expansionism” (Manila Times, September 3). These two incidents, occurring in the space of less than a month, are only the most recent in a string of aggressive acts in recent years. The reactions of both India and the Philippines are indicative of growing unity among some of China’s neighboring countries as a direct response to the security threat that China poses. In recent years, these two partners have increased the areas of engagement for security collaboration and expressed an intent to further such initiatives. The PRC lambasts the Philippines for choosing “to ignore China’s goodwill and sincerity” (MOFA, August 8), but this rhetoric only reaffirms Manila’s shifting calculus. There are limits to how close the Indo-Philippines defense relationship will get, but there is still ample room to explore various forms of cooperation short of a mutual defense treaty. The coming years will see much more of that exploration start to materialize. The PRC has several options in terms of responding to this emerging dynamic. These range from economic coercion, influence operations, and leveraging its relationship with Russia to put pressure on India. It is unclear which combination of these the PRC will ultimately pursue, though the PRC has made it abundantly clear that backing down in the South China Sea is not an option it is willing to entertain.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Coercion, and Aggression
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Philippines, and Asia-Pacific

154. The Polish Economy 2023 and Beyond: How to Mend Home Loans

Author:: Andrzej Reich, Dariusz Filar, and Michal Polasik
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The subject of this publication, reflecting the discussion held between experts on 30 March 2023, is that of housing loans in Poland. The publication focuses primarily on discussing the state of mortgages (at the end of the first quarter of 2023). This state is the effect of (a) legislation, (b) institutional solutions, (c) past processes in the financing of housing loans, and recently also (d) the high level of inflation dampening both lending by the banks and the level of interest among bank customers. The publication's second purpose is to present recommendations which, once put into effect, could rectify today’s lamentable situation. All of the proposals presented in this publication lead to one general recommendation: the answer to the current shortcomings lies not in isolated, single changes; what is essential is a new system for the market. This new system should be (a) flexible, (b) free of legal risk while at the same time (c) better protected against market risk, and (d) it should also contain a more comprehensive range of products; on this market (e) the state, as the regulator, should intervene ex-ante and not only ex-post (as has been the case in Poland for the last 20 years), while (f) customers should have the essential minimum of financial knowledge, first and foremost regarding awareness of the risk related to, which by their very nature are long-term loans.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Interest Rates, Risk, Mortgages, Banking, Loans, and Financial Education
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

155. Global IR Research Programme: From Perplexities to Progressions

Author:: Deepshikha Shahi
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Our basic expectations vis-à-vis ‘the international’ have turned our phenomenal existence into two seemingly irreconcilable cognitive prisons: ‘one world’ with homogenizing propensities (dominated by the West) and ‘many worlds’ with heterogenizing predispositions (embodied by the non-West). Every so often, these cognitive prisons—oscillating between the extreme homogenizing propensities of the West and heterogenizing predispositions of the non-West— become obstacles in implementing effective global partnerships that are required to tackle the challenges thrown by global crisis-situations, e.g., the likelihoods of world war, financial crisis, climate change, pandemic, and the like. The agenda of the ‘Global IR research programme’ has emerged to demolish these cognitive prisons. To this end, this agenda finds rational support from multiple auxiliary theories that derive stimulus from hitherto denigrated knowledge-forms thriving in different corners of the world: e.g., Tianxia (all-under-heaven) from China, Advaita (non-duality) from India, and Mu No Basho (place of nothingness) from Japan. Nevertheless, the conditioned reflexes of many IR researchers compel them to receive the emergent knowledge-forms by correlating their ‘source’ and ‘scope’: generally, the knowledge-forms having their source in the West are granted a global scope, whereas the knowledge-forms having their source in the non-West are given a local scope; it is often suspected that the local non-Western knowledge-forms cannot grasp the larger global scenario. Philosophically, these conditioned reflexes emanate from Kantian dualism, which forms disconnected opposites of phenomena-noumena, science-metaphysics, West–non-West etc. This article reveals how the Global IR research programme—inspired by the Chinese, Indian and Japanese cosmovisions—strives to demolish the cognitive prisons of ‘one world versus many worlds’, thereby ensuring the prospective progressions of this research programme.
Topic:: International Relations and Research
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, and Global Focus

156. Socializing IR: Turkish IR Scholars and their Twitter Interactions

Author:: Hakan Mehmetcik, Eric Lease Morgan, and Melih Kölük
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Online social networking services (Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, etc.) have altered the way we engage with individuals, groups, and communities by profoundly changing our everyday information and communication habits on a global scale. Today, social media has also grown into a massive data repository providing very detailed information on the opinions, beliefs, and communications of millions of individuals. Similarly, social media analysis has grown into an essential method for various fields, including political science and international relations. The purpose of this study is to undertake a nuanced social media analysis using Twitter data to contextualize and assess the context, scope, and impact of Turkish IR scholars’ interactions on Twitter. Within the scope of the paper, network analysis, topic modeling, descriptive statistics, and regression analysis approaches will be employed to draw meaningful interpretations about their Twitter interactions. Our basic premise is that among Turkish IR scholars, there is a collective network that connects them in terms of interactions, attitudes, and opinions, and that network may be found by analyzing their Twitter data. This working assumption is not supported by the findings.
Topic:: International Relations, Social Media, Academia, and Network Analysis
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

157. Disciplinary Boundaries and Methodological Issues of Teaching Geopolitics in Turkey

Author:: Cem Savaş
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This study aims to present a critical portrayal of teaching geopolitics at Turkish universities by assessing both undergraduate and graduate levels of Political Science and International Relations (IR) curricula. Geopolitical analysis has gone through several phases and traditions by conceiving space as a crucial element for representing world politics. In addition to interstate rivalries, geopolitics also refers to many conflicts and rivalries within an intrastate framework in the context of multiple territorial scales. While geopolitics seems to be falsely perceived as something equal to a state-centric and hard realist academic subfield under a strong military tutelage in Turkey, it lacks a broad multi-level analysis, as well as geographical and historical reasoning. In this study, I propose to consider cartography, territoriality, and geopolitical representations, which form the basis of contemporary geopolitical analysis. The article evaluates weekly schedules, learning outcomes, content, and objectives of the courses available on the European Credit Transfer and Accumulation System (ECTS) information packages on university websites. Based on a qualitative case study, it eventually aims to improve the methodological character of geopolitics teaching, indirectly influencing the level and quality of geopolitics in Turkey.
Topic:: International Relations, Geopolitics, Political Science, Teaching, Methodology, and Curriculum
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

158. Realism’s Timeless Wisdom and its Relevance for the Global South

Author:: Nicolas A. Beckmann and Onur Erpul
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Since the numerous calls for developing a truly global and plural IR discipline, a growing spate of IR studies have sought to contextualize and critique the Euro-centeredness of the field. One of the most significant problems scholars have pointed out is the hegemonic status of Anglo-American IR theories, which seemingly assert an ontological preeminence and universality at the expense of local knowledge and homegrown theories. While the present article shares many of global IR’s concerns, it nevertheless proposes that in our quest to teach IR and develop homegrown theories, we should not lose sight of the importance of traditional contributions to the field. Our argument is based on a series of reflections about the relevance of realist scholarship for the developing world. Through an analysis of the major criticisms of classical IR theories, we seek to show that classical and, to a lesser extent, structural and neoclassical realism contain several and diverse arguments that speak directly to audiences in the global South. Classical realism, in particular, shares some interesting commonalities with postcolonial theory, which could pave the way for a more systematic engagement between the two approaches. Therefore, we argue that a global IR founded only on critiquing classical theories would be an impoverished IR, and “the thousand small steps to” a globalized discipline ought not neglect the valuable insights and reflections of traditional theory.
Topic:: International Relations, Post Colonialism, and Realism
Political Geography:: Global South

159. The Dark Side of the Moon: An Ever-Fragmenting Discipline and Turkish IR in “the Outer Periphery”

Author:: Haluk Özdemir
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: A recent debate has emerged in the literature about a need for more global International Relations (IR), one which is truly international, to be worthy of its name. This paper outlines the multi-dimensional fragmentation in IR, which has prevented the emergence of a genuinely integrated and global discipline, and created a context in which the periphery cannot make original contributions to the core. The main purpose of this paper is to point out the major obstacles for such original contributions that emanate from the periphery itself. Aside from the general core-periphery fragmentation in the discipline, the periphery is collapsing within itself. From that perspective, the core and the periphery look more integrated, while the real division is between the periphery and the outer periphery. The outer periphery, while mostly invisible to the core, has real effects in IR practice, yet its nature and problems are not looked upon or handled by the current literature. Based on this observation, and using the Turkish example, four major problems of the outer periphery that affect the periphery and curtail its potential for original contributions are identified: (1) apathy towards western IR; (2) conspiracy theorizing; (3) chronological historicism; and (4) the outer periphery’s influence on the mainstream periphery. After discussing these problems, it is concluded that the periphery can make contributions to the core only after it has helped the outer periphery solve its problems, and integration within the periphery is achieved. Only then can original contributions of the periphery to a truly international IR be possible.
Topic:: International Relations, History, Academia, and Periphery
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

160. Are We There Yet? A Global Investigation of Knowledge Inclusion in International Relations Theory Curricula

Author:: Jacqui Ala
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: It is now rather well established that most International Relations (IR) theories are predicated on Western knowledges. This potentially limits their analytical capacity to explain international relations beyond Western ideological values or interests. However, in recent years there has been a substantial increase in scholarship not only critiquing the Western centric nature of International Relations theory but also exploring the contributions that knowledges from the global South make to the field of IR theory. Thus, the status quo is shifting, albeit slowly. Nevertheless, the impact as well as the implication of this shift toward knowledge plurality for the IR theory curricula has not been paid adequate attention. Consequently, this article investigates whether the demand for knowledge plurality in the realm of IR theory research has made inroads into the arena of pedagogy resulting in the generation of knowledge plural IR theory curricula. Moreover, it examines the different choices and interpretations made by educators in endeavouring to create knowledge plural IR theory curricula in various global contexts. Further, it endeavours to discern the factors that have informed and/or shaped respondents’ curricula and pedagogical choices pertaining to the selection, structuring and transmission of IR knowledge at tertiary education institutions in different geographical contexts. Ultimately, it reflects on the implications of the increase in knowledge plural curricula for the development of greater knowledge plurality within the discipline.
Topic:: International Relations, International Relations Theory, Decolonization, Knowledge Systems, and Curriculum
Political Geography:: Global Focus

161. Western-Centric Moments in Homegrown IR Theories: Dependency, Chinese and African Schools

Author:: Engin Sune
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The modern international system has been shaped by long-standing historical practices of unequal power relations, which have positioned the Western world at the center of the political universe. Due to the centrality of the Global North in the international system, any IR theory that aims to portray a true picture of the “globe” necessarily situates the West at the center of scientific inquiry. Furthermore, the form of universality generated by Western hegemony has been diffused throughout the world over centuries, spreading Western political institutions, economic structures, and ideological norms in an uneven setting. As a result, the social structures of the Global South have developed through an uneven form of relationship and dialectical interaction with the West. Therefore, homegrown IR theories, which uncover local political, philosophical, or cultural motives as sources for theory-making, in fact, concentrate on stratified forms of the universal reality that is diffused through the uneven spread of Western social structures. In this sense, there is a Western-centric moment in any homegrown IR theory. Accordingly, this article develops a scientific realist account of the structure/agent relationship in order to analyze the material grounds of Western-centrism in the field of international politics and to evaluate the role of non-Western actors. Additionally, it critically evaluates distinctive homegrown theories produced on three different continents to reveal the aforementioned Western-centric moments in these theoretical initiatives. Namely, the Dependency School of Latin America, the Chinese School of International Relations, and the African School are respectively scrutinized to disclose the embedded Western-centrism in these theoretical initiatives.
Topic:: International Relations and International Relations Theory
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Global South

162. A battle against time – and against Putin’s Russia

Author:: Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: With Putin’s war against Ukraine about to enter its third year, the EU’s enlargement policy remains at the top of its foreign policy priorities, with the focus being on both Ukraine and Moldova. This is following the European Council’s decision to open accession negotiations with both countries. But where does this leave the countries of the Western Balkans and their very long journey towards the EU which began over 20 years ago? Will these countries’ hopes for much needed political momentum in their accession prospects be fulfilled during 2024, despite the repeated delays and the EU’s failure to respect its commitments to the region over the past few years? With elections taking place across Europe offering fertile ground for Russia to deploy its arsenal of disinformation tactics, time is not on the EU’s side. To counter Russian attempts to influence developments in the region, as well as to reverse the dangerous trend of backsliding in democratic and rule of law reforms, the EU will need to adopt a more robust, consistent and determined approach towards the Western Balkans. Without any further delay, it needs to set out a much needed geopolitical and security direction for its enlargement policies in the Western Balkans.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Rule of Law, Regional Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Balkans

163. A Strategy for Countering the Houthi Threat at Sea

Author:: Bilal Y. Saab, Nancy Youssef, and Kevin Donegan
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: For the first time in four decades, a core US interest — freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce — is increasingly at risk in the Middle East region. By enabling the Yemeni Houthis to attack international vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden with armed drones and sophisticated anti-ship missiles, Iran, as it did in the Gulf in the late 1980s, is causing tremendous harm to commercial activity in one of the world’s most crucial waterways. In a memorandum entitled “A Strategy for Countering the Houthi Threat at Sea” and addressed to US President Joe Biden, the Middle East Institute’s Defense and Security Program members Bilal Y. Saab, Kevin Donegan, Mick Mulroy, Sam Mundy, and Joseph L. Votel offer recommendations for the United States on how to effectively degrade the capabilities of the Houthis and protect international shipping in regional waters. To discuss in greater detail the Defense and Security Program’s proposed strategy and the likely future trajectory and implications of the US campaign against the Houthis, MEI is pleased to host Bilal Y. Saab and Kevin Donegan.
Topic:: Security, Non State Actors, Houthis, Shipping, and Commerce
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, and Red Sea

164. China’s Role in the Middle East

Author:: John Calabrese and Yun Sun
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss China’s role in the Middle East amid rising regional tensions and growing threats to both international security and the global economy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Security, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

165. What’s next for Pakistan after election shock?

Author:: Tamkinet Karim, Syed Mohammed Ali, and Alistair Taylor
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: On this week's episode Tamkinet Karim, Syed Mohammad Ali, and Alistair Taylor discuss the results of Pakistan’s Feb. 8 elections and where things might be headed moving forward. Over the past two years, Pakistan has gone through a particularly turbulent period, following the removal of Imran Khan’s government in a no-confidence vote in April 2022 — a time marked by political instability, intense polarization, a worsening economic crisis, and growing threats to internal security.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Elections, Polarization, Economic Crisis, and Instability
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

166. The Invasion of Rafah

Author:: Eran Etzion and Mirette F. Mabrouk
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute hosted an on-the-record briefing on the impending ground invasion of Rafah, one of the last remaining safe zones for civilians in Gaza, and Egypt's preparations to secure and fortify its border ahead of the operation.
Topic:: War, Borders, Civilians, and Invasion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Egypt, and Rafah

167. US Military Action in the Middle East

Author:: Joseph Votel and Gerald Feierstein
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss US military action against the Houthis and other militant groups throughout the region.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Houthis, Shipping, and Military
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

168. Spotlight on US Syria policy

Author:: Charles Lister and Alistair Taylor
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: On this week's episode, Director of MEI's Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism Programs Charles Lister and MEI Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor talk about US policy toward Syria. The deadly Jan. 28 drone attack on a US military outpost in northeastern Jordan, near the borders with Syria and Iraq, has drawn renewed attention to the US military presence in the area. This comes against a backdrop of regional conflict and escalation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Escalation, and Military
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

169. Iranian Proxies in Iraq and Syria

Author:: Charles Lister and Douglas London
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss Iran’s proxy network throughout Syria and Iraq.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

170. Iran’s 1979 revolution and its resonance today

Author:: Alex Vatanka and Alistair Taylor
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: On this week's episode, MEI Iran Program Director Alex Vatanka, MEI Non-resident Scholar Andrew Scott Cooper, and MEI Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor discuss the Iranian Revolution of 1979. A seminal event in the history of the modern Middle East, the revolution transformed Iran and its impact continues to reverberate across the region today, nearly five decades on.
Topic:: History, Geopolitics, and Iranian Revolution
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

171. How Safe is Eastern Mediterranean Gas?

Author:: Colby Connelly, Gregory Brew, and Karen Young
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss the security of offshore gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the state of the international gas market given the ongoing tension and conflict in the Middle East.
Topic:: Security, Markets, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean

172. Ties Between Hostile Actors in the Red Sea

Author:: Mirette F. Mabrouk, Guled Ahmed, and Thomas Halvorsen
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss the ways in which the Houthis, Al Shebab, Somali pirates, and others are collaborating to undermine maritime security and limit the free flow of commerce in the Red Sea.
Topic:: Security, Non State Actors, Maritime, Al Shabaab, Houthis, and Commerce
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Red Sea

173. The Gaza War's Regional Reverberations

Author:: Randa Slim and Alistair Taylor
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: On this week's episode, President and CEO of the Middle East Institute Paul Salem and Director of MEI’s Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program Randa Slim speak to MEI's Editor-in-Chief Alistair Taylor about growing concerns over the potential for large-scale regional escalation as the Gaza war continues. *Note: This episode was recorded before drone attacks that killed US soldiers in Jordan on 1/28. *
Topic:: Non State Actors, Conflict, Escalation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

174. Bahraini Artists Across Borders

Author:: Marwa Al Khalifa, Mashael Alsaie, and Jaafar Al Oraibi
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute Arts and Culture Center invites you to a panel conversation about the arts in Bahrain with three artists featured in its current exhibition, The Sea of Life: Modern and Contemporary Art from The Kingdom of Bahrain. The panel is part of the ongoing programming around the exhibition, which runs until March 26, 2024.https://youtu.be/yVusVFiYmbo?si=hFNLCpbgB6cDWt9v Marwa Al Khalifa, Mashael Alsaie and Jaafar Al Oraibi will discuss their work, the vision that drives their practice and how their art is part of a conversation that is shaping Bahrain's local arts scene, pushing its boundaries and exploring new artistic expressions. The Sea of Life features fourteen artists spanning different generations and art forms exploring their connection to their natural and built environment through painting, photography, sculpture, video and installation, co-curated by Bahrain-based Hayfa Aljishi and MEI Arts and Culture Center Director Lyne Sneige.
Topic:: Arts, Culture, and Borders
Political Geography:: Middle East and Bahrain

175. Escalation on the Israel-Lebanon Front

Author:: Paul Salem and Randa Slim
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss the highly volatile situation between Israel and Hezbollah across the Israeli-Lebanese border.
Topic:: Security, Non State Actors, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon

176. Antisemitism and Islamophobia in the US political discourse on Israel/Palestine

Author:: Sahar Aziz and Mitchell Plitnick
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Sahar Aziz and Mitchell Plitnick discuss their study "Presumptively Antisemitic: Islamophobic Tropes in the Palestine Israel Discourse" with MEI's Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs Program Director Khaled Elgindy.
Topic:: Politics, Islamophobia, Anti-Semitism, and Discourse
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America

177. Houthi Shipping Attacks in the Red Sea

Author:: Kevin Donegan and Sam Mundy
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss the Houthis’ escalatory military activity in the Red Sea and what it means for the future security of merchant vessels in this key waterway.
Topic:: Security, Violence, Houthis, and Shipping
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Red Sea

178. Expert Voices: Geopolitical Implications of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Partnership

Author:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Expert Voices: Geopolitical Implications of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Partnership
Topic:: Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Somaliland

179. Fragile States and Aid Allocation for Sub-Saharan African Countries: An Empirical Research

Author:: Zeynep Arıöz and Hacer Soykan Adaoğlu
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: State fragility has received increasing attention in recent decades as a result of the nexus between development and international stability. This study investigates the empirical drivers of state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa from 2007 to 2019. We shed light on the explanatory variables of government effectiveness, political stability, per-capita GDP, grow GDP%, International Monetary Fund loans, and official development assistance. Using panel data analysis and a 39-country sample, our study finds that government efficiency and political stability, in contrast to foreign aid, has a significant effect on reducing fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. In light of these findings, the article proposes delivering foreign aid in ways that strengthen state capacity.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Econometrics, International Institutions, and Fragility
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

180. The Party and the People: Chinese Politics in the 21st Century

Author:: Orhan Çifçi
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: In his book, The Party and the People: Chinese Politics in the 21st Century, Bruce Dickson, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University, thoroughly scrutinizes China’s domestic political system and the inner structure of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Dickson largely limits his primer to the post-Mao period, with each of the book’s sections answering specific research questions: “What Keeps the Party in Power?”, “How Are Leaders Chosen?”, “How Are Policies Made?”, “Does China Have a Civil Society?”, “Do Political Protests Threaten Political Stability?”, “Why Does the Party Fear Religion?”, “How Nationalistic Is China?” and “Will China Become Democratic?”. Each question he seeks answers to sheds light on the relationship between the CCP and Chinese society. Dickson argues that the CCP has exercised unopposed authority throughout the country since 1949 despite many elite conflicts, economic catastrophes and social unrests. Nevertheless, the party has not always resorted to repressive methods to stay in power. Rather, it is the author’s main argument that the main survival policy is the party’s ability to be responsive to the demands of Chinese people. For Dickson, the repression-responsiveness dichotomy is the core strategy that made it possible for the CCP to rule China as a single party for decades.
Topic:: Politics, History, Book Review, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: China and Asia

181. Understanding EU-NATO Cooperation: How Member States Matter

Author:: Pınar Atakara
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: “Understanding EU-NATO Cooperation: How Member States Matter” by Nele Marianne Ewers-Peters conducts a distinctly member-state based theoretical examination of interorganizational cooperation between the EU and NATO. Ewers-Peters mainly intends to demonstrate member states’ foreign/security policy orientations, roles and positions affecting the functionality and dys-functionality of Euro-Atlantic security, between the period of the end of the Cold War and 2021. The book is composed of seven chapters including conclusion and implications. By providing 28 face-to-face semi-structured interviews carried out in Berlin and Brussels between February 2017 and February 2018, with different member states’ representatives (see Appendix A.), as well as document analysis of primary and secondary sources, the book relies on well-designed qualitative research.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, European Union, and Book Review
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

182. Japan’s Border Measures during Covid-19: How the Crisis Shaped ‘Others’ to Protect the ‘Stability of Self’

Author:: Vuslat Nur Şahin Temel and Zhao Xiru
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The Covid-19 pandemic has prompted countries to implement a wide range of specific cross-border security measures. The fear and anxiety induced by this crisis have rapidly expanded and contracted countries’ understanding of ‘self’ and ‘other’. This study examines Japan’s shift from liberal pre- Covid-19 border policies to the most stringent border closure measures among the G7 countries during the pandemic. In this study, we argue that the pandemic-induced fear increased anxiety in Japan’s public health safety identity, rapidly reshaping the conceptualization of the ‘self’ and ‘other’ in crisis scenarios. This shift aligns with Japan’s historical narrative of combating unprecedented threats to public health.
Topic:: Borders, Public Health, Human Security, COVID-19, Isolation, Ontological Security, and Anxiety
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

183. Politicization, Ratification of International Agreements, and Domestic Political Competition in Non-Democracies: The Case of Iran and the Paris Climate Accords

Author:: Reşat Bayer and Bijan Tafazzoli
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: While some degree of competition is present in many authoritarian regimes, the implications of such controlled competition on international issues have not received much consideration, including towards international environmental accords. We attempt to rectify this through a framework where we focus on internal political competition in a hybrid, nondemocratic system where national elections are held regularly. Specifically, we argue that the presence of multiple actors competing in elections in nondemocratic settings results in them assuming positions on various issues, justifying their positions, and attempting to mobilize their supporters with considerable implications for international environmental policies. We display our argument in the context of Iranian debates on the ratification of the Paris Climate Accords. Our findings demonstrate that the competing Iranian sides rely on different justifications for their environmental positions, resulting in extensive (negative) competitions of rhetoric where the international dimension emerges as an important feature in the internal competition. Overall, we show that political competition within non-democracies is likely to add to the complexity of international (environmental) negotiations and cooperation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Elections, Paris Agreement, Narrative, and Regime Survival
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

184. Vernacular Border Security: Citizens’ Narratives of Europe’s ‘Migration Crisis’

Author:: Muhammed Onur Çöpoğlu
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: After the waters of the Mediterranean Sea washed the dead body of Alan Kurdi ashore in 2015, issues of migration, border security, and European Union (EU) migration policy gained more widespread interest. Although many scholars deal with the issue from different angles by focusing on the roles of different ‘agents’ and their roles in the politics of the EU’s 2015 ‘migration crisis’, Vernacular Border Security: Citizens’ Narratives of Europe’s ‘Migration Crisis’ argues that there is no comprehensive study analyzing the EU citizens itself (p. 4). Problematizing the passive recipient role given to the EU citizens, Nick Vaughan-Williams critically intervenes, problematizing contemporary scholarship’s “propensity to speak for, rather than to (or, perhaps better, with) ‘ordinary people’…”.1 Asking “[w]hy is it that the intensification of EU border security appears to have heightened rather than diminished border anxieties among EU citizens?” (p. 3), Vaughan- Williams highlights a theoretical and methodological shift in studying border security, one that juxtaposes ‘top-down’ elite narratives of border security with ‘bottom-up’ investigations of ordinary EU citizens’ knowledge on the issue. Chapter 1 justifies this unique theoretical shift, namely the ‘vernacular turn’ in critical security studies. Connecting elite and vernacular narratives becomes a must if we are to transcend dominant securitizing narratives of migration and see alternative ways of ‘living with’ strangers (p. 3-4). Forming such a connection allows us to understand better the interconnected relationship between the macro-level of national border security and border anxieties at the micro-level of citizens. And, in the final analysis, it is important to see how these elite narratives are both reproduced and contested locally in citizens’ everyday lives. Chapter 1 also contributes to vernacular security studies by conceptualizing ‘vernacular narratives’, which has been absent so far in the theoretical discussion (p.12).
Topic:: Security, Migration, Refugee Crisis, Book Review, Borders, and Narrative
Political Geography:: Europe

185. Before the West: The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders

Author:: Hasan Basri Barit
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: In the last decade, there has been a growing interest in Global International Relations (IR), which calls for a non-Western approach to IR, an endeavor that has produced several books and articles. One recent such work is Before the West: The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders by Ayşe Zarakol in 2022. This book differs from other studies on Global IR with its alternative narrative based on the Chingissid world order, which challenges Eurocentrism from an Asian angle with the help of the IR terminology that we use today.
Topic:: International Relations, History, Book Review, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

186. Goodbye to Russia, Russia and Russia!1: Finland’s New NATO Chapter Within the Framework of Shelter Theory

Author:: Yeliz Kulali Martin
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: One significant impact on the international system of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War has been Finland’s NATO membership. This article suggests that Baldur Thorhallsson’s shelter theory is the most suitable explanation for Finland’s decision. According to the theory, an alliance relationship with NATO will remedy the lack of hard security shelter of a state categorized as a small state in the literature. Many experts believe that this is a pragmatic choice by Finland against the Russian threat. On the other hand, Finland has a long history with Russia and is known for its neutral and peaceful policies, trying to establish a balance between East and West. For the above-mentioned reasons, membership in NATO is a much more difficult decision than it seems on the surface. In this framework, this article will first explain the place of Thorhallsson’s theory in International Relations. Then, Finland’s general foreign policy choices will be examined in light of current shelter relationships. Finally, in presenting the country’s history with NATO, it will focus on the potential consequences of the membership.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Behavior, Russia-Ukraine War, Shelter Theory, Small States, and Hard Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Finland

187. Assessing the Impact of Turkey’s Quest for Status Since the 2000s on Foreign Policy Change: Transformational or Transactional?

Author:: Samiratou Dipama and Emel Parlar Dal
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This paper delves into an assessment of the impact of Turkey’s quest for status since the 2000s on changes in its foreign policy. In other words, how has Turkey’s search for status influenced its foreign policy stances since the 2000s? And can we consider the changes in Turkey’s foreign policy change transformational or transactional in essence? In this vein, this paper will make essential contributions to the existing literature on Turkey’s status-seeking strategies by using specific cases to link them to changes in Turkey’s foreign policy and assessing the extent to which they are transactional or transformational. The examination of this topic is all the more important in light of internal developments in Turkey, such as democratic backsliding and economic crisis, as well external factors such as its tense relationships with the EU, its rapprochement with Russia and China, and its increasingly proactive profile in regional crises. This paper critically assesses the pattern of Turkey’s foreign policy change from transformational and transactional perspectives.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Status, and International Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

188. The Perfect Storm: Trump and USA 2024

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Donald Trump casts a long shadow over the upcoming presidential – and congressional – elections in the United States. It is a menacing shadow, not only for what the former president could do if he returned to office but also because the political and institutional balances of the United States are threatened by the repercussions of his many legal troubles, the latest of which could even see him excluded from the race for the White House.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

189. European and Tunisian Migration Policies: A Recipe for Failure and Suffering

Author:: Refugees International
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: After several months of significant increase in irregular migration from Tunisia to Europe, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, along with several other European Union leaders, have set their sights on what they seem to believe is the best way to produce immediate results: increasing the provision of cash, equipment and training to the Tunisian security forces (TSF) to diminish the country’s booming irregular migration industry. In the last two months, the European Commission announced it wants to agree to “new anti-smuggling operational partnerships” with Tunisia[1] that would significantly scale up border controls, police and judicial cooperation, as well as cooperation with EU agencies (for example, Frontex). An “International Conference on a global alliance to counter migrant smuggling” was also convened in Brussels on 28 November.[2] As one top EU official in Tunis put it to Refugees International, “There is a strong desire by some in Europe to get the maximum amount of resources possible to the Tunisian government and security forces as soon as possible to stop the boats, now and in the future”.[3] The EU intended strategy, however, appears destined for failure, falling short of its narrow objective of suppressing irregular migration and lacking in the broader – and more important – criteria of adherence to legal commitments, human rights principles and effective overall migration policy. This approach is riddled with four primary deficiencies.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Refugees, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe, North Africa, Tunisia, and Mediterranean

190. From Interconnection to Integration: German-Italian Energy Relations and the SoutH2 Corridor

Author:: Pier Paolo Raimondi and Wolfgang Münchau
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 22 November 2023, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, signed a German-Italian Action Plan.[1] The Plan promises greater collaboration between the two countries on the biggest challenges currently facing Europe. Among these priorities is environmentally sustainable economic growth and the acceleration of climate protection. While the Action Plan is relatively terse, focusing on the establishment of fora for greater cooperation rather than providing a detailed roadmap, its energy and climate section does highlight a specific project as an example of closer cooperation: the acceleration of the completion of the so-called South-Central Corridor for the transport of hydrogen throughout Europe. This Corridor has the primary function of enabling the import of hydrogen produced in North Africa into the very core of Europe and thus to the high-demand areas of Germany and Northern Italy. One especially important part is the so-called SouthH2 Corridor, which includes a pipeline running the entire length of the Italian peninsula before connecting to Southern Germany via Austria. There are strong political and strategic arguments for a deeper energy cooperation between Italy and Germany, despite some differences.[2] Hydrogen and gas infrastructure is a key area where intensified cooperation is crucial.[3] Through the SouthH2 Corridor, the two countries have indeed expressed their willingness to collaborate precisely on hydrogen infrastructure, notably the SoutH2 Corridor. However, such cooperation cannot be limited to the infrastructural part; it must extend to a series of related issues in which both countries should seek to align their political and legal initiatives, starting from overcoming uncertainties regarding the development of hydrogen demand and the use of other net-zero technologies in both countries. In short, cooperation on infrastructure can be used as a jumping off point for a deeper collaboration on and exchange of information about their broader transition strategies. Such bilateral coordination would also contribute to the achievement of EU Green Deal objectives more broadly.
Topic:: Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Regional Integration, Pipeline, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Italy

191. Charting the Course: European Perspectives on EU–Tunisia Relations

Author:: Akram Ezzamouri, Colin Powers, and Emmanuel Cohen-Hadria
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Over the past year, a surge in migrant people arriving from Tunisia to Europe has thrust the North African country into the heart of European political agendas, sparking concerns across the continent’s capitals about its hardships and risk of economic and social collapse. The immediate policy response involved a frenzy of Euro-Tunisian diplomatic activity guided by the Italian government – itself needing to demonstrate some kind of answer to increased migratory arrivals to its shores – and culminated in the signing of the EU-Tunisia Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in July 2023.[1] The MoU, structured around five key areas of collaboration – macroeconomic stability, trade cooperation, green energy transition, people-to-people contacts, and migration and mobility – is said by so-called “Team Europe” to aim fostering a strategic and comprehensive partnership between the European Union and Tunisia. However, observers highlighted its detrimental shortsightedness, the flaws in its legal nature, as well as the necessity to allocate political and financial resources beyond migration management to truly diversify the agreement.[2] Against this backdrop, three European experts offer here considerations on challenges and prospects in EU–Tunisia relations and propose alternative avenues where cooperation can evolve, emphasising the creation of a stable and equitable political environment in both Europe and Tunisia.
Topic:: Migration, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Migrants
Political Geography:: Europe, North Africa, and Tunisia

192. Hamas’s Narrative of 7 October and the Impossibility of Ignoring It

Author:: Menachem Klein
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Hamas’ barbaric attack on 7 October and Israel’s ruthless retaliation against Hamas and Gaza Strip residents are unprecedented shocking events in their severity, repercussions and impact on both peoples’ collective memory. Only few of those Israelis who agreed that Hamas underwent a political change since 2017[1] – when it issued its Document of General Principles and Policies[2] – still maintain that view. Similarly, Western government officials who engaged in direct or indirect dialogue with Hamas claim that the crimes it committed on 7 October were driven by its adherence to a fundamentalist Islamic ideology inspired by ISIS.
Topic:: Hamas, Narrative, Collective Memory, and October 7
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

193. The State of EU-US Digital and Energy Cooperation

Author:: Federica Marconi, Wolfgang Münchau, and Irene Paviotti
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In a time of rapid technological advancements and changing energy paradigms, the European Union and the United States are trying to coordinate their efforts to navigate the complexities of an ever-evolving landscape. Transatlantic dialogues and cooperative endeavours are key mechanisms for mitigating tensions and fostering a common assessment of the opportunities and risks arising from these advancements. Critical in this regard are the problems of governance emanating from technological development and its consequences in the digital sphere as well as the delicate balance between security, competitiveness and environmental targets in the energy dimension.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Political Economy, Governance, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Digital Policy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

194. Six Takeaways from Two Years of Russia-Ukraine War

Author:: Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine from the North, East and South in order to control the whole country through direct military occupation and/or a proxy government. Moscow assumed a rapid collapse or surrender of the Ukrainian state and planned a relatively fast war of manoeuvre coupled with air assaults and/or amphibious operations to take over major cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa. Ukraine – which had prepared to some extent for a Russian invasion since 2014 – resisted and rolled back invading forces from its major cities in 2022, including from Kherson despite its illegal annexation to the Russian Federation. In late spring 2023, Kyiv launched a counter-offensive aimed at liberating territories south of Zaporizhzhia, but unfortunately Russian forces were able to hold most of the ground previously gained. A high level of attrition has now been experienced by both sides for several months, with more than half a million troops deployed by belligerents. Over the last six months, the war has turned into a bloody stalemate. It witnesses continuous and indiscriminate air campaigns by Russia – including the use of bombs, missiles and drones –, tailored raids by Ukraine on the occupied territories and across the Black Sea, and above all fierce land battles over a highly fortified frontline with a systematic, mutual shelling and massive use of drones. Two years after the beginning of the invasion, Russian armed forces control the land corridor that connects the Crimea peninsula to Donbas – two areas already directly or indirectly under Moscow influence since 2014 – and the whole Azov Sea: a region accounting for slightly less than 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory. Still, Ukraine continues to access the Black Sea and export its goods. Such an occupation has cost so far dozens of thousands of military casualties in both countries, the lives of thousands of Ukrainian civilians, as well as huge numbers of injured people and millions of displaced citizens – plus the material destruction brought by the conflict. What does this dramatic watershed for Ukraine mean for Europe as a whole? At least six takeaways can be gained for the armed forces of European countries, NATO and EU defence initiatives, with a view to deterring Moscow from further aggressions and if necessary defending Europe from them.
Topic:: Defense Industry, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

195. The Venezuela-Guyana Dispute over the Essequibo

Author:: Rafael Ramírez
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The Essequibo[1] is a territory located in the North-East of South America, between Venezuela and Guyana, with a maritime projection towards the Atlantic. It has been part of Venezuela since 1777[2] under the rule of the Spanish Empire and then as the Republic of Venezuela since 1810. The United Kingdom illegally occupied it in 1814,[3] while Venezuela was going through a long and bloody war of independence. The UK tried to formalise the dispossession of the territory with the Paris Arbitral Award of 3 October 1899,[4] in a flawed process in which Venezuela was represented by the United States. The British Empire exercised its power to obtain a ruling in its favour. After the death of the lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost in 1949, who represented Venezuela in this process, these irregularities became public knowledge.[5] In 1962, Venezuela denounced the nullity of the process before the United Nations and insisted on its historical claim.[6] On 17 February 1966, Venezuela and the UK signed the Geneva Agreement,[7] whereby the parties recognised the nullity of the Paris Arbitral Award and agreed to search for a negotiated solution. During this process, Guyana (independent since May 1966) would administer the Essequibo but without carrying out any activity that would modify the legal situation of the territory as established in Article V of the agreement, which states that “No acts or activities taking place while this Agreement is in force shall constitute a basis for asserting, supporting or denying a claim to territorial sovereignty in the territories of Venezuela or British Guiana or create any rights of sovereignty in those territories”. After four years, no progress was made in the negotiation, so on 18 June 1970, the two parties signed the Port of Spain Protocol,[8] to suspend the meetings for twelve years and to possibly use as an alternative one of the means of peaceful settlement provided for in the UN Charter.
Topic:: Oil, Territorial Disputes, History, and Borders
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, North America, Guyana, and United States of America

196. The Russia-Ukraine War and Implications for the European Defence Industry

Author:: Michele Nones
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Two years after the Russian attack on Ukraine, it is clear to everyone that the European Defence Technological and Industrial Basis (EDITB) was ill-equipped to face the consequences of a large-scale, high-intensity conflict on the Old Continent. The war changed three decades of procurement policies, production and technological trends that had previously shaped (not only) Europe’s approach to defence hardware. From the 1990s onwards, the preference for fewer, precise, highly advanced weapon systems over the massive employment of low-medium tech solutions had a double effect on the EDITB. First, it led European markets to partially consolidate, and individual companies to strive for increased efficiency. This meant not investing/maintaining redundant production sites, divesting from relatively low profitable and low demand segments such as the manufacturing of artillery shells and pursuing research and development (R&D) investment in high-end products. Second, the emphasis on technological prowess also shaped the way the European Union tried to jumpstart defence cooperation and integration among member states, first and foremost through the European Defence Fund (EDF) and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO).
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Weapons, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

197. NATO’s Posture vis-a-vis Russia: Features and Challenges

Author:: Elio Calcagno and Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The Russian war against Ukraine has had multiple impacts on NATO’s deterrence and defence stance vis-à-vis Moscow, which today presents a number of challenges to allies – particularly European ones. The 2022 Madrid summit and the resulting Strategic Concept signalled a substantial departure for the alliance in terms of focus and posture.[1] First, the new Concept represents an unequivocal return to a Russia policy based first and foremost on deterrence and defence, rather than calls for cooperation that had been typical between the end of the Cold War and the Russian illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.[2] The 2022 Concept stands in stark contrast with this period of détente and instead explicitly points to Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area”.[3] This new focus on deterrence and defence is accompanied with an enhancement of NATO’s military presence along the northern and eastern flanks.[4]
Topic:: NATO, Deterrence, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

198. The Future of the Belt and Road in Europe: How China’s Connectivity Project is Being Reconfigured across the Old Continent – and What It Means for the Euro-Atlantic Alliance

Author:: Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has entered the twilight zone in the old continent, following a deterioration of bilateral relations between the EU member states and China over the last years. Italy’s official exit from the BRI at the end of 2023 was a further blow to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy. Yet, the BRI in Europe is being reconfigured rather than being terminated. In Western Europe, the BRI is moving away from physical infrastructure projects and investment in industrial assets – the latter being increasingly protected from Chinese takeovers by both national and EU legislation – to financial and monetary connectivity. This shift is welcomed by various European actors, including some policymakers at the national level, eurozone institutions and major banks. Concurrently, most of Eastern European countries continue to promote BRI projects and seek to attract Chinese investments, suggesting that there is a two-speed Europe when it comes to China, both in terms of geography and sectors.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Currency
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

199. Challenges to Transatlantic Digital Infrastructure: An EU Perspective

Author:: Anselm Küsters, André Wolf, and Eleonora Poli
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Recent disruptions in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere highlight the integral role of digital and physical conduits such as gas pipelines, telecommunications cables and undersea data cables in maintaining European connectivity and security. Overall, the EU’s responses to emerging challenges to its digital sovereignty, particularly from China and Russia, aim to enhance the security and resilience of its digital landscape, from the Global Gateway Strategy to the Gaia-X project. However, the complexity of the submarine cable infrastructure requires a broader and more holistic assessment of the opportunities and obstacles to ensuring the uninterrupted flow of information across borders. Ultimately, a concerted transatlantic effort is needed to strengthen the backbone of Europe’s digital infrastructure against both man-made and natural adversities, thereby securing a future where sovereignty and resilience are paramount for both the EU and the US.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Politics, Infrastructure, European Union, Institutions, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

200. Transatlantic Tech Bridge: Digital Infrastructure and Subsea Cables, a US Perspective

Author:: Julia Tréhu and Megan Roberts
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The importance of digital infrastructure for global communication and connectivity is only growing. Within this varied sector, subsea cables play a central role in ensuring seamless internet traffic globally. What are the US’s strategic and economic interests in digital infrastructure, particularly subsea cables? Within the context of larger economic and geopolitical competition, US policy is multifaceted, from aiming to secure the physical security of infrastructure and guarding against espionage and technology leakage, to boosting economic competitiveness and supporting domestic firms. Overall, digital infrastructure, and undersea cables in particular, are a key element of a larger US strategy of outcompeting China. Although evaluations among allies of the relative threat posed by China and Chinese-owned digital infrastructure vary, broadly shared goals of resiliency, security, and increased connectivity mean there are potential areas for deeper EU-US cooperation, including partnerships with third countries, that align with their respective strategic visions and represent a solid base for further transatlantic coordination.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Infrastructure, Governance, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS