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52742. Integration on the Basis of Strength: China's Impact on East Asian Security
- Author:
- Wu Xinbo
- Publication Date:
- 02-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- China is perhaps the most important variable in East Asian security, not only because of its growing power but also because of the great uncertainty over its future. Therefore, to assess China's impact on regional security, one question should be tackled first: what will China look like in the future? There are three different schools of thought concerning China's future: the “implosion" school holds that China, unable to cope with a wide array of social, economic, and political challenges created by its rapid economic growth, will follow in the footsteps of the former Soviet Union and “implode" the “expansion" school argues that as China gradually builds up its material strength, Beijing will wield its weight and seek to establish hegemony in the region; and the “integration" school believes that as China's economy further merges with the world economy, Beijing's internal and external behaviors will slowly but inevitably conform to international norms, and China will become a more responsible and more cooperative member of the world community.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union
52743. Energy and Security in East Asia
- Author:
- Michael May
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This study examines the likely security consequences of the continued growth in energy consumption in East Asia, and in particular: The dimensions of that growth which are likely to have an effect on international security. The dependencies and insecurities created by that continued growth. The policy guidance that can be derived for the United States from a review of those dependencies and insecurities.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Energy Policy, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Israel and East Asia
52744. The Japan-America Security Alliance: Prospects for the Twenty-First Century
- Author:
- Daniel Okimoto
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- By almost any criterion of success—be it cost–effectiveness, risk–reward ratio, multiplier effects, or sheer longevity, the Japan America Security Alliance (JASA) stands out as one of the most successful alliances in twentieth century history. For the United States, chief architect of a global network of military relationships, JASA is arguably the most important of its many bilateral alliances. In terms of historic impact, JASA is comparable to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a multilateral alliance that restructured the European security landscape in 1949. For nearly a half–century, JASA and NATO have functioned as the bedrock on which the Cold War security systems of Asia and Europe have been constructed.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, America, Europe, and Asia
52745. The Emerging EU Tax Policy
- Author:
- Karel Lannoo
- Publication Date:
- 05-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The agreement reached in the Council of EU Finance Ministers (Ecofin) on 1 December 1997 on taxation policy can be considered as a landmark in EU direct tax harmonisation. The Council agreed on a package of measures to combat harmful tax competition in the EU, including a code of conduct on corporate taxation and elements which should enable the Commission to draft a new proposal for a directive on the taxation of income from savings. The Council invited the Taxation Policy Group to continue its work and instituted a Review Group to assess harmful tax competition. The first and, until now, last EU measures in the area of direct taxation date back to 1990. These abolished double taxation between enterprises of the same group.
- Topic:
- Government and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
52746. MILOSEVIC: DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN?
- Publication Date:
- 12-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the past few weeks the Belgrade authorities have sacked a number of key public officials. The two most prominent were security chief Stanisic and head of the army general staff Perisic. The firings triggered much speculation in the international media about the stability of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's regime. According to one interpretation, the sackings signal a fundamental weakness in government ranks, with Milosevic moving pre-emptively to oust potential rivals to his authority. Alternatively, the sackings may represent an attempt by the Yugoslav President to further consolidate his power base and to effectively rule with the backing of Yugoslavia's military and security establishments. Both Stanisic and Perisic were seen as Milosevic's opponents on several key policies, notably Belgrade's handling of relations with the Kosovo Albanians. Both Perisic and Stanisic, reportedly moderates not favouring the use of severe force against the Kosovars, have been replaced by Milosevic "yes-men" regarded as proponents of a violent resolution of the Kosovo question. If this is even in part the case, Stanisic's and Perisic's sackings do not necessary reflect a weakness in Milosevic's rule. Instead, the sackings may only signal Milosevic's resolve to return to force as a means of regional problem solving.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
52747. To Build A Peace: Recommendations For The Madrid Peace Implementation Council Meeting
- Publication Date:
- 12-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Three years after the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the country has many of the trappings usually associated with statehood such as a common flag, currency, vehicle licence plate and passport. However, these and other breakthroughs have generally required disproportionate amounts of time and effort on the part of the international community and have all too often been rammed through in spite of Bosnia's domestic institutions. Despite visible progress towards many of the goals contained within the DPA, therefore, Bosnia's peace still gives the impression that it is built on shifting sands. Moreover, although critical to the peace process, the scale of the international presence, which increasingly resembles a protectorate, is in some ways counter-productive to Bosnia's long-term future. On the one hand, domestic institutions and politicians have to a large extent given up responsibility for governing their own country. On the other, the massive international stake has led key international players to declare the peace process a success, irrespective of how it is actually evolving. The international presence is also extremely expensive, costing some $9 billion a year.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
52748. Change in the Offing: The Shifting Political Scene in Croatia
- Publication Date:
- 12-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has dominated Croatian political life since multi-party elections in April 1990 brought an end to communist rule. The HDZ has been a broad movement rather than a modern political party, representing a wide range of political views and interests, united behind its leader, President Franjo Tudjman, in the aim of achieving Croatian sovereignty and independence. In 1990-91, large areas of the country were taken over by rebellious Croatian Serbs, with support from Belgrade. Thus for most of the period of HDZ rule in Croatia, large chunks of the country remained outside Zagreb's control, and the overriding priority was to restore Croatia's territorial integrity, a goal which was finally achieved in January 1998. Croatia also became enmeshed in the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) as, supported by Croatia, the Bosnian Croats fought their erstwhile Bosniac allies in 1993-94. The obsession of Tudjman and the hard-line Herzegovina lobby in the HDZ with the dream of eventually detaching chunks of Bosnian territory and joining them with Croatia has been a persistent cause of international pressure on Croatia, as well as of division within Croatian politics.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia
52749. Breaking the Logjam: Refugee Returns to Croatia
- Publication Date:
- 11-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As winter approaches in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), conditions for refugee returns to that country become increasingly difficult. In neighbouring Croatia, by contrast, the weather is generally milder so that, given political will, refugees should be able to return to their homes throughout the winter months. Moreover, the Croatian government is organising a reconstruction conference next month, at which it hopes to obtain pledges of international support to help rebuild its war-damaged country. Many refugees from Croatia are Serbs – of whom some 300,000 now reside in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Republika Srpska – who fled previously Serb-held regions of Croatia in the wake of the Croatian Army's 1995 military offensives.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Migration, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Croatia
52750. Sandzak: Calm For Now
- Publication Date:
- 11-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Sandzak is an area within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that borders Serbia and Montenegro. It has a multicultural, multiethnic history and a majority population that is Muslim. Since the rise of Serbian strong-man Slobodan Milosevic to political power the majority Muslims have been the targets of coercion. For the time being, the major issue is Milosevic's continuing repression of human and political rights. Stating that, however, is not concluding that the area is entirely immune from the effects of a serious and full-blown military crisis.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro
52751. Intermediate Sovereignty As A Basis For Resolving The Kosovo Crisis
- Publication Date:
- 11-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The International Crisis Group has decided to publish the report, prepared by the Public International Law and Policy Group, as a contribution to the debate on the future status of Kosovo. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position of the International Crisis Group.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
52752. 1998 Elections In Macedonia
- Publication Date:
- 10-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Macedonians go to the polls on 18 October 1998 in the first of two rounds of voting to elect 120 members of the country's parliament. The forthcoming poll is Macedonia's third general election since the disintegration of one-party communist rule. Moreover, it takes place in the shadow of ethnic violence between Serbs and ethnic Albanians in the neighbouring Serbian province of Kosovo and political instability in neighbouring Albania. Although Macedonia has managed to avoid the violent conflict which has afflicted the rest of the former Yugoslavia, its experience of democracy has so far been mixed. Politics is divided along ethnic lines and the last multi-party elections in 1994 were marred by accusations of fraud with two major parties boycotting the second round of voting.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania
52753. Doing Democracy A Disservice: 1998 Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Publication Date:
- 09-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The stakes in Bosnia's forthcoming elections, the fifth internationally-supervised poll since the end of the war, could not be higher, for Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) and also for the international community. Having invested enormous financial and political capital in the peace process, the international community expects a return on its investment. That is why leading international figures including US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright have entered the Bosnian political fray, urging Bosnians to back parties which "support Dayton" and threatening to withdraw aid if they do not. The elections will bring some changes so the event will be hailed as a triumph. However, they will not lay the ground for a self-sustaining peace process. That can only be achieved by political reform and, in particular, a redesign of the electoral system to guarantee Bosnians ethnic security.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
52754. Whither Bosnia?
- Publication Date:
- 09-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite considerable progress since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) in November 1995 in consolidating the peace and rebuilding normal life in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), international efforts do not appear to be achieving the goal of establishing Bosnia as a stable, functioning state, able at some point to run its own affairs without the need for continued international help. Peace, in the narrow sense of an absence of war, has been maintained; progress has been made in establishing freedom of movement throughout the country; joint institutions, including the state presidency, parliamentary assemblies and ministries, as well as a joint command for the armed forces of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation), have been established.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
52755. Kosovo's Long Hot Summer: Briefing on military, humanitarian and political developments in Kosovo
- Publication Date:
- 09-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- During the past six months, Serbia's southern, predominantly Albanian province of Kosovo has emerged from international obscurity to become the world's most reported conflict zone. That said, the history of ethnic animosity in this contested land, the complexity of competing Serb and Albanian claims and the speed with which the fighting has escalated make it difficult to keep up with the events, let alone analyse and try to understand them. What had, on 1 January 1998, been a long-standing ethnic Albanian political aspiration, namely an independent Kosovo, had evolved, by 1 March 1998, into the military objective of a popular insurrection and had by, 1 July 1998, become part of the cause of an impending humanitarian catastrophe with hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the fighting.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania
52756. Impunity In Drvar
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Croat extremists put Drvar into the spotlight in April 1998 with murders and riots against returning Serbs and the international community. It was the most serious outbreak of violence in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) for more than a year. Before the riots, Drvar – whose pre-war population was 97 per cent Serb – offered some cause for optimism: more Serbs had returned there than to any other region of the Federation outside of Sarajevo, and Serbs were looking to Drvar to help them assess the possibilities and risks for further return to the Federation and Croatia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia
52757. Changing Course?: Implications of the divide in Bosnian Croat politics
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The reintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has been consistently obstructed by the main Bosnian Croat party, the Croat Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZBiH). The HDZBiH is dominated by hard-liners who emphasise the consolidation of a pure Croat-inhabited territory centred on western Herzegovina, with the eventual aim of seceding and joining Croatia. This policy has received support from hard-line elements in Croatia, including the president, Franjo Tudjman.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Migration, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia
52758. The Albanian Question In Macedonia: Implications of the Kosovo Conflict for Inter-Ethnic Relations in Macedonia
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As the one former Yugoslav republic which has managed to keep itself out of the wars of Yugoslav dissolution, Macedonia has often appeared to outsiders as a beacon of hope in the Balkans. However, inter-ethnic relations in the young state -- in particular those between ethnic Albanians, who make up at least 23 percent of the population, and ethnic Macedonians -- are poor. Moreover, as fighting between ethnic Albanian separatists and the Serbian police and military escalates in the neighbouring, southern Serbian province of Kosovo, relations between communities within Macedonia are deteriorating alarmingly. As a result, Macedonia and its entire population, irrespective of their ethnic origins, stand to be among the greatest long-term losers of the Kosovo conflict. Moreover, in the event of fighting and large numbers of refugees spilling over from Kosovo -- an entirely plausible eventuality unless the killing is halted -- Macedonia is poorly prepared and the country's very existence may be imperilled.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Education, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania
52759. A View from Tirana: The Albanian Dimension of Kosovo Crisis
- Publication Date:
- 07-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Relations between Albanians from Albania proper and their ethnic kin over the border in Kosovo are complex. Despite obvious linguistic and cultural ties, the political division of the past 80 years and Albania's isolation during the communist period have caused the two communities to evolve in a very different fashion. Moreover, the arrival of Kosovo Albanians in Albania in recent years and their influence in some unsavoury spheres of the economy have caused resentment among Albanians from Albania proper, most of whom are too preoccupied with the daily struggle for existence to devote much time or thought to national questions. The upsurge in violence in Kosovo and the influx of several thousand Kosovo Albanian refugees have, nevertheless, reminded Albanians of the links between the communities and sympathy for their ethnic kin in Kosovo is especially strong in the border areas among the Ghegs, the northern Albanians.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Albania, and Tirana
52760. The Konjic Conundrum: Why Minorities have Failed to Return to Model Open City
- Publication Date:
- 06-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 1 July 1997 Konjic became the first municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) to be officially recognised as an Open City by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). At the time, the Open Cities Initiative was supposed to form the backbone of UNHCR's approach to minority return. To obtain Open City status Konjic had to demonstrate a willingness to accept the return of minority displaced persons. In return, the UNHCR endeavoured to reward the municipality with additional funding. However, despite large-scale financial assistance and although close to 2,000 minority families have formally registered their intent to return, reliable sources estimate that fewer than 300 minority returnees have made their way home to Konjic since the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) brought the Bosnian war to a halt.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and United Nations