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59251. Cyprus after the Failure of the Annan-Plan

Author:
Jan Asmussen
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
On 24 April 2004 Greek and Turkish Cypriots decided in separate simultaneous referenda on whether or not Cyprus would join the European Union on 1 May 2004. While 64.91% of Turkish Cypriots accepted the Annan Plan, an overwhelming majority of 75.83% of Greek Cypriots rejected the UN blueprint. The extent of the Greek Cypriot “Oxi”(No) brought an end to a large scale effort by the United Nations Secretary-General to broker a final deal for a solution of the “oldest item continuously on the peacemaking agenda”.1 Apart from the UN, the United States (Special envoy: Thomas Weston), the United Kingdom (Special envoy: (Sir David Hannay) and the European Union have constantly observed and tried to facilitate the process. Consequently, there has been a great deal of disappointment among those engaged in finding a solution. The most outspoken comment came from EU Enlargement Commissioner, Günter Verheugen who on 21 April declared that he felt “cheated” by the Greek Cypriot Government. Kofi Annan’s latest report clearly puts most of the blame for the failure on the Greek Cypriot leader, Tassos Papadopoulos, and his government and stresses that “if the Greek Cypriots are ready to share power and prosperity with the Turkish Cypriots in a federal structure based on political equality, this needs to be demonstrated, not just in word, but in action.”3 Apparently, the international community never took the possibility of such an outcome into consideration. As a result, both the EU and the UN concentrated on pressuring the Turkish Cypriot side and Turkey to accept the UN Plan. At the same time no efforts were made to secure a more positive attitude by the Greek Cypriot leadership. Today the international community is in a stage of shock and has clearly not developed an alternative plan to cope with the new situation.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Minorities, European Union, Leadership, Ethnicity, Diversity, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus

59252. A New Challenge for Kosovo’s Emerging Democracy. November 2004.

Author:
Adrian Zeqiri
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
On 23 October 2004, elections for the central institutions of Kosovo were held for the second time. According to CoE and OSCE observers, the elections were held in a free and fair environment and there were no irregularities in the process. Shortly after the publication of the election results, LDK (the largest party) and AAK, (a party stemming from former KLA structures) announced their decision to form a coalition government. This decision points to a number of new factors that may shape future political developments in Kosovo, set against a backdrop of urgent Standards implementation and future status negotiations. The NATO-led intervention in 1999 established the territory as a UN protectorate, under charge of the international community in all major spheres of life. Since then Kosovo has seen a gradual empowerment of local institutions over a period of four elections, both municipal and central. The 2004 central elections were organized largely by local institutions, reflecting the ability of Kosovo actors to successfully adopt responsibility for the running of the territory. Unlike the previous broad-based coalition government emerging from the 2001 elections, the recent agreement between LDK and AAK sees parties taking up positions of power and opposition within the new assembly. This constellation presents a new challenge for the fragile political environment of Kosovo. The international community may now be faced with a more confrontational political landscape and the more politicized Albanian politicians will be tested to function within this new arrangement. This report serves to analyse the election results and their implications for the formation of a Kosovo assembly. It will further discuss the impact of these developments in the current and upcoming intensive political period in Kosovo.
Topic:
Development, Minorities, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe and Kosovo

59253. The Iraqi Insurgency & Iraq Security Force Development

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Progress toward a stable peace in Iraq and the withdrawal of US troops begins with the painful recognition that America's recent troubles are largely self-inflicted. This is due principally to the adoption of mission objectives that far exceed what is necessary or pragmatic.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East

59254. Radical Departure: Toward A Practical Peace in Iraq

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
The key to enabling total US troop withdrawal from Iraq within 400 days is achieving a political accord with Sunni leaders at all levels and with Iraq's neighbors - especially Syria and Iran. The proximal aim would be to immediately lower the level of conflict inside Iraq by constricting both active and passive support for the insurgency, inside and outside the country. This would allow the United States to shift resources to the training mission and to adopt other de-escalatory measures - most importantly: a withdrawal time line. The strategic price of this diplomatic initiative would be a return to self-governance in Sunni areas, a guaranteed level of representation for these areas in the national assembly, an end to broad-brush measures of de-Baathification, an amnesty for most indigenous insurgents and for most former Baathists, and a de-escalation of the US confrontation with Syria and Iran regarding a range of issues. In conjunction with these diplomatic initiatives, the United States would announce a tentative time line for withdrawal of its troops from Iraq -- associated with training milestones. Also: US forces would end major offensive sweeps inside the country, adopt a defensive posture, and shift the emphasis of their activity to training Iraqi security forces. Finally: the Iraqi government would re-activate portions of the old army -- partly as a confidence-building measure, but also in order to (i) rob insurgent organizations of their recruiting base, (ii) augment the power of the new Iraqi security forces, and (iii) produce a better ethnic balance in the new forces (which are currently dominated by Kurds and Shiites). As new forces increase in capacity, US forces would be removed, further reducing a stimulus of insurgent action. Four hundred days - 57 weeks - is sufficient time to complete several Iraqi training cycles, including field exercises for many units at the battalion and brigade levels. Some division level training also can occur. Given sufficient resources (24,000 training personnel), 100,000 Iraqi security personnel can receive remedial training and another 80,000 new personnel can be trained and exercised during this period. Together with the full provision of all appropriate equipment, this development effort can yield Iraqi security forces that are several times more capable than those it controls in mid-2005. After thirteen months, the only foreign military assets remaining in Iraq would be a small monitoring and training mission with a security detail: less than 10,000 foreign civilian and military personnel in all. US troops should constitute no more than one-third of the military component -- that is, approximately 2,000 troops. This mission should be conducted under a three-year UN mandate and joint NATO-international command. In addition, the United States might maintain a 25,000-person rapid reaction task force in the region, but outside either Iraq or Saudi Arabia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

59255. Disappearing the Dead: Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Idea of a "New Warfare

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Among those endeavors that a state or a people may undertake, none is more terrible than war. None has repercussions more far-reaching or profound. Thus, a grave responsibility to one's own nation and to the global community attends any decision to go to war. And part of this responsibility is to estimate and gauge the effects of war, including the collateral damage and civilian casualties that it incurs.
Topic:
Defense Policy and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Central Asia, and Middle East

59256. U.S. Korea Security Alliance in Transition: A U.S. Perspective

Author:
Michael McDevitt
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The US-ROK security relationship is in transition. It is a transition that started some time ago, in 1989 to be precise, with the end of the Cold War. What we are experiencing today is simply the latest, and perhaps most public manifestation, of a process that has been gathering momentum since the early days of the first Bush Administration.
Political Geography:
United States and Korea

59257. U.S.-Korea Security Alliance in Transition: A ROK Perspective

Author:
Jae-Kap Ryoo
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Is the ROK-U.S. alliance relationship in crisis or at a turning point where it can be transformed into a more resilient alliance? Is there simply a semantic debate raising questions at the moment or is the alliance suffering a real crisis? Most observers worry about the alliance's future, and many experts consider that the alliance relationship is in a transitional period: to be redefined and restructured to meet new requirements for the 21st century on the Korean peninsula and in the Asia-Pacific region more generally. At present, the Republic of Korea and the United States need to prepare for the future. In light of various challenges to their security alliance, future prospects do not seem bright. This article is an attempt to do three things: to analyze various challenges to the ROK-U.S. alliance relationship and to consider the strategic implications for the future of the alliance in the Asia-Pacific region; to explore more effective ways to develop a new relationship for the 21st century; and to search for a more appropriate method to make the alliance “unique” in the Asia-Pacific while remaining comparable with the U.S.-Japan alliance and other treaty relationships.
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Korea

59258. Changing Inter-Korean Relations and the Impact on the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Author:
Choong Nam Kim
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
With the end of the Cold War, since the 1990s Inter-Korean relations, a lasting reminder of that Cold War, have undergone drastic changes, especially during and after the Kim Dae Jung administration. Peace and stability in Northeast Asia depend on what happens on the Korean peninsula. How Seoul's North Korea policy evolves is of great interest to its allies and will likely impact South Korea's stature in the regional strategic order. In particular, the U.S.-ROK relationship can improve or deteriorate based on the diplomatic direction that South Korea takes with North Korea.
Political Geography:
United States, South Korea, North Korea, Korea, and Northeast Asia

59259. The Changing Role Of China On The Korean Peninsula

Author:
Samuel S. Kim
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
There has been much talk lately about the changing role of China on the Korean peninsula. China's proactive diplomacy during the second standoff over nuclear weapons between the United States and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) stands in marked contrast to the risk-averse “who me?” posture it held during the conflict of the early 1990s that culminated in the U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework on October 21, 1994. In that earlier conflict, the Chinese opted to sit on the sidelines with the familiar refrain that this was a dispute to be resolved bilaterally between Washington and Pyongyang. In the latest (second) nuclear standoff, China has played the primary catalytic role of facilitating bi-trilateral (DPRK-U.S.-China) and multilateral six-nation dialogues among all the Northeast Asian concerned states, drawing North Korea into a sui generis regional multilateral setting that it had previously sworn off in a quest for bilateral negotiations with the United States. In this process, the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have increasingly come into virtual geopolitical alignment, in tandem with the straining and fracturing of the ROK-US alliance.
Political Geography:
United States, China, Washington, Asia, Korea, and Pyongyang

59260. China's "Peaceful Rise:" Implications for US Interests in Korea

Author:
Robert Sutter
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Beginning in 2003, Chinese leaders began a new stage in China's efforts to define China's approach toward its neighboring countries and what China's approach meant for the United States and US interests in Asia and the world. Premier Wen Jiabao addressed the topic of China's peaceful rise in a speech in New York on December 9, 2003. Despite such high level pronouncements, the exact purpose and scope of the new emphasis on China's “peaceful rise” remained less than clear to Chinese and foreign specialists. Consultations in May 2004 with 50 Chinese officials and non-government specialists closely involved in this issue helped to clarify the state of play in Chinese decision-making circles regarding China's peaceful rise and what it meant for China's approach to Korea and the rest of Asia and for US interests and policy in the region.
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Korea

59261. The Impact of North Korea's WMD Programs on Regional Security and the ROK-U.S. Alliance

Author:
Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr.
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
While the use of weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear programs and missiles has been part of Pyongyang's brinkmanship strategy almost since the very beginning of the Kim Chong-il era, the current string of events that have occurred since the fall of 2002 is unique. Instead of the world and the region having concerns over the nuclear facility at Yongbyon, the situation now exists where North Korea has the potential for weaponizing, using, and proliferating two nuclear programs - both plutonium based, and the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) program which came into existence during the 1990s.
Political Geography:
United States and North Korea

59262. Beyond Electoral Politics: US-ROK Alliance and the Six-Party Talks on North Korea

Author:
Young Whan Kihl
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The United States - ROK Mutual Defense Treaty, commemorating its half-century mark on October 1, 2003, was hailed as one of the successful, long-standing, military alliances that the U.S. had entered into with its allies in the post-World War II era. On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Korean War, there was a wide-ranging commemorative community program and activities throughout the United States, to honor Korean War veterans and their family members.
Political Geography:
United States, North Korea, and Korea

59263. The Impact of the 2004 National Assembly Elections on the Korean Economy

Author:
Sunwoong Kim
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
According to an opinion survey reported in chosun-Ilbo on May 10, 2004, 79.3 percent of the general public and 90.2% of experts viewed the existing economic situation in Korea as a crisis. However, the two groups' views differed substantially when they were asked how the 17th National Assembly Elections (NAE) held on April 15, 2004, would affect the economy. While the majority of the general public (56.8%) stated that the elections would have a positive effect on the economy, 48.7% of the experts said that the elections would have a negative effect. What explains such divergent views between the general public and the experts?
Political Geography:
Korea

59264. Social-Cultural Changes in South Korea since 1991: An American View

Author:
Edward J. Button
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
You can take the Korean out of Korea, but you cannot take Korea out of the Korean. This saying implies that experts on Korean affairs with Korean ethnicity, regardless of their citizenship, regardless of how many generations ago their families immigrated to other countries, may evaluate situations through Korean eyes and be biased towards traditional Korean points of view. Even though an increasing number of non-Koreans are becoming involved in the study of Korean affairs, which is a good sign for global awareness of the importance of Korea in world affairs, these individuals, of necessity, spend limited time in Korea and interact mostly with other professionals with similar interests and ideas. For these reasons, the author, who has lived and worked continuously in Korea since 1982, may be able to describe and discuss changes in Korean society as seen through non-Korean eyes.
Political Geography:
America, South Korea, and Korea

59265. An Action Agenda For Enhancing the United Nations Program on Counter-Terrorism

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
This report provides an independent assessment of the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC). It coincides with the “revitalization” process in the CTC following adoption of Security Council Resolution 1535 (2004) that led to the creation of the Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED). The following findings and recommendations reflect the project's intended goal of ensuring that changes to the CTC support structure are undertaken in a manner that strengthens the successful elements of the committee's work to date, while effectively meeting the challenges ahead.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and United Nations

59266. Peace-building and Development in Guatemala and Northern Ireland

Author:
Charles A. Reilly
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
Guatemala and Northern Ireland signed historic peace accords in 1996 and 1998 respectively. This paper, part of a longer term project comparing lessons learned from implementation in the two cases, focuses especially on Guatemala, making some middle range peace/development policy recommendations for that country's recently elected government and civil society organizations. Despite very different economic development levels, both countries are divided, find peace implementation difficult, and are heavily influenced by outside actors - including their own diaspora. Guatemala is deeply divided internally along class, race and ethnic lines, with more than 15% of its population in the U.S. (and close affinity with Mayan peoples who live across the Mexican border). Ireland too is divided along religious and ethnic lines, a border crosses the island. The North is linked politically to the United Kingdom, with social ties to emigrant populations there, in the south and in the United States. Guatemala, like its Central American neighbor El Salvador, embarked on peace-building with UN oversight, while the Northern Irish had United Kingdom and Irish Republic support for making peace. (Without pre-judging an eventual political resolution of the two Irelands, I'll refer to both Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, since that peace process, like Guatemala's, necessarily transcends borders). When compared to Northern Ireland, Guatemalan religious differences are minor, and religious leaders, Catholic, Protestant and Mayan played key roles in the peace process. Emigration figures large in both settings, as do many centuries of colonial or imperial domination. Both countries have struggled with post-accord violence which has reached alarming levels in Guatemala. Peace and development are inseparable - hence I emphasize growth with equity issues that are cause and consequence of both conflicts.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Central America, Mexico, and North Ireland

59267. The War in Iraq: Justified as Humanitarian Intervention?

Author:
Kenneth Roth
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
I am particularly honored to give a lecture in Fr. Ted's name. For the longest time you have been one of my heroes for your vision about the role of civil society in addressing global security issues. I often think of Human Rights Watch as part of the tradition that led to the Kroc Institute and the various institutions that you have built at Notre Dame. To me, these institutions represent a determination to see civil society play this important role, not simply by picketing or demonstrating, but by bringing the highest levels of academic achievement, deep concern with ethics, a commitment to activism, and a healthy distrust of government monopoly in these important areas. I feel proud to share in the tradition that you have established so beautifully here at Notre Dame and privileged to give this lecture today.
Topic:
International Relations, Human Welfare, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

59268. In Liberty's Shadow: US Detention of Asylum Seekers in the Era of Homeland Security

Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
When I set foot on American soil, I had finally reached the land of liberty, the land of peace, and I had a strong feeling of gratitude toward the Most High who had allowed me to escape death and to reach a life of freedom…. After completing my statement [at the airport]…[an] officer arrived with handcuffs. Then he handcuffed my wrists, but I sincerely thought this was a case of mistaken identity. Later on he explained to me that this was the established procedure. We left for [a county] prison. They put me in a cell where it was really cold, and I had no blanket with me. The idea of a land of liberty was beginning to be cast into serious doubt in my mind.
Topic:
Security, Government, Human Rights, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and America

59269. The European Union Code of Conduct on Arms Exports: Improving the Annual Report

Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The 1998 European Union Code of Conduct on Arms Exports is a political agreement designed to set common standards across the EU for the export of military equipment. Under its provisions, all EU member states have agreed to apply a standard set of criteria to assess applications for licences for the export of military equipment. Member states have also agreed to share information, and in certain cases consult in advance, on their arms export licensing decisions. One of the main tools for assessing how states interpret and apply the EU Code of Conduct is the Annual Report according to Operative Provision 8 of the European Union Code of Conduct on Arms Exports, which has been published in the autumn of each year since 1999. The aim of the Annual Report is to enable member governments, parliaments and civil society to understand how the EU Code is being interpreted at the national level by each EU member state. The report describes how the EU Code has been implemented, discusses future measures to improve implementation and provides statistical data for the previous calendar year on licences granted for the export of military equipment, actual arms exports and denials of export licences.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, and Terrorism

59270. SIPRI Yearbook 2004: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Pocket-size Summary Edition)

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The SIPRI Yearbook has been published since 1969. It brings together objective data and state-of-the-art analysis, offered by SIPRI's own staff and other experts, on all major aspects of arms control, peace and security. The 2004 edition takes as its connecting theme the impact of the Iraq crisis in many different dimensions of international security, but it also highlights important trends arising elsewhere, in both geographical and functional areas. The Yearbook is also published in Arabic, Chinese, Russian and Ukrainian editions. This condensed version is available on the Internet in English, French, German, Spanish and Swedish at http://editors.sipri.org/recpubs.html.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Middle East

59271. Sizing and Shaping European Armed Forces Lessons and Considerations from the Nordic Countries

Author:
William Hopkinson
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
There are many threats in the current security agenda that call for collaborative international action: they include environmental degradation, organized crime, disease, natural disaster, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Sometimes collaboration is political or diplomatic, and sometimes it is economic. In other cases, security needs will require either the direct application of force or the use of organized, disciplined groups that may ultimately have to use force to protect themselves and others. Javier Solana, the European Union (EU) High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), pointed out: 'We need to develop a strategic culture that fosters early, rapid, and when necessary robust intervention. We should think particularly of operations involving both military and civilian capabilities'.
Topic:
Defense Policy and NATO
Political Geography:
Europe

59272. Monitoring the presidential debates: Post-debate panels did not focus on hard issues

Author:
Senja Post
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Media Tenor International
Abstract:
After the third debate, network and cable news commentators and their expert guests differed in their opinions on who did better, after having been largely in agreement after the first and second debate. Media Tenor's Slant -o- meter analyzed the commentary following the debate on six TV channels. While ABC and NBC were moderate in their ratings of Kerry and Bush, CBS, FOX, CNN and PBS commentators were more vocal about their dislikes for one or the other of the candidates. Fox News presented the most favorable coverage of George W. Bush's performance and the most negative comments on John Kerry. While positive reports on Bush exceeded negative reports by almost 43%, the coverage of Kerry had an overall negative balance of 15%. Similarly, PBS's commentary featured 6.6% more positive than negative statements on Bush, while , on balance, comments on Kerry were 13% more negative.
Topic:
Government, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

59273. Monitoring the Presidential Debates: Real-time Content Analysis Bush and Kerry Score with Clear-Cut Proposals

Author:
Senja Post, Markus Rettich, and Roland Schatz
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Media Tenor International
Abstract:
In tonight's TV debate, neither of the candidates managed to gain an upper hand in the overall discussion. There were no significant surprises on how each candidate views the issues that were addressed. Based on Bob Schieffer's excellent moderation, the debate was able to create a very clear image (almost 80% of the content was issue–focused) on the different approaches Kerry and Bush will use in tackling challenges in healthcare, economics, social issues and domestic security.
Topic:
Government, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

59274. Monitoring the Presidential Debates: How the debates Affected the Candidates' Image on TV News

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Media Tenor International
Abstract:
Compared to last week's commentary, ABC increased its positive coverage of Bush, NBC was more balanced and CBS reduced the level of positive commentary on Kerry. CNN again rated both candidates positively (but Kerry much more so than Bush) while PBS broadcast a more negative evaluation of Bush and Kerry. On the whole, Kerry came across in a more positive light, but is very interesting to look at the difference between the major networks vs. cable networks and the public broadcasters. On NBC and CBS, Kerry was seen as the clear 'winner.' In the other news outlets, both candidates were rated either positively or negatively.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

59275. Report on First 2004 Presidential Debate

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Media Tenor International
Abstract:
And the winner is . . . Kerry needed a clear victory in the first TV debate to gain momentum. This was not apparent. The burden on proof was clearly on Kerry to attack Bush's reputation and turn the line of argument to his favor. But the incumbent was equally vigorous in pointing out his achievements – in Iraq, in his support for the troops and in the fight against terrorism. Bush successfully cornered Kerry on flip–flopping issue. Kerry's explanations of his policy standpoints and voting records ultimately proved ineffective in countering Bush's charges of inconsistency. It was Kerry's goal to present himself as a viable alternative – this could not be seen. Therefore: a draw. Which in the end helps Bush, not Kerry.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

59276. Crude Nukes on the Loose?

Author:
Morton Bremer Mærli
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This thesis assesses the threat of nuclear terrorism and identifies strategies for diminishing the risk of such incidents. Never before have the material, the technology, the know-how, and, perhaps, the motivations needed to perform acts of nuclear terrorism been more exploitable.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, and Terrorism

59277. The Challenge of Poor Governance and Corruption

Author:
Jens Chr.1 Andvig
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper is the author's so-called “Opponent paper” to Susan Rose-Ackerman's proposals for good governance and anti-corruption policies at the Copenhagen Consensus 2004 meeting 24–28 May. There the most promising anti-corruption policies had to compete with other best policies at other fields such as fight against AIDS, malaria, hunger prevention, and so on. He argues that while corruption and governance problems are important and may prevent any other kind of policy to succeed, no really effective anti-corruption policy has so far been proposed, and if it was, we wouldn't know that it did. Hence, it would be unreasonable to make a strong claim for anti-corruption projects against their competitors.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

59278. The Inferior Performance of State Owned Enterprises: Is it due to Ownership or Market Structure?

Author:
Leo A. Grünfeld, Eskil Goldeng, and Gabriel R. G. Benito
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
We analyze differences in performance between private companies (PCs) and state owned enterprises (SOEs), with an emphasis on the effects of market structure. We use a panel covering all registered companies during the 1990s in Norway, a country where SOEs play an important role in regular markets. Return on assets as well as costs measures are used as measures of performance in models that investigate markets where SOEs and PCs actually compete with each other. Although market shares and concentration affect performance, ownership identity still explains most of the inferior performance among SOEs.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Norway

59279. Majority Rules and Incentives—International voting affects domestic policies

Author:
Bård Harstad
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A “majority rule” defines the number of club-members that must approve a policy proposed to replace the status quo. Since the majority rule thus dictates the extent to which winners must compensate losers, it also determines the incentives to invest in order to become a winner of anticipated projects. If the required majority is large, the members invest too little because of a hold-up problem, if it is small, the members invest too much in order to become a member of the majority coalition. To balance these opposing forces, the majority rule should increase in the level of minority protection (or enforcement capacity) and the project's value but decrease in the ex post heterogeneity. Strategic delegation turns out to be sincere exclusively under this majority rule. Externalities can be internalized by adjusting the rule. With heterogeneity in size or initial conditions, votes should be appropriately weighted or double majorities required. The analysis provides recommendations for Europe's future constitution.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

59280. Uniform or Different Policies

Author:
Bård Harstad
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
I analyse the negotiation between two countries, or regions, that are trying to make an agreement in order to internalize externalities. Local preferences are local information, but reluctance to participate in the agreement is signaled by delay. Conditions are derived for when it is efficient to restrict the attention to policies that are uniform across regions – with and without side payments – and when it is optimal to forbid side payments in the negotiations. While policy differentiation and side payments let the policy be tailed to local conditions, they create conflicts between the regions and thus delay. If political centralization implies uniformity, as is frequently assumed in the federalism literature, the results describe when centralization outperforms decentralized cooperation. But the results also provide a foundation for this uniformity assumption and characterize when it is likely to hold.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

59281. EU Security Policy: Contrasting Rationalism and Social Constructivism

Author:
Pernille Rieker
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
There are two very different stories that can be told about EU security policy during 2003. On the one hand, some argue that the deep division among important EU countries in relation to the Iraq war is a final confirmation of the absence of an EU security policy. On the other hand, some argue that the last year has been a year of considerable intensity in relation to EU security policy–despite the fact that EU cannot yet be characterised as a unitary actor. One of the reasons for these very different stories is that they are based on fundamentally different ideas and theories about the basic mechanisms in international relations. In this paper Pernille Rieker will contrast how two different approaches, namely Rationalistism and Social constructivism would analyse EU security policy. The paper starts with a short presentation of the meta-theoretical foundation of these approaches. The second part discusses how each of them views the conditions for multilateral cooperation and security. In the third part these perspectives on EU security policy will be discussed and some empirical data that support each of them will be presented. Finally, the paper ends on a discussion concerning whether these approaches must be seen as being alternative or complementary approaches.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

59282. Export Credits and the Environment

Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Official export credit agencies (ECAs) support exports, much of which support goes to emerging economies, by providing loan guarantees, export credit insurance and direct loans. In 2002, the amount of business covered by such support was approximately USD 50 billion. Typically, officially supported export credits are provided to enable recipient countries to fund major capital goods and projects exported by the home country of the ECA, such as roads, mining, railways or airports.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance

59283. Economic Survey of the Czech Republic, 2004

Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Following accession to the European Union the big issue for the Czech Republic is to strengthen growth prospects. Growth potential at present is somewhat above 3 per cent, implying a moderate pace of catch-up to living standards in the EU and elsewhere. There is room for greater ambition in growth performance, and it is welcome to see this reflected in the programme of the new Czech government. This Survey underscores four main challenges. Fiscal consolidation is the dominant challenge for macroeconomic policy, and is not only necessary to cope with ageing and to bring down the tax burden but is also needed to fulfil euro-area entry conditions. A welcome programme of fiscal reform has begun, including proposals for a system of multi-year aggregate spending ceilings and significant expenditure cuts. However, to date, mainly revenue-raising measures have been implemented while the full impact of expenditure measures is yet to be realised. The attempt to secure broad political consensus on pension reform is commendable, but it must be underscored that whatever reform is finally implemented, it will have to bring considerable fiscal savings. Health-care reform also has to deliver savings, but concrete proposals have yet to be made. To facilitate assessment of the true fiscal position, extra-budgetary funds need to be more fully integrated in mainstream government budgeting procedures. Also, with the further decentralisation of public services, the need for good budgeting practices and accountability in regional and municipal governments is all the more important. The Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance have formulated a transparent strategy for entering the euro area, that foresees minimising the time spent in ERM II. Annual reports will assess the economic conditions in relation to the Maastricht Criteria and a request to enter ERM II will only being made if the probability of a positive first assessment by the EU authorities is high. The choice of a 3 per cent inflation target for the run-up to euro entry is justifiable on medium-term grounds. However there may be some difficulty communicating the consistency of this target with the Maastricht criterion for price stability. The Czech authorities should therefore pay close attention to how the Maastricht criteria are interpreted and applied by the European Commission and the ECB and adjust their communication strategy accordingly. Most of the catch-up in living standards will have to come from boosting productivity growth. This means swifter re-allocation of resources across firms as well as stronger in-firm productivity growth. While the Czech Republic is a strong competitor for attracting foreign direct investment, policy towards poorly performing firms and business start-ups has problems, slowing down the exit and entry of firms. Bankruptcy procedures are cumbersome, often long and usually end up in liquidation, with asset stripping not uncommon. Reforms have long-since been planned, and it is welcome that new legislation looks finally set to go ahead. The legislation aims at strengthening the role of creditors, speeding up proceedings and allowing composition to play a bigger role. Likewise, efforts to streamline business registration are welcome and should be implemented as soon as possible. The general business climate is also damaged by issues in network industry competition, as some services, notably internet, are expensive in international comparison. Mobility between jobs and regions is weak. Administrative extensions of collective wage agreements, strict employment protection legislation (EPL) on individual dismissals, rent control, severe poverty traps (particularly for families) and a high tax wedge have contributed to considerable long-term unemployment. The Roma population is hit especially hard in this respect. Migration is to some extent mitigating the labour-market rigidities with Slovaks filling skilled vacancies and other eastern Europeans (mainly Ukrainians) taking up unskilled jobs that are unattractive for locals. Tackling the unemployment problem requires measures across a wide front, but most notably social benefit reform is needed along with reduction in the tax wedge as well as easing of EPL. The widespread social and economic exclusion of the Roma needs more attention, particularly in the education system. A more open immigration policy is needed to address immediate issues such as the inconsistency between granting work permits as well as for better alignment of immigrants' skills with those needed on the Czech labour market.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Czech Republic

59284. Competition Law and Policy in the Russian Federation

Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
When the Russian Federation began its transition toward a market based economy, promoting competition and regulating anticompetitive behavior - issues never previously needing to be addressed - arose as new and unfamiliar subjects for state policymaking and law enforcement activities. In order to address these issues, the Russian Federation created a competition authority and basic law in 1991, quite early in its transition period. Support for competition was expressed in the 1993 Constitution, as well as in other fundamental legislation. As part of a larger study of regulatory reform, the OECD in 2003 undertook a detailed assessment of Russia fs decade of experience with competition law and policy. The Report concludes that despite early legislation on the issue and strong expressions of support for competition in the laws, the creation and protection of competition on domestic markets has not been a policy priority. Emphasis on rapid privatization limited the scope of pre-privatization restructuring to promote competition and the competition authority has been expected to serve as a general regulator of behavior in markets, assigned to fill legislative gaps and to enforce against a variety of undesirable practices in markets. Overly broad responsibilities and a lack of credible sanctions have significantly limited the impact of the competition laws.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia

59285. Public Sector Modernisation: Governing for Performance

Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Performance – improving it and measuring it – has pre-occupied governments for at least half a century. Over the past two decades, public sector performance has taken on special urgency as OECD countries have faced recessions, mounting demands for more and better public services, and, in some countries, citizens increasingly unwilling to pay higher taxes. Accompanying these pressures have been demands for more public accountability.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Government

59286. OECD Territorial Reviews: Mexico City

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Mexico City's spectacular growth into one of the world's largest metropolitan regions is giving way to new development dynamics. The Metropolitan Area of Mexico City (MAMC), with a population of approximately 18.4 million people, is undergoing two main transitions: first, from high population growth to relative demographic stability and spatial redistribution, and second, from a declining manufacturing economy focused on national markets to one based on services competing internationally.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

59287. Economic Survey of Canada, 2004

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Economic performance has been solid, and macroeconomic policies are appropriate. The economy is expected to expand by close to 3.5 per cent in 2005, and the output gap will soon be closed. Monetary stimulus should gradually be removed and the fiscal policy stance needs to remain neutral. The Canadian dollar appreciated sharply in 2003 and is now probably not far from its fundamental value. Canadian firms will need to continue to adjust by making efforts to improve productivity to maintain competitiveness. Policy makers should remain focussed on policies that enhance productivity growth across all sectors. With a sound macroeconomic framework and structural policies that are mostly conducive to a well functioning economy, the country is well placed to meet the challenges of an ageing population, namely, maintaining rises in living standards through strong rates of productivity growth and policies to attenuate the expected fall in hours worked on average across the whole population, and ensuring that public finances are sustainable, especially given pressures on health care outlays.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

59288. Economic Survey of Turkey, 2004

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Turkey is at a crossroads. After hitting the most severe crisis of its recent history in 2000-2001, the economy bounced back and is now among the fastest growing economies in the OECD. A new institutional framework for monetary and fiscal policies as well as for product, labour and financial markets, infrastructure industries, and agricultural support opened a window of opportunity to escape from the three traps of low confidence, weak governance and high informality which underpinned the boom and bust cycle of the past and to embark durably on a higher growth path. Success will depend on fully implementing and completing the new policy framework.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Eastern Europe

59289. A New World Map in Textiles and Clothing

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The textile and clothing industries provide employment for tens of million of people, primarily in developing countries, and accounted for USD 350 billion in merchandise exports in 2002, or 5.6% of the world total. The current rules governing world trade in textiles and clothing will change drastically at the end of 2004, when countries will no longer be able to protect their own industries by means of quantitative restrictions on imports of textile and clothing products. What will this mean for cotton growers in Burkina Faso and Turkey, fashion retailers in France and the United States, or shirt factories in Bangladesh, the Dominican Republic or China?
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, United States, China, Turkey, and France

59290. Clocking in and Clocking out: Recent Trends in Working Hours

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The amount of time people spend at work is a key element in several economic and social challenges facing industrial countries, notably those associated with population ageing. OECD governments will need to bring more people into the labour force and keep them there in coming years as the ratio of older to younger people rises if they wish to maintain living standards and finance social protection. One way of doing that is to make working time more flexible. For example, part-time jobs can make it easier for mothers with young children to combine working and parenting. More flexible working hours can also help firms adjust to changing workloads.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy

59291. Farm Household Income: Towards Better Informed Policies

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Improving the income situation of farm households remains a prominent objective of agricultural policies in many OECD countries. Concerns are often expressed in response to year over year declines in national farm income levels or to fluctuating world commodity prices. Increasingly, however, attention is moving away from such partial indicators of household well-being towards a more comprehensive concept of farm household income which encompasses all income sources available to family members as well as their accumulated wealth.
Topic:
Agriculture, Civil Society, Development, and Economics

59292. Economic Survey of Finland, 2004

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The transformation of the Finnish economy over the last decade represents one of the few examples of the "new economy" taking hold in Europe. Output and productivity growth over the second half of the 1990s was among the highest in the OECD, and the recovery from the global downturn has been much stronger than for the euro area as a whole. However, imminent population ageing threatens to expose weaknesses in the labour market. Demographic developments, which over past decades have been broadly neutral, could reduce the growth rate of GDP per capita by 1/4 of a percentage point per annum over the remainder of this decade and by almost 1 percentage point over the next decade. This, combined with the likelihood of smaller productivity gains in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector, a continuation of falling ICT prices as well as the mediocre performance in the sheltered sectors, threatens the future growth of living standards. Within a decade, and in the absence of further policy changes, these developments together could imply that Finland not only loses its top performer status but could face a protracted period of slow growth, as illustrated in the following scenario.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

59293. Private Health Insurance in OECD Countries

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Health spending in OECD countries averages more than 8% of gross domestic product (GDP) and the share is rising. Overall, some threequarters of that spending is publicly financed. Private health insurance accounts, on average, for only a quarter of private-sector financing, although there is great cross-country variation. In a third of the OECD member countries at least 30% of the population has private health insurance, while market size is negligible in nearly as many countries. Private health insurance also plays a variety of roles, ranging from primary coverage for particular population groups to a supporting role for public systems.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Human Welfare

59294. Employment Protection: Costs and Benefits of Greater Job Security

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Deregulating labour markets – for example making it easier for firms to hire and fire employees – is at the heart of the employment debate in many OECD countries. Laws on firing or layoffs and other employment protection regulations are thought by many to be a key factor in generating labour market "rigidity", as well as one reason for the large differences in labour market performance among OECD countries, notably between the United States and some of the larger European countries.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

59295. Economic Survey of Portugal, 2004

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Convergence of the Portuguese economy toward the more advanced OECD economies seems to have halted in recent years, leaving a significant gap in per capita incomes. The proximate cause is low labour productivity, as employment rates across the board are substantially higher than the EU average. Nor is there a shortage of capital goods in aggregate. But capital equipment in the business sector is not always efficiently used or allocated, and new technologies are not readily adopted. Furthermore, the Portuguese labour force – even its younger members – have had less formal education than workers in other EU countries, including among the new entrants from Central and Eastern Europe, and workers in Portugal also have less access to training than in many other countries. Traditional Portuguese low value-added highly labourintensive products now face increasing competition from developing countries and from the new EU entrants.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

59296. Competition Law and Policy in Japan

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Japan's Fair Trade Commission, created in 1947, is one of the oldest and largest competition law enforcement agencies in the world. Before the 1990s, though, competition had usually played a subordinate role in Japan's regulatory policies, while aspects of Japan's traditional approach to regulation had contradicted principles of modern competition policy. Over the past decade of reform in Japan, this attitude toward competition policy has been changing.
Topic:
Development, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:
Japan and Israel

59297. Which Policies Can Reduce the Cost of Capital in Southern Africa?

Author:
Martin Grandes and Nicolas Pinaud
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Lowering interest rates and, thus, the cost of borrowing in the rand zone (Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland and South Africa) is a priority to promote investment and economic growth. Local-currency interest rates in these countries are driven by those on rand-denominated transactions. Reducing the level and volatility of the rand premium would help reduce financing costs in the region. Policies should promote: enhancing financial-market liquidity; easier access to South African financial markets for African entities; domestic saving capacity; and the improvement of international perception of the rand. Johannesburg could become a financial "hub" for the region, channelling cheap resources to its neighbours.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, Swaziland, and Namibia

59298. Public Sector Modernisation: Changing Organisational Structures

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Governments have always changed their structures to respond to new priorities in a changing society, or to improve the management of existing ones. They have also taken advantage of new capacities and better governance in society in general to put some of the functions previously performed in the core public service at arm's length, or even to privatise or contract them out.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, Economics, and Government

59299. Internationalisation of Higher Education

Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Higher education has become increasingly international in the past decade as more and more students choose to study abroad, enrol in foreign educational programmes and institutions in their home country, or simply use the Internet to take courses at colleges or universities in other countries. This growth is the result of several different, but not mutually exclusive, driving forces: a desire to promote mutual understanding; the migration of skilled workers in a globalised economy; the desire of the institutions to generate additional revenues; or the need to build a more educated workforce in the home countries, generally as emerging economies.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, Education, and Government

59300. The OECD Principles of Corporate Governance

Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The integrity of businesses and markets is central to the vitality and stability of our economies. So good corporate governance – the rules and practices that govern the relationship between the managers and shareholders of corporations, as well as stakeholders like employees and creditors – contributes to growth and financial stability by underpinning market confidence, financial market integrity and economic efficiency. Recent corporate scandals have focussed the minds of governments, regulators, companies, investors and the general public on weaknesses in corporate governance systems and the need to address this issue.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, and Political Economy