Topic: Political Economy - CIAO Search Results

1. The State of EU-US Digital and Energy Cooperation

Author:: Federica Marconi, Wolfgang Münchau, and Irene Paviotti
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In a time of rapid technological advancements and changing energy paradigms, the European Union and the United States are trying to coordinate their efforts to navigate the complexities of an ever-evolving landscape. Transatlantic dialogues and cooperative endeavours are key mechanisms for mitigating tensions and fostering a common assessment of the opportunities and risks arising from these advancements. Critical in this regard are the problems of governance emanating from technological development and its consequences in the digital sphere as well as the delicate balance between security, competitiveness and environmental targets in the energy dimension.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Political Economy, Governance, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Digital Policy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

2. The Invisible Leverage of the Top 1 Percent: Absentee Debtors and Their Hedge Funds

Author:: Stefano Sgambati
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The existing literature on finance, debt and inequality depicts economic elites as a creditor class. According to a popular thesis, over the past four decades, the rich and ultra-rich households in the top 1 percent have experienced a saving glut (excess income), which they have invested in the debts of the poor and their governments. While it is undeniable that the rich have expanded their income share at the expenses of the poor, to refer to them as ‘creditors’ or ‘lenders’ is a misrepresentation of how they actually expand their wealth and income shares by financial means. For it conceals the fact that a great deal of their investments is leveraged, that is, carried out with borrowed money. This article shows that the debts generated by individuals and households in the top 1 percent easily surpass those of all other households and even exceed those of the most indebted states in the world. However, these debts are hard to estimate, and indeed they are not accounted for in statistics on household debt. This is because households in the top 1 percent do not borrow from banks, like normal households do, but they are instead absentee debtors who borrow through the hedge funds, private equity firms, personal investment trusts, and big banks of which they are dominant shareholders and ultimate beneficiaries. To gain an insight into their invisible leverage, the article looks at how much hedge funds borrow, and why their leverage matters.
Topic:: Debt, Political Economy, Inequality, Finance, Elites, Hedge Funds, and Leverage
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3. Freedom of Association as a Key Aspect of Human Capital Management

Author:: Lenore Palladino
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Employee freedom of association— the right of workers to form and join organizations of their own choosing— is a fundamental human right that has been consistently disrespected by large U.S. employers (Economic Policy Institute 2019; International Labour Organization 2022). Freedom of association requires employers to refrain from discouraging employees’ right to organize but is routinely violated without meaningful penalty. In over forty percent of union election campaigns, employers face charges for violating employees’ right to organize—which does not include cases where no charges are filed (Economic Policy Institute 2019). The recent wave of well-known companies like Amazon and Starbucks blatantly engaging in practices to discourage their workers from forming unions has seen new challenges from the Biden National Labor Relations Board, but labor law in the United States does not adequately protect the right to freedom of association, and a change in political leadership could give companies carte blanche to override workers' rights (Clean Slate 2022). Companies can choose to establish corporate policies to respect employee freedom of association rights and can engage in behavior demonstrating their commitment to respecting this fundamental human right as part of their approach to Human Capital Management. This article focuses on two aspects of freedom of association as an aspect of Human Capital Management. The first is to examine what kinds of corporate policies exist to clarify corporate standards of conduct when employees are engaged in organizing activity. What kinds of policies focus on compliance with the minimal standards in U.S. labor law, and what policies comply with international norms as enshrined in ILO Conventions 87 and 98? The second prong of the article looks at negative ramifications for corporate value when companies do not respect workers' freedom of association and such behavior becomes public. What is the effect on customer attitudes, how is management behavior becoming increasingly visible, and what ramifications might this have for institutional investors?
Topic:: Political Economy, Employment, Human Capital, Labor Rights, Business Management, and Freedom of Association
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4. The Economy in its Labyrinth: A Structuralist View of the Mexican Economy in the 21st Century

Author:: Liz Monroy Gomez Franco
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: In this paper, I analyze the performance of the Mexican economy during the two decades of the 21st century. I focus on the aggregate and sectoral dynamics of the economy to understand the underlying dynamics behind the aggregate performance of the economy. With these results in mind, I analyze the changes and continuities in the conduction of macroeconomic and labor market policy with the arrival of a new administration in 2018. The goal of analyzing both elements is to provide an integrated view of the situation in which the Mexican economy will face three structural challenges: the medium and long-run effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the integration of artificial intelligence into the production process, and climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Political Economy, History, Macroeconomics, Artificial Intelligence, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

5. IMF Standby Agreements and Inequality: The Role of Informality

Author:: Ceyhun Elgin and Adem Elveren
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: In this paper we investigate the response of two inequality metrics to different IMF programs. To this end, we use a relatively large annual (unbalanced) cross-country panel dataset that includes the Gini index and the Estimated Household Income Inequality as the two relevant inequality metrics and covers the period from 1950 to 2016 in an annual basis for 159 countries. Our empirical analysis indicates that in countries where the informal sector size (as percentage of GDP) is relatively larger, the extent of income inequality increases after different IMF programs, but particularly so after standby arrangements. However, we also show that the opposite is true, when informal sector size is small, i.e., inequality declines after different IMF programs.
Topic:: Political Economy, Inequality, IMF, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

6. Dark Spots in the International Commodity Value Chain: The Case of Copper in Zambia

Author:: Dale Mudenda and Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper investigates mineral export misinvoicing in Zambia as a channel of capital flight, with a focus on copper, gold, and gemstones. The analysis reveals major discrepancies between Zambia’s recorded exports and imports as recorded by its trading partners. In the case of copper, a large share of exports recorded in Zambia as headed to Switzerland does not appear in Swiss imports. The ‘missing copper’ cannot be traced through analysis of trade between Switzerland and its major partners either. Gaps in the opposite direction are observed in Zambia-China trade, suggesting export underinvoicing, a common mechanism of capital flight. These do not offset the gaps observed in mirror trade statistics between Zambia and Switzerland, which remain a mystery. Similarly, whereas the primary destination recorded for Zambian gold exports is South Africa, these do not appear in gold imports recorded by South Africa. The gemstones sector is characterized by high informality that enables smuggling and export underinvoicing. Zambia must implement measures to curb misinvoicing of mineral exports and address structural opacity in the trade value chain if it hopes to maximize the gains from the exploitation of its mineral resources.
Topic:: Political Economy, Commodities, Exports, Global Value Chains, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

7. Navigating the treacherous political economy of structural reform

Author:: Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry, and Chris Papageorgiou
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: We examine the economic and electoral effects of liberalisation measures using newly-constructed databases on structural economic reforms and the outcome of democratic elections since the 1970s. The data shows a remarkable slowdown in the pace of liberalisation in both advanced and emerging market and developing countries since the 1990s. A debate has emerged about the causes of this slowdown, including the possibility that reforms do not deliver the economic benefits that advocates, including the multilateral financial institutions, trumpeted. Some have pointed to the fact that the current and previous United States administrations have abandoned neoliberal policies in favour of more government intervention in the economy, and the effect has been globally contagious. Our empirical analysis suggests that the growth dividend from liberalisation is economically and statistically significant, but it emerges only slowly over time. Because of this delay, liberalising reforms are costly to democratic incumbents when they are implemented close to elections. Reforms may generate immediate concentrated losses, which elicit an electoral backlash, especially when the aggregate gains are only visible several years after the reform’s implementation. The electoral penalty is also sensitive to overall business-cycle conditions, being much larger when an economy is in recession. Electoral effects also differ depending on the type of reform. Notably, financial reforms generate more perceptible growth-equity trade-offs than real-economy reforms, especially when implemented during weak economic conditions. The political economy of reform is treacherous. To avoid adverse electoral effects, timing reform early in the electoral term and when business-cycle conditions are favourable is critical. So too is avoiding reforms that generate large distributional costs in the face of small aggregate gains (an adverse growth-equity trade-off). Focusing on these considerations is critical to reinvigorate support for structural reform.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Reform, Elections, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8. Talking Exports: The Representation of Germany’s Current Account in Newspaper Media

Author:: Andreas Maschke
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Contents 1 Introduction 2 Germany’s export-led growth model 3 Sustainability of growth models: Growth coalitions and public discourse 4 Analysing the discourse surrounding Germany’s current account surplus 5 Results Quantitative analysis Qualitative analysis 6 Discussion of results 7 Conclusion Appendix References
Topic:: Political Economy, Media, News Analysis, Economic Growth, and Discourse
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

9. Paying Off Populism: How Regional Policies Affect Voting Behavior

Author:: Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper shows that regional policies can decrease populist support. We focus on the “development objective” (Objective-1) of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), meant to support lagging-behind regions. For causal inference, we exploit three sources of quasi-exogenous variation in a Regression-Discontinuity-Design (RDD), a Difference-in- Differences framework (DiD), and with matching techniques. Using NUTS3-level panel data on the outcomes of elections to the EU parliament, observed over the period 1999-2019, we consistently find that Objective-1 transfers reduces the vote share of right-fringe parties by about 2.5 pp. Left-fringe party support is not affected. Complementary analyses of individual-level survey data from the Eurobarometer show that the European Regional Policy increases trust in democratic institutions and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:: Political Economy, European Union, Populism, Regional Integration, Currency, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

10. Paying Off Populism: EU-Regionalpolitik verringert Unterstützung populistischer Parteien

Author:: Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: How to break the populist wave? With the elections to the European Parliament ahead, and the Presidential Elections in the US looming, this question bothers policymakers in many Western democracies. Our study shows that regional policies effectively decrease populist support. Specifically, EU Regional Policy investing into the development of lagging-behind regions decreases the vote share obtained by right-fringe populist parties by 15–20 percent. Moreover, regional policy investments increase trust in democratic institutions, and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:: Political Economy, European Union, Populism, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

11. A Political Economy of Zawiya: Armed Groups and Society in a Western Libyan City

Author:: Wolfram Lacher
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Since 2015, the coastal city of Zawiya has witnessed endemic violence, but never an all-out war between its main forces. Due to this, the city has become emblematic of Libya’s power struggles. Despite its significance, however, no in-depth studies exist on its armed groups and their evolution. A Political Economy of Zawiya: Armed Groups and Society in a Western Libyan City—a new report from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment In North Africa (SANA) project—seeks explanations to this puzzle in the economic interests of armed groups and their varying relations with local society, and shows how Zawiya’s armed groups gradually came to take on a particularly abusive and predatory character.
Topic:: Security, Political Economy, Armed Forces, and Society
Political Geography:: Libya, North Africa, and Zawiya

12. A Political Economy of Tripoli’s Abu Salim: The Rise of the Stability Support Apparatus as Hegemon

Author:: Adam Hakan
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Once a hotbed of pro-Qaddafi resistance, Abu Salim is now a stronghold dominated by Abdelghani al-Kikli (widely known as ‘Ghaniwa’) and his Stability Support Apparatus (SSA). Ghaniwa has consolidated power over Abu Salim—the main southern gateway into the Libyan capital of Tripoli—through violence. A Political Economy of Tripoli’s Abu Salim: The Rise of the Stability Support Apparatus as Hegemon—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment In North Africa (SANA) project—examines how Ghaniwa’s methods have reshaped Abu Salim’s political economy, and how the hegemonic nature of this military consolidation has allowed the SSA to take on an outsized role in Libya’s broader political and economic spheres.
Topic:: Political Economy, Hegemony, Armed Forces, and Instability
Political Geography:: Libya, North Africa, and Tripoli

13. Financial Turmoil, Uncertainty, and Institutions: Turkey’s Political Economy in Crises

Author:: Serhan Yalçiner
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Financial turmoil damages national and global economies, but the causes of financial crises vary, with a combination of financial and political factors creating them. By asserting that every financial crisis necessarily involves political aspects, this study aims to certify that the poor policy response of Turkey, which has relied heavily on a “president over institutions” approach, has contributed to the ongoing severe currency and debt crises. Focusing on the two predominantly domestically induced crises of 2001 and 2018, this article analyzes secondary literature and data to put forth a framework that combines the fiscal policy response with a look at the country’s institutional strength and shows how financial uncertainty and instability exacerbated the conditions of the ongoing 2018 crisis. The study also finds that deteriorating political institutions in Turkey, marked by a lack of governmental efficacy that has led to compromised financial and fiscal sustainability, has played a considerable role in the onset of the 2018 crisis.
Topic:: Political Economy, Financial Crisis, Authoritarianism, Institutions, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

14. Does Trade Exposure Explain Antiglobalization Votes?

Author:: Antoine Bouët, Anthony Edo, and Charlotte Emlinger
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: We investigate the local effects of trade exposure and immigration on voting behavior in France from 1988 to 2022. We use the content of each candidate's manifesto to construct an anti-globalization voting index for each French presidential election. This index shows a significant increase in the anti-globalization positions of candidates, and a growing anti-globalization vote beyond the far right. We show that increasing local exposure to import competition and immigration increases anti-globalization votes, while increasing export exposure reduces them. We also find that imports have different effects depending on the products imported. While exposure to imports of final goods increases anti-globalization voting, exposure to imports of intermediate goods reduces it.
Topic:: Globalization, Political Economy, Immigration, Voting, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe and France

15. Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since 2018

Author:: Joshua Craze
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Though elections are now postulated for next year, South Sudan remains in crisis. Conflict continues to scar the country, and climatic shocks exacerbate already acute resource scarcity, leaving approximately 76 per cent of South Sudan’s population surviving on humanitarian assistance. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir survives by diverting revenues in three key areas—oil production, humanitarianism, and loans from international financial institutions—to the benefit of an elite class in Juba, but at the cost of the immiseration of the people of South Sudan. Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since 2018—a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—analyses this predatory political economy in South Sudan, and charts a shift from the use of wages to reward loyal appointees to a more obscure system based on the dispensations of favours.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Political Economy, Elections, Conflict, and Revenue
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

16. Xi Jinping’s Vision for the Middle East

Author:: Yair Albeck
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Chinese leader Xi Jinping clearly aspires to establish a new global economic order centered around Beijing, not Washington. However, a new global economic order cannot be built in a day. The immensity of this challenge has forced Xi to set his sights on a set of interim goals. These include cementing the Communist Party’s control of the Chinese economy and shielding supply chains, capital flows, and strategic bilateral and multilateral relationships from hostile American policies. These goals equate to the creation of a Sinocentric global economic subsystem. This would be partially integrated into the current Western-led system but would be sufficiently decoupled from the West to protect the pillars of the Chinese Communist Party’s political economy. In Beijing’s grand design, the Middle East plays an indispensable role. But Western analysts have often misjudged China’s interests in the region as purely commercial. While Xi values the region for its economic potential, he sees it as one of the most important arenas of competition with the United States. Yet when United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan recently discussed American leadership of the global economy, he focused on Europe and the Indo-Pacific and mentioned Africa and Latin America. He did not mention the Middle East once.1 Washington’s persistent blind spot in the Middle East has obscured its view of Beijing’s global ambitions. If the US does not rectify this mistake, it risks losing more influence in the region and aiding China’s effort to supplant the US atop the global economic order.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Political Economy, Foreign Direct Investment, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:: China and Middle East

17. BlackRock ve ABD Hegemonyası

Author:: Muhammet Sait Pınarbaşi
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: 1980’lerde başlayan uluslararası ekonomi politik gelişmeler kurumsal yönetişim rejimini de etkileyerek, varlık yöneticisi kapitalizmi olarak adlandırılan bir sürece girilmesine ve bu sürecin sonunda yeni ekonomi politik aktörler olan dev varlık yöneticisi şirketlerinin önemli ölçüde büyümesine sebep olmuştur. Ekonomik sistemde hâkimiyetin, rızaya dayalı tahakküm biçimi olarak hegemonyanın ön koşullarından birisi olarak sayılması, bu şirketlerin en büyüğü olan BlackRock’ın ABD hegemonyasındaki konumunun değerlendirilmesinin önünü açmıştır. Konuyla ilgili eserlerin incelendiği literatür taramasının yanında yorumsamacı yaklaşımdan yararlanılarak yapılan çalışmada BlackRock’ı ABD hegemonyası perspektifinden araştırmak hedeflenmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda yapılan araştırmanın sonucunda, yönetimi altındaki varlıkların 10 trilyon dolara ulaştığı BlackRock’ın; ABD ile yakın ilişkisi, ekonomik kriz dönemlerindeki kurtarıcı rolü, dünyanın en büyük finans kuruluşlarına (merkez bankaları dahil) danışmanlık yapması, hissedar olduğu binlerce şirketin genel kurulunda oylama hakkı bulunması ve 2012’den itibaren her yıl yayınlanan mektuplar aracılığıyla küresel ekonomik sisteme önemli ölçüde etki etme kabiliyeti bir bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde ABD hegemonyası lehine konumlandığı gözükmektedir.
Topic:: Political Economy, Hegemony, Capitalism, and BlackRock
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

18. Cooperative Federalism in India: The Goods and Services Tax Council: Dialectics and Design

Author:: Haseeb A. Drabu
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: This paper explores the origins of the GST Council, examines its impacts on federalism in India, and considers the road ahead for the institution. It also addresses key arguments that have been put forth about the design and functioning of the Council. The GST Council, despite its shortccomings, has the potential to evolve as the centrepiece of a new federal architecture in India. It has changed the institutional architecture of fiscal federalism in India and can potentially change the dynamics of Centre-state relations. However, India’s evolving political economy threatens to derail the federal compact that underlay its formation.
Topic:: Political Economy, Tax Systems, Domestic Policy, and Cooperative Federalism
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

19. Gender and Just Transition: Envisioning a Gender-transformative Pathway to Energy Transition in India’s Coal States

Author:: Suravee Nayak and Ashwini K. Swain
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Entrenched gender biases and injustices in the coal political economy cannot be wished away with the ongoing shift from coal to renewable energy. Rather, the energy transition must seek to unwind these entrenched patterns in the 20th century energy system while creating an equal role for and participation of women in the 21st century energy system. To do so, just transition planning must proactively engage with gender questions in coal communities and envision a gender-transformative pathway to the transition in India’s coal states. Analysing the forms of exclusions faced by women in coal economies, this brief argues that women face four structural barriers – entry barrier, distribution barrier, wage barrier and representation barrier – that are consequential for their social and economic status and agency. The combined effects of these barriers, the masculine nature of the coal industry and existing social norms marginalise women in India’s coal communities and confines them to three observed patterns of engagement: 1) social reproductive labour, 2) informal casual labour and coal scavenging, and 3) formal but menial labour in coal mines. The ongoing shifts in our energy foundations offer an opportunity to unwind the gender inequities and injustices of the coal economy and envision a gender equal energy future. In this direction, the brief suggests four immediate steps to engage with the gender question as part of just transition planning. Recognise women labour force in the coal economy through an intersectionality-informed analytical and assessment framework. Ensure women’s representation in just transition planning at different tiers of governance and decision making. Promote gender inclusive economic diversification in coal regions, with particular attention to women- centric and women-led economic opportunities. Treat women as change agents in the energy transition harnessing their potential role in smoothening the disruptions of the transition.
Topic:: Political Economy, Women, Coal, Inclusion, Gender, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

20. The EU–US Data Protection Framework: Balancing Economic, Security and Privacy Considerations

Author:: Federica Marconi
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The rapid evolution of digital technology has ushered in a data-centric economy, where data accessibility drives marketplace efficiency and economic growth across various industries. However, this shift, while offering numerous benefits, introduces significant privacy and data security challenges, particularly in the context of transatlantic data transfers. Considering the vast economic ties between the EU and the US, the transatlantic data flow vividly illustrates the complexities involved in governing and transferring data. It grapples with the ongoing challenge of striking a satisfactory balance between economic advantages stemming from data utilisation and various concerns pertaining to national security, digital sovereignty and individual rights. In recent years, the European Commission approved two different frameworks on transatlantic data flow – Safe Harbour in 2000[1] and Privacy Shield in 2016[2] – asserting that the US provided a level of data protection for data transfers essentially equivalent to that guaranteed in the EU. However, despite initial optimism, both adequacy decisions faced a significant setback when the Court of Justice of the European Union invalidated them in what is commonly referred to as the “Schrems saga”,[3] named after the Austrian activist who first challenged both frameworks before the European Court. The core arguments centred on the absence of adequate safeguards for personal data within US domestic law and the extent of state surveillance over such data when it was transferred, as initially disclosed by Edward Snowden in 2013.[4] This legal development led to a period of significant uncertainty and further heightened the ongoing debate concerning the regulation of transatlantic data transfer. To address the consequences of this legal turmoil, both EU and the US committed to establishing “a renewed and sound framework for transatlantic data flows”,[5] seeking a long-term solution to address the complexities of data privacy and security, eventually leading to the recently adopted EU–US Data Privacy Framework (“DPF”).
Topic:: Security, Economics, Political Economy, European Union, Privacy, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

21. The Internationalisation of the Chinese Renminbi and China’s Digital Currency Plans

Author:: Lorenzo Bencivelli and Michele Savini Zangrandi
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: China has made major reforms to boost the international standing of its currency. The global presence of the renminbi remains contained, however. This is due to China’s economic structure (a persistent current account surplus and a partially closed financial account) and the government’s grip on the economy. China is also a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) forerunner. The digital yuan (e-cny) is already active in a large scale trial. Many claim that the e-cny could provide a major boost to the internationalisation of the renminbi. However, the internationalisation of the renminbi would require major economic reforms that cannot be bypassed by the deployment of new technologies. The e-cny is therefore unlikely to boost the renminbi’s international presence. Yet, its underlying technology could be exported to other countries wishing to deploy their own-currency CBDCs. Much like with telecommunication equipment, this scenario would put China in the position of being a provider of a critical infrastructure. In the longer run, the export of e-cny technology might also facilitate the creation alternative payment networks, though this scenario is not very likely.
Topic:: Political Economy, Governance, Finance, Currency, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

22. Rentiership and Intellectual Monopoly in Contemporary Capitalism: Conceptual Challenges and Empirical Possibilities

Author:: Joseph Baines and Sandy Brian Hager
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The concepts of rentiership and intellectual monopoly have gained increased prominence in discussions about the transformation of global capitalism in recent years. However, there have been few if any attempts to construct measures for rentiership and intellectual monopoly using firm-level financial data. The absence of such work, we argue, is symptomatic of conceptual challenges in delineating what precisely qualifies as rent, intellectual or otherwise. In place of static conceptions of rent and intellectual monopoly, we develop a dynamic framework for analyzing the processes of rentierization and intellectual monopolization and apply this framework to the analysis of the transformation of non-financial firms in the United States since the 1950s. We find that the timing and intensity of rentierization and intellectual monopolization differs significantly across sector and firm size and is heavily mediated by the uneven ramifications of government policy across companies and industries. Overall, our framework illuminates the variegated landscape of corporate power in the US, and offers a useful guide for critically interrogating rentierization and intellectual monopolization in other contexts.
Topic:: Political Economy, Capitalism, Monopoly, and Rentiership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

23. Paying with Austerity: The Debt Crisis and Restructuring in Sri Lanka

Author:: C. P. Chandrasekhar, Jayati Ghosh, and Debamanyu Das
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: On April 12, 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on external debt service commitments. Announcing the “pre-emptive default,” pending restructuring, the government also announced that it was suspending repayments due in 2022 on its external debt. By May, Sri Lanka was formally in default, becoming the first country in the Asia-Pacific region to default on debt in two decades. There were medium-term factors that underlay the crisis, not least of which was the chronic dependence on foreign finance, especially debt, to cover widening current account deficits that followed the IMF-inspired and dictated embrace of liberalization policies starting in the late 1970s. In recent years, following the global financial crisis and the end of the civil war in 2009, this dependence on external borrowings intensified. There was also a dramatic shift towards bilaterally, besides multilaterally, financed investment projects and increasing reliance on the bond market, partly to meet debt service commitments on accumulated debt. Given this vulnerability, a crisis was precipitated by a collapse in foreign exchange receipts during the Covid pandemic, due to falling exports, near-zero tourist arrivals and reduced remittances and the subsequent spike in the outflow of foreign exchange because of the speculation-induced rise in the prices of fuel and food. This paper details the events which culminated in the Sri Lankan debt crisis, assesses the appropriateness of the official, IMF-prescribed strategy of adjustment and debt restructuring, considers the experience with restructuring thus far, and explores alternatives that would have been, and could still be, less regressive and ensure sustainable development.
Topic:: Debt, Political Economy, Finance, Austerity, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: South Asia and Sri Lanka

24. The International Monetary Fund and Neonatal Mortality Rates, 1985-2018

Author:: Shih-Yen Pan, Michael Ash, Bridget Diana, Lawrence King, Joseph Lavallee, Ta Minh Quan, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: In 2015, 193 nations committed to UN Sustainable Development Goal 3·2, which aims to reduce child mortality rates by 2030. Despite progress, challenges remain, especially in low- and middle-income countries. International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs may influence these outcomes through structural adjustments which prioritise macroeconomic stability over public spending. In this study, we examine the impact of IMF interventions on neonatal mortality, addressing concerns about existing analyzes with a novel statistical approach.
Topic:: Political Economy, History, Sustainable Development Goals, Macroeconomics, IMF, and Infant Mortality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

25. Structural Changes and Dominance of Finance in Contemporary Capitalism

Author:: Sunanda Sen
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Structural changes in economies as have taken place in in majority of economies in terms of the sector-wise contribution to their aggregate output as well as employment include a rising share of the services sector, often exceeding one-half of the GDP. Services include, in addition to other activities, the high value financial activities, having weights disproportionately large. Thus the rising share of services to the GDP implies simultaneous rise in share of financial activities to the GDP as well. Analyses in literature explain structural changes by relative profitability as prime mover of changes, similar to financialisation of economies. In this a circuitous link between socio- political and economic-forces and the changing weight (power relations) can be observed. With capitalism taking a multi-layered structure, the path of finance to dominance may be along a variety of trajectories including vertical shifts from real to financial activities. The quantitative strength of finance is reinforced by socio political forces as alliances. The path may face a crisis led by fundamental uncertainty where agents are ignorant of the future, and the path keeps changing by actions of agents themselves. With knowledge unattainable, ‘conventions’ help agents, as Keynes held, the calming of nerves, forming collectively a “conventional process of expectation formation”. This forms a major theoretical innovation of Keynes which brings in expectation formation and decision making by agents based on custom, habit, tradition, instinct as relevant in a model of human agency faced with fundamental uncertainty.
Topic:: Political Economy, GDP, Employment, Capitalism, Finance, and Keynes
Political Geography:: Global Focus

26. Cocoa in Ghana, the ‘Political Crop’: Does State Control Shield the Cocoa Sector from Exposure to Capital Flight?

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana and Kwame Adjai-Mantey
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Since its introduction into Ghana in the 19th century, cocoa has been considered a strategic crop, over which the post-independence governments have maintained substantial control. Cocoa is indeed referred to as a ‘political crop.’ The cocoa sector is closely regulated by the government through the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD). This paper aims to investigate whether this special industrial organization structure and the strict regulation help minimize the sector’s exposure to capital flight that would otherwise occur through export misinvoicing and leakage of foreign exchange earnings from cocoa exports. Indeed, compared to the gold sector in Ghana and the cocoa sector in neighboring Côte d’Ivoire, both of which are fully liberalized and dominated by foreign corporations, the cocoa sector in Ghana exhibits relatively little evidence of export misinvoicing. Moreover, cocoa export earnings are fully repatriated as they are in the hands of COCOBOD. The analysis, however, indicates that the gains from the cocoa sector in terms of contributions to GDP, tax revenue, and poverty reduction remain sub-optimal. This suggests that there is substantial room for improvement of these outcomes through targeted reforms and policy interventions at the sectoral level.
Topic:: Political Economy, Reform, Exports, Capital Flight, and Cocoa
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

27. Capital Flight from Natural Resource-Dependent African Countries: Updated Estimates and Analysis for the Cases of Cameroon, Ghana, and Zambia, 1970-2021

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper is part of a project that investigates domestic and global drivers and enablers of capital flight from Cameroon, Ghana, and Zambia, three countries that are significantly endowed in natural resources. It presents estimates of capital flight from these three countries and discusses the key drivers of the phenomenon. The results show that as of 2021, estimated total capital flight stood at $71.1 billion for Cameroon, $50 billion for Ghana, and $71.5 billion for Zambia. External borrowing and, in the cases of Zambia and Cameroon, trade misinvoicing, are key correlates of capital flight. While external borrowing directly and indirectly drives capital flight, trade misinvoicing constitutes an important mechanism of unrecorded cross-border capital flows. This study contributes to the efforts to uncover the mechanisms and enablers of capital flight from Africa, with the aim of shedding light on possible strategies to curb further capital outflows in the context of efforts to scale up and diversify development financing to support recovery from global crises, the transition to green growth, and sustainable development in Africa.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Capital Flight, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, Zambia, Ghana, and Cameroon

28. China’s Changing COVID-19 Policies: Market and Public Health

Author:: Zhun Xu
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: After the outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020, China took fast and decisive measures to successfully contain the spread of the virus within its borders. While the rest of the world saw huge human and social costs in the pandemic, the Chinese mainland for about two years was largely free from COVID. The zero-COVID model, however, met great challenges by early 2022. Despite some efforts to save the zero-COVID model, in November 2022, the Chinese government abruptly abandoned its signature COVID controls during the pandemic and switched to the opposite. This article reviews the evolution of the Chinese COVID policies and places the dramatic turns in the context of the changing Chinese political economy. The findings show that the shifting class interests and actions were an important force behind China’s retreat from zero- COVID.
Topic:: Markets, Political Economy, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

29. Individualism and Political Stability

Author:: Minhyeon Jeong and Wongi Kim
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study analyzes the relationship between individualism as a cultural trait and political instability as a political characteristic. The intuition of the analysis is that cultural traits can determine political preferences of members of society. The study considers a specific political belief: “How much should the government protect individual property rights?” which extends to broader political beliefs such as profree market vs. pro-redistribution. According to numerous studies, individualistic cultures tend to support stronger protection of property rights than collectivist cultures. If the degree of protection of property rights is determined by the political choices of the members of society, it can be inferred that the political preferences that lead to strong protection of property rights reflect the individualistic cultures inherent in society members. That is, the political preferences of society members regarding the degree of property rights protection―or, in a broader sense, pro-free market versus pro-redistribution―are influenced by their cultural traits of individualism or collectivism. This study presents a politico-economic model that captures this intuition. The theoretical results are as follows. First, in societies where neither individualism nor collectivism dominates, political preferences for free-market or redistribution contrast more sharply than in societies where individualism or collectivism dominates. Second, this contrast in political preferences leads to political instability, such that societies where neither individualism nor collectivism dominates tend to be more politically unstable. This study provides empirical evidence supporting the theoretical results. This study identifies a relationship between cultural traits, political preferences and political instability, shedding light on the impact of culture on economic growth. In a nutshell, societies with highly heterogeneous cultural traits among their members are prone to polarization of political preferences, leading to political instability, which constrains economic growth in the long run.
Topic:: Political Economy, Political stability, Individualism, and Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30. Climate versus trade? Reconciling international subsidy rules with industrial decarbonisation

Author:: David Kleimann
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The vast environmental subsidies that may be required for the transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are starting to generate international trade and political frictions between the world’s largest economies. This puts (supra-)national industrial decarbonisation efforts on a collision course with international subsidies rules and national countervailing duty (ie anti-foreign subsidy) laws and regulations. International cooperation will be essential to defuse such tensions before they escalate and impede effective climate policy rollouts, and before they lead to economic countermeasures that create new barriers to trade in environmental goods. This requires agreement on permissible environmental subsidy practices that minimise distortions. Meanwhile, it will be crucial to provide financial transfers to assist poorer economies with industrial decarbonisation at the same time as those poorer economies are suffering from the cross-border negative economic impacts of otherwise net-global-welfare enhancing environmental subsidies paid out by wealthy countries. Various forums can host the technical and political negotiations necessary to set the parameters of net global-welfare enhancing subsidies. These include the G7, the G20, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the World Trade Organisation’s Trade and Environment Committee and WTO Trade and Environmental Sustainability Structured Discussions, and the Coalition of Trade Ministers on Climate.
Topic:: Climate Change, Political Economy, Trade, Carbon Emissions, Subsidies, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

31. The Political Economy of Anti‐bribery Enforcement

Author:: Lauren Cohen and Bo Li
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: A level playing field for firm competition is a fundamental requirement for any market to maximize its potential and achieve productive efficiency. When government favors a set of firms or individuals over others, distortions arise that reverberate throughout entire industries, affecting sales, production, innovation, and more. This is not to say that barriers to firms may not sometimes naturally arise, but if a finger is placed on the scale by government to allow certain firms to gain some unerodable advantage, this can have large implications on allocation and overall economic development.
Topic:: Corruption, Political Economy, Law Enforcement, Accountability, and Bribery
Political Geography:: Global Focus

32. China's Political-Economy, Foreign and Security Policy: 2023

Author:: Center for China Analysis
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: It has now been three months since the 20th Party Congress convened in Beijing on October 15. While the Congress set Xi Jinping’s ideological, strategic, and economic direction for the next five years, much has happened since then that the Chinese leadership did not anticipate. Principal among these surprises was the spontaneous eruption in late November of public protests across multiple Chinese cities against the economic and social impact of the Chinese Communist Party’s “dynamic zero-COVID” policy. These protests resulted in an unprecedented U-turn on December 8 from China’s relentless pursuit of its three-year-long national pandemic containment strategy to the Party now seeking desperately to restore economic growth and social calm. This shift has in turn generated major public pressures on the Chinese health system as hospitals struggle to cope with surging caseloads and mortalities. All of these developments stand in stark contrast to the political, ideological, and nationalist self-confidence on display at the 20th Party Congress. In October, Xi Jinping swept the board by removing any would-be opponents from the Politburo and replacing them with long-standing personal loyalists. Xi also proclaimed China’s total victory over COVID-19, contrasting the Party’s success with the disarray its propaganda apparatus had depicted across the United States and the collective West. Despite faltering economic growth, Xi had doubled down in his embrace of a new, more Marxist approach to economic policy which prioritized planning over the market, national self-sufficiency over global economic integration, the centrality of the public sector over private enterprise, and a new approach to wealth distribution under the rubric of the Common Prosperity doctrine. At the same time, Xi’s 2022 Work Report, delivered at the Congress, abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s long-standing foreign policy framework that “peace and development are the principal themes of the time” and instead warned of growing strategic threats and the need for the military to be prepared for war. As part of a continuing series on China’s evolving political economy and foreign policy, this paper’s purpose is threefold: to examine the political and economic implications of this dramatic change in China’s COVID-19 strategy; to analyze what, if any, impact it may have on China’s current international posture; and to assess whether this represents a significant departure from the Party’s strategic direction set at the 20th Party Congress last October. The paper concludes that the Party changed course on COVID-19 for two reasons: (1) it feared that not doing so would threaten its unofficial social contract with the Chinese people based on long-term improvements in jobs and living standards; and (2) that a structural slowdown in growth could also undermine China’s long-term strategic competition against the United States. This paper also concludes that the stark nature of the December 8 policy backflip, together with the Chinese health system’s lack of preparedness for it, has dented Xi Jinping’s political armor for the medium term. This setback comes on top of internal criticism of Xi’s broader ideological assault on the Deng-Jiang-Hu historical economic growth formula that Xi has prosecuted since 2017, as well as Xi’s departure from Deng’s less confrontational foreign policy posture that characterized previous decades. Nonetheless, these policy errors remain manageable within Chinese elite politics, where Xi still controls the hard levers of power. Furthermore, many of these changes on both the economy and external policy are more likely to be short-to-medium term and therefore tactical in nature, rather than representing a strategic departure from the deep ideological direction laid out for the long-term in Xi’s October 2022 Work Report. While these changes to current economic and foreign policy settings are significant in their own right, there is no evidence to date that Xi Jinping’s ideological fundamentals have changed.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Political Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

33. The political economy of energy production in post-independence Tanzania: A review

Author:: Japhace Poncian and Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In Tanzania, energy production is a matter of great political significance. Despite government commitment to promote non-hydro renewable energy, like solar and wind deployment, so far has been limited. Large, non-hydro, renewable projects have not yet attracted adequate government interest to get implemented. This new DIIS Working Paper suggests that the prioritisation of different sources of energy has been influenced by major shifts in the country’s broader development policy priorities. Access to electricity has in turn been scaled up. These developments point to the importance of political economy factors influencing energy sector development in Tanzania. The paper examines how such factors have influenced government energy source choice and, more importantly, how renewable energy has featured in Tanzania’s energy politics since independence. The paper is based on a review of existing academic and grey literature on energy sector development, reform, and politics throughout the period from independence in 1961 to 2021.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Renewable Energy, Independence, and Energy
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

34. Trading short-term gains for long-term costs: the Egyptian political economy under al-Sisi

Author:: Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Egypt’s political economy has been operating on the basis of three core principles over the last few decades. First, the country’s political authorities set strategic economic objectives in a top-down manner. Second, the power elite supports the political authorities and, in exchange, tightly supervises homegrown and foreign investment to generate revenues and job opportunities, as well as private benefits. Third, Egyptian citizens acquiesce, willingly or unwillingly, in this division of power that mostly benefits the political authorities and power elites in exchange for improvements in their livelihoods. Since 2014, President al-Sisi has held closely to these principles but relied increasingly on Egypt’s military networks (part of the power elite) to boost economic growth. This strategy has produced short-term gains – informal jobs and an array of consumer goods – at the expense of long-term economic prospects. In particular, the military’s economic influence has deepened some of Egypt’s structural problems: low productivity, inequality, informal unemployment and a suppressed private sector. This limits the future sustainability of the current economic model. Improving Egypt’s economic prospects requires reducing the role of the state – especially the military – in the economy in terms of decreasing the number of associated enterprises and lightening the regulatory framework. However, this is nearly impossible to realise in sectors in which the military already has a dominant profile, such as construction and extractives, because its support is essential for al-Sisi to maintain power. A more promising alternative for European policy makers to consider is influencing the Egyptian government to limit military influence in sectors with growth potential where the military is largely absent, such as manufacturing and Information and Communications Technology (ICT). A government strategy that prevents further military involvement in these sectors, crafts a regulatory framework conducive to private investment and invites foreign funding, can help Egypt realise greater economic growth and higher fiscal revenues.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Economy, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

35. Japan's New Security Strategy and the Changing Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Sheila Smith and Gerald Curtis
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Major changes that have occurred in the global political economy and in international politics in recent years have had a profound impact on nations all around the world. This is nowhere more evident than in the countries in the Indo-Pacific region and especially Japan. This conversation addresses Japan's evolving foreign policy and its impact in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Political Economy, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

36. The political economy of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador: Temporary bandages to permanent wounds?

Author:: Tobias Boos and Juan Grigera
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper provides a contextual analysis of the adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador. First, we outline the historical context and the political situation of the period 2019–24 that serve as context for the passage and implementation of the Bitcoin law (Decree No. 57). We identify the institutional and political context and the main areas of contention. Next, we delve into the macroeconomic context of El Salvador, outlining the fundamental features of its economy and highlighting how they relate to currency issues. Our analysis reveals that the adoption of Bitcoin cannot be understood without factoring in the mounting strains surrounding dollarization, remittances, and foreign debt. We conclude by putting forth a set of hypotheses regarding the potential dynamics and future of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador that point beyond Bukele’s tactics.
Topic:: Debt, Political Economy, Economy, Bitcoin, Digital Currency, Remittances, Dollarization, and Nayib Bukele
Political Geography:: Central America and El Salvador

37. Addressing Loss and Damage through the Mosaic: A Simulation from the Delta Republic

Author:: Michael Franczak and Michael Weisberg
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: The 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) takes place amid change and contestation in the global political economy. High prices for food and fuel are still a problem, particularly for countries that are net importers of both. Sovereign debt also remains a challenge due to rising borrowing costs and inaction from major creditors. Meanwhile, the adverse impacts of climate change are rising in scale and intensity and falling disproportionately on the countries least equipped to address them. In this context, parties to the 2022 Climate Change Conference (COP27) agreed to establish new funding arrangements for addressing loss and damage, including a new Loss and Damage Fund (LDF). The proposal for a fund and funding arrangements coordinated by a Loss and Damage Impact Council presents an opportunity to assemble the mosaic of solutions imagined at COP27. The problem is that we still lack a clear and shared picture of what it means to fully address loss and damage: what needs doing, who needs to do it, and how and when it needs to be done. This paper is an attempt to imagine a well-functioning and coordinated system—a mosaic—with functions, institutions, and results that deliver stability in the face of adverse climate change impacts. First, the paper presents the scenario of the fictional Delta Republic, which is suffering a slow-onset crisis compounded by repeated extreme events. It then identifies elements of an ambitious but practical response from the system we have, including actions, modalities, actors, and timing. The paper identifies gaps in the response and obstacles to the actions envisaged in the scenario, including but not limited to finance and financial arrangements. In its conclusion, the paper uses insights gained through the scenario to propose: (1) the purpose of the funding arrangements for extreme and slow-onset events, (2) an initial list of members for a Loss and Damage Impact Council, and (3) potential actions and interventions for the Loss and Damage Fund. Finally, the paper emphasizes the critical nature of a country- or demand-driven approach to the support provided by the LDF, including the use of accredited entities for implementation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Political Economy, Simulation, Loss and Damage (L&D), and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. Amérique latine. L'année politique 2022

Author:: Olivier Dabène
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:: Amérique latine. L’Année politique 2022 est une publication de l’Observatoire politique de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (Opalc) du CERI-Sciences Po. Il prolonge la démarche du site www.sciencespo.fr/opalc en offrant des clés de compréhension d’un continent en proie à des transformations profondes.
Topic:: Democratization, Environment, Political Economy, Sovereignty, Regional Integration, Transnational Actors, and Social Policy
Political Geography:: Latin America

39. Rethinking Monopoly as a Power Relation: The Shift from Market to Intellectual Monopoly

Author:: Cecilia Rikap
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The critical literature on monopolies, from monopoly capital to recent contributions, focuses on the organization that concentrates either market power, capital or property rights. I complement this literature by conceptualizing monopolies as a power relation, which enables me to integrate different ways in which the term is used, from capitalists’ monopoly over the means of production to intellectual monopolization. As I explain here, some firms have developed greater capacities to systematically monopolize intangibles that are essential for organizing labour beyond their owned assets and for controlling demand. Coupled with institutional, political and technological changes, larger absorptive and management capacities to produce and capture knowledge and information resulted in firms’ technological differentiation. The systematic winners of the innovation race hold persistent intellectual monopolies while other firms become subordinate due to their lack of technical autonomy. From this perspective, (intellectual) monopoly power is essential for understanding the distribution of value in capitalism.
Topic:: Political Economy, Labor Issues, Capitalism, Monopoly, Capital, Power Relations, and Value Capture
Political Geography:: Global Focus

40. Fossil Fuel Industry Phase-Out and Just Transition: Designing Policies to Protect Workers’ Living Standards

Author:: Robert Pollin
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper focuses on just transition policies targeted at supporting workers now employed in the fossil fuel industries and ancillary sectors within high-income economies. As a general normative principle, I argue that the overarching aim of such policies should be to protect workers against major losses in their living standards resulting through the fossil fuel industry phase-out. The impacted workers should be provided with three critical guarantees to accomplish this, in the area of jobs, compensation and pensions. Just transition policies should also support workers in the areas of job search, retraining and relocation, but these forms of support should be understood as supplementary. Within the framework of these broad principles, the paper first reviews experiences with transitional policies in Germany, the UK, the EU and, more briefly, Japan and Canada. A critical point that emerges is that these just transition policies do not provide the needed guarantees for assuring workers that they will not experience major living standard declines. The paper then describe an illustrative just transition program for workers that includes reemployment, income and pension guarantees, focusing on a case study for the U.S. state of West Virginia. The results show that the costs of the just transition program for West Virginia’s fossil fuel industry dependent workers will amount to an annual average of about $42,000 per worker, equal to about 0.2 percent of West Virginia’s GDP. I briefly summarize results from the seven other studies of U.S. states and for the overall U.S. economy. For the U.S. economy overall, the just transition program’s costs would total to about 0.015 percent of GDP. These findings demonstrate that providing a generous just transition program does not entail unaffordable levels of public spending. Robust just transition policies should therefore be understood as an entirely realistic prospect for all high-income economies.
Topic:: Political Economy, Labor Issues, European Union, GDP, Economy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:: Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, and Germany

41. The Political Economy of the Cost of Living Crisis in the UK: What Is to Be Done?

Author:: Ozlem Onaran
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the political economy of the cost of living crisis in the context of the United Kingdom. The paper presents the long-term trends in the wage share, wealth inequality, labour’s bargaining power, and real wages in the UK. The first and second waves of inflation in 2021-22 are discussed presenting the trends in the profit margins. The policy responses by the conservative governments and the Bank of England are analyzed, and their limitations are assessed. The paper concludes with short-run and medium-run policy alternatives to the cost of living crisis
Topic:: Political Economy, Labor Issues, Inequality, Inflation, and Cost of Living
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

42. Sellers’ Inflation, Profits, and Conflict: Why Can Large Firms Hike Prices in an Emergency?

Author:: Isabella Weber and Evan Wasner
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The dominant view of inflation holds that it is macroeconomic in origin and must always be tackled with macroeconomic tightening. In contrast, we argue that the US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers’ inflation that derives from microeconomic origins, namely the ability of firms with market power to hike prices. Such firms are price makers, but they only engage in price hikes if they expect their competitors to do the same. This requires an implicit agreement which can be coordinated by sector-wide cost shocks and supply bottlenecks. We review the long-standing literature on price-setting in concentrated markets and survey earnings calls and compile firm-level data to derive a three-stage heuristic of the inflationary process: (1) Rising prices in systemically significant upstream sectors due to commodity market dynamics or bottlenecks create windfall profits and provide an impulse for further price hikes. (2) To protect profit margins from rising costs, downstream sectors propagate, or in cases of temporary monopolies due to bottlenecks, amplify price pressures. (3) Labor responds by trying to fend off real wage declines in the conflict stage. We argue that such sellers’ inflation generates a general price rise which may be transitory, but can also lead to self-sustaining inflationary spirals under certain conditions. Policy should aim to contain price hikes at the impulse stage to prevent inflation from the onset.
Topic:: Political Economy, Inflation, Profit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

43. The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System: A Case Study in Chinese Economic Leadership

Author:: Aidan Campbell
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Investigations seeking to explain the rise of China rarely investigate the many new institutions founded to increase China’s economic success and influence over global affairs. In the economic sector, some better-known projects include the Belt and Road Initiative, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the New Development Bank. One of the newest and least understood institutions founded to promote international use of the RMB is the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). The purpose of this research is to examine the development, policies, and goals of CIPS in order to better understand the phenomenon of Chinese-lead international economic institutions. Novel evidence for CIPS’s intention to adopt blockchain technology and provide services for currencies other than the RMB is presented. The conclusion to this research is that CIPS is presently too small to pose a threat to the existing SWIFT network or predominance of US dollar transactions in international trade. At the same time, CIPS evidences a patient and rational strategy designed to reform international norms and patterns of trade to China’s advantage in the long term.
Topic:: Political Economy, Leadership, Economy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Banking
Political Geography:: China and Asia

44. Federal Reserve Anti-Inflation Policy: Wealth Protection for the 1%?

Author:: Aaron Medlin and Gerald Epstein
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate from Congress that directs it to conduct monetary policy as such to achieve “maximum employment” and “stable prices.” Yet the U.S. central bank typically chooses to address inflation as a top priority and focuses on employment only secondarily, if at all. Why? In this paper we argue that an important reason is that the Federal Reserve conducts policy so as protect the real wealth of the top 1% of the wealth distribution. We focus on the Fed’s fight against inflation in 2021-2022, when it rapidly raised its policy interest rates by almost 4 percentage points in the face of more than 6 percent inflation. Using a novel econometric analysis, we provide evidence that shows that this policy serves as a real net wealth protection policy for the 1% by restoring some of the lost wealth that they would otherwise lose due to unexpected inflation. The results of this policy for the top 10% of the wealth distribution are econometrically ambiguous. But to the extent that the Fed’s high interest rates generate higher unemployment or even a recession, this wealth protection for the 1% could have serious income costs for workers who find themselves or another member of their household out of a job.
Topic:: Political Economy, Monetary Policy, Inflation, Elites, and Wealth
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

45. State Capitalism, Imperialism, and China: Bringing History Back In

Author:: Isabella Weber
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: State capitalism is experiencing a great revival as a term to capture the current capitalist constellations, increasingly replacing neoliberalism. Unlike neoliberalism, however, the term state capitalism has a long history reaching back to the age of imperialism in the late 19th century. While state capitalism has been used as a pejorative term by Marxists, liberals and neoliberals alike, it has served as a programmatic label for developmentalist and neomercantilist projects in reaction to imperialism in the periphery. This paper argues that we need to bring the intellectual history of state capitalism into the ‘new state capitalism’ debate. China has played a major role in the revival of state capitalism in the social sciences, but the long history of China’s engagement with state capitalism as a concept and program dating back to the late Qing reformers has been overlooked for the most part. State capitalism is by no means new to China, from Liang Qichao, Sun Yatsen and Mao Zedong to Deng Xiaoping, the idea that China had to create a modern nation state and industrial capitalism in the name of economic progress and to get ahead in the global competition is a recurring theme. What is new is that for the first time the ambition to use state capitalism as a means to catch up with the West is bearing fruits in ways that could undermine the predominance of Western economies.
Topic:: Imperialism, Political Economy, History, Capitalism, and State Capitalism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

46. Capital markets: where we are and what can be done

Author:: Emani Torres
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: This text analyzes some of the recent dynamic changes in the Brazilian capital market, with an emphasis on the changes on long-term corporate credit offer, and makes suggestions on public policies. Issuance of debentures by financial institutions, that is, long-term corporate bonds, took a leading role in 2021, which was possible due to a highly favorable institutional framework, such as the existence of a broad and organized public debt market, the sustained fall in domestic interest rates observed in the same year, as well as the shrinkage of BNDES' relevance, historically the main supplier of term credit in Brazil. The text also explores some particularities of the Brazilian capital market in the light of international experiences. Finally, it presents suggestions for public policies to encourage the launch of corporate bonds to a wider audience, as well as to expand BNDES' participation in this segment.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Political Economy, and Capital
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

47. Operationalizing Growth Models

Author:: Lucio Baccaro and Sinisa Hadziabdic
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: We present a new methodology for operationalizing growth models based on importadjusted demand components. Applying the methodology to the latest release of OECD Input-Output Tables, we calculate the growth contributions of consumption, investment, government expenditures, and exports for sixty-six countries in the periods 1995 to 2007 and 2009 to 2018 and identify the respective growth models. We find that most countries are export-led or domestic demand-led and that other forms of growth are rare. Our results corroborate previous classifications in comparative political economy but also differ from them in significant respects. Importantly, our classification improves on previous ones by covering not just the advanced capitalist economies but also Central and Eastern European and South-East Asian and Latin American countries. In a further step, we illustrate how the new indicators can be used to analyze the “drivers” of different types of growth. This examination reveals that there is a clear trade-off between consumption- and export-led growth in advanced Western economies in the period 1995 to 2007 and a dependence of export-led growth in these countries on real exchange rate devaluation in the same period, while export complexity is not a significant predictor of export-led growth.
Topic:: Political Economy, Economy, Economic Growth, Exports, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia

48. No Strings Attached: Corporate Welfare, State Intervention, and the Issue of Conditionality

Author:: Fabio Bulfone, Timur Ergen, and Manolis Kalaitzake
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: This paper contributes to Comparative Political Economy (CPE), developing an analytical concept of corporate welfare. Corporate welfare — the transfer of public funds and benefits to corporate actors with weak or no conditionality — is a prominent form of state-business relations that CPE scholarship regularly overlooks and misinterprets. Such transfers should be understood as a structural privilege of business in a globalized post-Fordist capitalism, and an increasingly common strategy through which states attempt to steward national economic dynamism within a highly constrained range of policy options. However, without a well-developed concept of corporate welfare – premised upon the key criterion of conditionality – studies that identify a “return” of the state in industrial planning misrepresent these transfers to business as a reassertion of state influence and control, rather than a reflection of state weakness and subordination. The paper provides the analytical building blocks to properly conceptualize transfers to business, works out the core challenges for empirical research, and provides empirical illustrations of this burgeoning phenomenon from the fields of unconventional monetary policy, privatization, and urban political economy.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Political Economy, Privatization, Monetary Policy, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

49. Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction as a Radical Departure: New Paradigm for Analyzing Capitalism

Author:: Leonardo Burlamaqui
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: The paper’s core contribution is a reinterpretation of Schumpeter’s development theory, through the "creative destruction paradigm" provided in Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (CSD). By linking the core propositions of the latter with the brilliant, but underdeveloped, innovations from The Theory of Economic Development (TED) and some largely ignored historical and institutional insights provided in Business Cycles (BC), the seeds of a new analytical framework emerge. One which is completely out of balance, centered on finance, entrepreneurial action, uncertainty, institutions, and competition by means of innovation.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Capitalism, Finance, Entrepreneurship, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

50. Polanyi, Market Fundamentalism, and the Institutional Structure of Capitalism

Author:: Leonardo Burlamaqui
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: The basic proposition of this paper is that the so-called "new economic sociology", which is rooted in key ideas of Karl Polanyi, is an indispensable "tool" for two tasks: a) it provides us with a powerful critique of market fundamentalism, and b) it allows us to analyze the economic performance of contemporary capitalism by accessing the working of its institutional structure. From an analytical perspective, the paper suggests that Polanyian Economic Sociology is an essential complement to both the Schumpeterian and the Post-Keynesian perspectives in economics. This is especially so when it comes to the discussion of "socioeconomic stability" and, more precisely, as Keynes himself stated in the General Theory: to explain why capitalist economies manifest themselves in different ways and degrees, in spite of encompassing inherent elements of instability and unpredictability.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Political Economy, Sociology, and Capitalism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS