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71. Inconsistent Definitions of GDP: Implications for Estimates of Decoupling

Author:
Gregor Semieniuk
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Efforts to assess the possibilities for decoupling economic growth from negative environmental impacts have examined their historical relationship, with varying and inconclusive results. Part of the problem is ambiguity about definitions of environmental impacts, e.g. whether to use territorial or consumption-based measures of environmental impact. This paper shows that ambiguities arising from definitional changes to GDP are sufficiently large to affect the outcomes. I review the history of structural revisions to GDP using the example of the United States, and on international comparisons of purchasing power parity, compare decoupling results using various historical definitions of GDP on the same environmental indicator, and demonstrate that changing the GDP data vintage does impact decoupling results in qualitatively important ways, with and without purchasing power parity. Inconsistencies in economic measurement introduce an additional layer of ambiguity into historical decoupling evidence and model projection into the future. To advance debate and be clear about scenario assumptions, rigorous reporting of GDP definitions used and the sharing of data vintage for subsequent comparison and replication are urgently needed.
Topic:
Environment, Political Economy, GDP, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

72. Time Use Data in Feminist Political Economy Analyses: Gender and Class in the Indian Time Use Survey

Author:
Sirisha Naidu and Smriti Rao
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The literature on agrarian change in India has largely employed class categories based upon data on land, assets and occupational status. Land and asset data tend to exist at the level of households, while occupation categories have neither fully counted reproductive labour nor accounted for diversified livelihood strategies. As a result, categorizations of class in the literature on agrarian change tend to collapse women’s class relations into those of male household heads. The recent completion of India’s first ever national time use survey provides an opportunity to address these longstanding gaps. This paper examines whether and how the 2019 Indian Time Use data lends itself to an understanding of class relations that i) can better accommodate an expanded conception of work as including reproductive labor ii) better accommodate the highly diversified livelihoods of rural Indians iii) better grasp the articulation of caste and gender differentiated labor processes with capital. In this paper, we are able to show i) and ii). The third goal is somewhat stymied by the absence of qualitative data that contextualize time use data. We compare the class relational mapping obtained from time use data with that obtained from land and occupational data and examine the possibilities and limits of employing time use data to deepen feminist political economy analyses of agrarian change.
Topic:
Agriculture, Political Economy, Labor Issues, Feminism, Caste, and Gender
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

73. Inequalities and Local Infrastructure: The Challenges of Post-Covid Recovery Investments

Author:
Filippo Barbera
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Rather than being mere “productive environments”, localities embedded in infrastructure are distinctive living places in which communities of people live and establish a greater part of their daily social relationships. As a result, infrastructure represents the backbone of citizenship rights and strongly affect territorial inequalities. Infrastructure is chiefly understood in physical terms as reticulated systems of highways, pipes, wires or cables. This physical reductionism is by no means sufficient to encompass the multiple facets of the concept or to make sense of the many ways infrastructure affects socio-political inequalities. Knowledge infrastructure, for instance, may indicate robust networks of people, equipment and institutions that generate, share and maintain specific knowledge about the human and natural worlds. Infrastructure furthermore refers to the interplay between information technologies, transportation and other intermodal transport devices. All of these kinds of infrastructure affect inequalities in different ways.
Topic:
Political Economy, Politics, Infrastructure, Governance, European Union, Sustainable Development Goals, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

74. Land Grabbing and International Political Economy: Towards a Critical Neo-Gramscian Theoretical Model of Land Governance in Latin America

Author:
Sol Mora
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The vigorous debate on global land grabbing within Critical Agrarian Studies contrasts with the incipient analyses from International Political Economy (IPE). This divergence has overshadowed the multi-scalar nature of the power relations that shape land governance, and consequently its effects on land grabbing. For this reason, this paper provides a critical theoretical model of land governance based on Robert Cox’s historical structures approach to understand the causes of land grabbing in Latin American countries. It is argued that this model renders visible the articulation of local and global processes driving land grabbing because it foregrounds the power relations at multiple scales that shape decisions on land access, use and control, as well as the conflicts inherent to them. This demonstrates that, on the one hand, land governance structures in Latin America play a hegemonic role since they express and develop the global agricultural model that promotes land grabbing. On the other hand, social resistance highlights that land governance simultaneously possesses a potential for change. As a result, knowledge about land grabbing is enhanced through a dialogue between the two fields of study.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Governance, International Relations Theory, and Models
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

75. International Political Economy and Sustainable Finance: Assessing the EU’s Green Deal and UNCTAD’s Green New Deal

Author:
Johannes Jager
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
Sustainable green finance is often promoted as an innovative tool to deal with environmental problems. This paper assesses policy proposals at the level of the EU and UNCTAD’s Green New Deal, specifically regarding its suggestions in the field of sustainable finance. It provides a theoretical framework in the tradition of critical political economy and combines a global perspective with regulation theory in order to assess different strategies in the area of sustainable finance. The respective proposals and initiatives can be considered as possible blueprints for hegemonic strategies within different contexts. However, the analysis suggests both proposals, although substantially different and representing different entities in the international political economy, fail to provide a systematic answer to the problems of a highly unequal over-use of natural and environmental resources at a global level.
Topic:
Political Economy, Finance, Green Technology, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

76. Capital markets: where we are and what can be done

Author:
Emani Torres
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
This text analyzes some of the recent dynamic changes in the Brazilian capital market, with an emphasis on the changes on long-term corporate credit offer, and makes suggestions on public policies. Issuance of debentures by financial institutions, that is, long-term corporate bonds, took a leading role in 2021, which was possible due to a highly favorable institutional framework, such as the existence of a broad and organized public debt market, the sustained fall in domestic interest rates observed in the same year, as well as the shrinkage of BNDES' relevance, historically the main supplier of term credit in Brazil. The text also explores some particularities of the Brazilian capital market in the light of international experiences. Finally, it presents suggestions for public policies to encourage the launch of corporate bonds to a wider audience, as well as to expand BNDES' participation in this segment.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Political Economy, and Capital
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

77. Operationalizing Growth Models

Author:
Lucio Baccaro and Sinisa Hadziabdic
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
We present a new methodology for operationalizing growth models based on import-adjusted demand components. Applying the methodology to the latest release of OECD Input-Output Tables, we calculate the growth contributions of consumption, investment, government expenditures, and exports for sixty-six countries in the periods 1995 to 2007 and 2009 to 2018 and identify the respective growth models. We find that most countries are export-led or domestic demand-led and that other forms of growth are rare. Our results corroborate previous classifications in comparative political economy but also differ from them in significant respects. Importantly, our classification improves on previous ones by covering not just the advanced capitalist economies but also Central and Eastern European and South-East Asian and Latin American countries. In a further step, we illustrate how the new indicators can be used to analyze the “drivers” of different types of growth. This examination reveals that there is a clear trade-off between consumption- and export-led growth in advanced Western economies in the period 1995 to 2007 and a dependence of export-led growth in these countries on real exchange rate devaluation in the same period, while export complexity is not a significant predictor of export-led growth.
Topic:
Political Economy, Economies, Economic Growth, and Exports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

78. Domestic Workers: Postcolonial Inheritance and International Relations

Author:
Karen Johanna Pozo
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The discipline of International Relations (IR) in Latin American is still dominated by positivist and Westernized research. This creates challenges for international studies such as how to visualise the subjects or ‘sujetas’ who participate in national and international politics but are ignored in this field, and how to value the current postcolonial research, which offers critical perspectives that equilibrate the epistemic balance and help build adequate tools to understand different regional phenomena. By analysing a case study of the Association of Women Domestic Employees of Paraguay, this article clarifies how a postcolonial approach enriches the field of IR. This study argues that postcolonialism contributes to this field by making visible cognitive subjects and ‘sujetas’, who offer an alternative knowledge construction to rethink international relations with a meta-theoretical extension, visible. Postcolonialism is the theoretical basis of this qualitative research. Data was collected through semi-structured interviews and participant observations. This article suggests and concludes that women domestic workers as ‘political subjects’ enrich international relations by offering critical views to the research carried out in the subfields of foreign policy analysis, international political economy, and regionalism.
Topic:
International Relations, Political Economy, Post Colonialism, Domestic Work, and Postcolonial Theory
Political Geography:
Latin America and Paraguay

79. EfIP Online Panel: A New Macroeconomics?

Author:
Jón Steinsson
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:
There is a narrative within our field that macroeconomics has lost its way. While I have some sympathy with this narrative, I think it is a better description of the field 10 years ago than of the field today. Today, macroeconomics is in the process of regaining its footing. Because of this, in my view, the state of macroeconomics is actually better than it has been for quite some time. The most important problem with macro over the past few decades has been that it has been too theoretical. When I say this, I don‘t at all mean to say that theory is useless. To the contrary, theory is an essential element of a healthy science. But a healthy science needs a balance between theory and empirical work. Macro lost this balance in the 1980s and is only regaining it now. Most narratives about the evolution of macro focus on the evolution of macroeconomic theory and the rational expectations revolution in particular. An under-appreciated part of this story is that the rational expectations revolution shifted the field away from empirical work. This was partly because building models that met the higher standards of rigor set by Lucas and his co-revolutionaries was a challenging and therefore highly absorbing task. But that isn’t the only reason. For reasons that are not entirely clear to me, a very substantial fraction of macroeconomists came to believe that the Lucas critique implied that quasi-experimental empirical methods could not be used in macro. The idea that changes in policy could radically alter empirical regularities (i.e., the Lucas critique) somehow came to be interpreted to mean that the only way to do empirical work in macro was to write down fully specified general equilibrium models of the whole economy and evaluate the entire model (either by full-information inference methods or moment matching). Sargent, for example, placed enormous emphasis on the idea of “cross-equation restrictions.“ It seems that this line of thinking led large numbers of macroeconomists astray in terms of how to think about empirical work in macro for several decades.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
United States

80. New Directions in Macroeconomics

Author:
Gillian Brunet
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:
Without being overly prescriptive, macro research must meet two standards to keep the field moving in a productive direction: models must be tested empirically and researchers must think carefully about how underlying assumptions restrict the set of questions that can be answered with a given model. Models move knowledge forward through rigorous empirical testing. Matching moments in model calibration is not enough—nor should it be considered true empirics. When economics is done well, theory and empirics are complements: empirical research disciplines models and theory disciplines empirical research. In recent decades, macro research has tilted very heavily towards theory, forgoing the feedback generated by rigorous empirical testing and, as a consequence, dramatically reducing the ratio of insight to effort. Macro as a field must value empirical contributions to flourish fully. There has been significant progress in the last decade, but the balance still tilts heavily towards theory. Macroeconomists must stop dismissing empirical contributions as trivial for macro theory to reach its potential. It’s not an accident that many of today’s best macroeconomists stand out for their work in both theory and empirics: empirical work disciplines their theoretical research. Over the past 40-50 years, research in short-run macroeconomics has focused on the goal of creating unified, internally consistent models of the macroeconomy. While this is a worthy goal, it has perhaps become too dominant—and imposes hidden costs on research. The emphasis on developing a central baseline model to which idiosyncratic features are added for addressing a specific problem discourages many researchers from considering the suitability of the underlying model to the specific question being asked. As economists we are taught that every model is a simplification, so that the relevant question is not whether a model is good or bad but whether it is good or bad for answering a specific question. Yet choosing a single baseline model of the macroeconomy tends to obscure the closeness of the relationship between the model and the question it is used to answer. Often macroeconomists think carefully about the relationship between their question and the idiosyncratic features they add to the baseline model, but many of the assumptions underlying the baseline model become invisible and thus unquestioned. This is understandable given the complexity of modern macro models, but it has high costs. More careful consideration of the assumptions underlying baseline models and their appropriateness to individual research questions can help move the field forward.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Macroeconomics, and Models
Political Geography:
United States