Topic: Markets - CIAO Search Results

1. Recycling Regime, Environment, and Exclusion of Electronic Scrap Workers in Delhi

Author:: Gayatri Jai Singh Rathore
Publication Date:: 11-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:: In recent years, the Indian e-waste sector has undergone a process of formalisation through the implementation of E-waste Management Rules (2016), leading to the creation of what I call recycling regime. The upper and middle classes, along with NGOs and industry actors, are frontrunners in thinking about e-waste policies. They were prompted by a twofold motive: the desire for a “world-class”, clean, and pollution-free city; and seizing business opportunities by extracting value from e-waste. Rather than replacing the State, they co-opted the State so that it would legislate to safeguard the environment, and address toxicity and health problems associated with e-waste. Recycling regime relies on formalisation processes embedded in multiple technologies – technicity, capital-intensive facilities, certifications, authorisations, and licences – that work together to exclude the “informal” sector from the e-waste governance system. Recycling technologies act as “technologies of domination” that further contribute to sidelining the “informal” labour of scrap workers or e-kabadis, who as Muslims already find themselves on the margins of society. However, the recycling regime fails to safeguard the environment in the end as e-waste trickles down back to the informal sector via authorised actors.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Environment, Globalization, Health, Markets, Poverty, Governance, Law, Urbanization, Emerging States, and Norms
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2. Energy Data Spaces and Market Power: a new challenge for data sovereignty and its governance

Author:: Emanuele Giovannetti
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This paper examines how the digitalisation of energy markets, driven by smart meter data and Energy Data Spaces, is reshaping competition in retail electricity services. It analyses the implications for market power, consumer outcomes, and data sovereignty, highlighting the regulatory challenges posed by data-driven business models that operate across national boundaries.
Topic:: Markets, Governance, Regulation, Digitalization, and Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3. Economic implications for Europe of a potential reintegration of Iran into the world economy

Author:: Gabriel Felbermayr, Mahdi Ghodsi, Heider Kariem, Robert Stehrer, and Yoto V. Yotov
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: How would fundamental political change in Iran, leading to a democratic system with a free and rules-based economic order, affect Germany and the EU economically? In the event of change, sanctions could be scaled back, allowing Iran to rejoin the global economy. This study quantifies the economic effects of such a transformation. It neither advocates for nor legitimises the lifting or easing of sanctions under the current regime or without far-reaching and credible reforms that fully address the concerns underlying the sanctions currently in place. Using the newest available data and quantitative methods, the results indicate that lifting EU sanctions alone could raise Iran’s real GDP by more than 80% in the long run while generating moderate but economically meaningful gains for Germany and the EU of around 0.3-0.4% of GDP. These gains are driven by expanded trade, lower energy and input prices, and improved allocative efficiency. When sanctions removal is combined with plausible scenarios of productivity catch-up with Turkey or South Korea, Iran’s GDP would increase by 240-388% and the gains for Europe would increase further, underscoring the strong complementarity between trade integration and productivity growth. Moreover, Iran’s reintegration would reduce energy price volatility, improve the security of maritime trade routes, and lower migration pressures. Overall, the findings suggest that a negotiated transition and rules-based reintegration of Iran would generate substantial mutual economic benefits while contributing to regional and global stability.
Topic:: Markets, Political Economy, Foreign Direct Investment, Sanctions, European Union, Economy, Inflation, Energy, and Trade Integration
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, and Germany

4. Universidad dual: Formación innovativa para el futuro profesional

Author:: Vicent Climent-Ferrando
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: El dinámico mercado laboral actual exige una formación universitaria más ágil y relevante. A menudo, la evolución curricular de las universidades no sigue el ritmo de la innovación empresarial, generando una brecha entre la academia y las necesidades del sector productivo. La Universidad Dual surge como una solución clave, integrando la formación académica con la experiencia práctica en empresas. Este modelo no solo impulsa la actualización de los currículos, sino que también eleva la empleabilidad de los estudiantes al ofrecerles un entorno de aprendizaje real y aplicado. Sin embargo, su implementación presenta desafíos importantes: asegurar la calidad educativa, invertir en la capacitación del personal docente en las empresas y garantizar el equilibrio entre el estudio y el trabajo para los estudiantes. Desde Fundación Alternativas, abordamos estos retos. Presentamos un Policy Paper y una jornada de debate dedicados a analizar en profundidad el modelo de formación dual universitaria. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar su estado actual y proponer recomendaciones de política pública que faciliten su adopción progresiva, minimizando los riesgos asociados a esta transformación.
Topic:: Education, Markets, Labor Issues, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5. Korea’s Critical Minerals Agreements: From MOUs, To Three Strategic Pillars

Author:: Wonseok Choi
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Korea’s push for critical minerals security is anchored in a broader economic security agenda that treats upstream inputs as strategic dependencies for high-tech industries (notably semiconductors and secondary batteries). In 2023, the government introduced a national strategy to secure a reliable supply of critical minerals with an explicit target of reducing Korea’s heavy reliance on imports from a small set of supplier countries—from around 80% to 50% by 2030. This strategy operationalizes “critical minerals” through a two-tier classification: 33 critical minerals selected for economic security management, and 10 strategic critical minerals designated for intensive management to stabilize supply chains for key industries. The strategy combines market intelligence and buffer capacity. It includes plans to develop a global minerals supply map and an early-warning system for supply risks, while strengthening public stockpiling—raising the coverage target to 100 days (from 54 days) for critical minerals. In parallel, Korea has sought to expand international cooperation and diversify supply sources through plurilateral platforms and bilateral arrangements, positioning diplomacy (including MOUs) as a complement to domestic preparedness. Korea has yet to establish a dedicated, legally binding instrument for critical minerals supply chain stabilization comparable to the U.S.–Japan Critical Minerals Agreement. While it maintains cooperation through existing FTAs (e.g., with Australia, Colombia, Indonesia) and various non-binding MOUs with major producers since 2021, these mechanisms are primarily declaratory or facilitative, lacking enforceable rules on investment protection and export restrictions essential for robust supply chain security. Building on these foundations, Korea’s external cooperation toolkit needs to evolve gradually from an “MOU-centered” approach toward enforceable critical minerals (or minerals) agreements. In particular, supply chain stabilization requires an agreement architecture that links core obligations to meaningful implementation and, where appropriate, dispute settlement, so as to mitigate supply chain uncertainties originating from partner countries. This brief therefore proposes three priority pillars for Korea’s next-stage minerals arrangements: (i) disciplines on export restrictive measures (potentially anchored in the goods chapter), (ii) investment and investor protection provisions (through an investment chapter or equivalent safeguards), and (iii) facilitation of workforce mobility—especially the timely movement of technical personnel essential for supply chain cooperation and project implementation.
Topic:: Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Economic Cooperation, Economic Security, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

6. China's Overseas Production-Supply Bases: Network Structure and Implications

Author:: Jihyun Jung
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Global supply chains are undergoing structural change as the prolonged U.S.–China strategic rivalry, the normalization of geopolitical risks, and post pandemic disruptions shift the organizing principle from efficiency to stability, resilience, security, and trust. Major economies such as the United States, EU, and Japan have responded by strengthening policies for supply chain diversification, friend shoring, and strategic management of critical minerals and advanced industries. In response to these environmental changes, China is also strengthening the strategic nature of its overseas economic activities. Whereas Chinese companies' overseas expansion previously focused on market expansion or resource acquisition, it has recently shifted to a structural network expansion strategy aimed at responding to the restructuring of global supply chains. Specifically, China is expanding its global economic network by simultaneously establishing overseas production bases, supply bases, and infrastructure/logistics networks through a combined approach involving Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI), overseas contracting projects, and trade activities. This strategy goes beyond merely relocating production bases overseas. China is pursuing a multi-layered strategy: strengthening global market access through overseas production bases, establishing supply bases to secure critical minerals and intermediate goods, and solidifying long-term economic footholds through infrastructure and industrial park development. This can be understood as China's strategic response to maintain its economic influence and enhance industrial competitiveness amid the global supply chain restructuring. Therefore, China's overseas expansion should be analyzed not merely as a phenomenon of increased investment, but as a process of restructuring global production and supply networks. This report approaches China's overseas economic activities from this perspective, understanding them as a strategy for building production and supply networks, and systematically classifies China’s overseas bases into three functional types and identifies core hub countries through standardized indicator analysis.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Strategic Competition, Supply Chains, and Production
Political Geography:: China and Asia

7. The European Union Growth Plan for the Western Balkans: A reality test for EU enlargement

Author:: Valbona Zeneli, Richard Grieveson, Isabelle Ioannides, and Dimitar Bechev
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The European Union (EU) Growth Plan for the Western Balkans aims to integrate the region into the EU single market, enhance regional cooperation, implement significant governance and rule of law reforms, and boost EU financial support. In doing so, the EU seeks to foster economic development, political stability, and security in the region amid rising geopolitical tensions, while accelerating the Western Balkans’ EU accession process. The Growth Plan holds substantial potential to reinvigorate the enlargement process and counter the stagnation felt by both the EU and the region. Strong points include: Tangible benefits before full accession: Providing stronger incentives for reform. Active involvement of regional governments: Increasing buy-in from local leaders, who must submit their own reform agendas. Enhanced economic integration, greater access to the EU market, increased EU funding, and reforms to governance and the rule of law: Stimulating investment, promoting economic growth, and raising living standards. These improvements would bring the Western Balkans closer to the economic success seen in the Central and Eastern European countries in the EU over the past two decades. Moreover, fostering deeper regional cooperation will not only deliver an economic boost but also contribute to political normalization. If successful, the plan will bolster the EU’s political influence in the region, countering the impact of external actors and encouraging much-needed nearshoring investment from EU firms. However, the plan faces several challenges: Enforceability: Although conditionality is rigorous, with disbursement of funds tied to strict conditions to prevent misuse, there are concerns regarding its enforceability. The European Court of Auditors has already raised reservations. Quantity: Additionally, the financial support offered is significantly lower than what EU member states in Southeast Europe receive. The reforms required for fund access and single market integration are substantial and will demand significant political will and institutional capacity—both of which have been lacking in the region at times over the past two decades. The success of the growth plan will largely depend on its implementation. The EU must ensure rigorous enforcement of conditionality, reward positive reform steps, and increase funding for countries making progress. Civil society in the Western Balkans should be engaged as much as possible to foster broader support and transparency. The EU should also leverage the plan to align with its broader geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, particularly in strengthening its strategic autonomy. Additionally, the Growth Plan should be fully integrated with the EU’s competitiveness, green, and digital transition agendas. For their part, Western Balkans leaders should seize the increased agency provided by the plan. They must take ownership of the reforms they propose, participate actively in EU meetings, and design their reform agendas to deliver better living standards and deeper EU integration for their populations.
Topic:: Markets, Reform, European Union, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Europe and Western Balkans

8. The Future of European Digital Competitiveness

Author:: Oscar Guinea and Vanika Sharma
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi’s recent report on Europe’s competitiveness lays bare the negative effects of overregulation in the EU economy and the underperformance of its digital sector. However, Draghi failed to draw connections between these two phenomena. The future of Europe’s competitiveness is inextricably linked to the future of its digital economy. Unfortunately, the economic contribution of Europe’s Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector remains significantly smaller than that of the US ICT sector to the US economy. There are well-known reasons behind this divergence. Chief among them is the lack of sufficient investment in Europe’s intangible and tangible assets. Regulation, particularly those regulations governing the digital economy, has emerged as a key factor that restricts Europe’s usage of digital technologies and hinders subsequent productivity growth. The EU now has nearly 100 tech-focused laws, comprising thousands of pages, provisions, and restrictions. This must change. The EU should develop a joint plan for digitalisation and competitiveness. This plan should build upon Europe’s comparative advantages: openness, strong institutions, the rule of law, robust intellectual property protections, and high levels of human capital. Above all, the EU must recognise that, while protecting consumer rights, EU policies and regulations must also prioritise the competitiveness of Europe’s ICT sector and promote the widespread adoption of digital technologies across the entire EU economy.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Digital Economy, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

9. Competitive Harmonisation: A Collaborative Framework for Intra-EU Reform and Competitiveness

Author:: Matthias Bauer
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Persistent legal fragmentation, compounded by the EU’s 24 official languages, increases costs and legal uncertainty, deterring meaningful investments in innovation and preventing businesses from scaling across borders. Without bold, comprehensive legal reforms, Europe will fall further behind in global competition and major global technological developments. The EU’s incremental reform approach has failed to address the deep-rooted legal and institutional challenges threatening Europe’s economic future. Competitive Harmonisation offers a pragmatic yet visionary concept to overcome legal fragmentation, tackle the business scale gap, and unlock Europe’s vast economic potential. By embracing “collaborative governance” through coalitions of willing Member States, aligning with global standards, and prioritising innovation and technology diffusion, European governments can enhance the Single Market and restore Europe’s leadership in lawmaking and industrial competitiveness. Amid growing political risks, such as the threat of tariffs, the responsibility to act decisively rests squarely with Europe. By taking bold, pragmatic steps now, Europeans can not only resolve immediate challenges but also lay the groundwork for sustainable, long-term economic development.
Topic:: Markets, Reform, European Union, Regional Economy, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

10. The quickly fading memory of why and when bank capital is important

Author:: Jesper Berg, Nicolas Boivin, and Hans Geeroms
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Less than fifteen years after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, banks and policymakers are calling for deregulation and lower capital requirements in the financial sector. They dispute that the Basel framework, the global standards for regulating large international banks, should be implemented fully in the European Union. One concern is that stricter capital regulation will affect the competitiveness of European banks compared to those in the United States and will restrict loan provision in the EU, despite Europe’s significant investment gap. However, deregulation should not be confused with reducing capital requirements for banks. On balance, there is only limited empirical evidence that respecting the capital requirements necessary to support financial stability hampers credit to the economy, investment or economic growth in the long term. Only well-capitalised banks can continue financing the economy during economic setbacks, and weakening the implementation of the Basel standards increases the risks of a new financial crisis. Bank lending and access to financing surveys also show there is no credit crunch in the euro area at present and that capital requirements are not the primary constraint on credit provision. A detailed look at current banking regulation does not support the conclusion that European banks are more strictly regulated overall than US banks. A direct comparison suggests rather the opposite. However, the compliance cost incurred by EU banks from current banking regulation can be reduced by simplifying EU rules.
Topic:: Markets, Financial Crisis, European Union, Regulation, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:: Europe

11. Using data as a production factor: policy ideas for a new EU data strategy

Author:: Bertin Martins
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: A major task for the 2024-2029 European Commission will be to reconcile and simplify the European Union’s range of data-market laws into a more coherent framework. At the heart of the approach should be the non-rival nature of data, meaning it can be used by many parties for many purposes at the same time. That creates the potential for economic efficiency gains from the re-use and aggregation of data. Exclusive private data control rights and high transaction costs may stand in the way of realising these gains. We define economic criteria against which existing data market regulations can be evaluated. These criteria lead to the following recommendations to improve existing EU data regulations: The EU general data protection regulation facilitates re-use of personal data. Machine-readable consent notices and real-time data transfers could reduce high transaction costs that prevent meaningful exercise of informed consent. The European Health Data Space contains an almost-ideal governance regime for health-data re-use and pooling that maximises incentives for data-driven innovation. This regime should be applied to other industrial data-space initiatives. The Data Act facilitates access and re-use of product data but exclusive licensing rights for data holders, monopolistic pricing of third-party data transfers and other anti-competitive measures reduce its impact. Widening its application to services data would make it a truly horizontal data-market regulation. The Digital Markets Act contains several obligations for platforms to grant users access to their own data. Widening access to networked data would facilitate competition between platforms and their users. Mutual instead of unilateral sharing of search-engine data would avoid fragmentation of the search-data pool. The Artificial Intelligence Act imposes unwarranted and costly restrictions on the re-use of copyright-related content data for AI model training data, reducing the innovative impact of AI. The text and data mining exception in the EU Copyright Directive could be broadened to address these new AI technology challenges. EU data market regulations exhibit a tension between exclusive private rights and the realisation of the wider societal value of data. Finding an acceptable balance may involve some redistribution of the efficiency gains between data users and the original data collectors.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Digital Economy, Microeconomics, Data, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:: Europe

12. ‘Maximum pressure’ sanctions on Venezuela help US adversaries, hurt Venezuelans

Author:: William Tobin
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The “maximum pressure” strategy employed from 2018 to 2022 against the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela did not serve US interests. Stringent oil sanctions imposed on Venezuela forced the retreat of Western oil firms from the country, principally benefitting adversaries. During the maximum pressure campaign, Venezuela’s oil production was rerouted to China at discounted prices, Iran supplied the diluent Venezuela required for oil production, and Russian investors became more critical amid a dearth on Western investment. A democratic transition remained elusive while repression and human rights violations continued. Venezuelans suffered, US adversaries expanded their influence, and Maduro remained. The current system of issuing specific licenses for Western oil producers to operate in Venezuela has yielded superior results. The benefits of this policy have been the following: Venezuelan oil exports have been diverted to friendly nations. Treasury has increased visibility on all oil-related transactions, decreasing the clandestine shipment of oil through shadow tanker fleets operated by the Chinese defense establishment, Iran, or PDVSA. Compensation to the regime is limited to taxes and royalties, which are required by Venezuelan law. The system has enabled the return or reemployment of qualified engineers and technicians to restore production from degraded oilfield infrastructure. The incoming US administration should prioritize inflicting more harm on the regime and its enablers than the Venezuelan people—or US interests. To do so, sanctions must be linked to clear objectives. An uncalibrated reapplication of maximum pressure would cede influence to China, Russia, and Iran, while doing little to loosen the regime’s grip on power. Instead, the existing system of specific licenses should be maintained and expanded. To punish Maduro, the administration should continue to target individuals who enable his illegitimate rule, adding to the 180 individuals already sanctioned by the Treasury. A targeted sanctions policy—not maximum pressure—is the only way to ensure that US actions to confront the Maduro regime impose their desired effect, and do not play into the hands of Beijing, Moscow, or Tehran.
Topic:: Markets, Governance, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Venezuela, and United States of America

13. Financial Influence Operations in the Hybrid Threats Spectrum

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This paper examines the Hybrid Threats posed by perfectly legal and legitimate financial markets operations to national security through a variety of legal routes including acquisitions of intellectual property (IPs), E.S.G. regulations, Activist Investors and others. Focus has hitherto been on macro-measures, such as Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Screening, sanctions compliance, Anti-Money Laundering (“AML”), Counter-Terrorism financing (“C-TF”), supply chain security, raw materials and the like. However, very little attention has been paid to micro-level financial and economic security threats through legal and legitimate financial markets operations. In other words, Why spy when you can buy. To achieve economic and financial security in the interest of national security and maintaining military capability superiority, such micro-financial markets operations in the Hybrid Threats spectrum, i.e., in the financial markets, must be tackled to prevent, inter alia, critical technology leak; as well as to enable greater investments in military capabilities, which have become a key defence, security and Strategic Autonomy priority. The fovus on macro-measure, in other words, is insufficient to achieve the objectives of economic and national security and must be urgently augmented by microlevel financial markets measures and awareness beyond AML and C-TF.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Hybrid Threats, and Influence
Political Geography:: Europe

14. From Mine to Market: Using Traceability to Fight Mineral Sector Corruption

Author:: National Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:: In the global rush for transition minerals, the path from mine to market may become a corridor of corruption. It’s a journey where smuggled minerals vanish, illicit funds are laundered, and communities are left behind. Traceability, then, isn’t just about tracking a product for commercial reasons; it’s about how it can be used to build responsible and resilient value chains. This two-page briefing explains how traceability systems can help identify corruption risks in mineral supply chains and support stronger due diligence. It outlines practical ways companies, governments and civil society can use traceability data to detect red flags, strengthen transparency and promote accountability—from mine to market.
Topic:: Corruption, Markets, Mining, Energy Transition, and Traceability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15. Stabilizing Cobalt Markets: A Price Floor for U.S. Minerals Security

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Achieving economic viability for minerals security is one of the most pressing hurdles facing U.S. minerals security objectives. While this challenge spans the entire critical minerals landscape, it is particularly acute for cobalt. Despite cobalt’s central role in both energy security and the defense industrial base, its market remains highly distorted in the critical minerals ecosystem. Prices have swung wildly over the past decade, driven less by supply-and-demand fundamentals than by strategic behavior, particularly persistent oversupply from People’s Republic of China (PRC) producers that dominate global mining, refining, and processing. Between May 2022 and May 2025, cobalt prices plunged 59.5 percent, falling from $41 to $16.62 per pound. This sharp decline coincided with China Molybdenum Company Limited (CMOC) nearly doubling its annual cobalt production in 2024, reaching record output levels despite market prices falling more than 60 percent. The surge in PRC output has pushed several Western operations out of the market. In 2022, Jervois opened the United States’ only cobalt mine in Idaho, only to shutter it that the following year as prices cratered. While cobalt prices have begun to show upward momentum after a long period of weakness, the benchmark price for refined cobalt remains around $22.30 per pound as of late November 2025. But this relief is fleeting. The DRC has already signaled that it will move away from an export ban—an action that will flood the market once again and put renewed downward pressure on cobalt prices. To avoid another collapse that forces non-PRC producers offline, the United States and its allies must move quickly to deploy price support mechanisms that keep Western mines operating and prevent the market from reverting to PRC dominance.
Topic:: Security, Markets, Supply Chains, Cobalt, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

16. Satellite-Based Analysis of North Korea’s Market System

Author:: Jangho Choi
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The findings of this study suggest that satellite imagery enables a disaggregated analysis of North Korean markets by region, subregion, and economic actor, offering a multi-dimensional perspective on market dynamics. Specifically, the results indicate that North Korea’s markets have been expanding over the medium to long term. While COVID-19 containment measures and border closures led to a temporary contraction in market activity, they did not fundamentally reverse the trajectory of market growth. Market activity was observed to increase in correlation with improved logistics and supply flows—that is, as more goods were delivered to markets, prices tended to fall, and commercial activity expanded. This suggests that the expansion of the state commercial system under the North Korean government—characterized by greater administrative control and intervention in markets—does not aim to suppress or dismantle markets. Rather, it appears to reflect an effort to regulate and integrate increasingly active markets by partially substituting private sector functions with the state-run commercial network. The intended outcomes include increased fiscal revenue and the provision of stable commodity supplies to the population. Satellite imagery analysis remains at a relatively early stage of development in the context of North Korea. As a result, some of the derived indicators have shown inconsistencies or produced controversial findings, underscoring the need for continuous methodological improvement through sustained research. Further validation is also required to ensure that the various satellite-based indicators convey consistent and non-contradictory information.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Economic Development, and Satellites
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

17. Rethinking Aid in a Contested World

Author:: Stefan Dercon
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Development aid faces a crisis of budgets, legitimacy, and political alignment. Framed in recent decades as technocratic and benevolent, aid has always been political, shaped by donor and recipient incentives. Its post–Cold War expansion reflected a permissive era of unipolarity and globalization, when Western foreign policy, business, and security establishments provided broad support. That equilibrium has now collapsed. Multipolar rivalry, protectionism, and fragmented domestic coalitions have left aid vulnerable, shallowly supported, and increasingly driven by narrow donor interests. The paper calls for recognition of the need for a globalization 2.0 that enables poorer countries to grow, warning that without such a framework, remaining aid will become more fragmented and ineffective. It also cautions against a euphemistic reliance on “mutual interest,” as evidence of genuine donor–recipient benefits is limited; trade facilitation and post-conflict stabilization are rare exceptions. Finally, the paper advances four propositions: aid must be selective, avoid entrenching dependency, balance short-term results with long-term system building, and support reformers willing to challenge the status quo. Only by acknowledging its political nature and aligning incentives within a reconfigured global order can aid remain relevant to development.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Asia, South America, and North America

18. Services Liberalization and Product Variety of Manufacturing Firms

Author:: Alina Mulykova
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper investigates the impact of services sector liberalization on product innovation of downstream manufacturing firms. Leveraging firm-product panel data from India and employing a shift-share research design, I find that services liberalization significantly increases firms’ product portfolio. Allowing foreign investments in the banking sector decreases firm’s credit-constraint and increases the amount of interest payments on short-term loans. This shows that services liberalization reduces firms’ fixed costs of product innovation. Firms diversify into input-similar industries which changes the distribution of sales across products with the core product experiencing the most pronounced decline in the sales share.
Topic:: Globalization, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, Innovation, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

19. In Merz We Truss: Financial Market Reaction to Germany’s Fiscal Package

Author:: Filippos Petroulakis and Farzad Saidi
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • This study analyzes capital market reactions to Germany’s recent announcement of loosening fiscal restrictions for defense and state-level spending, while establishing a €500 billion infrastructure investment fund. In particular, we examine whether surging Bund yields reflect growth expectations or fiscal risk concerns. • Clear evidence of growth expectations: The steepening German yield curve, rising stock prices, euro appreciation, and stable credit default swap prices collectively indicate that markets interpret Germany’s fiscal expansion as growth-enhancing rather than a reckless fiscal bet. • The contrast with the UK’s Truss-Kwarteng episode is stark: Unlike the 2022 UK “mini budget” aftermath, which triggered a selloff across all UK asset classes, Germany’s announcement has seen positive market reception across different asset classes, suggesting confidence in Germany’s fiscal credibility. • While the policy shift introduces some uncertainty, evidenced by modest increases in the European VSTOXX volatility index, this reaction appears calibrated and partially attributable to concurrent global market events, reinforcing the interpretation that markets view Germany’s fiscal expansion as responsible.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Budget, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Yield Curve, and Debt Brake
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

20. Egypt: ICT as a driver for growth

Author:: Matteo Colombo, Anouk Pronk, and Robin Neumann
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Focusing on Egypt, the following section demonstrates how nearshoring can work in practice, and outlines what is needed to foster a more enabling nearshoring environment in the Netherlands. The analysis draws on two separate research missions during which the Clingendael team interviewed various stakeholders across the public and private sectors of both Egypt and the Netherlands. The first part of the research examined the Egyptian context, highlighting both the opportunities and barriers. The second part shifts to practical implementation and the measures needed to scale up and operationalise nearshoring. In this context, two complementary strategies emerge. The first taps into the pool of talent already present in Egypt with the help of local intermediaries. The second aims to expand the pool of ICT professionals that Dutch firms can tap into by investing in recent Egyptian graduates. This is to be done through targeted training and upskilling, geared at enhancing their employability in both Dutch and international markets.
Topic:: Markets, Communications, Information Technology, and Nearshoring
Political Geography:: North Africa and Egypt

21. Le marché gris du cannabis médicinal en Colombie

Author:: Luis Rivera Vélez
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:: The grey market for medicinal cannabis in Colombia -- Although it was legalised in 2015, we are now witnessing the emergence and structuring of the grey market for medicinal cannabis in Colombia. If the initial goal was to create a competitive legal industry, the implementation of an excessively pharmacological regulatory framework – combined with limited medical demand and transnational obstacles – favored the emergence of a parallel market operating at the margins of legality. The analyses of 25 interviews conducted with institutional, entrepreneurial, and civil society actors shows that the grey market is not merely the result of public policy failures but also the testimonial of the adaptive capacities of actors on the ground that use it to resist the failure of the policy implementation. Four production systems characterize this market which, far from being marginal, represents a key space for access to medicinal cannabis in Colombia, while simultaneously exerting pressure on authorities to redefine the regulation.
Topic:: Markets, Public Policy, Medicinal Cannabis, and Gray Market
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

22. Heterogeneous Trade Elasticity and Managerial Skills

Author:: Maria Bas, Lionel Fontagné, Irene Iodice, and Gianluca Orefice
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper investigates the role played by firms' managerial skills in the heterogeneous reaction of exporters to common exogenous changes in their international competitiveness (here captured by changes in the real exchange rate). Relying on a simple theoretical framework, we show that firms with better managerial skills have higher profits, market power, and are able to adapt their markup more when faced with a competitiveness shock. We test this prediction relying on detailed firm-product-destination level export data from France for the period 1995-2007 matched with specific information on the firms' share of managers. Our findings show that managerial intensive firms have larger exporter price elasticity to real exchange rate variations. The effect is not trivial: in the wake of a depreciation, exporters whose management intensity is one standard deviation higher than the average, increase their prices by 51% to 73% more than the average exporter. This finding is robust to controlling for the alternative explanations suggested by the previous literature to explain the heterogeneous pass-through of firms.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Exports, Trade, and Depreciation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

23. Market power and merger control in South Africa

Author:: C. Friedrich Kreuser, Michael Kilumelume, and Rulof Burger
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: We estimate structural, materials, and labour markups for the South African economy at the three-digit industry level for 2012–19. The fall in structural labour and materials markups found for the numerical majority of industries are generally isolated to smaller industries, with industries accounting for a higher proportion of sales generally experiencing smaller downward shifts. We show that materials-based markups are increasing over this period. Upward markup pressure in structural and labour markups are primarily driven by compositional shifts of surviving firms, while materials markup growth is driven by the average firm in a given sector. We show that merger intensity is positively related to structural markup growth, with a 1% increase in the proportion of cumulative mergers over 2013–18 being related to around a 0.27% increase in structural markup growth over the period from 2012 to 2019. We find that large vertical mergers are positively related to structural and materials markup growth while being negatively related to labour markup growth. Large horizontal mergers generally increase labour and structural markups.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Industry, and Mergers and Acquisitions
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

24. The flaws in project-based carbon credit trading and the need for jurisdictional alternatives

Author:: Byron Swift, Ken Berlin, George Frampton, and Frank Willey
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: This issue brief highlights several significant, and at times unresolvable, problems with the project-based approach to carbon credit trading, the purpose of which is to reduce deforestation and sequester carbon. Beginning with first-hand observations of the principal author during his experience with forest conservation efforts in the tropics, the brief describes the challenges that arise when this crediting model is implemented in the field, particularly in rainforests and other remote areas of the world. The publication then assesses the three critical structural problems with project-based credit trading that lead to a fundamental lack of integrity in such programs: The intractable challenges of a project-based regulatory structure involving difficult-to-prove requirements of additionally and leakage prevention. The major transaction and intermediary costs that can amount to half of project funding. The credit duration that is far less than the life of the additional CO2 emissions that are consequently emitted. The analysis also explains how economic forces and incentives exacerbate these problems, particularly with programs that are carried out by commercial credit traders as opposed to nonprofit entities. Finally, this brief discusses better alternatives, such as jurisdictional programs administered by governments or Indigenous associations, that could more effectively reduce emissions and strengthen the social fabric of communities required to assure credit integrity, accurate measurement, and adequate co-benefits.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Markets, Governance, Carbon Emissions, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

25. Digital services for e-government: opportunities for a future 2.5 billion African demographic market

Author:: Nii Simmonds
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In partnership with Africa Development Solutions (ADS) Group, the Africa Center released a report on “Digital services for e-government: Opportunities for a future 2.5 billion African demographic market” by Atlantic Council, GeoTech Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nii Simmonds. This report argues that e-government solutions have the potential to revolutionize service delivery across the African continent. E-government services refers to the process of providing technology-enabled public services. With Africa’s population projected to reach 2.5 billion people by 2050, nearly one-quarter of the world’s population, countries like Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of Congo will need to strengthen their government and infrastructure to manage the administration of critical services. As the middle class continues to expand, so will the demand for access to everyday services such as healthcare, renewing a driver’s license, and filing tax returns. This report highlights the potential for growth in African markets through e-governance and the importance having strong policies and frameworks in place to secure data. Additionally, the report offers case studies on Estonia, Canada, and India, three countries that have made tremendous commitment to bridging the gap between citizens and government through digital service delivery. With key recommendations for institutions ranging from African governments and regional bodies to DFIs and private sector companies, it is clear that each have an important role to play in the digitization of public services in Africa.
Topic:: Government, Markets, Economy, Business, and E-Government
Political Geography:: Africa

26. How Huawei Weathered the Storm: Resilience, Market Conditions or Failed Sanctions?

Author:: Hosuk Lee-Makiyama and Robin Baker
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Huawei is exhibiting stoic resilience in the face of US sanctions, economic downturns, and the slow pace of 5G investments. There is a narrative that the company has been propped up by the Chinese government, but the key to Huawei’s resilience is multifaceted. Through pre-emptive stockpiling and ingenuity, the company has continued to fulfil its base station orders and defend its market shares abroad. Concurrently, Huawei has made an autonomous business decision to reinvest its earnings and intensify R&D to secure its supply chains against political risks and diversify into new business areas. Successful forays into semiconductors, cloud services and energy grids have also been facilitated by a capital structure that lends itself to long-term planning. Huawei’s survival is not necessarily a lesson in the futility of sanctions to stifle technological progress. However, it does show that muddled political objectives and inconsistent implementation will yield potentially contrary outcomes. At the same time, factors that contribute to Huawei’s resilience also highlight the infighting and vulnerabilities of listed firms like Mavenir, Ericsson and Nokia.
Topic:: Markets, Sanctions, Digital Economy, Resilience, and Huawei
Political Geography:: China, North America, and United States of America

27. Trading Up: An EU Trade Policy for Better Market Access and Resilient Sourcing

Author:: Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Philipp Lamprecht, Oscar du Roy, Elena Sisto, and Renata Zilli
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Europe’s competitiveness could be substantially improved by a trade policy that facilitates more trade and other forms of cross-border exchange. The evidence is clear: the EU trades less with the rest of the world than would be expected given the size of its economy. With 85 percent of global growth happening outside of the EU – and with an increasing share of all new technologies, innovations, patents, human capital, and R&D expenditure emerging in other parts of the world than Europe – the EU needs to find better ways to integrate with international markets. It is now becoming urgent for the EU to revive its international trade policy. Europe’s increasing detachment from global markets lead to two major economic concerns: deteriorating market access and less capability to build economic resilience. Market access can be defined as an export challenge, as EU firms face increasing trade barriers that hinder their ability to sell products and services abroad. These barriers ultimately limit the EU’s ability to scale up production, specialise, and increase R&D spending. Economic resilience is an import challenge. To become more resilient, the EU must diversify its sources of supply, particularly for critical raw materials, and secure a stable and frictionless access to foreign high-end goods, services, and technologies. The next five years present a critical opportunity for the EU to address the challenges limiting the contribution of international trade to EU’s competitiveness. This Policy Brief outlines seven trade policy recommendations that tackle the lack of market access and address the need for economic resilience. These policy recommendations are there for the EU to take: they are realistic and achievable. The EU has the power to make these seven policy recommendations a reality.
Topic:: Markets, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Trade, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Europe

28. Keeping Up with the US: Why Europe’s Productivity Is Falling Behind

Author:: Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The European Union stands at a crossroads. For decades, the EU’s productivity growth has consistently lagged the United States, leading to slower growth in living standards and decline in global economic power. While short-term factors like the strong US fiscal expansion have widened the gap in nominal GDP growth in recent years, the fact is that Europe has trailed the US economic development for several decades and the root of the problem lies in deeper structural issues within the European economy. Four major forces fuel this productivity divide. Firstly, the EU’s investment in research and development (R&D) pales in comparison to the U.S., leading to fewer patents and a slower pace of technology-fuelled innovation. Secondly, Europe trails America in the stock and growth of intangible capital investments, which are crucial for adopting and diffusing new technologies that drive productivity. Thirdly, the EU market exhibits slower business creation and destruction compared to the US. This rigidity hinders the flow of resources towards the most productive firms. Lastly, despite boasting higher levels of trade openness, the EU attracts less Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) than the US, curbing its access to cutting-edge global technologies and expertise. To close the gap, European policymakers should implement a comprehensive strategy for faster productivity growth. The first step is turning up the dial on R&D spending, targeting 4-5 percent of GDP by 2040. Next, Europe should prioritise investments in intangible assets and lay down the digital infrastructure that will underpin future growth. Revitalising the single market is also crucial: reducing internal and external market barriers for services, the primary vehicle for trading intangible assets. Moreover, the EU should foster a market environment that encourages entrepreneurship and facilitate the entry and exit of firms so resources cascade towards the most productive sectors. By harnessing the strengths of the single market and implementing these recommendations, European policymakers can propel the EU towards a more competitive and prosperous future.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Productivity, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

29. Reinventing Europe’s Single Market: A Way Forward to Align Ideals and Action

Author:: Matthias Bauer, Dyuti Pandya, Vanika Sharma, and Elena Sisto
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: It is essential for EU institutions and Member State governments to shift their focus from the abstract concept of the “Single Market” to the concrete objective of “legal harmonisation in the EU.” This transition represents a strategic realignment towards more pragmatic policymaking. Adopting a 28th regime to address national regulation discrepancies would align with this goal and enhance the Single Market’s effectiveness in promoting economic growth and competitiveness. Given the EU’s ongoing loss of relative global economic clout, it is crucial to establish an ambitious timeline for implementing the most critical Single Market reforms. The Letta Report serves as a wake-up call to revitalise the EU’s Single Market, emphasising the need for decisive action. Its vision largely hinges on legal harmonisation within Europe, building on early efforts to liberalise markets and establish a truly integrated European market. Despite efforts, “integration fatigue” remains a significant challenge due to legal fragmentation across European economies. Previous reports, from the Cecchini Report in 1992 to the Europe 2020 Strategy, have highlighted persistent issues like regulatory divergences and declining political support for market integration. Despite numerous proposals, progress has been limited, and many challenges persist or have worsened (see Section 2). An analysis of EU reports reveals a shift in policy priorities over time. Initially, there was a strong focus on liberalisation and market opening, with less attention given to state aid and industrial policymaking. The Letta Report highlights the importance of regulatory convergence and harmonisation, reflecting a deeper understanding and recognition of the drivers of EU competitiveness. The rise of nationalism and a shift towards “Strategic Autonomy” within the EU have hindered crucial market reforms. This highlights the importance of aligning laws across Member States to strengthen and reinforce EU’s economic resilience and international competitiveness (see Section 3). EU institutions and Member State governments should set specific goals for “legal harmonisation in the EU.” This shift would address real challenges faced by businesses and citizens, and build political will for necessary reforms. Prioritising legal harmonisation would enhance internal cohesion and align national laws with Union-wide goals. An actionable roadmap – potentially with a 2028 deadline – is crucial to address the substantial gap between ambitious EU strategies and Europe’s economic realities. (see Section 4). Implementing sector-specific and horizontal policies in a new regulatory regime would improve cross-border operations and competitiveness. The Letta Report advocates for a European Code of Business Law to establish a unified regulatory framework, introducing a 28th legal regime to address national regulation discrepancies. Extending this regime to include tax and labour market policies would significantly enhance cross-border operations. The EU and Member State governments can eliminate substantial internal barriers by prioritising key horizontal policies affecting all businesses, such as fragmented tax laws, labour market policies, and social security systems. Simplifying and harmonising these policies on the basis of the facilitation of four freedoms is crucial for unlocking the Single Market’s potential for businesses and workers, boosting the EU’s global competitiveness. Allowing coalitions of willing countries to advance in certain areas of legal integration provides a viable solution to the long-standing Single Market “fatigue”. By enabling smaller groups of Member States to pursue integration in specific areas, the EU can bypass the constraints imposed by rigid voting requirements and achieve greater agility, accountability, and acceptance in EU law-making. This approach not only fosters flexibility but also upholds the fundamental principles and objectives of the EU. To ensure the integrity of the EU legal order and prevent unjustified barriers or discrimination against non-participating members, it is essential to establish safeguards and oversight mechanisms. These measures would maintain cohesion within the Union while allowing for progressive legal integration among willing Member States.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Digital Economy, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

30. The changing dynamics of European electricity markets and the supply-demand mismatch risk

Author:: Conall Heussaff and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Meeting Europe’s 2030 climate targets will require massive clean-electricity investment. To facilitate these investments, state-backed de-risking schemes such as contracts for difference (CfDs) are needed. Their role in supporting renewables has been consolidated by the European Union’s recently agreed electricity market design reform. Under such state-backed schemes, the distribution of costs between the market and the state will depend on the balance of supply and demand. Lower demand will decrease spot-market prices, reducing market costs but increasing the cost to CfD-issuing states. If electrification of European energy demand does not keep pace with the electricity supply expansion, tens of billions of euros annually could be channelled through state contracts, generating costs that must ultimately be recovered from consumers. A cost-efficient, managed transition will require European coordination of electricity supply, demand and network investments. Clean electricity supply and demand should be synchronised through a combination of state interventions and market mechanisms. Undersupply of clean power will mean a failure to meet climate targets, but oversupply can be costly too. To manage the costs of renewable de-risking schemes and to accelerate energy-system decarbonisation, flexible electricity systems should be promoted, policies to encourage electrification could be implemented and cost-recovery arising from state-backed renewable support schemes should be fair.
Topic:: Climate Change, Markets, Electricity, Energy, and Supply and Demand
Political Geography:: Europe

31. Unpacking China’s industrial policy and its implications for Europe

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Robin Schindowski
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: China is often credited with a successful application of industrial policy. One important particularity of China’s industrial policy is that it aims at levelling the playing field between the state economy and the private economy in access to finance, yet within a framework of strategic goals. This aim is not relevant for market economies, such as those of the European Union, but only for those where state enterprises are clearly privileged. Notwithstanding the difficulties in making valid comparisons, our analysis of how China conducts industrial policy in a variety of sectors points to success in some sectors but not all. More importantly, productivity growth in China has already been declining for two decades. Given the very large resources that China has put into industrial policy, with subsidies being only one part, it is surprising that success is not more evident. This relates partly to factors including cronyism and regional protectionism. While the former might be less relevant for the EU given the different institutional background, the latter certainly is relevant since the EU faces the potential consequences of member country-level industrial policy for its single market. A lesson from China seems to come from the sectoral focus, with a long-term and economic-security mindset. The EU is far from this, but it is in the process of linking economic security to industrial policy. Finally, responding to China’s industrial policy involves diverse investigations and challenges in measuring subsidies accurately. Understanding China’s very diverse and complex approach to helping companies achieve the government’s industrial policy goals is crucial for anticipating the consequences of China’s actions. These could be positive, such as cheaper imports of green technology, or negative, such as Chinese overcapacity spilling over to the EU single market.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Markets, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

32. Unity in power, power in unity: why the EU needs more integrated electricity markets

Author:: Georg Zachmann, Carlos Batlle, Francois Beaude, and Christoph Maurer
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The energy crisis that started in 2022 reminded European governments of the resilience provided by relatively well-integrated European electricity markets, which have been painstakingly built-up over several decades. European Union leaders thus decided to reverse a creeping energy renationalisation and to invest in completing the internal market. However, there are some indications that this momentum is being lost, with different EU capitals taking different lessons from the energy crisis, at a time of unprecedented investment needs in generation and grids across the EU. The multiple benefits of enhanced EU energy-market integration should be emphasised. ‘Techno-economic’ benefits can be secured from optimising the design and operation of several national electricity systems jointly, rather than individually. These benefits will increase massively with higher shares of renewables and include less fossil-fuel burn and less volatile short-term prices, cost savings through harnessing regional renewables advantages, reduced need for expensive back-up capacity and flexibility, and enhanced resilience to shocks. In addition, greater energy-market integration will trigger benefits of a more managerial-governance related nature, though these are harder to quantify. They include benefits in terms of competition, innovation and credibility, which are particularly useful in the electricity sector, which typically faces rather long investment times and high degrees of concentration in purely national markets. Further market integration requires substantial political investment. Governments will need to deal with significant distributional effects within and between countries. Experience has shown that domestic political constraints in this respect are often numerous and difficult to overcome. Therefore, achieving the benefits of integration will require a vision on what degree of integration is feasible and desirable, and how to properly implement and govern it. It will also require an honest acknowledgement of the implications and costs of not pursuing greater integration.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Regional Integration, Electricity, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

33. The chicken-and-egg problem in the European Union Digital Markets Act

Author:: Fiona Scott Morton
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The gatekeeper platforms regulated by the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) must comply with the law as of 6 March 2024. The DMA requires that core platform services create and make available interfaces that allow business users to access end users via the platform at lower cost and on better terms. For example, app developers will have the right to distribute on handsets through different app stores, using different payment services, directing users to purchase content on the web and charging different prices in different channels. The gatekeeper must provide the application programming interfaces, or APIs, to enable business users to take advantage of these rights. However, the DMA does not define exactly what those APIs should be. Rather, the law requires a gatekeeper’s interface to be “effective,” meaning business users can use it to enter, compete and innovate. Because such a design is not, in general, in the interest of the gatekeeper, the input of business users to both gatekeepers and the European Commission is critical for evaluating compliance with the law. Thus far there is little evidence of platforms interacting with business users or putting out interfaces for evaluation by business users, or of business users offering comments on what interfaces would be best for entry and competition. It may be that the interface must come first, and then its existence will stimulate entry of new business users or investment into new services that will use the interface. Rather like the chicken and the egg, which should come first? Business users are needed to help create useful interfaces, while useful interfaces are needed to justify investment and entry by business users.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Investment, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:: Europe

34. The Polish Economy 2023 and Beyond: How to Mend Home Loans

Author:: Andrzej Reich, Dariusz Filar, and Michal Polasik
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The subject of this publication, reflecting the discussion held between experts on 30 March 2023, is that of housing loans in Poland. The publication focuses primarily on discussing the state of mortgages (at the end of the first quarter of 2023). This state is the effect of (a) legislation, (b) institutional solutions, (c) past processes in the financing of housing loans, and recently also (d) the high level of inflation dampening both lending by the banks and the level of interest among bank customers. The publication's second purpose is to present recommendations which, once put into effect, could rectify today’s lamentable situation. All of the proposals presented in this publication lead to one general recommendation: the answer to the current shortcomings lies not in isolated, single changes; what is essential is a new system for the market. This new system should be (a) flexible, (b) free of legal risk while at the same time (c) better protected against market risk, and (d) it should also contain a more comprehensive range of products; on this market (e) the state, as the regulator, should intervene ex-ante and not only ex-post (as has been the case in Poland for the last 20 years), while (f) customers should have the essential minimum of financial knowledge, first and foremost regarding awareness of the risk related to, which by their very nature are long-term loans.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Interest Rates, Risk, Mortgages, Banking, Loans, and Financial Education
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

35. How Safe is Eastern Mediterranean Gas?

Author:: Colby Connelly, Gregory Brew, and Karen Young
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss the security of offshore gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the state of the international gas market given the ongoing tension and conflict in the Middle East.
Topic:: Security, Markets, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean

36. India’s Service Sector: New Areas for Future Cooperation

Author:: Hyoungmin Han
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Given the growing significance of the Indo-Pacific region, the strategic importance of India is on the rise. With its considerable population and economic potential, India offers many opportunities for cooperation in various sectors. However, past cooperation between Korea and India has focused on the manufacturing sector. In order to consolidate economic ties be-tween Korea and India and to access the growing Indian market, cooperation in various industries, including services, is necessary. In this article, we will explore key aspects of India’s service industry and policy implications for better cooperation between two countries.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

37. The Russia Factor in China’s Relations with the West

Author:: Klaus W. Larres and Lea Thome
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Tension between China and the Western world has been a characteristic of global affairs for the better part of the last decade. Notwithstanding Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States continues to view China as its greatest global rival and competitor. In fact, many policymakers in Washington (though by no means all of them) view China as an existential threat to America’s global influence and predominance. As the European Union and its 27 member states are not among the world’s superpowers, the Europeans have a somewhat more relaxed attitude toward China. Still, according to an important policy statement issued by the EU Commission in 2019, Brussels has come to see Beijing not only as a “partner and competitor” but also as a serious “systemic rival.” This refers less to geopolitical concerns but very much to global governance issues and geoeconomic, trade, and investment relations with China. The EU is deeply concerned about the continuing lack of reciprocity of market access, intellectual property theft, and China’s frequently state-subsidized competition regarding cutting-edge technology products, including solar panels, EV vehicles, and many other products, which may soon swamp the EU market. The EU Commission has launched an investigation into China’s production of EV vehicles and also Beijing’s shipbuilding industry, which it suspects may well work on the basis of rather unfair and highly subsidized support from the Chinese state.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Markets, Geopolitics, Economy, Strategic Competition, and Production
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

38. The Battle for Green Supremacy: Carbon Markets, Artificial Intelligence, and the Problem of Climate Finance

Author:: Carlos Roa and Shubham Dwivedi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Observe the bee as it pollinates flowers, fruits, vegetables, and a wide variety of other crops; according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, around one-third of the world’s food production depends on their little wings. Watch as the beaver builds its dam, shaping the landscape of its local environment. Its pond stores carbon, improves water quality, creates a suitable habitat to support biodiversity, and helps reduce climate impacts. One cannot help but conclude that some higher order guides the work of these and other creatures; someone or something seems to be managing the delicate ecology of our world. Unfortunately, human beings are not as adept at such complex environmental management. As the world increasingly bears witness to the dramatic effects of climate change, the urgency for decisive action has never been more critical. With the planet’s average temperature continuing to rise, resulting in more frequent, severe, and unusual weather events, the global community faces a stark reminder of the imperative to mitigate this environmental degradation. The upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Baku (COP29) represents a pivotal moment for states to commit to ambitious strategies and deepen international collaboration in the fight against climate change. At the forefront is the pressing need to explore and affordably implement effective mechanisms that can significantly reduce carbon emissions on a global scale.
Topic:: Markets, Climate Finance, Artificial Intelligence, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

39. Competing Ideas: Canada’s Competition Reform Conversation

Author:: Vass Bednar and Keldon Bester
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The Government of Canada’s recent review of and updates to the Competition Act have sparked a closer examination of how competition is protected and promoted in Canada. Competition affects all Canadians, especially in the face of rising costs of living and a shrinking number of competitors in key markets. Yet the laws that govern competition are not easily understood by average consumers, leaving them out of the public policy conversation. This paper looks at why better competition law is needed and examines previous reform efforts.
Topic:: Markets, Reform, Public Policy, and Competition
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

40. Is Guanxi Changing? Referral Hiring and Social Networks in China

Author:: Elena Obukhova and Yao Lu
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: What is the role of guanxi in China today? To answer this question, Professor Elena Obukhova examines the relationship between social networks and referral hiring. In the first study, she compares China and the US. In the second study, she explores differences between China’s provinces. This event is part of the 2023-2024 lecture series on “Labor Market Transformations in China" and is hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by Columbia's China Center for Social Policy.
Topic:: Markets, Labor Issues, Social Networks, and Hiring
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

41. Tracking the Trend of Quinoa Price in Bolivia: Structural Breaks and Persistence of Shocks

Author:: Javier Aliaga Lordemann, Ignacio Garrón Vedia, and María Cecilia Lenis Abastoflor
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:: Quinoa has evolved considerably in the past decades, becoming consolidated as a fundamental pillar for Andean farming communities and emerging as a prominent actor in the global superfood market. Despite this, prices of this grain have been characterized by complex dynamics, with substantial fluctuations that directly affect smallholder income. The goal of this research is to analyze Bolivian quinoa price dynamics, identifying both the main events and factors that caused structural breaks in the price trend and the persistence of shocks in time. The approach employed combines, on the one hand, an analysis of the structural breaks by means of the Bai and Perron contrast, together with estimates of long memory using the 2ELW estimator. Also evaluated was the influence of exogenous variables that affect prices, for which the world commodity activity index (Index of Global Real Economic Activity), the Oceanic Niño Index and world quinoa production were considered. The findings show multiple structural breaks in the quinoa price series, related to certain key events. Among the latter are for example changes in research and development, the production and sales boom, and the boost prompted by State initiatives and international cooperation. These breaks are also related to different degrees of persistence in the shocks under the different regimes identified. Although the exogenous variables show no significant short-term effects, it is understood that they may have a relevant influence in different periods. The present study shows the complexity of Bolivian quinoa price dynamics, characterized by several structural breaks. To take proper advantage of this market, producers and policy makers must implement flexible strategies, as well as continuous monitoring of the sector’s progress, considering the key factors that induced price trend changes over the years.
Topic:: Markets, Memory, Price, Quinoa, and Structural Breaks
Political Geography:: South America, Bolivia, and Andes

42. Current Situation and Prospects of the Quinoa Sector in Bolivia

Author:: Rubén Collao P. and Beatriz Muriel Hernández
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:: We analyze the quinoa sector situation and prospects in Bolivia, based on both secondary and primary information sources (i.e. surveys of producers and interviews to key actors). The quinoa sector has sustainability problems in production, market shares and price volatility. However, this grain – specifically the royal quinoa from the Southern Altiplano – has great potential to remain in the world market within niches that value organic or regenerative production, as well as to increase national consumption. In this regard, we believe that it is necessary to impulse the quinoa transformation with greater diversification, productive complementation and coordination between the various stakeholders. In this productive dynamics, small quinoa producers can insert themselves into the value chain, which requires the strengthening of their hard and soft skills, as well as greater technical assistance. Finally, the quinoa sector sustainability requires a comprehensive approach that includes good agricultural practices caring the environment, as well as more conscious consumption.
Topic:: Markets, Sustainability, Value Chains, and Quinoa
Political Geography:: South America and Bolivia

43. Designing a New Paradigm in Global Trade

Author:: Ryan Mulholland, Trevor Sutton, and Timothy Meyer
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: How a successful Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum could function while delivering maximum benefits to workers and the environment.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Sustainability, and Metals
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

44. Concentrating Intelligence: Scaling and Market Structure in Artificial Intelligence

Author:: Anton Korinek and Jai Vipra
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper examines the evolving structure and competition dynamics of the rapidly growing market for foundation models, focusing on large language models (LLMs). We describe the technological characteristics that shape the industry and have given rise to fierce competition among the leading players. The paper analyzes the cost structure of foundation models, emphasizing the importance of key inputs such as computational resources, data, and talent, and identifies significant economies of scale and scope that may create a tendency towards greater market concentration in the future. We explore two concerns for competition, the risk of market tipping and the implications of vertical integration, and use our analysis to inform policy remedies to maintain a competitive landscape.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Business, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Large Language Models (LLMs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Russia’s War in Ukraine Series: War and Industry

Author:: Stanislav Zhelikhovskyi
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Since the first days of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has needed huge volumes of weapons and ammunition for a war that is inherently asymmetrical, largely relying on the capabilities that it had—Soviet and domestically produced weapons—and on donations from partner countries. However, it has become clear that the approach is inadequate, especially if there are interruptions in supplies from outside, and that the restoration of Ukraine’s own military-industrial complex is vital to ensuring its security and defence capability, independence, and victory. In the fourth brief of the series, Stanislav Zhelikhovskyi discusses how ammunition and equipment supply shortages provided the impetus for the revival of the national defence industry and for the repurposing of civilian industry to meet the wartime needs of the armed forces. He also highlights the importance of harnessing the potential of Ukraine’s vibrant high-tech innovation ecosystem, and attracting foreign investments to expand the country’s defence industrial base and integrate it with the European defence industry.
Topic:: Markets, Weapons, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

46. Pax Economica: An Interview with Marc-William Palen

Author:: Seokju Oh and Marc-William Palen
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: In his new book Pax Economica: Left-Wing Visions of a Free Trade World (Princeton University Press, 2024), historian Marc-William Palen offers a counter-history of free trade as an ideology and policy. In the nineteenth century, before it became a cherished possession of the Right, free trade was proudly claimed as their own by Left-wing activists, intellectuals, and politicians, those who were unswervingly committed to equality for all and peace among nations. Palen recovers this forgotten history of the “Left-wing free traders” of the late-nineteenth century, showing how liberal radicals, socialists, feminists, and Christian pacifists all viewed free trade as the key antidote to the social problems they encountered. Palen also upends the conventional understanding of the world of the late nineteenth and the early-twentieth centuries and argues that the fin-de-siècle was not the “Golden Age’ of the First Globalization, but actually the “Iron Age” of market enclosures and imperial competition. In February 2024, I had a great pleasure to discuss Pax Economica with Palen. Below is an edited version of the conversation.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Markets, History, Free Trade, and Interview
Political Geography:: Global Focus

47. Citizenship Hierarchies: Talent Programs, Commodification Debates and Citizenship at the Nexus of Market and Desirability Logics

Author:: Özlem Altan Olcay and Evren Balta
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: In recent years, an increasing number of nations have developed and institutionalized immigration programs aimed at attracting high-net-worth individuals, promising expedited residency and, in many cases, a streamlined path to citizenship. These initiatives target individuals expected to contribute economically, whether through immediate financial investments, capital transfers, or desirable professional skills deemed essential for national economic competitiveness. This article critically examines the rise of talent programs against the backdrop of scholarship studying investment-based citizenship schemes. While there is a developed literature studying investment-based citizenship programs and criticizing the imposition of neoliberal rationalities on state-induced meanings and practices of citizenship, there is less attention paid to the implications of these so-called merit-based citizenship programs. We argue that both sets of schemes follow a neoliberal market logic, prioritizing immigrants based on their perceived economic value. We explore how these programs disembed potential immigrants from their social contexts and perpetuate market-based inequalities. Thus, we propose that despite the distinctions often made between talent programs and investment schemes, both contribute to the reinforcement of a global citizenship hierarchy. Drawing on examples from Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries’ skilled migration initiatives, we demonstrate how these programs shape discourses of selectivity and “deservingness” for future citizenship. Through a comprehensive analysis of legal frameworks and policy databases, the study highlights the complex interplay between migration policies, commodification of citizenship, and global hierarchies. Ultimately, it calls for a deeper understanding of the continuities and transformations in citizenship logics enabled by the infusion of market dynamics into migration policies.
Topic:: Markets, Migration, Inequality, Citizenship, Hierarchy, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

48. VIP Pass to Markets: When Customs Certification Helps Firms to Face NTMs

Author:: Charlotte Emlinger and Houssein Guimbard
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper aims to assess how trade facilitation measures reduce the costs induced by non-tariff measures (NTMs). It focuses on the Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) certification, a firm-level trade facilitation measure defined by the World Customs Organization. This status allows firms to benefit from customs simplifications at the border, reduced physical and document-based controls, and priority treatment. We use an original and exhaustive dataset of French firms certified as AEO by the European Customs, merged with firm level trade from the French Customs. Our empirical strategy is to compare the export structure of firms before and after their certification to see whether the impact of NTMs on trade can be reduced by trade facilitation measures. Our results show that the AEO status enhances trade, but only when facing NTMs in the destination market. This confirms that some of the trade costs generated by NTMs are administrative in nature and can be reduced by pre-certifying firms. Our conclusion is informative about the kind of trade cost reductions that could be achieved by trade agreements that go beyond tariff reductions, without hindering the level of actual regulation.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Tariffs, Trade, and Customs
Political Geography:: Europe and France

49. A Structural Equation Model Application For Global Innovation Input Dimension To Affect Output Dimension

Author:: Furkan Fahri Altıntaş
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Purpose - The influence of the innovation input dimen-sion on the innovation output dimension has been meas-ured based on the values of the GII criteria of the coun-tries specified in the Global Innovation Index (GII) re-ports. Methodology/Approach/Design- The effects of the in-novation input dimension on the innovation output di-mension has been measured using a structural equation model with the relevant values indicated in the GII re-ports for the years 2008 to 2022 for each country. Findings Firstly, It has been ascertained that the input dimension of the innovation has a notable and construc-tive effect on the output dimension. Secondly, it has been observed that the criteria contributing the most to the relational structure are 'institutions', 'human capital and research', 'infrastructure', and 'market sophistica-tion'. Originality/Value- The assessment of this study sug-gests a potential contribution to the field of innovation. Additionally, significant revelations have been obtained regarding the augmentation of the global interplay be-tween the innovation input and output of various coun-tries, precisely determining the specific innovation input criteria that require refinement.
Topic:: Markets, Infrastructure, Human Capital, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

50. Impacts of Trade Diversion from China in the United States Market on Wages in a Third Country: Evidence from Thailand

Author:: Kazunobu Hayakawa and Sasatra Sudsawasd
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Since the latter half of the 2010s, China’s exports to the United States (US) have gradually decreased due to the US-China trade war and other factors, such as lockdown measures in China to combat COVID-19. This decrease has resulted in increasing exports from third countries, including Thailand, to the US market by substituting China’s exports, i.e. trade diversion. Against this backdrop, this study empirically investigates how the changes in exports to the US driven by the change in China’s exports to the US affect wages in Thailand. Especially, we examine the heterogeneous effects according to workers’ characteristics. To this end, we conduct regression analyses using individual-level quarterly data from the first quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2023. Our main finding is that the wage gap between low- and middle-skilled workers decreased, whilst the gap between middle- and high-skilled workers increased. Namely, the increased exports to the US caused ‘wage polarisation’ in Thailand. We also find that the increase in exports to the US contributed to expanding the wage gap by age but narrowing it by gender.
Topic:: Markets, Trade Wars, Exports, and Wages
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Thailand, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS