Topic: International Relations - CIAO Search Results

3301. How the Axis of Evil Metaphor Changes Iranian Images of the USA

Author:: Daniel Heradstveit and G. Matthew Bonham
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The respondents feared an American attack, and regarded their membership in «the Axis of Evil» as a stab in the back after Iranian help in Afghanistan. This demonisation was seen overwhelmingly in terms of American geopolitical designs, ignorance and downright irrationality – an expansionist superpower that is dangerously out of control. The WTC attack initially caused a strengthening of Iranian national unity and a more coherent foreign policy, but most of the respondents regard «the Axis of Evil» as killing the nascent dialogue with the USA stone dead and coming as a godsend to the conservatives and the ultras.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, America, Iran, and Middle East

3302. The Requirements of European International Society: Modernity and Nationalism in the Ottoman Empire

Author:: Ayla GÖL
Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:: This paper critically examines the 'admittance' of the Ottoman Empire as the first non-European and non-Christian state into European international society, challenges the idea that international society had a universal character, and explores how the Empire encountered and adapted to the requirements of this society. There are two premises to explore. First, the Empire was never accepted as an equal member of the European society of states. Second, the Ottoman Empire's desire to enter European international society initiated its modernisation, which gradually led to the emergence of Turkish nationalism in the twentieth century. The first part of this paper deals with the 'otherness' of the Ottoman Empire within European international society. The second part explains the paradoxical character of Ottoman–European relations, which initiated the Empire's modernisation. The last part explores the emergence of Turkish nationalism in relation to the policies of Ottoman modernisation that brought the transition from an Islamic empire into a modern secular nation-state. It concludes by questioning whether or not the modern Turkish state is considered a European member of international society.
Topic:: International Relations and Nationalism
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

3303. The Neo-Roman Republican Legacy and International Political Theory

Author:: Steven Slaughter
Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:: This paper claims that established accounts of international political theory overlook the neo-roman strand of republican political theory. It seeks to address this case of neglect and extend republican observations into international political theory in three steps. The first step examines the nature of international political theory. The second step examines the neo-roman strand of republicanism's conception of liberty and the institutions whereby this type of liberty is secured. Lastly, the main elements of a republican approach to international political theory are developed in a way that highlights republicanism's institutional approach to world politics and its commitment to the state.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Government, and Politics

3304. Reimagining International Society Through the Emergence of Japanese Imperialism

Author:: Shogo Suzuki
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:: In the not too distant past Timothy Dunne asserted that '[International] society is what states have made of it'. Since then much has been written about how the English School offers a valuable interpretivist approach, how it has spread across the world, how it can be improved, and what it has to say about non-European societies and 'world society'. This paper aims to contribute to all three facets of the debate through a case study of how the Japanese elite understood international society during the bakumatsu (late-Tokugawa)/early-Meiji periods (1853-95). In doing so, it examines the emergence of Japanese imperialism from the perspective of international society as perceived by English School scholars.
Topic:: International Relations and Development
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Europe, and Asia

3305. Does China Matter? The Global Economic Issues

Author:: Stuart Harris
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:: In 1999, Gerry Segal, then Director of Research at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, wrote an article in Foreign Affairs entitled 'Does China matter?'. His article ranged across economic, political and strategic issues but his overall conclusion was that China's importance had been greatly exaggerated. As far as economic questions were concerned, Segal saw China as a small market 'that matters little to the world, especially outside Asia'.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Globalization
Political Geography:: China and Asia

3306. To Give or Not to Give: The Crisis of Confidence in Charities

Author:: Paul C. Light
Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Public confidence is essential to America's 1.5 million charitable organizations and the 11 million Americans they employ. Confidence clearly affects the public's willingness to donate time and money, shapes the political and regulatory environment that governs charitable organizations, and has at least some influence on morale within the charitable workforce.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: America

3307. Building Intelligence to Fight Terrorism

Author:: James B. Steinberg, Mary Graham, and Andrew Eggers
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: The Bush administration has begun to revise cold war rules governing national security information in order to counter terrorist threats to the United States. The president's homeland security plan calls for new intelligence efforts to protect the nation's borders, defend against threats within the United States, minimize infrastructure vulnerabilities, and improve emergency responses. Congress has given the new Department of Homeland Security responsibility for coordinating these strategies and assuring that accurate and complete information gets to those who need it.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States

3308. Promoting the Rule of Law Abroad: The Problem of Knowledge

Author:: Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Although the current rule-of-law promotion field is still expanding as it approaches the end of its second decade, it still faces a lack of knowledge at many levels of conception, operation, and evaluation. There is a surprising amount of uncertainty, for example, about the twin rationales of rule-of-law promotion—that promoting the rule of law will contribute to economic development and democratization. There is also uncertainty about what the essence of the rule of law actually is—whether it primarily resides in certain institutional configurations or in more diffuse normative structures. Rule-of-law promoters are also short of knowledge about how the rule of law develops in societies and how such development can be stimulated beyond simplistic efforts to copy institutional forms. And the question of what kinds of larger societal effects will result from specific changes in rule-of-law institutions is also still open. Although aid institutions engaged in rule-of-law assistance do attempt some—lessons learned—exercises, many of the lessons produced are superficial and even those are often not really learned. Several substantial obstacles to greater knowledge accumulation in this field persist, including the complexity of the task of promoting the rule of law, the particularity of legal systems, the unwillingness of aid organizations to invest sufficient resources in evaluations, and the tendency of both academics and lawyers not to pursue systematic empirical research on rule-of-law aid programs. Whether rule-of-law aid is on the path to becoming a well-grounded field of international assistance remains uncertain.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: Latin America

3309. Mending the U.S.-European Rift over the Middle East

Author:: Leon T. Hadar
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The war in Iraq has created tensions between the United States and some of its leading allies in Europe and exposed a deep diplomatic rift between the traditional transatlantic security partners. The controversy over Iraq has also ignited strong anti-American sentiments and threatened international cooperation in the war against Al Qaeda.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Europe, and Middle East

3310. Casualties of War: Transatlantic Relations and the Future of NATO in the Wake of the Second Gulf War

Author:: Christopher Layne
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The Iraq War represents a turning point in transatlantic relations. Euro-American ties have been ruptured, and never again will be the same. But the growing estrangement between the European powers and the United States is tied primarily to the nature of power in the international system and to America's dominant role in the world today.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and America

3311. Europe between Brussels and Byzantium: Some Thoughts on European Integration

Author:: Niall Ferguson
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: There is, in theory, a plausible role for the European Union as the partner of a militarily assertive United States: the peacekeeper that follows in the wake of the peacemaker. The war in Iraq, however, has raised the possibility of a diametrically different role for Europe: as a potential imperial rival to the United States. There is no need to invoke the memory of either Rome or Byzantium to make the case that Europe is capable of spoiling America's unipolar party. The successful conclusion of accession agreements with ten new member countries – not to mention the sustained appreciation of the euro against the dollar since Kennedy's article appeared – have seemingly vindicated this analysis. So too, in the eyes of some commentators, has the vociferous and not wholly ineffectual opposition of at least some E.U. member states to American policy in Iraq. If the U.S. has an imperial rival today, then the E.U. appears to be it.
Topic:: International Relations and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Europe, Rome, and Brussels

3312. From Alliances to Ambivalence: The Search for a Transatlantic Agenda In the 21st Century

Author:: Jackson Janes
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: During the Cold War, European-American relations were often marked by differences over tactics, but we did share for the most part a strategic goal that was to be achieved on the basis of the twin principles of deterrence and détente. Yet there are some that would argue that this past year has been different; that the transatlantic rift goes deeper and will last longer. If the Americans and Europeans cannot find common ground in certain regulatory areas, it may be that we will agree to disagree on the use of GMO's, technological standards, or Anti-trust legislation. This could lead to more competition but also to duplication in an increasingly interwoven global market. Yet, because we face a vastly more complicated environment today than during previous years — full of threats and opportunities — it will remain a challenge for the coming decade to strategize as to how transatlantic political policy problems can best be dealt with.
Topic:: International Relations, Cold War, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

3313. Europe's Identity and Islams

Author:: Renate Holub
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Until the break-up of the Soviet Union, dominant intellectual and educational cultures in Europe worked primarily with national concepts. In the twentieth century, nationalist ideologies have, of course, lost some of their glamour due to the impact of two disastrous world wars. But while leading European intellectuals over the past 50 years developed a research program that transcended the national spirit, they nonetheless remained bound by the concept of “modernity,” which comprises the concept of the modern nation state and the modern nation state system. Steeped in this cultural unconscious, Europe has neglected the systematic study of alternative modernities and alternative systems of governmentality -- including systems of democratic governmentality in the internet age -- especially as these alternative modernities relate to the influx of Muslim populations.
Topic:: International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, and Population
Political Geography:: Europe, Soviet Union, and Arabia

3314. Problem-Solving Effectiveness and Democratic Accountability in the EU

Author:: Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: The paper begins by examining the functions of input-oriented and output-oriented legitimating arguments in liberal democracies. At the European level, input-oriented arguments remain weak, but legitimacy problems are generally avoided since the policies which can in fact be adopted under prevailing institutional conditions are still based on broad intergovernmental consensus. For a variety of new policy challenges, however, consensus on the choice of European solutions is unlikely to be reached, even though member states are unable to cope with such challenges on their own. Among the examples discussed are the notorious problems of a common foreign, security and defense policy and the spillovers of European economic integration that are challenging national welfare regimes. The resulting problem-solving gaps, which may undermine political legitimacy nationally and in the EU, could not be legitimately overcome by moving from consensual to majoritarian governing modes at the European level. What could help are modes of differentiated integration which allow groups of member states to adopt consensual European solutions applying only to members of the group.
Topic:: International Relations and Civil Society
Political Geography:: Europe

3315. Asylum Migration and Implications for Countries of Origin

Author:: Khalid Koser and Nicholas Van Hear
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The purpose of this paper is to synthesize what is known about the influence of asylum migration on countries of origin. It combines an analysis of data, a review of the literature and empirical examples from our own research. In the first section we consider the effects of the absence of refugees on countries of origin, focusing on the scale of movements, the characteristics of refugees, where they go and their length of time in exile. In the second section, we review the evidence about the influence of asylum-seekers and refugees on their country of origin from exile. Third, we consider the implications for countries of origin of the return of asylum-seekers and refugees. The conclusion acknowledges the limited state of current knowledge and draws out some policy implications.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development, Human Welfare, and Migration

3316. Asylum-seekers as Pariahs in the Australian State: Security Against the Few

Author:: Claudia Tazreiter
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: During the last decade measures of overt and covert surveillance, information sharing and deterrence of the illegal movement of people has increased within and between states. Border security has come to dominate international relations, and increasingly to deflect the needs of asylum-seekers who search for a state that will offer them substantive protection under the Refugee Convention. Measures of internal and external deterrence diminish the reality of protection to genuine refugees as some of the most vulnerable individuals in the world today. Australia, as a country of relative geographic isolation, has not experienced the large-scale influxes of asylum-seekers seen in many parts of the world. Notwithstanding this, the Australian Government has in recent years implemented harsh policy and administrative measures directed at asylum-seekers with a substantial measure of public support. In August 2001, an incident involving 433 asylum-seekers was branded in popular discourse an 'asylum crisis'. This incident involved a Norwegian freighter, the Tampa, which picked up survivors from a sinking boat who were making their way to Australian waters in order seek protection under the Refugee Convention. The Tampa was repelled by Australian security forces from disembarking the people they had picked up in distress on Australian soil. In this article, I explore the Tampa incident against the backdrop of refugee policy development from 1999. I argue that rather than responding to a crisis, the Australian government has generated the perception of a crisis in the Australian community. Implications of the Australian response to asylum-seekers are significant not only in the Asia/Pacific region, but further afield, as policy responses toward asylum-seekers by receiving states have converged in the recent past.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Human Welfare, and Migration
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

3317. Toward a European Strategy for Iraq

Author:: Giacomo Luciani and Felix Neugart
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The Iraq crisis has been a disaster for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) of the European Union (EU). Member countries are very visibly split in their position towards the war against the regime in Baghdad. EU institutions have been unable to agree on more than the unconditional implementation of the relevant United Nations resolutions leaving the door open for widely diverging interpretations. The challenge of the Iraq crisis does not bode well for the future of a cohesive European Foreign Policy, and the CFSP requires a fresh approach.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and United Nations

3318. In the Shadow of a Cease-fire: The Impacts of Small Arms Availability and Misuse in Sri Lanka

Author:: Chris Smith
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Sri Lanka appears to be entering the final chapter of the 20-year civil war between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Although it may be too early to assess, and the peace process is currently stalled, it does seem that the LTTE is more serious about a sustained peace process than at any time since the violence erupted in 1983.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: Asia and Sri Lanka

3319. Beyond the Kalashnikov: Small Arms Production, Exports, and Stockpiles in the Russian Federation

Author:: Anna Matveeva, Maria Haug, and Maxim Pyadushkin
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: This paper analyzes various aspects of the small arms issue in the Russian Federation. There are a number of reasons why a specific study of Russian small arms issues is helpful for policy-makers and researchers interested in small arms and light weapons (SALW). Russia is one of the world's major producers and exporters of SALW. The most successful and famous military assault rifle, the Kalashnikov, originated in the former Soviet Union. While the original rifle is no longer produced in Russia, its derivatives are still in production. The Russian Federation is also a country dealing with internal problems where the availability of small arms exacerbates the situation. These include regions of conflict, such as Chechnya, or problems of crime and personal security in big cities such as Moscow. Various methods have been used to retrieve illegally held small arms from Russian society, including regional buy-back programmes.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: Russia and Soviet Union

3320. Demand, Stockpiles, and Social Controls: Small Arms in Yemen

Author:: Derek B. Miller
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: This paper draws strong conclusions about the dynamics of stockpiles and holdings, demand factors for small arms, and the significance of social controls on individual and community behaviour in Yemen.Using a new method, devised uniquely for this study, to estimate small arms availability at the local level, it is believed that Yemen has between 6-9 million small arms, most of which are from the former Eastern Bloc countries or China, with fewer numbers of various makes and models from other countries, some dating back to the early nineteenth century. This dramatically reduces the popular estimate of Yemen having 50 million small arms. However, this revised estimate includes only an educated guess as to the actual number of weapons in state stockpiles, as well as those in the hands of tribal sheikhs. Though severely reduced, this new figure does not undermine Yemen's status as one of the world's most heavily armed societies, but certainly not the most armed, when one considers both per capita weaponry and their high level of lethality.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

3321. Small Arms in the Pacific

Author:: Philip Alpers and Conor Twyford
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: This study examines a wide range of small arms-related issues in 20 nations of the southern Pacific. It investigates the status of existing firearm legislation, the extent of legal stockpiles and illicit trade, and the socio-economic impacts of armed conflict on Pacific communities. Case histories examine more closely the disarmament process in Bougainville and the Solomon Islands, along with the widespread disruption wrought with small arms in Fiji and Papua New Guinea. Current initiatives to combat small arms trafficking in the region are also examined.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific, Island, and Guinea

3322. Constructivism and the Role of Institutions in International Relations

Author:: Stefano Guzzini
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Although Italy, in comparison to its Northern neighbours, is not a country of constructivists (Lucarelli and Menotti 2002), many of the themes crucial to constructivism are common currency in Italian academia. For constructivism stands for a series of debates in social theory which made a perhaps late yet virulent intrusion into the discipline of International Relations. Its content is probably best understood as the focus which bundles recent discussions on epistemology and the sociology of knowledge, on the agent-structure debate and the ontological status of social facts, and on the reciprocal relationship between these two.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Europe

3323. A Europe without Divides? The EU-Russia Partnership and the Case of Virtual Borders

Author:: Tarja Cronberg
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This paper is about a partnership, the aim of which is to create a Europe without divides. A partnership where the vision is to transcend the divide between membership and non-membership and to create co-operation in trade, in stability and security, and in democracy on all levels. The paper examines the implementation of the EU-Russia partnership and its strategy not only on the rhetorical level but also in a micro-perspective seen from a border region (mostly from the EU-side), from a space where the divides whether economic, social or of any other kind are most clearly manifested. As borders manifest social conflict a study of the implementation of the partnership agreement on this micro-level will make visible not only the taken-for-granted assumptions and practices but also new and emerging divides. As a concrete case the creation of a European information society is studied. Will the partners be united in virtual space without divides? Conclusions are drawn on the nature of the partnership, the relationship between the partners and the perspective of a Europe without divides.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

3324. Went for Cost, Stayed for Quality?: Moving the Back Office to India

Author:: Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Will the next great wave of globalization come in services? Increasingly, components of back-office services, such as payroll and order fulfillment, and some front-office services, such as customer care, are being relocated from the United States and other developed countries to English-speaking, developing nations—especially India, but also other nations, such as the Philippines. Though moving service activities offshore is not entirely new, the pace has quickened of late. The acceleration of this business process offshoring (BPO) is intertwined, though not synonymous, with another phenomenon, namely an increasing willingness by firms to outsource what formerly were considered core activities. It is significant that a substantial number of service activities might move offshore, because it was once thought that service jobs were the future growth area for developed country economies. Manufacturing, by contrast, would relocate to lower labor cost regions offshore. Notably, the services commonly known as “business processes” (BPs) are among the fastest growing job categories in the United States (Goodman and Steadman 2002). Should these jobs begin to move offshore, a new tendency may be under way in the global economy that will be as or more important than the relocation of manufacturing offshore, and might necessitate a rethinking of government policies across a wide spectrum.
Topic:: International Relations and Globalization
Political Geography:: United States, India, Asia, and Philippines

3325. Finding America's Voice: A Strategy for Reinvigorating U.S. Public Diplomacy

Author:: Peter G. Peterson, Kathy Bloomgarden, Henry Grunwald, David E. Morey, Shibley Telhami, Jennifer Sieg, and Sharon Herbstman
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The United States has a growing problem. Public opinion polls echo what is seen in foreign editorials and headlines, legislative debate, and reports of personal and professional meetings. Anti- Americanism is a regular feature of both mass and elite opinion around the world. A poll by the Times of London, taken just before the Iraq war, found respondents split evenly over who posed a greater threat to world peace, U.S. President George W. Bush or then Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. At the same time, European antiwar protests drew millions, and several national leaders ran successfully on anti- American platforms. Americans at home and abroad face an increased risk of direct attack from individuals and small groups that now wield more destructive power. The amount of discontent in the world bears a direct relationship to the amount of danger Americans face.
Topic:: International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, and Europe

3326. North Korea: A Phased Negotiation Strategy

Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Time is slipping away for a peaceful resolution of the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Israel, East Asia, and North Korea

3327. Taiwan Strait III: The Chance of Peace

Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Apparently irreconcilable positions on the 'one China' principle have emerged between China and Taiwan over the last decade, with Taiwan for some time now asserting not only that it is a separate political entity but an independent sovereign country. China for its part remains absolutely unwilling to compromise its position that Taiwan and the mainland are part of one country, and has not renounced the use of force as a means of making that principle a reality. The risk of war between them must, accordingly, continue to be taken seriously.
Topic:: International Relations, Peace Studies, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

3328. Taiwan Strait II: The Risk of War

Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: China's underlying position on its cross-Strait relations, however strong its current commitment to peaceful diplomacy, is that Taiwan must make sustained, visible progress toward a peaceful settlement or risk a resort to armed hostilities. It has also indicated that any move by Taiwan that might demonstrate its substantive rejection of this new demand could well be the last straw.
Topic:: International Relations, Sovereignty, and War
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

3329. Dividing Papua: How Now To Do It

Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: A presidential instruction (Inpres) issued in January 2003 to divide Papua, Indonesia's easternmost province, into three parts has done more to create tension and turmoil there than any government action in years. The instruction undercuts a special autonomy law passed by the parliament in November 2001 that assumed the province to be a single territorial unit, and it has thrown Papua's administrative status into legal limbo. It undermines moderate intellectuals who saw special autonomy as a way of strengthening Papuan institutions and encouraging independence supporters to work within the Indonesian state. It has infuriated many Papuans, pro-independence and pro-autonomy alike, who have a deep attachment to Papua as a single political unit with a distinct history and who see the decree as a divide-and-rule tactic by Jakarta. All major religious leaders in the province have come out against it.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: South Asia and Indonesia

3330. Pakistan: The Mullahs and the Military

Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The resurgence of the religious parties in the October 2002 elections portends ill for Pakistan's political, cultural and social stability. For the first time in the country's history, an alliance of six major religious parties – the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) – has won power in two provinces, vowing to Islamise state and society through Taliban-like policies. The MMA based its electoral campaign on Islam and anti-U.S. slogans, targeting President Pervez Musharraf's pro-U.S. policies and pledging the enforcement of Sharia law. It now runs the government in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), bordering on Afghanistan, and shares power in Baluchistan.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, South Asia, and Taliban

3331. Multiethnic State, Ethnically Homogenous State and the Future of the Nation-State in the Balkans

Author:: Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:: Approaching and testing the capacity and effectiveness of the nation-states in the Balkans is a long-term research necessity for many reasons: First, despite the tendency of making the state boundaries less and less significant in the era of new information technology, global economy and new communications capabilities the nation-state will remain the key organisational unit of the international system and the features of national sovereignty will continue to dominate and influence the management toolbox of international relations and domestic politics. Hence, any form and nuance of the nation-state in the Balkans will have a decisive meaning for dealing with the political and security agenda of the region.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Globalization
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

3332. Coercion and Risk-Taking in Nuclear South Asia

Author:: Verghese Koithara
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: The partition-bred conflict between India and Pakistan that began in 1947 went into remission in 1971 following India's emphatic victory in war that year. It reemerged in 1989 when serious disaffection in the Kashmir Valley gave Pakistan an opening to promote militancy. This created a dangerous situation because it was about the same time that both Pakistan and India also acquired nuclear weapons. There was a major confrontation between the two countries during March-May 1990. Since then there has been continuous tension with each attempting to coerce the other. In May 1998 both countries carried out several nuclear tests each. A year later, during May-July 1999, the two fought a two-month "limited war" in the Kargil region of Kashmir that caused over 1,200 fatalities. Kargil was a clear effort on Pakistan's part to test the deterrence value of its nuclear weapons. In December 2001 India resorted to an unprecedented military mobilization (Operation Parakram), holding out the clear threat of attacking Pakistan unless the latter stopped its sub-conventional operations.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and India

3333. Why Delegate the Allocation of Foreign Aid to Multilateral Organizations? Principal-Agent Problems and Multilateralism

Author:: Helen Milner
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: Why do countries delegate the distribution of foreign aid to international institutions? Specifically, why have the advanced industrial countries chosen to distribute part of their foreign aid through multilateral organizations, such as the European Union (EU), World Bank, IMF, UN, and regional development banks (RDBs)? The delegation of aid provision to an international institution is puzzling. Why would governments relinquish control over their aid if they are a useful instrument of statecraft? Governments delegate aid delivery to international institutions when their publics lack information about the consequences of aid and fear that their governments will deviate from their wishes concerning its use. By using the international organization to send aid, the government issues a credible signal to voters about the use of foreign aid. This signal leaves all actors better off by helping to solve a principal-agent problem in domestic politics. When publics are skeptical about the benefits of aid, governments are more likely to turn aid over to multilateral organizations in order to reassure taxpayers that their money is being well spent. Using data on about 20 donor countries of the OECD from 1960-2000, I investigate the sources of multilateral giving, showing that public opinion has the expected negative relationship to multilateral aid-giving.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe and United Nations

3334. Analyser les modes de représentation des intérêts dans l'Union européenne : construction d'une problématique

Author:: Sabine Saurugger
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: This article presents conceptual tools to analyse interest representation in the European Union. On the European level, no formal system of representation can be found, but rather a patchwork of representation modes. These modes are influenced by forms of political exchange specific for each country and each political domain, which interact with opportunity structures at the European level. Analysing interest representation in a system of governance, either national, European or international requires taking into account the relations which link interest groups with political and bureaucratic actors at the national level, acknowledging the changes in these relations and to insert all that in a system of governance where actors must find solutions to problems in the management of public policies and not to forget political power games and hierarchies amongst actors. The first part of the article analyses briefly the development of interest group studies in comparative politics as well as in international relations and presents the attempts to systematize these studies undertaken since the 1990. In the second part, I analyse more specifically the network approach, which allows to overcome the cleavage between pluralism and neocorporatism in the study of the relationships between interest groups and state actors. In presenting a critical analysis of the general ideas of the network approach, I propose specific conceptual instruments helping to structure research on interest groups in the European Union.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

3335. CERI: Les relations civilo-militaires en Croatie, 1990-2001

Author:: Jean-François Morel and Renéo Lukic
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: In contrast to most of Eastern and Central European countries that underwent their post-communist transition peacefully, Croatia had to undergo its transition during wartime. The outbreak of the Serbo-Croatian war in Spring 1991 forced Croatia to build rapidly an army to protect its territory. However, at this time, Croatia was an emerging democracy and after the European Community recognised its independence on January 15, 1992, the parliamentary institutions were unable to exert their authority over the Croatian army (Hrvatska vojska, HV). The Croatian President, Franjo Tudjman, and the political party he presided, the HDZ, dominated the HV by way of political penetration. Tudjman, who led Croatia to independence, benefited from a triple legitimacy (political, constitutional and charismatic) that allowed him to exert his power over the HV, much the same as the legitimacy Josip Broz-Tito enjoyed over the Yugoslav National Army in Communist Yugoslavia. The result is that the civil-military regime in Croatia after 1990 suffered from a democratic deficit. After the death of President Franjo Tudjman in December 1999 and the change of majority in the January-February 2000 elections, the new Croatian leadership, particularly President Stjepan Mesic, tried to establish democratic control over the armed forces. However, this aim clashed with the opposition of the Ministry of Defense and of numerous officers still committed to the HDZ. For these reasons, a democratic civil-military regime in Croatia is not yet a reality. However, Croatia has made some progress toward the establishment of a democratic civil-military regime. By trying to join some international organizations (NATO), or by being compelled to cooperate with others (International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, ICTY), Croatia is now in the process of interiorizing the norms concerning the civilian and democratic control of the armed forces upon which these organizations are based. Being a member of the Partnership for Peace (PfP), and wishing to join as soon as possible NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP), Croatia is obliged to move in this direction.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Croatia

3336. CERI: New Perspectives on EU-Member State Relationships

Author:: Simon Bulmer and Christian Lequesne
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: This paper aims to review the "state of the art" for examining EU-member state relations. It recognises first of all that EU-member state relationships are interactive. Member states are key actors in making EU policy, and their role in this process is central to policy-making studies. However, European integration has an important impact upon the member states: the phenomenon that has come to be termed Europeanization. We review the literatures concerned with these two directions of flow: the analytical issues raised and the theoretical perspectives deployed. We then turn to the empirical literature on EU-member state relationships, and how it operationalises the theoretical literatures (if at all). This empirical literature tends to be organised in two ways: individual or comparative studies of member states' relationships with the EU; or studies of the impact of the EU on types of political actor/institution or on policy areas/sectors. We review both these literatures. On the basis of the identified strengths and weaknesses in the different literatures examined, we suggest a research agenda for future theoretical and empirical work.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

3337. International Relations and Comparative Politics: Cooperation or Conflict?

Author:: Jorge Schiavon
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: This article concentrates in providing an answer to two deeply related questions: is the study of International Relations (IR) and Comparative Politics (CP), in methodological and theoretical terms, intrinsically different, essentially identical, or complementary?, and thus, should we see IR as an autonomous and isolated field of study, as a sub-field of CP, or are both IR and CP valid and deeply related areas of study of Political Science (PS)? To answer these questions, the article is divided in three sections. The first section concentrates on the validity of IR as a field of study. The second section is devoted to discuss the methodological compatibility (or not) between IR and CP, using one central theoretical issue as a case of study: the sources of origins of state motivations as explanatory variable of state actions (specifically cooperation or conflict. Finally, the third and last section to the article presents some insights on how IR theories can be linked, and to certain degree improved, taking into account CP theories, using the example of state preferences developed in the second section. The article concludes that IR and CP theories are very similar in methodological and theoretical terms, and thus, they can complement and cross-fertilize each other, "cooperating" to construct better explanations of the actions of political actors in the domestic and international systems.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, and Politics

3338. Structure and Choice in Foreign Policy Analysis

Author:: Peter Trubowitz
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: How do states choose their foreign policies? Most foreign policy analysis relies on structuralist reasoning to answer this question. Realist theory emphasizes a nation's position in the international distribution of power. A second approach focuses on domestic factors and stresses a country's political institutions. Both traditions focus on constraints on state behavior. The future of foreign policy analysis lies in finding ways to incorporate politics and choice into structuralist reasoning. Three main solutions have been proposed: theories that focus on how international pressures affect competing domestic coalitions, rational choices theories that analyze "two level games," and constructivism. This paper proposes an alternative model that views politicians as political entrepreneurs who seek to consolidate domestic power in national arenas that are conditioned by international constraints. The approach is developed and illustrated in a discussion of foreign policy choice in the United States.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States

3339. Work In Progress: The Peace and Governance Programme: At the Interface of Ideas and Policy

Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The mission of the United Nations University is to contribute, through research and capacity building, to efforts to resolve the pressing global problems that are the concern of the United Nations, its Peoples and Member States. The work of the Peace and Governance Programme is a core element of this mission, and one that is complex and demanding. The concept of peace and security is evolving and broadening considerably, both in the worlds of academia and policy. Traditionally, national and international security were mainly defined in military and territorial terms, in an international system characterized by interaction among states. The UN Charter, while ultimately working in the interests of “the peoples,” is predicated on the relationship between unitary states in the maintenance of international peace and security. Within this system, the challenge was traditionally seen as mediating between liberal internationalist and power-political “realist” forces.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, International Organization, and United Nations

3340. Assessing Democratic Oversight of the Armed Forces

Author:: Sander Huisman
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: There is no such thing as the model for democratic control of the armed forces. Perhaps more influential than constitutional arrangements; historical legacies and political cultures are setting conditions. However, a few essentials or principles of democratic oversight can be discerned. This paper aims to provide an overview of the efforts of different post-communist states in establishing democratic oversight over their armed forces. The comparative analysis is based on a study that the staff of the Centre for European Security Studies has conducted last year (Organising National Defences for NATO Membership - The Unexamined Dimension of Aspirants' Readiness for Entry) and the experiences gained from a three-year multi-national programme that CESS has started in 2001 (Democratic Control South East Europe: Parliaments and Parliamentary Staff Education Programme - DEMCON-SEE). This programme is running in seven countries: Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, and Serbia-Montenegro.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:: Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Serbia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, Croatia, and Montenegro

3341. Evaluation of Security Sector Reform and Criteria of Success: Practical Needs and Methodological Problems

Author:: Wilhelm Germann
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: This paper intends to contribute to a systematic consideration of what constitutes success (or failure) in the conduct of Security Sector Reform (SSR). It deliberately refrains from commenting on the substance of the latter. Starting from the premise that realizing the principle of democratic control of armed forces in democratizing and developing countries represents the Archimedean Point and driving element within the overall reform of their respective security sectors the purpose of this paper is to review the need for a normative and methodological framework for evaluation of progress and assessment of success or failure. consider the problems involved in determining, assessing, evaluating and verifying criteria, conditions and factors that are supposed to be instrumental for the achievement of related results.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Development

3342. Security Sector Reform: Concepts and Implementation

Author:: Timothy Edmunds
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Security Sector Reform (SSR) has emerged as a key concept in policy and academic circles in recent years. Its origins stem from two main areas. First, from the development community, who have increasingly acknowledged the important role that the 'security sector' plays in issues of economic development and democratisation. Second from the field of civil-military relations (CMR), particularly in relation to developments in central and eastern Europe, where post communist circumstances have led many analysts to think more holistically about key aspects of the CMR debate. SSR takes a holistic approach to the security sector that manifests itself in two ways. First, by recognising the importance of militarised formations other than the regular armed forces in (civil-military) reform efforts. Second by recognising that the role of security and security sector actors in political and economic reform is important and complex, and not simply limited to questions of military praetorianism and civilian control over the armed forces.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

3343. Principles and Prerequisites of DCAF, Commonalities of the Best Practices in Established Democracies

Author:: Dr. Dietrich Genschel
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: The paper concentrates on the principles and prerequisites of DCAF as followed and applied in established (western) democracies. "Commonality" does not imply adherence to all principles to the same degree and in any detail. National history and tradition do condition the ways in which armed forces are structured and organized, educated, motivated and commanded. "Best practice" does not imply that there are no deviations from the principles and violations of their content. On the other hand the principles themselves take account of dangers of misuse und deviant behavior by providing corrective mechanisms. Overall the principles are guided by a vision of how best democratic and armed forces structures and behavioral features can be harmonized to the benefit of both with clear subordination of the armed forces under democratically legitimized political supremacy, without degrading efficiency and effectiveness.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Politics

3344. International Standards and Obligations: Norms and Criteria for DCAF in the EU, OSCE and OECD Areas

Author:: Owen Greene
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: This paper aims to examine existing and emerging international norms and criteria relating to the security sector and security sector reform amongst EU,OSCE and OECD countries. Security sector reform agendas are wide, and this paper focuses particularly on norms and criteria relating to democratic accountability and control of the security sector. It aims to clarify ways in which normative processes in these areas could contribute to international efforts to promote and assist appropriate security sector reform (SSR).
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Democratization
Political Geography:: Europe

3345. September 11: New Challenges and Problems for Democratic Oversight

Author:: Nicholas Williams
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: The implications of the events of September 11 are not yet fully clear. Generally, national security policies and postures take some time to appreciate the effects of strategic shifts. Even if the lessons are quickly learnt, security structures can be slow to absorb them. European defence structures and capabilities are already subject to the transformation required by the end of east-west confrontation and the arrival in the 1990s of the new demands of crisis management. Yet, over twelve years after the end of the Cold War, the necessary transformations and re-posturing of European armed forces are still under way. This is partly due to the scale of the task; partly the result of the costs of military restructuring (while banking immediately the savings arising from force reductions, Governments have preferred to invest over time in new military capabilities); and partly because there is no great sense of urgency. By definition, crisis management is a question of political choice, rather than a matter of direct national security. Developing the necessary capabilities has been an evolutionary process, subject to the need to manage new programmes within declining defence budgets.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, and Democratization
Political Geography:: Europe

3346. Learning from Case Studies

Author:: Malcolm Chalmers
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: When countries are accepted into NATO membership, it will become more difficult to 'test' them on a pass/fail basis since, by virtue of the fact that they will have been accepted into the 'club', they will already have passed. Increasingly, therefore, some other form of process will be needed in order to promote improvements in democratic control of the armed forces in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and NATO
Political Geography:: Europe

3347. Why Engage in Security Sector Reform Abroad? International Norms, External Democratization and the Role of DCAF

Author:: Gerhard Kümmel
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: The issue of Security Sector Reform (SSR) has gained quite a lot of interest within the last decade both in politics and in academia. However there is no consensus or agreement on what is actually meant by SSR and how it is to be defined. To map the scope of the debate, Timothy Edmunds (2001: 1) distinguishes two approaches to delineate what SSR refers to: "The first is concerned with those militarised formations authorised by the state to utilise force to protect the state itself and its citizens. This definition limits SSR to organisations such as the regular military, paramilitary police forces and the intelligence services. The second approach takes a wider view of SSR, defining it as those organisations and activities concerned with the provision of security (broadly defined), and including organisations and institutions ranging from, for example, private security guards to the judiciary." The first approach may be regarded as constituting something like the minimum consensus on what SSR includes and, thus, seems to be quite undisputed. Also, the examples Edmunds cites as belonging to the second approach seem to be quite legitimate, albeit with this arguably being more the case for the judiciary than for private security guards. Nevertheless, the real problems with the second approach rest in what is being put into the brackets, namely a broad definition of security. This resonates with the debate about the term, the meaning(s) and the dimensions of security. Within this debate, one may observe an extension of the contents of the term security to include, for example, ecological, cultural, and, quite recently, human dimensions (see Buzan 1991; Daase 1991; Buzan/Waever/de Wilde 1998). As a consequence, if these extended dimensions of security were included in the usage of the term security in SSR, this would surely mean overloading the concept because the number of actors involved in SSR would become legion.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Democratization
Political Geography:: Europe

3348. Macedonia and Southeastern Europe: Analysing Treats and Risks

Author:: Jack Petri
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: It is clear to those who have spent time analysing and defining threats how important it is to do this well. It is not always as clear how to identify some of the more subtle internal non-traditional threats. For defence and military planners, it should be apparent that the work they do in developing an accurate threat analysis is an essential part of the equation used by political leaders to evaluate the form and substance of a nation's armed forces, to determine what resources are necessary to create and sustain defence and military establishments that are capable of successfully dealing with these threats, should it become necessary to do so.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, and National Security
Political Geography:: Europe

3349. US-Russian Lessons for South Asia

Author:: Zia Mia, R. Rajaraman, and Frank von Hippel
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: The current South Asian crisis seems to have ebbed, but the underlying dynamic remains. The next crisis will be even more dangerous if South Asia's nuclear confrontation develops in the same direction as the U.S.-Russian standoff, with nuclear missiles on alert, aimed at each other and ready to launch on warning. As Lee Butler, former head of the U.S. Strategic Command, has said, the U.S. and Soviet Union survived their crises, "no thanks to deterrence, but only by the grace of God." Will South Asia be so fortunate?
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, South Asia, and Asia

3350. The European Union: Energy Security and the Periphery

Author:: John Gault
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Europe relies upon imported energy, and the degree of this reliance will increase in coming decades. Internal (primarily North Sea) production of liquid fuels will decline, and production of natural gas will reach a plateau, so that incremental hydrocarbon requirements will necessarily come from external sources. This trend of rising energy imports has important security implications.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

3351. Transatlantic Relations in a Unipolar World

Author:: William Wohlforth
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The state of transatlantic relations is normal - arguably in crisis, arguably not; poised for fundamental change, or for basic continuity. The usual question for conferences on transatlantic relations is whether this situation will continue. My purpose in this paper is to set forth a perspective on the future of the transatlantic relationship based on the central realist proposition that the distribution of capabilities among states is an important background influence on their behaviour. Major changes in international relations often arise from changes in the distribution of power. Important features of the Cold War resulted from the great concentration of power in the United States and the Soviet Union - a condition that came to be called "bipolarity." The Cold War ended in significant measure owing to changes in the distribution of power - namely, the decline and fall of the Soviet Union. As a result of Soviet and Russian decline, a new unipolar distribution has emerged with new consequences for international politics in general and the transatlantic relationship in particular.
Topic:: International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

3352. Mediterranean Security and Co-Operation: Interest and Role of Italy and Libya

Author:: Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: This paper looks at the international relations across the Mediterranean Sea, between the European countries - in particular, the European Union-EU - and the countries of the Near East and North Africa. In this framework, it tries to define the role of Italy and Libya and the joint actions they can carry out to foster peace and co-operation in the area concerned.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Libya, North Africa, and Italy

3353. Trans-Atlantic Relations: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:: Wolfgang Ischinger
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Institute at University of Wisconsin, Madison
Abstract:: I would like to share some observations about German-American relations, about Afghanistan, about Iraq and the war on terrorism, and about power and the global system. Where does Germany stand today? The recent elections in Germany have brought about a number of significant developments.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, America, Europe, and Germany

3354. Trans-Atlantic Relations: A Norwegian Perspective

Author:: Knut Vollebaek
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Institute at University of Wisconsin, Madison
Abstract:: Gilles Bousquet, Dean of International Studies and Director of the International Institute, welcomed guests to the event. Ambassador Vollebæk was introduced by Alfred Defago, former Swiss ambassador to the United States and currently International Institute Visiting Professor. Professor Defago, who invited Ambassador Vollebæk to the UW–Madison campus in conjunction with his International Studies seminar on “Evolving European Perspectives on American Politics and Society,” described Ambassador Vollebæk as one of Europe's top diplomats and as one of the most influential and intellectually brilliant leaders of the diplomatic community in Washington, D.C. Ambassador Vollebæk, a career diplomat, served as Foreign Minister of Norway from 1997–2000 and in that capacity was chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. A tireless advocate for international human rights, he was a leader in efforts to stop the atrocities in Kosovo and played key roles in monitoring conflicts and brokering negotiations in Chechnya, Sri Lanka and the Middle East.
Topic:: International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, America, Europe, Washington, Middle East, Norway, Chechnya, Sri Lanka, and Kosovo

3355. The Politics of Sanctions

Author:: Simon Chesterman and Béatrice Pouligny
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Do sanctions work? The jury remains out on this question, but two preliminary issues bear further examination also. What are sanctions intended to achieve? And do states actually want sanctions to work? These essentially political questions depend on two discrete dynamics that are the subject of this report, which focuses on sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council. The first is the political context of the Council and how the intentions of key actors are channelled into sanctions regimes. The second is the political economy in which those sanctions operate.
Topic:: International Relations, Peace Studies, Political Economy, and United Nations

3356. Achievements in Building and Maintaining the Rule of Law:MSI's Studies in LAC, E, AFR, and ANE

Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: Over the past two decades the Latin America and Caribbean region (LAC) has undergone a major political transformation. All countries in the region now have elected civilian governments, with the sole exception of Cuba. With this political opening have come economic liberalization and increased opportunities for citizen participation. The region has moved beyond the formality of elections and is now confronting the more difficult challenge of reforming its other political, economic, and legal institutions.
Topic:: International Relations, Civil Society, Diplomacy, and International Law
Political Geography:: Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean

3357. Key Judgments (from October 2002 NIE) - Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction

Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: We judge that Iraq has continued its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs in defiance of UN resolutions and restrictions. Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of UN restrictions; if left unchecked, it probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade. (See INR alternative view at the end of these Key Judgments.)
Topic:: International Relations, United Nations, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

3358. Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Bank Currency Mismatches?

Author:: Carlos Ó. Arteta
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The dollarization of bank deposits and credit is widespread in developing countries, resulting in varying degrees of currency mismatches in domestic financial intermediation, which in turn might accentuate bank balance sheet fragility. It is widely argued that flexible exchange rate regimes encourage banks to match dollar-denominated liabilities with a corresponding amount of dollar-denominated assets, ameliorating currency mismatches. Does the behavior of dollar deposits and credit in financially dollarized economies support that presumption? A new database on deposit and credit dollarization in developing and transition countries is assembled and used to address this question. Empirical results suggest that, if anything, floating regimes seem to exacerbate, rather than ameliorate, currency mismatches in domestic financial intermediation, as those regimes seem to encourage deposit dollarization more strongly than they encourage matching via credit dollarization.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

3359. Identifying the Role of Moral Hazard in International Financial Markets

Author:: Steven B. Kamin
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Considerable attention has been paid to the possibility that large-scale IMF-led financing packages may have distorted incentives in international financial markets, leading private investors to provide more credit to emerging market countries, and at lower interest rates, than might otherwise have been the case. Yet, prior attempts to identify such distortions have yielded mixed evidence, at best. This paper makes three contributions to our ability to assess the empirical importance of moral hazard in international financial markets. First, it is argued that because large international "bailouts" did not commence until the 1995 Mexican crisis, financial indicators prior to that time could not have reflected a significant degree of this type of moral hazard. Therefore, one test for the existence of moral hazard is that the access of emerging markets to international credit is significantly easier than it was prior to 1995. Second, the paper argues that because private investors expect large-scale IMF-led packages to be extended primarily to economically or geo-politically important countries, moral hazard, if it exists, should lead these countries to have easier terms of access to credit than smaller, non-systemically important countries. Finally, in addition to looking at bond spreads, the focus of earlier empirical analyses of moral hazard, the paper also examines trends in capital flows to gauge the access of emerging market countries to external finance. Looking at the evidence in light of these considerations, the paper concludes that there is little support for the view that moral hazard is significantly distorting international capital markets at the present time.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance

3360. On the Fragility of Gains from Trade under Continuously Differentiated Bertrand Competition

Author:: Mario Marazzi
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: One of the most widely accepted principles of economics is the existence of gains from trade for every nation under certain conditions including perfect competition. In the last twenty years, trade economists have revolutionized the field by firmly establishing the possibility of modeling imperfectly competitive international markets. Despite this development, most still agree there are good reasons to believe that gains from trade are still present. However, we show that in the absence of international redistributions the presence of a positive profit sector in a general equilibrium model can lead to a situation in which some nations may lose from the reduction of international trade barriers.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance

3361. The Inflation Persistence of Staggered Contracts

Author:: Luca Guerrieri
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: One of the criticisms routinely advanced against models of the business cycle with staggered contracts is their inability to generate inflation persistence. This paper finds that staggered contracts µa la Taylor are, in fact, capable of reproducing the inflation persistence implied by U.S. data. Following Fuhrer and Moore, I capture the moments that the contract specification needs to replicate by using the correlograms from a small vector autoregression (VAR) that includes inflation among the endogenous variables. A simple structural model substitutes the inflation equation from the VAR with the contract specification. I estimate the contract parameters in the structural model by maximum likelihood. The correlogram for the endogenous variables from the estimated structural model, including that for inflation, are very close to the correlograms from the VAR (and are contained within their 90% confidence intervals). By the same metric, where Taylor contracts do not fare well is in reproducing the cross-correlations between inflation and output.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

3362. Productivity Shocks, Habits, and the Current Account

Author:: Joseph W. Gruber
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Empirical work regarding Intertemporal Current Account (ICA) models has centered around two distinct testing methodologies, present value tests and a productivity shock approach as formulated by Glick and Rogoff (1995). In previous work, Gruber (2001), I have tested and ICA model that allows for habits in aggregate consumption via the present value method. This paper applies the alternative Glick and Rogoff style approach to testing the model. The benefits of doing such are an ability to separate country-specific from worldwide output changes, a distinction of considerable importance, as well as to impose restrictions on the relationship between investment and output, neither of which are possible in the present value framework. The results of the test are supportive of the existence of habits and coincide with the results of Gruber (2001). The degree of habit persistence implied by the model is estimated for the G-7 countries. The paper also proposes habit formation as a possible solution to an empirical puzzle identified in the original Glick and Rogoff paper.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

3363. Resolving Conflicts In The Caucasus And Moldova: Perspectives On Next Steps

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: On 6-7 May 2002, the National Intelligence Council and the Department of State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research sponsored a conference that examined the prospects for resolving regional conflicts involving four states of the former Soviet Union: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. The conference brought together outside scholars, regional experts and officials to discuss the conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Transnistria. The purpose was not to arrive at a consensus but to deepen understanding of the complex geopolitical dynamics at work in the region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Moldova, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

3364. Equity Prices, Household Wealth, and Consumption Growth in Foreign Industrial Countries: Wealth Effects in the 1990s

Author:: Carol C. Bertaut
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Although most recent empirical research regarding the size and significance of the impact of changes in wealth on consumption has looked for such effects in the United States, equity prices in the 1990s rose considerably in most other industrial countries as well. This paper investigates the strength of the wealth effect across countries. Using a variety of methods, I find evidence of significant wealth effects in the United Kingdom and Canada of a size comparable to that in the United States, reflecting the importance of equities in aggregate household wealth in these countries. A significant wealth effect is also evident in Japan, but because household wealth has changed little on balance in Japan in recent years, this channel has been less important in explaining Japanese consumption growth in the second half of the 1990s. Despite a rapid appreciation in equity prices and an increase in equity ownership in the major continental European countries since 1995, equities remain a less important form of household wealth in most of these countries, and the consumption response to changes in wealth remains limited. However, in some smaller European countries where equity issuance is more common, the emerging evidence suggests that wealth effects may be more important.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Canada

3365. International Coordination of Macroeconomic Policies: Still Alive in the New Millennium?

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon, Dale W. Henderson, Brian M. Doyle, and Laurence H. Meyer
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: In this paper we provide two building blocks for an analysis of international policy coordination: (1) a survey of models of policy coordination, and (2) an account of experience with policy coordination among the G-7 countries and within Europe since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System. Using these building blocks, we investigate the correspondence between the models and experience and attempt to draw lessons for both the modelers and the practitioners. We find that the correspondence is close enough that the models help in analyzing several instances of actual policy coordination, but that the correspondence could be even closer. As for lessons for modelers, we suggest that they devote more attention to the analysis of information exchange, a key feature of practical policy coordination; to the coordination of different types of policies; to the ramifications of political divisions within countries; and to the implications of market irrationality and speculative bubbles. As for lessons for policy makers, we suggest that they give more consideration to the choice of their ultimate objectives, in particular to whether the current account should always be close to balance; to achieving better internal policies; and to the greater use of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

3366. Financial Centers and the Geography of Capital Flows

Author:: Francis E. Warnock and Chad Cleaver
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: We examine an assumption common in empirical work on bilateral portfolio capital flows that the countries the flows are attributed to are also the countries of the security's issuer, seller, or ultimate buyer. We do this by estimating U.S. investors' holdings of debt and equities in over 40 countries and, for the same countries, foreign investors' holdings of U.S. debt and equities. A comparison of our estimates with data from benchmark surveys provides insight into U.S. data on international debt and equity transactions. We find that, contrary to the common assumption, the data do not track the location of U.S. investment or the location of investors in U.S. assets very well. Because the U.S. portfolio flow data collection system was designed to measure cross-border transactions with foreign counterparties who are often intermediaries, the majority of the flows are attributed to financial centers. By aggregating our country-level estimates, we find that U.S. data accurately portray net inflows into U.S. equities and net outflows into foreign bonds. However, the data substantially overcount net inflows into U.S. bonds and may undercount net outflows into foreign equities. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings for research on capital flows.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

3367. Afghanistan and Regional Geopolitical Dynamics after 11 September

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: In April 2002, the National Intelligence Council sponsored a conference that examined the impact of events in Afghanistan since 11 September on a variety of regional actors, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, India, Europe, Pakistan, and the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The conference brought together government and outside experts and consisted of four workshops with presentations from ten academic and regional experts, followed by lengthy discussion sessions. The purpose of the conference was not to arrive at a consensus but to deepen understanding of the complex geopolitical dynamics at work in the region.
Topic:: International Relations, Regional Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

3368. On the Sequencing of Projects, Reputation Building, and Relationship Finance

Author:: David C. Smith, Steven Ongena, and Dominik Egli
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: We study the decision an entrepreneur faces in financing multiple projects and show that relationship financing will arise endogenously in an environment where strategic defaults are likely, even when firms have access to arm's-length financing. Relationship financing allows an entrepreneur to build a private reputation for repayment that reduces the cost of financing. However, in an environment where the risk of strategic default is low, the benefits from reputation building are outweighed by holdup rents extractable by the incumbent lender. Entrepreneurs then choose to finance projects from single or multiple arm's-length lenders.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

3369. La calidad del ciudadano. Past and Present. The Nature of Citizenship in Mexico and the United States- 1776-1912

Author:: Erika Pani
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: Mexico's transition to democratic rule has triggered much debate about the legacies of the past under which Mexicans must labor. Mexico is seen as emerging from a monolithic, murky and only rarely interrupted authoritarian past, from the Aztec tlatoanis to the PRI. Mexican “political culture” is seen as both the underlying principle and the creature of this historical experience. Some characterize Mexicans as lacking democratic values, with no electoral culture and with their families structured along patriarchic and authoritarian lines. Ironically, this approach, which tries to explain the present by understanding the past, is blatantly unhistorical. It speaks of static, eternal core values, of an unchanging México Profundo that has supposedly lurked inside every Mexican through the ages regardless of class or regional origin. Thus, writes one scholar, “behind an image of modernity and values, lies hidden the arithmetic relationship of dominion and subordination.” The trappings of a modern society barely cover one that is deeply traditional, whose real values and practices are rooted in “the ancient Mesoamerican civilizations.”
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States and Mexico

3370. U.S. Policy Toward the Former Yugoslavia

Author:: Steven E. Meyer
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: As long as the Cold War framed the international arena, relations between the United States and Yugoslavia were—for the most part—fairly clear and predictable. Both sides played their assigned roles well in the larger East-West drama. For the U.S., Yugoslavia—after Tito and Stalin split in 1948—was the useful, even reliable, strategically-placed, communist antagonist to the Soviet Union. Certainly, Washington complained at times about Yugoslavia's preference for nonalignment and lamented the fact that it was not part of the Western alliance. The fact that Yugoslavia was indeed a communist state that Moscow could not control, however, more than compensated for these “short comings.” As a reward, the U.S. courted Tito, provided economic aid, and paid virtually no attention to how he ran the country—even his brutal rise to power after World War II was of little consequence.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Washington, Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia

3371. NATO as a Factor of Security Community Building: Enlargement and Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Corneliu Bjola
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: This analysis is primarily concerned with examining the building blocks and mechanisms through which NATO extends its institutional and normative influence and contributes (or not) to reducing chances for military conflict and political tension in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by integrating the region into the Western security community. In terms of political stakes, the prospects of forming a CEE security community would be seriously undermined if NATO enlargement and partnership programs were perceived as facilitating the evolution of a regional arms race, driven by aggressive foreign policies and sponsored by widespread nationalism and regional mistrust. The formation of the CEE security community would be more likely if the institutional and normative adjustments induced by NATO's cooperative security arrangements were viewed as promoting the democratic development of the political-military structures driven by non-nationalist and region-wide, cooperative attitudes.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, NATO, and Democratization
Political Geography:: Europe

3372. The Politics of European Enlargement: NATO, the EU and the New U.S.-European Relationship

Author:: Howard J. Wiarda
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the end of the Cold War, the main issues in Eastern and Central Europe, and in U.S. and European policy toward the area, have focused on achieving peace and stability, building democracy, accomplishing economic and institutional reform, accelerating growth and modernization, and anchoring and integrating the countries of the area into Europe and its two great “clubs”: the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It could be said that the last three goals listed–democracy, economic and institutional reform, and European integration–were all means to the end of achieving peace and stability in this critical area, not known historically for its stable, peaceful politics, as well as to the end of securing a buffer zone on Europe's eastern frontiers that would also function as a means to hem in and limit any future Russian resurgence. What may have begun in strategic planners' eyes as a means to an end, however, has since then taken on a life of its own.
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, Cold War, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, and North Atlantic

3373. Toward a North American Community? - A Conference Report

Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: The “Toward a North American Community?” conference hosted by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars on June 11, 2002, examined the current relationships between the United States, Mexico, and Canada, and investigated the future of North American integration.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: North America

3374. Dissuasion as a Strategic Concept

Author:: Richard Kugler
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Some analysts want to downplay dissuasion or set it aside entirely because of its ambiguity. But ignoring this emerging idea would be short sighted. Despite its haziness, the term goes to the heart of new-era geopolitics in several key regions, including Asia. If the United States can learn how to dissuade skillfully, its strategic effectiveness in troubled regions will improve significantly. When the idea of deterrence first appeared 50 years ago, it too was ambiguous. During the Cold War, however, it acquired a role of central importance once it was equipped with a full-fledged strategic theory. The same may hold true for dissuasion in the early 21st century—but only if it too is equipped with the full set of analyses and calculations needed to bring it to life.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States and Asia

3375. A War Against the Turks? Erasmus on War and Peace

Author:: Fred Dallmayr
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: These are perilous times. Everywhere peace seems to be in retreat or on the defensive. As if tired of the comforts of peaceful living, humankind appears ready to embark on violent ventures whose outcome cannot be predicted. Ominously, the sound of war drums—akin to African bush drums—reverberates through many parts of the world, from America and the Near East to South Asia and the Far East. Thus, the horrors of the twentieth century—the sequence of world wars, genocide, and ethnic cleansings—seem to clamor for emulation in the new millennium, probably on a still more destructive scale. In such grim surroundings, a troubled person may want to look for saner guideposts: for voices of prudent moderation counteracting millenary zeal. Facing a scarcity of such voices in the present, s/he may turn to past centuries—where the search is more likely to be rewarding. One of the most reliable and inspiring guideposts in the past is the great humanist Erasmus (1469-1536), well known for his reflections on the perennial follies of humanity.
Topic:: International Relations and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: America, South Asia, and Middle East

3376. The Aftershock of 9/11: Implications for Globalization and World Politics

Author:: Richard Bernal
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Globalization is a multi-dimensional process that is transforming national and global activities and interactions at a rapid rate and in a profound way. The changes encompassed by globalization have far-reaching implications for all aspects of life. The pace, extent, and character of globalization differ among economic, political, and social dimensions. While there is no single agreed-upon definition of globalization, it is generally understood to be a process in which barriers to the international flow of goods, services, capital, money, and information are being increasingly eroded or eliminated.
Topic:: International Relations, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance

3377. Free Trade, Smart Borders, and Homeland Security: U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation in a New Era of Vulnerability

Author:: Stephen Flynn and Anthony Bryan
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: In the hours following the collapse of the World Trade Center twin towers on September 11, 2001, the United States applied a tourniquet to the transportation arteries that feed its national economy. The first campaign in the war to protect the U.S. homeland turned out to be an embargo on its own economy. Given the uncertainty surrounding the attacks, freezing its transport networks first and asking questions later was probably appropriate. But then came the hard part—how to resume global trade and travel after U.S. citizens' confidence in the security of their nation had been rocked to core? In the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attacks on the United States, front-line agencies like the U.S. Customs Service, Coast Guard, Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), Department of Agriculture, and Border Patrol were being called upon to open U.S. borders and seaports once again to legitimate trade and travel. At the same time, they were tasked with exercising increased vigilance in detecting and intercepting would-be terrorists or the means of terrorism, including weapons of mass destruction that might be smuggled in a vehicle, train, truck, or maritime container. Just how the United States arrives at the appropriate balance—between openness to facilitate legitimate commerce and exercising sufficient controls to stem transnational threats to public safety and security—is one of the most critical public policy challenges confronting U.S.-Caribbean relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Caribbean

3378. Economic Convergence through Savings, Trade and Technology Flows—Lessons from Recent Research

Author:: Per Botolf Maurseth
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on income disparity between countries and convergence in economic growth. New theoretical models modify and often reverse the prediction of convergence in the traditional neo-classical model of economic growth. A particular feature of the recent literature as compared to traditional studies of economic growth is that it acknowledges interdependence between countries. International capital flows, trade in goods and (maybe most important) international technology flows influence individual countries growth performance. The empirical literature on the dynamics of the international distribution of income per capita reveals massive unconditional divergence in income levels. For sub-samples of countries on the other hand, the data support the conditional convergence hypothesis: when other factors are accounted for, there is a tendency for income per capita to converge. For the OECD countries, as well as for some other countries, knowledge flows, either embodied in traded goods or disembodied seem to be important for whether poorer countries are able to catch up with richer ones.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology

3379. International R Spillovers and the Effect of Absorptive Capacity

Author:: Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: We study the productivity effects of R spillovers through imports, foreign direct investment and domestic intermediates, using a highly disaggregated data set for Norwegian business sectors. As opposed to the large body of similar studies, we explicitly analyse the importance of absorptive capacity effects, claiming that the positive contribution from R spillovers is an increasing function of the R activities of the economic units that receive the spillovers. We find strong support for the existence of R spillovers through imports and domestic intermediates, but no sign of such spillovers through foreign ownership. Surprisingly, we identify absorptive capacity effects relating to spillovers from imports, but no such effects with respect to domestic intermediates. One possible explanation is that the cost of learning from international R sources is larger than from domestic R sources, implying that own R investments can counteract the negative effect of geographical and cultural distance on R spillovers.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Norway

3380. Multinationals Searching for R Spillovers

Author:: Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: This paper surveys the literature on R and technology spillovers as a motive for FDI. During the last years, a growing body of theoretical studies has generated formal arguments supporting the economic rationale for such behaviour. Yet, theoretical contributions are clustered within a few schools and a wider approach is necessary in order to understand the mechanisms that relate R spillovers to FDI. The empirical literature is more numerous, but provides ambiguous conclusions with respect to the strength of this motive. Micro studies provide less supportive results as compared to studies based on more aggregate data. Studies based on patent information are generally supportive to the existence of this motive.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology

3381. International R Spillovers and the Absorptive Capacity of Multinationals

Author:: Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: This paper studies R spillovers as a motive for firms to go multinational. The establishment of a foreign subsidiary may increase a firm's ability to learn from foreign R activity since R spillovers between firms are moderated by geographical distance. As opposed to earlier studies on this subject, we also model the concept of absorptive capacity where spillovers are endogenised as a function of the firms'own R investments. We employ a three-stage Cournot duopoly model to identify under what conditions a firm chooses to service a foreign market through exports or localised production (going multinational). With exogenous R investments, the absorptive capacity effect contributes to increase the gains from going multinational when the firm is a technology leader in terms of R If R investments are endogenous, only medium-sized absorptive capacity effects will result in firms going multinational. Also, higher spillover rates do not necessarily drive down R and profits for the multinational firm. This stands in contrast to models that ignore the aspect of absorptive capacity.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology

3382. From territorial defence to comprehensive security? European integration and the changing Norwegian and Swedish security identities

Author:: Pernille Rieker
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: This paper analyses the relationship between the European integration process and the recent changes in the Norwegian and the Swedish national security identities. The aim of the paper is to compare developments in the Norwegian and the Swedish security identities in the 1990s and to evaluate the extent and scope of Europeanisation in the two cases. The fact that both Norway and Sweden had very traditional security discourses at the beginning of the 1990s and that it is possible to detect shifts away from this traditionalism in parallel with the development towards a European security dimension should prove that a Europeanisation has indeed occurred. While several researchers have studied the influence of the EU on national institutions and policies, less attention has been given to the Europeanisation of national security identities. This paper is therefore an attempt to fill this gap. The fact that Sweden has become a member of the EU while Norway has not also makes these two countries good cases for examining the extent and scope of their respective Europeanisation.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Nationalism
Political Geography:: Europe, Norway, and Sweden

3383. Odious Debt

Author:: Michael Kremer and Seema Jayachandran
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: When the international community wants to put pressure on a government that suppresses democracy and human rights, a common approach is to impose economic sanctions. Traditional sanctions, however, are often criticized as either ineffective or inhumane. The targeted government can find ways to evade them, and the sanctions may hurt rather than help the people in the country. For example, when trade sanctions are deployed, smugglers and even some national governments will likely flout them, enticed by profits boosted by the sanction itself. When trade sanctions are not evaded, the loss of national income can impoverish citizens. This policy brief proposes a new form of sanction that avoids these shortcomings and hence could be a valuable addition to the toolkit of sanctions available to the international community and national governments.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Political Economy

3384. Rebalancing United States-China Relations

Author:: Michael Swaine and Minxin Pei
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: President George W. Bush's visit to China, Japan, and South Korea in February 2002 highlights the vital importance of the Asia-Pacific region to the United States. His stop in China will be especially significant. He will arrive in Beijing on precisely the 30th anniversary of Richard Nixon's historic journey to China, and at a time of notable—if limited—improvement in relations between China and the United States after one of periodic harsh rhetoric and tense confrontation.
Topic:: International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Asia

3385. Shining a Light on Small Arms Exports: The Record of State Transparency

Author:: Maria Haug, Martin Langvandslien, Lora Lumpe, and Nic Marsh
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The proliferation of small arms and light weapons directly enables a horrifying number of deaths and injuries around the world each year, and it poses a grave threat to the stability and development of many countries, as well as to the success of UN-mandated peace operations. One of the most meaningful and straightforward initiatives concerned governments could undertake is to provide full unilateral transparency around the small arms shipments they are authorizing for import or export.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:: United Nations

3386. Making Global Public Policy: The Case of Small Arms and Light Weapons

Author:: Rachel Stohl and Edward Laurence
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: In the Programme of Action, agreed at the July 2001 UN Small Arms Conference, national governments adopted a wide-ranging set of commitments which, if implemented, would aid greatly in preventing and reducing the negative impacts of these weapons. In an extensive review, this paper reveals that states, intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have taken up this challenge in a broad series of meetings, programmes, and policies. Individual states are enacting new laws, building needed capacity, and funding projects in affected states. UN agencies are engaged in various activities in support of the Programme, while the UN Secretariat is carrying out the tasks assigned to it in this document. At the same time, regional IGOs are taking action loosely based on the Programme. And NGOs, both global and local, have embarked on specific programmes and awareness-raising initiatives, empowered by the mandate contained in the Programme.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:: United Nations

3387. "Power" in International Relations: concept formation between conceptual analysis and conceptual history

Author:: Stefano Guzzini
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This paper will try to take the reader on a journey from conceptual analysis, used as a means for variable construction, to concept formation as conceptual history through a series of stops which will add different contextual layers to the analysis. This step by step introduction is meant to show the basic connectedness, and indeed crucial importance, of all this layers for constructivism-inspired scholarship where concept formation is not simply a means but an important end in our knowledge. Throughout the journey, references will be made to the concept of power which, in this indirect way – so I hope – will be shown as variable, as core concept in a social theory, as well as a performative speech act, embedded in a certain historical and cultural context, with the effect of "politicising" issues.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Government

3388. Guiding Principles for U.S. Post-Conflict Policy in Iraq

Author:: Frank G. Wisner and Edward P. Djerejian
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Today's Iraq debate is understandably focused on the run-up to possible military action. However, the question of how the United States and the international community should manage post-conflict Iraq is even more consequential, as it will determine the long-term condition of Iraq and the entire Middle East. If Washington does not clearly define its goals for Iraq and build support for them domestically and with its allies and partners, future difficulties are bound to quickly overshadow any initial military success. Put simply, the United States may lose the peace, even if it wins the war.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Arab Countries

3389. EU Crisis Response Capabilities: An Update

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In June 2001, ICG published a first report on EU crisis response capabilities, which presented a snapshot of the institutions, policies and processes for conflict prevention and crisis management as they stood at mid 2001. It described the respective roles in external relations matters of the three key EU institutions, Council, Commission and Parliament, and the evolving machinery for implementing more coordinated strategies in the formulation of general policy positions, conflict prevention and conflict management.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Europe

3390. Belgrade's Lagging Reform: Cause for International Concern

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: For more than a decade Serbia was the driving force behind much of the instability in the Balkans. Following the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic on 5 October 2000, it was hoped that Serbia would promptly reform the external policies of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) that had caused such disruption. To date, these hopes have been substantially disappointed.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

3391. Staying the Course: Limitations in U.S. -China Relations

Author:: Gen. Jack N. Merritt
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The People's Republic of China (PRC). As of mid-2002, the PRC's policy is to emphasize the positive, stressing its desire for an improved – and hopefully more stable – relationship with the United States. This policy reflects China's recognition of the need for stability at a time of many challenges. In the next few years, the PRC leadership will be seeking to extend economic reform and build prosperity beyond the limited areas in big cities and the eastern provinces that have made great strides in recent years. China will need to adjust the economy to the market-opening demands that World Trade Organization (WTO) membership will bring and it will face the problem of moving successfully over the next decade through a transition in leadership without compromising the continued power of the Party leadership group.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

3392. Ties That Bind? The Parapublic Underpinnings of Franco-German Relations as Construction of International Value

Author:: Ulrich Krotz
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: Beneath the relations among states, and distinct from the exchanges of an autonomous regional or global civil society, there is another set of international practices which is neither public nor private but parapublic. The Franco-German parapublic underpinnings consist of publicly funded youth and educational exchanges, some two thousand city and regional partnerships, a host of institutes and associations concerned with Franco-German matters, and various other parapublic elements. This institutional reality provides resources, socializes the participants of its programs, and generates social meaning. Simultaneously, parapublic activity faces severe limits. In this paper I clarify the concept of “parapublic underpinnings” of international relations and flesh out their characteristics for the relationship between France and Germany. I then evaluate the effects and limits of this type of activity, and relate this paper's findings and arguments to recent research on transnationalism, Europeanization, and denationalization.
Topic:: International Relations, Civil Society, and Education
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

3393. Structure as Process:The Regularized Intergovernmentalism of Franco-German Bilateralism

Author:: Ulrich Krotz
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: This article systematically scrutinizes the intergovernmental and administrative aspects of Franco-German relations with the 1963 Elysée Treaty at their core. This treaty, together with its various additions and extensions, has defined the basic processes of bilateral interaction between the French and German states. Recurrent tension in Franco-German relations notwithstanding, many observers and participants have viewed France and Germany to be connected particularly closely since the 1960s. This article explores key elements of what it is that links France and Germany. Thereby it clarifies the concept of regularized inter governmentalism, suggests viewing this specific set of international practices from a social-structural perspective, and evaluates the effects and limits of such regularized procedures. Its findings suggest that bilateral structures have complemented and undergirded a broadly multilateral post-World War II world and are likely to continue to do so.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

3394. Social Content of the International Sphere: Symbols and Meaning in Franco-German Relations

Author:: Ulrich Krotz
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: “The Franco-German friendship is rich in memories and gestures that are at once important and symbolic, and that characterize the exceptional nature of the relationship between our two countries,” reflects former French economics minister and European Commission President Jacques Delors. Such symbolic acts and joint memories are not primarily about cooperation in specific instances. Rather, more generally, they denote what it means to act together. They lend significance to a relationship; they signify what is “at stake,” or what it is “all about.” They are about a deeper and more general social purpose underlying specific instances of cooperation. They are about the value and intrinsic importance that social relations incorporate. Symbols contribute to the institutionalization of social meaning and social purpose in dealing with one another. In this paper I clarify the concept of “predominantly symbolic acts and practices among states,” systematically explore such acts for the bilateral Franco-German relationship between the late 1950s and the mid-1990s, and scrutinize the specific meaning and effects that these practices have helped to generate and perpetuate.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

3395. National Role Conceptions and Foreign Policies:France and Germany Compared

Author:: Ulrich Krotz
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: In spite of domestic and international political changes, French and German foreign policies have displayed high degrees of continuity between the late 1950s and the mid-1990s. Over the same time period, the directions of the two states' foreign policies have also continued to differ from each other. Why do states similar in many respects often part ways in what they want and do? This article argues that the French and German national role conceptions (NRCs) account for both of these continuities. NRCs are domestically shared understandings regarding the proper role and purpose of one's own state as a social collectivity in the international arena. As internal reference systems, they affect national interests and foreign policies. This article reestablishes the NRC concept, empirically codes it for France and Germany for the time period under consideration, and demonstrates comparatively how different NRCs lead to varying interests and policies across the major policy areas in security, defense, and armament.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, France, and Germany

3396. European Monetary Union: between the stakeholder and the stockholder models of capitalism

Author:: Carlos A. Rozo
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: From the mid-1980s on a new attitude towards self-determination appeared in Western European integration. With the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 and, later, with the Amsterdam Treaty of 1997 the member countries of the European Community manifested their determination to be active players in the new international order. Accepting and instituting the single market and monetary union constituted, however, a challenge of compatibility between the traditional model of welfare European capitalism and the impositions coming from globalization under the neo-liberal model of Anglo-Saxon capitalism. This issue is examined here under two perspectives. The first reviews the implications which globalization has had on the European model of capitalism and the second the complications for monetary management as Europe moves from a nationally regulated to a union regulated financial structure.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe

3397. Globalization and Security: Migration and Evolving Conceptions of Security in Statecraft and Scholarship

Author:: Christopher Rudolph
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: Does globalization shape the way states define their security interests? While few would question the fact that we live in an era of extraordinary change—technological, economic, social, and political—scholars disagree whether globalization is really something new and different, or simply the continuation of an enduring process that has proceeded for centuries (Cf. Chase-Dunn 1994; Rosenau 1997; Sassen 1998; Arrighi 1999; Wallerstein 1999; Castells 2000; Keohane and Nye 2000; Mittelman 2000). However, even skeptics concede that while the capitalist world-system has become increasingly global over the span of centuries, the speed and degree of globalization has increased tremendously in recent decades (Chase-Dunn 1999, 181). Even before George Bush popularized the term “new world order,” there was a growing sense that the changes brought about by processes of globalization were fundamentally changing world order and international politics—but in what sense?
Topic:: International Relations

3398. Security and the Political Economy of International Migration

Author:: Christopher Rudolph
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: Richard Rosecrance (1986) argues that the world has transformed into a system of trading states, where power is increasingly based on Ricardian notions of comparative advantage, factor mobility, and free trade. As gains from trade and interdependence increase, as they have under the past half-century of American hegemony, the use of a military-territorial strategy is a less appealing means of maximizing state power, especially since war has become increasingly costly, complicated, and destructive (Cf. Morgenthau, 1948; Kennedy, 1988; Mueller, 1989; Kupchan, 1994). Proponents of "Washington consensus" neoliberalism argue that liberal trade policies and laissez-faire treatment of international factor flows moves economies toward a Pareto-optimal frontier, one that will create a "rising tide to lift all boats" in both developed and developing nations, though perhaps not evenly (Krugman, 1995; Krugman and Venables, 1995; Krugman and Obstfeld, 1997). Considerable evidence supports the argument that trading state globalization has emerged as a global norm and as a widely accepted basis of state grand strategy since World War II. Since the 1940s, successive rounds of the GATT (now the WTO) have resulted in consistently lower tariff rates that have helped stimulate world trade. From 1980—1998, world trade has grown anywhere from 4.2% to 10.3%, and between 1990—1999 world trade has grown at over three times the rate of global output (World Bank, 1998; WTO, 2000). Moreover, financial transactions, once an adjunct of trade, now tower of trade flows by a ratio of 50:1 (Ruggie, 1995:48; see also Cohen, 1998).
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: America and Washington

3399. Justice and Home Affairs Issues in Turkish-EU Relations

Author:: Kemal Kirisçi
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Turkish-EU relations entered a new era with the decision to declare Turkey a candidate country for membership at the Helsinki summit of December 1999. i Since then the adoption of the Accession Partnership Document (APD) issued by the EU in December 2000ii and the National Programme issued in April 2001iii by the Turkish government have set an agenda of issues to be addressed in preparing Turkey’s accession. In general, considerable public attention has been given to the reform s that Turkey must introduce to meet the Copenhagen criteria and to foreign policy issues such as the question of Cyprus. One aspect of both documents that has received little attention is Justice and Home Affair (JHA) issues. JHA is an area of the European integration process that has not yet become supranational. Instead, member countries have preferred to address issues to do with JHA through intergovernmental cooperation. Nevertheless, an impressive level of EU acquis has been developed and candidate countries are expected to harmonise their legislation and practice to it. Central to JHA issues is asylum, irregular migration and visas. Once the geography of the EU became borderless for the citizens of member countries, the questions of common asylum and immigration policies acquired heightened importance. The need to coordinate policy increased and the EU has gradually edged toward a common asylum and immigration policy. The 1997 Treaty of Amsterdam includes a commitment by member states to develop such a policy within five years. Once this is achieved the development of common immigration and asylum policies will come under the Council of Ministers’ power.
Topic:: International Relations, Immigration, European Union, Justice, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

3400. Enlarging the European Union: Where does Turkey Stand?

Author:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: EU decision-making with regard to Turkey is interesting to examine in terms of European integration and enlargement issues. One basic assumption of the paper is that Turkey’s position in the enlargement process cannot be treated as an independent case on its own, but should be evaluated within the larger framework of enlargement. In other words, the EU’s reservations, the role of the EU public towards the process of enlargement, the bargains that will be conducted between member states during enlargement negotiations for all candidate countries affect Turkey’s position in the enlargement process. This is not to say that the EU does not have specific reservations and issues that relate only to the Turkish case, but that the picture is more complicated than a European Union-Turkish bilateral relationship. The factors that are relevant in this picture are the European Union’s policy making mechanisms, the role of public opinion, the EU’s institutional set-up and of course the EU member states’ preferences. This approach therefore differs from previous work on the subject by placing EU-Turkish relations within a multilateral framework of enlargement in general, rather than a binary relationship. Similarly, I have argued elsewhere in a work co-authored with Lauren McLaren, that Turkey’s relations with the European Union should be evaluated within a perspective of the enlargement preferences of EU members and policy making in the European Union. The assumption in that work was that member states’ preferences determine the outcome of bargains in the European Union’s policy of enlargement.
Topic:: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS