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351. China in Africa: A Macroeconomic Perspective

Author:
Benedicte Vibe Christensen
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In recent years, China has dramatically expanded its financing and foreign direct investment to Africa. This expansion has served the political and economic interests of China while providing Africa with much-needed technology and financial resources. This paper looks at China's role in Africa from the Chinese perspective. The main conclusion is that China, as an emerging global player and one of Africa's largest trading and financial partners, can no longer ignore the macroeconomic impact of its operations on African economies. Indeed, it is in China's interest that its engagement leads to sustainable economic development on the continent. Trade, financing, and technology transfer must continue at a pace that African economies can absorb without running up against institutional constraints, the capacity to service the costs to future budgets, or the balance of payments. A key corollary is that China should show good governance in its own operations in Africa. Finally, macroeconomic analysis needs to be supported by better analytical data and organization of decision making to support China's engagement in Africa.
Topic:
Development and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and China

352. Byways and Highways of Direct Investment: China and the Offshore World

Author:
William Vlcek
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper examines a lacuna in the literature on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to China: the absence of analysis for the prominent location of small Caribbean and Pacific islands as leading sources of FDI. An indeterminate amount of domestic capital is embedded in these FDI flows, which distorts comparative studies on FDI in developing economies between China and other states. Direct investment from China has also increased in recent years and offshore financial centres (OFCs) often serve as the initial destinations. This paper excavates the rationales behind the presence of OFCs and suggests that Chinese actors will emulate the practices of developed state multinational corporations and high-net-worth individuals. The implications of these investment practices are outlined along with possible trajectories for their impact on the process of financial liberalisation in China. Consequently, it encourages increased Chinese participation in the development of global financial governance.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China

353. The pernicious institution of the party-appointed arbitrator

Author:
Hans Smit
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
As arbitration has grown by leaps and bounds, so has the role of the party-appointed arbitrator. Surprisingly, this has not led to increased inquiry into the appropriateness of having arbitrators appointed by the parties in general, or in arbitrations against states in particular. In my judgment, party-appointed arbitrators should be banned unless their role as advocates for the party that appointed them is fully disclosed and accepted. Until this is done, arbitration can never meet its aspiration of providing dispassionate adjudication by those with special skills and experience in a process designed to combine efficiency with expertise.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Law
Political Geography:
Colombia

354. State-controlled entities as claimants in international investment arbitration: an early assessment

Author:
Michael D. Nolan and Frédéric Sourgens
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
State-controlled entities (SCEs) are increasingly important participants in international investment flows and international trade. Cumulative FDI by sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) has reportedly reached US$100 billion. SWFs are significant equity investors in, and provide significant debt financing to, every kind of company, from professional sports franchises to container ports. In addition to the role of these funds, national oil companies are growing in regional and international importance. In many countries, other industries are also increasingly government-owned.
Topic:
Development, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

355. Can the U.S. Remain an Attractive Host for FDI in the Auto Industry? New Labor Policy and Flexible Production

Author:
Terutomo Ozawa
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
President Obama has been supporting a new bill, the Employee Free Choice Act, designed to promote the labor unions' drive for unionization. This bill, if enacted, will surely be a big boon for unions as it helps enlarge their membership, enhance their bargaining power vis-à-vis businesses, and enrich their coffers to wield political clout. An important issue here, however, is how such reinforced unionism contributes to the U.S.'s much needed industrial competitiveness and employment—and, more specifically, how this new policy will affect the U.S. as a host to FDI in the auto industry.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

356. The global economic crisis and FDI flows to emerging markets: for the first time ever, emerging markets are this year set to attract more than half of global FDI flows

Author:
Laza Kekic
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The global economic and financial crisis has had a major impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. After declining in 2008 by 17% to US$1.73trn from US$2.09trn in 2007—the high point of a four- year long boom in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M) and FDI—global FDI inflows are forecast to plunge by 44% to less than US$1trn in 2009. The big drop in 2009 is occurring despite the improvements in the global economy in recent months. A notable feature of trends in 2009 is that, for the first time ever, emerging markets are set to attract more FDI inflows than the developed world.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

357. The growth of Brazil's direct investment abroad and the challenges it faces

Author:
Luís Afonso Lima and Octavio de Barros
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The internationalization of Brazilian companies is a relatively recent phenomenon. From 2000 to 2003, outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) averaged USD 0.7 billion a year. Over the four-year period 2004−2008, this average jumped to nearly USD 14 billion. In 2008, when global FDI inflows were estimated to have fallen by 15%, OFDI from Brazil almost tripled, increasing from just over USD 7 billion in 2007 to nearly USD 21 billion in 2008 (annex figure 1 below). Central Bank data put the current stock of Brazilian OFDI at USD 104 billion, an increase of 89% over 2003. Caution is in order about these figures, however, as in Brazilian outflows it is difficult to separate authentic FDI from purely financial investment under the guise of FDI. According to the most recent data, 887 Brazilian companies have invested abroad.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

358. Outward investment by Trans-Latin enterprises: reasons for optimism

Author:
Michael Mortimore and Carlos Razo
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Despite the global crisis, outward FDI by Latin American firms grew by more than 40% in 2008. The picture for 2009 is less clear, due to the expected regional GDP contraction, falling commodity prices, and tightening credit markets. Nonetheless, the authors argue that many countervailing factors make Latin American investment more resilient in the crisis than other regions may be.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Latin America

359. Indian FDI falls in global economic crisis: Indian multinationals tread cautiously

Author:
Jaya Prakash Pradhan
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Just over a year ago, outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from India seemed to be on a path of rapid and sustained growth. Its annual average growth of 98% during 2004–07 had been unprecedented , much ahead of OFDI growth from other emerging markets like China (74%), Malaysia (70%), Russia (53%), and the Republic of Korea (51%), although from a much lower base. Much of this recent growth had been fuelled by large-scale overseas acquisitions, however, and it faltered when the global financial crisis that started in late 2007 made financing acquisitions harder.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Malaysia, India, and Korea

360. National Security with a Canadian Twist: The Investment Canada Act and the New National Security Review Test

Author:
Subrata Bhattacharjee
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
On March 12, 2009, the Canadian federal government passed significant amendments to the Investment Canada Act (ICA), Canada's foreign investment law of general application. Though the amendments generally liberalize important aspects of the Canadian foreign investment review regime, they also include a broadly worded national security test that now allows the responsible Minister to review proposed investments in Canada on national security grounds. On July 11, 2009, the government published draft regulations that provide the details of the new national security review process. A detailed summary of the amendments and regulations is included in an extended note available at www.vcc.columbia.edu.
Topic:
Economics and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Canada

361. Are SWFs Welcome Now?

Author:
Veljko Fotak and William Megginson
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Until the end of 2007, western media, governments and regulators often seemed more concerned about protecting domestic firms from investments by sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) than about attracting capital inflows. Politicians in many countries called for the regulation of sovereign foreign investments at that time, when SWF investments were growing rapidly. In fact, during 2006 and 2007, countries that introduced at least one regulatory change (many of them related to such investments) making the investment climate less welcoming for multinational enterprises accounted for 40% of all FDI inflows.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Sovereign Wealth Funds

362. Land grab or development opportunity? International farmland deals in Africa

Author:
Lorenzo Cotula
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Over the past 12 months, large-scale acquisitions of farmland in Africa, Latin America, Central Asia and Southeast Asia have made headlines in a flurry of media reports across the world. Lands that only a short time ago seemed of little outside interest are now being sought by international investors to the tune of hundreds of thousands of hectares.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and Latin America

363. International Investment Arbitration: Winning, Losing and Why

Author:
Susan D. Franck
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
We know several things about foreign investment. First, foreign investment matters, reaching US$1.7 trillion in 2008. Second, we know that foreign investors have new international law rights to protect their economic interests. Third, we know that those rights are now being used.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

364. Improving infrastructure or lowering taxes to attract foreign direct investment?

Author:
Christian Bellak and Markus Leibrecht
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
A crucial challenge to all countries in the current economic crisis is to stimulate investment, including foreign direct investment (FDI). Countries striving to attract FDI often resort to two types of policies: improving infrastructure or lowering taxes, as a means of attracting new FDI, or keeping existing FDI. Indeed, recent empirical studies (e.g. Bénassy-Quéré et al. 2007; Bellak et al. 2009) confirmed that both lower taxes and improved infrastructure exert a considerable influence upon multinational enterprises' decision to invest in a particular country, when controlling for other important location factors (like market size, labor costs etc.).
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, and Foreign Direct Investment

365. While global FDI falls, China's outward FDI doubles

Author:
Ken Davies
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In 2008 global FDI fell by around 20%, while outward FDI from China nearly doubled. This disparity is likely to continue in 2009 and 2010 as China invests even more overseas. What is driving this continuing surge in China's outward FDI?
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China and Asia

366. A new geography of innovation – China and India rising

Author:
Gert Bruche
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
With some delay, the internationalization of business R is following the globalization of production. Starting on a small scale during the 1970s and 1980s, the emergence of globally distributed R networks of multinational enterprises (MNEs) accelerated rapidly in the 1990s. The “globalization of innovation” was facilitated and driven by a complex set of factors, including changes in trade and investment governance, improved intellectual property rights through TRIPS, the growing ease and falling cost of communicating and traveling around the globe, and the concomitant vertical industry specialization and unbundling of value chains. The growing and sustained level of cross-border M was one major direct driver, often having the effect that merged firms inherited multiple R sites in a number of countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

367. The global financial crisis: will state emergency measures trigger international investment disputes?

Author:
Anne Van Aaken and Jürgen Kurtz
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Several developed countries have introduced emergency measures to mitigate the effects of the Global Financial Crisis, including Australia, Germany, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Although the measures taken are still undergoing changes by the executive branch and are thus a “moving target”, our survey reveals early evidence of differentiation between foreign and domestic actors in the emergency plans adopted by this sample grouping. It is this differentiation that may give rise to liability as breaching guarantees against discrimination of foreign investors under international investment law.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, International Affairs, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and Ireland

368. The revised national security review process for FDI in the US

Author:
Mark E. Plotkin and David N. Fagan
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
On December 22, 2008, new regulations setting forth the U.S. government's national security review process for foreign mergers and acquisitions of U.S. businesses became effective. They are the ultimate step in a lengthy effort to revise and strengthen the reviews undertaken by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (“CFIUS”).
Topic:
Economics, National Security, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

369. Investment from the GCC and Development in the Mediterranean. The Outlook for EU-GCC Financial and Economic Cooperation in the Mediterranean

Author:
Bénédict de Saint-Laurent
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Basic questions posed in this study were whether the trend of Gulf involvement in the Mediterranean economies was sustainable, what the specifics of those investments are, and could a triangular cooperation be envisaged? What is clear is that Gulf investors have become major players in the Mediterranean with an investment volume of more than 70 billion Euro in nearly 700 projects since January 2003. The Gulf now seems to have joined Europe as a sustainable second investment pillar. The complementarities between needs and resources of Europe, GCC and Med countries call for the implementation of an integrated co-operation model, similar to the Japan-China-ASEAN triangle.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Middle East, and Arabia

370. Indian FDI falls in global economic crisis: Indian multinationals tread cautiously

Author:
Jaya Prakash Pradhan
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Just over a year ago, outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from India seemed to be on a path of rapid and sustained growth. Its annual average growth of 98% during 2004–07 had been unprecedented , much ahead of OFDI growth from other emerging markets like China (74%), Malaysia (70%), Russia (53%), and the Republic of Korea (51%), although from a much lower base. Much of this recent growth had been fuelled by large-scale overseas acquisitions, however, and it faltered when the global financial crisis that started in late 2007 made financing acquisitions harder.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, China, South Asia, Malaysia, and Korea

371. Outward investment by Trans-Latin enterprises: reasons for optimism

Author:
Michael Mortimore and Carlos Razo
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Despite the current economic crisis, outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) by Latin American and Caribbean enterprises continued its upward trend in 2008 (annex figure 1). OFDI by firms in the region reached nearly USD 35 billion in 2008, an increase of 42% with respect to 2007 (ECLAC, 2009a). However, several of the factors that fostered such growth have recently changed, possibly affecting OF DI prospects for 2009. This Perspective briefly explores these changes and their potential effects on firms' investing behavior, as well as some important countervailing factors that may cushion the effects of the economic crisis on Latin American firms' investment plan.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

372. The growth of Brazil's direct investment abroad and the challenges it faces

Author:
Luís Afonso Lima and Octavio de Barros
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The internationalization of Brazilian companies is a relatively recent phenomenon. From 2000 to 2003, outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) averaged USD 0.7 billion a year. Over the four-year period 2004−2008, this average jumped to nearly USD 14 billion. In 2008, when global FDI inflows were estimated to have fallen by 15%, OFDI from Brazil almost tripled, increasing from just over USD 7 billion in 2007 to nearly USD 21 billion in 2008 (annex figure 1 below). Central Bank data put the current stock of Brazilian OFDI at USD 104 billion, an increase of 89% over 2003. Caution is in order about these figures, however, as in Brazilian outflows it is difficult to separate authentic FDI from purely financial investment under the guise of FDI. According to the most recent data, 887 Brazilian companies have invested abroad
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

373. China's Changing Outbound Foreign Direct Investment Profile: Drivers and Policy Implications

Author:
Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In 1967 Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber published Le defi americain, a call to beware of American multinationals buying up the world. In the 1980s and 1990s it was Japan's turn, spawning books like Clyde Prestowitz's 1993 Trading Places: How We Are Giving Our Future to Japan. Today it is China's outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) that elicits the most anxiety China's OFDI has reached commercially and geoeconomically significant levels and begun to challenge international investment norms and affect international relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, America, and Asia

374. Criss-Crossing Globalization: Uphill Flows of Skill-Intensive Goods and Foreign Direct Investment

Author:
Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper documents an unusual and possibly significant phenomenon: the export of skills, embodied in goods, services or capital from poorer to richer countries. We first present a set of stylized facts. Using a measure which combines the sophistication of a country's exports with the average income level of destination countries, we show that the performance of a number of developing countries, notably China, Mexico and South Africa, matches that of much more advanced countries, such as Japan, Spain and USA. Creating a new combined dataset on FDI (covering greenfield investment as well as mergers and acquisitions) we show that flows of FDI to OECD countries from developing countries like Brazil, India, Malaysia and South Africa as a share of their GDP, are as large as flows from countries like Japan, Korea and the US. Then, taking the work of Hausmann et al (2007) as a point of departure, we suggest that it is not just the composition of exports but their destination that matters. In both cross-sectional and panel regressions, with a range of controls, we find that a measure of uphill flows of sophisticated goods is significantly associated with better growth performance. These results suggest the need for a deeper analysis of whether development benefits might derive not from deifying comparative advantage but from defying it.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Malaysia, India, South Africa, Brazil, Spain, and Korea

375. FDI Protectionism Is on the Rise

Author:
Karl P. Sauvant
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Over the past two decades or so, countries have liberalized their FDI regulatory frameworks and have put in place an international investment law regime that provides various protections for international investors. In the past few years, however, there are signs that countries are reevaluating their approach toward such investment. As a result, FDI protectionism is on the rise, with screening of inward M becoming more frequent. Typically, this is being done under the guise of "national interest" or similar concepts, often linked to strategic sectors and national champions. While the international investment law regime faces a challenge to find the right balance between the rights and responsibilities of governments and investors, care needs to be taken that the rise of FDI protectionism does not endanger a rules-based approach to FDI. An independent FDI Protectionism Observatory to monitor new protectionist measures and name and shame countries that take them is therefore needed.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment

376. Global Value Chains, Technology Transfer and Local Firm Upgrading in Non-OECD Countries

Author:
Robert Kappel and Juliane Brach
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The productivity and competitiveness of local firms in non-OECD countries depends as much on technological capacities and successful upgrading as in industrialized countries. However, developing countries undertake very little to no original R and primarily depend on foreign technology. Long-term contracts and subcontracting arrangements within global value chains are here very important forms of transnational cooperation and therefore also important channels for technology transfer, especially as the majority of these countries attract only limited foreign direct investment. Drawing on innovation and growth models as much as on value-chain literature, we outline an analytical model for empirical research on local firm upgrading in non-OECD countries and technology transfer within global value chains.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Science and Technology, and Foreign Direct Investment

377. Russian outward FDI and its policy context

Author:
Andrei Panibratov and Kalman Kalotay
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from Russia often surprises outside observers by its landmark deals. One of them was the purchase in September 2009 of a 55% stake in General Motors' German affiliate Opel by a consortium of the Canadian car maker Magna and the Russian state-owned bank Sberbank. The latter is the largest creditor of the Russian car maker GAZ, and may represent its commercial interests in the contract. With this deal, Russia has bought into the industrial heartland of the world economy and could potentially access more advanced technology. This acquisition hints at the growth of Russian OFDI in general, which has prospered despite fears in many host countries that the investors are subject to Russian political interference, a fear that recently announced Russian policy intentions may allay.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

378. Can India catch up with China?

Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Although it is only since 2000 that the growing economic power of the Chinese 'dragon' has emerged fully into the media spotlight, its GDP has in fact been growing at an average rate of close to 10% pa for the last 30 years. On a PPP basis, China is already the second largest economy in the world. The Indian 'elephant', on the other hand, has grown at a more sedate pace, but following a burst in the 2000s it now has the fourth largest GDP in the world on a PPP basis and has been close to emulating Chinese growth rates. With the global economy perhaps now starting to recover slowly from the deep recession, it is possible that India is better placed than China to benefit from what may prove to be a fairly slow period of growth in the developed economies in the years ahead, with the latter's huge exports of manufactured goods struggling to recapture the momentum of the last ten years. For China, net trade will probably be a significant drag on growth in the year ahead, while the stimulus from state-led investment may begin to peter out. In order to maintain earlier rapid growth, the Chinese economy will need to rely much more heavily on domestic demand than before, especially if global over-capacity appears in certain key industries. Despite the apparent resilience of the economy to the global recession, there are a number of question marks over whether this shift can be made quickly. India's fundamentals have become more favourable given the rise in its service sector and climbing FDI inflows (albeit both of these remain well below Chinese levels), and its lower reliance on trade will also mean that it is less exposed to what may be a lengthy period of sluggish world demand. But it also faces problems, including an inefficient agricultural sector, a still-burdensome bureaucracy and a cautious stance towards privatisation. Its fiscal position is also much weaker than China, which may be a long-term threat to greater foreign investment. India also has the benefit of being a democracy – although to date this has probably hampered rather than helped growth performance, it should facilitate faster growth in the longer term. China's authoritarian regime has enabled policies to be implemented more quickly and with little regard to public popularity, but this may be storing up socio-political problems for the longer term, especially if growth were to slow sharply. Demographic factors should also favour India, but again over the long term rather than the next decade. China's decision to start to reverse its one-child policy indicates mounting concern about its ageing population and labour shortages in the future. India on the other hand may be able to turn population growth trends to its advantage, as long as it can improve the skills base. In conclusion, although India's growth trend is forecast to pick-up to 7-8% over the next decade, this is not likely to be enough to overtake China's pace of expansion. But India's recent surge in growth was achieved with few reforms – if it can manage to implement further liberalisation measures, attract increasing FDI inflows and turn its more favourable demographics to its advantage, then the 'elephant' may begin to catch up with the 'dragon' after 2020, although by that time the gap will be even wider than it is now.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, and India

379. How far away is a global recovery?

Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Steep drops in output have been recorded across the industrialised world and much of the emerging market world in recent months. Such has been the scale of these declines that there is now little doubt that the global economy is set for its worst year since the end of WWII, with world GDP forecast to fall almost 1½% (and more than 2% at 2000US$). Significant uncertainties nevertheless remain about the economic outlook, in particular about how deep and protracted the recession will prove to be and how rapid an eventual recovery can be expected. A key factor generating uncertainty is that the current recession has been sparked by and accompanied by a major financial crisis. Recessions of this sort are often more severe than 'standard' recessions, featuring deeper and more sustained drops in asset prices, and a weaker impact from policy interventions due to malfunctioning banking systems. Equity and house prices have continued to drop in the early part of 2009, and there looks to be a significant risk that this weakness will drag on for some time – the average duration of stock price declines in previous financial crises is more than three years and for house prices around six years. The financial sector also remains in a highly dysfunctional state. Although the credit tightening process is showing some signs of coming to an end, stress levels remain extremely elevated and risk appetite is low with banks stuck in 'balance sheet repair mode'. This process is unlikely to be complete for some time. Retrenchment has also become a priority for the corporate and household sectors. In the face of a plunge in final demand, firms have slashed investment and begun destocking. Worryingly, the destocking process could continue f or several quarters as the ratio of inventory to sales remains high. US households were net re payers of debt in the final quarter of 2008, and it seems unlikely that the appetite to take on more debt will recover quickly there or elsewhere in the face of steep increases in unemployment and large falls in household wealth. Taylor rule analysis suggests that the 'appropriate' short-term interest rate for the major economies has now turned negative, supporting the big shift to quantitative easing now under way. Eventually, this and other stimuli in the pipeline should produce a strong recovery. But the outlook for 2010 has weakened significantly in recent weeks and the risks remain skewed toward a more deflationary outcome than that envisaged by our baseline forecast.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

380. Ownership and the Donor-Recipient Relationship

Author:
Lindsay Whitfield
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
At the centre of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness is the idea of country ownership. It is meant to change the situation in many aid dependent African countries where donors dominate decision-making over which policies are adopted, how aid is spent, and what conditions are attached to its release. This article assesses the impact of recent aid reforms to put ownership into practice.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, Poverty, Third World, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa

381. Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle

Author:
Olivier Jeanne and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The textbook neoclassical growth model predicts that countries with faster productivity growth should invest more and attract more foreign capital. We show that the allocation of capital flows across developing countries is the opposite of this prediction: capital seems to flow more to countries that invest and grow less. We then introduce wedges into the neoclassical growth model and find that one needs a saving wedge in order to explain the correlation between growth and capital flows observed in the data. We conclude with a discussion of some possible avenues for research to resolve the contradiction between the model predictions and the data.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment

382. Criss-Crossing Globalization: Uphill Flows of Skill-Intensive Goods and Foreign Direct Investment

Author:
Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Th is paper documents an unusual and possibly significant phenomenon: the export of skills embodied in goods, services, or capital from poorer to richer countries. We fi rst present a set of stylized facts. Using a measure that combines the sophistication of a country's exports with the average income level of destination countries, we show that the performance of a number of developing countries, notably China, Mexico, and South Africa, matches that of much more advanced countries, such as Japan, Spain, and the United States. Creating a new combined dataset on foreign direct investment (FDI) (covering greenfi eld investments as well as mergers and acquisitions) we show that fl ows of FDI to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries from developing countries like Brazil, India, Malaysia, and South Africa as a share of their GDP are as large as fl ows from countries like Japan, Korea, and the United States. Th en, taking the work of Hausmann et al. (2007) as a point of departure, we suggest that it is not just the composition of exports but their destination that matters. In both cross-sectional and panel regressions, with a range of controls, we fi nd that a measure of uphill fl ows of sophisticated goods is signifi cantly associated with better growth performance. Th ese results suggest the need for a deeper analysis of whether development benefi ts might derive not from deifying comparative advantage but from defying it.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, South Africa, and Mexico

383. Improving the International Investment Regime: priorities for the new U.S. Administration

Author:
Pablo M. Pinto, Karl P. Sauvant, Petros C. Mavroidis, Curtis J. Milhaupt, Peter Rosenblum, and Hans Smit
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The international investment regime has grown rapidly over the past two decades, along with foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, which reached $1.8 trillion in 2007. Even in the absence of a single comprehensive multilateral investment treaty or institution, that regime is governed by principles and rules enshrined in some 2,600 bilateral investment treaties and another 250 free trade agreements that contain substantial investment provisions. These treaties are supplemented by a number of other relevant multilateral agreements and customary international law, along with complementary principles applied by international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, that cover aspects of the activities of multinational enterprises as well as how states regulate them.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

384. Sharing the Pain: The Global Struggle Over Savings

Author:
Michael Pettis
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In September, the Obama administration imposed tariffs on Chinese tires. In October, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced it would launch an investigation into imports of seamless steel pipes from China. That same month, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the U.S.–China Business Council, two groups that in the past have defended Chinese policies, testified to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative that Chinese contracting rules, technical standards, and licensing requirements were protectionist.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, and Asia

385. Investment Opportuntities in Mekelle, Tigray State, Ethiopia

Author:
Bryant Cannon
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Mekelle, a rapidly developing city in northern Ethiopia, is located about 780 km from the capital, Addis Ababa. Established nearly 150 years ago by Emperor Yohannes, the city is nestled in Ethiopia's temperate highlands, in the heart of a region that traces its origins back to the ancient Axum Empire that once controlled Red Sea trade (4th century BC – 10th century AD). The city maintains aproud history of many religions, particularly Orthodox Christianity, dating back to the 4th century AD. Mekelle was largely ignored in the latter half of the 20th century by Ethiopia's ruling feudal and socialist governments, but began to experience an economic and cultural rejuvenation with the election of a democratic government in Ethiopia in the early 1990s.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

386. It Should Be a Breeze: Harnessing the Potential of Open Trade and Investment Flows in the Wind Energy Industry

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Thilo Hanemann, and Lutz Weischer
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This working paper maps out the structure and value chains of the wind industry, analyzes the wind industry's increasing global integration via cross-border trade and investment flows, and offers recommendations to policymakers for the design of investment and trade policies to help realize wind energy's potential. We find that demand for wind energy through long-term government support policies creates the basis for local supply of wind capital equipment and services and associated local job creation; policies that put a price on carbon will further help to make wind energy more competitive and increase the overall demand for turbines and equipment. Cross-border investment rather than trade is the dominant mode of the wind industry's global integration. Principal barriers to global integration are nontariff trade barriers and formal and informal barriers that distort firms' investment decisions. These include local content requirements, divergent national industrial standards and licensing demands, and in particular political expectations. Intellectual property accounts for only a very small part of cost in the wind industry, and wind technology is widely available for licensing. Intellectual property rights are correspondingly not a major impediment for market participation. Credible long-term commitments coupled with a reduction or elimination of existing barriers to cross-border trade and investment are necessary to harness the full potential of global integration in reducing wind industry prices and increase worldwide deployment of wind energy.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Foreign Direct Investment

387. Does Openness To International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?

Author:
Marco E. Terrones, Eswar Prasad, and Ayhan Kose
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Economic theory has identified a number of channels through which openness to international financial flows could raise productivity growth. However, while there is a vast empirical literature analyzing the impact of financial openness on output growth, far less attention has been paid to its effects on productivity growth. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between financial openness and total factor productivity (TFP) growth using an extensive dataset that includes various measures of productivity and financial openness for a large sample of countries. We find that de jure capital account openness has a robust positive effect on TFP growth. The effect of de facto financial integration on TFP growth is less clear, but this masks an important and novel result. We find strong evidence that FDI and portfolio equity liabilities boost TFP growth while external debt is actually negatively correlated with TFP growth. The negative relationship between external debt liabilities and TFP growth is attenuated in economies with higher levels of financial development and better institutions.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment

388. On the Current Links Capital Markets and Investment in MENA Countries

Author:
Randa Alami
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper considers the current status of some Middle Eastern markets (Arab countries excluding the Gulf countries). These markets have matured significantly over the last six years, and this helped the concurrent strong economic and investment growth. Evidence gathered here indicates the markets have become a minor source of corporate investment, mobilising both domestic and foreign investors. It allowed them to capture both part of the surge in intra-regional capital flows, and part of rising Foreign Direct Investment. A more enhanced economic impact is constrained by their nascent nature, their volatility and illiquidity, and by what remain poor governance structures. Moreover, these Arab stock markets are still the realm of very large corporations: they have only began to address the needs of smaller entreprises, with venture capital and private equity funds at an embryonic stage. They also support a limited number of economic sectors, while governments and top income elites continue to dominate shareholding. They cannot and should not be relied upon to fulfil all the financing needs of the private sector. This message has been reinforced by the current world crisis, which ended the euphoric but unrealistic expectations that regional capital markets will continue to expand as rapidly as they did between 2002 and 2008.
Topic:
Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, Capitalism, Economic Growth, Investment, and Corporations
Political Geography:
Middle East

389. Is Promoting Foreign Direct Investment Worthwhile? Learning from the East Asian Experience

Author:
Dionisius Narjoko
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
East Asia presents a new model of industrialization that aggressively utilizes the dynamics of multinational corporations (MNCs). The model puts networks of production into practice, and such networks improve domestic capability and contribution to national output. Promoting foreign direct investment (FDI) is therefore warranted to ensure the sustainability of the production-network model. For this reason, FDI should always be promoted even when demand is less supportive, such as at this moment during the current global economic crisis.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Manufacturing, Industrialization, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

390. Managing Arab Sovereign Wealth in Turbulent Times—and Beyond

Author:
Sven Behrendt and Bassma Kodmani
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The debate about the role that sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) from Arab and other emerging economies play in international financial markets has been a highly cyclical one. Only twelve months ago, the Western public questioned the deeper rationales for sovereign investments in what were perceived to be strategic assets of Western economies. Commentators argued that these investments could harm the long-term competitiveness and national security of Western economies.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Arabia

391. Foreign Direct Investment in Blantyre, Malawi: Opportunities and Challenges

Author:
Sawa Nakagawa, Abhinav Bahl, Meron Demisse, Megumi Ishizuka, Francisco Miranda, and Kwi Young Sung
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The Earth Institute at Columbia University launched the Millennium Cities Initiative (MCI), an urban counterpart to the Millennium Villages Project (MVP), to assist nine mid-sized cities across sub-Saharan Africa in achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MCI provides research and policy analysis to the cities in order to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). Increased FDI flows create employment opportunities by fostering local enterprise development and sustainable economic growth. In addition, MCI is helping the Millennium Cities to carry out needs assessments in a number of social sectors. The data from these assessments will enable MCI to generate integrated City Development Strategies to help each city meet the MDGs.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and United Kingdom

392. Assessing Infrastructure Constraints on Business Activity in Blantyre, Malawi

Author:
Zaki Raheem
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In Blantyre, Malawi , population and economic growth are placing great stress on the city's infrastructure systems. As Malawi's industrial capital, long-term improvements to Blantyre's infrastructure are necessary to generate employment, strengthen rural-urban market linkage s, and improve the regional and global competitiveness of the city's industries.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa

393. The Internationalization of Chinese and Indian Firms: Trends, Motivations and Policy Implications

Author:
Sandeep Kapur and Suma Athreye
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The last two decades have seen a significant rise in the internationalization of firms from developing economies. In addition to their growing participation in international trade, a number of leading emerging economies are contributing to growing outflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and cross-border mergers and acquisitions. According to the 2008 World Investment Report, outward flows of FDI from developing countries rose from about US$6 billion between 1989 and 1991 to US$225 billion in 2007. As a percentage of total global outflows, the share of developing countries grew from 2.7% to nearly 13.0% during this period.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, and India

394. The Impact of Microcredit on the Poor in Bangladesh: Revisiting the Evidence

Author:
David Roodman and Jonathan Morduch
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The most-noted studies on the impact of microcredit on households are based on a survey fielded in Bangladesh in the 1990s. Contradictions among them have produced lasting controversy and confusion. Pitt and Khandker (PK, 1998) apply a quasi-experimental design to 1991–92 data; they conclude that microcredit raises household consumption, especially when lent to women. Khandker (2005) applies panel methods using a 1999 resurvey; he concurs and extrapolates to conclude that microcredit helps the extremely poor even more than the moderately poor. But using simpler estimators than PK, Morduch (1999) finds no impact on the level of consumption in the 1991–92 data, even as he questions PK's identifying assumptions. He does find evidence that microcredit reduces consumption volatility. Partly because of the sophistication of PK's Maximum Likelihood estimator, the conflicting results were never directly confronted and reconciled. We end the impasse. A replication exercise shows that all these studies' evidence for impact is weak. As for PK's headline results, we obtain opposite signs. But we do not conclude that lending to women does harm. Rather, all three studies appear to fail in expunging endogeneity. We conclude that for non-experimental methods to retain a place in the program evaluator's portfolio, the quality of the claimed natural experiments must be high and demonstrated.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, South Asia, and Asia

395. Investing in Poor Farmers Pays: Rethinking how to invest in agriculture

Author:
Emily Alpert and Melinda Smale
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In July 2008, world food prices reached their highest peak since the early 1970s. Food stocked on grocery store shelves was out of reach. Riots ensued. Millions were afflicted. Another 100 million people were pushed into the ranks of the hungry, raising the total to nearly one billion worldwide. And these numbers could climb again as food prices remain high, and continue to rise in many local markets.
Topic:
Agriculture, Poverty, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

396. The FDI recession has begun

Author:
Karl P. Sauvant
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
With $1.8 trillion (according to UNCTAD), world foreign direct investment (FDI) flows reached an all-time high last year. All major regions benefitted from increased flows. But that was then. What is, and will be, the impact of the financial crisis and the recession on FDI flows this year and next?
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis

397. Uncovering Dynamics in the Accumulation of Technological Capabilities and Skills in the Mozambican Manufacturing Sector

Author:
Alex Warren-Rodriguez
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper examines the formation and accumulation of skills and technological capabilities in the Mozambican manufacturing sector. To this effect, it deploys Sanjaya Lall’s technology capabilities conceptual and methodological framework to examine these issues for the Mozambican metalworking and light chemical sectors in the context of historical dynamics taking place in Mozambique in the economic and industrial policy spheres. This analysis shows that these two industries are experiencing a process of gradual technological obsolescence, combined with a progressive simplification of production processes that is leading to a weakening of their technology capability and skill base. In this context, neither foreign direct investment, nor other mechanisms of technology transfer identified in the literature as contributing to the process of technological and skills accumulation, appear to have been able to reverse these trends. In light of available evidence on recent industrial (policy) developments, this paper argues that this process can be seen as a response to a deteriorating policy and economic environment that in the past two decades has undermined investments in industrial technological development in Mozambique.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Manufacturing, and Industrialization
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, and Sub-Saharan Africa

398. Assessing Infrastructure Constraints on Business Activity in Kisumu, Kenya

Author:
Jacob Winiecki
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The success of commercial activities in any city depends in great part upon the quality of infrastructure services available to businesses including (but not limited to) reliable electricity and liquid fuel supplies to power engines, sufficient supplies of clean water for irrigation and industrial processes, and reliable roads for obtaining raw materials and transporting finished goods in a timely and cost efficient manner. Poor quality infrastructure can drive up the cost of doing business and constrain economic growth in any city.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

399. Sugar in Kisumu,kenya

Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
An investor, seeking to financially benefit from producing sugar as a commodity in Kisumu, Kenya, needs to consider the entire investment environment before making a decision. Since Kenya is a net importer of sugar, domestic demand cannot be satisfied by domestic production, which creates a potential opportunity for an investor looking to bridge the gap. As a result, an opportunity may exist for an investor who wants to play a significant role in the future of the industry. Sugar, produced as a commodity within Kisumu, may have the ability to compete on a global scale if time, investment, and governmental support align.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Globalization, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

400. Post-Conflict Countries and Foreign Investment

Author:
Vesselin Popovski, Nicholas Turner, and Obijiofor Aginam
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
It has become increasingly clear that economic development and poverty reduction can significantly reduce the incidence of conflict. This is of particular importance for countries recovering from violent conflicts, considering they are often among the poorest even compared with other developing countries, and are extremely vulnerable to slipping back into violence.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, Third World, Foreign Aid, Infrastructure, and Foreign Direct Investment