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382. Are SWFs Welcome Now?
- Author:
- Veljko Fotak and William Megginson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Until the end of 2007, western media, governments and regulators often seemed more concerned about protecting domestic firms from investments by sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) than about attracting capital inflows. Politicians in many countries called for the regulation of sovereign foreign investments at that time, when SWF investments were growing rapidly. In fact, during 2006 and 2007, countries that introduced at least one regulatory change (many of them related to such investments) making the investment climate less welcoming for multinational enterprises accounted for 40% of all FDI inflows.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
383. Land grab or development opportunity? International farmland deals in Africa
- Author:
- Lorenzo Cotula
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Over the past 12 months, large-scale acquisitions of farmland in Africa, Latin America, Central Asia and Southeast Asia have made headlines in a flurry of media reports across the world. Lands that only a short time ago seemed of little outside interest are now being sought by international investors to the tune of hundreds of thousands of hectares.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Latin America
384. International Investment Arbitration: Winning, Losing and Why
- Author:
- Susan D. Franck
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- We know several things about foreign investment. First, foreign investment matters, reaching US$1.7 trillion in 2008. Second, we know that foreign investors have new international law rights to protect their economic interests. Third, we know that those rights are now being used.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States
385. Improving infrastructure or lowering taxes to attract foreign direct investment?
- Author:
- Christian Bellak and Markus Leibrecht
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- A crucial challenge to all countries in the current economic crisis is to stimulate investment, including foreign direct investment (FDI). Countries striving to attract FDI often resort to two types of policies: improving infrastructure or lowering taxes, as a means of attracting new FDI, or keeping existing FDI. Indeed, recent empirical studies (e.g. Bénassy-Quéré et al. 2007; Bellak et al. 2009) confirmed that both lower taxes and improved infrastructure exert a considerable influence upon multinational enterprises' decision to invest in a particular country, when controlling for other important location factors (like market size, labor costs etc.).
- Topic:
- Economics, Infrastructure, and Foreign Direct Investment
386. While global FDI falls, China's outward FDI doubles
- Author:
- Ken Davies
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- In 2008 global FDI fell by around 20%, while outward FDI from China nearly doubled. This disparity is likely to continue in 2009 and 2010 as China invests even more overseas. What is driving this continuing surge in China's outward FDI?
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
387. A new geography of innovation – China and India rising
- Author:
- Gert Bruche
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- With some delay, the internationalization of business R is following the globalization of production. Starting on a small scale during the 1970s and 1980s, the emergence of globally distributed R networks of multinational enterprises (MNEs) accelerated rapidly in the 1990s. The “globalization of innovation” was facilitated and driven by a complex set of factors, including changes in trade and investment governance, improved intellectual property rights through TRIPS, the growing ease and falling cost of communicating and traveling around the globe, and the concomitant vertical industry specialization and unbundling of value chains. The growing and sustained level of cross-border M was one major direct driver, often having the effect that merged firms inherited multiple R sites in a number of countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, India, and Asia
388. The global financial crisis: will state emergency measures trigger international investment disputes?
- Author:
- Anne Van Aaken and Jürgen Kurtz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Several developed countries have introduced emergency measures to mitigate the effects of the Global Financial Crisis, including Australia, Germany, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Although the measures taken are still undergoing changes by the executive branch and are thus a “moving target”, our survey reveals early evidence of differentiation between foreign and domestic actors in the emergency plans adopted by this sample grouping. It is this differentiation that may give rise to liability as breaching guarantees against discrimination of foreign investors under international investment law.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, International Affairs, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and Ireland
389. The revised national security review process for FDI in the US
- Author:
- Mark E. Plotkin and David N. Fagan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- On December 22, 2008, new regulations setting forth the U.S. government's national security review process for foreign mergers and acquisitions of U.S. businesses became effective. They are the ultimate step in a lengthy effort to revise and strengthen the reviews undertaken by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (“CFIUS”).
- Topic:
- Economics, National Security, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States
390. Investment from the GCC and Development in the Mediterranean. The Outlook for EU-GCC Financial and Economic Cooperation in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Bénédict de Saint-Laurent
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Basic questions posed in this study were whether the trend of Gulf involvement in the Mediterranean economies was sustainable, what the specifics of those investments are, and could a triangular cooperation be envisaged? What is clear is that Gulf investors have become major players in the Mediterranean with an investment volume of more than 70 billion Euro in nearly 700 projects since January 2003. The Gulf now seems to have joined Europe as a sustainable second investment pillar. The complementarities between needs and resources of Europe, GCC and Med countries call for the implementation of an integrated co-operation model, similar to the Japan-China-ASEAN triangle.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Middle East, and Arabia
391. Indian FDI falls in global economic crisis: Indian multinationals tread cautiously
- Author:
- Jaya Prakash Pradhan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Just over a year ago, outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from India seemed to be on a path of rapid and sustained growth. Its annual average growth of 98% during 2004–07 had been unprecedented , much ahead of OFDI growth from other emerging markets like China (74%), Malaysia (70%), Russia (53%), and the Republic of Korea (51%), although from a much lower base. Much of this recent growth had been fuelled by large-scale overseas acquisitions, however, and it faltered when the global financial crisis that started in late 2007 made financing acquisitions harder.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, South Asia, Malaysia, and Korea
392. Outward investment by Trans-Latin enterprises: reasons for optimism
- Author:
- Michael Mortimore and Carlos Razo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Despite the current economic crisis, outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) by Latin American and Caribbean enterprises continued its upward trend in 2008 (annex figure 1). OFDI by firms in the region reached nearly USD 35 billion in 2008, an increase of 42% with respect to 2007 (ECLAC, 2009a). However, several of the factors that fostered such growth have recently changed, possibly affecting OF DI prospects for 2009. This Perspective briefly explores these changes and their potential effects on firms' investing behavior, as well as some important countervailing factors that may cushion the effects of the economic crisis on Latin American firms' investment plan.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
393. The growth of Brazil's direct investment abroad and the challenges it faces
- Author:
- Luís Afonso Lima and Octavio de Barros
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- The internationalization of Brazilian companies is a relatively recent phenomenon. From 2000 to 2003, outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) averaged USD 0.7 billion a year. Over the four-year period 2004−2008, this average jumped to nearly USD 14 billion. In 2008, when global FDI inflows were estimated to have fallen by 15%, OFDI from Brazil almost tripled, increasing from just over USD 7 billion in 2007 to nearly USD 21 billion in 2008 (annex figure 1 below). Central Bank data put the current stock of Brazilian OFDI at USD 104 billion, an increase of 89% over 2003. Caution is in order about these figures, however, as in Brazilian outflows it is difficult to separate authentic FDI from purely financial investment under the guise of FDI. According to the most recent data, 887 Brazilian companies have invested abroad
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
394. China's Changing Outbound Foreign Direct Investment Profile: Drivers and Policy Implications
- Author:
- Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- In 1967 Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber published Le defi americain, a call to beware of American multinationals buying up the world. In the 1980s and 1990s it was Japan's turn, spawning books like Clyde Prestowitz's 1993 Trading Places: How We Are Giving Our Future to Japan. Today it is China's outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) that elicits the most anxiety China's OFDI has reached commercially and geoeconomically significant levels and begun to challenge international investment norms and affect international relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Asia
395. Criss-Crossing Globalization: Uphill Flows of Skill-Intensive Goods and Foreign Direct Investment
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development (CGD)
- Abstract:
- This paper documents an unusual and possibly significant phenomenon: the export of skills, embodied in goods, services or capital from poorer to richer countries. We first present a set of stylized facts. Using a measure which combines the sophistication of a country's exports with the average income level of destination countries, we show that the performance of a number of developing countries, notably China, Mexico and South Africa, matches that of much more advanced countries, such as Japan, Spain and USA. Creating a new combined dataset on FDI (covering greenfield investment as well as mergers and acquisitions) we show that flows of FDI to OECD countries from developing countries like Brazil, India, Malaysia and South Africa as a share of their GDP, are as large as flows from countries like Japan, Korea and the US. Then, taking the work of Hausmann et al (2007) as a point of departure, we suggest that it is not just the composition of exports but their destination that matters. In both cross-sectional and panel regressions, with a range of controls, we find that a measure of uphill flows of sophisticated goods is significantly associated with better growth performance. These results suggest the need for a deeper analysis of whether development benefits might derive not from deifying comparative advantage but from defying it.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Malaysia, India, South Africa, Brazil, Spain, and Korea
396. FDI Protectionism Is on the Rise
- Author:
- Karl P. Sauvant
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Over the past two decades or so, countries have liberalized their FDI regulatory frameworks and have put in place an international investment law regime that provides various protections for international investors. In the past few years, however, there are signs that countries are reevaluating their approach toward such investment. As a result, FDI protectionism is on the rise, with screening of inward M becoming more frequent. Typically, this is being done under the guise of "national interest" or similar concepts, often linked to strategic sectors and national champions. While the international investment law regime faces a challenge to find the right balance between the rights and responsibilities of governments and investors, care needs to be taken that the rise of FDI protectionism does not endanger a rules-based approach to FDI. An independent FDI Protectionism Observatory to monitor new protectionist measures and name and shame countries that take them is therefore needed.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
397. Global Value Chains, Technology Transfer and Local Firm Upgrading in Non-OECD Countries
- Author:
- Robert Kappel and Juliane Brach
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- The productivity and competitiveness of local firms in non-OECD countries depends as much on technological capacities and successful upgrading as in industrialized countries. However, developing countries undertake very little to no original R and primarily depend on foreign technology. Long-term contracts and subcontracting arrangements within global value chains are here very important forms of transnational cooperation and therefore also important channels for technology transfer, especially as the majority of these countries attract only limited foreign direct investment. Drawing on innovation and growth models as much as on value-chain literature, we outline an analytical model for empirical research on local firm upgrading in non-OECD countries and technology transfer within global value chains.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, Science and Technology, and Foreign Direct Investment
398. Russian outward FDI and its policy context
- Author:
- Andrei Panibratov and Kalman Kalotay
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from Russia often surprises outside observers by its landmark deals. One of them was the purchase in September 2009 of a 55% stake in General Motors' German affiliate Opel by a consortium of the Canadian car maker Magna and the Russian state-owned bank Sberbank. The latter is the largest creditor of the Russian car maker GAZ, and may represent its commercial interests in the contract. With this deal, Russia has bought into the industrial heartland of the world economy and could potentially access more advanced technology. This acquisition hints at the growth of Russian OFDI in general, which has prospered despite fears in many host countries that the investors are subject to Russian political interference, a fear that recently announced Russian policy intentions may allay.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
399. Can India catch up with China?
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Although it is only since 2000 that the growing economic power of the Chinese 'dragon' has emerged fully into the media spotlight, its GDP has in fact been growing at an average rate of close to 10% pa for the last 30 years. On a PPP basis, China is already the second largest economy in the world. The Indian 'elephant', on the other hand, has grown at a more sedate pace, but following a burst in the 2000s it now has the fourth largest GDP in the world on a PPP basis and has been close to emulating Chinese growth rates. With the global economy perhaps now starting to recover slowly from the deep recession, it is possible that India is better placed than China to benefit from what may prove to be a fairly slow period of growth in the developed economies in the years ahead, with the latter's huge exports of manufactured goods struggling to recapture the momentum of the last ten years. For China, net trade will probably be a significant drag on growth in the year ahead, while the stimulus from state-led investment may begin to peter out. In order to maintain earlier rapid growth, the Chinese economy will need to rely much more heavily on domestic demand than before, especially if global over-capacity appears in certain key industries. Despite the apparent resilience of the economy to the global recession, there are a number of question marks over whether this shift can be made quickly. India's fundamentals have become more favourable given the rise in its service sector and climbing FDI inflows (albeit both of these remain well below Chinese levels), and its lower reliance on trade will also mean that it is less exposed to what may be a lengthy period of sluggish world demand. But it also faces problems, including an inefficient agricultural sector, a still-burdensome bureaucracy and a cautious stance towards privatisation. Its fiscal position is also much weaker than China, which may be a long-term threat to greater foreign investment. India also has the benefit of being a democracy – although to date this has probably hampered rather than helped growth performance, it should facilitate faster growth in the longer term. China's authoritarian regime has enabled policies to be implemented more quickly and with little regard to public popularity, but this may be storing up socio-political problems for the longer term, especially if growth were to slow sharply. Demographic factors should also favour India, but again over the long term rather than the next decade. China's decision to start to reverse its one-child policy indicates mounting concern about its ageing population and labour shortages in the future. India on the other hand may be able to turn population growth trends to its advantage, as long as it can improve the skills base. In conclusion, although India's growth trend is forecast to pick-up to 7-8% over the next decade, this is not likely to be enough to overtake China's pace of expansion. But India's recent surge in growth was achieved with few reforms – if it can manage to implement further liberalisation measures, attract increasing FDI inflows and turn its more favourable demographics to its advantage, then the 'elephant' may begin to catch up with the 'dragon' after 2020, although by that time the gap will be even wider than it is now.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, and India
400. How far away is a global recovery?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Steep drops in output have been recorded across the industrialised world and much of the emerging market world in recent months. Such has been the scale of these declines that there is now little doubt that the global economy is set for its worst year since the end of WWII, with world GDP forecast to fall almost 1½% (and more than 2% at 2000US$). Significant uncertainties nevertheless remain about the economic outlook, in particular about how deep and protracted the recession will prove to be and how rapid an eventual recovery can be expected. A key factor generating uncertainty is that the current recession has been sparked by and accompanied by a major financial crisis. Recessions of this sort are often more severe than 'standard' recessions, featuring deeper and more sustained drops in asset prices, and a weaker impact from policy interventions due to malfunctioning banking systems. Equity and house prices have continued to drop in the early part of 2009, and there looks to be a significant risk that this weakness will drag on for some time – the average duration of stock price declines in previous financial crises is more than three years and for house prices around six years. The financial sector also remains in a highly dysfunctional state. Although the credit tightening process is showing some signs of coming to an end, stress levels remain extremely elevated and risk appetite is low with banks stuck in 'balance sheet repair mode'. This process is unlikely to be complete for some time. Retrenchment has also become a priority for the corporate and household sectors. In the face of a plunge in final demand, firms have slashed investment and begun destocking. Worryingly, the destocking process could continue f or several quarters as the ratio of inventory to sales remains high. US households were net re payers of debt in the final quarter of 2008, and it seems unlikely that the appetite to take on more debt will recover quickly there or elsewhere in the face of steep increases in unemployment and large falls in household wealth. Taylor rule analysis suggests that the 'appropriate' short-term interest rate for the major economies has now turned negative, supporting the big shift to quantitative easing now under way. Eventually, this and other stimuli in the pipeline should produce a strong recovery. But the outlook for 2010 has weakened significantly in recent weeks and the risks remain skewed toward a more deflationary outcome than that envisaged by our baseline forecast.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States