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82. Iran Has a Slow Motion Banking Crisis
- Author:
- Adnan Mazarei
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Suffering under Western sanctions and security challenges, Iran faces problems as well from its fragile banking system, which has been languishing for decades. Liquidity and solvency weaknesses pose a growing risk to the country’s financial stability. The sanctions reimposed by the United States in 2018 have heightened these vulnerabilities, but the problems also result from the heavy-handed role of the state, corruption, and the Central Bank of Iran’s failure to regulate and supervise the system. Iran’s ability to avoid a run on its banks is aided by their reliance on liquidity assistance, deposit insurance, and regulatory forbearance from the central bank. Depositors are forced to be patient because they have limited options to invest elsewhere. Iran has thus avoided a full-blown banking crisis. But the situation is not sustainable. Banks remain susceptible to external shocks, which could come from a complete halt to oil exports or war.
- Topic:
- Security, Financial Crisis, Sanctions, Banks, and Financial Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
83. The Cost of Holding Foreign Exchange Reserves
- Author:
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Eduardo Gómez
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Recent studies that have emphasized the costs of accumulating reserves for self-insurance purposes have overlooked two potentially important side-effects. First, the impact of the resulting lower spreads on the service costs of the stock of sovereign debt, which could substantially reduce the marginal cost of holding reserves. Second, when reserve accumulation reflects countercyclical LAW central bank interventions, the actual cost of reserves should be measured as the sum of valuation effects due to exchange rate changes and the local-to-foreign currency exchange rate differential (the inverse of a carry trade profit and loss total return flow), which yields a cost that is typically smaller than the one arising from traditional estimates based on the sovereign credit risk spreads. We document those effects empirically to illustrate that the cost of holding reserves may have been considerably smaller than usually assumed in both the academic literature and the policy debate.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Exchange Rate Policy, International Reserves, and Capital Flows
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
84. The Diffusion Of Protest Following The 2007–2008 Global Crash
- Author:
- Cristina Flesher Fominaya
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, hundreds of protests spread across the world. Remarkably, despite the diversity of polities, regimes, and socioeconomic status across countries, these protests share two core demands to a varying degree: greater, more meaningful, or “real” democracy; and greater economic justice. While these are two distinct demands, they cannot be sepa- rated from each other. Although initially (and understandably) the protests were interpreted in direct relation to the global economic crash, especially in those countries hit hardest by the crisis and austerity politics, it soon became clear that the protests also reflected a crisis of representative democracy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, Protests, and Global Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
85. Hezbollah Prioritizes Its Own Interests, Putting Lebanon at Risk
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As demonstrators rail against economic problems, corruption, and sectarianism, the group’s role in undermining the public’s financial and physical security is coming under greater scrutiny. Lebanese citizens took to the streets this weekend to protest the country’s acute financial crisis, which has been marked by one of the highest debt ratios in the world, a new currency crisis, and fears that a strike will close gas stations indefinitely. Many believe that deep-rooted corruption and sectarianism got them into this mess, and may now complicate efforts to get them out. Against this backdrop, more criticism is being directed at Hezbollah, the widely designated terrorist organization that is simultaneously the most powerful party in Lebanon’s government and an aggressively sectarian movement that keeps its activities and weapons outside the government’s control. As the Treasury Department recently noted, developments over the past few weeks have underscored the extent to which the group’s actions “prioritize its interests, and those of its chief sponsor, Iran, over the welfare of Lebanese citizens and Lebanon’s economy.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Corruption, Financial Crisis, Protests, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
86. Refugees in Lebanon: Perspectives from on the Ground
- Author:
- Dima Zayat, Serene Dardari, and Mona Yacoubian
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- In recent months, refugees in Lebanon are facing a dismal climate of social polarization, opportunistic political rhetoric, and increasing hostility, with the demolition of some informal camp settlements, enhanced labor law restrictions, and widespread protests. Humanitarian programs must navigate tensions between host, Palestinian and Syrian refugee communities against the backdrop of Lebanon’s serious economic and environmental difficulties. The Middle East Institute (MEI) and Anera held a panel discussion of the many challenges facing Syrian and Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. Dima Zayat and Serene Dardari, two experts with years of experience in the humanitarian sector in Lebanon, were joined by discussant Mona Yacoubian to assess these challenges and explore potential avenues to address them. Randa Slim (MEI) moderated the discussion.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, Refugees, Economy, Protests, and Xenophobia
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria
87. Venezuela: First episode of the new Cold War?
- Author:
- Slobodan Pajovic
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of 2019, Venezuela has been in the focus of international politics because of its political and institutional crisis, together with its economic and social collapse generated in 2013, transformed into a regional and international crisis. The exit of some estimated three to four million emigrants mostly to neighboring countries of human rights and democratic values, the authoritarian regime of socialist orientation, the current American strategy of strengthening its political and strategic influence in Latin America, the presence of significant non- regional emerging global factors, as well as the cyclical changes of political parties in power in this part of the world. Accordingly, this crisis tests the hemispheric and global leadership of has additionally deepened the contexts of theUS, the influences of emerging global powers the regional crisis including also the security aspect. In short, the crisis can be described as oscillating between the issues of defense like China, Russia, India or Turkey, recently, and the potential of Latin American regionalism and political consensus.
- Topic:
- Imperialism, Migration, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, Venezuela, and North America
88. Global Forums: Are They Must or Waste for the Global Governance?
- Author:
- Gülen Derya Zayim
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The age of globalization has brought about interdependency between the nation-states in all aspects of life while uncovering challenges for the sovereignty of the nations. Therefore, how an integrated world system involving multiple actors can efficiently be governed remain a subject of serious discussions. This study briefly explains the historical background of G7/8 along with its evolution to G20 and discusses their effectiveness and legitimacy in the context of global governance. It is worthy to discuss the issue since these global forums’ legitimacy and effectiveness subject to both critics and praises. Although the lessons from the global financial crisis consolidates the idea of global coherence, integrity and compliance, diverging political and economic conflict of interest of nations still make the international forums’ existence and future position in global governance open to discussions. Additionally, the last part of the study draws conclusion about Turkey and its place in global governance.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Financial Crisis, Governance, and G20
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Global Focus, and Mediterranean
89. Spain’s Labor Migration Policies in the Aftermath of Economic Crisis
- Author:
- Kate Hooper
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- For much of the 20th century, Spain was a country of emigration, with millions of its nationals moving to countries in the Americas and in North and Western Europe. In the 1980s, however, immigration to Spain began to pick up. Since then, the country has developed a legal framework for labor migration that features the active involvement of employers, trade unions, and regional governments. This report examines Spanish migration policies for low- and middle-skilled workers, and how these have changed as a result of fluctuating demand for immigrant labor. It also offers a profile of the country’s immigrant population, highlighting how Spain’s relationship with countries outside the European Union are reflected in its labor migration pathways and citizenship policies. The economic crisis that began in 2008 and its lingering effects—including pervasive high unemployment rates, particularly among young people—have put strain on this relatively young immigration system. Certain mechanisms, including parts of the Collective Management System that allows employers to recruit groups of workers, remain paused. And austerity cuts to national immigrant integration funding have left it to autonomous communities, provinces, and municipalities to take the lead in this area. Still, the country's approach to admitting workers from non-EU countries could inspire innovation at the EU level. In the years to come, top priorities for Spanish immigration policymakers will likely include addressing ongoing irregular migration, the arrival of increasing numbers of Venezuelans fleeing economic and political crisis, and—as sectors such as construction recover—how to adapt entry pathways and labor protections accordingly.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, and Employment
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Spain
90. International Coordination of Economic Policies in the Global Financial Crisis: Successes, Failures, and Consequences
- Author:
- Edwin M. Truman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- This paper evaluates international efforts to diagnose the global financial crisis and decide on appropriate responses, the treatments that were agreed and adopted, and the successes and failures as the crisis unfolded. International coordination of economic policies eventually contributed importantly to containing the crisis, but the authorities failed to agree on a diagnosis and the consequent need for joint action until the case was obvious. The policy actions that were adopted were powerful and effective, but they may have undermined prospects for coordinated responses to future crises.
- Topic:
- International Affairs, Financial Crisis, Economic Policy, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
91. Keeping Up with the Future: Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability and Geopolitical Risk
- Author:
- Cullen S. Hendrix and Sooyeon Kang
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The nature and magnitude of geopolitical risk is changing more rapidly than the ability to anticipate it, with increasingly severe economic consequences. This Policy Brief discusses the economic costs and risks associated with episodes of political instability, arguing that firms, government agencies, and international institutions must update their forecasting and risk assessment efforts to take global factors into account. Since the global financial crisis, political instability has shifted from emerging-market countries in the developing world to larger, more globally impactful econo¬mies. Acknowledging this changing risk profile—and developing better tools to predict major episodes of instability—will allow both policymakers and firms to plan with greater confidence.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Risk
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
92. Consolidating Neoliberalism through Privatisation: The Case of the EU after the Eurozone Crisis
- Author:
- Özgün Sarimehmet Duman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This article offers an inquiry into the increasing importance of privatisation policies in the European Union (EU). It evaluates the emphasis on international competitiveness and market efficiency to offer a comparative analysis of commodification, marketisation, liberalisation and privatisation policies in the pre- and post-crisis EU. It states that the EU introduced new mechanisms to explicitly promote privatisation policies in its member states after the Eurozone crisis. The article concludes that the EU’s lead in privatisation has functioned as a disciplinary mechanism for the member states to introduce and implement extensive privatisation policies. The EU has tended to consolidate neoliberalism through privatisation after the Eurozone crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, Privatization, Financial Crisis, European Union, and Neoliberalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe
93. Assessing Global Financial Stability
- Author:
- Tobias Adrian
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In the decade since the global financial crisis, there has understandably been great concern about potential threats to global financial stability, and policymakers have wisely remained vigilant in watching for warning signs of possible economic risk. At the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we remain committed to providing our 189 member countries with farsighted analyses of trends in the financial markets, thus guiding them toward sound policy choices that help maintain economic stability.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic Growth, Risk, IMF, and Financial Stability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
94. Responding to Economic and Ecological Deficits
- Author:
- Jonathan M. Harris
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Macroeconomic theory was shaken up in the wake of the financial crisis, with neoclassical approaches proving inadequate to analyze or respond to the need for policy action. Despite efforts to return to more conventional macro perspectives, a continuing re-evaluation of economic theory has important implications both for traditional economic concerns such as employment and inflation, and for ecological issues and the climate crisis. An emerging “green Keynesian” approach combines a radical Keynesian analysis with ecological priorities such as drastic carbon emissions reduction. One important aspect of this reorientation of theory is the analysis of economic and ecological deficits. In the years since the financial crisis, both economic and ecological deficits have increased. This poses a challenge for “green Keynesian” policy. It is therefore necessary to have effective analyses to measure and respond to ecological deficits, as well as policy measures to deal with economic deficits. This paper proposes a new approach to measuring ecological deficits, and a new perspective on economic deficits and debt. Since there is no single unitary measure for depletion or degradation of different kinds of resources, it is necessary to measure different kinds of deficit for different resources, with a goal of reducing all of these to zero or replacing them with surpluses. The analysis involves exploring the specific economic implications of reducing both ecological and economic deficits, which involves re-conceptualizing economic growth and "degrowth", and provides an alternative to current U.S. policies under the Trump administration, which are contributing to widening both deficits.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Debt, Financial Crisis, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
95. The Politics of Lebanon’s Economic Collapse
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the current issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin discusses the economic conditions that led to the current protest movement in Lebanon, focusing on the origins and impact of the banking crisis and how it relates to the political system.
- Topic:
- Politics, Financial Crisis, Economy, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
96. Indonesian Political Economy: A Historical Analysis
- Author:
- Tommaso Rossotti
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- Indonesia is one of the largest countries in the world in demographic, geographical and economic terms. Rich in natural resources, it is a member of the G20 and one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. From its independence in 1949, Indonesia lived dramatic changes in its political and economic system, moving from being an authoritarian state with a quasi-planned economy to being a (albeit flawed) democracy with a free market system. This paper is aimed to analyse briefly the most important phases of the post-colonial development path of the country, trying to highlight the events which mainly changed Indonesian economy and from this understand which are its sources of strength and weakness. The paper is therefore divided into three main parts. The first covers the most salient events that occurred in the country from its independence till mid-1990s, with a particular emphasis on Suharto’s “New Order” regime. The second part mainly focuses on the Asian Financial Crisis, explaining its causes and its political and economic effects on Indonesia. Finally, the last part deals with Indonesia in XXI century, focusing on the similarities and differences with the previous period and on the effects of the Global Financial Crisis on Indonesia.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Political Economy, Natural Resources, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
97. The International Monetary Fund’s Role in Overcoming Economic Crisis in PIIGS
- Author:
- Kinga Jasiak
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The financial crisis started in 2008 and touched the whole world but some countries experienced its consequences more than others. The European Union and in particular eurozone, slid into a stage of economic recession. Five of 28 EU countries faced the edge of financial fall, named PIIGS-Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Multidimensionality of the global crisis have caused that international economic organizations faced a great challenge, For them it was a test of efficiency and effectiveness. The leading role in this period belonged to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is standing on the guard of the whole international currency system. The aim of the article is to draw and analyze the most important IMF activities towards PIIGS, especially what instruments were proposed as a help and what changes had to be made by receiving states in order to receive the financial support. The ten-year perspective taken in the article allows for the more comprehensive assessment of the issue.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Financial Crisis, European Union, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
98. The Greek Crisis and Its Repercussions on the Balkan Neighbourhood: The End of the Myth
- Author:
- Marilena Koppa
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This article explores the role of Greece in the Balkans since the end of Communism and the impact of the sovereign debt crisis that followed. Since the beginning of the 1990s, while Greece failed to accomplish its vocation at the political level, at the level of the economy the country acted as an important regional actor. The article examines the dynamics of the Greek crisis on the Balkan economies and analyses the major challenges for Greece in this new reality. At the same times, it tries to identify the triple crisis faced currently by Greece: at the level of credibility and status, at the level of mediation between the region and the EU and, finally, at the level of the gradual peripherisation of the country.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Greece
99. Global Debt Dynamics: What Has Gone Wrong
- Author:
- Andreas Antoniades and Stephany Griffith-Jones
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the nature and characteristics of global debt dynamics in the post global financial crisis (GFC) period. First, we attempt to map the ways in which debt has been moving from sector to sector, and from one group of countries to another within the global economy. By capturing this inter-sectorial, inter-national, inter-regional movements of global debt we aspire to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of global debt and its mode of operation. Second, we attempt to analyse what is wrong with global debt dynamics, i.e. we examine the broken link between what global debt was supposed to do and what it does. Here, we point to three interrelated dynamics: the accumulation of unproductive debt, growing inequalities of income and wealth, and the increase in privately-created, interest-bearing money.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Global Focus, and Global Markets
100. Beyond International Standards: Mapping the Future of Capital Markets Regulation
- Author:
- Cally Jordan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- As a response to multiple financial shocks, international standards have disappointed. Consensus seeking has stifled innovation, perpetuating outdated regulatory concepts at a time of rapid market change. Markets are complex and idiosyncratic; they may not be receptive to efforts toward producing regulatory harmonization and convergence. Alternatives to international standard setting should be explored. Possibilities include fora for experimentation in capital markets regulation, the creation of a set of variegated model capital markets laws and a “restatement”-like treatise.
- Topic:
- Markets, Financial Crisis, Regulation, and Capitalism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus