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62. Salvaging Lebanon: Expert Opinions on a Way out of the Crisis
- Author:
- Ismael Sheikh Hassan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Lebanon is facing an unprecedented crisis with financial and economic collapse, lack of political trust, institutional deadlock, health crisis, and environmental degradation, to name a few. To face these challenges, the government should undertake a reform plan that addresses key priority areas to restore trust and salvage the country. We’ve asked experts to give their views about what they see as essential reforms in each area.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
63. Nizar Saghieh – No society disappears through bankruptcy: Its vitality alone can ensure accountability
- Author:
- Nizar Saghieh and Jamil Mouawad
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- This interview with lawyer and Executive Director of “The Legal Agenda” Nizar Saghieh addresses the most important dimensions of accountability following the economic and financial crisis that Lebanon is suffering. It expands the notions of justice, lack of trust in the judiciary, and widespread corruption while attempting to create hope by emphasizing the vitality of a civil society brought once more to the fore by the “17 October Uprising.” Rather than a mere uprising against power, this is now known as the revolution that revived and rebuilt society.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Financial Crisis, Social Movement, Protests, and Accountability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
64. The U.S. Fight against Coronavirus
- Author:
- Marek Wąsiński and Mateusz Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus outbreak is spreading throughout the United States. After its initial underestimation of the threat, the Trump administration has acted to fight against the pandemic, including the introduction of a national emergency. The effectiveness of these actions will be an important factor in whether Trump is re-elected. The limits on social life despite the enormous financial support from the government and the Federal Reserve have dramatically slowed the economy, heading into a recession. Public debt will increase much more rapidly, which may force budget cuts in the coming years.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Health, Financial Crisis, Health Care Policy, Crisis Management, Donald Trump, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
65. Financing the United Nations Secretariat: Resolving the UN’s Liquidity Crisis
- Author:
- Wasim Mir
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute (IPI)
- Abstract:
- The UN is currently facing its most challenging financial situation in nearly two decades. Despite taking emergency measures to reduce spending, the UN Secretariat’s severe liquidity problems have been getting progressively worse, to the point where they are starting to affect the UN’s ability to carry out its mandates. The main cause of this crisis is the late payment and nonpayment of member-state contributions. This issue brief breaks down the reasons why certain member states have not been paying in full or on time, which include the withholding of payments to express concerns about specific UN activities and domestic financial difficulties. It then considers the proposals the secretary-general has put forward to address the crisis: replenishing the existing reserves, incentivizing member states to make timelier payments by invoking Article 19 of the UN Charter sooner, and limiting the General Assembly’s use of creative measures to reduce spending. Since these proposals currently have little backing from member states, the paper also suggests looking at alternative approaches, including allowing the UN Secretariat to borrow commercially or pool cash balances. As the domestic dynamics that lead to late payment and nonpayment will not change quickly, the paper urges member states not to ignore the issue and hope that it will resolve itself. They need to urgently consider what measures could help mitigate the crisis as soon as possible.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Financial Crisis, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
66. Causal Mechanism and Explanation in Social Science
- Author:
- Renate Mayntz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- In the social sciences, the development of a specific social event or structure is often ex- plained by a statistical correlation between an independent variable and a variable assumed to be dependent upon it. This mode of explanation is contested by a methodology of causal reconstruction that operates with the concept of mechanisms. A mechanism is a process in which a set of linked steps leads from initial conditions to an outcome or effect. Mechanisms are general concepts, subjecting individual cases to a general category. Except for the litera- ture dealing specifically with the concept, the term “mechanism” is often used without defi- nition of its substantive content; there is no agreement with respect to the unique or plural character of the initial conditions, nor to the structure of the causal path leading to a specific outcome. Nevertheless, mechanisms have played a crucial role in detailed causal analysis of complex historical events, such as the financial crisis of 2008 and German unification of 1989.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Nationalism, Financial Crisis, and Unification
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, West Germany, Central Europe, and East Germany
67. Responding to the Coronavirus Crisis: Selected Ideas and Learnings for Asia’s Finance Management Leaders
- Author:
- David Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- Measures to contain the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak – including factory shutdowns, town-level lockdowns and quarantines, and transport bans affecting regional, national and international movement of goods and people – are resulting in a steep decline in household consumption. In parallel, ongoing disruptions of production, distribution, and retail have brought key industrial sectors to near standstill, set off ripple effects throughout regional supply chains, and created intense cash flow shortages from beginning to end of value chains. As of March 1, 2020, there has yet to emerge a definitive path to containment and remission of the crisis. Financial pressures on firms are increasing. The challenges wrought by the crisis for Finance managers are complex and cascading: cash flows are strained by stalled supply chains and channel operations, increasing uncertainty requires wider scenario forecasting, and access to capital has tightened. If virus containment and remission cannot be achieved in the short-term, financial markets are vulnerable to both private sector bankruptcies and household mortgage defaults. The specter of financial crisis looms large. The following assemblage of insights and learnings from our internal experts and member network will hopefully provide some helpful guideposts. The catalog below[1] essentially resolves down to three executive actions to address the challenges ahead:
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Business, Coronavirus, Industry, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia
68. Sovereign debt restructuring: The centrality of the IMF's role
- Author:
- Sean Hagan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Over the past 40 years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played a central role in the sovereign debt restructuring process. If the COVID-19 pandemic leads to a significant wave of sovereign debt distress, this role will be closely scrutinized. The paper analyzes how IMF policies have evolved to shape the incentives of sovereigns and their creditors at each stage of the sovereign debt restructuring process. It also identifies a number of issues that the IMF will likely have to address as a result of the pandemic, including (1) assessment of debt sustainability in a macroeconomic environment of considerable uncertainty, (2) treatment of official bilateral creditors, and (3) potential benefits—and challenges—of introducing additional incentives to maximize creditor participation in any debt restructuring.
- Topic:
- Debt, Emerging Markets, Government, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
69. When more delivers less: Comparing the US and French COVID-19 crisis responses
- Author:
- Jérémie Cohen-Setton and Jean Pisani-Ferry
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The US package of measures to help households hit by the economic shock from the COVID-19 crisis, including the Paycheck Protection Program, is almost twice as large in proportion of GDP as the French package, but it has proven less effective in curbing unemployment because of poor design and implementation. In contrast, the increase in the unemployment rate in France has been five times less than the increase in the United States. Cohen-Setton and Pisani-Ferry dive beneath the unreliable headline numbers to assess the effectiveness of government support provided to households in March–May 2020 in the two countries. They conclude that the French approach (mirrored in some other European countries) delivered a bigger bang for the buck. But the fact that the US approach has fallen short should not diminish the significance of the policy shift signaled by the enactment of measures to maintain household income.
- Topic:
- Education, Financial Crisis, European Union, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, North America, and United States of America
70. A possible IMF Pandemic Support Facility for emerging-market countries
- Author:
- Matthew Fisher and Adnan Mazarei
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adapts its strategy to meet the challenges of the COVID-19 crisis, it should develop a new temporary lending instrument to assist emerging-market countries facing pandemic-related fiscal and balance of payments difficulties. A dedicated IMF Pandemic Support Facility would help meet the exceptional financing needs of emerging-market countries at a time of high uncertainty while providing more lenient repayment periods and also allow the Fund to be more flexible in its operations with minimum disruptions to its existing facilities.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
71. Lebanon's monetary meltdown tests the limits of central banking
- Author:
- Patrick Honohan and Adnan Mazarei
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Lebanon has spent the last 20 years juggling an excessive level of debt and current account deficits. Apparent financial wizardry by the central bank (Banque du Liban) helped keep the exchange rate fixed, inflation low, and debt service flowing until 2020. But these efforts merely postponed the inevitable, at a high cost. Repeated shocks to the Lebanese economy and governance weaknesses pushed the financial contraption over the cliff before the COVID-19 outbreak. The explosion that ripped through the Port of Beirut in early August added to the disarray. The Lebanese pound has crashed, the government has defaulted on some of its debt, and restrictions have been placed on deposit withdrawals and access to foreign exchange. Lebanon faces an uncertain future of uneven suffering. It will need foreign assistance, but such assistance will not extend to covering the losses of the banking system. How the losses are distributed will set the scene for Lebanon’s future development. Policymakers should aim for fairness, predictability, and stability without overindebtedness.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Central Bank, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
72. Sovereign debt relief in the global pandemic: Lessons from the 1980s
- Author:
- Edwin M. Truman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic and an unprecedented global recession have triggered fears of a debt crisis requiring massive intervention by international financial institutions as well as debt restructuring by private and official creditors. Truman draws two lessons for the current crisis, based on his ring-side experience during the debt crises of the 1980s. First, the initiation of debt relief will require a broad consensus among four groups: the borrowing countries, their foreign creditors, the authorities of the countries in which those creditors are located, and international institutions. Reaching consensus takes time. Second, implementation of the consensus framework will be case by case, because of differences in the political and economic circumstances of each country, which will militate against simple replication for different countries and against implementation all at the same time. Any framework will not be self-implementing. While the call for rapid action is understandable, applying a one-size-fits-all approach will not be possible.
- Topic:
- Debt, Emerging Markets, History, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, World Bank, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
73. The Impact of COVID-19 on India’s Economy and International Standing
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Despite the government’s restrictive preventive measures, India has emerged as one of the countries most affected by COVID-19, and it has yet to reach the peak of infections. The pandemic has ignited the most serious economic crisis in the country’s history, worsened India’s investment attractiveness, and constrained resources that would otherwise help it pursue a greater international role. The economic crisis also undermines the country’s international image, boosted by the quick and decisive response to the pandemic in its initial phase. At the same time, the economic problems and the continued fight against the pandemic will encourage the authorities to deepen cooperation with the EU in public health, the economy, and security.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
74. External Actors, Good Governance and Health Care Delivery in Africa
- Author:
- Benjamin Uchenna Anaemene
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- The structural adjustment programme imposed by the World Bank and IMF in the face of the serious economic crisis that confronted African states in the 1980s resulted in severe cuts in state spending on social services including health. State failure in the provision of social services led to the externalisation of responsibility for health and the proliferation of actors working in the field of health across the continent. Despite the positive and negative consequences of this development on Africa, the debate about the role of external actors in health care delivery in Africa has dwelt extensively on the degree they should participate neglecting the emphasis on how they participate, under what conditions and with what consequences. Using qualitative data techniques, this article examines the involvement of external actors in health care delivery in Africa illustrating the nature, pattern, dimensions, and dynamics of such engagements in the context of popular concerns with good governance. It found that governance challenges constitute a serious obstacle to better health outcome in Africa. It posits that African states can only maximise their gains from external assistance for health if they take leadership in coordinating health activities in their countries within the context of a comprehensive national health plan.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Governance, World Bank, and Health Care Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa
75. International Financial Regulation: Why It Still Falls Short
- Author:
- William White
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- While recent reforms are welcome in many ways, there are still significant reasons to doubt that the post-crisis tightening of international financial regulation guarantees future financial and economic stability. The most important reason is that the reforms have focused too narrowly on ensuring that an unstable financial sector will not aggravate downturns by restricting the supply of credit. More attention needs to be paid to ensuring that an overly exuberant financial system does not weaken other parts of the economy by encouraging a rapid buildup of debt during upturns. Some combination of time-varying monetary and regulatory policies (a macrofinancial stability framework) will be required to do this. In addition, many of the individual regulatory measures taken to date, both macroprudential and microprudential, have shortcomings. Their coherence as a package has also been questioned.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Financial Crisis, Reform, Banks, and Subsidies
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
76. Financial Transactions Taxes: Inaccessible and Expensive
- Author:
- Diego Zuluaga
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Financial transactions taxes (FTTs) have become increasingly popular since the 2008 financial crisis. During the 2020 Democratic presidential primary race, FTTs featured prominently on the platforms of both moderate Michael Bloomberg and socialist Bernie Sanders. The likely nominee, Joe Biden, has also expressed support for an FTT, albeit without offering any details in his election platform.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Finance, Domestic Politics, Tax Systems, and Transactions
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
77. Explaining Turkey’s Current Economic Crisis
- Author:
- Erinc Yeldan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- Turkey entered a new phase of recession-cum-real economy crisis starting in the last quarter of 2018. In contrast to the previous crisis episodes of 1994, 2001 or 2009, when the economy had abruptly shrunk with a spectacular collapse of asset values and a severe contraction of output, the 2018- crisis is characterized by a prolonged recession with persistent low (negative) rates of growth, dwindling investment performance, debt repayment problems, secularly rising open unemployment, a spiraling currency depreciation and high inflation. Popular explanations from the mainstream tradition attribute this dismal performance to a lack of “structural reforms” and/or exogenous factors. Per contra, our analysis shows that the underlying sources of the crisis are to be found not in the conjunctural cycles of reform fatigue, but rather in the post-2001 neoliberal speculative-led growth model with excessive reliance on hot money flows and foreign debt accumulation. We argue that following the post-2001 orthodox reforms, a foreign-capital-inflow-dependent, debt-led, and construction-centered economic growth model dominated the economy and caused a long buildup of imbalances and increased fragilities.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Financialisation, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
78. This Time Was Different: The Global Safe Asset Shortage and Shadow Banking in Socio-Historical Perspective
- Author:
- Photis Lysandrou and Anastasia Nesvetailova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
- Abstract:
- Safe assets and shadow banking are two closely linked phenomena in contemporary finance. The link is loan securitisation: at a time of a global safe asset shortage, it falls on the shadow banking system to help make good that shortage by manufacturing extra quantities of asset backed securities. When these quantities cannot keep up with volume of safe asset demand, the shadow banking system comes under pressure to manufacture the type of complex structured securities that can potentially cause a financial crisis. That potentiality became reality with the great financial crisis of 2007-8. If a further financial crisis of this scale is to be averted, the regulation of the shadow banking system should be informed by an understanding of the contemporary socioeconomic circumstances that continue to cause a global safe asset shortage. This paper attempts to contribute to such an understanding.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Banking, Securitization, and Safe Asset
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
79. Venezuelan Migration and the Border Health Crisis in Colombia and Brazil
- Author:
- Shannon Doocy, Kathleen Page, Fernando de la Hoz, Paul Spiegel, and Chris Beyer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- Venezuela’s economic crisis has triggered mass migration; more than 3.4 million Venezuelans have fled to other countries in the region and beyond. An assessment mission to Cúcuta, in the Colombian border state of North Santander, was undertaken from July 26 to August 1, 2018, and to Bôa Vista and Pacaraima, in the state of Roraima, Brazil, between August 24 and 28, 2018. Interviews were conducted with key informants, including health providers and organizations engaged in the humanitarian response. Secondary analysis of gray literature and data shared by key informants was also undertaken. Surveillance data demonstrate increases in infectious diseases, as well as adverse maternal and neonatal health outcomes, among Venezuelans in North Santander and Roraima. Summary of Findings for North Santander Reportable public health surveillance events among Venezuelans increased from 182 in 2015 to 865 in the first half of 2018. In 2018, the most common reported events included gender-based and intrafamiliar violence (17 percent), malaria (15 percent), and acute malnutrition in children <5 years (9 percent). There were 14 measles cases reported between January and June 2018 (compared to none in the previous years), the majority associated with migration from Venezuela. Thirty-six cases of maternal morbidity and two cases of maternal mortality among Venezuelans were observed in the first half of 2018 (compared to three cases of maternal morbidity and no maternal deaths in 2015). Low-birth-weight Venezuelan births rose from three in 2015 to 34 in 2017. Between January 2017 and June 2018, emergency medical attention was provided to 19,108 Venezuelans in government health facilities. Summary of Findings for Roraima In 2018, there were 355 cases of measles in Roraima (compared to none in previous years) — all cases had the genotype lineage originating in the 2017 Venezuelan measles outbreak. Children younger than one year old (812.1/100,000) had the highest measles incident rate in Roraima, followed by children 1–4 years old (245.7/100,000). Malaria cases among Venezuelans increased 3.5-fold from 2015 to 2018 (1,260 vs. 4,402 cases). As of August 2018, 171 HIV-infected Venezuelans were receiving HIV care at the Coronel Motta Clinic in Bôa Vista, Roraima. In 2018, 1,603 Venezuelan women gave birth at the Hospital Materno-Infantil in Bôa Vista, and by mid-2018, 10,040 Venezuelans had received outpatient care and 666 had been hospitalized at the Hospital General Roraima. In Colombia, primary healthcare is not available to Venezuelans, and provision of emergency care is perceived as unsustainable given current funding mechanisms. In Brazil, primary care is available to Venezuelans, but the healthcare system is under severe strain to meet the increased demand for care and is facing unprecedented shortages in medications and supplies. There is an urgent need to expand the humanitarian health response in Colombia and Brazil, both to ensure health among Venezuelans and to protect public health in border areas.
- Topic:
- Health, Migration, Financial Crisis, Border Control, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, Central America, Venezuela, and North America
80. Evolve or Perish: The Global Forces Changing the Business of Banks
- Author:
- Robert Fay and Angelo Arcelli
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Group of Twenty embarked on an ambitious financial regulatory reform plan that has seen many banks worldwide make substantial progress in terms of both capitalization and governance. Over this period, banks have also become increasingly exposed to business risks from digitization, artificial intelligence and cybercrime, and major investments are necessary to manage these risks. New regulations have been introduced in the European Union to reduce these risks, but their associated costs have potentially created a lasting competitive disadvantage for European banks. This situation has raised some key questions that deserve to be discussed and investigated: How does regulation — including that outside the sector — affect banks’ ability to compete globally? What will be the impact of fintech players as well as globally active banks from China and other emerging markets? Can the Basel regulatory framework and Financial Stability Board (FSB) ensure a level playing field globally going forward, or has the regulatory pendulum swung too far? How will the supervisory approach need to be adapted to the changing structure of the global financial system? Moreover, how will the implementation of Basel reforms affect the industry? These and other questions remain about the effectiveness of the already-achieved reforms as well as their future direction. These issues were at the core of CIGI and Oliver Wyman’s fifth annual Financial Regulatory Outlook Conference, held in Rome on November 28, 2018. This conference report summarizes the key points of discussions at the conference, with a special focus on the 10 years of regulatory reform that was conducted under the auspices of the FSB and the new forces that are currently affecting banks and could have an impact on the future.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Regulation, Europe Union, and Digital Culture
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus