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61. When more delivers less: Comparing the US and French COVID-19 crisis responses

Author:
Jérémie Cohen-Setton and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The US package of measures to help households hit by the economic shock from the COVID-19 crisis, including the Paycheck Protection Program, is almost twice as large in proportion of GDP as the French package, but it has proven less effective in curbing unemployment because of poor design and implementation. In contrast, the increase in the unemployment rate in France has been five times less than the increase in the United States. Cohen-Setton and Pisani-Ferry dive beneath the unreliable headline numbers to assess the effectiveness of government support provided to households in March–May 2020 in the two countries. They conclude that the French approach (mirrored in some other European countries) delivered a bigger bang for the buck. But the fact that the US approach has fallen short should not diminish the significance of the policy shift signaled by the enactment of measures to maintain household income.
Topic:
Education, Financial Crisis, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, France, North America, and United States of America

62. A possible IMF Pandemic Support Facility for emerging-market countries

Author:
Matthew Fisher and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adapts its strategy to meet the challenges of the COVID-19 crisis, it should develop a new temporary lending instrument to assist emerging-market countries facing pandemic-related fiscal and balance of payments difficulties. A dedicated IMF Pandemic Support Facility would help meet the exceptional financing needs of emerging-market countries at a time of high uncertainty while providing more lenient repayment periods and also allow the Fund to be more flexible in its operations with minimum disruptions to its existing facilities.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

63. Lebanon's monetary meltdown tests the limits of central banking

Author:
Patrick Honohan and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Lebanon has spent the last 20 years juggling an excessive level of debt and current account deficits. Apparent financial wizardry by the central bank (Banque du Liban) helped keep the exchange rate fixed, inflation low, and debt service flowing until 2020. But these efforts merely postponed the inevitable, at a high cost. Repeated shocks to the Lebanese economy and governance weaknesses pushed the financial contraption over the cliff before the COVID-19 outbreak. The explosion that ripped through the Port of Beirut in early August added to the disarray. The Lebanese pound has crashed, the government has defaulted on some of its debt, and restrictions have been placed on deposit withdrawals and access to foreign exchange. Lebanon faces an uncertain future of uneven suffering. It will need foreign assistance, but such assistance will not extend to covering the losses of the banking system. How the losses are distributed will set the scene for Lebanon’s future development. Policymakers should aim for fairness, predictability, and stability without overindebtedness.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Central Bank, and Banking
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

64. Sovereign debt relief in the global pandemic: Lessons from the 1980s

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The coronavirus pandemic and an unprecedented global recession have triggered fears of a debt crisis requiring massive intervention by international financial institutions as well as debt restructuring by private and official creditors. Truman draws two lessons for the current crisis, based on his ring-side experience during the debt crises of the 1980s. First, the initiation of debt relief will require a broad consensus among four groups: the borrowing countries, their foreign creditors, the authorities of the countries in which those creditors are located, and international institutions. Reaching consensus takes time. Second, implementation of the consensus framework will be case by case, because of differences in the political and economic circumstances of each country, which will militate against simple replication for different countries and against implementation all at the same time. Any framework will not be self-implementing. While the call for rapid action is understandable, applying a one-size-fits-all approach will not be possible.
Topic:
Debt, Emerging Markets, History, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, World Bank, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

65. The Impact of COVID-19 on India’s Economy and International Standing

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Despite the government’s restrictive preventive measures, India has emerged as one of the countries most affected by COVID-19, and it has yet to reach the peak of infections. The pandemic has ignited the most serious economic crisis in the country’s history, worsened India’s investment attractiveness, and constrained resources that would otherwise help it pursue a greater international role. The economic crisis also undermines the country’s international image, boosted by the quick and decisive response to the pandemic in its initial phase. At the same time, the economic problems and the continued fight against the pandemic will encourage the authorities to deepen cooperation with the EU in public health, the economy, and security.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

66. External Actors, Good Governance and Health Care Delivery in Africa

Author:
Benjamin Uchenna Anaemene
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The structural adjustment programme imposed by the World Bank and IMF in the face of the serious economic crisis that confronted African states in the 1980s resulted in severe cuts in state spending on social services including health. State failure in the provision of social services led to the externalisation of responsibility for health and the proliferation of actors working in the field of health across the continent. Despite the positive and negative consequences of this development on Africa, the debate about the role of external actors in health care delivery in Africa has dwelt extensively on the degree they should participate neglecting the emphasis on how they participate, under what conditions and with what consequences. Using qualitative data techniques, this article examines the involvement of external actors in health care delivery in Africa illustrating the nature, pattern, dimensions, and dynamics of such engagements in the context of popular concerns with good governance. It found that governance challenges constitute a serious obstacle to better health outcome in Africa. It posits that African states can only maximise their gains from external assistance for health if they take leadership in coordinating health activities in their countries within the context of a comprehensive national health plan.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Governance, World Bank, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

67. The Economic Consequences of Globalisation in the United States

Author:
Peter Petri and Meenal Banga
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The unprecedented rise in global interdependence since World War II, especially since the 1970s, has been very productive. World gross domestic product (GDP) growth increased from around 2% per year in the 1970s to 4% per year before the global financial crisis. Globalisation helped to lift a billion people from extreme poverty and improved the lives of billions more. The United States also gained an estimated 11%–19% of its annual GDP. Yet many Americans are concerned about the fairness of these gains. We review evidence of increasing wage inequality and stubborn unemployment effects, even though, on balance, technological change has had a much greater impact on these outcomes than globalisation. Barriers against globalisation do not offer solutions to inequality – they reduce the size of the economic pie without necessarily improving its distribution. Policies should focus on redistributing gains from growth, increasing the productivity of all workers, and helping affected communities adapt socially and economically to rapid change.
Topic:
Globalization, Financial Crisis, Inequality, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
United States and North America

68. The U.S. Fight against Coronavirus

Author:
Marek Wąsiński and Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The coronavirus outbreak is spreading throughout the United States. After its initial underestimation of the threat, the Trump administration has acted to fight against the pandemic, including the introduction of a national emergency. The effectiveness of these actions will be an important factor in whether Trump is re-elected. The limits on social life despite the enormous financial support from the government and the Federal Reserve have dramatically slowed the economy, heading into a recession. Public debt will increase much more rapidly, which may force budget cuts in the coming years.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Health, Financial Crisis, Health Care Policy, Crisis Management, Donald Trump, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

69. Financing the United Nations Secretariat: Resolving the UN’s Liquidity Crisis

Author:
Wasim Mir
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
The UN is currently facing its most challenging financial situation in nearly two decades. Despite taking emergency measures to reduce spending, the UN Secretariat’s severe liquidity problems have been getting progressively worse, to the point where they are starting to affect the UN’s ability to carry out its mandates. The main cause of this crisis is the late payment and nonpayment of member-state contributions. This issue brief breaks down the reasons why certain member states have not been paying in full or on time, which include the withholding of payments to express concerns about specific UN activities and domestic financial difficulties. It then considers the proposals the secretary-general has put forward to address the crisis: replenishing the existing reserves, incentivizing member states to make timelier payments by invoking Article 19 of the UN Charter sooner, and limiting the General Assembly’s use of creative measures to reduce spending. Since these proposals currently have little backing from member states, the paper also suggests looking at alternative approaches, including allowing the UN Secretariat to borrow commercially or pool cash balances. As the domestic dynamics that lead to late payment and nonpayment will not change quickly, the paper urges member states not to ignore the issue and hope that it will resolve itself. They need to urgently consider what measures could help mitigate the crisis as soon as possible.
Topic:
United Nations, Financial Crisis, and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

70. Causal Mechanism and Explanation in Social Science

Author:
Renate Mayntz
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
In the social sciences, the development of a specific social event or structure is often ex- plained by a statistical correlation between an independent variable and a variable assumed to be dependent upon it. This mode of explanation is contested by a methodology of causal reconstruction that operates with the concept of mechanisms. A mechanism is a process in which a set of linked steps leads from initial conditions to an outcome or effect. Mechanisms are general concepts, subjecting individual cases to a general category. Except for the litera- ture dealing specifically with the concept, the term “mechanism” is often used without defi- nition of its substantive content; there is no agreement with respect to the unique or plural character of the initial conditions, nor to the structure of the causal path leading to a specific outcome. Nevertheless, mechanisms have played a crucial role in detailed causal analysis of complex historical events, such as the financial crisis of 2008 and German unification of 1989.
Topic:
Cold War, Nationalism, Financial Crisis, and Unification
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, West Germany, Central Europe, and East Germany

71. Responding to the Coronavirus Crisis: Selected Ideas and Learnings for Asia’s Finance Management Leaders

Author:
David Hoffman
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
Measures to contain the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak – including factory shutdowns, town-level lockdowns and quarantines, and transport bans affecting regional, national and international movement of goods and people – are resulting in a steep decline in household consumption. In parallel, ongoing disruptions of production, distribution, and retail have brought key industrial sectors to near standstill, set off ripple effects throughout regional supply chains, and created intense cash flow shortages from beginning to end of value chains. As of March 1, 2020, there has yet to emerge a definitive path to containment and remission of the crisis. Financial pressures on firms are increasing. The challenges wrought by the crisis for Finance managers are complex and cascading: cash flows are strained by stalled supply chains and channel operations, increasing uncertainty requires wider scenario forecasting, and access to capital has tightened. If virus containment and remission cannot be achieved in the short-term, financial markets are vulnerable to both private sector bankruptcies and household mortgage defaults. The specter of financial crisis looms large. The following assemblage of insights and learnings from our internal experts and member network will hopefully provide some helpful guideposts. The catalog below[1] essentially resolves down to three executive actions to address the challenges ahead:
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Business, Coronavirus, Industry, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia

72. Causal Mechanism and Explanation in Social Science

Author:
Renate Mayntz
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
In the social sciences, the development of a specific social event or structure is often explained by a statistical correlation between an independent variable and a variable assumed to be dependent upon it. This mode of explanation is contested by a methodology of causal reconstruction that operates with the concept of mechanisms. A mechanism is a process in which a set of linked steps leads from initial conditions to an outcome or effect. Mechanisms are general concepts, subjecting individual cases to a general category. Except for the literature dealing specifically with the concept, the term “mechanism” is often used without definition of its substantive content; there is no agreement with respect to the unique or plural character of the initial conditions, nor to the structure of the causal path leading to a specific outcome. Nevertheless, mechanisms have played a crucial role in detailed causal analysis of complex historical events, such as the financial crisis of 2008 and German unification of 1989.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Reconstruction, Unification, Social Science, and Mechanism
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and United States of America

73. Venezuelan Migration and the Border Health Crisis in Colombia and Brazil

Author:
Shannon Doocy, Kathleen Page, Fernando de la Hoz, Paul Spiegel, and Chris Beyer
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
Venezuela’s economic crisis has triggered mass migration; more than 3.4 million Venezuelans have fled to other countries in the region and beyond. An assessment mission to Cúcuta, in the Colombian border state of North Santander, was undertaken from July 26 to August 1, 2018, and to Bôa Vista and Pacaraima, in the state of Roraima, Brazil, between August 24 and 28, 2018. Interviews were conducted with key informants, including health providers and organizations engaged in the humanitarian response. Secondary analysis of gray literature and data shared by key informants was also undertaken. Surveillance data demonstrate increases in infectious diseases, as well as adverse maternal and neonatal health outcomes, among Venezuelans in North Santander and Roraima. Summary of Findings for North Santander Reportable public health surveillance events among Venezuelans increased from 182 in 2015 to 865 in the first half of 2018. In 2018, the most common reported events included gender-based and intrafamiliar violence (17 percent), malaria (15 percent), and acute malnutrition in children <5 years (9 percent). There were 14 measles cases reported between January and June 2018 (compared to none in the previous years), the majority associated with migration from Venezuela. Thirty-six cases of maternal morbidity and two cases of maternal mortality among Venezuelans were observed in the first half of 2018 (compared to three cases of maternal morbidity and no maternal deaths in 2015). Low-birth-weight Venezuelan births rose from three in 2015 to 34 in 2017. Between January 2017 and June 2018, emergency medical attention was provided to 19,108 Venezuelans in government health facilities. Summary of Findings for Roraima In 2018, there were 355 cases of measles in Roraima (compared to none in previous years) — all cases had the genotype lineage originating in the 2017 Venezuelan measles outbreak. Children younger than one year old (812.1/100,000) had the highest measles incident rate in Roraima, followed by children 1–4 years old (245.7/100,000). Malaria cases among Venezuelans increased 3.5-fold from 2015 to 2018 (1,260 vs. 4,402 cases). As of August 2018, 171 HIV-infected Venezuelans were receiving HIV care at the Coronel Motta Clinic in Bôa Vista, Roraima. In 2018, 1,603 Venezuelan women gave birth at the Hospital Materno-Infantil in Bôa Vista, and by mid-2018, 10,040 Venezuelans had received outpatient care and 666 had been hospitalized at the Hospital General Roraima. In Colombia, primary healthcare is not available to Venezuelans, and provision of emergency care is perceived as unsustainable given current funding mechanisms. In Brazil, primary care is available to Venezuelans, but the healthcare system is under severe strain to meet the increased demand for care and is facing unprecedented shortages in medications and supplies. There is an urgent need to expand the humanitarian health response in Colombia and Brazil, both to ensure health among Venezuelans and to protect public health in border areas.
Topic:
Health, Migration, Financial Crisis, Border Control, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, Central America, Venezuela, and North America

74. Evolve or Perish: The Global Forces Changing the Business of Banks

Author:
Robert Fay and Angelo Arcelli
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Group of Twenty embarked on an ambitious financial regulatory reform plan that has seen many banks worldwide make substantial progress in terms of both capitalization and governance. Over this period, banks have also become increasingly exposed to business risks from digitization, artificial intelligence and cybercrime, and major investments are necessary to manage these risks. New regulations have been introduced in the European Union to reduce these risks, but their associated costs have potentially created a lasting competitive disadvantage for European banks. This situation has raised some key questions that deserve to be discussed and investigated: How does regulation — including that outside the sector — affect banks’ ability to compete globally? What will be the impact of fintech players as well as globally active banks from China and other emerging markets? Can the Basel regulatory framework and Financial Stability Board (FSB) ensure a level playing field globally going forward, or has the regulatory pendulum swung too far? How will the supervisory approach need to be adapted to the changing structure of the global financial system? Moreover, how will the implementation of Basel reforms affect the industry? These and other questions remain about the effectiveness of the already-achieved reforms as well as their future direction. These issues were at the core of CIGI and Oliver Wyman’s fifth annual Financial Regulatory Outlook Conference, held in Rome on November 28, 2018. This conference report summarizes the key points of discussions at the conference, with a special focus on the 10 years of regulatory reform that was conducted under the auspices of the FSB and the new forces that are currently affecting banks and could have an impact on the future.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Regulation, Europe Union, and Digital Culture
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

75. International Coordination of Economic Policies in the Global Financial Crisis: Successes, Failures, and Consequences

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper evaluates international efforts to diagnose the global financial crisis and decide on appropriate responses, the treatments that were agreed and adopted, and the successes and failures as the crisis unfolded. International coordination of economic policies eventually contributed importantly to containing the crisis, but the authorities failed to agree on a diagnosis and the consequent need for joint action until the case was obvious. The policy actions that were adopted were powerful and effective, but they may have undermined prospects for coordinated responses to future crises.
Topic:
Government, International Cooperation, Financial Crisis, and Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

76. Iran Has a Slow Motion Banking Crisis

Author:
Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Suffering under Western sanctions and security challenges, Iran faces problems as well from its fragile banking system, which has been languishing for decades. Liquidity and solvency weaknesses pose a growing risk to the country’s financial stability. The sanctions reimposed by the United States in 2018 have heightened these vulnerabilities, but the problems also result from the heavy-handed role of the state, corruption, and the Central Bank of Iran’s failure to regulate and supervise the system. Iran’s ability to avoid a run on its banks is aided by their reliance on liquidity assistance, deposit insurance, and regulatory forbearance from the central bank. Depositors are forced to be patient because they have limited options to invest elsewhere. Iran has thus avoided a full-blown banking crisis. But the situation is not sustainable. Banks remain susceptible to external shocks, which could come from a complete halt to oil exports or war.
Topic:
Security, Financial Crisis, Sanctions, Banks, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

77. The International Monetary Fund’s Role in Overcoming Economic Crisis in PIIGS

Author:
Kinga Jasiak
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The financial crisis started in 2008 and touched the whole world but some countries experienced its consequences more than others. The European Union and in particular eurozone, slid into a stage of economic recession. Five of 28 EU countries faced the edge of financial fall, named PIIGS-Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Multidimensionality of the global crisis have caused that international economic organizations faced a great challenge, For them it was a test of efficiency and effectiveness. The leading role in this period belonged to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is standing on the guard of the whole international currency system. The aim of the article is to draw and analyze the most important IMF activities towards PIIGS, especially what instruments were proposed as a help and what changes had to be made by receiving states in order to receive the financial support. The ten-year perspective taken in the article allows for the more comprehensive assessment of the issue.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Financial Crisis, European Union, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

78. Spain’s Labor Migration Policies in the Aftermath of Economic Crisis

Author:
Kate Hooper
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
For much of the 20th century, Spain was a country of emigration, with millions of its nationals moving to countries in the Americas and in North and Western Europe. In the 1980s, however, immigration to Spain began to pick up. Since then, the country has developed a legal framework for labor migration that features the active involvement of employers, trade unions, and regional governments. This report examines Spanish migration policies for low- and middle-skilled workers, and how these have changed as a result of fluctuating demand for immigrant labor. It also offers a profile of the country’s immigrant population, highlighting how Spain’s relationship with countries outside the European Union are reflected in its labor migration pathways and citizenship policies. The economic crisis that began in 2008 and its lingering effects—including pervasive high unemployment rates, particularly among young people—have put strain on this relatively young immigration system. Certain mechanisms, including parts of the Collective Management System that allows employers to recruit groups of workers, remain paused. And austerity cuts to national immigrant integration funding have left it to autonomous communities, provinces, and municipalities to take the lead in this area. Still, the country's approach to admitting workers from non-EU countries could inspire innovation at the EU level. In the years to come, top priorities for Spanish immigration policymakers will likely include addressing ongoing irregular migration, the arrival of increasing numbers of Venezuelans fleeing economic and political crisis, and—as sectors such as construction recover—how to adapt entry pathways and labor protections accordingly.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, and Employment
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

79. Indonesian Political Economy: A Historical Analysis

Author:
Tommaso Rossotti
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Indonesia is one of the largest countries in the world in demographic, geographical and economic terms. Rich in natural resources, it is a member of the G20 and one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. From its independence in 1949, Indonesia lived dramatic changes in its political and economic system, moving from being an authoritarian state with a quasi-planned economy to being a (albeit flawed) democracy with a free market system. This paper is aimed to analyse briefly the most important phases of the post-colonial development path of the country, trying to highlight the events which mainly changed Indonesian economy and from this understand which are its sources of strength and weakness. The paper is therefore divided into three main parts. The first covers the most salient events that occurred in the country from its independence till mid-1990s, with a particular emphasis on Suharto’s “New Order” regime. The second part mainly focuses on the Asian Financial Crisis, explaining its causes and its political and economic effects on Indonesia. Finally, the last part deals with Indonesia in XXI century, focusing on the similarities and differences with the previous period and on the effects of the Global Financial Crisis on Indonesia.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Political Economy, Natural Resources, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

80. The Cost of Holding Foreign Exchange Reserves

Author:
Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Eduardo Gómez
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Recent studies that have emphasized the costs of accumulating reserves for self-insurance purposes have overlooked two potentially important side-effects. First, the impact of the resulting lower spreads on the service costs of the stock of sovereign debt, which could substantially reduce the marginal cost of holding reserves. Second, when reserve accumulation reflects countercyclical LAW central bank interventions, the actual cost of reserves should be measured as the sum of valuation effects due to exchange rate changes and the local-to-foreign currency exchange rate differential (the inverse of a carry trade profit and loss total return flow), which yields a cost that is typically smaller than the one arising from traditional estimates based on the sovereign credit risk spreads. We document those effects empirically to illustrate that the cost of holding reserves may have been considerably smaller than usually assumed in both the academic literature and the policy debate.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Exchange Rate Policy, International Reserves, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America