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662. What Lessons Can We Learn from the Boom and Turmoil?
- Author:
- Jeffrey M. Lacker
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The current financial crisis undoubtedly will inspire a great deal of research in the years ahead, and it may take some time before anything like a professional consensus emerges on causes and consequences. After all, it took several decades to document the causes of the Great Depression, and recent research continues to provide new perspectives. Nonetheless, I believe the central questions that are likely to occupy researchers are plainly in view, and some tentative lessons have emerged already. And in any event, legislators are not likely to await the fruits of future scholarship.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Privatization, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
663. Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis
- Author:
- Mathew J. Burrows and Jennifer Harris
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Every four years, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) publishes an unclassified report projecting global trends over the next fifteen years. The intent is to help incoming decisionmakers lift their sights above the here-and-now, focusing on longer-term trends likely to shape the strategic future of the United States. Inevitably, the NIC's estimations find a far wider audience. The most recent edition, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (hereinafter the report), was published last November, and already has received substantial media attention both within the United States and overseas. Completing the report in the midst of the financial crisis required the NIC to make risky predictions on the world's most volatile issues, from youth bulges and climate change to odds on a nuclear Iran, from whether the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might soon be spelled SWF for sovereign wealth funds in the developing world, to a Russia (and a Gazprom) rising, even as the ground was shifting day to day beneath its feet.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
664. The Young Generation Prepares to Support the United Nations
- Author:
- Hans Blix and William J. vanden Heuvel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- Today, people throughout the world are experiencing the most severe set of global crises since the United Nations was formed over 60 years ago. They include financial, economic and environmental crises as well as crises of scarcity—of food, fuel and water.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, United Nations, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
665. The G-2 Mirage
- Author:
- Elizabeth C. Economy and Adam Segal
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- A heightened bilateral relationship may not be possible for China and the United States, as the two countries have mismatched interests and values. Washington should embrace a more flexible and multilateral approach.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Washington, Israel, and Palestine
666. Tectonic Shifts and Systemic Faultlines: A Global Perspective to Understand the 2008-2009 World Economic Crisis
- Author:
- Bülent GÖKAY
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
- Institution:
- Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
- Abstract:
- The last months of 2008 witnessed what is being called the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of 1929-30. The first indications of a serious crisis appeared in January 2008. On 15 January, news of a sharp drop in the profits of the Citigroup banking led to a sharp fall on the New York Stock Exchange. On 21 January a spectacular fall in share prices occurred in all major world markets, followed by a series of collapses. A number of American and European banks declared massive losses in their 2007 end of the year results.
- Topic:
- Economics and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- New York, America, and Europe
667. US Taxation of Multinational Corporations: What Makes Sense, What Doesn't
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jisun Kim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- As the administration and Congress catch their breath from rescuing the economy, their thoughts are quickly turning to other issues—including the structure of the US tax system. Everyone agrees that the US tax system inflicts enormous complexity on the American public. But reform is never easy. Who pays the tax burden ranks among the most contentious issues that Congress has historically faced, and this time around will be no different.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
668. The Internationalization of Chinese and Indian Firms: Trends, Motivations and Policy Implications
- Author:
- Sandeep Kapur and Suma Athreye
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The last two decades have seen a significant rise in the internationalization of firms from developing economies. In addition to their growing participation in international trade, a number of leading emerging economies are contributing to growing outflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and cross-border mergers and acquisitions. According to the 2008 World Investment Report, outward flows of FDI from developing countries rose from about US$6 billion between 1989 and 1991 to US$225 billion in 2007. As a percentage of total global outflows, the share of developing countries grew from 2.7% to nearly 13.0% during this period.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and India
669. Haiti: Is Economic Security Possible if Diplomats and Donors Do Their Part?
- Author:
- Robert Perito
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In 2009, Haiti has been the subject of an unprecedented diplomatic initiative led by the United Nations. In rapid succession, Haiti received visits from the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, the UN Security Council, former President Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and numerous senior delegations from Caribbean and South American countries. In April, Haiti was the subject of an international donors' conference hosted by the Inter-American Development Bank that reaffirmed previous commitments and pledged $324 million in new economic assistance. The visits and the donors' conference were preceded by a UN sponsored report by Oxford economist and bestselling author Paul Collier on specific steps that could help Haiti achieve economic security.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America, Caribbean, and Haiti
670. Wall Street/Main Street: The Challenge of Building Financial Security in the Obama Era
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The last 18 months have dealt a devastating blow to Americans' sense of financial security. Few have been untouched by the financial crisis. For many, wealth accumulated over years of saving and investing has disappeared almost overnight. For many more, the economic crisis has imperiled their jobs, their ability to provide for their families, and their optimism about the future.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
671. Rice Price Formation in the Short Run and the Long Run
- Author:
- C. Peter Timmer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes price formation on the world's rice market using simple supply and demand models as a start, but moving to “supply of storage” models—a staple of commodity-market analysis for more than half a century—to explain hoarding behavior and its subsequent impact on prices. The supply of storage model, however, does not account adequately for the influence that “outside” speculators have on prices. This paper quantifies the impact of financial factors and actors on commodity-price formation using very short-run prices and Granger causality analysis for a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including rice. The results are highly preliminary but are also very provocative. Speculative money seems to surge in and out of commodity markets, strongly linking financial variables with commodity prices during some time periods, but these periods are often short and the relationships disappear for long periods of time. Finally, the paper addresses the long-run (since 1900) relationships among the prices of the three basic cereal staples, rice, wheat and corn (maize), which have declined more than 1 percent per year over the past century. The decline accelerated after the mid-1980s; only the recent run-up in cereal prices in 2007–08 returned them to the long-run downward trend. Despite these common features and important cross-commodity linkages, however, price formation for rice has several unique dimensions worthy of further study.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Markets, Food, and Financial Crisis
672. Credit Default Swaps, Clearinghouses, and Exchanges
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- As its name suggests, the payoff on a credit default swap (CDS) depends on the default of a specific borrower, such as a corporation, or of a specific security, such as a bond. The value of these instruments is especially sensitive to the state of the overall economy. If the economy moves toward a recession, for example, the likelihood of defaults increases and the expected payoff on credit default swaps can rise quickly. The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTC C) estimates that in April 2009, the notional amount of credit default swaps outstanding was about $28 trillion. As a result of the overall size of the CDS market and the sensitivity of CDS payoffs to economic conditions, large exposures to credit default swaps can create substantial systemic risk.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
673. Building on Brahimi: Peacekeeping in an era of Strategic Uncertainty
- Author:
- Richard Gowan, Bruce Jones, and Jake Sherman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The politics of peacekeeping: crisis and opportunity. United Nations peace operations face an extended and dangerous period of strategic uncertainty. A series of setbacks have coincided with military overstretch and the financial crisis, raising the risk that UN peacekeeping may contract, despite high demand.
- Topic:
- Security, Peace Studies, United Nations, and Financial Crisis
674. Russia and the Global Meltdown: Domestic and Foreign Policy Responses to the International Financial Crisis
- Author:
- Robert Jellinek
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- This paper has its origins in the observation that government responses to the global financial crisis are as much political phenomena as they are economic. The current global financial crisis, among its many consequences, has on a very high level shaken up the world political order. And while the crisis is international in origin—its roots lie in the breadth and the degree of the dispersal of risk associated with mortgagebacked securities, as well as the growing imbalance in international capital flows—its resolution is necessarily being carried out first and foremost on a domestic level. This is not least of all because, in the decade since the Asian financial crises, states have begun to play a dramatically increased role in international finance in relation to both multilateral financial institutions such as the IMF and traditional private actors. In an age where global economic ties are integral to domestic economies and where states themselves are becoming some of the biggest players in international capital markets, a state's global financial standing will more than ever determine its political clout on the world stage. With states acting as market makers, lenders of last resort, and regulators of last resort, the key to understanding the future of individual states in the global economic order can be found only by analyzing states' domestic and foreign policy decisions within the context of the specific constraints facing those states at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Asia
675. Recovery: The Global Financial Crisis and Middle-Income Countries
- Author:
- Alejandro Foxley
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- No country has proved immune to the devastating effects of the current global financial crisis. But the middle-income countries of Eastern Europe, Latin America, and East Asia, which previously had achieved significant progress—economically and socially—have shown themselves to be particularly vulnerable. The crisis has highlighted important lessons for these countries, which inhabit a twilight zone between the developed and developing worlds?and those that aspire to join their ranks—as they rebuild.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, East Asia, and Latin America
676. Market Versus State: Postcrisis Economics in Latin America
- Author:
- Alejandro Foxley
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The global financial crisis has reignited the fierce debate about the roles of the market and the state in modern economies. Latin America, in particular, revisits this debate every time it suffers an external shock. While some blame unregulated markets, others fault states' inability to design institutions or implement policies capable of neutralizing the negative impact of these shocks on output, employment, and social welfare.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
677. G20 Report: Stimulus and Regulation Compromise Needed
- Author:
- Robin Niblett, Alexei Monsarrat, and Aola Subacchi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- What started last year as a growing international credit crunch and, by September, a global banking crisis has now spread into the real economy. International trade, investment and economic growth are all contracting. A drastic curtailment of credit, collapsing global demand and a loss of trade finance is having a devastating economic effect on both the developed and developing worlds, especially those economies that are heavily dependent on exports.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
678. Renewing Globalization and Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis World The Future of the G-20 Agenda
- Author:
- Alexei Monsarrat and Kiron K. Skinne
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This statement, delivered by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke in the understated manner of a central banker, was made nearly a year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers—the event that tipped the global financial system into full crisis. Bernanke's message starkly reveals the scope of the challenge facing the stewards of the global economy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
679. NATO and the Economic and Financial Crisis
- Author:
- Keith Hartley and Binyam Solomon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- These is some consensus among economic forecasters and international economic organizations that the world economy is stabilizing after the worst global contraction since the end of the Second World War. While it is difficult to ascertain empirically whether the massive fiscal policy support played a role or not, the improving credit conditions and the return of demand in the housing market in North America and the UK point to some evidence that the stimulus is providing the necessary short-term boost. Nonetheless, there remain significant challenges that may constrain a quick recovery including the decline in household wealth (debt-laden consumers rebuilding their savings), persistent unemployment and deleveraging (decreasing the amount of debt a firm holds by paying it off) in the financial system together with future long-term prospects of inflation.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and North America
680. Governance Challenges and the Financial Crisis: Seven Key Questions
- Author:
- Terry F. Buss and Lois Fu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
- Abstract:
- We are in the midst of a global economic crisis. The federal government has responded on an unprecedented scale and scope, with injections of trillions into financial markets, infusions of cash to troubled industries, state and local governments, and people in need. Government is employing tools in ways never befo re considered and inventing new tools, in the hope of stabilizing the economy and spurring economic recovery.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Reform