Topic: Emerging Markets - CIAO Search Results

1. Economic Security in Emerging Markets: A Look at India, Vietnam, and Indonesia

Author:: Matthew Goodman, Matthew Reynolds, and Julianne Fittipaldi
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: With the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chain resilience has emerged as a policy priority of the United States and its allies. The issue of supply chains has also raised the profile of emerging economies that offer possible alternatives to China as production platforms for multinational firms. This report surveys economic security policy developments in three major emerging economies: India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. It finds that all are attempting to take advantage of this new focus on supply chain resilience, while (to varying degrees) balancing the economic security risks posed by China’s rise. The United States and its allies have an opportunity to work with these emerging economies to shape their decisions about trade, investment, and technology policies in ways that promote mutual economic security and enhance international economic rules and norms.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: Indonesia, India, Asia, Vietnam, and Asia-Pacific

2. FDI Spillover Effects on Innovation Activities of Knowledge-using and Knowledge-creating Firms: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

Author:: Iraj Hashi, Mehtap Hisarciklilar, Slavo Radošević, Nebojša Stojčić, and Nina Vujanović
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: The beneficial effects of innovation for firms’ performance and competitiveness are well documented, but it has been suggested in recent years that innovation regimes differ between advanced and emerging economies. While advanced economies rely on knowledge generation, their emerging counterparts follow mainly a knowledge-use regime through the application of existing knowledge and technology. Climbing up the technological ladder can be helped through spillovers from foreign investors to local firms. We investigate whether FDI spillovers influence different phases of the innovation process (from decision to innovate to productivity) among knowledge-using and knowledge-creating firms in an emerging European economy. The results show that the innovation process in emerging economies is closer to the imitation than the creation of novel products. Local firms benefit from foreign counterparts in the early phase of the innovation process. Stronger FDI effects are found among firms that undertake innovation through knowledge use rather than through knowledge generation.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Investment, and Knowledge Systems
Political Geography:: Europe

3. Projecting Infrastructure Needs and the Financing Mechanism: A Review of Estimations by ADB, McKinsey, and the OECD

Author:: Fauziah Zen and Michael Regan
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: How much does a country, a region, and the world need to spend on infrastructure development to fulfil demand? This question has been asked frequently because governments try to see it as a reference for budget allocation and evaluation of development progress. Since infrastructure consists of a wide range of types, qualities, and sizes, it is difficult to come up with a number that represents these variants. Several widely cited attempts have been made to provide estimations of infrastructure needs. This paper aims to assess the features, scope, methods, and suggested financing mechanism of the projections made by the Asian Development Bank (2017), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2017), and the McKinsey Global Institute (2016). It is not meant to focus on the limitations of these projections, but to understand the process used to put these estimates together and the extent to which they provide comparative information.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Asia and ASEAN

4. An Uneven Global Rebound Will Challenge Emerging-Market and Developing Economies

Author:: Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: As the US economy rebounds amid elevated inflationary pressures and Europe grows at a rapid clip, an uneven global rebound looms. Although emerging-market and developing economies (EMDEs) generally retain good access to global capital markets for now, their relatively slow pace of COVID-19 vaccination will continue to hamper their economic recoveries and strain their public finances—already stretched owing to the fiscal pressures of the pandemic over the past year and a half. Higher interest rates in the rich countries, particularly the United States, could tip EMDEs into liquidity and even solvency crises. The likelihood of crises is higher if advanced-economy central banks move abruptly, surprising markets. Global policymakers should prepare now by enhancing mechanisms for providing liquidity to EMDEs and, in cases of insolvency, for restructuring their sovereign debts. Perhaps even more important, the scope for uneven recovery can be limited if rich countries make an all-out effort to deliver vaccines globally and enhance less prosperous countries’ infrastructures for getting shots into arms.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Inflation, Economic Development, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

5. Establishing the empirical basis for tracing the development outcomes of agricultural investments

Author:: Helle Munk Ravnborg, Bernard Bashaasha, Rikke Broegaard, Michael Byaruhanga, Evelyne Lazaro, Festo Maro, Khamaldin Mutabazi, Teddy Nakanwagi, and David Tumusiime
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This DIIS Working Paper describes the design of a questionnaire survey developed and implemented in order to trace the development outcomes of foreign agricultural investments in six research locations in Tanzania and Uganda. The questionnaire survey was conducted as part of the Agricultural Investors as Development Actors (henceforward AIDA) research programme which, in particular, focuses on development outcomes in terms of employment, migration, food security and wider dynamic economic effects, such as access to technology, infrastructure and markets; land markets and perceived security of land tenure; and water access and security of tenure. The working paper which serves as a methodological reference document describes the approach which was employed for drawing six independent samples of 400 respondents each, as well as the approach developed for computing a foreign agricultural investment exposure index and for computing a locally informed household poverty index.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Environment, Poverty, Water, Food, Governance, Inequality, Investment, and Land Rights
Political Geography:: Sub-Saharan Africa and Africa

6. The unappreciated trend toward unilateral trade liberalization

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Afrequently voiced complaint from the Trump administration was that US firms have faced a competitive disadvantage in exports because the US market is open and US tariffs are low but US trading partners protect their markets with high tariffs. The administration used this concern to justify raising US tariffs whenever it could. Lawrence argues that these claims should be more nuanced and account for the extensive unilateral liberalization by many countries over the past 30 years and that the grievances that motivated the Trump trade policies are increasingly misplaced. Many developing countries have reduced their tariffs unilaterally to rates that are far lower than they applied three decades ago and far less than the bound rates reflected in their World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations. Globally, on average, tariffs were not raised during the global financial crisis of 2008 and continued to decline through at least 2018. Even when shocks from imports resulted in serious injury to domestic industries, several developing countries temporarily provided safeguard protection but at levels that were lower than their WTO bound rates. This evidence of import liberalization also suggests that rising protectionism was not responsible for the slow growth in world trade that has been evident since 2011. It remains uncertain whether countries will now respond to disruptions to global supply chains since 2018 caused by Trump’s trade policies and the COVID-19 pandemic by reversing their tariff liberalization stance, but the sustained enthusiasm for new megaregional trade agreements suggests many countries will not.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, World Trade Organization, Trade Wars, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

7. Does the new fiscal consensus in advanced economies travel to emerging markets?

Author:: Olivier Blanchard, Josh Felman, and Arvind Subramanian
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Anew consensus on fiscal policy has emerged in advanced economies, that stimulus is both needed and feasible. At first blush, the scope for stimulus seems even greater in emerging markets, since their primary deficits are smaller and interest-growth differentials more favorable, suggesting that they can sustain much higher levels of debt. But more careful analysis suggests that this is not the case. The authors point out that what matters for debt sustainability are not current conditions but rather the range of possible future outcomes. And prospects for interest rates and growth are more uncertain in emerging markets, while primary balances are more difficult to adjust. As a result, debt limits are in fact tighter than advanced economies. Taking India as a case study, the authors argue that what is needed in the current situation is responsible, slow fiscal adjustment. More generally, one should be careful about importing wholesale the new fiscal consensus into emerging markets.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Consensus
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8. Improving China's participation in resolving developing-country debt problems

Author:: Martin Chorzempa and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The COVID-19 shock has exacerbated the struggles of many emerging-market and developing economies (EMDEs) to repay their external debt. One of the most urgent challenges relates to debt owed to China, whose lending spree under its Belt and Road Initiative and other programs has played an outsized role in what amounts to a crisis for many countries. The scope of the problem is striking. China is owed more than $100 billion, or 57 percent of all debt owed to official creditors by the countries that need help the most. China is not a member of the Paris Club of official creditors, which coordinates, within a multilateral framework, the resolution of general sovereign illiquidity or unsustainable external debt of EMDEs. There is an urgent need to put in place more effective, long-term solutions to help durably lower the risks of prolonged debt difficulties in EMDEs. These problems could be partly addressed by creating creditor committees to coordinate debt relief with China. The Group of Twenty (G20) has taken some steps to include creditor committees in the context of the Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), but only for low-income countries that qualify for the DSSI and only for official creditors. To better address debt distress, it needs to extend the approach, especially to middle-income debtor countries.
Topic:: Debt, Development, Emerging Markets, and G20
Political Geography:: China and Asia

9. Employment effects of R&D and innovation: Evidence from small and medium-sized firms in emerging markets

Author:: Rajeev K. Goel and Michael Nelson
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper studies the impact of research and development (R&D) and innovation on employment growth, focusing on small and medium-sized firms. Employment effects of R&D and innovation are unclear a priori as process innovation may be labor-saving or labor might have complementarities with other inputs. Employing firm-level data from 125 nations, results show that both R&D and innovation increased employment growth, suggesting that innovation was either capital-saving or labor had strong complementarities with other inputs. Upon splitting the sample into growing and contracting firms showed that contracting firms benefit from innovation but not from R&D. In other findings, sole proprietorships, larger firms, firms with relatively more experienced managers, firms with females as top managers, and firms facing the threat of informal competition had lower employment growth, while foreign-owned and government-owned enterprises have positive influences on employment growth. Finally, employment growth in shrinking firms was boosted in nations with greater economic freedom, but this growth is undermined by informal sector competition.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, Research, Innovation, and Research and Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10. Explaining Turkey’s Current Economic Crisis

Author:: Erinc Yeldan
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Turkey entered a new phase of recession-cum-real economy crisis starting in the last quarter of 2018. In contrast to the previous crisis episodes of 1994, 2001 or 2009, when the economy had abruptly shrunk with a spectacular collapse of asset values and a severe contraction of output, the 2018- crisis is characterized by a prolonged recession with persistent low (negative) rates of growth, dwindling investment performance, debt repayment problems, secularly rising open unemployment, a spiraling currency depreciation and high inflation. Popular explanations from the mainstream tradition attribute this dismal performance to a lack of “structural reforms” and/or exogenous factors. Per contra, our analysis shows that the underlying sources of the crisis are to be found not in the conjunctural cycles of reform fatigue, but rather in the post-2001 neoliberal speculative-led growth model with excessive reliance on hot money flows and foreign debt accumulation. We argue that following the post-2001 orthodox reforms, a foreign-capital-inflow-dependent, debt-led, and construction-centered economic growth model dominated the economy and caused a long buildup of imbalances and increased fragilities.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Financialisation, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

11. Three Ways to Explore the BRICS (Possible) Impact on the Future Global Order

Author:: Francesco Petrone
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: In a moment of great global uncertainty, the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are increasing their standing worldwide. Despite several areas that still undermine their credibility on the world stage and which make them appear to seem irrelevant as a group in the view of some scholars, we try to analyze and evaluate if they are really accountable as a group and what impact they could have on global governance and, in general, on the global order. We depart from previous research accomplishments and, following certain classical theories of International Relations such as those of Critical and Dependence, we consider three aspects of the BRICS growth that could influence the current international framework: 1) the emergence of institutions outside the Bretton Woods system; 2) an interest in improving their “soft power” (for example, climate change may play a decisive role here); 3) the growth of their presence in different parts of the world which have so far experienced a subordinated or marginal role. The paper considers both the limitations of and the potential for BRICS countries in the reshaping of the international framework. Moreover, we provide some interpretations to the current situation, especially in light of the prospective impact that COVID-19 may have on these three fields.
Topic:: Climate Change, Emerging Markets, Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, India, Asia, Brazil, South America, and South African

12. Asia Beyond China: Developing a European Indo-Pacific Strategy for a Changing Global Order

Author:: Luke Patey
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Much of Europe’s attention to Asia is currently being captured by China. However, if the European Union and its member states are serious about maintaining a rules-based global order and advancing multilateralism and connectivity, it should increase its work in building partnerships across Asia, particularly in the Indo-Pacific super-region. To save multilateralism, go to the Indo-Pacific. RECOMMENDATIONS: ■ Multilateralism first. Unpack and differentiate where the United States and China support the rules-based order and where not, but also look to new trade deals and security pacts with India and Southeast Asia partners. ■ Targeted connectivity. The EU should continue to offer support to existing regional infrastructure and connectivity initiatives. ■ Work in small groups. EU unanimity on China and Indo-Pacific policy is ideal, but not always necessary to get things done. ■ Asia specialists wanted. Invest in and develop career paths for Asia specialists in foreign and defence ministries and intelligence services.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Emerging Markets, International Organization, Science and Technology, Power Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

13. Sovereign debt restructuring: The centrality of the IMF's role

Author:: Sean Hagan
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Over the past 40 years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played a central role in the sovereign debt restructuring process. If the COVID-19 pandemic leads to a significant wave of sovereign debt distress, this role will be closely scrutinized. The paper analyzes how IMF policies have evolved to shape the incentives of sovereigns and their creditors at each stage of the sovereign debt restructuring process. It also identifies a number of issues that the IMF will likely have to address as a result of the pandemic, including (1) assessment of debt sustainability in a macroeconomic environment of considerable uncertainty, (2) treatment of official bilateral creditors, and (3) potential benefits—and challenges—of introducing additional incentives to maximize creditor participation in any debt restructuring.
Topic:: Debt, Emerging Markets, Government, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14. A possible IMF Pandemic Support Facility for emerging-market countries

Author:: Matthew Fisher and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adapts its strategy to meet the challenges of the COVID-19 crisis, it should develop a new temporary lending instrument to assist emerging-market countries facing pandemic-related fiscal and balance of payments difficulties. A dedicated IMF Pandemic Support Facility would help meet the exceptional financing needs of emerging-market countries at a time of high uncertainty while providing more lenient repayment periods and also allow the Fund to be more flexible in its operations with minimum disruptions to its existing facilities.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15. Sovereign debt relief in the global pandemic: Lessons from the 1980s

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic and an unprecedented global recession have triggered fears of a debt crisis requiring massive intervention by international financial institutions as well as debt restructuring by private and official creditors. Truman draws two lessons for the current crisis, based on his ring-side experience during the debt crises of the 1980s. First, the initiation of debt relief will require a broad consensus among four groups: the borrowing countries, their foreign creditors, the authorities of the countries in which those creditors are located, and international institutions. Reaching consensus takes time. Second, implementation of the consensus framework will be case by case, because of differences in the political and economic circumstances of each country, which will militate against simple replication for different countries and against implementation all at the same time. Any framework will not be self-implementing. While the call for rapid action is understandable, applying a one-size-fits-all approach will not be possible.
Topic:: Debt, Emerging Markets, History, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, World Bank, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16. Making Basel III Work for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Author:: Thorsten Beck and Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: A sound financial regulatory framework is critical for minimizing the risk imposed by financial system fragility. In the world’s emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), such regulation is also essential to support economic development and poverty reduction. Meanwhile, it is increasingly recognized that global financial stability is a global public good: recent decades have seen the development of new international financial regulatory standards, to serve as benchmarks for gauging regulation across countries, facilitate cooperation among financial supervisors from different countries, and create a level playing field for financial institutions wherever they operate. For the worldwide banking industry, the international regulatory standards promulgated by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) stand out for their wide-ranging scope and detail. Even though the latest Basel recommendations, adopted in late 2017 and known as Basel III, are, like their predecessors, calibrated primarily for advanced countries, many EMDEs are in the process of adopting and adapting them, and many others are considering it. They do so because they see it as in their long-term interest, but at the same time the new standards pose for them new risks and challenges. This report assesses the implications of Basel III for EMDEs and provides recommendations for both international and local policymakers to make Basel III work for these economies.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Markets
Political Geography:: Global Focus

17. How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets

Author:: Nathan Converse, Eduardo Levy Yeyati, and Tomas Williams
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Since the early 2000s exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown to become an important in- vestment vehicle worldwide. In this paper, we study how their growth affects the sensitivity of international capital flows to the global financial cycle. We combine comprehensive fund- level data on investor flows with a novel identification strategy that controls for unobservable time-varying economic conditions at the investment destination. For dedicated emerging mar- ket funds, we find that the sensitivity of investor flows to global financial conditions for equity (bond) ETFs is 2.5 (2.25) times higher than for equity (bond) mutual funds. In turn, we show that in countries where ETFs hold a larger share of financial assets, total cross-border equity flows and prices are significantly more sensitive to global financial conditions. We conclude that the growing role of ETFs as a channel for international capital flows amplifies the global financial cycle in emerging markets.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Capital Flows, and Mutual Funds
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Global Markets

18. Indonesian Political Economy: A Historical Analysis

Author:: Tommaso Rossotti
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Indonesia is one of the largest countries in the world in demographic, geographical and economic terms. Rich in natural resources, it is a member of the G20 and one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. From its independence in 1949, Indonesia lived dramatic changes in its political and economic system, moving from being an authoritarian state with a quasi-planned economy to being a (albeit flawed) democracy with a free market system. This paper is aimed to analyse briefly the most important phases of the post-colonial development path of the country, trying to highlight the events which mainly changed Indonesian economy and from this understand which are its sources of strength and weakness. The paper is therefore divided into three main parts. The first covers the most salient events that occurred in the country from its independence till mid-1990s, with a particular emphasis on Suharto’s “New Order” regime. The second part mainly focuses on the Asian Financial Crisis, explaining its causes and its political and economic effects on Indonesia. Finally, the last part deals with Indonesia in XXI century, focusing on the similarities and differences with the previous period and on the effects of the Global Financial Crisis on Indonesia.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Political Economy, Natural Resources, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Asia

19. China's Engagement in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Xinjiang: Will China's Root Cause Model provide regional stability and security?

Author:: Lars Erslev Andersen and Yang Jiang
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: In the latest policy report in DIIS’s Defence and Security Studies series, Lars Erslev Andersen and Yang Jiang discuss the potential of China’s approach to stabilising security conditions in Pakistan and Afghanistan through development. The report explores China’s westward policy by analysing the opportunities and obstacles related to its flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in South Asia, in particular the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). One aspect of the philosophy behind the CPEC is that lifting people out of poverty by providing them with better opportunities for jobs and incomes and hence improved living conditions will reduce the attractions of violent extremism and the inclination to indulge in it, thereby enhancing stability. This so-called Root Cause model draws on China’s experience of successfully lifting more than 600 million of its own citizens out of poverty due to the reform policy that has changed China rapidly over the past forty years, especially in the big cities in eastern China. However, the model has had mixed results in western China, especially in Xinjiang province. As this issue can shed light on the kinds of problems that China will face in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the report explores the situation in Xinjiang by investigating how it is conducting its policy there. The report outlines this development, which brings the Root Cause model into question to some extent, thus identifying some of the challenges that China will face in trying to stabilise conflict-torn parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan ‘the Chinese way’. Following these observations, the report takes a closer look at China’s economic diplomacy in Afghanistan. The last section discusses China’s increasing role in mediating between Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Taliban. Whether the Chinese approach to the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan proves to be a sustainable way of providing stability and achieving results is the question addressed in the report’s conclusion.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Emerging Markets, Migration, Oil, Power Politics, Non State Actors, Gas, Fragile States, Economy, Conflict, Investment, Peace, and Land Rights
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

20. India's Energy Needs And The Arab/Persian Gulf

Author:: Jean-Francois Seznec and Ramesh Pallakonda
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: India’s economy is increasing at the fastest rate in the world, now making it the globe’s third largest user of crude oil. While India is benefitting from the low oil prices seen since mid-2014, it has precious few oil and gas resources of its own and will remain highly dependent on imports. On the other hand India is now a large exporter of products like gasoline and diesel fuels because it has built a very large refining capacity, which ultimately renders India’s need for crude oil more pressing.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, and Oil
Political Geography:: India

21. Bond Yield Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia

Author:: Ansgar Belke, Irina Dubova, and Ulrich Volz
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper explores the extent to which changes to long-term interest rates in major advanced economies have influenced long-term government bond yields in Emerging Asia. To gauge long-term interest spillover effects, the paper uses VAR variance decompositions with high frequency data. Our results reveal that sovereign bond yields in Emerging Asia responded significantly to changes to US and Eurozone bond yields, although the magnitudes were heterogeneous across countries. The size of spillovers varied over time. The pattern of these variations can partially be explained by the implementation of different unconventional monetary policy measures in advanced countries.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, and Bonds
Political Geography:: Asia

22. Impact Investing: Who are we serving? A Case of Mismatch between Supply and Demand

Author:: Mara Bolis, Isabelle Irani, Robert Nash, Erinch Sahan, and Chris West
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Oxfam has several programmes that focus on poverty-reducing enterprises which engage marginalized populations through investment and investment-like approaches. These programmes recognize the need to structure finance differently so that it realizes the full potential of those enterprises to make a sustainable contribution to poverty reduction. The founders of Sumerian Partners have long histories of supporting start-up and growing businesses in both developed countries and emerging economies. This includes experience as entrepreneurs, as well as acting as asset managers and deploying philanthropic capital. This paper from Oxfam and Sumerian Partners questions some of the assumptions around impact investment and highlights the experience of enterprises contributing to poverty reduction so that they might be better served by the field. It argues that the sector risks being discredited due to rising, unrealistic expectations about financial returns.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Poverty, Investment, and Marginalization
Political Geography:: Global Markets

23. TPP, IPR Protection, and Their Implications for Emerging Asian Economies

Author:: Fukunari Kimura, Lurong Chen, Maura Ada Iliuteanu, Shimpei Yamamoto, and Masahito Ambashi
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Intellectual property rights (IPR) protection is essential for economic growth, innovation, and competitiveness. As the global economy is increasingly organised within global value chains, disciplining and enforcing IPR in a coherent manner internationally has become a critical issue in the 21st century trade system. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement flags America's achievement in setting new standards on international IPR enforcement under a plurilateral framework that involves countries from Asia-Pacific. Yet such standards run the risk of becoming the new norm at the international level. Reaching agreement on the text of the TPP signals emerging Asian economies' heightened commitment to IPR enforcement. Some factors that policymakers may want to consider include the following: Efficient IPR protection at the domestic level is integral to efforts that facilitate technology adoption and stimulate incremental innovations. It is crucial to increase public awareness of intellectual property (IP) in general and its associated rights in particular. IP laws and regulations must at least meet the requirements of the Agreement on Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) and always aim for higher-level standards. IPR disciplines must be binding and practically enforceable. Asian countries should actively participate in global IPR rule-making. The abundance and quality of human capital will affect not only the level of invention and other innovative activities but also the efficiency of IPR enforcemen
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and Global Focus

24. Jurisdiction on the Internet: From Legal Arms Race to Transnational Cooperation

Author:: Bertrand de la Chapelle and Paul Fehlinger
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The past 20 years have witnessed a profound change in the types of non-resident investors who provide funding to emerging market economies (EMEs) and the financial instruments through which emerging market (EM) corporations borrow from abroad. Until the beginning of the new millennium, private capital flows to EMEs were mainly intermediated by large global banks, and EMEs were subjected to massive volatility in their external payments balances, exchange rates and domestic financial systems. But since the early 2000s the role of bank-intermediated credit has declined, as the base of investors willing to take on exposure to EM corporate debt has become much larger and more diverse. These structural changes have encouraged a vast growth in flows of funds, not only from the mature economies to EMEs as a group, but also among EMEs themselves.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

25. Is Indonesia the Next China?

Author:: Wendy Dobson
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: This paper reviews Indonesia’s economic prospects and what these imply for a closer relationship with Canada. By posing the question “Is Indonesia the next China?,” the author suggests that Indonesia has the considerable economic potential envisaged by foreign investors, but conveys uncertainty as to whether Southeast Asia’s most populous country can make the changes necessary to realize that potential. A review of the economic record and comparison of China’s and Indonesia’s economic structures, endowments and institutions show major differences between the two countries. The paper further questions what it will take to realize Indonesia’s potential, finding the answers to be: human capital development; increased participation in the region’s global value chains; meeting the growing middle-class demand for modern services; raising productivity in agriculture and fishing; and increasing use of the Internet. Failure to make these changes will increase the chances of Indonesia’s growth in per capita incomes slowing and falling into the middle-income trap. Canada’s role will be to monitor closely how Indonesia tackles its five priorities at the same time as it responds to the opportunities to exploit Indonesia’s abundant natural resources, urbanization and its expanding consumer demand for modern services and educational opportunities.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, and Regulation
Political Geography:: China and Indonesia

26. World on the Move: The Changing Global Income Distribution and Its Implications for Consumption Patterns and Public Policies

Author:: Tomas Hellebrandt and Paolo Mauro
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In the next two decades, hundreds of millions of people in emerging economies are projected to reach income levels at which they will be able to afford cars and air travel. As purchasing power increases worldwide, people will spend proportionately less on food and beverages and more on transportation. Higher spending on transportation, especially in China, India, and Sub-Saharan Africa, will increase pressures on the infrastructure in these economies and aggravate global climate change. Governments will need to respond to these challenges in a fiscally sustainable and environmentally responsible way.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Economies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

27. Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?

Author:: Olivier Blanchard, Gustavo Adler, and Irineu de Carvalho Filho
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Many emerging-market economies have relied on foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in response to gross capital inflows. The authors study whether FXI has been an effective tool to dampen the effects of these inflows on the exchange rate. To deal with endogeneity issues, they look at the response of different countries to plausibly exogenous gross inflows and explore the cross-country variation of FXI and exchange rate responses. Consistent with the portfolio balance channel, they find that larger FXI leads to less exchange rate appreciation in response to gross inflows.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

28. Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Author:: Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, and Marcos Chamon
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging-market policymakers, however, believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, the authors extend the set of assets included in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and nonbonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on nonbonds, reducing the cost of financial intermediation, potentially offsetting the contractionary impact of appreciation. The authors explore the implications theoretically and empirically and find support for the key predictions in the data.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

29. The Future of Worldwide Income Distribution

Author:: Tomas Hellebrandt and Paolo Mauro
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Over the next two decades the structure of world population and income will undergo profound changes. Global income inequality is projected to decline further in 2035, largely owing to rapid economic growth in the emerging-market economies. The potential pool of consumers worldwide will expand significantly, with the largest net gains in the developing and emerging-market economies. The number of people earning between US$1,144 and US$3,252 per year in 2013 prices in purchasing power parity terms will increase by around 500 million, with the largest gains in Sub-Saharan Africa and India; those earning between US$3,252 and US$8,874 per year in 2013 prices will increase by almost 1 billion, with the largest gains in India and Sub-Saharan Africa; and those earning more than US$8,874 per year will increase by 1.2 billion, with the largest gains in China and the advanced economies.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia

30. The Financial Sector and Growth in Emerging Asian Economies

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The financial sectors in Asian emerging-market economies are now relatively unlikely to provoke new financial crises, either because of reforms after the East Asian financial crisis in the later 1990s or because of the dominance of state-owned banks not subject to bank runs. Financial intermediation is surprisingly high and is consistent with higher rates of saving and investment and hence growth in the main economies of the region (as compared to, say, counterparts in Latin America). Nonetheless, there are sharply diverging patterns (e.g., high foreign ownership of banks in Korea versus minimal presence in China) and differing national structures (bank dominated, portfolio oriented, and diversified) within Asia. Cline recommends establishing long-term plans to improve efficiency in state-owned banks or reduce their dominance and pursuing bank capitalization targets at least as ambitious as those of Basel III. Cline also calls for ensuring adequate regulation of growing nonbank intermediaries, reversing a recent trend toward national barriers to foreign banks in some economies, and improving the legal security of bank regulators.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: Asia

31. Corporate Debt in Emerging Economies: A Threat to Financial Stability?

Author:: Barry Eichengreen, Domenico Lombardi, Malcolm D. Knight, Yu Yongding, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Diane De Gramont, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Phillip R. Lane, Ugo Panizza, and Viral V. Acharya
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: During 1999-2007, the international balance sheets of emerging economies grew stronger through a combination of current account surpluses, a shift from debt funding to equity funding, and the stockpiling of liquid foreign reserves. This risk-mitigating strategy improved the international financial standing of many emerging economies and helped these economies withstand the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. However, a combination of domestic and external factors has led to a partial reversal of this strategy, with some emerging economies accumulating significant external debt since 2010. Previewed by the May 2013 “taper tantrum,” there has been considerable speculation that a tightening of dollar-funding conditions and a macroeconomic slowdown in emerging economies may result in financial instability in some emerging economies.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
Political Geography:: Global Focus

32. Next Steps for the G20: Turkey 2015

Author:: Paul Martin, Thomas A. Bernes, Olaf Weber, Hongying Wang, and Kevin Carmichael
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: On November 15-16, 2015, leaders of the world's major advanced and emerging economies will meet in Antalya, Turkey for the G20 summit. In this special report, CIGI experts present their perspectives and policy analysis on the key priorities facing the G20 at Antalya. The Right Honourable Paul Martin states that the multilateral institutions created to make globalization work should be a G20 priority. Thomas A. Bernes asks whether G20 leaders and the institutions that support them can articulate a “policy upgrade” that brings more credibility than last year’s Brisbane Action Plan. Olaf Weber argues that the next step for the G20 should be the development of policies and guidelines that help to manage climate change and financial risk in a prudential way. Hongying Wang examines China's rare opportunity as it assumes the presidency of the G20 to push for collective new thinking on how to establish a less fragmented and more coherent global framework for investment governance that balances the interests of different stakeholders. Finally, Kevin Carmichael suggests that the G20 should elevate gender balance to the top of its agenda.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Governance, G20, Financial Markets, and Turkey
Political Geography:: Global Focus

33. International Regulatory Cooperation on the Resolution of Financial Institutions: Where Does India Stand?

Author:: Renuka Sane
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: This paper provides a brief description of the principles of cross-border resolution that have emerged after the 2008 global financial crisis, and the progress that has been achieved. The paper then provides an overview of developments on resolution of financial firms in India. It finds that while there is cognizance of the need for international cooperation on resolution, the focus is on first developing institutional capacity on domestic resolution that can interact with the international community in the future. The policy choices of India may be reflective of the thinking in a large number of emerging markets, which considerably lag behind the more developed markets, partly due to lower interconnectedness and partly due to limited experience in domestic resolution.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: India

34. Capital Flows and Capital Account Management in Selected Asian Economies

Author:: Rajeswari Sengupta and Abhuit Sen Gupta
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Gross capital inflows and outflows to and from emerging market economies have witnessed a significant increase since the early 2000s. This rapid increase in the volume of flows, accompanied by sharp swings in volatility, has amplified the complexity of macroeconomic management in emerging economies. This paper focuses on capital flows in selected emerging Asian economies, analyzing surge and stop episodes as well as changes in the composition of flows across these episodes, then evaluating the policy measures undertaken by these economies in response to the surge and stop of capital flows. This kind of analysis is highly relevant, especially at a time when emerging economies around the world are facing the repercussions of a potential monetary policy normalization in the United States and continuing quantitative easing measures by the European Central Bank, either of which could once again heighten the volatility of cross-border capital flows, thereby posing renewed macroeconomic challenges for major EMEs.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Asia

35. Growth in an uncertain global environment: The outlook for Latin America

Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: The growth rates witnessed in markets across Latin America in the decade to 2010 pulled millions out of poverty, led to rapid growth of the middle class and helped to demonstrate the promise of emerging markets. Since then, however, growth has slowed dramatically across the region. 2015 will mark the fifth successive year of deceleration in Latin America, which has slowed more than any other emerging market region. With concerns over the ability of emerging markets to withstand a slowdown in China and monetary policy normalisation in the US growing, risks to the growth and financing outlook for Latin America persist. However, as economic recovery starts to gather pace in the region, opportunities for investment and growth will also re-emerge. This report provides a snapshot of the current political and economic landscape in the region, and in some of Latin America’s largest economies: Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. Each article analyses key concerns and presents our view of the outlook going forward, helping you to influence decision-making and economic outcomes for your business.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Latin America

36. After the freefall, what to expect from commodity prices

Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: After the plunge in commodity prices in 2015, the outlook for raw materials remains highly uncertain amid slowing economic growth in China and looming interest rate rises in the US. In China—which gobbles up nearly one-half of the world’s consumption of aluminium, copper and coal—demand for base materials risks moderating further as the economy moves away from an investment-driven growth model. This will continue to have knock-on effects on the performance of commodity-exporting economies, weighing down on global consumption of raw materials. However, supply responses are beginning to emerge from commodity producers worldwide. Coupled with less favourable weather prospects, this will lead to some market tightening next year, allowing for some price stabilisation after four years of decline. This report provides a snapshot of The Economist Intelligence Unit’s current commodity price indexes, exploring the changing prices for industrial raw materials and food, feedstuffs & beverages. Each article provides analysis and forecasts across a number of key commodities, helping you to assess the fast-changing environment of commodity markets and influence key decision-making processes.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China

37. Aid procurement and the development of local industry: A question for Africa

Author:: Christine Zhang and Jeffrey Gutman
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Economic development is often tied to the evolution of local industry. One way to assess a country’s emergence as a major player in the global economy is by examining the ability of its domestic firms to compete on the global market. Public procurement—the purchase of goods, works, and services by governments—represents a significant portion of this market, making up an estimated average of 15 to 30 percent of a country’s GDP. Procurement in the developing world is especially noteworthy, since large projects are often partially or wholly financed by external donors such as the World Bank and other international financial institutions (IFIs), which encourage developing country governments to internationally advertise the goods, works, or services they require and to select the most competitive bid they receive. Yet the role of IFI-funded procurement in the emergence of global markets, particularly for and among developing countries, is seldom a topic of empirical study, despite its linkages to global growth.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, World Bank, and Developing World
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. A Post-Sanctions Iran and the Eurasian Energy Architecture

Author:: Micha'el Tanchum
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: With the removal of international sanctions on Iran, different markets will have a great interest in importing Iranian gas. But which market will benefit the most? In A Post-Sanctions Iran and the Eurasian Energy Architecture, Micha'el Tanchum, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center and the Eurasian Energy Futures Initiative, argues that the lifting of the sanctions carries the potential to radically restructure the Eurasian energy architecture and, as a consequence, reshape Eurasian geopolitics. After Iran meets its domestic demand for natural gas, it will have the option to export gas to two of the following three markets: European Union/Turkey, India, or China. Iran will not have enough natural gas to supply all three of these major markets. The pattern of Iran's gas exports in the immediate post-sanctions period will shape the relationship between two competing orientations in the Eurasian energy architecture: a system of energy relationships reinforcing the EU's outreach to the Eastern Neighborhood alongside a system of energy relationships reinforcing China's OBOR integration project. A pivot to China will not be favorable to EU's and NATO's interests as it decreases Europe's energy security. By contrast, an expanded Southern Gas Corridor to Europe would promote the extension of Euro-Atlantic influence in Eurasia.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Iran and Eurasia

39. International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?

Author:: Shaghil Ahmed, Brahima Coulibaly, and Andrei Zlate
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis covers the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and six earlier episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in quite early and persisted throughout this episode. (3) Controlling for economic fundamentals, we also find that, during the taper tantrum, financial conditions deteriorated more in those EMEs that had earlier experienced larger private capital inflows and greater exchange rate appreciation. (4) For earlier episodes, we find little evidence of investor differentiation across EMEs being explained by differences in their relative vulnerabilities during EME crises of the 1990s and early 2000s. (5) That said, differentiation across EMEs based on fundamentals does not appear to be unique to the 2013 episode. Differences in economic fundamentals played a role in explaining the heterogeneous EME financial market responses during the global financial crisis of 2008, and the role of fundamentals appeared to progressively increase through the European crisis in 2011 and subsequently the 2013 taper tantrum.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, Exchange Rate Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

40. The Best of Rules and Discretion: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting in India

Author:: Pranjul Bhandari and Jeffrey Frankel
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: The recent revival of interest in nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has come in the context of large advanced economies. We argue that the case for NGDP targeting is even more appealing for mid-sized developing countries, because they tend to be more susceptible to supply shocks and terms of trade shocks. For India, in particular, one major exogenous supply shock is the monsoon rains. NGDP targeting splits the impact of supply shocks automatically between inflation and real GDP growth. In the case of inflation targeting (IT), by contrast, the full impact of an adverse supply shock or terms of trade shock is felt as a loss in real GDP alone. NGDP targeting arguably achieves the best of both worlds: it automatically accommodates supply shocks as most central banks with discretion would do anyway, while retaining the advantage of anchoring expectations as rules are designed to do. We outline a simple theoretical model and derive the conditions under which an NGDP targeting regime would dominate other regimes such as IT for achieving objectives of output and price stability. We go on to estimate for the case of India the main parameters needed to ascertain whether these conditions hold, most notably the slope of the aggregate supply curve. We find that under certain plausible conditions, nominal GDP targeting is indeed better placed than IT, especially in the face of the supply shocks that developing countries tend to experience.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, GDP, Inflation, and Central Bank
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

41. Balancing Without Containment: An American Strategy for Managing China

Author:: Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: China is poised to become a major strategic rival to the United States. Whether or not Beijing intends to challenge Washington's primacy, its economic boom and growing national ambitions make competition inevitable. And as China rises, American power will diminish in relative terms, threatening the foundations of the U.S.-backed global order that has engendered unprecedented prosperity worldwide. To avoid this costly outcome, Washington needs a novel strategy to balance China without containing it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Development, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, Washington, Beijing, and Asia

42. Quenching India's thirst for energy

Author:: Costanza Caputi
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: India's impressive economic growth and rapidly expanding population are fuelling the country's demand for energy, and increasingly, shaping India's external relations and foreign policy. In addition to altering regional dynamics in South Asia, this shift will have significant implications for global energy governance, as well as for climate change discussions.
Topic:: Demographics, Development, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: India

43. Addressing Currency Manipulation Through Trade Agreements

Author:: C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: A bipartisan majority in both Houses of Congress is insisting that the United States include a provision in future trade agreements that would bar currency manipulation. A letter from 60 senators to Secretary of the Treasury Jacob Lew and United States Trade Representative (USTR) Michael From an on September 23, 2013, called for "strong and enforceable foreign currency manipulation disciplines" in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) while 230 members of the House of Representatives told President Barack Obama on June 6, 2013, that "it is imperative that (the TPP) address currency manipulation.to create a level playing field for American businesses and prevent more US jobs from being shipped overseas." The trade promotion authority (TPA) legislation proposed by congressional trade leaders on January 9, 2014, establishes the avoidance of currency manipulation as a "principal US negotiating objective" in its future trade agreements.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States

44. Double Profit: Financing Consumers

Author:: Alana Tummino
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: Across Latin America, retailers, telecommunications companies and shopping malls are reaping the benefits of a growing middle class that is able to shop more and spend more. According to McKinsey Company, Latin America is one of the largest emerging markets in the world with a combined GDP of $3.2 trillion, boasting triple the GDP per capita of China and seven times that of India.
Topic:: Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: China, India, and Latin America

45. Boxing with Elephants: Can Canada Punch above Its Weight in Global Financial Governance?

Author:: James M. Boughton
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Canadians have long harboured a desire to "punch above their weight" in international diplomacy, an aspiration justified by Canada's position in the world both geographically and culturally. This paper examines one aspect of that effort: Canada's role in international financial governance, particularly within the International Monetary Fund. The key issue for the future is whether Canada will continue to have the capacity and the will to take leading positions and actions in the face of increasing competition from the rapidly growing emerging market countries.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States and Canada

46. The Defense Acquisition Trilemma: The Case of Brazil

Author:: Patrice Franko
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Brazil is a puzzling new player in the global system. Emerging as a complex international actor, it has come to be seen as a significant economic competitor and dynamic force in world politics. But transformational changes in the economic and political realms have not been accompanied by advances in military power. While Brazil has entered the world stage as an agile soft power exercising influence in setting global agendas and earning a seat at the economic table of policymakers, its military capacity lags. The national security strategy announced under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2008 intended to redress this power gap. President Dilma Rousseff 's 2011 White Paper—so detailed that it is called a "White Book"—provides the conceptual roadmap to achieve a new military balance. But military modernization is still a work in progress.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

47. Examining China's Assertiveness through the Eyes of Chinese IR Scholars

Author:: Kai He and Huiyun Feng
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: China's assertive diplomacy in recent years has ignited intense debates among International Relations (IR) scholars. Some argue that China's assertive behavior is rooted in its perception of increasing power and capabilities. Others suggest that it is U.S. policies that triggered China's assertive reactions. Relying on an original survey of China's IR scholars conducted in Beijing in 2013 and using structural equation modeling (SEM), we empirically examine Chinese IR scholars' attitude towards Chinese power versus the United States, their perceptions of U.S. policy in Asia, and their preference for an assertive Chinese foreign policy. We find that both the power perception and policy reaction arguments make sense in accounting for Chinese IR scholars' attitude regarding China's assertive diplomacy. However, our research suggests that a more pessimistic view on Chinese power is more likely to be associated with a preference for an assertive foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: China and East Asia

48. Sergio Cabral Filho, former Governor of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Author:: Sergio Cabral Filho
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: This World Leaders Forum program, titled "Rio de Janeiro: from Ostracism to Protagonism" features an address by Sergio Cabral Filho, former Governor of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Introduction and Moderated by Lee C. Bollinger, President, Columbia University in the City of New York.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, Political Economy, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: New York, Brazil, and Latin America

49. A New Type of Great Power Relationship between the United States and China: The Military Dimension

Author:: Geoffrey Till
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The relative rise of China is likely to lead a major shift in the world's strategic architecture, which the United States will need to accommodate. For the outcome to be generally beneficial, China needs to be dissuaded from hegemonic aspirations and retained as a cooperative partner in the world system. This will require a range of potentially conflicting thrusts in U.S. policy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and East Asia

50. China's Global Agricultural Strategy: An Open System to Safeguard the Country's Food Security

Author:: Zhang Hongzhou and Cheng Guoqiang
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: National food security will continue to be the top strategic issue confronting Chinese policymakers. In the next two decades of rapid income growth, China's total demand for agricultural products will increase in the face of diminishing water and land resources, and the task of feeding the 1.3 billion Chinese people will be even more challenging. The authors suggest that a global agricultural strategy is the strategic choice for China because it enables China to safeguard national food security and at the same time, tackle its rising domestic demand for agricultural resources in the face of environmental pressures.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Development, Emerging Markets, and Food
Political Geography:: East Asia

51. Mexico's Energy Reform: Mexico "Ready to Launch"

Author:: David L. Goldwyn, Neil R. Brown, and Megan Reilly Cayten
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Mexico is poised for an energy renaissance. It has ample reserves of oil and natural gas, experience in energy production, promising economic fundamentals, and industrial expertise. In recent decades, Mexico has suffered from declining oil production, insufficient gas supply, and high electricity prices.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Oil, and Reform
Political Geography:: Mexico

52. Impact Inventing: Strengthening the Ecosystem for Invention-Based Entrepreneurship in Emerging Markets

Author:: Alexander N. Pan
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Over the past decade, a growing segment of social entrepreneurs and small and growing businesses(SGBs) has emerged that seeks to utilize the power of invention to create products and companies that improve the lives of people living in poverty around the world. We call this class of entrepreneur-looking to develop and disseminate tangible products that will be manufactured and sold at high volumes via market mechanisms-an invention-based entrepreneur.1 ANDE believes that invention-based entrepreneurs are supported or impeded by a number of environmental factors, or the entrepreneurial ecosystem in which they work. While ANDE and our members have made significant progress toward strengthening these entrepreneurial ecosystems in emerging markets, invention-based entrepreneurs have a unique set of needs that differentiates them from typical SGBs. Consequently, we believe we can improve the ecosystem to support the growth of this industry, and thereby unleash the full potential impact of these invention-based entrepreneurs.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States and South Africa

53. Understanding Mandis: Market Towns and the Dynamics of India's Rural and Urban Transformations

Author:: Devesh Kapur and Mekhala Krishnamurthy
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:: Mandis or physical, primary agricultural markets are old and ubiquitous institutions of economic life in many parts of India. Wherever they form, they are usually dense sites of economic, social and political activity, connecting and shaping the relations between town and countryside, and between local markets for commodities and larger, national and global circuits of capital and commerce. According to available estimates, there are over 7500 regulated agricultural markets in India today, operating under different state level acts covering a huge variety of notified agricultural produce.
Topic:: Agriculture, Emerging Markets, and Food
Political Geography:: India and Asia

54. Understanding Differences in Growth Performance in Latin America and Developing Countries between the Asian and Global Financial Crises

Author:: Roberto Alvarez and José De Gregorio
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Latin American performance during the global financial crisis was unprecedented. Many developing and emerging countries successfully weathered the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Was it good luck? Was it good policies? In this paper we compare growth during the Asian and global financial crises and find that a looser monetary policy played an important role in mitigating crisis. We also find that higher private credit, more financial openness, less trade openness, and greater exchange rate intervention worsened economic performance. Our analysis of Latin American countries confirms that effective macroeconomic management was key to good economic performance. Finally, we present evidence from a sample of 31 emerging markets that high terms of trade had a positive impact on resilience.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Asia and Latin America

55. America's Asia Pivot - A Return to Realism?

Author:: Sean Kay
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:: This working paper demonstrates that the announced "pivot" to Asia by the United States represents a major break with twenty years of liberal and neoconservative priorities in American foreign policy. The pivot to Asia reflects a return to realist thinking in terms of America's international goals. The paper also shows that this shift is difficult to achieve due to existing priorities in other regions and domestic policy dynamics. The paper begins with a brief explanation of the traditions of idealism and realism in American foreign policy. The analysis then explains the various dynamics necessary to implement the "pivot" to Asia and shows the major constraints on implementing this new approach. The conclusion shows that emerging priorities suggest both a need and capacity for a realist alignment of American foreign policy. However, institutionalized constraints risk undermining America's ability to adjust to a new set of twenty-first century global economic and security interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: United States, China, and East Asia

56. Why Brazil has not criticised Russia over Crimea

Author:: Oliver Stuenkel
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Emerging powers frequently stress the importance of sovereignty and the inviolability of international law. As a consequence, many Western observers expected that emerging powers such as Brazil would be quick to condemn Russia's annexation of Crimea. Yet Brazil remained neutral and abstained from the UN General Assembly resolution that criticised Russia. Together with the other BRICS countries, it opposed suggestions to exclude Russia from the G-20, thus markedly reducing the effectiveness of Western attempts to isolate President Putin. Brazil's unwillingness to criticise Russia may have less to do with its opinion on Russia's annexation of Crimea per se and more to do with Brasília's scepticism of Western attempts to turn Russia into an international pariah. From Brasilia's perspective, pushing countries against the wall is rarely the most constructive approach. In addition, many in Brazil are wary of a global order that privileges the U.S. and allows it to flout many norms that apply to everyone else, arguing that these double standards are far more damaging to international order than any Russian policy. Finally, Russia annexed Crimea at a time when anti-Americanism around the world still runs high as a consequence of the NSA spying scandals, making alignment with U.S. positions politically costly at home.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, Brazil, and South America

57. U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies

Author:: David Bowman, Juan M. Londono, and Horacio Sapriza
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: We investigate the effects of U.S. unconventional monetary policies on sovereign yields, foreign exchange rates, and stock prices in emerging market economies (EMEs), and we analyze how these effects depend on country-specifc characteristics. We find that, although EME asset prices, mainly those of sovereign bonds, responded strongly to unconventional monetary policy announcements, these responses were not outsized with respect to a model that takes into account each country's time-varying vulnerability to U.S. interest rates affected by monetary policy shocks.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, Markets, Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, Interest Rates, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

58. Estimating U.S. Cross-Border Securities Positions: New Data and New Methods

Author:: Carol C. Bertaut
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The role of capital flows in the buildup to the global financial crisis and the potential vulnerabilities posed by capital flows to emerging market economies highlight the importance of reliable and timely measures of cross-border investment activity to better monitor developments as they unfold. We present new monthly estimates of U.S. cross-border securities investment, combining information from detailed annual Treasury International Capital (TIC) surveys with new information from the TIC form SLT. We also show how changes in the new monthly data can be decomposed into flows, estimated valuation changes, and a residual "gap". These decompositions can provide a richer and timelier view of developments in both foreign portfolio investment in the U.S. and U.S. portfolio investment abroad than available from transactions data or survey data alone. Data on cross-border holdings through December 2013, by country, are available for download; we also provide advice on how to construct estimates going forward. These data can be combined with the existing Bertaut-Tryon monthly estimates of securities holdings (now updated through 2011) to generate consistent monthly time series of positions.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Markets, Global Financial Crisis, Capital Flows, and Investment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

59. Outward FDI from Israel's Largest MNEs Continues to Rise in 2011

Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Recanati Business School of Tel Aviv University, The Manufacturers Association of Israel, and the Vale Columbia Center on Sustainable International Investment (VCC), a joint center of the Columbia Law School and the Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York, are releasing the results of their fifth annual survey of Israeli multinational enterprises (MNEs) today. The survey is part of the Emerging Market Global Players (EMGP) project, a long-term study of the rapid global expansion of MNEs from emerging markets. The results released today focus on data for the year 2011.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: New York and Middle East

60. Achieving Development Success: Strategies and Lessons from the Developing World

Author:: Augustin K. Fosu
Publication Date:: 03-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: What can the less well-off developing countries learn from the “successes” of other developing countries? This Policy Brief highlights successful development strategies and lessons from in-depth case studies of select countries from the developing world. The coverage includes East Asia and the Pacific, the emerging Asian giants, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa, along with respective regional syntheses. Although countries' experiences are not necessarily replicable, the recurrent themes across countries and regions provide the appropriate connectedness for a comprehensive global perspective on development strategies and lessons.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Latin America

61. Japan's Global Health Policy

Author:: Katherine E. Bliss, Haruko Sugiyama, Ayaka Yamaguchi, and Hiromi Murakami
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Recent years have seen a considerable shift in the sources of financial assistance for global health activities. With the private sector as well as emerging economies joining the more developed nations as major players, the balance of power is changing, leading to a momentous shift in perceptions of “global health.” Japan has yet to adopt a comprehensive approach that acknowledges the new global health reality. With political changes, natural disasters, and a sluggish economy dominating the policy scene in recent years, there has been little appetite among decision-makers to develop—in a practical sense—more effective ways to strategically support global health activities in facilitating a greater impact of Japan's foreign policy. Japan must develop a comprehensive perspective of global health in order to maximize aid effectiveness and to promote transparency in order to boost the overall effectiveness of the country's initiatives and benefit the people of Japan, as well.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Health, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: Japan and Israel

62. The Changing Landscape of Global Health Diplomacy

Author:: Katherine Bliss (ed) and Victor D. Cha
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In the fall of 2012 the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Global Health Policy Center organized a working group to analyze progress on diplomatic outreach to advance global health during the first four years of the Barack Obama administration. Over three sessions the working group members, who included health policy researchers, former diplomats, and an ex- officio group of current government officials, met to discuss emerging trends related to global health diplomacy and to develop a set of recommendations to enhance U.S. diplomatic outreach on global health for the next four years. Much of the working group's effort focused on the important role played by the secretary of state in raising the visibility of global health challenges on the world stage and on the Department of State's potential to promote greater coherence and integration of U.S. overseas health programs in the next presidential term.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Health, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: United States

63. Cost allocation in investment arbitration: Back toward diversification

Author:: Baiju S. Vasani and Anastasiya Ugale
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In 2006, the Thunderbird tribunal, operating under the UNCITRAL Arbitration Rules, called for the harmonization of cost-allocation approaches in commercial and investment arbitration. Subsequent tribunals appear to be heeding Thunderbird's call paving a trend in favor of the so-called “costs follow the event” (CFtE) approach and its variations. Generally, this approach prescribes the shifting of arbitral costs and reasonable legal fees to the unsuccessful party (or based on parties' relative success) and has historically been prevalent in commercial arbitration. By contrast, the more traditional approach in investment arbitration has been to share the costs of arbitration equally, save for special circumstances, with each party covering its own legal fees (traditional approach). In the wake of what appears to be an emerging trend in favor of a default CFtE custom, it is time to revisit the idea of whet her a single harmonized approach to cost allocation is really appropriate. We suggest that it most likely is not.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment

64. The EU and Brazil: Partnering in an uncertain world?

Author:: Giovanni Grevi
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The international system is changing fast and both the European Union and Brazil will need to adapt. This paper argues that such a process of adjustment may bring the two closer together, even if their starting points differ considerably. Europe looks at the ongoing redistribution of power as a challenge, Brazil as an opportunity. Europe is coping with the detrimental impact of the economic crisis on its international profile; Brazil is enhancing its influence in its region and beyond. Their normative outlook is broadly compatible; their political priorities and behaviour in multilateral frameworks often differ, from trade to development and security issues. Despite the crisis, however, there are signals of renewed engagement by the EU on the international stage, with a focus on its troubled neighbourhood and partnerships with the US and large emerging actors such as Brazil. The latter is charting an original course in international affairs as a rising democratic power from the traditional South with no geopolitical opponents and a commitment to multilateralism. In testing the limits of its international influence, Brazil will need dependable partners and variable coalitions that go well beyond the BRICS format, which is not necessarily sustainable. This contribution suggests that the strategic partnership between the EU and Brazil may grow stronger not only as a platform to deepen economic ties and sustain growth, but also as a tool to foster cooperation in political and security affairs including crisis management, preventive diplomacy and human rights.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe and Latin America

65. LATIN AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEMS IN A HISTORICAL AND COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

Author:: Jorge Balán
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of International Education
Abstract:: Higher education has undergone impressive growth and change over the last few decades in Latin America.This book selectively reviews some dimensions of this transformation, discussing policies, institutions, and programs, as well as their outcomes in terms of access, workforce training, and research. Individual chapters, commissioned from specialists from Latin America and the United States, stand as original, independent contributions focusing on key issues in higher education: changes in institutional autonomy and system governance, the contributions of higher education to advanced workforce development, policy responses to the continuing challenges of access and equity, government-sponsored study-abroad scholarships programs in several countries, trends in academic mobility and its outcomes for brain drain and gain, the changing landscape of U.S. universities' and corporations' investment in the region, and recent development of U.S. government exchange programs with Latin America.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:: United States and Latin America

66. How much did China's WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?

Author:: Mikkel Barslund, Thomas Barnebeck Andersen, Casper Worm Hansen, Thomas Harr, and Peter Sandholt Jensen
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This Working Document provides an estimate of China's impact on the growth rate of resource-rich countries since its WTO accession in December 2001. The authors' empirical approach follows the logic of the differences-in-differences estimator. In addition to temporal variation arising from the WTO accession, which they argue was exogenous to other countries' growth trajectories, the authors exploit spatial variation arising from differences in natural resource wealth. In this way they can compare changes in economic growth in the pre- and post-accession periods between countries that benefited from the surge in demand for industrial commodities brought about by China's WTO accession and countries that were less able to do so. They find that that roughly one-tenth of the average annual post-accession growth in resource-rich countries was due to China's increased appetite for commodities. The authors use this finding to inform the debate about what will happen to economic growth in resource-rich countries as China rebalances and its demand for commodities weakens.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China

67. Global commons: between cooperation and competition

Author:: Gerald Stang
Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Rapid economic development and increasing international trade are leading to a more crowded international stage and raising new challenges in the 'global commons' – those domains that are not under the control or jurisdiction of any state but are open for use by countries, companies and individuals from around the world. Their management involves increasingly complex processes to accommodate and integrate the interests and responsibilities of states, international organisations and a host of non-state actors.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe

68. Sailing Against the Current â€“ China-U.S. Relations in the Next Stage

Author:: Yu Bianjiang
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:: In recent years, “rebalancing” has been a buzzword in the U.S.'s Asia-Pacific policy and naturally also in U.S.-China relations. Some believe this rebalancing has been quite successful and refer to this as the hallmark of President Barack Obama's first-term foreign policy. At the same time, others, both within and outside of America, have expressed different opinions. The most critical point is that while the U.S. administration has argued that rebalancing is an integrated strategy with military, diplomatic, and economic initiatives intended to strengthen U.S. involvement in the Asia-Pacific area, in practice, rebalancing has been depicted and implemented in more military terms, with the United States shifting its troops and resources from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the Asia- Pacific region. “The military soundtrack has the volume turned up too loud.”.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:: United States, China, Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

69. China: Superpower or Superbust?

Author:: Ian Bremmer
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The National Interest
Abstract:: AS IF a global financial-market meltdown, the deepest U.S. recession in seventy years, an existential crisis in the euro zone and upheaval in the Middle East hadn't already created enough trouble for one decade, now the unrest and anxiety have extended to some of the world's most attractive emerging markets. Just in the past few months, we've seen a rough ride for India's currency, furious nationwide protests in Turkey and Brazil, antigovernment demonstrations in Russia, strikes and violence in South Africa, and an ominous economic slowdown in all these countries.
Topic:: Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Middle East, South Africa, and Brazil

70. The Role of Europe in Enhancing Cooperative Security in Asia and the Pacific: A View from Japan

Author:: Takako Ueta
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Asia is a prominent export market for Europe while in the East and South China Seas, tensions continue. Europe has searched for its political role in Asia. This policy brief presents an analysis and argues the role of Europe in enhancing cooperative security in Asia and the Pacific, which would promote stability and peace there.
Topic:: Security, Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, Israel, and Asia

71. Hooray for Global Justice? Emerging Democracies in a Multipolar World

Author:: Julian Culp and Johannes Plagemann
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Rising powers are fundamentally shifting the relations of power in the global economic and political landscape. International political theory, however, has so far failed to evaluate this nascent multipolarity. This article fills this lacuna by synthesizing empirical and normative modes of inquiry. It examines the transformation of sovereignty exercised by emerging democracies and shows that – in stark contrast to emerging democracies' foreign policy rhetoric – the "softening" of sovereignty has become the norm. The present paper assesses this softening of sovereignty on the basis of a "democratic-internationalist" conception of global justice. This conception holds that global justice demands the establishment of reasonably democratic transnational relations that enable people themselves to determine what else justice requires. Because we find that the exercise of soft sovereignty by emerging democracies contributes to the realization of reasonably democratic transnational relations, we conclude that this nascent multipolarity ought to be welcomed from the democratic-internationalist view of global justice.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Brazil

72. Brazil in the South Atlantic: growing protagonism and unintended consequences

Author:: Adriana Erthal Abdenur and Danilo Marcondes de Souza Neto
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: For most of the twentieth century, the strategic importance of the North Atlantic outstripped that of the southern part of the ocean. However, the past decade has brought significant shifts in Atlantic dynamics, with regional and external actors developing new interests in the region. Brazil, in particular, has been working to reinforce its control and influence in the South Atlantic. To this end, over the last five years the Brazilian government has launched or intensified efforts meant to securitise the South Atlantic. This strategy combines unilateral initiatives – naval build-up, domestic military publicity efforts, and international legal moves – with a vastly expanded international defence cooperation programme that covers nearly the entire South Atlantic perimeter. This policy brief analyses key components of Brazil's strategy, situating them within the South Atlantic's changing ecology of actors and suggesting some of the potential tensions that may arise from Brazil's growing protagonism in the South Atlantic.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:: Latin America

73. The West must allow a power shift in international organizations

Author:: Jakob Vestergaard and Robert Hunter Wade
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: More than three years after the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s governing body agreed to reform the organization's governance so as to better reflect the increasing economic weight of dynamic emerging market economies in the world economy, only microscopic changes have been made. Emerging market and developing countries (EMDCs) have become increasingly frustrated with Western states for clinging to their inherited power, in the IMF and other important international economic governance organizations. The emerging cooperation among the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) – as seen in the advanced-stage negotiations to establish a Development Bank and a Contingent Reserve Arrangement – sends a “wake up and smell the coffee” call to the West, and the latter will carry a heavy responsibility for eroding global multilateral governance if it continues to drag its heels on the needed adjustments.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil

74. Combating Global Poverty: Investing in the Governance and Growth Nexus

Author:: Conor M. Savoy
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Foreign aid donors face a changed development landscape that necessitates a new approach to programming resources. In the last 20 years, countries across the developing world demo cratized, began to improve their governance, and experienced substantial economic growth. Yet, significant challenges remain that must be tackled, many of which fall within the governance and growth nexus. These issues—government effectiveness, rule of law, regulatory policies related to the business and investment climate, and barriers to entry to the formal economy—are the preeminent challenges to expanding broad- based economic growth and continuing to reduce global poverty. The United States needs to shift its focus away from meeting basic human needs toward broader institutional development if it is to increase support for the governance and growth nexus. U.S. foreign aid is overwhelmingly directed toward global health and the delivery of other public goods. This must change.
Topic:: Security, Development, Education, Emerging Markets, Health, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: United States and United Kingdom

75. US Employment Deindustrialization: Insights from History and the International Experience

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Manufacturing is a key sector of the US economy. Although value added in manufacturing represented just 11.9 percent of GDP in 2012, manufacturing activity is strongly associated with economic growth, because manufacturing serves as the fulcrum of supply chains that combine and process raw materials and services to produce goods.1 In addition, the sector is among the most dynamic—accounting for about 70 percent of US spending on business research and development—and it regularly outstrips the rest of the economy in productivity growth. Over the long run, the contributions of US manufacturing to total output growth have been steady. Measured in 2005 dollars, for example, the share of manufacturing in US output was about the same in 2005 as in 1947.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

76. Lessons from South Africa's BITs review

Author:: Xavier Carim
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Proponents tend to argue that bilateral investment treaties (BITs) encourage investment and strengthen the rule of law particularly in jurisdictions where court systems are weak or biased against foreigners. This premise is contested. First, studies on BITs and FDI suggest the relationship is, at best, ambiguous and that BITs are neither necessary nor sufficient to attract FDI. Indeed, South Africa receives FDI from investors in countries with whom it has no BIT and often little or no FDI from others where a BIT was in place.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

77. Achieving sustainable development objectives in international investment: Could future IIAs impose sustainable development-related obligations on investors?

Author:: Janani Sarvanantham and John Gaffney
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: A number of influential international organizations recently have issued publications that discuss the promotion of sustainable development in international investment. These organizations include the United Nations; UNCTAD; FAO, IFAD, the UNCTAD Secretariat, and the World Bank Group; the Commonwealth Secretariat; the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC); and the South African Development Community (SADC).
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, Foreign Aid, and Governance
Political Geography:: United Nations

78. Three challenges for China's outward FDI policy

Author:: Karl P. Sauvant
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Since China adopted its "going out" policy in 2001, her outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) flows have grown rapidly, reaching US$84 billion in 2012 (although the stock remains small). That year, China was the world's third largest outward investor (after the US and Japan). This performance raises all sorts of issues, especially because state-owned enterprises (SOEs) control some three-quarters of the country's OFDI stock. Three challenges are addressed in this Perspective.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and China

79. The Hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future

Author:: Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper describes seven salient features of trade integration in the 21st century: Trade integration has been more rapid than ever (hyperglobalization); it is dematerialized, with the growing importance of services trade; it is democratic, because openness has been embraced widely; it is criss-crossing because similar goods and investment flows now go from South to North as well as the reverse; it has witnessed the emergence of a mega-trader (China), the first since Imperial Britain; it has involved the proliferation of regional and preferential trade agreements and is on the cusp of mega-regionalism as the world's largest traders pursue such agreements with each other; and it is impeded by the continued existence of high barriers to trade in services. Going forward, the trading system will have to tackle three fundamental challenges: In developed countries, the domestic support for globalization needs to be sustained in the face of economic weakness and the reduced ability to maintain social insurance mechanisms. Second, China has become the world's largest trader and a major beneficiary of the current rules of the game. It will be called upon to shoulder more of the responsibilities of maintaining an open system. The third challenge will be to prevent the rise of mega-regionalism from leading to discrimination and becoming a source of trade conflicts. We suggest a way forward—including new areas of cooperation such as taxes—to maintain the open multilateral trading system and ensure that it benefits all countries.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and North America

80. Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Emerging-market growth from 2000 to 2012 was untypically high. This paper highlights the many reasons why emerging-economy growth is likely to be lower going forward. Much of the catch-up potential has already been used up. The extraordinary credit and commodity booms are over, and many large emerging economies are financially fragile. They have major governance problems, so they need to carry out major structural reforms to be able to proceed with a decent growth rate, but many policymakers are still in a state of hubris and not very inclined to opt for reforms. They are caught up in state and crony capitalism. Rather than providing free markets for all, the West might limit its endeavors to its own benefit. Economic convergence has hardly come to an end, but it has probably reached a hiatus that is likely to last many years. The emerging economies need to improve their quality of governance and other economic policies substantially to truly catch up. For a decade or so, the West could take the global economic lead once again as in the 1980s.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:: Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil

81. Development

Author:: David M. Malone and Rohinton P. Medhora
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Notions of development have varied over time, and so an account of the international organizations concerned with its advancement must be accordingly elastic. The roots of international organizations concerned with development lie in two aspects of global inter-connectedness. The first is the propagation and management of a nascent technology for the global good. Thus were born the International Telegraph Union (ITU, now the International Telecommunication Union) in 1865 and the General Postal Union (GPU, now the Universal Postal Union) in 1874.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, International Organization, and Post Colonialism

82. 2013 Index of Global Philanthropy and Remittances With a Special Report on Emerging Economies

Author:: Carol Adelman, Yulya Spantchak, Jeremiah Norris, and Kacie Marano
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The Center for Global Prosperity (CGP) at Hudson Institute is pleased to present the 2013 Index of Global Philanthropy and Remittances. This edition, our eighth Index, continues to show the growth in philanthropy, remittances and private investment throughout the world. It continues to show how private financial flows have surpassed government aid, and how new forms of giving are redefining foreign assistance and economic growth.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, Humanitarian Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment

83. Russia assumes and exploits the chairmanship of the G20

Author:: Pavel K. Baev
Publication Date:: 02-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Russia's plans for chairing the G20 in 2013 go further than staging a pompous summit in St Petersburg similar to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Vladivostok in September 2012. Russian leadership feels an acute need to re-establish a solid international profile eroded by the evolving domestic crisis, which undermines the credibility of Putin's regime.
Topic:: Corruption, Democratization, Emerging Markets, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Russia, Norway, Asia, Moscow, and Syria

84. The BRICS and international peacebuilding and statebuilding

Author:: Oliver Richmond and Ioannis Tellidis
Publication Date:: 02-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The emergence of the BRICS has generated a renewed debate about peacebuilding and donor activity. This has slowly influenced the aims, norms and practices of international peacebuilding, statebuilding and development. There are subtle differences in BRICS members' interests, approaches and motives, power, influence, and adherence to or rejection of established standards (such as OECD-DAC principles). These states' activities have often attracted scepticism and criticism from traditional donors. An examination of their engagement with interventionary forms of development, peacebuilding, statebuilding, and their related institutions and practices shows that the BRICS can be both “status-quo” and “critical” actors. On the one hand, they all engage with the liberal peace paradigm and its often-neoliberal agenda that allows them to protect sovereignty and non-intervention, pursue trade interests, and advance their own interests (like a seat on the UN Security Council, regional stability or maintaining their often-ambiguous status of being both aid donors and recipients). On the other hand, their involvement has challenged peacebuilding's and development's Euro-Atlantic character through the unfolding of their own donor and peace agendas. This report highlights the instances in which traditional and emerging actors' agendas converge and diverge – and the motivations behind these agendas.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, United Nations, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment

85. China's impact on conflict and fragility in South Asia

Author:: Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:: 01-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: China is expanding its engagement across South Asia, with significant implications for the region's most fragile states. Western donors and peacebuilding actors are aware of this changing context and concerned about their resulting loss of influence. Yet they have so far failed to develop a coordinated response or to engage effectively with China regarding its impact on fragility within the region.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, Israel, and Asia

86. A Theory of Rollover Risk, Sudden Stops, and Foreign Reserves

Author:: Sewon Hur and Illenin O. Kondo
Publication Date:: 02-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Emerging economies, unlike advanced economies, have accumulated large foreign reserve holdings. We argue that this policy is an optimal response to an increase in foreign debt rollover risk. In our model, reserves play a key role in reducing debt rollover crises ("sudden stops"), akin to the role of bank reserves in preventing bank runs. We find that a small, unexpected, and permanent increase in rollover risk accounts for the outburst of sudden stops in the late 1990s, the subsequent increase in foreign reserves holdings, and the salient resilience of emerging economies to sudden stops ever since. Finally, we show that a policy of pooling reserves can substantially reduce the reserves needed by emerging economies.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Risk, and Foreign Reserves
Political Geography:: Global Focus

87. Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies: A Brave New World?

Author:: Shaghil Ahmed and Andrei Zlate
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: We examine the determinants of net private capital inflows to emerging market economies. These inflows are computed from quarterly balance-of-payments data from 2002:Q1 to 2012:Q2. Our main findings are: First, growth and interest rate differentials between EMEs and advanced economies and global risk appetite are statistically and economically important determinants of net private capital inflows. Second, there have been significant changes in the behavior of net inflows from the period before the recent global financial crisis to the post-crisis period, especially for portfolio inflows, partly explained by the greater sensitivity of such .flows to interest rate differentials and risk aversion. Third, capital control measures introduced in recent years do appear to have discouraged both total and portfolio inflows. Fourth, in the pre-crisis period, there is some evidence that greater foreign exchange intervention to curb currency appreciation pressures brought more capital inflows down the line, but we cannot identify such an effect in the post-crisis period. Finally, we do not find statistically significant positive effects of unconventional U.S. monetary expansion on total net EME inflows, although there does seem to be a change in composition toward portfolio flows. Even for portfolio flows, U.S. unconventional policy is only one among several important factors.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Interest Rates, and Capital
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

88. Global Financial Conditions, Country Spreads and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Countries

Author:: Ozge Akinci
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) Global financial risk shocks explain about 20 percent of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, Financial Crisis, and Global Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

89. Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: An alternative Theoretical Framework

Author:: Bruno Bonizzi
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper represents a theoretical contribution to the analysis of international capital flows. It outlines an alternative theoretical framework based on Post-Keynesian monetary theory, and in particular on Hyman Minsky’s Wall Street paradigm and concept of Money-manager capitalism and Jan Toporowski’s theory of capital market inflation. The key aspects of such an approach are, firstly, that in a monetary analysis capital flows need to be understood as “flows of funds”, as opposed to the traditional understanding of capital flows based on “real” decision, such as saving and investment. A consequence of this is the need of focusing on gross rather than net capital flows. Secondly, when considering emerging markets, the asymmetric nature of the international monetary system must be stressed. Thirdly, it is important to understand the specific forms that capital flows take: in today’s world, pension funds and other institutional investors — alongside banks — are key players in the financial markets, and their role in shaping capital flows to emerging markets must be explicitly recognised. This paper synthesises these elements by understanding capital flows as the result of institutional investors portfolio choice. Along the lines of Minsky and Toporowski, portfolio choice by institutional investors need to be assessed in relation to their balance sheet structure, beside risk/return trade-offs and general state of risk aversion
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Capital Flows, Investment, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

90. Trust, Engagement, and Technology Transfer: Underpinnings for U.S.-Brazil Defense Cooperation

Author:: E. Richard Downes
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: On the eve of the January 1, 2011, inauguration of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, the State Department noted that the United States “is committed to deepening our relationship on a wide range of bilateral, regional and global issues with Brazil's government and people.” President Rousseff herself declared shortly thereafter, “We will preserve and deepen the relationship with the United States.” During President Barack Obama's March 2011 visit to Brazil, both leaders cited “the progress achieved on defense issues in 2010” and stated their commitment to “follow up on the established dialogue in this area, primarily on new opportunities for cooperation.” While these rhetorical commitments are important, will they lead to greater cooperation on defense issues and improve U.S.-Brazil ties?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Emerging Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Brazil, and Latin America

91. Transforming the Philippines’ Defense Architecture: How to Create a Credible and Sustainable Maritime Deterrent

Author:: Felix Chang
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: This paper argues that to adequately defend its maritime claims, the Philippines should consider an external defense architecture designed around mobile coastal defense batteries equipped with long-range anti-ship missiles and protected by an integrated air defense umbrella. Such an architecture would provide the Philippines with an effective means to not only counter surface combatants and improve the survivability of its own forces against naval aviation or ballistic missiles, but also do so with lower procurement, maintenance, and operational readiness costs than a traditional force would require. The Philippine government’s new capabilities-based defense budgeting process offers the country an opportunity to study and adopt this sort of defense architecture, which has become increasingly necessary as rising powers, such as China, have begun to test Philippine maritime sovereignty at places like Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly Islands.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Emerging Markets, Political Economy, Maritime Commerce, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: China and Philippines

92. New Approaches to Global Health Cooperation: Perspectives from Brazil

Author:: Katherine E. Bliss, Paulo Buss, and Felix Rosenberg
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: On November 7, 2011, the Global Health Policy Center of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., in partnership with the Fiocruz Center for Global Health (CRIS) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, hosted a seminar entitled “New Approaches to Global Health Cooperation.” The event, which took place in Rio de Janeiro, assembled health policy researchers and practitioners from Brazil, Europe, the United States, and sub - Saharan Africa to examine emerging practices in global health co operation. Issues considered included the factors driving greater international engagement on public health challenges, the growing trend of trilateral cooperation, and the role of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and South - South activities in expanding international cooperation on global health. Over the course of the day - long meeting, speakers and audience members examined the reasons for the overall expansion of funding and programming for overseas global health activities durin g the past decade; considered the factors that underpin Brazil's increasing focus on global health as an area of bilateral and multilateral outreach; reviewed the characteristics of successful trilateral cooperation efforts; and debated the future of multi country engagement on health.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, Health, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Washington, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Latin America

93. Freeing the Global Market: How to Boost the Economy by Curbing Regulatory Distortions

Author:: Shanker A. Singham
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage. ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars. To combat ACMDs, the conventional trade policy approach of focusing on the The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage.1 ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, India, and Brazil

94. Is China's outward investment in oil a global security concern?

Author:: Ilan Alon and Aleh Cherp
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The motivations prompting China's dramatic increase in outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) are not always clear, especially regarding OFDI by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in energy and natural resources. First, both commercial and governmental interests are intertwined, although not necessarily in lock-step. Chinese SOEs listed in the West may worry about the reputational risks to their global corporate citizenship, while government stakeholders may instead focus on diplomatic international relations. Second, subsidies for oil investments may be viewed as serving Chinese national interests and threatening the national security of the host countries. Whether China's OFDI will benefit or harm global energy security, economic development and diplomatic relations is still hotly contested.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China

95. State-controlled entities as "investors" under international investment agreements

Author:: Jo En Low
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: A review of the definition of “investor” and investor-state dispute resolution clauses in 851 international investment agreements (IIAs) reveals that, except in two, state controlled entities (SCEs) (sovereign wealth funds and state-owned enterprises (SOEs)) have equivalent standing to their purely private counterparts as investors under such IIAs.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment

96. Absent from the discussion: The other half of investment promotion

Author:: Lise Johnson
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: As UNCTAD highlighted over a decade ago and again recently in its Investment Policy Framework for Sustainable Development, home-country measures (HCMs), like host-country commitments regarding the protection of foreign investors, are tools of promoting foreign investment. Nevertheless, the vast bulk of investment treaties, which state the promotion of foreign investment as their objective, overlook the potential role of HCMs and focus rather singularly on setting out the obligations of host countries regarding the treatment of foreign investors. Even recent agreements and model investment treaties that should represent “next generation” practices incorporating accumulated learning about the impacts and effectiveness of these treaties remain relatively devoid of any obligation for governments to facilitate or promote the quantity and quality of outward investment that many countries want and need for sustainable development.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment

97. Starting anew in international investment law

Author:: M Sornarajah
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The legitimacy of investment arbitration becomes increasingly questioned, with liberal states like Australia moving away from the regime. Defenders seek to ensure the survival of this regime of asymmetric investment protection, using a variety of techniques. The conservation of the gains of property protection has resulted in novel arguments relating to the existence of a global administrative law and standards of global governance. These arguments seek to preserve an approach associated with the failure of market fundamentalism and global economic crises. As long as the inequity contained in regulatory restraints of the system affected only the powerless states, it operated with vigor; but with powerful states feeling the effects of regulatory restraints of investment treaties, there has been movement away from the earlier premises of the established regime.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, India, and Australia

98. Law at two speeds: Legal frameworks regulating foreign investment in the global South

Author:: Lorenzo Cotula
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Foreign investment in developing countries' natural resources brings into contact competing interests characterized by an unequal balance of negotiating power -- from multinational enterprises and host governments to people affected by the implementation of investment projects. Economic globalization has been accompanied by extensive developments in national and international norms regulating investment and its impact -- including investment law, natural resource law and human rights law. These norms affect the way the costs, risks and benefits of investments are shared among the multiple parties involved.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Law, Foreign Direct Investment, and Law

99. Roll out the red carpet and they will come: Investment promotion and FDI inflows

Author:: Torfinn Harding and Beata Javorcik
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Foreign direct investment flows to developing countries are hindered by many factors. Two of these factors -- the mere lack of information and red tape -- could be easily remedied through investment promotion efforts.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment

100. What Friends Are Made Of: Bilateral Linkages and Domestic Drivers of Foreign Policy Alignment with China

Author:: Georg Strüver
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: With China's emergence as a global economic and political power, it is commonly assumed that its leadership's influence in international politics has increased considerably. However, systematic studies of China's impact on the foreign policy behavior of other states are rare and generally limited to questions regarding economic capabilities and the use of coercive power. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature on China's global political rise by taking a broader perspective. Drawing on voting data from the UN General Assembly for the last two decades, it explores the plausibility of different explanations for foreign policy similarity: economic, diplomatic and military linkages; domestic institutional similarities; and parallel problem‐solving processes. The logistic regression analyses find that high similarity levels correlate with shared regime characteristics and comparable patterns of sociopolitical globalization. The results further indicate that foreign aid and arms trading seem to help buy support in global politics.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Emerging Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: China and Israel

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS