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1. Electoral Clientelism and Election violence in South and South-East Asia

Author:
Fariha Tabassum
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This study aims at examining the effect of electoral clientelism on election violence under a variety of conditions. Taking motivation from earlier research denoting increased risk of violence in elections in high clientelist context, this paper examines the effect of electoral clientelism in terms of vote buying on election violence. This study extends existing literature by arguing that the effect of electoral clientelism on election violence is dependent upon certain conditions and can vary across these conditions. The region of focus for this study is South and Southeast Asia since this is an understudied region with a high level of election violence as well as electoral clientelism. The results show significant evidence for the argument that the effect of electoral clientelism on election violence is dependent upon the conditions of competitiveness, media freedom and the general level of political violence prevailing in a country.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Violence, and Clientelism
Political Geography:
South Asia and Southeast Asia

2. Coethnics covote in Africa: Studying electoral cleavages with a covoting regression model

Author:
Carl Müller-Crepon and Nils-Christian Bormann
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Ethnicity is an important cleavage in Africa, yet its influence on voting is contested. Existing micro-level analyses often focus on electoral support for a subset of candidates or parties, while meso- and macro-level approaches infer individual motivations from aggregate outcomes. The risk of selection bias arises from the former approach, while omitted-variable bias may result from the latter. Our new covoting regression (CVR) tackles several of these challenges. It estimates the effect of coethnicity on the probability that pairs of voters covote for the same party/candidate while conditioning on other characteristics shared between them. Thereby, CVR mirrors the micro foundations of widely used aggregate indicators, such as the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of party concentration and ethnic homogeneity. Our data consist of dyadic comparisons between respondents from Afrobarometer surveys. Pooling across 27 countries, coethnicity increases covoting intentions by 17 percentage points. The effect of coethnicity is driven by politically relevant groups and covoting for ethnic parties. It is consistent across institutionally diverse countries and at least four times larger than that of other cleavages. Beyond ethnicity, we address key issues in studying electoral consequences of socioeconomic cleavages and bridge gaps between levels of analysis.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Ethnicity, and Voting
Political Geography:
Africa

3. Strengthening Democracy, Deepening Practice, and Shapingthe Future of Governance in Central Africa

Author:
Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Democracy in Central Africa is at a critical juncture. While citizen demand for accountability hasgrown, political instability, fragile institutions, and shrinking civic space continue to underminedemocratic progress. Elections, though increasingly frequent, remain high-stakes events that caneither strengthen legitimacy or expose systemic weaknesses. Ensuring transparency, credibility,and institutional resilience is therefore essential. This policy brief argues that the region’s democratic future depends on translating continentalnorms into national practice, strengthening institutions, and cultivating a civically literate publiccapable of sustaining democratic culture. Without these foundations, reforms risk remainingsymbolic rather than transformative.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Africa and Central Africa

4. Online Narratives and Manipulations: Tunisian and Regional Panorama

Author:
Arab Reform Initiative
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
In the wake of the presidential elections of October 2024, the first since the coup d'état in July 2021, Tunisia has seen a resurgence of suspiciously sponsored political content, both pro- and anti-regime, on online social media networks. These included advertisements denouncing the refusal of the president of the electoral body, Farouk Bouasker, to reinstate certain candidates. We also saw “locked” profiles with Egyptian-sounding names reacting with likes or "laugh" emojis to publications on the Facebook page of the Presidency of the Republic of Tunisia. With the proliferation of anti-Saied pages garnering thousands of likes in the space of a few days, pro-regime influencers have multiplied their videos to denounce the spread of these pages and content, calling their audiences to witness the truth of the plot hatched by dark forces, which is the mainstay of the new regime's narrative. It is hard to overlook the importance of Facebook in Tunisia. It remains the most widely used network1 and continues to be a major platform for political life.2 While it has long been the site of disinformation campaigns3 in Tunisia, in recent years the issue has taken on a whole new dimension: the sector has gone from being a local, cottage industry to a veritable industry run by specialized companies operating on an international scale. This industrialization of disinformation goes hand in hand with a phenomenon of opinion manipulation, taking the form of troll profiles dictating the political agenda, or fake profiles creating a false sense of popularity for certain ideas. Both disinformation and manipulation raise questions about the future of democracy, in Tunisia and globally, in a context where for many, these networks continue to represent a faithful reflection of reality. This paper seeks to provide an overview of the dynamics of disinformation from the Tunisian digital space, exploring the different narratives conveyed, forms of manipulation, and the role of social media platforms in their amplification. The paper also shows that certain disinformation narratives circulate between different countries in the region. The aim is to broaden reflection on these forms of manipulation while proposing a regional research and action agenda that can help reduce the impact of these activities, known in the Arab world by the general name of "electronic flies".4
Topic:
Elections, Media, Misinformation, and Narrative
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

5. Italy’s Foreign Policy in the ‘Super-election Year’ 2024

Author:
Leo Goretti and Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This document provides an English summary of the 2024 edition of IAI’s annual report on Italian foreign policy titled: “L’Italia nell’anno delle grandi elezioni”, developed with the support of the Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo. The 2024 edition of the report, edited by Ferdinando Nelli Feroci and Leo Goretti, features the contributions of a group of IAI researchers coordinated by the Institute’s Italian Foreign Policy programme. The report covers all the core areas of Italian foreign policy, beginning with the relations with the European Union and European allies and those with the US at the dawn of Donald Trump’s second term. Specific attention is paid to the two major crises in the closest neighbourhood of the country, analysing Italy’s commitment to supporting Ukraine and its position vis-à-vis the Israel-Gaza conflict. An in-depth focus is devoted to the government’s pivot to Africa under the umbrella of the so-called “Mattei Plan”, as well as the relations with the People’s Republic of China and the Indo-Pacific region at large. Structural policies are then addressed, from the defence and aerospace policy to the government’s approach to the energy and climate crises to migration policy. Finally, some considerations are made on the 2024 Italian G7 Presidency and the overall Italian involvement in multilateral fora.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Donald Trump, and Mattei Plan
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

6. Fracking or No Fracking? How a Green Transition Can Work for Workers

Author:
Robert Pollin and Jeannette Wicks-Lim
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Throughout the 2024 U.S. Presidential campaign, the only climate-related issue to achieve prominence was the question of whether to ban fracking operations in the United States. Donald Trump is a long-time climate denier, and therefore had no qualms in supporting fracking and all other techniques for extracting fossil fuels from the ground. By contrast, Kamala Harris had supported a nationwide ban on fracking during her 2019 presidential campaign. This was due to the severe negative environmental and public health impacts of this natural gas extraction technique and because burning natural gas to produce energy generates CO2 emissions that cause climate change. But Harris opposed a fracking ban in 2024 on the assumption that the ban would impose major costs to the economy of Pennsylvania, which has the second-largest fracking operations among U.S. states, after Texas only. Such negative economic outcomes in Pennsylvania would indeed result if fracking were banned in the U.S. and no large-scale alternative economic activities were introduced into Pennsylvania’s economy. But banning fracking must be understood as one component of a much larger program to advance a viable climate stabilization program, in Pennsylvania, and everywhere else. We find that building a clean energy-dominant infrastructure in Pennsylvania—focused on investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources—will generate approximately 160,000 jobs in the state. Meanwhile, phasing down fracking and all other fossil fuel activities by 50 percent between 2026 – 35 will entail job losses in the range of 1,700 per year within the state. We argue that these 1,700 displaced fossil fuel workers should receive just transition policies that include pension, employment and income guarantees, in addition to, as needed, retraining and relocation support. We estimate that such a just transition program for these workers will cost in the range of $240 million per year. This amounts to about 0.02 percent of Pennsylvania’s current GDP. Thus, we show how, between 2026 – 2035, Pennsylvania could phase out 50 percent of all its fossil fuel production activities—including fracking operations—while also providing generous support for workers to transition out of their fossil fuel industry jobs and into activities that both raise public health and environmental standards in the state and contribute toward a viable global climate stabilization project.
Topic:
Climate Change, Elections, Green Transition, and Fracking
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

7. Whom do African election campaigns contact? And does it matter?

Author:
Robert Mattes, Matthias Krönke, and Sarah J. Lockwood
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Canvassing is an important way in which political parties around the world raise awareness and connect with voters. Despite this, the literature on parties in new democracies, and Africa in particular, has tended to overlook this form of activity, focusing instead on vote buying, mass rallies, and meetings. In this paper, we use public opinion survey data from Afrobarometer and the Comparative National Elections Project to show that overall rates of canvassing in Africa are similar to other new, as well as many established, democracies. The data also challenge several dominant views of party campaigns in the Africanist literature. First, African parties do not concentrate primarily on turning out their base, rather than reaching across the partisan divide. Indeed, the opposite is the case. African parties expend more energy contacting nonpartisan independents and cross-partisans, and thus make a potentially meaningful contribution to the supply of multiparty competition. Second, the vast majority of contacts occur without any clientelist exchanges of material goods between parties and individual voters. And third, while incumbent parties enjoy canvassing advantages over opposition parties in around one-third of the surveyed countries, opposition parties (viewed collectively) match the party in power in terms of the ground game in another third, and enjoy higher rates of contact in yet another third.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Africa

8. Slovakia: civil society opposes its leaders

Author:
Radovan Gura and Gilles Rouet
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
For some years now, Slovakia has been going through a period of profound political change. Marked by a complex history influenced by the Pan-Slavic movement and the legacy of the communist period, the Slovak political scene is characterised by growing instability, a division of society and a rise in populist discourse. Successive events have fuelled discontent and protests, which are now directed at the Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Topic:
Civil Society, Elections, Populism, Domestic Politics, and Post-Communism
Political Geography:
Europe and Slovakia

9. Examining Political Parties’ Perspectives on Foreign Policy through Their Election Manifestos: 2023 General Elections in Türkiye

Author:
Ibrahim Yılmaz
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The election manifestos, published by political parties before a general election, provide important information about what the countries’ domestic and foreign policies might be like. In Türkiye, it might be argued that the attitudes of political parties toward foreign policy are important to voters. Political parties in Türkiye state, in general, their approach to foreign policy in their general election manifestos. The aim of this study is related to the approaches of political parties’ foreign policy perspectives. The perspectives of political parties on foreign policy are examined through their 2023 general election manifestos. More specifically, the aim of this study is twofold. Firstly, to understand how much importance political parties give to the issue of foreign policy in their election manifestos and secondly, to examine what are the raised key issues in foreign policy within the election manifestos.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

10. Ronnie C. Chan: The Past, Present, and Future of U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Ronnie C. Chan and Lien-Hang Nguyen
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
December 2, 2024 — Ronnie C. Chan, Honorary Chair of Hang Lung Properties and Chair Emeritus of the Asia Society, speaks with Lien-Hang Nguyen, Director of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, about the implications of the 2024 U.S. presidential election for the future of U.S.-China relations and global stability. Columbia University Interim President Katrina Armstrong and University Professor Jeffrey Sachs contribute introductory remarks.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Political stability
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

11. Will Kuwait’s Parliamentary Democracy Be Restored, Reformed, or Repudiated?

Author:
Omar Al Jasser and Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Kuwaitis are accustomed to a domestic political scene that sometimes resembles a soap opera with shifting characters and much melodrama but no resolution. For over a generation, fiercely contested parliamentary elections have consistently produced fractured parliaments that clash with individual ministers, leading to confrontation, parliamentary grilling, and dissolutions of cabinets and parliaments that are replaced by new bodies that merely resume the tussle. But on May 10, 2024, the soap opera abruptly came to an end. Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad, the newly enthroned emir, not only dissolved the recently elected parliament but also suspended the body indefinitely, promising a four-year process of constitutional revision. While the step was dramatic, the extent and nature of further change remains unclear. The suspension is forcing all Kuwaiti political actors to direct their attention to portentous long-term issues rather than more ephemeral short-term drama, but so far there is little indication of how the issues will be resolved. The drama of daily crises has often obscured far more significant evolutionary trends. Over the six decades of its existence, the Kuwaiti constitution’s text has not changed, but the way key institutions operate (parliament in particular) and the way they interact (especially cabinet-parliamentary relations) have changed significantly. The suspension of parliament came largely in response to ruler frustrations with this dichotomy and the feeling that parliaments lead to gridlock, grandstanding, and corruption. Has a governing system that seemed to offer so much noise and motion but little movement come to a full stop? Will Kuwait rejoin its neighbors and abandon its experiment with powerful parliaments? Other parliamentary bodies on the Arabian Peninsula are generally more limited in their prerogatives, and elections are either avoided or constrained; notably, Qatar abandoned elections in favor of an appointed assembly six months after the Kuwaiti parliamentary suspension. Or will Kuwait instead simply revert back to its old system after a cooling-off period or in response to popular pressure (as happened twice in the past)? At this point, it is uncertain whether Kuwait’s style of parliamentary democracy will be restored, reformed, or repudiated. Still, the fallout from the emir’s action has deeply affected the rhythm of Kuwaiti politics (and silenced some of the loudest public discussions) without determining the country’s fundamental direction. The path of full autocracy remains open, and the promise of a committee to reform the constitution and pave the way for parliamentary restoration has been ignored to date. But this inaction does not necessarily imply an intention to permanently abolish parliament; rather, it may suggest that reform or restoration is more likely. Regardless, there are currently no clear indications of what changes might be made. So, while the potential for dramatic change exists, Kuwait’s leaders may have simply bought themselves a respite rather than a resolution. Important Kuwaiti political actors seem to be working out their strategies very slowly, meaning that questions will be answered over years, not weeks or months. But in the meantime, the flavor of Kuwaiti politics is shifting in ways that are often unannounced but very consequential for a society accustomed to a feisty and active political life.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Kuwait and Gulf Nations

12. To Vote or Not to Vote: Venezuelans Face Another Election Choice

Author:
Catherine Ellis
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In the shadow of a contested presidential vote, Venezuela’s upcoming regional elections reveal more about power struggles than democratic representation.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Representation, and Voting
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

13. Ecuador Enters "Trump Mode" with Noboa Victory

Author:
Ociel Alí López
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Authoritarian drift and political blackmail shape the runoff election in Ecuador, where incumbent President Daniel Noboa won Sunday’s vote.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Domestic Politics, Democratic Backsliding, and Daniel Noboa
Political Geography:
Central America and Ecuador

14. Can Democracy Stop Extractivism and Authoritarianism?

Author:
Paula Sevilla Núñez
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Ecuador’s electorate will go to a runoff vote in April in a highly polarized climate. At stake is a broader political struggle between authoritarianism and democracy.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Extractivism
Political Geography:
Central America and Ecuador

15. In a Polarized Political Climate, Ecuador Heads to a Presidential Runoff

Author:
Marc Becker
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Ecuador held its general election on February 9. Defying the polls, Ecuadorians will be heading to a runoff race in April to choose its next president.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Central America and Ecuador

16. A Proposal for Plurinational Popular Power Woven from Below

Author:
Malvika Gupta
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Leonidas Iza, Ecuador’s presidential candidate with the Indigenous-aligned Pachakutik political movement, outlines his vision for governing a Plurinational State.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Domestic Politics, Indigenous, and Plurinationalism
Political Geography:
Central America and Ecuador

17. South Sudan’s peace process stagnates as violence grips Greater Upper Nile region

Author:
Stefan Bakumenko
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
In September 2024, South Sudan’s government postponed elections until 2026.1 This and other violations of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) reinforce the country’s deep divisions and continued, widespread violence.2 After a devastating civil war (2013-2018), politicians, generals, and communities have lacked a unifying identity or incentive and have focused on shoring up their political power, undermining their rivals, and diversifying their economic holdings. As South Sudan’s oil fields dry up, wealth and sustenance are carved out wherever they can be found, often violently.3 The central government in Juba deprives national institutions of funding, neither state nor rebel forces are committed to integrating into a unified military, and state officials at all levels exploit their positions to fund expensive lifestyles and large patronage networks.4 Politicians have long plundered South Sudan’s main source of wealth, its state-owned oil company, Nilepet, to fuel their wars and wealth, and the country remains economically destitute.5 Across South Sudan, violence has become more geographically dispersed as armed groups have fractured. Between 1 January 2013 and the signing of R-ARCSS on 12 September 2018, there were conflict events in 718 distinct locations, compared to 1,720 between 13 September 2018 and 17 January 2025 (see maps below). Given these realities, the peace process could hardly address South Sudan’s myriad, local-level contests over borders, resources, and political positions.6
Topic:
Elections, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

18. The View from Africa Before and After the U.S. Elections—Q&A with Mark Deets

Author:
Omar Auf and Mark Deets
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Trump’s re-election brought massive changes to many aspects of the United States and the world. What led to Trump regaining the presidency? What will the reverberations look like in West Africa? Omar Auf sat with historian Mark Deets to find out
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Interview, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, and United States of America

19. Rule of law in Mozambique

Author:
Margherita Bove and Patricia Justino
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the state and evolution of the rule of law in Mozambique, focusing on key dimensions such as voice and political participation, judicial independence and accessibility, corruption, access to basic services, personal security, and property rights. Drawing on Afrobarometer surveys, voting data, and conflict records, the paper offer insights into the perceptions and experiences of Mozambican citizens. The findings indicate a deterioration in institutional trust over the past two decades, alongside declining voter turnout in general elections and increasing election-related and political violence. Despite reforms aimed at improving judicial autonomy and accessibility, the legal system remains affected by inefficiencies and regional disparities. Citizens are often subject to bribery when accessing essential public services, and perception of corruption in key institutions remains high. Concerns about fairness and integrity in the land registration process can also weaken confidence in land security and property rights protection. The paper highlights the continued challenges Mozambique faces in consolidating the rule of law, exacerbated by legacies of conflict, political instability, and uneven socioeconomic development.
Topic:
Elections, Rule of Law, Institutions, Survey, and Trust
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

20. From Tunis to Baghdad: Can platform-based politics take root?

Author:
Carrie Schenkel and James Storen
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The organization of political parties has served multiple distinct roles in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In many cases, regimes use them to create a light veneer of democratic legitimacy for authoritarianism; in other cases, parties exist to represent one identity group or are centered around a singular individual. In rare cases, but with a few successful examples, parties exist to represent an ideology. Rarer still, but key to the future democratic success of the region, are true platform-based parties. Vacuums of political leadership have developed due to the limited role parties play in shaping governance, representation, and public policy. In a rapidly changing region, the opportunity for effective, issues-based parties has never been more evident. Iran’s proxies in the region have been significantly weakened and the “Axis of Resistance” dismantled, presenting openings for new political leadership to emerge. Political parties are not yet poised to meet the moment. In much of the region, long histories of implicit and explicit bans and one-party dominance have left political parties weak, unpopular, and ineffective. Extended periods of suppression and restriction—such as Jordan’s thirty-year party ban, Iraq’s decades of one-party rule under Saddam Hussein, and Tunisia’s twenty-three years of party bans during the Ben Ali era—have resulted in political parties that lack both organizational capacity and broad public appeal. Rather, they are fragmented, ideologically vague, and centered around individuals rather than coherent platforms. The proliferation of political parties—more than 220 are currently registered in Tunisia, for example—has further undermined any sense of clear policy platforms and the ability to differentiate one party from another. Rather than reforming or uniting under existing frameworks, disillusioned members frequently break away to form new parties, stymieing coalition-building and the development of rooted, comprehensive party ideologies. Disillusionment with traditional parties has led citizens to favor actors perceived as more directly serving their interests, such as Hezbollah—which positions itself as a resistance force against Israel—or Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated parties, which have gained trust through their provision of essential social services in Egypt, Jordan, and elsewhere. In an era defined by youth-led movements, digital activism, and persistent calls for democratization, these parties stand at a crossroads. Whether they act as agents of change or instruments of entrenched power remains a central question, shaping not only the future of governance within individual nations but also the trajectory of regional stability and development.
Topic:
Civil Society, Corruption, Diplomacy, Politics, Elections, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North Africa, and Lebanon

21. A Forward-Looking Vision for Reforming the Palestinian Political System

Author:
Maher Issa and Omar Rahal
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Political reform in Palestine is an urgent necessity to achieve progress and development, ensure political and social stability, and confront the internal and external challenges facing the Palestinian cause. The Palestinian political system, which was established under complex historical circumstances and under Israeli occupation, needs continuous development to be able to respond to the requirements of the Palestinian people and their aspirations for freedom, dignity, and independence. The importance of political reform also comes in the context of enhancing the political legitimacy of the Palestinian system. Over time, the Palestinian citizen’s confidence in political institutions has declined as a result of the accumulation of issues such as the absence of periodic elections, the erosion of legitimacy, weak accountability and transparency, and the spread of favoritism and corruption in some areas. Thus, this reform is the cornerstone for rebuilding trust between the people and their institutions, and ensuring real and inclusive representation of all groups.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Elections, Legitimacy, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

22. Europeans still want climate action, but don't trust governments to deliver

Author:
Jan Eichhorn and Heather Grabbe
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The vast majority of Europeans continues to support action to combat climate change, but many are losing faith in governments to deliver a transition that is effective and fair. Based on a large-scale questionnaire answered by nearly 8000 people in five EU countries in 2024, with a comparison to responses from 2020, we find that Europeans continue to worry about climate change and want effective action to combat it, even though the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly increased their concerns about economic and physical insecurity. Scepticism about the causes of climate change has risen a bit, and concern about adapting to its impact has grown. People across all income groups, particularly in France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, feel negative about the outlook for their economic future and their governments’ ability to improve it. People who feel politically disaffected think that decisionmakers are not taking their views and interests into account when making economic and climate policies. Some people are now shifting their attention away from action against the climate crisis towards adaptation, but this does not mean they are less concerned about climate change. Instead, for some people, it is an expression of their disillusionment with state institutions – and this feeling is present among supporters of parties across the political spectrum. Worry about climate change is equally spread across all socio-economic groups. Closer examination of attitudes in Germany, using evidence from focus groups, which we also discuss in this Policy Brief, reinforces the finding of increasing scepticism about the German government’s ability to manage the climate crisis. If political leaders want the public to continue to support climate policies, they must engage proactively now to avoid even greater loss of confidence in government. If governments go soft on efforts to combat the climate crisis now or delay action, they will not meet voters’ demand for an effective and just transition. Moreover, hesitation and delay would boost populist and far-right actors’ efforts to sow doubt about the causes of climate change and whether policies will be effective.
Topic:
Climate Change, Elections, Populism, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

23. Women Political Leaders as Agents of Environmental Change

Author:
Inés Berniell, Mariana Marchionni, Julian Pedrazzi, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper explores how female political leaders impact environmental outcomes and climate change policy actions using data from mixed-gender mayoral races in Brazil. Using a Regression Discontinuity design we find that, compared to male mayors, female mayors significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This effect is driven by a reduction in emissions intensity (CO2e/GDP) in the Land Use sector, without changes in municipal economic activity. Part of the reduction in emissions in the Land Use sector is attributable to a decline in deforestation. We examine potential mechanisms that could explain the positive environmental impact of narrowly electing a female mayor over a male counterpart and find that in Amazon municipalities, female elected mayors allocate more space to the environment in their government proposals and are more likely to invest in environmental initiatives. Differences in the enforcement of environmental regulations do not explain the results.
Topic:
Climate Change, Politics, Elections, Women, Leadership, and Gender
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and Amazon Basin

24. The Brexit Files: from referendum to reset

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
For the past decade, UK in a Changing Europe has provided impartial, research-based analysis on a number of issues, but most particularly on UK-EU relations. Since before the 2015 General Election, we have evaluated those relations, traced and explained the tortuous Brexit process, and attempted to assess the impact that Brexit has had on the country. This report brings together some of the best scholars working on these issues to consider a number of these questions on the 5th anniversary of the UK ceasing to be a member of the European Union.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

25. How to Replace 'First Past the Post'

Author:
Jess Garland, Rainbow Murray, Stephen Gethins, and Stijn van Kessel
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In 1918, Parliament came within hours of abolishing First Past the Post. The system only survived because the two Houses disagreed on the system that should replace it. With the Bill on the brink of collapse, the question was postponed – a reprieve that has lasted for 107 years. In a recent YouGov poll, only 23% of respondents backed First Past the Post. But what might replace it? Different countries use a dizzying array of different systems, which are designed to do different things. Some are ‘proportional’, others ‘preferential’. Some would expand the range of parties, while others might shrink them. Do we want our electoral system to give us strong governments or strong parliaments? Do we want more or fewer regional parties, independent candidates, extremist parties or coalitions? In this event, co-hosted with Unlock Democracy, the Electoral Reform Society and Make Votes Matter, the Mile End Institute presented different electoral systems as used in France, New Zealand, Scotland, Ireland and the Netherlands. Dr Jess Garland (ERS), Professor Rainbow Murray (QMUL), Stephen Gethins MP and Professor Stijn van Kessel (QMUL) debated their strengths and weaknesses; what they can and can’t achieve; and how they work in practice.
Topic:
Government, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

26. The Conservative Party in Opposition

Author:
Tim Bale, Nigel Fletcher, Lee David Evans, and Mercy Muroki
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
As Kemi Badenoch began her tenure as Leader of the Conservative Party and the Leader of His Majesty's Official Opposition, Prof Tim Bale was joined by Dr Nigel Fletcher, Lee David Evans and Mercy Muroki to explore her approach to leadership and what her Shadow Cabinet appointments tell us about the future of Conservative policy. After the most successful electoral force in British history suffered the worst defeat in its 200-year existence, our expert panel of academics, historians and political commentators considered how the new Conservative leader might approach the challenges and dilemmas of Opposition.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Conservative Party
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

27. Australians Vote for the Steady Center

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
On May 3, the Australian Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, returned to power. It was a remarkable result. First-term governments in Australia usually get a second term, but typically with a reduced majority. Not only did Labor increase its majority, but the size of its victory has probably consigned their main political rivals — a Coalition of the Liberal Party and the rural-based National Party — to Opposition for at least the next two terms of government. The result has been so politically traumatic that the two Opposition parties have torn up their Coalition agreement for the first time since 1987. Foreign and defense policy did not really feature in the election campaign. The result suggests there will not be too much change in Australia’s approach to the world. But the election also hints at the challenge the government will face balancing domestic and international priorities. By highlighting U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Australia, it also points to how managing the alliance may become a little trickier in Albanese’s new term.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

28. Bro-Politics in Action: Trump and the “Personalization” of Foreign Policy

Author:
Ádám Csobánci
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Congratulations poured in from European heads of state and government as soon as it became clear that Donald Trump was turning U.S. battleground states red and winning the presidential election last November. Many presidents and prime ministers posted selfies and pictures with Trump, emphasizing their strong personal relationship and shared history. While congratulations to the new President might seem like standard diplomatic courtesy, the enthusiasm for the upcoming Trump 2.0 administration from Paris, Berlin, and Brussels appears less than sincere, given their rather complicated relationships with the first Trump administration. In contrast, leaders like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who described Trump’s victory as "the biggest comeback in Western political history" and forecasted a golden era in US-Hungarian relations, expressed a strong eagerness to collaborate on shared goals. Similarly, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni praised the "unshakable alliance" between Italy and the U.S., demonstrating clear support for Trump’s win. Recognizing the heightened importance of personal relationships in dealing with Trump and his administration, European leaders are hoping to establish strong personal ties with the President. This trend report predicts how in 2025 further “personalization” of foreign policy is to be expected from the next U.S. administration. I present, through the examples of Orbán and Meloni, that European leaders already possessing close ties with the next U.S. president or his inner circle might have a significant head start to influence Trump’s Europe policy, with far-reaching consequences. Europeans who were not in power during Trump’s first term are pressed for time because the start of his new presidency is expected to bring rapid and aggressive policy changes. With the Republican Party controlling all branches of government, Trump’s administration will likely prioritize advancing its agenda swiftly, particularly before the midterm elections in 2026, when Congressional support could wane. For European leaders who are new to office or lacked strong ties with Trump previously, this creates urgency. They have strong incentives to build closer relations with his administration, whether due to shared ideologies or fears of trade tariffs; however, they face a glaring challenge. They will have to compete for Trump’s very limited time, attention and interest, as European affairs are unlikely to be a top priority for the new administration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Personalization
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

29. Hybrid Threats and the Role of the Far Right

Author:
Daniela Pisoiu
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
On 16 December 2024, the Council of the European Union decided for the first time to sanction a number of individuals and entities as a response to Russian “hybrid activities of various kinds, including the use of coordinated information manipulation and interference.” (Council of the EU 2024) The malicious activities invoked in the decision mainly relate to disinformation and misinformation campaigns in relation to the war in Ukraine but also include espionage and hate crimes such as the deliberate painting of Stars of David on the streets of Paris in October 2023. Russia’s hybrid war against the EU is not limited to misinformation, disinformation and low-level violence, but has also included sabotage and cyberattacks, as documented in detail in the press. The recent incident whereby power and internet cables were cut in the Baltic Sea by an anchor of a Russia-linked tanker (Bockmann 2024; Rasmussen and Kauranen 2025) is only one example. NATO officials estimate that such attacks have reached levels never seen before, along with numerous foiled plots (Clark 2024). In July 2024, two parcel bombs were detonated—one in a DHL plane in Leipzig and another in a warehouse near Birmingham—while several arson attacks were registered in the UK, Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania and Latvia (Kayali et al. 2024). Some officials would go as far as to call these attacks acts of terrorism (ibid.), in what appears to be an all-out war on several fronts. In the background of this strategic situation in Europe, the recent advances of far-right parties in several key EU members become particularly relevant, especially considering their neutral or even positive attitudes towards Russia. While Hungary repeatedly opposed EU sanctions against Russia in the context of its aggression war in Ukraine, far-right parties in Austria and Germany consistently argue for a ‘neutral’ approach towards the war or even against their countries’ support for Ukraine (Hasselbach C. 2024; Lindorfer and Gebhart 2024). Russian overt and covert funding of far-right parties and actors in Europe has been clearly evidenced and analyzed as a tool to undermine liberal democracy in Europe and as “a reward for ideological alignment with Moscow and an incentive to advance Russian interests in the West.” (Datta 2022) Interference in national elections is a particularly effective and worrisome form of Russian hybrid warfare that has already occurred in Europe at least twice last year. According to a press release of the European Parliament in October 2024, Russia conducted a number of destabilizing actions in Moldova in order to influence the national vote through voter fraud schemes, cyberattacks and information warfare. For example, authorities foiled a voter fraud scheme involving “$15 million being transferred to 130,000 Moldovans as part of a voter bribery operation”. (European Parliament, 2024) Interestingly, and in spite of the overwhelming evidence presented, a resolution issuing a warning against Russian interference was met with 53 votes against and 104 abstentions (ibid.). The Romanian presidential election at the end of 2024 was also marked by strong Russian interference, again in support of an anti-EU and pro-Russian actor, this time also with clear far-right tendencies. Presidential candidate Calin Georgescu, having risen from 1% support to first ranked after the first round of presidential elections, publicly praised the Romanian fascist organization Iron Guard—as well as others responsible for assassinations and the systematic killing of Jews during World War II—and openly collaborates with alleged current Iron Guard members (Pro TV 2024). Sociolinguistic analysis furthermore concluded that his discourses heavily rely on the Iron Guard, but also communist rhetoric (Benea 2024). Public statements in relation to the war in Ukraine resemble the tenor of far-right parties in Germany and Austria in terms of advancing a neutral stance towards the war and promoting ‘peace’ (Ardelean 2024). On the background of previous activities in the esoteric scene, other statements advanced various conspiracy, New Age–colored theories, including those concerning a faked moon-landing, the energetic power of the pyramids, and an alternative chemical composition of water (Barbuta 2024). The Romanian presidential elections were canceled by the Constitutional Court after a number of declassified documents showed massive foreign interference through several hybrid tactics, namely cyber-attacks, sabotage, and disinformation, as well as various breaches of electoral legislation (Costita et al. 2024). The tactics used closely resembled the ones employed prior to the elections in Moldova and to the war in Ukraine. For example, according to documents released by the Romanian Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia considers Romania as an enemy state that poses a threat through its NATO membership, and which constitutes ‘competition’ for Russia in Moldova. The scope of Russian hostile actions included propaganda and disinformation to affect political and economic preferences, support for anti-EU candidates and anti-establishment movements, affecting trust in national and European institutions, and creating discontent among the population to pressure the government towards changing its stance on the war in Ukraine (ibid.). Romanian presidential elections are scheduled to take place again in May 2025. The parliamentary elections in December 2024 failed to produce a rise of far-right/nationalist parties, which overall scored a little over 20% altogether (Digi24 2024), which seems to indicate the powerful effect of hybrid warfare when carefully orchestrated and funded. In the meantime, the public has been made somewhat aware of the online manipulations on social media, but further hostile actions can be expected in Romania and other EU countries. While initial measures have already been taken to address the Russian hybrid threat, further initiatives are needed to strengthen cooperation with social media platforms and to better adapt political communication strategies of mainstream parties to the particularities of social media platforms in order to limit the reach and effect of extremist messaging.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Far Right, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Europe and Romania

30. Uncertainty in Caracas: What Awaits Venezuela's Maduro in his Third Term?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On January 10, 2025, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term. The opposition condemned this event as a "coup," accusing Maduro of election fraud in connection with the presidential elections held on July 28, 2024. In response, the government organized a rally in support of Maduro in the capital. Meanwhile, the opposition staged a protest led by Maria Corina Machado, who made her first public appearance since August 2024.
Topic:
Economics, Elections, Protests, Organized Crime, Social Unrest, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

31. Representación política e identidad local en Ceuta (1975-2023)

Author:
Fernández. Alicia
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
This article proposes a comparative analysis of the Ceuta political arena, as well as a study of the existing political cleavages, the referents involved in the construction of Ceuta's identity, and their current political practices and preferences.
Topic:
Identity, Representation, Elections, Politics, and Community Cleavages
Political Geography:
Ceuta, Spain, North Africa, and Morocco

32. Electoral Management Body Leadership Transitions

Author:
Staffan Darnolf and Rushdi Nackerdien
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
Executive leadership transitions within Election Management Bodies (EMBs) can profoundly impact the credibility and effectiveness of electoral processes. Whether planned or unexpected, leadership changes at the highest level can disrupt institutional continuity, unsettle operational readiness, and undermine public trust. In 2024, India offered a striking example of this dual challenge: just weeks before its general elections,1 the resignation of Election Commissioner occurred just after the planned retirement of another commissioner, leaving only the Chief Electoral Commissioner in place to oversee a complex national vote. 2 This combination of both a foreseeable and a sudden departure placed the EMB in a precarious position at a critical moment.3 Similar risks have emerged in other contexts. In 2018, Lesotho's Independent Electoral Commission saw the dismissal of all three commissioners amid allegations of misconduct, requiring swift intervention to restore institutional legitimacy. That same year in Kenya, three commissioners from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) resigned abruptly due to internal disputes, leaving the body weakened ahead of key electoral processes. In contrast, Australia’s 2024 transition was marked by the orderly retirement of long-serving Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers, whose departure was announced months in advance, allowing for a planned succession. These varied cases illustrate that without dedicated and well-prepared executive transition strategies, EMBs risk not only internal instability but also the broader integrity of the democratic processes they are mandated to protect. This White Paper is a first effort to outline how EMBs can learn from the experiences of their peers when it comes to improving their executive leadership transition process. To date, much of the EMB leadershiprelated research has focused on the appointment process for commissioners and how the process can impact the EMB’s independence, while very limited attention has been paid to executive leadership transitions. Effective transitions contribute significantly to the success of new executives and the overall integrity of the electoral process. This White Paper makes the case that by ensuring that transitions are well-planned, commissioners are better positioned to swiftly and competently take the reins of the EMB and thereby maintain high levels of trust and confidence among stakeholders. This, in turn, reinforces the credibility of elections and the democratic process. Whether the transition is foreseen well in advance or sudden and unexpected, a structured and proactive approach can help EMBs navigate these changes smoothly, ensuring that they continue to uphold their mandate effectively and without jeopardizing public trust.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Global Focus

33. Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections

Author:
Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
A new survey for ECFR reveals people in many countries around the world are upbeat about the second Trump presidency. Many think Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace or reduce tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and US-China relations. In contrast, US allies in Europe and South Korea are notably pessimistic about the incoming president—suggesting a further weakening of the geopolitical “West”. Ukrainians are slightly more positive than not about the impact Trump might have on ending the conflict with Russia. But they are deeply conflicted about what could be an acceptable compromise settlement with Moscow. Europeans will struggle to find internal unity or global power in leading an outright resistance to the new administration. But the survey reveals that many in the world regard the EU as a player equal to the US and China—a strength European leaders should draw on as they enter the turbulent new presidential term. Rather than harking back to a post-cold war liberal order, Europeans should focus on understanding and seeing opportunities in the new world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Elections, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

34. Final Report: 2023 National Elections in Liberia

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
General elections were held in 2023 in Liberia to elect the president, the House of Representatives, and half the Senate. President George Weah was running for a second term. No candidate won a majority in the first round of voting on Oct. 10, which led to a Nov. 14 runoff between Weah and his closest challenger, Joseph Boakai. Boakai defeated Weah by just over one percentage point, and Weah conceded peacefully. In May of 2023, Liberia’s National Elections Commission (NEC) issued an invitation to The Carter Center to observe the election. Funding constraints prevented the Center from deploying a full observation mission. However, to demonstrate international support for democracy in Liberia and to share recommendations for strengthening the electoral process, The Carter Center deployed an international election expert mission led by Ray Kennedy, who also served as electoral analyst. Nicholas Jahr served as deputy team leader and political analyst, and Mariam Tabatadze was the legal analyst. The team was in Liberia from Sept. 25, two weeks prior to the first round of voting, to the end of November, two weeks after the runoff. Given the mission’s size and limited scope, it did not conduct a full observation of voting or make a comprehensive assessment of the election. Rather, the trio of experts focused on the counting and tabulation process and NEC preparations for both rounds of voting. They observed polling stations in Montserrado County—Monrovia, as well as Upper and Lower Montserrado magisterial areas—during both rounds. Liberia’s NEC successfully administered the 2023 elections, including a presidential runoff, despite a tense political climate and severe resource constraints. The 2023 Revised Farmington River Declaration in which 27 of 31 political parties pledged their commitments to peaceful elections served as a useful tool in maintaining a relatively calm atmosphere during the campaign period.2 The NEC maintained its credibility through a closely contested first round that saw the difference in votes between the first-place and second-place candidates come down to less than half a percentage point, with nearly 80% of the registered electorate going to the polls, followed by a second round in which the difference was less than 2%, with 66% of the electorate casting ballots. The NEC’s strong performance is notable in the current regional and subregional context and positions Liberia to serve as a model for promoting political stability through professionally administered elections if there is the political will to continue to do so. Nonetheless, political will has been a recurring problem in Liberia in relation to elections: For example, despite repeated calls for action, elected leaders over the past 20 years have failed to effectively address the issue of including female candidates on party lists. Likewise, leaders have failed to ensure that electoral districts comply with constitutional requirements to provide equal representation, with many electoral districts dating from 2005 and reflecting enormous disproportionality. Given its record of successfully administering elections in 2005, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2020, as well as various by-elections, despite declining levels of international support, expectations for the NEC have risen. Still, financial constraints and other limits on its independence have hindered the NEC’s ability to make further progress in professionalizing the institution and consolidating its reputation.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

35. Guyana General Election Preliminary Statement

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Carter Center election observation mission has been in Guyana since late June following an invitation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. The mission is led by Jason Carter, chairperson of The Carter Center Board of Trustees and grandson of the late U.S. President Jimmy Carter. On election day, 47 observers from 21 countries visited 234 polling stations across Guyana’s 10 regions to observe voting and counting. Carter Center observers continue to assess the conclusion of counting and vote tabulation and will remain in Guyana to observe the postelection environment. All assessments are made in accordance with international standards for elections, and the observation mission was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Guyana

36. The Spitzenkandidat: Time to rethink a failing democratic experiment

Author:
Eric Maurice
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Hailed as a breakthrough for EU democracy when it was first introduced in 2014, the Spitzenkandidat system has since failed to fulfil the promises made to European citizens. The system, based on an interpretation of Article 17.7 of the treaty on the European Union that stipulates how the Commission president is (s)elected, dictates that the lead candidate of the European party which obtains the most votes in the European elections should become European Commission president and was used in the election of Commission presidents Jean-Claude Junker and Ursula von der Leyen. This paper argues that the Spitzenkandidat system has not contributed to deepening the pan-European political debate, reinforcing the political legitimacy of EU institutions, or increasing the accountability of the European Commission to the European Parliament. On the contrary, the way that European political parties and members of the European Parliament have implemented the system has led to a more powerful and partisan Commission, as well as a weaker Parliament with less oversight powers. And while the European Parliament—engaged in an institutional competition with the European Council—has used the lead candidate experiment to establish a parliamentary government at EU level, this has created ambiguities over the form of government the EU should have and where legitimacy should derive from. On 18 July 2024, a majority in the European Parliament re-elected Ursula von der Leyen, the lead candidate of the European People’s Party, as Commission president. A year later, the Commission’s agenda does not reflect the political balance of the so-called ‘Von der Leyen coalition’ that backed her election, which proves that the Commission is not politically accountable to the Parliament. The first anniversary of her re-election is an opportunity to draw lessons from the Spitzenkandidat experiment and start rethinking how it can deliver on its democratic promises.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Citizenship, Participation, European Parliament, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

37. Rethinking Ethiopia's National Dialogue

Author:
Amanuel Dessalegn Gedebo
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Ethiopia is entering a critical period ahead of its 2026 general elections, marked by intensifying armed conflicts, shrinking political space, and a faltering economy. In this context, the government’s flagship National Dialogue process, intended to foster consensus on divisive national issues, risks becoming mere window dressing. While the Dialogue Commission has made progress in convening political actors, its credibility is undermined by the exclusion of key opposition and armed groups, as well as concerns over its independence. This policy brief examines whether the National Dialogue, in its current form, can meaningfully address Ethiopia’s deepening political crisis. It explores the interplay between ongoing civil wars in Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray, the government’s increasingly repressive tactics, and the limitations of the dialogue process. The brief argues that without urgent reforms to ensure inclusiveness and political openness, the National Dialogue may further entrench instability rather than resolve it. It concludes with recommendations for the Ethiopian government and its international partners, including the EU and the Netherlands, on how to recalibrate their approach to support a more credible and constructive path forward.
Topic:
Civil War, Elections, Domestic Politics, Instability, Fragmentation, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

38. Digital Technologies in the Election Cycle – The Case of Albanian Parliamentary Elections 2025

Author:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
As digital platforms and AI reshape societies worldwide, their impact on elections is increasingly profound. This brief explores how digital tools were used in Albania’s 2025 Parliamentary Elections, examining the roles of the Central Election Committee, political parties, candidates, and civil society. While technology offers opportunities for voter education, transparency, and participation, it also brings risks such as misinformation, unethical campaigning, and gaps in legal oversight. Drawing on international examples and Albania’s own experience, the brief highlights the need for robust safeguards, legislative alignment with EU standards, and strengthened public awareness to ensure digital means strengthen rather than undermines democratic processes.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, Parliament, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Albania

39. Lessons in Resilience: Moldova’s Response to Russia’s Hybrid Interference

Author:
Alina Doroftei
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Following the pro-EU outcome of the 2024 presidential election and constitutional referendum, Russia intensified its hybrid campaign against Moldova for the 2025 parliamentary elections. The aim was clear: destabilize the government, weaken public trust in democratic processes, derail Moldova’s EU accession path, and bring to power pro-Moscow actors. Russia deployed a broad set of tactics, including political proxies, oligarchic networks, disinformation, illicit financing, cyberattacks, and attempts at street-level disruption. Despite the sophistication of these measures and the outsourcing to third-country actors, Moldova’s institutions, civil society, and media responded decisively through rapid exposure, dismantling of interference networks, and transparent public communication. The country’s international partners played an important role in bolstering its resilience. The success of the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity, which won another parliamentary majority, if reduced, dealt a heavy blow to Moscow and its allied oligarchs. Russia’s interference was part of a long-term multi-layered destabilization campaign abusing democratic freedoms. At its core, it sought to normalize the perception that Moldova could not conduct a fair, sovereign vote while empowering pro-Russia or anti-establishment forces. Ultimately, the strategy relied on mercenaries, corrupt networks, and short-term political technologies that lacked broad appeal. Moldova’s legislative and institutional reforms curbing illicit financing and safeguarding electoral integrity blunted these tactics, although uneven judicial interventions related to the exclusion of certain parties also risked casting a shadow over the process. There are now three main priorities for Moldova’s democracy. First, Moldova must consolidate institutional readiness against hybrid threats and restore public trust, especially in the judiciary. The swift interagency response around the elections should be developed into a permanent, institutionalized framework. Clearly defined roles for the Supreme Security Council, the Strategic Communication Centre, and the Crisis Management Centre are essential. Second, the fight against polarization and erosion of public trust must be intensified. Strengthening communication capacities, working with civil society experts, promoting digital literacy, and cooperating with independent watchdogs and platforms are all needed to counter disinformation and coordinated inauthentic behavior. There is a risk of civic pluralism shrinking under the pressure of malicious lawsuits, polarization, and economic constraints. Platforms could be established that provide civic actors with timely access to legal aid, cyber defense, and more sustainable funding. Third, international engagement with Moldova must be sustained and predictable. Following the successful completion of its EU accession screening in September, negotiations need to be fasttracked. With US assistance cut, the EU and other donors need to step in more consistently, focusing on long-term core funding for civil society organizations and media. Moldova’s experience should also inform EU-wide resilience mechanisms, including developing new bilateral and cross-border cooperation targeting mainly inauthentic online behavior and illegal political financing. Moldova’s elections have showed that determined institutions, an active civil society, and international solidarity can resist Russia’s hybrid campaigns. Yet resilience remains fragile. Sustained reforms, economic development, societal cohesion, and long-term donor commitment are indispensable for consolidating Moldova’s democratic path and for ensuring stability in a region that remains a target of Moscow’s disruptive strategies.
Topic:
Security, Elections, European Union, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Moldova

40. Don’t Be Deceived by Reported Electoral Turnout: Analyzing Iraq’s Elections by the Numbers

Author:
Munqith Dagher
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
By comparing the outcome of Iraq's recent elections with the country's demographic trends, a clear difference emerges between the proportion of Iraqis whose votes are represented in the new parliament and the Iraqi population writ large. The Iraqi parliamentary elections held on November 11, 2025 marked a pivotal turning point in the history of the post-2003 Iraqi state. At first glance, these elections reversed a trend of political disengagement; the number of parliamentary candidates increased significantly from previous elections (7,926 candidates competed for 329 parliamentary seats), alongside a massive increase in electoral spending estimated at billions of dollars and an increase in the voter participation rate that defied expectations. However, simply reading the total figures published by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) without delving into the underlying details can give false impressions and inaccurate conclusions about what Iraq’s latest elections mean for the political preferences of Iraqis.
Topic:
Demographics, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

41. Iraq's Pivotal Parliamentary Election

Author:
Mina Al-Oraibi, Munqith Dagher, and James Jeffrey
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Two regional political experts join a former U.S. ambassador to discuss how the final campaign push is shaping up and what the outcome could hold for U.S. interests.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

42. Funding in the Shadow of Conflict: AIPAC’s Financial Influence on US Congress Post-2023 Israel-Hamas War

Author:
Ömer Naim Küçük
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has been a key player in mobilizing support for Israel’s foreign policy within the US Congress, especially during regional conflicts. While studies have examined the influence of the pro-Israeli lobbies’ donations on US policymakers, the strategic allocation of these funds remains less explored. This study addresses that gap by analyzing factors that influenced variations in AIPAC donations to US Congress members following the 2023 Israel-Hamas war. The findings reveal two main determinants: Congress members' sponsorship of pro-Israel bills and the electoral competition in their constituencies. Those actively supporting pro-Israel legislation receive more financial contributions, indicating a link between legislative support and financial incentives. Additionally, members facing strong electoral competition attract more donations, suggesting AIPAC’s targeted investment in politically secure candidates. This research highlights how the Israeli lobby strategically uses financial contributions to shape US foreign policy, particularly in the context of Israel's military engagements.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Lobbying, Congress, Foreign Influence, 2023 Gaza War, and AIPAC
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America

43. Electoral Dynamics in post-2003 Iraq: Systemic Reforms, Security Challenges, and External Influence

Author:
Fatih Oğuzhan İpek
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iraq’s political trajectory has been shaped by systemic reforms, security challenges, and external interventions. Parliamentary elections serve as a key measure of Iraq’s democratic governance, revealing persistent issues such as electoral system debates, pre-election violence, political fragmentation, and foreign influence from actors like the US and Iran. Low voter turnout, weak election security, and recurring allegations of fraud have further eroded public trust. The protracted government formation process, driven by sectarian divisions and external meddling, has reinforced political instability. This study examines these patterns by using the process tracing method to provide a comprehensive understanding of Iraq’s electoral landscape and its broader implications for governance. The election process is divided into three timelines and analyzed before, during, and after the elections. Drawing on news and reports on Iraq as well as speeches by Iraqi figures, the study argues that seven patterns embedded in systemic reforms, security challenges, and external interventions have overwhelmed Iraq’s electoral processes and democratic governance since 2003.
Topic:
Security, Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, Parliament, and Ali al-Sistani
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

44. Diaspora’s political participation in Cameroon’s elections:Between aspirations for alternation and continuity

Author:
Ngo Tong Chantal Marie, Théophile Nguimfack, and Guy Beaudry Jengu Jengu
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The results of the presidential election as proclaimed the 27 October 2025 by the ConstitutionalCouncil, gave Paul Biya victory with 53,66% of votes cast including diaspora. The diasporaaccording to the Electoral Code, designates “ Cameroonian citizens settled or residingabroad ” . Under Article 271 of the Electoral Code , “ Cameroonian citizens settl ed or residing abroad shall exercise their right to vote by participating in the election of the President of the Republic andin the referendum s ” . Thus, Cameroonians abroad are only entitled to participate in two elections:the presidential election and the referendums. Since 2011, they participated to three presidentialelections: 2011, 2018 and 2025. Compared to the 2018 presidential election where there was 6667 754 voters registered and 3 537 965 voters cast , and Paul Biya won in diaspora with largestscores , in 2025, the candidate of the opposition Issa Tchiroma won in every zone of election indiaspora, a victory reflecting diaspora dissatisfaction with the incumbent government . The highestscores of Issa Tchiroma in diaspora reflected the mind of voters which claim for a political changeand the rise of a new generation of leaders. But despite this sanction of diaspora, Paul Biya wasreelected and it is really difficult to expected a substantial change in the governance of thecountry. Nevertheless, the diaspora’s call for change was clear, yet within Cameroon many voices still supported continuity. With Biya’s reelection, which expectations for diaspora? Whichperspectives for the next presidential election in 2032? Given their limited electoral weight, thediaspora must reorganize its struggle through lobbying, civil society, and think tanks to influence decision-making process and achieve meaningful policy change.
Topic:
Diaspora, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

45. Political Order in Post 2004 Afghanistan

Author:
Nighat Mehroze Chishti and Shabir Amhad Khan
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
After the ouster of Taliban in 2001, the international community was faced with the daunting task of bringing stability and lasting peace to the war-torn Afghanistan. Constitution was one and perhaps the most important starting point in this regard and Bonn Agreement was the first step towards this goal. The constitution of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 2004 was drafted with considerable external involvement. Although this constitution has almost all features of a democratic constitution, its practical implementation is far from satisfactory. The 2014 Presidential elections were followed by the creation of a National Unity Government (NUG) with power sharing between the President and the Chief Executive Officer, a newly created post under the NUG Agreement, brokered with active intervention of the United States. This new set up was to be given constitutional cover through a Constitutional amendment within two years. But it never happened. Lastly, the results of 2019 elections were fiercely challenged by the runner up candidate Mr. Abdullah Abdullah, who declared a parallel government and took the oath as President of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in Mazar Sharif, the same day as did Dr. Ashraf Ghani, the winning candidate at Kabul. In 2021, after the retake over of Afghanistan, the Taliban declared that the “Islamic Emirate” has been reinstated thus discarding the set up provided under the Constitution of 2004(Rahimi, 2022). This research attempts to answer the main question as to why this Constitution could not achieve the desired results i.e. stability and prosperity in Afghanistan? Pragmatism as research philosophy being followed, allowing the researcher to use both subjective and objective interpretation to do content analysis.
Topic:
Elections, Taliban, Constitution, Domestic Politics, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

46. The Myth of the Monolith: The Latino Vote in U.S. Elections

Author:
María Teresa Kumar
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
María Teresa Kumar is the co-founder and President of Voto Latino, the nation’s largest Latino voter registration and youth advocacy organization. Under her leadership, Voto Latino has registered nearly 2 million voters, with 79 percent casting ballots. The organization has pioneered the use of technology, social media, and influencers to expand the Latino electorate in key battleground states and combat disinformation, reaching over 6 million Americans monthly. A recognized political strategist, Kumar has advised President Obama’s Task Force on 21st Century Policing and serves on the National Task Force on Election Crises. She is an Emmy-nominated MSNBC analyst and serves on the boards of Steve Madden, Emily’s List, and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. A first-generation Harvard Kennedy School graduate, she has been named among Bloomberg’s 100 Influential Latinos and Washingtonian’s Top Political Influencers.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, Interview, and Latinos
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

47. How Democracies Defend Themselves Against Authoritarianism

Author:
Robert Benson
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
Democracies facing authoritarian threats from within have found ways to push back by strengthening institutions, reinforcing democratic norms, and building popular resistance against encroaching autocracy. Understanding these strategies is vital to learning how to fight back.
Topic:
Human Rights, National Security, Authoritarianism, Reform, Elections, Democracy, Transparency, Voting Rights, Donald Trump, Domestic Policy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, India, Israel, North America, and United States of America

48. Four lenses for observing the second Trump administration: Reflecting uncertainty

Author:
Charly Salonius-Pasternak and Ville Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The global security landscape has evolved in the four years since President Donald Trump’s first term. The new administration aims to usher in a “Golden Age of America”, with impacts on domestic politics and society, as well as foreign policy. Unlike in 2017, the incoming administration appears better prepared, with outlined plans and key appointments. However, chaotic decision-making processes and an emphasis on loyalty to Trump are likely to introduce unpredictability into governance and policymaking. The administration’s unified domestic and foreign policy strategy can be viewed through four lenses: national sovereignty, economic nationalism, devolution, and the unmooring of power. The Trump administration is likely to embrace disruption and chaos to achieve revolutionary rather than evolutionary change. This thinking draws on tech-inspired startup culture and generational-revolutionary philosophies, which perceive the US as being in a moment of crisis that will usher in a new historical epoch. Key uncertainties remain regarding the administration’s long-term effects on democracy, alliances, and great power competition, particularly concerning trade-security linkages and alliance relations with Europe and Asia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Donald Trump, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

49. Germany’s ‘perfect storm’: A structural crisis for the EU’s engine?

Author:
Marco Siddi, Tuomas Iso-Markku, Harald Müller, and Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Germany is facing significant challenges in its foreign and economic policies, most notably the loss of Russian energy supplies, managing the economic partnership with China amid growing geopolitical tensions and, more recently, the prospect of an unfriendly US administration under Donald Trump. Domestically, Berlin is grappling with the consequences of long-term underinvestment in public infrastructure, limited innovation capacity, and sluggish productivity growth. Anti-establishment parties, particularly the far right, have gained popularity, limiting options for coalition governments after the February 2025 election. At the EU level, Germany’s leadership and its partnership with France have suffered setbacks. At the same time, no credible alternatives have emerged that could potentially replace the leading role of the Franco-German tandem. The next German government will have to contend with a deteriorating economic situation, as well as the long-term foreign policy challenges faced by the outgoing government.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

50. Moldova’s EU Path: Between Moscow’s Shadow and Brussels’ Promises

Author:
Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In the ongoing confrontation between the European Union and Russia, the Republic of Moldova occupies a critical—though often overlooked—position. While not as militarily pivotal as Ukraine, Moldova’s struggle is no less consequential: it is a contest over national orientation and the future of the European order. Moldova’s plural identity makes it especially vulnerable to Russian interference, complicating its EU accession process and straining internal cohesion. The country’s trajectory mirrors the broader dilemma facing post-Soviet states still defining themselves amid renewed geopolitical rivalry between East and West. Moldova’s future will depend on the decisions of its leaders and electorate, the course of the war in Ukraine, and the EU’s readiness to honour its commitment to membership. The 28 September 2025 parliamentary elections will reveal whether Moldova’s leadership retains a popular mandate to pursue the European path. This policy brief outlines key aspects of the current situation and sets out how the EU can help safeguard the integrity of Moldova’s upcoming elections and support its pro-European trajectory amid heightened geopolitical risk.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Foreign Interference, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Moldova, and Eastern Europe