Topic: Economics - CIAO Search Results

6401. The International Investment Position of the United States in 1997

Author:: Russel B. Scholl
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The net international investment position of the United States—U.S. assets abroad less foreign assets in the United States—at yearend 1997 was a negative $1,223.6 billion with direct investment valued at the current cost of tangible assets, and it was a negative $1,322.5 billion with direct investment valued at the current market value of owners' equity (table A, chart 1). For both measures, the net positions were more negative in 1997 than they were in 1996.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

6402. The Domestic Orientation of Production and Sales by U.S. Manufacturing Affiliates of Foreign Companies

Author:: William J. Zeile
Publication Date:: 04-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: Since the surge in foreign direct investment in the United States in the late 1980's, much attention has focused on the role of foreign-owned firms in the U.S. economy, particularly in manufacturing. A question that is frequently posed concerns the degree to which U.S. affiliates of foreign companies are integrated into the U.S. economy through their sourcing behavior and value-added activity. A related question is whether U.S. manufacturing affiliates in comparison with domestically owned firms are more oriented toward producing for the U.S. market or for their home-country and other foreign markets.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

6403. Theoretical Explanations of Trade Competitiveness and a North American Application

Author:: Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: How do we reconcile economic competitiveness with trade regionalism? This exploratory investigation first takes stock of how competitiveness has been defined by both economists and political scientists, then extracts an inclusive model from the different literatures, and finally broadly assesses business transactions and trends across North America using that model. Beginning with the Ricardo-Viner and Hecksher-Olin explanations, various types of competitiveness articulated by Michael Porter, Mancur Olson, and David Mares are subsequently brought in. preliminary findings presented as hypotheses for future testing, suggest that: that evaporation of hegemony has resulted in multiple claims to competitiveness across North America, policy convergences are more widespread and common than ever before, regional-level cooperation provides an efficient means for all three countries to offset global competitiveness, and domestic interests, though still a potential veto force, are slowly embracing, rather than opposing, supranational efforts.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

6404. The Role of the Private Sector in the Evolution of US Technology Policy

Author:: Judith Mariscal and John B. Horrigan
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: Technology policy in the United States has undergone a dramatic transformation in the past ten to twelve years, as the government has increasingly played an active role in the high-tech sector and as the sector itself has faced growing competition from foreign competitors. Truths (or apparent truths) which once were unquestioned—that the U.S. government should only intervene in technology for national security reasons, that entrepreneurial high-tech firms operate best as "lone rangers" in the marketplace—have been closely scrutinized. The result of such scrutiny is that government and industry have changed their perceptions about their roles in a world in which the economic and competitive environment shifts rapidly. Another outcome is that technology policy has taken on increasing importance in U.S. policy circles. We see in the Clinton Administration plans to promote the information superhighway, proposals to overhaul the way in which the telecommunications industry is regulated, support for government-industry research consortia, closer linkage of trade and technology policy, and in general a much closer industry government relationship with the high-tech sector.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

6405. Banking Sector Development in Kazakhstan

Author:: Eugene Spiro
Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The EastWest Institute convened in partnership with the Kazakhstan Institute of Management, Economics and Strategic Research (KIMEP) International Conference on Banking Policies on December 9-12, 1998. The purpose of the conference was to present Kazakh officials, academicians and bankers with practices (best and otherwise) in CEE and the West on bank privatization and reduction of the state's role in banking; costs and benefits of foreign strategic investment in the banking sector; and issues related to bank supervision, regulation and deposit insurance.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Kazakhstan and Asia

6406. Strategic Images: Perceptions of Russia in the USA and of America in Russia

Author:: Dag Hartelius and Natasha Randall
Publication Date:: 11-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: Over the last year we have witnessed a deteriorating climate in Russian-Western relations - or at least this has been the perception. The Russian financial crisis has accelerated the trend in Russia to blame the West - in particular the US - for their troubles. In America and Europe a new debate has been spawned on what kind of Russia we are now dealing with. Old truths, or old perceptions, are being questioned and relations are being reassessed.
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, America, Europe, and Asia

6407. EWI Baltic Initiative Fund

Author:: Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: In this report we wish to provide a brief account of what the EWI Baltic Initiative Fund has accomplished in its first year, and of some of the things we are hoping to achieve in the future. Our experience over the past eighteen months has convinced all of us at EWI that there is a job to be done, and that we have a real contribution to make. The very favorable responses we continue to receive from our Baltic partners encourage us to believe that our program is indeed worthwhile and fills an important need.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Maryland

6408. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 5: September 9, 1998

Author:: Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The Communist dominated Duma sent a stern message to President Yelstin on September 7th by rejecting his nominee, Viktor Chernomyrdin, for the second time. The vote was 273 against and 138 for (with one abstention). While Chernomyrdin's showing improved substantially from the Duma's first ballot, he still fell far short of the 226 votes needed for Duma approval. Furthermore, his gains came largely from Zhirinovsky's nationalist faction, which has a crass history of trading votes to “the highest bidder.” Yelstin's opposition, on the other hand, benefited from the support of independent deputies comprising a group called “Regions of Russia”: their approval of Chernomyrdin dropped from 86% to 50% in the second round.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

6409. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 4: August 31, 1998

Author:: Allen Collinsworth, Robert Orttung, Rado Petkov, and Rick Petree
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: At approximately 12.30 p.m. EST today, the Duma rejected Chernomyrdin's nomination as Prime Minister by an open ballot vote of 251-94 (with 105 abstaining). 226 votes are needed to confirm him. Chernomyrdin's own Our Home Is Russia party provided most of his support (64 votes). Zhirinovsky's party, the Liberal Democrats, abstained (49 votes). Analysts underscored the weakness of support for Chernomyrdin by noting that, in the first round of voting on the nomination of Prime Minister Kiriyenko five months ago, Kiriyenko polled 143 votes in favor. This was in secret balloting, however, which to some extent invalidates the comparison.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

6410. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 3: August 27, 1998

Author:: Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The latest private reports from Moscow indicate that the Duma is very likely to reject Viktor Chernomyrdin's candidacy for Prime minister next week. Tomorrow, Aug. 28 th , at 3:00 pm, the Duma and the Federation Council will meet to decide whether to recommend a vote on Chernomyrdin's candidacy. Whereas Chernomyrdin's chances are bleak, the fluid nature of current Russian political situation makes it impossible to firmly rule out his confirmation as prime minister, a post which he very much wants.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

6411. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 2: August 25, 1998

Author:: Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: Since our Aug. 20th report, the situation in Russia has developed dramatically. On Friday (Aug. 21st), the lower house of the Russian parliament (the Duma) overwhelmingly called for Yeltsin's resignation and changes in the government and the leadership of the central bank. The Duma also passed a non-binding resolution demanding nationalization of some banks and restriction of foreign participation in domestic capital markets. In response, the RTS index of leading Russian shares fell 5.56% to 81.76 on negligible trading volume of $4.2 million. Central bank head Dubinin announced plans to activate Russia's precious metals reserves (approximately $5 billion of $15.1 billion total foreign exchange reserves) to support the ruble. On Sunday, Aug. 23rd, in an action anticipated in our Aug. 17th report, Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and installed in his place Viktor Chernomyrdin.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

6412. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 1: August 20, 1998

Author:: Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: Russian capital markets were already in what George Soros described as a “financial meltdown in . . . its terminal phase” on August 12th. Since then, capital markets have deteriorated significantly in reaction to measures announced by the Russian Government on Monday, Aug. 17th (summarized in Section II below). IEWS is actively evaluating the nature and extent of the crisis and trying to project its likely course.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

6413. Subregional Relations in the Southern Tier: Prospects for Development

Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: Doubts were expressed as to the extent one could define the Caucasus and Central Asia as a single region, particularly for the purposes of exploring the potential for subregional cooperation to develop among its constituent states. External considerations (complex relationship between Russia and the states involved; presence of other outside actors; energy transit perspectives; influence of external conflict, i.e. Afghanistan) may point towards consideration of the Southern Tier as one region. However, internal perspectives, geographical, historical, political and cultural, suggest that treating subregionalism separately in the Caucasus and Central Asia might be a more realistic and potentially fruitful approach.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: New York, Europe, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Maryland

6414. Deposit Insurance Funds: An Instrument of Banking Stability and Issues of Authority, Information and Effectiveness

Author:: Eugene Spiro
Publication Date:: 03-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The EastWest Institute is interested in the issue of banking supervision as one of the primary goals of our Economics Program since 1990 has been to support the establishment of a reformed, market-based banking system in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Former Soviet Union (FSU). As an integral component of our broader work in providing expert support to commercial bank managers and economic policymakers on the concrete aspects of implementing reform-oriented practices and strategies, we see the underlying stability and transparency of the banking system to be of critical importance. In Hungary as elsewhere, banks are indispensable to the smooth functioning of the economy, and the EWI has long subscribed to the view that the banking sector (e.g. in the context of privatisation) is a 'special' sector and requires special treatment.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, and Maryland

6415. Globalisation: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:: G.B. Madison
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:: Globalization is a multifaceted phenomenon. In this paper I seek to discern some of the challenges it poses, as well as some of the opportunities it offers. To this end, attention is focused on three major aspects of globalization: the economic, the cultural, and the political. Particular consideration is given to the political-economic lessons to be learned from the recent East Asian financial (and economic) crisis; the homogenizing and civilizing ramifications of globalization in the realm of culture; and the relation between economic globalization, the threat it poses to the traditional notion of national sovereignty, and the prospects for the development of civil society, the rule of law, and democratic governance. The paper concludes by arguing that, as a result of the emerging global economy, we are witnessing the emergence of a new form of capitalism, qualitatively different from both 19th-century laissez-faire capitalism and 20th-century “managed” capitalism.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and Markets
Political Geography:: East Asia and Asia

6416. Science, Technology, and the Law

Author:: Peter Huber, Susan Raymond, Rodney W. Nichols, Kenneth Dam, Kenneth R. Foster, George Ehrlich, Debra Miller, Alan Charles Raul, Ronald Bailey, and Alex Kozinski
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: New York Academy of Sciences
Abstract:: As science and technology push the edges of understanding, innovation makes the once unimaginable merely quotidian. The flow—the torrent—of change inevitably meets the stock of laws and regulations that structure society. And, often, the legal system and the judiciary must cope with the resulting swirls, eddies, and, at times, whirlpools of ethical controversy and economic and societal choice.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Law, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, New York, and America

6417. Science and Technology for African Development: Partnerships in a Global Economy

Author:: Soodursun Jugessur, Susan U. Raymond, Stephen Chandiwana, Clive Shiff, Pieter J.D. Drenth, D. N. Tarpeh, Iba Kone, Jacques Gaillard, and Roland Waast
Publication Date:: 03-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: New York Academy of Sciences
Abstract:: This paper examines the eureka factor in science based development and underscores the increasing concern that Africa lags behind in S due to political and social instability coupled by low investments in technologies. The paper emphasises that African science should come up with a decisive policy for investment in new style education and capacity building for S that is relevant to the African experience and addresses problems of real concern to the community. Science led development in Africa should reduce replication of foreign technologies and invest in social capital of its scientists and its R institutions for sustainable economic development. The aim of the paper is not to offer prescriptive solutions but to highlight areas which should stimulate debate in small working groups examining how Africa can learn from its own experience as well as that of other nations in developing an appropriate system of innovation for science led development.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, Government, Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Africa and United States

6418. Women Coping with Crisis: Social Consequences of Export-Led Industrialization in the Dominican Republic

Author:: Helen I. Safa
Publication Date:: 04-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: What are the social consequences of export-led industrialization, and are they a deterrent to sustainable development? This paper explores these questions by examining the link between export-led industrialization, the feminization of labor, and the growth of female-headed households in the Dominican Republic in a community that has undergone a marked shift in economic base from sugar production, employing mostly men, to export manufacturing, employing mostly women. Employment in export manufacturing gives women greater economic autonomy and greater leverage in the household, which, combined with deterioration in male employment, raises women's resistance to marriage and weakens the role of the male breadwinner. While female-headed households have increased in number, the economic and emotional support provided by consanguineal kin, often living in extended families, has enabled these households to function quite adequately. Under these circumstances, the female-headed household should not be seen as a deterrent to sustainability.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:: Caribbean

6419. Global Economics and Local Politics in Trinidad's Divestment Program

Author:: Anthony P. Maingot
Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This study focuses on the complex interaction between local political, social, and economic exigencies and the imperatives of the global economy in Trinidad. Local systems operate according to the perceived needs of their elites and the moral codes and biases of the political culture. In Trinidad, the dominant biases have to do with racial competition. For more than five decades, efforts have been made to use the state to extend economic rights to underprivileged Afro-Trinidadians. In the mid-1980s, however, a shift in macroeconomic thinking led to liberalization and a growing gap between the traditional nationalist/statist ideology and the actual decisions of political elites. This paper explores this unresolved incongruity through a case study of Petrotrin, the national petroleum company that oversees the fast-growing oil and gas sector.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Caribbean

6420. Democracy and Reform in Cardoso's Brazil: Caught Between Clientelism and Global Markets?

Author:: Willian C. Smith and Nizar Messari
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper explores President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's record and his attempt to seek reelection on October 4 over the challenge of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, candidate of the Workers' Party (PT) and the left. These events are examined in the context of a central, inescapable dilemma of contemporary Brazilian politics: how to reconcile the exigencies of the market and globalization with the equally compelling needs to promote democracy while combating poverty, violence, and social exclusion. The paper concludes with analyses of various alternative politico-economic scenarios for Brazil following the October elections.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Brazil

6421. Stabilization and Its Discontents: Argentina's Economic Restructuring in the 1990s

Author:: Manuel Pastor and Carol Wise
Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Even as multilateral officials adamantly oppose the implementation of currency boards as a way of stabilizing exchange rates and inflation in the wake of the recent Asian financial crisis, Argentina remains committed to such an arrangement. This paper explores the political and economic conditions that prompted Argentine policymakers to adopt an economic management model in 1991 that is generally considered to be less flexible than other approaches now prevailing in Latin America. Short-term outcomes as well as longer-term patterns of economic restructuring now underway in Argentina are analyzed. The authors argue that, despite considerable success on the macro-stabilization front, policymakers still have their work cut out in terms of designing a set of second-phase measures to facilitate smoother adjustment at the microeconomic level.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Latin America

6422. Maintaining prosperity in an ageing society

Publication Date:: 06-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: Population ageing in OECD countries over the coming decades could threaten future growth in prosperity. Governments should take action now across a broad range of economic, financial and social policies to ensure the foundations for maintaining prosperity in an ageing society. While reforms are already underway, much deeper reforms will be needed to meet the challenges of population ageing.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

6423. The 1998 Per Jacobsson Lecture: Managing the International Economy in an Age of Globalisation

Author:: Peter D. Sutherland
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Overseas Development Council
Abstract:: Good afternoon. Thank you, Sir Jeremy, for that kind introduction. I am honored, not merely to have been selected to deliver this year's Per Jacobsson lecture, but by the presence of so many distinguished guests. I am also delighted that two previous Per Jacobsson lecturers could be here this afternoon, and I would like to recognize them: Jacques de Larosiere, the former Managing Director of the IMF and more recently the President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and Joseph Yam, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

6424. After the Crisis: The Social Contract and the Middle Class in East Asia

Author:: Nancy Birdsall and Stephan Haggard
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Asian financial crisis put in bold relief two big differences between the Asian and the Western economies. One has been hotly contested, while the other has been virtually ignored.
Topic:: Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: Israel and East Asia

6425. The Case for a Russian Currency Board System

Author:: Steve H. Hanke
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The devaluation of the Russian ruble this year was predictable, especially considering Russia's poor monetary history. State-manipulated money has been a Russian hallmark since the time of Peter the Great and shows that the country's money problems are endemic and do not depend on who controls the central bank. Czarist, Soviet, and post-Soviet governments have used the central bank printing press to finance deficit spending, resulting in high inflation, confiscation of savings, capital controls, or a combination of the three.
Topic:: Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

6426. Time to Terminate the ESF and the IMF

Author:: Anna J. Schwartz
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund are undemocratic institutions unaccountable for their actions. Their current functions have little to do with their original missions. The ESF is used by the executive branch to circumvent Congress in the provision of foreign aid. Its foreign exchange interventions have, in any event, always been wasteful and ineffective at controlling the relative price of the U.S. dollar. The IMF has also been used to provide massive bailouts in the cases of Mexico in 1995 and of Asian countries since 1997. Defenders of the IMF as an international lender of last resort are misinformed since the IMF does not and cannot serve that purpose. Both institutions should be abolished, not reformed, because they are not needed to resolve currency crises and they preclude superior solutions.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, and Mexico

6427. Perspectives From Four Continents: Solving the Global Public Pensions Crisis

Author:: Cato Institute
Publication Date:: 04-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: On December 8-9 the Cato Institute and The Economist cosponsored a conference on the global public pensions crisis at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre in London. Among the speakers were Michael Tanner, director of the Cato Project on Social Security Privatization; Clive Crook, deputy editor of The Economist; Carlos Boloña, former finance minister of Peru; Mukul Asher of the University of Singapore; and Peter Ferrara, chief economist at Americans for Tax Reform and an associate policy analyst at the Cato Institute. Excerpts from their remarks follow.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: London

6428. America's Maligned and Misunderstood Trade Deficit

Author:: Daniel T. Griswold
Publication Date:: 04-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: America's annual trade deficit, already large by historical standards, could reach a new record in 1998, fueling protectionist sentiment in Congress. Political fallout from the trade deficit numbers could impede efforts to reduce barriers to trade in the United States and abroad. Contrary to popular conception, the trade deficit is not caused by unfair trade practices abroad or declining industrial competitiveness at home. Trade deficits reflect the flow of capital across international borders, flows that are determined by national rates of savings and investment. This renders trade policy an ineffective tool for reducing a nation's trade deficit.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

6429. Information Technology and Economic Development: An Introduction to the Research Issues

Author:: Matti Pohjola
Publication Date:: 11-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: There is substantial evidence that new information technologies are in many ways transforming the operations of modern economies. More than half of employees use a computer at work in the most advanced industrial countries. About 10 per cent of the value of all private investment in fixed non-residential capital is devoted to computers and peripheral equipment in the United States and some other economies. This share goes up to 25 per cent when investment in information processing equipment is included. Nevertheless, all spending on information technology, including hardware, software and services, does not amount to more than 3-4 per cent of nominal GDP in these countries. The share is, however, increasing rapidly, indicating that a steady state has not yet been reached.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

6430. Computers and Labour Markets: International Evidence

Author:: Francis Kramarz
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The rapid diffusion of computers has widely changed the consequences of computer use on the labour market. While at the beginning of the eighties knowledge of computers was an obvious advantage in a career, this same knowledge is now so commonplace that the inability to use these tools is widely seen in many industries as a professional handicap. In relation to such drastic transformations, changes in the North American wage structure during the eighties in favour of the better educated have been interpreted by many analysts as evidence of skill-biased technical change. Evidence outside the US, and in particular in Europe, seems to support the idea that similar transformations affected most other labour markets.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

6431. Underdevelopment, Transition and Reconstruction in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Tony Addison
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Reconstructing Africa's war damaged economies is an urgent task. This is especially so in a group of countries - Angola, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, and Mozambique - which must also complete their economic and political transition from state socialism. Somalia, which shares their common history, must eventually be rebuilt. All of these countries must address their deep problems of underdevelopment and poverty. The challenges are therefore three-fold: to overcome underdevelopment, to make the transition from state socialism, and to reconstruct economies and societies.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Somalia, Angola, Eritrea, and Guinea-Bissau

6432. Resource Abundance and Economic Development: Improving the Performance of Resource-Rich Countries

Author:: Richard M. Auty
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Since the 1960s the resource-rich developing economies have under-performed compared with the resource-deficient economies. This paper explains why and outlines the reforms that are required in order to achieve environmentally and socially sustainable resource-rich development. It argues that structural change in the resource-rich countries causes the tradeable sector to shrink vis-à-vis the nontradeables sector (that includes protected manufacturing) in a manner that is not sustainable. This adverse trend in the production structure is associated with policies to close the economy and create discretionary rents behind protective barriers that result in the cumulative misallocation of resources. The build-up of produced capital and skills is slower than in the successful resource-deficient countries. Overall, the inherently slower and less egalitarian economic growth trajectory of the resource-rich countries is intensified and the end result is usually a growth collapse. The collapse causes all forms of capital, including institutional, social and natural capital, to run down. Economic reform is therefore protracted and it may take in excess of one generation to restore sustainable rapid growth. The adverse features of resource-rich development tend to be more pronounced in the smaller countries. They are also heightened where the resource rents accrue mainly to the central government, as in the mineral economies and in the slow-reforming transition economies. Successful reform requires not only appropriate macro and micro policies, but also the construction of institutions to limit the scope for governments to misallocate resources. Part of the explanation for the superior performance of the resource-deficient countries is that their spartan endowment of natural capital acts as a constraint on government failure by placing a premium on the need to nurture scarce resources, including skills, institutions and social capital, and to achieve an efficient allocation of capital.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, Government, and International Political Economy

6433. The Role of Knowledge and Capital in Economic Growth

Author:: Sergio Rebelo
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Starting from the celebrated neoclassical (Solow) model of economic growth, this paper discusses new ideas in growth theory focussing on how to make sustained growth feasible. It first reviews models that broadened the notion of capital to include human capital and the state of technology. These extensions of the neoclassical theory are not very satisfying at a descriptive level because productivity growth is associated with either human or physical capital accumulation in a way that does not interact with the invention of new technologies.
Topic:: Economics and Science and Technology

6434. Assessing South Africa's Growth Strategy

Author:: Jesmond Blumenfeld
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: As South Africa approaches its second inclusive elections in 1999, the government's economic record will come under increasing scrutiny. Against widespread expectations of a post-apartheid transformation in economic performance, the country's achievements in output, investment and employment have been profoundly disappointing. The adoption of a new, and more market- and investor-friendly, macroeconomic strategy in 1996 boosted confidence by promising major structural and policy reforms, but this has since been undermined by failure to meet most of the strategy's targets. In this Briefing Paper, Jesmond Blumenfeld analyses the origins, content and outcomes of the strategy as well as the economic and political dilemmas that it has created.
Topic:: Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: South Africa and New Delhi

6435. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 1998

Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion, which has become the second longest on record. The coincident indicators show aggregate activity rising at a more moderate pace than GDP's rise of 5.6 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. There is no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

6436. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 1998

Publication Date:: 11-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy with bright prospects in 1999. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising between 2.5 and 3 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The economy shows no evidence of cyclical imbalance.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

6437. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 1998

Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators show the 4th quarter of 1998 starting with a relatively slow pace of growth (compared to the coincident index's rise of rise 3.0 percent and GDP's rise of 3.7 percent, annualized, during the first 3 quarters of 1998. The leading indicators show no serious impediments to moderate, or even strong, economic growth in 1999. There is almost no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

6438. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 1998

Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: Both the leading and coincident indexes held steady, while the lagging index fell 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a slowing, but still healthy economy. The coincident indicators suggest the expansion advanced in the 2 to 2.5 percent range in the 3rd quarter of 1998, compared with constant- dollar GDP showing a 3.3 percent increase (annualized). It is premature to predict a recession based on the leading indicators. The lagging indicators have moderated, giving less reason to worry that cyclical imbalances will soon jeopardize the economy's stability.lances could jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

6439. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 1998

Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a 2.5 to 3.0 percent pace (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The lagging indicators suggest a need to be concerned that cyclical imbalances could jeopardize the economy's stability in 1999.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

6440. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1998

Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a moderating economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at faster pace than the latest GDP figures, but slower than the 4th quarter of 1997 and the 1st quarter of 1998. (The coincident index rose 3.1 percent while GDP rose 1.4 percent, annualized, in the 2nd quarter of 1998). A two-month decline in the leading indicators signals slower growth ahead and only a slight risk of a contraction. The lagging indicators show slight evidence of cyclical imbalances that could jeopardize the economyÕs stability.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

6441. The Yen, the Yuan, and the Asian Currency Crisis Changing Fortune between Japan and China

Author:: C.H. Kwan
Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The currency crisis that started in Thailand in the summer of 1997 was followed by repercussions on the currencies of neighboring countries, culminating in a crisis infecting most countries in East Asia. Japan and China, which have developed strong ties with the rest of Asia through trade and investment, have not been exempted from this contagion. This paper looks at the latest currency crisis in Asia from the perspectives of these two regional giants.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Thailand

6442. The Korean Currency Crisis: What Can We Learn From It?

Author:: Sang-Mok Suh
Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Just like many other crises, the Korean currency crisis came suddenly. In mid–November 1997, headlines in the Korean press consisted mostly of presidential election stories. At that time the presidential race was very close; the Grand National Party candidate, Lee Hoi–Chang, was making a dramatic comeback, while the National Congress for New Politics candidate, Kim Dae–jung, was making his best effort to maintain his narrow lead. Thus, when President Kim Young Sam announced on November 19 his decision to fire key economic policy–makers on the grounds of mismanaging the economy, most Koreans were surprised at the news and questioned the president's motivation. Two days later they were completely shocked to learn that the Korean government was asking the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emergency standby loans because the Korean foreign reserve level was very low at $7.3 billion and most foreign financial institutions were unwilling to roll over their short–term loans to Korea.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Israel, East Asia, and Asia

6443. Benefits and Burdens: The Politically Dominated Economics of U.S. Alliances with Japan and Korea

Author:: Charles Wolf and Michele Zanini
Publication Date:: 04-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Alliances are organizations between or among independent entities that concert to produce “collective goods” for the mutual benefit of alliance members. The statement applies whether the alliances are between or among countries, corporations, universities, research centers, or other institutions. Of course, the nature of the collective goods, as well as the membership in the collectivity, differs across these cases. That the goods (or benefits) are “collective” means that their availability to one alliance member (or their production by any member) implies their availability to the other members of the alliance.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Korea

6444. The Costs and Benefits of Korean Unification

Author:: Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Li-gang Liu
Publication Date:: 03-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Existing estimates of the costs of unification are inadequate for a number of reasons. In this paper we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to calculate South Korean and total peninsular income streams under a variety of unification (and non–unification) scenarios. We find that there are scenarios in which the present discounted value of South Korean income is higher with unification than without it. Although lower income groups in South Korea experience reduced incomes under this scenario, with redistribution of the gains, everyone can be made better off. Indeed, this scenario, which involves relatively low levels of South Korean private investment in the North together with relatively high levels of North–South migration, is also the one which generates the highest level of total peninsular income as well. The latter point is critical in that it suggests that there is no necessary conflict between the economic interests of North and South Koreans after unification.
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Israel, East Asia, and Korea

6445. Energy and Security in East Asia

Author:: Michael May
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This study examines the likely security consequences of the continued growth in energy consumption in East Asia, and in particular: The dimensions of that growth which are likely to have an effect on international security. The dependencies and insecurities created by that continued growth. The policy guidance that can be derived for the United States from a review of those dependencies and insecurities.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Energy Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Israel and East Asia

6446. Intermediate Sovereignty As A Basis For Resolving The Kosovo Crisis

Publication Date:: 11-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The International Crisis Group has decided to publish the report, prepared by the Public International Law and Policy Group, as a contribution to the debate on the future status of Kosovo. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position of the International Crisis Group.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

6447. Inventory of a Windfall: Milosevic's Gains from the Kosovo Dialogue

Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: When on 15 May 1998 Slobodan Milosevic met with Ibrahim Rugova it was the first time that the Yugoslav president had met with an Albanian leader from Kosovo in close to a decade. The event, heralding weekly talks between Kosovo's Albanians and the Serbian government, has thus been hailed as a "dramatic turn-about" and "a first step toward peace in Kosovo". However, the fact that, after so many years of stale-mate, some kind of negotiations have begun, should not in itself be a reason for euphoria. Key to the success of any talks is the framework within which they take place. Negotiations concerning the future status of Kosovo may, as a result of the concessions offered to the Yugoslav president, have got off to an inauspicious start.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

6448. Again, the Visible Hand: Slobodan Milosevic's Manipulation of the Kosovo Dispute

Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Kosovo, an impoverished region at the southern tip of Serbia, is drawing ineluctably closer to war with each passing day. By night, men smuggle guns and ammunition from Albania to an Albanian militia determined to wrest Kosovo away from Serbia. The militia's fighters, angered by years of Serbian police violence against Kosovo's 90-percent Albanian majority, have killed Serbian police officers and murdered Albanians deemed to be loyal to the Serbian state.
Topic:: Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

6449. Third Party Arms Transfers: Requirements for the 21st Century

Author:: John D. Macomber and Charles McC. Mathias
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Can the United States collaborate with foreign nations in armaments development and production without jeopardizing US national security? This question - in light of America's global security obligations - demands a satisfactory answer. The economic and political advantages of greater international cooperation are significant. Benefits from cooperation include improved interoperability of weapons and equipment used by US allies and partners in operations with the United States, reduction in production costs, and preservation of a defense industrial base among US allies. Yet, considerations of national security are equally cogent.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: United States and America

6450. Trade Patterns, FDI, and Industrial Restructuring of Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Paolo Guerrieri
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: This paper analyses changes in the trade patterns of Central/Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU), and the potential role in the global/European division of labor of these transforming economies. In the reform period (1989–1995) trade pattern of Central and Eastern Europe has experienced significant changes. The most pronounced trend was the strong expansion of trade with the OECD countries, in particular with the European Union, whereas CMEA intraregional trade literally collapsed. This massive geographical reorientation of trade has determined also significant changes in the commodity composition of trade of CEE in the same period.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

6451. De Gaulle and Europe: Historical Revision and Social Science Theory

Author:: Andrew Moravcsik
Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: The thousands of books and articles on Charles de Gaulle's policy toward European integration, whether written by historians, political scientists, or commentators, universally accord primary explanatory importance to the General's distinctive geopolitical ideology. In explaining his motivations, only secondary significance, if any at all, is attached to commercial considerations. This paper seeks to reverse this historiographical consensus by the four major decisions toward European integration taken under de Gaulle's Presidency: the decisions to remain in the Common Market in 1958, to propose the Fouchet Plan in the early 1960s, to veto British accession to the EC, and to provoke the “empty chair” crisis in 1965-1966, resulting in “Luxembourg Compromise.” In each case, the overwhelming bulk of the primary evidence—speeches, memoirs, or government documents—suggests that de Gaulle's primary motivation was economic, not geopolitical or ideological. Like his predecessors and successors, de Gaulle sought to promote French industry and agriculture by establishing protected markets for their export products. This empirical finding has three broader implications: (1) For those interested in the European Union, it suggests that regional integration has been driven primarily by economic, not geopolitical considerations—even in the “least likely” case. (2) For those interested in the role of ideas in foreign policy, it suggests that strong interest groups in a democracy limit the impact of a leader's geopolitical ideology—even where the executive has very broad institutional autonomy. De Gaulle was a democratic statesman first and an ideological visionary second. (3) For those who employ qualitative case-study methods, it suggests that even a broad, representative sample of secondary sources does not create a firm basis for causal inference. For political scientists, as for historians, there is in many cases no reliable alternative to primary-source research.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Organization, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and France

6452. Collective Management of International Financial Crises

Author:: Saori N. Katada
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: The world has experienced many financial crises. Despite numerous research and policy efforts in prevention to present them at of large scale, the global economy has not seen economists' (and investors') Nirvana of financial globalization without the occasional crises. On the contrary, the increasing dynamism and changing nature of financial flows across national borders seem to have created a larger number of new problems for creditors, debtors and international financial institutions. That has typically been true for middle income countries in Latin America and Asia and, very recently, in Eastern Europe, which have been integrated into the international financial system. During the two decades between the late 1970s and the late 1990s, three major sets of financial crises originated from those middle income countries, intensifying concerns for international financial stability.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe, Israel, East Asia, Latin America, Central America, and North America

6453. International Financial Markets as Sources of Crises or Discipline

Author:: Thomas D. Willett
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: Two major views dominate policy discussions of the role of international capital flows in the global political economy. While both believe that high capital mobility is eroding national sovereignty, one sees this as a positive step, that constrains governments' tendencies to follow overexpansionary macroeconomic policies for domestic political gain and promotes convergence toward low rates of inflation. Advocates of this viewpoint would typically agree with Haggard and Maxfield (1996) that “Increased financial integration holds governments hostage to foreign exchange and capital markets, forcing greater fiscal and monetary discipline than they might otherwise choose” (p. 36). This view is implied by most of the currently most popular economic models. The second viewpoint sees international capital markets as capricious followers of fads and fashions that pose serious challenges to domestic financial stability. The statements of Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister of Malaysia are typical of this view.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

6454. Open Regionalism: Lessons from Latin America for East Asia

Author:: Clark Winton Reynolds
Publication Date:: 08-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The process of regional integration is part of the reshaping of the international economic order at the end of the 20th century. Much if it is impelled by raw market forces, or what one may term 'silent integration.' In this process the increasingly liberalized movement of goods and services, factors of production (capital, technology, and labor through migration and as embodied in trade in goods and services), and tastes offers new prospects and challenges. There are opportunities for major increases in income and wealth for the most intrepid, skilled, mobile, and aggressive participants in the process. There are threats of lost income, power, prestige, values, and institutions for those left behind. There is a need to go behind the impulse of market forces, taking advantage of their dynamic but finding ways to manage interdependence so as to best reconcile differences among social groups, institutions, and values to ensure that the process of liberalized exchange produces gains that are equitable, stable, and sustainable.
Topic:: Economics, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Israel, East Asia, South America, and Latin America

6455. APEC beyond Economics: The Politics of APEC

Author:: Brian L. Job and Frank Langdon
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper deals with the history, formation, and objectives of APEC. It describes the tensions between the Anglo-Saxon and the East Asian APEC members and the clashes of interests between the large and small and developed and less developed nations, which show how precarious the formation of APEC was. Within the short term APEC does not seem destined to become an overarching regional, political, security, and economic institution. Indeed, certain forces within the region, such as increased arms acquisitions in some states, friction arising over trade disputes, protectionism, and investment flows, and tension between China and Taiwan, could hinder the objectives of the organization. It remains possible that the very process of finding common ground through APEC may contribute more to fostering community and to ensuring security in the region than the proposals actually agreed upon by all member nations.
Topic:: Economics and International Organization
Political Geography:: China and Europe

6456. 100 Companies Receiving The Largest Dollar Volume Of Prime Contract Awards—Fiscal Year 1996

Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: This report presents summary data on the 100 companies, and their subsidiaries, receiving the largest dollar volume of Department of Defense (DoD) prime contract awards during fiscal year (FY) 1996. Table 1 lists the 100 companies in alphabetical order and gives their associated rank. Table 2, identifies the parent companies in rank order, with their subsidiaries, and gives the total net value of awards for both the parent company and its subsidiaries. In many cases, the parent company receives no awards itself, but appears on the list because of its subsidiaries. Table 2 also shows what percentage of the total awards each company's awards represent, as well as the cumulative percentage represented by all companies. Table 3, lists the top 100 companies DoD-wide in rank order and breaks the totals into three categories of procurement: Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RDT); Other Services and Construction; and Supplies and Equipment. Table 4, lists the top 50 companies for each of the Reporting Components in rank order, and by category of procurement.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Economics
Political Geography:: United States

6457. Assistance Trends: Department of Defense Assistance History

Publication Date:: 12-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Economics
Political Geography:: United States

6458. Department of Defense Summary of Procurement Awards (Format Sum)

Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Economics
Political Geography:: United States

6459. Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1992

Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The data in this volume cover the operations of establishments of U.S. affiliates of foreign companies in 1992. A U.S. affiliate is a U.S. business enterprise that is owned 10 percent or more, directly or indirectly, by a foreign person. The volume is divided into two parts. The first covers all industries and presents data on the number, employment, payroll, and shipments or sales of the establishments of U.S. affiliates (hereinafter referred to as “foreign-owned establishments”); it includes data by detailed industry for nonmanufacturing and totals for manufacturing as a whole. The second part presents these data items by detailed industry within manufacturing as well as additional items for manufacturing establishments, including value added, total compensation of employees, employee benefits, hourly wage rates of production workers, and expenditures for new plant and equipment. In addition to data by industry, both parts present data by State and by country of owner. 2 The data for this volume were obtained from the Census Bureau's 1992 Economic Censuses and Standard Statistical Establishment List (SSEL). 3 They are the result of a project that links Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) enterprise, or company, data on foreign direct investment in the United States with Bureau of the Census establishment data for all U.S. businesses. 4 The project was authorized by the Foreign Direct Investment and International Financial Data Improvements Act of 1990. This volume updates data for foreign-owned manufacturing and nonmanufacturing establishments published in Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1987 and data for foreign-owned manufacturing establishments for 1988–91 published in Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for Manufacturing, in separate volumes for each year (see “Data Availability”). To aid comparisons of the data in this publication with those in the publications for earlier years, tables A and B provide cross-references between the table numbers used in this publication and those used in the publications for 1987–91. Analyses of the data from the link are available in three SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS articles: “Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1987,” in the October 1992 issue of the SURVEY, gives an overview of the 1987 data and an analysis of the attributes of industries with substantial foreign direct investment activity; “Characteristics of Foreign-Owned U.S. Manufacturing Establishments,” (http://raven/ARTICLES/INTERNAT/FDINVEST/1994/0194iid.pdf) in the January 1994 SURVEY, presents a profile of foreign-owned manufacturing establishments using the 1990 data; and “Differences in Foreign-Owned U.S. Manufacturing Establishments by Country of Owner,” (http://raven/ARTICLES/INTERNAT/FDINVEST/1996/0396iid.pdf) in the March 1996 SURVEY, uses the 1991 data to examine whether industry-mix and operating characteristics of foreign-owned U.S. manufacturing establishments vary by country of owner. In addition, an article that will analyze the 1992 data from a regional perspective is planned. The establishment data from the link project complement BEA's enterprise data for U.S. affiliates. BEA's enterprise data are needed for analyzing the overall significance of, and trends in, direct investment and for compiling the U.S. international transactions accounts, the international investment position of the United States, and the U.S. national income and product accounts. The data on positions and transactions between U.S. affiliates and their foreign parents used in compiling the national and international accounts exist only at the enterprise level. Analyses of some topics, such as profits and taxes, are meaningful only at that level. Furthermore, balance sheets and income statements containing the critical, nonduplicative financial and operating data needed for examining these topics exist only at the enterprise level. The establishment data facilitate analyses of the activities and importance of foreign-owned U.S. companies in specific, detailed industries. Each establishment of an enterprise can be classified separately in the establishment data, while BEA's enterprise data classify the entire enterprise, however diversified, in one industry. Furthermore, the level of industry classification can be much more detailed for individual establishments than is appropriate for consolidated enterprises, whose operations may span many narrowly defined industries. As a result, foreign-owned establishments can be classified into over 800 industries, while BEA's foreign-owned enterprises can be classified into only 135 industries. The tables in each part of this volume are organized into three groups. The first group gives an overview of the data by industry, country, and State. The second group presents detailed industry tables for individual States. The third group presents detailed industry tables for selected major investor countries. Some of the tables in each part show totals for key items of all U.S. establishments and the share of the all-U.S. totals accounted for by foreign-owned establishments.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

6460. U.S. Multinational Companies: Operations in 1995

Author:: Raymond J. Jr. Mataloni
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The operations of nonbank U.S. multinational companies (MNC's)grew more rapidly in 1995 than they had grown, on average, since 1982—the year in which this annual series began. According to preliminary estimates from BEA's annual survey of U.S. direct investment abroad for 1995, worldwide gross product of U.S. MNC's (U.S. parents and majority-owned foreign affiliates combined) grew 6 percent, compared with an average annual increase of 4 percent in 1982–94; employment increased 1 percent, compared with negligible growth; and capital expenditures increased 8 percent, compared with a 2-percent increase (table 1).
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

6461. The International Investment Position of the United States in 1996

Author:: Russel B. Scholl
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The net international investment position of the United States at yearend 1996 was -$870.5 billion with direct investment valued at the current cost of tangible assets, and it was -$831.3 billion with direct investment valued at the current stock-market value of owners' equity (table A, chart 1). For both measures, the value of foreign assets in the United States continued to exceed the value of U.S. assets abroad. However, for the direct investment component of the position valued on either basis, U.S. assets abroad continue to exceed foreign assets in the United States.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

6462. Human Development: The World After Copehagen

Author:: Richard Jolly
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: John W. Holmes' talk for the first annual meeting of the Academic Council on the United Nations System ( ACUNS ) in 1988 was titled Looking Backwards and Forwards. I would like to put the emphasis in this article on looking forwards—from Copenhagen plus one to the year 2000, 2015, or even 2030. In short, I would like to direct attention to the world that the United Nations will need to face in the years ahead, and explore how human advance can be carried forward over that period, rather than dwell on the predicaments in which the world is at present caught up or through which the UN has struggled over the fifty years of its existence.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United Nations

6463. Coping with US - Mexican Interdependence: The NAFTA Response

Author:: Miquel Ángel Valverde
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: This paper examines the theoretical discussion on interdependence, and its use for analyzing US-Mexican economic relations. It combines interdependence's premises with other perspectives on the position of North American economies in the global marketplace, arguing that NAFTA is an institutional response to these developments.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, North America, and Mexico

6464. The Politics of NAFTA: Presidential use of Side Payments

Author:: Miquel Ángel Valverde
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: In June 1990, President George Bush and Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari announced their intention to begin negotiating a free trade agreement. Canada joined the negotiations the following August. The proposed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) provoked an intense lobbying campaign in the US Congress, in what became a major political battle for its congressional approval. Some economic interests would win, others would lose with NAFTA. Congress members were worried about the loss of American low-skilled jobs and environmental issues. Regional interests were voiced loudly in the House of Representatives. A loose coalition of interest groups, including the AFL-CIO, public interest groups, and environmental organizations, coordinated opposition to the agreement. On the pro-NAFTA side was an ad hoc group of corporations, labeled USA-NAFTA, which included the National Association of Manufacturers and the US Chamber of Commerce. The Mexican government mounted an extensive lobbying campaign in favor of the trade pact. After intense congressional lobbying, President Bush obtained fast-track negotiating authority for NAFTA. Negotiations concluded in August 1992, and the following December, Presidents Bush and Salinas, as well as Canada's Prime Minister Mulroney, signed the pact, Presidential candidate Bill Clinton, under intense pressure from key constituencies of the Democratic Party, supported NAFTA "in principle," but only if complementary agreements on labor and environmental issues were included. Once in the office, Clinton negotiated these "side agreements" with Mexico and Canada, but still, strong opposition to NAFTA continued. In order to win congressional votes needed for the pact's approval, President Clinton engaged in a series of political compromises or "side-payments" with legislators, being able to form a congressional bipartisan coalition that allowed NAFTA passage.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

6465. Interest Groups in American Politics: Conceptual Elements and Key Literature

Author:: Miguel Angel Valverde
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: The objective of this paper is to discuss some concepts and review relevant literature on interest groups in the United States, in order to provide a broad guide to the study of the topic. It aims to explore the main questions raised by their presence in the political arena as well as suggest some themes for future research.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and America

6466. Environmentalism, Free Trade and Regionalism in Theoretical Perspective: An Unholy Developmental Trinity?

Author:: Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: Why do policy outcomes invariably fall short of expectations? Almost all studies of this puzzling topic over the last generation have revolved around a study of the limits of rational behavior. Although this literature is extraordinarily enriching, as society becomes more complex, the gap between policy intentions and outcomes seems to be widening, and constrained rational behavior appears to be accounting for increasingly less of that gap. Three incompatible policy areas today are environmentalism, free trade, and regionalism. This investigation undertakes a comparative analysis of the principles and key dimensions of those three policy areas, then transforms Benjamin Cohen's unholy monetary trinity into an unholy developmental trinity to offer a theoretical framework within which this incompatible policy-mix may be explained.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance

6467. Assessing the Rules - Power Debate in Farm Trade: A Case Study of the Canadian-U.S. Free Trade Agreement

Author:: Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: Asking "How have trade disputes over agriculture been settled in North America?", this study examines 11 appeals made to binational panels established under Chapter 19 of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement of 1989. By disaggregating the process of dispute settlement into complaints, rulings, country responses, and overall settlement, it reassesses an old debate (whether dispute outcomes are influenced by collective rules or the pursuit of self-help) and sheds new light. Whereas extant studies make the argument, through a study of appeals to G.A.T.T., that collective rules temper the blind pursuit of self-help, this study makes the argument that self-help is equally important an explanation. Whereas the former focus on outcomes which are non-binding, this study focuses on outcomes which are binding. Implications are drawn, at a time when domestic interests, nationalistic sentiments, and supranational pursuits compete to influence policy outcomes at all levels, for agriculture, integration in North America, and dispute settlement at the multilateral level.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Canada, and North America

6468. Private Equity Investment in Hungary: the Competitive Edge as a Force for Innovation

Author:: Eugene Spiro
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: At the conference opening, György Surányi, President of the National Bank of Hungary, outlined Hungary's successful efforts to rejuvenate economic activity with the prospect of European Union membership approaching . Following the successful implementation of economic policies aimed at establishing a market economy, for the first time in 25 years Hungary is gradually moving towards sustainable economic growth. Real GDP gains of almost 4 percent per annum are evident without accompanying deterioration of the external accounts or increases in inflation.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: Europe

6469. Saudi Arabia in the 1990s: Stability and Foreign Policy

Author:: Mordechai Abir
Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: The stability of Saudi Arabia (and the Persian Gulf as a whole) is crucially important to the world's industrial countries. According to the Gulf Center of Strategic Studies, "oil is expected to account for 38 percent of all the world consumption of energy until 2015, compared to 39 percent in 1993. Increasing world-wide demand for oil, now about 74 million barrels per day, is projected to rise by 2015 to about 110 million" (Gulf Report, London, July 1997). Over 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia alone controls 25 percent of the total.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Saudi Arabia

6470. The Dark Side of Social Capital

Author:: Martin Gargiulo and Mario Benassi
Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:: Research on social capital has stressed the advantages that networks can bring to managers and other economic actors. The enthusiasm with this "bright side" of social capital, however, neglects the fact that social bonds may at times have detrimental effects for a manager. This paper tries to correct the optimistic bias by looking at the "dark side" of social capital. Continuing benefits from social capital require that managers can adapt the composition of this social capital to the shifting demands of their task environment. This often implies the ability to create new ties while lessening the salience of some of the old bonds--if not severing them altogether. Available evidence, however, suggests that this ability may be encumbered by the same relationships purportedly responsible for the prior success of the manager. When and how this may happen is the central question we address in this paper. We argue that strong ties to cohesive contacts limit the manager's ability keep control on the composition of his network and jeopardize his adaptability to changing task environments. We test our ideas with data on managers operating in a special unit of a European high-technology firm.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: Europe

6471. Health Challenges for the 21st Century

Author:: Joshua Lederberg, Margaret Hamburg, Stephen Morse, Philip R. Reilly, and Timothy Wirth
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: New York Academy of Sciences
Abstract:: A crisis usually eliminates the time required to focus on the long-term: The urgent tends to drive out the important. Over the past several years, public policy perspectives on health care have often suffered from such myopia. In the United States, and in many other countries around the world, spiraling costs and shrinking budgets have focused health policy attention on perceived near-term crises over the allocation of (often public) resources. Because public resource allocation involves tax dollars, and because voters feel personally affected by changes in health services, the controversy enters the political arena. Moreover, politics itself is a very near-term business, with the ballot box and polling data providing its primary compass. In turn, this has added to the tendency to think of health care challenges in terms of immediate needs and to focus on the moment rather than on the consequences of today's changes in tomorrow's complex patterns.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and America

6472. As Mexico Imploded: Action and Inaction in the United States

Author:: Sidney Weintraub
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: On December 20, 1994, Mexican financial and monetary authorities raised the band within which the peso was permitted to fluctuate by 15 percent. They expected a short-lived shock, some economic adjustment, and then back to business as usual with a modestly devalued peso. Mexico, after all, had a history of currency devaluations, particularly during the transitions from one administration to another. Beyond that, Mexico was not a world monetary powerhouse and what it did would not normally attract great or sustained international attention.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Latin America, and Mexico

6473. Trading Places: The Caribbean Faces Europe and the Americas in the Twenty-first Century

Author:: Anthony T. Bryan
Publication Date:: 06-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: The challenges confronting the Caribbean with respect to trade with Europe and the Americas are essentially similar: the future of existing regimes of significant preferences, the need to plan for the long term without such preferences, and the development of a strategy to meet the transition. Unfortunately, the dialogue on these matters often has been characterized as a protocol for the Caribbean to “choose between friends.” Growth in the economies of the Caribbean will depend to a large extent on participation in or access to global trade arrangements. Ideally, a Caribbean strategy for participation should involve simultaneous access to as many pacts as possible. This paper is an overview of the legacy and the future of trade relations between the Caribbean and Europe, and between the Caribbean and the Americas, as these relationships constitute the Caribbean's most urgent global agenda.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, America, Europe, and Caribbean

6474. Possibilities and Realities of Cuba's Integration into the Caribbean: Perceptions of Cuban Entrepreneurs

Author:: Gerardo Gonzalez
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper analyzes how Cuban entrepreneurs perceive the importance of their role in Cuba's reintegration into the Caribbean. In the context of recent Cuban-Caribbean economic relations, Caribbean entrepreneurs have taken the lead, and Cuban entrepreneurs are trying to conduct business under changing and challenging conditions. As the Cuban economy gradually adapts to new national and international realities, an increasing number of Cuban firms are beginning to participate directly and actively in Cuba's external economic relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Cuba and Caribbean

6475. Trade Policy Options for Chile: A Quantitative Evaluation

Author:: Glenn W. Harrison and Thomas F. Rutherfod
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper examines the net economic benefits and government revenue implications for Chile of forming a free trade area with MERCOSUR as an associate member, forming a free trade area with NAFTA, and reducing its external tariff multilaterally and unilaterally. The research shows that NAFTA would benefit Chile, but Chile must obtain improved access in non-grain crops, one of its key export sectors, or NAFTA will result in losses for Chile. Chile will lose from the MERCOSUR agreement as presently constituted but can gain from participation in MERCOSUR by reducing its external tariff to between 6 percent and 8 percent. Such a lowering of the external tariff would lead to a reduction of costly, trade-diverting imports (on which Chile does not collect tariffs) from high-priced partner country suppliers. The paper indicates that Chile should continue to push for NAFTA membership, while moving toward broader multilateral trade liberalization. Additionally, collecting the value added tax at more uniform rates in Chile would reduce domestic distortions and enhance the effectiveness of trade policy reforms.
Topic:: Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance

6476. Privatization and Regulation: Lessons from Argentina and Chile

Author:: Luigi Manzetti
Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Some economists have argued that before governments privatize state-owned monopolies in public utilities, they should first try to promote competition. If this is not done, privatization does not produce gains in economic efficiency; instead, it fosters rent-seeking behavior by the new private ownership. Few empirical analyses of rent-seeking behavior for Latin America in post-privatization environments have been done — those that exist concentrate on economic issues and neglect important political motivations. The purpose of this paper is to fill that gap and address key issues of public policy by examining the cases of Chile and Argentina and providing a political explanation for why the Chilean and Argentine governments allowed rent-seeking behavior in important public utility markets. Based upon an analysis of these experiences, the paper then discusses the types of institutions most likely to avoid such negative consequences.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Political Economy

6477. Private Investment as a Financing Source for Microcredit

Author:: Carter Garber
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: In this paper, economist and development finance consultant Carter Garber examines the process of complementing donations and commercial bank credit with private investments as a source of capital for international microenterprise finance. First, he describes the large expectations for private capital in the rapid growth of microenterprise finance. Second, Garber discusses the varied sources of private capital, especially those involving socially responsible investment. The third and central section is an examination of eight “socially responsible investment” mechanisms that currently channel $27 million of U.S. private credit to microfinance lending institutions. Garber demonstrates the variety of available mechanisms and examines their track record to date. The final section identifies policy changes that will be necessary for these types of private investment in microenterprise to grow fast enough to meet the expected demand during the coming decade.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance

6478. Time to Reinvent APEC

Author:: Edward Lincoln and Kenneth Flamm
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, provides an opportunity for 18 countries with strong trade and investment ties to discuss a wide range of economic issues. APEC has scored two tangible achievements to date: a sweeping but vaguely worded 1994 pledge by its member states to open up to free trade and investment by 2010 and 2020, and a central role in the negotiation of the 1996 Information Technology Agreement (ITA). However, APEC is in danger of fading. When this year's summit begins on November 19, the United States must push for major reform of the APEC bargaining process if the organization is to have any chance of realizing its ambitious trade reform targets.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Asia

6479. Cato Institute's 15th Annual Monetary Conference

Author:: Anna J. Schwartz, Stanley Fischer, Jerry L. Jordan, Leland B. Yeager, Francisco Gil-Diaz, Roberto Salinas-Leon, A. James Meigs, Lawrence Kudlow, William A. Niskanen, Michael Prowse, and Bert Ely
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: On Tuesday, October 15, 1997 the Cato Institute continued its 15 year tradition of exploring pressing and timely issues in international fiscal policy with its meeting Money and Capital Flows in a Global Economy. Speakers including Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan; First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Stanley Fisher; and the Bank of Mexico's Vice Governor, Francisco Gil-Díaz, convened to sort through the pressing issues relevant to global capital flows that face the world economy.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Nagasaki

6480. Mixed Signals

Author:: Peter A. Hall and Robert J. Franzese Jr.
Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Plans for European Monetary Union are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the independence of the central bank can reduce inflation without any real economic effects. However, the theoretical and empirical bases for this claim rest on models of the economy that make unrealistic information assumptions and omit institutional variables other than the central bank. When the signaling problems between the central bank or other actors in the political economy are considered, we find that the character of wage bargaining conditions the impact of central bank independence by rendering the signals between the bank and the bargainers more or less effective. Greater independence can reduce inflation without major employment effects where bargaining is coordinated, but it brings higher levels of unemployment where bargaining is uncoordinated. Thus, currency unions like the EMU may require higher levels of unemployment to control inflation than their proponents envisage; they will have costs as well as benefits, costs which will be distributed unevenly among and within the member nations based on the changes induced in the status of the bank and of wage coordination.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

6481. Balancing Positive and Negative Integration: The Regulatory Options for Europe

Author:: Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: During the golden years from the 1950s to the mid-1970s, the industrial nations of Western Europe had the chance to develop specifically national versions of the capitalist welfare state - and their choices were in fact remarkably different (Esping-Andersen 1990). In spite of the considerable differences between the "Social-Democratic", "Corporatist" or "Liberal" versions, however, all were remarkably successful in maintaining full employment and promoting economic growth, while also controlling, in different ways and to different degrees, the destructive tendencies of unfettered capitalism in the interest of specific social, cultural, and/or ecological values (Scharpf 1991a; Merkel 1993). It was not fully realized at the time, however, how much the success of market-correcting policies did in fact depend on the capacity of the territorial state to control its economic boundaries. Once this capacity is lost, countries are forced into a competition for locational advantage which has all the characteristics of a Prisoner's Dilemma game (Sinn 1994). It reduces the freedom of national governments and unions to raise the regulatory and wage costs of national firms above the level prevailing in competing locations. Moreover, and if nothing else changes, the "competition of regulatory systems" that is generally welcomed by neoliberal economists (Streit/Mussler 1995) and politicians may well turn into a downward spiral of competitive deregulation and tax cuts in which all competing countries will find themselves reduced to a level of protection that is in fact lower than that preferred by any of them.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

6482. Sankin Kotai: Institutionalized Trust as the Foundation for Economic Development in the Tokugawa Era

Author:: Jennifer Amyx
Publication Date:: 06-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This article focuses on the sankin kotai, or alternate attendance, system instituted in Japan during the Tokugawa period. Most traditional accounts of the sankin kotai system–which included an important hostage element–portray it as a product of Tokugawa statecraft devised primarily for the coercion and exploitation of daimyo, or territorial lords, and control over a feudal order. In addition, these accounts tend to take the distinctive stability of this era for granted. Given the chaos and bloodshed of the "warring states" period which preceded it, however, the phenomenon of 267 years of peace deserves a stronger explanation.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Japan, Israel, and East Asia

6483. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

6484. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America

6485. Argentina: Another Round at the Polls

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: This month President Clinton visits Argentina, a major South American country that in recent years has become one of our most valued and trusted Latin allies. His presence there will underscore the special relationship that President Carlos Sal Menem has forged with the United States, a relationship that is a mirror image of Argentina’s historic antagonism toward Washington and all its works. Clinton’s presence will also highlight Argentina’s significant victories in the economic field–in the war against inflation, in the struggle to reestablish creditworthiness, and, above all, in its efforts to attract significant new foreign investment from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The visit precedes by about ten days an important midterm election, which in all probability will determine the political lineup for that country’s 1999 presidential election. In this regard, the most important development has been the creation of a multiparty coalition, the Alliance, which will be running joint lists against the candidates of Menem’s own Peronist Party. If the Peronists hold their own on October 26, Menem will be tempted to make a bid for an unprecedented third term. If they are soundly defeated, the struggle for succession within Peronism will begin the morning after. But a victory for the Alliance by no means clearly points the way for the opposition, which is beset by profound divisions of its own. This vagueness makes these elections a particularly interesting lens through which to view Argentina’s continuing evolution.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:: Argentina and Latin America

6486. Who’s Afraid of Big Bad Brazil?

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: On his trip to South America last month, President Clinton made quite a splash in Brazil. After starting off badly–dodging a torrent of manure thrown at his motorcade–he ended the week with the local media singing his praises. The secret of his success? The president (a quick study if there ever was one) immediately grasped that the best way to get along with Brazilians was to repeat back to them–with redoubled enthusiasm–what they told him about themselves. Thus, by the time Clinton had been in the country for thirty-six hours, he was expressing his conviction that Brazil, together with the United States, would lead the hemisphere in the twenty-first century. He also went out of his way to insist on his support for Mercosur, a subregional trade agreement-cum-political alliance of whose existence Clinton was probably only peripherally aware before his trip. In so doing, he seemed to be writing off an entire continent to the Brazilian sphere of influence.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Politics, and Reform
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and United States of America

6487. Theoretical Confidence Level Problems with Confidence Intervals for the Spectrum of a Time Series

Author:: Jon Faust
Publication Date:: 12-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Textbook approaches to forming asymptotically justified confidence intervals for the spectrum under very general assumptions were developed by the mid-1970s. This paper shows that under the textbook assumptions, the true confidence level for these intervals does not converge to the asymptotic level, and instead is fixed at zero in all sample sizes. The paper explores necessary conditions for solving this problem, most notably showing that under weak conditions, forming valid confidence intervals requires that one limit consideration to a finite-dimensional time series model.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Education

6488. Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle

Author:: Jon Faust and John S. Irons
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics

6489. The Accumulation of Human Capital: Alternative Methods and Why They Matter

Author:: Ann L. Owen and Murat F. Iyigun
Publication Date:: 05-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: We show how the ability o accumulate human capital through formal education and through a learning-by-doing process that occurs on the job affects the dynamic behavior of the human capital stock under a liquidity constrained and a non-constrained case. When there are alternatives to formal schooling in the accumulation of human capital, investing resources in increasing school enrollment rates in low-income countries may not be the most efficient means of increasing the human capital stock. In addition, removal of the liquidity constraints may not be sufficient to escape a development trap.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Education, and International Trade and Finance

6490. Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index

Author:: Neil R. Ericsson, Kari H. Eika, and Ragnar Nymoen
Publication Date:: 10-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Some recent studies have suggested constructing a Monetary Conditions Index (or MCI) to serve as an indicator of monetary policy stance. The central banks of Canada, Sweden, and Norway all construct an MCI and (to varying degrees) use it in conducting monetary policy. Empirically, an MCI is calculated as the weighted sum of changes in a short-term interest rate and the exchange rate relative to values in a baseline year. The weights aim to reflect these variables' effects on longer-term focuses of policy — economic activity and inflation. This paper derives analytical and empirical properties of MCIs in an attempt to ascertain their usefulness in monetary policy.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

6491. Regime Switching in the Dynamic Relationship between the Federal Funds Rate and Innovations in Nonborrowed Reserves

Author:: Chan Huh
Publication Date:: 01-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: This paper examines the dynamic relationship between changes in the finds rate and nonborrowed reserves within a reduced form framework that allows the relationship to have WO distinct patterns over time. A regime switching model a la Hamilton (1989) is estimated. On average, CPI inflation has been significantly higher in the regime and volatile changes in funds rate. Innovations in money growth are characterized by large associated with a strong anticipated inflation effect in this high inflation regime, and a moderate liquidity effect in the low inflation regime. Furthermore, an identical money innovation generates a much bigger increase in the interest rate during a transition period from the low to high inflation regime than during a steady high inflation period. This accords well with economic intuition since the transition period is when the anticipated inflation effect initially gets incorporated into the interest rate. The converse also holds. That is, the liquidity effect becomes stronger when the economy leaves a high inflation regime period and enters a low inflation regime period.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

6492. Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece

Author:: Neil R. Ericsson and Sunil Sharma
Publication Date:: 07-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, error correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece. This model contributes to a better understanding of the effects of monetary policy in Greece, and of the portfolio consequences of financial innovation in general. The broad monetary aggregate M3 was targeted until recently, and current monetary policy still uses such aggregates as guidelines, yet analysis of this aggregate has been dormant for over a decade.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

6493. Participatión Ciudadana y Retos Ambientalistas Frente a los Riesgos de la Globalización y del TLCAN

Author:: Sofía Gallardo C.
Publication Date:: 01-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: With the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement different view regarding the possible environmental risks and the measures that had to be taken in order to be able to manage them were expressed. Some environmental organizations for the first time sought to influence international trading issues in local, national and trinational networks. Current globalization processes have established new challenges to the citizens because they have forced them to focus their political action simultaneously in national, regional and global public scenarios. Therefore, Mexican, Canadian and American citizens have been increasingly involved in their countries' economic integration processes, creating awareness of the possible risks generated by the current globalization patterns and of the ways in which they can be affected. This paper concentrates on the challenges that civic organizations in general, and environmental groups in particular, have had to confront in order to maintain or try to improve their living standards with the implementation of NAFTA and offers some considerations on the successes and failures of civic and environmental actions in the purview of NAFTA.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: America, Canada, North America, and Mexico

6494. Intellectual Property, Trade, and Economic Development: A Road Map for the FTAA Negotiations

Author:: Carlos A. Primo Braga and Robert M. Sherwood
Publication Date:: 09-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Intellectual property (IP) protection is becoming increasingly crucial in the context of new international commitments, the competition for private investments, and global “technology racing.” This paper examines the common base for a Western Hemisphere IP arrangement and notes the most prominent existing regional integration accords that include IP commitments. It assesses the recent Trade Related Intellectual Property (TRIPS) Agreement negotiated during the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Law, and International Trade and Finance

6495. Strategic Global Repositioning and Future Economic Development in Jamaica

Author:: Richard L. Bernal
Publication Date:: 04-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Strategic global repositioning is a process of r epositioning a country in the global economy by implementing a strategic plan. Such plans are designed to consolidate and improve existing production lines while reorienting the economy toward new types of economic activities. In most developing countries, this involves structural transformation (not adjustment) to achieve economic diversification, including export diversification. The need for strategic global repositioning derives from trends in the global economy that portend limited opportunities for industrialization in developing countries.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

6496. Legitimate Rule in the European Union

Author:: Frank Schimmelfennig
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Two seemingly contradictory trends dominate the European debate over legitimate rule. On the one hand, there appears to be no ideologically viable alternative to liberal democracy following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc. On the other, the rapid progress of European integration has triggered an intense public debate over the European Union's "legitimacy deficit" and active popular opposition in many Western European countries. This paper asks whether these two seemingly contradictory developments can be reconciled. It argues that they can once it is recognized that the modern inter-state system is undergoing profound change. State sovereignty is being undermined by the trans-nationalization of foreign policy and the inter-nationalization of governance. In particular, the European Union has crossed the border from horizontal (or anarchical) interstate cooperation to vertical (or hierarchical) policy making in a multi-level political system in which states are but one level of the policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, International Organization, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Europe

6497. The Revival of the Nation-State?

Author:: Susanne Lutz
Publication Date:: 12-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: The debate on economic 'globalization' suggests that the blurring of territorial boundaries shifts the power relations between nation-states and domestic market constituencies in favour of the latter. States have lost autonomy since policies are increasingly formulated in supranational or global arenas. Market actors may use their wider choice of geographic location in order to lobby for low regulated market environments. The paper seeks to differentiate this common view considerably. It argues that economic internationalization weakens the capacity of domestic market actors to engage in self-binding agreements that formerly had solved regulatory problems. Networks of interstate collaboration in turn lack the ability to monitor and enforce negotiated agreements. Both developments impose new duties of market supervision on the nation-state. Empirical reference is drawn from the stock exchange sector that went through a process of transformation which has led to an enhanced role of the nation-state in the model of sectoral governance.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Government, and International Trade and Finance

6498. Nigeria: Country Profile

Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:: Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, was a pioneer in the movement for African independence. In past centuries, its territory was home to a series of powerful and technically-advanced societies, renowned for their artistic, commercial, and political achievements.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

6499. The Syndrome of the Ever-Higher Yen, 1971-95: American Mercantile Pressure on Japanese Monetary Policy

Author:: Ronald McKinnon, Kazuko Shirono, and Kenichi Ohno
Publication Date:: 12-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: From 1971 through mid-1995, the yen continually appreciated against the U.S. dollar because the Japanese and American governments were caught in a mutual policy trap. Repeated threats of a trade war by the United States caused the yen to ratchet up in 1971-73, 1977-78, 1985-87, and 1993 to mid-1995. While temporarily ameliorating commercial tensions, these great appreciations imposed relative deflation on Japan without correcting the trade imbalance between the two countries. Although resisting sharp yen appreciations in the short run, the Bank of Japan validated this syndrome of the ever-higher yen by following a monetary policy that was deflationary relative to that established by the U.S. Federal Reserve System. The appreciating yen was a forcing variable in determining the Japanese price level. After 1985, this resulted in great macroeconomic instability in Japan--including two endaka fukyos (high-yen-induced recessions).
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, America, Israel, and East Asia

6500. A United States Policy for the Changing Realities of East Asia

Author:: Donald Emmerson, Henry Rowen, Michel Oksenberg, Daniel Okimoto, James Raphael, Thomas Rohlen, and Michael H. Armacost
Publication Date:: 01-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Since the end of the Cold War, the power and prestige of the United States in East Asia have suffered a worrisome degree of erosion. The erosion is, in part, the by-product of long-run secular trends, such as structural shifts in the balance of power caused by the pacesetting growth of East Asian economies. But the decline has been aggravated by shortcomings in U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly the lack of a coherent strategy and a clear-cut set of policy priorities for the post-Cold War environment. If these shortcomings are not corrected, the United States runs the risk of being marginalized in East Asia--precisely at a time when our stakes in the region are as essential as those in any area of the world. What is needed, above all, is a sound, consistent, and publicly articulated strategy, one which holds forth the prospect of serving as the basis for a sustainable, nonpartisan domestic consensus. The elements of an emerging national consensus can be identified as follows:
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS