Search

Begin New Search Topic Economics

6401. Hong Kong Update: Fall 2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Ron Arculli, Steve Tsang, and Sunny Kai-sun Kwong
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Since the Hong Kong Update's first issue was published in September 1997, the purpose of the bulletin has been to gauge accurately the continuing evolution of Hong Kong by presenting a broad spectrum of views on developments in the new Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The Update has presented views from Washington, Hong Kong, and other areas of the world by inviting authors from both the U.S. Congress and Hong Kong SAR government; Washington and Hong Kong policy community; and U.S., Hong Kong, and international academics.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Hong Kong

6402. Hong Kong Update: Summer 2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Michael M.Y. Suen, and Eric Bjornlund
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Sir Winston Churchill once said, “At the bottom of all the tributes paid to democracy is the little man, walking into the little booth, with a little pencil, making a little cross on a little bit of paper—no amount of rhetoric or voluminous discussion can possibly diminish the overwhelming importance of the point.” Churchill's statement in 1944 underlines the determination of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government to encourage voters to turn out in record numbers for this September's Legislative Council ( LegCo) elections.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and Hong Kong

6403. Hong Kong Update: Spring 2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Barry Mortimer, Byron Weng, and James C. Hsiung
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Last year was a momentous time for Hong Kong's new mini- constitution, the Basic Law. The history is too well known to detail here. In brief, the Court of Final Appeal (CFA) decided the right of abode cases (Ng Ka Ling and Chan Kam Nga). Later, the Hong Kong government sought and obtained a “clarification” of the judgment and the chief executive applied to the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (NPC) for a further interpretation of the sections interpreted by the CFA (particularly Article 24(2)(3) of the Basic Law). The decision of the CFA stood, but for the future the Standing Committee provided the interpretation contended for by the Hong Kong government. (Should it be thought that the new interpretation was entirely arbitrary it accorded with the one earlier found to be the true interpretation by the Court of Appeal.) Many lawyers, commentators, politicians, and academics alleged that, in consequence, rule of law had been damaged and even that the independence of the judiciary had been diminished. Now that the dust has settled, the time has come to assess calmly the main issues that caused the controversy and see where we now stand.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and Hong Kong

6404. Gas For Oil Markets

Author:
Koji Morita
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Public projections by the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the European Commission suggest that, with present policies, world consumption of gas will roughly double by 2020, taking about 5% of the primary energy market from other fuels. About half this gain will be at the expense of more carbon-intensive fossil fuels, mainly coal, but the other half will replace carbon-free nuclear energy. The net effect on the growth of greenhouse gas emissions will therefore be small. For comparison, gas consumption increased in the past 20 years by almost 80%, at the expense of other fossil fuels. Half the increased gas demand is projected for developing countries, compared with 45% of the increase over the past 20 years and their present share of about a quarter of total world gas consumption.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

6405. Financial Services Liberalization in China: Conservative Gradualism

Author:
Chen Yixin
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Recent years have seen increasing liberalization of trade in financial services associated with the GATT / WTO negotiations. The Agreement concluded on 13 December 1997 by 70 WTO members will result in a significant impact on the financial services sector for these members. Although China has not yet been admitted to membership of the WTO, it has come under pressure to open its financial services market. Market access in this sector has been not only one of the major issues in its WTO accession talks, but also intrinsically linked to China's ongoing domestic financial system reforms, consistent with the gradualist scheme for its overall economic reform. China has been liberalizing its financial services sector, but only gradually. This paper outlines the reforms in its financial sector since 1979, and then offers an explanation for the slow speed of reform .
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Shanghai

6406. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2000

Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index declined 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index declined 0.1 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity. The slowdown of the Leading Index is primarily a result of the sustained inverted yield curve, shorter manufacturing hours brought about by tapering consumer demand, and loss of confidence on the part of both business executives and consumers in the future direction of the economy. Since reaching a peak in September, the Coincident Index remains fairly flat, consistent with a moderation in the pace of economic activity. The six-month change of the Leading Index has been declining for 7 consecutive months with the most recent two months having declined over one percent. Prior to these past seven months, the last time the Leading Index posted a decline in the six-month change was in August of 1995.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

6407. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2000

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity ahead. Since the high of 106.3 in January of this year, the Leading Index was down in eight of the past ten months. This is in sharp contrast to a 1.5 to 2 percent gain annually in the previous three years. The coincident to lagging ratio, which also tends to lead business cycle peaks, reached a high of 110.3 last March and has declined to 109.3 in November. A decrease in the ratio means a sharper increase in the Lagging Index, which measures the cost of doing business, relative to the Coincident Index. A further, more dramatic weakening of the Leading Index in the next few months, together with a continued decline in the coincident to lagging ratio, would confirm the danger of a downturn.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

6408. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2000

Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index held steady in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing down to a more moderate pace. A cooling off in the economy from its faster pace earlier this year and last year is reflected in the nine straight months that the Leading Index has been either flat or declining. This was confirmed by the Coincident Index which registered a decline this month after 13 months of continuous gains. The leveling off of the leading and coincident indexes results from the sustained inverted yield curve and the tight labor market brought about by prolonged economic expansion.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

6409. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2000

Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.4 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity continues to grow although more moderately. Strong income gains, together with increases in employment and industrial production, continue to drive the Coincident Index higher. The flat performance of the leading index partly results from the sustained inverted yield curve, which has the potential of hindering strong economic growth in the near term.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

6410. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 2000

Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing to a more moderate pace during the second half of the year. The deceleration in the performance of the leading index appears to be showing up in the more modest growth of the coincident index. The perverse behavior of the leading indicators, particularly the sustained inverted yield curve, will nevertheless be a negative factor for the economy over the near term.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6411. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2000

Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.1 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to a slowing in the pace of economic activity for the second half of the year. The decline in the leading index over the past 6 months signifies a moderation in the momentum of the economy. After several months of strong gains, the unchanged level of the coincident index for the month of July is consistent with the deceleration in the performance of the leading index. No change in the coincident index, coupled with a decline in the lagging index, resulted in a rise in the coincident-to-lagging ratio. The decline in the leading index would be a stronger signal of an economic slowdown had it been matched by a decline in the ratio.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6412. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 2000

Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.8 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The flat pace in the leading indicators in the recent months clearly points to moderating momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index, even as growth in the leading index slows. If sharp increases in the lagging index continue, cyclical imbalance could jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6413. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2000

Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.2 percent in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The modest pace in the leading index in the recent months clearly indicates some loss of momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income, and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index. Future interest-rate increases remain to be the most significant threat to the current economic expansion.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6414. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2000

Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.5 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.6 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components continue to show a strong economy: The indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though at a slower pace than that of the last six months. The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion remains the interest-rate increases at hand, and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve action. The most immediate risk would be a sustained inverted yield curve.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6415. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2000

Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index held steady in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through March. Coupled with no change in the lagging index, the coincident-to-lagging ratio shows that last months decline was merely a one-month aberration. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though not at the pace of the last six months. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in March, but should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6416. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2000

Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.8 percent in February. Taken together, the long-term outlook remains positive: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the second month of the year. With the release of February data, the expansion that began in the early 1990's is now the longest expansion in U.S. history. Despite a decline in the leading indicators, continued economic growth is expected. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability, as measured by the lagging index, must be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6417. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2000

Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the first month of the year. With the release of January data, the economy has tied the expansion of the 1960's as the longest expansion in U.S. history. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in January.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6418. A Financial Architecture for Middle-Class-Oriented Development

Author:
Walter Russell Mead and Sherle R. Schwenninger
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Case For Middle-Class-Oriented Development International financial architecture works best when it serves social goals that command widespread support and legitimacy. Without neglecting the more conventional goal of allowing the greatest possible global flow of capital with the least risk of financial crisis, the primary goal of international financial reform, for both economic and political reasons, ought to be to promote middle-class-oriented development around the world.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6419. A New Beginning: Recasting the U.S.-Japan Economic Relationship

Author:
Bruce Stokes
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The time is ripe for a bold new initiative to recast the U.S.-Japan economic partnership for the 21st century. A new Japan is emerging. Foreign investment is on the rise. Tokyo is deregulating and restructuring its economy. A new generation of Japanese entrepreneurs and venture capitalists has arrived on the stage.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and North Africa

6420. Economic Crisis and Corporate Reform in East Asia

Author:
Meredith Woo-Cumings
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 involved, among other things, a failure of regulation. Some believe this failure is endemic to global capitalism, and others believe it was profoundly local and idiosyncratic, emanating from regulatory flaws in the affected countries, stretching an arc from Thailand and Indonesia to Korea and Japan. There is also a debate about the nature of the regulation that failed. Some argue that the crisis emanated from a surfeit of nettlesome regulations and endemic industrial policy; others claim it happened for want of effective regulations and (even) industrial policy. Across the hypotenuse of these disagreements, however, stretches a universal recognition that regulatory infrastructure and institutions do matter and that they must play a major role in the way we think about economic development. After the miracle years in East Asia, “good governance” has become the Spirit of the Age.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Indonesia, Israel, East Asia, Asia, Korea, and Thailand

6421. The Paradox of Free Market Democracy: Indonesia and the Problems Facing Neoliberal Reform

Author:
Amy L. Chua
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
This paper will situate the recent problems in Indonesia in a more general framework that I will call the paradox of free-market democracy. The basic thesis I will advance is as follows. In Indonesia, as in many developing countries, class and ethnicity overlap in a distinctive and potentially explosive way: namely, in the form of a starkly economically dominant ethnic minority—here, the Sino-Indonesians. In such circumstances, contrary to conventional wisdom, markets and democracy may not be mutually reinforcing. On the contrary, the combined pursuit of marketization and democratization in Indonesia may catalyze ethnic tensions in highly determinate and predictable ways, with potentially very serious consequences, including the subversion of markets and democracy themselves. The principal challenge for neoliberal reform in Indonesia will be to find institutions capable of grappling with the problems of rapid democratization in the face of pervasive poverty, ethnic division, and an historically resented, market-dominant “outsider” minority.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and East Asia

6422. Cultural Contradictions of Post-Communism: Why Liberal Reforms Did Not Succeed in Russia

Author:
Nina Khrushcheva
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
One goal of Russia's economic reforms during the last ten years has been to establish a new class of businessmen and owners of private property—people who could form the foundation for a new model post-Soviet citizen. However, the experience of this post-communist economic “revolution” has turned out to be very different from the original expectations. For as people became disillusioned with communism due to its broken promises, the words “democracy” and “reform” quickly became equally as unbearable to large sectors of the Russian public after 1991. Such disillusion was achieved in less than ten years—a record revolutionary burnout that would be the envy of any anti-Bolshevik.
Topic:
Communism, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

6423. Institutions Structural Unemployment: Do Capital-Market Imperfections Matter?

Author:
Ansgar Belke and Rainer Fehn
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper analyses whether differences in institutional structures on capital markets contribute to explaining why some OECD-countries, in particular the Anglo-Saxon countries, have been much more successful over the last two decades in producing employment growth and in reducing unemployment than most continental-European OECD-countries. It is argued that the often-blamed labour market rigidities alone, while important, do not provide a satisfactory explanation for these differences across countries and over time. Financial constraints are potentially important obstacles against creating new firms and jobs and thus against coping well with structural change and against moving successfully toward the “new economy”. Highly developed venture capital markets should help to alleviate such financial constraints. This view that labour-market institutions should be supplemented by capital market imperfections for explaining differences in employment performances is supported by our panel data analysis, in which venture capital turns out to be a significant institutional variable.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

6424. The Changing Nature and Determinants of EU Trade Policies

Author:
Paul Brenton
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
EU trade policies and the environment in which they are determined are now considerably different from when the EU came into being in the 1950s. With the exceptions of agriculture and textiles and clothing, tariffs and quantitative restrictions on trade in goods have been reduced to historically very low levels. But trade policy is now about much more than border restrictions upon trade in goods. Trade in services and the impact of national differences in regulatory regimes are now firmly on the trade policy agenda. This paper describes the current multilateral and preferential trade policies of the EU. It highlights the increasing importance of regulatory issues and the fact that some of these are being addressed outside of both multilateral and standard bilateral free trade agreements. This reflects the mixed motives behind EU trade policies and that for trade with certain regions the typical political economy factors framing trade policy are no longer relevant. For example, liberalisation of transatlantic trade, in the limited form at present of mutual recognition of conformity assessment, is being strongly driven by large corporate business. This trend suggests that the pyramid of preferences usually used to depict EU trade policies is becoming very distorted.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

6425. One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union

Author:
Daniel Gros and Carsten Hefeker
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
What policy objective should a common central bank in a heterogeneous monetary union pursue? Should it base its decisions on the EU-wide average of inflation and growth or should it instead focus on (appropriately weighted) national welfare losses based on national rates of inflation and growth? We find that a central bank that minimises the sum of national welfare losses reacts less to common shocks and that this can lead to higher average union-wide expected welfare, if the variability of common shocks is large relative to the inflation bias. But for countries with a transmission mechanism close to the average, welfare can actually be lower in this case. The inflationary bias depends on the interaction between the transmission mechanism and distortions in labour markets.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

6426. The International Trade of Multinational Firms: The Empirical Behaviour of Intrafirm Trade in a Gravity Equation Model

Author:
Kimberly A. Clausing
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Multinational firms are an increasingly important part of international economic integration. In recent years, foreign direct investment has been increasing at a rate that exceeds both the rate of growth of international trade and that of income. For many countries, the sales of affiliates of multinational firms have long dwarfed the value of trade. For example, in 1997, European Union country firms exported $283 billion in products to the United States. In the same year, affiliates of E.U.-based multinational firms sold $816 billion worth of products in the United States, almost three times the value of exports.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

6427. Technical Barriers to Trade in the European Union: Importance for Accession Countries

Author:
Paul Brenton, John Sheehy, and Marc Vancauteren
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With trade in industrial products between the EU and the CEECs now essentially free of tariff and non-tariff restrictions, the principal impact of accession to the EU on trade flows will be through access to the Single Market of the EU. A key element of this will be the removal of technical barriers to trade. In this paper we try and highlight the importance of technical barriers to trade between the EU and the various CEECs, distinguishing sectors according to the different approaches to the removal of these barriers in the EU: mutual recognition, detailed harmonisation (old approach) and minimum requirements (new approach). We utilise two sources of information on technical regulations: a sectoral classification from a previous study of the impact of the Single Market and our own detailed translation of EU product related directives into the relevant tariff codes. The analysis suggests that the importance of technical barriers varies considerably across the CEECs. The adjustment implications of access to the Single Market are likely to be greatest for those most advanced in their accession negotiations.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

6428. Goodbye, Agenda 2000, Hello Agenda 2003: Effects of the Berlin Summit on Own Resources, Expenditures, and EU Net Balances

Author:
Michael Emerson and Jorge Núñez Ferrer
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper describes the development of the negotiations from the birth of the Agenda 2000 proposals to the end of the Berlin European Council Summit and discusses the consequences of the outcome. The study shows to what extent net contributions to the EU budget and narrow national interests dominated the negotiations, at the expense of the original aims of the reforms (to prepare the Union for enlargement and for the next round of WTO negotiations), which were practically forgotten. This type of behaviour is by no means unique. On the contrary, it has been recurrent in the history of the EU. Estimates of future expenditures and own resources show that the Berlin European Council conclusions will prove to be far from satisfactory.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Berlin

6429. Consumer Credit in the European Union

Author:
Nuria Diez Guardia
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This report analyses the European consumer credit markets and their regulation at European level. Its findings are as follows: European consumer credit markets are characterised by deep national differences and strong market segmentation. The report finds no generalised model of consumer credit from the analysis of statistical data. An Anglo-Saxon consumer credit model cannot be identified. The weight of consumer credit is far higher in the US economy than in the EU countries, including the UK. In the US, the share of consumer loans made by banks is much lower, securitisation of consumer credit assets is very developed and the share of revolving credit is much greater than in the EU countries. Nor is it possible, on account of the large differences in the use of consumer credit observed across EU countries, to identify a European model of consumer credit. Consumer credit is very widely used in Sweden, whereas it is underdeveloped in Greece and Italy. The use of consumer credit reaches comparatively high levels in Germany and the UK and an intermediate level in France and Spain. Lending to consumers is carried out through bank intermediation, crossborder provision is non-existent.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Greece, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

6430. Serbia: The Milosevic Regime on the Eve of September Elections

Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The regime in Serbia has recovered its footing after the 1999 war with NATO and remains as hard-line as ever. Learning and gaining experience over the years has enabled the regime to “improve” its performance and become more efficient. Most analysts in Serbia agree that Milosevic will be able to stay in power indefinitely.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Serbia

6431. Serbia's Grain Trade: Milosevic's Hidden Cash Crop

Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nearly a year after NATO defeated Serbia in the war over Kosovo, the international community appears uncertain about how to remove Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic from power.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

6432. Kosovo's Linchpin: Overcoming Division In Mitrovica

Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Mitrovica has become the linchpin of Kosovo's future united status. The stakes are high. If the international community cannot re-establish Mitrovica as a single city, efforts to preserve a united Kosovo will also fail.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Mitrovica

6433. Montenegro: In the Shadow of the Volcano

Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Montenegro has been a crisis-in-waiting for two years now, with Belgrade opposing efforts by a reform-minded government under President Milo Djukanovic to distance itself ever further from its federal partner Serbia. Federal President Slobodan Milosevic has steadily escalated the pressure against Djukanovic, probing the extent of NATO support for Montenegro and pushing the Montenegrins toward a misstep that might undermine their international backing. Each of the three possible policy-paths facing the Montenegro government, however, is unappealing in its own way:Going ahead with a referendum on independence for Montenegro would risk radicalising a population still peacefully divided over the issue, and would offer maximum provocation to Belgrade, which retains a powerful military presence in Montenegro. Maintaining the status quo may offer a better chance of avoiding open confrontation with Belgrade, but it leaves Montenegro in a limbo. Its friends are not offering all the help they could, on the grounds that it is not a sovereign state; but prospects for selfgenerated income through inward investment or revival of the tourist industry are still hostage to international risk perceptions. Achieving rapprochement with the Serbian government would be possible if Milosevic went. But Montenegro cannot afford to leave its future in the unsure hands of the present Serbian opposition. And as the atmosphere in Serbia steadily worsens, political and public opinion in Montenegro appears to grow ever less willing to compromise.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Montenegro

6434. On Currency Crises and Contagion

Author:
Morris Marcel Fratzscher
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Many economists have started to concede in recent years that contagion and self-fulfilling beliefs of investors have played a crucial role in the emerging market financial crises of the 1990s. Despite the progress on the theoretical side, however, empirical models of currency crises have been shown to perform poorly (Berg and Pattillo 1998) and many economists and policy institutions have been struggling to develop adequate models to predict future financial crises (Kaminsky et al. 1997, Goldstein et al. 2000).
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

6435. Strengthening the International Financial Architecture: Where Do We Stand?

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
It's not easy to get senior economic officials worked up about the functioning of the international monetary system. Usually, they are preoccupied with the more immediate issues surrounding the national and global economic outlook. But the Mexican peso crisis of 1994-95 and, even more so, the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 made crisis management important for the economic outlook and pushed many of the otherwise arcane issues in the so-called “international financial architecture” (hereafter, IFA) to the front burner of economic policy.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Mexico

6436. Transatlantic Issues in Electronic Commerce

Author:
Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The global and dynamic e-commerce marketplace will increasingly impact the nature of national and international economic and government relations. This paper highlights three areas where the United States and European Union (EU) governments differ in their approaches as to how best to serve their domestic constituencies: treatment of trade flows, approach to tax regimes, manner of protecting personal data. Because the Internet marketplace is global but policy jurisdictions remain local, policy conflicts can develop. Policymakers on both sides need to harness technology and promote incentives for the private sector to help solve problems caused by the jurisdictional overlap. In addition to cross-border jurisdictional overlap, problems within a country can develop from issue convergence and policy overlap. That is, because the e-commerce marketplace is so integrated, the policy toward handling one issue, even within the national context, has implications for the policy set that is available to policymakers on other issues. Therefore, policies within a country must be more carefully meshed with each other with an eye toward consistency in the face of the forces of electronic commerce..
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

6437. Inflation, Monetary Transparency, and G3 Exchange Rate Volatility

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Short-term volatility in G3 bilateral exchange rates has been a fact of life since the beginning of the post-Bretton Woods float. It has been established, surprisingly, that this volatility is not only disproportionately large relative to the variation in relative macroeconomic fundamentals of Germany, Japan, and the United States, but is in fact largely unrelated to them. The apparent disconnect between fundamentals and dollar-yen and dollar-euro exchange rate fluctuations has led to perennial complaints about persistent exchange rate “misalignments,” and their real effects on the G3 (and other) economies, giving rise in turn to recurring proposals for government policies to limit this volatility. The idea that volatility reflects nothing more than the (perhaps rational, certainly profit-seeking) behavior of foreign exchange traders seems to give justification for a policy response. Yet, the disjunction between macroeconomic expectations and the volatility seems to indicate as well that some deviation from domestic monetary policy goals would be necessary to intervene against exchange rate swings.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Germany

6438. The New Asian Challenge

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The initial postwar challenge from East Asia was economic. Japan crashed back into global markets in the 1960s, became the largest surplus and creditor country in the 1980s, and was viewed by many as the world's dominant economy by 1990. The newly industrialized countries (Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore) followed suit on a smaller but still substantial scale shortly thereafter. China only re-entered world commerce in the 1980s but has now become the second largest economy (in purchasing power terms), the second largest recipient of foreign direct investment inflows, and the second largest holder of monetary reserves. Indonesia and most of Southeast Asia grew at 7 percent for two or more decades. The oil crises of the 1970s and the financial crises of the late 1990s injected temporary setbacks but East Asia has clearly become a third major pole of the world economy, along with North America and Western Europe.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, Israel, Taiwan, East Asia, Asia, North America, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong

6439. Electronic Commerce in Developing Countries: Issues for Domestic Policy and WTO Negotiations

Author:
Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Electronic commerce and its related activities over the internet can be the engines that improve domestic economic well-being through liberalization of domestic services, more rapid integration into globalization of production, and leap-frogging of available technology. Since electronic commerce integrates the domestic and global markets from its very inception, negotiating on trade issues related to electronic commerce will, even more than trade negotiations have in the past, demand self-inspection of key domestic policies, particularly in telecommunications, financial services, and distribution and delivery. Because these sectors are fundamental to the workings of a modern economy, liberalization here will rebound to greater economic well-being than comparable liberalization in more narrowly focussed sectors. Thus, the desire to be part of the e-commerce wave can be a powerful force to erode domestic vested interests that have slowed the liberalization of these sectors.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

6440. International Economic Agreements and the Constitution

Author:
Richard M. Goodman and John M. Frost
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
International agreements, such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), generally aim to facilitate the free flow of goods and services among nations. The U.S. Supreme Court has developed a jurisprudence similarly aiming to facilitate the free flow of goods and services among the several states. That jurisprudence has developed from litigation challenging the constitutionality of state actions on the basis of the Commerce and Supremacy Clauses of the Constitution (art. I, § 8, cl. 3, and art. VI, cl. 2). In some subject areas, Commerce Clause decisions closely align with international agreements. In other areas, either or both fall short of achieving economic integration.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and North America

6441. Tools for Thought: What Is New and Important About the "E-conomy"?

Author:
John Zysman, Stephen S. Cohen, and J. Bradford DeLong
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
There are eras when advancing technology and changing business organizations transform economies and societies. Such episodes do not just amplify productivity in one leading sector. Instead, they give all economic sectors powerful new "tools." Today we are living through such a transformation in our economic landscape, a transformation that warrants a new name: the "E-conomy." Information technologies, data communication and data processing technologies, are tools to manipulate, organize, transmit, and store information in digital form. They are tools for thought that amplify brainpower in the way the technologies of the Industrial Revolution amplified muscle power.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology

6442. Creating Stability: National Preferences and the Origins of European Monetary System

Author:
Mark Aspinwall
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This essay compares the preferences of France, Italy, and Britain on the creation of the European Monetary System in 1978-1979, especially the Exchange Rate Mechanism, which stabilised nominal exchange rates. My claim is that the different conclusions reached by the governments (France and Italy in, Britain out) cannot be explained by economic circumstances or by interests, and I elaborate an intervening institutional variable which helps explain preferences. Deducing from spatial theory that where decisionmakers 'sit' on the left-right spectrum matters to their position on the EMS, I argue that domestic constitutional power-sharing mechanisms privilege certain actors over others in a predictable and consistent way. Where centrists were in power, the government's decision was to join. Where left or right extremists were privileged, the government's decision was negative. The article measures the centrism of the governments in place at the time, and also reviews the positions taken by the national political parties in and out of government. It is intended to contribute to the growing comparativist literature on the European Union, and to the burgeoning literature on EU-member-state relations.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Britain, Iraq, Europe, and France

6443. East-West Integration and the Changing German Production Regime: A Firm-Centered Approach

Author:
Katharina Bluhm
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
With the opening of Central Eastern Europe German firms have gained access to low labor costs in close geographical proximity. Intense debate about the impact this has had on the “German model” of capitalism has ensued. This paper argues that, in fact, production shifts are taking place in which cost-cutting motives are an important guideline. German firms, however, hesitate to aggressively utilize this new option in their internal domestic labor policy. Rather, firms tend to avoid confrontations with their employees on “job exports”. The necessity of collaboration on both sides of the border, the relative strength of workers in the domestic high-quality production system, and the constraints of industrial relations provide explanations for the moderate behavior. So far, the outcome of the bargained reorganization is that firms gain more labor flexibility, performance-related differentiation, and labor-cost rationalization without challenging the institutionalized long-term employment commitments for their core workforce.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Germany

6444. “Social Democracy, Globalization and Governance: Why is there no European Left Program in the EU?”

Author:
Christopher S. Allen
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper addresses globalization and governance in the EU by attempting to generate some plausible hypotheses that might explain the policy choices of the 12 out of 15 European democratic left governments. With all of the discussion in recent years of a democratic deficit, and then need to maintain a “social Europe,” why have these governments not produced more explicit left-wing policies?
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

6445. When Labour and Capital Collude: The Varieties of Welfare Capitalism and Early Retirement in Europe, Japan and the USA

Author:
Bernhard Ebbinghaus
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The institutionalisation of early retirement has become a universal feature of postwar industrial economies, though there are significant cross-national variations. This paper studies the impact of different types of welfare regimes, production systems and labour relations on early exit from work. After an analysis of the main trends, the paper discusses the costs and benefits of early retirement for the various actors — labour, capital and the state — at different levels. The paper outlines both the “pull” and “push” factors of early exit. It first compares the distinct welfare state regimes and private occupational pensions in their impact on early retirement. Then it looks at the labour-shedding strategies inherent to particular employment regimes, production systems and financial governance structures. Finally, the impact of particular industrial relations systems, and especially the role of unions is discussed. The paper finds intricate “institutional complementarities” between particular welfare states, production regimes and industrial relations systems, and these structure the incentives under which actors make decisions on work and retirement. The paper argues that the “collusion” between capital, labour and the state in pursuing early retirement is not merely following a labour-shedding strategy to ease mass unemployment, but also caused by the need for economic restructuration, the downsizing pressures from financial markets, the maintenance of peaceful labour relations, and the consequences of a seniority employment system.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Europe, and East Asia

6446. Defense Monitor: NMD Update: The Real World Intrudes

Author:
Colonel Daniel Smith
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
IN AN EARLIER DEFENSE MONITOR(Volume XXIX, Issue 1, 2000), we reported on the status of the National Missile Defense program (NMD). At that time the success rate of NMD was 50%, although even the October 2, 1999 success was qualified because the kill vehicle first homed on the single decoy until, at the last moment, it finally detected its true target nearby.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics

6447. Defense Monitor: Landmines Remain Issue in Korea

Author:
Rachel Stohl
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Three years ago the international community joined forces to ban landmines. While the majority of the countries of the world worked to reach an agreement, several countries remained opposed to the effort. Nonetheless, today the 1997 Ottawa Treaty banning the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of anti-personnel mines has been signed by 137 countries and ratified by 95. The Treaty entered into force in March 1999, becoming binding international law more quickly than any treaty in history.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Ottawa

6448. Defense Monitor: The NPT Review — Last Chance?

Author:
Rear Admiral Eugene Carroll
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Just five years ago the United States led a strong global effort to achieve indefinite extension of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1970 which was due to expire on its 25th anniversary in April, 1995. U.S. leaders exerted substantial diplomatic pressure on nations less than enthusiastic about extending the NPT regime in order to ensure perpetuation of this critically important element of the global arms control structure, one very much in U.S. security interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6449. The Internet in Turkey and Pakistan: A Comparative Analysis

Author:
Peter Wolcott and Seymour Goodman
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The Global Diffusion of the Internet Project was initiated in 1997 to study the diffusion and absorption of the Internet to, and within, many diverse countries. This research has resulted in an ongoing series of reports and articles that have developed an analytic framework for evaluating the Internet within countries and applied it to more than 25 countries.
Topic:
Economics and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, and Middle East

6450. Impact On Global Warming Of Development And Structural Changes In The Electricity Sector Of Guangdong Province, China

Author:
Michael M. May, Chi Zhang, and Thomas C. Heller
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact on global warming of development and structural changes in the electricity sector of Guangdong Province, China, together with the possible effect of international instruments such as are generated by the Kyoto Protocol on that impact. The purpose of the paper is three–fold: to examine and analyze the data available, to put that data into an explanatory economic and institutional framework, and to analyze the possible application of international instruments such as CDMs in that locality. Our plans are to supplement this work with similar work elsewhere in China.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
China and Asia