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6401. Foreign Direct Investment in China: Effects on Growth and Economic Performance

Author:
Edward M. Graham and Erika Wada
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
By almost all accounts, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has been one of the major success stories of the past 10 years. Starting from a base of less than $19 billion in 1990, the stock of FDI in China rose to over $300 billion at the end of 1999. Ranked by the stock of inward FDI, China thus has become the leader among all developing nations and second among the APEC nations (only the United States holds a larger stock of inward FDI). China's FDI consists largely of greenfield investment, while inward FDI in the United States by contrast has been generated more by takeover of existing enterprises than by new establishment, a point developed later in this paper. The majority of FDI in China has originated from elsewhere in developing Asia (i.e., not including Japan). Hong Kong, now a largely self-governing “special autonomous region” of China itself, has been the largest source of record. The dominance of Hong Kong, however, is somewhat illusory in that much FDI nominally from Hong Kong in reality is from elsewhere. Some of what is listed as Hong Kong-source FDI in China is, in fact, investment by domestic Chinese that is “round-tripped” through Hong Kong. Other FDI in China listed as Hong Kong in origin is in reality from various western nations and Taiwan that is placed into China via Hong Kong intermediaries. Alas, no published records exist to indicate exactly how much FDI in China that is nominally from Hong Kong is in fact attributable to other nations.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Hong Kong

6402. Subsidies, Market Closure, Cross-Border Investment, and Effects on Competition: The Case of FDI in the Telecommunications Sector

Author:
Edward M. Graham
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Telecommunications long was a sector where sellers of services operated in protected local markets, where law and government regulation created and enforced barriers to entry, especially by foreign firms. In many nations, in fact, the provision of telecommunications services was reserved for state-owned monopoly suppliers. During the late 1980s and through the 1990s, however, many of these barriers have been removed while formerly state-owned firms have been partially or wholly privatized. This has in turn engendered some cross entry by telecom service providers; firms that once were purely domestic in the scope of their operations thus have become multinational.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Science and Technology

6403. Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Erika Wada, and John H. Rogers
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Consumer price inflation in the euro area declined steadily during most of the 1990s. However, in the last two years, both headline and core inflation have risen throughout the area, and sizable cross-country differences in inflation have re-emerged. This is illustrated by Figure 1, which shows the headline consumer price inflation rate for the euro area as a whole and for select member countries. As of October 2000, all euro area countries had headline inflation rates above the European Central Bank's 2 percent medium-term ceiling, with rates ranging from 2.1 percent in France and Austria to 6 percent in Ireland. In Greece, which will join the euro area on 1 January 2001, inflation was 3.8 percent.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, and Austria

6404. Permanent Alliance? NATO's Prague Summit and Beyond

Author:
C. Richard Nelson, Chas W. Freeman Jr., Wesley K. Clark, Max Cleland, Gordon Smith, and Robert L. Hutchings
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With U.S. leadership, the Alliance has undertaken an impressive transformation over the past decade: from the July 1990 London Summit, which heralded a “Europe whole and free,” to the April 1999 Washington Summit, which welcomed three former Warsaw Pact members as new allies, even as NATO forces were engaged in combat for the first time. But the Alliance has not yet realized its full potential as an institution embracing all democratic nations of Europe dedicated to collective defense and embodying the interests and values of the transatlantic community. Moreover, the allies still confront important challenges to their shared goal of bringing lasting security to the European continent as a whole, as well as to the overall vitality of the transatlantic relationship.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and London

6405. Changing Terms of Trade: Managing the New Transatlantic Economy

Author:
David L. Aaron and Donald L. Guertin
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The economic relationship between the United States and the European Union (EU) is in the midst of a significant transition. In the past, the dominant element of that relationship was trade. This was only natural, given their large share of the global trading system: the United States generates 19 percent of world trade, and the European Union 20 percent. Moreover, the United States is the EU's largest trading partner, while the EU is the single largest importer into the United States and the second largest market for U.S. exports. But in recent years, several new elements have become more prominent in the transatlantic economic relationship, bringing with them both challenges and opportunities.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

6406. Governance and Politics of the Internet Economy–Historical Transformation or Ordinary Politics with a New Vocabulary?

Author:
Steven Weber and John Zysman
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Driven by two fundamental processes, rapid technological change as well as social innovation and reorganization, a new digital economy, the E-conomy, is emerging. Rather than merely adding an Internet sector to the economy, the E-conomy has brought about tools for thought, tools that transform every sector of the economy by amplifying brainpower the way steam engines amplified muscle power during the Industrial Revolution. For analytic purposes, the rise of the E-conomy can be told as a story composed of 1) networks and tools, 2) e-business and e-society, 3) the productivity dilemma resolved, and 4) governance and politics. In the short run, the transformative processes unleashed by the E-conomy are likely to lead to new bargains among existing coalitions and interest groups. In the long run, the changes underway promise to fundamentally alter the political sociology of vast communities, give rise to new interests and coalitions, and transform the institutional foundation of social, economic and political life.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, Politics, and Science and Technology

6407. Decentralized Cooperation and the Future of Regulatory Reform

Author:
Pepper D. Culpepper
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Faced with the fact of sweeping regulatory reform, how do companies decide how to respond to a new set of policies? This paper argues that this problem requires a new conception of policymaking: a conception that recognizes the analytical primacy of achieving coordination under uncertainty. I call this challenge the problem of securing decentralized cooperation. Negotiated reforms are a common leitmotif of the current wave of reforms taking place in various European countries, whereas American attempts to reinvent government opt to replace the state with the market. There are general lessons in this approach for both strategies. Unlike the earlier attempts to establish neo-corporatist bargains at the national level in European countries, the success of bargained pacts in Europe will depend increasingly on allowing private actors to design the best solutions to centrally identified problems. The challenges of bringing private information to bear on public policy will increase in the future, and not only in supply-side economic policy reforms. One such area is environmental regulation, which is typically viewed as an area of pure state regulation. This is also an area where market-based solutions are frequently proposed as the most efficient solution to problems of pollution. As I demonstrate through the initiative of the Chesapeake Bay Program in the United States, the challenges identified above for areas of economic policymaking are now relevant to environmental initiatives, even in liberal market economies such as the US and the UK. The extent of government success in such initiatives will be determined by the ability of governments to understand the importance of private information and their capacity to develop private sector institutions that can help procure it. Attempts to replace a malfunctioning state with a market solution, currently very much in vogue in certain quarters in the United States, will fail, as long as they do not recognize the distinctive problems inherent in securing decentralized cooperation.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

6408. India's Reform Agenda: Micro, Meso and Macro Economic Reforms

Author:
Vijay L. Kelkar
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
During the 1990s, India has been among the fastest growing economies of the world. This year would be the third consecutive year when the real GDP growth is six percent or higher. This has been accompanied by exchange rate stability and a low inflation rate. For instance, currently, the underlying core inflation rate remains only three percent per annum. Are these trends of growth acceleration sustainable to meet India's two strategic objectives, which are eradication of poverty, and playing our rightful role in the world by becoming a source of growth and stability for the global economy? To analyze this, it is necessary to look at the Indian economy in a somewhat longer and global perspective. This is essential to identify the necessary policy reforms which are the topic of my lecture today, namely, India's Reform Agenda: Micro, Meso and Macro Economic Reforms.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

6409. "Injustes" sanctions: les constructions internationales de la dénonciation des embargos et l'escalade de la vertu abolitionniste

Author:
Ariel Colonomos
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
At a time when the use of sanctions has intensified considerably, criticism directed at embargos is gaining ground. In interpreting this significant rise in opposition, this article shows how and why mobilization against sanctions has developed, what sort of actors are involved and what forms it takes. This research brings to light the formation of networks and coalitions against both unilateral and multilateral measures. It underlines the role, status and scope of those whose business it is to fashion norms, by questioning the main analytical categories their strategies are usually based on. An expertise in embargo assessment, destined to levy judgment on a type of very specific violence, is developing in both national and transnational public spaces. This research, analyzing the emergence of this expertise, sheds light on the development of a conception of unjust sanctions and identifies the mechanisms of its construction on an international scale. This text in particular underlines the importance of traditions of just war, especially their reinterpretation by actors on the international scene and its moral norm-makers. Considering the development of these standards allows us to grasp one of the most decisive aspects of the use of force in the post-cold war world, as well as the establishment of certain international reforms.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6410. The Politics of Trade in North America: Comparing Models and Industries

Author:
Arturo Borja Tamayo, Philippe Faucher, Scott Morgenstern, and Daniel Nielson
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This working paper studies the negotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in two industrial chains: textile-apparel and auto parts-automotive. It compares two theoretical models. The first uses two internal variables (interest group strength and industry competitiveness) to explain the tariffs that were negotiated for the phase-out period of NAFTA. The second explores alternatives to increase the explanatory capacity of two-level games models. It incorporates the element of asymmetry between countries, and questions Putnam's (1988) hypothesis on the impact of domestic politics upon international negotiations. This second model explains the difference in the rules of origin that were adopted in NAFTA for the two industrial chains. The work reaches three conclusions. First, it confirms the necessity to specify different dependent variables to explain the outcomes of international trade agreements. Second, it concludes that a model using the two-level logic has explanatory advantages over one that does not combine levels. Third, it points out the potential to combine elements from the two models to reach a more complete explanation.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
North America

6411. Government - Financial Sector Relations and the New Financial Structure in Mexico

Author:
Charles W. Parker III and Susan Minushikin
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
For the first time in its modern history, Mexico is confronting a financial sector that is controlled by foreign investors. At the same time it is highly concentrated. The economic challenges that such an industry structure presents were the focus of public debate over the sales of Bancomer and Banco Serfin. The political challenges have not yet become a part of the public debate. These include changing relations between the banks and the government. This paper traces the history of government-bank relations and speculates on how this relationship may change given the new structure of Mexico's financial sector.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

6412. Banking and Finance Assistance

Author:
Eugene Spiro
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The Banking and Finance Assistance Centre (BFAC) of the East West Institute is an independent, international centre whose mission is to provide assistance to financial sector leaders in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the former Soviet Union (FSU). BFAC was established in 1992 by the East West Institute in response to the need expressed by bank executives and finance officials in CEE for a centre to provide impartial, professional, technical advice and assistance in the course of designing and implementing reform initiatives. Supported, among others, by the EWI network and in particular the United States Agency for International Development, BFAC's projects also cover capital markets and pension reform and small- and medium-sized enterprise development.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Eastern Europe

6413. Inequality, Growth and Poverty in the Era of Liberalization and Globalization

Author:
Julius Court and Giovanni Andrea Cornia
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Eradicating poverty has become the international community's number one development objective. The overriding target—endorsed at the recent United Nations Millennium Summit by virtually all world leaders—is to reduce the incidence of income-poverty in developing countries from 30 percent to 15 percent between 1990 and 2015. The problem is that that further progress has stalled and the number of people living in poverty has remained at around 1.2 billion people—a fifth of the world's population.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Poverty

6414. Access to Land and Land Policy Reforms

Author:
Alaine de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Who should have access to land? What is the optimum definition of property rights and use rights in each particular context? Is government intervention justified to influence who has access to land and under what conditions? These questions remain, in most developing countries, highly contentious. It is indeed the case that land is all too often misallocated among potential users and worked under conditions of property or user rights that create perverse incentives. As a consequence, investments to enhance productivity are postponed, and responses to market incentives are weakened; many poor rural households are unable to gain sufficient (or any) access to land when this could be their best option out of poverty; land remains under-used and often idle side-by-side with unsatisfied demands for access to land; land is frequently abused by current users, jeopardizing sustainability; and violence over land rights and land use is all too frequent. With population growth and increasing market integration for the products of the land, these problems tend to become more acute rather than the reverse. As a result, rising pressures to correct these situations have led many countries to reopen the question of access to land and land policy reforms. While large scale expropriative and redistributive land reforms are generally no longer compatible with current political realities, there exist many alternative forms of property and use rights that offer policy instruments to alter the conditions of access to land and land use. A rich agenda of land policy interventions thus exists to alter who has access to land and under what conditions for the purposes of increasing efficiency, reducing poverty, enhancing sustainability, and achieving political stability.Historically, the most glamorous path of access to land has been through statemanaged coercive land reform. In most situations, however, this is not the dominant way land was accessed by current users and, in the future, this will increasingly be the case. Most of the land in use has been accessed through private transfers, community membership, direct appropriation, and market transactions. There are also new types of state-managed programmes of access to land that do not rely on coercion. For governments and development agents (NGOs, bi-lateral and international development agencies), the rapid decline in opportunities to access land through coercive land reform should thus not be seen as the end of the role of the state and development agents in promoting and altering access to land. The following paths of access to land in formal or informal, and in collective or individualized ownership can, in particular, be explored (Figure 1): (1) Intra-family transfers such as inheritances, inter-vivo transfers, and allocation of plots to specific family members; (2) access through community membership and informal land markets; (3) access through land sales markets; and (4) access through specific non-coercive policy interventions such colonization schemes, decollectivization and devolution, and land market-assisted land reform. Access to land in use can also be achieved through land rental markets (informal loans, land rental contracts) originating in any of these forms of land ownership. Each of these paths of access to land has, in turn, implications for the way land is used. Each can also be the object of policy interventions to alter these implications of land use. The focus of this policy brief is to explore each of these paths and analyse how to enhance their roles in helping increase efficiency, reduce poverty, increase equality, enhance sustainability, and achieve political stability.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

6415. Kosovo/a Standing Technical Working Group: 5th and 6th Session Economic Development and Reconstruction

Author:
Robert Curis and Camille Monteux
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The Standing Technical Working Group was established in March 2001 to address important issues of public policy in Kosovo/a at a technical level. It is composed of experts from Kosovo/a NGOs, from the parties and other civil society representatives. Its membership is fully interethnic and it prides itself on being able to conduct substantive debates about Kosovo/a in an interethnic way. In addition to reviewing technical aspects of policy, the group also formulates proposals and critical questions in relation to them. It then seeks to engage the international and Kosovo/a authorities on these issues. As the 5th and 6th session of the group were devoted to one common theme, it was found convenient to present the proceedings in one report.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe

6416. Macroeconomic Policy and Sustainability

Author:
Jonathan Harris
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
The trend in mainstream economic thought about macroeconomic policy has been towards minimalism. In the optimistic Keynesian phase of the 1960's, it was assumed that both fiscal and monetary policy were effective tools for macroeconomic management. But the influence of monetarist and New Classical critiques has led to a gradual erosion of theoretical support for activist government policy. First fiscal policy fell by the wayside, perceived as too slow and possibly counterproductive in its impacts. Then New Classical and rational expectations critiques suggested that even monetary policy was ineffective. Thus the role of government policy has been reduced to a cautious effort not to make things worse -- in effect a return to an economics of laissez- faire.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

6417. Dirt is in the Eye of the Beholder: The World Bank Air Pollution Intensities for Mexico

Author:
Kevin Gallagher, Francisco Aguayo, and Ana González
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
This paper identifies a number of errors and inconsistencies in a series of air pollution intensities for Mexico that were recently created by the World Bank. Because these data are being used to conduct public policy analysis and advice for Mexico and countries at similar levels of development, knowledge of the limits of these data is of utmost importance. In addition to identifying the problems with these data, this paper makes a series of adjustments to offer a corrected dataset. These newly corrected data are available on the World Bank's New Ideas in Pollution Regulation (NIPR) web page.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Mexico

6418. Agriculture in a Global Perspective

Author:
Jonathan Harris
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
In the twenty-first century, it is evident that world agricultural systems will have to supply sufficient food for a population somewhere between 7.5 and 12 billion. Projections for world agriculture in the first half of the twenty-first century very widely, largely depending on assumptions about yield growth. An investigation of the patterns of yield growth for major cereal crops offers evidence that the pattern is logistic, implying that an upper limit to yields is being approached. This pattern is consistent with ecological limits on soil fertility, water availability, and nutrient uptake. It is also evident that current agricultural production is imposing serious strains on ecosystems, with widespread soil degradation, water overdraft and pollution, and ecological impacts such as loss of biodiversity and the proliferation of resistant pest species.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, and Environment

6419. Community Control in a Global Economy: Lessons from Mexico's Economic Integration Process

Author:
Eliza Waters and Tim Wise
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
The North American Free Trade Agreement appeared to promise economic growth for Mexico and improved living conditions for its people. While the Mexican economy has recovered significantly from its post-NAFTA collapse, there is mounting evidence that many of the pre-NAFTA warnings of worsening poverty and deteriorating environmental conditions were true, if exaggerated. However one interprets the statistics, there is little doubt that the economic integration process, which began a full decade before NAFTA took effect, has created a significant restructuring of the Mexican economy, with some of the country's most vulnerable residents facing the harshest conditions.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
North America

6420. Civil Economy and Civilized Economics: Essentials for Sustainable Development

Author:
Neva Goodwin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
This essay will consider the relevance of the social sciences - especially economics - to the foundations of sustainable development. Looming environmental crises have served as a prime motivating force for reevaluating fundamental principles. In particular, the concept of sustainability, carrying with it clear requirements for values, goals and ethics, has begun to reshape economics. The broadest conception of sustainability is found if we understand sustainable development to mean Socially And Environmentally Just And Sustainable development - "SAEJAS development".
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

6421. The Taxing Task of Taxing Transnationals

Author:
Thomas A. Gresik
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Financial and real investment flexibility, tax competition, and superior economic information by transnationals both creates a rationale for corporate income taxation and limits the effectiveness of such taxation. While these factors have led to a variety of transnational tax policies, such as deferral, double taxation, apportionment, and trade rules, very few of these institutional features have been integrated into tax competition and agency models. This paper shows how the integration of investment flexibility, tax competition, and agency issues is crucial to our understanding of corporate tax policies.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

6422. Improving Upon Nature: Creating Competitive Advantage in Ceramic Tile Clusters in Italy, Spain, and Brazil

Author:
Jorg Meyer-Stamer, Silene Seibel, and Claudio Maggi
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
This paper shows how using a combination of a cluster and a global value chain approach helps to assess local competitive strategies and upgrading possibilities. The global ceramic tile industry is dominated by two industrial clusters, Sassuolo in Italy and Castellón in Spain, which are not only dominating tile production in their respective countries and in Europe but are also the global technology leaders and the leading exporters. The Italian tile manufacturers are closely linked with capital goods manufacturers, the Spanish with producers of glazing materials. The equipment and materials producers drive technical change and innovation in tile design, whereas the tile manufacturers try to establish a competitive advantage in particular by innovating in downstream activities: training tilers, establishing diversified brands for different sales channels, and going into direct sales. Analyzing the value chain, from inputs and capital goods to final sales, offers new insights into scope and alternatives of local upgrading. It also helps to reassess the competitiveness of tile clusters in the developing world. This is done for Brazil's leading cluster which is located in Santa Catarina. Tile firms there can benefit from the fierce rivalry among Italian capital goods producers and among Spanish producers of glazing materials, as well as the rivalry between Italy and Spain. They are technology followers. However, having to deal with a volatile and very competitive market, they are innovative in downstream activities, experimenting with concepts which are not yet used by Italian or Spanish manufacturers.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe, Brazil, Spain, and Italy

6423. A Mediterranean Economic Policy from Europe at the Enlargement Cross-Roads

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Admittedly, the results of the EU's economic policy towards the Mediterranean are to some extent disappointing. What do we have to do? Do all we need is to modify and improve such policy? Or do we have to bring in some more substantive changes? Is the policy disappointing in itself or because of the way it is implemented? Furthermore, we are aware that these questions come up in conjunction with the advancement of the EU enlargement to Eastern European countries. Thus, a further question is what is the impact of the enlargement on EU economic co-operation with the Mediterranean. According to EU's own decisions, there must be a link between enlargement and Euro-Med Partnership: that is a fair balance between enlargement towards the East and co-operation towards the South. Is indeed that balance there? or there is a polarisation towards the East which demands for corrections?
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

6424. Saudi-Italian Relations During the Reign of King Fahd

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the hundred years that have elapsed since the birth of Saudi Arabia many important developments and changes have affected both this country and Italy. Still, whereas Saudi Arabia has progressed with remarkable political stability, Italy has suffered numerous shocks: the crisis and fall, after World War I, of the nationalist elites which had made Italy an independent and united country in the 19th century; the fall of the Fascist regime and the Savoy monarchy at the end of World War II; the emergence, during the Cold War, of a Western democracy run by the classes which the nationalist elite had excluded from the process of independence; today, after the end of the Cold War, the fall of the Catholic and communist parties that dominated the Cold War domestic stage and the painful attempt to establish a less ideologically-based, more market-oriented and liberal-minded democracy in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Italy

6425. Linking Democracy and Development: An Idea for the Times

Author:
Lynda DeWitt
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
GOVERNMENT DOWNSIZING, new thinking about development, conducive host-country situations, and strong mission leadership are some of the most important factors prompting USAID staff to link democracy and governance (DG) activities with those of the Agency's other strategic goals. As a result, democratic principles such as participation, accountability, transparency, and responsiveness are now being incorporated into USAID's environmental, health, education, and economic growth efforts.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, Government, and Politics

6426. The Role Of Transition Assistance: The Case Of Kosovo

Author:
Glenn Slocum
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
The Center for Development Information and Evaluation (CDIE) has responsibility for conducting Agency-wide evaluations of USAID assistance topics of interest to USAID managers. In 2000, USAID initiated an evaluation of the role of transition assistance, with a specific emphasis on the role and activities of the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI). Transition assistance, as used here, refers to the OTI-administered programs providing flexible, short-term responses to help advance peaceful, democratic change in conflict-prone countries. This assistance is usually provided during the two-year critical period after conflict when countries are most vulnerable to renewed conflict or instability.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

6427. The Role Of Transition Assistance: The Case Of East Timor

Author:
Glenn Slocum and Jean DuRette
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
The Center for Development Information and Evaluation (CDIE) has responsibility for conducting Agency-wide evaluations on USAID assistance topics of interest to USAID managers. In 2000, USAID initiated an evaluation on the general role of transition assistance and specifically on the role and activities of the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI) in the Bureau of Humanitarian Response (BHR).
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

6428. Participation, Consultation, and Economic Reform in Africa: Economic Fora and the EG-DG Nexus

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
Economic restructuring, in spite of the social and political dislocations it can cause, remains an essential step in the process of growth and development for most developing countries. While conditions differ throughout the developing world, nearly all countries still struggle with the question of how to integrate economies in varying states of disrepair and non-competitiveness into the highly competitive global economy in a way that will provide for basic needs and ensure growth. At the same time, most of these countries are attempting to initiate or consolidate delicate and difficult transitions from authoritarian to democratic governance. This dual transition poses an important challenge for donors and others who support developing countries in their pursuit of democracy and growth.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

6429. Fieldwork Methodology for a CDIE Assessment of USAID and Poverty Reduction Approaches

Author:
Jonathan Sleeper and Lynn Salinger
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, U.N. agencies, many bilateral donors, and a number of developing countries have made poverty reduction their overarching development objective. The United States was a signatory in 1996 to the OECD/DAC's international development goals, which included halving of world poverty by 2015. Under the aegis of a comprehensive development framework which empowers national partners to design and implement their own development actions, debt relief for the world's most heavily indebted poor countries is being linked by the multinational development organizations to the development of national Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs).
Topic:
Development, Economics, Human Welfare, and Poverty
Political Geography:
United States

6430. Reducing Urban and Industrial Pollution in the Czech Republic

Author:
Steve Gale and Matthew Addison
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
A USAID project in the Czech Republic confronted air pollution at two levels: nationally, through a state environmental fund, and locally, through direct support to municipalities. The national approach proved to be far more effective. Results in Poland, though, suggest regional funds may be the ideal.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Human Welfare, Politics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Poland, and Czech Republic

6431. Reducing Urban and Industrial Pollution in India

Author:
Donald G. McClelland and Mark Hodges
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
An emerging industrial power, India faces major pollution problems. USAID has undertaken to help abate the release of emissions and effluents into the air and water using American technologies—thus helping U.S. firms as well. Significant success has been observed, but lack of solid baseline data obscures the actual extent of USAID's role.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
America, South Asia, India, and Asia

6432. Urban and Industrial Pollution Programs: Russia Case Study

Author:
Matthew Addison, Mark Hodges, Steven Gale, and Nick Wedeman
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
Since the official dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has moved forward to make the difficult transition to open markets and more democratic institutions. The journey toward a complete restructuring of the Russian economy and an adoption of wide-ranging political reforms has been perilous. Political instability continues, crime and corruption have become more widespread, and economic conditions show little sign of improving quickly. Efforts to privatize state-held industries, initially seen as wildly successful, have now met with resistance, and full citizen involvement in government is far from complete.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

6433. Complex Emergencies And USAID's Humanitarian Response

Author:
Lynda DeWitt
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
In 1998 some 32 million people needed humanitarian assistance because they were caught up in complex emergencies (armed conflicts or civil wars). That same year, the United States spent $898 million on humanitarian assistance. This amount represented 10.2 percent of official development assistance and was more than triple the amount spent on humanitarian assistance in 1990.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

6434. India: Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction During the 1990s

Author:
Catherine G. Corey
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
The fiscal crisis that struck India in 1991, as the result of myriad internal and external factors, compelled the nation to adopt a series of economic reforms and liberalization policies. The genesis of the fiscal crisis lay partly in the highly protected domestic economy that maintained extensive subsidization, licensing and investment regulations, thus placing considerable burdens on the expenditures of the central government. Compounding this problem was a rapidly expanding current account deficit that had grown over time as import demand steadily increased and exports and foreign investment lagged. These conditions, in combination with external factors, generated a severe balance of payments crisis in which India came perilously close to defaulting on loans from international lenders. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narasimha Rao and Financial Minister Manmohan Singh, the Indian government initiated a series of macroeconomic reforms. This included reductions in fiscal expenditure, privatization of state-run industries, promotion of foreign investment, and liberalization of international trade policy.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
Political Geography:
South Asia and Asia

6435. Aftermath: Women and Women's Organizations In Postconflict Societies: The Role Of International Assistance

Author:
Krishna Kumar
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
<p> Since the end of the Cold War, intrastate conflicts have increased worldwide. Poverty, the struggle for scarce resources, declining standards of living, ethnic rivalries and divisions, political repression by authoritarian governments, and rapid social and economic modernization—all these factors contribute to intrastate conflicts. <br /><br /> All intrastate conflicts share a set of common characteristics that have major implications for women and gender relations. First, the belligerent parties deliberately inflict violence on civilian populations. Second, the intrastate conflicts displace substantial numbers of people, mostly women and children. Third, women’s participation in war contributes to the redefinition of their identities and traditional roles. Fourth, there is usually a conscious attempt to destroy the supporting civilian infrastructure, leading to increased poverty and starvation. Finally, these conflicts leave among the belligerent groups within the countries a legacy of bitterness, hatred, and anger that is difficult to heal. </p><blockquote><p> </p> </blockquote><p>  </p><p> </p><p> </p>
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Gender Issues, Human Welfare, Politics, and War

6436. Aftermath: Women and Women's Organizations In Postconflict Societies

Author:
Krishna Kumar
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, intrastate conflicts have increased worldwide. Poverty, the struggle for scarce resources, declining standards of living, ethnic rivalries and divisions, political repression by authoritarian governments, and rapid social and economic modernization—all these factors contribute to intrastate conflicts.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, Human Welfare, Politics, and War

6437. Linking Democracy and Development: An Idea for the Times

Author:
Hal Lippman
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
IN THE POST–COLD WAR ERA, a variety of factors, some internal to USAID, some external, have prompted the emergence of linkages between democracy and governance (DG) programs and those of the Agency's other strategic goals. Downsizing, conducive host-country situations, shifts in thinking about development, and creative leaders and staff all have spurred the incorporation of democratic principles into Agency activities. In some missions, accountability, participation, responsiveness, and transparency are now an integral part of environmental, economic growth, health, and education activities. And missions have found they are achieving positive results and bolstered governance, creating synergy that promotes USAID's overall mission.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Government, and Politics

6438. Aftermath: Internally Displaced Women and Women's Organizations in Postconflict Georgia

Author:
Pat McNees
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
ALL POST-SOVIET STATES underwent difficult political and economic transitions in the years after the breakup of the Soviet Union, but Georgia's was especially traumatic. Ethnic conflict broke out in Georgia virtually as soon as the Soviet Union collapsed. By 1992, Georgia's central authority had been diminished to near anarchy, the economy was in complete disarray, and the country had plunged into civil war that tore its fabric.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Education, Gender Issues, and Migration
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Georgia

6439. Urban and Industrial Pollution Programs: Czech Republic Case Study

Author:
Matthew Addison, Steven Gale, Keith Forbes, and Michael Gould
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
In 1995 USAID Launched the Environmental Action Program Support Project. EAPS grew out of a 1993 international conference held in Lucerne, Switzerland, to develop a joint environmental action program. The project sought to decrease environmental degradation in six central and eastern European countries that were making the transition from centrally controlled economies and authoritarian governments to open markets and more democratic institutions. The Czech Republic was the first USAID-assisted country where EAPS was implemented.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Switzerland, and Czech Republic

6440. Pathways of Property Transformation: Enterprise Network Careers in Hungary, 1988-2000 Outline of an Analytic Strategy

Author:
Balázs Vedres and David Stark
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
This study analyzes the restructuring of a national economy by identifying the career pathways of its enterprises. This analysis is conducted in a setting strategically chosen as a case of rapid and profound economic transformation: the postsocialist Hungarian economy between 1988-2000. The goal of this study is to chart the multiple pathways of property transformation. Property pathways are conceptualized as the patterned sequences of change that firms undergo 1) in the composition of their ownership structure and 2) in their position within network structures of ties to other enterprises. These career pathways are neither unidirectional nor plotted in advance. The landscape and topography of the socioeconomic field are given shape and repeatedly transformed by the interaction of the multiple strategies of firms attempting to survive in the face of variable political, institutional, and market uncertainties. These different types of uncertainties will have different temporalities, and the study explores whether and how they increase or diminish in various periods. We develop and test specific hypotheses about how enterprise pathways along the compositional and positional property dimensions are related to the shifting contexts of these types of uncertainty. The core dataset for this study includes the complete ownership histories of approximately 1,800 of the largest enterprises in Hungary for a twelve year period, starting with the collapse of communism in 1989, recording each change in a company's top 25 owners on a monthly basis. Monthly entries for each enterprise also include changes in top management, boards of directors, major lines of product activity, raising or lowering of capital, and location of establishments and branch offices, as well as the dates of founding, mergers, bankruptcy, etc. Data on revenues, number of employees, and operating profit will be compiled from annual balance sheets. These rich data make it possible to map the life cycles of the business groups that are formed by network ties among enterprises, identifying not only when they arise, merge, or dissipate, but also the changing shapes of their network properties. To identify patterns of change, the study draws on sequence analysis, a research tool that makes possible the study of historical processes in an eventful way similar to historiography while retaining social scientific abstraction. Whereas sequence analysis has given us a perspective on careers as historical processes but has not been applied to business organizations, network analysis has been applied to business organizations but has not been done historically. The methodological innovation at the heart of this study is to combine the tools of sequence analysis and network analysis to yield a sequence analysis of changing network positions.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Hungary

6441. Distributing Intelligence and Organizing Diversity in New Media Projects

Author:
Monique Girard and David Starkj
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
This paper examines how web design firms in the emergent new media industry probe and experiment with possible forms and sources of value giving shape to the new economy. Focusing on the collaborative engineering of cross-disciplinary web-design project teams, we examine how websites emerge as provisional settlements among the heterogeneous disciplines as they negotiate working compromises across competing performance criteria.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Intelligence, and Science and Technology

6442. Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time-Series-Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure

Author:
Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman, and Sharyn O'Halloran
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
This paper investigates a variety of dynamic probit models for time-series–cross-section data in the context of explaining state failure. It shows that ordinary probit, which ignores dynamics, is misleading. Alternatives that seem to produce sensible results are the transition model and a model which includes a lagged latent dependent variable. It is argued that the use of a lagged latent variable is often superior to the use of a lagged realized dependent variable. It is also shown that the latter is a special case of the transition model. The relationship between the transition model and event history methods is also considered: the transition model estimates an event history model for both values of the dependent variable, yielding estimates that are identical to those produced by the two event history models. Furthermore, one can incorporate the insights gleaned from the event history models into the transition analysis, so that researchers do not have to assume duration independence. The conclusion notes that investigations of the various models have been limited to data sets which contain long sequences of zeros; models may perform differently in data sets with shorter bursts of zeros and ones.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and France

6443. Self-Control for the Righteous: toward a Theory of Luxury Pre-Commitment

Author:
Ran Kivetz and Itamar Simonson
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Prior research has examined consumers' use of self-control to avoid hedonic (myopic) temptations, such as overbuying and smoking. We propose that consumers often exercise the opposite form of self-control, whereby they attempt to avoid default forms of spending on necessities and savings in favor of luxury, hedonic purchases. In particular, given the difficulty of choosing hedonic luxury items over necessities and cash in everyday (local) decisions, under certain conditions, consumers pre-commit to hedonic luxury consumption. Such pre-commitments to hedonic luxuries are more likely to occur when their psychological cost is less concrete. These propositions were tested in a series of studies involving real and hypothetical choices as well as process measures. The results indicate that a substantial segment of consumers choose hedonic luxury prizes over cash of equal or greater value; most of these consumers explain such choices as motivated by the need to pre-commit in order to guarantee a hedonic luxury experience and that the award does not end up in the pool of money used for necessities. In addition, consistent with our analysis, the likelihood of pre-committing to hedonic luxuries is enhanced when (a) the consequences of the decision will be realized farther in the future, (b) the odds of winning the reward are lower, and (c) consumers anticipate how they will use each possible award. We also show that hedonic luxury awards are more effective than cash as incentives for participation in a (real) lottery. The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

6444. An Empirical Comparison of Bundesbank and ECB Monetary Policy Rules

Author:
John H. Rogers, Jonathan H. Wright, and Jon Faust
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We estimate a monetary policy reaction function for the Bundesbank and use it as a benchmark to assess the monetary policy of the ECB since the launch of the euro in January 1999. We find that euro interest rates are low relative to this benchmark. We consider several possible reasons for this, including the divergence between core and headline inflation, inflation having turned out to be higher than could have been foreseen by the ECB and the possibility that the ECB is focussing only on macroeconomic conditions in a subset of member countries. We argue that these potential explanations cannot account for the difference between recent interest rates and our estimated Bundesbank benchmark. Our results suggest that the reaction function of the ECB features a high weight on the output gap relative to the weight on inflation, compared to the Bundesbank.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6445. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Author:
Jane Ihrig and Joseph E. Gagon
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The pass-through of exchange rate changes into domestic inflation appears to have declined in many countries since the 1980s. We develop a theoretical model that attributes the change in the rate of pass-through to increased emphasis on inflation stabilization by many central banks. This hypothesis is tested on twenty industrial countries between 1971 and 2003. We find widespread evidence of a robust and statistically significant link between estimated rates of pass-through and inflation variability. We also find evidence that observed monetary policy behavior may be a factor in the declining rate of pass-through.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6446. Battling International Bribery 2001

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The battle against international bribery and other forms of public corruption remains a high priority for the United States. As President George W. Bush stated in his May 2001 message to the Second Global Forum on Fighting Corruption, “The corruption of governmental institutions threatens our common interests in promoting political and economic stability, upholding core democratic values, ending the reign of dictators, and creating a level playing field for lawful business activities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6447. Permanent and Transitory Components of Business Cycles: Their Relative Importance and Dynamic Relationship

Author:
Chang-Jin Kim, Jeremy Piger, and Richard Startz
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper investigates the relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. recessions in an empirical model allowing for business cycle asymmetry. Using a common stochastic trend representation for real GNP and consumption, we divide real GNP into permanent and transitory components, the dynamics of which are different in booms vs. recessions. We find evidence of substantial asymmetries in postwar recessions, and that both the permanent and transitory component have contributed to these recessions. We also allow for the timing of switches from boom to recession for the permanent component to be correlated with switches from boom to recession in the transitory component. The parameter estimates suggest a specific pattern of recessions: switches in the permanent component lead switches in the transitory component both when entering and leaving recessions.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

6448. The Use of Cyclical Indicators in Estimating the Output Gap in Japan

Author:
Jane Haltmaier
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The paper uses capital and labor utilization rates to derive estimates of the Japanese output gap and potential output. Two techniques are used. The first uses the cyclical indicators to adjust potential output estimates derived from a Hodrick-Prescott filter over the most recent period when such estimates are generally considered to be unreliable. The second estimates equilibrium levels of the cyclical indicators and uses an Okun's Law-type relationship to derive output gaps and potential output. The second method is also applied to the components of potential output to derive a third estimate. These methods suggest that the current Japanese output gap is considerably larger than a simple Hodrick-Prescott filter would suggest.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Japan

6449. Home Bias and High Turnover Reconsidered

Author:
Francis E. Warnock
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Tesar and Werner (1995) finding of very high turnover rates on foreign equity portfolios is based on an underestimation of cross-border equity positions. Foreign turnover rates calculated using information from comprehensive benchmark surveys on cross-border holdings are much lower than previously reported and comparable to domestic turnover rates. However, the basic intuition from the Tesar-Werner study, that transaction costs do not help explain the observed home bias, is confirmed using data on transaction costs in 41 markets.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6450. A Retrospective on J. Denis Sargan and His Contributions to Econometrics

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson, Esfandiar Maasoumi, and Grayham E. Mizon
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This retrospective provides a biographical history of Denis Sargan's career and reviews his contributions to econometrics, emphasizing the breadth of his work in both theoretical and applied econometrics. We include a complete bibliography for Denis and a list of PhD theses that he supervised--students were a substantive facet of his professional life. Finally, two of Denis's previously unpublished manuscripts on model building now appear in print.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States