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12. Why a Traditional Austerity Plan Would Exacerbate Lebanon’s Woes
- Author:
- Mounir Mahmalat
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Following the eruption of mass protests in autumn 2019, Lebanon’s economy slid into a deep financial and economic crisis. Given the magnitude of Lebanon’s contemporary economic woes, a bailout program with participation by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) appears unavoidable. However, while a bailout program could avoid formal default and cushion the immediate effects of financial impasse, the austerity measures that will come attached are unlikely to achieve their goals. This article argues that in clientelist polities with weak states such as Lebanon’s, austerity programs carry the risk of leaving unaddressed the underlying inefficiencies that led to economic decline in the first place. Instead of prioritizing budgetary measures and spending cuts in a conditional reform program, international donors should seize this novel window of opportunity to legitimize a reform plan with popular demands. Measures to increase judiciary independence and political accountability in particular bear a larger potential than austerity measures alone to change politics and finally create a sustainable economic model.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Austerity, Sustainability, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
13. A Review of Pillar I & II of Zambia’s Economic Stabilisation and Growth Programme 2017-2019
- Author:
- Florence Banda-Muleya, Shebo Nalishebo, Mbewe Kalikeka, Nakubyana Mungomba, Ignatius Masilokwa, and Caesar Cheelo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- The economic crisis of 2015 destabilised Zambia’s economic performance. The depreciation of the Kwacha and its pass-through effects led to inflation of as high as 22% and growth, at 2.9%, was far below the 5% target. The overall Budget deviation was 15% of Parliamentary appropriations in 2015, disrupting planned activities and attainment of set macroeconomic objectives. There were huge variations between what the consequent national Budgets committed to do and what they actually did. To fix this and nudge the country back towards high sustained economic growth, the Economic Stabilisation and Growth Programme (ESGP) was crafted in 2017. The five-pillar plan aimed to ensure prudent fiscal management by providing a system of accountability and a standard against which results could be measured, among other things. The aim of this paper is to review the ESGP, particularly, its performance in 2018. The paper sets out to understand how well Zambia faired in implementing the ESGP as well as to highlight the broader fiscal trends recently. It ultimately seeks to make recommendations about how Zambia can revive its path to economic stability and growth. The paper focuses tightly on the first two pillars of the ESGP, i.e. (i) restoring budget credibility; and (ii) enhancing domestic resource mobilisation and refocusing public expenditure. The remaining three pillars are slated to be reviewed in the second half of 2019.
- Topic:
- Budget, Finance, Economic Growth, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
14. Explaining Bank Stability Using Bank Specific Factors in Zimbabwe
- Author:
- Albert Muparuri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This study examined the role played by bank specific factors in explaining bank stability in Zimbabwe. A panel data set was compiled covering 15 CAMEL type ratios from all 26 banking institutions which were operational in Zimbabwe between 2009 and 2014. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Random Effects (RE) model were applied to establish the statistically significant CAMEL type bank distress prognosticators in Zimbabwe. This study revealed that Capital, Asset Quality and Earnings (CAE), are the most statistically significant bank specific factors which influence distress in the Zimbabwean market. On the macroeconomic front, statistical significance was established on the ‘end-period Consumer Price Index (CPI)’ in determining bank stability in Zimbabwe. This implies that a deteriorating asset quality base in a bank with a feeble capital base and weak earnings in a market dogged by inflation instability is a classic precursor to bank distress in Zimbabwe.
- Topic:
- Economics, Banks, Banking, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
15. Good and Bad Banking on Europe’s Periphery: Pathways to Catching Up and Falling Behind
- Author:
- Rachel A. Epstein and Martin Rhodes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
- Abstract:
- In this paper we seek to explain why bank performance has varied so dramatically during and after the financial crisis on Europe’s periphery, both across states and within them. Our dependent variable is bank performance defined in terms of credit provision and banks’ contribution to financial stability. Our independent variable is the particular mix at play between political/social purpose and what we call ‘market authority’ - the importance of market incentives, signals and pricing within a particular financial ‘ecosystem’. “Economic nationalism” or the politicization of local and regional banks has often imbued banks with social and political goals, serving the economy at different levels, and is one major source of political/social purpose. But the latter must be constrained by market authority. We argue that for optimal bank performance, economic nationalism or political/social purpose must be constrained by market authority, otherwise a political logic (e.g. cronyism, a lack of professionalism, and deficits in banking expertise) can easily subvert or distort credit provision and undermine financial stability.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Financial Crisis, Finance, Banking, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16. Afghanistan Stabilization Program: A Summary of Research and Key Outcome Trends
- Author:
- Radha Iyengar and Jacob N. Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- To provide evidence about which programs best foster stability in fragile and conflict-affected areas we systematically review the relationship between stabilization programming and a broad range of outcomes in Afghanistan. Following a pre-analysis plan, we reviewed 89 existing studies from government, policy think tanks, and academic journals from over 15 years and statistically analyzed data from a range of sources from 2009 to 2015. While we compile a relatively comprehensive set of data, our analysis is based on a subset of stabilization programming the lack of a central repository of reliable data on program spending limited the analysis—because data were kept in disparate locations and never consolidated our quantitative analysis. Overall, we find that some stabilization programming is correlated with small, short-term improvements in support for the Afghan government, perceived access to health care, and economic activity despite the fact that these programs typically targeted more violent areas. We note that the size of this effect was small relative to the overall trends in key security, economic, and attitudinal outcomes over the same period and does not necessarily indicate a direct causal impact of these programs. This positive correlation was primarily observed for relatively low dollar programs (which in some cases were conducted over large parts of a region or country). Qualitative evidence suggests this may be because these smaller programs are easier to administer and less susceptible to corruption. These effects were not sustained beyond one year, suggesting limited scope for long-term or sustainable changes. The lessons our analysis suggest that modest programs with bounded expectations on the size and duration of impact must be included in considerations of future stabilization efforts. We also recommend that future programs collect higher quality data, coordinate their evaluation efforts among donors, plan ahead by building in reporting requirements, and make effective use of new technologies to be facilitated programming that is more adaptive to the conditions on the ground. As these best practices are incorporated, policymakers and implementers can enable better design and implementation of stabilization projects in conflict-affected areas in the future.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Security, War on Terror, Strategic Stability, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
17. The Personal Wealth Interests of Politicians and the Stabilization of Financial Markets
- Author:
- Ahmed Tahoun and Laurence van Lent
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- We examine whether personal wealth interests affect politicians’ decisions about stabilizing financial markets. We use the setting of the government’s support of financial institutions under the 2008 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. We find that the personal wealth interests of politicians are positively associated with voting in favor of the EESA. We implement several analyses to show that personal wealth interests rather than unobservable beliefs in the financial sector explain our result.
- Topic:
- Financial Markets, Economic Stability, Economic Crisis, and Wealth
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
18. Kosovo Security Barometer - Fourth Edition
- Author:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- The fourth edition of the KSB provides a summary of public perceptions on: security and justice institutions; risks and threats towards citizens and economic stability; and internal and external threats. Compared to the previous versions, this edition of the KSB includes respondents’ answers to a set of additional questions pertaining to data protection. The survey was carried out in the second half of October 2014, through face-to-face interviews conducted around Kosovo.The national sample from which the research was drawn featured 1,101 households, following a representative sample of the population above 18 years old in Kosovo. The ethnic breakdown of the interviewed respondents used for the purposes of this ediction of the KSB was: 87.92percent K-Albanian, 9.08 percent K-Serbian, and 3 percent others (Bosnian 1.0 percent, Turks 1.0 percent, and RAE 1.0 percent). Perceptions presented in this report are a summary of information gathered from respondents and it only demonstrates how people perceive these institutions. Hence, this report does not represent a conclusive assessment of the quality of the work of the institutions subject to this study.
- Topic:
- Security, Public Opinion, Privacy, Institutions, Survey, Economic Stability, and Data Collection
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans
19. Economic Policy Coordination in the EMU: From Maastricht via SGP to the Fiscal Pact
- Author:
- Jørgen Mortensen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- The present paper first takes a step backwards with an attempt to situate the adoption of this Treaty in discussion of the SGP and the “Maastricht criteria” (the criteria for EMU membership fixed in the Maastricht Treaty) in a longer perspective of the sharing of competences for macroeconomic policy making within the EU from the initial Treaty to the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). It then presents the main features of the Fiscal Treaty and its relation to the SGP and draws some conclusions as regards the importance and relevance of this new step in the process of economic policy coordination. It concludes that the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union does not seem to offer a definitive solution to the problem of finding the appropriate budgetary-monetary policy mix in the EMU already well identified in the Delors report in 1989 and regularly emphasised ever since and now seriously aggravated due to the Crisis. Furthermore, the implementation of this Treaty may under certain circumstances contribute to an increase in the uncertainties as regards the distribution of the competences between the European Parliament.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Treaties and Agreements, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Eurozone, Trade, Economic Integration, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe
20. Iran in the 10th Year of the 2nd Gulf War
- Author:
- BILGESAM
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- The second Gulf War ended the Ba’ath regime in Iraq, exhausted by wars and embargoes for 23 years. Because of the war Iraq plunged into chaos and came almost to the verge of a de facto disintegration. The War has not only changed the internal balances in Iraq but also affected the Middle Eastern geopolitics profoundly. While a new political structure had been created in Iraq reflecting the primacy of the majority Shiite groups, the de facto autonomy of Kurdish groups in the north, which have developed close relations with the USA, has gradually gained a constitutional character. The PKK terrorist organization recovered during this period increased its maneuvering capability in northern Iraq and Qandil Mountain and intensified its attacks against Turkey. Following the withdrawal of USA troops at the end of 2011, instability in Iraqi politics has deteriorated and it was observed that that emerging power vacuum is being filled to a large extent by Iran. The “Iraq in the Tenth Year of the Second Gulf War” report pay attention to Iraqi actors, the emerging state structure and the political-economic situation of the country, as well as the way how the emerging power vacuum affects the region and Turkey. The report analyzes the deepening political instability and internal disputes in the post-US Iraq, Turkey’s relations with the central government and the Kurdish Administration in the north. The report also tries to explore the future of the ongoing political and economic instability in Iraq and provides the Turkish decision-makers with recommendations for Turkey’s national interests.
- Topic:
- Economics, Conflict, Kurds, Gulf War, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
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