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1. Empire Salon | William Smith | Oct 14 2020

Author:
William Smith
Publication Date:
12-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:
William Smith, a distinguished former student of Committee Board member Claes Ryn, has written an insightful book on the realistic and restrained foreign policy tradition of the United States. Smith highlights the great Harvard scholar, Irving Babbitt, with his clear understanding of the crooked timber of man -- especially when acting collectively -- which reduces moral inhibitions against violence. James Madison explained in Federalist 55, “Had every Athenian citizen been a Socrates; every Athenian assembly would still have been a mob.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Imperialism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2. Kuwait Country Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since the last Arab Barometer survey in Kuwait, conducted in 2022, major changes have taken place, significantly affecting political stability in the country. While political life in Kuwait was saturated with crises, and its indicators were clearly visible in the dissolution of the National Assembly (Parliament) repeatedly before completing its term, the shifts, changes, and political instability that dominated the public arena, between late 2022 and the current period of 2024, included even more severe events. Kuwait faced the unconstitutional dissolution of the National Assembly and the suspension of some articles in the constitution, now for the third time in Kuwait’s history. The first two such crises were in 1967 and 1986. To summarize the events that took place from June 2022 until the dissolution of the Parliament and the suspension of the constitution in May 2024, they are as follows: On August 3, 2022, the National Assembly was dissolved constitutionally, in response to the sit-in of a number of MPs inside the Parliament and their overnight stay there. The Crown Prince (the current Emir) gave a speech in which he emphasized adherence to the constitution, and also presented initiatives in electoral reform. He emphasized that the government would not vote for the candidate for the speaker of the National Assembly, and that the elections would be through the national ID card (effectively changing electoral circuits). The protesting MPs considered these reforms a victory. As a result, Ahmed al-Nawaf was appointed Prime Minister
Topic:
Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Health, Migration, Governance, Democracy, Economy, Discrimination, Institutions, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kuwait

3. Can Indonesia Fight Disinformation Without Oppression?

Author:
Ika Idris and Eka Nugraha Putrais
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:
Indonesia is attempting to regulate disinformation and foreign propaganda, risking the country’s democracy, which is already in decline.
Topic:
Democracy, Institutions, Propaganda, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

4. Political participation across generational cohorts in Uganda

Author:
Ssenkumba Muhammad and Kamal Yakubu
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Drawing on Bartels and Jackman’s (2014) generational model of political learning, which posits that political attitudes and behaviours are shaped by the historical contexts in which individuals come of age, this study examines whether generational cohorts differ in patterns of political participation in Uganda. We identify three cohorts corresponding to key phases of Uganda’s political history: Gen A, socialised during periods of political instability prior to the Museveni era; Gen B, shaped under the one-party regime; and Gen C, who came of age following the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 2005. Using Afrobarometer Round 10 (2024) data from a nationally representative sample of adult Ugandans, we employ binary and ordinal logistic regression models to examine participation in both conventional and unconventional political activities. The results show that older cohorts are more likely to engage in conventional forms of participation, such as voting and contacting elected representatives, while younger cohorts exhibit greater participation in unconventional activities, particularly protests. To assess whether these patterns reflect cohort-specific political socialisation or age-related life-cycle effects, we replicate the analysis using comparable Afrobarometer data from Tanzania, a country with a distinct political history. The Tanzanian results reveal broadly similar generational patterns in conventional participation, suggesting that these differences may reflect age-related dynamics rather than cohort-specific socialisation alone. However, the specific unconventional repertoires through which generational differences manifest appear to be conditioned by each country’s political environment. These findings call into question strong cohort based interpretations of political participation and underscore the importance of distinguishing generational from life-cycle effects in studies of political behaviour in Africa.
Topic:
Democracy, Freedom, Political Participation, and Citizen Engagement
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and East Africa

5. Coethnics covote in Africa: Studying electoral cleavages with a covoting regression model

Author:
Carl Müller-Crepon and Nils-Christian Bormann
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Ethnicity is an important cleavage in Africa, yet its influence on voting is contested. Existing micro-level analyses often focus on electoral support for a subset of candidates or parties, while meso- and macro-level approaches infer individual motivations from aggregate outcomes. The risk of selection bias arises from the former approach, while omitted-variable bias may result from the latter. Our new covoting regression (CVR) tackles several of these challenges. It estimates the effect of coethnicity on the probability that pairs of voters covote for the same party/candidate while conditioning on other characteristics shared between them. Thereby, CVR mirrors the micro foundations of widely used aggregate indicators, such as the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of party concentration and ethnic homogeneity. Our data consist of dyadic comparisons between respondents from Afrobarometer surveys. Pooling across 27 countries, coethnicity increases covoting intentions by 17 percentage points. The effect of coethnicity is driven by politically relevant groups and covoting for ethnic parties. It is consistent across institutionally diverse countries and at least four times larger than that of other cleavages. Beyond ethnicity, we address key issues in studying electoral consequences of socioeconomic cleavages and bridge gaps between levels of analysis.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Ethnicity, and Voting
Political Geography:
Africa

6. Strengthening Democracy, Deepening Practice, and Shapingthe Future of Governance in Central Africa

Author:
Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Democracy in Central Africa is at a critical juncture. While citizen demand for accountability hasgrown, political instability, fragile institutions, and shrinking civic space continue to underminedemocratic progress. Elections, though increasingly frequent, remain high-stakes events that caneither strengthen legitimacy or expose systemic weaknesses. Ensuring transparency, credibility,and institutional resilience is therefore essential. This policy brief argues that the region’s democratic future depends on translating continentalnorms into national practice, strengthening institutions, and cultivating a civically literate publiccapable of sustaining democratic culture. Without these foundations, reforms risk remainingsymbolic rather than transformative.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Africa and Central Africa

7. Commentary: Democracy, Democratization, Institutions, and Inequality: Nobel-Winning Insights from Daron Acemoglu and His Collaborators

Author:
Ali Resul Usul
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This paper explores the seminal contributions of Daron Acemoglu and his collaborators to the understanding of democracy, democratization, institutions, and inequality, as recognized by the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. It delves into the stability and erosion of democratic institutions, emphasizing the interplay between historical legacies, class structures, and strategic political interactions. The analysis synthesizes insights from rational choice theory, historical institutionalism, and comparative political economy, highlighting the critical role of both formal and informal institutions in shaping political outcomes. Key concepts such as critical junctures, path dependence, and the dynamic balance between state capacity and societal power— termed the “Red Queen effect”—are examined to explain the persistence and transformation of political regimes. The paper also addresses the implications of economic inequality for democratic stability and the continuous process of adaptation required to maintain inclusive institutions. By integrating theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence, this work provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the complex dynamics of democratization and offers policy recommendations for strengthening democratic resilience in the face of contemporary challenges.
Topic:
Democratization, Democracy, Inequality, Institutions, and Path Dependence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Democracy and its discontented: What drives demand for democracy in South Africa?

Author:
Rehan Visser
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Support for democracy rests on a range of foundations. Citizens may value democracy intrinsically, as the most legitimate form of rule regardless of outcomes, or instrumentally, as a system judged by its capacity to deliver material well-being, security, and effective governance. Understanding which of these logics predominates is central to assessing the resilience of democratic regimes. In the early years after the end of White-minority rule, South Africans were more likely than their continental peers to evaluate democracy in material terms, valuing it for what it could deliver rather than for its inherent virtues. Attitudes were closely tied to assessments of government performance and expectations of improvements in quality of life (Bratton & Mattes, 2001). As the regime matured, delivery of political goods entered the equation (Mattes, 2012). A generation after apartheid’s end, it is worth returning to this question: Is demand for democracy in South Africa still performance-driven?
Topic:
Government, Governance, Democracy, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

9. Whom do African election campaigns contact? And does it matter?

Author:
Robert Mattes, Matthias Krönke, and Sarah J. Lockwood
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Canvassing is an important way in which political parties around the world raise awareness and connect with voters. Despite this, the literature on parties in new democracies, and Africa in particular, has tended to overlook this form of activity, focusing instead on vote buying, mass rallies, and meetings. In this paper, we use public opinion survey data from Afrobarometer and the Comparative National Elections Project to show that overall rates of canvassing in Africa are similar to other new, as well as many established, democracies. The data also challenge several dominant views of party campaigns in the Africanist literature. First, African parties do not concentrate primarily on turning out their base, rather than reaching across the partisan divide. Indeed, the opposite is the case. African parties expend more energy contacting nonpartisan independents and cross-partisans, and thus make a potentially meaningful contribution to the supply of multiparty competition. Second, the vast majority of contacts occur without any clientelist exchanges of material goods between parties and individual voters. And third, while incumbent parties enjoy canvassing advantages over opposition parties in around one-third of the surveyed countries, opposition parties (viewed collectively) match the party in power in terms of the ground game in another third, and enjoy higher rates of contact in yet another third.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Africa

10. Generative AI, Democracy and Human Rights

Author:
David Evan Harris and Aaron Shull
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Disinformation is not new, but given how disinformation campaigns are constructed, there is almost no stage that will not be rendered more effective by the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI). Given the unsatisfactory nature of current tools to address this budding reality, disinformation, especially during elections, is set to get much, much worse. As these campaigns become more sophisticated and manipulative, the foreseeable consequence will be a further erosion of trust in institutions and a heightened disintegration of civic integrity, which in turn will jeopardize a host of human rights, including electoral rights and the right to freedom of thought. In this policy brief, David Evan Harris and Aaron Shull argue that policy makers must hold AI companies liable for the harms caused or facilitated by their products that could have been reasonably foreseen, act quickly to ban using AI to impersonate real persons or organizations, and require the use of watermarking or other provenance tools to allow people to distinguish between AI-generated and authentic content.
Topic:
Human Rights, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, Disinformation, Generative Models, and Freedom of Thought
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. Democratic Recovery After Significant Backsliding: Emergent Lessons

Author:
Thomas Carothers and McKenzie Carrier
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In a global political landscape marked by twenty years of widespread democratic backsliding, some good news exists: in a handful of countries where leaders significantly undercut democratic norms and institutions, elections have brought to power new leadership with a strong declared commitment to restoring democracy.
Topic:
Democracy, Institutions, Democratic Backsliding, and Global Politics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Will Kuwait’s Parliamentary Democracy Be Restored, Reformed, or Repudiated?

Author:
Omar Al Jasser and Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Kuwaitis are accustomed to a domestic political scene that sometimes resembles a soap opera with shifting characters and much melodrama but no resolution. For over a generation, fiercely contested parliamentary elections have consistently produced fractured parliaments that clash with individual ministers, leading to confrontation, parliamentary grilling, and dissolutions of cabinets and parliaments that are replaced by new bodies that merely resume the tussle. But on May 10, 2024, the soap opera abruptly came to an end. Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad, the newly enthroned emir, not only dissolved the recently elected parliament but also suspended the body indefinitely, promising a four-year process of constitutional revision. While the step was dramatic, the extent and nature of further change remains unclear. The suspension is forcing all Kuwaiti political actors to direct their attention to portentous long-term issues rather than more ephemeral short-term drama, but so far there is little indication of how the issues will be resolved. The drama of daily crises has often obscured far more significant evolutionary trends. Over the six decades of its existence, the Kuwaiti constitution’s text has not changed, but the way key institutions operate (parliament in particular) and the way they interact (especially cabinet-parliamentary relations) have changed significantly. The suspension of parliament came largely in response to ruler frustrations with this dichotomy and the feeling that parliaments lead to gridlock, grandstanding, and corruption. Has a governing system that seemed to offer so much noise and motion but little movement come to a full stop? Will Kuwait rejoin its neighbors and abandon its experiment with powerful parliaments? Other parliamentary bodies on the Arabian Peninsula are generally more limited in their prerogatives, and elections are either avoided or constrained; notably, Qatar abandoned elections in favor of an appointed assembly six months after the Kuwaiti parliamentary suspension. Or will Kuwait instead simply revert back to its old system after a cooling-off period or in response to popular pressure (as happened twice in the past)? At this point, it is uncertain whether Kuwait’s style of parliamentary democracy will be restored, reformed, or repudiated. Still, the fallout from the emir’s action has deeply affected the rhythm of Kuwaiti politics (and silenced some of the loudest public discussions) without determining the country’s fundamental direction. The path of full autocracy remains open, and the promise of a committee to reform the constitution and pave the way for parliamentary restoration has been ignored to date. But this inaction does not necessarily imply an intention to permanently abolish parliament; rather, it may suggest that reform or restoration is more likely. Regardless, there are currently no clear indications of what changes might be made. So, while the potential for dramatic change exists, Kuwait’s leaders may have simply bought themselves a respite rather than a resolution. Important Kuwaiti political actors seem to be working out their strategies very slowly, meaning that questions will be answered over years, not weeks or months. But in the meantime, the flavor of Kuwaiti politics is shifting in ways that are often unannounced but very consequential for a society accustomed to a feisty and active political life.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Kuwait and Gulf Nations

13. European Democracy Support Annual Review 2024

Author:
Richard Youngs, Kinga Brudzinska, Zselyke Csaky, Ricardo Farinha, and Ken Godfrey
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In 2024, a series of elections reinforced EU concerns about the fragility of European democracies. This, coupled with intensifying conflict dynamics and authoritarian trends worldwide, led the EU to focus on protecting democracy at home at the expense of supporting it globally.
Topic:
Civil Society, Authoritarianism, Reform, European Union, Democracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Europe

14. Can Democracy Stop Extractivism and Authoritarianism?

Author:
Paula Sevilla Núñez
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Ecuador’s electorate will go to a runoff vote in April in a highly polarized climate. At stake is a broader political struggle between authoritarianism and democracy.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Extractivism
Political Geography:
Central America and Ecuador

15. Is Israel a Liberal Democracy?

Author:
Raphael Cohen-Almagor
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Israel’s democratic principles are under threat both internally and externally. Its long-term survival is to integrate fully into the Middle East, and the key to that integration is to peacefully resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Topic:
Democracy, Rule of Law, Liberalism, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

16. Why democracies stick together: The theory and empirics behind alliance formation

Author:
Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Domestic regime type affects both inter-state conflict and alliance formation. Democratic peace theory posits that democracies do not go to war with one another, while democratic alliance theory suggests that they rarely, if ever, join nondemocratic alliances (or alliances led by nondemocratic powers). Empirical evidence strongly supports both theories. The Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Indexes further reinforces the hypothesis that economically prosperous democracies tend to align with one another, whereas authoritarian states gravitate toward similarly nondemocratic and less prosperous partners. If these theories hold, they carry significant implications for Western and especially US foreign policy. First, global democratization would reduce the number of potential conflicts, at least among an increasing number of democracies. Second, it would expand the pool of democratic alliance partners, while at the same limiting the alliance options available to nondemocratic powers. This strategic logic underscores the importance of upholding democratic norms abroad and promoting democratization in nondemocratic states. However, advocating for democratization of nondemocratic great powers will be perceived as both a geopolitical and domestic political challenge aimed at weakening their international position and threatening their governments’ domestic grip on power. Efforts to democratize nondemocratic great-power like Russia and China therefore provoke intense countermeasures. If such a strategy is deemed to be too high risk or too difficult to pursue successfully, a less provocative, “peripheral” strategy may focus on fostering democracy and economic development in authoritarian regimes’ weaker, less prosperous partners, thereby depriving them of potential allies.
Topic:
NATO, Diplomacy, Politics, Democracy, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Asia

17. From Belgrade to Tbilisi: How the EU Views Civil Protests

Author:
Ljiljana Kolarski
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
From Belgrade to Tbilisi: How the EU Views Civil Protests The European Union (EU) has long positioned itself as a promoter of democratic values, human rights, and media freedom. However, its stance on opposition protests in different countries is often influenced by a complex interplay of geopolitical considerations and pragmatic interests. This paper examines the EU’s contrasting reactions to anti-government protests in Serbia and Georgia in 2024, emphasizing how these responses are shaped by the political alignments of the respective governments. On the one hand, the EU has brought a strong support to opposition in Georgia, whose government maintains close ties with its northern neighbor, Russia. On the other hand, Brussels has failed to actively support opposition groups in Serbia, which has visibly distanced itself from Moscow since the war began without moving towards greater democratization.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Protests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, and Georgia

18. The Consolidation of Liberal Democracy in Brazil: Encountering Global, Regional, and Local Representations

Author:
Daniela Vieria Secches
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The globally expanded international society established a standard of statehood as central criteria for its membership. The end of the Cold War witnessed an ascendant, albeit contested, liberal democracy as a preferred regime in global imaginaries. Within this context, the re-democratization processes experienced in Latin America amid profound international systemic reorientations implied the renegotiation of regional and local social imaginaries, as, for example, in the Brazilian case. In this article, we seek to discuss Brazil’s selective and creative adaptation in the space of overlaps between global, regional, and local social imaginaries about the government regime since the 1990s. Through a theoretical-empirical approach based on the discussion about the construction of shared understandings between international and domestic social spaces, we opted for a pragmatic theoretical foundation with the support of the English School of International Relations, critical philosophy, and the sociology of Bourdieu to study the Brazilian case. By focusing on the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government, it is proposed to qualitatively analyse documents from the period that problematize the country’s external insertion based on the interaction with the global and the regional social imaginaries about liberal democracy, with the support of a bibliographical review grounded on specialized secondary sources
Topic:
Democracy, Social Imaginary, Domestic Politics, and International Society
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and South America

19. A Turning Point, or Not? Principles for a New European Order

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Despite repeated declarations of historic turning points, deep structural reforms to the European project remain elusive. While defense spending rises are welcome, EU governments must also pursue systemic changes to Europe’s political and security architecture.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Politics, Reform, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

20. 10 Years of Observing US-Russia Relations (09/18/2025)

Author:
Timothy Frye, Samuel Greene, Nina Khrushcheva, Maria Snegovaya, Joshua Tucker, and Alexander Cooley
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
Please join the New York University Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia and Harriman Institute at Columbia University for the concluding event in the New York-Russia Public Policy series, held in person at NYU. This panel of four distinguished researchers and commentators on Russia will reflect on a decade of observing U.S.-Russia relations, how the two countries represent their relations and understand their interests, and the challenges inherent in communicating the many nuances of these relationships. Our panelists will also speculate on what we are likely to see in the next decade to come.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

21. Final Report: 2023 National Elections in Liberia

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
General elections were held in 2023 in Liberia to elect the president, the House of Representatives, and half the Senate. President George Weah was running for a second term. No candidate won a majority in the first round of voting on Oct. 10, which led to a Nov. 14 runoff between Weah and his closest challenger, Joseph Boakai. Boakai defeated Weah by just over one percentage point, and Weah conceded peacefully. In May of 2023, Liberia’s National Elections Commission (NEC) issued an invitation to The Carter Center to observe the election. Funding constraints prevented the Center from deploying a full observation mission. However, to demonstrate international support for democracy in Liberia and to share recommendations for strengthening the electoral process, The Carter Center deployed an international election expert mission led by Ray Kennedy, who also served as electoral analyst. Nicholas Jahr served as deputy team leader and political analyst, and Mariam Tabatadze was the legal analyst. The team was in Liberia from Sept. 25, two weeks prior to the first round of voting, to the end of November, two weeks after the runoff. Given the mission’s size and limited scope, it did not conduct a full observation of voting or make a comprehensive assessment of the election. Rather, the trio of experts focused on the counting and tabulation process and NEC preparations for both rounds of voting. They observed polling stations in Montserrado County—Monrovia, as well as Upper and Lower Montserrado magisterial areas—during both rounds. Liberia’s NEC successfully administered the 2023 elections, including a presidential runoff, despite a tense political climate and severe resource constraints. The 2023 Revised Farmington River Declaration in which 27 of 31 political parties pledged their commitments to peaceful elections served as a useful tool in maintaining a relatively calm atmosphere during the campaign period.2 The NEC maintained its credibility through a closely contested first round that saw the difference in votes between the first-place and second-place candidates come down to less than half a percentage point, with nearly 80% of the registered electorate going to the polls, followed by a second round in which the difference was less than 2%, with 66% of the electorate casting ballots. The NEC’s strong performance is notable in the current regional and subregional context and positions Liberia to serve as a model for promoting political stability through professionally administered elections if there is the political will to continue to do so. Nonetheless, political will has been a recurring problem in Liberia in relation to elections: For example, despite repeated calls for action, elected leaders over the past 20 years have failed to effectively address the issue of including female candidates on party lists. Likewise, leaders have failed to ensure that electoral districts comply with constitutional requirements to provide equal representation, with many electoral districts dating from 2005 and reflecting enormous disproportionality. Given its record of successfully administering elections in 2005, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2020, as well as various by-elections, despite declining levels of international support, expectations for the NEC have risen. Still, financial constraints and other limits on its independence have hindered the NEC’s ability to make further progress in professionalizing the institution and consolidating its reputation.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

22. Voices Beyond the Battlefield: Sudanese Civic Actors in Wartime and Diaspora

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Since April 15, 2023, Sudan has experienced a catastrophic collapse following the outbreak of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. Over 14.5 million people have been displaced, famine is deepening, and war crimes — including mass killings, sexual violence, and forced displacement — continue with impunity. The collapse of the state has left a vacuum in governance, services, and protection. Sudan now faces what the International Rescue Committee has called “the largest humanitarian crisis ever recorded.” With the collapse of state structures and infrastructure, Sudanese civic actors, both within the country and across the diaspora, have become frontline responders, organizing aid delivery, evacuating civilians, supporting survivors, documenting violations, and sustaining local networks. They operate without protection, pay, or recognition, often under direct threat from armed actors who view civic activity with suspicion or hostility. In the diaspora, Sudanese organizations struggle with legal ambiguity, lack of registration options, and diminished access to funding, yet remain determined to support their communities and return when conditions permit. The international response remains severely underfunded and politically disengaged. The United States had been the largest donor to Sudan, providing over US$1.4 billion in assistance since 2022. The U.S. government’s recent cuts to foreign aid, including to Sudan, have further deepened the gap and marginalized long-term development and peacebuilding efforts there. The international community’s lack of sustained engagement risks normalizing the war and further entrenching those who profit from instability. This report is based on nearly 70 interviews and group discussions conducted in April 2025 with civic actors in Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Chad. It provides firsthand insight into the conditions these actors face, the strategies they use to adapt and survive, and the support they urgently need.
Topic:
Civil War, Diaspora, Democracy, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

23. Voices Beyond the Battlefield: Future Civic Space and Recovery Prospects

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
This second installment of the Carter Center’s report series on the affects of the Sudan civil war on civil actors takes a forward-looking view, highlighting how Sudanese civic actors are beginning to reorganize, engage with emerging local governance structures, and prepare for potential transitions. The Carter Center has monitored the conflict in Sudan since its outbreak in April 2023. In 2024, the Democracy Program launched a remote observation mission based in Nairobi, Kenya, to examine how civic actors are navigating the war, adapting their roles, and envisioning the country’s future. Through one-on-one interviews and group discussions with civic leaders in regional diaspora hubs, the Sudan Observation Mission produced four reports.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Democracy, Peace, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

24. Guyana General Election Preliminary Statement

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Carter Center election observation mission has been in Guyana since late June following an invitation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. The mission is led by Jason Carter, chairperson of The Carter Center Board of Trustees and grandson of the late U.S. President Jimmy Carter. On election day, 47 observers from 21 countries visited 234 polling stations across Guyana’s 10 regions to observe voting and counting. Carter Center observers continue to assess the conclusion of counting and vote tabulation and will remain in Guyana to observe the postelection environment. All assessments are made in accordance with international standards for elections, and the observation mission was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Guyana

25. Projections for geopolitical competition to EU Democracy Promotion

Author:
Isabelle Ioannides
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy brief is authored by Dr. Isabelle Ioannides (Senior Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme – ELIAMEP) and published in the context of the project EMBRACing changE – Overcoming Obstacles and Advancing Democracy in the European Neighbourhood (EMBRACE). EMBRACE is a multi-country research initiative (2022–2025) that seeks to strengthen the capacity of EU policymakers and pro-democracy actors to develop effective strategies for democracy promotion across five regions: the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa. It combines comparative analysis, stakeholder engagement, and new data collection to identify the obstacles and enablers of democratisation and to design practical policy tools for European democracy promotion. Focusing on Work Package 7 – The Geopolitics of EUDP, this policy brief addresses the turbulent geopolitical landscape in which EU democracy promotion must operate. Russia’s and China’s assertive roles, including disinformation campaigns, combine with heightened regional instability, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the spread of polarisation and populism within and beyond Europe. These developments create a volatile environment that constrains democratic progress in the EU’s neighbourhood and, in some cases, drives democratic backsliding. The brief stresses that the EU’s democracy promotion cannot be viewed in isolation from these broader geopolitical dynamics. Against this backdrop, the EMBRACE project organised scenario-building workshops in North Macedonia, Serbia, Ukraine, and Georgia, and conducted stakeholder interviews in Algeria. These consultations had a twofold aim: to assess the democratic trajectories and risks facing each country by 2030, and to evaluate how the EU can mitigate challenges while reinforcing democratic enablers. The locally led approach ensured that country-specific insights and informal power dynamics were captured, helping to refine projections for how external and internal pressures may shape democracy in the coming years. The brief concludes by offering recommendations for the EU to recalibrate its democracy promotion strategies under conditions of geopolitical competition and uncertainty. It underlines that effectiveness depends on tailoring approaches to local realities, anticipating risks through foresight and scenario planning, and reinforcing the EU’s credibility as a consistent and strategic actor. By integrating evidence-based insights and locally grounded perspectives, the policy brief contributes to EMBRACE’s broader mission of equipping the EU with more adaptive and resilient tools for advancing democracy in its neighbourhood.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe

26. The EU’s Democracy Promotion and Geopolitical Competition

Author:
Ioannis Armakolas, Dimitar Bechev, and Ana Krstinovska
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper is authored by Ioannis Armakolas, Head & Senior Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, Dimitar Bechev, Senior Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, and Ana Krstinovska, Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP is published in the context of the of the project EMBRACing changE – Overcoming Blockages and Advancing Democracy in the European Neighbourhood. EMBRACE is a multi-country research initiative that aims to enhance democracy promotion efforts in the EU’s neighbourhood by identifying key obstacles to democratisation and formulating evidence-based strategies to overcome them. The project draws on locally led research and stakeholder engagement across twelve case studies in five regions: the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa. Focusing on Work Package 7 of the project, the report “The EU’s Democracy Promotion and Geopolitical Competition” examines how the European Union’s democracy promotion efforts are shaped and challenged by both external authoritarian actors, primarily Russia and China, and internal political dynamics within partner countries. The report offers an in-depth comparative analysis of five case study countries: Algeria, Georgia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine. The authors analyse how authoritarian rivals deploy various forms of coercion, subversion, and co-optation, often exploiting internal political vulnerabilities. They also highlight how domestic elites navigate this external competition, at times instrumentalising their ties with Russia and China to entrench their power and limit EU influence. In this geopolitical context, the paper finds that EU democracy promotion tools are most impactful when tied to credible enlargement prospects and implemented with consistency and strategic sensitivity to local conditions. The paper concludes that democracy promotion is no longer merely a matter of institutional design or normative appeal, it has become a geopolitical contest where foreign influence and domestic agency intersect. As such, future EU strategies must account for this complexity and tailor instruments to local realities while remaining steadfast in their democratic commitments. The report closes with concrete policy recommendations aimed at refining the EU’s approach, particularly in geopolitically contested environments.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

27. Military Humanitarianism: A case of India´s Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations

Author:
Aashriti Gautam
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The current global scenario, wherein states are increasingly inclined to deploy military force to defend their national interests at the cost of human lives, often overlooks the military's constructive role in safeguarding and reinstating fundamental democratic values, such as respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, through its Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief operations (HADR). Within this contextual framework, the article adds an important dimension to the existing scholarship on the relationship between democratic values and the military, examined through the lens of military humanitarianism. To further substantiate this assertion, the author posits that the global humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations undertaken by the Indian Armed Forces serve as a compelling case study. The analytical findings reveal that India’s HADR efforts reflect its commitment to democratic values, emphasizing transparency, inclusivity, and equitable aid distribution, while strengthening governance, resilience, and strategic influence in global crisis management.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Armed Forces, Democracy, Military, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

28. From Provider to Precarious: How young men’s economic decline fuels the anti-feminist backlash

Author:
Javier Carbonell
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
A new political divide is emerging in Europe: a growing gender gap among young voters, with young women trending progressive and young men increasingly turning to the far right. This paper argues that the rise of anti-feminist backlash among young men is not merely a cultural reaction to feminism but also the result of deepening economic precarity—particularly for working-class men without university degrees. Over the past two decades, young men have seen declining wealth, stagnating wages, lower employment rates, and worse mental health outcomes. In some EU countries, young women now earn more than men their age. This economic decline is not caused by women’s advancement but rather by structural economic changes, such as the rise in inequality and automation, which disproportionately affect men who occupy more manual jobs. As traditional pathways to masculine status—such as stable employment, homeownership, and provider roles—erode, far-right actors have capitalised on this dislocation by offering a regressive but emotionally resonant vision of masculinity. This gender divide threatens not only gender equality but also the foundations of democratic support itself, as radicalised young men often express weaker commitment to democratic norms. To reverse this trend, democratic forces must pursue a two-pronged approach: Address the material roots of frustration through ambitious economic policy: investing in housing, education, vocational training, employment security, and wealth redistribution for youth—particularly men without degrees. Redefine masculinity by promoting positive, inclusive male role models and creating new cultural narratives that empower young men without reinforcing patriarchal norms. Progressive visions of manhood must offer not only critique, but aspiration.
Topic:
Economics, Democracy, Feminism, Men, and Precarity
Political Geography:
Europe

29. The Spitzenkandidat: Time to rethink a failing democratic experiment

Author:
Eric Maurice
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Hailed as a breakthrough for EU democracy when it was first introduced in 2014, the Spitzenkandidat system has since failed to fulfil the promises made to European citizens. The system, based on an interpretation of Article 17.7 of the treaty on the European Union that stipulates how the Commission president is (s)elected, dictates that the lead candidate of the European party which obtains the most votes in the European elections should become European Commission president and was used in the election of Commission presidents Jean-Claude Junker and Ursula von der Leyen. This paper argues that the Spitzenkandidat system has not contributed to deepening the pan-European political debate, reinforcing the political legitimacy of EU institutions, or increasing the accountability of the European Commission to the European Parliament. On the contrary, the way that European political parties and members of the European Parliament have implemented the system has led to a more powerful and partisan Commission, as well as a weaker Parliament with less oversight powers. And while the European Parliament—engaged in an institutional competition with the European Council—has used the lead candidate experiment to establish a parliamentary government at EU level, this has created ambiguities over the form of government the EU should have and where legitimacy should derive from. On 18 July 2024, a majority in the European Parliament re-elected Ursula von der Leyen, the lead candidate of the European People’s Party, as Commission president. A year later, the Commission’s agenda does not reflect the political balance of the so-called ‘Von der Leyen coalition’ that backed her election, which proves that the Commission is not politically accountable to the Parliament. The first anniversary of her re-election is an opportunity to draw lessons from the Spitzenkandidat experiment and start rethinking how it can deliver on its democratic promises.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Citizenship, Participation, European Parliament, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

30. Resilience to Online Disinformation: The Role of Civil Society Organizations

Author:
Agnieszka Bejma and Yun-Ju Kao
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The proliferation of online disinformation poses a serious threat to democratic societies, undermining electoral integrity, fueling polarization, and eroding public trust in institutions. Addressing this complex and evolving challenge cannot be the responsibility of governments or civil society actors alone. This article argues that civil society organizations (CSOs), when engaged as co-creators in democratic governance, play a vital role in fostering information resilience in the digital age. Drawing on comparative case studies from Taiwan and Poland: two democracies that have been frequent targets of foreign disinformation campaigns, we examine how CSOs respond to these threats through fact-checking, media monitoring, digital literacy education, and public awareness campaigns. Our findings show that CSOs not only expose misleading content but also empower citizens to critically engage with information ecosystems. The study contributes to the emerging literature on co-governance by demonstrating that effective responses to disinformation require multiactor collaboration, with CSOs serving as institutional partners in safeguarding democratic resilience.
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, Democracy, Resilience, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

31. Digital Technologies in the Election Cycle – The Case of Albanian Parliamentary Elections 2025

Author:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
As digital platforms and AI reshape societies worldwide, their impact on elections is increasingly profound. This brief explores how digital tools were used in Albania’s 2025 Parliamentary Elections, examining the roles of the Central Election Committee, political parties, candidates, and civil society. While technology offers opportunities for voter education, transparency, and participation, it also brings risks such as misinformation, unethical campaigning, and gaps in legal oversight. Drawing on international examples and Albania’s own experience, the brief highlights the need for robust safeguards, legislative alignment with EU standards, and strengthened public awareness to ensure digital means strengthen rather than undermines democratic processes.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, Parliament, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Albania

32. Next-Generation Perspectives on Taiwan

Author:
Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
In an increasingly fractured world where authoritarianism is gaining ground, Taiwan stands as one of the strongest and most resilient democracies. Taiwan placed first in Asia and 12th globally in the 2025 democracy index compiled by the London-based Economic Intelligence Unit. This year, Freedom House ranked Taiwan as the sixth-freest country in the world with a score of 94 out of 100. These are remarkable achievements for a relatively young democracy that experienced decades of authoritarian rule, lifted martial law in 1987, and conducted its first direct presidential election in 1996. Taiwan is also an economic powerhouse. With just 23.5 million people, Taiwan has a GDP of nearly $760 billion, which puts it close to the top 20 economies of the world. Its crucial role in global technology supply chains is unquestionable, especially in semiconductor manufacturing, where Taiwanese companies produce close to 70% of the world’s chips and over 90% of the most advanced ones. Taiwan is also driving innovation and delivering state-of-the-art solutions in artificial intelligence, information technology, and renewable energy. Taiwan is a global leader in public health, including medical technology, public hygiene, and transplants. It has one of the best national health care systems in the world and among the most competitive biomedical industries. Taiwan is also among the world’s leading nations in scientific research to improve prevention and detection of diseases. Another area where Taiwan excels is in the provision of disaster preparedness and relief, both domestically and internationally. Taiwan’s government and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) frequently provide aid to countries affected by disasters, donating supplies, offering financial assistance, and dispatching search and rescue teams. After Japan’s massive Tohoku earthquake in 2011, Taiwan donated over $250 million in combined aid. Following the 2023 earthquake in Türkiye, Taiwan provided financial aid along with a search-and-rescue team. Taiwan’s importance to the international community is undeniable. As a full member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, Taiwan has demonstrated that it is a valuable and reliable partner. Yet Taiwan is largely excluded from participating in the United Nations System, including the World Health Organization, the International Civil Aviation Organization, and the Kimberley Process aimed at ensuring that diamonds are not used to fund violent conflicts or undermine legitimate governments. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) actively thwarts Taiwan’s participation in international organizations by exerting pressure within those organizations and on individual member countries. The Taiwan-US-Europe Policy Program (TUPP) encourages young professionals from the United States and Europe to include Taiwan in their research and activities and help Taiwan to expand its global networks. Established in 2017, annual TUPP delegations were originally composed only of Americans, but expanded to include Europeans in 2022 in support of GMF’s mission of promoting transatlantic cooperation. TUPP enables future leaders to acquire a deeper understanding of Taiwan and its relations with the world. Delegation members are selected through a rigorous application process. The annual program begins in Washington, DC, where the cohort (5 Americans and 5 Europeans) meets with officials and experts, and continues with a week-long visit to Taiwan to gain firsthand exposure to Taiwan’s politics, culture, and history. Through their participation in TUPP and especially their experience in Taiwan, participants are instilled with an appreciation for Taiwan’s history, its commitment to the principles of democracy and human rights that undergird the existing international order, and its potential to contribute more actively to international organizations. They also gain a deeper understanding of the importance of strengthening international support for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Over time, TUPP aims to create a body of global experts with firsthand knowledge of Taiwan who support sustaining and expanding its international ties. It is my earnest hope that all the TUPP participants will be inspired to work both on and with Taiwan. I am grateful to the Henry Luce Foundation, the Global Taiwan Institute, and the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy for their support of these goals. The contributions here, written by the members of the 2025 TUPP cohort, underscore the importance of deeper study and understanding of Taiwan. I sincerely hope that they stimulate greater transatlantic and global attention to Taiwan and its future.
Topic:
Democracy, Geopolitics, Economy, Trade, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

33. How to Help Ukraine Strengthen Democratic Resilience During and After the War

Author:
Yana Brovdiy
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion since 2022 has transformed Ukraine’s domestic landscape, forcing the state to balance wartime governance with the pursuit of long-term transformative reforms. Despite the centralization of power under martial law, the government has continued efforts toward EU integration and institutional strengthening. Political competition has narrowed but not disappeared: while opposition parties challenge aspects of governance, they support the war effort and reform trajectory. Civil society and volunteer groups have assumed unprecedented roles in oversight, service delivery, and sustaining national morale, compensating for state limitations. Independent media, though operating under pressure, remain critical in keeping the government accountable and countering disinformation. The public’s confidence increasingly rests with the country’s wartime leaders, reflecting a shift in political legitimacy. Even under severe economic and humanitarian strain, the population’s commitment to democratic values and a European future endures. Ukraine’s integration into Western political, economic, and security structures deepened after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and accelerated following the full-scale invasion. International assistance remains vital for sustaining its defense, economy, and reform agenda. The EU’s €50 billion Ukraine Facility and progress in accession talks highlight its continued commitment, yet divisions among member states, notably Hungary’s veto threats and differing priorities, slow collective action. Meanwhile, US policy toward Ukraine under President Donald Trump has become more transactional and unpredictable, creating uncertainty over long-term military support. NATO members and partners have stepped up coordination through mechanisms such as the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, but the lack of unified Western leadership complicates strategic planning. This brief outlines for the medium term three scenarios for Ukraine’s democratic resilience, depending on how the war, diplomatic efforts, and domestic political dynamics evolve. The most likely one is the war continuing without a ceasefire, and ongoing martial law, societal fatigue, and political uncertainty eventually create the conditions for a government of national unity. The second-most likely scenario is a ceasefire providing temporary relief and space for governance, and opening the way for increased pressure for elections, even with the war unresolved and the country exposed to Russian interference. A peace agreement followed by elections is the least likely scenario at the time of writing, which, without complete domestic acceptance and strong international security guarantees, could destabilize Ukraine politically. To help Ukraine sustain its sovereignty, democratic governance, and European integration, its international partners should provide continuous, reliable military support and concrete security guarantees. They should reinforce independent institutions, including anti-corruption bodies and the judiciary, while backing civil society and independent media to maintain accountability. Supporting the development of new political actors and harnessing the growing influence of veterans can also strengthen democratic norms and political pluralism. Assistance should also promote cohesion across government and society to prevent and to reduce polarization and external Russian interference, ensuring Ukraine’s resilience during the war and in the ongoing and postwar reconstruction.
Topic:
Sovereignty, European Union, Democracy, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

34. How To Help Moldova Secure Its Fragile Democracy

Author:
Laurențiu Pleșca
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
As it approaches its parliamentary elections, Moldova is in a turbulent situation, with ongoing economic and social challenges, society polarized, and the political landscape marked by a split among pro-EU forces while pro-Russia ones appear increasingly united. Moldova is no longer a captured state, but oligarchic networks are still influential. The elections will be decisive for its geopolitical trajectory. Pro-EU actors faces the challenge of overcoming their divisions and forming a credible governing coalition, while pro-Russia and populist forces aim to exploit societal grievances, economic vulnerability, and external disinformation to erode trust in democratic institutions. Vote-buying, illegal campaign financing, and disinformation, particularly via digital platforms beyond the state’s regulatory reach, remain potent tools for those seeking to manipulate the elections’ outcome. At the same time, an active civil society and independent media keep a close watch on democratic backsliding and political shifts. They play an indispensable role in strengthening the country’s resilience, but resource limitations and the termination of US assistance threaten their effectiveness. Moldova’s international environment further complicates its trajectory. The war in Ukraine, the presence of Russian forces in Transnistria, and the frozen negotiation format for solving the situation there heighten security concerns. Russia continues to undermine its EU integration through political pressure, energy leverage, and hybrid influence campaigns. Simultaneously, Moldova has deepened its ties with the EU, the United States, and regional partners such as Romania and Ukraine, receiving substantial financial, technical, and security support. It benefits from the EU’s Black Sea Security Strategy, the European Peace Facility, and a three-year €1.9 billion EU Economic Growth Plan, alongside EU and US military and development assistance. The pro-EU parties are fragmenting and ostracizing each other, while the left-wing and pro-Russia parties are coalescing to be as effective as possible. It will be difficult for a single party or bloc to win an absolute majority. Moldova thus faces three near-term scenarios around the elections, reflecting the political polarization and, in two cases, highlighting the likely fragility of a resulting governing coalition. The most probable outcomes are continuity in government and in EU integration under the PAS or a fragile pro-EU coalition government. The less likely outcome is an unstable broad pro-Russia coalition government that would be destructive for Moldova’s EU path. For the EU, its member states, and other Western actors, supporting Moldova is a matter of reinforcing its democratic resilience. They need to help its institutions withstand pressures in the short term, and to strengthen the political, civic, and security foundations that can anchor the country in Europe in the long run. This requires a wide range of financial, technical, and political measures to give Moldova the tools to resist foreign interference and the confidence to pursue reforms. They include supporting the consolidation of democratic institutions, enhancing electoral integrity, reinforcing civil society, and maintaining a credible path toward EU accession.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Black Sea

35. Improving Civic Education in the Western Balkans: The Experience of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia

Author:
Ema Džejna Smolo Zukan
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Civic education is critical in building democratic resilience. Yet, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia, it remains an underdeveloped, inconsistently implemented, and politically marginalized part of the education system. Civic education is included in the school curriculum in the three countries, but its delivery often misses the mark, due to weak institutional frameworks, lack of teacher motivation and support, and limited political will for reforms. As taught now, instead of fostering informed, critical, and engaged citizenship, the subject leaves young people unprepared to participate actively and vulnerable to disinformation In Bosnia and Herzegovina, civic education has been a mandatory school subject since 2001, but fragmentation across 13 education ministries produces significant disparities in content and quality. In Montenegro, it was downgraded to an elective subject in 2017, effectively eroding its presence in schools. In Serbia, it is elective and competes with religious education, reinforcing the notion that the two are mutually exclusive. Across the region, the subject suffers from insufficient resources, low institutional priority, and low student engagement. The gap between subject design and implementation persists. Although civic education is a well-designed part of the education system on paper, in practice, it is often peripheral, theory-heavy, and disconnected from everyday life. Students are expected to memorize rather than to engage and to debate. There is inconsistency in schools as it largely depends on the motivation of a few teachers. For teachers, selection criteria are loose and professional development is rare or dependent on external support, and there is little career incentive to teach the subject. Civil society organizations play a vital compensatory role by developing materials, organizing extracurricular activities, and training teachers, yet these efforts remain donor-dependent and unsustainable without state support. Reforming civic education requires bridging the gap between civic knowledge and civic action. This entails a shift to experiential learning that develops critical thinking, media literacy, and democratic participation. There is a need for improving teacher training and certification, embedding civic education as a standalone and visible subject, and fostering cooperation between ministries, educators, and civil society. Greater parental awareness and public advocacy are essential to raise the status of the subject and build societal support for reform. Ultimately, strengthening civic education is a strategic investment in democratic culture and social cohesion. By institutionalizing inclusive, participatory, and practical civic learning, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia can empower young people as informed, responsible citizens and improve the quality of democracy. Effective civic education is not only an educational priority but also a democratic imperative for the region’s future stability.
Topic:
Civil Society, Education, Democracy, Diversity, Equity, and and Inclusion (DEI)
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Western Balkans

36. Strengthening Cameroon’s Electoral Ecosystem: Lessonslearned from the 2025 presidential election

Author:
Antem Anthony
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Weeks after Cameroon’s 2025 presidential election, the dust is yet to settle on an election described by 9 members of the US Congress as a “serious erosion of democratic norms”.Between numerous killings, arbitrary arrests of peaceful protesters and opposition figures,kidnappings, looting and destruction of property, the post electoral scenario in Cameroon did notfall short of expectation as early indicators highlighted the risk of a polycrisis in Cameroon. Awayfrom the violent scenarios recorded, it would be of benefit to the enlarged public and policymakers to take note of some positive scenarios which were equally observed throughout thiselection and how multisectoral actions can shape positive outcomes for the community. In view ofinforming best practices locally and internationally, this article therefore highlights some keylessons from Cameroon’s just ended elections
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

37. The Lawful Losers? Why Democracies Struggle to Deter Cyber Aggression

Author:
Paul A. Eisenmann
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
Democratic states are increasingly vulnerable in cyberspace due to inherent ethical constraints, transparency requirements, and legal oversight, significantly hindering their ability to effectively deter cyber aggression. This article critically assesses the strategic disadvantages democracies face using the examples of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, including attribution challenges, threshold ambiguities, and the problematic diffusion of cyber capabilities among state and nonstate actors. It evaluates how strict adherence to international humanitarian law (IHL) further constrains democratic responses, contrasting sharply with the operational flexibility enjoyed by authoritarian adversaries. The article advocates strengthening cyber resilience, promoting global norm-building initiatives, and crucially retaining credible traditional military retaliation options. This integrated strategy enables democracies to uphold their values, effectively counter cyber threats, and actively shape global cyber norms, thereby ensuring strategic stability and digital security.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Democracy, Deterrence, Norms, Resilience, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and Constraints
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

38. Informe sobre la democracia en España 2024

Author:
Lluís Orriols, Oriol Bartomeus, Sandra León, Miguel Artola Blanco, and Antonio M. Jaime-Castillo
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La democracia española en 2024 se situó en una posición paradójica entre la fragmentación y el equilibrio. Por un lado, los principales indicadores internacionales de calidad democrática la incluyen entre las democracias plenas y consolidadas del mundo; sin embargo, esa fortaleza contrasta con un cierto descontento interno más difuso, donde la desconfianza ciudadana hacia algunas instituciones, así como el avance de los discursos populistas y polarizadores dominaron la esfera pública. España refleja así una tensión común a muchas democracias contemporáneas, y es la distancia entre los indicadores formales y la percepción subjetiva de los ciudadanos, o los expertos consultados. En 2024 algunos contextos amplificaron dicha distancia, entre ellos el procés en Cataluña y la ley de amnistía, pero también hubo una búsqueda de cierto equilibrio. De hecho, ha sido necesaria una negociación constante para llegar a acuerdos de gobierno que permitieran la gobernabilidad. La cuestión central es si este equilibrio puede sostenerse en el tiempo o si, por el contrario, la acumulación de tensiones erosionará la confianza en el sistema. En este informe, los autores señalan algunas alternativas para ayudar a mantener o incrementar el equilibro, alejándolo de la fragmentación. Las prioridades identificadas pasan por cambios en el poder judicial, reformas en política de vivienda o anticiparse a posibles efectos de las reformas de los modelos de financiación autonómica.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Violent Extremism, European Union, Democracy, Inequality, Economy, Populism, Political Science, Industry, Polarization, and Fragmentation
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

39. The dangerous watchdog: How corruption shapes support for media scrutiny in Africa

Author:
Nnaemeka Ohamadike
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
“Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants,” U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis famously said, referring to the belief that vigorous reporting on corruption helps citizens hold their leaders accountable and punish wrongdoers. Yet the politics of exposure is rarely so simple, especially where corruption is entrenched, and rulers have incentives and/or power to manage what the public sees. South Africa offers a textbook example supporting the view that the press should act as a watchdog: Years of media investigations and independent ombud reporting helped publicise state-capture abuses and contributed to President Jacob Zuma’s eventual resignation in 2018 (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, n.d.). However, when sunlight burns, exposure can feel perilous rather than purifying. Across the continent, many citizens view the negative reporting of government wrongdoing as harmful rather than beneficial to their country. One possible explanation for this is that when corruption is high, governments may take more stringent measures to suppress reporting that might be embarrassing to them, such as framing critical journalism as divisive, unpatriotic, and a threat to the public good (Teplyashina & Golubev, 2019). Citizens may internalise these cues, expressing concern about the harm of reporting on corruption or political failure. This possibility motivates this paper’s central hypothesis that where corruption is high, citizens are more likely to view reporting on government mistakes and corruption as harmful to the country. Put differently, corruption may shape not only the supply of news (through censorship or self-censorship) but also the demand for scrutiny – public support for watchdog journalism itself. Accordingly, the paper addresses two core questions: (1) What do Africans think about media involvement in investigating and reporting government wrongdoing? (2) How is corruption related to citizens’ views on media reporting of government wrongdoing? I test the hypothesis and address the questions by conducting a multilevel logistic regression analysis based on Afrobarometer Round 9 (2021/2023) data from 39 African countries. The aim is to bring citizens’ attitudes into a discussion that often focuses on institutions, newsroom practices, and content framing (Stapenhurst, 2000; Solis & Antenangeli, 2017; Fadairo, Fadairo, & Aminu, 2014; Quayle & West, 2025). The results show that most Africans want the press to investigate and report on government mistakes and corruption. However, the relationship between corruption and support for media scrutiny is nuanced. At the country level, citizens in countries with weaker corruption control are more likely to say that reporting on government wrongdoing harms the country. If corruption can erode support for investigative reporting, it weakens an important accountability mechanism precisely where it is most needed. However, a very different outcome emerges when we examine perceptions of corruption at the individual level: Those who perceive corruption as widespread are more likely to support media reporting on the issue, indicating that they are less likely to share concerns about potential detrimental effects of media exposure of corruption on the country’s image.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Democracy, and Media
Political Geography:
Africa

40. Insecurity and institutional trust in the context of a coup d’état

Author:
Mamadou Alpha Diallo
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Despite growing concerns about political instability, research on insecurity and institutional trust has overwhelmingly focused on democracies, leaving authoritarian and conflict-affected countries largely unexplored. This study examines how insecurity influences institutional trust in Mali, a fragile and conflict-affected country. Using data from Afrobarometer rounds 8 and 9, combined with secondary data on conflict events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project, we construct indices of subjective and objective insecurity and estimate multiple linear models including quadratic terms to assess relationships before and after the coups of August 2020 and May 2021. Our results reveal power-contingent, non-linear dynamics. Under civilian rule, objective insecurity, seen as observed violence, traces a U-shaped curve. However, under the military regime, the curve turns bell-shaped. Conversely, subjective insecurity, mildly corrosive before the coups, instead becomes U-shaped afterward, meaning only extreme perceived danger activates the rally-around the-flag effect. While these patterns highlight potential differences between regime types, they are drawn from two time points in a single country and should be interpreted with caution.
Topic:
Democracy, Institutions, Coup, Trust, Military, and Insecurity
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

41. Accessing Foreign Policy Information in the Digital Age: Evidence from Greece

Author:
Péter Kacziba
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The digitalization of governance and media has increased the visibility and accessibility of foreign policy, reshaping how citizens engage with international affairs. However, limited research exists on how digital platforms influence the way foreign policy information is accessed and evaluated in specific national contexts. This study addresses this gap by examining the case of Greece. Drawing on a nationwide online survey conducted in February 2024 (N = 800), this analysis investigates citizens’ source preferences, perceptions of credibility, and engagement patterns across socio-demographic groups. The findings reveal that digital platforms have emerged as the dominant sources of foreign policy information. Nevertheless, traditional dynamics of political polarization, selective trust, and fragmented media consumption remain prevalent. These results underscore the constraints of digitalization in expanding democratic participation and highlight the need for foreign policy research and practice to pay greater attention to public opinion and societal dynamics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Democracy, Media, Polarization, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

42. Artificial Intelligence and Politics: Legal Dilemmas and Risks to Democracy

Author:
Daniele Battista and Gabriele Uva
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The rapid progress of AI has raised questions about its political, ethical, and legal impact, particularly regarding institutional transparency and citizens’ privacy. This study examined the implications of AI in European politics, evaluating whether it enhances democracy or fosters algorithmic manipulations that contravene ethical and legal norms. Adopting a deductive approach, it examined narratives, scenarios, and expectations regarding the use of AI in decision-making and governance mechanisms. The aim was to offer a critical perspective on the dynamics at play, highlighting the risks, opportunities, and legal protections available. The study contributed to the academic debate on the ethical and regulatory implications of AI in governance, providing insights for future regulation and public policy.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Democracy, Ethics, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, Data, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Europe

43. How Democracies Defend Themselves Against Authoritarianism

Author:
Robert Benson
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
Democracies facing authoritarian threats from within have found ways to push back by strengthening institutions, reinforcing democratic norms, and building popular resistance against encroaching autocracy. Understanding these strategies is vital to learning how to fight back.
Topic:
Human Rights, National Security, Authoritarianism, Reform, Elections, Democracy, Transparency, Voting Rights, Donald Trump, Domestic Policy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, India, Israel, North America, and United States of America

44. The EU in an age of empires: A liberal geopolitical force in the making?

Author:
Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, Harald Müller, Sanna Salo, and Saila Heinikoski
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
With the US under President Trump challenging the core principles of the rules-based international order, the EU finds itself in an age of empires. The rise of imperialist politics is forcing the EU to defend liberal democracy and economic stability, and to rely increasingly on likeminded partners in the absence of the US. Rising far-right populism, democratic backsliding, and institutional gridlock are weakening the EU. To maintain internal cohesion and external influence, the EU must reform its decision-making, strengthen democratic legitimacy, and accelerate enlargement through differentiated integration. The EU must redefine its relationships, particularly with the Global South. By stepping up as a development partner and demonstrating responsiveness and consistency rather than relying on purely transactional diplomacy, the EU can solidify its added value on the global stage. Facing economic rivalry with the US, the EU must enhance its competitiveness, deepen the single market, and strengthen the euro. Joint borrowing and fiscal integration could bolster the EU’s resilience and economic statecraft, ensuring that it can “stand up for itself”.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe

45. Four scenarios for the future of transatlantic relations: European autonomy and the American challenge

Author:
Ville Sinkkonen and Garret Martin
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
While concerns about the long-term durability of the US commitment to European security are not new, the unpredictable Trump administration stands out as a serious threat to the foundations of the transatlantic partnership. By analysing the US approach to Europe through the lens of two key variables – investment (whether the US prioritizes Europe) and control (whether the US seeks to dictate Europe’s policy choices) – the Briefing Paper maps out four scenarios for the transatlantic alliance over the next five to ten years. The four scenarios – neglect, partner, vassal, and bloc logic – each present specific challenges and trade-offs for Europe. However, the first two models, neglect and partner, are less thorny on paper because they would preserve European strategic autonomy. Vassal and bloc logic, by contrast, would likely present Europe with far more challenging dilemmas. American pressure to toe the line would compel Europe to choose between unpalatable options, such as surrender or resistance, while testing its ability to preserve autonomy.
Topic:
Power Politics, Governance, Democracy, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

46. Four lenses for observing the second Trump administration: Reflecting uncertainty

Author:
Charly Salonius-Pasternak and Ville Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The global security landscape has evolved in the four years since President Donald Trump’s first term. The new administration aims to usher in a “Golden Age of America”, with impacts on domestic politics and society, as well as foreign policy. Unlike in 2017, the incoming administration appears better prepared, with outlined plans and key appointments. However, chaotic decision-making processes and an emphasis on loyalty to Trump are likely to introduce unpredictability into governance and policymaking. The administration’s unified domestic and foreign policy strategy can be viewed through four lenses: national sovereignty, economic nationalism, devolution, and the unmooring of power. The Trump administration is likely to embrace disruption and chaos to achieve revolutionary rather than evolutionary change. This thinking draws on tech-inspired startup culture and generational-revolutionary philosophies, which perceive the US as being in a moment of crisis that will usher in a new historical epoch. Key uncertainties remain regarding the administration’s long-term effects on democracy, alliances, and great power competition, particularly concerning trade-security linkages and alliance relations with Europe and Asia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Donald Trump, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

47. Germany’s ‘perfect storm’: A structural crisis for the EU’s engine?

Author:
Marco Siddi, Tuomas Iso-Markku, Harald Müller, and Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Germany is facing significant challenges in its foreign and economic policies, most notably the loss of Russian energy supplies, managing the economic partnership with China amid growing geopolitical tensions and, more recently, the prospect of an unfriendly US administration under Donald Trump. Domestically, Berlin is grappling with the consequences of long-term underinvestment in public infrastructure, limited innovation capacity, and sluggish productivity growth. Anti-establishment parties, particularly the far right, have gained popularity, limiting options for coalition governments after the February 2025 election. At the EU level, Germany’s leadership and its partnership with France have suffered setbacks. At the same time, no credible alternatives have emerged that could potentially replace the leading role of the Franco-German tandem. The next German government will have to contend with a deteriorating economic situation, as well as the long-term foreign policy challenges faced by the outgoing government.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

48. Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Resonance of Ukraine’s Resistance

Author:
Ben Heap
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Ukraine’s messaging resonates because it reflects the audience’s values, beliefs, and historical experiences. Its power lies not only in President Zelenskyy’s skilled communication, social media savvy, and emotional appeals, but in the deeper principles it expresses—justice, sovereignty, and the rule of law. These liberal democratic values define what we are willing to defend.
Topic:
Democracy, Resistance, Narrative, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

49. Post-Summit Analyses: BRICS 2025 and the Rio Declaration

Author:
CEBRI
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
BRICS expanded faces a crucial moment for multilateralism. The period between the recent summit held in Rio de Janeiro and the upcoming presidency of the bloc in India, in 2026, offers an opportunity to plan the next steps. In its new configuration, following the 2024 expansion, Brazil faces challenges in recalibrating its role within the group. Within the context of new agendas, governance between annual presidencies becomes increasingly important. Brazil’s effort to assert its leadership hinges on influencing the bloc’s agenda during the next presidency, a process that begins as soon as the Rio summit was concluded. In this context, the closed-door meeting aims to analyze Brazil’s real capacity to act as a diplomatic bridge between BRICS and its traditional Western interlocutors, especially the European Union, as well as between the 2025 Summit in Brazil and the 2026 Summit under India’s presidency. Based on Brazil’s and New Delhi’s commitment to democracy and multilateralism, the bridge between these two presidencies may represent an effort to ease tensions, providing greater transparency and predictability to decisions made within BRICS. Additionally, it is essential to deepen the understanding of what can be drawn from the final communiqué, the Leaders’ Declaration of the 17th BRICS Summit, by analyzing the political impacts of the meeting and the developments stemming from the joint declaration.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Democracy, Multilateralism, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

50. The Venezuelan labyrinth: A crisis reframed

Author:
Eduardo Massieu Paredes
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Venezuela’s crisis has long been narrated through an opposition prism: crowds in the streets demanding democracy, negotiations or contested ballots. In 2025, the spotlight has shifted. The decisive question is not how hard Venezuelans push but what the United States is prepared to do, and why. A draft defence review proposes a major redeployment. Led by under‑secretary Elbridge Colby, it calls for concentrating military power on the homeland and the Americas. The plan envisages shifting forces away from Europe and the Indo‑Pacific and expanding air and naval operations along the southern U.S. border and throughout the Caribbean. It revives the logic of the Monroe Doctrine: prevent rival powers from embedding in Latin America. For the architects of Washington’s new Venezuela campaign, success will be judged less by what happens in Caracas than by how it plays in Washington DC or Florida. By measuring success in domestic terms, the United States may very well leave Venezuelans no closer to the democracy they seek. Washington’s handling of the Venezuelan crisis could be a preview of a wider strategic realignment. Colby’s “homeland first, hemisphere next” doctrine would pull military assets from the East and surge them into the Americas. Latin America’s response reflects both caution and fatigue. They will hedge: criticise the optics of U.S. gunboat diplomacy while quietly ignoring any weakening of the Maduro regime. The regime’s only remaining legitimacy is the loyalty of its security apparatus and the fear it can instill. The opposition, meanwhile, still holds the moral mandate. That legitimacy now carries even more weight after María Corina Machado was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. Against that backdrop, four trajectories remain on the table for the crisis itself: 1) Ruling‑party managed transition; 2) Negotiated exit; 3) Forced removal; 4) Regime endurance. Venezuela’s impasse is fast becoming a proving ground for Washington’s “America first” doctrine and a primary focus on the Western Hemisphere in their foreign policy in decades. The backdrop is a country with its people exhausted, and its institutions hollowed out so internally in Venezuela very little should be expected. A purely theatrical strike may consolidate the status quo rather than topple it. If the United States genuinely wants systemic change, it will need more than sinking boats and slogans, it will need a strategy that endures beyond the next news cycle. Whether that is what President Trump actually seeks remains an open question.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Democracy, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

51. Multicrimen, Economías Ilícitas y su Impacto en la Gobernanza y Democracia. Caso Nariño, Cauca y Valle del Cauca.

Author:
Germán Nicolás Pataquiva
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Colombia evidencia un patrón de reconfiguración patológica de la gobernanza en regiones como Nariño, Cauca y Valle del Cauca, donde el crimen organizado viene desarticulando el tejido social, imponiendo regímenes locales de terror y desplazando las autoridades legítimas. Estas dinámicas reflejan que se enfrenta una amenaza asimétrica hibrida, en el que estructuras trasnacionales del crimen y de economías ilícitas penetran el Estado, acelerando la erosión democrática. Tal como ocurre en otros contextos iberoamericanos, la convergencia entre violencia armada, cooptación de instituciones y debilitamiento del Estado de derecho generan escenarios en los que actores ilegales disputan con enormes ventajas el monopolio estatal de la fuerza, la tributación y el imperio de la ley. Con lo que se plantea un desafío critico a la seguridad ciudadana y la gobernabilidad por lo que se propone implementar un enfoque multinivel y la creación de una “Fuerza Intermedia”
Topic:
Non State Actors, Governance, Armed Forces, Democracy, Violence, Organized Crime, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

52. A Glimpse of Environmental Procedural Democracy in Poland: Thwarting the Civil Society’s Pursuit of Legal Action Against Environmental Plans

Author:
Karolina Karpus
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Public participation in environmental matters through access to justice is an indispensable aspect of environmental democracy. It has become increasingly evident that this type of democratic social control over the activities of public authorities should also encompass legislative acts. This poses a significant challenge for the contemporary political-legal system, as is demonstrably evident in the case of Polish environmental plans. Civic control of the legality of such general acts, enacted by public administration bodies in legislative or special procedures, is implemented in two steps. Firstly, it takes the form of participation through comments or questions on the draft of a plan submitted by civic society during the preparatory stage of the law-making process. Secondly, the control focuses on the plans after they are enacted. At this point, it takes the form of legal actions brought by members of the public before national courts in order to investigate the material and procedural legality of environmental plans. However, at present the access to justice in this respect is limited. The aim of the article is to analyse the legal reasons for this deficiency of Polish environmental procedural democracy and to assess it in the light of Poland’s international obligations.
Topic:
Civil Society, Environment, Democracy, Legislation, Justice, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

53. Media and Democracy in Crisis. A Comparative Analysis of Images of the Riots in the USA in the Public Media of Germany, Poland, and Russia

Author:
Dagmara Głuszek-Szafraniec and Patrycja Szostok-Nowacka
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This article presents a diverse European perspective on democracy and freedom of expression. The research was conducted on 73 public television materials after the storming of the Capitol in Germany, Poland, and Russia. The content analysis employed 75 categories in the categorization key. The German perspective focused on stabilizing the democratic system after Biden’s win and on respect for democratic values in the USA. The narrative style is centered around change, a natural process in a democracy. Polish public television dominated an atmosphere of anxiety, but the criticism of the democratic opposition in Poland found an analogy between the actions of media corporations and opposition politicians. The materials in the Russian service were biased and directed against American democracy in general. Criticism was levelled at the hypocrisy of the authorities, the inefficiency of democratic procedures, and the lack of respect for political traditions. The portrayal of crisis events in the USA depended on the level of democracy in the country and, to varying degrees, also served as a pretext for criticizing democracy in general and referencing events in the country being analyzed.
Topic:
Democracy, Media, Narrative, January 6, and Public Media
Political Geography:
Russia, Poland, Germany, and United States of America

54. Post-Military Politics and ‘Emi Lokan’ Democracy in Nigeria

Author:
Remi Chukwudi Okeke
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This paper interrogated post-military politics and ‘Emi Lokan’ democracy in Nigeria. It is a significant contribution to the ongoing academic focus on consolidating democracy in the country. According to the research hypothesis, post-military politics in the country still contain some unnecessary military-governance propensities that have not been fully identified for invalidation. The study examined the meaning of ‘Emi Lokan’ democracy. It investigated its democratic implications. The work was based on a qualitative research design, embedding the consultation of secondary sources of non-numeric data. A key message of the contribution is that the influence of military culture in the current democratic order in the country has remained undiminished. The work found that the ‘Emi Lokan’ political belief in Nigeria owes its distasteful origin to the interference of the military in the governance affairs of the nation. It is concluded in the paper that the undesirable ‘Emi Lokan’ democracy can only be stopped in the country by the coming together of a manifestly new breed of politicians. An auspicious attempt was made in this regard during the 2023 presidential election in the nation.
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

55. Václav Havel European Dialogues - Human rights and values in international affairs

Author:
Michael Ignatieff, Martin Palouš, Jiri Pehe, and Jacques Rupnik
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Vaclav Havel Library
Abstract:
In the aftermath of 1989, Vaclav Havel thought that human rights, democratic values and foreign policy could advance hand in hand. Today the dominant trend seems, on the contrary, to favour power politics at the expense of Havel’s legacy. The language of human rights, spoken in the past by dissidents, and still used today by lawyers and advocates for victims’ groups, is rarely shared by diplomats and the wider public. In an international arena marked by brutal conflict and war, human rights discourse seems increasingly inadequate. What is left of Havel’s legacy is the possibility to formulate a foreign policy that does not ignore the defence of human rights. The Vaclav Havel Library, in cooperation with the Faculty of Social Sciences of Charles University and supported by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, invited Michael Ignatieff, politician, academic and author, to address the issue of human rights in international affairs. He discussed this topic with Martin Palouš, Jiri Pehe and Jacques Rupnik, who chaired the event.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, International Affairs, European Union, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe

56. The Fragility of Democracy | Interview with the Georgian first female president Salome Zourabichvili

Author:
Salomé Zourabichvili and Tomáš Sedláček
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Vaclav Havel Library
Abstract:
Salome Zourabichvili, a Georgian politician and the first female president of her country, is set to visit the Czech Republic at the invitation of the Václav Havel Library and of Pavel Fischer, Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Security of the Senate of the Czech Parliament. Following parliamentary elections in Georgia in October 2024, the pro-Western president said the result had been manipulated by Russia, pledging to remain in office until new elections were held. However, MPs from the ruling Georgian Dream party, which has a majority in parliament after October’s elections, installed Mikheil Kavelashvili as the country’s new president. The director of the Václav Havel Library, Tomáš Sedláček, conducted an interview with Salome Zourabichvili on recent developments in the country, the backsliding of democracy and Georgia’s geopolitical importance at the Václav Havel Library on Wednesday 9 April 2025.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, Democratic Backsliding, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

57. Deep Down in the Stack: China's Entrenchment in Serbia's Technology Landscape

Author:
Sharinee Jagtiani
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Serbia, a land-locked nation with a population of under seven million, has emerged as a key player in the PRC’s Digital Silk Road (DSR) initiative within the Western Balkans. Its strategic location, connecting Southeastern Europe to Central and Western Europe, coupled with its role as a regional hub for internet traffic, has positioned Serbia as a valuable springboard for the PRC to market its technologies to the EU. Since 2012, Serbia has been an EU accession candidate and has prioritized digital transformation in its international engagements, notably with the PRC. The country’s commitment to digital advancement is also evident through its participation in the European Commission’s Digital Agenda for the Western Balkans in 2018 and the Digital Europe Program in 2023. Building on previous research conducted at GMF, this report delves into the evolution of the PRC’s DSR in Serbia, employing a technology stack (tech stack) framework to analyze the PRC’s presence. This framework encompasses five layers: network infrastructure, data infrastructure, device, application, and governance. By mapping the involvement of PRC-based entities within each layer, the report offers a detailed overview of the PRC’s technological engagement in Serbia, complete with illustrative examples. The report finds that the PRC and its affiliated entities have emerged as key players in Serbia’s rapid digitalization and modernization of its technology ecosystem. Many PRC technology firms such as Huawei, Nuctech, NetDragon, and BGI (formerly Beijing Genomics Institute)—are present across Serbia’s tech stack. Huawei, in particular, has made notable inroads into Serbia’s foundational network infrastructure. This includes its partnership with Serbia’s largest internet service provider (ISP), the state-owned Telekom Srbija and its positioning as a key partner in the country’s 5G rollout anticipated in 2026. Huawei’s involvement also extends to Serbia’s national and municipal data infrastructure—as a commercial tenant in the national data center and as a financer in Kragujevac’s city data center. These roles, coupled with limited transparency regarding the data stored in state-run facilities, have raised alarm among journalists, activists, and civil society actors about data security and the potential for state-enabled digital surveillance. These concerns have deepened with the introduction of surveillance systems supplied by PRC vendors, particularly under Serbia’s smart and “safe city” initiatives. The PRC’s deepening technological engagement exists in the context of weak implementation of Serbia’s data protection regulation. Serbian political leaders have consistently praised the PRC’s role in supporting their country’s technological ambitions, reflecting a broader strategic partnership that now also includes military cooperation—evident in the procurement of PRC-manufactured military drones and related technology transfers. The PRC’s growing technological footprint also coincides with Serbia’s democratic backsliding, as evidenced by its declining democracy score and its reclassification by Freedom House in 2019 as a “transitional or hybrid regime,” down from a “semi-consolidated democracy”. Collectively, these developments, have created an enabling environment for the emergence of digital surveillance in Serbia.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Democracy, Digitalization, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Serbia

58. Europe’s Moment of Truth: A Democracy Shield for Today and Tomorrow

Author:
Vassilis Ntousas and Etienne Soula
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Democracy in Europe is under growing pressure. Authoritarian regimes like Russia and the People’s Republic of China are conducting increasingly sophisticated foreign interference campaigns that blend information manipulation, cyberattacks, malign finance, economic coercion, and kinetic operations. Internally, illiberal actors are eroding the rule of law and civic freedoms as democratic norms deteriorate in the EU’s immediate neighborhood. The EU’s current response often remains fragmented and reactive, exposing it to external interference and internal backsliding. The European Democracy Shield, announced in 2024 and expected in 2025, presents a unique opportunity to consolidate democratic defense. If designed as more than a symbolic initiative, the Shield can equip the EU with a credible, coordinated, and enforceable framework to safeguard democratic integrity at home and project protection outward. The aim of this report is to support the development of an effective and resilient European Democracy Shield. To this end, Part 1 maps the current threat landscape, highlighting the main challenges to democratic systems across the EU. Part 2 identifies key institutional and policy gaps that limit the EU’s capacity to respond to these threats. Part 3 sets out ten actionable recommendations designed to ensure the Shield is not only politically resonant but also operationally impactful. These are: See the forest: Treat authoritarian interference as a longitudinal threat and forge an integrated, cross-domain response. Standardize language to strengthen strategy: Adopt clear and consistent terminology across institutions to support unified strategy and action. Enhance situational awareness: Build a real-time “Democracy Radar” combining EU-wide monitoring, foresight, and national-threat reporting. Maximize enforcement of existing tools: Fully implement and coordinate use of existing tools, most notably the Digital Services Act. Preserve information integrity: Address the financial and regulatory drivers of manipulation and reinforce safeguards around elections. Reinforce national democratic foundations: Link EU support to democratic reform and institutional capacity-building across member states. Develop national anti-foreign information manipulation and interference defenses: Ensure each member state has processes or institutions dedicated to the detection of, and response to, interference. Elevate the defender network: Recognize and protect the foundational role for civil society, media, and citizens in democracy protection. Invest in core support for democratic resilience: Move from short-term grants to strategic, long-term support for core democratic functions. Project protection outward: Support partner democracies with adaptable tools and deepen democratic cooperation globally. Taken together, these steps would transform the Shield into a strategic, whole-of-Union response to both external and internal challenges while positioning Europe as a global leader in demonstrating how democracy can be safeguarded by design, today and tomorrow.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Foreign Interference, and Information Manipulation
Political Geography:
Europe

59. How To Help Georgia Out of Its Growing Democracy Crisis

Author:
Irakli Sirbiladze
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Georgia is fighting for its political future. The ruling Georgian Dream party now governs through an expansive repertoire of repressive tools to stifle dissenting political voices. Pro-democracy actors are mounting a resilient resistance to autocratization, seeking to defend a vision of politics in which the country is governed democratically and strong independent institutions guarantee that politicians serve the public and are held to account when they do not. Georgian Dream’s incremental anti-democratic turn became more pronounced as the war in Ukraine and the EU accession process forced it make a choice. It chose an anti-West stance in response to the war and anti-democratic measures to derail EU accession. The result was unprecedented Western sanctions on political figures and the deterioration of ties with the West, especially since the fraudulent parliamentary elections in 2024. At the same time, the government has sought closer ties with China and Russia. Georgian Dream’s hope for business as usual with the West is proving futile, whether regarding the EU or the new administration in the United States. This leaves Georgia increasingly isolated and weakened on the international stage. Georgia’s foreseeable future seems likely to be one of protracted political uncertainty rather than clear-cut autocratic consolidation or democratic comeback. Neither the government nor its opponents have the capabilities to fully achieve their goals. Georgian Dream is constrained by growing societal dissatisfaction with its governance while pro-democracy actors are hampered by the disunity among opposition parties and the increasingly hostile environment for democracy at home and globally. In this context, its Western partners can and must take steps to help Georgia back toward a more democratic path, which would also aid their geopolitical objectives. These include using targeted economic and personal sanctions against figures in Georgian Dream to curtail its repressive apparatus, providing flexible support for Georgian civil society to help it maintain democratic resilience, engaging with public-opinion leaders and the private sector across the country to stress the opportunities that the EU membership offers and to counter anti-West disinformation, and undertaking close-door and public diplomacy efforts, backed up by the credible threat of consequences in case of no action on the part of the government.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Georgia, and Black Sea

60. Russia and China in Central Asia’s Technology Stack

Author:
Dylan Welch
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Central Asia’s role as a geopolitical battleground among Russia, China, Europe, and the United States has grown in recent years as Western countries seek trade and digital connectivity routes that bypass Russian infrastructure. While Western discourse on a “Middle Corridor” through Central Asia has focused on railways, ports and pipelines, China’s Digital Silk Road is quietly reshaping the region’s digital landscape and deepening strategic dependencies on Beijing. At the same time, Central Asian governments are drawing primarily on PRC technologies and Russian regulatory models to strengthen their own digital authoritarian regimes, risking joint domination by the increasingly aligned governments in Beijing and Moscow. China’s increasing control over the region’s “technology stack” could have an outsized impact on the future of digital connectivity, cybersecurity, and geopolitical competition across Eurasia. Russia’s regulatory influence on the region’s governments could shape digital governance norms across Eurasia. For Central Asian actors and Western policymakers invested in preserving the region’s strategic autonomy, it is crucial to understand these vulnerabilities and offer viable alternatives in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector. Ensuring a resilient and diversified digital landscape in Central Asia is therefore not only a regional concern but a vital issue for global security. This report seeks to shed light on the influence of Russia and China on the ICT sectors of three Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. It uses the “technology stack” method adapted from two previous reports by GMF’s Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD) on the future internet and the digital information stack released in 2020 and 2022. The framework is used to examine one country’s presence in and penetration of another country’s technology and regulatory ecosystem. The analysis of the resulting dependencies provides an indicative, rather than exhaustive overview of Russia and China’s technological footprint in Central Asia, offering key examples and highlighting areas where policymakers can focus their attention with the goal to de-risk digital technologies and governance in Central Asia.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Central Asia, Eurasia, and Asia

61. The EU’s New Black Sea Security Strategy: Right Goals, Unclear Means

Author:
Bogdan Cozma and Laurențiu Pleșca
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The Black Sea region has always been a strategic battlefield of ideologies and influence, not least during the Cold War. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, it experienced a period of relative tranquility as the geopolitical focus shifted toward other hotspots such as the Middle East and the South China Sea. In more recent times—notably after the 2008 Russia-Georgia war and Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea and its war in eastern Ukraine—the region and its importance for the security architecture of Europe slowly re-emerged on the agenda of policymakers in the EU and the United States. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 then pushed it to the forefront of transatlantic security concerns. Today there is a clear consensus among the EU, NATO, and the United States that they need a fundamental rethink toward a strong, long-term strategy for the Black Sea. Having expressed its willingness to become more of a geopolitical actor, the EU has now reiterated its commitment to the region by adopting a strategy on Black Sea security, which was published on May 28. The strategy identifies five countries as key players in the region and calls for closer cooperation with them: member states Bulgaria and Romania, candidate countries Moldova and Ukraine, and Türkiye, a NATO member with a substantial military presence and strategic influence in the region. Unfortunately, however, the EU’s new strategy does not contain a concrete action plan, a clear implementation timeline, or, most importantly, a dedicated budget. Without these, the EU’s ability to translate its political intentions into concrete outcomes for the security of the Black Sea states will remain significantly limited. If its strategic approach remains largely declarative, this increases the risk of ceding influence to Russia in the immediate region and beyond it. A more concrete, robust, and coordinated EU security presence there is still urgently needed.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Domestic Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Black Sea

62. Democratic by Design: Implementing and Innovating Democracy-Affirming Technologies

Author:
Caitlin Goldenberg, Adrienne Goldstein, Sharinee Jagtiani, and Lindsay Gorman
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The emergence of critical new technologies, from quantum information tools to Artificial Intelligence (AI), has ushered in a new digital era. While these technologies promise greater efficiency and innovation to the benefit of society, if misused they can also help entrench repression and autocratic control. What is needed instead is a positive, rights-respecting vision of democratic innovation. GMF’s AI and Democracy programming, including its 2024 Elections Content Credentials Repository and 2024 AI and Democracy Hackathon, aimed to advance the development, use, and public understanding of democracy-affirming technologies (DATs)—that is, technologies that are intentionally designed to protect and promote democratic values. This report features insights from two pilot projects aimed at advancing the implementation of existing DATs and the innovation of new ones.
Topic:
Democracy, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Technologies, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

63. How To Help Armenia Navigate Its Democracy-Security Nexus

Author:
Narek Sukiasyan
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The 2018 Velvet Revolution was a breakthrough for Armenia’s democracy, but progress has since stalled. The June 2026 parliamentary elections will be a decisive test in a polarized environment dominated by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party and an opposition tied to former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan. This dominant dichotomy, fueled by both sides, frustrates the attempts of alternative forces to come to the fore. Support for Civil Contract is stable, but the majority of voters are undecided, disengaged, or disillusioned by the trauma of the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh and the 2023 ethnic cleansing there as well as by the lack of credible political alternatives. Civil Contract’s political dominance over the last seven years has led to unilateral lawmaking and some controversial actions against opposition figures, media, civil society, and the judiciary. However, recent municipal elections saw the party fail to secure majorities in major cities. While the diplomatic breakthrough in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, marked by the White House deal in August, sets a path for stability in the near term, it is crucial to follow up and to push for a final agreement. Azerbaijan’s continued demands and rhetoric cast doubt as to the extent of its commitment to the process. Similarly, Türkiye still does not meet its commitment to end its blockade of Armenia. Meanwhile, Armenia’s drift away from Russia and pivot to the West has been characterized by its increased ambition to join the EU. It also seeks to diversify its security with the help of its Western partners, advancing with reforms and political alignment with Euro-Atlantic priorities. Until the next elections, Armenia is likely to continue deepening its ties with the West while maintaining cautious cooperation with Russia, while peace talks with Azerbaijan drag on, and relations with Türkiye remain complex. It is likely that Civil Contract will campaign on defending Armenia’s sovereignty and on Western alignment while the fragmented opposition struggles to broaden its support. The most probable scenario is another Civil Contract government with a reduced majority, which will continue efforts toward peace with Azerbaijan and balancing engagement with the West and Russia. Two other scenarios (in descending order of likelihood) are a government coalition of Civil Contract and smaller pro-West parties, which will push a more confrontational stance toward Russia, or an opposition-led government realigning the country with Moscow and further undermining democratization. The EU, its member states, and the United States should support Armenia by helping it strengthen its democratic institutions and its security in order to preserve the public’s confidence in democracy. The country needs a combination of financial, technical, and political assistance to facilitate democratization, to resist external pressures, and to maintain its sovereignty. This includes backing the consolidation of democratic institutions, promoting electoral integrity, encouraging a diversity of democratic actors, and empowering civil society, all against the background of addressing the country’s security challenges. By providing Armenia with the tools to defend its territorial integrity and to pursue democratic reforms, the West can help revive the optimism sparked by the Velvet Revolution and overturn a public disillusionment that could weaken Armenia’s democracy and its ties with Europe.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Armenia, and United States of America

64. Decoupling EU Enlargement From Liberal Democracy: The Engagement of Hungary’s Government in Georgia and Serbia

Author:
Anastasia Mgaloblishvili
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted the EU to revitalize its enlargement policy by granting candidate status to Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. After decades of “enlargement fatigue”, the EU sought to reassert itself as a normative actor in its neighborhood. Because accession depends on candidate countries’ compliance with liberal-democratic criteria, enlargement has significant potential to advance democratization. Not all member-state governments, however, see enlargement as a way to promote liberal democracy. Since coming to power in Hungary in 2010, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party have positioned themselves as challengers of liberalism at home and abroad, with the openly stated goal of transforming the EU from within. Together with potentially helping in the future to protect themselves from sanctions, which became a realistic scenario after the EU froze some of Hungary’s funding in 2022, decoupling enlargement from liberal democracy also served their goal of strengthening illiberalism internationally. The revival of enlargement coincided with Hungary’s government temporarily holding important institutional levers to challenge the EU’s normative agenda—a Hungarian diplomat as enlargement commissioner and the presidency of the Council of the EU—in addition to its permanent veto power in the council. As well as to obstruct Ukraine’s accession, Orbán and Fidesz have used these and other tools to undermine the EU’s approach to two candidate countries with autocratizing governments: Georgia and Serbia. In Georgia’s case, Hungary’s government diluted EU pressure on the Georgian Dream government, which has accelerated the country’s democratic backsliding. It did so through high-level visits and supportive statements, blocking sanctions, and helping entrench illiberal values that violated the EU’s Copenhagen Criteria. Orbán and Fidesz built close ties with Georgian Dream. They helped it maintain a pro-EU veneer for the sake of its electorate as well as deflect the blame for Georgia’s lack of accession progress onto the EU and the West. In Serbia’s case, where the EU applied less pressure on President Aleksandar Vučić and his Serbian Progressive Party government for strategic reasons, most of Budapest’s efforts have aimed to accelerate the country’s accession. Before 2022, Orbán and Fidesz promoted this goal through, for example, deploying a high-level “EU integration adviser” to Belgrade and through the softening of critical reports in the European Commission. This intensified after 2022, with Hungary’s government using its council presidency to advance Serbia’s membership and accusing the EU of penalizing the country. This reinforced Vučić’s narrative portraying the EU as responsible for reforms and the accession process stalling. With enlargement back on the EU agenda, Hungary’s actions shed light on the challenges facing the EU’s strongest democracy-promotion tool. This aligns with the growing calls for limiting the veto power of member-state governments when they undermine the union’s liberal-democratic foundations, as well as for shifting key foreign policy and enlargement decisions from unanimity to qualified majority voting.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Hungary, and Georgia

65. Poland’s Rule-of-Law Repair: Trapped in Institutional Paralysis?

Author:
Anna Wójcik
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Two years since taking office in Poland, the governing coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk has made limited progress in repairing the rule of law following the backsliding under the previous government led by the Law and Justice (PiS) party. The change of government in December 2023 raised hopes of democratic repair but legislative reformsremain at an early stage. This reflects not only the depth of institutional damage done by PiSbut also political constraints. The Tusk government has been operating under the conditions of cohabitation with PiS-backed presidents, first with Andrzej Duda and since August with Karol Nawrocki. The constitutional framework grants significant powers to the president, including the authority to veto statutes and to refer them for constitutional review. Cohabitation has drastically curtailed the ability to pursue rule-of-law reforms, particularly in judicial governance. Moreover, the preparation of draft legislation in several key fields has proceeded more slowly than expected. In 2024, the parliament passed three acts aimed at restoring constitutional standards: two concerning the Constitutional Tribunal and one reforming the National Council of the Judiciary, but none has entered into force. Duda referred the three acts to the Constitutional Tribunal, which remains an illiberal enclave aligned with PiS, and in the course of this year ithas invalidated all three. Consequently, legislative change regarding the institutions central to judicial independence is effectively paralyzed. The government also pledged to separate the offices of minister of justice and prosecutor general, a reform long demanded by European monitoring bodies. Despite repeated commitments, this change has not yet been implemented. The most sensitive challenge for repairing the rule of law concerns judges appointed througha politicized procedure introduced under PiS. Addressing their status is necessary to restore judicial independence and to protect legal certainty. However, it involves difficult decisions affecting accountability, individual rights, and systemic stability. Although a legislative proposal is now ready, Nawrocki has indicated that he will veto any major judicial reform. He has also announced the creation of a new advisory body under the presidency to draft proposals for reforming the justice system, a move widely seen as an attempt to stymie the government’s initiatives. Overall, the effort to repair the rule of law in Poland is constrained by polarization, institutional stalemate, and a political context that is increasingly dominated by the approach of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2027. While the government remains committed to reform, presidential obstruction and the continued role of the Constitutional Tribunal as a veto player limit progress. Poland therefore finds itself in a prolonged phase of limited rule-of-law repair.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Rule of Law, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

66. EU Enlargement and Democracy

Author:
Emiliano Alessandri
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has put enlargement back at the top of the EU agenda. After a long hiatus—Croatia was the last country to join in 2013—the enlargement process is now being revived. Albania and North Macedonia finally opened accession negotiations in 2022, but only after a long wait. That same year, Bosnia and Herzegovina was granted candidate status, and Kosovo, Moldova, and Ukraine submitted applications for membership. The latter two have since started accession talks. Geopolitics is clearly the main driver behind the momentum and is one reason behind member states’ new support for enlargement, at least in principle. Only a short time ago, many national governments expressed reservations, particularly regarding the EU’s “absorption capacity”. The prevailing logic today, given the return of strategic rivalry and conflict, is that EU enlargement can help anchor unstable Western Balkan and Eastern European countries that could otherwise fall under Russian or Chinese influence. A December 18 European Council statement clearly noted that enlargement is “a geostrategic investment”. Prioritizing such considerations, however, means that traditional economic arguments take a back seat. The same trend increasingly applies to concerns about meaningful political and societal transformation in candidate states. But this is a mistake that needs to be addressed now to avoid more serious problems later.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe

67. Fortifying the Essence of Democracy and Inclusive Representationin the 1973 Constitution of Pakistan:Envisioning a New Agenda for the Future

Author:
Hina Habib
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The constitution of Pakistanisthe most significantand crucial pillar ofPakistan’s governance, which upholds democracy,facilitates public representation, and encourages the participation of minorities and other segments in thepolitical structureof a state.Although various amendmentsand positive developmentshave been made, it has stillbeen criticizedregarding its lack of flexibility,owing to the subjugation of therightsof ethnic minoritiesandrepeated coups.Politicians have exploited itfor short-term goals that underminenational cohesion and harmonyamong diverseactors.This paper exploresthe themesof democracy and public representation by considering Pakistan’s Constitution.In addition,it emphasizes the participation of marginalized segments and minorities in the political process. It also commentson the current political structure’s effectivenessand identifiesareas for improvement,as the nation has successfully ended50years under this apex law. Theresearch usesexploratory researchusingqualitative method to conduct the study.Across the board, this research envisions a future scenario for Pakistan marked by inclusivity and better public representation. It does so byshapinga strategy for a more prosperous Pakistanin the coming decades.
Topic:
Governance, Minorities, Democracy, Constitution, and Representation
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

68. Elections, Power Transitions and the Risk of Atrocity Crimes

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
Genuine and credible elections present a crucial opportunity to reaffirm democratic norms, uphold the rule of law and ensure that people’s voices are heard. Yet, all too often elections shift from being a positive expression of democratic will to flashpoints for political violence and polarization. In 2024, a record number of people voted in elections – with more than 60 countries, representing nearly half of the world’s population, electing local, national and international representatives. However, many elections were marred by intimidation, violence and serious human rights violations, severely undermining the right to vote and to be elected. This policy brief draws on insights from a June 2024 event co-hosted by the European Union and the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect. It examines how electoral processes, particularly when held in conflict-affected, repressive or polarized environments, can exacerbate existing tensions and increase the risk of serious human rights violations and atrocity crimes. The brief outlines long-standing structural vulnerabilities and short-term triggers that often emerge throughout the electoral process. A rights-respecting, inclusive and transparent electoral process is essential not only for electoral integrity but also for preventing identity-based violence and atrocity crimes. The policy brief provides concrete recommendations to help national and international actors prevent and respond to election-related violence and atrocity risks.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Risk, Atrocities, and Transition of Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

69. Democracy at a Crossroads: How Americans View Trump’s First 100 Days in Office

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
Executive Summary Relatively few voters regret their decision in November; however, three in ten non-voters regret not turning out to vote last fall. Nearly all Americans who voted for Kamala Harris (95%) and Donald Trump (92%) are satisfied with their decision to vote or how they voted, as well as 85% of those who voted for another candidate. Thirty-one percent of non-voting Americans say they regret their decision not to vote, compared with 56% who say they are satisfied. Just around four in ten Americans (43%) approve of the job that Trump is doing as president. Roughly four in ten Americans (43%) approve of the job that Trump is doing as president, while a majority (54%) disapprove. White Christian groups are the most likely to approve of the job that Trump is doing as president, including three in four white evangelical Protestants (76%), compared with one-third or fewer of other religious Americans. While Trump gets slightly higher marks for his handling of immigration (48% of Americans approve), just four in ten approve of his handling of the economy (41%) and Russia’s war with Ukraine (40%). White Christian groups are significantly more likely than Christians of color, non-Christians, and unaffiliated Americans to approve of the job that Trump is doing handling immigration, including most white evangelical Protestants (78%), Latter-day Saints (65%), white mainline/non-evangelical Protestants (64%), and white Catholics (63%). While just four in ten Americans have favorable views of Trump, fewer view either Vice President JD Vance or presidential advisor Elon Musk favorably. Four in ten Americans (40%) express favorable views of Trump, including 83% of Republicans, 35% of independents, and 8% of Democrats. White Americans, men, older generations, and those who do not have a four-year degree hold significantly more favorable views of Trump than non-white Americans, women, millennials, Gen Zers, and those who are college-educated. Roughly one-third of Americans have a favorable view of Vance (35%), compared with half of those who hold an unfavorable opinion (50%). Most Americans (58%) view Musk unfavorably. Musk holds less favorable views among Republicans than Trump, 71% vs. 83%. Americans are more likely to view Trump as a dangerous dictator than a strong leader restoring America’s greatness, although such views are polarized along partisan and religious lines. A majority of Americans agree that “President Trump is a dangerous dictator whose power should be limited before he destroys American democracy” (52%), compared with 44% who agree that “President Trump is a strong leader who should be given the power he needs to restore America’s greatness.” Most Democrats (87%) agree with the first statement, while most Republicans (81%) agree with the second statement. Around seven in ten Christian nationalism Adherents (73%) and Sympathizers (70%) view Trump as a strong leader who should be given the power to restore America’s greatness, compared with 46% of Christian nationalism Skeptics and just 15% of Rejecters. Among Americans who voted for Trump and regret their decision, 55% agree that Trump is a dangerous dictator; agreement that Trump is a dangerous dictator is even higher among non-voters who regret their decision not to vote (68%).
Topic:
Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Voting, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

70. The impact of terrorism on democratic support in Africa

Author:
Souleymane Yameogo and Anja Neundorf
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does chronic terrorism affect support for democracy in fragile states? While most research examines isolated attacks in stable democracies, little is known about persistent violence in insecure, weakly institutionalised contexts. This paper addresses that gap by analysing Africa, where terrorism is widespread and democratic transitions remain incomplete. Using Afrobarometer survey data matched with terrorism events, we employ an entropy balancing strategy within an unexpected event-during-survey (UESD) design to estimate causal effects. We find that terrorism consistently undermines democratic support – especially in countries with stronger liberal institutions and lower development. Younger and older citizens are particularly susceptible to attitudinal shifts. These findings highlight how terrorism’s political impact hinges not just on exposure, but also on broader structural vulnerabilities shaped by institutions, development, and demography. The study advances theories of authoritarian reflex and threat perception, offering new insights into sustaining democracy amid chronic insecurity.
Topic:
Security, Development, Terrorism, Democracy, Institutions, and Public Safety
Political Geography:
Africa

71. Charting the Radical Right’s Influence on EU Foreign Policy

Author:
Rosa Balfour and Stefan Lehne
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The political landscape in the European Union (EU) is changing rapidly. For decades, the traditional mainstream parties of the center right and center left have been losing ground, while antiestablishment parties have been gaining support. According to research by the University of Amsterdam, 32 percent of voters opted for antiestablishment parties in 2021, up from 12 percent in the early 1990s.1 Radical-right parties make up about half of this share, and their support has risen faster than that of any other group. Many of the fourteen parties examined in this study have achieved vote shares of 20 percent or more. The radical right is now in government, or supports the government, in Finland, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden. In the Netherlands, it is likely that Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV) will be part of a governing coalition. In other countries, these parties have become the leading opposition groups. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has been carefully preparing to win the 2027 presidential election. Setbacks for the radical right in Poland and Spain in the second half of 2023 have shown that the relentless rise of these parties is not a foregone conclusion. However, current polling for several national elections and the June 2024 European Parliament elections indicates a strong likelihood of their continuing electoral success.2 Chega (Enough), a recently established party that shot to 18 percent of the vote in Portugal’s March 2024 election, ended the country’s exceptionalism as one of the few European nations without a right-wing populist party.3 The June 2024 Belgian federal election may see the Flemish nationalist party Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest), which so far has been strong in Flanders but kept out of national politics, break through at the federal level. Polling for Austria’s September 2024 parliamentary election suggests a surge in support for the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ).4 In contrast with populism, which has a thin ideology focused mainly on fomenting the anger of the so-called pure people against corrupt elites and which has risen on both the left and the right of the political spectrum, the radical-right parties of the 2020s have a more distinct ideological profile.5 All have national specificities, such as rural origins in Northern Europe or ethnonationalism in Central Europe. Several parties are rooted in postwar fascism, such as the FPÖ, RN, Brothers of Italy (FdI), the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), and the Sweden Democrats (SD). For some groups, strong connections with society and well-developed party structures compensated for their marginal impact in national politics. Before its landslide victory in Italy’s 2022 parliamentary election, support for FdI hovered at around 5 percent, as it did for the party’s predecessor throughout the period since World War II.6 Other parties, such as Hungary’s Fidesz, gained ground as classic populist or even mainstream parties and benefited from an aura of respectability even as they shifted toward ethnonationalist or nativist positions. Since the 1990s, liberal-democratic parties have started to adopt some of the ideas of the radical right while keeping the parties themselves out of government. In the 2000s, the radical right became normalized, in some countries becoming part of the political mainstream. During this process, as political scientists Cas Mudde and Jan-Werner Müller have argued, liberal-democratic parties have shifted toward the radical right in the hope—mostly in vain—of keeping their traditional electorates. Yet, in practice, this approach has led voters to prefer the real radical right to its imitators. In other words, the tactic of chasing the radical right has not paid off electorally. Voters have moved toward the radical right as a consequence, not as a cause, of liberal-democratic parties’ attempts to contain it.7 Today, the far right is dominated by the radical right, which, unlike the extreme right, accepts the essence of democracy but rejects its liberal elements: minority rights, the rule of law, and the separation of powers.8 The radical-right parties selected for this study all share deep antimigration sentiments, often determined by race or religion; a nationalism that makes these parties Euroskeptic and opposed to what they see as a Brussels-based dictatorship; and skepticism of climate change policies. Many of these parties also espouse deeply conservative family values that go against women’s and LGBTQ rights. Foreign policy is usually not the strong suit of these parties, apart from their keen interest in the external dimension of migration policy. These parties pay close attention to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine but are sharply divided on this issue, with positions ranging from deep mistrust of Russia to close alignment with the Kremlin’s arguments. A future Donald Trump administration could lead to new divisions in the EU, as some member states are likely to align with the United States under any circumstances. This would mean that many of the EU’s current foreign policy positions, such as support for Ukraine, would come to an end. As radical-right parties rise to prominence at the national and the EU level, they are developing views on a range of foreign policy issues, building increasingly influential international networks and think tanks, and learning from each other’s successful tactics in solidifying their control of the state and propagating their values.9 For some radical-right parties that have been established in government, such as Fidesz and, until October 2023, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, the upgrading of foreign policy on their political agendas can be inferred by the fact that all diplomatic postings in the EU are political appointments. Hungary’s foreign policy machinery is under the direct control of the prime minister.10 Diplomatic colleagues of the Hungarian representatives in Brussels know that the country’s negotiating positions are micromanaged in Budapest.11 Other countries, such as Italy and Finland, have chosen to rely on the credibility of career diplomats to navigate the Brussels machinery, preferring compromise over confrontation and isolation. For a long time, European politicians and EU institutions have assumed the radical right could be contained. Now, the challenge of the radical right needs to be addressed more seriously. Just as this phenomenon has eroded democracy and the rule of law in some EU member states, so foreign policy may become affected at a time when collective action is most needed to address international issues. As the radical right challenges the EU’s attempts to navigate a dangerous world, European politics can no longer afford complacency.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, European Union, Democracy, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

72. South Africa’s Cyber Strategy Under Ramaphosa: Limited Progress, Low Priority

Author:
Joe Devanny and Russell Buchan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
During the decades of apartheid, South Africa was an international pariah. Since the country transitioned to majority rule in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated politics, and the ANC has itself transitioned from a national liberation movement to a party of government. Domestically, South African cyber strategy should be seen as part of the ANC’s wider political challenge of trying to deliver economic growth, development, and prosperity. Over thirty years, the ANC has struggled to deliver on this agenda in a profoundly unequal society with infrastructure and institutions that have weakened particularly over the past fifteen years. Alongside confronting domestic challenges, the ANC has also tried to reshape South Africa’s global role. This was perhaps most visible under its first president, Nelson Mandela (1994–1999), but it was arguably pursued most systematically under Mandela’s successor, Thabo Mbeki (1999–2008). This reorientation of South Africa in the world was an ambitious and complex project, the foundations of which were the country’s leading role in its region and continent as well as its ties within the wider Global South. The project entailed tensions between the progressive promotion of human rights and freedoms, on the one hand, and the cultivation of instrumental relations with authoritarian and repressive states, on the other. These tensions continue to affect South African foreign policy, including its cyber diplomacy. South Africa identifies cybersecurity as a key national priority and has to this end adopted a national cybersecurity strategy and established a military Cyber Command. The reality, however, is that other issues have been consistently ranked above cybersecurity, such as addressing corruption, poverty, racial and social injustice, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Cybersecurity has therefore not been seen as a high priority by successive South African governments. This has left Cyber Command underresourced and unmotivated. This deprioritization means that South Africa is unlikely to emerge as a prominent military or intelligence cyber power anytime soon. The wider lack of national prioritization will also make it harder for so-called like-minded states—which are bound together by a mutual respect for democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—to form an effective partnership with South Africa on the topic of cybersecurity. South Africa’s approach to international cyber governance debates has been cautious and noncommittal, reflecting cyber diplomacy’s relatively low priority in its national strategy. What position South Africa takes in cyber debates is, however, of keen interest to the international community. An important question is whether South Africa will support the existing multistakeholder approach to cyber governance that is championed by like-minded states or join China and Russia in their efforts to recalibrate this approach and push for greater state control over cyberspace. Indeed, under President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa has not yet published its national position explaining how international law applies to cyberspace. A related question is whether South Africa will join like-minded states in elaborating how existing international law applies to cyberspace or side with China and Russia to campaign for new, bespoke international law (for example, treaties) to regulate this domain. When examining these questions, it is important to recognize the context of the ANC’s long-standing ties with Russia, both during its thirty years in government and in its previous decades struggling for national liberation. This is helpful for understanding South Africa’s interactions with Brazil, Russia, India, and China (which form the BRICS bloc with South Africa) and forecasting its future positions in cyber governance debates. For example, South Africa has been reluctant to unambiguously condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and it appears to have supported Moscow by covertly supplying it with weapons. In the longer term, South Africa’s positions in cyber diplomacy debates will likely be shaped by trends in both domestic politics—such as the ANC’s waning electoral performance—and the success of digital development. In this context, it is perhaps advisable for like-minded states, such as the United States, to focus on cyber capacity-building assistance and ensure that these efforts play into the wider development agenda in South Africa.
Topic:
Corruption, Poverty, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, and Racial Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, Iran, and South Africa

73. Latin America’s New Right Wings: Shifting Ideologies, Transnational Ties

Author:
Ernesto Bohoslavsky and Magdalena Broquetas
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
New far-right forces pose a growing threat to democracy across Latin America and the Caribbean. Read more in the Spring 2024 issue of the NACLA Report on the Americas.
Topic:
Climate Change, Democracy, Violence, Far Right, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

74. The Far-Right Tide Reaches Uruguay

Author:
Magdalena Broquetas and Gerardo Caetano
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
A new radical right with links to the dictatorship has made unprecedented gains. So far, the country’s strong democracy has tempered its worst impacts.
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, Ideology, and Far Right
Political Geography:
South America and Uruguay

75. Tunisia: Public Opinion Report 2023

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Over the past dozen years, Tunisia has experienced dramatic political change. In 2011, the Jasmine Revolution led to the fall of its long-standing leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, ushering in a period of political instability. Following the rewriting of the constitution, free and fair elections were held but yielded only weak and largely ineffective governments. Although Tunisians enjoyed far greater political rights, economically the country regressed. A decade after the revolution, GDP per capita had declined significantly. Stories of corruption within government institutions remained common, yielding an increasingly frustrated public. Elections may give voters a say, but the outcomes of the system often appeared no better than in the days of Ben Ali. Citizens demanded radical change and looked for a leader who they believed could deliver actual results. In the 2019 presidential elections, many Tunisians turned to Kaïs Saïed as a solution. Saïed ran a populist campaign as a political outsider, calling for ending corruption and reforms to the electoral system. In the final round of voting, he captured nearly three-quarters of the vote for an overwhelming victory and strong electoral mandate. In July 2021, Saïed dismissed the prime minister and suspended parliament. Ruling by decree, many members of the judiciary were dismissed and many opposition politicians were arrested. Despite international criticism of these actions, results from the 2021 Arab Barometer demonstrated that most Tunisians were in favor of his actions.1 Just three months after the events of July 25, 2021, most Tunisians had confidence in the president, a majority were optimistic about their economic future for the first time in years, and most believed the government was finally tackling the problem of corruption. In short, many Tunisians had hope for their country’s future. In late 2023, Tunisians remained more optimistic than they had been before the election of Saïed, but Arab Barometer’s survey suggests that some are starting to lose hope. Promises of economic improvements have not been realized—just one-in-ten rate the economy as good, which is largely unchanged since 2013. Economic optimism has also fallen, dropping by 14 points since 2021. During this period, hunger has also increased dramatically, with twothirds of Tunisians saying they have gone without food at least once in the previous month. Moreover, the most common perception is that government mismanagement is the source of food insecurity. Views of most political institutions are relatively weak. Just over a third have confidence in the government while less than a quarter trust parliament. However, trust in President Saïed remains strong, with about three-quarters expressing confidence in their leader. Still, this level is a six point decrease from 2021.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Migration, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, Freedom, and Gender
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

76. Mauritania: Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:
Sahel Foundation
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Mauritania has begun a new phase of peaceful rotation of power, being an embodiment of democracy. This democratic transition has been seen through the country’s last government. Therefore, we observe the rising trend of citizens’ trust in the current government. Nine percent of Mauritanians say they trust the government to a great extent, and more than a quarter (27 percent) say they trust it. In contrast, 38 percent say they have little trust in the government, while nearly one-fifth (22 percent) have no trust in their government at all. In order to increase citizens’ trust in the government, it may be worthwhile to enhance communication between the government and citizens and transparently explain decisions and plans. Moreover, it could be important to that end to improve the quality of public services such as health, education, and infrastructure; strengthen the role of citizens in decision-making and participation in the political process; and take effective measures to combat corruption and promote good governance.
Topic:
Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, and Freedom
Political Geography:
Africa and Mauritania

77. Morocco: Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Morocco has endured multiple crises in recent years including the Coronavirus pandemic and the earthquake that hit the country on September 9, 2023. The aftermath of these crises produces what could be described as two Moroccos: one for the wealthier and better educated, another for the poorer and less educated. Moroccans are clearly divided in their views of almost all issues based on their socioeconomic status (SES). Economic pressure persists, with only a third of Moroccans rating their economy positively. While optimism about the future of the economy has increased, it is largely driven by those with a higher socioeconomic status. Their less-fortunate compatriots are far less optimistic and more concerned about increasing inequality and food insecurity. Trust in the Moroccan government remains relatively low, but trust in parliament, regional government, judiciary, and civil society organizations has increased. Still, those struggling financially tend to be less trusting of all these bodies. Similarly, satisfaction with government performance on economic issues is low, especially among the poor. Moroccans are more satisfied with the provision of certain services, including security and infrastructure. On the other hand, education in particular is among the public services in which Moroccans exhibit the lowest levels of satisfaction. Corruption remains a major concern, with the government seen as not doing enough to combat it. This view is especially true among people with lower socioeconomic status. Wealthier and more educated Moroccans are more positive in their rating of the government’s work on combating corruption. However, many Moroccans are resorting to bribery or connection to navigate the bureaucracy. Economic conditions and corruption are causing Moroccans to consider emigrating. Youth and those facing financial pressure are far more likely to have a desire to leave their country, mainly in pursuit of better economic opportunities. Western countries remain the preferred destination for most of the potential migrants in Morocco, many of whom are willing to leave even if they did not have the required documents to do so. While support for democracy has fluctuated over the past few years, recent trends suggest an increase in support for democratic governance. Moroccans acknowledge that democratic systems have their shortcomings, yet they maintain a belief that democracy is preferable to other forms of governance and particularly support a multi-party parliamentary system.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, and Freedom
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

78. Bolivia: desk study on aid and democracy

Author:
Swetha Ramachandran
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study is part of a series of ten country-focused desk studies on aid and democracy prepared under the project The state and statebuilding in the Global South. They are prepared under the guidance of Rachel M. Gisselquist as background to a broader research effort on aid, governance, and democracy promotion. The studies follow a common template and each draws on the research literature and selected cross-national sources to discuss regime type and timeline, findings from the literature on democracy/democratization, findings from the literature on aid and democracy/democratization, aid flows and sources, and specific aid examples. This study addresses the case of Bolivia, with focus on the post-Cold War period.
Topic:
Foreign Aid, Governance, Democracy, and Post-Cold War
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

79. Overcoming digital threats to democracy

Author:
Lydia Khalil
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The internet was once considered an open door to democracy and liberty. Today, it is seen as an agent of democratic erosion. Digital challenges to democracy include the scale and spread of disinformation and misinformation, the increase in polarisation and extremism that are facilitated and escalated online, and inadequate regulation. Digital platforms are increasingly perceived by the public as serving the needs and interests of the powerful rather than the public good. Average users have few means to influence key decisions and debates about how digital technologies are used and developed. The rules of the digital sphere — whether made by tech companies, regulators, or politicians — often lack public legitimacy. Applying deliberative democracy principles — where small but representative groups of people make decisions after deliberating on issues in depth — can help address the challenges of legitimacy and generate broadly acceptable solutions to the problems that bedevil online spaces and challenge democracy.
Topic:
Democracy, Disinformation, Polarization, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

80. Resistance to Authoritarianism: Lessons Learned from Brazilian Civil Society

Author:
Melina Risso, Renata Avelar Gianini, and Camila Nadalini de Godoy
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
This study aims to encourage debate and strengthen democratic organizations and civil society that defend civic space against attempts to weaken the system of checks and balances that sustain democracy, silence dissenting voices and ideas, co-opt law enforcement agencies, and dismantle public policies to consolidate an authoritarian state. It was developed based on a comprehensive literature review, media coverage analysis, and 18 in-depth interviews with key actors involved in the study’s topics, including civil society, funders, and government officials. The work is divided into six parts. The first part presents the definitions used to develop this study and examines the political context. The following four parts analyze four cases encompassing the main tools used by civil society to defend democracy and combat democratic erosion, highlighting the results achieved. The sixth and final part details essential points of attention for maintaining, strengthening, and continuously promoting a robust civic space and a solid democracy in Brazil. As the authoritarian threats to closing the space for civil society participation are still present nationally and internationally, the initiatives cited here are expected to inspire and guide future initiatives of resistance and protection of civic space in promoting democracy.
Topic:
Civil Society, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Civil Resistance
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

81. Europe’s Democracy Catch-22

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The dominant, epoch-making European storyline is now clear: the rise of the far right threatens the European Union (EU)’s future and democracy. This standard view is expressed in countless opinion pieces and political speeches and is now reshaping both national and EU-level politics. Even if the far right did not surge quite as dramatically as widely predicted in either the European Parliament or French parliamentary elections, its growing popularity clearly represents a pressing challenge both at the EU level and in national politics (Ash 2024). However, the continent’s predicament might be more accurately described as a more subtle and complex conundrum: in the immediate short term, what is good for the EU integration project might not be good for democracy, and vice versa. The EU and national governments have been struggling with this democracy catch-22 for several years now, and the election results make it an even sharper challenge. The postelection context has been dominated by the debate over whether to engage or isolate the far right—a debate that has been exhaustively covered and unfolding for many years. Yet, the empirical record suggests that neither engaging with the far right nor ostracizing it has worked especially well. Instead, a third approach might help map a way out of the democracy catch-22: a European democracy pact.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe

82. Mongolia’s Electoral Reform and the State Great Khural (Parliamentary) Elections

Author:
Ganbat Damba and Byambakhand Luguusharav
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Since the transition to a democratic systеm and market economy in the early 1990s, Mongolia has held its 9th parliamentary election. In a historic first, the election held on June 28 was carried out under the new electoral systеm. A total of 78 members of parliament (MPs) were elected from 13 majoritarian districts, with an additional 48 MPs elected through proportional representation in a nationwide constituency (General Election Commission of Mongolia 2024). The new parliament consists of 126 seats, in accordance with the amendments to the Constitution introduced in 2023. The election results demonstrated that the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) secured 68 seats, followed by the Democratic Party (DP) with 42 seats, the HUN Party with 8 seats, and both the National Alliance and the Civil Will-Green Party with 4 seats each. It is noteworthy that the MPP won 50 constituency seats and 18 from the party list, thereby ensuring a majority presence in parliament alongside three other parties that surpassed the legal threshold for representation (Oyunchimeg 2024). This distribution of seats underscores the diversity of representation in parliament, reflecting the electorate’s support for multiple political entities and ensuring a legislative body that is balanced and representative of the political spectrum. Over the past 34 years, various electoral systеms have been employed, including majoritarian voting systеms with single or multiple mandates and mixed systеms that combine majoritarian and proportional representation voting elements. Each systеm has its strengths and weaknesses. However, the criticism from both the public and political parties of the contemporary electoral systеm has resulted in frequent changes to it. Before the new systеm was introduced, the Mongolian parliament had maintained 76 seats since 1990. The number of seats in the parliament was increased by approximately 40 percent, from 76 to 126. Since 1990, Mongolia’s population has grown from 2.15 million to 3.5 million, an increase of about 40 percent. As a representative institution of the people, there has been significant debate in recent years regarding the potential expansion of the parliamentary seats. The proposed increase in seats has prompted a considerable number of individuals to seek election. In the first democratic election held after new democratic Constitution in 1992, only 293 individuals representing 10 parties and independents ran for the parliament. The 2024 Election saw the largest number of candidates to date, with the highest number of candidacies. A total of 372 individuals from 22 parties and coalitions contested the election through party lists, while 969 candidates ran in constituencies, resulting in a total of 1,341 candidates, marking a record high.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Mongolia and Asia

83. Horizontal Accountability Requires More than Legal Checks and Balances Systеm: Ten Asian Country Cases

Author:
Sook Jong Lee
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Most countries, except closed autocracies, conduct popular elections. However, the quality of global democracy has been deteriorating. One of the most significant illiberal trends is the aggrandizement of executive power led by a popularly elected political leader. Strongmen often bend or simply violate democratic rules by abusing their executive power. The electoral mandate gives them legitimacy, making the efforts to check their executive power difficult. In this context, horizontal accountability based on the checks and balances systеm and oversight institutions is important to prevent the emergence of strongmen. However, horizontal accountability cannot function effectively unless its legal mechanisms are implemented in practice. Ten Asian country cases, presented in previously published ADRN working papers, demonstrated that horizontal accountability perform better when the legislature is not politically captured by the executive power and the judiciary is independent. Oversight institutions also require both political independence and institutional capacity. The electoral accountability of elected elites to voters helps the legislative branch to fulfill its role of constraining the excessive executive power. Independent media and civil society participation always assist both electoral and horizontal accountability.
Topic:
Law, Democracy, Accountability, Civic Engagement, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Asia

84. Inside the Summit for Democracy: What’s Next?

Author:
Ken Godfrey and Anthony Smith
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The third iteration of the Summit for Democracy (S4D) in Seoul from March 18 to 20 was an improvement on several elements of previous versions of S4D but still inherited some of the challenges. With this third summit in the rearview mirror, it is a good moment to take stock of the concrete impact of the summit itself and the goals of the S4D process in the future. We argue that the S4D has significant shortcomings but still has added value moving forward if the format can be adjusted in a more pragmatic direction.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, Global South, Cooperation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Asia

85. South Korea’s Official Development Assistance for Democracy Support

Author:
Sook Jong Lee
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
As of 2022, South Korea provides Official Development Assistance (ODA) amounting to 2.79 billion USD, 0.17% of its gross national income, ranking 16th among the donor countries in the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which includes 30 countries. Since joining the DAC in 2010, South Korea’s ODA has been steadily increasing. The successful transition from a recipient to a donor country is a significant achievement globally. However, in the context of South Korea’s high status in liberal democracy, its level of support for democratic governance is relatively low. There is no clear definition of ‘democracy aid,’ but it generally refers to aid used to advocate and support democracy. Given that democracy aid could be perceived as interference in the internal affairs of recipient countries, it is not prominently emphasized in development assistance where poverty alleviation and socio-economic development are the primary goals. The DAC aims to promote development cooperation and related policies, targeting Sustainable Development 2030, which includes inclusive and sustainable economic development, progress in national and international equality, poverty eradication, and improving living conditions in developing countries. It establishes a standard of assistance policy in various fields such as development, trade, industry, environment, gender equality, anti-corruption, and strengthening civil society. In essence, the DAC does not explicitly state that spreading democracy is the purpose of ODA (OECD n.d.). South Korea’s Framework Act on International Development Cooperation also stipulates the purpose of itself to “enhance the appropriateness of policies for international development cooperation and the efficiency of the implementation thereof, and effectively achieve the policy objectives of international development cooperation by providing for basic matters concerning international development cooperation, thus contributing to the co-prosperity of humanity and to world peace.” This law outlines the principles of international development cooperation, such as “respect for all the principles of the Charter of the United Nations; support for the self-help efforts and abilities of developing countries; respect for the necessity of development of developing countries; increase in sharing of development experiences; and mutual harmony with the international community and promotion of cooperation therewith,” but there is no mention of linking ODA to democracy (OECD 2005; Korea Legislation Research Institute n.d.).
Topic:
Development, Democracy, Civil Society Organizations, and OECD
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

86. The Gaza War – Affective Polarization and the Future of Democracy

Author:
Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The terrible terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent War in Gaza have not only affected the Middle East, but they have also had a disruptive impact on Western democracies. Divisions between those who support Israel’s fight against Islamist terrorism and those who the foreground the sufferings of Palestinian civilians have overlapped with deep affective polarization in many societies. The two positions seem to be irreconcilable and leave little to no room for empathy and dialogue. This report highlights a growing overlap between the perception of international conflicts and domestic polarization over identity issues and values.
Topic:
Democracy, Conflict, Polarization, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

87. A battle against time – and against Putin’s Russia

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With Putin’s war against Ukraine about to enter its third year, the EU’s enlargement policy remains at the top of its foreign policy priorities, with the focus being on both Ukraine and Moldova. This is following the European Council’s decision to open accession negotiations with both countries. But where does this leave the countries of the Western Balkans and their very long journey towards the EU which began over 20 years ago? Will these countries’ hopes for much needed political momentum in their accession prospects be fulfilled during 2024, despite the repeated delays and the EU’s failure to respect its commitments to the region over the past few years? With elections taking place across Europe offering fertile ground for Russia to deploy its arsenal of disinformation tactics, time is not on the EU’s side. To counter Russian attempts to influence developments in the region, as well as to reverse the dangerous trend of backsliding in democratic and rule of law reforms, the EU will need to adopt a more robust, consistent and determined approach towards the Western Balkans. Without any further delay, it needs to set out a much needed geopolitical and security direction for its enlargement policies in the Western Balkans.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Rule of Law, Regional Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Balkans

88. Seeing Tunisia’s Civil Society During Un-civil Times

Author:
Larbi Sadiki and Layla Saleh
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Tunisia’s dramatic democratic reversals since July 2021 warrant an in-depth reflection on how and where its once-promising democratisation momentum went wrong. Much attention is given to the top-down demolition of democratic institutions by the country’s (democratically) elected President Kais Saied. However, just as the popular revolution that ousted the dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and the subsequent democratic transition was to a great extent a bottom-up process, so civil society too is an important piece of the de-democratisation puzzle. In a bid to compare and contrast trajectories of degeneration and regeneration, the paper explores the contributions and constraints of Tunisian civil society vis-à-vis Tunisia’s difficult experiment with democratisation.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Democracy, Institutions, and NGOs
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

89. Information Integrity and Information Pollution: Vulnerabilities and Impact on Social Cohesion and Democracy in Mexico

Author:
Anita Breuer
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Equal access to reliable information is essential for democracy and social cohesion. The rise of information pollution, particularly in digital spaces, poses significant challenges to democratic societies worldwide. While extensive research has focused on its impact in developed, English-speaking democracies, there is a gap in understanding its effects in younger democracies, conflict zones, and less developed contexts. This study fills that gap by analysing Mexico as a case study. Based on interviews with Mexican media professionals, public sector officials, academics and human rights defenders, the study provides insights on the root causes of the problem and and strategies to combat information pollution, safeguard democracy, and promote social cohesion, underscoring the urgency of proactive measures both within Mexico and on a global scale in Mexico, information pollution significantly threatens the country's social cohesion and democratic principles. Structural conditions like poverty, inequality, violence, corruption, and media landscape issues enable societal vulnerability to digital information pollution. Factors directly driving information pollution include the exploitation of digital spaces by drug cartels, divisive narratives against marginalised groups, an increasingly media-hostile environment as well as the incumbent government’s post-factual approach to reality and politics. Information pollution has fostered a polarised discours, contributed to eroding trust in traditional media and amplified identity-based societal cleavages. It weakens the deliberative, participatory and liberal dimensions of democracy dimensions by decreasing the quality of public debate, damaging civil society watchdog roles, and reducing government transparency and accountability. Recommendations for Mexico encompass enhancing public resilience to information through civic education and targeted communication campaigns, empowering media capacity, and fortifying an open data culture in the Mexican public sector. Internationally, efforts should address elite-driven information pollution by reinforcing independent accountability institutions and leveraging diplomatic and economic incentives against leaders attacking these institutions.
Topic:
Development, Democracy, Media, Social Cohesion, and Information
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

90. Episode 02: Consistent Partiality: U.S. Foreign Policy on Palestine-Israel

Author:
Sahar Aziz, Peter Beinart, and Sarah Whitson
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Although the Biden administration talks about supporting democracy and human rights, it has maintained unconditional US support for Israel even as human rights organizations label it an apartheid state. What are the political and ideological foundations of America’s hostility to Palestinian freedom? And what would it take to change them? Does the US’s unconditional support for Israel serve America’s national interests? Host Sahar Aziz addresses these questions with Professor Peter Beinart and human rights attorney Sarah Leah Whitson.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, Politics, Democracy, and Ideology
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

91. Foreign Interference Online: Where Disinformation Infringes on Freedom of Thought

Author:
Wesley Wark
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
“Foreign interference targeting democratic societies works not by the classic Orwellian formula of ruthless powers limiting sources of information and knowledge,” Wesley Wark writes, but by “multiplying and amplifying chosen channels of information, and attempting to corrupt the availability of true information in favour of that which is both false and harmful.” At their most intense, disinformation campaigns amount to “cognitive warfare, a hostile attempt to alter thinking.” In a social media–saturated world, these operations find many and diverse channels for disinformation’s spread, which depends on the inculcation of “fearful unknowing” in the targeted, often vulnerable, audience. A campaign’s objectives might be both direct and indirect: an aim to influence electoral outcomes could overlap with a broader goal to undermine confidence in democratic processes. Public attention to the issue of foreign state interference, as recently experienced in Canada and currently the subject of a judicial inquiry, is the first indicator that freedom of thought principles might be in play. Wark suggests ways to counter these campaigns, beginning with government taking the lead in enhancing public understanding of all national security threats, including those posed by disinformation.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Democracy, Internet, Social Media, Disinformation, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Canada and Global Focus

92. New Logics for Governing Human Discourse in the Online Era

Author:
Richard Reisman
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The democratization of access to online media tools is driving a transformation of human discourse that is disrupting freedom of thought. This shift in the flow of thought is being encoded into a global infrastructure dominated by commercial platform companies whose operations co-opt individual, collective and governmental agency. In this policy brief, Richard Reisman argues that attempts to govern these tools are relying on “yesterday’s logic.” The new logic, largely unrecognized, relates to acceleration of word-of-mouth propagation, much like rumouring, putting the listener’s freedom of impression, rather than the speaker’s freedom of expression, at the fore. Reisman writes that governance is needed to restore individual and community agency, which could re-energize the vision of technology as “bicycles for our minds,” enabling individuals and society to flourish and maintain resilience in an increasingly challenging world.
Topic:
Governance, Democracy, Internet, Emerging Technology, and Discourse
Political Geography:
Global Focus

93. Credit Rating Agencies versus the ‘Pink Tide’: Lessons from the Experiences of Brazil and Argentina

Author:
Pedro Lange Machado
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
This paper examines the behaviour of credit rating agencies (CRAs) during the ebbing ‘pink tide’. It claims that the actions of S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch contributed to dismantling left-wing regimes in Latin America, to the benefit of their right-wing competitors. The methodology draws on case studies of Brazil and Argentina, where the governments of Dilma Rousseff and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner were replaced by those of Michel Temer and Mauricio Macri, respectively. The research is based on sovereign ratings, reports and press releases the agencies issued during those transitions, which are analysed in the light of critical theories of their modus operandi and confronted with the political processes unfolding in both countries. This allows us to draw conclusions that are consistent with the presented argument, thereby contributing to advance the research agenda around the CRAs and to shed light on Brazil and Argentina’s recent critical presidential transitions.
Topic:
Democracy, Economy, Credit Rating Agencies, and Pink Tide
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and South America

94. Operationalizing the Chain of Harm: Co-design Workshop Guidance

Author:
Lisa Reppell and Matt Bailey
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
The methodological notes below provide guidance for the implementation of the International Foundation for Electoral System's (IFES's) Chain of Harm to enhance the responsiveness of information integrity programming to the needs and unique circumstances of traditionally marginalized communities. Organizations within the democratic, rights, and governance (DRG) community of practice will be able to consult these notes to replicate, build, and design programming. By following the recommendations outlined in this resource, organizations can plan and execute primary source research on information integrity issues, effectively facilitate program design workshops with relevant local partners, and implement and track new, research-based program interventions. This resource builds on and complements the methodology outlined in IFES's publication, The Chain of Harm: Designing Evidence-based, Locally Led Information Integrity Programming. It begins by describing how to collect the primary research that serves as the foundation of programming through surveys and focus group discussions. Guidance for practitioners to facilitate the Co-design Workshop follows before turning to best practices for program implementation and monitoring and evaluation. As the Chain of Harm centers the perspectives of traditionally marginalized groups, accessibility guidance is included in line with this ethos. This practical use guide is derived from IFES data collected during two pilot implementations of the Chain of Harm in Iraq and Guyana between 2021 and 2023 with support from the U.S. Department of State's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor. In both countries, IFES' Center for Applied Research and Learning implemented the approach in close collaboration with local partners. While these methodological notes may often reference collaborations between international and local partners, a local organization implementing directly may also leverage such an approach.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Information Integrity
Political Geography:
Iraq, Guyana, and United States of America

95. Testing Taiwan’s Democracy

Author:
Dimitar Gueorguiev
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Dimitar D. Gueorguiev, an associate professor of political science at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs and director of Chinese studies at Syracuse University, asserts that “Taiwan’s new government faces rough seas ahead” and with the loss of the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) legislative majority, new President Lai Ching-te “needs to seek compromise with a divided government...”
Topic:
Government, Elections, Democracy, and Lai Ching-te
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Asia

96. The Evasion of Liberal Democracy in the Proxy Warfare Narrative

Author:
Mansoor Moaddel
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Much of the thinking about the current political instability in the Middle East has been shaped by sectarianism and proxy warfare between the Islamic Republic and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is said that the 1979 Iranian Revolution triggered this conflict and pressed on through the mo- bilization of the proxies connected to these regimes. This mobilization was reinforced by the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and the outbreak of the Arab Spring movement in 2011.1 In this narrative, the members of the ordinary public appear as passive bystanders in the making of their country’s future. Considering the current shift in values among the Middle Eastern publics toward secular politics, gender equality, and expressive individualism, this argument tends to obscures the region’s political reality.2 It is true that the ruling mullahs in Iran revived sectarianism. They created the Lebanese Hezbollah in the early 1980s, virtually all the Shia political parties in Iraq before the 2003 invasion, and, more recently, the militant Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah and a militia in Syria to defend the Assad regime. Although Yemeni Ansar Allah, known as the Houthis, belong to a different Shia sect and their raison d’être is a product of recent history, the militant group has lately received extensive aid from the Islamic Republic. Expanding its global influence, Iran also founded Al-Mustafa International University in Qom in 2008. By 2020, the university had 45,000 students and 3,500 teaching staff, ran 50 journals, administered 31 educational institutions, established an online school with 20,000 students from 132 nations, and had produced 40,000 graduates—many of whom served in the Fatemiyoun and Zainebiyon brigades in Syria.3 Moreover, to display its commitment to anti-Western, Islamic supranationalism, every year the regime organized demonstrations against the United States and Israel among Iranian pilgrims during the rites of Hajj in Mecca, Saudi Arabia.4 In 1987, these demonstrations turned deadly as violence broke out between the pilgrims and Saudi security forces during which hundreds were killed.5 In a belligerent response, Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic Republic, called Saudi leadership “bloodthirsty,” “tyrants,” and “American lackeys.”6
Topic:
Sectarianism, Democracy, Rivalry, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

97. Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa: Can the African Union and Regional Organizations Defend and Consolidate Democracy?

Author:
Joshua O. Bolarinwa
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
This research evaluates the contemporary increase in military coups in Africa and analyses the effectiveness of the African Union (AU) and other regional institutions in safeguarding and promoting democratic government following existing frameworks and policies. The African Union’s framework for Unconstitutional Changes of Government (UCG) and its subsequent execution have faced significant problems in response to the recent revival. The African Union has garnered commendation for its stance in opposition to military coups. Nevertheless, it has been noted that the organization has exhibited inadequate engagement and delayed responsiveness in addressing instances of the unconstitutional exercise of power. Numerous historical figu-res have exhibited a proclivity for disregarding established institutions that have played a pivotal role in facilitating their ascent to positions of authority.
Topic:
Democracy, Coup, African Union, Military, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:
Africa

98. Empowering Communities in Kosovo: The Vital Role of Local Government in Advancing Education and Curbing Deviant Behavior

Author:
Islam Hasani and Ferdi Kamberi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Local communities play an essential role in developing and organizing their lives for joint betterment. Local self-government, through local democratic mechanisms, involves the community as part of the public policies, showing the sign of the development of the local democracy. This research aims to analyze the communication and collaboration between the local government and local communities in Kosovo, focusing on their role in the development of education and the reduction of deviant behavior, intending to create a better social environment for the community. The research methodology employed for this paper is as follows: library research, qualitative research, and the analysis of the laws in power related to the topic. There will be field research working with two focus groups belonging to the municipality of Prishtina, considering their ethnic component. General results show that communities are still in the development and organization phase, whereas their participation in the process of public policies is still under the average level. Social audits can be mechanisms for development, organizing the community, and involvement in local government policies.
Topic:
Development, Education, Democracy, Public Policy, Behavior, Empowerment, Communities, and Local Self-Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

99. Russia’s presidential election: Signalling repression and demobilizing opposition

Author:
Margarita Zavadskaya
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Autocrats such as Vladimir Putin use elections strategically to demonstrate their capability to secure the necessary votes. This primarily benefits the regime’s inner circle and rent-seeking elites who rely on Putin’s presidency for their wealth. Although a notable proportion of the Russian population regards the election and Putin’s leadership as legitimate, their support for Russia’s military actions in Ukraine is waning. Only a slim majority backs the continuation of the conflict. Despite the oppressive political environment, opposition initiatives such as “Noon against Putin” manifest ongoing resistance. These actions were reflected in vote tallies abroad, where support for Putin was dramatically lower than in Russia. The post-election period is likely to see the persistence of Russia’s current domestic and foreign policies, with the potential for increased societal and economic tensions. The declining support for the war could further complicate the regime’s efforts to maintain a unified front. This could potentially impact Russia’s global standing and internal stability.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

100. Indonesia’s growing clout: Domestic, regional, and global drivers

Author:
Bart Gaens and Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
While Indonesia still stands out as one of the stronger democracies in Southeast Asia, its democratic credentials remain flawed. Nevertheless, public support for the current administration has remained high thanks to sustained economic growth, welfare measures and large infrastructure projects. Indonesia has continued to bolster its international status through ASEAN, even if its position is one among equals. Within the organization, Jakarta has aimed to play the role of democracy promoter and bridge-builder. While China’s influence in the country has grown, Indonesia has sought a middle ground within the great-power competition, also pursuing partnerships with European countries, Japan, Russia, and the Gulf countries in order to diversify its political and economic relations. This offers opportunities for the EU. However, Europe’s declining image in Indonesia, colonial history and perceived double standards are obstacles to strengthening EU-Indonesia relations. Challenges remain for Indonesia in its quest to become a global player. The country will need to contribute solutions to both regional and global issues, and its hedging game and strategic autonomy in foreign-policy choices may become complicated due to increasing global expectations and responsibilities.
Topic:
Democracy, Geopolitics, Economic Policy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia