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151. Nonviolent Protest Movement in Suweida Continues to Resurrect Calls from the Syrian Revolution

Author:
Ishtar Al Shami
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On December 8, residents of Suweida city and the surrounding areas came out to protest the Assad regime yet again. Days later, as the movement entered its sixteenth week, a long line of protesters appeared in the town of Salkhad in the south of Suweida province. On these streets, waves of protesters chant “the people want the downfall of the regime,” echoing cries of the Arab Spring that has in the past sparked swift military backlash from the Syrian Regime. Syrian opposition flags are common, along with the Druze flag—the community to which the large majority of Suweida’s inhabitants belong. Meanwhile, several residents of Salkhad and nearby Shahbaa city broke into their local Baath party offices to either close down or take documents from an already closed building. These offices joined the fate of other Baath party offices throughout the province that have been shut down in towns including Melh, Arman, al-Qurayya, and Sama al-Bardan. In videos posted to social media, these protesters tore up pictures of Bashar al-Assad in a clear challenge and explicit rejection of the regime’s legitimacy, demanding its departure. In the events of this one week, Syrians following the protests could see a microcosm of the larger Suweida protest movement, now over a hundred days in and with no signs of stopping. Although the peaceful demonstrations in Suweida are no longer in the international spotlight since the outbreak of the Gaza war, the movement is remarkable for its longevity and continued open articulation of so many of the ideas that initially motivated Syrians to take to the streets in 2011, and that the Syrian regime has tried so desperately to repress in the intervening years. These protests are the means through which the demonstrators communicate with the world, and have become a symbol for many Syrians both within the country and outside of it. When they began in mid-August 2023, their unprecedented scope meant that they were almost immediately hailed as a second wave of the Syrian revolution. At the time, many wondered: Will Suweida be the turning point? Will this movement be able to oust the Assad regime and usher in a democratic political process that could make reconstruction possible, allowing the return of refugees and the displaced? While protesters in Suweida have not yet accomplished these admittedly audacious goals, neither have they been silenced or forced into submission in the intervening months. This in itself should be seen as a victory; the Suweida movement has become the longest, most organized, widespread, and participatory movement since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, a mixed-gender civilian movement with broad and influential participation from all segments of Suweida’s society.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Protests, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Suwayda

152. Civil Society in Tunisia: Resetting Western Policy Expectations

Author:
Sabina Henneberg, Amy Hawthorne, and Jean-Louis Romanet Perroux
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 23, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with Sabina Henneberg, Amy Hawthorne, and Jean-Louis Romanet Perroux. Henneberg is the Institute’s Soref Fellow and author of its new study Civil Society in Tunisia: Resetting Expectations. Hawthorne is deputy director for research at the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). Perroux is director of the Tunisia-based North African Policy Initiative. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Civil Society, Reform, Democracy, and Economy
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

153. To Prevent the PA from Unraveling, Address Internal Reform

Author:
Ghaith al-Omari
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last year was one of the bloodiest in the West Bank since the second Palestinian intifada two decades ago, and 2023 is already on track to surpass it. Worse yet, the latest surge of violence comes at a time of exceptional fragility within the Palestinian Authority. Much of this fragility can be attributed to Israeli actions that chip away at the PA’s credibility and effectiveness—a fact driven home by Israel’s deadly February 22 raid in Nablus (see below). Yet the PA’s poor governance and political ossification are key contributors as well, as leaders in Ramallah steadily lose control over parts of the West Bank in a vicious cycle of instability and ever-eroding legitimacy. If this trajectory continues, the PA might even run the risk of unraveling altogether. As the United States seeks diplomatic ways to restore calm and curb escalatory policies on both sides, it should pay closer attention to domestic Palestinian factors that contribute to these damaging trends.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Diplomacy, Reform, Democracy, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

154. Examining U.S. Relations With Authoritarian Countries

Author:
Thomas Carothers and Benjamin Feldman
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Although U.S. President Joe Biden and his senior advisers have cast their foreign policy in terms of a global struggle between democracies and autocracies, they have pursued close relations with various authoritarian regimes in different parts of the world, including recent efforts to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia and Vietnam. Many people in U.S. policy circles debate the wisdom of the administration’s trade-offs between its stated interest in supporting democracy globally versus countervailing interests that lead it to maintain close ties with some autocrats. But these debates are often confined to a few high-profile cases and rarely draw from a broader understanding of the overall landscape of U.S. relations with authoritarian regimes and the trajectory of such relations across recent decades. This paper seeks to provide such an understanding. Instead of justifying or vilifying U.S. efforts to get along with many authoritarian countries, this paper aims to anchor these debates in a stronger understanding of the ongoing realities of U.S. relations with these countries. It begins with an overview of U.S. relations with authoritarian countries from the presidency of Jimmy Carter through that of Donald Trump. This overview highlights the long pattern of a U.S. approach that is sharply divided between antagonistic relations with some autocratic regimes and a warm embrace of others, while noting some changes across administrations caused by evolving geopolitical paradigms and presidents’ differing personal predilections. The paper then draws on in-depth case research of U.S. relations with nearly sixty undemocratic countries—including their bilateral security ties, economic relations, and diplomatic contacts—to classify the relationships into four categories: 1) close partnerships, 2) adversarial relationships, 3) cooperative relations, and 4) cold, though not actively adversarial, relations. Through the analysis of these categories, the paper highlights the drivers and factors that shape the relationships in question. The United States funds democracy-related assistance programs directed at most undemocratic countries, and the paper analyzes the overall patterns of this aid. It examines both official U.S. democracy assistance and assistance from the National Endowment for Democracy, focusing on the differing amounts and types of aid directed toward countries in the four different categories. The paper reaches three overarching conclusions. First, Biden’s policy with regard to authoritarian countries represents, on the whole, more continuity with than change from most previous U.S. presidents, reflecting deep structures of interest that have shaped U.S. relations with these countries for decades. While the number of friendly and cooperative ties the United States maintains with undemocratic countries has remained relatively constant in recent years, the number and intensity of adversarial and cold relations are growing, primarily as a result of the heightened geostrategic competition between the United States and its allies on the one hand and China and Russia and their allies on the other. Second, security issues are the dominant driver of U.S. relations with authoritarian countries—for both positive and negative relations—and span a wide range of security concerns, including competition with China and Russia, terrorism, and regional instability. Economic interests—such as energy investments, critical minerals, arms sales, or ensuring U.S. market access—do play a role in spurring positive U.S. relations with some authoritarian states, but overall are far less important than security concerns. Democracy and human rights, or more specifically, problems with democracy and human rights, also shape U.S. relations with authoritarian countries but in complex and highly varied ways; they are a backburner issue in some cases, while they loom large in others. Third, the trends going forward appear to be mixed. With U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia tensions continuing to escalate, the United States will have more reasons to put aside its concerns about democracy and human rights in some authoritarian countries as it tries to convince them to move closer to its camp. It will also be motivated to turn a cold shoulder to other countries that align themselves with its rivals. Certain economic imperatives, such as the push to de-risk global supply chains and ensure access to critical minerals, will also create new incentives for friendlier ties with some authoritarian countries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

155. Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says

Author:
Rachel Kleinfeld
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The United States feels roiled by polarization, and the philanthropic world is seized with debates about what to do. Some scholars claim that Americans are so polarized they are on the brink of civil war. Other polls suggest that voters agree on plenty of policies and that polarization is an illusion. Some philanthropists call for pluralism and civility, while others lean into activism, believing polarization is a byproduct of change toward a more just world. So, is the United States polarized or not? If it is, what is causing the polarization and what are its consequences? Should polarization be solved or tolerated? This paper is intended to answer these questions. It opens with five facts about polarization in the United States today and what those imply for possible interventions. A literature review follows, organized chronologically to explain the scholarly shift from thinking of polarization as an ideological, policy-based phenomenon to an issue of emotion, as well as the emerging understanding of polarization as both a social phenomenon and a political strategy. This paper is organized as follows.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democracy, Ideology, and Polarization
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

156. How does democracy cause growth?

Author:
Vanessa Boese-Schlosser and Markus Eberhardt
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Recent empirical work has established that ‘democracy causes growth’. In this paper, we determine the underlying institutions which drive this relationship using data from the Varieties of Democracy project. We sketch how incentives and opportunities as well as the distribution of political power shaped by underlying institutions, in combination with the extent of the market, endogenously form an ‘economic blueprint for growth’, which likely differs across countries. We take our model to the data by adopting novel heterogeneous treatment effects estimators, which allow for non-parallel trends and selection into institutional change, and run horse races between underlying institutions. We find that freedom of expression, clean elections, and legislative executive constraints are the foremost drivers of long-run development. Erosion of these institutions, as witnessed recently in many countries, may jeopardise the perpetual growth effect of becoming a liberal democracy we establish for the post-WWII period.
Topic:
Development, Elections, Democracy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

157. Plebiscitarian Origins and Temptations of Liberal Democracy

Author:
Greg Yudin
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The current crisis of representative democracy has been vigorously addressed within political theory over the last decade. Both liberals and the left generally agree that the growing disengagement and estrangement from politics, low trust in representatives, and the rise of right-wing politicians have something to do with the dysfunction of representative democracy. At this point, it is safe to assert that there is an understanding that representative democracy is ailing –– an idea shared by a much wider audience in the liberal-democratic countries. Calls for either reforming the system or abandoning unrealistic hopes are increasingly pressing. What should replace the broken model? Arguably, the most appealing plea is to substitute representative democracy with “direct democracy,” understood as delegating decisions to the popular vote. If elites are corrupt, let the people rule! How this can be done seems pretty obvious, too: let’s take a vote and learn the will of the people! This concept has recently become an important agenda for political parties and movements worldwide and made them successful. Examples include the Five Star Movement in Italy, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s campaign in Ukraine, and the Indignados Movement in Spain. In the United States, an initiative to institute national referenda in the Constitution enjoys considerable support: according to the polls (which are themselves a way to gauge swiftly the popular will), it is consistently approved by 2/3 of Americans.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

158. Morocco Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since the pandemic hit Morocco in March 2020, the country has been facing crises on multiple fronts, including the public health crisis, the economic crisis, inflation, and the historic drought. Internationally, Morocco made several diplomatic gains in the wake of the United States’ recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. In an historic reversal of its previous stance, Spain declared that the Moroccan autonomy plan is “the most serious, realistic and credible” solution to the crisis. Multiple other countries opened consulates in Western Sahara.1 2 Moroccans express a great deal of awareness towards these crises, and many recognize the impacts on their daily lives. Nonetheless, not all Moroccans view the current situation in the country through a similar lens. As opposed to the 2018 fifth wave of Arab Barometer surveys where Moroccans were often divided in their views by age, it appears that the effect of these recent events has been to divide Moroccans by socio-economic status to a greater extent. Often, wealthier and more educated Moroccans have a different outlook on the country than those whose income cannot cover their expenses and those with only a high school education or less. The former have a better outlook on Morocco. They express more economic safety and are less likely to be critical of the current situation in their country. The latter are a bit more skeptical, instead expressing more economic frustration and are more willing to criticize many aspects of life in the North African kingdom.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Discrimination, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

159. Palestine Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
These are the results of the 7th wave of the Arab Barometer in Palestine. Data collection was conducted during the period of 14 and 23 October 2021 in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip. All interviews were conducted face to face among a representative sample of the adult population, 18 years and above. The poll covers a variety of issues such as economic conditions, democracy and governance, satisfaction with government and other public institutions, emigration, religious practices, gender, education, media, coronavirus, and international and regional matters. Findings show that the economic situation and the coronavirus are the top two concerns of the public. When asked about the most important challenges facing Palestine today, the largest percentage selected “the economic situation, such as poverty, unemployment and inflation,” followed by the spread of the coronavirus, financial and administrative corruption, and internal instability and security. It is worth noting that respondents in most of the Arab countries covered by AB 7 selected the economic situation and the coronavirus crisis as the two most important challenges facing their countries. When asked to evaluate the current economic situation in Palestine, the vast majority said it is bad or very bad. When asked to speculate about how the economic situation will be in the next few years, less than a third said it will be much better or somewhat better.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Health, Democracy, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

160. Palestinian Democracy: Examining Barriers to Democratic Transition and How to Overcome Them

Author:
Pal-Think for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The paper examines the obstacles to democracy in Palestine, most notably the Israeli occupation, which has distorted the structures of Palestinian society and its desired state and impeded the elections. In addition, the Palestinian division has also led to the absence of national consensus on the time and manner of holding the elections. The paper also presented internal and external factors obstructing the conduct of democratic transitions in Palestine. The paper concluded with a set of policy proposals to address these obstacles, such as holding local and general elections, turning to the international community to help the Palestinians build their democracy and hold elections, and consolidating the values of democracy through a social and political upbringing in the emerging Palestinian generation.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, Occupation, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

161. Quo Vadis Indonesian Democracy? A Closer Look at Dynastic Politics

Author:
Irine Hiraswari Gayatri
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
While being recognized as a “reluctant global statesman” (Wee 2022), President Joko Widodo is known for his pace in advancing Indonesia’s infrastructure development and his popularity ratings have been high. However, the stability of Indonesian democracy recently faces a threat from the growing symptom of political dynasties, a recurring political feature in Southeast Asia including Indonesia. Political dynasty in Indonesia refers to the phenomenon where political power or political positions are passed down from generation to generation within one family or lineage. Establishing a political dynasty is often considered a political strategy to gain and maintain power. By using family power and influence, politicians can build strong support networks. In theory, political dynasty has both positive and negative connotations. Positive connotations can occur if the generation holding power is proven competent; however, this may happen when the institutional structure, for instance, a political party, is weak. On the other hand, negative connotations arise when the dynastic systеm is used to maintain power within a family without paying attention to leadership quality. Nevertheless, the case in Indonesia involving President Jokowi’s son in the 2024 election as a Vice President candidate has yielded more negative responses. Several fundamental variables could lead to the establishment of political dynasties. One of these reasons is the desire for personal or family power. Furthermore, there are structured collectives formed by mutual consensus and a feeling of cohesion, leading to the emergence of group leaders and participants. This is made possible by a multi-party democratic systеm. Moreover, the collaboration between leaders and businesses requires certain conditions to combine the power of financial resources with the power of political personalities. Ultimately, there is a propensity to “assign onuses” between the government and influential individuals with money, which often results in corruption.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Presidency, and Meritocracy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

162. State of Democracy in Asia and the Pacific: The End of the Decline?

Author:
Michael Runey
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
International IDEA’s annual Global State of Democracy report shows that across every region of the world, democracy has continued to contract, with declines in at least one indicator of democratic performance in half of all countries assessed in the report. But after five consecutive years of more countries experiencing declines in their democratic quality than improvements, the data shows that this trend may have, in Asia and the Pacific, largely paused after five years of steady declines in most indicators. These findings are based on the Global State of Democracy Indices (GSoD Indices), International IDEA’s quantitative dataset of democratic performance launched in 2015 and containing data from 1975 to the present. The indices measure democratic trends at the national, regional and global levels across a broad range of different categories of democracy and include data for 174 countries across the globe, 35 of which are in Asia and the Pacific. In lieu of a single democracy score, the GSoD Indices measure four main categories of democracy – Representation, Rights, Rule of Law, and Participation - which are based on 157 individual indicators from 20 diverse sources: expert surveys, standards-based coding by research groups and analysts, observational data and composite measures. Each of these four measures is comprised of several of the 17 factors, as seen in Figure 1 below. This data show that in every region of the world, democracy has continued to contract, with declines in at least one indicator of democratic performance in half of the countries covered by the GSoD Indices. But it is in Asia and the Pacific where the trend is most ambiguous and least severe. When we look at five and one year statistically significant trends in the data for the region what we see in 2022 is not continued decline but mostly scores plateauing after years of declines.
Topic:
Democracy, Media, Rule of Law, Representation, and Civil Rights
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific

163. Young Asians’ Attitude and Behavior Toward Democracy

Author:
Ganbat Damba and Hansu Park
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
As we approach the second quarter of this century, millennials have firmly established themselves as the mainstream of society. The subsequent generation, often referred to as Generation Z, has taken their initial steps into the workforce. This trend is also evident in the political landscape of democratic countries in Asia. As time passes, the proportion of new generations among voters naturally increases, prompting political parties to consider their demands when formulating election strategies and policies. Several Asian countries underwent democratization during the third wave of democracy in the 1980s and 1990s. This wave allowed the new generations in these countries to embrace democracy as an inherent value and norm. As democracy has progressed towards consolidation, it has not only become “the only game in town” but also “the only game in a lifetime” for the new generations. Furthermore, significant advancements in information and communication technologies have opened up new avenues for accessing information and taking into actions for political change. This has led to a widespread belief that younger citizens are generally more pro-democratic compared to their elders. On the flip side, there are concerns that younger generations are relatively less engaged and apathetic towards politics. These concerns often stem from worrisome indicators such as lower voter turnout and occasionally result in a skeptical outlook on the future of democracy. Therefore, it has been increasingly important to delve into the perspectives of the younger generation on democracy, as well as the factors influencing their attitudes toward politics. This brief article reviews previous research conducted through survey analysis and examine youth participation in the Asian region as a case study.
Topic:
Democracy, Youth, Representation, Political Participation, and Attitudes
Political Geography:
Asia

164. ECOWAS and the management of political transitions in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso: Adopting a three-dimensional approach for stability and sustainable democracy and development

Author:
Mubin Adewumi Bakare
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
According to the Secretary General of the United Nations (UN), Antonio Guterres, 2021 was a year marked by ‘an epidemic’ of coups.1 The Economist noted that 2021 saw more coups than the previous five years combined.2 Scrutinising the data further reveals that the West African region experienced the largest number of military coups, both successful and failed, during 2021 and 2022. There were four successful coups d’état in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso, and failed coup attempts and mutiny in Niger and Guinea Bissau between March 2021 to January 2022. This democratic reversal portends political instability, and its attendant economic consequences for the ECOWAS are concerning considering the developmental agenda of the region.3 The focus of this article is examining measures for strengthening democratic transitions in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso by analysing responses at the national, regional and international levels to ensure rapid restoration of constitutional order. It begins by reviewing the experience of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in supporting democratic transition in the region, while stressing and recognising the interlinkages between defence, development and peacebuilding in laying the foundation for democratisation, peace and sustainable development. The article will advance certain policy prescriptions that entail long-term investments by the international community, and regional and civil society actors in West Africa in the areas of defence, development and peacebuilding, as part of a comprehensive support towards successful democratic transition in the affected countries.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Democracy, Transition, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso

165. The Role of the Judiciary in the Resolution of Intra-Party Conflicts in Lesotho

Author:
Mamello Rakolobe and Hoolo 'Nyane
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Political parties play an integral role in modern democracies and are legitimate platforms of contestation for state power. Despite the vital role that political parties play in democratisation, they are often prone to internal disputes. Their internal processes, such as conferences, elections, decision-making and deployments, are often subject to contestation. Conflicts are inherent in political contestation in general and in political parties, in particular. Hence, political parties have several mechanisms for dispute resolution, one of which is the referral of disputes to the courts of law. The role of the courts in internal political party disputes is a double-edged sword. While a court provides an independent platform for resolving disputes, it lacks reconciliatory attributes. After court intervention, many political parties often break up into smaller parties or experience major defections. This phenomenon is more pronounced in Lesotho than elsewhere. Ever since the return to electoral democracy in 1993, the role of the courts in internal party disputes has increased phenomenally. However, instead of achieving cohesion and internal stability, political parties have experienced splits, exacerbated conflicts or significant defections after the referral of their internal disputes to the courts. This raises the question of whether the courts are the appropriate mechanism for resolving internal political conflicts. This article investigates this question.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Elections, Democracy, Violence, Judiciary, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa and Lesotho

166. Paths to Democratic Resilience in an Era of Backsliding

Author:
Erica Shein, Cassandra Emmons, Kyle Lemargie, and Fernanda Buril
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
Despite some bright spots, the anti-democratic challenges of the day are not fading fast. Investing in democratic resilience is increasingly essential, as autocrats — who governed 72 percent of the global population at the close of 2022 — go to ever greater lengths to preserve and expand their power. Unlike in eras past, contemporary autocrats seek not to replace democracy with a competing ideology but to manipulate the democratic system to achieve their own ends. This paper lays out a detailed approach to building democratic resilience in countries facing democratic erosion, democratic breakdown, and autocratic deepening. Investments in resilience may take different forms: In some cases, we may be able to help a democracy “bounce back” from episodes of backsliding; at other times, we may need to support democracy to enable it to persist in diminished form, reinforce what remains of the democratic architecture, or simply preserve the normative foundation and public demand for democracy for a future opening. The paper offers a framework for choosing interventions that are most likely to succeed based on the relevant backsliding context. With this framework, we seek to shift the question from whether support is feasible or desirable in a backsliding context to how the international community can best support a democracy that is encountering any form of backsliding.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Resilience, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

167. Kleptocracy versus Democracy

Author:
Guido Lanfranchi and Anette Hoffmann
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Throughout Sudan’s history, key security actors have shaped the distribution of power and wealth, effectively consolidating both in the hands of their loyal supporters and business partners. The resulting political economy has outlived the country’s long-term dictator Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted by a popular uprising in 2019, it has obstructed the country’s ensuing transition to democracy, and it continues to undermine present attempts at ending the war. While individuals, alliances and businesses change over time, the mechanisms deployed by these networks to retain and expand power have remained the same. They have created an ecosystem that impedes rather than enabling competition and growth, holding Sudan’s private sector hostage to their own power ambitions. Yet, amidst this history of political instability and repression, a whole parallel, largely informal, economy has existed, and sometimes thrived. Businesses of different sizes and from various sectors have shown resilience and have nevertheless found different ways of operating, creating employment and offering much-needed products and services, even in times of war. While the majority of the pre-war Sudanese private sector was not independent, but rather depended on – and in some cases benefited from – the predatory kleptocracy, a small segment of business owners lacked political connections or decided not to leverage them. During the 2019-2021 transition these entrepreneurs doubled down their efforts, and showed perseverance and innovation to survive and cope. This segment of Sudan’s private sector, rather than the country’s security actors and affiliated businesses, will have to play a critical role in Sudan’s reconstruction after the war. The war that continues to rage in Sudan has a disastrous impact on the economy, and the financial resources required for reconstruction will be immense. To move towards the end of the war and to prepare for reconstruction, this report advocates a two-pronged approach. On the one hand, the predatory securitybusiness networks that have underpinned Sudan’s history of conflict and that sustain the present war must be systematically dismantled, so that they cannot fuel the current war or hijack any post-war transition. On the other hand, and simultaneously, the beleaguered private sector that did not benefit from support under al-Bashir’s rule, needs to be empowered, so that it can survive the war and play a role in the reconstruction. Dismantling Sudan’s security-business networks and empowering its productive private sector are complementary efforts. Together, these efforts can help to break the cycle of inequality and violence, and support Sudan’s transition towards democracy and civilian rule.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Democracy, Kleptocracy, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

168. Ukraine’s political model recast: Assessing new opportunities and risks

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Ukrainian political model is in flux. The war against Russia has eroded the core elements of the old order, in which elections were a focal point of the political contestation and the main mechanism for resolving political conflicts. Oligarchs have lost their critical role in Ukrainian politics. Their impact on the media and the party system has weakened considerably, which is a very positive development for the country’s democratic progress. At the same time, the disappearance of the oligarchs as a quasi-institution facilitates the process of power concentration around President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Office. Given the absence of elections due to martial law, this poses the risk that the new political model might be tailored to the incumbent’s needs to the detriment of the public interest. As the war becomes protracted, societal pressure to reactivate comprehensive reforms in the country, including the fight against corruption, is increasing. This creates certain tensions between the national leaders and the general public. Ostensibly, the incumbent president cannot and will not be able to ignore this demand, especially if it is firmly and consistently supported by Western actors.
Topic:
Democracy, Oligarchy, Domestic Politics, Economic Policy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

169. Youth Political Participation in Africa: Lessons from the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Elections

Author:
Ngwang Roger
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
African youths have long represented a significant constituency for electoral mobilization across the continent. The question of youth political participation in Africa has continued to gain traction over the years, following the increased rate of electoral violence experienced across the continent since the 1990s. It has been argued that youths have been at the center of these violent electoral encounters because of their demographic majority and hopeless and disadvantaged status (Ojok & Acol, 2017). Although the dominant political elite utilizes youths’ underprivileged and demographic dominance to safeguard their interests, some young men and women still utilize their creativity and agency to maneuver through the bottleneck systems created by states and political elites (Honwana, 2012; Mugisha et al., 2016). In contemporary times where Africa is experiencing a burgeoning youth population, youths’ political engagement is becoming increasingly more important than ever before. It has been argued that African youths tend to vote less and express less interest in partisanship than older citizens (Resnick & Casale, 2011). This correlates with the suggestion that young people are less involved in politics in young democratic systems than matured democracies (Freeman, 2013; Gaby, 2016). Youths’ poor manifestation of civic engagement across the African continent is linked to the democratization process plagued with several political, governance, and socio-economic challenges (UNECA, 2017).
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Democracy, Youth, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Africa

170. 2022 Georgia Risk-Limiting Audit Final Report

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Carter Center observed the post-election, risk-limiting audit for the 2022 midterm elections in Georgia. This final report summarizes the Center’s observations, findings, and recommendations.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Risk, and Audit
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Georgia

171. Gobernanza democrática y nueva Constitución de Chile

Author:
Pablo Rubio Apiolaza and Pedro A. Martínez Lillo
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
El presente Documento de Trabajo tiene por objetivo identificar y analizar los elementos más relevantes del Proceso Constitucional de Chile en 2023, tomando en consideración la mejora de la gobernanza democrática. Se aborda un breve contexto histórico y político sobre el último ciclo constituyente en Chile, desde los gobiernos de la Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia hasta el presente año. Luego, se plantea reconocer y analizar los ejes principales del texto de Nueva Constitución que se plebiscitará el 17 de diciembre de 2023, en cuanto a sus contenidos centrales, mostrando sus consensos y disensos en un amplio campo de materias. Más adelante se identifican los principales partidos y sectores influyentes en el proceso constitucional y en el debate político, además de la evolución de la opinión pública. Finalmente, se exploran algunas perspectivas o escenarios futuros sobre la posibilidad de establecer consensos amplios entre las diversas fuerzas políticas chilenas, destacando la eventual presencia de una hegemonía conservadora en el diseño y contenidos de una nueva Constitución.
Topic:
Governance, Democracy, Constitution, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
South America and Chile

172. A Christian Nation? Understanding the Threat of Christian Nationalism to American Democracy and Culture

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
The rising influence of Christian nationalism in some segments of American politics poses a major threat to the health of our democracy. Increasingly, the major battle lines of the culture war are being drawn between a right animated by a Christian nationalist worldview and Americans who embrace the country’s growing racial and religious diversity. This new PRRI/Brookings survey of more than 6,000 Americans takes a closer look at the underpinnings of Christian nationalism, providing new measures to estimate the proportion of Americans who adhere to and reject Christian nationalist ideology. The survey also examines how Christian nationalist views intersect with white identity, anti-Black sentiment, support of patriarchy, antisemitism, anti-Muslim sentiments, anti-immigrant attitudes, authoritarianism, and support for violence. Additionally, the survey explores the influence Christian nationalism has within our two primary political parties and major religious subgroups and what this reveals about the state of American democracy and the health of our society.
Topic:
Religion, Democracy, Survey, and Christian Nationalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

173. Threats to American Democracy Ahead of an Unprecedented Presidential Election

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
In this divided era of American politics, the nation turns its eyes toward an unprecedented presidential election, with two of the oldest leading candidates in history — one of whom is facing federal and state indictments related to efforts to overturn the previous election. The 14th Annual American Values survey, conducted by PRRI in partnership with the Brookings Institution, examines Americans’ attitudes about the leading candidates for president, potential support for third-party candidates, and the issues that define these partisan and cultural fault lines. The survey illuminates Americans’ concerns about the overall direction of the country, the state of the economy and inflation, public education, social connectedness, and the broader health of our democracy. Additionally, the survey highlights attitudes about abortion, gender and LGBTQ issues, immigration, foreign policy, Christian nationalism, and support for QAnon, among other issues.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

174. Keeping up with the Dlaminis: Perceived inequalities and satisfaction with democracy in Africa

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Does perceived inequality shape how satisfied ordinary Africans are with how democracy is functioning in their countries? I use nationally representative Afrobarometer survey data (collected in 2016-2018 in 34 countries, N=45,811) to test whether satisfaction with democracy (SWD) is higher among people who (1) feel that their living conditions are equal to others’ or (2) feel that they are better off than other people. Controlling for both individual- and country-level effects, I show that feeling better off than other people increases satisfaction, and feeling worse off than other people decreases satisfaction, with how democracy is functioning in the respondent’s country. People who feel equal to others are more satisfied than those who feel relatively deprived, but less satisfied than people who say they are better off than others. These results suggest egocentric expectations of the functioning of democracy among ordinary Africans. I demonstrate that these relative assessments are significant and comparable in effect size to widely used predictors of satisfaction with democracy found in the literature, such as economic country-level evaluations, partisanship, and political interest. These results therefore should encourage future research to include individual-level comparative assessments as predictors of SWD. Our results represent the most recent cross-national re-examination of predictors of SWD in Africa. My regression results are widely in line with past empirical research – both in and outside of Africa – and suggest that SWD is primarily shaped by political and economic performance evaluations. This points to the explanatory model of SWD in Africa being relatively stable across time.
Topic:
Development, Democracy, Inequality, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa

175. Thailand on a Difficult Path to Democratic Change

Author:
Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 5 September, the new government of Thailand was sworn in, headed by Srettha Thavisin of the Thai Party (Pheu Thai, PT). This ended the political deadlock that had lasted since the parliamentary elections of 14 May. However, not joining the government coalition of the Move Forward (MF) party, which obtained the best electoral result, and including parties supporting the army may cause social tensions. Partial democratic changes in Thailand may be conducive to, among others, cooperation with the European Union.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

176. Liberia Marks Successful Transfer of Power

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The presidential and parliamentary elections in Liberia were the first since the departure of the UN military mission (UNMIL), which until 2018 ensured security and supported rebuilding the state’s structures after the civil wars of 1989-2003. Despite internal tensions, a wave of military coups, and growing authoritarianism in West Africa, there was a peaceful transfer of power to Joseph Boakai. The example of Liberia gives hope for limiting the democratic regression in the region.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Transfer of Power
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

177. One Year after the Myanmar Coup

Author:
Esther Ze Bamvo, James C. Scott, David Thang Moe, and Lien-Hang T. Nguyen
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Myanmar has been a military country since 1962, but the recent military coup deserves international attention. Since the junta seized power by removing the democratically elected government on February 1, 2021, citizens from all walks of life have risen up in strong resistance to the coup. Religion and ethnicity have played a dividing and exclusionary role in Burmese politics, resulting most tragically in the persecution of the Rohingya. However, the urgent need for solidarity of an anti-coup movement led by youth from “Generation Z” has brought together protesters from different religions and ethnicities. Urban civilians, mostly from ethnic majorities, and ethnic minorities from small towns and the most remote hill villages have bridged their religious and ethnic divides to resist the coup for the common goal of federal democracy. Within one year, military junta has killed almost 1,500, detained almost 12,000, and has displaced millions of civilians. Despite the risks, civilians continue to resist the new order through various everyday and creative forms of movement. This event, marking the anniversary of the coup, will recognize Myanmar’s democratic movement, remember fallen heroes, and reflect on the origins and ongoing movements of interreligious and interethnic resistance to the coup. Three panelists, including a person who co-led the first largest anti-coup protest movement on the frontline, will share their expertise on the origins, stories, strategies, and challenges of resistance to the coup. They will also suggest ways that the international community can support Myanmar’s ongoing democratic movement. This event is sponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by the New York Southeast Asia Network (NYSEAN).
Topic:
Democracy, Protests, Coup, Resistance, and Military
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

178. Government Internet Shutdowns Are Changing. How Should Citizens and Democracies Respond?

Author:
Steven Feldstein
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Governments worldwide continue to deploy internet shutdowns and network disruptions to quell mass protests, forestall election losses, reinforce military coups, or cut off conflict areas from the outside world. Data from the past few years show that incidences of global shutdowns have remained steadily high: 196 documented incidents in 2018, 213 incidents in 2019, and 155 in 2020. The first five months of 2021 recorded fifty shutdown incidents.1 Government-instigated internet shutdowns largely took place in relation to five event types: mass demonstrations, military operations and coups, elections, communal violence and religious holidays, and school exams. As Clément Voule, the United Nations special rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association, pointedly observes: “Shutdowns are lasting longer, becoming harder to detect and targeting particular social media and messaging applications and specific localities and communities.”2 Events in Russia have put a finer point on internet shutdown trends. On March 4, 2022, Roskomnadzor, the Russian internet regulator, announced that it would block Facebook and Twitter and would ban new uploads to TikTok.3 On March 14, it added Instagram to the banned list.4 Russian authorities have also restricted access to a slew of news websites, including the BBC, Deutsche Welle, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and Voice of America. Roskomnadzor claimed these measures were enacted in response to new limits imposed by platforms on Russian propaganda outlets—accusing Facebook of “discrimination.”5 The Kremlin’s crackdown is an ominous signal about where the shutdown struggle is headed in authoritarian countries. Despite these bleak trends, there is a growing international consensus—at least among liberal democracies—that protecting internet access is integrally linked to freedoms of expression and association and forms a crucial part of the global democracy and human rights agenda. This paper picks up on this emerging norm and probes several key questions: What can citizens do to evade authoritarian controls and regain internet access? How can democratic governments support these efforts and push back against governments that shut down and block the internet? The short answer is that there is a multitude of responses available to democracies and civil society organizations to push back against internet blackouts and network disruptions. Democracies can exert meaningful pressure against repressive governments to ease internet blocks, and citizens are able to exercise creative options to circumvent internet controls. The paper walks through different tools available to citizens to evade internet controls. It examines where internet shutdown trends are headed and incentives for particular regimes to adopt new modes of censorship. It then presents a multifaceted strategy for democracies, civil society organizations, and technology developers and companies to counter internet shutdowns.
Topic:
Government, Science and Technology, Democracy, and Internet
Political Geography:
Russia and Global Focus

179. How Inequality and Polarization Interact: America’s Challenges Through a South African Lens

Author:
Brian Levy
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the past decade, toxic interactions between persistent inequality, racial tensions, and political polarization have undercut the promise of South Africa’s so-called rainbow miracle transition from apartheid to democracy. South Africa’s recent history sheds light on the United States’ recent political travails. It illustrates how interactions between inclusion and inequality on the one hand and political ideas and entrepreneurship on the other can fuel positive spirals of hope, economic dynamism, and political legitimacy—but can also trigger vicious, downward spirals of disillusion, anger, and political polarization. South Africa was able to transition from a society structured around racial oppression into a nonracial democracy whose new government promised “a better life for all.” Especially remarkable was the speed with which one set of national ideas appeared to give way to its polar opposite. From a society marked by racial dominance and oppression, there emerged the aspiration to build an inclusive, cooperative social order, underpinned by the principles of equal dignity and shared citizenship. In the initial glow of transition, South Africa’s citizens could hope for a better life for themselves and their children. In time, though, the promise wore thin. It became increasingly evident that the economic deck would continue to be stacked, and that the possibility of upward mobility would remain quite limited. Fueled by massive continuing inequities in wealth, income, and opportunity, South Africans increasingly turned from hope to anger. In the United States, a steady and equitably growing economy and a vibrant civil rights movement had fostered the hope of social and economic inclusion. But that hope turned to anger as the benefits of growth became increasingly skewed from the 1980s onward. In 2019, the U.S. economy was more unequal than it had been since the 1920s. Younger generations could no longer expect that their lives would be better than those of their parents. Such economic adversity and associated status anxiety can trigger a heightened propensity for us-versus-them ways of engaging the world. In both South Africa and the United States, polarization was fueled by divisive political entrepreneurs, and in both countries, these entrepreneurs leveraged inequality in ways that added fuel to the fire. In the 2010s, South Africa went through a new ideational reckoning, in part to correct the view that the transition to democracy had washed the country’s apartheid history clean. But opportunistic political entrepreneurs also pushed an increasingly polarized and re-racialized political discourse and pressure on public institutions, with predictable economic consequences. South Africa’s economy slid into sustained stagnation. Paralleling South Africa, America’s divisive political entrepreneurs also cultivated an us-versus-them divisiveness. However, unlike in South Africa, political entrepreneurs and economic elites in the United States also used divisive rhetoric as a way to persuade voters to embrace inequality-increasing policies that might otherwise not have won support. By the late 2010s, the risks were palpable in both South Africa and the United States of an accelerating breakdown of the norms and institutions that sustain inclusive political settlements. For South Africa, the reversals were not wholly unexpected, given the country’s difficult inheritance—though a recent turn away from angry populism suggests that, paradoxically, the rawness and recency of the anti-apartheid struggle and triumph might perhaps offer some immunization against a further-accelerating a downward spiral. But for the United States, the converse may be true. Increases in inequality since the 1980s, and their attendant social and political consequences, have been largely self-inflicted wounds. Complacency bred of long stability may, for decades, have been lulling the country into political recklessness at the inequality-ethnicity intersection, a recklessness that risks plunging the country into disaster. But this paper’s analysis is not all gloom and doom. South Africa’s escape from the shackles of apartheid teaches that, even in the most unlikely settings, downward spirals of despair and anger can transmute into virtuous spirals of hope. The country’s first fifteen years of democracy also show that, once a commitment to change has taken hold, making the shift to an inclusion-supporting economy is less daunting than it might seem. Reforms that foster “good enough inclusion” can be enough to provide initial momentum, with the changes themselves unfolding over time—and an initial round of change can bring in its wake a variety of positive knock-on effects. But lessons can be overlearned. Mass political mobilization was pivotal to South Africa’s shaking loose the shackles of apartheid—and new calls to the barricades might seem to be the obvious response to current political and governmental dysfunction. However, different times and different challenges call for different responses. In both contemporary South Africa and contemporary America, the frontier challenge is not to overthrow an unjust political order but to renew preexisting formal commitments to the idea that citizenship implies some shared purpose. Renewal of this kind might best be realized not by confrontation but rather by a social movement centered around a vision of shared citizenship, a movement that views cooperation in pursuit of win-win possibilities not as weakness but as the key to the sustainability of thriving, open, and inclusive societies.
Topic:
Governance, Democracy, Inequality, Institutions, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

180. Next-Generation Technology and Electoral Democracy: Understanding the Changing Environment

Author:
Samantha Bradshaw, Kailee Hilt, Eric Jardine, Florian Kerschbaum, Ulrike Klinger, Michael Pal, Aaron Shull, and Wesley Wark
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Democracies around the world are facing growing threats to their electoral systems in the digital age. Foreign interference in the form of dis- and misinformation has already influenced the results of democratic elections and altered the course of history. This special report, the result of a research project conducted in partnership with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Canada, examines these cyberthreats from a Canadian and German perspective. Both Canada and Germany share common goals centred around protecting human rights, democracy and the rule of law, and international peace and security. Using case studies from experts in fields such as computer science, law and public policy, the special report offers recommendations to guide policy makers and stakeholders on how to protect elections from next-generation technologies and the threats they pose to democracy.
Topic:
Environment, Science and Technology, Elections, Democracy, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, Germany, and North America

181. 25 Years After the Peace Accords, Democracy Weak in Guatemala

Author:
Giovanni Batz
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In Guatemala, safeguards against corruption, impunity, and state violence are being dismantled by the politicians, elites, and military and some fear the return of an authoritarian state.
Topic:
Corruption, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and State Violence
Political Geography:
Central America and Guatemala

182. Costa Rica's Rush to the Right

Author:
Andrés León Araya
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
With second round presidential elections on April 3, the country faces high levels of voter abstention, an increasingly right-wing Congress, and a choice between two candidates ringed by controversy.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, Presidential Elections, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
Central America and Costa Rica

183. Disobedient Histories: Descendants of Perpetrators in Argentina Join the Human Rights Movement

Author:
Claire Branigan
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Decades after the return to democracy, the children of dictatorship-era human rights abusers have ignited a new movement for truth, memory, and justice throughout Latin America and beyond.
Topic:
Human Rights, History, Democracy, Memory, Justice, Political Movements, and Perpetrators
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

184. The Venezuelan Opposition’s Elusive Quest for Power

Author:
Maryhen Jiménez and Juan Manuel Trak
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Persistent internal conflicts have prevented Chavismo’s detractors from organizing a serious political proposal to successfully contest power. Can the opposition democratize?
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Opposition
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

185. “I Left Venezuela to Defend the Constitution”: An Interview with Luisa Ortega Díaz

Author:
John Brown
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The former Attorney General discusses how her country has changed since Chávez and what is required to restore democracy.
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, Interview, and Hugo Chavez
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

186. Social Policy Expansion and Retrenchment After Latin America’s Commodity Boom

Author:
Sara Niedzwiecki and Jennifer Pribble
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The literature on social policy expansion and retrenchment in Latin America is vast, but scholars differ in how they explain the outcomes, arriving at different conclusions about the role of democracy, left parties, favorable economic conditions, and social movements in shaping reform. What can welfare state developments since the end of the commodity boom teach us about the theoretical power of these arguments? This paper engages this question, seeking to explain recent incidents of social policy reform in 10 presidential administrations in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. Using a combination of crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis (csQCA) and case studies, we identify multiple paths toward social policy expansion and retrenchment that involve the absence and presence of electoral competition, economic resources, party ideology and linkage mechanism, social movement pressure, international pressure, and legacies. The results show that while both parties of the left and right expanded social programs, only the right engaged in retrenchment, yet partisanship alone is insufficient for explaining reform outcomes, as the variable must appear in combination with other factors depending on the party’s linkage mechanism. The results provide new insight into the politics of social policy reform in Latin America, showing the relevance of complex forms of causality.
Topic:
Health, Poverty, Social Movement, Democracy, Inequality, Public Policy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Uruguay, Latin America, and Chile

187. Aid’s impact on democracy

Author:
Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, Ana Horigoshi, and Rachel M. Gisselquist
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the impact of foreign aid on democratic outcomes using a panel of countries for the period between 1995 and 2018. In so doing, it speaks to a major critique of foreign aid, which is that it negatively impacts democratic governance. The analysis distinguishes between developmental aid and democracy aid, and examines democracy aid to specific sectors, in order to explore variation across different aid types. It draws on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) Creditor Reporting System (CRS) data on foreign aid and indices of democracy from the Varieties of Democracy project, employing a combination of a maximum likelihood estimation and structural equation modelling (ML-SEM) model and fixed effects models. Overall, using a more extensive set of data and methods than previous analyses, we offer comprehensive evidence pointing to aid having a positive if modest impact on democratic outcomes. Our analysis suggests this effect is more significant for democracy aid than developmental aid, but there is no evidence of negative impact for either. These results are robust to multiple specifications.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

188. Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism

Author:
Jonathan Nash
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
In her book, Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism, Anne Applebaum explores a political shift that many democracies face today. In her analysis of global democracies, Applebaum explains why authoritarianism is on the rise and how it is being welcomed by many. She argues that the world is becoming more authoritarian, and democracy is starting to slip, especially with the recent election of US President Donald Trump. Through her writing, Applebaum hopes to bring awareness to this phenomenon with the hope of recognizing it and resisting it. Anne Applebaum is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist, who has worked for several magazines and newspapers. These include The Spectator, The Evening Standard, Slate, The Daily and Sunday Telegraph, The Economist, The Independent, The Washington Post, and currently The Atlantic. Her career provides her with great access to the top decision-making circles both in Europe and the United States during critical times, including the fall of the Berlin Wall, or the Brexit referendum and its aftermath.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Book Review, and Journalism
Political Geography:
Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America

189. The Constitution of India and Indian Democracy: Have the Legislature, Judiciary and Executive Remained True to their Constitutional Mandate?

Author:
Jagdeep Dhankhar
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
Vice President of India, Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar’s speech at the India International Centre on Constitution Day, 26 November 2022. When I look around, I see many whom I know, and many who know me. It is an absolute privilege to be on this impactful platform of the prestigious India International Centre (IIC). It is indeed my honour to address the august audience here on this momentous occasion of Constitution Day, and while we all are in the Amrit Kaal of our Independence. The IIC, of which I became a member in 1990, since its foundation days has been a significant epicentre of deep thoughts, constructive ideation, as also interactions and conversations on issues of national and international importance. There is national and global recognition and appreciation, and very rightly so, of the IIC as a conducive and engaging platform for thinking minds who are ever keen to reflect on momentous issues and those of great contemporaneous relevance. I am grateful to the IIC for enabling me to unfold my thoughts on this day on this platform. Best wishes and greetings to all of you and all the countrymen on Constitution Day. It was on this day in 1949 that Independent India laid the foundation for a new future for itself. Many in the world thought India would not last long. They wrote about it, reflected on it in the public domain. Yet, we have traversed for so long and we are in the 75th year of our Independence, as a shining star on the global horizon. This time Constitution Day is very special on this count also. The completion of 75 years for the mother of democracy, the largest democracy, is indeed a milestone. We can all be proud of it.
Topic:
Government, Democracy, Constitution, Judiciary, Speech, Executive Power, and Legislature
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

190. Clear and president danger: Democracy and the constitution in Tunisia

Author:
Anthony Dworkin
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The new constitution that Tunisia will soon put to a referendum is a fundamental departure from the democratic model the country established after 2011. The process of drafting the constitution excluded any significant political participation or public debate. The new constitution would create an unaccountable presidency and leave other branches of the state without any power. Tunisia’s president has failed to address the country’s serious economic problems. An agreement with the International Monetary Fund will only provide a short-term solution to these problems. European policymakers should make clear that they do not see the constitution as genuinely democratic, while continuing to support Tunisia economically.
Topic:
Democracy, Constitution, Economy, Referendum, and IMF
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Tunisia

191. Byting back: The EU’s digital alliance with Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Carla Hobbs and José I. Torreblanca
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
China’s and Russia’s growing presence in Latin America and the Caribbean undermines democracy and Western influence in the region, along with the international rules-based order. The EU is responding to this threat by attempting to strengthen its relationships with Latin American and Caribbean countries. The bloc is attempting to build on their affinity for European values and rights, as well their preference for sustainable and inclusive development. Cooperation on digital technologies should be a priority in the effort, given the region’s need for greater connectivity. The Spanish presidency of the EU should lead the formation of a Digital Alliance with Latin America and the Caribbean at a summit scheduled for 2023. The EU can make this alliance work by focusing on connectivity investments, cyber-security, and rights to support Latin American countries’ digital transitions. The alliance will also require a long-term vision within the EU, commitments from member states, leadership by several Latin American countries, and public-private investment partnerships.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Alliance, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Latin America

192. Back to barracks: Building democracy after the military coup in Sudan

Author:
Amgad Fareid Eltayeb
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The protest movement that toppled dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 promised a first in post-independence Sudan: democratic government. Although a historic opportunity for Sudan, real democracy threatened Sudanese political and military elites. Regimes formed through agreement between these elites constitute the one constant throughout Sudan’s post-independence period. The gap between the political elites and the protest movement helped the military coup in 2021 entrench their position. Violence, repression, and unrest are widespread – and splits in the broader military camp threaten to spill over into civil war. These splits also precipitate Sudan being drawn into regional conflicts such as in Ethiopia and Chad. The international community and European states have failed to find a viable political pathway to end the coup because they are too focused on working with elites. They need to grasp that both military and civilian elites are responsible for failing to open politics to the people of Sudan. The EU and member states should support pro-democracy actors in Sudan and press for a new political pathway centred on them.
Topic:
Military Affairs, European Union, Democracy, and Coup
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

193. An Economic Defense of Multiple Antitrust Goals: Reversing Income Inequality and Promoting Political Democracy

Author:
Mark Glick
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Two recent papers by prominent antitrust scholars argue that a revived antitrust movement can help reverse the dramatic rise in economic inequality and the erosion of political democracy in the United States. Both papers rely on the legislative history of the key antitrust statutes to support their case. Not surprisingly, their recommendations have been met with alarm in some quarters and with skepticism in others. Such proposals by antitrust reformers are often contrasted with the Consumer Welfare Standard that pervades antitrust policy today. The Consumer Welfare Standard suffers from several defects: (1) It employs a narrow, unworkable measure of welfare; (2) It excludes important sources of welfare based on the assumption that antitrust seeks only to maximize wealth; (3) It assumes a constant and equal individual marginal utility of money; and (4) It is often combined with extraneous ideological goals. Even with these defects, however, if applied consistent with its theoretical underpinnings, the consideration of the transfer of labor rents resulting from a merger or dominant firm conduct is supported by the Consumer Welfare Standard. Moreover, even when only consumers (and not producers) are deemed relevant, the welfare of labor still should consistently be considered part of consumer welfare. In contrast, fostering political democracy—a prominent traditional antitrust goal that was jettisoned by the Chicago School—falls outside the Consumer Welfare Standard in any of its constructs. To undergird such important broader goals requires that the Consumer Welfare Standard be replaced with the General Welfare Standard. The General Welfare Standard consists of modern welfare economics modified to accommodate objective analyses of human welfare and purged of inconsistencies.
Topic:
Economics, Democracy, Income Inequality, and Antitrust Law
Political Geography:
Global Focus

194. At the End of Its Tether: U.S. Grand Strategy of Advancing Democracy

Author:
David C. Hendrickson
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
Over the past several decades, the United States has made the advance of democracy its great purpose in foreign policy. The Biden administration’s rhetoric about a global struggle between autocracy and democracy is the old habit in new form. U.S. leaders market this goal as consonant with the U.S. liberal tradition, but it in fact offends the nation’s founding ethos, especially in relegating state sovereignty and national independence to secondary status. In the older teaching, accepted even by liberal internationalists like President Woodrow Wilson and President Franklin Roosevelt, free institutions were to expand by example, not by force. After the Cold War, U.S. efforts to push states into becoming democracies by instruction, war, and sanctions have been an abject failure, in large part because they offended against the principle of national independence. Defining U.S. efforts today as the defense of democracy obscures vital problems in the U.S. alliance system, including its expansionist tendencies, its unfair sharing of burdens, and the risks it poses of a major war that would be detrimental to U.S. security. The U.S. should reject the revolutionary policy of regime change and return to the respect for national independence once embedded in the U.S. diplomatic tradition. Overturning autocratic governments is an aim that is antithetical to peace, the most favorable environment for the growth of liberal democracy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Cold War, Democracy, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

195. The EU Green Deal. A new momentum for democratic governance in the MENA region?

Author:
Dina Fakoussa
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Dysfunctional governance and repression lie at the heart of social, economic and political challenges and crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The nature of governance, whether autocratic, corrupt, crony capitalist, highly centralised, patriarchal and/or merely incompetent, led to alarming socioeconomic and political grievances. These grievances accumulated over decades sparking region- wide protests in 2010, 2011 and subsequent years. Without major improvements in the quality of democratic governance,1 further crises are inevitable, and sustainable stability will remain unattainable, with major negative repercussions for the European Union (EU) itself. Naturally, climate change is augmenting these challenges and increasing the pressure on government performance. The EU Green Deal addresses this uniquely urgent matter in need of assertiveness, namely climate change with its worldwide palpable repercussions and impact for all. The deal has serious implications for economies and hence societies in MENA countries. At the same time, it could and must serve as a vehicle for improved democratic governance in the region. This is also in the interests of the EU’s green ambitions, as lasting environmentally sound and socially just policies in countries beyond the EU will hardly materialise without improvements in the area of democratic governance. The two subject areas are mutually dependent; hence, the durable success of climate policies is unlikely without being buttressed by democratic components. This understanding needs to be mirrored in all EU policies and programmes targeting the region by interweaving climate policies with democratic governance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, European Union, Democracy, Repression, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

196. Democratic Backsliding in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Hudson Institute
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
A negative trend of democratic recession has steadily unfolded across the Indo-Pacific region since the 2010s. Subregionally, Southeast Asia has suffered from the most severe drop in democracy scores, while East Asia and South Asia have experienced a moderate decrease. Oceania remains the most democratic subregion and has achieved a slight increase in its democracy scores. There has been a remarkable shift of balance from democratic advancement to democratic backsliding in the Indo-Pacific. In the three years from 2019 to 2021, the percentage of political regimes experiencing democratic backsliding surpassed those making democratic advancement. Evidence also shows that democratic recession is much more pronounced in populous societies than in sparsely populated societies. Overall, both the number and percentage of people living under autocratic-leaning regimes and autocratic regimes have reached record high levels. Democratic recession in the Indo-Pacific is caused by the coupling of domestic and geopolitical forces. Domestically, democratic recession has principally been driven by deep-rooted cleavages inherent within the countries and territories where illiberal strongmen, including populist leaders, army generals, and nationalist state leaders, exploit such cleavages to reinforce their repression of democracy. Geopolitically, under a multipolar Indo-Pacific, illiberal powers including China and Russia are expanding their spheres of influence by providing support to illiberal strongmen across the region. Traditionally, “democracy” and “security” are seen as two separate fields in the policy world. The major findings of this report, which documents the coupling of domestic and geopolitical forces in causing democratic recession across the Indo-Pacific, raises questions on the validity of the conventional thought pertaining to democracy promotion and security competition. Today, the Indo-Pacific region presents the free world with a double-challenge of democratic recession and security competition, indicating that it’s the time to tear down the longstanding artificial wall between democracy and security. There is an urgent need to invest in new knowledge infrastructures that can provide integrated strategic analysis to policymakers and practitioners.  
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Indo-Pacific

197. Iraq’s state of democracy: A self-perpetuating cycle against reform in favour of the political elite

Author:
Mariette Hagglund
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
In addition to Afghanistan, Iraq has been one of the US’s major state-building projects in the 21st century. The recent events in Afghanistan have again highlighted criticism against large-scale interventions. The changes in Iraq’s electoral law have brought about some positive changes, but did not address the root causes of the problems in the political system. Institutions in Iraq are weak and marred by politicization and pressure from powerful parties. Hence, their independence is highly questionable. While improving democracy in Iraq would require radical change, taking minor steps forward remains a more attractive and doable option for the Iraqi and international leadership. However, by working with established political players, the very barriers to more significant reform are simultaneously being strengthened.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Elites, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

198. Southeast Asian democracy: Democratic regression or autocratic hardening?

Author:
Bart Gaens and Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
In line with a global trend, Southeast Asia faces an overall decline in levels of democracy, raising the question of whether democratic progress in the region has reached its limits. Most member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have not seen a “wave of democratization” after a long period of authoritarianism and suppression. Instead, the region has been characterized by remarkably resilient “flawed” democracies and relatively stable autocratic regimes, in some cases in spite of strong economic growth and social development. Democracy, or rather autocracy with some democratic elements, has been ebbing and flowing. Most Southeast Asian flawed democracies and autocracies alike are engaged in the politics of hedging, seeking cooperation with multiple partners. These include authoritarian China, which is not interested in the political systems of the countries it deals with, but also the US, the EU and Japan. Pragmatism is inherent in the way ASEAN polities are managed. As long as living conditions improve or at least remain stable, there is little appetite for Western-style democracy that places participatory politics and human rights at the centre of societal development.
Topic:
Governance, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

199. Democratic-values against authoritarianism? In the end it will be [again] the economy, stupid!

Author:
Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Opposition parties around the world (e.g., in Hungary, Poland, Brazil and Turkey) have started to form alliances against authoritarian and illiberal leaders. The introduction of a presidential system in Turkey in 2018 made political parties join forces, since 50+1% would be needed to win the presidential elections. Since May 2018, first four and now six opposition parties have formed the so-called “Millet [Nation] Alliance”; almost all the polls place the Alliance well ahead of the government AKP-MHP alliance. In 2019, Millet Alliance candidates were able to win the municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara. In May 2022, the Millet Alliance published ten clear, value-based principles, ranging from non-discrimination to freedom of the press, religion and thought through to the independence of the judiciary. The parties of the Millet Alliance are not remembered for defending democratic values in the past, but will they now? On topics like the Kurdish issue or refugees, the Millet Alliance is often harsher and more exclusionary than the government. However, the economic situation and the candidate put forward by the Millet Alliance More will be more decisive for the elections than a debate over values. Turkey does not have a choice between black and white, but rather between different shades of gray
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Economy, Domestic Politics, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

200. Media and Democratic Backsliding – Lessons from the Turkish Case

Author:
Eylem Yanardağoğlu
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
There has been a global trend towards democratic backsliding in various new and established democracies across the world since the 2010s. The Freedom House Freedom in the World report for 2022 noted that there have now been 15 consecutive years of decline in global freedom and that the long democratic recession is deepening. In Turkey, the AKP came to power in 2002 at a time marked by a relatively pro-European Union and pluralistic outlook in politics. The democratic backsliding in Turkey has been more obvious since 2007 and the start of the AKP’s second term in power. It deepened especially after the 2016 coup attempt and the transition to a presidential system in 2017. This democratic regression has also impacted on the media sector globally, especially through various coercive and non-coercive media capture strategies. Media concentration has been ongoing in many countries for many decades with a concomitant negative impact on media freedom, leading to a gradual decline in free and independent media. Current forms of media capture are considered more impactful than earlier methods, due to the rise of business structures that operate in tandem with state authorities to capture media outlets. In Turkey, and across those countries in which media capture is prevalent, the mainstream media is vanishing as a result of polarization; two distinct journalisms are emerging in their place, one of which is based on a propaganda model and erodes media and press freedom.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, AKP, Polarization, Freedom of Press, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East