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101. The Jeju 4.3 Attacks Were Not a Democracy Movement

Author:
Tara O
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
On April 3, 1948, on the Korean island of Jeju, communist guerrillas went on a rampage, killing police officers, election workers, and others; setting houses on fire; and terrorizing villagers, all to discourage them from voting in the upcoming May 10 elections that would establish the Republic of Korea (ROK). The insurgency—referred to as Jeju 4.3—triggered a government counterinsurgency, forcing the communists into the mountains where they would continue their guerrilla operations for nine more years. In March 2023, the Democratic Party of Korea (Deobureo Minju Party) introduced a bill mandating that citizens refer to the insurgency only as a “democracy struggle,” with punishments of up to five years in prison. But historical documents, eyewitness testimony, and statements from the perpetrators show that the incident was a campaign of irregular and unconventional warfare, a prelude to the communist military invasion of South Korea in June 1950, and part of the larger Korean War.
Topic:
History, Counterinsurgency, Democracy, and Korean War
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

102. Autumn of the patriarch: How to help Tunisians defend their democracy

Author:
Tarek Megerisi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Recent arrests and protests in Tunisia are a sign of growing instability in the country and panic in the government over waning public support. President Kais Saied seized full power more than 18 months ago but he has spent his time embedding autocracy through constitutional reform rather than attending to Tunisia’s economic and social problems. The president’s indecisive and reclusive nature leaves Tunisia in economic limbo as he fails to show the leadership required, including to give confidence to international partners and financial institutions. Europeans have invested heavily in Tunisia. As the US contemplates disengaging from the country, the EU and its partners must assemble a ‘coalition of the concerned’ to put in place the support structures Tunisia will need to withstand Saied’s inevitable crash.
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, Instability, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

103. Democratic defence: How Italy can lead the fight against Russian disinformation

Author:
Gabriele Carrer, Teresa Coratella, and Silvia Samorè
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
New research for ECFR suggests pro-Russia and pro-China narratives are present in online and traditional forms of discourse in Italy. It finds that forms of anomalous activity spiked just ahead of the country’s 2022 general election. Despite the shock to Italian foreign policy caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine, economic ties between the countries remain. Moreover, the political environment in Italy remains conducive to Russian influence, with the leaders of four of the five largest parties in parliament prone to echoing talking points favourable to Moscow or advocating for “peace” while suggesting the withdrawal of military support to Ukraine. Italy has been slow to put in place the structures needed to combat foreign influence. The new governing coalition appeared to place little value on tackling the problem, but it has now started to build on the more considerable progress made under former prime minister Mario Draghi. Italy should seize opportunities to strengthen the battle against disinformation, such as: encouraging the next European Commission to incorporate this task into its mandate; and placing the topic in Rome’s forthcoming G7 presidency programme.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democracy, Disinformation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy

104. Los retos de Honduras en materia de inseguridad. El dilema de Xiomara Castro ante el populismo punitivo y de la seguridad.

Author:
Javier Lozano Cobos
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La militarización y el combate como herramienta casi exclusiva contra la violencia y la inseguridad ha sido el paradigma de profundo calado en Honduras y la mayor parte de la región, lo que implica la solución a los problemas de inseguridad en clave de guerra. Este conflicto asimétrico entre los grupos criminales y los Estados se recrudeció a raíz de la Guerra contra las Drogas iniciada por el presidente mexicano Calderón, y no es sino la continuación de las diversas guerras contra ya ensayadas en Centroamérica bajo inspiración de los EEUU. Con la llegada al poder de la presidenta hondureña, Xiomara Castro, se advertía un cambio en relación a las políticas de seguridad que no se enfocaran exclusivamente en la mano dura, sino que abordara la reforma integral del Estado priorizando la lucha contra la corrupción y la impunidad, así como la mejora de la calidad de la democracia. Una ola de populismo punitivo recorre la región, pero la mejora en los niveles de inseguridad en Honduras no será sostenible mediante el uso exclusivo de la fuerza ni estados de excepción.
Topic:
Corruption, Human Rights, War on Drugs, Democracy, Geopolitics, Inequality, Populism, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Latin America, Honduras, and United States of America

105. Political Communication in (Post)Conflict Societies. The case of Kosovo

Author:
Avdyl Gashi and Samila Amanyraoufpoor
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Political communication is important in the development of political, social and historical processes of a country. Communication is perhaps a powerful tool that politicians have in their hands. They use it to fight political opponents, and to persuade the masses. This article will address the importance of political communication in post-conflict societies, with a focus on Kosovo society. Political communication and media are crucial for peacebuilding, democracy, and conflict resolution, especially in Kosovo, where emotional and harsh nationalist communication hinders socio-political transformation of deep-rooted conflicts. In this article, authors try to examine the correlation of hatespeech and violence in Kosovo. The results conclude that there is a positive correlation between hatespeech and violence. Without free and independent media, political communication will not be able to free itself from the past that has plagued it for decades.
Topic:
Politics, Communications, Democracy, Peace, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

106. Democracy under Threat: How the Personalization of Political Parties Undermines Democracy

Author:
Erica Frantz, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Joseph Wright, Jia Li, Carisa Nietsche, Nicholas Lokker, and Nicolas Rice
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
In 1998, Viktor Orbán was elected the prime minister of Hungary in free and fair elections. He was supported by the Fidesz party—a movement he founded in 1988 that became a political party in 1990. After losing reelection in 2002, Orbán returned to the prime ministership in 2010 having internalized the lesson that surviving in Hungarian politics “requires strong leadership and absolute control over the party.”1 From 2002 to 2010, Orbán increased his influence within Fidesz, including by changing the party constitution to give himself control of the selection of local party leaders, all parliamentary candidates, and the leader of the party’s parliamentary group. Orbán’s increasing influence within the party paved the way for his efforts over the next decade to remove checks on his power. His control over the party, along with Fidesz’s constitutional majority, enabled Orbán to change Hungary’s constitution in ways that weakened executive constraints, including from the Constitutional Court, the election commission, independent media, and civil society. Orbán’s disproportionate power within the political system allowed him to dismantle democracy in the years that followed, pushing Hungary into authoritarianism. This pattern of democratic decay is not unique to Hungary. Freedom House reports that democracy has been in decline for the last 16 consecutive years, with much of the deterioration occurring in countries classified as democracies.2 In some instances these declines left democracy compromised but intact (as in Poland). In other cases, the declines gave way to the onset of authoritarianism (as in Serbia). Importantly, along with the decline in democracy, there has been a clear change in the way that democracies are breaking down.3 Before 2000, coups were the primary way that democracies failed. Since 2000, however, incumbent takeovers—or the ability of democratically elected leaders to dismantle democracy from within—have grown more prevalent. In the 2010s, 64 percent of the democracies that broke down did so due to incumbent power grabs, while only 36 percent of those that collapsed did so because of a coup.4 Simply put, the greatest threat to democracy now comes from democratically elected leaders.
Topic:
Democracy, Political Parties, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

107. A Strategy for US Public Diplomacy in the Age of Disinformation

Author:
Bret Schafer, Rachael Dean Wilson, and Jessica Brandt
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
“Would you rather have the bitter truth or more sweet lies?” This is the question posed by an assertive series of videos produced by the State Department in recent months, targeting Russian audiences, that juxtapose statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin with evidence that he is lying about the course of the war in Ukraine. DOWNLOAD PDF The effort, alongside revelations laid bare by Washington and its allies at the start of the war, reflects a new understanding: that the information domain is perhaps the most consequential terrain that Putin is contesting and that it is an essential theater of the broader, emerging, persistent, asymmetric competition between liberal democracies and their authoritarian challengers. As part of this competition, autocrats—in Moscow and Beijing, but also elsewhere—have leveraged multiple asymmetries. Both Russia and China operate vast propaganda networks that use multiple modes of communication—from state media websites to popular social media accounts to leading search engines—to disseminate their preferred, often slanted, versions of events. Both have spread multiple, sometimes conflicting, conspiracy theories designed to deflect blame for their own malfeasance, undermine the soft power of the United States, and erode the idea that there is such a thing as objective truth. Both also deploy proxy influencers to agitate anti-American sentiment and frequently engage in “whataboutism” to cast US policy as hypocritical to audiences around the world. Some of this content is targeted at broad swaths of the public within Western societies—in Russia’s case with the goal of polarizing them, and in so doing, weakening Europe and the United States from within. Other content is targeted at the global south, with the goal of eroding popular support for Western policies and, in China’s case, promoting alternatives to the Western model. For the United States, like other democracies, an open information environment confers enormous long-term advantages, but it also creates vulnerabilities that can be exploited using low-cost tools and tactics, often with plausible deniability. Where democracies depend on the idea that the truth is knowable and citizens can discern it to govern themselves, autocracies have no such need for a vibrant, open, trusted information environment. In fact, autocrats benefit from widespread public skepticism in the notion of objective truth. Because autocratic regimes tightly control their own information environments, they are more insulated from criticism than democratic ones. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping effectively ban many Western social media platforms from operating within their borders in order to close space for dissent, all the while using them quite effectively to target audiences abroad. In doing so, unlike their democratic competitors, autocrats face few normative constraints on lying—a dynamic they freely exploit. As a result, autocrats have made remarkable advances in the contest that is now underway in the information domain. To push back on these advances, the United States should leverage its own asymmetric advantages—including its economic might, cyber capabilities, soft power, and the legitimacy that comes from democratic governance—recognizing that successful competitors play to their strengths. A focal point of US strategy should be to harness truthful information to contest the information domain, recognizing that competition in this realm is ongoing and there is a first mover advantage to setting the terms of the debate. Such an approach should entail simultaneously highlighting the strengths of liberal democracies (such as their openness to new information and ability to course correct, innovate, and improve) and the failures and false promises of authoritarian regimes (like kleptocracy and repression). It must do so not just to reach those who live in closed spaces, such as Russia and China, but to reach those who live in countries that are backsliding or where democracy is not fully consolidated. This paper—which is based on conversations with more than a dozen subject-matter experts, including current and former diplomats—offers recommendations for updating US public diplomacy to compete successfully with Russia and China. The focus, however, is limited to US international broadcasting and strategic communication activities and does not include recommendations to improve other elements of US public diplomacy, including but not limited to cultural diplomacy and people-to-people exchanges. The authors recognize that public diplomacy is not merely about crafting a winning message and that an effective US approach must include activities that lie outside of the information domain. This paper should therefore be viewed as an attempt at improving a piece of, but not the whole, public diplomacy puzzle.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democracy, Media, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

108. Assessing the Risk of Foreign Influence in UK Search Results

Author:
Bret Schafer and Peter Benzoni
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
As the de facto gateway to the vast troves of information available online, search services play a critical role in the modern information ecosystem. They are often the starting points for people’s questions about the world around them, from the innocuous to the deeply consequential. The results generated by search algorithms can therefore influence everything from consumer behavior to people’s political and social preferences, often in ways that are imperceptible to users of those systems. Given this significant power, search services are also targets of those who seek to manipulate information to advance a particular, and at times malign, agenda. This includes those working for or on behalf of autocratic foreign governments, who can attempt to leverage search results to whitewash human rights abuses, attack opponents, or interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. The threat is particularly acute with well-resourced states that operate global state-backed media outlets, troll farms, and other state-aligned information outlets that allow them to exploit search services through strategic content production, search engine optimization, or intentional manipulation. DOWNLOAD PDF To evaluate this potential risk, we analyzed data over a 30-day period across six search products on four search services (Google Search, Google News, Microsoft Bing, Bing News, Yandex Search, and Baidu Search) to assess the prominence of foreign state-linked websites, or those that reproduce content from those websites, in search returns for queries related to topics of national importance to the United Kingdom. Importantly, we could not assess, nor was it our intention to assess, whether the prominence of any state-linked sources in search results was the result of deliberate manipulation by those states or merely the product of search algorithms determining that the content produced by those sites was relevant to a given query. We also did not assess the relative quality of any individual state media outlets. We recognize that state-backed information sources exist on a broad spectrum in terms of their authoritativeness and journalistic standards, and that a connection to a foreign state is not necessarily problematic and should not be viewed by search services as an inherent risk. In short, our efforts to understand the prominence of state-linked sources in search results should not be viewed as an attempt to document wrongdoing, either by the sources themselves or by the search services that surfaced those sources. In addition, although we attempted to select topics that were important to UK interests instead of those that favored the interests of any one foreign government, some of the chosen queries—notably those related to the war against Ukraine—were more likely to be the focus of messaging from certain countries. Results from this study should therefore not be used as comparative data points to suggest that any one state is more influential in UK search results than any other. Instead, the goal of this research was simply to gain a better understanding of how and how often content from websites with direct or indirect links to foreign states—primarily state-backed media outlets but also websites directly or indirectly linked to foreign governments or foreign intelligence services—surfaced in search results in the four constituent countries of the UK. Though we offer several illustrative examples highlighting specific vulnerabilities uncovered by our research, the bulk of this report is focused on assessing a potential risk of foreign interference by identifying the types of variables—from the topic searched for to the language used—that regularly generated search results from state-linked websites, without assessing whether the content of those search results is potentially illegal under the UK’s newly created Foreign Interference Offense included in the National Security Act 2023. We did, however, pay particular attention to the presence of content produced by media outlets currently sanctioned by the UK government, namely Russian state media outlets that were sanctioned after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Media, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

109. Red Lines Around a Free and Fair Polish Election

Author:
Josh Rudolph, Anna Wójcik, and Ayleen Cameron
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The October 15, 2023 Polish parliamentary election will not be fair. The country’s last fair election was in 2015, when the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) came to power and promptly set about undermining constitutional governance. Since then, the weakness of Poland’s rule-of-law system has enabled PiS to amend electoral law, reshape the media environment, exploit state-owned companies and other resources—including public funds—and engage in other autocratic subversions to tilt the playing field in Polish elections in favor of the ruling regime. However, the degree of unfairness in this election will hinge on actions taken by Polish authorities. The authorities should: Stop diverting state resources into media enterprises and political messaging campaigns meant to support PiS candidates, Commit to renewing the licenses of independent media outlets such as TVN, Stop using arbitrary fines to harass and weaken independent media outlets, Stop using the system for disciplining judges as a weapon against those who do not display loyalty to the PiS regime, Implement judgments of European tribunals, and ensure that rulings on the integrity of the election come from independent and impartial bodies. While the US government has struck the right tone in recent values-based remarks about the importance of electoral fairness, the message has not broken through a policy environment that is crowded on two levels. Most importantly, many experts and officials in Warsaw believe that the United States is reluctant to pressure its strongest ally in supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia—the Polish government—on matters of electoral fairness. But even if the United States is genuinely committed to pressing for electoral fairness in Poland, there are so many areas of democratic backsliding in the country that it is not clear which concrete threats are priorities for the United States. At every available opportunity, Poland’s allies should publicly reiterate the importance of respecting shared democratic values by holding fair elections. Privately, diplomats should warn Warsaw that crossing red lines around the four most consequential risks to the integrity of the upcoming Polish election would trigger unified public rebukes from NATO allies.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

110. Transatlantic Trends 2023: Public Opinion in a Shifting Global Order

Author:
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Martin Quencez, and Gusine Weber
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Transatlantic Trends 2023 presents the results of representative surveys conducted in 14 countries on both sides of the Atlantic: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Divided into five chapters, this report assesses public opinion on contemporary structural issues impacting the world order, transatlantic relations, security and defense, China, and global challenges.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, France, Poland, Germany, Global Focus, and United States of America

111. The Return of History: Countering the Decline of Democracy in Europe

Author:
Stuart Austin
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This article summarises discussion held at the Ratiu Dialogues on Democracy conference, held in Cluj (Romania) on 15-16 June 2023. Contributors to the discussion were: Dr Radu Albu-Comanescu, Prof Christopher Coker, Dr Adrian-Gabriel Corpadean, Prof Sumantra Bose, Prof Christopher Dandeker, Prof Michael Burleigh, Dr Mois Faion, Dr Marcin Fatalski, Dr Alexander Gerganov, Maja Kurilić, Prof Dominic Lieven, John Lloyd, Bálint Magyar, Prof Slobodan Markovich, Dr Oana-Cristina Popa, Wojciech Przybylski, Richard Ralph CMG CVO, Nicolae Ratiu, Emilia Șercan, Louisa Slavkova, and Dr Eric Weaver
Topic:
Democracy, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Europe

112. Türkiye’s First 100 Years

Author:
W. Robert Pearson
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Modern Türkiye (the official spelling of Turkey since 2021) sprang like a phoenix from the ashes in 1923, overcoming daunting odds. Its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, had foolishly joined the war with the Central Powers in 1914 and naively thought its Arab subjects would remain loyal, only to have been utterly defeated and then dismembered. A rebellion led by the empire’s most famous war hero and leader, Kemal Ataturk, overthrew the last sultan, rejected an unjust treaty to divide up the country and repelled the occupying Allies. He established a contemporary republic based on popular will and modern law to begin a new history for the Turkish people. Born from the wreckage of war and national chaos, Türkiye now, one hundred years on, has become a formidable player on the global stage. World War One witnessed four empires – the German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian, and Ottoman – disappear from history. Of the four, the Turks were the most severely treated by the European victors. Little of Germany and none of the Austro-Hungarian states were occupied. Türkiye was. The country also was originally forecast to become a League of Nations mandate, losing its sovereignty, a punishment not assessed against any other Central Power. Türkiye’s victory at the negotiating table in the early 1920’s over the European Allied Powers and on the battlefield principally against the Greeks, who were encouraged by the British to invade Türkiye to recover territories, was a singular achievement. The final agreement – the Treaty of Lausanne – gave Türkiye its complete independence on October 29, 1923, with Mustafa Kemal as its first president. It was the only such treaty negotiated by a WWI Central Power state with the Allies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Religion, History, Democracy, Economy, Kurds, Ottoman Empire, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

113. Family Rule in Iraq and the Challenge to State and Democracy

Author:
Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
After the fall of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship in 2003, Iraqi political parties proliferated in a show of enthusiasm for the country’s emerging democracy. In recent years, however, a handful of personalities and families have consumed all of the country’s political oxygen, dashing hopes for a truly pluralistic ecosystem. Especially discouraging has been the authoritarian shift in Kurdistan, once viewed as a democratic beacon in the Middle East. At the federal level, feuding between the Sadr and Maliki camps now dominates Shia politics, and Mohammed al-Halbousi has crowded out other Sunni players. Meanwhile, corruption touches every surface, and the rare official who holds to ethical standards risks being rendered entirely ineffectual. In this wide-ranging Policy Note, experts Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab outline the dispiriting state of Iraqi politics and how the United States can respond. To achieve the scaled-down goals of maintaining sovereignty and accountability, they argue, American officials must be creative, working with Iraqi institutional actors while simultaneously engaging with less central figures such as apolitical military commanders and the business community.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Democracy, State, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

114. The Palestinian Authority Thirty Years After Oslo

Author:
Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Palestinians and Israelis mark the thirtieth anniversary of the Oslo Accords, it is worth pausing to examine what remains of the original promise contained in the agreement (hint: something does remain). More than that, it is worth examining whether those remnants can survive the many challenges facing the Palestinian Authority, especially those likely to emerge “the day after” President Mahmoud Abbas exits the stage.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Democracy, Palestinian Authority, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

115. Saudi Normalization with Israel, Domestic 'Transformation,' and U.S. Policy

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Prospects for a Saudi-Israel diplomatic breakthrough appear to have cooled lately amid Riyadh’s rapprochement with Tehran and domestic ferment in Israel. But a narrow focus on these obstacles misses deeper, more encouraging trend lines, including Saudi public receptivity to people-to-people contact already underway in business and sports. Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has stirringly referred to Israel as a “potential ally,” and the transformative post-oil future he is mapping out for the kingdom offers the promise of bilateral cooperation in commerce, high-tech, and tourism, among other sectors. Notwithstanding Riyadh’s deal with Iran, the Saudis and Israelis still share a common threat in the Islamic Republic and a common interest to address it. The key to a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement, writes Segal Executive Director Robert Satloff in this new Institute Policy Note, is the U.S. role. While cautioning that a “Sadat to Jerusalem” moment is unrealistic for Saudi Arabia and Israel in the near future, especially given competing priorities for Riyadh, he argues that President Biden could—if he so chooses—negotiate a historic three-way, win-win-win arrangement that not only establishes formal Saudi-Israel relations but also advances a range of important American interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Reform, Democracy, Normalization, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

116. Turkey's Pivotal 2023 Elections: Issues, Potential Outcomes, and What Comes After

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 14, Turkey’s citizens will cast their ballots for president and parliament, and polls suggest the longtime incumbent could actually lose this time. President Erdogan’s challenger, Republican People’s Party head Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has assembled an ideologically diverse coalition united in its determination to oust the ruling bloc. Guiding the opposition, known popularly as the “Table of Six,” is a message focused on restoring competence amid sky-high inflation and a faltering response to the devastating February earthquakes. But Erdogan’s challengers still face headwinds created in part by his near-complete control of the media. In this Policy Note compilation, Turkey expert Soner Cagaptay and his fellow contributors concur that Erdogan will use polarizing tactics to keep power, whatever the results of the May 14 balloting or a possible May 28 presidential runoff. They also assess how various wild card developments—including the entry of spoiler candidate Muharrem Ince and meddling from Russia­—could aid the Turkish leader in unforeseen ways.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Strategic Competition, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

117. Nonviolent Protest Movement in Suweida Continues to Resurrect Calls from the Syrian Revolution

Author:
Ishtar Al Shami
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On December 8, residents of Suweida city and the surrounding areas came out to protest the Assad regime yet again. Days later, as the movement entered its sixteenth week, a long line of protesters appeared in the town of Salkhad in the south of Suweida province. On these streets, waves of protesters chant “the people want the downfall of the regime,” echoing cries of the Arab Spring that has in the past sparked swift military backlash from the Syrian Regime. Syrian opposition flags are common, along with the Druze flag—the community to which the large majority of Suweida’s inhabitants belong. Meanwhile, several residents of Salkhad and nearby Shahbaa city broke into their local Baath party offices to either close down or take documents from an already closed building. These offices joined the fate of other Baath party offices throughout the province that have been shut down in towns including Melh, Arman, al-Qurayya, and Sama al-Bardan. In videos posted to social media, these protesters tore up pictures of Bashar al-Assad in a clear challenge and explicit rejection of the regime’s legitimacy, demanding its departure. In the events of this one week, Syrians following the protests could see a microcosm of the larger Suweida protest movement, now over a hundred days in and with no signs of stopping. Although the peaceful demonstrations in Suweida are no longer in the international spotlight since the outbreak of the Gaza war, the movement is remarkable for its longevity and continued open articulation of so many of the ideas that initially motivated Syrians to take to the streets in 2011, and that the Syrian regime has tried so desperately to repress in the intervening years. These protests are the means through which the demonstrators communicate with the world, and have become a symbol for many Syrians both within the country and outside of it. When they began in mid-August 2023, their unprecedented scope meant that they were almost immediately hailed as a second wave of the Syrian revolution. At the time, many wondered: Will Suweida be the turning point? Will this movement be able to oust the Assad regime and usher in a democratic political process that could make reconstruction possible, allowing the return of refugees and the displaced? While protesters in Suweida have not yet accomplished these admittedly audacious goals, neither have they been silenced or forced into submission in the intervening months. This in itself should be seen as a victory; the Suweida movement has become the longest, most organized, widespread, and participatory movement since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, a mixed-gender civilian movement with broad and influential participation from all segments of Suweida’s society.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Protests, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Suwayda

118. Civil Society in Tunisia: Resetting Western Policy Expectations

Author:
Sabina Henneberg, Amy Hawthorne, and Jean-Louis Romanet Perroux
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 23, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with Sabina Henneberg, Amy Hawthorne, and Jean-Louis Romanet Perroux. Henneberg is the Institute’s Soref Fellow and author of its new study Civil Society in Tunisia: Resetting Expectations. Hawthorne is deputy director for research at the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). Perroux is director of the Tunisia-based North African Policy Initiative. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Civil Society, Reform, Democracy, and Economy
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

119. To Prevent the PA from Unraveling, Address Internal Reform

Author:
Ghaith al-Omari
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last year was one of the bloodiest in the West Bank since the second Palestinian intifada two decades ago, and 2023 is already on track to surpass it. Worse yet, the latest surge of violence comes at a time of exceptional fragility within the Palestinian Authority. Much of this fragility can be attributed to Israeli actions that chip away at the PA’s credibility and effectiveness—a fact driven home by Israel’s deadly February 22 raid in Nablus (see below). Yet the PA’s poor governance and political ossification are key contributors as well, as leaders in Ramallah steadily lose control over parts of the West Bank in a vicious cycle of instability and ever-eroding legitimacy. If this trajectory continues, the PA might even run the risk of unraveling altogether. As the United States seeks diplomatic ways to restore calm and curb escalatory policies on both sides, it should pay closer attention to domestic Palestinian factors that contribute to these damaging trends.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Diplomacy, Reform, Democracy, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

120. The Impact of Digital Policy Tools on Local Democracy

Author:
Itır Akdoğan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This brief analyses how the digital policy tool My Purple Map, developed by TESEV in cooperation with UN Women Turkey and Eskişehir Metropolitan Municipality, has impacted a local government and puts forward a number of recommendations as to how this impact can be further broadened for a stronger local democracy.
Topic:
United Nations, Democracy, Inequality, Digital Policy, and Gender
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

121. Opiate of the Masses: Analysing Dynamics, Rhetoric, and Sociopolitical Consequences of Populism in Contemporary Politics of Pakistan

Author:
Muhammad Kamran Fiaz and Rafida Nawaz
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Populism is a political phenomenon that has gained significant attention in recent times due to its ability to appeal to the masses for common good and to bring about changes in established political systems. It has become a significant political force in many parts of the world, including Pakistan. Pakistan is a country that has experienced political instability and economic challenges since its inception. While populism has provided a platform for addressing the grievances of marginalized communities, it has also posed significant challenges to democratic governance and economic stability. Mixed method research approach is utilized in the study to examine the role of populism in the political history of Pakistan. To study political dynamics of Pakistan, the works of scholars such as Ernesto Laclau, Chantal Mouffe, Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe Schmitter are used in the research paper. To gather empirical data, a questionnaire has been employed as a research tool. This enables a deeper understanding of recent developments in populism within Pakistan. By examining the historical and social context of Pakistan and identifying the factors that have contributed to the rise of populist movements in the country, the research paper aims to analyze the developments of populism in Pakistan offering insights into its potential benefits and pitfalls. The findings of the study will have significant implications for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners in Pakistan and beyond.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

122. Perceptions of Public Accountability and its Impacts on Democratic Stability in Nigeria: Observations from Akwa Ibom State

Author:
Lawrence I. Edet and Monday S. Akpakpan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The manner at which public officials manipulates and won elections in Nigeria deeply depreciates the political value of the electorate and embolden such officials to refuse to be accountable to the masses. Thus, democracy in Nigeria has been profoundly endangered since Nigeria returned to democratic system of government in 1999 as a result of undemocratic practices, chiefly, the aspects that relates to elections and public accountability. At the center of these democratic misdemeanors in Nigeria is inherent lack of transparency and accountability of public leaders. This study therefore investigates perceptions of public accountability and its impacts on democratic stability in Nigeria with observations from Akwa Ibom State. The study articulated four objectives which translated into four research questions and four hypotheses. The Social Contract Theory was adopted for this study. The study also adopted descriptive research design and chi-square statistical technique to analyze the data collected. Research questionnaire was distributed to sample of 200 participants randomly selected from each of the three senatorial districts of Akwa Ibom State, totaling 600, which the researcher only retrieved 570 of it. The findings revealed among others that citizens’ views about the electoral processes influence their perceptions of democratic stability. The study recommended among others that the electoral processes should be very transparent to all citizens to enlist their trust and confidence in the political system.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Accountability, Transparency, and Public Officials
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

123. Democracy and the Politics of Ethnicity and Language in Pakistan During the Bhutto Regime: A Case Study of Balochistan

Author:
Changiz Ahmed, Mohammad Ali, and Adnan Riaz
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The article studies the dynamics of ethnic conflict in Balochistan and its relation to the paradigm of democracy in Pakistan during the first elected government in the Bhutto Era. Like many third-world countries, the language controversies in Pakistan have provoked ethnic and political conflicts. Due to disagreements over the national language, the government was unable to develop a constitution for nearly 9 years after independence. Though the dispute was theoretically resolved in 1956, it continues to haunt the state. Although Bhutto was an elected leader, his rule was not immune to ethnic conflicts. Ethnic sentiments garnered attention in Balochistan, triggering confrontations and secessionist tendencies. An insurgency began in Balochistan, causing harm to both the Baloch and the state, and it still exists. The article affirms that in this context, ethnic conflicts have political objectives; the main causes of such conflicts are political, such as under-representation in state institutions, unequal distribution of resources, economic disparities, and, in many cases, the state elite's reluctance to recognise the identity of a particular ethnic minority.
Topic:
Politics, Insurgency, Democracy, Ethnicity, Language, Federalism, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Balochistan

124. Military Dominance in Post-Colonial States; A Case Study of Pakistan

Author:
Javed Ali
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
All colonies got independence in the twentieth century through fighting or political movements against the colonizers or got independence without any struggle. mostly in these (post-colonial) states, military is dominant where political institutions are weak. Pakistan is one of these states, where army waged war against the democracy successfully and ruled directly half of the independence period. It indirect ruled the country through installing or dissolution of civilian governments. Now, they run the state from behind through giving instructions to the civilians, legalized its power using rivalry with India (Shah, 2020). Coincidently, during the military rule, Pakistan got economic well-being and remained stable (Burkey, 2010). It is now ray of hope that the military will disassociate itself from politics and become neutral. This paper will discuss the reasons behind the military dominance and provide a solution how to get rid from this dominance without hurting people confidence in the military and without wrong labeling it.
Topic:
History, Democracy, Military, and Post-Colonial
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

125. The EU and CT-P/CVE in its external action

Author:
Dylan Macchiarini Crosson, Tatjana Stankovic, Pernille Rieker, and Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This article re-frames the ongoing democracy versus security debate surrounding the European Union’s (EU) policies to counter terrorism and prevent/counter violent extremism (CT-P/CVE). Indeed, extant literature has primarily focused on how the EU’s CTP/CVE-specific emphasis on security concerns has come at the expense of attention towards good governance and social justice, thereby undermining the effectiveness of its approach. After reviewing general concepts discerned from previous research on the EU’s CT-P/CVE policy, tracing its approach over time, analysing key documents, and conducting interviews with policymakers, this analysis finds that the EU – in its words, funding, and policy implementation – also pays significant CT-P/CVE-relevant attention to the structural causes of radicalisation to violent extremism and terrorism by mobilising significant developmentoriented resources and diplomatic energy. By doing so, the EU’s CT-P/CVE policies balance an emphasis on security concerns and broader socio-economic and diplomatic engagement. However, the EU simultaneously de-emphasises good governance and peacebuilding, which must be reinforced and mainstreamed across its primary developmental engagement for the EU’s CT-P/CVE approach to be considered fully fit-for-purpose.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Governance, Violent Extremism, European Union, Democracy, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Europe

126. Turkey at 100 | Reassessing Turkey's National Identity: A Century of Change

Author:
Jenny White, Ali Yaycioglu, Kemal Kirisci, Mustafa Akyol, Gulseren Onanc, Can Candan, and Michael Harris
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
This year marks the centenary of the establishment of the Turkish Republic. To reflect on this occasion, assess current realities, and discuss Turkey's future, the Middle East Institute's Turkish Studies Program is pleased to announce its 12th Annual Turkey Conference, which will be convened on Dec. 6, 2023, at the historical National Press Building, in downtown Washington, D.C. We look forward to hosting you for a full day of insightful and timely conversations on how Turkey's identity has changed in the last 100 years, the health of the country's democracy, the evolving direction of Ankara's foreign and regional policies, and its relationship with the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Ideology, and Identity
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

127. The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea

Author:
Shadi Hamid and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea, author Shadi Hamid explores what he describes as the ‘democratic dilemma,’ the U.S. desire for democracy in theory but not in practice. Hamid cites the rise of Islamist parties during a wave of democratic elections across the Middle East, which he argues produced outcomes the U.S. was not intending, such as the empowerment of Hamas in Gaza following the 2006 Palestinian elections. Reviewing the lessons learned from the past two decades of U.S. policy in the Middle East, Hamid proposes ‘democratic minimalism’ as a new approach to democracy promotion. Instead of viewing democracy as a tool to usher in liberalism, economic development, and cultural progress, Hamid argues that democracy as an end in of itself should be prioritized over other liberal values. Please join us at the Middle East Institute for an in-person discussion with author Shadi Hamid and Thomas Carothers, Co-Director and Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on the strategy of U.S. democracy promotion abroad, the consequences of the democratic push in the early twenty-first century and the future shape of governance systems globally. Gönül Tol, MEI Senior Fellow and Director of the Turkey Program, will moderate the discussion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Islamism, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

128. Why El Salvador’s Anti-Crime Measures Cannot (and Should Not) Be Exported

Author:
Tiziano Breda
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
One year has passed since El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele launched a “war on gangs”, embedded in a state of exception that has since been renewed monthly. The government claims to have arrested 66,000 alleged gang members, projecting the image of an upfront battle against criminal organisations that has yielded results in bringing down murder rates. This has earned Bukele the approval not only of most Salvadorans, but millions of citizens throughout Latin America. His methods have become a foreign policy tool and a driver of electoral disputes in the region. But are they “exportable” to other countries? And should they?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Crime, Human Rights, Law Enforcement, Democracy, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
South America, North America, El Salvador, and United States of America

129. New political equations in Europe one year before the European elections

Author:
Pascale Joannin
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Europe is facing a situation that it never thought it would have to face again: there is now a war on its borders, whereas since 1950 the European project has been built on peace ("Never again"), and as a result the return of power struggles which is forcing Europe to adapt its rules so that it can remain relevant in the global competition. In these circumstances, the European elections of spring 2024 (6-9 June) represent a political opportunity to assert and strengthen Europe's place and weight on the international scene. This election will be the starting point for an almost complete renewal of the European institutions with the appointment of the Commission and the designation of a new President of the European Council. Therefore, a crucial political year lies ahead[1]. What does the political landscape in Europe look like one year before this major electoral event?
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Citizenship, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

130. How to make legal life easier for European citizens ?

Author:
Laurence Leguil
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Being born and growing up, settling down, often starting a family, welcoming a child, sometimes separating, growing old and saying goodbye to loved ones: this has been the human journey since the dawn of time. The notary accompanies the citizen through these key stages. Because their clientele is so varied, notaries are increasingly having to deal with complex cases: a family member lives or has married in another Member State; a property is located abroad; a will has been filed with a solicitor in another country because it was drawn up when the person was expatriated, etc. Although these situations are not part of the everyday life of Europe's 53,000 notaries, they are becoming less and less marginal and mean that we need to find innovative solutions to resolve new difficulties: accessing a foreign law, addressing administrative procedures in other Member States, unrecognised legal situations, etc. It should be recognised that since the Tampere European Summit in 1999, which established the area of Freedom, Security and Justice, European civil law has evolved considerably, making the task of judges and legal practitioners much easier. However, European citizens still face a number of very real difficulties. Notaries are there to provide solutions. We have identified a number of issues: family life, the transfer of assets, support for vulnerable adults and the circulation of public documents.
Topic:
Democracy, Citizenship, Bureaucracy, and Civil Law
Political Geography:
Europe

131. The New Crusades: Islamophobia and the Global War on Muslims — by Khaled A. Beydoun

Author:
Khaled A. Beydoun
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Discover a groundbreaking exploration of Islamophobia on a global scale in 'The New Crusades' by Khaled A. Beydoun. This seminal book offers an unprecedented deep dive into how both democratic and authoritarian regimes worldwide are exploiting Islamophobia to target Muslim populations. Beydoun meticulously analyzes the impact of the American War on Terror, revealing its pivotal role in amplifying and interconnecting anti-Muslim campaigns across continents. From Europe to Asia, the Middle East, and beyond, 'The New Crusades' provides a critical and intimate examination of Islamophobia's diverse manifestations. This is the first book to offer such a comprehensive analysis, making it a must-read for anyone seeking to understand the complexities of global Islamophobia and its far-reaching consequences.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Islamophobia, Muslims, and Book Talk
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Global Focus

132. Safeguarding Democracy against Disinformation: Insights from Taiwanese Civil Society

Author:
Nelson Wen
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassadors Review
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
On August 2, 2022, pedestrians near convenience stores and a few public spaces around Taiwan began noticing that the content on digital billboards had been replaced with strident messages in Chinese, such as “Greater China will ultimately be unified!” That same month, the websites of a Taiwan university and other organizations were defaced with messages, including “There is only one China in the world!” Meanwhile, the military of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was conducting days of drills and missile launches on a scale previously unseen, though certain photos and videos claiming to show Chinese military exercises near Taiwan were later proven by Taiwan-based fact-checking organizations to be doctored or fabricated. This combination of disinformation, military saber rattling and hacking activity was the latest example of what Taiwan authorities, scholars and civil society have termed “cognitive warfare.” The experiences of Taiwan in trying to protect the integrity of its information environment against such influence attempts merit close attention from all societies and the United States in particular. This is because Taiwan provides a model for a multifaceted, grassroots response to combat disinformation, and also because a large proportion of disinformation in Taiwan relates to discrediting the United States as a reliable security partner.[ii] Based on interviews with a select group of Taiwan non-governmental organizations (NGOs), this article will illustrate how parts of Taiwan’s civil society are dealing with the challenges posed by foreign and homegrown disinformation.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

133. International Impact of American Politics

Author:
Victor H. Ashe
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassadors Review
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
The divisiveness of American politics has always been around at some level since World War II, but it seems to have reached new heights in 2022. Among negative consequences, some candidates whose qualifications seem hard to discern were elected. However, we live in a democracy, and voters are entitled to their views even if they may be mistaken. Robust debate is vital, but in many cases candidates from both American political parties have refused to appear together to debate. This is especially unfortunate in my view as voters should be able to see and hear opposing candidates debate each other. The presidential candidates in both Brazil and France appeared together in 2022. Yet it is not clear that 2024 will see our two major party nominees sharing the same stage to debate. Even on a local level where I live in Knoxville, Tennessee, several Republican candidates from local to federal levels simply declined to debate their Democratic opponents or respond to questions. Several of those GOP nominees were articulate and could have held their own but opted not to showcase themselves. Such an attitude is wrong in my view and totally driven by narrow partisan political considerations. It deprives voters of a first-hand view of the opposing candidates.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

134. Book Launch & Talk: Japan’s Quiet Leadership: Reshaping the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Mireya Solís and Gerald Curtis
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Dr. Mireya Solís of the Brookings Institution will lead a talk and Q&A session on her new book Japan’s Quiet Leadership: Reshaping the Indo-Pacific scheduled for release on 1 September 2023. The book delves into Japan's transformation into a significant player in the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, highlighting its strengths in democratic resilience, social stability, and proactive diplomacy, while addressing pressing issues such as depopulation, rising inequality, and regional peace threats.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Democracy, Inequality, Leadership, Resilience, Social Stability, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

135. Reflections on Nigeria’s Elections: Threats, potential outcomes and relevance to democracy in West Africa

Author:
Paul Osei-Kuffour
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
The upcoming presidential election in Nigeria has generated huge interest and enthusiasm within the sub-region. The election has been described as the most competitive since returning to multi-party democracy in 1999. This paper reflects on the prevailing context barely one month into the election. It discusses the relevance of the election to the sub-region, major reforms around the election and why it is receiving enormous attention in Nigeria and the whole of West Africa. It concludes with an analysis of the factors shaping the potential outcome of the election.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, and Nigeria

136. The Democratic Quality of Primaries in Ghana: A Look at the 2020 NPP Internal Party Elections

Author:
Gildfred Boateng Asiamah, Francisca Sarpong Owusu, and Alfred Torsu
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
In Ghana, political party primaries are not only a democratic imperative but also a constitutional requirement. However, no laws regulate the conduct of political party primaries in Ghana. Even the involvement of the national election management body, the Electoral Commission (EC), is limited to the counting and declaration of votes. This paper shares insights on the extent to which the parliamentary primaries conform to fundamental principles of democratic elections and identifies the mechanisms that party executives and leadership use to circumvent the democratic processes.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Political Parties, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

137. Why Democracies Implement Better Climate Actions: Case Study of India, the Philippines, and Japan

Author:
Niranjan Sahoo and Jisoo Park
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Asia is the most populous and one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world. Long coastline, vast low lying areas comprising many small island nations make it highly susceptible to climate change such as rising sea level and extreme weather events like floods, landslides. For many critics, democracies' response to climate change is much impeded due to their slow decision-making process and short-termism governed by electoral compulsions. Some analysts go as far as to claim that authoritarianism is needed to tackle the crisis more effectively. However, close examination of different governance structure's climate actions strongly supports that democracies are inherently better at handling climate crisis compared to authoritarian regimes. This article explores the multifaceted impact of climate change to democracy and delves into the case studies of India, the Philippines, and Japan to identify strengths as well as areas of improvement that democracies should consider to establish meaningful climate actions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Japan, India, Asia, and Philippines

138. Shifting Paradigms: The Rise of the Move Forward Party and the Changing Face of Thai Democracy

Author:
Napon Jatusripitak
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In light of the 2023 general election in Thailand that delivered a surprise victory for the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP), Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting research fellow at the ISEAS ? Yusof Ishak Institute, analyzes the shifting political dynamics in the country and explains the key to MFP’s success. With the election outcome reflecting public’s heightened awareness and desire for political participation and citizen engagement, Thai politics seems prepared for transition from the conservative status quo. Nevertheless, Jatusripitak emphasizes that a sustainable change in domestic governance depends on the MFP’s capacity to carry out the drive for democracy and the conservative establishment’s willingness to accept and adjust.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Social Media, Political Parties, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

139. The Demise of ‘Hybrid’ Democracy in Pakistan: Case of Ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Arrest

Author:
Haider Kaleem
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Following the arrest of Pakistan`s former Prime Minister Imran Khan, social unrest and civil-military tension continue to grip the country. Haider Kaleem, a development researcher and journalist in Pakistan, attributes the current democratic crisis to the longstanding practice of military intervention in the country`s political affairs. Pointing out that the general mass is not adequately represented in the political discussions, Kaleem argues that Pakistan`s democracy will remain impaired until the power to form or dismantle regimes is transferred from the military to the hands of the people.
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, Civil-Military Relations, Civil Unrest, and Imran Khan
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

140. Recent Defamation Case and Mounting State Onslaughts Against Political Opposition in India

Author:
Niranjan Sahoo
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Niranjan Sahoo, a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), assesses the current state of political opposition in India. Highlighting the recent defamation case against the key opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, Sahoo points out that the current Bharatiya Janata Party government has consistently deployed state agencies and has taken advantage of its brute majority in the lower house of Parliament to weaken and silence the opposition voice. Questioning the sustainability of this rare occasion of unity among the opposition parties over Mr. Gandhi`s disqualification, Sahoo paints a grim outlook for India’s democracy should the marginalization of opposition voices continue.
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, Narendra Modi, Opposition, and Defamation
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

141. Japan’s Gradual Move to Address Technological Challenges to Democracy

Author:
Maiko Ichihara
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Maiko Ichihara, a professor at Hitotsubashi University Graduate School of Law, explores the challenges that technological advancements pose to democracy and analyzes Japan’s recent efforts to regulate disinformation and protect private data. Despite the absence of global regulations on digital technology, Ichihara highlights Japan’s domestic fact-checking efforts as well as its multilateral initiatives with G7 to create action plans promoting international cooperation against disinformation and data privacy abuse. In order to bolster democracy in the digital realm, she advocates for a proactive development of counter-narratives to fake news on social media.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Regulation, Privacy, Social Media, G7, Disinformation, Data Collection, and Digital Space
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

142. Upcoming Elections and Political Turmoil in Pakistan

Author:
Ahmed Bilal Mehboob
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
As the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) delayed a key provincial election due to financial and security-related issues, a potential constitutional crisis looms over the country. In light of the deepening political turmoil in Pakistan, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob explores how this crisis has developed and offers a grim outlook of holding a free and fair election this year. Mehboob argues that the former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s audacious move to seek fresh elections to both the National and Provincial Assemblies have exacerbated party polarization, and Supreme Court decisions for the court cases are unlikely to be fully enforced due to such divide. Mehboob warns that prolonged political crisis may induce military intervention to restore order so that the elections could be pushed ahead.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Constitution, Domestic Politics, Supreme Court, and Imran Khan
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

143. Indonesia’s ASEAN Chairmanship: Challenges for Strengthening Democracy Agenda in ASEAN

Author:
Lidya C. Sinaga
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Lidya Christin Sinaga analyzes the internal and external challenges that Indonesia, as the Chair of ASEAN, faces in promoting the principles of democracy in the organization`s agenda. Sinaga claims that the recent cases of Indonesia`s democratic regression have damaged the credibility of its sincerity in spreading democracy in Southeast Asia. On the other end, the ASEAN member states’ growing emphasis on economic performance as their source of legitimacy complicates the regional organization`s commitment to democratic values. Given that the ASEAN has limited influence on its member states’ respective political 시스템s, whether Indonesia can successfully implement democratic agenda this year depends on the extent of the members’ willingness to engage in meaningful political communication. Finally, Sinaga argues that bolstering commitment to democracy within the ASEAN can only be successful when every member states recognize that democratic principles are critical for regional prosperity.
Topic:
Democracy, Economy, ASEAN, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

144. Restoring Democracy in Myanmar: A Call for Bolstered Anti-Junta Resistance Forces

Author:
Lin Htet Myat
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
February 2023 marks the second anniversary of the military coup in Myanmar that ousted its civilian government and cracked down on democratic protests. Lin Htet Myat, a political analyst from Myanmar, assesses the grim situation in the country and offers new approaches that both the international community and the Burmese anti-junta forces should take to facilitate the restoration of democracy. The author argues that the international community must not engage the junta to seek for a peaceful resolution, and instead strengthen material support and communication with anti-junta forces within Myanmar. Meanwhile, Burmese democratic resistance forces should bolster military cooperation among like-minded groups and build trust in preparation for a federal democratic Myanmar.
Topic:
Democracy, Coup, Humanitarian Crisis, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia and Myanmar

145. Taiwan’s Civic Space Threatened by Chinese Misinformation and the Government’s Worrisome Legislative Responses

Author:
Chin-en Wu
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Civic space in Taiwan is consistently threatened by misinformation campaigns and operations run by external forces, particularly mainland China. Chin-en Wu, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica, assesses that China disseminates fake news to portray positive image of itself while creating internal polarization and competition in Taiwan. The Taiwanese government has attempted to take various measures, such as amending the Social Order Maintenance Act and introducing social media regulation bill, to counter the rampant Chinese misinformation activities. Although Wu acknowledges that the Taiwanese government should collaborate with the civil society to safeguard the island from misinformation, Wu warns that the government must be conscious of the potential damage that the restrictive measures against fake news could inflict on Taiwan’s liberal democracy.
Topic:
Democracy, Social Media, Misinformation, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Asia

146. Expanding International Cooperation against Corruption in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Sook-Jong Lee
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In light of the Indo-Pacific regional meeting of the 2nd Summit for Democracy (S4D2) (hosted by South Korea) choosing to discuss matters on corruption, Dr. Sook Jong Lee, a Professor at Sungkyunkwan University and a Senior Fellow at EAI, evaluates the state of corruption within the region. Despite persistent and wide-spread efforts to tackle the malignant effects of corruption, Dr. Lee points out that progress has been slow, especially due to the dominance of grand corruption and preserving independence for anti-corruption institutions. Lee concludes by suggesting that, with the Summit as a launch pad, leaders should look into the creation of a network of anti-corruption bodies to boost international cooperation, capacity building, and promoting independence.
Topic:
Corruption, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Indo-Pacific

147. The Role of Democracy Discourse in the Emerging "New Cold War"

Author:
Emre Demir and Sirma Altun
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
In the first three decades after China initiated reform and opening-up policies in 1978, its relations with the United States (U.S.) improved steadily. However, in the post-2007/2008 global financial crisis period, both countries’ attitudes toward each other began to change. Particularly since the Trump administration, as the U.S. started to define China as its main competitor, their bilateral relations deteriorated further. As a result, scholars, diplomats, and politicians worldwide began to talk about the emergence of a new Cold War between China and the U.S., encompassing economic, ideological, military, and political aspects. The ideological aspect of this emerging “new Cold War” revolves around the discourse of democracy.
Topic:
Cold War, Hegemony, Democracy, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

148. Seeking to undermine democracy and partnerships: How the CCP is influencing the Pacific islands information environment

Author:
Blake Johnson and Joshua Dunne
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is conducting coordinated information operations in Pacific island countries (PICs). Those operations are designed to influence political elites, public discourse and political sentiment regarding existing partnerships with Western democracies. Our research shows how the CCP frequently seeks to capitalise on regional events, announcements and engagements to push its own narratives, many of which are aimed at undermining some of the region’s key partnerships. This report examines three significant events and developments: the establishment of AUKUS in 2021 the CCP’s recent efforts to sign a region-wide security agreement the 2022 Pacific Islands Forum held in Fiji. This research, including these three case studies, shows how the CCP uses tailored, reactive messaging in response to regional events and analyses the effectiveness of that messaging in shifting public discourse online. This report also highlights a series of information channels used by the CCP to push narratives in support of the party’s regional objectives in the Pacific. Those information channels include Chinese state media, CCP publications and statements in local media, and publications by local journalists connected to CCP-linked groups.1
Topic:
Science and Technology, Partnerships, Democracy, Social Media, Disinformation, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Pacific

149. Western Balkans’ Horizon 2023 – New uncertainties in a changed geopolitical setting

Author:
Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
“The age of uncertainty” has recently become the most used description for the time we live in. The aggression of Russia against Ukraine and the war approaching now its second year have changed the globe. Global uncertainties and huge geopolitical changes we witness are mirrored in European semiperipheral regions like the Western Balkans. The Western Balkans has been in a limbo for a while with no major progress towards the EU and democracy in general. Instead of steady democratization in the region we witnessed a gradual autocratization, most prominently in Serbia, and constant rise of crisis and tensions.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Autocracy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Balkans

150. The Far-Right in the Western Balkans. How the Extreme Right is Threatening Democracy in the Region

Author:
Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
At the beginning of the 21st century, the rise of the far-right in Europe should no longer be considered as a peripheral phenomenon but rather as a serious sign of the crisis of the liberal post-Cold War order. The growth of far-right voters and the proliferation of far-right parties, movements, and subcultural groups stands for a changed political and ideological landscape, one where the notion of democracy is increasingly and openly contested. “Rechte Bedrohungsallianzen” – “Right-wing threat alliances” as a direct opposition to open society constitute a phenomenon that must not be ignored. This paper looks closer into the most representative far-right groups and organisations in Serbia during the last two decades. Even though the far-right in most Western Balkan countries is not a decisive political factor yet, the boundary separating its political agenda from mainstream political parties is becoming thinner. The internationalization of right-wing extremism has expanded the strategic possibilities of far-right action beyond national political structures thus giving it an international perspective and global meaning. These new international “signatures of the far-right” continue to be a threat to democracy both in the national and regional context in the Western Balkans as well as beyond the region.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Ideology, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Serbia, Balkans, and Western Europe