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22. Georgia at a Crossroads: An Increasingly Illiberal Domestic Policy is Becoming an Obstacle to EU Accession
- Author:
- Reinhold Brender
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Georgia faces a defining moment. The recent adoption of a Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, modelled on Russian legislation, clashes with Georgia’s goal of EU accession. The law allows for extensive control and elimination of civil society and critical voices, which contradicts the democratic principles required for EU membership. The ruling Georgian Dream party nonetheless claims that EU accession, a goal shared by most Georgians, remains achievable by 2030. As the parliamentary elections on 26 October approach, the party seeks to maintain its grip on power by projecting an image of commitment to democracy and EU integration. But opposition parties, civil society organisations and the media have rallied against the law, which many believe reflects a deeper issue: the efforts of a small elite around billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili to consolidate power and push Georgia towards authoritarianism under the guise of democratic governance. An increasing alignment with Russia has accompanied this trend, potentially enabling Russia to exert some level of control over Georgia through a local proxy instead of direct military intervention. This policy brief argues that the EU should implement the steps that High Representative Josep Borrell announced after the Foreign Affairs Council on 24 June 2024. In light of further developments, consideration should be given to additional measures, including targeted EU sanctions on anti-democratic actors similar to those imposed by the US. Continued EU support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russian aggression will also be vital for the sovereignty of both Ukraine and Georgia, as well as for regional stability.
- Topic:
- European Union, Democracy, Regional Integration, Domestic Policy, and Illiberalism
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Georgia
23. Defence of Democracy: a Discussion on Democracy and the Path Ahead for a Culture of Participation
- Author:
- Ward Den Dooven
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- On the occasion of the European Commission’s release of the Defence of Democracy package (DoD) on 12 December 2023, the Egmont Institute – together with the G1000 – organised a debate focused specifically on the recommendation on the participation of citizens and civil society organisations in public policy-making. As part of Egmont’s wider outreach mandate under the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU and building upon G1000’s longstanding expertise as an innovator in the Belgian democratic landscape and beyond, the purpose was to explore the road ahead for this recommendation, both under the Belgian Presidency , as well as beyond by adoption of the next strategic agenda by the June European Council and the consequential Commission priorities.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
24. Promoting European Democracy and Solidarity in a Wider EU
- Author:
- Lila Djait
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with the support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from European Union (EU) institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The third round of foresight workshop and working dinner reflected on ‘Promoting European Democracy and Solidarity in a wider EU’. In recent years, the European Union has faced a pivotal juncture in its history, grappling with internal and external pressures that test its foundational principles of democracy, rule of law, and solidarity. The discourse surrounding the enlargement of the EU, adherence to the rule of law, fiscal stewardship, and the need for a cohesive strategy to confront emerging geopolitical challenges underscores the imperative for a strategic re-evaluation.
- Topic:
- European Union, Democracy, Economy, Solidarity, Regional Integration, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe
25. EU Elections: National Democracy at Its Cornerstone?
- Author:
- Ward Den Dooven
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- On the eve of the European elections, those who keep a keen eye already know that a big turnaround of the European hemicycle is to be expected, with more than 50% being newly elected. In a recent article, the secondary place occupied by the European elections was highlighted; in Belgium they can even be said to only rank as tertiary due to its collision with national and regional elections on the same day. Although up to 8 member states will see both national and European elections in 2024, this very much gives a unique context to the EU elections in Belgium. Its conclusions however were not new: although the federal government presented itself as radically pro-European, currently holding the Council of the EU’s rotating Presidency, in Belgium as well as abroad, the European election is inherently still very much national in nature: the limited space that is left for it between the other campaigns becomes confused through both themes and politicians being presented at other levels than they (currently) sit.
- Topic:
- Economics, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
26. The US Should Support the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan
- Author:
- Luke Coffey
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- More than three years ago, the Taliban swept back into power in Afghanistan after a two-decade insurgency against the internationally backed Afghan government. Since then, the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated considerably. The country faces an acute humanitarian crisis affecting millions and has once again become a haven for transnational terrorism. This tragic outcome was not inevitable, and it is worth reviewing recent history. Starting in 2014, United States troops in Afghanistan were no longer leading daily combat operations but were instead primarily training the Afghan military. When President Donald Trump entered office in January 2017, there were only 11,000 US troops in Afghanistan conducting the counterterrorism and training mission. This was down from a peak of 100,000 troops in 2010–11. In February 2020, Trump agreed to a deal with the Taliban that would have seen the phased withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. This agreement was the starting point of the Afghan government’s collapse and the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021. In January 2021, when President Joe Biden entered office, there were only 2,500 US troops in Afghanistan. Crucially, the US still provided close air support for Afghan forces. While this was not enough troops to ensure that the Afghan government could control the whole country, it was enough for the US to meet its counterterrorism objectives and prevent the Taliban from taking power. Instead of canceling the flawed withdrawal agreement with the Taliban—something that was in Biden’s power to do—the president merely delayed the date from May to September. On July 2 the US departed the strategically located and geopolitically important Bagram Airfield in the middle of the night without warning its Afghan partners. Around the same time, the US stopped providing Afghan troops with close air support. By the end of July, almost all US and international forces had left the country. On August 6, 2021, the Taliban captured Zaranj, the capital of Nimroz Province. This was the first time in almost 20 years that the terror group had successfully captured and held one of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals. Soon after, government-controlled capitals started falling like dominos. The Taliban finally captured Kabul on August 15. By September 11—the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks—the Taliban controlled more of Afghanistan than it did on that day in 2001. Since the Taliban’s return to power, only one credible and non-extremist group has been willing to take up arms in opposition: the National Resistance Front (NRF) of Afghanistan, led by Ahmad Massoud. Based in the Panjshir Province and operating in more than a dozen other provinces, the NRF has continued to fight against the Taliban against all odds and without any international support. Though there is no longer an American presence in Afghanistan, the country remains geopolitically important. Afghanistan’s location in the heart of the Eurasian landmass has made it strategically significant in great power competition throughout the nineteenth, twentieth, and twenty-first centuries. There is no reason to assume this will change anytime soon. The Biden administration’s actions have left the US without many good policy options in Afghanistan. Furthermore, many Afghans remain distrustful of the White House. But a new US administration will have an opportunity to reset American policy toward the country.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Terrorism, Taliban, Democracy, and National Resistance Front
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
27. How the US Can Beat the Kremlin in Moldova
- Author:
- Peter Rough and Luke Coffey
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine was a seismic event for the Republic of Moldova. The war upended Chișinău’s long-held belief that constitutional neutrality would protect the country. Additionally, the invasion focused Brussels’s attention on Moldova, which the European Union has often regarded as an afterthought. Moscow’s war catalyzed Moldova’s politics and forced Chișinău and Brussels to make fundamental choices about their future relationship on an accelerated timetable. If Russia hadn’t launched its full-scale invasion, the EU would have probably not invited Moldova to open accession talks so quickly. Important elections in Moldova and a perilous situation in Ukraine ensure that 2024 will be a pivotal year on Chișinău’s path toward Western integration. United States and European policymakers should proactively shape an outcome that benefits both Moldovans and the Euro-Atlantic community.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Organization, Democracy, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Moldova
28. Turkey’s New State in the Making: Transformations in Legality, Economy, and Coercion
- Author:
- Nurhayat Kavrak
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s political history has seen recurring shifts between democratic ideals and authoritarian tendencies, notably during the two decades of the Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) rule. This transition marked a departure from a relatively democratic façade that emerged in response to the European Union (EU) accession process towards a more authoritarian regime characterized by increased government control and curtailment of civil liberties.1 It is a shift accentuated after the 2013 Gezi protests which culminated in a significant regime change in 2018. This transformation was marked by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of power through constitutional amendments, leading to the transition from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential system. To comprehend this transformation, it is imperative to examine the interplay between economic dynamics and the state within the neo-liberal capitalist system, aligning with Poulantzas’ observations on global trends.2 It can be argued that the accumulation and state crises, exacerbated by the 2008 global economic crisis, have contributed to Turkey’s authoritarian shift in parallel with global developments. Originating from a 2018 workshop at Middle East Technical University, Turkey’s New State in the Making: Transformations in Legality, Economy, and Coercion provides a historical-sociological perspective on Turkey’s state crises, serving as a vital resource for comprehending authoritarianism and class-state relations and offering an in-depth exploration of the AKP regime’s transformation, presenting a continuum of its history rather than a rigid division between democratic and authoritarian phases.
- Topic:
- International Relations, History, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Economy, Book Review, AKP, and Coercion
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and European Union
29. Charting the Radical Right’s Influence on EU Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Rosa Balfour and Stefan Lehne
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The political landscape in the European Union (EU) is changing rapidly. For decades, the traditional mainstream parties of the center right and center left have been losing ground, while antiestablishment parties have been gaining support. According to research by the University of Amsterdam, 32 percent of voters opted for antiestablishment parties in 2021, up from 12 percent in the early 1990s.1 Radical-right parties make up about half of this share, and their support has risen faster than that of any other group. Many of the fourteen parties examined in this study have achieved vote shares of 20 percent or more. The radical right is now in government, or supports the government, in Finland, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden. In the Netherlands, it is likely that Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV) will be part of a governing coalition. In other countries, these parties have become the leading opposition groups. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has been carefully preparing to win the 2027 presidential election. Setbacks for the radical right in Poland and Spain in the second half of 2023 have shown that the relentless rise of these parties is not a foregone conclusion. However, current polling for several national elections and the June 2024 European Parliament elections indicates a strong likelihood of their continuing electoral success.2 Chega (Enough), a recently established party that shot to 18 percent of the vote in Portugal’s March 2024 election, ended the country’s exceptionalism as one of the few European nations without a right-wing populist party.3 The June 2024 Belgian federal election may see the Flemish nationalist party Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest), which so far has been strong in Flanders but kept out of national politics, break through at the federal level. Polling for Austria’s September 2024 parliamentary election suggests a surge in support for the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ).4 In contrast with populism, which has a thin ideology focused mainly on fomenting the anger of the so-called pure people against corrupt elites and which has risen on both the left and the right of the political spectrum, the radical-right parties of the 2020s have a more distinct ideological profile.5 All have national specificities, such as rural origins in Northern Europe or ethnonationalism in Central Europe. Several parties are rooted in postwar fascism, such as the FPÖ, RN, Brothers of Italy (FdI), the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), and the Sweden Democrats (SD). For some groups, strong connections with society and well-developed party structures compensated for their marginal impact in national politics. Before its landslide victory in Italy’s 2022 parliamentary election, support for FdI hovered at around 5 percent, as it did for the party’s predecessor throughout the period since World War II.6 Other parties, such as Hungary’s Fidesz, gained ground as classic populist or even mainstream parties and benefited from an aura of respectability even as they shifted toward ethnonationalist or nativist positions. Since the 1990s, liberal-democratic parties have started to adopt some of the ideas of the radical right while keeping the parties themselves out of government. In the 2000s, the radical right became normalized, in some countries becoming part of the political mainstream. During this process, as political scientists Cas Mudde and Jan-Werner Müller have argued, liberal-democratic parties have shifted toward the radical right in the hope—mostly in vain—of keeping their traditional electorates. Yet, in practice, this approach has led voters to prefer the real radical right to its imitators. In other words, the tactic of chasing the radical right has not paid off electorally. Voters have moved toward the radical right as a consequence, not as a cause, of liberal-democratic parties’ attempts to contain it.7 Today, the far right is dominated by the radical right, which, unlike the extreme right, accepts the essence of democracy but rejects its liberal elements: minority rights, the rule of law, and the separation of powers.8 The radical-right parties selected for this study all share deep antimigration sentiments, often determined by race or religion; a nationalism that makes these parties Euroskeptic and opposed to what they see as a Brussels-based dictatorship; and skepticism of climate change policies. Many of these parties also espouse deeply conservative family values that go against women’s and LGBTQ rights. Foreign policy is usually not the strong suit of these parties, apart from their keen interest in the external dimension of migration policy. These parties pay close attention to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine but are sharply divided on this issue, with positions ranging from deep mistrust of Russia to close alignment with the Kremlin’s arguments. A future Donald Trump administration could lead to new divisions in the EU, as some member states are likely to align with the United States under any circumstances. This would mean that many of the EU’s current foreign policy positions, such as support for Ukraine, would come to an end. As radical-right parties rise to prominence at the national and the EU level, they are developing views on a range of foreign policy issues, building increasingly influential international networks and think tanks, and learning from each other’s successful tactics in solidifying their control of the state and propagating their values.9 For some radical-right parties that have been established in government, such as Fidesz and, until October 2023, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, the upgrading of foreign policy on their political agendas can be inferred by the fact that all diplomatic postings in the EU are political appointments. Hungary’s foreign policy machinery is under the direct control of the prime minister.10 Diplomatic colleagues of the Hungarian representatives in Brussels know that the country’s negotiating positions are micromanaged in Budapest.11 Other countries, such as Italy and Finland, have chosen to rely on the credibility of career diplomats to navigate the Brussels machinery, preferring compromise over confrontation and isolation. For a long time, European politicians and EU institutions have assumed the radical right could be contained. Now, the challenge of the radical right needs to be addressed more seriously. Just as this phenomenon has eroded democracy and the rule of law in some EU member states, so foreign policy may become affected at a time when collective action is most needed to address international issues. As the radical right challenges the EU’s attempts to navigate a dangerous world, European politics can no longer afford complacency.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, European Union, Democracy, and Far Right
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, and Germany
30. South Africa’s Cyber Strategy Under Ramaphosa: Limited Progress, Low Priority
- Author:
- Joe Devanny and Russell Buchan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- During the decades of apartheid, South Africa was an international pariah. Since the country transitioned to majority rule in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated politics, and the ANC has itself transitioned from a national liberation movement to a party of government. Domestically, South African cyber strategy should be seen as part of the ANC’s wider political challenge of trying to deliver economic growth, development, and prosperity. Over thirty years, the ANC has struggled to deliver on this agenda in a profoundly unequal society with infrastructure and institutions that have weakened particularly over the past fifteen years. Alongside confronting domestic challenges, the ANC has also tried to reshape South Africa’s global role. This was perhaps most visible under its first president, Nelson Mandela (1994–1999), but it was arguably pursued most systematically under Mandela’s successor, Thabo Mbeki (1999–2008). This reorientation of South Africa in the world was an ambitious and complex project, the foundations of which were the country’s leading role in its region and continent as well as its ties within the wider Global South. The project entailed tensions between the progressive promotion of human rights and freedoms, on the one hand, and the cultivation of instrumental relations with authoritarian and repressive states, on the other. These tensions continue to affect South African foreign policy, including its cyber diplomacy. South Africa identifies cybersecurity as a key national priority and has to this end adopted a national cybersecurity strategy and established a military Cyber Command. The reality, however, is that other issues have been consistently ranked above cybersecurity, such as addressing corruption, poverty, racial and social injustice, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Cybersecurity has therefore not been seen as a high priority by successive South African governments. This has left Cyber Command underresourced and unmotivated. This deprioritization means that South Africa is unlikely to emerge as a prominent military or intelligence cyber power anytime soon. The wider lack of national prioritization will also make it harder for so-called like-minded states—which are bound together by a mutual respect for democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—to form an effective partnership with South Africa on the topic of cybersecurity. South Africa’s approach to international cyber governance debates has been cautious and noncommittal, reflecting cyber diplomacy’s relatively low priority in its national strategy. What position South Africa takes in cyber debates is, however, of keen interest to the international community. An important question is whether South Africa will support the existing multistakeholder approach to cyber governance that is championed by like-minded states or join China and Russia in their efforts to recalibrate this approach and push for greater state control over cyberspace. Indeed, under President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa has not yet published its national position explaining how international law applies to cyberspace. A related question is whether South Africa will join like-minded states in elaborating how existing international law applies to cyberspace or side with China and Russia to campaign for new, bespoke international law (for example, treaties) to regulate this domain. When examining these questions, it is important to recognize the context of the ANC’s long-standing ties with Russia, both during its thirty years in government and in its previous decades struggling for national liberation. This is helpful for understanding South Africa’s interactions with Brazil, Russia, India, and China (which form the BRICS bloc with South Africa) and forecasting its future positions in cyber governance debates. For example, South Africa has been reluctant to unambiguously condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and it appears to have supported Moscow by covertly supplying it with weapons. In the longer term, South Africa’s positions in cyber diplomacy debates will likely be shaped by trends in both domestic politics—such as the ANC’s waning electoral performance—and the success of digital development. In this context, it is perhaps advisable for like-minded states, such as the United States, to focus on cyber capacity-building assistance and ensure that these efforts play into the wider development agenda in South Africa.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Poverty, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, and Racial Justice
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Iran, and South Africa
31. Latin America’s New Right Wings: Shifting Ideologies, Transnational Ties
- Author:
- Ernesto Bohoslavsky and Magdalena Broquetas
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- New far-right forces pose a growing threat to democracy across Latin America and the Caribbean. Read more in the Spring 2024 issue of the NACLA Report on the Americas.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Democracy, Violence, Far Right, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Caribbean
32. The Far-Right Tide Reaches Uruguay
- Author:
- Magdalena Broquetas and Gerardo Caetano
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A new radical right with links to the dictatorship has made unprecedented gains. So far, the country’s strong democracy has tempered its worst impacts.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Domestic Politics, Ideology, and Far Right
- Political Geography:
- South America and Uruguay
33. Tunisia: Public Opinion Report 2023
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Over the past dozen years, Tunisia has experienced dramatic political change. In 2011, the Jasmine Revolution led to the fall of its long-standing leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, ushering in a period of political instability. Following the rewriting of the constitution, free and fair elections were held but yielded only weak and largely ineffective governments. Although Tunisians enjoyed far greater political rights, economically the country regressed. A decade after the revolution, GDP per capita had declined significantly. Stories of corruption within government institutions remained common, yielding an increasingly frustrated public. Elections may give voters a say, but the outcomes of the system often appeared no better than in the days of Ben Ali. Citizens demanded radical change and looked for a leader who they believed could deliver actual results. In the 2019 presidential elections, many Tunisians turned to Kaïs Saïed as a solution. Saïed ran a populist campaign as a political outsider, calling for ending corruption and reforms to the electoral system. In the final round of voting, he captured nearly three-quarters of the vote for an overwhelming victory and strong electoral mandate. In July 2021, Saïed dismissed the prime minister and suspended parliament. Ruling by decree, many members of the judiciary were dismissed and many opposition politicians were arrested. Despite international criticism of these actions, results from the 2021 Arab Barometer demonstrated that most Tunisians were in favor of his actions.1 Just three months after the events of July 25, 2021, most Tunisians had confidence in the president, a majority were optimistic about their economic future for the first time in years, and most believed the government was finally tackling the problem of corruption. In short, many Tunisians had hope for their country’s future. In late 2023, Tunisians remained more optimistic than they had been before the election of Saïed, but Arab Barometer’s survey suggests that some are starting to lose hope. Promises of economic improvements have not been realized—just one-in-ten rate the economy as good, which is largely unchanged since 2013. Economic optimism has also fallen, dropping by 14 points since 2021. During this period, hunger has also increased dramatically, with twothirds of Tunisians saying they have gone without food at least once in the previous month. Moreover, the most common perception is that government mismanagement is the source of food insecurity. Views of most political institutions are relatively weak. Just over a third have confidence in the government while less than a quarter trust parliament. However, trust in President Saïed remains strong, with about three-quarters expressing confidence in their leader. Still, this level is a six point decrease from 2021.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Migration, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, Freedom, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
34. Mauritania: Public Opinion Report 2024
- Author:
- Sahel Foundation
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Mauritania has begun a new phase of peaceful rotation of power, being an embodiment of democracy. This democratic transition has been seen through the country’s last government. Therefore, we observe the rising trend of citizens’ trust in the current government. Nine percent of Mauritanians say they trust the government to a great extent, and more than a quarter (27 percent) say they trust it. In contrast, 38 percent say they have little trust in the government, while nearly one-fifth (22 percent) have no trust in their government at all. In order to increase citizens’ trust in the government, it may be worthwhile to enhance communication between the government and citizens and transparently explain decisions and plans. Moreover, it could be important to that end to improve the quality of public services such as health, education, and infrastructure; strengthen the role of citizens in decision-making and participation in the political process; and take effective measures to combat corruption and promote good governance.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mauritania
35. Morocco: Public Opinion Report 2024
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Morocco has endured multiple crises in recent years including the Coronavirus pandemic and the earthquake that hit the country on September 9, 2023. The aftermath of these crises produces what could be described as two Moroccos: one for the wealthier and better educated, another for the poorer and less educated. Moroccans are clearly divided in their views of almost all issues based on their socioeconomic status (SES). Economic pressure persists, with only a third of Moroccans rating their economy positively. While optimism about the future of the economy has increased, it is largely driven by those with a higher socioeconomic status. Their less-fortunate compatriots are far less optimistic and more concerned about increasing inequality and food insecurity. Trust in the Moroccan government remains relatively low, but trust in parliament, regional government, judiciary, and civil society organizations has increased. Still, those struggling financially tend to be less trusting of all these bodies. Similarly, satisfaction with government performance on economic issues is low, especially among the poor. Moroccans are more satisfied with the provision of certain services, including security and infrastructure. On the other hand, education in particular is among the public services in which Moroccans exhibit the lowest levels of satisfaction. Corruption remains a major concern, with the government seen as not doing enough to combat it. This view is especially true among people with lower socioeconomic status. Wealthier and more educated Moroccans are more positive in their rating of the government’s work on combating corruption. However, many Moroccans are resorting to bribery or connection to navigate the bureaucracy. Economic conditions and corruption are causing Moroccans to consider emigrating. Youth and those facing financial pressure are far more likely to have a desire to leave their country, mainly in pursuit of better economic opportunities. Western countries remain the preferred destination for most of the potential migrants in Morocco, many of whom are willing to leave even if they did not have the required documents to do so. While support for democracy has fluctuated over the past few years, recent trends suggest an increase in support for democratic governance. Moroccans acknowledge that democratic systems have their shortcomings, yet they maintain a belief that democracy is preferable to other forms of governance and particularly support a multi-party parliamentary system.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Morocco
36. Bolivia: desk study on aid and democracy
- Author:
- Swetha Ramachandran
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This study is part of a series of ten country-focused desk studies on aid and democracy prepared under the project The state and statebuilding in the Global South. They are prepared under the guidance of Rachel M. Gisselquist as background to a broader research effort on aid, governance, and democracy promotion. The studies follow a common template and each draws on the research literature and selected cross-national sources to discuss regime type and timeline, findings from the literature on democracy/democratization, findings from the literature on aid and democracy/democratization, aid flows and sources, and specific aid examples. This study addresses the case of Bolivia, with focus on the post-Cold War period.
- Topic:
- Foreign Aid, Governance, Democracy, and Post-Cold War
- Political Geography:
- South America and Bolivia
37. Overcoming digital threats to democracy
- Author:
- Lydia Khalil
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The internet was once considered an open door to democracy and liberty. Today, it is seen as an agent of democratic erosion. Digital challenges to democracy include the scale and spread of disinformation and misinformation, the increase in polarisation and extremism that are facilitated and escalated online, and inadequate regulation. Digital platforms are increasingly perceived by the public as serving the needs and interests of the powerful rather than the public good. Average users have few means to influence key decisions and debates about how digital technologies are used and developed. The rules of the digital sphere — whether made by tech companies, regulators, or politicians — often lack public legitimacy. Applying deliberative democracy principles — where small but representative groups of people make decisions after deliberating on issues in depth — can help address the challenges of legitimacy and generate broadly acceptable solutions to the problems that bedevil online spaces and challenge democracy.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Disinformation, Polarization, and Digital Technologies
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
38. Resistance to Authoritarianism: Lessons Learned from Brazilian Civil Society
- Author:
- Melina Risso, Renata Avelar Gianini, and Camila Nadalini de Godoy
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Igarapé Institute
- Abstract:
- This study aims to encourage debate and strengthen democratic organizations and civil society that defend civic space against attempts to weaken the system of checks and balances that sustain democracy, silence dissenting voices and ideas, co-opt law enforcement agencies, and dismantle public policies to consolidate an authoritarian state. It was developed based on a comprehensive literature review, media coverage analysis, and 18 in-depth interviews with key actors involved in the study’s topics, including civil society, funders, and government officials. The work is divided into six parts. The first part presents the definitions used to develop this study and examines the political context. The following four parts analyze four cases encompassing the main tools used by civil society to defend democracy and combat democratic erosion, highlighting the results achieved. The sixth and final part details essential points of attention for maintaining, strengthening, and continuously promoting a robust civic space and a solid democracy in Brazil. As the authoritarian threats to closing the space for civil society participation are still present nationally and internationally, the initiatives cited here are expected to inspire and guide future initiatives of resistance and protection of civic space in promoting democracy.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Civil Resistance
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
39. Europe’s Democracy Catch-22
- Author:
- Richard Youngs
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- The dominant, epoch-making European storyline is now clear: the rise of the far right threatens the European Union (EU)’s future and democracy. This standard view is expressed in countless opinion pieces and political speeches and is now reshaping both national and EU-level politics. Even if the far right did not surge quite as dramatically as widely predicted in either the European Parliament or French parliamentary elections, its growing popularity clearly represents a pressing challenge both at the EU level and in national politics (Ash 2024). However, the continent’s predicament might be more accurately described as a more subtle and complex conundrum: in the immediate short term, what is good for the EU integration project might not be good for democracy, and vice versa. The EU and national governments have been struggling with this democracy catch-22 for several years now, and the election results make it an even sharper challenge. The postelection context has been dominated by the debate over whether to engage or isolate the far right—a debate that has been exhaustively covered and unfolding for many years. Yet, the empirical record suggests that neither engaging with the far right nor ostracizing it has worked especially well. Instead, a third approach might help map a way out of the democracy catch-22: a European democracy pact.
- Topic:
- Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Far Right
- Political Geography:
- Europe
40. Mongolia’s Electoral Reform and the State Great Khural (Parliamentary) Elections
- Author:
- Ganbat Damba and Byambakhand Luguusharav
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Since the transition to a democratic systеm and market economy in the early 1990s, Mongolia has held its 9th parliamentary election. In a historic first, the election held on June 28 was carried out under the new electoral systеm. A total of 78 members of parliament (MPs) were elected from 13 majoritarian districts, with an additional 48 MPs elected through proportional representation in a nationwide constituency (General Election Commission of Mongolia 2024). The new parliament consists of 126 seats, in accordance with the amendments to the Constitution introduced in 2023. The election results demonstrated that the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) secured 68 seats, followed by the Democratic Party (DP) with 42 seats, the HUN Party with 8 seats, and both the National Alliance and the Civil Will-Green Party with 4 seats each. It is noteworthy that the MPP won 50 constituency seats and 18 from the party list, thereby ensuring a majority presence in parliament alongside three other parties that surpassed the legal threshold for representation (Oyunchimeg 2024). This distribution of seats underscores the diversity of representation in parliament, reflecting the electorate’s support for multiple political entities and ensuring a legislative body that is balanced and representative of the political spectrum. Over the past 34 years, various electoral systеms have been employed, including majoritarian voting systеms with single or multiple mandates and mixed systеms that combine majoritarian and proportional representation voting elements. Each systеm has its strengths and weaknesses. However, the criticism from both the public and political parties of the contemporary electoral systеm has resulted in frequent changes to it. Before the new systеm was introduced, the Mongolian parliament had maintained 76 seats since 1990. The number of seats in the parliament was increased by approximately 40 percent, from 76 to 126. Since 1990, Mongolia’s population has grown from 2.15 million to 3.5 million, an increase of about 40 percent. As a representative institution of the people, there has been significant debate in recent years regarding the potential expansion of the parliamentary seats. The proposed increase in seats has prompted a considerable number of individuals to seek election. In the first democratic election held after new democratic Constitution in 1992, only 293 individuals representing 10 parties and independents ran for the parliament. The 2024 Election saw the largest number of candidates to date, with the highest number of candidacies. A total of 372 individuals from 22 parties and coalitions contested the election through party lists, while 969 candidates ran in constituencies, resulting in a total of 1,341 candidates, marking a record high.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Mongolia and Asia