Topic: Democracy - CIAO Search Results

1. Empire Salon | William Smith | Oct 14 2020

Author:: William Smith
Publication Date:: 12-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: William Smith, a distinguished former student of Committee Board member Claes Ryn, has written an insightful book on the realistic and restrained foreign policy tradition of the United States. Smith highlights the great Harvard scholar, Irving Babbitt, with his clear understanding of the crooked timber of man -- especially when acting collectively -- which reduces moral inhibitions against violence. James Madison explained in Federalist 55, “Had every Athenian citizen been a Socrates; every Athenian assembly would still have been a mob.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Imperialism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2. Whom do African election campaigns contact? And does it matter?

Author:: Robert Mattes, Matthias Krönke, and Sarah J. Lockwood
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Canvassing is an important way in which political parties around the world raise awareness and connect with voters. Despite this, the literature on parties in new democracies, and Africa in particular, has tended to overlook this form of activity, focusing instead on vote buying, mass rallies, and meetings. In this paper, we use public opinion survey data from Afrobarometer and the Comparative National Elections Project to show that overall rates of canvassing in Africa are similar to other new, as well as many established, democracies. The data also challenge several dominant views of party campaigns in the Africanist literature. First, African parties do not concentrate primarily on turning out their base, rather than reaching across the partisan divide. Indeed, the opposite is the case. African parties expend more energy contacting nonpartisan independents and cross-partisans, and thus make a potentially meaningful contribution to the supply of multiparty competition. Second, the vast majority of contacts occur without any clientelist exchanges of material goods between parties and individual voters. And third, while incumbent parties enjoy canvassing advantages over opposition parties in around one-third of the surveyed countries, opposition parties (viewed collectively) match the party in power in terms of the ground game in another third, and enjoy higher rates of contact in yet another third.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Campaigning
Political Geography:: Africa

3. Generative AI, Democracy and Human Rights

Author:: David Evan Harris and Aaron Shull
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Disinformation is not new, but given how disinformation campaigns are constructed, there is almost no stage that will not be rendered more effective by the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI). Given the unsatisfactory nature of current tools to address this budding reality, disinformation, especially during elections, is set to get much, much worse. As these campaigns become more sophisticated and manipulative, the foreseeable consequence will be a further erosion of trust in institutions and a heightened disintegration of civic integrity, which in turn will jeopardize a host of human rights, including electoral rights and the right to freedom of thought. In this policy brief, David Evan Harris and Aaron Shull argue that policy makers must hold AI companies liable for the harms caused or facilitated by their products that could have been reasonably foreseen, act quickly to ban using AI to impersonate real persons or organizations, and require the use of watermarking or other provenance tools to allow people to distinguish between AI-generated and authentic content.
Topic:: Human Rights, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, Disinformation, Generative Models, and Freedom of Thought
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4. A battle against time – and against Putin’s Russia

Author:: Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: With Putin’s war against Ukraine about to enter its third year, the EU’s enlargement policy remains at the top of its foreign policy priorities, with the focus being on both Ukraine and Moldova. This is following the European Council’s decision to open accession negotiations with both countries. But where does this leave the countries of the Western Balkans and their very long journey towards the EU which began over 20 years ago? Will these countries’ hopes for much needed political momentum in their accession prospects be fulfilled during 2024, despite the repeated delays and the EU’s failure to respect its commitments to the region over the past few years? With elections taking place across Europe offering fertile ground for Russia to deploy its arsenal of disinformation tactics, time is not on the EU’s side. To counter Russian attempts to influence developments in the region, as well as to reverse the dangerous trend of backsliding in democratic and rule of law reforms, the EU will need to adopt a more robust, consistent and determined approach towards the Western Balkans. Without any further delay, it needs to set out a much needed geopolitical and security direction for its enlargement policies in the Western Balkans.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Rule of Law, Regional Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Balkans

5. Seeing Tunisia’s Civil Society During Un-civil Times

Author:: Larbi Sadiki and Layla Saleh
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Tunisia’s dramatic democratic reversals since July 2021 warrant an in-depth reflection on how and where its once-promising democratisation momentum went wrong. Much attention is given to the top-down demolition of democratic institutions by the country’s (democratically) elected President Kais Saied. However, just as the popular revolution that ousted the dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and the subsequent democratic transition was to a great extent a bottom-up process, so civil society too is an important piece of the de-democratisation puzzle. In a bid to compare and contrast trajectories of degeneration and regeneration, the paper explores the contributions and constraints of Tunisian civil society vis-à-vis Tunisia’s difficult experiment with democratisation.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Democracy, Institutions, and NGOs
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

6. Information Integrity and Information Pollution: Vulnerabilities and Impact on Social Cohesion and Democracy in Mexico

Author:: Anita Breuer
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Equal access to reliable information is essential for democracy and social cohesion. The rise of information pollution, particularly in digital spaces, poses significant challenges to democratic societies worldwide. While extensive research has focused on its impact in developed, English-speaking democracies, there is a gap in understanding its effects in younger democracies, conflict zones, and less developed contexts. This study fills that gap by analysing Mexico as a case study. Based on interviews with Mexican media professionals, public sector officials, academics and human rights defenders, the study provides insights on the root causes of the problem and and strategies to combat information pollution, safeguard democracy, and promote social cohesion, underscoring the urgency of proactive measures both within Mexico and on a global scale in Mexico, information pollution significantly threatens the country's social cohesion and democratic principles. Structural conditions like poverty, inequality, violence, corruption, and media landscape issues enable societal vulnerability to digital information pollution. Factors directly driving information pollution include the exploitation of digital spaces by drug cartels, divisive narratives against marginalised groups, an increasingly media-hostile environment as well as the incumbent government’s post-factual approach to reality and politics. Information pollution has fostered a polarised discours, contributed to eroding trust in traditional media and amplified identity-based societal cleavages. It weakens the deliberative, participatory and liberal dimensions of democracy dimensions by decreasing the quality of public debate, damaging civil society watchdog roles, and reducing government transparency and accountability. Recommendations for Mexico encompass enhancing public resilience to information through civic education and targeted communication campaigns, empowering media capacity, and fortifying an open data culture in the Mexican public sector. Internationally, efforts should address elite-driven information pollution by reinforcing independent accountability institutions and leveraging diplomatic and economic incentives against leaders attacking these institutions.
Topic:: Development, Democracy, Media, Social Cohesion, and Information
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

7. Episode 02: Consistent Partiality: U.S. Foreign Policy on Palestine-Israel

Author:: Sahar Aziz, Peter Beinart, and Sarah Whitson
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Although the Biden administration talks about supporting democracy and human rights, it has maintained unconditional US support for Israel even as human rights organizations label it an apartheid state. What are the political and ideological foundations of America’s hostility to Palestinian freedom? And what would it take to change them? Does the US’s unconditional support for Israel serve America’s national interests? Host Sahar Aziz addresses these questions with Professor Peter Beinart and human rights attorney Sarah Leah Whitson.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, Politics, Democracy, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

8. Foreign Interference Online: Where Disinformation Infringes on Freedom of Thought

Author:: Wesley Wark
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: “Foreign interference targeting democratic societies works not by the classic Orwellian formula of ruthless powers limiting sources of information and knowledge,” Wesley Wark writes, but by “multiplying and amplifying chosen channels of information, and attempting to corrupt the availability of true information in favour of that which is both false and harmful.” At their most intense, disinformation campaigns amount to “cognitive warfare, a hostile attempt to alter thinking.” In a social media–saturated world, these operations find many and diverse channels for disinformation’s spread, which depends on the inculcation of “fearful unknowing” in the targeted, often vulnerable, audience. A campaign’s objectives might be both direct and indirect: an aim to influence electoral outcomes could overlap with a broader goal to undermine confidence in democratic processes. Public attention to the issue of foreign state interference, as recently experienced in Canada and currently the subject of a judicial inquiry, is the first indicator that freedom of thought principles might be in play. Wark suggests ways to counter these campaigns, beginning with government taking the lead in enhancing public understanding of all national security threats, including those posed by disinformation.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Democracy, Internet, Social Media, Disinformation, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Canada and Global Focus

9. New Logics for Governing Human Discourse in the Online Era

Author:: Richard Reisman
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The democratization of access to online media tools is driving a transformation of human discourse that is disrupting freedom of thought. This shift in the flow of thought is being encoded into a global infrastructure dominated by commercial platform companies whose operations co-opt individual, collective and governmental agency. In this policy brief, Richard Reisman argues that attempts to govern these tools are relying on “yesterday’s logic.” The new logic, largely unrecognized, relates to acceleration of word-of-mouth propagation, much like rumouring, putting the listener’s freedom of impression, rather than the speaker’s freedom of expression, at the fore. Reisman writes that governance is needed to restore individual and community agency, which could re-energize the vision of technology as “bicycles for our minds,” enabling individuals and society to flourish and maintain resilience in an increasingly challenging world.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, Internet, Emerging Technology, and Discourse
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10. Credit Rating Agencies versus the ‘Pink Tide’: Lessons from the Experiences of Brazil and Argentina

Author:: Pedro Lange Machado
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This paper examines the behaviour of credit rating agencies (CRAs) during the ebbing ‘pink tide’. It claims that the actions of S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch contributed to dismantling left-wing regimes in Latin America, to the benefit of their right-wing competitors. The methodology draws on case studies of Brazil and Argentina, where the governments of Dilma Rousseff and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner were replaced by those of Michel Temer and Mauricio Macri, respectively. The research is based on sovereign ratings, reports and press releases the agencies issued during those transitions, which are analysed in the light of critical theories of their modus operandi and confronted with the political processes unfolding in both countries. This allows us to draw conclusions that are consistent with the presented argument, thereby contributing to advance the research agenda around the CRAs and to shed light on Brazil and Argentina’s recent critical presidential transitions.
Topic:: Democracy, Economy, Credit Rating Agencies, and Pink Tide
Political Geography:: Brazil, Argentina, and South America

11. Operationalizing the Chain of Harm: Co-design Workshop Guidance

Author:: Lisa Reppell and Matt Bailey
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: The methodological notes below provide guidance for the implementation of the International Foundation for Electoral System's (IFES's) Chain of Harm to enhance the responsiveness of information integrity programming to the needs and unique circumstances of traditionally marginalized communities. Organizations within the democratic, rights, and governance (DRG) community of practice will be able to consult these notes to replicate, build, and design programming. By following the recommendations outlined in this resource, organizations can plan and execute primary source research on information integrity issues, effectively facilitate program design workshops with relevant local partners, and implement and track new, research-based program interventions. This resource builds on and complements the methodology outlined in IFES's publication, The Chain of Harm: Designing Evidence-based, Locally Led Information Integrity Programming. It begins by describing how to collect the primary research that serves as the foundation of programming through surveys and focus group discussions. Guidance for practitioners to facilitate the Co-design Workshop follows before turning to best practices for program implementation and monitoring and evaluation. As the Chain of Harm centers the perspectives of traditionally marginalized groups, accessibility guidance is included in line with this ethos. This practical use guide is derived from IFES data collected during two pilot implementations of the Chain of Harm in Iraq and Guyana between 2021 and 2023 with support from the U.S. Department of State's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor. In both countries, IFES' Center for Applied Research and Learning implemented the approach in close collaboration with local partners. While these methodological notes may often reference collaborations between international and local partners, a local organization implementing directly may also leverage such an approach.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, and Information Integrity
Political Geography:: Iraq, Guyana, and United States of America

12. Testing Taiwan’s Democracy

Author:: Dimitar Gueorguiev
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Dimitar D. Gueorguiev, an associate professor of political science at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs and director of Chinese studies at Syracuse University, asserts that “Taiwan’s new government faces rough seas ahead” and with the loss of the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) legislative majority, new President Lai Ching-te “needs to seek compromise with a divided government...”
Topic:: Government, Elections, Democracy, and Lai Ching-te
Political Geography:: Taiwan and Asia

13. The Evasion of Liberal Democracy in the Proxy Warfare Narrative

Author:: Mansoor Moaddel
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Much of the thinking about the current political instability in the Middle East has been shaped by sectarianism and proxy warfare between the Islamic Republic and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is said that the 1979 Iranian Revolution triggered this conflict and pressed on through the mo- bilization of the proxies connected to these regimes. This mobilization was reinforced by the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and the outbreak of the Arab Spring movement in 2011.1 In this narrative, the members of the ordinary public appear as passive bystanders in the making of their country’s future. Considering the current shift in values among the Middle Eastern publics toward secular politics, gender equality, and expressive individualism, this argument tends to obscures the region’s political reality.2 It is true that the ruling mullahs in Iran revived sectarianism. They created the Lebanese Hezbollah in the early 1980s, virtually all the Shia political parties in Iraq before the 2003 invasion, and, more recently, the militant Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah and a militia in Syria to defend the Assad regime. Although Yemeni Ansar Allah, known as the Houthis, belong to a different Shia sect and their raison d’être is a product of recent history, the militant group has lately received extensive aid from the Islamic Republic. Expanding its global influence, Iran also founded Al-Mustafa International University in Qom in 2008. By 2020, the university had 45,000 students and 3,500 teaching staff, ran 50 journals, administered 31 educational institutions, established an online school with 20,000 students from 132 nations, and had produced 40,000 graduates—many of whom served in the Fatemiyoun and Zainebiyon brigades in Syria.3 Moreover, to display its commitment to anti-Western, Islamic supranationalism, every year the regime organized demonstrations against the United States and Israel among Iranian pilgrims during the rites of Hajj in Mecca, Saudi Arabia.4 In 1987, these demonstrations turned deadly as violence broke out between the pilgrims and Saudi security forces during which hundreds were killed.5 In a belligerent response, Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic Republic, called Saudi leadership “bloodthirsty,” “tyrants,” and “American lackeys.”6
Topic:: Sectarianism, Democracy, Rivalry, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

14. Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa: Can the African Union and Regional Organizations Defend and Consolidate Democracy?

Author:: Joshua O. Bolarinwa
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: This research evaluates the contemporary increase in military coups in Africa and analyses the effectiveness of the African Union (AU) and other regional institutions in safeguarding and promoting democratic government following existing frameworks and policies. The African Union’s framework for Unconstitutional Changes of Government (UCG) and its subsequent execution have faced significant problems in response to the recent revival. The African Union has garnered commendation for its stance in opposition to military coups. Nevertheless, it has been noted that the organization has exhibited inadequate engagement and delayed responsiveness in addressing instances of the unconstitutional exercise of power. Numerous historical figu-res have exhibited a proclivity for disregarding established institutions that have played a pivotal role in facilitating their ascent to positions of authority.
Topic:: Democracy, Coup, African Union, Military, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:: Africa

15. Empowering Communities in Kosovo: The Vital Role of Local Government in Advancing Education and Curbing Deviant Behavior

Author:: Islam Hasani and Ferdi Kamberi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Local communities play an essential role in developing and organizing their lives for joint betterment. Local self-government, through local democratic mechanisms, involves the community as part of the public policies, showing the sign of the development of the local democracy. This research aims to analyze the communication and collaboration between the local government and local communities in Kosovo, focusing on their role in the development of education and the reduction of deviant behavior, intending to create a better social environment for the community. The research methodology employed for this paper is as follows: library research, qualitative research, and the analysis of the laws in power related to the topic. There will be field research working with two focus groups belonging to the municipality of Prishtina, considering their ethnic component. General results show that communities are still in the development and organization phase, whereas their participation in the process of public policies is still under the average level. Social audits can be mechanisms for development, organizing the community, and involvement in local government policies.
Topic:: Development, Education, Democracy, Public Policy, Behavior, Empowerment, Communities, and Local Self-Government
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

16. Russia’s presidential election: Signalling repression and demobilizing opposition

Author:: Margarita Zavadskaya
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Autocrats such as Vladimir Putin use elections strategically to demonstrate their capability to secure the necessary votes. This primarily benefits the regime’s inner circle and rent-seeking elites who rely on Putin’s presidency for their wealth. Although a notable proportion of the Russian population regards the election and Putin’s leadership as legitimate, their support for Russia’s military actions in Ukraine is waning. Only a slim majority backs the continuation of the conflict. Despite the oppressive political environment, opposition initiatives such as “Noon against Putin” manifest ongoing resistance. These actions were reflected in vote tallies abroad, where support for Putin was dramatically lower than in Russia. The post-election period is likely to see the persistence of Russia’s current domestic and foreign policies, with the potential for increased societal and economic tensions. The declining support for the war could further complicate the regime’s efforts to maintain a unified front. This could potentially impact Russia’s global standing and internal stability.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

17. Indonesia’s growing clout: Domestic, regional, and global drivers

Author:: Bart Gaens and Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: While Indonesia still stands out as one of the stronger democracies in Southeast Asia, its democratic credentials remain flawed. Nevertheless, public support for the current administration has remained high thanks to sustained economic growth, welfare measures and large infrastructure projects. Indonesia has continued to bolster its international status through ASEAN, even if its position is one among equals. Within the organization, Jakarta has aimed to play the role of democracy promoter and bridge-builder. While China’s influence in the country has grown, Indonesia has sought a middle ground within the great-power competition, also pursuing partnerships with European countries, Japan, Russia, and the Gulf countries in order to diversify its political and economic relations. This offers opportunities for the EU. However, Europe’s declining image in Indonesia, colonial history and perceived double standards are obstacles to strengthening EU-Indonesia relations. Challenges remain for Indonesia in its quest to become a global player. The country will need to contribute solutions to both regional and global issues, and its hedging game and strategic autonomy in foreign-policy choices may become complicated due to increasing global expectations and responsibilities.
Topic:: Democracy, Geopolitics, Economic Policy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

18. Russia’s wartime ideology: Radicalization, rent-seeking and securing the dictator

Author:: Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Anti-Western propaganda and the indoctrination of citizens, especially young people, have gradually intensified since the early days of Putin’s rule. However, their radicalization during the war is indicative of the regime’s need for manipulative control rather than reflective of broad support for the regime’s worldview. The most significant shift in the Kremlin’s wartime propaganda has been its codification in school education since the summer of 2022. This timing reveals more about the regime’s need to justify the war and its consequences than it does about any consistent long-term strategy. Key actors behind the ideological codification are opportunistically exploiting the current context. Meanwhile, ideological radicals face little opposition, as most citizens show limited interest in their activities. Despite the regime’s indoctrination practices, the indifference of society suggests that the conditions for a strong anti-Western consensus after Putin will be weak. Such a consensus can only emerge if the future regime, like the current one, is able to maintain satisfactory material conditions and a tolerable daily life alongside its ideological views, whatever they may be.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Radicalization, Democracy, Ideology, Post-Soviet Space, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

19. Between Tradition and Transformation: The Impact of Illiberal Populism on Georgia’s Democratic Aspirations

Author:: Giorgi Iakobishvili
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The article examines the role of Georgian far-right illiberal populist groups in Georgian politics and their influence on Georgia’s foreign policy and the ongoing democratization process, emphasizing Euroscepticism, liberal institutional development, and the pro-Russian narrative. Using qualitative research methodology, we analyzed the programs, manifestos, and public speeches of well-known groups active in Georgian politics, such as People's Power, Georgian March, Georgian Idea, Unity, Essence, Hope (ERI), and Alliance of Patriots of Georgia. Analysis of the mentioned material, as well as various scientific studies, shows that the discourse of these groups is dominated by xenophobic, nationalist, populist, and racist rhetoric, which represents a significant challenge to Georgia’s European integration path and in the direction of democratization of its governance system. In the long term, we concluded that the existence and development of these illiberal populist actors threaten Georgia’s aspirations for European integration and democratic development. This study contributes to a broader discourse about populism and illiberal views in the Georgian reality, focusing on the influence of these ideologies on the formation of the country’s foreign policy and orientation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democracy, Populism, Domestic Politics, Illiberalism, and Euroskepticism
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

20. Georgia’s government is playing with fire: Internal polarisation invites external interference

Author:: Sinikukka Saari
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Georgia’s government distrusts the West and democratic institutions – despite formally supporting Euro-Atlantic integration. It seeks to merge transactional foreign policy with ultra-conservative values and illiberalism. Current policies are polarising the nation, alienating the West, and making Georgia vulnerable to Russia’s interference.
Topic:: Democracy, Institutions, Polarization, Post-Soviet Space, Euroskepticism, and Eastern Neighborhood
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

21. Majority-building in the next European Parliament: The case for a more formal coalition

Author:: Andreas T. Müller
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The openness of the European People’s Party (EPP) to some far-right parties in the European Parliament has led to mistrust and conflict within the political centre. A written coalition agreement could remedy this – and even improve democracy at the EU level.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, European Parliament, and Coalition
Political Geography:: Europe

22. Georgia at a Crossroads: An Increasingly Illiberal Domestic Policy is Becoming an Obstacle to EU Accession

Author:: Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Georgia faces a defining moment. The recent adoption of a Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, modelled on Russian legislation, clashes with Georgia’s goal of EU accession. The law allows for extensive control and elimination of civil society and critical voices, which contradicts the democratic principles required for EU membership. The ruling Georgian Dream party nonetheless claims that EU accession, a goal shared by most Georgians, remains achievable by 2030. As the parliamentary elections on 26 October approach, the party seeks to maintain its grip on power by projecting an image of commitment to democracy and EU integration. But opposition parties, civil society organisations and the media have rallied against the law, which many believe reflects a deeper issue: the efforts of a small elite around billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili to consolidate power and push Georgia towards authoritarianism under the guise of democratic governance. An increasing alignment with Russia has accompanied this trend, potentially enabling Russia to exert some level of control over Georgia through a local proxy instead of direct military intervention. This policy brief argues that the EU should implement the steps that High Representative Josep Borrell announced after the Foreign Affairs Council on 24 June 2024. In light of further developments, consideration should be given to additional measures, including targeted EU sanctions on anti-democratic actors similar to those imposed by the US. Continued EU support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russian aggression will also be vital for the sovereignty of both Ukraine and Georgia, as well as for regional stability.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Regional Integration, Domestic Policy, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Georgia

23. Defence of Democracy: a Discussion on Democracy and the Path Ahead for a Culture of Participation

Author:: Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the occasion of the European Commission’s release of the Defence of Democracy package (DoD) on 12 December 2023, the Egmont Institute – together with the G1000 – organised a debate focused specifically on the recommendation on the participation of citizens and civil society organisations in public policy-making. As part of Egmont’s wider outreach mandate under the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU and building upon G1000’s longstanding expertise as an innovator in the Belgian democratic landscape and beyond, the purpose was to explore the road ahead for this recommendation, both under the Belgian Presidency , as well as beyond by adoption of the next strategic agenda by the June European Council and the consequential Commission priorities.
Topic:: Civil Society, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

24. Promoting European Democracy and Solidarity in a Wider EU

Author:: Lila Djait
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with the support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from European Union (EU) institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The third round of foresight workshop and working dinner reflected on ‘Promoting European Democracy and Solidarity in a wider EU’. In recent years, the European Union has faced a pivotal juncture in its history, grappling with internal and external pressures that test its foundational principles of democracy, rule of law, and solidarity. The discourse surrounding the enlargement of the EU, adherence to the rule of law, fiscal stewardship, and the need for a cohesive strategy to confront emerging geopolitical challenges underscores the imperative for a strategic re-evaluation.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Economy, Solidarity, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe

25. EU Elections: National Democracy at Its Cornerstone?

Author:: Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the eve of the European elections, those who keep a keen eye already know that a big turnaround of the European hemicycle is to be expected, with more than 50% being newly elected. In a recent article, the secondary place occupied by the European elections was highlighted; in Belgium they can even be said to only rank as tertiary due to its collision with national and regional elections on the same day. Although up to 8 member states will see both national and European elections in 2024, this very much gives a unique context to the EU elections in Belgium. Its conclusions however were not new: although the federal government presented itself as radically pro-European, currently holding the Council of the EU’s rotating Presidency, in Belgium as well as abroad, the European election is inherently still very much national in nature: the limited space that is left for it between the other campaigns becomes confused through both themes and politicians being presented at other levels than they (currently) sit.
Topic:: Economics, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

26. The US Should Support the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan

Author:: Luke Coffey
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: More than three years ago, the Taliban swept back into power in Afghanistan after a two-decade insurgency against the internationally backed Afghan government. Since then, the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated considerably. The country faces an acute humanitarian crisis affecting millions and has once again become a haven for transnational terrorism. This tragic outcome was not inevitable, and it is worth reviewing recent history. Starting in 2014, United States troops in Afghanistan were no longer leading daily combat operations but were instead primarily training the Afghan military. When President Donald Trump entered office in January 2017, there were only 11,000 US troops in Afghanistan conducting the counterterrorism and training mission. This was down from a peak of 100,000 troops in 2010–11. In February 2020, Trump agreed to a deal with the Taliban that would have seen the phased withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. This agreement was the starting point of the Afghan government’s collapse and the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021. In January 2021, when President Joe Biden entered office, there were only 2,500 US troops in Afghanistan. Crucially, the US still provided close air support for Afghan forces. While this was not enough troops to ensure that the Afghan government could control the whole country, it was enough for the US to meet its counterterrorism objectives and prevent the Taliban from taking power. Instead of canceling the flawed withdrawal agreement with the Taliban—something that was in Biden’s power to do—the president merely delayed the date from May to September. On July 2 the US departed the strategically located and geopolitically important Bagram Airfield in the middle of the night without warning its Afghan partners. Around the same time, the US stopped providing Afghan troops with close air support. By the end of July, almost all US and international forces had left the country. On August 6, 2021, the Taliban captured Zaranj, the capital of Nimroz Province. This was the first time in almost 20 years that the terror group had successfully captured and held one of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals. Soon after, government-controlled capitals started falling like dominos. The Taliban finally captured Kabul on August 15. By September 11—the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks—the Taliban controlled more of Afghanistan than it did on that day in 2001. Since the Taliban’s return to power, only one credible and non-extremist group has been willing to take up arms in opposition: the National Resistance Front (NRF) of Afghanistan, led by Ahmad Massoud. Based in the Panjshir Province and operating in more than a dozen other provinces, the NRF has continued to fight against the Taliban against all odds and without any international support. Though there is no longer an American presence in Afghanistan, the country remains geopolitically important. Afghanistan’s location in the heart of the Eurasian landmass has made it strategically significant in great power competition throughout the nineteenth, twentieth, and twenty-first centuries. There is no reason to assume this will change anytime soon. The Biden administration’s actions have left the US without many good policy options in Afghanistan. Furthermore, many Afghans remain distrustful of the White House. But a new US administration will have an opportunity to reset American policy toward the country.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Terrorism, Taliban, Democracy, and National Resistance Front
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

27. How the US Can Beat the Kremlin in Moldova

Author:: Peter Rough and Luke Coffey
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine was a seismic event for the Republic of Moldova. The war upended Chișinău’s long-held belief that constitutional neutrality would protect the country. Additionally, the invasion focused Brussels’s attention on Moldova, which the European Union has often regarded as an afterthought. Moscow’s war catalyzed Moldova’s politics and forced Chișinău and Brussels to make fundamental choices about their future relationship on an accelerated timetable. If Russia hadn’t launched its full-scale invasion, the EU would have probably not invited Moldova to open accession talks so quickly. Important elections in Moldova and a perilous situation in Ukraine ensure that 2024 will be a pivotal year on Chișinău’s path toward Western integration. United States and European policymakers should proactively shape an outcome that benefits both Moldovans and the Euro-Atlantic community.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Organization, Democracy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Moldova

28. Turkey’s New State in the Making: Transformations in Legality, Economy, and Coercion

Author:: Nurhayat Kavrak
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Turkey’s political history has seen recurring shifts between democratic ideals and authoritarian tendencies, notably during the two decades of the Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) rule. This transition marked a departure from a relatively democratic façade that emerged in response to the European Union (EU) accession process towards a more authoritarian regime characterized by increased government control and curtailment of civil liberties.1 It is a shift accentuated after the 2013 Gezi protests which culminated in a significant regime change in 2018. This transformation was marked by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of power through constitutional amendments, leading to the transition from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential system. To comprehend this transformation, it is imperative to examine the interplay between economic dynamics and the state within the neo-liberal capitalist system, aligning with Poulantzas’ observations on global trends.2 It can be argued that the accumulation and state crises, exacerbated by the 2008 global economic crisis, have contributed to Turkey’s authoritarian shift in parallel with global developments. Originating from a 2018 workshop at Middle East Technical University, Turkey’s New State in the Making: Transformations in Legality, Economy, and Coercion provides a historical-sociological perspective on Turkey’s state crises, serving as a vital resource for comprehending authoritarianism and class-state relations and offering an in-depth exploration of the AKP regime’s transformation, presenting a continuum of its history rather than a rigid division between democratic and authoritarian phases.
Topic:: International Relations, History, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Economy, Book Review, AKP, and Coercion
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and European Union

29. Charting the Radical Right’s Influence on EU Foreign Policy

Author:: Rosa Balfour and Stefan Lehne
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The political landscape in the European Union (EU) is changing rapidly. For decades, the traditional mainstream parties of the center right and center left have been losing ground, while antiestablishment parties have been gaining support. According to research by the University of Amsterdam, 32 percent of voters opted for antiestablishment parties in 2021, up from 12 percent in the early 1990s.1 Radical-right parties make up about half of this share, and their support has risen faster than that of any other group. Many of the fourteen parties examined in this study have achieved vote shares of 20 percent or more. The radical right is now in government, or supports the government, in Finland, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden. In the Netherlands, it is likely that Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV) will be part of a governing coalition. In other countries, these parties have become the leading opposition groups. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has been carefully preparing to win the 2027 presidential election. Setbacks for the radical right in Poland and Spain in the second half of 2023 have shown that the relentless rise of these parties is not a foregone conclusion. However, current polling for several national elections and the June 2024 European Parliament elections indicates a strong likelihood of their continuing electoral success.2 Chega (Enough), a recently established party that shot to 18 percent of the vote in Portugal’s March 2024 election, ended the country’s exceptionalism as one of the few European nations without a right-wing populist party.3 The June 2024 Belgian federal election may see the Flemish nationalist party Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest), which so far has been strong in Flanders but kept out of national politics, break through at the federal level. Polling for Austria’s September 2024 parliamentary election suggests a surge in support for the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ).4 In contrast with populism, which has a thin ideology focused mainly on fomenting the anger of the so-called pure people against corrupt elites and which has risen on both the left and the right of the political spectrum, the radical-right parties of the 2020s have a more distinct ideological profile.5 All have national specificities, such as rural origins in Northern Europe or ethnonationalism in Central Europe. Several parties are rooted in postwar fascism, such as the FPÖ, RN, Brothers of Italy (FdI), the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), and the Sweden Democrats (SD). For some groups, strong connections with society and well-developed party structures compensated for their marginal impact in national politics. Before its landslide victory in Italy’s 2022 parliamentary election, support for FdI hovered at around 5 percent, as it did for the party’s predecessor throughout the period since World War II.6 Other parties, such as Hungary’s Fidesz, gained ground as classic populist or even mainstream parties and benefited from an aura of respectability even as they shifted toward ethnonationalist or nativist positions. Since the 1990s, liberal-democratic parties have started to adopt some of the ideas of the radical right while keeping the parties themselves out of government. In the 2000s, the radical right became normalized, in some countries becoming part of the political mainstream. During this process, as political scientists Cas Mudde and Jan-Werner Müller have argued, liberal-democratic parties have shifted toward the radical right in the hope—mostly in vain—of keeping their traditional electorates. Yet, in practice, this approach has led voters to prefer the real radical right to its imitators. In other words, the tactic of chasing the radical right has not paid off electorally. Voters have moved toward the radical right as a consequence, not as a cause, of liberal-democratic parties’ attempts to contain it.7 Today, the far right is dominated by the radical right, which, unlike the extreme right, accepts the essence of democracy but rejects its liberal elements: minority rights, the rule of law, and the separation of powers.8 The radical-right parties selected for this study all share deep antimigration sentiments, often determined by race or religion; a nationalism that makes these parties Euroskeptic and opposed to what they see as a Brussels-based dictatorship; and skepticism of climate change policies. Many of these parties also espouse deeply conservative family values that go against women’s and LGBTQ rights. Foreign policy is usually not the strong suit of these parties, apart from their keen interest in the external dimension of migration policy. These parties pay close attention to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine but are sharply divided on this issue, with positions ranging from deep mistrust of Russia to close alignment with the Kremlin’s arguments. A future Donald Trump administration could lead to new divisions in the EU, as some member states are likely to align with the United States under any circumstances. This would mean that many of the EU’s current foreign policy positions, such as support for Ukraine, would come to an end. As radical-right parties rise to prominence at the national and the EU level, they are developing views on a range of foreign policy issues, building increasingly influential international networks and think tanks, and learning from each other’s successful tactics in solidifying their control of the state and propagating their values.9 For some radical-right parties that have been established in government, such as Fidesz and, until October 2023, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, the upgrading of foreign policy on their political agendas can be inferred by the fact that all diplomatic postings in the EU are political appointments. Hungary’s foreign policy machinery is under the direct control of the prime minister.10 Diplomatic colleagues of the Hungarian representatives in Brussels know that the country’s negotiating positions are micromanaged in Budapest.11 Other countries, such as Italy and Finland, have chosen to rely on the credibility of career diplomats to navigate the Brussels machinery, preferring compromise over confrontation and isolation. For a long time, European politicians and EU institutions have assumed the radical right could be contained. Now, the challenge of the radical right needs to be addressed more seriously. Just as this phenomenon has eroded democracy and the rule of law in some EU member states, so foreign policy may become affected at a time when collective action is most needed to address international issues. As the radical right challenges the EU’s attempts to navigate a dangerous world, European politics can no longer afford complacency.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, European Union, Democracy, and Far Right
Political Geography:: Europe, France, and Germany

30. South Africa’s Cyber Strategy Under Ramaphosa: Limited Progress, Low Priority

Author:: Joe Devanny and Russell Buchan
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: During the decades of apartheid, South Africa was an international pariah. Since the country transitioned to majority rule in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated politics, and the ANC has itself transitioned from a national liberation movement to a party of government. Domestically, South African cyber strategy should be seen as part of the ANC’s wider political challenge of trying to deliver economic growth, development, and prosperity. Over thirty years, the ANC has struggled to deliver on this agenda in a profoundly unequal society with infrastructure and institutions that have weakened particularly over the past fifteen years. Alongside confronting domestic challenges, the ANC has also tried to reshape South Africa’s global role. This was perhaps most visible under its first president, Nelson Mandela (1994–1999), but it was arguably pursued most systematically under Mandela’s successor, Thabo Mbeki (1999–2008). This reorientation of South Africa in the world was an ambitious and complex project, the foundations of which were the country’s leading role in its region and continent as well as its ties within the wider Global South. The project entailed tensions between the progressive promotion of human rights and freedoms, on the one hand, and the cultivation of instrumental relations with authoritarian and repressive states, on the other. These tensions continue to affect South African foreign policy, including its cyber diplomacy. South Africa identifies cybersecurity as a key national priority and has to this end adopted a national cybersecurity strategy and established a military Cyber Command. The reality, however, is that other issues have been consistently ranked above cybersecurity, such as addressing corruption, poverty, racial and social injustice, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Cybersecurity has therefore not been seen as a high priority by successive South African governments. This has left Cyber Command underresourced and unmotivated. This deprioritization means that South Africa is unlikely to emerge as a prominent military or intelligence cyber power anytime soon. The wider lack of national prioritization will also make it harder for so-called like-minded states—which are bound together by a mutual respect for democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—to form an effective partnership with South Africa on the topic of cybersecurity. South Africa’s approach to international cyber governance debates has been cautious and noncommittal, reflecting cyber diplomacy’s relatively low priority in its national strategy. What position South Africa takes in cyber debates is, however, of keen interest to the international community. An important question is whether South Africa will support the existing multistakeholder approach to cyber governance that is championed by like-minded states or join China and Russia in their efforts to recalibrate this approach and push for greater state control over cyberspace. Indeed, under President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa has not yet published its national position explaining how international law applies to cyberspace. A related question is whether South Africa will join like-minded states in elaborating how existing international law applies to cyberspace or side with China and Russia to campaign for new, bespoke international law (for example, treaties) to regulate this domain. When examining these questions, it is important to recognize the context of the ANC’s long-standing ties with Russia, both during its thirty years in government and in its previous decades struggling for national liberation. This is helpful for understanding South Africa’s interactions with Brazil, Russia, India, and China (which form the BRICS bloc with South Africa) and forecasting its future positions in cyber governance debates. For example, South Africa has been reluctant to unambiguously condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and it appears to have supported Moscow by covertly supplying it with weapons. In the longer term, South Africa’s positions in cyber diplomacy debates will likely be shaped by trends in both domestic politics—such as the ANC’s waning electoral performance—and the success of digital development. In this context, it is perhaps advisable for like-minded states, such as the United States, to focus on cyber capacity-building assistance and ensure that these efforts play into the wider development agenda in South Africa.
Topic:: Corruption, Poverty, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, and Racial Justice
Political Geography:: Africa, Iran, and South Africa

31. Latin America’s New Right Wings: Shifting Ideologies, Transnational Ties

Author:: Ernesto Bohoslavsky and Magdalena Broquetas
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: New far-right forces pose a growing threat to democracy across Latin America and the Caribbean. Read more in the Spring 2024 issue of the NACLA Report on the Americas.
Topic:: Climate Change, Democracy, Violence, Far Right, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

32. The Far-Right Tide Reaches Uruguay

Author:: Magdalena Broquetas and Gerardo Caetano
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A new radical right with links to the dictatorship has made unprecedented gains. So far, the country’s strong democracy has tempered its worst impacts.
Topic:: Democracy, Domestic Politics, Ideology, and Far Right
Political Geography:: South America and Uruguay

33. Tunisia: Public Opinion Report 2023

Author:: Arab Barometer
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: Over the past dozen years, Tunisia has experienced dramatic political change. In 2011, the Jasmine Revolution led to the fall of its long-standing leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, ushering in a period of political instability. Following the rewriting of the constitution, free and fair elections were held but yielded only weak and largely ineffective governments. Although Tunisians enjoyed far greater political rights, economically the country regressed. A decade after the revolution, GDP per capita had declined significantly. Stories of corruption within government institutions remained common, yielding an increasingly frustrated public. Elections may give voters a say, but the outcomes of the system often appeared no better than in the days of Ben Ali. Citizens demanded radical change and looked for a leader who they believed could deliver actual results. In the 2019 presidential elections, many Tunisians turned to Kaïs Saïed as a solution. Saïed ran a populist campaign as a political outsider, calling for ending corruption and reforms to the electoral system. In the final round of voting, he captured nearly three-quarters of the vote for an overwhelming victory and strong electoral mandate. In July 2021, Saïed dismissed the prime minister and suspended parliament. Ruling by decree, many members of the judiciary were dismissed and many opposition politicians were arrested. Despite international criticism of these actions, results from the 2021 Arab Barometer demonstrated that most Tunisians were in favor of his actions.1 Just three months after the events of July 25, 2021, most Tunisians had confidence in the president, a majority were optimistic about their economic future for the first time in years, and most believed the government was finally tackling the problem of corruption. In short, many Tunisians had hope for their country’s future. In late 2023, Tunisians remained more optimistic than they had been before the election of Saïed, but Arab Barometer’s survey suggests that some are starting to lose hope. Promises of economic improvements have not been realized—just one-in-ten rate the economy as good, which is largely unchanged since 2013. Economic optimism has also fallen, dropping by 14 points since 2021. During this period, hunger has also increased dramatically, with twothirds of Tunisians saying they have gone without food at least once in the previous month. Moreover, the most common perception is that government mismanagement is the source of food insecurity. Views of most political institutions are relatively weak. Just over a third have confidence in the government while less than a quarter trust parliament. However, trust in President Saïed remains strong, with about three-quarters expressing confidence in their leader. Still, this level is a six point decrease from 2021.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Migration, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, Freedom, and Gender
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

34. Mauritania: Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:: Sahel Foundation
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: Mauritania has begun a new phase of peaceful rotation of power, being an embodiment of democracy. This democratic transition has been seen through the country’s last government. Therefore, we observe the rising trend of citizens’ trust in the current government. Nine percent of Mauritanians say they trust the government to a great extent, and more than a quarter (27 percent) say they trust it. In contrast, 38 percent say they have little trust in the government, while nearly one-fifth (22 percent) have no trust in their government at all. In order to increase citizens’ trust in the government, it may be worthwhile to enhance communication between the government and citizens and transparently explain decisions and plans. Moreover, it could be important to that end to improve the quality of public services such as health, education, and infrastructure; strengthen the role of citizens in decision-making and participation in the political process; and take effective measures to combat corruption and promote good governance.
Topic:: Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, and Freedom
Political Geography:: Africa and Mauritania

35. Morocco: Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:: Arab Barometer
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: Morocco has endured multiple crises in recent years including the Coronavirus pandemic and the earthquake that hit the country on September 9, 2023. The aftermath of these crises produces what could be described as two Moroccos: one for the wealthier and better educated, another for the poorer and less educated. Moroccans are clearly divided in their views of almost all issues based on their socioeconomic status (SES). Economic pressure persists, with only a third of Moroccans rating their economy positively. While optimism about the future of the economy has increased, it is largely driven by those with a higher socioeconomic status. Their less-fortunate compatriots are far less optimistic and more concerned about increasing inequality and food insecurity. Trust in the Moroccan government remains relatively low, but trust in parliament, regional government, judiciary, and civil society organizations has increased. Still, those struggling financially tend to be less trusting of all these bodies. Similarly, satisfaction with government performance on economic issues is low, especially among the poor. Moroccans are more satisfied with the provision of certain services, including security and infrastructure. On the other hand, education in particular is among the public services in which Moroccans exhibit the lowest levels of satisfaction. Corruption remains a major concern, with the government seen as not doing enough to combat it. This view is especially true among people with lower socioeconomic status. Wealthier and more educated Moroccans are more positive in their rating of the government’s work on combating corruption. However, many Moroccans are resorting to bribery or connection to navigate the bureaucracy. Economic conditions and corruption are causing Moroccans to consider emigrating. Youth and those facing financial pressure are far more likely to have a desire to leave their country, mainly in pursuit of better economic opportunities. Western countries remain the preferred destination for most of the potential migrants in Morocco, many of whom are willing to leave even if they did not have the required documents to do so. While support for democracy has fluctuated over the past few years, recent trends suggest an increase in support for democratic governance. Moroccans acknowledge that democratic systems have their shortcomings, yet they maintain a belief that democracy is preferable to other forms of governance and particularly support a multi-party parliamentary system.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, and Freedom
Political Geography:: North Africa and Morocco

36. Bolivia: desk study on aid and democracy

Author:: Swetha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This study is part of a series of ten country-focused desk studies on aid and democracy prepared under the project The state and statebuilding in the Global South. They are prepared under the guidance of Rachel M. Gisselquist as background to a broader research effort on aid, governance, and democracy promotion. The studies follow a common template and each draws on the research literature and selected cross-national sources to discuss regime type and timeline, findings from the literature on democracy/democratization, findings from the literature on aid and democracy/democratization, aid flows and sources, and specific aid examples. This study addresses the case of Bolivia, with focus on the post-Cold War period.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Governance, Democracy, and Post-Cold War
Political Geography:: South America and Bolivia

37. Overcoming digital threats to democracy

Author:: Lydia Khalil
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The internet was once considered an open door to democracy and liberty. Today, it is seen as an agent of democratic erosion. Digital challenges to democracy include the scale and spread of disinformation and misinformation, the increase in polarisation and extremism that are facilitated and escalated online, and inadequate regulation. Digital platforms are increasingly perceived by the public as serving the needs and interests of the powerful rather than the public good. Average users have few means to influence key decisions and debates about how digital technologies are used and developed. The rules of the digital sphere — whether made by tech companies, regulators, or politicians — often lack public legitimacy. Applying deliberative democracy principles — where small but representative groups of people make decisions after deliberating on issues in depth — can help address the challenges of legitimacy and generate broadly acceptable solutions to the problems that bedevil online spaces and challenge democracy.
Topic:: Democracy, Disinformation, Polarization, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. Resistance to Authoritarianism: Lessons Learned from Brazilian Civil Society

Author:: Melina Risso, Renata Avelar Gianini, and Camila Nadalini de Godoy
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: This study aims to encourage debate and strengthen democratic organizations and civil society that defend civic space against attempts to weaken the system of checks and balances that sustain democracy, silence dissenting voices and ideas, co-opt law enforcement agencies, and dismantle public policies to consolidate an authoritarian state. It was developed based on a comprehensive literature review, media coverage analysis, and 18 in-depth interviews with key actors involved in the study’s topics, including civil society, funders, and government officials. The work is divided into six parts. The first part presents the definitions used to develop this study and examines the political context. The following four parts analyze four cases encompassing the main tools used by civil society to defend democracy and combat democratic erosion, highlighting the results achieved. The sixth and final part details essential points of attention for maintaining, strengthening, and continuously promoting a robust civic space and a solid democracy in Brazil. As the authoritarian threats to closing the space for civil society participation are still present nationally and internationally, the initiatives cited here are expected to inspire and guide future initiatives of resistance and protection of civic space in promoting democracy.
Topic:: Civil Society, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Civil Resistance
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

39. Europe’s Democracy Catch-22

Author:: Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: The dominant, epoch-making European storyline is now clear: the rise of the far right threatens the European Union (EU)’s future and democracy. This standard view is expressed in countless opinion pieces and political speeches and is now reshaping both national and EU-level politics. Even if the far right did not surge quite as dramatically as widely predicted in either the European Parliament or French parliamentary elections, its growing popularity clearly represents a pressing challenge both at the EU level and in national politics (Ash 2024). However, the continent’s predicament might be more accurately described as a more subtle and complex conundrum: in the immediate short term, what is good for the EU integration project might not be good for democracy, and vice versa. The EU and national governments have been struggling with this democracy catch-22 for several years now, and the election results make it an even sharper challenge. The postelection context has been dominated by the debate over whether to engage or isolate the far right—a debate that has been exhaustively covered and unfolding for many years. Yet, the empirical record suggests that neither engaging with the far right nor ostracizing it has worked especially well. Instead, a third approach might help map a way out of the democracy catch-22: a European democracy pact.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Far Right
Political Geography:: Europe

40. Mongolia’s Electoral Reform and the State Great Khural (Parliamentary) Elections

Author:: Ganbat Damba and Byambakhand Luguusharav
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Since the transition to a democratic systеm and market economy in the early 1990s, Mongolia has held its 9th parliamentary election. In a historic first, the election held on June 28 was carried out under the new electoral systеm. A total of 78 members of parliament (MPs) were elected from 13 majoritarian districts, with an additional 48 MPs elected through proportional representation in a nationwide constituency (General Election Commission of Mongolia 2024). The new parliament consists of 126 seats, in accordance with the amendments to the Constitution introduced in 2023. The election results demonstrated that the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) secured 68 seats, followed by the Democratic Party (DP) with 42 seats, the HUN Party with 8 seats, and both the National Alliance and the Civil Will-Green Party with 4 seats each. It is noteworthy that the MPP won 50 constituency seats and 18 from the party list, thereby ensuring a majority presence in parliament alongside three other parties that surpassed the legal threshold for representation (Oyunchimeg 2024). This distribution of seats underscores the diversity of representation in parliament, reflecting the electorate’s support for multiple political entities and ensuring a legislative body that is balanced and representative of the political spectrum. Over the past 34 years, various electoral systеms have been employed, including majoritarian voting systеms with single or multiple mandates and mixed systеms that combine majoritarian and proportional representation voting elements. Each systеm has its strengths and weaknesses. However, the criticism from both the public and political parties of the contemporary electoral systеm has resulted in frequent changes to it. Before the new systеm was introduced, the Mongolian parliament had maintained 76 seats since 1990. The number of seats in the parliament was increased by approximately 40 percent, from 76 to 126. Since 1990, Mongolia’s population has grown from 2.15 million to 3.5 million, an increase of about 40 percent. As a representative institution of the people, there has been significant debate in recent years regarding the potential expansion of the parliamentary seats. The proposed increase in seats has prompted a considerable number of individuals to seek election. In the first democratic election held after new democratic Constitution in 1992, only 293 individuals representing 10 parties and independents ran for the parliament. The 2024 Election saw the largest number of candidates to date, with the highest number of candidacies. A total of 372 individuals from 22 parties and coalitions contested the election through party lists, while 969 candidates ran in constituencies, resulting in a total of 1,341 candidates, marking a record high.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Mongolia and Asia

41. Horizontal Accountability Requires More than Legal Checks and Balances Systеm: Ten Asian Country Cases

Author:: Sook Jong Lee
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Most countries, except closed autocracies, conduct popular elections. However, the quality of global democracy has been deteriorating. One of the most significant illiberal trends is the aggrandizement of executive power led by a popularly elected political leader. Strongmen often bend or simply violate democratic rules by abusing their executive power. The electoral mandate gives them legitimacy, making the efforts to check their executive power difficult. In this context, horizontal accountability based on the checks and balances systеm and oversight institutions is important to prevent the emergence of strongmen. However, horizontal accountability cannot function effectively unless its legal mechanisms are implemented in practice. Ten Asian country cases, presented in previously published ADRN working papers, demonstrated that horizontal accountability perform better when the legislature is not politically captured by the executive power and the judiciary is independent. Oversight institutions also require both political independence and institutional capacity. The electoral accountability of elected elites to voters helps the legislative branch to fulfill its role of constraining the excessive executive power. Independent media and civil society participation always assist both electoral and horizontal accountability.
Topic:: Law, Democracy, Accountability, Civic Engagement, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Asia

42. Inside the Summit for Democracy: What’s Next?

Author:: Ken Godfrey and Anthony Smith
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: The third iteration of the Summit for Democracy (S4D) in Seoul from March 18 to 20 was an improvement on several elements of previous versions of S4D but still inherited some of the challenges. With this third summit in the rearview mirror, it is a good moment to take stock of the concrete impact of the summit itself and the goals of the S4D process in the future. We argue that the S4D has significant shortcomings but still has added value moving forward if the format can be adjusted in a more pragmatic direction.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democracy, Global South, Cooperation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Asia

43. South Korea’s Official Development Assistance for Democracy Support

Author:: Sook Jong Lee
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: As of 2022, South Korea provides Official Development Assistance (ODA) amounting to 2.79 billion USD, 0.17% of its gross national income, ranking 16th among the donor countries in the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which includes 30 countries. Since joining the DAC in 2010, South Korea’s ODA has been steadily increasing. The successful transition from a recipient to a donor country is a significant achievement globally. However, in the context of South Korea’s high status in liberal democracy, its level of support for democratic governance is relatively low. There is no clear definition of ‘democracy aid,’ but it generally refers to aid used to advocate and support democracy. Given that democracy aid could be perceived as interference in the internal affairs of recipient countries, it is not prominently emphasized in development assistance where poverty alleviation and socio-economic development are the primary goals. The DAC aims to promote development cooperation and related policies, targeting Sustainable Development 2030, which includes inclusive and sustainable economic development, progress in national and international equality, poverty eradication, and improving living conditions in developing countries. It establishes a standard of assistance policy in various fields such as development, trade, industry, environment, gender equality, anti-corruption, and strengthening civil society. In essence, the DAC does not explicitly state that spreading democracy is the purpose of ODA (OECD n.d.). South Korea’s Framework Act on International Development Cooperation also stipulates the purpose of itself to “enhance the appropriateness of policies for international development cooperation and the efficiency of the implementation thereof, and effectively achieve the policy objectives of international development cooperation by providing for basic matters concerning international development cooperation, thus contributing to the co-prosperity of humanity and to world peace.” This law outlines the principles of international development cooperation, such as “respect for all the principles of the Charter of the United Nations; support for the self-help efforts and abilities of developing countries; respect for the necessity of development of developing countries; increase in sharing of development experiences; and mutual harmony with the international community and promotion of cooperation therewith,” but there is no mention of linking ODA to democracy (OECD 2005; Korea Legislation Research Institute n.d.).
Topic:: Development, Democracy, Civil Society Organizations, and OECD
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

44. The Gaza War – Affective Polarization and the Future of Democracy

Author:: Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: The terrible terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent War in Gaza have not only affected the Middle East, but they have also had a disruptive impact on Western democracies. Divisions between those who support Israel’s fight against Islamist terrorism and those who the foreground the sufferings of Palestinian civilians have overlapped with deep affective polarization in many societies. The two positions seem to be irreconcilable and leave little to no room for empathy and dialogue. This report highlights a growing overlap between the perception of international conflicts and domestic polarization over identity issues and values.
Topic:: Democracy, Conflict, Polarization, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

45. Japan’s Approach to the Global South

Author:: Tobias Harris
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, in a January 2023 speech in Washington, DC, stressed that if the G7 countries and their developed-world peers neglect the “Global South”, “we will find ourselves in the minority and unable to resolve mounting policy issues.” These remarks set the stage for a major theme of Japan’s G7 presidency that year, during which Tokyo continued to highlight the importance of more “humility” to strengthen relations between the group’s members and the “Global South”. The G7 leaders’ communiqué at their May 2023 Hiroshima summit did not refer explicitly to the Global South—the United States and other nations did not necessarily share Japan’s preference for the term, which risks treating as monolithic an enormously diverse array of countries—but the document stressed the importance of addressing the needs of middle- and low-income states, including a commitment to “continued efforts to scale up official development assistance (ODA)” and to adopting “innovative financing mechanisms”. This emphasis on outreach to the developing countries assumed greater urgency following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when they were often reluctant to support Western efforts to isolate and punish the Kremlin for its aggression. Japan’s approach to the “Global South” is not merely rhetorical. The Kishida government inherited a long-standing approach to developing nations, particularly those in Asia, that seeks to leverage Japanese ODA and public and private investment. The approach has two goals: to promote growth and strengthen economic ties with developing countries, and to foster trust and political credibility that can be translated into influence. The strategy is shaped by Japan’s national interests but seeks to address developing countries’ economic needs without drawing them into an anti-Beijing bloc. The approach has worked well in Southeast Asia, where, thanks to decades of efforts by successive governments, Japan is viewed particularly favorably. Tokyo now appears increasingly determined to pursue the same strategy in other parts of the “Global South”, including South Asia, the Pacific island states, and, to a lesser extent, Africa and Latin America. As Japan’s G7 peers seek to undertake their own initiatives to improve relations with the “Global South”, the key principles and successes of the country’s policies are worth examining.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Democracy, Business, Global South, and Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

46. Democratic Russian Civil Society Outside Russia? A Window of Opportunity for Support

Author:: Nicolas Bouchet
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Russia has large sources of wealth and military power and is controlled by an autocratic, kleptocratic regime willing to devote these to aggression toward its neighbors, most violently in Ukraine. It is in the interest of Europe and the United States to support Russians who can help the country become more peaceful and democratic, alongside anti-regime measures. Repression has made supporting democratic actors in Russia extremely difficult but not impossible. That goal must now be complemented. Around 1 million people have left Russia since it invaded Ukraine in 2022. This opens a window of opportunity for unimpeded access to a large number of Russians to aid the spread of democratic ideas; raising the prospect of a democratic civil society developing outside the country. Europe and the United States need a strategy to support the democratic potential of the recent emigrants. Their largest concentrations are in the South Caucasus, Central Asia, the Western Balkans as well as Israel, Türkiye, the EU and the United States. The bulk of the emigrants are young adults who are richer, more educated, and more politically interested or active than the average citizen in Russia. For most, the motivations for leaving mixed political, economic, and lifestyle factors, and for many also unwillingness to be drafted into the military. The majority have democratic, anti-regime, and antiwar views. The emigrants include long-standing and newly civically and politically active individuals. A large share continue engagement abroad in diverse organizations and initiatives. Their activities focus on rebuilding civil society organizations (CSOs) and media abroad, supporting democratic actors and spreading independent information in Russia, and antiwar initiatives. They provide help to new emigrants and aim to build up their communities. These activities are carried out from one or more host countries, building transnational networks. There are new grassroots actions and initiatives by emigrants who had less or no direct experience of activism in Russia. Emigrant groups mostly operate through horizontal, fluid networks. Many of these are small and informal, but there are larger, more structured ones. Emigrant communities also offer a space for critical debate about the need for democratic change and the link between this and Russia’s colonial/imperial heritage and aggression. The recent emigrants’ activities face many challenges, including those in operating networks reliant on online resources; in connecting digital and non-digital activism; and in planning beyond the short term without sufficient resources. They are hampered by reliance on small (often part-time) core teams and volunteers. Many activists experience financial precarity, employment insecurity, and burnout. Security is a major concern due to the risk of infiltration, destabilization, and cyber and physical attacks by Russia’s security apparatus. The situation for emigrants has become more restrictive or less safe in some host countries. Individuals and organizations that oppose the Russian regime are also affected by restrictive international measures against it, such as ones against money laundering and the monetization of online content, or the denial of access to financial, professional, and commercial services. As Russians have realized that emigration will be for a longer term, the phase of settling in a host country became more prominent than the earlier exit phase. For many, this includes the need to move from the first host country, with those more politically active more likely to look for one with a safer, more enabling environment. This will largely mean seeking to move to an EU or other Western country. The non-EU countries easiest for Russians to access are also the ones where their prospects are more uncertain, whereas the EU countries are harder to access but offer more certain prospects. Russia in the 1990s showed how an unpredicted democratic opening can fail to lead to lasting or deep change. Today, alongside aiding political and nongovernmental actors, democracy-support providers should also try to help Russian society evolve in a democratic direction. The new emigrant activities are seeds for a democratic civil society abroad that is closely connected to, and supportive of, the one in Russia. Three principles should underpin a strategy to support the democratic potential of the recent Russian emigration: shifting emphasis to the settling phase of emigration, prioritizing connectivity within the emigration, and helping weave a civil society abroad. To foster the development of a democratic civil society among Russian emigrants, assistance musttarget the building of a wider community that can be more effective and serve as a model in Russia. For this, the landscape of Russians outside Russia can be seen as four concentric circles, based on their degree of direct political activity: the political opposition in exile; the civil society sector of democracy, human rights, and media organizations; the community of emigrants since 2022, and in particular the new grassroots actors and initiatives emerging within it; and the older, multigeneration Russian diaspora. A democracy support strategy for Russian emigrants should not be open-ended but time-bound, with a pragmatic approach in an uncertain environment. It can be assessed in 2030, when President Vladimir Putin’s current term as president is due to end, which could be a time of political turbulence. The strategy can be initially implemented within the next 12–24 months, with annual review of support offered to civil society, especially at the grassroots, with the potential to grow and to reach out to the apolitical emigrants. Support should consist of mostly small, short-term assistance to actors and initiatives that would have until 2030 to show that they have impact and longer-term potential. It is crucial to support the widest range of diverse, dispersed actors of different sizes so that they can keep operating. The focus should not be only on formal organizations but also on more bounded initiatives and projects. Part of the assistance should focus on enabling politically and civically active emigrants to connect physically and virtually across locations, and to focus on flexible networking suited to their mobility challenges. Funders need to think widely in terms of locations and formats for delivering support. Using different, sometimes unconventional, ways of engaging emigrant actors is a necessity. Support should not rely only on usual formats, not least since new ones for activities are emerging from within the emigrant landscape. Such support is also key for encouraging and amplifying the critical thinking in the emigrant landscape as well as connections to new antiwar and anti-imperialist initiatives—a prerequisite for any democratic progress in Russia. Connections are what make a society more than a collection of groups. For the development of a democratic civil society outside Russia, support should be directed not only within the individual circles of the emigration but also at connections between them. The primary focus should be on relations between the second (established CSOs) and third (new grassroots actors) circles to prevent the diverse civically and politically active emigrants and groups being in silos. Contacts with recent emigrants could also eventually encourage changes in attitudes within the older diaspora toward the Russian regime or democratic civic engagement in general.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democracy, Refugees, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

47. The End of Russia’s “Unipolar Moment” in the South Caucasus

Author:: Irakli Sirbiladze
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The war in Ukraine has exposed Russia’s weaknesses and ended its “unipolar moment” in the South Caucasus. This has affected the calculations of the three states in a region where Moscow traditionally had the upper hand over local and competing outside actors. Prior to the war, Russia had been able sustain its security, political, and economic leverage over Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, yet the extent of its influence varied over time and depending on the leadership in each country. Moscow was Armenia’s key ally, bringing the country into its security, political, and economic space. Russia also enjoyed close political and business ties with Azerbaijan, underpinned by shared authoritarianism. Baku joined the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) but stayed out of Russian-led security institutions. Moscow’s role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict gave it particular security leverage over Baku and Yerevan. Russia’s leverage with Georgia has fluctuated. The country joined the CIS but not other Russian-led organizations. Political ties started to erode in the early 2000s, especially following the 2003 Rose Revolution. The 2008 war weakened Russia’s leverage as Georgia left the CIS and cut diplomatic ties. Economic relations have improved since 2012 even as Tbilisi continued to seek EU and NATO membership. The war in Ukraine has weakened Russia’s sway over the region, accelerating what had started with the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War as Moscow sided with Azerbaijan rather than its treaty ally Armenia. This led to growing difference with Yerevan and convergence with Baku. Armenia is now looking for alternative security partners and engaging with the EU and the United States. Azerbaijan is taking advantage of Moscow’s focus on Ukraine to fully achieve its objectives, including the early departure of Russian peacekeepers from its territory. Georgia receiving EU candidate status could have reduced Russia’s leverage but its ruling party’s antidemocratic and anti-West turn keeps favoring Moscow’s influence. Western economic sanctions have further undermined Russia’s hold over the South Caucasus states: it needs them more to connect and trade with Asian markets. The new geo-economic reality favors the three countries and Moscow can now hardly use economic tools against them. Russia’s waning influence has made it one among other players in the South Caucasus. It can no longer ignore the role of China, the EU, Iran, Türkiye, and the United States there. The emerging geopolitical and geo-economic plurality in the region has made Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia more daring and transactional in their engagement with all outside powers. This has implications for the three countries in terms of peace and security, democracy, and geopolitical orientation. Azerbaijan is likely to remain undemocratic and to keep engaging with all powers transactionally to maintain national and regime security. Armenia finds itself in a complicated state of insecurity that affects democratization and makes multi-alignment its default foreign policy orientation. Georgia, whose democratic decline is the result of its own politics, is likely to sustain its multi-aligned and transactional foreign policy posture if the current government stays in power, while an opposition victory in the coming elections might turn the country back to democracy and a West-oriented foreign policy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Unipolarity
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, South Caucasus, and Black Sea

48. Disinformation in the City: Response Playbook

Author:: Jessica (Ika) Trijsburg and Paul Costello
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: As actors responsible for decisions and policies that shape people’s daily lives, and as those most aware of community fault lines that are fertile ground for disinformation, city officials are well positioned to respond. Yet, research, analysis, and policymaking related to disinformation have remained at the national and international levels. GMF, the Melbourne Centre for Cities, and other partners have developed a response playbook to help inform and guide city policies and practices to counter disinformation and ultimately to strengthen democracy. In cities, disinformation sometimes manifests itself in physical events, including protests and disruptions. It also has individual impacts for political, institutional, and community leaders and staff. Disinformation affects the functioning of city administrations and elected bodies, impacting governance and policymaking. It also impacts communities, reducing mutual trust and increasing division and polarization. Disinformation commonly exploits existing social fault lines and polarization. In cities, the fault lines targeted by disinformation center around First Nations, migrants, cultural diversity, gender and sexual diversity, health and wellbeing, sustainability and climate issues, and urban planning. Understanding how disinformation spreads, and how to respond effectively, is critical for city governments. Current knowledge, however, is focused mainly on the national and international realms and not readily accessible and translatable for urban governance needs. This is why GMF Cities, in response to needs expressed by many city governments, developed this playbook in collaboration with a core interdisciplinary research team from the Australian National University, Monash University, Deakin University, and Victoria University, led by the Melbourne Centre for Cities at the University of Melbourne. The playbook was developed with representatives from cities, media, the tech sector, civil society, and academia. The process began with an in-depth survey to understand the current experiences of participating cities and responses to disinformation they employed. The findings informed a series of workshops with 40 participants who together created the content of and recommendations in the playbook. The full draft was reviewed by the participants before it was submitted to other cities, city networks, disinformation experts, and other levels of government for pressure testing.
Topic:: Democracy, Cities, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

49. Teaching Difficult Histories: Key Principles For Democracy

Author:: Stuart Austin
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This project report details the discussions and findings of the Teaching History Programme of the Ratiu Forum from 2023 to 2024, sitting under the Central and South-East Europe Programme. The workshops and conferences engaged with History teachers of post-communist Europe to address the challenges of politicised History curricula and explore methods for teaching difficult and dark pasts – facilitating and improving cross-border understanding within the region. The report concludes with recommendations for teachers generated by the workshops, geared towards open and democratic societies to counter political extremism and autocratic populism, as well as considering the direction for future workshops.
Topic:: Democracy, Populism, History, Political Extremism, and Post-Communism
Political Geography:: Europe

50. The Past, Present, and Future of Realism: A Conversation with Stephen M. Walt—February 2024

Author:: Stephen M. Walt
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: I liked realism from the start because I thought it did a much better job of explaining how states behave than other theories. It is not perfect, and it’s not that other perspectives don’t make their own contributions to our understanding, but I felt that realism had a much better track record in explaining how countries behaved. It also had extraordinary range across time and space: realist ideas could explain a lot about how empires acted, how city-states acted, how nation-states acted. It had explanations for why wars occur, why alliances form, why some states rise and fall. So it had a very wide applicability. And I thought that the main modern rivals to realist theory just weren’t as persuasive. Liberal theories didn’t predict that well. A good liberal would think that democracies would act fundamentally differently than autocracies, but the evidence that they do is limited. And as we talked about before, realism tells you that international law or norms will be of only limited value in controlling what the most powerful states will do.
Topic:: International Affairs, Democracy, Realism, and State
Political Geography:: Global Focus

51. Electoral Fraud and the Weakening Of Cameroonian Democracy

Author:: Joseph Thierry Okala Ebode
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The resurgence of democracy in Cameroon, mirroring trends across Francophone sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s, was characterized by electoral system reforms and the introduction of multiparty elections (1). However, the outcomes of these reforms and subsequent elections have often fallen short of expectations. The March 1992 multiparty legislative elections saw opposition parties secure a majority (92 out of 180 seats), yet they were unable to assume power. Since then, despite numerous presidential and local elections, the country has seen neither a transfer of power at the highest levels of government nor the local-level changes citizens have long desired. This aspiration for political alternation continues to be thwarted by a system that consistently reinstates the same leadership. Paradoxically, despite a proliferation of political parties (2), the influence and significance of the opposition continue to wane. This diminishing role of the opposition, coupled with growing democratic disillusionment (3), can be largely attributed to electoral fraud (4). Electoral fraud encompasses any illegal actions aimed at favoring particular candidates or party lists at the expense of others. This raises a critical question: How does electoral fraud, an illegal practice, lead to the disengagement of members of the opposing political landscape, the general public, and particularly the youth, from the political process? To address this, our analysis will focus on two main areas: first, examining fraudulent practices that operate within legal loopholes, and second, investigating overtly illegal fraudulent activities.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Fraud
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

52. Youth Participation in Democratic Processes in Francophone Africa

Author:: Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Youth participation in democratic processes in Francophone Africa varies significantly across countries, influenced by socio-economic factors, political dynamics, and historical contexts (1). Here are some key aspects to consider, many Francophone African countries have histories of authoritarianism or single-party dominance, which can discourage youth engagement in formal political processes. High levels of unemployment and limited economic opportunities can lead young people to prioritize immediate survival over political engagement(2). Limited access to quality education and political information can hinder youth understanding of democratic processes and their ability to engage effectively. The younger population has always been a crucial group for political mobilization during elections in Africa. With the continent experiencing a significant increase in youth population, many of whom are struggling with unemployment and underemployment, winning the support of this demographic has become increasingly vital. Despite their large numbers and the significance of generational identities in the region’s history, there remains a lack of understanding regarding the political engagement of Africa’s youth(3). The media and digital platforms play a critical role in providing information about democratic values and election procedures, fostering safe spaces for young people to participate in the political process, and reducing calls for boycotting elections and using violence to keep young people away from disobedience. This paper examines the reason for youths reluctance to participate in democratic processes in Francophone Africa and the UN/global perspective. The paper ends with the role of Election Management Bodies (EMBs) and policy recommendations.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Democracy, Youth, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Africa

53. A Reflection on Africa’s Democratic Future: Why Governments Need to Invest in Curriculum-Driven Civic Education

Author:: Felix Kumah-Abiwu
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Three decades into the new wave of democratic rule in Africa after the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s cannot be overlooked. Countries such as Ghana, Nigeria, Malawi, and South Africa, are a few examples of countries that have continued to make progress in consolidating their democracies. At the same time, the continent stands at a crossroads (1) given the recent increase in military coups and the growing popular support for these coups (2) in West Africa, amid other serious security challenges facing other parts of the African continent. While Africa’s challenges are not unique, as with other emerging liberal democracies, the disturbing aspect is when many Africans are losing faith in their democratic system of governance. The popular support (3) for recent military coups (4) in West Africa is one of the manifestations of this worrying trend. This policy paper discusses the “new discourse” on democratic decay in Africa, especially in West Africa. To help address some of Africa’s democratic difficulties, the paper argues that African governments need to take policy steps in investing resources in a curriculum-driven civic education to help sustain Africa’s democratic future. To properly situate the analysis into a broader context, the paper provides an overview of Africa’s socio-political landscape.
Topic:: Education, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Curriculum
Political Geography:: Africa

54. Rethinking Democracy ep. 4: China's growing presence in the Middle East with Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman

Author:: F. Gregory Gause, Jon B. Alterman, and Gonul Tol
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: About the series: This is a critical year for the future of democracy. Half the world’s population will go to the polls in 2024, at a time when citizens in America and across the globe are losing faith in democratic institutions. We often view the rollback of democracy and threats to the liberal international order as separate problems, but in reality they are closely interlinked. Through a new limited podcast series, MEI’s Gonul Tol seeks to examine the interplay between democracy’s domestic and international foes as well as how to counter them. In this episode: China has made significant inroads in the Middle East through diplomacy, trade, investment, and infrastructure projects. Beijing advertises the benefits of its authoritarian development model and presents itself as a responsible alternative to the United States. What does this mean for MENA autocracies? Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman join Gonul Tol to discuss China’s growing presence in the Middle East.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Institutions
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

55. Urban Governance and Responsible Artificial Intelligence Interaction for Local Democracy

Author:: Itır Akdoğan
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This policy brief discusses how the interaction of responsible artificial intelligence (RAI) and urban governance can democratize cities while providing policy recommendations.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

56. Is the West Wobbling on its Democratic Pedestal?

Author:: William Harrison
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The West has been arguing for decades that the Developing World and Post-Soviet World should be democratic. It argues that democracy is the best form of government and that countries around the world should embrace democracy or face certain kinds of punishment such as a reduction in development aid. It is not the purpose of this paper to argue the benefits of democracy over other forms of government but instead to argue that, with democratic norms under attack in much of the West, that the West is no longer in a moral position to claim to be the promoters of democracy internationally. This paper will discuss events, laws, and actions by Western Countries that are inimical to democracy and argue that if the West wants to regain what it sees as the democratic moral high ground it must alter its policies to being more democratic itself.
Topic:: Development, Government, Law, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

57. Unrest on Repeat: Plotting a Route to Stability in Peru

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: No country in Latin America suffers higher rates of dissatisfaction with democracy and government institutions than Peru. Absent remedies for political polarisation and state dysfunction, the mass protests that rocked the country in late 2022 could easily recur, bringing comparably violent crackdowns.
Topic:: Democracy, Political stability, Institutions, Polarization, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

58. La política de los jóvenes en España

Author:: Jose R. Rojo
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: La percepción general sobre la participación política de los jóvenes en España suele ser negativa, asociándose con la apatía y el desinterés. Esta idea no es nueva y se basa en estereotipos arraigados, que persisten a pesar de que la oferta política ha crecido, sobre la pasividad de la juventud. Los jóvenes modernos desafían las definiciones tradicionales sobre lo político, complicando aún más el entendimiento de sus actitudes hacia los poderes públicos. Pero, ¿qué hay de cierto en estas percepciones? ¿Cuánto y cómo participan los jóvenes en elecciones, partidos y movimientos sociales? Ignorar las preocupaciones y perspectivas de futuro de los nuevos ciudadanos podría tener graves consecuencias a largo plazo. Con el objetivo de garantizar una democracia inclusiva para con los jóvenes, proponemos un análisis en profundidad y sin prejuicios, desde el que colaborar a la reconstrucción del contrato social intergeneracional.
Topic:: Democracy, Citizenship, Youth, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

59. Informe Iberoamérica 2024: El desafío de la seguridad para las democracias latinoamericanas

Author:: Lucía Dammert, Thiago Rodrigues, Dorly Castañeda, Erika Rodríguez Pinzón, and Matías Mongan Marcó
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Las crisis de inseguridad que vive América Latina se ha convertido en una amenaza real para nuestras democracias. La inseguridad ciudadana, exacerbada por el crimen organizado, el avance del narcotráfico y la violencia endémica no solo destruye vidas humanas y bienestar, sino que también erosiona la confianza en el Estado y sus instituciones. La impunidad, la corrupción y la ineficacia en la administración de la justicia crean un círculo vicioso que debilita las bases mismas de la democracia y de nuestro contrato social. Nuestro Informe Iberoamérica 2024 hace un repaso de varios asuntos centrales relativos a la actual crisis de seguridad ciudadana, incluyendo las transformaciones en el aparato policial, la economía política del narcotráfico, o el crecimiento del ciberdelito, y casos concretos como Ecuador o la frontera entre Colombia y Venezuela. España y Europa no son ajenas a este fenómeno y han empezado a tender puentes con la región para cooperar en múltiples aspectos. Con las próximas Cumbres Iberoamericana y UE-CELAC en el horizonte, invitamos a responsables políticos, expertos y agentes sociales a debatir y buscar soluciones conjuntas para Iberoamérica sobre este asunto fundamental.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Corruption, Democracy, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Latin America

60. Challenges to Democracy: The 2024 Election in Focus

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: While most Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, they have more positive assessments of how things are going in their communities and personal lives. Seven in ten Americans (70%) believe things in the country are going in the wrong direction, including most Republicans (94%) and independents (70%), compared with 41% of Democrats. While a majority of Americans (54%) also believe that things in their home state are going in the wrong direction, 56% of Americans believe things in their local communities are going in the right direction. Roughly eight in ten Americans, across party lines, believe that things in their personal lives are going in the right direction. Americans are divided on whether American culture and way of life since the 1950s has changed for the better, with Republicans and Democrats holding opposite views. Republicans (68%) are more likely than independents (48%) and Democrats (31%) to say that American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the worse since the 1950s. White Christian groups and Hispanic Protestants are the most likely to say American culture and way of life has changed for the worse since the 1950s.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

61. Resistance to Christian Nationalism in All 50 States: A PRRI-Meanings of Democracy Lab Report

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: To view a PDF of findings presented October 30, 2024, click here. To view the release event featuring a panel discussion of the survey’s findings, click here. Introduction In recent years, Christian nationalism has emerged as a major issue and source of division in American politics. While much attention has rightfully been paid to the strength of Christian nationalist beliefs and their implications among the general public, less attention has been paid to the large swaths of Americans who resist Christian nationalist beliefs. Insofar as Christian nationalism frames Christianity as an essential feature of American culture and identity, and in some cases calls for the exclusion of non-Christian citizens from positions of power and influence, it makes sense that non-Christian groups would be the most resistant to Christian nationalism. But resistance to Christian nationalism is found across most religious traditions, as well as across political parties, demographic groups, and geographic regions. Throughout 2023, PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults as part of its American Values Atlas, which provides for the first time the ability to estimate support for Christian nationalism in all 50 states. In February 2024, PRRI released a comprehensive report on Support for Christian Nationalism in All 50 States. This PRRI-Meanings of Democracy Lab report will assess the state of Americans’ resistance to the ideas associated with Christian nationalism in all 50 states.
Topic:: Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Christian Nationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

62. Democracy and the ‘citizen-soldier’ military: The case of Kosovo and Israel

Author:: Ronen Itsik
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The intention of Kosovo’s government to establish a ‘citizen-soldier’ military creates an opportunity to do the ‘right thing from the beginning’—the current comparative study elaborates on the steps that have to be taken in order to establish a military in a young and small democratic state, with a strong normative base, that will provide confidence in the defence system alongside constructive socialisation. The structure of constitutional analysis serves as a base for in-depth discussion concerning the military service model in democratic states. The analysis is followed by an elaboration on the ‘citizen-soldier’ military model in the context of cultural aspects and the connection to the constitutional base, combined with an analysis of Israel’s and Kosovo’s social–cultural features, security challenges, and geo-strategic situations, similarities and opportunities regarding implementation of a military model. The study reveals that in democratic states, the ‘citizen-soldier’ model has to be anchored in the culture and in the constitution in order to prevent social conflicts concerning rights and duties, establishing a constructive social platform that empowers national resilience alongside defensive abilities. Kosovo’s success in implementing a ‘citizen-soldier’ model is built on the adoption of positive ways of social integration using Israel’s experience while minimising its weaknesses: the existence of constitutional definitions that will balance civilians’ rights and duties in the context of military duty, harnessing the education system as a socialisation agent, and establishment of a reserve military force that will be anchored in national duty, in the security view and the social view.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Democracy, and Military
Political Geography:: Israel and Kosovo

63. Building bridges for non-violent change: Women as insider mediators in Thailandʼs 2020–2022 pro-democracy movements

Author:: Bencharat Sae Chua and Duanghathai Buranajaroenkij
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: The youth-led pro-democracy protests in Thailand from 2020-2022 represented a major turning point in the country’s political landscape. Women played prominent roles, demonstrating resilience and leadership throughout the movement. This research report focuses on women’s roles as insider mediators in resolving conflicts between protesters and authorities, examining the gender dynamics at play. It also explores strategies to support women in sustaining their mediation roles, providing recommendations for enhancing their capacities and effectiveness.
Topic:: Social Movement, Women, Democracy, Leadership, Protests, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Thailand and Southeast Asia

64. Building bridges for non-violent change: Women as insider mediators within the pro-democracy movement in Venezuela

Author:: Isabella Picón Ball
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: As the social, humanitarian and political crises become more acute in Venezuela, social actors who were previously marginalised have acquired more prominent roles within the pro-democracy movement– among them, women. Moreover, for the first time in its history, the Venezuelan opposition has a woman –María Corina Machado – as its main leader. This study stems from the need to understand the strengthened roles of civil society and women in these negotiations and explores the roles of women as insider mediators within the Venezuelan pro-democracy movement.
Topic:: Civil Society, Social Movement, Women, Democracy, Mediation, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

65. Coups and social trust: Evidence from a natural experiment in Burkina Faso

Author:: Thomas Brailey, Robin Harding, and Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: How do coups affect social trust? Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in the prevalence of coups, in particular across West Africa. Although significant attention has been paid to the effects of other forms of political violence and instability on social trust, to date very little research has considered how social trust is affected by coups, which represent a distinctive form of intra-elite conflict. Building on insights from work in philosophy and social psychology, we conceptualise trust as an adaptive response to vulnerability. Coups represent moments of violent competition for power between elites that create uncertainty about the state as a provider of security and essential services. Consequently, we argue that social trust will increase in response to coups, as a means of offsetting this uncertainty and insecurity. We exploit a unique natural experiment in Burkina Faso to identify the causal effect of coups on social trust, using data from a survey that was in the field during September 2022, when Burkina Faso experienced its second coup of that year. This provides robust evidence that coups can increase social trust, and further analysis supports the proposed mechanism that increased social trust following the coup was a response to uncertainty and insecurity. For external validity, analysis of cross-national survey data from the Afrobarometer series suggests that the positive relationship between coup exposure and social trust holds more broadly.
Topic:: Democracy, Coup, and Social Trust
Political Geography:: Africa and Burkina Faso

66. Willingness of Zambians to sacrifice democratic principles during a pandemic: The case of COVID-19

Author:: Isaac Newton Bortey
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: What is the impact of a pandemic on citizens’ willingness to sacrifice democratic principles? Using the novel COVID-19 pandemic as a case, I assess how the effects of COVID-19 influence Zambians’ willingness to sacrifice democratic principles through censorship of the media, postponement of elections, and the use of security forces to enforce public health mandates. I analyse data from the Round 8 Afrobarometer survey in Zambia (collected in 2020 from 1,200 adults), which included questions on COVID-19. Results of a multiple linear regression and a logistic regression suggest that Zambians’ experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic have an influence on their willingness to sacrifice democratic principles. Those who lost a job due to the pandemic are less willing to accept a sacrifice of democratic principles, while positive assessments of the government’s management of the pandemic and perceptions of the pandemic as serious increase people’s willingness to suspend democratic principles. The findings also suggest that Zambians’ trust in the president and their perceptions of the government as legitimate make them more willing to agree to forfeit a democratic principle, at least when the country is faced with a pandemic.
Topic:: Health, Governance, Democracy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

67. The Revolution in Bangladesh Raises the Prospect of Renewed Democracy

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: On 5 August, a social revolution forced Bangladesh’s long-serving Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to step down and leave the country. The massive anti-government protests were caused by a combination of the authoritarian rule and increasingly difficult post-pandemic economic situation. A transitional government led by Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus will be tasked with stabilising the country and preparing for free and fair parliamentary elections. It is in the West’s interest to strengthen democracy in Bangladesh. Poland can use this moment of democratic transition to intensify bilateral cooperation.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Protests, Revolution, and Sheikh Hasina
Political Geography:: Bangladesh, South Asia, and Poland

68. A push to the right, but the outgoing majority coalition is expected to be renewed

Author:: Pascale Joannin
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The European elections were held from 6 to 9 June in the 27 Member States of the European Union. Turnout was higher than in 2019, demonstrating that people feel more concerned by European issues.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Citizenship
Political Geography:: Europe

69. Being European (free, modern and independent): a view from Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Nathalie de Kaniv
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The philosophy and culture of the Enlightenment shaped the mental map of Europe, drawing a distinction between civilization and barbarism. The latter is now rising again, and contemporary geopolitics, turned upside down by the Russian war and the scale of aggression in the Middle East, is bringing the clash of civilizations back into focus. The war against the West, the anti-Western narrative, the confrontation between the free world and authoritarian regimes nostalgic for distant empires, the desire to create grey zones, barriers to the spread of values that are uncomfortable, even threatening, for hostile centralized systems, are challenging Europe. Authoritarianism, the aspiration to infinite power, corruption rooted in state governance, the use of repression against all opposition, the manipulation of international law and interference go hand in hand with militaristic slogans that promote the erasure of certain states from the world map, and illustrate the mutation of systems towards new forms of power. Clinging to undivided power, the designation of a common enemy fosters the attraction of war and murder. So, what is this West that some say they are fighting or want to do away with? What choices have those who fervently resist this threat made? What does it mean to be European, which has become a "raison d'être" in countries threatened by the Kremlin? Now is the time to take a closer look at the contribution of these states resisting the threat to our perception of what it means to be European. What does it mean to be European in Central and Eastern Europe[1], which has remained European despite the Iron Curtain? Far from seeking an exhaustive answer to this complex question, our aim is to examine some of the notions that permeate the European idea in Central and Eastern Europe.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Citizenship
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

70. How Authoritarian Value Systems Undermine Global AI Governance

Author:: Sabhanaz Rashid Diya
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Digital authoritarianism is often considered an issue limited to a few illiberal regimes. However, neo-liberal AI technologies can be equally pervasive. It is crucial to treat authoritarianism as a values complex that permeates both autocratic and liberal societies. Authoritarian values may manifest through transplant of legal practices between states, autocratic homogenization through multilateral mechanisms, and exploitation of geopolitical tensions to adopt protectionist policies. These approaches exacerbate public polarization around AI governance by creating a false dichotomy between innovation and sovereignty on the one hand, and fundamental rights on the other, chipping away at institutional trust. Sabhanaz Rashid Diya writes that policy solutions to mitigate the erosion of democratic norms and public trust should focus on international mechanisms central to AI governance. These mechanisms need to introduce procedural safeguards that ensure transparency and accountability through equitable multi-stakeholder processes. Additionally, they should encourage regulatory diversity tailored to sociopolitical contexts and aligned with international human rights principles.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Transparency, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

71. In Search of an African Theory of Democracy: Utilising the Tiv Cultural Philosophy of Ya-Na-Angbian

Author:: Ayaka Simon Silas and Yusufu Ahmed Audu
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This paper critically assessed the lacunae in African political scholarship, particularly the lack of a comprehensive democratic theory that rigorously defined the principles, interpretations, norms, and essence of democracy as practised across the continent. It advocated for a thorough examination of indigenous democratic values, practices, and concepts, specifically through the perspective of the Tiv cultural philosophy of Ya-Na-Angbian, which translates to “eat and give to your brother.” This philosophy, characterised by its principles of egalitarianism and communal solidarity, has the potential to significantly contribute to the formulation of a unique African democratic theory. Grounded in indigenous knowledge systems and cultural philosophies, such a theory could catalyse substantive and sustainable development throughout Africa. Utilising the Communitarian Theory as its analytical framework and drawing from a wide array of secondary sources, the paper employed descriptive and expository methodologies to elucidate the fundamental tenets of Ya-Na-Angbian. It highlighted the principles of egalitarianism and communal solidarity, assessing their practical relevance in democratic governance and their effectiveness in addressing contemporary socio-political challenges. The study revealed that the Ya-Na-Angbian philosophy, emblematic of Tiv distributive justice, has undergone significant transformations under the influences of Western culture, capitalism, Christianity, and the prevalent “sit-tight” syndrome within Nigerian politics. Consequently, the paper concluded that the erosion of the Ya-NaAngbian philosophy signals potential political instability in Tiv land. It, therefore, recommends the urgent revitalisation and reaffirmation of Ya-Na-Angbian values to promote peace, progress, and social cohesion not only within Tiv land and Nigeria but across the broader African continent.
Topic:: Democracy, Philosophy, Scholarships, and Egalitarianism
Political Geography:: Africa

72. Coming to Understand Latino Anti-Black Bias with Tanya K Hernandez (Episode 13)

Author:: Tanya K. Hernandez
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: It is possible for a historically marginalized group to experience discrimination and to also be discriminatory. Understanding the hard truth of Latino anti-Black bias is critical for fostering a multiracial democracy. Host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) discusses these issues with “Racial Innocence: Unmasking Latino Anti-Black Bias and the Struggle for Equality (https://www.akpress.org/racial-innoce...) ” author and Fordham School of Law Professor Tanya Katerí Hernández (https://www.fordham.edu/school-of-law...) .
Topic:: Race, Democracy, Civil Rights, Latinos, Anti-Blackness, and Critical Race Theory (CRT)
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

73. The Impact of Digital Policy Tools on Local Democracy

Author:: Itır Akdoğan
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This brief analyses how the digital policy tool My Purple Map, developed by TESEV in cooperation with UN Women Turkey and Eskişehir Metropolitan Municipality, has impacted a local government and puts forward a number of recommendations as to how this impact can be further broadened for a stronger local democracy.
Topic:: United Nations, Democracy, Inequality, Digital Policy, and Gender
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

74. Opiate of the Masses: Analysing Dynamics, Rhetoric, and Sociopolitical Consequences of Populism in Contemporary Politics of Pakistan

Author:: Muhammad Kamran Fiaz and Rafida Nawaz
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Populism is a political phenomenon that has gained significant attention in recent times due to its ability to appeal to the masses for common good and to bring about changes in established political systems. It has become a significant political force in many parts of the world, including Pakistan. Pakistan is a country that has experienced political instability and economic challenges since its inception. While populism has provided a platform for addressing the grievances of marginalized communities, it has also posed significant challenges to democratic governance and economic stability. Mixed method research approach is utilized in the study to examine the role of populism in the political history of Pakistan. To study political dynamics of Pakistan, the works of scholars such as Ernesto Laclau, Chantal Mouffe, Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe Schmitter are used in the research paper. To gather empirical data, a questionnaire has been employed as a research tool. This enables a deeper understanding of recent developments in populism within Pakistan. By examining the historical and social context of Pakistan and identifying the factors that have contributed to the rise of populist movements in the country, the research paper aims to analyze the developments of populism in Pakistan offering insights into its potential benefits and pitfalls. The findings of the study will have significant implications for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners in Pakistan and beyond.
Topic:: Politics, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

75. Perceptions of Public Accountability and its Impacts on Democratic Stability in Nigeria: Observations from Akwa Ibom State

Author:: Lawrence I. Edet and Monday S. Akpakpan
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The manner at which public officials manipulates and won elections in Nigeria deeply depreciates the political value of the electorate and embolden such officials to refuse to be accountable to the masses. Thus, democracy in Nigeria has been profoundly endangered since Nigeria returned to democratic system of government in 1999 as a result of undemocratic practices, chiefly, the aspects that relates to elections and public accountability. At the center of these democratic misdemeanors in Nigeria is inherent lack of transparency and accountability of public leaders. This study therefore investigates perceptions of public accountability and its impacts on democratic stability in Nigeria with observations from Akwa Ibom State. The study articulated four objectives which translated into four research questions and four hypotheses. The Social Contract Theory was adopted for this study. The study also adopted descriptive research design and chi-square statistical technique to analyze the data collected. Research questionnaire was distributed to sample of 200 participants randomly selected from each of the three senatorial districts of Akwa Ibom State, totaling 600, which the researcher only retrieved 570 of it. The findings revealed among others that citizens’ views about the electoral processes influence their perceptions of democratic stability. The study recommended among others that the electoral processes should be very transparent to all citizens to enlist their trust and confidence in the political system.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Accountability, Transparency, and Public Officials
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

76. Democracy and the Politics of Ethnicity and Language in Pakistan During the Bhutto Regime: A Case Study of Balochistan

Author:: Changiz Ahmed, Mohammad Ali, and Adnan Riaz
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The article studies the dynamics of ethnic conflict in Balochistan and its relation to the paradigm of democracy in Pakistan during the first elected government in the Bhutto Era. Like many third-world countries, the language controversies in Pakistan have provoked ethnic and political conflicts. Due to disagreements over the national language, the government was unable to develop a constitution for nearly 9 years after independence. Though the dispute was theoretically resolved in 1956, it continues to haunt the state. Although Bhutto was an elected leader, his rule was not immune to ethnic conflicts. Ethnic sentiments garnered attention in Balochistan, triggering confrontations and secessionist tendencies. An insurgency began in Balochistan, causing harm to both the Baloch and the state, and it still exists. The article affirms that in this context, ethnic conflicts have political objectives; the main causes of such conflicts are political, such as under-representation in state institutions, unequal distribution of resources, economic disparities, and, in many cases, the state elite's reluctance to recognise the identity of a particular ethnic minority.
Topic:: Politics, Insurgency, Democracy, Ethnicity, Language, Federalism, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and Balochistan

77. Military Dominance in Post-Colonial States; A Case Study of Pakistan

Author:: Javed Ali
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: All colonies got independence in the twentieth century through fighting or political movements against the colonizers or got independence without any struggle. mostly in these (post-colonial) states, military is dominant where political institutions are weak. Pakistan is one of these states, where army waged war against the democracy successfully and ruled directly half of the independence period. It indirect ruled the country through installing or dissolution of civilian governments. Now, they run the state from behind through giving instructions to the civilians, legalized its power using rivalry with India (Shah, 2020). Coincidently, during the military rule, Pakistan got economic well-being and remained stable (Burkey, 2010). It is now ray of hope that the military will disassociate itself from politics and become neutral. This paper will discuss the reasons behind the military dominance and provide a solution how to get rid from this dominance without hurting people confidence in the military and without wrong labeling it.
Topic:: History, Democracy, Military, and Post-Colonial
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

78. The EU and CT-P/CVE in its external action

Author:: Dylan Macchiarini Crosson, Tatjana Stankovic, Pernille Rieker, and Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This article re-frames the ongoing democracy versus security debate surrounding the European Union’s (EU) policies to counter terrorism and prevent/counter violent extremism (CT-P/CVE). Indeed, extant literature has primarily focused on how the EU’s CTP/CVE-specific emphasis on security concerns has come at the expense of attention towards good governance and social justice, thereby undermining the effectiveness of its approach. After reviewing general concepts discerned from previous research on the EU’s CT-P/CVE policy, tracing its approach over time, analysing key documents, and conducting interviews with policymakers, this analysis finds that the EU – in its words, funding, and policy implementation – also pays significant CT-P/CVE-relevant attention to the structural causes of radicalisation to violent extremism and terrorism by mobilising significant developmentoriented resources and diplomatic energy. By doing so, the EU’s CT-P/CVE policies balance an emphasis on security concerns and broader socio-economic and diplomatic engagement. However, the EU simultaneously de-emphasises good governance and peacebuilding, which must be reinforced and mainstreamed across its primary developmental engagement for the EU’s CT-P/CVE approach to be considered fully fit-for-purpose.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Governance, Violent Extremism, European Union, Democracy, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Europe

79. Turkey at 100 | Reassessing Turkey's National Identity: A Century of Change

Author:: Jenny White, Ali Yaycioglu, Kemal Kirisci, Mustafa Akyol, Gulseren Onanc, Can Candan, and Michael Harris
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: This year marks the centenary of the establishment of the Turkish Republic. To reflect on this occasion, assess current realities, and discuss Turkey's future, the Middle East Institute's Turkish Studies Program is pleased to announce its 12th Annual Turkey Conference, which will be convened on Dec. 6, 2023, at the historical National Press Building, in downtown Washington, D.C. We look forward to hosting you for a full day of insightful and timely conversations on how Turkey's identity has changed in the last 100 years, the health of the country's democracy, the evolving direction of Ankara's foreign and regional policies, and its relationship with the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Ideology, and Identity
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

80. The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea

Author:: Shadi Hamid and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: In The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea, author Shadi Hamid explores what he describes as the ‘democratic dilemma,’ the U.S. desire for democracy in theory but not in practice. Hamid cites the rise of Islamist parties during a wave of democratic elections across the Middle East, which he argues produced outcomes the U.S. was not intending, such as the empowerment of Hamas in Gaza following the 2006 Palestinian elections. Reviewing the lessons learned from the past two decades of U.S. policy in the Middle East, Hamid proposes ‘democratic minimalism’ as a new approach to democracy promotion. Instead of viewing democracy as a tool to usher in liberalism, economic development, and cultural progress, Hamid argues that democracy as an end in of itself should be prioritized over other liberal values. Please join us at the Middle East Institute for an in-person discussion with author Shadi Hamid and Thomas Carothers, Co-Director and Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on the strategy of U.S. democracy promotion abroad, the consequences of the democratic push in the early twenty-first century and the future shape of governance systems globally. Gönül Tol, MEI Senior Fellow and Director of the Turkey Program, will moderate the discussion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Islamism, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

81. Why El Salvador’s Anti-Crime Measures Cannot (and Should Not) Be Exported

Author:: Tiziano Breda
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: One year has passed since El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele launched a “war on gangs”, embedded in a state of exception that has since been renewed monthly. The government claims to have arrested 66,000 alleged gang members, projecting the image of an upfront battle against criminal organisations that has yielded results in bringing down murder rates. This has earned Bukele the approval not only of most Salvadorans, but millions of citizens throughout Latin America. His methods have become a foreign policy tool and a driver of electoral disputes in the region. But are they “exportable” to other countries? And should they?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Crime, Human Rights, Law Enforcement, Democracy, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: South America, North America, El Salvador, and United States of America

82. New political equations in Europe one year before the European elections

Author:: Pascale Joannin
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Europe is facing a situation that it never thought it would have to face again: there is now a war on its borders, whereas since 1950 the European project has been built on peace ("Never again"), and as a result the return of power struggles which is forcing Europe to adapt its rules so that it can remain relevant in the global competition. In these circumstances, the European elections of spring 2024 (6-9 June) represent a political opportunity to assert and strengthen Europe's place and weight on the international scene. This election will be the starting point for an almost complete renewal of the European institutions with the appointment of the Commission and the designation of a new President of the European Council. Therefore, a crucial political year lies ahead[1]. What does the political landscape in Europe look like one year before this major electoral event?
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Citizenship, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

83. How to make legal life easier for European citizens ?

Author:: Laurence Leguil
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Being born and growing up, settling down, often starting a family, welcoming a child, sometimes separating, growing old and saying goodbye to loved ones: this has been the human journey since the dawn of time. The notary accompanies the citizen through these key stages. Because their clientele is so varied, notaries are increasingly having to deal with complex cases: a family member lives or has married in another Member State; a property is located abroad; a will has been filed with a solicitor in another country because it was drawn up when the person was expatriated, etc. Although these situations are not part of the everyday life of Europe's 53,000 notaries, they are becoming less and less marginal and mean that we need to find innovative solutions to resolve new difficulties: accessing a foreign law, addressing administrative procedures in other Member States, unrecognised legal situations, etc. It should be recognised that since the Tampere European Summit in 1999, which established the area of Freedom, Security and Justice, European civil law has evolved considerably, making the task of judges and legal practitioners much easier. However, European citizens still face a number of very real difficulties. Notaries are there to provide solutions. We have identified a number of issues: family life, the transfer of assets, support for vulnerable adults and the circulation of public documents.
Topic:: Democracy, Citizenship, Bureaucracy, and Civil Law
Political Geography:: Europe

84. The New Crusades: Islamophobia and the Global War on Muslims — by Khaled A. Beydoun

Author:: Khaled A. Beydoun
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Discover a groundbreaking exploration of Islamophobia on a global scale in 'The New Crusades' by Khaled A. Beydoun. This seminal book offers an unprecedented deep dive into how both democratic and authoritarian regimes worldwide are exploiting Islamophobia to target Muslim populations. Beydoun meticulously analyzes the impact of the American War on Terror, revealing its pivotal role in amplifying and interconnecting anti-Muslim campaigns across continents. From Europe to Asia, the Middle East, and beyond, 'The New Crusades' provides a critical and intimate examination of Islamophobia's diverse manifestations. This is the first book to offer such a comprehensive analysis, making it a must-read for anyone seeking to understand the complexities of global Islamophobia and its far-reaching consequences.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Islamophobia, Muslims, and Book Talk
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Global Focus

85. Safeguarding Democracy against Disinformation: Insights from Taiwanese Civil Society

Author:: Nelson Wen
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: On August 2, 2022, pedestrians near convenience stores and a few public spaces around Taiwan began noticing that the content on digital billboards had been replaced with strident messages in Chinese, such as “Greater China will ultimately be unified!” That same month, the websites of a Taiwan university and other organizations were defaced with messages, including “There is only one China in the world!” Meanwhile, the military of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was conducting days of drills and missile launches on a scale previously unseen, though certain photos and videos claiming to show Chinese military exercises near Taiwan were later proven by Taiwan-based fact-checking organizations to be doctored or fabricated. This combination of disinformation, military saber rattling and hacking activity was the latest example of what Taiwan authorities, scholars and civil society have termed “cognitive warfare.” The experiences of Taiwan in trying to protect the integrity of its information environment against such influence attempts merit close attention from all societies and the United States in particular. This is because Taiwan provides a model for a multifaceted, grassroots response to combat disinformation, and also because a large proportion of disinformation in Taiwan relates to discrediting the United States as a reliable security partner.[ii] Based on interviews with a select group of Taiwan non-governmental organizations (NGOs), this article will illustrate how parts of Taiwan’s civil society are dealing with the challenges posed by foreign and homegrown disinformation.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democracy, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

86. International Impact of American Politics

Author:: Victor H. Ashe
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: The divisiveness of American politics has always been around at some level since World War II, but it seems to have reached new heights in 2022. Among negative consequences, some candidates whose qualifications seem hard to discern were elected. However, we live in a democracy, and voters are entitled to their views even if they may be mistaken. Robust debate is vital, but in many cases candidates from both American political parties have refused to appear together to debate. This is especially unfortunate in my view as voters should be able to see and hear opposing candidates debate each other. The presidential candidates in both Brazil and France appeared together in 2022. Yet it is not clear that 2024 will see our two major party nominees sharing the same stage to debate. Even on a local level where I live in Knoxville, Tennessee, several Republican candidates from local to federal levels simply declined to debate their Democratic opponents or respond to questions. Several of those GOP nominees were articulate and could have held their own but opted not to showcase themselves. Such an attitude is wrong in my view and totally driven by narrow partisan political considerations. It deprives voters of a first-hand view of the opposing candidates.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

87. Book Launch & Talk: Japan’s Quiet Leadership: Reshaping the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Mireya Solís and Gerald Curtis
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Dr. Mireya Solís of the Brookings Institution will lead a talk and Q&A session on her new book Japan’s Quiet Leadership: Reshaping the Indo-Pacific scheduled for release on 1 September 2023. The book delves into Japan's transformation into a significant player in the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, highlighting its strengths in democratic resilience, social stability, and proactive diplomacy, while addressing pressing issues such as depopulation, rising inequality, and regional peace threats.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Democracy, Inequality, Leadership, Resilience, Social Stability, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

88. Paths to Democratic Resilience in an Era of Backsliding

Author:: Erica Shein, Cassandra Emmons, Kyle Lemargie, and Fernanda Buril
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: Despite some bright spots, the anti-democratic challenges of the day are not fading fast. Investing in democratic resilience is increasingly essential, as autocrats — who governed 72 percent of the global population at the close of 2022 — go to ever greater lengths to preserve and expand their power. Unlike in eras past, contemporary autocrats seek not to replace democracy with a competing ideology but to manipulate the democratic system to achieve their own ends. This paper lays out a detailed approach to building democratic resilience in countries facing democratic erosion, democratic breakdown, and autocratic deepening. Investments in resilience may take different forms: In some cases, we may be able to help a democracy “bounce back” from episodes of backsliding; at other times, we may need to support democracy to enable it to persist in diminished form, reinforce what remains of the democratic architecture, or simply preserve the normative foundation and public demand for democracy for a future opening. The paper offers a framework for choosing interventions that are most likely to succeed based on the relevant backsliding context. With this framework, we seek to shift the question from whether support is feasible or desirable in a backsliding context to how the international community can best support a democracy that is encountering any form of backsliding.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Resilience, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

89. Kleptocracy versus Democracy

Author:: Guido Lanfranchi and Anette Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Throughout Sudan’s history, key security actors have shaped the distribution of power and wealth, effectively consolidating both in the hands of their loyal supporters and business partners. The resulting political economy has outlived the country’s long-term dictator Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted by a popular uprising in 2019, it has obstructed the country’s ensuing transition to democracy, and it continues to undermine present attempts at ending the war. While individuals, alliances and businesses change over time, the mechanisms deployed by these networks to retain and expand power have remained the same. They have created an ecosystem that impedes rather than enabling competition and growth, holding Sudan’s private sector hostage to their own power ambitions. Yet, amidst this history of political instability and repression, a whole parallel, largely informal, economy has existed, and sometimes thrived. Businesses of different sizes and from various sectors have shown resilience and have nevertheless found different ways of operating, creating employment and offering much-needed products and services, even in times of war. While the majority of the pre-war Sudanese private sector was not independent, but rather depended on – and in some cases benefited from – the predatory kleptocracy, a small segment of business owners lacked political connections or decided not to leverage them. During the 2019-2021 transition these entrepreneurs doubled down their efforts, and showed perseverance and innovation to survive and cope. This segment of Sudan’s private sector, rather than the country’s security actors and affiliated businesses, will have to play a critical role in Sudan’s reconstruction after the war. The war that continues to rage in Sudan has a disastrous impact on the economy, and the financial resources required for reconstruction will be immense. To move towards the end of the war and to prepare for reconstruction, this report advocates a two-pronged approach. On the one hand, the predatory securitybusiness networks that have underpinned Sudan’s history of conflict and that sustain the present war must be systematically dismantled, so that they cannot fuel the current war or hijack any post-war transition. On the other hand, and simultaneously, the beleaguered private sector that did not benefit from support under al-Bashir’s rule, needs to be empowered, so that it can survive the war and play a role in the reconstruction. Dismantling Sudan’s security-business networks and empowering its productive private sector are complementary efforts. Together, these efforts can help to break the cycle of inequality and violence, and support Sudan’s transition towards democracy and civilian rule.
Topic:: Security, Civil War, Democracy, Kleptocracy, and Instability
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

90. Ukraine’s political model recast: Assessing new opportunities and risks

Author:: Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The Ukrainian political model is in flux. The war against Russia has eroded the core elements of the old order, in which elections were a focal point of the political contestation and the main mechanism for resolving political conflicts. Oligarchs have lost their critical role in Ukrainian politics. Their impact on the media and the party system has weakened considerably, which is a very positive development for the country’s democratic progress. At the same time, the disappearance of the oligarchs as a quasi-institution facilitates the process of power concentration around President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Office. Given the absence of elections due to martial law, this poses the risk that the new political model might be tailored to the incumbent’s needs to the detriment of the public interest. As the war becomes protracted, societal pressure to reactivate comprehensive reforms in the country, including the fight against corruption, is increasing. This creates certain tensions between the national leaders and the general public. Ostensibly, the incumbent president cannot and will not be able to ignore this demand, especially if it is firmly and consistently supported by Western actors.
Topic:: Democracy, Oligarchy, Domestic Politics, Economic Policy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

91. Reflections on Nigeria’s Elections: Threats, potential outcomes and relevance to democracy in West Africa

Author:: Paul Osei-Kuffour
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: The upcoming presidential election in Nigeria has generated huge interest and enthusiasm within the sub-region. The election has been described as the most competitive since returning to multi-party democracy in 1999. This paper reflects on the prevailing context barely one month into the election. It discusses the relevance of the election to the sub-region, major reforms around the election and why it is receiving enormous attention in Nigeria and the whole of West Africa. It concludes with an analysis of the factors shaping the potential outcome of the election.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Nigeria

92. The Democratic Quality of Primaries in Ghana: A Look at the 2020 NPP Internal Party Elections

Author:: Gildfred Boateng Asiamah, Francisca Sarpong Owusu, and Alfred Torsu
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: In Ghana, political party primaries are not only a democratic imperative but also a constitutional requirement. However, no laws regulate the conduct of political party primaries in Ghana. Even the involvement of the national election management body, the Electoral Commission (EC), is limited to the counting and declaration of votes. This paper shares insights on the extent to which the parliamentary primaries conform to fundamental principles of democratic elections and identifies the mechanisms that party executives and leadership use to circumvent the democratic processes.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Political Parties, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

93. Why Democracies Implement Better Climate Actions: Case Study of India, the Philippines, and Japan

Author:: Niranjan Sahoo and Jisoo Park
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Asia is the most populous and one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world. Long coastline, vast low lying areas comprising many small island nations make it highly susceptible to climate change such as rising sea level and extreme weather events like floods, landslides. For many critics, democracies' response to climate change is much impeded due to their slow decision-making process and short-termism governed by electoral compulsions. Some analysts go as far as to claim that authoritarianism is needed to tackle the crisis more effectively. However, close examination of different governance structure's climate actions strongly supports that democracies are inherently better at handling climate crisis compared to authoritarian regimes. This article explores the multifaceted impact of climate change to democracy and delves into the case studies of India, the Philippines, and Japan to identify strengths as well as areas of improvement that democracies should consider to establish meaningful climate actions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Japan, India, Asia, and Philippines

94. Shifting Paradigms: The Rise of the Move Forward Party and the Changing Face of Thai Democracy

Author:: Napon Jatusripitak
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: In light of the 2023 general election in Thailand that delivered a surprise victory for the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP), Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting research fellow at the ISEAS ? Yusof Ishak Institute, analyzes the shifting political dynamics in the country and explains the key to MFP’s success. With the election outcome reflecting public’s heightened awareness and desire for political participation and citizen engagement, Thai politics seems prepared for transition from the conservative status quo. Nevertheless, Jatusripitak emphasizes that a sustainable change in domestic governance depends on the MFP’s capacity to carry out the drive for democracy and the conservative establishment’s willingness to accept and adjust.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Social Media, Political Parties, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: Thailand and Southeast Asia

95. The Demise of ‘Hybrid’ Democracy in Pakistan: Case of Ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Arrest

Author:: Haider Kaleem
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Following the arrest of Pakistan`s former Prime Minister Imran Khan, social unrest and civil-military tension continue to grip the country. Haider Kaleem, a development researcher and journalist in Pakistan, attributes the current democratic crisis to the longstanding practice of military intervention in the country`s political affairs. Pointing out that the general mass is not adequately represented in the political discussions, Kaleem argues that Pakistan`s democracy will remain impaired until the power to form or dismantle regimes is transferred from the military to the hands of the people.
Topic:: Democracy, Domestic Politics, Civil-Military Relations, Civil Unrest, and Imran Khan
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

96. Recent Defamation Case and Mounting State Onslaughts Against Political Opposition in India

Author:: Niranjan Sahoo
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Niranjan Sahoo, a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), assesses the current state of political opposition in India. Highlighting the recent defamation case against the key opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, Sahoo points out that the current Bharatiya Janata Party government has consistently deployed state agencies and has taken advantage of its brute majority in the lower house of Parliament to weaken and silence the opposition voice. Questioning the sustainability of this rare occasion of unity among the opposition parties over Mr. Gandhi`s disqualification, Sahoo paints a grim outlook for India’s democracy should the marginalization of opposition voices continue.
Topic:: Democracy, Domestic Politics, Narendra Modi, Opposition, and Defamation
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

97. Japan’s Gradual Move to Address Technological Challenges to Democracy

Author:: Maiko Ichihara
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Maiko Ichihara, a professor at Hitotsubashi University Graduate School of Law, explores the challenges that technological advancements pose to democracy and analyzes Japan’s recent efforts to regulate disinformation and protect private data. Despite the absence of global regulations on digital technology, Ichihara highlights Japan’s domestic fact-checking efforts as well as its multilateral initiatives with G7 to create action plans promoting international cooperation against disinformation and data privacy abuse. In order to bolster democracy in the digital realm, she advocates for a proactive development of counter-narratives to fake news on social media.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Democracy, Regulation, Privacy, Social Media, G7, Disinformation, Data Collection, and Digital Space
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

98. Upcoming Elections and Political Turmoil in Pakistan

Author:: Ahmed Bilal Mehboob
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: As the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) delayed a key provincial election due to financial and security-related issues, a potential constitutional crisis looms over the country. In light of the deepening political turmoil in Pakistan, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob explores how this crisis has developed and offers a grim outlook of holding a free and fair election this year. Mehboob argues that the former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s audacious move to seek fresh elections to both the National and Provincial Assemblies have exacerbated party polarization, and Supreme Court decisions for the court cases are unlikely to be fully enforced due to such divide. Mehboob warns that prolonged political crisis may induce military intervention to restore order so that the elections could be pushed ahead.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Constitution, Domestic Politics, Supreme Court, and Imran Khan
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

99. Indonesia’s ASEAN Chairmanship: Challenges for Strengthening Democracy Agenda in ASEAN

Author:: Lidya C. Sinaga
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Lidya Christin Sinaga analyzes the internal and external challenges that Indonesia, as the Chair of ASEAN, faces in promoting the principles of democracy in the organization`s agenda. Sinaga claims that the recent cases of Indonesia`s democratic regression have damaged the credibility of its sincerity in spreading democracy in Southeast Asia. On the other end, the ASEAN member states’ growing emphasis on economic performance as their source of legitimacy complicates the regional organization`s commitment to democratic values. Given that the ASEAN has limited influence on its member states’ respective political 시스템s, whether Indonesia can successfully implement democratic agenda this year depends on the extent of the members’ willingness to engage in meaningful political communication. Finally, Sinaga argues that bolstering commitment to democracy within the ASEAN can only be successful when every member states recognize that democratic principles are critical for regional prosperity.
Topic:: Democracy, Economy, ASEAN, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

100. Restoring Democracy in Myanmar: A Call for Bolstered Anti-Junta Resistance Forces

Author:: Lin Htet Myat
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: February 2023 marks the second anniversary of the military coup in Myanmar that ousted its civilian government and cracked down on democratic protests. Lin Htet Myat, a political analyst from Myanmar, assesses the grim situation in the country and offers new approaches that both the international community and the Burmese anti-junta forces should take to facilitate the restoration of democracy. The author argues that the international community must not engage the junta to seek for a peaceful resolution, and instead strengthen material support and communication with anti-junta forces within Myanmar. Meanwhile, Burmese democratic resistance forces should bolster military cooperation among like-minded groups and build trust in preparation for a federal democratic Myanmar.
Topic:: Democracy, Coup, Humanitarian Crisis, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Asia and Myanmar

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS