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1. The Invisible Leverage of the Top 1 Percent: Absentee Debtors and Their Hedge Funds

Author:
Stefano Sgambati
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
The existing literature on finance, debt and inequality depicts economic elites as a creditor class. According to a popular thesis, over the past four decades, the rich and ultra-rich households in the top 1 percent have experienced a saving glut (excess income), which they have invested in the debts of the poor and their governments. While it is undeniable that the rich have expanded their income share at the expenses of the poor, to refer to them as ‘creditors’ or ‘lenders’ is a misrepresentation of how they actually expand their wealth and income shares by financial means. For it conceals the fact that a great deal of their investments is leveraged, that is, carried out with borrowed money. This article shows that the debts generated by individuals and households in the top 1 percent easily surpass those of all other households and even exceed those of the most indebted states in the world. However, these debts are hard to estimate, and indeed they are not accounted for in statistics on household debt. This is because households in the top 1 percent do not borrow from banks, like normal households do, but they are instead absentee debtors who borrow through the hedge funds, private equity firms, personal investment trusts, and big banks of which they are dominant shareholders and ultimate beneficiaries. To gain an insight into their invisible leverage, the article looks at how much hedge funds borrow, and why their leverage matters.
Topic:
Debt, Political Economy, Inequality, Finance, Elites, Hedge Funds, and Leverage
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Three risks that must be addressed for new European Union fiscal rules to succeed

Author:
Lucio Pench
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The debate on the reform of the European Union’s fiscal rules, the Stability and Growth Pact, has largely focused on their design. This nearly exclusive focus has distracted attention from the equally, if not more, important aspects of implementation. The reform, completed in April 2024, left implementation unaddressed, or at least open to very different potential outcomes. In particular, the reform failed to clarify the interplay between EU countries’ medium-term fiscal structural plans (MTFSPs), which embody the new focus on debt sustainability, and the excessive deficit procedure (EDP), which remains the main enforcement tool under the rules. The need for clarification is urgent as several countries are set to enter EDPs for breaching the SGP’s 3 percent of GDP deficit threshold at the same time as their first MTFSPs are endorsed in autumn 2024. There is a risk that the adjustment paths prescribed by EDPs may be at least temporarily less demanding than the debt-sustainability requirements of the MTFSPs would normally imply. Even if consistency between EDPs and MTFSPs is ensured from the start, inconsistencies may arise over time and be resolved in a way that further postpones the necessary adjustment. The main risk is that the 3 percent of GDP deficit might be perceived as the only target that matters for countries that enter EDPs in 2024, as repeated revisions of the MTFSPs undermine the cogency of the debt sustainability requirements. This scenario is likely to materialise if the countries are allowed to exit their EDPs upon bringing their deficits to or below 3 percent of GDP, while being still far from the necessary correction of the debt trajectory. It is important to shape countries’ expectations on the implementation of the upcoming EDPs in a way that is conducive to the immediate internalisation of the debt sustainability constraint implied by the new rules, rather than allowing it to be viewed as a distant objective. This change in expectations could be achieved by clarifying that, even if a country has been placed in an EDP only for breach of the deficit criterion, it should also satisfy the debt criterion for the procedure to be abrogated.
Topic:
Debt, Reform, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Europe

3. The Greek Tragedy: Narratives and Imagined Futures in the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis

Author:
Jens Beckert and Hans Lukas Richard Arndt
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Between 2009 and 2015 Greece underwent a profound sovereign debt crisis that led to a serious political crisis in Europe and the restructuring of Greek debt. We argue that the prevalence of negative narratives about the future contributed to the changes in spreads of Greek bonds during the crisis. We support our argument by presenting results from text mining a corpus of 9,435 articles from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal. Based on sentiments and a machine learning model predicting future reference, we identify newspaper articles which generate negative and uncertain outlooks for the future in the expert discourse. We provide evidence from time series regression analysis showing that these negative imagined futures have explanatory power in models estimating spread development of Greek vs. German sovereign bonds. We suggest that these findings provide good evidence for the relevance of “imagined futures” for investors’ behavior, and give directions for an innovative contribution of sociology to understanding the microfoundations of financial crises.
Topic:
Debt, Financial Crisis, Financial Markets, Future, Sovereign Debt, Economic Sociology, Sentiment Analysis, and Valuation
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

4. Triffin Reloaded: The Matrix of Contradictions around Global Quasi-State Money

Author:
Herman Mark Schwartz
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
What explains the US dollar’s role in the global economy and the tensions affecting its likely persistence? Most analyses start from Triffin’s dilemma, which accurately captured specific but partial tensions of a global monetary system based on essentially fixed exchange rates, gold backing for its core currency, and relatively robust capital controls. Triffin’s approach, and those based on it, struggles to explain the tensions in a system with floating exchange rates and fiat money, because Triffin and successors assume a commodity theory of money, a loanable funds model for credit creation, and the “triple coincidence” of monetary, legal, and economic zones. Approaching the question from different premises – chartalist money, endogenous credit creation, and interlocked global balance sheets – enables us to see four factors behind the antinomies or dilemmas that structure the dynamics and durability of US dollar centrality. Those four factors are adequate credit creation and thus global aggregate demand growth, current account deficits for the core, domestic legitimacy in major economies, and the dollar’s status as global quasi-state money.
Topic:
Debt, Money, Currency, Power, Financial Systems, Geoeconomics, and Reserves
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

5. Mapping Fragility – Functions of Wealth and Social Classes in US Household Finance

Author:
Orsola Costantini and Carlo D'Ippoliti
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Which households are more exposed to financial risk and to what extent is their debt systemically relevant? To provide an answer, we advance a new classification of the population, adapted from Fessler and Schürz (2017), based on the type of wealth families own and their sources of income. Then, we investigate data from eleven waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), a triennial survey run by the U.S. Federal Reserve, to explore the association of different debt configurations and motives to get into debt with our class distinctions. Our new approach allows us to assess competing hypotheses about debt and financial vulnerability that have so far been analyzed separately in disconnected strands of literature. The results of our study reinforce and qualify the controversial hypothesis that relative poverty and inequality of income and access to services have been important factors explaining household indebtedness and its relationship with economic growth over time.
Topic:
Debt, Poverty, Inequality, Finance, Fragility, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

6. Monetary Policy and Illiquidity

Author:
Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The discussion of financial stability, and the role of monetary policy, is incoherent because there is very little agreement on what constitutes financial stability (and, by implication, instability) - exchange rate stability, asset price stability, absence of debt default. By implication, there is a gap between the claims of various authors to the general applicability of their respective analyses, and the actual applicability of their conclusions, let alone the usefulness of some of their policy recommendations. The paper argues that the key issue is the regulation of the liquidity of all financial markets, and not just that of the banking system, through the markets for government securities. The paper examines the sources of this liquidity in the financial portfolios of the private sector, and how that liquidity may be managed through the open market operations of central banks and the debt management operations of governments. An implication of this approach is yield curve control and the use of (government) debt management to control the liquidity of the markets. These elements of monetary policy have been neglected in theory and policy since the 1950s.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Banking, and Liquidity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Strategies to future-proof Zambia: Debt relief and beyond

Author:
Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Debt relief negotiations are currently taking place, with Zambia expected to be the first country to receive debt relief under the newly created G20 Common Framework. However, the process faces challenges, with China and the United States trading accusations of impeding the process. Some of Zambia's creditors have also been unwilling to agree to write off some of the country's debt. Positively, innovative approaches to debt relief have been proposed that would support Zambia's net-zero ambitions and promote sustainable development, such as debt for nature swaps. The integration of Zambia into the European Union's Critical Minerals framework could further support and assist Zambia in attaining a deal. Without a deal, Zambia risks being plunged into further macroeconomic uncertainty at a time when the country needs investment to capitalise on opportunities presented by political stability and structurally higher prices for copper and other critical minerals with which Zambi a is endowed.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Natural Resources, Political stability, Mining, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

8. Paying with Austerity: The Debt Crisis and Restructuring in Sri Lanka

Author:
C. P. Chandrasekhar, Jayati Ghosh, and Debamanyu Das
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
On April 12, 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on external debt service commitments. Announcing the “pre-emptive default,” pending restructuring, the government also announced that it was suspending repayments due in 2022 on its external debt. By May, Sri Lanka was formally in default, becoming the first country in the Asia-Pacific region to default on debt in two decades. There were medium-term factors that underlay the crisis, not least of which was the chronic dependence on foreign finance, especially debt, to cover widening current account deficits that followed the IMF-inspired and dictated embrace of liberalization policies starting in the late 1970s. In recent years, following the global financial crisis and the end of the civil war in 2009, this dependence on external borrowings intensified. There was also a dramatic shift towards bilaterally, besides multilaterally, financed investment projects and increasing reliance on the bond market, partly to meet debt service commitments on accumulated debt. Given this vulnerability, a crisis was precipitated by a collapse in foreign exchange receipts during the Covid pandemic, due to falling exports, near-zero tourist arrivals and reduced remittances and the subsequent spike in the outflow of foreign exchange because of the speculation-induced rise in the prices of fuel and food. This paper details the events which culminated in the Sri Lankan debt crisis, assesses the appropriateness of the official, IMF-prescribed strategy of adjustment and debt restructuring, considers the experience with restructuring thus far, and explores alternatives that would have been, and could still be, less regressive and ensure sustainable development.
Topic:
Debt, Political Economy, Finance, Austerity, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

9. Development Finance at a Turning Point: Effects and Policy Recommendations

Author:
Kathrin Berensmann, Sabine Laudage Teles, Christoph Sommer, and Yabibal M. Walle
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Development finance is at a turning point, as the macroeconomic environment has changed profoundly and the financing gap for low- and middle-income countries has widened. The events that led to this new situation are the multiple crises that the global economy is facing, such as the climate crisis, the COVID-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine. As a result, interest rates have risen sharply over the past year and are not expected to decline anytime soon. High interest rates further restrict low- and middle-income countries’ access to international financial markets by making borrowing more expensive. At the same time, debt levels in several countries are rising to levels that are almost impossible to repay. Poorer countries find themselves in a trap where financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) becomes a distant goal for them. To “get back on track” in financing the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs, a number of reform proposals have been put forward within several processes and initiatives, including the Financing for Development (FfD) process, the Bridgetown Initiative and the Macron-led Paris Summit. Despite being initiated by different actors, these proposals all highlight the importance of reforming the international financial architecture in view of the changed macroeconomic environment. The Hamburg Sustainability Conference in June 2024, the United Nation’s Summit of the Future in 2024 and the next FfD Conference in 2025 should be used to strengthen and accelerate ongoing reform processes and come up with new, innovative and bold proposals to reshape development finance in these challenging times. Against the background of the multiple crises and its effects, our key recommendations for the reform of development finance are as follows.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Reform, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:
Germany and Global Focus

10. The Insurance Implications of Government Student Loan Repayment Schemes

Author:
Martin Gervais, Qian Liu, and Lance Lochner
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP), Western University
Abstract:
A large literature examines the extent to which consumption responds to idiosyncratic earnings shocks.1 This paper studies whether student loan repayments serve as a source of insurance, much like government tax and transfer programs.2 Indeed, this insurance mechanism is an explicit aim of formal income-contingent repayment schemes in many countries, where the efficient structure of contingencies depends on such market frictions as moral hazard, adverse selection, and costly income verification (Lochner and Monge-Naranjo, 2016). We use new administrative data that links detailed information on Canadian student loan recipients with their repayment and income histories from the Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP), income tax filings, and post-secondary schooling records to measure the extent to which student borrowers adjust loan repayments to insure against income variation.3 Several mechanisms are available for students to adjust loan repayments in response to income fluctuations: formal, like CSLP’s Repayment Assistance Plan (RAP); and informal, such as delinquency or default. Close to 30% of students are enrolled in RAP soon after graduation, although that fraction falls as incomes rise thereafter. ∗ Gervais: University of Georgia, Athens, mgervaisca@gmail.com. Liu: Brock University, St. Catharines, Canada, qliu@brocku.ca. Lochner: Western University, London, Canada, llochner@uwo.ca. We thank the Statistics Canada Research Data Centres at Western University and McMaster University. Lochner gratefully acknowledge support from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. 1See, e.g., the survey by Meghir and Pistaferri (2011) and references therein. 2Brzozowski et al. (2010) show that the tax and transfer system in Canada is very effective at absorbing income movements. 3Lochner, Liu and Gervais (2021) document sizable transfers implicit in the CSLP through differences in repayment by expected post-school income. Within 5 years of graduation, nearly 10% of borrowers have defaulted on their debt. In addition, borrowers can make larger payments than required should they experience unexpectedly high income: 40% of borrowers have fully repaid their student debt within 5 years of graduation. Indeed, loan payments are shown to increase in income, more so in early years and for individuals with higher initial debt. More formally, we estimate that on average, an unexpected $1,000 change in yearover-year income is associated with a $30 change in loan payment: from a $50 change the year after graduation, declining to a $20 change 5 years after graduation. Loan repayments are also used to absorb income variation that is more permanent in nature: for borrowers whose income is consistently below or above expected income at graduation, the magnitude of average repayment adjustment is similar to the average yearly response.
Topic:
Debt, Education, Economy, Insurance, and Student Loans
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

11. The rising cost of European Union borrowing and what to do about it

Author:
Gregory Claeys and Conor McCaffrey
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Debt issuance by the European Commission on behalf of the European Union has increased massively. Of the approximately €400 billion in outstanding EU debt as of May 2023, 85 percent has arisen from borrowing since 2020. Large-scale borrowing is expected to continue until 2026 to fund the remainder of NextGenerationEU, and concessional loans to support Ukraine. When these programmes were launched, interest rates were at historic lows – even negative for maturities below 10 years. However, interest rates rose sharply in 2022. Beyond the widespread rise in euro-denominated interest rates due to monetary tightening by the European Central Bank in response to the inflation surge, the EU has also faced a widening of the spread between its yields and those of major European issuers, including France and Germany. This widening is driven by a combination of market features, circumstantial factors and institutional features. The EU cannot affect the overall cyclical movement of interest rates and will have to learn to live with it, like sovereigns do. However, the European Commission should continue to try to narrow the spread with major European sovereigns by further developing the relevant market infrastructure and improving its issuance strategy. The Commission will not be able to do this alone. Institutional developments, including progress on the development of new own resources and a long-term substantial presence in the bond market, will be necessary to fully reap the benefits of EU borrowing. A large share of EU borrowing (around €421 billion in total by the end of 2026, in current prices) is intended to finance unprecedented non-repayable support: Recovery and Resilience Fund grants and additional funding for existing EU programmes under the EU budget. The interest costs associated with this part of the debt lie with the EU budget. Our estimates suggest that, because of the high current and expected levels of interest rates, this cost could be twice as high as what was initially estimated at the start of the EU’s 2021-27 budget cycle. As a result, because interest costs for the borrowing of the non-repayable support are accounted for under the EU budget’s ‘expenditure ceiling’, this will exert further pressure on the funding of important EU programmes, which are already affected by inflation. The EU should thus quickly review how interest costs are accounted for in its budget and financial framework.
Topic:
Debt, Budget, European Union, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

12. China as an International Lender of Last Resort

Author:
Sebastian Horn, Bradley C. Parks, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China’s overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into China’s growing role in the global financial system. A key finding is that the global swap line network put in place by the People’s Bank of China is increasingly used as a financial rescue mechanism, with more than USD 170 billion in liquidity support extended to crisis countries, including repeated rollovers of swaps coming due. The swaps bolster gross reserves and are mostly drawn by distressed countries with low liquidity ratios. In addition, we show that Chinese state-owned banks and enterprises have given out an additional USD 70 billion in rescue loans for balance of payments support. Taken together, China’s overseas bailouts correspond to more than 20 percent of total IMF lending over the past decade and bailout amounts are growing fast. However, China’s rescue loans differ from those of established international lenders of last resort in that they (i) are opaque, (ii) carry relatively high interest rates, and (iii) are almost exclusively targeted to debtors of China's Belt and Road Initiative. These findings have implications for the international financial and monetary architecture, which is becoming more multipolar, less institutionalized, and less transparent.
Topic:
Debt, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

13. Istanbul Journal of Economics: Volume 73 Issue 2

Author:
Gökhan Karabulut
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published two times a year in June and December. It has been an official publication of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics since 1939. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English. Being one of the earliest peer-reviewed academic journals in Turkey in the area of economics, Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi aims to provide a forum for exploring issues in basicly economics and publish both disciplinary and multidisciplinary articles. Economics is the main scope of the journal. However, multidisciplinary and comparative approaches are encouraged as well and articles from various social science areas such as sociology of economics, history, social policy, international relations, financial studies are welcomed in this regard. The target group of the journal consists of academicians, researchers, professionals, students, related professional and academic bodies and institutions.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Globalization, Tourism, Capitalism, Finance, Ethics, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

14. Towards a Sustainable Recovery for Lebanon’s Economy

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Ugo Panizza, Carmen Reinhart, Douglas Barrios, and Clement Brenot
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Lebanon’s current economic crisis ranks among the worst in recent history. GDP has collapsed by 38% in real terms. The Lebanese lira, which was fixed to the dollar in 1997, has lost more than 98% of its value on the parallel market. The government has defaulted on its debt, and depositors are unable to access their funds held at commercial banks. Consolidated public sector debt, including both government debt and commercial banks’ claims on the Banque du Liban (BdL), represents more than seven times the current GDP. Public services delivery has crumbled. In short, the country is undergoing a debt crisis, a banking crisis, a currency crisis, and a growth collapse. Four years into the crisis, a resolution remains elusive, and each passing day increases the economic and social burdens faced by the population. Given the increasing cost of delaying a resolution, we propose a strategy for Lebanon’s economic recovery that addresses all the dimensions of the crisis while recognizing the need to rapidly kick-start the economic recovery.
Topic:
Debt, GDP, Economy, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

15. Is the Devil in the Details? A Rare Look into a BRI Contract in Kyrgyzstan

Author:
Michael Schroeder
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
This analysis delves into the concerns surrounding debt-trap diplomacy in Kyrgyzstan by examining a leaked loan contract of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for the construction of the Alternative North-South Road. This unique occasion—as contracts are usually shrouded in confidentiality—sheds light on the dynamics of BRI lending in the region and on a global level. The analysis considers the political and economic implications of China's investments in Kyrgyzstan, aiming at investigating whether the investment is geared toward exerting political influence, as has been suggested by the active political debate around the narrative of debt-trap diplomacy. While acknowledging the limited data available, this analysis neither finds application for debt-trap diplomacy nor an active attempt by Chinese entities to utilize contractual provision, even though on paper the contract could allow for the latter. Despite the lack of hard evidence, the paper contributes to the academic debate by shifting attention from broader geopolitical considerations and the debt-trap narrative, to increased scrutiny of contractual provisions in large-scale infrastructure projects, in which BRI lending indeed appears to differentiate itself.
Topic:
Debt, Diplomacy, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Investment
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan

16. The Twilight of US Dollar Hegemony and the Coming Multipolar World

Author:
Armin Krishnan and Hanna Samir Kassab
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The hegemony of the dollar is fundamental to the primacy of the United States in the international system, perhaps even more so than US military superiority. The US government can afford to spend several times more on its armed forces than its military competitors because it has the ability to sustain seemingly unlimited levels of debt thanks to the relative strength of the US dollar. Other nations have been willing to buy US debt and hold large reserves of dollars, which has kept the value of the dollar reasonably stable compared to other currencies. The authors argue that there are clear signs that the dollar's hegemony is in decline and that this could lead to a multipolar world in which the United States is just one great power among others. The article will discuss the reasons why the US dollar is so important to US power, why the dollar's attractiveness is declining and how the unprecedented sanctions imposed by Russia in response to the Russian incursion into Ukraine may have inadvertently accelerated the emergence of a multipolar world.
Topic:
Debt, Sanctions, Armed Forces, Currency, Multipolarity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

17. Korea has increased its lending to emerging-market and developing economies but faces risks if their debt problems grow

Author:
Julieta Contreras and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Over the last few decades, South Korea has transitioned from an aid beneficiary to a provider of financial aid to emerging-market and developing economies (EMDEs). This Policy Brief examines Korea’s role as a creditor to EMDEs and how EMDE debt problems affect it as a creditor. For now, Korea’s direct exposure to EMDEs is not large. In 2021, the latest year with comprehensive data, the stock of Korea’s claims on EMDEs amounted to almost $11 billion, about 0.6 percent of its GDP. Although this share is larger than those of some countries with similar GDP per capita, such as Italy and Spain, it is well below the shares of others, such as China and Japan. The immediate risks from Korea’s lending are limited, but it is vulnerable to risks from a systemic EMDE debt crisis in other ways, particularly through trade. It is therefore in Korea’s interest to continue to play a constructive role in ongoing international efforts, especially through the G20, to establish more effective debt restructuring frameworks.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Emerging Markets, Markets, and Economies
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

18. The political economy of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador: Temporary bandages to permanent wounds?

Author:
Tobias Boos and Juan Grigera
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper provides a contextual analysis of the adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador. First, we outline the historical context and the political situation of the period 2019–24 that serve as context for the passage and implementation of the Bitcoin law (Decree No. 57). We identify the institutional and political context and the main areas of contention. Next, we delve into the macroeconomic context of El Salvador, outlining the fundamental features of its economy and highlighting how they relate to currency issues. Our analysis reveals that the adoption of Bitcoin cannot be understood without factoring in the mounting strains surrounding dollarization, remittances, and foreign debt. We conclude by putting forth a set of hypotheses regarding the potential dynamics and future of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador that point beyond Bukele’s tactics.
Topic:
Debt, Political Economy, Economy, Bitcoin, Digital Currency, Remittances, Dollarization, and Nayib Bukele
Political Geography:
Central America and El Salvador

19. European Union debt financing: leeway and barriers from a legal perspective

Author:
Sebastian Grund and Armin Steinbach
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
We explore legal leeway for two approaches to debt-financing European Union spending: creation of extra-budgetary, one-off and temporary EU funds to finance European public goods (similarly to NextGenerationEU), and debt-financing the EU’s regular budget, hence creating an on-budget, permanent borrowing capacity at EU level. We find that NGEU could in principle be replicated. This would require an amendment to the Own Resources Decision (ORD) – a unanimous Council decision that designates the main sources of EU financing and requires ratification by each member state – to authorise borrowing and specify how the borrowing proceeds are to be used. However, this approach would be constrained by the legal requirement that financing EU spending through ‘other revenues’ (as opposed to ‘own resources’ designated as such in the ORD) remain exceptional. As a result, no permanent EU tasks could be financed through NGEU-like funds and NGEU-like financing could not exceed financing through ‘own resources’. We also find that, while EU primary law does not stop the EU from debt-financing its budget, the scope for EU borrowing would remain severely limited compared to a sovereign state. The permissible amount of borrowing must be specified in the ORD and the EU must be able to meet its debt service in any year, which must be secured by a sufficient amount of (non-borrowed) own resources. Finally, considerable flexibility exists for the spending of borrowed funds, regardless of whether this occurs through new NGEU-like extrabudgetary funds or on budget. Borrowed funds could be allocated to climate funding, cohesion policy, infrastructure or research. In the event that borrowing proceeds are established as an ‘own resource’ in an appropriately amended ORD, borrowed funds could even be used for general financing of the EU budget.
Topic:
Debt, Markets, European Union, Finance, and Public Goods
Political Geography:
Europe

20. Life or Debt: The Stranglehold of Neocolonialism and Africa’s Search for Alternatives

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Dossier no. 63 explores the origins of the debt crisis in Africa, exposing the Western financial chokehold as its source and exploring what alternatives can be built.
Topic:
Debt, IMF, Sovereign Debt, and Neocolonialism
Political Geography:
Africa