Journal: - CIAO Search Results

601. Another Transatlanticism Is Possible: Europe’s Moment in Latin America amid Trump’s Return

Author:: Raffaele Piras
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited his hallmark “America First” agenda, with significant consequences for Latin America. During his inaugural address, Trump emphasised the need to regain US control of the Panama Canal, framing it as a cornerstone of national security amidst heightened competition with China.[1] This rhetoric marks the continuation of a policy approach that relies on coercion and transactional diplomacy to achieve US objectives. While Trump’s focus on Latin America will undoubtedly reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics, it also presents a strategic opportunity for the European Union to strengthen its role as a stabilising force and reliable partner.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

602. Building Ambition in the Run-up to Belém: Italy’s G7 Presidency on Climate and Energy

Author:: Margherita Bianchi and Chiara Scissa
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: A main priority of the 2024 Italian G7 presidency was to build stronger partnerships with African countries across a number of policy areas, including climate and energy. Italy pushed forward several G7 initiatives to tackle the adverse effects of climate change and resource scarcity in developing regions as well as to enhance energy access in Africa. Despite the relevance of these pledges, it is still unclear how these initiatives can align with, and maximise the impact of, existing climate- and energy-related projects set out in other fora. Still, the Italian G7 was successful in shedding light on the need for stronger intersectionality in G7 processes – finance, climate, infrastructure, food – and in advancing synergies with parallel G20 and climate conferences of the parties (COP) discussions. Canada, South Africa and Brazil, respectively holding the 2025 G7, G20 and COP30 Presidencies, can build on the lesson of the Italian G7 presidency, especially in light of the decreasing attention that major powers such as the United States are paying to multilateral governance regimes.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, G20, G7, and Energy
Political Geography:: Africa and Italy

603. The G7 and Sustainable Agri-Food Systems’ Transformation: Lessons Learned from the Italian Presidency

Author:: Daniele Fattibene
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Italy put a strong emphasis on food and nutrition security during its 2024 G7 Presidency, designing or scaling up plans to transform global food systems. Although the Italian presidency was able to gather consensus on key dimensions such as the food and climate nexus or development finance, structural weaknesses remain. Among them, the limited representation of Global South interests, the lack of space for civil society and farmers’ organisations in the decision-making process and the institutional rivalry between the Finance and the Development Tracks. While the G7 can more easily mobilise consensus and financial solutions to tackle global hunger, it has gradually lost ground to settings such as the G20 or the UN climate conference generally known as COP. The G7 must align its food-security solutions with those designed by other global partners (the G20 Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, or the EU’s Global Gateway) that can more effectively address food insecurity, while tackling all the barriers that make it too risky for local actors and the private sector to invest in sustainable agri-food systems transformation.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, and G7
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

604. A Three-year War and Four Lessons for Europe

Author:: Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The tragic third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022 witnesses the start of diplomatic talks between Russia and the United States on the possible end of the conflict. Three years of large-scale, high-intensity war of attrition in Europe, with over a million dead or injured soldiers, offers at least four politico-military lessons for European countries, the EU and NATO. Lessons to bear in mind through this negotiation for the future not only of Ukraine but of the security of the whole continent.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Transatlantic Relations, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

605. Giorgia Meloni’s Italy between Trump and Europe: Fateful Choices Ahead

Author:: Maria Luisa Fantappiè, Leo Goretti, and Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The priority should be “preventing divisions within the West and the transatlantic alliance”, while “rooting for” this or that side would not be helpful: it is thus that Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni commented on the spat in the Oval Office between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump,[1] and by extension, between Washington and Europe. In the aftermath of the clash, while most European leaders openly supported Zelensky, Meloni’s reticence was notable. The choice was tough. Siding with Zelensky would jeopardise Meloni’s aspiration to become the go-to EU leader for Washington. And yet, siding with Trump would lay bare a lack of commitment to Europe and especially the defence of Ukraine, for which Meloni had previously shown constant support. At the ensuing London Summit on Ukraine, Meloni couldn’t hide her discomfort.[2] The resolve of European leaders – spearheaded by the French president Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer – in advocating for a strategic Europe seemed to shelve Meloni’s carefully crafted plan to leverage her bilateral ties with the Trump administration to bolster her role in Europe – even at the cost of fragmenting its unity. Meanwhile, at home, her junior coalition partner Matteo Salvini openly sided with Trump, in an attempt to present himself as an alternative to Meloni and to win consensus among that sizable chunk of the Italian public opinion who wants to see an end to the war in Ukraine.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, Russia-Ukraine War, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:: Europe, Italy, and United States of America

606. Trump’s Exit from the Paris Agreement: An Opportunity for the EU to Back South Africa’s Climate Leadership

Author:: Bongiwe Ngcobo-Mphahlele and Darlington Tshuma
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In his address to the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos in January 2025,[1] South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa – who currently chairs the G20, the first African leader to do so – outlined a bold and assertive agenda centred on global cooperation, inclusive growth and sustainable development. His address included a renewed call for transparency in the allocation of climate resources and the reform of the global financial architecture that has long been criticised as too rigid to support long-term sustainable development in the Global South.[2]
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economics, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Europe, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

607. Can France Provide European Allies with Nuclear Deterrence?

Author:: Roberto Zadra
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In his speech to fellow citizens on 5 March, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the opening of a “strategic debate on the protection of our allies on the European continent by our (nuclear) deterrent”.[1] It is not the first time: already in the 1990s then-president François Mitterrand alluded to a vocation européenne of French nuclear deterrence.[2] Macron himself proposed, already in February 2020, the opening of a dialogue on the matter.[3] The initiative was not very successful at the time, essentially because European allies considered the security guarantees provided by the United States to Europe through NATO sufficient, together with the repeated reassurances of NATO communiqués that the British and French nuclear forces “have a deterrent role of their own and contribute significantly to the overall security of the Alliance”.[4] This time, however, the reactions by many European allied countries to the French initiative will probably be different. For a simple reason: excluding the deployment of its own forces to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire and denying security guarantees to Kyiv, the Trump administration fuels the fears of European allies that Washington’s commitment to collective defence is less solid than in the past. Indeed, the Ukraine crisis has shown the limitations of the traditional NATO distinction between Article 5 and non-Article 5 – that is, between those who are members of NATO and therefore protected by collective defence, and those who are not because collective defence is not valid for NATO partners – as it has laid bare how crisis management and cooperative security are having a direct impact on (the perceived lack of US commitment to) collective defence in Europe.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe and France

608. The New Partnership among Italy, Japan and the UK on the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP)

Author:: Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) launched by Italy, Japan and the UK in 2022 represents a novel partnership among the three countries for the development and production of a next-generation crewed fighter aircraft. A partnership based on equality of rights for and investments by the founding partners, as well as on the principles of Freedom of Action and Freedom of Modification at national level – that means full operational and technological sovereignty on the core platform, differently from the F-35 experience. As such, GCAP presents new challenges and opportunities in political, military and industrial terms, in addition to the programme’s tight schedule and high level of technological ambitions. The cooperation accelerated in 2024 with the establishment of a dedicated international governmental organisation to manage the programme, and the agreement on a joint venture among the three major companies involved on equal foot from the respective countries. This study provides an in-depth and comprehensive analysis of the specific British, Italian and Japanese ways to GCAP, of the programme’s politico-institutional governance and industrial architecture, as well as of training issue and the cross-sectorial implications for Italy. Moreover, a dedicated chapter focuses on the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) and the US Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programmes in a comparative perspective. The conclusions outline 15 policy recommendations for Italy concerning GCAP.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Defense Industry, and F-35
Political Geography:: Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, and Italy

609. NATO-Europe-US Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific: Challenging Times Ahead

Author:: Gabriele Abbondanza
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As the Indo-Pacific gradually becomes the world’s geopolitical and geoeconomic epicentre, states and regional organisations are progressively pivoting to it. Due to a combination of drivers – chiefly US pressure, economic opportunities, strategic interests and politico-normative priorities – European and Indo-Pacific actors have increased cooperation with Washington and NATO in the region. However, the second Trump administration looks considerably less aligned with the conventional pillars of US foreign policy. In light of the unfolding fracture between the US and its European allies over Ukraine, what lies ahead for NATO-Europe-US cooperation in the Indo-Pacific?
Topic:: NATO, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

610. Exploring options for advancing Kosovo-NATO relations

Author:: Ramadan Iazi and Jeta Loshaj
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: NATO’s role in Kosovo has been vital since the 1999 intervention and KFOR remains integral for guaranteeing security and stability not only in Republic of Kosovo but also the wider Western Balkans. Public sentiment for full NATO membership is extremely high in Kosovo—over 90% support—reflecting Kosovars’ enduring trust in the NATP alliance. However this overwhelming public support can be affected if Kosovo’s aspirations for closer ties with NATO are not addressed. While, Kosovo’s formal progress toward full membership is politically constrained by the fact that four NATO member states have yet to recognize its independence, there are other options that NATO can pursue to advance relations with Kosovo. In this context, this paper explores options how can Kosovo and NATO advance relations and cooperation. The 1995 study provides core principles for options that are examined in this paper. These principles remain highly relevant for Kosovo. While formal membership is stalled by non-recognizing NATO member states, the paper argues that an inclusive, step-by-step approach can be adapted for a flexible, deeper engagement with Kosovo. A central recommendation is the creation of a “Kosovo Enhanced Cooperation Initiative,” a tailored version of NATO’s partnership mechanisms (e.g., Partnership for Peace, Planning and Review Process, and the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre). KECI would aim to strengthen Kosovo’s defense institutions, enhance interoperability, support civil emergency preparedness, and develop broader crisis-management capabilities. Crucially, it would not force any change in the political stance on recognition among NATO member states. The EU-facilitated normalization dialogue between Republic of Kosovo and Serbia is one of the essential elements especially for Kosovo to build the confidence of both skeptical NATO member states and international partners when it comes to Euro-Atlantic integration process of the country. Regular coordination with NATO and the EU, particularly concerning sensitive actions in the north, would affirm that Kosovo’s leaders prioritize strategic partnerships and diplomacy over moves that risks and undermine support for Kosovo. Nevertheless, without any concrete carrots such as anything close to a guarantee that Kosovo gains an open perspective for NATO’s PfP, it is rather difficult for Kosovo to be encouraged to deliver on either an agreement with Serbia or any other agreement.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Partnerships, Normalization, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

611. How Does Disinformation Target and Affect Interethnic Relations in Kosovo?

Author:: Ramadan Ilazi, Jeta Loshaj, Tamara Pavlović, and Agnesa Bytyçi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Disinformation and misinformation are pervasive issues in Kosovo, where they exploit existing societal divisions and low trust in institutional narratives. Participants in focus groups and interviews largely defined misinformation as unintentional inaccuracies or partial truths spread due to misunderstanding or lack of verification, while disinformation was seen as deliberately misleading information designed to create division. Though malinformation was not discussed, the distinction between misinformation and disinformation highlights the deliberate nature of the latter in destabilizing interethnic relations. According to a recent NDI Kosovo survey 67% of Kosovo Serbs believe things are moving in the wrong direction, while 41% of Kosovo Albanians believe the opposite. Kosovo Serbs prioritize unemployment (66%) and interethnic tensions (49%) as their primary issues, while Albanians focus more on unemployment (77%) and corruption (56%). There is a significant disparity in perceptions of interethnic relations, while 65% of Kosovo Serbs expect relations to worsen, 53% of Kosovo Albanians are optimistic about improvement. Media consumption is heavily segmented by ethnicity with 79% of the Kosovo Serbs relying on Serbian TV stations daily, with 66% expressing trust in these outlets. Kosovo Albanian respondents primarily use Kosovo TV stations (86%) and social media (50%) as information sources. Trust in information sources remains low across ethnic groups, with reliance on personal networks (friends and family) common for fact-checking.2 Kosovo Serbian community widely believe in disinformation narratives, such as claims of ethnic cleansing plans and mistreatment by Kosovo Police during incidents like the Banjska terrorist attack. Among Kosovo Albanians, skepticism about these narratives is higher, reflecting ethnic polarization. A significant factor enabling both misinformation and disinformation is the skepticism toward institutional narratives—whether from the government, international organizations, or national media. These institutions are widely viewed as biased or agenda-driven, misaligned with the priorities of local communities. Conversely, reliance on familiar sources, such as ethnically divided local news outlets and word-of-mouth communication, exacerbates separation and distrust. These sources, while perceived as relatable and acting in the community’s best interest, are often biased, incomplete, or inaccurate, further reinforcing community echo chambers. Relations between Kosovar Albanians and Kosovar Serbs are frequently manipulated through disinformation to fuel distrust. Actions by the Kosovo Government impacting the Serbian community—such as institutional closures—are framed in Serbian media as ethnic discrimination or even “ethnic cleansing.” Similarly, uncontextualized or sensationalized reports about past events, like the fabricated claim of Albanian children being drowned by Serbs, continue to inflame ethnic hostility. These narratives exploit the unresolved history, reinforcing grievances that hinder reconciliation efforts. Socio-economic hardships, such as high poverty rates and employment gaps, increase susceptibility to disinformation. According to the 2024 Democracy Plus Vulnerability Index, which saw Kosovo’s vulnerability score rise from 41 to 57, economic instability makes individuals more receptive to emotionally charged misinformation.3 Limited access to quality education weakens critical thinking and media literacy, leaving many unable to identify biased information. The National Democratic Institute in their report on Information Integrity in Kosovo Assessment of the Political Economy of Disinformation (July 2022) found that the education system insufficiently prepares citizens for assessing online disinformation, further enhancing vulnerability. The issue of disinformation is not merely a challenge of modern information ecosystems; it is a deliberate strategy employed by internal and external actors to destabilize communities and undermine democratic governance. As digital platforms expand access to information, they also facilitate the rapid spread of false narratives, making it increasingly difficult for communities to discern fact from fiction. This report addresses these challenges with a focus on their implications for interethnic relations between Kosovo Albanians and Serbs. This report is grounded in qualitative research, incorporating insights from two primary sources: Two focus group discussions were conducted with a total of fifteen participants, comprising a mix of Kosovo Albanians and Kosovo Serbs. These discussions provided a grassroots perspective on how disinformation affects interethnic dynamics, exploring lived experiences, perceptions, and community-level challenges. Additionally, nine in-depth interviews were conducted with a diverse range of stakeholders, including local and international experts, representatives from civil society, and government officials. These interviews offered expert insights into the structural, cultural, and political dimensions of disinformation in Kosovo. The combination of these approaches ensures a nuanced understanding of the issue, capturing both macro-level trends and micro-level experiences. The findings are contextualized within existing literature and complemented by statistical data from surveys and prior studies. The report is structured as follows: A detailed analysis of the main themes and insights that emerged from the focus groups and interviews, highlighting the impact of disinformation on interethnic relations, institutional trust, and reconciliation efforts. The next section explores the structural, cultural, and political factors that make Kosovo particularly susceptible to disinformation. A breakdown of the primary methods and stories used in disinformation campaigns, including the roles of media, political actors, and diaspora communities, is also included. An assessment of how disinformation influences community dynamics, perpetuates stereotypes, and undermines peacebuilding initiatives. Kosovo’s ongoing efforts at normalization of relations with Serbia make the issue of disinformation particularly salient. Disinformation not only perpetuates division but also undermines trust in institutions and mediation efforts to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia. By addressing the mechanisms and impacts of disinformation, this report seeks to contribute to a deeper understanding of how to better counter disinformation targeting interethnic relations, in order to foster a cohesive and democratic society. The findings and recommendations presented here are intended to serve as a resource for policymakers, civil society organizations, media practitioners, and international actors working to promote peace and reconciliation in Kosovo. At its core, this report emphasizes the importance of fostering resilience against disinformation where interethnic relations are characterized by trust, cooperation, and mutual respect. The research paper “Understanding How Disinformation Targets and Affects Interethnic Relations in Kosovo” is implemented with the support of the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID), in Kosovo. The content of this research paper belongs to the Kosovar Center for Security Studies and does not necessarily reflect the position and stances of NDI and USAID.
Topic:: Ethnicity, Institutions, Disinformation, Misinformation, Trust, and Civil Peace
Political Geography:: Europe and Kosovo

612. Botswana land policies, colonial legacy, socio-economic injustice and the politics of populism

Author:: Sheila Khama
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: This briefing highlights the key challenges and policy recommendations related to Botswana’s land tenure system, with a particular focus on the government’s recent acquisition of land from the Tati Company and its implications for land governance and socioeconomic justice. Historically, Botswana's land tenure system evolved through pre- and post-colonial eras, divided into three categories: communal (tribal), state (formerly Crown), and freehold land. Despite minimal white settler presence compared to other African nations, land ownership by former colonial settlers remains a sensitive issue, raising questions about socioeconomic equity. A 2023 government purchase of 45,000 hectares of freehold land from the Tati Company reignited debate on land ownership and absentee landlords, as well as urban land shortages. The transaction, while symbolic, was criticised for failing to address deeper land access issues. The purchase underscored ongoing tensions around land rights and the state’s need to ensure equitable land distribution and effective use.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Populism, Socioeconomics, and Land Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

613. Leveraging 4IR for Governance and Urban Development in Johannesburg

Author:: Mmabatho Mongae
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Johannesburg’s ability to harness the transformative potential of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is hindered by persistent governance and administrative weaknesses. While the city scores well for service delivery and economic development, its poor rankings in planning, leadership, and administration on the Governance Performance Index suggest challenges in execution and institutional efficiency. While Johannesburg has demonstrated foresight in adopting 4IR policies – such as the Smart City Strategy – these efforts risk being undermined if governance bottlenecks remain unaddressed. This briefing highlights the critical role of strong leadership and efficient administration in ensuring that 4IR-driven initiatives do not exacerbate inequality, but instead respond to Johannesburg’s urban challenges. To maximize the benefits of 4IR, Johannesburg must strengthen governance structures, improve policy coordination, and foster equitable implementation, ensuring that technological advancements enhance service delivery, economic growth, and urban resilience for all residents.
Topic:: Governance, Economic Growth, Fourth Industrial Revolution, and Urban Development
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Johannesburg

614. A silver lining? The US aid freeze should spur Nigeria to greater self-reliance

Author:: Julia Bello-Schunemann
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Foreign aid has never been the solution to Nigeria’s multiple development challenges. However, the halt to US development assistance1 and the de facto shutdown of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will cause additional hardship for Nigeria’s most vulnerable. Modelling based on the International Futures model (IFs)2 , a forecasting platform housed at the University of Denver, suggests that the decision could push approximately 700 000 additional Nigerians into extreme poverty by 2030. The health sector is disproportionately affected by the freeze as it depends excessively on US aid, primarily for the fight against HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases. Nigeria is one of 10 countries globally that are most reliant on US funding3 for HIV medicines. The US policy shift is a wake-up call for the Tinubu administration to rise to the task of mobilising domestic funds to provide essential services to the population.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, USAID, and Health Sector
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, Nigeria, and United States of America

615. Enhancing Local Governance: How the private sector can support data capacity in South Africa’s municipalities

Author:: Stuart Morrison and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: According to the World Bank’s Statistical Capacity Index1 , South Africa ranks among the highest on the African continent. This strong foundation positions the country at the forefront of Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies, particularly in leveraging government and open-access data to address national and subnational challenges. Cities like Cape Town and eThekwini have established Open Data Portals (ODPs) – online open-access data repositories that enhance transparency, improve service delivery tracking, and help identify pressing socioeconomic and infrastructure challenges. These portals not only benefit municipal decision-making but also provide businesses with valuable datasets to identify investment opportunities, market trends, and areas for social innovation.2 Despite these benefits, South Africa faces challenges in expanding and sustaining ODPs, particularly at the local government level. This presents a unique opportunity for the private sector to support local governments in the development and maintenance of ODPs. Using Cape Town and eThekwini as case studies, this report examines why private sector involvement in OPDs is crucial and how such partnerships can strengthen local governance, drive economic innovation, and foster inclusive urban development.
Topic:: Governance, Private Sector, Data, and Fourth Industrial Revolution
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

616. Public Debt and the Income Share of the Top 1% in the US, 1960-2019

Author:: Aggela Papadopoulou
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: This study theorizes the relationship between sovereign debt and income inequality and shows that increases in public indebtedness are robustly associated with increases in the income share of the top one percent in the US since the 1960s. First, the paper outlines the mechanisms through which public debt is linked to the top one percent income share, via interest payments and capital gains from bond trading. Subsequently, it scrutinizes the evolution of public debt and the income share of the top one percent in the US, in parallel with the historical development of political and economic institutions. Building on the historical analysis, it demonstrates econometrically that interest payments and total returns on domestic and foreign public debt are positively associated with the income share of the top one percent in the US for the period 1960 to 2019.
Topic:: Income Inequality, Public Debt, and Top One Percent
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

617. Dollar Colonisation: The Destructive Policy Implications of Modern Monetary Theory

Author:: Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: Modern monetary theory argues that all governments that issue their own currency have the same policy space. The present paper argues that this position is wrong. For it to be valid, abstraction must be made from the gravitational force of the US dollar that stems from its backing mass of securities and is transmitted through international investment flows. On recognition of this gravitational force, it becomes clear that the huge size disparity separating the US financial market from those of other markets, and most notably those of the EMEs, translates into an equally huge disparity regarding policy space. The policy implications for EME governments are that they should, where possible, join their financial markets into regional blocs of sufficient sizes as can give their regional currencies enough backing mass to allow them to resist the gravitational pull of the dollar. Only by pooling their currency sovereignty can EME governments retain some scope for pursuing policies independently of those pursued by the US government. On the contrary, any such scope is destroyed if EME governments in countries with small financial markets follow the MMT's advice to retain their local currencies because that advice condemns these currencies to entrapment in the dollar's gravitational field and even possibly to outright dollar colonisation.
Topic:: Currency, Dollar, Colonization, and Modern Monetary Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

618. Black Intergenerational Mobility, Libertarian Capitalism, and Authoritarian Government, 1877–1941: A Case Study

Author:: Patrick L. Mason
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: There are persistent multigenerational Black-white gaps in occupational attainment. These racial differences in intergenerational mobility are not caused by differences in family values and behavior (Mason, 2007). For three decades, I have gathered evidence on my family’s intergenerational transition from enslavement to present social and economic circumstances. Charles and Susan Rollins were 32 and 29 years-old, respectively, as enslavement ended in 1865. During Reconstruction, they accumulated wealth, established a successful dairy and other farming, helped found a church and religious organizations, helped found multiple civic organizations, served on boards affiliated with the local university and high school, were elected to County and State public office, had savings and bank accounts for the entire family, and were leaders among an extensive social network. Jim Crow in the South and anti-black racism in the north stymied upward mobility for the Rollins family for the three generations after Charles and Susan, despite the fact that their descendants obtained greater education than their ancestors, displayed a willingness to relocate 100s of miles away from their home, possessed a culture of achievement (hard work, future orientation, married couple families, etc.), were blessed with exceptional social capital, and, perhaps, the relative advantage of being mulattoes.
Topic:: History, Authoritarianism, Capital, Libertarianism, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

619. Fracking or No Fracking? How a Green Transition Can Work for Workers

Author:: Robert Pollin and Jeannette Wicks-Lim
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Throughout the 2024 U.S. Presidential campaign, the only climate-related issue to achieve prominence was the question of whether to ban fracking operations in the United States. Donald Trump is a long-time climate denier, and therefore had no qualms in supporting fracking and all other techniques for extracting fossil fuels from the ground. By contrast, Kamala Harris had supported a nationwide ban on fracking during her 2019 presidential campaign. This was due to the severe negative environmental and public health impacts of this natural gas extraction technique and because burning natural gas to produce energy generates CO2 emissions that cause climate change. But Harris opposed a fracking ban in 2024 on the assumption that the ban would impose major costs to the economy of Pennsylvania, which has the second-largest fracking operations among U.S. states, after Texas only. Such negative economic outcomes in Pennsylvania would indeed result if fracking were banned in the U.S. and no large-scale alternative economic activities were introduced into Pennsylvania’s economy. But banning fracking must be understood as one component of a much larger program to advance a viable climate stabilization program, in Pennsylvania, and everywhere else. We find that building a clean energy-dominant infrastructure in Pennsylvania—focused on investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources—will generate approximately 160,000 jobs in the state. Meanwhile, phasing down fracking and all other fossil fuel activities by 50 percent between 2026 – 35 will entail job losses in the range of 1,700 per year within the state. We argue that these 1,700 displaced fossil fuel workers should receive just transition policies that include pension, employment and income guarantees, in addition to, as needed, retraining and relocation support. We estimate that such a just transition program for these workers will cost in the range of $240 million per year. This amounts to about 0.02 percent of Pennsylvania’s current GDP. Thus, we show how, between 2026 – 2035, Pennsylvania could phase out 50 percent of all its fossil fuel production activities—including fracking operations—while also providing generous support for workers to transition out of their fossil fuel industry jobs and into activities that both raise public health and environmental standards in the state and contribute toward a viable global climate stabilization project.
Topic:: Climate Change, Elections, Green Transition, and Fracking
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

620. Employment in Child Care and Early Education in the U.S. 2000-2021

Author:: Aritra Basu and Nancy Folbre
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Accurate assessment of trends in the availability and affordability of childcare services in the U.S. hinges on accurate assessment of a paid labor force that is difficult to precisely measure, because it spans a wide range of informal and formal institutional arrangements. This paper calls attention to these measurement problems and traces significant changes in the composition of child care and early education employment from 2000 to 2021 based on data from the American Community Survey (ACS). It shows that employment in the Child Day Care Services industry has become an increasingly poor measure of the number of those employed in Child Care and Preschool/Kindergarten occupations, due to increased provision in both Private Household Services and Elementary and Secondary Education industries. Comparisons of worker characteristics and median annual earnings across occupations and industries highlight the effects of institutional context, including differences in the composition of demand for paid care services. Consideration of these issues points to the need for specific improvements in labor force survey design.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Survey, and Child Care
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

621. IMF, Structural Adjustment, and Poverty: A Cross-National Difference-in-Differences Analysis, 1980-2018

Author:: Shih-Yen Pan, Lawrence P. King, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been one of the world’s most powerful international organizations in setting the parameters for economic reforms in the developing world. In this study, using data from 1980-2018 from 57 countries, we test competing hypotheses surrounding the impact of the IMF’s lending programs on poverty incidence in participant countries. Departing from the prevailing practice of relying on instrumental variables, we employ a novel difference-in-differences approach that ensures clean comparisons between “treatment” and “control” units based on their program participation histories. Besides providing a quantitative estimate of the average program effect, we evaluate whether the IMF’s alleged anti-poverty focus in recent decades has made any difference. We find that IMF program participation leads to large increases (3.6-5.7 percentage points) in the proportion of a country’s population living under the $3.65/day and $6.85/day international poverty lines (2017 PPP) and the countryspecific Societal Poverty Line. We also find that the poverty reduction measures incorporated by the IMF into its programs have not been effective in mitigating the poverty-increasing program effects. Overall, our findings show that IMF programs have been detrimental to the welfare of vulnerable populations in participant countries.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Organization, and IMF
Political Geography:: Global Focus

622. Oil and the Cameroonian Economy: A Story of Unfulfilled Potential

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana, Hans Tino Mpenya Ayamena, and Juste Lokossou
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: While Cameroon is one of the most endowed African countries in a wide range of overground and underground natural resources, it has struggled to leverage these resources to secure a decent living standard for the majority of its population. Instead of boasting impressive development outcomes, Cameroon is among African resource rich countries that are known for suffering high financial hemorrhage through capital flight. In a sense, capital flight from Africa has become a chronic manifestation of the ‘resource curse’ that tends to plague countries that are endowed with vast amounts of resources in a context of poor institutions and weak regulatory frameworks. This study provides a detailed analysis of the historical emergence of an externally dominated oil sector and the institutional and regulatory arrangements governing the sector to shed light on the causes of the country’s failure to fulfill its potential considering its impressive resource endowment. The evidence may shed light on strategies to usher a new path towards a Cameroonian economy beyond oil.
Topic:: Oil, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

623. Do alternative households improve paid employment outcomes? A comparative analysis of same-sex partnerships in Brazil

Author:: Cicero Braga and James Heintz
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper explores the labor market implications of household formation among same-sex married couples in Brazil, comparing them with different-sex married couples and unpartnered individuals. Using data from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNADC) from 2016 to 2019, the study provides a descriptive overview of same-sex households and analyzes patterns of partnership formation, racial and educational endogamy/homogamy, and paid employment outcomes. Despite data limitations, findings suggest that same-sex couples may benefit from household formation by adopting alternatives to traditional patriarchal dynamics. Women in same-sex partnerships exhibit greater labor market participation and earnings, while men may experience reduced pressure to conform to traditional breadwinner roles. All married/partnered individuals earn a wage premium, relative to unpartnered individuals, but this premium varies by type of couple, sex, and the partner’s education and employment status. The paper highlights the importance of recognizing diverse household structures to fully understand economic well-being and inequities. Further research on the broader spectrum of "families of choice" is necessary to better capture the economic experiences of the LGBTI community in Brazil.
Topic:: Employment, LGBT+, Economic Inequality, Labor Market, Household, and Gender Roles
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

624. Investing in a Green Future: Finance, Industrial Policy and the Green transition

Author:: Ramaa Vasudevan
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: We present a framework to assess green climate finance and the pathways to building a climate aligned financial system. This would involve the strategic reorientation of central bank interventions, national development banks and multilateral and regional banks and coherent purposive collaborations between these institutions and interventions to decisively reshape the contemporary global financial system that is out of tune with the long-term imperatives of climate action. Aligning finance to climate goals at the necessary scale, pace and direction requires the calibration of financial flows across three axes: ‘public-private’; ‘real-financial’ and ‘national-international’. Along the first axis the naturedepleting, climate imperiling logic of short-term private profitability needs to be contained in order to pursue the public priorities of climate action. Along the second axis, policy efforts have to be geared to ensuring that financial flows are financing investments in climate mitigation and adaptation and not simply providing more fodder for the global portfolio glut and financial accumulation. Finally, along the third axis warding global funding and support on appropriate terms has to be provided to the most vulnerable countries while buttressing national ownership of the green mission.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

625. The Distribution of Climate Finance among Annex-II Countries: A CBDR-RC Approach for Partial Funding of the Developing Countries

Author:: Shouvik Chakraborty
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Developing nations face the significant challenge of reconciling their efforts in climate change mitigation with the urgent need for financial resources to adapt to climate-related disasters, achieve sustainable development, and stabilize their economies. The financial requirements for addressing climate impacts span various sectors, including energy transition, energy efficiency, transportation, agriculture, forestry, other land use (AFOLU), and adaptation strategies. Estimates provided by reputable international organizations, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suggest that the annual global climate finance needs may range from $4.2 trillion to $5.7 trillion. Within this framework, the share allocated to developing countries is estimated to constitute approximately $1.9 trillion to $2.0 trillion annually, mainly to support mitigation efforts. It is widely acknowledged that developing countries are unlikely to meet these financial demands independently. Consequently, it is projected that around $1 trillion must be sourced from advanced economies, particularly the AnnexII countries. This paper introduces a methodology grounded in the principles of common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability (CBDR-RC). It facilitates a structured distribution of financing responsibilities among Annex II nations. The methodology incorporates the notion of historical responsibility, quantified as carbon debt, while also measuring capability through a balanced consideration of the wealth and gross domestic product (GDP) of the AnnexII countries. The analysis conducted reveals that the United States of America (USA) is required to contribute nearly half of the total financial obligations among the AnnexII countries, with the remaining funds to be apportioned among other nations within this group.
Topic:: Development, Finance, Climate Finance, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

626. Navigating Debt Sustainability: An In-Depth Analysis of the IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework and Its Critique

Author:: Hasan Cömert, Güney Düzçay, and T. Sabri Öncü
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper evaluates the IMF's debt sustainability analyses (DSAs), delving into their methodologies and implications and highlighting their problems. Since 2002, the DSAs have been the cornerstone of the IMF programs, providing the primary analytical tool to justify and determine the paths and targets specified. Although the DSAs evolved significantly over time, they have severe foundational problems. They rely heavily on strong assumptions and staff judgments, and thereby, they are primarily non-transparent. Secondly, there are significant issues regarding the conduct of DSAs. They have grown excessively complex, hindering consensus on components without necessarily improving assessment quality. Thirdly, the IMF makes very high-stakes decisions with low precision, relying on persistent over-optimism in growth forecasting and paving the way for tighter fiscal policies. Fourthly, the debt dynamics equation of DSAs is inconsistent with stock flow dynamics because it focuses heavily on the primary balance as the main driver. Fifthly, the IMF's framework does not pay enough attention to the underlying reasons for accumulating external debt in developing nations. It often treats external borrowing as a substitute for domestic debt without accounting for the asymmetric international financial architecture.
Topic:: Debt, Fiscal Policy, Sustainability, and IMF
Political Geography:: Global Focus

627. Simul in the Middle East: Regional Strategic Ramifications of Israel and Hezbollah’s War

Author:: Boushra Jaber
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:: This report aims to explore the background of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict and the context surrounding their most recent war. It argues that the causes and consequences of this war have both domestic and broader regional and international dimensions. The report underlines the significant ramifications of this war by analysing the origins, progression, and outcomes of the conflict at both domestic and regional levels, as well as its international resonance. Additionally, it presents policy recommendations to address these challenges, particularly in Lebanon, focusing on containing Hezbollah and strengthening state governance. Eventually, the report highlights two main findings: first, the conflict underscores the profound geopolitical interconnections within the Middle East, illustrating how instability in one nation can create a ripple effect throughout the region, ultimately impacting its overall stability. Second, it stresses the urgent need for carefully considered and well-informed policies to navigate the complexities and interdependencies inherent in the region.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon

628. National Dialogues x Transitional Justice

Author:: Sylvia Servaes and David Bloomfield
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: In the aftermath of conflict, National Dialogue and Transitional Justice can both contribute to reconciliation and prevent the recurrence of violence. But what is the nexus between the two? What are key shared characteristics, goals, and complementarities? In this paper, Sylvia Servaes and David Bloomfield explore the interlinkages between National Dialogues and Transitional Justice. They also discuss open questions on how both processes can be further integrated in practice to enhance their relevance and effectiveness. Over the last two decades, National Dialogues have been increasingly recognised as a comprehensive tool for preventing violent conflicts and reaching inclusive political settlements. However, questions remain on how to best integrate certain topics in the design of National Dialogues and how to meaningfully include specific societal groups. The series “National Dialogues at crossroads” aims at addressing this gap. It compiles lessons learned and recommendations on four cross-cutting issues: climate change, digitalisation, protest movements, and Transitional Justice.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, Post-Conflict, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:: Global Focus

629. From Partners to Rivals: Normative Power Europe Meets Normative Power China?

Author:: Gözde Yilmaz
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The European Union (EU) has been promoting its norms, values, and rules for decades. However, in the current international environment, the EU’s normative power is not being received well outside the EU, particularly in reference to the growing power of illiberal states. Within that context, this study explores EU-China relations across time and unpacks the position of normative power Europe towards China and the Chinese response. The study foregrounds the fruitless attempts of the EU to project its transformative power onto China and the growing resistance by China against this, which it expresses by presenting itself to the West as an alternative power with an alternative understanding of international politics.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Rivalry, Strategic Partnerships, and Normative Power
Political Geography:: China and Europe

630. Transformation of Turkish-Russian Relations: Rivalry and Cooperation in Eurasia and the Levant

Author:: Mustafa Aydin
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Relations between Russia and Türkiye have developed considerably since the end of the Cold War. What began as energy trade in the late 1980s evolved into cooperation in business, energy, construction, tourism, politics and even security. Behind the ever-expanding cooperation lies a mistrust fueled by historical enmity and regional rivalry that occasionally leads to confrontation. As the two countries seek to shape their competitive cooperation beyond the current geopolitical challenges and constraints of regional security and alliances, the question of whether they could find ways to advance their partnership is of paramount importance and has regional and global implications. This paper seeks to understand how they have managed their conflict-ridden past to develop a modus operandi in the post-Cold War world by proposing a new conceptual model, namely “competitive cooperation” or “coopetition”, to understand the relationship that developed over the last 30 years in different geographical regions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Rivalry, and Competitive Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, Mediterranean, and Black Sea

631. Schengen Visa Deadlock: The Unresolved Case of Turkish Citizens

Author:: Burak Erdenir
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The visa policy of the European Union (EU) member states against Turkish citizens has been a controversial topic for decades. Millions of Turkish citizens suffer from serious restrictions before their travel to the Schengen area for the purpose of their non-gainful activities. In time, two main options appeared before the visa-free travel of Turkish citizens, namely the opportunity brought by the interpretations of the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) based on the “stand-still clause” and secondly the Visa Liberalisation Dialogue. The objective of the article is to discuss whether the visa regime against Turkish citizens is justified or politically motivated. It connects the technical/legal analysis to a political analysis through the securitization theory. Security framing practices of the European actors at various policy levels are analyzed to explain the continuation of the restrictive visa regime against Turkish citizens despite two strong options that could have ensured visa-free travel. This article concludes that as a result of developments following the failed coup attempt in 2016, visa-free travel of Turkish citizens which was framed through the perceived threat of Turkish migration has transformed into a real threat.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, European Union, Visa, Securitization, and Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU)
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

632. Introducing the Response to Sponsorship Dataset: Determinants of Responses by Target States to State Sponsors of Rebel Groups

Author:: Elif Hatun Kiliçbeylşa
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Empirical studies on the sponsorship of rebel groups have focused on understanding why and how supporter states help rebels, whether this engagement benefits the rebels, and the effects of sponsorship on the conflict outcomes. By comparison, the responses of target states to sponsorship behavior have been neglected despite the possibility of interstate crises, disputes, and conflict due to the sponsorship. This study introduces a new dataset, the Response Sponsorship Dataset (RSD), which measures target states’ responses toward state sponsors of rebel groups intending to terminate the sponsorship. The data includes information on the responses of 58 target states to 102 supporter states concerning the support of 150 rebel groups between 1991 and 2010, comprising 3719 observations. The RSD identifies diplomatic, economic, militarized, domestic, covert responses and inaction as target state responses as well as classifying them as coercive or non-coercive based on target states’ foreign policy engagements with sponsors. The RSD provides new opportunities for researchers and policymakers to analyze target responses with regards to conflict management and foreign policy as well as promising future research on support termination.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Alliance, Rivalry, Proxy Groups, and State Sponsorship
Political Geography:: Global Focus

633. Foreign Language Acquisition and Learning of Late Ottoman Ambassadors and Consuls (1885-1910)

Author:: Mehmet Halil Mustafa Bektaş
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The Ottoman Foreign Ministry underwent profound adjustments and transformations during the institutionalization process in the late Ottoman Empire. These developments significantly influenced the training of diplomats within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, particularly from the latter half of the nineteenth century onwards, enhancing the professional competence and training of Ottoman diplomats. In this sense, this article aims to thoroughly examine the impact of institutionalization process within the Ottoman Foreign Ministry on diplomats’ acquisition and learning of foreign languages. The primary source for this study will be the registry files (sicill-i ahval) from the Ottoman Archives. Employing a prosopographic approach, the study will analyze the foreign language proficiency of late Ottoman ambassadors and consuls, along with their methods of language acquisition. By doing so, this article seeks to advance our understanding of the process of professionalization and specialization within Ottoman diplomacy.
Topic:: Ottoman Empire, Diplomatic History, Ambassador, Consul, and Foreign Language Education
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Ottoman Empire

634. Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivilized War

Author:: Hüsna Taş Yetim
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Russia’s ongoing military intervention in Ukraine since February 24, 2022, has attracted considerable attention from International Relations specialists, analysts, intellectuals, and academics. Russia's decision to go to war has been interpreted in a variety of ways. Some scholars have linked it to the country's imperial and Soviet history (Mankoff 2022; Rojeck 2022; Trenin 2022; Timothy 2022; Van Harpen et al. 2023), while others have seen it as a deliberate distraction from internal problems (Torbakov 2022). Paul D’Anieri’s second edition of “Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivilized War”, which consists of ten chapters, challenges prevailing views by providing a comprehensive analysis of the historical context of the conflict. D’Anieri contends that the origins of the Ukrainian war of 2022 go beyond the immediate crises of late 2021 or the events of 2014. Instead, he identifies three post-Cold War dynamics - the security dilemma, democratization, and domestic politics - as the primary drivers of the war. According to D’Anieri, these factors strained ties between Russia, Ukraine, and the West, leading to the conflict (pp. 2-3). Chapters three, four, and five meticulously dissect each dynamic, offering a detailed analysis of the intricate relationships between the United States (US), Russia, Ukraine, and Europe from 1989 to the present conflict.
Topic:: International Relations, History, Book Review, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

635. KGB Operations against the USA and Canada in Soviet Ukraine, 1953-1991

Author:: Nebahat Akkoç
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Professor Zhuk’s “KGB Operations against the USA and Canada in Soviet Ukraine, 1953- 1991” focuses on the post-Stalin Cold War period, when Soviet Ukraine was gradually opened to American and Canadian visitors and combines counter-intelligence documents in the 1st (and 16th) fund of Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) archive with the Committee for State Security’s (KGB) official correspondence and reports to the political leadership of Soviet Ukraine.
Topic:: Cold War, History, Book Review, and KGB
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

636. Mediatised Terrorism: East-West Narratives of Risk

Author:: Seda Çolakoğlu
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: There is a growing body of literature in the social sciences that suggests that we live in a world surrounded by narratives that construct and interpret particular understandings of reality, that serve to make sense of the world. Following the understanding that everyone and everything has a narrative in the world we live in; it would not be wrong to say that these narratives appear in every shape and dimension. For instance, since the media also has a story to tell, we hear, watch, see and witness a wide variety of stories from the media. The media is therefore the producer and distributor of narratives. However, this emphasis has a deeper implication, namely that news stories are not simply a spiral of words describing events. This is because the media convey news to the receiving public by representing, constructing, and reconstructing it (through narratives). We frequently witness about various terrorist acts across the world via media. Saira Ali accurately examines this particular topic. Her book is for those who are concerned about how terrorism news is presented to audiences through the media and how it is made sense of in a country-specific and context-specific way. This approach also allows for a contextualisation of the construction of terrorism news narratives, within different cultural, social, and political contexts (p.5,10). The author embarks on an intellectual journey of curiosity regarding the mediatisation of terrorism in two distinct worlds. These worlds are Australia, where the risk of terrorism is quite low but it has taken drastic legal measures out of fear of global terrorism after 9/11, and Pakistan, with a more grey policy altough caught in the spiral of a complex terrorist atmospher. In this way, Ali’s intellectual effort is to interrogate the narrative that global terrorism is mostly damaging to Western civilisation by including the East in her analysis. Ali’s analysis is basically founded on an argument that “the reality of terrorism is constructed through discourse” (p. 6).
Topic:: Terrorism, Media, Book Review, and Narrative
Political Geography:: Global Focus

637. Diaspora Organisations in International Affairs

Author:: Mesut Özcan
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Diasporas and their organisations, which traditionally aimed to serve their interest in the homeland and abroad, have long been studied under several social science disciplines, such as anthropology, sociology, political science, and geography. At the beginning of the 2000s, for instance, human and political geographers started to focus on diaspora realizing that it is a geographical concept, which addresses various geographical themes such as dispersion, boundaries, territory (as homeland), and identity. The “geographical turn” contributed to the concept theoretically, and also to transnationalism and migration studies empirically by which cases were reconsidered through the lens of geographical concepts, such as space, place, and time. Similar to geographers’ arguments, diaspora organisations (DO) -as a distinct form of collectivity- and their activities are very relevant to what we study in International Relations (IR), especially when it comes to exploring DOs’ role that transcends state borders in development, human rights, conflict, and peace. In that regard, attempts to introduce novel contributions from various disciplines have the potential to significantly enhance our comprehension of the theory of diaspora and its associated organizations.
Topic:: International Affairs, Diaspora, Book Review, and Organizations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

638. Leaders in the Middle East and North Africa: How Ideology Shapes Foreign Policy

Author:: Mesut Özcan
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: It is almost always the case that any Introduction to International Relations course teaches the contributions of Kenneth Waltz to the field, firstly through his grandiose formulation of a theory: it should be simple, parsimonious, abstract, and accordingly, one needs to move away from reality as much as possible to increase the theory’s explanatory and predictive capacity.1 Moving the individual and state level of analyses aside, Waltz simplifies his theory of international politics at the system/structural level and, with his neorealist theory becoming the dominant approach for a large part of the twentieth century, it put the state in a sort of black box, purposefully ignored individual actors, and targeted the maximum degree of abstraction as possible. In Leaders in the Middle East and North Africa: How Ideology Shapes Foreign Policy, which consists of seven chapters (one introduction chapter, four empirical chapters, one theoretical conclusions chapter and one policy implications chapter), Özdamar and Canbolat aim to shed light on foreign policy belief patterns of leaders in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), highlighting divergences across them and comparing them to the average world leadership. In the process, and in total opposition to Waltz’s claim, the authors argue that advancing “the actor-specific empirical studies zeroing in on agent behaviors and decisions in the future” is “the only way for IR to establish itself as a scientific discipline” (p. 148). In other words, as opposed to the structural approaches, the authors propound that less abstraction and a more actor-specific, nuanced, and tailored approach would provide significant opportunities for the IR discipline to be scientific.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Leadership, Book Review, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

639. Understanding the Impact of Remittances on Mexico’s Economy and Safeguarding Their Future Impact

Author:: Ryan C. Berg, Rubi Bledsoe, and Michael Ferguson
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Beyond providing supplemental income for Mexican households, remittances—funds sent by migrants to friends and families in their home country—provide a stable flow of developmental finance to the poorest subregions of the country, which have not historically benefited from international capital flows, such as development aid or foreign direct investment. Mexico, the world’s second-largest recipient of remittances, has seen a steady increase in the total volume of remittances received, primarily due to the strength of the U.S. labor market and concurrent wage growth among Mexican workers in the United States. Mechanisms to keep remittances secure are not impermeable to criminal organizations, which have been known to use small-increment deposits to launder gains from illicit economic activity, including drug trafficking. However, through increased U.S.-Mexico cooperation, both countries can strike the delicate balance between facilitating flows of remittances to promote development and financial inclusion and securing those funds from exploitation by illicit actors.
Topic:: Development, Economy, Trade, Economic Security, and Remittances
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

640. The Tech Revolution and Irregular Warfare: Leveraging Commercial Innovation for Great Power Competition

Author:: Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The U.S. government has not adequately leveraged the commercial sector to conduct irregular warfare against China, Russia, Iran, and other competitors because of significant risk aversion, slow and burdensome contracting and acquisitions processes, and a failure to adequately understand technological advances. There is an urgent need to rethink how the United States works with the commercial sector in such areas as battlefield awareness, placement and access, next-generation intelligence, unmanned and autonomous systems, influence operations, and precision effects.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, Competition, and Irregular Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iran, and United States of America

641. Fueling the Future: Recommendations for Strengthening U.S. Uranium Security

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Uranium is a crucial mineral for energy and national security—it fuels the nuclear energy that underpins today’s economy and is key to propelling future growth to meet the surge in energy demand from artificial intelligence. However, supply chain vulnerabilities and dependencies on foreign adversaries challenge U.S. leadership in the sector and create national and energy security risks. Russia and China are rapidly expanding their offtake of mined uranium from international partners, uranium enrichment capabilities, and nuclear infrastructure. To strengthen uranium and nuclear fuel supply chains, the United States must work with allies, implement conducive trade and tariff policies, and invest in both domestic enrichment capacity and uranium ore production abroad.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Economic Security, Uranium, Nuclear Energy, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Russia, Central Asia, North America, and United States of America

642. Mining for Defense: Unlocking the Potential for U.S.-Canada Collaboration on Critical Minerals

Author:: Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Henry Ziemer, and Alejandra Toro
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: China’s near monopolistic control of many critical minerals, which are essential for both for consumer products and defense production, represents an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States at a time of heightened geopolitical tension. Canada, which already supplies the United States with large quantities of certain essential metals, is well positioned as an alternative source for many of the critical minerals controlled by China, thus contributing to North American national and economic security. Bolstering cooperation on critical minerals for the defense industry furthermore offers a way for both countries to find common ground amid frustrations surrounding trade and security.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Mining, Collaboration, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

643. Russia’s Shadow War Against the West

Author:: Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Russia is conducting an escalating and violent campaign of sabotage and subversion against European and U.S. targets in Europe led by Russian military intelligence (the GRU), according to a new CSIS database of Russian activity. The number of Russian attacks nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024. Russia’s primary targets have included transportation, government, critical infrastructure, and industry, and its main weapons and tactics have included explosives, blunt or edged instruments (such as anchors), and electronic attack. Despite the increase in Russian attacks, Western countries have not developed an effective strategy to counter these attacks.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Intelligence, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Transnational Threats
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

644. Foreign Malign Influence Targeting U.S. and Allied Corporations

Author:: Daniel Byman
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: U.S. corporations are regular targets of foreign governments seeking to undermine the United States. These hostile states have both commercial and strategic motives, and they use disinformation, malinformation, and artificial promotion to tarnish the reputations of U.S. companies. U.S. corporations and the U.S. government should take steps to mitigate this threat, including improving corporate counterintelligence, building networks of advocates for use in crisis situations, and sharing more information on the scope and scale of the problem.
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, Geopolitics, Corporations, and Irregular Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

645. Building Critical Minerals Cooperation Between the United States and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is one of the world’s most resource-rich countries, and in 2024, it attracted the largest volume of mineral exploration investment in Africa. Enhancing U.S.-DRC cooperation is critical to counterbalance China’s dominance. The United States has historically underinvested in commercial diplomacy in the DRC, while China has established control over key mines through state-backed financing and infrastructure-for-resources deals. This brief answers two questions: First, how can the U.S. government utilize its resources to maximize impact in this sector? And second, what reforms can the DRC government implement to attract investment? Building the bilateral minerals partnership will require a suite of bilateral diplomatic, financial, and legislative reforms.
Topic:: Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, United States of America, and Democratic Republic of Congo

646. Could Allies Decide the Future of the Indo-Pacific?

Author:: Phillips O'Brien
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Edited by Jude Blanchette, formerly Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS, and Hal Brands of SAIS, the Marshall Papers is a series of essays that probes and challenges the assessments underpinning the U.S. approach to great power rivalry. The papers are rigorous yet provocative, continually pushing the boundaries of intellectual and policy debates. In this Marshall Paper, Phillips P. O’Brien assesses the critical importance of allies in deciding major conflicts and argues that a potential war between China and the United States in the Indo-Pacific would likely go on for an extended period, with the United States needing to lean on its regional allies for logistical support and for their manufacturing capacities. O’Brien argues that the U.S. allies appear strong on paper, but that they are untested, while China’s allies of Russia and North Korea, though weaker, appear much more willing to contribute serious resources to one another. Therefore, a long conflict may hinge more on commitment than on capability.
Topic:: International Security, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China and Indo-Pacific

647. Political and Legal Foundations of Russia’s Strategic Planning in the Field of Nuclear Weapons

Author:: Tatyana Kashirina
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: RUSSIA’S official position on nuclear deterrence is outlined in several strategic planning documents concerning national security and defense. The deterioration of the international situation, worsening Russian- American and Russian-European relations, and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2013-2014 prompted Moscow to revise its Military Doctrine in 2014. This document places significant emphasis on the increased activity of military forces unfriendly to Russia and foreign nations operating in territories adjacent to the Russian Federation and its allies. Among the key external military dangers are threats to global stability (which is primarily based on the possession of nuclear weapons) and regional stability through the development and deployment of strategic missile defense systems that disrupt the established balance of power in the nuclear missile domain. Other threats include the implementation of the “global strike” concept, intentions to deploy weapons in space, the proliferation of high-precision nonnuclear strategic systems, and the spread of weapons of mass destruction, missiles, and missile technologies.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Deterrence, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

648. Hermeneutics and Psychology of Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence

Author:: Vasily Belozyorov
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: RECENT developments surrounding Russia’s nuclear deterrence policy have sparked widespread reactions in Russia and abroad, ranging from belligerent and aggressive to eschatological and apocalyptic. On November 19, 2024, official guidelines were unveiled in the updated document titled Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence1 (hereinafter referred to as the Fundamentals). Several factors compelled Russia to revise its approaches to nuclear deterrence policy: the erosion of strategic stability, provocations and nuclear blackmail by Ukraine, and Western encouragement of the latter’s irresponsible and reckless leadership. The increasingly adversarial nature of global relations has brought the international system to the brink of large-scale war. The release of this new doctrinal policy provides a critical opportunity to analyze various aspects of Russia’s nuclear deterrence strategy.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Communications, Deterrence, Hermeneutics, Russia-Ukraine War, Perception, and Intimidation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

649. The Impact of Stereotyping on International Cyber Norm‑making: Navigating Misperceptions and Building Trust

Author:: Fan Yang
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Over the past three decades, cyberspace – a digital realm shaped by both technological and social dynamics – has evolved into a domain where a wide range of human activities now take place. These activities are marked by their anonymity, which complicates attribution, and their instantaneity, which challenges timely regulation. To address these challenges, states focus on two approaches: applying existing laws and creating new ones. While there is a general consensus that cyberspace should be governed by the rule of law, including international law, the application of existing legal frameworks to cyberspace remains an evolving challenge both in terms of state practice and academic discourse. At the same time, the international community has consistently sought to develop new norms to promote good governance in cyberspace. Against this backdrop, states – especially those with advanced cyber capabilities – are engaging in a competitive game of norm-making, striving to exert influence in shaping international rules to govern cyberspace. As part of this process, states often categorise each other by trying to highlight their counterparts’ most distinct characteristics. While such labelling is common in diplomatic interactions, it is particularly problematic in the context of international cyber norm-making. Labels reflect and reinforce stereotypes, which often oversimplify the complexities of states’ behavioural patterns in cyberspace and their underlying logic. States are thus roughly grouped by opposing indicators, such as those viewing cyberspace as a global commons versus sovereign territory, those advocating for an interconnected free Internet versus a fragmented “splinternet”, or those favouring multistakeholderism versus multilateralism as the dominant approach to the governance of cyberspace. Once established, these stereotypes are difficult to dismantle and can lead to distorted perceptions that obstruct constructive dialogue. This GCSP Policy Brief aims to identify the potential security challenges posed by stereotyping in international cyber norm-making processes. It then illustrates the policy implications of this problem and offers policy recommendations.
Topic:: Security, Cybersecurity, Norms, Cyberspace, and Trust
Political Geography:: Global Focus

650. Improving the Efficiency of NRC Power Reactor Licensing: Environmental Reviews

Author:: Matt Bowen and Rama T. Ponangi
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Achieving net-zero emissions in the United States by mid-century requires the rapid buildout of low-carbon energy infrastructure. One challenge to this rapid buildout is the environmental reviews required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which are part of federal approval processes for new energy projects. This process has increasingly caused significant delays and added costs, and the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) of 2023 was passed by Congress in part to address these issues through amendments to NEPA that impose timelines on environmental reviews. For nuclear power, a low-carbon energy source that has a role in many US net-zero scenarios, environmental reviews are conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) as part of its reactor licensing process. Because this process has at times been lengthy and costly, Congress passed the 2024 ADVANCE Act in part to require the NRC to implement its responsibilities under NEPA more efficiently. During the 2000s and 2010s, most of the environmental impact statements (EISs) these reviews produced would not have complied with NEPA’s new FRA timeline (two years or fewer) and page limit (150, or in extraordinary cases 300). More recent NRC environmental reviews for test reactor deployments have been somewhat quicker and had shorter review documents, perhaps a recognition by the agency that the efficiency of this process needed improvement. This report, part of a series of publications on nuclear licensing reform at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, focuses on how the NRC can fulfill the new legal mandates on time and page limits for environmental reviews and in general improve the efficiency of these reviews. The report demonstrates that earlier (1970s–80s) environmental reviews for nuclear power reactors licensed under the 10 CFR 50 licensing pathway took less time and generated shorter review documents than those conducted under 10 CFR 52 during the 2000s and 2010s. The latter reviews—all of which were for large light water reactor projects—also utilized substantial NRC resources, thereby incurring significant costs to the applicants. None of these reviews found that the reactor projects were expected to create what the NRC calls “large adverse” environmental impacts, which could destabilize environmental resources. Although some “moderate adverse” impacts were identified, they typically came from unavoidable elements such as new transmission lines and traffic that would result from any large construction project. And beneficial impacts always came in the form of jobs and taxes. At the very least, these findings raise questions about the allocation of time and resources to various aspects of the NRC’s environmental review.
Topic:: Environment, Regulation, Carbon Emissions, Nuclear Energy, and Permitting
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

651. Whom do African election campaigns contact? And does it matter?

Author:: Robert Mattes, Matthias Krönke, and Sarah J. Lockwood
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Canvassing is an important way in which political parties around the world raise awareness and connect with voters. Despite this, the literature on parties in new democracies, and Africa in particular, has tended to overlook this form of activity, focusing instead on vote buying, mass rallies, and meetings. In this paper, we use public opinion survey data from Afrobarometer and the Comparative National Elections Project to show that overall rates of canvassing in Africa are similar to other new, as well as many established, democracies. The data also challenge several dominant views of party campaigns in the Africanist literature. First, African parties do not concentrate primarily on turning out their base, rather than reaching across the partisan divide. Indeed, the opposite is the case. African parties expend more energy contacting nonpartisan independents and cross-partisans, and thus make a potentially meaningful contribution to the supply of multiparty competition. Second, the vast majority of contacts occur without any clientelist exchanges of material goods between parties and individual voters. And third, while incumbent parties enjoy canvassing advantages over opposition parties in around one-third of the surveyed countries, opposition parties (viewed collectively) match the party in power in terms of the ground game in another third, and enjoy higher rates of contact in yet another third.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Campaigning
Political Geography:: Africa

652. Proximity to riots: Spatial exposure and attitudes toward the police in Africa

Author:: Souleymane Yameogo
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Riots have devastating consequences for communities, including the destruction of infrastructure, businesses, and human lives. The police, tasked with restoring order, are often perceived as either protectors or sources of threat and incompetence. This research investigates the impact of riot exposure on public trust in the police by incorporating both temporal and spatial dimensions of exposure, diverging from previous studies that focused solely on temporal effects. Using the terror management theory (TMT) framework, extended to inter-group conflict, this study conceptualises the police and the public as distinct groups whose behaviours and attitudes may conflict during riots. Matching geocoded Afrobarometer data with the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and employing a spatial difference-in-differences analysis, the study reveals a complex relationship between riot exposure and public trust in the police. While exposure to riots negatively impacts trust among residents living closer to riot sites – driven by heightened anxiety and direct exposure to violence – it increases trust among those living farther away. Furthermore, riot type and severity play crucial roles. Mob violence, with its chaotic nature, tends to bolster trust in the police, while violent demonstrations, which are more organised and often pursue political goals, do not. Moreover, lethal riots erode public trust in police more than non-lethal ones do. These findings underscore the importance of context-sensitive policing strategies that address the security concerns of riot-affected communities while maintaining trust across diverse populations. Policy makers must balance suppressing violence with building resilience and protecting vulnerable communities.
Topic:: Political Violence, Governance, Law Enforcement, Institutions, Police, Professionalism, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Africa

653. Collateral Effects of the Tariff War on ASEAN Food Security

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Kayven Tan
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The United States and China are locked in a cycle of escalating tariffs, with likely knock-on impacts on global food supplies and prices. In response to increases in tariff rates imposed by the US on China’s exports, China hit back with additional tariffs on US$21 billion worth of US agricultural products in March 2025. Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs will mean an additional 10 per cent tariff on soybeans, sorghum, beef, pork, aquatic and dairy products, fruits, and vegetables, and an additional 15 per cent tariff on wheat, corn, maize, and chicken from the US. Given the tense words exchanged by leaders and officials on both sides in recent days, neither side appears ready to back down from these trade measures. The food security concern for ASEAN states is whether the trade war will impact the supply and prices of food in a region where 37 per cent, or 251 million people, cannot afford a healthy diet. Many Asian states rely heavily on imports for their food. Wheat is used in household staples such as noodles and bread, while corn and soybeans are used for food and livestock feed.
Topic:: Food Security, Tariffs, Trade Wars, ASEAN, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

654. Managing Global Biological Risks: Towards a Security-Health Coordination Framework

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Jeselyn, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The task of securing the world against biological risks is complicated by enforcement and information challenges. A security-health coordination framework is crucial for securing cooperation among a diverse set of actors with different but converging mandates.
Topic:: Security, Biosecurity, Crisis Management, Risk, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

655. Protecting Food Security in the Face of Tariffs and Trade Wars

Author:: Paul Teng
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The uncertainty caused by tariffs and trade disputes affects food security. Increases in geopolitical tensions will undermine the best plans to maintain global supply chains, encouraging countries to develop alternative ones. Consumers in Southeast Asia, even though far from the geographic areas of dispute, will ultimately suffer from interruptions in food availability and price hikes. National strategies to ensure food security are needed.
Topic:: Food Security, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

656. Southeast Asia’s Renewable Energy Ambition: The Case of Vietnam

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Southeast Asia has made remarkable progress in expanding renewable energy sources. Facilitated by the various national policies that are in place to encourage their development, the share of renewable energy sources in the region’s installed capacity has increased significantly, rising from around 20 percent to 33 percent in the last twenty years, and is expected to surpass the regional 35 percent target by 2025. While the regional figures look promising, individual countries differ in terms of speed, scale, and the choice of renewable energy technologies developed. Vietnam is a forerunner of renewable energy expansion in Southeast Asia. Significant investments have been made in utility-scale solar and wind power projects since mid-2010s, particularly in provinces with high renewable energy potential such as Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan, Bac Lieu and Quang Tri. The country added 1,718 Megawatt (MW) of hydropower and 3,405MW of wind power between 2020 and 2022, which accounted for around half of additional hydropower capacity and all of additional wind power capacity in Southeast Asia during that period. Similarly, the country’s solar power development made up approximately 70 percent of additional solar power capacity in Southeast Asia between 2013 and 2022.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Investment, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: Vietnam and Southeast Asia

657. Biosecurity Awareness and Education in Southeast Asia

Author:: Julius Caesar Trajano and Jeselyn
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: ASEAN leaders recognise the critical importance of biosecurity. But there is a need to enhance the security culture and biosecurity awareness among life science, medical, and biotechnology professionals to mitigate the misuse of biological materials.
Topic:: Security, Education, Biosecurity, and Biotechnology
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

658. California Wildfires and Planetary Health

Author:: Pey Peili
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The California wildfires are an environmental disaster, but they also point to a deeper set of challenges, not only for the United States of America but for the global community. Such wildfires, which are ever-increasing in frequency and scale due to the impact of climate change, result in structural damage and long-term health risks that disproportionately affect vulnerable communities and are a costly burden to the state. A planetary health approach highlights the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the climate-environment-health interface in managing the risk and incidence of wildfires.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, Natural Disasters, and Wildfires
Political Geography:: California, North America, and United States of America

659. Assad Regime's Rapid Fall Rattles Russia's Middle East Strategy

Author:: Filip Bryjka
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria seriously weakens Russia’s position in the Middle East and its ability to provide security to its allies. After 13 years of supporting the dictatorship, Russia is also losing its ability to influence the political situation in Syria and its neighbourhood The Russian government’s priority is to keep the right to use the military bases in the country—a naval base in Tartus and an air base in Khmeimim. Losing them would make it difficult for Russia to conduct military operations in the Mediterranean and Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, Influence, and Military Bases
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, and Syria

660. Moldova and Separatist Transnistria Facing Severe Energy Crisis

Author:: Jakub Pieńkowski
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since 1 January, Ukraine—struggling to fight off the Russian invasion—has not extended permission for the transit of Russian gas to Transnistria, which had received free supplies from Russia, leading to an energy crisis. Moldova, in turn, has lost access to cheap electricity produced by the Transnistrian gas-fired power plant at Kuchurgan (MGRES), causing energy prices to rise dramatically. This weakens the prospects for the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) to remain in power after this year’s parliamentary elections.
Topic:: Separatism, Energy Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Moldova and Transnistria

661. Trump Takes on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s actions and announcements to date regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are reversing the decisions of previous administrations and strengthening Benjamin Netanyahu’s political position. At the same time, they threaten the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The deliberately ambiguous statements about the resolution of the crisis seem gauged to increase pressure on regional states and European partners.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

662. China Building Up BRICS as Important Foreign Policy Tool

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: BRICS is useful for China in its rivalry with the U.S., mainly as a tool to influence developing countries. It is also an important element of strategic cooperation with Russia and a platform for dialogue with India. China does not care about BRICS integration, instead it wants to consolidate the group’s participants to further China’s goals.. The EU’s response to this should include effective support for developing countries and a subjective approach to their demands for global governance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, BRICS, Rivalry, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

663. The U.S. Pursues Increasingly Aggressive Policy towards Latin America

Author:: Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to rebuild U.S. influence in Latin America. It is trying to convince the countries of the region that cooperation with the United States will bring development and increased security to the Americas. For the time being, however, this approach mainly serves U.S. security interests, in particular combating irregular migration, organised crime and drug trafficking, and reducing China’s influence. The current administration’s threats, inconsistent positions, and expansionist drive will deepen the distrust of the U.S. and antagonise important Latin American partners.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, Donald Trump, Strategic Interests, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

664. U.S. Interest in Greenland Reflects the Ongoing Competition in the Arctic

Author:: Kinga Dudzińska and Paweł Markiewicz
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested his intention to attach Greenland to the U.S., a move that has met with opposition from the Greenlandic and Danish governments. The pressure from the U.S. is one manifestation of its aspirations to strengthen its position in the North Atlantic, both because of the strategic importance of the island and the growing international rivalries in the Arctic. The situation will require greater EU and NATO involvement in the High North, as well as consideration of this perspective by countries outside the region, such as Poland.
Topic:: NATO, European Union, Donald Trump, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Greenland, Arctic, and United States of America

665. Baltic and Nordic States Assess the Russian Military Threat

Author:: Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The newest intelligence reports by the Baltic and Nordic states jointly warn about the aggressive intentions and reconstitution of Russia’s armed forces. All of the documents assume the successful implementation of plans for larger Russian land and airborne forces till the end of 2026. However, these reports differ in the estimates of when the political moment and Russia’s conventional capabilities may permit it to initiate open conflict with NATO. Despite their informational and analytical contents, these reports may affect the Baltic region states’ capabilities development plans and their decisions about whether to increase defence spending.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States

666. İmamoğlu Arrested: Türkiye Shifting to Autocracy

Author:: Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Demonstrations in Türkiye erupted in March when the Istanbul prosecutor’s office launched an investigation of that city’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opponent of current head of state Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2028 presidential contest. The attack on the opposition candidate appears to be a turning point indicating Türkiye’s entry onto the path of authoritarianism, which will negatively affect the state of Turkish-EU relations.
Topic:: European Union, Domestic Politics, Autocracy, and Ekrem İmamoğlu
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

667. Social contracts and the UN’s “Common Goals”: conceptualising a new role for international organisations

Author:: Markus Loewe and Tina Zintl
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Researchers, policymakers and the representatives of international organisations increasingly use the term “social contract” to describe relations between societal groups and a state. The United Nations (UN) Secretary-General, for example, has declared that “now is the time to renew the social contract between Governments and their people and within societies” in his report Our common agenda (UN, 2021, p. 5). Likewise, the Director General of the International Labour Organization (ILO) has recently issued a report Towards a renewed social contract (ILO, 2024). The question is whether all those applying the term “social contract” have a common understanding of its meaning. We suggest defining a social contract as the “entirety of explicit or implicit agreements between all relevant societal groups and the sovereign (i.e. the government or any other actor in power), defining their rights and obligations toward each other” (Loewe, Zintl, & Houdret, 2021). Today, all countries with some form of government have national social contracts, but there are wide variations between them. For instance, some social contracts are more inclusive than others, giving more rights to society. Some treat different societal groups differently, depending on their respective power and the interests of the government. And, crucially, only some social contracts consider, at least to some degree, the interests of those who are, by definition or because of their limited power, unable to voice their concerns in any renegotiation of the social contract – children, future generations, the environment, foreigners and marginalised social groups. The UN Secretary-General’s report rightly complains that people in many countries feel increasingly alienated from the social contract (UN, 2021, p. 22) and that social contracts ignore the rights of future generations. In many countries, social contracts give rights to some influential groups in society to use available resources without consideration for less powerful groups, future generations and environmental concerns. International organisations thus have four important roles to play. First, they can support the national process of social contract renegotiations: ease the dialogue between all interest groups inside member countries, encourage the involvement of less powerful actors and provide neutral and open fora for the negotiations. Second, they can engage in a dialogue with member states that are reluctant to reform social contracts, emphasising that such reform can mitigate or help to prevent terrorism, violent protest and mass migration. Third, international organisations can prepare themselves to get involved when shocks happen in particular member countries and use the momentum to foster substantial reforms. Fourth, international organisations should continue building supra-national social contracts. All too often, the parties of national social contracts negotiate unsustainable rules at national level that, for instance, expose workers to health hazards or harm the environment, with the argument that they have to be able to compete with other countries. International agreements are therefore important to establish minimum norms and standards, prevent a race to the bottom and reinforce multilateralism.
Topic:: International Organization, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Social Contract
Political Geography:: Global Focus

668. Allocating international loss and damage finance through national climate funds: prospects for African LDCs

Author:: Mariya Aleksandrova, Washington Onyango Kanyangi, Assouhan Jonas Atchadé, Joanes Atela, and Charles Tonui
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The new loss and damage funding framework under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) emphasises the importance of channelling support through national systems and mechanisms. This approach could prove particularly challenging for African least developed ountries (LDCs), which have been prioritised for support. These countries remain confronted with major challenges to access and utilise international climate finance, especially through direct access. National climate funds (NCFs) can have a potential role in delivering international loss and damage finance to African LDCs that is in line with their national priorities. NCFs can be defined as entities mandated to finance the implementation of national climate strategies and to manage and/or coordinate domestic and international sources of climate finance. NCFs can enhance the institutional capacities of countries by supporting the development of loss and damage strategies, facilitating access to international funding, aligning resource allocation with local priorities, and ensuring the effective tracking of loss and damage finance. This Policy Brief explores the role of NCFs in the evolving global loss and damage finance architecture with a focus on African LDCs. We examine the design features of five NCFs against criteria for assessing their relevance to support measures that address loss and damage. The studied NCFs are: the Benin National Fund for Environment and Climate, Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy Facility, Burkina Faso’s Intervention Fund for the Environment, the Mali Climate Fund and the Rwanda Green Climate Fund. Key policy messages • Despite that only a limited number of African LDCs have established NCFs, these demonstrate their potential to channel loss and damage funding, especially for environmental rehabilitation and climate-resilient recovery efforts. Particular strengths relate to their role in priority sectors for climate change adaptation and in relation to biodiversity loss, drought, land degradation and desertification. • Existing NCFs in African LDCs have inadequate mandates and capacities to manage the complex funding needed for loss and damage. An emerging issue is their presently limited role in linking climate and disaster risk finance. • The NCFs of African LDCs can be instrumental to promote coherence and complementarity with other funding sources at the national level. Countries must establish comprehensive legislative, policy and regulatory frameworks to define the institutional roles of NCFs in loss and damage response, supported by international funding to strengthen their institutional capacities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Africa

669. Global health at a crossroads: policy recommendations in light of the Lancet Global Health 2050 Report

Author:: Christoph Strupat, Marco Schäferhoff, Martin Siegel, and Anna-Katharina Hornidge
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: At a time of global crisis and competing priorities, investing in health is among the most impactful and cost-effective decisions governments and stakeholders can make. Beyond being a fundamental right, health is a catalyst for growth, stability and resilience – particularly in uncertain times. The new Global Health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (Global Health 2050) report (Jamison et al., 2024) of the Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (the Commission) builds on a legacy of evidence-driven reports to provide strategies for making health a cross-cutting enabler of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Global Health 2050 provides a roadmap for further health improvements in all countries by mid-century, arguing that by 2050 countries can reduce by 50% the probability of premature death (PPD) in their populations. The Commission calls this goal “50 by 50”. Germany has solidified its role in global health through significant investments in the health sector and by designating global health as a political priority, as demonstrated by its Global Health Strategy and the inclusion of global health as one of the core themes of the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). Given this political priority, it is essential to assess the implications of the Global Health 2050 report for Germany’s global health agenda, especially as global health stands at a crossroads following the withdrawal of the United States (US) from the World Health Organization (WHO) and cuts to its global health programmes. Therefore, the aim of this policy brief is to build upon the Commission’s findings and draw from scientific evidence to provide key recommendations for Germany’s global health agenda. Five recommendations have been synthesised that align with Germany’s global health engagement and offer promising strategies to help achieve the 50 by 50 goal: 1. Sustain or ideally increase funding for the Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria at the upcoming replenishment conferences and strengthen Germany’s global health leadership through strong bilateral support, investments in pandemic preparedness and response (PPR) and better interministerial coordination. 2. Reconsider non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in future strategic direction of German international cooperation by reducing financial and geo-graphical barriers to access to medicines and addressing key NCD risk factors. 3. Promote health taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages that can serve as an effective strategy to improve public health and generate domestic revenue. 4. Increase funding for R&D in neglected diseases. Expand regional manufacturing, and enhance global health innovation coordination to strength-en global health security and reduce dependence on external supply chains. 5. Nepal serves as a good example of Germany’s bilateral health and social protection support: advancing the 50 by 50 goal could be achieved by strengthening national health insurance, addressing climate risks, expanding health taxes and enhancing pharmaceutical access through the Arrow mechanism.
Topic:: Development, Investment, Public Health, Global Health, and Disease
Political Geography:: Global Focus

670. Enhancing public works programmes: sustainable impact through participatory asset creation and digitalisation

Author:: Francesco Burchi and Tekalign Gutu Sakketa
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Public works programmes (PWPs) are widely used social protection instruments in low- and middle-income countries. Participants carry out temporary, labour-intensive works in exchange for cash or in-kind compensation. The available empirical evidence indicates that these programmes are usually effective in improving outcomes such as food security and earnings in the short term, but these positive effects rarely persist in the long term. Our knowledge of PWPs’ effectiveness is, however, incomplete as scholars have mostly examined programme impacts through the wage channel, largely neglecting the skill-development and, especially, the asset channels. PWP participants engage in the construction of assets, such as roads, check dams and sewage systems, that could provide important benefits for the whole community. Without assessing these effects, it is normal to arrive at the general (biased) conclusion that cash transfers (CTs) are always more cost-effective than PWPs. Moreover, the effectiveness of PWPs largely depends on programme design, implementation and context. Based on the existing empirical evidence and our recent fieldwork to analyse Malawi’s PWP, this policy brief provides the following policy recommendations for how to enhance the potential of these programmes. • Policy-makers should design PWPs to guarantee stable, reliable employment; set wages not higher than market levels but high enough to incentivise participation; ensure transparency in the targeting, possibly by involving communities and at the sametime avoiding elite capture; align the timing of work cycles with local agricultural calendars; and assign tasks in a way that reduces travel burdens,especially for women. • Policy-makers should promote active community participation in the identification and maintenance of the assets created through PWPs. Evidence points to the importance of community participation for the implementation of higher quality infrastructure and better long-term maintenance. Only in this way, can these assets provide sustainable benefits not just for programme participants, but for the entire community. Approaches like those used in Ethiopia and Malawi can serve as models to enhance active community participation in the programme cycle. • Digitalisation of PWPs (and social protection ingeneral) should be promoted as it offers great advantages, but specific measures should be adopted to avoid their negative consequences: 1. The construction of a digital registry of beneficiaries is a great tool to reach the intended beneficiaries and coordinate the various schemes. Development cooperation actors should provide technical support for the creation and updating of these databases, then leave them in the hands of national institutions. 2. The digitalisation of reporting systems for work activities is likely to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the information reported. To achieve this, it is essential to provide the “digitisers” withproper training. 3. It is important to move from physical cash payments to e-payments, but it is firstly necessary to ensure adequate digital literacy through training. Moreover, to compensate for the impossibility to interact with programme officials at the time of payment, PWPs should include complaint handling points, as is done in India.
Topic:: Development, Digitalization, Assets, and Social Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

671. Can guarantees effectively leverage financing for SMEs in low- and middle-income countries?

Author:: Bao-We-Wal Bambe
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will require significant financing and investment, particularly as growing challenges from climate events highlight the insufficiency of public funds to meet the 2030 Agenda (World Economic Forum 2024). Private capital for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) surged in recent years, with significant commitments from multilateral development banks (MDBs). However, the financing gap to achieve the SDGs remains sizable, highlighting the need for greater effort to mobilise much larger private capital for sustainable development. In recent years, guarantees have emerged as a key leveraging mechanism. They are designed to mitigate high investment risks to support private capital mobilisation in LMICs. However, despite some progress, guarantees are used sparingly, suggesting considerable scope for increasing their scale, as highlighted by the G20 Independent Expert Group (IEG). This Policy Brief examines whether guarantees can serve as an effective leveraging mechanism for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This is especially so because SMEs remain largely hampered by poor access to finance, despite their key role in providing jobs for the local population and contributing to economic growth. Moreover, in the face of climate change, SME adaptation requires new investments in climate-resistant technologies and clean energies, highlighting the need for additional financing amid severe constraints on access to capital. Guarantees can complement other leveraging mechanisms, further easing financing constraints for SMEs in LMICs. Guarantees can absorb some of the risks associated with investment, offering financial institutions greater security. This added security can, in turn, help improve access to capital for SMEs. On the other hand, they can also help catalyse private sector investment in LMICs. Recognising both the potential benefits and short-comings of guarantees, this Policy Brief provides the following policy recommendations on how guarantees could be extended efficiently to the SME sector in LMICs. • Guarantees should be directed at financial institu-tions to mitigate portfolio risk and actively promote lending to small projects or SMEs in high-risk sectors, particularly those with the potential to generate substantial economic, environmental, or social benefits. • Complement guarantees with additional measures to improve SMEs’ financial management, enhance risk assessment, and strengthen technical capacity through professional training and advisory services. • Implement partial credit guarantees to require financial institutions to retain a share of the risk, thereby reducing moral hazard and promoting rigorous analyses of borrowers’ creditworthiness. Complement these guarantees with conditionalities and monitoring criteria, such as regular reporting, to ensure the incrementality and additionality of guaranteed financing. Enhance the harmonisation of guarantees with other leveraging mechanisms, improve coordination among MDBs and DFIs, and streamline guarantee frameworks to achieve greater efficiency. • Recognise that guarantees alone cannot address structural vulnerabilities and institutional weakness in LMICs; a long-term commitment from decision-makers is essential to improve institutional and economic performance.
Topic:: Development, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Investment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

672. Securing a development-friendly US trade policy: the urgent need for an AGOA revamp

Author:: Wolfgang Britz, Zoryana Olekseyuk, and Tim Vogel
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In times of heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, it is increasingly vital to secure a development-friendly approach toward African countries. They are among the most vulnerable to climate change, conflicts and pandemics, yet are also gaining geo-economic significance. Given the expiry of the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in 2020 and the upcoming expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in September 2025, Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries urge policymakers to timely reauthorise and upgrade the non-reciprocal trade programme to improve market access to the US and ensure long-term support for sustainable development across the African continent. While the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 was introduced to Congress with bipartisan support, the election of Donald Trump and his “America First” approach have increased doubts about a swift extension of AGOA. This policy brief examines the potential effects of the expirations of GSP and AGOA using a multi-region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. By simulating the shift from duty-free to Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment, we find the following: All in all, aggregated effects over all countries are rather muted while some specific countries face strong losses. Whereas bilateral exports of AGOA-eligible countries to the US decline by 3.7%, their total exports fall by only 0.1%, with real GDP remaining almost unaffected. Looking more closely, specific SSA countries would face high bilateral losses: The most substantial reduction of exports to the US occurs in Lesotho (-35%), Malawi (-25%) and Kenya (-16%), while welfare decline is the highest in Lesotho and Mauritius. The most affected sectors are sugar, wearing apparel, leather, dairy products, and beverages and tobacco. The limited aggregate effects of a loss in trade preferences are mainly driven by relatively weak ties of SSA to the US and rather low US MFN tariff rates. This highlights the limited effectiveness of the AGOA preference scheme, indicating that its renewal should go hand in hand with a comprehensive modernisation of the programme. While the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 acknowledges this, it still falls short of modernising the programme in some key areas. To ensure long-term benefits for SSA economies, we recommend: • A swift reauthorisation for a longer period, incorporating continuation provisions to reduce future uncertainty. • More transparent and predictable eligibility reviews, with a possibility of partial exclusion for non-compliance, would also help mitigate uncertainty. • Expansion of rules of origin, which is crucial for stimulating intra-continental trade and enhancing value addition within SSA. • Widening the programme’s scope by addressing, for example, digital trade, services, non-tariff measures, regulatory cooperation and investment facilitation.
Topic:: Development, Exports, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

673. A new development paradigm and strategy for the OECD (and beyond): what should the ‘D’ of OECD stand for?

Author:: Andy Sumner, Stephan Klingebiel, and Arief Anshory Yusuf
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the evolving role of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in addressing global development challenges in the mid-2020s. At a time when a new development strategy is being drafted for the OECD, we provide a fresh perspective by exploring the tensions inherent in the definition of “development” and asking whose development the OECD seeks to support. Historically, the OECD extended its remit beyond its membership through mechanisms such as Official Development Assistance (ODA). However, considering the increasing prominence of South–South cooperation, private sector investment and intensifying geopolitical competition, ODA alone is insufficient for sustainable development needs, and for many countries of the Global South ODA no longer matters as much as it used to due to the growth of domestic resources. One of the most significant shifts within the OECD itself in recent years is in its identity, largely as a result of its expanding membership. This now totals 38 countries, including some from the Global South, and this trend is set to continue, with a set of Southern countries currently in the accession process. While this enlargement may strengthen the OECD’s relevance in a multipolar world, it also challenges the organisation’s traditional identity as a “club of mostly rich countries”, as The Economist has often referred to it. Employing a novel 2x2 matrix framework, we delineate four strategic scenarios for OECD development strategy: (i) “traditional development” within OECD member states (D-within), (ii) traditional development beyond OECD membership (D-beyond), (iii) “frontier development” within OECD member states, and (iv) frontier development beyond the organisation’s membership. The use of the term “traditional development” refers to an aggregate growth orientation of development without reference to inclusivity or sustainability. “Frontier development” is then the converse. The authors argue for an OECD development strategy that bridges “D-within” and “D-beyond”, by acknowledging the transnational spillover effects of the domestic policies of OECD countries on the Global South. Further, across the matrix framework, we advocate for the OECD to strengthen its engagement with the analysis and promotion of policy coherence for sustainable development (PCSD) as a means of providing global leadership in sustainable development. In theory, promoting PCSD necessitates the integration of economic, social and environmental dimensions across all policy areas, alongside a commitment to addressing long-term and transboundary impacts. Further, we highlight the imperative of engaging non-member states to enhance the inclusivity and relevance of the OECD’s development strategy within an increasingly multipolar global order. In sum, we argue that the OECD is at a pivotal juncture. Its capacity to adapt and redefine its developmental mandate will determine its future relevance in the global governance architecture. By prioritising leadership on global sustainable development, PSCD and an inclusive approach to non-OECD members, the OECD has the potential to serve as a transformative force.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, and OECD
Political Geography:: Global Focus

674. Overcoming silos for One Health: key determinants of One Health governance platforms in low- and lower middle-income countries

Author:: Christoph Strupat
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This study addresses a critical gap in One Health governance literature by providing a comprehensive review of cross-sectoral One Health governance platforms in low- and lower-middle-income countries across Asia and Africa. These platforms are pivotal for building resilience and improving governance at the human–animal–environment interface. Using a scoping review methodology, the study identifies 34 One Health platforms established across 52% of these countries, with a primary focus on zoonotic diseases and a growing emphasis on antimicrobial resistance and food safety. A polycentric governance lens was applied to analyse the interplay of authority, resources and information in shaping platform functionality. Key findings highlight that authority imbalances and single-sector dominance undermine stakeholder engagement, insufficient financial and human resources hinder operational capacity. Furthermore, weak data-sharing protocols limit timely coordination and evidence-based decision-making. The review identifies critical entry points for enhancing platform efficacy: clarifying governance frameworks, investing in cross-sectoral human capacity-building and strengthening data-sharing infrastructures with robust protocols and interoperable platforms.
Topic:: Development, Governance, and Public Health
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia

675. Financing for development: from Monterrey to Seville

Author:: Stephan Klingebiel, Jorge A. Pérez-Pineda, and Kathrin Berensmann
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The United Nations financing for development process, including the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) in Seville in 2025, is an important building block to foster global cooperation amid the current geopolitical tensions and multiple crises that have led to increased development financing needs on the one hand, and increased spending on the other, with the OECD estimating that the financing gap in funding required for developing countries to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals is $3.9 trillion per year. Against this backdrop, a coordinated international effort is essential to increase the scale and effectiveness of development financing and promote sustainable development globally, particularly in line with the 2030 Agenda. The overarching goal of the FfD process, including FfD4, is to mobilise adequate financial resources for the sustainable development of countries in the Global South, and to design appropriate architectures for development and sustainable finance. The FfD process is unique in that it takes a holistic approach, involving all sources of development finance and all public and private stakeholders. In this respect, the FfD process has an extraordinary convening power. The purpose of this Discussion Paper is to provide meaningful input to the preparatory process of FfD4 by offering insights into key challenges, opportunities and innovative approaches. The paper aims to contribute to the broader dialogue on financing for sustainable development and support informed decision-making for a robust and inclusive development agenda beyond 2030. Topics range from reforms of official development assistance, innovative approaches to private-sector and sustainable finance, and innovative reforms of multilateral development banks.
Topic:: Development, United Nations, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and OECD
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Global South

676. How to deal with the current debt crisis of developing countries?

Author:: Jürgen K. Zattler
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Many countries are still struggling with high and rising debt levels. The economic impact of the pandemic, as well as some longer-term structural factors, explain this situation. The key problem is the high level of debt service relative to government revenues, which makes it difficult to address growing development, social and climate challenges. As this is a particular problem for low-income countries (LICs) and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), the focus should be on these countries. But even within this group, the situation is not uniform. A differentiated approach with different components is therefore needed, depending on countries’ individual situations and their own priorities and choices. There have been many contributions to this debate and proposals on how to address the current problems. This paper builds on some of those contributions presenting a practical and coherent approach to address the current debt crisis which focuses as far as possible on incentives for debtor countries and private creditors. Importantly, a distinction should be made between countries with high debt levels that are at risk of debt distress and those with liquidity problems. Therefore, debt sustainability assessments (DSAs) are needed to decide which countries (a) are not in debt distress, (b) have an insolvency problem, and (c) have a liquidity problem. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank should be asked to classify all LICs and LMICs accordingly, based on updated DSAs, using a prudent approach with conservative projections. These DSAs must emphasise debt service indicators. For countries with liquidity problems, they need to identify those countries where the problem is of a longer-term nature, with a risk that the liquidity squeeze will turn into acute debt distress. All LICs and LMICs facing insolvency or liquidity problems should be offered a moratorium similar to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) to give them breathing space (of 2-3 years). The expectation is that this would help countries with liquidity problems to maintain basic social and economic services until market conditions improve or debt relief is implemented. In cases where debt service remains high after the moratorium expires, the country would be expected to request debt relief. Countries at risk of default would be expected to use the period of the moratorium to engage promptly in restructuring discussions and to prepare negotiations with creditors on a debt relief programme. The IMF would make its resources conditional on a suspension of debt service payments. The question is whether private creditors, including sovereign bondholders, should be required to participate. It is suggested that a distinction be made between two categories of countries. For countries at risk of insolvency, including those with longer-term liquidity problems, the moratorium should be conditional on private participation on comparable terms, as their creditworthiness is likely to be affected anyway. In contrast, with countries facing short-term liquidity problems the approach should be more flexible. While pressure on private creditors to join a standstill should be maximised, this should be complemented by strong incentives. Countries with unsustainable debt would request treatment under a reformed G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatment (CF) with the option of a more comprehensive debt relief arrangement (“CF+”), including the following enhanced or new components: • At the beginning of the process, countries would have to present a “Just Green Transition Programme” (JGTP), monitored by the IMF and the World Bank. • The CF+ would be accompanied by more comprehensive debt relief, thus creating more fiscal space to allow the country to finance transformational and social investments. Debt service after rescheduling should be based on DSAs, which pay greater attention to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) investments and countries’ particular circumstances, leaving countries with substantial room to absorb shocks. The objective would be to limit the debt burden to external creditors as a share of revenue after rescheduling to around 10-15 per cent. • For those countries where a large part of the debt service will be due to multilateral creditors, the involvement of multilateral institutions should be considered. This should be the case for those multilateral creditors which are not willing, or able, to provide positive net flows at highly concessional terms. • The issuance of “Brady-like” bonds could be considered for specific country cases. The issuance of Brady-like bonds could be an incentive to maximise private creditor participation in exchanging old debt for new bonds with a significant discount or “haircut”.
Topic:: Debt, Development, Sustainability, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

677. Carbon leakage through supply chain adjustments

Author:: Hanyi Wang
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper examines carbon leakage through supply chain recalibration in response to European carbon policies. Using input-output data and a high-frequency identification approach for carbon policy shocks, this paper investigates whether stringent carbon regulations in Europe affect the imports of carbon-intensive inputs from major emerging economies lacking similar policies. The findings reveal a temporary increase in the rate of change of imports from emerging countries relative to all inputs in the carbon-intensive sectors following carbon policy shocks, with effects peaking after two years before dissipating. While not directly quantifying emissions transfer, this study suggests some evidence of short-term input substitution patterns consistent with carbon leakage through international supply chains.
Topic:: Carbon Emissions, Imports, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Europe

678. Local feminist perspectives as transformation levers for greater gender equality: synthesis study

Author:: Jacqueline Götze, Stephan Klingebiel, and Maryam Khalid
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The significance of gender equality needs to be spotlighted since women and LGBTQIA* communities are prone to become victims of violence and have limited participation in political and decision-making processes. The approaches of feminist development policies and feminist foreign policies have been criticised for their potential inapplicability to diverse contexts and for perpetuating paternalistic or neo-colonial behaviours. The global rise of right-wing policies has influenced politics, prompting researchers on feminist policies to critically examine their limitations and the ways they have been institutionalised. The present study builds on the expertise, knowledge and experiences of partners from Ghana, India and Ukraine. It introduces local feminist perspectives as levers for transformative change for greater gender equality that can produce context-specific alternative approaches to development processes by addressing prevailing norms and practices, and thereby enhance access to resources and improve the political participation of women, girls and members of the LGBTQIA* communities. This synthesis study identifies common themes, challenges and opportunities across the three case studies prepared by the partner organisations through a combination of deductive and inductive processes. We have developed a matrix of 13 criteria, which can be categorised into five thematic clusters that include: intersectionality, special characteristics of local feminisms and gender (in)equalities, multi-directional flow of norms, challenges and opportunities for gender-transformative change, and future of gender-transformative policies. Key findings reveal persistent barriers faced by local feminist perspectives in influencing policy, decision-making and gender norms due to limited possibilities and restricted opportunities.
Topic:: Feminism, LGBT+, Decision-Making, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Ukraine, India, and Ghana

679. Local feminist perspectives as transformative levers: women’s health and climate action in India

Author:: Sreerupa Sengupta, Divya Singhal, and Ananya Chakraborty
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This study explores the transformative potential of local feminist perspectives in addressing systemic gender inequalities in India, focusing on women’s health and climate action. Anchored in global frameworks, such as the Beijing Declaration (1995) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and rooted in India’s historical milestones, such as the Towards Equality Report in 1974 (Government of India, 1974), this research examines how caste, class, gender, sexuality and disability intersect to perpetuate inequities. Despite progress in education, health, and political representation, deep-seated patriarchal norms and structural barriers continue to undermine women’s agency, as reflected in India’s low ranking on the Global Gender Gap Report 2024 (World Economic Forum, 2024). Using intersectional and eco-feminist frameworks, the study employs a qualitative, multi-method approach, including 31 key informant interviews and a stakeholder dialogue involving 40 participants from non-governmental organisations (NGOs), community organisations and feminist collectives. By integrating lived experiences with policy analysis, this study highlights how local feminist movements in India have challenged entrenched social norms, amplified marginalised voices and innovated to provide context-specific solutions. The findings reveal persistent health inequities among women, compounded by caste and disability, and critique health policies for their technocratic focus. Interventions by community organisations as well as governments, such as community health workers and self-help groups, have emerged as vital platforms for addressing reproductive and menstrual health needs while fostering social change. In climate action, women face disproportionate vulnerabilities due to caregiving roles and resource dependencies. However, localised initiatives, including women-led renewable energy programmes and sustainable agriculture practices, showcase their potential as agents of environmental resilience. The study advocates for recognising intersectional vulnerabilities, converging across sectors, improving participatory governance, strengthening capacity building of community organisations, and including divergent experiences of women in policy and intersectional funding models. By situating feminist knowledge within actionable frameworks, it presents a replicable model for integrating gender justice into health and climate strategies, offering lessons for global contexts. The report underscores the necessity of sustained collaboration among community actors, women’s advocacy groups, policymakers and donors to foster systemic equity and resilience.
Topic:: Climate Change, Women, Sustainable Development Goals, and Feminism
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

680. Local feminist perspectives as transformation levers for sustainable development in Ukraine in the context of ongoing defence

Author:: Olena Strelnyk, Liudmyla Yuzva, and Tamara Zlobina
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The research in this discussion paper explores the significant role of feminist perspectives and actions in fostering sustainable gender-transformative changes within Ukraine, particularly during the ongoing defence against Russian aggression. It highlights the ability of feminist movements to catalyse long-term shifts towards gender equality and social inclusion, with a focus on women’s and LGBT+ rights. Despite the challenges of war, feminist activists continue to push for transformative policies that not only address immediate wartime needs, but also lay the foundation for gender-responsive defence, inclusive recovery and post-war reconstruction. This study examines the impact of feminist actions and perspectives on various sectors of Ukrainian society, the barriers they face and the opportunities that remain for strengthening feminist policies during and after the war. The research timeline spans 2014-2024, corresponding to the duration of Russia’s war against Ukraine, with a particular emphasis on the period of the full-scale invasion from 2022 to 2024.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Feminism, LGBT+, Russia-Ukraine War, Sustainable Development, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

681. Feminists’ perspectives as transformative levers in Ghana

Author:: Fidelia N. A. Ohemeng, Deda Ogum, Deborah Tayo Akakpo, and Dorcas Coker-Appiah
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Ghana is a multi-party, multi-ethnic and multi-religious state, with a dominant influence of socio-cultural norms and practices that impact negatively on women in their everyday lives. Most Ghanaians are subject to customary law which discriminates against women, even though Ghana practises legal pluralism. The overall aim of the study is to explore and analyse contemporary feminist perspectives and organising in Ghana to demonstrate how they can be used as levers for transformative change for greater equality and sustainable development. This was a cross-sectional and fully qualitative study involving 35 feminists and women’s rights advocates between the ages of 37 and 80+ years, with the majority (n=25) having over 20 years of experience and relevant postgraduate degrees. Data collection, analysis and conceptualisation were guided by the gender-transformative approach and the gender at work frameworks. Our findings show that gender inequity occurs in both formal and informal spaces. Strongly held socio-cultural norms emanating from patriarchy influence women’s daily lives, and the decisions made within sub-national and national legislature. Feminist strategies span general awareness creation, through lobbying, writing and reviewing of content for policies and laws, increasing the visibility of bills to picketing to ensure the passage and implementation of applicable laws or policies. Participants consider their strategies successful despite challenges such as backlash, burnout, and the lack of funding for their activities.
Topic:: Civil Society, Education, Feminism, Sustainable Development, Gender Equality, and Customary Law
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

682. Intersecting constraints: exploring labour market barriers for urban women in Sub-Sahara Africa

Author:: Alexander Stöcker
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This study examines the determinants of female labour force participation (FLFP) and female wage employment (FWE) of urban women in four SSA countries: Benin, Senegal, Uganda and Zambia. Using extensive micro-level data and a unified empirical framework, we investigate the multitude of constraints women face in both these dimensions. The methodology tries to bridge the drawbacks of typical macro-level cross-country studies and detailed country case studies, enabling direct comparisons over time and across countries. Key findings highlight substantial cross-country heterogeneity in barriers to female employment, including education, household wealth, motherhood, and male breadwinner norms. While higher education consistently enhances FLFP and FWE, motherhood negatively affects wage employment more persistently than labour force participation. Interaction effects between barriers, such as motherhood and male breadwinner norms, underscore their compounded impact. Additionally, local labour market conditions, namely the variety of occupations available, moderate these barriers, amplifying disadvantages for women in labour markets with higher levels of occupational variety. The study emphasises the importance of context-specific policy interventions. Recommendations include vocational training in Benin, advocacy for shifting restrictive norms in Senegal, targeted support for labour market transitions in Uganda, and addressing male breadwinner norms in Zambia. Future research should delve deeper into how labour market transitions influence female employment and how negative consequences can be remedied.
Topic:: Women, Employment, Labor Market, and Wages
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Senegal, Zambia, Benin, and Sub-Saharan Africa

683. Trump’s assault on foreign aid: implications for international development cooperation

Author:: Sebastian Haug, Anna Novoselova, and Stephan Klingebiel
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The United States of America has long been a leading force in international development cooperation, both politically and financially. However, the first weeks of the second Trump administration have called the traditional role of US foreign aid fundamentally into question. From a 90-day funding freeze to the withdrawal from United Nations (UN) bodies and the dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), measures taken by Trump and his team are not only having palpable repercussions on a wide range of humanitarian and development programmes, but they also point to more far-reaching implications. Against this backdrop, this paper presents the contours and discusses the global consequences of Trump’s assault on US foreign aid, as of late February 2025. We outline the extant role of the United States as a donor in Section 2 and review the changes announced – and/or implemented – by the current US government in Section 3. Section 4 discusses the implications of US funding cuts for bilateral cooperation, while Section 5 focuses on repercussions on multilateral development work. Section 6 outlines three scenarios on how the ongoing changes in the United States might affect the field of international development. We discuss the possible ramifications of (a) a revamped US approach to foreign aid centring on crude national interests, (b) a US retreat that is at least partially offset by other providers and (c) a US retreat without other providers stepping in. Section 7 concludes by discussing the implications for dealing with the second Trump administration. We outline four recommendations that address stakeholders across the – increasingly outdated – donor–recipient divide: (1) refining development cooperation approaches, (2) strengthening the multilateral development system, (3) promoting Southern self-reliance and (4) fostering alliances beyond a Trump-led US government.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, International Development, Donald Trump, and USAID
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

684. Macroprudential policies and private domestic investment in developing countries: an instrumental variables approach

Author:: Bao-We-Wal Bambe
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the effect of macroprudential policies on private domestic investment using a panel of 87 developing countries from 2000 to 2017. Our instrumental variables strategy exploits the geographic diffusion of macroprudential policies across countries, with the idea that reforms in neighbouring countries can affect the adoption or strengthening of domestic reforms through peer pressure or imitation effects. The findings indicate that the tightening of macro-prudential policies significantly reduces private domestic investment. This effect holds for both instruments targeting borrowers and those targeting financial institutions, and is subject to heterogeneity depending on several economic and institutional factors. The transmission channel analysis highlights that the negative impact of macroprudential policies on investment is primarily driven by a reduction in credit supply and financial inclusion.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Finance, Investment, and Macroprudential Policies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

685. From polarisation to autocratisation: the role of information pollution in Brazil's democratic erosion

Author:: Anita Breuer
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This study explores the complex relationship between information pollution, polarisation, and democracy in Brazil, a country that has recently experienced both democratic erosion and a pivotal democratic “U-turn”. Information pollution – the dissemination of false, misleading or harmful information – has become a global challenge, undermining societal peace and demo-cratic stability. In Brazil, these dynamics have been particularly pronounced, reflecting deep-seated socioeconomic inequalities and the impact of disinformation in an increasingly polarised political landscape. Grounded in a holistic analytical framework, this study moves beyond the narrow conception of countering disinformation as a challenge confined to the digital space. By incorporating socio-economic, media, legislative and political contexts into the analysis, it provides a comprehensive understanding of the factors that facilitate the emergence of information pollution. By doing so, the framework also enables the formulation of tailored policy recommendations that consider the distinct characteristics of Brazil’s context, while offering lessons relevant to other countries facing similar challenges. The analysis of the socioeconomic and social context highlights how in Brazil, persisting poverty and inequalities and the digital divide restrict access to diverse information sources, leaving marginalised groups disproportionately vulnerable to disinformation and hate speech. In this environment, hate speech targeting black women and members of the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer (and others) (LGBTQ+) community has been a prominent driver of polarisation, which exacerbates the discrimination and marginalisation of individuals at the intersection of race, gender and sexual orientation. The characteristics of the Brazilian media landscape and information ecosystem further fuelled these dynamics. Highly concentrated media ownership and declining traditional journalism have undermined information diversity and opinion plurality. At the same time, digital platforms have become fertile ground for the spread of polarising narratives, driven by the rise of politainment and political messaging disguised as religious truth by influential evangelical leaders. Within Brazil’s regulatory and institutional context, outdated legislation on internet governance has left significant gaps in the oversight of digital platforms. The implementation of existing transparency legislation is deficient and fragmented. Political interference and the misuse of secrecy laws have further undermined transparency mechanisms. Against this backdrop, state transparency offerings provide an inadequate counterweight to disinformation circulating on digital platforms. The political context has exacerbated these challenges, with cultural and ideological divides exploited by political actors to erode trust in democratic institutions. Disinformation played a central role during the administration of Jair Bolsonaro who pursued a grievance-based mobilisation strategy, amplifying societal divisions by exploiting narratives around corruption, inequality and moral values. This approach triggered a process of affective polarisation, with religious rhetoric playing a significant role in framing political opponents as existential threats to traditional and conservative values. Across all these contexts, vulnerabilities, such as low digital literacy, concentrated media consumption, and societal cleavages, amplify the impact of information pollution. This study finds that information pollution has fuelled affective polarisation, fostering mistrust, hostility, and violence, which in turn has jeopardised key elements of democratic quality, including respect for counterarguments, electoral integrity, institutional checks and balances, and public accountability and lastly support for democracy itself. The findings of this study point to critical entry points for addressing information pollution. At the national level, strengthening Brazil’s transparency regime emerges as a key priority, particularly by making access to public information more inclusive and enhancing the autonomy of institutions tasked with upholding transparency. The modernisation of Brazil’s internet governance framework is equally important, requiring broad based publication consultations and robust mechanisms for platform accountability. To ensure impartiality, authorities tasked with overseeing internet governance must maintain sufficient independence from the executive branch and should feature a cross-sectoral, multi-stakeholder composition, incorporating voices from civil society, academia, technical experts, and the private sector. At the international level, enhancing cross-border collaboration is paramount. The Global Digital Compact adopted in 2024 offers an important foundation for promoting shared technological solutions and fostering multilateral cooperation. Regional organisations in Latin America, such as the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), also have a critical role to play in harmonising regulations and strengthening digital governance. Brazil’s recent experience illustrates the complex interplay between structural enablers, digital dynamics, and political strategies that drive polarisation and democratic erosion. At the same time, its ability to reverse autocratisation at the ballot box provides valuable lessons for curbing information pollution and fostering democratic resilience worldwide.
Topic:: Polarization, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

686. Hybrid threats: the new horizons for a "Europe of internal security"?

Author:: Jean Mafart
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Even today, most of our fellow citizens are unaware that the European Union is actively involved in the fight against terrorism, money laundering and drug trafficking, in border protection and in the harmonisation of criminal legislation[1]. This is why a European internal security strategy, ProtectEU published by the Commission on April 1st is important : it defines the European Union's work programme for the coming years, within the framework of the guidelines laid down by the European Council. The assessment of the previous internal security strategy (for the period 2020-2025) shows that this kind of programme has real scope: the Commission announced numerous initiatives that were actually completed, even if, as time goes by, the action inevitably deviates from the initial intentions in response to circumstances. Since the successive strategies are work programmes for a given period, none of them really resembles the previous one. On the other hand, the major underlying themes vary relatively little: terrorism, organised crime and external border control were, as it is the case today, key concerns of the ‘founding fathers’ of the ‘area of freedom, security and justice’ (AFSJ). The doubling of the staff of Europol, the agency responsible which supports Member States in the fight against crime, and the tripling of the staff of the European Border Guard, which are part of the Frontex agency, are also the most spectacular proposals of the new strategy, even if they had already been voiced by the President of the Commission at the beginning of her second term. The arrival of a new theme is therefore bound to attract attention: in this case, it is striking to see the space given over to hybrid threats (a whole chapter, eight pages out of the thirty in the document published on 1 April). A sad sign of the times: it is no longer conceivable to develop an internal security policy without addressing, alongside the more ‘traditional’ themes, the growing threat of destabilisation operations of all kinds coming from Russia or elsewhere. The link between the internal and external dimensions of security is obviously nothing new: in France, the White Paper on defence and national security published in 2008 already considered that ‘the distinction between internal and external security is no longer relevant’. Current geopolitical tensions and the development of hybrid threats are blatantly reinforcing this. How can the ‘internal security of Europe’, initially conceived to respond to internal issues - compensating for the effects of free movement between Member States - adapt to take better account of threats from the outside?
Topic:: Security, European Union, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Europe

687. The end of the energy price crisis must not mean the end of the energy transition

Author:: Valérie Plagnol
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: In many respects, Europe has recently experienced a rude awakening, albeit a salutary one. Barely recovered from the Covid pandemic, it has had to contend with the most serious energy supply crisis since the oil shocks of the 1970s, due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent disruption of Russian gas supplies, particularly via the Nord Stream pipelines. After electricity prices rose to extreme levels, their recent decline in Europe is particularly welcome. But this respite is far from enough. On the one hand, electricity prices are still higher than before the crisis and, on the other hand, they remain almost twice as high as those of our main trading partners, weighing on household purchasing power and business competitiveness. Such constraints, combined with rising geostrategic and trade tensions and the need to strengthen our common defence, have led some segments of European public opinion, including some economic actors, to question the efforts undertaken in the energy and climate transition. However, there can be no question of abandoning the path of energy transition, as the current tensions confirm the necessity and legitimacy of this approach. - This is, of course, about our climate future: numerous and consistent studies show that doing nothing rather than taking action will cost our economies and ourselves much more. - Geopolitical and economic tensions are accentuating the convergence between these imperatives and the need to strengthen our sovereignty, through diversification of supply sources and greater control of production cycles on our own soil. - The growing electrification of uses is generating a new industrial revolution – particularly in the mobility and artificial intelligence sectors – creating an economic and ecological dynamic that Europe is in a position to capture. Combining these imperatives therefore means accelerating the transition to energy and decarbonising our consumption. The current crisis has shown us that massive reliance on natural gas cannot be as stable a transition solution as we had hoped. Rising electricity prices have led to an acceleration of renewable energy projects and installations. More Member States support the development of nuclear power, better integrated into the overall mix and included in the European taxonomy. France, which is committed to renewing its facilities, is at the forefront of these efforts. Finally, strengthening and reorganising our electricity networks, including the development of interconnections, is already at the heart of our industrial strategies.
Topic:: Electricity, COVID-19, Energy Crisis, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Europe

688. Slovakia: civil society opposes its leaders

Author:: Radovan Gura and Gilles Rouet
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: For some years now, Slovakia has been going through a period of profound political change. Marked by a complex history influenced by the Pan-Slavic movement and the legacy of the communist period, the Slovak political scene is characterised by growing instability, a division of society and a rise in populist discourse. Successive events have fuelled discontent and protests, which are now directed at the Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Topic:: Civil Society, Elections, Populism, Domestic Politics, and Post-Communism
Political Geography:: Europe and Slovakia

689. When sleepwalkers awake: German plea for a new European security architecture - a German point of view

Author:: Stéphane Beemelmans
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: For three years, a war has been raging on Europe's borders between two geographically connected states – a conflict that originated in Russia's occupation of Crimea and Donbass almost 11 years ago. Since then, every political and military decision-maker in our part of Europe should have realized that there is a (great) power on our continent that is ready at any time to put ‘war as a continuation of politics by other means’ (Clausewitz) into practice. The deterrent mechanism between the former blocs, which had been effective for almost 50 years and thus prevented war, has evidently given way to a ‘laissez-faire’ on the part of the European states, which has allowed Russia to attack and partially occupy Ukraine with complete impunity, using a crude mix of historical and political justifications that violate international law. What should not have happened could not be seen and therefore could not be addressed appropriately. Our and NATO's ‘laissez-faire’ was based on the for malistic argument that no NATO member country had been attacked and on the lack of strategic foresight disguised as ‘hope’, the expression of which under international law was the ‘Minsk Peace Agreement’ of 2015. The hope, namely, that this attack could be localized and thus geographically restricted or ‘frozen’.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

690. European support to the defence industry - Mid-term review of the European Defence Fund

Author:: Nicolas-Jean Brehon
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Poland has made security one of its top priorities during its Presidency of the Council (January-June 2025). Almost a year ago, the Commission presented a European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) aimed at strengthening European industrial capabilities. If implemented, this programme will bolster the European Defence Fund (EDF), launched in 2021 and which has already financed one hundred and sixty-two armaments industry programmes. Cooperation projects are numerous and extensive. The programmes selected by the Commission bring together an average of seventeen entities, and it takes care to appoint coordinating leaders in almost all the Member States. Questions are now beginning to emerge. After three years, it is useful to draw up a mid-term review to inform future choices.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Europe

691. Greenland: a geostrategic challenge for the European Union in the age of Trump 2.0

Author:: André Gattolin
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Donald Trump's return to the White House confirms, after a first term marked by an attempt to buy Greenland, that the Arctic Island is a critical geopolitical issue for the United States - and that it should also be the same for the European Union. The new situation, in which the military threat has become a factor, is forcing the European Union to rethink its relationship with Greenland and, more broadly, with the North in a clearly strategic way. What does Donald Trump really want? Is he serious about annexing Greenland? Is he prepared to do whatever it takes, including military action, to make it happen? Why should the United States want to appropriate this territory? More generally, are we witnessing a change of direction by Washington in its Nordic and transatlantic relations? What does this mean for Europe? Do we have the means to resist at a time when the United States is talking about its possible withdrawal from NATO and threatening the world, and therefore the European Union, with a significant increase in customs duties? The question of the future of this Arctic territory that sits at the crossroads of Europe and America is far from anecdotal. The shock provoked by Donald Trump is all the greater given that the subject has long been neglected by European chancelleries. Even Denmark, on which the island has depended for more than two centuries, has to admit that it had not sufficiently considered the geostrategic importance of Greenland.
Topic:: European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Greenland and Arctic

692. Polish Presidency of the Council - A paradigm shift in Poland's European policy

Author:: Piotr Buras and Michał Matlak
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Poland is holding the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the first half of 2025. After a controversial Hungarian presidency and political turbulence in France and Germany, European public opinion is looking to Poland, where an openly Eurosceptic government was ousted in the 2023 elections. This change has come at a time when the European Union is facing major existential challenges, in particular with the war in Ukraine, which are especially resonant in Poland. The hopes pinned on Poland are as much a reflection of the impression of a leadership vacuum in Europe that Warsaw - who else at the moment? - could fill, as well as the country's growing economic and geopolitical position after two decades of EU membership.
Topic:: Public Opinion, European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

693. Between the Baltic and the Balkans, the new geopolitics of gas

Author:: Gilles Lepesant
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: On December 31, 2024, the gas transit agreement signed in 2019 between the Ukrainian grid operator and Russia expired. As the Ukrainian government had refused to negotiate a renewal of the agreement in advance, gas flows to European markets were suspended. Announced several months ago, Ukraine's opposition to extend its gas transit agreement with Russia (Kyiv is now self-sufficient in gas) marks a new stage in the reshaping of Central Europe's natural gas geography. This process was initiated in the early 1990s and gathered pace with the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia halted gas exports via the Nord Stream pipeline and via Belarus in the summer of 2022, and flows through Ukraine were significantly reduced before ceasing altogether. Since January 1st 2025, only the Turk Stream pipeline supplies European countries with Russian gas by land. Central Europe has been particularly hard hit by the gas crisis that started in 2022. Gas plays an important role in this region, not least because of the need for heating and the importance of the manufacturing sector in the region's economies. Gas production is growing slightly in Hungary, Poland and, above all, Romania. But the volumes extracted make only a modest contribution to the region's energy security. Moreover, several central European countries have for several decades enjoyed transit fee revenues. Finally, most of them are landlocked or have short coastlines. All of these factors make Central Europe a unique region. Added to this is the legacy of the Communist period, when energy policies favoured coal, and for which gas is now a often seen as an alternative. In this particular context, energy flows between the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea are changing. This is reflected not only in a contraction of flows from Russia, but also in an intensification of north-south or south-north flows, and a growing interdependence between the states of the region, as well as with certain member states of the European Union.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Gas, Exports, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Balkans, Central Europe, and Baltic States

694. Halting Genocide in Sudan

Author:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: In January 2025, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide published a report, “History is repeating itself in Darfur in the Worst Possible Way”: Halting Genocide in Sudan (PDF). This report focuses particularly on ethnically targeted mass atrocities in Darfur committed since the outbreak of conflict in Sudan in April 2023. It also assesses future risks, particularly as the rise in identity-based targeting by both the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces increases the risk of further mass atrocities. On January 7, 2025, the United States Department of State determined that genocide is being perpetrated in Darfur by members of the RSF, a powerful paramilitary group, and their allied militias. This determination is a somber acknowledgment of the horrific crimes endured by communities who experienced genocide 20 years ago and have been neglected for too long. This genocide is ongoing. Civilian protection must be an urgent priority for the US government and the international community. This report offers policy options for the US and other governments—acting individually and as part of regional and international bodies—to halt mass atrocities, bolster accountability mechanisms and local documentation efforts, and protect civilians from harm. These actions should include increased pressure on states that provide financial support to the RSF, securing pathways for humanitarian aid, and prioritizing civilian protection, including by supporting locally-led prevention and protection efforts.
Topic:: Genocide, Armed Forces, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

695. Korea’s Strategy for Critical Minerals: Navigating New Trade Rules and Global Challenges

Author:: Cheon-Kee Lee
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Since the establishment of the GATT in 1947 and the WTO multilateral trading system in 1995, trade liberalization has led to an increase in global trade and the internationalization of production through global supply chains. In recent years, however, as non-trade values including national security, labor rights, and environmental protection have become important considerations, supply chains have become an end in themselves rather than a means of pursuing efficiency. Additionally, major trading partners such as the U.S, the EU, and China have sought to regulate global supply chain by leveraging market access to their domestic markets or critical minerals. The proliferation of such unilateral measures has posed significant challenges, as traditional WTO/FTA trade rules have failed to effectively address these new regulatory dynamics. The increasing compliance costs for companies, stemming from emerging supply chain regulations, are exacerbated by the legal constraints and loopholes in existing international trade frameworks, despite previously promised market access in multilateral and bilateral agreements. Against this backdrop, this Brief reviews the current state of disciplines in bilateral and multilateral trade rules and disciplines, with a particular focus on unilateral supply chain regulations. It will explore the critical minerals sector in light of recent sector-specific agreements and arrangements, including the IPEF Supply Chain Agreement, the U.S.-Japan Critical Minerals Agreement or “CMA”, and the EU's Strategic Partnership. While many supply chain issues are emerging in relation to various non-trade values, the critical minerals sector has been the first to see the emergence of more flexible and pragmatic sector-specific agreements and MoUs that depart from the traditional FTA model. This is likely due to the fact that the security of mineral resources is crucial to the competitiveness of domestic industries in many countries. Moreover, the recent trend of resource-owning countries requiring foreign and foreign-owned mining companies to uphold environmental and labor rights during the mineral extraction process has led to the emergence of new ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) obligations. The ability to address these elements in a stand-alone agreements or MoUs specific to critical minerals—rather than within the framework of a traditional FTA—marks a key strength of this approach. The evolution of these agreements, especially in the critical minerals sector, is of particular relevance to Korea. As the country faces increasing reliance on the global supply of critical minerals and is deeply impacted by evolving international regulations, it is crucial for Korea to explore its own strategy for securing access to these resources. This Brief will focus on the development of Korea's critical mineral strategy, while drawing the lessons from international agreements.
Topic:: Economics, World Trade Organization, Multilateralism, Trade, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

696. EU’s Strategic Net-zero Technology Promotion Policies and Global Supply Chains

Author:: Youngook Jang
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This brief examines recent trends in the EU's industrial and trade policies related to net-zero strategic technologies and their supply chains. It then analyzes the impact of these policies on global supply chain reshaping. As a major player in global supply chains and an active participant in the transition to a net-zero economy, the EU has recently been promoting industrial competitiveness through various industrial and trade policies. Quantitative analyses imply that these policies will likely increase intra-EU trade and reduce extra-EU trade. Korea should respond and adapt to changes in the global trade environment by drawing up Korean industrial policies using EU examples as a reference.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Trade Policy, Supply Chains, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: Europe and South Korea

697. Korea’s Trade Policy Priorities with Latin America: Future Directions

Author:: Sungwoo Hong
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Despite Latin America’s potential as a trading partner, Korea’s exports to Latin America have continuously decreased over the past 10 years, while imports from Latin America have been increasing. The fact that Korea’s exports to these countries have decreased since the conclusion of FTAs with Chile, Peru, and Colombia suggests that it is time to identify the cause of Korea’s decline in exports to Latin America and seek opportunities to expand exports. One reason for the decline in Korea’s exports to Latin America is the decline in Korean companies' investment in Latin America. The correlation coefficient between Korea’s investment in Latin America and exports is quite high, indicating that the decline in investment since the mid-2010s has had a direct impact on the decline in exports to Latin America. As a short-term trade policy goal to consider, I propose establishing and activating a channel for cooperation between Korea and Latin America. It is possible to establish new dialogue channels and revive existing ones, centered on countries where consultative bodies such as the Resources Cooperation Committee, Senior Policy Council, and Joint Economic Committee have already been established, making this a more cost-effective approach compared to other initiatives As a task to be pursued from a long-term perspective, I propose preparing for the possibility of economic integration between the United States and Central America. Assuming that the conflict between the United States and China will continue in the future, expanding economic integration between the United States and Central America can be positive for Korea in that it can alleviate some of the uncertainty Mexico currently has as a bridgehead targeting the US export market. However, expanding economic integration between the United States and Central America is not only difficult for Korea to directly intervene in, but also requires economic and diplomatic efforts in parallel, meaning it may be difficult to achieve in the short or medium term, and thus needs to be pursued as a long-term task. Central American countries, excluding Nicaragua, may be countries that currently have a demand for increasing the level of economic integration with the United States, and the United States may also consider expanding economic integration with them.
Topic:: Investment, Exports, Trade Policy, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and Latin America

698. Recent Global Business Cycles: Characteristics and Implications

Author:: Sang-Ha Yoon
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The analysis of economic patterns from late 1999 to 2023 reveals significant changes in how the world's economies connect with each other. Our research shows a clear trend toward more varied economic patterns, with regional and country-specific factors becoming more important than global influences. This shift became particularly noticeable after the COVID-19 pandemic, where we saw global factors having less influence on national economies than before. The study's findings have important implications for economic policy making. Countries need to develop flexible approaches that can adapt to both global and regional economic changes. At the same time, they must strengthen regional economic cooperation while maintaining domestic economic stability. The findings also highlight the importance of building better systems for responding to economic crises, while considering both regional and global factors in economic policy decisions. These changes suggest that the global economy is becoming more complex, with different regions and countries showing more independent movement than before. As this trend continues, the ability to balance global, regional, and domestic economic relationships will become increasingly important for maintaining economic stability and promoting growth.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Economic Growth, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

699. State Enterprises as Enablers of Economic Cooperation in India

Author:: Kyunghoon Kim
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This Brief discusses the role of state enterprises in India's economy, emphasizing their pivotal contribution to the government's development strategy. It also highlights cases where Indian state enterprises have formed cooperative relationships with global companies, as well as foreign and international development agencies. The Brief concludes with implications for the Korean government and businesses.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Economic Cooperation, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

700. No One-Size-Fits-All: Outreach and Counselling for Irregular Migrants

Author:: María Belén Zanzuchi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Tackling irregular migration to Europe has long been high on the EU agenda. The strategies proposed and adopted for addressing this issue have evolved over time, resulting in an increasingly diverse set of tools. These include strengthened border controls, voluntary and forced return efforts, new legal pathways to offer alternatives to irregular movement, and regularization. In recent years, European countries have also added to the toolkit to address irregular migration by conducting outreach and counselling for specific groups of irregular migrants. The reasons include informing them about available return and reintegration support, raising the visibility of pathways out of irregularity (such as regularization options, where they exist), and ensuring all members of a society have access to certain essential services. As interest and investments in this area grow, this MPI Europe issue brief explores the diversity of initiatives, actors, and practices in this field. It draws, among other sources, on interviews with government and nongovernmental stakeholders in eight European countries (Belgium, Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) and on roundtable discussions among public officials, local administrations, civil-society actors, and representatives of nongovernmental organizations.
Topic:: Civil Society, European Union, Investment, Irregular Migration, and Regularization
Political Geography:: Europe

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS