Journal: - CIAO Search Results

501. Between backyards and nakamals: Shifting Australia–Vanuatu relations

Author:: Anna Naupa
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia’s strategic anxiety and narrative emphasis on security “threats” in the Pacific Islands region have increasingly dominated bilateral affairs in the past decade. This has progressively reconfigured its valued development cooperation and risks a neglect of historical and contemporary reciprocal relations, which in turn can undermine diplomatic trust-building. Deeper Pacific literacy — particularly through a whole-of-government Australian investment in strategic empathy — can meaningfully contribute to more enduring and resilient diplomatic relations with a key Australian neighbour: Vanuatu. The anticipated Nakamal Agreement with Vanuatu offers opportunities for Australia to “think outside the box” in its statecraft, with broader lessons for regional relations. Leaning into an inclusive conceptualisation of the Vanuatu nakamal way — through joint crafting of a more comprehensive engagement model — will better enable the two countries to create a transformational economic partnership that responds to Vanuatu’s most pressing climate and development concerns, while alleviating Australia’s strategic anxiety.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Vanuatu

502. The Impacts of Parole Supervision

Author:: Luke Brinkman, Andrew Jordan, and Derek Neal
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: In 2021, Illinois passed the Safety, Accountability, Fairness and Equity-Today Act, commonly known as the SAFE‑T Act. This legislation received significant national attention because it ended cash bail in Illinois and included numerous reforms to the supervision of prisoners upon their release. In Illinois, most exiting prisoners serve a period of mandatory supervised release (MSR), which is similar to parole supervision in other states. The original SAFE‑T Act modified MSR terms for many parolees, and Illinois amended the law on December 6, 2022, creating a natural policy experiment. During the six months preceding this date, the state assigned a large group of released prisoners to one year of supervision. This group contained prisoners sentenced for both serious offenses (Classes 1 and 2) and lesser offenses (Classes 3 and 4). However, starting on January 1, 2023, the state assigned released prisoners in Classes 3 and 4 to six months of MSR.
Topic:: Crime, Law Enforcement, Incarceration, and Parole
Political Geography:: North America, Illinois, and United States of America

503. Immigration Restrictions and Natives’ Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from the 1920s US Quota Acts

Author:: James Feigenbaum, Yi-Ju Hung, Marco Tabellini, and Monia Tomasella
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Immigration policy has emerged as a focal point of political debate in many advanced economies. Proposals to curtail immigration are frequently justified on economic grounds. Some argue that immigrants increase competition in local labor markets, depress wages for native workers, and strain public resources. Research has increasingly sought to evaluate the consequences of immigration restrictions on economic growth, employment, and wages. While these studies have deepened our understanding of the shorter-run effects of immigration policy on labor markets, we know less about its implications for future generations of native-born workers. This question is especially important because immigration restrictions often persist for decades once enacted.
Topic:: Economy, Immigration Policy, Social Mobility, and Quota
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

504. Mainstreamed but sidelined: Global funding for gender equality

Author:: Grace Stanhope
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Basic rights and wellbeing outcomes for women and girls globally are regressing or stalling. Cuts to foreign aid and a growing hostility towards gender equality programs risk eroding hard-won gains and turning the trend into a crisis. Rising international aid for gender equality has disguised a stagnation of targeted funding for core issues such as healthcare, education, physical safety, and legal rights. This funding gap is widest in conflict zones and disaster-affected areas, where women and girls are often the most at risk and the least supported. The most effective solution is to “upstream” gender equality aid directly into international development funding of core sectors, rather than treating it as an add-on. Anchoring this approach with a clear funding commitment would help protect these programs and deliver better outcomes for the world’s most vulnerable women and girls.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Sustainable Development Goals, Gender, Gender Equality, and Gender Mainstreaming
Political Geography:: Global Focus

505. Low Earth Orbit satellites: Closing the Indo-Pacific digital divide

Author:: Hilman Palaon
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Low Earth Orbit satellite technology can help close Indo-Pacific connectivity gaps, but prohibitive costs mean the technology’s value lies in applications that target remote communities, disaster resilience, and high-value niche uses. Supportive regional policies will be crucial to bridging the digital divide. These policies should focus on subsidies, community gateways, and universal service obligations, as well as complementary investments in digital literacy, device access, reliable electricity, and locally relevant content. Governance is key, including to manage the strategic risks posed by competing providers, ensure balanced regulation, utilise regional approaches where possible, address emerging risks, pilot potentially high-impact use cases, and leverage international financial support.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Governance, and Satellites
Political Geography:: Indo-Pacific

506. The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Insights from 180 Years of US Trade Policy

Author:: Tamar den Besten, Diego R. Känzig, Régis Barnichon, and Aayush Singh
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The sharp increase in US tariff rates in 2025 has renewed interest in the macroeconomic effects of tariffs. Yet surprisingly little evidence exists on this topic. Most studies rely on post–World War II data—a period with relatively modest movements in average tariff rates—and focus on narrow outcomes, such as relative price changes, industry-level effects, or bilateral trade flows. Consequently, the aggregate effects of tariffs on output, prices, and trade are less well understood.
Topic:: Economy, Tariffs, Macroeconomics, Trade Policy, and Industry
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

507. Industrial Activity, State Capacity, and Deforestation: Evidence from Brazil

Author:: Daniel Da Mata, Mario Dotta, and Edson R. Severnini
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Most developing countries struggle with limited state capacity, which hinders their ability to enforce laws and provide public goods. This limitation affects many aspects of governance, including environmental regulation, and can lead to increased deforestation and land degradation. However, policies that outsource state functions to market players—when public and private incentives are aligned—may partially address these challenges by harnessing the private sector’s reach and efficiency.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Deforestation, Livestock, and State Capacity
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

508. The Incidence of Tariffs: Rates and Reality

Author:: Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Statutory tariff rates on US imports recently reached levels not seen in more than 100 years. By the end of 2025, the average statutory rate (weighted by the volume of trade subject to each rate) was 26 percent. Imports from 171 countries, accounting for more than 70 percent of all US imports, faced higher tariffs than at the end of 2024.
Topic:: Economy, Tariffs, Manufacturing, Trade, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

509. Closing the Gaps in Environmental Crime: A Risk-Based Approach to Tackling Money Laundering in the Timber Supply Chain

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: Deforestation in the Amazon is at a decisive moment. In Brazil alone, 91% of the deforestation recorded between 2023 and 2024 occurred without authorization. The continuation of this process brings the forest closer to a point of no return, with irreversible impacts on climate regulation, the hydrological cycle, biodiversity, and the socioeconomic stability of the region. Despite the magnitude of the crisis, environmental crime still does not occupy a central position in the agenda to combat organized crime, even though it is a large-scale illicit activity enabled by the commission of related crimes such as corruption, document fraud, false statements, and money laundering. The timber sector clearly illustrates this dynamic. Illegal extraction does not occur outside the productive system, but rather through it. Forest management plans are manipulated, authorizations are granted under conflicts of interest, documents are falsified, and illegally extracted timber is inserted into the formal market as if it were a legitimate product. The concealment of the illicit origin of environmental assets constitutes, in practice, a process of laundering. However, the absence of specific typologies and indicators creates a regulatory gap that allows illicit revenues to be integrated into the formal market and the financial system with a low level of detection. In response to this gap, the Igarapé Institute developed this study to strengthen the anti-money laundering system through the creation of techniques aimed at identifying risks of fraud, corruption, and money laundering in the timber sector. The proposed methodologies include indicators organized into three categories: (i) identification of conflicts of interest between public officials and companies in the timber sector; (ii) detection of risks associated with fraud and corruption in the approval of forest management plans; and (iii) analysis of risks linked to the extraction and processing of illegal timber. To test the applicability of these techniques, the Igarapé Institute conducted a pilot study in the state of Pará, which resulted in the identification of 125 public officials, 204 technical professionals responsible for signing forest management plans, 877 individuals, and 116 entities holding exploitation rights over the area, as well as 341 timber processing units with indications of high risk. The exercise demonstrates that it is possible to adapt the anti-money laundering system to the specificities of environmental crime and expand its capacity for prevention and detection.
Topic:: Corruption, Governance, Supply Chains, Deforestation, Money Laundering, Enforcement, Logging, Environmental Crime, and Forest Management
Political Geography:: South America and Amazon

510. After the compromise: Australia’s COP31 blueprint for the Pacific

Author:: Melanie Pill, Georgia Hammersley, and Alexandre Dayant
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia’s COP31 compromise with Türkiye, which allows Antalya to host this year’s global climate summit, secures Canberra’s control of official negotiations but weakens its influence over the wider summit, where practical decisions are made. The Pacific-hosted pre-COP is a critical opportunity to build political momentum ahead of COP31 by convening selected global leaders and placing Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in a visible leadership role to secure high-profile support for Pacific climate priorities. Australia can still deliver meaningful outcomes for the Pacific by aligning regional priorities with those of other climate-vulnerable countries, exercising ambitious leadership through the President of Negotiations, and redirecting hosting-related resources towards climate action in the region.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Australia, Pacific Islands, Turkey, and Global Focus

511. The ungoverned sky: Drones and the domestic extremist threat

Author:: James Paterson and Lydia Khalil
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Domestic extremist actors are incorporating drone technology into operational capabilities and attack plots, taking inspiration from the battlefield. The number of violent plots utilising drones has increased sharply over the past five years. Domestic counter-drone frameworks are mismatched to the threat. Effective protection requires layered, multi-system approaches across potential civilian targets and critical infrastructure. Easy-to-access technologies, such as 3D printing, open-source design files, additive hardware, and AI-assisted navigation are lowering the barriers to modifying and weaponising drones.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, Weapons, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, and 3D Printing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

512. The global sovereign citizen movement

Author:: Lydia Khalil and Keiran Hardy
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The sovereign citizen movement has spread from the United States to more than 26 countries globally. Covid restrictions and digital networks accelerated its growth and created dangerous intersections with other conspiracy movements. The sovereign citizen movement has grown beyond a nuisance, escalating into a national security challenge for many countries around the world. The transnational threat of the movement requires multilateral intelligence coordination, online interventions to counter influencers, narratives, and networks, and globally informed threat assessments.
Topic:: Intelligence, National Security, Social Media, Conspiracy Theory, Political Extremism, and Sovereign Citizens
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

513. From Narco Cartels to Criminal Networks: The Structural Transformation of Organized Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: atin America and the Caribbean’s major criminal groups can no longer be understood simply as regional drug trafficking organizations moving cocaine through global markets. That image belongs to an earlier phase. Today, several of these organizations exercise territorial authority, generate revenue from both licit and illicit economies, and shape political life from the ground up. Across the region, they are expanding into strategic sectors, exploiting regulatory weaknesses, and transforming new financial technologies into instruments of concealment and control. The criminal landscape of Latin America and the Caribbean has entered a more complex and dangerous phase. Cocaine production has reached record levels, and Mexican, Brazilian, Colombian, and Ecuadorian criminal organizations have become deeply embedded in global logistics networks, including major European ports such as Antwerp, Hamburg, Le Havre, Rotterdam, and Valencia. Their resilience no longer depends on violence alone. It rests on the protective systems they build around themselves, the revenue streams they control, and the local authority they accumulate where the state is predatory, selective, or absent. This is as much a governance problem as it is a security problem. Criminal groups are not simply attacking the state from the outside. In many places, they operate through the everyday machinery of public authority, turning institutional weaknesses into strategic advantages and public office into a source of protection. This constitutes a core element of criminal governance, enabling criminal organizations to absorb law-enforcement pressure, recover from territorial losses, and survive the removal or replacement of their leaders. In this article, we identify six major transformations. First, the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted criminal supply chains in the short term but deepened poverty, weakened state capacity, and expanded informal economies in ways that accelerated criminal expansion once restrictions were lifted. Second, criminal groups diversified their revenue streams across an increasingly wide range of sectors and supply chains. Third, criminal logistics became globalized. Fourth, state responses across the region increasingly favored militarized emergency models capable of reducing visible violence in the short term while leaving criminal finance, corruption, and illicit governance structures largely intact. Fifth, organized crime’s corrosive effect on democratic institutions intensified through the capture of electoral, judicial, municipal, and security institutions. Sixth, a tougher U.S. security posture reshaped the hemisphere through terrorist designations, lethal maritime strikes, coercive diplomacy, deeper operational partnerships, and pressure on governments viewed as insufficiently aligned with Washington’s counter-narcotics and migration-control priorities.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Organized Crime, Cartels, Illicit Financial Flows, Drug Trafficking, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

514. The geopolitics of critical minerals and implications for Brazil and Canada

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: Critical minerals have moved from the margins of industrial policy to the center of geopolitical competition. Cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earths now underpin three strategic imperatives: energy transition, digital infrastructure, and defense readiness. As rivalry between the United States and China intensifies, and as China leverages its dominance in processing, governments are reshaping supply chains through new alliances and targeted policy interventions. Brazil and Canada are central to this emerging mineral order. Both countries combine strong geological endowments with institutional capacity and diplomatic reach. Canada brings diversified extraction, growing midstream ambitions, and a coordinated policy approach reinforced during its 2025 G7 presidency. Brazil brings vast reserves and a more assertive industrial strategy aimed at moving up the value chain and reducing reliance on raw material exports. Yet both face the same structural challenge: transforming resource abundance into lasting economic and geopolitical influence. China’s dominance in processing reflects decades of accumulated technological capability, specialized expertise, and industrial learning—not simply subsidies. Closing this gap requires sustained investment in midstream capacity, particularly in refining, chemical conversion, and skilled labor. This article examines the forces shaping the global minerals landscape, including demand dynamics, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the evolving toolkit of geoeconomic competition. It analyzes how major powers are structuring alliances and how Brazil and Canada are positioning themselves within this shifting architecture—both individually and as potential partners. It concludes by outlining pathways for bilateral and regional cooperation, from building a Canada-Brazil midstream corridor and aligning standards to investing in human capital and strengthening regional infrastructure. The window for action is narrowing: as the institutional framework of mineral security takes shape, countries that move early and strategically will help define the rules of the system rather than adapt to them.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Geopolitics, Lithium, Supply Chains, Rare earth elements (REEs), Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Canada, Brazil, and South America

515. Between Borders and States: Illegal Mining and Mercury Trafficking in the Amazon

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The Amazon is facing a growing set of pressures shaped by the convergence of accelerated environmental degradation, the expansion of illicit economies, and the fragility of state presence. In this context, illegal gold mining and mercury trafficking occupy a central position, both because of the environmental and public health impacts they produce and because of the way they connect the Amazon rainforest to transnational chains of trade, finance, and logistics. The dynamics sustaining this mechanism, however, do not originate in the forest. Mercury, an essential input for gold amalgamation, enters the region through opaque channels, while the extracted gold enters formal circuits of trade, often far from the territories where socio-environmental impacts are concentrated. Although Amazonian borders are often portrayed as obstacles to addressing these illicit activities, a closer analysis offers insights into the governmental actions and institutional limitations that shape the effectiveness and continuity of the Amazonian countries’ responses over time. It is from this perspective that this study is developed. The research examines how mercury trafficking and illegal gold mining are subject to different forms of state intervention — criminal, administrative, regulatory, and territorial — and how these interventions combine, overlap, or become misaligned when illicit dynamics cross national borders. The study is based on two case studies that illustrate, from different perspectives, the challenges of confronting illegal gold mining and mercury trafficking at the Amazonian border regions. The first focuses on the structure and operation of corporate networks involved in the mercury trade. The second examines the institutional architecture centered on the judiciary and state bodies tasked with protecting Indigenous peoples living in voluntary isolation threatened by illegal mining. Finally, the study presents conclusions aimed at strengthening institutional responses to illegal mining and the input trafficking in the Amazon, with emphasis on both coordination among national bodies and regional cooperation.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Governance, Trafficking, Mining, Indigenous, Illicit Financial Flows, Environmental Crime, and Mercury
Political Geography:: South America and Amazon

516. Justice Denied, Silence Maintained: Women's Voices from the Margins of South Africa's Justice System

Author:: Lindokuhle Malambe
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This research amplifies the lived experiences of women survivors of gender-based violence as they navigate South Africa's criminal justice system. Drawing on qualitative research conducted across diverse communities, the report examines the systemic barriers that prevent women from accessing justice, including institutional failures, secondary victimisation, delayed investigations, and inadequate survivor-centred services. ' The findings highlight the gap between progressive legal and policy frameworks and women's everyday experiences of seeking justice. The report concludes with evidence-based recommendations to strengthen accountability, improve survivor-centred responses, and advance a more accessible, responsive, and equitable justice system for all women.
Topic:: Women, Gender Based Violence, Criminal Justice, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

517. Gender Gaps in Academic Careers Evidence from Economics in Argentina

Author:: María Edo, Mariana Marchionni, Maria Florencia Pinto, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of gender disparities in academic economics in Argentina, and one of the few systematic studies on this topic in developing countries. Using newly collected and harmonized data from administrative records, university sources, web scraping, and ad-hoc surveys, we document women’s representation across stages of economics education and academic careers. We identify a leaky pipeline: a small gender gap at the undergraduate level widens in later stages, including research activity, faculty positions, publications, rankings, and leadership roles. Exploring potential drivers—such as academic performance, aspirations, exposure to role models, coauthorship, networking, funding, service—we find that women and men exhibit similar performance and comparable aspirations to pursue academic careers, yet their trajectories diverge. Although descriptive, our results suggest that gender disparities are unlikely to reflect differences in ability or preferences, and instead arise from a complex interaction of structural conditions and individual choices.
Topic:: Economics, Developing World, Inequality, Academia, and Gender
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

518. Labor market impacts of an internship program on people with disabilities

Author:: Inés Berniell, Lucila Berniell, Victoria Castillo, Belén Cañuelo, and Dolores de la Mata
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the impact of an internship program in Argentina (Programa Primer Paso) on the formal employment trajectories of People with Disabilities (PwD). Using administrative data from 2002–2023 and a staggered differencein-differences design, we estimate that program participation persistently increases formal employment and improves employment stability over time. On average, the probability of being formally employed rises by about 8 percentage points within three years after treatment, with the effect growing over time. The program also increases sustained employment—measured as at least six or twelve months of formal work per year—as well as the total number of months in formal jobs. Importantly, about three-quarters of the observed employment gains arise from jobs at firms other than the initial internship host, indicating broader integration into the formal labor market rather than the formalization of pre-existing ties. These results are robust to alternative specifications and pre-trend tests. The effects are larger for individuals residing in the capital city and for those placed in medium- and large-sized firms, while they are smaller for individuals with mental disabilities. No clear differences are found by age or gender. From the perspective of participating firms, we find no evidence of changes in their hiring behavior toward PwD after hosting a PPP intern with a disability. These findings suggest that internship programs can be an effective tool to reduce labor market gaps for people with disabilities in developing countries, with patterns consistent with the alleviation of informational frictions, the raising of expectations about employment prospects, and the acquisition of transferable skills.
Topic:: Employment, Disability, Labor Market, and Internships
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

519. Intergenerational Mobility and Populist Attitudes in Latin America

Author:: Bautista Santamarina, Matias Ciaschi, and Mariana Marchionni
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the relationship between intergenerational educational mobility and populist attitudes in Latin America, a region characterized by low levels of intergenerational mobility and a long-standing presence of populist leadership. In contexts where social origin strongly predicts individual outcomes, perceptions of unfairness may create fertile ground for populist narratives. Using harmonized microdata from 18 waves of the Latinobarómetro survey covering individuals born between 1940 and 2000, we document a robust negative association between intergenerational mobility and populist attitudes across multiple indicators, including anti-democratic attitudes, support for military governments, anti-immigrant sentiments, and institutional distrust. These results hold when using a relative mobility measure that captures pure positional change net of structural trends, and at the cohort level when exploiting standard mobility measures from the literature. Cohort-level estimates further reveal that the effect of persistence is amplified in high-inequality contexts, suggesting that immobility and contemporaneous inequality act as complements in shaping political discontent. Decomposing inequality into opportunity and effort components, we find evidence suggesting that populist attitudes are mostly driven by inequalities of opportunity. These findings suggest that the persistent emergence of populist leadership in Latin America is linked to the region’s stubbornly low intergenerational mobility and unequal access to opportunities.
Topic:: Democracy, Populism, Social Mobility, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:: Latin America

520. Soft-skills Training, Locus of Control, and Labor Market Outcomes of Youth: Evidence from Kenya

Author:: Kibrom A. Abay, María Laura Alzua, Nelima Barasa, Phyllis Mumia Machio, and Martin Paul Jr. Tabe-Ojong
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We evaluate the impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ labor market constraints in technical and vocational education and training (TVET) institutions in Kenya using a clustered randomized controlled trial. We also explore whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control, moderates the impact of soft-skills training. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for the youth. Although we find suggestive evidence that the soft-skills training marginally contributed to preparing the youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes appears negligible. However, the effect of soft-skills training varies across individuals with varying personality traits. Soft-skills training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control, implying important heterogeneity across individuals with varying non-cognitive skills.
Topic:: Youth, Labor Market, and Soft Skills
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

521. Occupational Mobility and Green Transition: A Stylized Estimation of Skill Investment Needs in South Asia

Author:: Andres Ham, Emmanuel Vazquez, Monica Yanez-Pagans, Camilla Knudsen, and Saher Asad
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper estimates the share of green employment in seven South Asian countries using an O*NET-based definition and finds that, on average, 24 percent of jobs in the region are currently green. The paper then assesses the potential for non-green workers to transition into green occupations. Among all non-green workers, 57 percent could transition to green jobs with limited reskilling, 16 percent with moderate upskilling, and 27 percent with full skills reconversion. These results suggest three policy priorities—promoting on-the-job training, strengthening firm-based and public–private training systems, and adopting a dual strategy that invests in reskilling and upskilling today’s workforce while simultaneously advancing forward-looking education reforms that equip future cohorts for new and emerging green occupations.
Topic:: Climate Change, Labor Market, Skills, Green Transition, Green Jobs, and Occupational Mobility
Political Geography:: South Asia

522. Asymmetric Adaptation to Heat and Energy Poverty

Author:: Adriana Camacho, Leonardo Gasparini, Luis Laguinge, Jorge Puig, and Hernan Winkler
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We study the responses of household electricity consumption to temperature changes, focusing on asymmetries between welfare deciles. Our analysis exploits a unique panel dataset for Peru that links household survey microdata with repeated administrative records on energy use and local temperature. Using fixed-effects models, we estimate how electricity consumption varies with temperature, highlighting the unequal capacity of households across income deciles to adapt to climate change. Based on this evidence, we propose and implement a novel measure of adaptive energy poverty, which captures households’ ability to respond to rising ambient temperatures through increased electricity consumption.
Topic:: Electricity, Temperature, and Energy Poverty
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

523. Safeguarding or Sidestepping? The Centre-Right, the Minimum Wage, and Collective Bargaining Autonomy in the German and Italian Low-Wage Sectors

Author:: Joshua Cova and Matteo Marenco
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Opposition to statutory minimum wages by right-of-centre parties has typically been framed around employment externalities. Yet in Germany before the adoption of a statutory minimum wage, and in Italy today, right-of-centre parties have often invoked a different rationale: defending collective bargaining autonomy against state interference. In this paper, we investigate how centre-right parties in both countries have engaged with collective bargaining while each facing a specific scenario: declining coverage in Germany, and weakened representativeness in Italy. Examining recent policy proposals such as linking public procurement to collective bargaining agreements or regulating union representativeness, we find that these measures were largely opposed by the centre-right. A quantitative text analysis of parliamentary debates further reveals a strategic use of collective bargaining discussions by centre-right parties: In Germany, salience peaked before the statutory minimum wage was introduced but fell sharply thereafter, while collective bargaining gained prominence discursively for the Italian centre-right only in conjunction with the minimum wage debate. Complemented by stakeholder interviews and electoral data analysis, our findings suggest that this trend reflects ideological as well as electoral dynamics, as centre-right parties draw on significant support from small business owners in sectors with weak collective bargaining. Appeals to bargaining autonomy thus function less as substantive commitments than as instruments to preserve the status quo in the low-wage sector.
Topic:: Political Parties, Minimum Wage, Collective Bargaining, and Safeguarding
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Italy

524. Data Challenges and Innovations in Measuring Domestic Violence in Latin America and the Caribbean: Traditional Sources and Online Search Patterns

Author:: Inés Berniell, Gabriel Facchini, and Santiago M. Perez-Vincent
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This study examines the challenges of analyzing domestic violence (DV) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and seeks to improve measurement through two main contributions. First, we collect and describe traditional DV data sources (household surveys and administrative records) across 19 countries. The analysis reveals substantial gaps in data availability, with infrequent and outdated survey efforts in most countries. Nevertheless, surveys confirm high DV prevalence, with at least one in five women reporting victimization in all countries examined, and highlight pervasive underreporting that limits the reliability of administrative crime data. Second, we examine the properties of a novel, high-frequency indicator based on online search behavior: the Google Domestic Violence Index. Using administrative data from eight LAC countries, we find that the index is strongly correlated with calls to DV helplines but shows weaker association with police reports or emergency calls. The evidence suggests that the index captures early-stage, information-seeking behavior and may provide a real-time signal of latent victimization not reflected in official statistics. Our findings underscore the potential of digital data to complement traditional sources and to support more timely, responsive approaches to tracking DV.
Topic:: Internet, Data, Domestic Violence, and Google
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

525. Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty

Author:: Cristian Bonavida
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines whether marriage serves as a strategic response to immigration policy uncertainty. We study transitions into marriage among cohabiting binational couples—defined as unions between a U.S. citizen and a noncitizen partner—following the shift in immigration policy expectations during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and the subsequent tightening of enforcement in 2017. Using ACS data from 2008 to 2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we compare marriage transitions among binational couples to those of homogeneous citizen couples. Immigration policy uncertainty increased marriage rates among binational couples by approximately 1.5–1.8 percentage points, or about 8-10 percent relative to pre-treatment levels. Event-study estimates show no differential pre-trends and indicate that the response began in 2016, prior to the formal reinstatement of Secure Communities. The effect is concentrated among likely unauthorized immigrants and individuals from targeted nationalities. The findings suggest that marriage functioned as a form of legal and economic insurance in response to heightened deportation risk.
Topic:: Economics, Marriage, Household, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

526. Status of Environmental Justice in Karamoja and West Nile Sub-Regions in Uganda

Author:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This report presents a comprehensive assessment of the status of environmental justice in Uganda, with a particular focus on the Karamoja and West Nile regions. These two regions, though distinct in ecological and socio-economic characteristics, are united by their position which is at the frontline of environmental change, governance challenges, and livelihood vulnerability. Karamoja is characterized by semi-arid landscapes and pastoral livelihoods, faces intensifying pressures from climate variability, land degradation, and expanding extractive and conservation activities. West Nile, by contrast, represents a complex humanitarian–ecological interface shaped by one of the largest refugee-hosting contexts in Africa. West Nile is where population influxes are placing unprecedented strain on land, forests, and water resources. These two regions provide a critical lens through which to understand how environmental governance systems shape outcomes like equity, inclusion, and sustainability in Uganda.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Sustainability, Ecology, and Environmental Justice
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

527. Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics

Author:: Milagros Onofri, Inés Berniell, Raquel Fernandez, and Azul Menduiña
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research.
Topic:: Demographics, Education, Fertility, and Age
Political Geography:: Latin America

528. Moral and Legitimate? Historical, Legal, and Affective Issues Around Educational Privatization in Germany

Author:: Karen Lillie and Luisa Hideg
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Germany’s education system is in the midst of privatization. Although this trend, which started in the 1980s, ostensibly parallels neoliberal education reforms across Europe and the Anglophone world, Germany’s case is a special one. Privatization in the country is happening within a historical and legal context that favors public schooling; however, families increasingly exercise school choice to select “the best” for their children. The tension between historically and legally informed norms, on the one hand, and affective desires, on the other, is morally problematic for parents navigating between what is generally accepted as good for society and what they believe is good for an individual. At stake in this struggle is whether school choice becomes a “legitimate” part of the German education system, in a Bourdieusian sense. If it does, it risks strengthening social class closure mechanisms and heightening resultant social class anxiety.
Topic:: Education, Privatization, History, Law, Reform, and Class
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

529. A Practical Guide to LinkedIn Advertising Reach Data for Social Science: Methods, Challenges, and Five Applications

Author:: Saila Naomi Stausholm and Javier Garcia-Bernardo
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: LinkedIn data offers a unique way to study how professional groups and organizations underpin economic and political life. This paper shows how LinkedIn’s advertising reach data, which provides anonymized counts of users by job title, skills, employer, and location, can be used to study organizational and professional dynamics relevant to a wide range of issues in political economy and economic sociology. We showcase the potential through five illustrative cases: 1) the revolving doors between Wall Street and US financial regulators; 2) the geography of professionals such as accountants and bankers; 3) the professional composition of interdisciplinary firms such as antitrust consulting firms; 4) recruitment by different industries and specifically big professional services firms in the face of new regulatory demands for sustainability reporting; and 5) the emergence of a profession of cyber security professionals over time. Alongside these examples, we provide a step-by-step guide for implementing the method in practice and discuss how linking professional attributes with geographical or organizational characteristics can provide new answers to various research questions. We hope this paper serves as a helpful practical guide as well as inspiration for new research questions.
Topic:: Data, Advertising, Social Science, Professionals, and LinkedIn
Political Geography:: Global Focus

530. Defending before the International Criminal Court: An Interview with Mylène Dimitri

Author:: Mylène Dmitri, Cailan Cumming, Kate Gibson, and Paul Williams
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: This blog is part of the Defending Justice series, an initiative of the Public International Law and Policy Group (PILPG) to promote an eclectic array of voices within the field of international criminal law. As part of our broader efforts to strengthen institutions of justice, this series seeks to create space for dialogue around the varied perspectives and concerns that shape these institutions. With that aim in mind, we interviewed a series of defense practitioners working in international criminal law and distilled their experiences and insights into a series of first-person blogs, preserving the spirit and voice of those interviews.
Topic:: International Law, Interview, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

531. Why Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine Cannot Be Cured by a Vote: A Legal and Historical Reality Check

Author:: Greta Ramelli, Kateryna Kyrychenko, David Griffiths, Clyde Freeman, Anastasia Zaluckyj, Dmyro Panchenko, and Rahul Ramesh
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: A persistent assumption in some policy debates is that concessions of territories under Russia’s occupation will offer a pathway to ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Trump administration has repeatedly supported this thesis. While European officials have generally been more cautious, the possibility of territorial compromise has nevertheless entered public debate, including in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have, however, distinguished between acknowledging the difficulty of restoring control by force in the near term and legally recognizing Russia’s claims over occupied territory. Yet, this argument rests on a critical assumption that ceding territories would be sufficient to stop Russia’s aggression. This premise is far from settled. Analysts have repeatedly noted that Russia’s war aims extend well beyond Donbas, Crimea, or the mere acquisition of territory. The conduct of the war, characterized by war crimes and crimes against humanity, including systematic attacks on civilian infrastructure, forced deportations, and efforts to erase Ukrainian cultural identity, raises serious doubts about whether any concession, large or small, would meaningfully alter Russia’s strategic objectives. The trajectory of the war suggests the opposite: that Russia’s war is more than just an attempt to gain strategic territories and that ceding some territories is unlikely to bring peace. Even if it is doubtful that territorial concessions would meaningfully alter the course of Russia’s campaign, it is still necessary to examine all potential scenarios that could influence how the war might eventually conclude. Considering these possibilities does not suggest that concessions are advisable or likely to succeed; it just reflects the need to understand the full range of legal, historical, and practical constraints that would shape any hypothetical settlement. Assuming (purely for the sake of analysis) that territorial concessions could form part of a hypothetical negotiation, far more difficult questions immediately arise: how would such concessions be made? What legal mechanisms would be required? What constraints would international law impose? What limits does Ukrainian constitutional law create? And what can be learned from past conflicts in which referenda, territorial claims, or post‑conflict votes were used or proposed? These questions are not abstract. They go to the heart of whether territorial concessions are legally possible and historically realistic, even before one considers whether they are politically desirable. This blog post therefore examines the legal architecture, domestic constitutional constraints, and historical precedents that shape what is and is not possible.
Topic:: International Law, History, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

532. Roundtable Blog: Four Years Since Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion Into Ukraine: What Have We Learned?

Author:: Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: This blogpost is part of the PILPG Lawyering Peace roundtable series. Rather than a traditional co-authored article, it presents a curated set of expert reflections from members of PILPG’s Peace Fellows and Ambassador Circle networks. Marking four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, this roundtable examines how the war has reshaped international law, global security architecture, accountability mechanisms, and our understanding of modern aggression. Anniversaries invite commemoration. This roundtable instead invites assessment. Four years on, the international community possesses insights that were unavailable in the early days of the invasion. The war has tested the resilience of collective defense systems, exposed the limitations and adaptability of international institutions, accelerated transformations in military technology and information warfare, and catalyzed new approaches to sanctions, energy security, and legal accountability. It has also revealed both the extraordinary durability of Ukrainian statehood and the profound human costs of prolonged high-intensity conflict. This collection seeks to move beyond retrospective narrative toward forward-looking analysis. What assumptions proved mistaken? What institutional innovations have emerged? How has the legal framework governing aggression and atrocity crimes evolved under pressure? What lessons should policymakers internalize to deter future wars of aggression? By elevating diverse expert perspectives across disciplines, this roundtable aims to distill the most consequential lessons of the past four years — and to consider how they should inform the future of peacebuilding, deterrence, and the international legal order.
Topic:: Security, International Law, Accountability, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

533. PILPG Roundtable Blog: Creating the Conditions for Peace in 2026 - Expert Perspectives on Ukraine’s Strategic Position and Negotiations

Author:: Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: More than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the debate over Ukraine’s path to a just and durable peace has entered a new phase. Recent developments on the battlefield, renewed diplomatic contacts, and shifts in international support have prompted fresh discussion about Ukraine’s strategic position and the conditions under which negotiations could contribute to a lasting settlement. To continue this conversation, PILPG invited members of its Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group, former senior diplomats, ambassadors, international prosecutors, and leading experts in international law, peace negotiations, and security to share their views on three questions: How should Ukraine’s current strategic position be assessed? When, if at all, should negotiations become a priority? And what should Ukraine’s international partners do now to maximize the prospects for a just and durable peace? While the experts approached these questions from different professional backgrounds, several points of agreement stood out. They broadly agreed that Ukraine’s position is stronger than battlefield maps alone suggest, that negotiations should not come at the expense of continued support, and that lasting peace will require careful preparation long before any final agreement is reached.
Topic:: International Law, Negotiation, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

534. Extraordinary Accession: Why Europe Must Bring Ukraine into the European Union Now

Author:: David M. Crane
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: Europe stands at a geopolitical crossroads. Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has shattered the illusion that the post-Cold War order could be preserved through incrementalism, dialogue, or strategic ambiguity. Moscow is betting quite openly that Europe will hesitate, delay, and ultimately retreat from the historic question of Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. The Kremlin’s strategic calculation is simple: Europe will not bring Ukraine into the EU in the short or medium term, regardless of political declarations or symbolic gestures such as the Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Kyiv in March 2026. This policy paper argues the opposite. Europe must bring Ukraine into the European Union now - not as a conventional accession, not as a “fast track,” but as an extraordinary accession that recognizes the singular nature of Ukraine’s struggle and the existential stakes for Europe itself. Political membership should be granted immediately, with the technical and treaty-based obligations phased in over time. This is not only feasible; it is strategically necessary. Ukraine’s accession would send an unmistakable signal to Russia and the international community: Ukraine is Europe - permanently, irreversibly, and without qualification.
Topic:: International Law, European Union, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

535. PILPG Roundtable Blog Part I: Ukraine’s EU Accession: Perspectives of Enlargement During the War

Author:: Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: This roundtable explores one of the most consequential strategic questions facing Europe today: Ukraine’s accession to the European Union amid an ongoing war of aggression. Building on discussions within the Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG) Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group, this piece brings together expert perspectives on how enlargement policy is being reshaped by geopolitics, security imperatives, and the pursuit of a just and durable peace. Presented under the Lawyering Peace initiative, this roundtable situates EU accession not merely as a technical legal process, but as a defining test of Europe’s political will and strategic identity. As Ukraine continues to defend itself, its European trajectory has become inseparable from broader questions of deterrence, stability, and the future of the European project itself. On 10 April 2026, members of PILPG’s Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group convened to assess the evolving trajectory of Ukraine’s EU accession process. More than a decade after the Maidan protests set Ukraine on its European path, accession now unfolds under radically different conditions: amid full-scale war, shifting transatlantic dynamics, and renewed debates about Europe’s strategic autonomy.
Topic:: International Law, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

536. The Global South and the Russian War on Ukraine: Structural Constraints on Diplomatic Alignment: An assessment of the political, economic, and institutional factors shaping multilateral engagement with Russia's war against Ukraine

Author:: Paul R. Williams
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: Three years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a striking diplomatic gap persists between the breadth of international condemnation and the depth of practical alignment. While 141 states voted in the UN General Assembly to demand Russia's immediate withdrawal in March 2022, the countries that have joined Western-led sanctions regimes, restricted Russian access to their financial systems, or curtailed bilateral trade with Moscow represent a narrower group. That gap is not incidental and it reflects durable structural realities across the Global South that are rooted in economic dependencies, regional security pressures, institutional history, and the architecture of development finance. Understanding those realities is a prerequisite for any realistic assessment of how the conflict's diplomatic landscape might evolve. A related question follows from this analysis: given the structural depth of these constraints, whether Ukraine's diplomatic strategy would be better served by consolidating and sustaining existing Western commitments rather than investing heavily in outreach to states whose non-alignment is unlikely to shift within any operationally relevant timeframe.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Law, Sanctions, Multilateralism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global South

537. Roundtable Blog: Voting Under Duress — Referenda, Aggression, and the Limits of Democratic Consent

Author:: Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: This post is part of the PILPG Lawyering Justice roundtable series. Rather than a traditional co-authored article, it presents a curated set of expert reflections from members of PILPG’s Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group. Drawing on a closed-door discussion held on 6 February 2026, this roundtable examines one of the most legally and politically fraught questions facing Ukraine: whether a national referendum can play a legitimate role in a peace process shaped by aggression, occupation, and mass displacement. Referenda are commonly understood as the highest expression of democratic will. Yet in contexts defined by coercion and force, democratic instruments themselves may be distorted into tools that legitimise unlawful outcomes. This roundtable explores the legal limits of consent under international law, the precedent-setting risks of post-aggression referenda, and the strategic choices Ukraine faces in navigating popular participation without eroding its sovereignty or the international legal order.
Topic:: International Law, Voting, Referendum, Russia-Ukraine War, and Aggression
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

538. Emerging Challenges and Opportu-Nities in Humanitarian Assistance in Mozambique: A Case Study from Cabo Delgados

Author:: Fátima Chimarizeni Papelo
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: This paper aims to analyze the emerging challenges and opportuni-ties derived from the humanitarian assistance actions applied in Cabo Del-gado in the context of violent extremism that has been ravaging the province since 2017. This topic is relevant because the traditional concept of huma-nitarian assistance presupposes support for victims of a disaster caused by nature or man-made, and the province of Cabo Delgado presents a growing demand for humanitarian assistance due to the ongoing prolonged violent conflict. In Cabo Delgado, there are victims of a violent, unconventional, low-intensity conflict. More than 1 million people are in need of humanita-rian assistance, of which more than 50% are women and children (OCHA 2021). Along with terrorism, climate disasters, such as Cyclone Keneth in 2019, and the COVID-19 Pandemic, which began affecting Mozambique in 2020, are exacerbating the state of vulnerability of humanitarian victims. Combined, these events force non-state humanitarian actors to operate in an environment characterized by uncertainty, insecurity, and unpredictability. Nevertheless, these humanitarian actors may operate beyond what is defined by traditional humanitarian principles, which concern saving lives and allevia-ting the suffering of humanitarian victims, including developmental actions that may result in the reduction of state power in the humanitarian space and that lead to the implementation of political action by external forces. If prolonged, this scenario may accentuate the weakening of state power. Given this context, one wonders what challenges and opportunities are derived from the humanitarian support process in Cabo Delgado. This paper seeks to reflect on the emerging challenges and oppor-tunities arising from the humanitarian assistance process in Cabo Delgado. Specifically, it sought to a) define what humanitarian assistance is; b) analyze the emerging challenges for humanitarian actors in Cabo Delgado; and c) analyze the emerging opportunities for humanitarian actors within the pro-cess of humanitarian assistance in the region. We started from the hypothesis that the problem of the humanitarian assistance process in the context of violent extremism creates emerging challenges and opportunities for non--state humanitarian actors that are linked to human security, management, and coordination of humanitarian actions.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, Armed Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgados

539. Situation Analysis of the Chissano Government: Domestic Transitions and Economic Pragmatism in Mozam-Bique (1986–2004)

Author:: Ercilio Neves Brandao Langa
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: This article analyzes the political situation of Mozambique during Chissano’s Government between 1986 and 2005, as well as the internal and external factors that contributed to the fulfillment or unfulfillment of the government’s objectives. Political, economic, and historical events are observed in order to evaluate the Chissano Government. Situation analysis is a plural methodology that allows interpreting events, facts, and causes, as well as describing the behavior of the actors involved, the correlations of force, and the internal and external interests that influence the course of politics. Another aspect that justifies using this tool is the historical time involved – 18 years between the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century – characterized by transformations, transitions, and dis-tinct domestic, regional, and international political-economic changes. The situation analysis proved to be an effective tool to reach a broader and deeper perspective of the Chissano Government and the national and international context in which it developed. This methodology requires historical knowle-dge of the object of study, its context and political dynamics, the organization of local society, its behavior patterns and social values, as well as its politi-cal groups, their objectives, and interests. The text constitutes a subjective perspective, a point of view on the “Chissano era”, a political, economic, and social period in the history of Mozambique. It is an ex-post-facto analysis, as it is written decades after the events have occurred, and although it limits its scope to a short period of time, it nonetheless covers long and complex socio-economic transformations. Despite systemic changes in Mozambican society, the structure of the country’s politics has remained almost the same, led by the party-state.
Topic:: History, Economy, Domestic Politics, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

540. The Evolution of Un Peace Operations from a Human Security Perspective: The Dilemma in the Issue of Western Sahara

Author:: Guilherme Moreira Dias, José Maria Sydow de Barros, and Túlio Pires Barboza
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The question of Western Sahara, “Africa’s last colony”, is quite pecu-liar in the context of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, when compared to other ongoing missions, and it is also quite unique from a geo-political point of view since the international community differs regarding this territory (Barros 2020).In this context, this article seeks to address the following issue: why didn’t the evolution of UN peace operations, which occurred after the expan-sion of the international security agenda and the emergence of the concept of human security, provide any significant change in the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO)? We will consider the hypothesis that, although there is a consensus at the international level on the importance of the concept of human security, there has been no significant change in MINURSO’s mandate, such as the incorporation of new assign-ments, due to Morocco’s close relationship with some permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), namely France and the United States.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Africa and Western Sahara

541. Contemporary Terrorism: A Theoretical Perspective

Author:: Yoslán Silverio González
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Studying the impact of terrorism on international relations is of vital importance due to the implications not only local and regional but also within the international system. The phenomenon of terrorism is not exclusive to a region or a country, it can affect everyone in indirect ways. In this sense, it crosses borders and does not understand nationalities. The most dangerous thing is the treatment given to it in international forums, multilateral orga-nizations, and the media since it is presented as a threat to security, but to legitimize military actions by Western powers or to delegitimize governments “not prone to the West”.This article is based on a conceptual proposal that helps to understand the phenomenon of terrorism from a non-Western perspective, criticizing the positions of the United States in this regard. The main objective is to deepen the debate around the concept of terrorism, its erroneous link to Islam, and to nationalist and/or revolutionary movements. It is also pertinent to see how it has been legally defined by international law, through resolutions, conventions, and protocols of different multilateral organizations, including the African Union (AU).
Topic:: International Relations, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Global South, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

542. Asia’s Growing Global Influence: A Study of India’s Africa Policy

Author:: Hamdy A. Hassan
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The 21st century could become an Asian and African century, which will result in a radical global transformation of the world. Thus, the past decade has witnessed a large Asian presence in Africa, especially, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Not surprisingly that the rise of Asia in global politics has worried the traditional Western powers. Analyzing contemporary Asian approaches to Africa should be performed through their historical contexts, in particular the history of competition and rivalry between Asian rising powers. It is no secret that this point has not been adequately addres-sed in previous studies on African-Asian relations (Iwata 2019). This state of rivalry is reflected in the African policies of major Asian countries. For example, the Sino-Indian conflict and the Sino-Japanese conflict, in addition to the Taiwan issue, have definitely affected these countries’ interactions with Africa. In contrast to European policies towards Africa after the founding of the European Union, there is no consensus framework for Asian international relations. The experience of struggle against colonialism and engagement in the Non-Aligned Movement represented the most prominent components of the mutual relations between Asia and Africa, especially since the Ban-dung Conference in 1955 (Adem 2017). When the Cold War ended, Asian countries began to achieve high and rapid rates of economic development. Hence, the Asian countries that previously received development aid have become among the most important international donors. This means that the concept of “donor powers” has undergone a major change that it is not limited to Western industrialized countries (including Japan). Perhaps all of this requires studying and analyzing Asian-African relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Global South, Donors, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:: Africa and India

543. Monitoring Report | Public consultation in Albania: The illusion of inclusion

Author:: Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:: The Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM) has released a new report: Public Consultation in Albania: The Illusion of Inclusion. This report presents the results of an in-depth monitoring of 50 laws, public policies, and strategic documents consulted by the central government during the years 2022-2023. The assessment covers 10 key government institutions, evaluating their public consultation processes in terms of: Transparency and accessibility of consultation documents; Effectiveness of the public consultation process; Public accountability during this process; Citizen participation in consultations; Ensuring inclusivity and non-discrimination. In addition to the qualitative analysis of public consultation previously conducted by IDM, this assessment for the first time provides statistical data related to this important governance process. The evaluation system applied in this report provides the opportunity to compare institutions’ performance in the consultation of different acts, in relation to the aforementioned principles. Ultimately, the findings highlight a ‘’long distance’’ between transparency and participation in government consultations. The goal of this study is to contribute to evidence-based advocacy for legal reforms and the improvement of institutional practices, so that public consultations fulfill their core function – citizens’ participation and impact in decision-making.
Topic:: Transparency, Inclusion, Monitoring, and Civic Space
Political Geography:: Europe, Balkans, and Albania

544. Military Implications of PLA Aircraft Incursions in Taiwan’s Airspace 2024

Author:: Cheng-kun Ma and K. Tristan Tang
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In 2024, the number of days and sorties involving Chinese military aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line reached a peak, but the total sorties of Chinese aircraft around Taiwan and the number of peak incursion periods were not significantly higher than in 2023. While the number of Chinese military aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s airspace has surged, the operational capacity of the PLA Eastern Theater Command Air Force is likely already at its maximum peacetime readiness level. The sharp increase in Chinese military aircraft incursions targeting Taiwan is not solely aimed at President Ching-te Lai but also reflects changes in the scope and intensity of the PLA’s training and exercises around Taiwan. Unless new airbases are constructed or logistical support capabilities are significantly improved within the PLA Eastern Theater Command, the number of sorties into Taiwan’s airspace is unlikely to increase substantially in 2025.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Air Force, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

545. Dreams Deferred in Xi’s New Year’s Speech

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Xi Jinping’s New Year’s speech hinted at weaknesses in the People’s Republic of China. The speech emphasized the many hardships that people are currently facing at home while acknowledging fears about a turbulent external environment. Xi did not mention “national rejuvenation” and he conceded that the “China dream” was far from being realized. Doubling down on the ideology of struggle, a hard work ethic, and enforcing nationalist sentiment as crucial factors for escaping the current malaise, Xi’s speech suggested a shortage of tangible solutions for the country’s problems.
Topic:: Politics, Ideology, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

546. Untangling the Transatlantic Knot: Germany, France, and the United States

Author:: Gesine Weber and Jacob Ross
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: France’s and Germany’s reactions to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reveal their significantly different relationships with the United States. Their interpretations regarding the European security architecture are almost diametrically opposed. While Berlin concluded that European security must be constructed transatlantically, Paris saw confirmation of its interpretation that Europeans must be able to address security challenges independently of Washington. Donald Trump’s reelection constitutes a challenge for the two countries because both need to fundamentally rethink their respective relationships with the United States and Europe-US relations more generally. The scope of the US withdrawal from European security remains to be seen, but it will be similarly challenging for Paris and Berlin.
Topic:: NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

547. China: From Systemic Rival to Systemic Threat

Author:: Andrew Small and Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: For the United States and Europe, dealing with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now a challenge of such wide-ranging nature that it will cut across almost the entire transatlantic agenda of the incoming Trump administration. From addressing Beijing’s role as the “decisive enabler” for Russia’s war of aggression to rethinking the way that US-EU trade and technology ties need to be organized, China policy no longer occupies a separate silo but conditions every element of the security and economic landscape. Under the Biden administration, Europe and the United States undertook an unprecedented effort not only to coordinate their approaches to the PRC itself, but also to advance on other fronts where the China challenge was the main motivating factor, such as EU-US efforts to negotiate agreements on steel, aluminum, and critical minerals. The two sides’ analysis has grown much closer, and in some areas, this translated into tangible results—whether conveying common red lines to Beijing on the delivery of lethal aid to Moscow and the use of force against Taiwan or tightening controls on advanced semiconductor equipment exports. Overall, however, progress still fell short of the high stakes. Some EU member states treated the Biden administration’s partner-friendly approach as a holiday from difficult strategic choices on China rather than an optimal window in which to make them. EU-level efforts to build more effective approaches on economic security, trade defense, and cyber security were often slow-rolled or undercut by major capitals. There were also areas in which the Biden administration allowed domestic political considerations to undermine efforts to build a common strategic economic approach among US partners—particularly the use of national security tools against US allies, whether the blocking of Nippon’s takeover of US Steel or the initial retention (and suspension rather than lifting) of Section 232 tariffs against the EU. While the two sides are certainly more closely aligned and better coordinated, moving in the right direction is no longer enough. If Europe and the United States are unable to achieve results in several critical areas in the next few years, it will come at a growing cost to their security and economic interests, as well as to the broader transatlantic relationship. Success, on the other hand, would put a new set of foundations under it. Three issues are likely to loom over the agenda for the incoming Trump administration: the threat of the “Second China Shock” to US and European industry; Beijing’s deepening coordination with Russia and other authoritarian states; and intensifying PRC pressure on Taiwan.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

548. Reflections on WTO Reform: Lecture series by Ignacio Garcia Bercero

Author:: Ignacio Garcia Bercero
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This special edition of our Expert Analysis presents four lectures (edited for publication) on World Trade Organization reform delivered by the author at LSE IDEAS during June-November 2022 and concluding in May 2023. The paper ends on a postscript reflecting on the perspectives on the different issues discussed in the lectures following the outcome of the 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO in February-March 2024, as well as the November 2024 re-election of Donald Trump—on the basis of a disruptive trade policy agenda.
Topic:: Reform, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

549. Lift the Sanctions: The Principal Danger in Syria Today is Instability

Author:: Carl Conetta
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: The most critical international security goal regarding Syria today is the country’s stabilization – and that requires immediate and substantial aid and sanction relief. The question on which recognition of the new government should most hinge is whether it can achieve sovereign authority in the country and do so without the type of human rights abuses or cross-border militancy that pose a threat to regional peace. Given the urgency of stabilizing the country, the new government provisionally meets this criteria. Should it change course and pose a threat to regional peace, the international community can adjust policy accordingly. Two outstanding challenges to sovereignty and legitimacy are the presence of foreign troops – Israeli, Turkish, and US – and the status of Kurdish areas. Especially acute is the triangular relationship among Damascus, Ankara, and Syria’s Kurdish community, which is among the issues addressed in this viewpoint. As for foreign troops: 15,000-20,000 currently occupy the country. Affirming Syrian sovereignty entails expeditiously withdrawing all those forces not explicitly invited by the new government. A related concern is the remnants of the Islamic State (ISIL) in Syria, including the 40,000+ cadre, family members, and displaced persons interned in camps run by the Kurdish authorities. Going forward, the task of managing and combating IS remnants on Syrian territory should fall to Damascus, acting together with Kurdish and foreign partners as it sees fit. The threat that IS affiliates and aspirants pose to the United States and the broader international community have been and are most effectively addressed through measure of homeland security and law enforcement. Securing the US homeland does not require the ongoing deployment of US troops in Syria, which would inadvertently undermine the legitimacy of the new government.
Topic:: International Security, Sanctions, Syrian War, and Instability
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

550. Shipment of a Controlled Vacuum Furnace to North Korea via Multiple States: An HS Code Case Study

Author:: David Albright
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: In tracking trade data and trade flows, Harmonized System (HS) codes are routinely used to aid searches for dual-use commodities and to help guide the identification of dual-use items that require a license or greater scrutiny. A recurring concern is shipper falsification of HS codes to evade detection or payment of duties. An illustration of such falsifications is a case we learned about via government sources from around 2022 that involved North Korea and a dual-use vacuum furnace suitable for uranium melting that wound its way from Spain to North Korea, via Mexico, South Africa, and China. Such a furnace is typically controlled under the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) Part 2 list and is banned for export to North Korea under United Security Council resolutions. This type of furnace is a mainstay of a nuclear weapons program, particularly one that uses weapon-grade uranium as the nuclear explosive material, as North Korea is known to do. With North Korea expanding its uranium enrichment program and producing greater quantities of weapon-grade uranium, this new furnace would be especially important.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Trade, and Dual Use Items
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

551. New Information on Shenyang Machine Tool Company’s Illicit Sales to North Korea and Russia

Author:: David Albright and Spencer Faragasso
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: Several years ago, the Institute reported about the relatively large, multinational Chinese company Shenyang Machine Tools Company supplying sophisticated computer numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools, equipped with Western controlled software, to North Korea in violation of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions and a supplier country’s trade control laws that banned re-export of this software. New information details the disingenuous way in which the Chinese government investigated this case, indicating nonetheless inadvertently that North Korea received these machine tools, while also demonstrating China’s utter disregard for enforcing UNSC sanctions or its own or others’ export control laws. This case serves as another of the many cases highlighting China as a long-time irresponsible trading partner that responsible companies should avoid when sensitive dual-use goods are involved, lest they be complicit in outfitting North Korea’s, Iran’s, or Russia’s military programs. Today, responsible suppliers are inadvertently facilitating Russia’s prosecution of an illegal war against Ukraine. Given Shenyang Machine Tools Company’s recent exports of goods to Russia with Harmonized Shipments (HS) codes found on the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Common High Priority List (CHPL), this company should be considered for sanctions.
Topic:: Sanctions, Trade, Illegal Trade, and Shenyang Machine Tool Company
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and North Korea

552. Assad’s Fall Is an Opportunity for a U.S. Win Over China

Author:: Grant Rumley
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Beijing consistently supported the regime’s brutal repressive measures, so cozying up to the rebel-led transition government may be more difficult than it expects. In the months since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023, China has seized on the conflict to criticize not only Israel but by extension the U.S. and its position in the region. For years, Chinese diplomats had been careful to toe a centrist line in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calibrating their language to avoid offending either side too greatly. Yet as the conflict has dragged on the past year, and as the region’s criticisms of the U.S. have risen, Beijing sensed an opportunity to diminish the U.S. standing while boosting its own. Chinese officials have regularly omitted mention of Hamas’s atrocities while blasting Israel and the U.S. for its support. Now, however, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has presented the U.S. with a similar opportunity...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, Bashar al-Assad, 2023 Gaza War, and Transitional Government
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

553. In Syria, America Should Be Ruthlessly Focused on the Islamic State

Author:: Joseph Votel and Elizabeth Dent
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With the U.S. military presence on a potentially short timetable, officials should prioritize policies that ensure the continued security of Islamic State detention facilities, such as brokering local ceasefire agreements and alleviating Turkish concerns. Five years ago, we warned that a snap decision to depart Syria would be a devastating setback and damage American credibility. A few weeks later, amongst a U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion into areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, we argued the United States would need to maintain the ability to fight remnants of the Islamic State and ensure the fighters in detention remain there. Washington ceded much of its negotiating power in the country to Moscow and Ankara, only to reverse course a few months later and keep a small allotment of troops in northeast Syria to prevent a power vacuum and a run on Syrian oil and gas infrastructure. Today, the United States and its Kurdish-led partners face a nearly identical set of challenges, but in a massively changed balance of power in Syria. And despite political nominees’ reassurances that the United States is unlikely to abandon its partners there, Trump himself has been more ambivalent...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islamic State, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

554. PMF Non-Deployment to Save Assad: Sudani’s View Contradicted by Iran

Author:: Hamdi Malik
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Iraqi prime minister portrayed Baghdad's non-intervention in Syria as a sovereign decision, but Iranian leaders gave a different explanation. Iranian and Iraqi narratives surrounding recent events in Syria reveal clear contradictions, particularly regarding the role of Iraqi muqawama (resistance) militias in efforts to preserve Bashar al-Assad’s regime. High-ranking Iranian officials offered accounts that challenged Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s portrayal of events, asserting that external threats rather than Sudani’s leadership ultimately limited the extent of Iraq’s involvement.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

555. Gaza Ceasefire: Implications for Israel, Hamas, and U.S. Policy

Author:: Dennis Ross, Matthew Levitt, and Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Former Israeli and U.S. officials discuss the deal’s timing, provisions, and near-term prospects, outlining the Trump administration’s practical options for advancing peace in Gaza and beyond.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

556. Navigating the Challenges of Environmentalism in an Increasingly Authoritarian Iraq

Author:: Taif Alkhudary
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: There has been a marked increase in environmental activism in Iraq in recent years. This shift has taken place in the context of what has often been presented as a new stability, due to the absence of active armed conflict in the country since 2017. However, as “stabilization” efforts give way to “development”, Iraq is also coming to terms with the slow violence of protracted wars,1 an astronomical and rapid rise in oil production, and the impacts of climate change – most visible in the widespread incidences of pollution and public health crises, as well as in the drying up of ancient rivers and lakes and desertification, which is destroying livelihoods and causing mass migration across the country.2 The rise in interest in the environment has also come in the aftermath of the 2019 Tishreen uprising, to which the government and associated militias have responded with a widespread crackdown on freedom of expression and assembly, making any form of activism increasingly dangerous. This study examines how self-identified environmentalists active in Iraq interact with this complex context and the challenges they face. To navigate the increased authoritarianism of the Iraqi state, this research finds that environmentalists tend to adopt small, carefully framed initiatives that are usually presented as supporting the government in solving some of the environmental issues it faces, as opposed to being overtly adversarial. This approach also means that Iraq’s environmental movements lack autonomy, and that certain issues – particularly those that might harm the business interests or standing of the political elite – remain off-limits. As a result, environmental initiatives in Iraq tend to make shallow interventions that do little to address the root causes of environmental degradation or to mitigate the effects of climate change. These dynamics are compounded by the funding structures of donor organizations, who prefer to award grants to small-scale, time-bound projects the outcomes of which can be easily measured. Environmental actors active in Iraq have also begun to form coalitions with the government, the private sector, and other members of civil society, such as political activists. However, this remains in its infancy and is often limited to a small number of individuals acting alone. Coalition building remains a substantial challenge and is often actively blocked by the government, used by corporations for greenwashing, and sees the efforts of environmental activists and organizations coopted by politicians for their own political and financial ends. The findings of the current study corroborate and extend the work of Wiktor-Mach et al. on Kurdistan, especially their characterization of environmental activism in the region as “a specific type of activism that does not question mainstream policies and practices but intends to push for change within existing systems and that has a cooperative character”.3 However, it is also important to note (as will be discussed in greater detail in this paper) that in Federal Iraq, the uptake of such non-confrontational tactics is the result of the increased crackdown on civil society post-Tishreen, which has raised the stakes and dangers of more adversarial work. In addition, while in Kurdistan episodes of mass contention are relatively rare and often focus on issues such as salaries and service provision, in Federal Iraq there has been at least one episode of mass mobilization in response to environmental issues in recent years in the form of the 2018 water protests in Basra.
Topic:: Environment, Politics, Authoritarianism, and Activism
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

557. Online Narratives and Manipulations: Tunisian and Regional Panorama

Author:: Arab Reform Initiative
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In the wake of the presidential elections of October 2024, the first since the coup d'état in July 2021, Tunisia has seen a resurgence of suspiciously sponsored political content, both pro- and anti-regime, on online social media networks. These included advertisements denouncing the refusal of the president of the electoral body, Farouk Bouasker, to reinstate certain candidates. We also saw “locked” profiles with Egyptian-sounding names reacting with likes or "laugh" emojis to publications on the Facebook page of the Presidency of the Republic of Tunisia. With the proliferation of anti-Saied pages garnering thousands of likes in the space of a few days, pro-regime influencers have multiplied their videos to denounce the spread of these pages and content, calling their audiences to witness the truth of the plot hatched by dark forces, which is the mainstay of the new regime's narrative. It is hard to overlook the importance of Facebook in Tunisia. It remains the most widely used network1 and continues to be a major platform for political life.2 While it has long been the site of disinformation campaigns3 in Tunisia, in recent years the issue has taken on a whole new dimension: the sector has gone from being a local, cottage industry to a veritable industry run by specialized companies operating on an international scale. This industrialization of disinformation goes hand in hand with a phenomenon of opinion manipulation, taking the form of troll profiles dictating the political agenda, or fake profiles creating a false sense of popularity for certain ideas. Both disinformation and manipulation raise questions about the future of democracy, in Tunisia and globally, in a context where for many, these networks continue to represent a faithful reflection of reality. This paper seeks to provide an overview of the dynamics of disinformation from the Tunisian digital space, exploring the different narratives conveyed, forms of manipulation, and the role of social media platforms in their amplification. The paper also shows that certain disinformation narratives circulate between different countries in the region. The aim is to broaden reflection on these forms of manipulation while proposing a regional research and action agenda that can help reduce the impact of these activities, known in the Arab world by the general name of "electronic flies".4
Topic:: Elections, Media, Misinformation, and Narrative
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

558. Strengthening Peace and Security in West Africa: A Conversation with Anthony Antem

Author:: Denis Foretia
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: As regional and global challenges related to peace and security continue to evolve, collaboration and knowledge-sharing remain critical to fostering sustainable solutions. The ReCAP Final Regional Conference, taking place in Dakar, Senegal, from February 10-11 2025, brings together experts, practitioners, and researchers from across West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin to reflect on lessons learned in conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and the fight against violent extremism. In this insightful conversation, Anthony Antem (AA), Head of the Conflict Prevention Unit at the Nkafu Policy Institute, discusses the peace and security landscape in West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin. He highlights Nkafu’s contributions to the ReCAP project, shares expectations for the conference, and reflects on the importance of regional collaboration in fostering sustainable peace. The discussion is led by Ayukmba Nkonghonyor (AN), Senior Communications Manager at the Denis and Lenora Foretia Foundation.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Peace, Interview, Countering Violent Extremism, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

559. Virtual Briefing Series | Trump and the Middle East: A new beginning or business as usual?

Author:: Kenneth Pollack and Brian Katulis
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: President-elect Donald Trump’s second term coincides with radical changes in the Middle East. Trump has promised lasting peace in the region, but what does his vision for peace look like? This on-the-record briefing featured Dr. Kenneth Pollack, Vice President for Policy at the Middle East Institute (MEI), in his first event since joining MEI. Dr. Pollack twice served on the National Security Council and began his career as a military analyst at the CIA. The briefing also featured Brian Katulis, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy at MEI. Katulis’ career has also included time at the National Security Council as well as the US Departments of State and Defense. Our experts discussed the new administration’s policy toward the Middle East and its main players, the Trump team’s role in securing a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and the potential for the agreement to endure, what to expect from Trump 2.0 vis-à-vis Iran, as well as the prospects for Trump to expand the Abraham Accords.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East

560. Virtual Briefing Series | Gaza’s Future: Its Neighbors and Trump Weigh In

Author:: Eyal Hulata and Mirette Mabrouk
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: President Donald Trump has apparently been pushing Egypt and Jordan to absorb the displaced Gazan population amid Arab opposition to his proposal. Trump also vowed to discuss the issue with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his upcoming visit to Washington, DC. How realistic is this idea? And what’s at stake for both Palestinians and the security architecture of the broader region? This on-the-record briefing will feature Eyal Hulata, former head of Israel’s National Security Council (NSC). Hulata is also Senior International Fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The briefing will also feature Mirette Mabrouk, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Our experts will discuss Trump’s leverage regarding aid, the Palestinian reaction, Amman’s and Cairo’s political considerations, potential regional security implications, and how the fate of Gazan refugees may affect the longer-term resilience of Israel’s peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt.
Topic:: Displacement, Ethnic Cleansing, Donald Trump, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Egypt, and Jordan

561. Barbara A. Leaf on US Leadership and Engagement in the Middle East

Author:: Brian Katulis and Barbara A. Leaf
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Middle East Focus Presents: ’Taking the Edge Off the Middle East’ with Brian Katulis. A series of casual conversations with leading policy professionals on the most important happenings in the Middle East today - hosted by MEI’s Senior Fellow Brian Katulis. Barbara A. Leaf is a seasoned diplomat and expert on the Middle East, having served as the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and held key positions in US embassies across the region. In this episode, Barbara joins Brian to discuss the array of “black swan” events currently unfolding in the Middle East, and how the second Trump administration may respond to these challenges. They discuss the broader implications of these developments for US foreign policy, national security, and regional stability.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Leadership, Engagement, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

562. Costly Incrementalism: U.S. PKK Policy and Relations with Türkiye

Author:: Richard Outzen
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: U.S. policy towards the PKK, a designated Foreign Terror Organization, has varied significantly over four decades, reflecting a clear periodization based on pragmatic policy interests and the interplay of U.S. actions and Turkish responses. Washington has over time supported Turkish counter-PKK actions without direct involvement; actively supported Turkish counter-PKK efforts; tolerated or tacitly supported PKK activities; and directly instrumentalized and supported the PKK in Syria and regionally. Washington’s evolving stance toward the PKK coincided with the rise of Al Qaeda (AQ) and its offshoot, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as the focus of U.S. Middle East policy. The evolution reflected an incremental approach that subordinated U.S.-Turkish relations and other regional problems to the campaign against AQ/IS. Bilateral cooperation suffered as incrementalism, low trust, and transactionalism came to characterize the relationship. This paper examines the history, current dynamics, and possible future trajectory of U.S. PKK policy as a problem in U.S. Turkish bilateral relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

563. The Alliance in the Storm: Geopolitical Representation of the United States in the Turkish Parliament during Détente

Author:: Ayşe Ömür Atmaca
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article analyzes how the geopolitical representation of the United States in Turkish political discourse changed during the 1960s and 1970s in the context of deep crises between the two countries, such as the Cyprus question, the opium issue, and the US arms embargo on Türkiye. Within the framework of critical geopolitical theory, it uses the concept of “geopolitical representation.” It examines the changes in the geopolitical representation of the United States in Turkish political life through practical geopolitics. To this end, it evaluates the debates, speeches, and correspondence made by the representatives of the ruling and opposition parties and members of the government in the Turkish Grand National Assembly between 1964 and 1979, within the context of the crises in Turkish-American relations, particularly within the foreign policy framework. It is argued that while the alliance between Türkiye and the United States and Türkiye’s membership in NATO were seen as important symbols of Türkiye’s sovereignty and enjoyed unwavering support in the 1950s, tensions with the US, Türkiye’s “strategic partner,” in the 1960s and 1970s led to notable shifts in the Turkish parliament’s narrative. As a pioneer of anti-NATO and anti-US rhetoric, the Workers’ Party of Türkiye (TİP) played a prominent role in shaping parliamentary discussions.
Topic:: History, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Arms Embargo, and Detente
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, Cyprus, and United States of America

564. Challenging Friends: Türkiye-U.S. Relations

Author:: Lenore G. Martin
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article analyzes the underlying wellsprings for the major strains that disrupt the U.S. - Türkiye relationship. These strains arise from the U.S. support of the PYD/YPG/YPJ in Northern Syria as boots on the ground against ISIL; Türkiye’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system; Türkiye’s energy imports from Russia and Iran; the U.S. refusal to extradite Fetullah Gülen; and Washington’s complaints about the AKP government’s anti-democratic tendencies. This article analyzes why and how some of these issues have evoked strong ire and distrust on both sides and others much less so by employing a paradigm based on five integrated variables: Türkiye’s military and economic capabilities; the availability of its natural resources, particularly energy; as well as threats to the legitimacy of the AKP regime and to the society’s ethnic and religious cohesion. Utilizing the paradigm, the article proposes measures that will increase the opportunities to build a firmer partnership between the U.S. and Türkiye.
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, YPG, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

565. A Multi-Dimensional Evaluation of Turkish Public Opinion towards the United States

Author:: Efe Tokdemir, Melike Metintaş, and Seçkin Köstem
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Türkiye - United States relations have a multifaceted character and have spanned a long period, witnessing ups and downs throughout their historical trajectory. Türkiye’s relations with and foreign policy towards the US have been closely monitored by the public, and diverse perspectives towards the US have emerged within Turkish public opinion over time. This paper investigates the various factors that affect Turkish public opinion towards the US. Previous studies have generally examined public opinion through the demand side, exploring what features of the public predict their behavior towards other countries. In this research, we examine what exactly it is about the US that the public likes or dislikes. The research question of this article is: What are the determinants of the variation in individuals’ foreign policy attitudes towards the US in Türkiye? By answering this question through survey data conducted in 2021, we aim to present the economic, security-related, and political reasons behind the Turkish public’s positive and negative attitudes toward the US. The findings demonstrate that individuals are influenced by various dimensions pertaining to the US and its relations with Türkiye. The respondents’ demographic characteristics and political and foreign policy attitudes have resulted in disparate opinions regarding these multiple dimensions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Attitudes
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

566. Where is the Anchor? Explaining the Endurance of the American-Turkish Partnership, 1927-2024

Author:: Onur Erpul and Kemal Kirisçi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Once considered a model partnership, the American-Turkish relationship now elicits ambivalence among scholars and policymakers, calling into question the fundamental interests and assumptions that once undergirded the relationship. Critics attribute the negative trends in the relationship to geostrategic and value-based incompatibilities, but relatively few have examined both factors longitudinally across the entire relationship. This paper does not aim to provide a grand theory of American-Turkish relations. Instead, its goal is to develop a framework illustrating the vital role that strategic, ideational, and domestic political factors have played in shaping macro-level outcomes in the partnership’s cohesion at various junctures. Overall, our paper identifies the positive role of foreign policy bureaucratic elites on both sides acting as an “invisible hand” providing an anchor for the relationship even in the absence of other commonalities. Yet, we also observe the weakening of this hand in recent times as both countries become domestically transformed.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Alliance, and Elites
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

567. The Deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish Foreign Policy: Why Societal Ties Are an Anchor in Bilateral Relations

Author:: Andrew O'Donohue
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This paper challenges two prevailing narratives about U.S.-Turkey relations: first, that international and individual-level factors are responsible for volatility in the relationship and second, that bilateral relations are uniformly bleak. In contrast to these perspectives, this paper proposes a domestic and institutional explanation for the rising volatility of U.S.-Turkey relations and conceptualizes societal ties as an anchor in the bilateral relationship. This paper advances two inter-related arguments. First, I argue that a key driver of volatility in U.S.-Turkey relations since 2016 is the deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish foreign policymaking. In the United States, the root cause of deinstitutionalization is intensifying polarization over foreign policy, fueled by the rise of populism. In Turkey, by contrast, foreign policy has deinstitutionalized through personalization: the steady concentration of decision-making power in the hands of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Second, against this backdrop of deinstitutionalization, I show that societal ties between the United States and Turkey provide a uniquely stable and enduring area of bilateral cooperation. I provide evidence for this argument in two key domains: 1) civil society and media and 2) higher education. These societal linkages, I argue, are often resilient precisely because they are disconnected from domestic politics and foreign policy. These societal ties should thus be understood not as agents that can reshape bilateral relations but as anchors that prevent the two nations from drifting apart.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Bilateral Relations, Media, Higher Education, Bureaucracy, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

568. Turkey and the US in the Middle East: A Case for Alliance Change

Author:: Meliha Benli Altunisik
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Turkey-US relations in the Middle East have evolved significantly in recent years. Initially based on shared threat perceptions and strategic outlooks during the Cold War, the alignment became characterized by divergences on some issues after the Gulf War in 1991. Their relationship in the Middle East has even become hostile in recent years. Turkey’s increased regional aspirations and evolving threat perceptions in the Middle East, framed within an ontological security narrative, have strained bilateral ties. This shift is compounded by divergent worldviews influenced by domestic political changes in both countries. Despite these challenges, the alliance persists within NATO, albeit with complexities arising from the interplay of external pressures and internal dynamics. This article explores these dynamics using a Neoclassical Realist framework to explain how Ankara’s evolving threat perceptions and ontological security concerns have reshaped Turkey-US relations in the Middle East amid changing global and regional contexts.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Alliance, Neoclassical Realism, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

569. What Does It Mean for Agencies to Be Effective in a Changing Development Landscape?

Author:: Rachael Calleja, Sara Casadevall Bellés, and Beata Cichocka
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: For official bilateral development agencies, the realities of providing effective development cooperation are increasingly complex, as competing demands and changing international and domestic contexts are raising fundamental questions around what it means to be an effective agency. This paper explores the concept of agency effectiveness to demonstrate why agencies – and their leadership – should consider how their structures and processes interact with the changing landscape as part of their efforts to remain relevant and resilient. To do so, we consider how the current challenges facing agencies – including the need to respond to climate change, global instability, and changing domestic political environments – affect why agencies act, what they do, and how they do it. We then explore dominant understandings of agency effectiveness, which provide a lens for thinking about what it may mean for agencies to be effective in the years ahead. Overall, we suggest that the challenges facing development agencies in the changing landscape raise key issues for agencies to consider, particularly around what they prioritise, how they are structured, and the capabilities or ways of working needed to respond to complex demands. While there is unlikely to be a single approach for agencies looking to adapt to changing contexts, considering the implications of new – and future – pressures for the work of development agencies will be a necessary first step towards supporting their resilience and relevance in the years ahead.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

570. The Future of Official Development Assistance: Incremental Improvements or Radical Reform?

Author:: Masood Ahmed, Rachael Calleja, and Pierre Jacquet
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Over the last decade, donor country governments have faced new and additional demands for financing international challenges, including providing global public goods (GPGs) and addressing historically high numbers of refugees and humanitarian crises. They have partly done so by re-allocating their official development assistance (ODA) away from its original aim: to support poverty reduction and growth in developing countries. This has led to questions about the integrity and credibility of ODA. These questions are only likely to grow more pertinent in the coming decade because the pressures on ODA—and on public finances more broadly—are here to stay. ODA budgets are being cut in a number of traditional donor countries and what remains is increasingly being deployed to meet emerging needs beyond traditional development and to reflect a more national security perspective on development cooperation. The time is right, therefore, to ask whether the concept and accounting for ODA need to be modified to ensure that the needy and vulnerable it was designed to serve continue to be protected in the face of fiscal constraints and changing geopolitical circumstances. This report, a compendium on the future of ODA, aims to provide fresh thinking and inspire the action needed for ODA to remain relevant and effective. It brings together reflections and proposals from leading experts and practitioners, including the under-secretary-general and executive director of UNOPS to a former DAC chair, to inform policymakers. In this executive summary, we will introduce the key arguments from the compendium contributors. The contributions are organised into four key areas of discussion that reflect the main themes raised in this compendium: the rationale for ODA reform, the political and institutional realities shaping reform, using ODA for climate and leveraging private finance, and forward-looking proposals for reimagining ODA’s role and purpose.
Topic:: Development, Finance, Humanitarian Crisis, Donors, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

571. Aligning International Banking Regulation with the SDGs

Author:: Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Basel III—the international standard for banking regulation—has strengthened global financial stability but has also led to unintended consequences that may hinder progress toward key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This paper examines how Basel III’s regulatory framework may restrict bank lending to SMEs (impacting SDG 10) and constrain infrastructure finance (impacting SDG 8). Addressing these challenges requires refining risk assessment methodologies while preserving Basel III’s core objective: accurate risk evaluation. For SMEs, tailoring risk weights using local credit registry data can better reflect economic conditions in emerging markets. For infrastructure, recognizing it as a distinct asset class and leveraging credit risk mitigation tools could improve financing. Greater engagement from multilateral institutions, particularly the World Bank, is essential to advancing these solutions while maintaining financial stability.
Topic:: Regulation, Financial Stability, Banking, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

572. Planned Relocation of Climate-Vulnerable Communities: Preparing Multilateral Development Banks

Author:: Steven Goldfinch and Samuel Huckstep
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Planned relocation of highly climate-vulnerable communities is becoming increasingly necessary as climate shocks become more frequent and intense. It is also becoming more feasible as modelling of future scenarios improves and adaptation limits become clearer. Despite this, many governments are underprepared for planning and implementing planned relocation projects. In the absence of an intergovernmentally agreed framework or set of principles on planned relocation, development finance, and specifically climate finance, is not well positioned to respond to this emerging demand from countries. This is heightened by a widespread absence of coherent domestic policies, and by institutional gaps in international assistance. Multilateral development banks, in particular, could be well-placed to fill this gap. They have extensive experience in undertaking relocation projects, including in contexts of climate adaptation. Multilateral development banks will increasingly field borrower country demand for both technical and financial assistance. They are, however, not yet prepared to meet this demand, nor are countries adequately equipped to make applications for support. This paper outlines emerging public policy regarding planned relocation, draws from existing standards on development-forced displacement and resettlement, and explores entry points for development financiers in providing technical assistance and finance. The paper proposes recommendations to multilateral development banks and the global climate funds on engaging in this emerging area.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Refugees, Displacement, Resettlement, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

573. Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: What happens with the war in Ukraine matters beyond its borders, as events there will shape the larger standoff between Russia and the West. The U.S. and European powers can manage the risks of a changing security order with a mix of diplomacy and deterrence.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

574. Finding a Way Out of Festering Conflict in India’s Manipur

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Manipur, a state in north-eastern India, has been beset with intercommunal strife since May 2023. The central government has now taken a bold step to quell the violence. It should keep acting urgently to avert a protracted crisis.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Violence, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Manipur

575. Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Criminal gangs have tightened their grip on much of Port-au-Prince, with the multinational security mission making little headway and transitional authorities mired in internal disputes. The UN Security Council should quickly decide how to respond to Haiti’s request for further assistance in restoring public safety.
Topic:: Security, UN Security Council, Organized Crime, Gangs, and Public Safety
Political Geography:: Caribbean and Haiti

576. Current Dynamics in Syria and the Way Forward

Author:: Khogir Wirya
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Recent events in Syria represent a turning point in the history of the Middle East, where internal dynamics are intertwined with regional and international ones. Syria is not just a theater for local conflicts, but has become an arena for competition between major powers, which directly affects the nature of possible solutions. Within this complex landscape, the Kurdish issue stands out as one of the most sensitive and urgent priorities, with its reciprocal impact on the other components of the Syrian conflict and the country’s future.
Topic:: Political stability, Syrian War, and Kurds
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

577. The Unraveling of Iran’s Regional Strategy

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Hezbollah’s decline, Syria’s collapse and Iran’s strategic failures have reshaped the region. No new threats can be allowed to emerge
Topic:: Hezbollah, Proxy Groups, Regional Politics, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

578. Translating Trump’s Disruptive Diplomacy into a New Reality in Gaza

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s statements regarding the future of Gaza – which include the eviction of its population, American governance, the creation of a “Middle Eastern Riviera,” and an ultimatum demanding the release of all hostages – highlights two key issues on which Trump’s positions appear self-contradictory. The call for the release of all hostages (and hence perhaps an end to the war) seems at odds with the administration’s firmly held view that Hamas must no longer be the ruling power in Gaza. At the same time, the call for Palestinians to leave Gaza contradicts the traditional commitment to America’s Arab friends (and clients). The stability of the regimes in Egypt and Jordan, if pushed to take the Gazans and punished for their refusal, could be endangered – despite King Abdullah’s efforts to mollify Trump during his visit to Washington. The future of their peace treaties with Israel would also be threatened. The Saudis too have responded abruptly, reiterating their support for Palestinian demands. Consequently, the region has been thrust into a state of crisis.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, 2023 Gaza War, and Hostages
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

579. Turkey’s Vision Transforms Post-Assad Syria

Author:: Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Ankara aims to establish lasting influence through military expansion, strategic infrastructure projects, and economic agreements, including maritime treaties. Through its assertive Neo-Ottomanist policies Ankara aims become the primary architect of Syria’s future while countering rival powers like Iran and Russia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Bashar al-Assad, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

580. Christian Nationalism Across All 50 States: Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: In 2024, PRRI released a groundbreaking national survey that provided for the first time the ability to estimate support for Christian nationalism in all 50 states. Building on that work throughout 2024, PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults as part of the PRRI American Values Atlas to continue monitoring the spread of support for Christian nationalism and the factors driving such views.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Survey, Partisanship, and Christian Nationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

581. LGBTQ Rights Across All 50 States: Key Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: In 2024, PRRI interviewed over 22,000 adults as part of the PRRI American Values Atlas to provide a detailed analysis of the demographic, political, and religious characteristics of LGBTQ Americans. The report also examines public attitudes on LGBTQ rights across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, focusing on support for nondiscrimination protections, opposition to religiously based service refusals, and support for same-sex marriage. Additionally, new survey questions explore views on transgender-related policies, including restrictions on gender-affirming care for minors and ID laws requiring birth-assigned sex.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Domestic Politics, LGBT+, and Survey
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

582. Practical Guidance for Integrating Climate into WPS National Action Plans

Author:: Christina Vetter and Jessica Smith
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: In this practical guidance note, the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security explores the capacity for National Action Plans on Women, Peace and Security (WPS NAPs) to be effective tools for national-level implementation of the WPS Agenda that is responsive to climate-related security risks. WPS NAPs have become the primary tool for national-level efforts to implement the WPS Agenda. To remain relevant and effective, NAPs must be responsive to the ever-changing security landscape and emerging threats to peace and security, like climate change. While the share of NAPs that mention climate change has slowly increased, many include just one cursory reference to climate change in the background section that does not comprehensively address the impacts of climate-related security risks across all four pillars of WPS or include specific actions or commitments related to climate in the NAP’s implementation framework. This report presents actionable policy recommendations for WPS NAPs to more meaningfully address climate change and related security risks throughout their design, drafting, and implementation. The report, authored by Christina Vetter and Dr. Jessica Smith, was made possible with support from the Embassy of Denmark in Washington, D.C.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

583. Advancing Gender, Climate, and Security in the UN Security Council: A Blueprint for Action

Author:: Jess Keller
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: In this policy brief, the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security presents recommendations for advancing gender, climate, and security in the UN Security Council and opportunities for Member States and other relevant stakeholders to drive progress on these interconnected challenges. Despite growing recognition of how climate change multiplies risk and poses a threat to international peace and security, efforts to make climate change a standing item on the Security Council’s agenda have failed. Climate change disproportionately impacts women and threatens their security, yet frameworks like the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda have been slow to integrate climate considerations into thematic resolutions and National Action Plans (NAPs) on WPS. The international community must rapidly scale-up efforts to bridge these policy gaps and holistically address challenges at the nexus of gender, climate, and security. This policy brief explores best practices and offers specific recommendations for the Security Council, Member States, and international actors to integrate gender-responsive climate considerations into global peace and security efforts. The report, authored by Jess Keller, was made possible with support from the Embassy of Denmark in Washington, D.C.
Topic:: Climate Change, Women, Peace, UN Security Council, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

584. Factsheet: Alice Weidel

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Alice Weidel is the co-chairwoman of the Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD), a far-right political party in Germany and the first far-right nationalist party to enter the German parliament since World War II. Under the leadership of Weidel, the party has become the second strongest force following the national elections in February 2025. Weidel has a long history of anti-Muslim statements and support for discriminatory policies targeting Muslims. She argues that Islam is incompatible with the German constitution and European values, and is also connected to several anti-Muslim actors.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Far Right, Alternative for Germany (AfD), and Alice Weidel
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

585. Factsheet: Tomio Okamura

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Tomio Okamura is a far-right Czech politician who founded the anti-elitist and anti-Muslim party, Freedom and Direct Democracy (Svoboda a přímá demokracie, SPD). He has made comments that promote anti-Muslim tropes and demonize Muslims and actively advocates for the Czech Republic to exit from the European Union. Following the 2024 European Parliament elections, Okamura joined the right-wing group, Europe of Sovereign Nations, which includes several political parties that support discriminatory policies targeting Muslims.
Topic:: Discrimination, Islamophobia, Far Right, Political Parties, and Tomio Okamura
Political Geography:: Europe and Czech Republic

586. Factsheet: Jordan Bardella

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Jordan Bardella is the party chairman of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National) and also the leader of Patriots for Europe (PfE) for the legislative period of 2024 – 2029. In 2024, he ran for the office of the French Prime Minister. Bardella wants to “curb immigration” and warns “against Islamization.”
Topic:: Immigration, Islamophobia, Political Parties, National Rally (Rassemblement National), and Jordan Bardella
Political Geography:: Europe and France

587. Factsheet: Elon Musk

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Elon Musk is a billionaire entrepreneur and the CEO or top executive of multiple high-profile companies, including X (formerly Twitter), Tesla and SpaceX. He has a documented history of amplifying anti-Muslim tropes, supporting individuals and organizations that promote Islamophobia, and making statements that minimize or dismiss concerns about anti-Muslim racism. His actions and influence have contributed to the normalization of Islamophobic rhetoric in public discourse. In 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump appointed Musk to lead the newly-created Department of Government Efficiency.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Billionaires, and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

588. Factsheet: Tom Trento

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Tom Trento is an American conservative activist who has a history of making anti-Muslim statements, including promoting a narrative that constructs Islam as a major threat to America. He is the founder and executive director of The United West, described by the Southern Poverty Law Center as an organization “stoking anti-Muslim hate for over a decade.”
Topic:: Conservatism, Islamophobia, Activism, Right-Wing Politics, and Tom Trento
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

589. Factsheet: Pete Hegseth

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Pete Hegseth is a former Fox News political commentator, author, and former Army National Guard officer who served in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He has tattoos that are associated with white nationalism and has a history of making Islamophobic statements. Hegseth has also been accused of sexual assault and has had several incidences of alleged sexist behavior. In 2025, Hegseth was confirmed as the next Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Military, Pete Hegseth, and White Nationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

590. Factsheet: Randy Fine

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Randy Fine is an American Republican politician and currently serves as a Senator for the Florida state government. Before joining politics, he served as a gambling industry executive. Fine has been described as an “unhinged bigot,” “controversial,” “divisive,” and “abrasive.” He has a history of making anti-Muslim, anti-Palestinian, and racist comments, and has threatened two Muslim women members of Congress. In 2024, Fine announced he would be running for the US Congress and was endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Topic:: Politics, Islamophobia, Republican Party, and Randy Fine
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

591. Factsheet: Mario Kunasek

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: IMPACT: Mario Kunasek is a member of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and is the current Governor of Styria. From December 2017 to May 2019, he was the Austrian Defense Minister under a coalition government of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and his own FPÖ. Kunasek has a long history of tying Muslims to terrorism, fearmongering about “radical Islam” and “Islamism,” and supporting anti-Muslim policies.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), and Mario Kunasek
Political Geography:: Europe and Austria

592. AI Governance and Geopolitical Challenges: What’s Next after Italy’s G7 Presidency?

Author:: Federica Marconi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Profound technological developments have marked recent years, coupled with increasing geopolitical instability and economic fragmentation driven by rising tensions between major powers. Emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), have been at the core of global competition due to their potential for enhancing productivity and fostering innovation. The technological race has started to extend also to the definition of global AI governance frameworks, with the United States, the EU and China pursuing divergent regulatory approaches and striving to influence countries, especially in the Global South, that are looking at the existing models for their national regulatory systems. Against this backdrop, international fora such as the G7 are called upon to play a key role in fostering dialogue on how to reconcile these divergent perspectives and shape global governance for AI.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Governance, G20, G7, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Italy and Global Focus

593. The US TikTok Ban, the RedNote Moment and China

Author:: Aurelio Insisa
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 23 April 2024, the US Senate passed a bill forcing the Chinese company ByteDance to choose between divesting from its prized social platform TikTok, one of the dominant apps among Americans aged 18-29,[1] or accepting its ban on US soil. Following ByteDance’s refusal to divest, the US Supreme Court upheld the ban on 17 January 2025. The ban on TikTok rested on national security grounds. TikTok is technically a limited liability corporation registered in Delaware and with headquarters in Singapore and Los Angeles. Yet, its parent company ByteDance, while incorporated in the Cayman Islands, is based in Beijing and subject to a domestic legal framework legally requiring it to “provide assistance” to the Chinese government, including, crucially, giving up the data of TikTok users.[2] Further highlighting the limited autonomy of the company vis-à-vis Chinese authorities, “cells” of the Chinese Communist Party have been embedded within the structures of the company since 2017.[3] In short, ByteDance cannot guarantee that the personal data of its users could be kept at arm’s length from Beijing. While the Senate’s bill enjoyed bipartisan support, then President-elect Donald J. Trump publicly stated that he would not enforce the ban. Throughout the 2024 electoral campaign, Trump had announced – in contrast with most of the Republican Party members of Congress – his opposition to the bill, acknowledging how the platform had been a relevant tool for re-election.[4] On 19 January, Trump announced that he would consider imposing a 90-day delay of the ban and search for a joint-venture between ByteDance and a US company.[5] Two days later, he suggested the possibility that either Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla, owner of X, and Administrator of the Department of Government Efficiency in the new administration), or Larry Ellison (chairman of Oracle) would buy the social media platform.[6]
Topic:: Social Media, Digital Policy, and TikTok
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

594. Trump First, America Second

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In his inaugural address to a nation half-enthusiastic and half-stunned still by the most extraordinary political comeback in US history, Donald Trump portrayed himself as the saviour of the nation, chosen by God Himself to finally turn America First from slogan to reality and truly ‘make America great again’.[1] The mixture of politics, ideology and megalomaniac eschatology is especially interesting because Trump has tied the fate of the nation to his personal fortunes like no other president before him. As he puts it, the realisation of America First is inextricably linked to his personal power.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Ideology, Far Right, Donald Trump, and Nativism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

595. A Tough Opponent for Trump: Inflation

Author:: Matteo Bursi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: According to several pre-election polls, the economy was perceived by many US voters as the key topic in deciding whether to vote Democratic or Republican in the 2024 presidential elections.[1] During Joe Biden’s administration, the US GDP grew steadily and unemployment reached very low levels. Nevertheless, for the first time since 2004, the Democratic Party lost the presidency, the popular vote, the House of Representatives and the Senate. This seemingly paradoxical situation, according to some commentators, finds an explanation in the issue of inflation.[2] From this perspective, a significant number of Americans reportedly voted for Donald Trump due to the sharp price increases experienced during the past four years, blaming the outgoing Democratic administration for failing to sufficiently protect the purchasing power of US citizens and businesses. During and after the election campaign, the tycoon has claimed that he can curb inflation, emphasising his plan to intensify the exploitation of domestic energy resources. This proposal – covered by one of the many executive orders signed by Trump upon taking office – could help contain price increases but is unlikely to be a definitive solution. Likewise, its effectiveness could be largely offset by inflationary pressures arising from other policies that the Republican politician has promised to implement.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Economic Policy, Inflation, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

596. The New Syria and the Regional Balance of Power

Author:: Amjed Rasheed
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on 8 December 2024 and the subsequent rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now leading the Syrian interim government in the country, have dramatically shaped the regional balance of power. Remarkably, the HTS-led interim government has been making some serious attempts to consolidate its control, and boost legitimacy, but also rebuild Syria after 14 years of civil war and a half-a-century of Assad dynasty rule. In its pursuit to achieve these ends, the interim government has launched diplomatic efforts toward regional and international powerhouses. Everybody, including Russia, is currently welcome to visit Damascus. Yet there is also failure so far to open up the transition to others, which could generate grievances and lead to disruptive regional interference. While the success of such a policy remains to be gauged, the HTS approach to accommodate regional contradiction is worth explaining.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Gulf Nations

597. The Mattei Plan One Year On

Author:: Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 28-29 January 2024, the Italian Senate hosted the Italy-Africa Summit, bringing together 21 heads of state and government from African countries, along with other representatives of African, European and global organisations. The African representatives were gathered by the announcement that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni would publicly present the Mattei Plan, a project with which the Italian government wants to redesign relations with the continent based on “equal-to-equal” collaboration. A year later, it is possible to take a first stock of announcements, projects and weaknesses that have emerged so far.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Public-Private Partnership, Collaboration, and Mattei Plan
Political Geography:: Africa, Italy, and North America

598. The European Screening Mechanism and Its Implications for Chinese FDI

Author:: Emanuele Ballestracci
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The European Commission has recently proposed a revision of the EU foreign direct investment (FDI) screening mechanism, originally established in 2020. The aim is to further strengthen the EU’s economic security within the framework of its “de-risking” policy, which aims to manage risks coming from the economic and technological engagement with China.[1] The new proposal aims to address major shortcomings in the current screening mechanism, expanding its scope to greenfield investments and European outward FDI. However, this could conflict with the EU’s goal of encouraging Chinese greenfield investment and joint ventures, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, and Economic Security
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

599. Italy’s Foreign Policy in the ‘Super-election Year’ 2024

Author:: Leo Goretti and Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: This document provides an English summary of the 2024 edition of IAI’s annual report on Italian foreign policy titled: “L’Italia nell’anno delle grandi elezioni”, developed with the support of the Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo. The 2024 edition of the report, edited by Ferdinando Nelli Feroci and Leo Goretti, features the contributions of a group of IAI researchers coordinated by the Institute’s Italian Foreign Policy programme. The report covers all the core areas of Italian foreign policy, beginning with the relations with the European Union and European allies and those with the US at the dawn of Donald Trump’s second term. Specific attention is paid to the two major crises in the closest neighbourhood of the country, analysing Italy’s commitment to supporting Ukraine and its position vis-à-vis the Israel-Gaza conflict. An in-depth focus is devoted to the government’s pivot to Africa under the umbrella of the so-called “Mattei Plan”, as well as the relations with the People’s Republic of China and the Indo-Pacific region at large. Structural policies are then addressed, from the defence and aerospace policy to the government’s approach to the energy and climate crises to migration policy. Finally, some considerations are made on the 2024 Italian G7 Presidency and the overall Italian involvement in multilateral fora.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Donald Trump, and Mattei Plan
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

600. Trump’s Call with Putin Raises Great Concerns, Few Hopes

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: US President Donald Trump’s phone call with Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin, especially when read in combination with Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth’s re-definition of US Europe policy, casts a long shadow. There are good reasons to be more concerned than hopeful about the peace deal that seems to be taking shape in the minds of the US Administration. At the same time, there are elements suggesting a less pessimistic assessment of the looming negotiations. Trump’s call with Putin has made a big splash but has not yet pierced Ukraine’s armour.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS