Journal: - CIAO Search Results

58501. Post-totalitarian Legacies, Civil Society, and Democracy in Post-Communist Poland, 1989-1993

Author:: Grzegorz Ekiert and Jan Kubik
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
Abstract:: The paper argues that a robust and assertive civil society has emerged in post-communist Poland during the first few years following the fall of state socialism. Civil society is defined as a specific social space and a set of specific social organizations. The most important factors shaping the character of this renewed civil society are the patterns of its institutionalization after 1989, the predominance of organizations inherited from the old regime, and the marginality of anti-systemic groups. The institutional patterns are shaped by the sectoral composition of the new civil society, the relationships among its various organizations, and by these organizations' links to such collective actors/institutions as political parties and state agencies. These patterns influence the quality of political participation and democratic performance.
Topic:: Democratization and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

58502. Political Economy in Security Studies After the Cold War

Author:: Jonathan Kirshner
Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
Abstract:: In contemporary International Relations theory, there exists a sharp distinction between international political economy and security studies. This is largely a false distinction, however, a product of peculiar circumstances associated with the cold war, and one which is becoming increasingly anachronistic in the post-cold war era. In order to understand international relations in this era, a re-integration of the discipline is necessary.
Topic:: Security, Cold War, Globalization, and Political Economy

58503. Open Regionalism: Lessons from Latin America for East Asia

Author:: Clark Winton Reynolds
Publication Date:: 08-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The process of regional integration is part of the reshaping of the international economic order at the end of the 20th century. Much if it is impelled by raw market forces, or what one may term 'silent integration.' In this process the increasingly liberalized movement of goods and services, factors of production (capital, technology, and labor through migration and as embodied in trade in goods and services), and tastes offers new prospects and challenges. There are opportunities for major increases in income and wealth for the most intrepid, skilled, mobile, and aggressive participants in the process. There are threats of lost income, power, prestige, values, and institutions for those left behind. There is a need to go behind the impulse of market forces, taking advantage of their dynamic but finding ways to manage interdependence so as to best reconcile differences among social groups, institutions, and values to ensure that the process of liberalized exchange produces gains that are equitable, stable, and sustainable.
Topic:: Economics, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Israel, East Asia, South America, and Latin America

58504. Liberals, Radicals, and Women's Citizenship in Chile, 1872-1930

Author:: Erika Maza Valenzuela
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper analyzes women's organizations in the anticlerical-and middle- to upper-class-segment of Chilean society from the late nineteenth century to 1930. It focuses on their leaders' positions regarding women's rights, especially the suffrage. The feminist organizations within the anticlerical segment developed later than the Catholic ones and they had less contact with women in the popular sectors. These organizations had varying degrees of anticlericalism. Some of their members were free thinkers, a few were Protestant, and many of them were Catholics who were critical of the clergy's influence in society and politics. This paper shows that, during the period studied here, the anticlerical leaders, both men and women, were opposed to granting women full suffrage rights. They argued that, before voting, women should be given their civil rights and access to secular education under state auspices. However, even after the Civil Code had been partially modified and the number of women with secular secondary education had become roughly equal to that of men in the mid 1920s, anticlerical leaders still only supported the vote for women in municipal elections. By enfranchising women only for local elections, anticlerical leaders-Liberals and Radicals-sought to 'educate' women politically while preventing them from tipping the balance of forces benefiting the Conservative Party in legislative and presidential elections. Catholic-Conservatives had been more inclusive of women in education, social life, and politics since the mid-nineteenth century, and for this reason they had a greater capacity to appeal for women's votes.
Topic:: Gender Issues and Government
Political Geography:: Latin America

58505. APEC beyond Economics: The Politics of APEC

Author:: Brian L. Job and Frank Langdon
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper deals with the history, formation, and objectives of APEC. It describes the tensions between the Anglo-Saxon and the East Asian APEC members and the clashes of interests between the large and small and developed and less developed nations, which show how precarious the formation of APEC was. Within the short term APEC does not seem destined to become an overarching regional, political, security, and economic institution. Indeed, certain forces within the region, such as increased arms acquisitions in some states, friction arising over trade disputes, protectionism, and investment flows, and tension between China and Taiwan, could hinder the objectives of the organization. It remains possible that the very process of finding common ground through APEC may contribute more to fostering community and to ensuring security in the region than the proposals actually agreed upon by all member nations.
Topic:: Economics and International Organization
Political Geography:: China and Europe

58506. An ASEAN Perspective on APEC

Author:: Yoji Akashi
Publication Date:: 08-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper presents the history of APEC in terms of the different goals and fears of the participants and their perceptions of each others' agendas. The author contrasts the Western approach, as exemplified by the US push to institutionalize APEC and introduce binding, formal agreements, with the 'Asian way,' which emphasizes consensus, consultation, and flexibility. By reaching a better understanding of why various key players acted as they did in the past, the author seeks to provide a guide to what should and should not be expected regarding the breadth, specificity, and enforcement mechanisms of future regionwide trade agreements in the Pacific Rim. Ministers of trade and foreign affairs from twelve nations of the Pacific Rim gathered in Canberra in November 1989 to discuss trade liberalization and closer regional cooperation in such specific areas as investment, technology transfer, and manpower training and to plan a new organization that they hoped would shape the future of the world's most dynamic economic region, embracing 1.9 billion people whose combined economies accounted for 24% of world output.
Topic:: Security and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: East Asia and Southeast Asia

58507. Forever in the Shadow of Churchill?: Britain and the Memory of World War Two at the End of the Twentieth Century

Author:: Nile Gardiner
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Security Studies at Yale University
Abstract:: This paper examines recent debates in Britain surrounding the memory of the Second World War. Part one is an examination of the controversy sparked by the publication in 1993 of John Charmley's Churchill: The End of Glory, and Alan Clark's article in The Times, “A Reputation Ripe for Revision?”
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

58508. Global Trends 2010

Publication Date:: 12-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: In fall 1996, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held a series of conferences at National Defense University to identify key global trends and their impact on major regions and countries of the globe. The exercise was designed to help describe and assess major features of the political world as they will appear in the year 2010.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and South America

58509. Report on Applying Military and Security Assets

Author:: Robert Chamberlain, Alexandra Cousteau, and Nathan Ruff
Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: With the end of the Cold War, the United States military and intelligence communities have been searching for new enemies and new roles. The demise of the Soviet Union presented an opportunity to revisit traditional conceptions of security and consider new missions such as heightened counter-terrorist activities and protection of US firms against economic espionage. In this project, special attention has been given to the importance of environmental change. The exploration of linkages between environmental change and security has developed into a complex debate focused on two fundamental and interrelated questions: Is environmental change a "traditional" security threat? In any case, what role is best played by the military and intelligence communities?
Topic:: Security and Environment
Political Geography:: United States

58510. A Treaty on Global Climate Change: Problems and Prospects

Author:: Richard N. Cooper
Publication Date:: 12-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: International treaties in pursuit of common endeavors can be classified into two categories: those that set mutually agreed national objectives and leave each signatory to pursue them in their own way; and those that define mutually agreed actions. The proposed treaty on global climate change falls into the first category with respect to greenhouse gas emissions by the rich countries. Stabilization of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases requires eventual engagement of developing countries. The proposed treaty, based on historical emission levels, does not provide a foundation acceptable to them. Indeed, there is unlikely to be any generally acceptable principle for allocating emission rights, potentially worth trillions of dollars, among rich and poor countries. This probable impossibility suggests a successful attack on greenhouse gas emissions, necessarily international in scope, must be through mutually agreed actions, such as a nationally-collected emissions tax, rather than through national emission targets.
Topic:: Environment and International Cooperation

58511. Conflict in Time and Space

Author:: Richard. Tucker and Nathaniel. Beck
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Scholars in international relations (IR) are increasingly using time-series cross-section data to analyze models with a binary dependent variable (BTSCS models). IR scholars generally employ a simple logit/probit to analyze such data. This procedure is inappropriate if the data exhibit temporal or spatial dependence. First, we discuss two estimation methods for modelling temporal dependence in BTSCS data: one promising based on exact modelling of the underlying temporal process which determines the latent, continuous, dependent variable; The second, and easier to implement, depends on the formal equivalence of BTSCS and discrete duration data. Because the logit estimates a discrete hazard in a duration context, this method adds a smoothed time term to the logit estimation. Second, we discuss spatial or cross-sectional issues, including robust standard errors and the modelling of effects. While it is not possible to use fixed effects in binary dependent variable panel models, such a strategy is feasible for IR BTSCS models. While not providing a model of spatial dependence, Huber's robust standard errors may well provide more accurate indications of parameter variability if the unit observations are intra-related. We apply these recommended techniques to reanalyses of the relationship between (1) democracy, interdependence and peace (Oneal, Oneal, Maoz and Russett); and (2) security and the termination of interstate rivalry (Bennett). The techniques appear to perform well statistically. Substantively, while democratic dyads do appear to be more peaceful, trade relations, as measured by Oneal, et al., do not decrease the likelihood of particpation in militarized disputes, Bennett's principal finding regarding security and rivalry termination is confirmed; his finding on common external threats, however, is not; his results on the influence of issue salience are even more robust.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations

58512. The Origins of Hungary's 1989 Electoral Law

Author:: John W. Schiemann and Kenneth Benoit
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Theories which explain the origins of institutions as the product of struggles for distributive advantage provide only a general framework with no conceptualization of the bargaining process and few applications to empirical cases. We address both problems and extend the distributive theory of institutional origins by drawing on a unique set of data to examine the creation of the Hungarian electoral law of 1989. Arguing that outcomes are shaped by four mechanisms arising from bargaining - time preferences, the credibility of threats and promises, mimicked fairness, and symmetrical division - we develop observable implications of these mechanisms and test them empirically by analyzing the bargaining which produced the multiple rules of Hungary's complex electoral system. Not only does the Hungarian case confirm the bargaining mechanism theory of institutional origins, but the theory also explains many curious features of the Hungarian electoral institutions, including its surprising combination of extraordinary complexity and unusual stability.
Topic:: Democratization and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

58513. 100 Companies Receiving The Largest Dollar Volume Of Prime Contract Awards—Fiscal Year 1996

Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: This report presents summary data on the 100 companies, and their subsidiaries, receiving the largest dollar volume of Department of Defense (DoD) prime contract awards during fiscal year (FY) 1996. Table 1 lists the 100 companies in alphabetical order and gives their associated rank. Table 2, identifies the parent companies in rank order, with their subsidiaries, and gives the total net value of awards for both the parent company and its subsidiaries. In many cases, the parent company receives no awards itself, but appears on the list because of its subsidiaries. Table 2 also shows what percentage of the total awards each company's awards represent, as well as the cumulative percentage represented by all companies. Table 3, lists the top 100 companies DoD-wide in rank order and breaks the totals into three categories of procurement: Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RDT); Other Services and Construction; and Supplies and Equipment. Table 4, lists the top 50 companies for each of the Reporting Components in rank order, and by category of procurement.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Economics
Political Geography:: United States

58514. Assistance Trends: Department of Defense Assistance History

Publication Date:: 12-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Economics
Political Geography:: United States

58515. Department of Defense Summary of Procurement Awards (Format Sum)

Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Economics
Political Geography:: United States

58516. Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1992

Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The data in this volume cover the operations of establishments of U.S. affiliates of foreign companies in 1992. A U.S. affiliate is a U.S. business enterprise that is owned 10 percent or more, directly or indirectly, by a foreign person. The volume is divided into two parts. The first covers all industries and presents data on the number, employment, payroll, and shipments or sales of the establishments of U.S. affiliates (hereinafter referred to as “foreign-owned establishments”); it includes data by detailed industry for nonmanufacturing and totals for manufacturing as a whole. The second part presents these data items by detailed industry within manufacturing as well as additional items for manufacturing establishments, including value added, total compensation of employees, employee benefits, hourly wage rates of production workers, and expenditures for new plant and equipment. In addition to data by industry, both parts present data by State and by country of owner. 2 The data for this volume were obtained from the Census Bureau's 1992 Economic Censuses and Standard Statistical Establishment List (SSEL). 3 They are the result of a project that links Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) enterprise, or company, data on foreign direct investment in the United States with Bureau of the Census establishment data for all U.S. businesses. 4 The project was authorized by the Foreign Direct Investment and International Financial Data Improvements Act of 1990. This volume updates data for foreign-owned manufacturing and nonmanufacturing establishments published in Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1987 and data for foreign-owned manufacturing establishments for 1988–91 published in Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for Manufacturing, in separate volumes for each year (see “Data Availability”). To aid comparisons of the data in this publication with those in the publications for earlier years, tables A and B provide cross-references between the table numbers used in this publication and those used in the publications for 1987–91. Analyses of the data from the link are available in three SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS articles: “Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1987,” in the October 1992 issue of the SURVEY, gives an overview of the 1987 data and an analysis of the attributes of industries with substantial foreign direct investment activity; “Characteristics of Foreign-Owned U.S. Manufacturing Establishments,” (http://raven/ARTICLES/INTERNAT/FDINVEST/1994/0194iid.pdf) in the January 1994 SURVEY, presents a profile of foreign-owned manufacturing establishments using the 1990 data; and “Differences in Foreign-Owned U.S. Manufacturing Establishments by Country of Owner,” (http://raven/ARTICLES/INTERNAT/FDINVEST/1996/0396iid.pdf) in the March 1996 SURVEY, uses the 1991 data to examine whether industry-mix and operating characteristics of foreign-owned U.S. manufacturing establishments vary by country of owner. In addition, an article that will analyze the 1992 data from a regional perspective is planned. The establishment data from the link project complement BEA's enterprise data for U.S. affiliates. BEA's enterprise data are needed for analyzing the overall significance of, and trends in, direct investment and for compiling the U.S. international transactions accounts, the international investment position of the United States, and the U.S. national income and product accounts. The data on positions and transactions between U.S. affiliates and their foreign parents used in compiling the national and international accounts exist only at the enterprise level. Analyses of some topics, such as profits and taxes, are meaningful only at that level. Furthermore, balance sheets and income statements containing the critical, nonduplicative financial and operating data needed for examining these topics exist only at the enterprise level. The establishment data facilitate analyses of the activities and importance of foreign-owned U.S. companies in specific, detailed industries. Each establishment of an enterprise can be classified separately in the establishment data, while BEA's enterprise data classify the entire enterprise, however diversified, in one industry. Furthermore, the level of industry classification can be much more detailed for individual establishments than is appropriate for consolidated enterprises, whose operations may span many narrowly defined industries. As a result, foreign-owned establishments can be classified into over 800 industries, while BEA's foreign-owned enterprises can be classified into only 135 industries. The tables in each part of this volume are organized into three groups. The first group gives an overview of the data by industry, country, and State. The second group presents detailed industry tables for individual States. The third group presents detailed industry tables for selected major investor countries. Some of the tables in each part show totals for key items of all U.S. establishments and the share of the all-U.S. totals accounted for by foreign-owned establishments.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

58517. U.S. Multinational Companies: Operations in 1995

Author:: Raymond J. Jr. Mataloni
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The operations of nonbank U.S. multinational companies (MNC's)grew more rapidly in 1995 than they had grown, on average, since 1982—the year in which this annual series began. According to preliminary estimates from BEA's annual survey of U.S. direct investment abroad for 1995, worldwide gross product of U.S. MNC's (U.S. parents and majority-owned foreign affiliates combined) grew 6 percent, compared with an average annual increase of 4 percent in 1982–94; employment increased 1 percent, compared with negligible growth; and capital expenditures increased 8 percent, compared with a 2-percent increase (table 1).
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

58518. The International Investment Position of the United States in 1996

Author:: Russel B. Scholl
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The net international investment position of the United States at yearend 1996 was -$870.5 billion with direct investment valued at the current cost of tangible assets, and it was -$831.3 billion with direct investment valued at the current stock-market value of owners' equity (table A, chart 1). For both measures, the value of foreign assets in the United States continued to exceed the value of U.S. assets abroad. However, for the direct investment component of the position valued on either basis, U.S. assets abroad continue to exceed foreign assets in the United States.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

58519. Modern U.S. Civil-Military Relations: Wielding the Terrible Swift Sword

Author:: David E. Johnson
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: On November 30, 1995, Secretary of Defense William J. Perry testified before the House International Relations and National Security committees on the commitment of U.S. ground forces to the Former Yugoslavia. The commitment, crafted in Dayton, Ohio, had been avoided for some 4 years. Perry carefully discussed the mission, rules of engagement, and exit strategy for U.S. forces.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:: United States and Yugoslavia

58520. Turkey: Thwarted Ambition

Author:: Simon V. Mayall
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: At the end of the Cold War every country was forced to reexamine the fundamental assumptions that had formed their security policies for the last 45 years. Among the "victors" of the Cold War, few countries were faced with a more disparate set of new circumstances than Turkey. Unlike the United States and Western Europe, "victory" for Turkey had a very ambivalent quality. Almost overnight Turkey moved from being the buttressing flank of one strategic region, to the epicenter of a new one.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States and Turkey

58521. NATO and Humanitarian Action in the Kosovo Crisis

Author:: Marc Sommers, Larry Minear, and Ted van Baarda
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: The world's response to the Kosovo crisis dramatizes the increased role of international military forces in humanitarian action. Some people view this development positively as the harnessing of the military for humanitarian tasks; others are alarmed at the perceived militarization of humanitarian action. A workshop convened by the Netherlands Foreign Ministry in The Hague on November 15-16, 1999, assessed these different perspectives on the Kosovo experience in the light of research it had commissioned.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: Kosovo and Netherlands

58522. Human Development: The World After Copehagen

Author:: Richard Jolly
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: John W. Holmes' talk for the first annual meeting of the Academic Council on the United Nations System ( ACUNS ) in 1988 was titled Looking Backwards and Forwards. I would like to put the emphasis in this article on looking forwards—from Copenhagen plus one to the year 2000, 2015, or even 2030. In short, I would like to direct attention to the world that the United Nations will need to face in the years ahead, and explore how human advance can be carried forward over that period, rather than dwell on the predicaments in which the world is at present caught up or through which the UN has struggled over the fifty years of its existence.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United Nations

58523. Humanitarian Action and Politics: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:: S. Neil MacFarlane and Larry Minear
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: This study reviews the intersection between politics and humanitarian action in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Approaching humanitarian action as including both assistance and protection, as well as emergency aid and reconstruction inputs, the study analyzes the intrusion of political agendas into humanitarian responses to the conflict and assesses the damages of the resulting politicization of activities.

58524. More Teaching About International Organization: Selected Syllabi

Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: No abstract is available.

58525. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Greg Gause
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Steve: My impression is that your group has identified the variables that might affect the way the peace process goes. In fact, you probably have too many to factor into any one scenario. One way to proceed might be to divide the variables into First Order and Second Order variables: First Order variables would be those in which a change would have direct and immediate consequences on the peace process; Second Order would be those in which change would have an indirect and/or longer-term effect. You rightly have problematized the question of just what direction your vectors might take. This distinction would add intensity as a second element of the vector.
Political Geography:: Middle East

58526. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Rick Hermann
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: My first cut at the hierarchy of driving forces ranks Israeli-Palestinian bilateral factors as the most important and regional and global factors as secondary. Competition between global powers (USA, Russia, China) is currently not intense. None of them see the bilateral Israeli-Palestinian conflict as instrumentally critical to their broader strategic competition with each other. None see their security as centrally tied to this conflict, and, consequently, while interested not even the United States will commit enough resources at this point to overturn the forces driving the bilateral bargain. Competition among regional states is substantial, but the conflicts that do not involve Israel do not involve states powerful enough to project their competition into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For example, Iranian v. Turkish, or Iranian v. Saudi Arabian, or Syrian v. Iraq, or India v. Pakistan might tangentially connect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, mostly in the realm of rhetoric and symbol manipulation. None of these states, however, are strong enough to see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an instrumental regional manifestation of their broader strategic conflict. The primary determinants of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation process in the short-term are the conflicting ambitions and calculations made by Israelis and Palestinians. Forces at the global and regional level will affect these bargaining calculations, (affecting both relative coercive leverage and positive reassurance) but they will not impose additional sources of conflict. My examination of global and regional forces, will follow my construction of the primary bilateral dynamic. I do not think global and regional factors will upset the short-term prediction I will make for the bilateral Palestinian-Israeli relationship. They may play a big role in shaping longer-term predictions.
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

58527. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Bruce Jentleson
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: There are two issues I want to raise regarding our basic approach of focusing on driving forces to trace scenarios and predict outcomes. First is the question of the time frame of the outcomes to which we are driving. I ask this with particular reference to the "violent collapse" outcome. There are numerous permutations here that we need to differentiate. I'm not adept enough to graph it on the computer, but here are the permutations: Two versions of violent collapse: violent collapse as some sort of end state for whatever our timeframe is, or violent collapse as an intermediate outcome which then comes back together and leads to "two state" or "autonomy"; If violent collapse as an intermediate stage, then what conditions make an ensuing path to Palestinian state more likely, and what conditions for autonomy? Or what 's the story line for getting to either of these without going through violent collapse? And what are the parameters and criteria for what we mean by "violent" (Singer and Small had their figures for how many deaths equal a war; how many equal "violent") and by "collapse", as distinct from pause or suspension of talks?
Political Geography:: Middle East

58528. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: David E. Spiro
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Several interesting observations came out of our first conference. We realized that the mainstream academic view on the Middle East peace process has changed dramatically—from a belief that there would never be a peace to confidence that the peace process would not be derailed. In trying to make predictions that are not driven by newspaper headlines, we used a fairly uncontroversial laundry list of systemic variables, but we could not agree on which way they would effect the outcome. My aim in this memorandum is to review my past views on the Middle East peace process as an exercise in exploring what changed—both in the Middle East, and in my own implicit assumptions. I will amend my conclusions about the past by examining what has happened since the Oslo Accords. Finally, I will suggest, by way of conclusion, what driving forces will affect the future.
Political Geography:: Middle East

58529. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Janice Stein
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The two-state solution includes continuing but declining violence over time against Israeli and Palestinian civilians as the Palestinian state becomes entrenched and its legitimacy and authority grows, Palestinian leaders develop a commitment to the status quo, and the opposition in Israel reluctantly accepts the permanence of a Palestinian state. If the Palestinian state is poorly institutionalized, violence against Palestinian and Israeli citizens may well increase over time.
Topic:: Development and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

58530. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Don Sylvan
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Steve asked each of us to do the following: "Each participant will return to the next meeting with arguments on these seven driving forces. These arguments will include: Logic: what is the causal logic by which the driving force impacts on the intervening and dependent variables. Probability: what is the probability estimate of the effect. Hierarchy: is there an identifiable hierarchy among these driving forces.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: Middle East

58531. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Steven Weber
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The election of Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel threw into flux the Middle East peace process. What in early 1996 seemed to many observers the almost inevitable "working out" of a decades-long conflict that had gradually become unsustainable on all sides, was by late 1996 seen more clearly as part of a contingent unfolding set of events which could drive the region in more than one direction, including backwards toward explicit conflict and even war. This presents unique theoretical, analytic, and policy opportunities.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: Middle East

58532. After Hebron: Prospects for the Peace Process

Author:: Zalman Shoval
Publication Date:: 03-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: The Hebron agreement is now finally in place. During the months that it took to reach that point, some must have been reminded of what the nineteenth century British Prime Minister Lord Palmerstone once said about the Schleswig-Holstein question: there were only three people who understood it - one of whom was dead, one was in an asylum, and he himself had forgotten it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Middle East

58533. Saudi Arabia in the 1990s: Stability and Foreign Policy

Author:: Mordechai Abir
Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: The stability of Saudi Arabia (and the Persian Gulf as a whole) is crucially important to the world's industrial countries. According to the Gulf Center of Strategic Studies, "oil is expected to account for 38 percent of all the world consumption of energy until 2015, compared to 39 percent in 1993. Increasing world-wide demand for oil, now about 74 million barrels per day, is projected to rise by 2015 to about 110 million" (Gulf Report, London, July 1997). Over 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia alone controls 25 percent of the total.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Saudi Arabia

58534. Demarcating an Israeli-Palestinian Border: Geographic Considerations

Author:: David Newman
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: Maps are a very important part of the political process of conflict resolution known as the peace process. Maps are important parts of all territorial conflicts. We often walk around with the idea of a map in our head and think we know what we are talking about, but often we do not.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Peace Studies, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

58535. Turkey Between Secularism and Islamism

Author:: Jacob M. Landau
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: When Mustafa Kamal (Ataturk) founded the Republic of Turkey in 1923 (he was its president until his death fifteen years later), he set as his main objective the modernization of the new republic. His preferred means was speedy, intensive secularization and, indeed, every one of his reforms was tied up with disestablishing other Islamic institutions from their hold on Turkey's politics, economics, society, and cultural life.
Topic:: Government, Islam, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

58536. The Northeast Asian Security Setting

Author:: Sheldon W. Simon
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: We may now be experiencing one of those relatively rare periods in world affairs when the structure of the international system does not dominate foreign policies. While the old cold war alliances have not completely disappeared from U.S. security policy, their ability to determine reflexively America's foreign relations on issues from Bosnia in Europe to the Spratly islands in the Pacific has greatly atrophied. For other states, too, domestic considerations and nearby regional concerns take precedence over alliances with remote great powers whose reliability is problematic in this new era. To better understand this unfamiliar international security environment, analysts should concentrate on internally generated alternative national visions of security which, in the aggregate, are creating a new, innovative structure of international politics.
Political Geography:: America, Europe, and Northeast Asia

58537. Changing U.S.-Korean Security Relations

Author:: Edward A. Olsen
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: United States-Korea security relations are experiencing a period of dynamic change that raises serious questions about the way that the relationship will evolve during the 21st Century. A number of well-known factors have provoked this phase. The end of the U.S.-Soviet cold war, North Korea's use of its nuclear card to engage the United States in a broader dialogue, South Korea's pursuit of diverse multilateral approaches to its security to shore up the U.S.-ROK alliance, and the emergence of Chinese and Japanese assertiveness in the regional balance of power, cumulatively have altered the context in which Washington and Seoul conduct their bilateral security relations. Both allies are struggling to come to grips with these new—and sometimes troubling—circumstances.
Political Geography:: United States, South Korea, and Korea

58538. The Viability of U.S. Security Strategy Toward the Korean Peninsula

Author:: William J. Taylor, Jr. and Abraham Kim
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The end of the cold war resulted in a mixed bag of challenges in the Northeast Asia region. The Soviet threat is gone, but the danger of regional instability is not. Lingering conflicts, old rivalries, and security challenges pose an uncertain future for the Asia-Pacific. The U.S. military presence still remains an important stabilizer in the region. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense, William Perry stated: "It is [the U.S. military] presence that the countries of the [Asia-Pacific] region consider a critical variable in the East Asia security equation.... [and] the most important factor in guaranteeing stability and peace."
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, South Korea, and North Korea

58539. North Korea and the United Nations

Author:: Samuel S. Kim
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: On 17 September 1991, the first day of its (46th) annual session, the United Nations General Assembly admitted the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) as the 160th and 161st member states. This historical turnabout was made possible by what had already happened in the Security Council five weeks earlier. Indeed, the 3001st meeting of the Security Council on 8 August 1991 may well be remembered as one of the remarkable events or nonevents in the annals of global high politics in the world organization. Since 1947 the Korean question, in a great variety of contentious manifestations, has proved to be one of the most intractable problems constandy intruding upon wider East-West geopolitical and ideological rivalries in and out of the world organization. Yet, on this day the Security Council devoted only five minutes—between 11:30am and 11:35am EST to be exact—to finally crossing the Rubicon on divided Korea. Without any debate, the Council unanimously adopted the report of the Committee on the Admission of New Members concerning the applications of the two Koreas for admission to membership in the United Nations.
Topic:: United Nations
Political Geography:: North Korea

58540. North Korea's Approaches to the United States and Japan

Author:: B.C. Koh
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: North Korea's approach to the United States is arguably one of the few success stories emanating from Pyongyang. While the story is still unfolding, what has transpired thus far has clearly benefited North Korea in both tangible and intangible ways. By contrast, North Korea's approach to Japan has produced but meager results thus far. Potentially, however, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) stands to profit immensely should its quest for diplomatic normalization with Japan bear fruit.
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and North Korea

58541. Japan's Policy Toward the Two Koreas in the Post-Cold War Era

Author:: Hong Nack Kim
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: During the cold war era, Japan's Korea policy was geared to the preservation of the status quo on the Korean peninsula by way of supporting the Republic of Korea (ROK) both politically and economically, while refusing to recognize the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). However, Japan's foreign policy in general and its Korea policy in particular had to make some significant adjustments in the aftermath of the collapse of the Communist regimes in the Soviet Union and Eastern European nations, which ended the cold war in Europe, and a train of rapid developments on and around the Korean peninsula in the post-cold war era.
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, and Korea

58542. U.S. Policies Toward the Two Koreas

Author:: Larry Niksch
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The South Korean government has announced that it would affect a delay in the inauguration of construction of light-water reactors in North Korea (DPRK). Seoul acted in response to North Korea's submarine-borne infiltration of military personnel into South Korea (ROK) and what appears to be North Korea's complicity in the assassination of an ROK diplomat in Vladivostok, Russia. The delay probably will be temporary. By the spring of 1997, a formula likely will be found that will allow construction to begin; and implementation of this important part of the October 1994 U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework will proceed.
Political Geography:: South Korea and North Korea

58543. Chinese and U.S. Relations with South Korea: Compatibilities and Conflicts

Author:: Robert Sutter
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Chinese-American Rivalry in Korea—A New "Great Game"?There has been considerable discussion in Washington, Beijing and Seoul in recent years about an emerging competition between the United States and China for influence in the Korean peninsula in general and in South Korea in particular. Some in China have voiced concern over alleged U.S. efforts to hold back and "contain" China's rising power and influence in East Asia. They have been impressed by the recent "gains" in U.S. influence with North Korea. Indeed, from their perspectives, the North Koreans have moved away from their traditionally antagonistic stance toward the United States to a foreign policy approach that appears to give top priority to reaching an arrangement with Washington that would allow for the continued survival of the North Korean regime, or at least a so-called "soft landing" for the increasingly troubled government. A possible scenario contrary to these Chinese analysts interests would see the end of the North Korean regime and the reunification of the peninsula by South Korea under arrangements carried out under the guidance and overall influence of the United States, with the support of Japan. In the view of such Chinese officials, such an arrangement would confront China with a major security problem in a crucial area of Chinese concern for the foreseeable future, gready weakening China's ability to exert power and influence in Asian and world affairs. It would give Americans interested in "containing" China a much more advantageous strategic position in East Asia than they now possess.
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, America, East Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

58544. China's Post-Cold War Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula

Author:: Thomas W. Robinson
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Domestic and International Determinants of Chinese Foreign Policy The period beginning with the Tiananmen Incident of June 1989 initiated the third period of Chinese foreign policy. The first coincided with the rule of Mao Zedong, 1949-1976, and the second extended, after a brief interregnum, from Deng Xiaoping's return to power in 1978 to the Beijing disturbances on 1989. While each period naturally exhibited its own special characteristics, all shared a set of three domestic and three international categories of determinants. To understand those of the post-Tiananmen period, one must inspect, for comparative purposes, those of the first two eras as well. In each era, it is clear that domestic determinants predominated, configuring not only the general direction of foreign policy but much of the specific content. The six determinants influenced Chinese policy toward the Korean peninsula as well, and it is therefore useful to provide a brief sketch in each instance.
Political Geography:: Korea

58545. Soviet and Russian Relations with the Two Koreas

Author:: Jane Shapiro Zacek
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This essay considers Soviet and then Russian relations with North and South Korea since 1988, which was a watershed year for Soviet policy toward northeast Asia. By that time, the Soviet leadership had reassessed basic ideological and security interests as well as the country's growing domestic economic needs. While the Communist Party was still in power and Mikhail Gorbachev was still General Secretary of the Central Committee (a position he had assumed upon the death of Konstantin Chernenko in March 1985), Marxist-Leninist ideology was playing an everdecreasing role in Party politics and policymaking. By 1987, Gorbachev began to stress the critical need to shift primary political power and the policymaking process from the Party to state institutions. He also emphasized the necessity of revamping the Soviet economy, which would be costly and would need foreign assistance. By 1988, the international communist movement, with the Soviet Union at its head, no longer was of interest to the Soviet leader. Rather, he was looking to reconfirm his country's role as a great power in the international arena, a power that could not be ignored in any regional political turmoil and subsequent settlement, whether in Africa, the Middle East, or Northeast Asia.
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, South Korea, Korea, and Northeast Asia

58546. Unification Policies and Strategies of North and South Korea

Author:: Young Whan Kihl
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The unification policies of North and South Korea have changed little from the days of the cold war era in both official lines and basic premise. The "new detente" between the two Koreas, which was to follow from the planned summitry between South Korean President Kim Young Sam and North Korean President Kim II Sung, was the casualty of the latter's sudden death in July 1994. Since then, instead of working toward peace, the frigid cold war atmosphere has returned to the Korean peninsula. Implementation of the historic Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation between the South and the North, signed 13 December 1991 and promulgated on 19 February 1992, has also proven to be more difficult than anticipated. Not surprisingly, the strategic goals of Seoul and Pyongyang remain far apart and irreconcilable despite official posturing and rhetoric.
Political Geography:: South Korea and North Korea

58547. The Dark Side of Social Capital

Author:: Martin Gargiulo and Mario Benassi
Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:: Research on social capital has stressed the advantages that networks can bring to managers and other economic actors. The enthusiasm with this "bright side" of social capital, however, neglects the fact that social bonds may at times have detrimental effects for a manager. This paper tries to correct the optimistic bias by looking at the "dark side" of social capital. Continuing benefits from social capital require that managers can adapt the composition of this social capital to the shifting demands of their task environment. This often implies the ability to create new ties while lessening the salience of some of the old bonds--if not severing them altogether. Available evidence, however, suggests that this ability may be encumbered by the same relationships purportedly responsible for the prior success of the manager. When and how this may happen is the central question we address in this paper. We argue that strong ties to cohesive contacts limit the manager's ability keep control on the composition of his network and jeopardize his adaptability to changing task environments. We test our ideas with data on managers operating in a special unit of a European high-technology firm.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: Europe

58548. Health Challenges for the 21st Century

Author:: Joshua Lederberg, Margaret Hamburg, Stephen Morse, Philip R. Reilly, and Timothy Wirth
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: New York Academy of Sciences
Abstract:: A crisis usually eliminates the time required to focus on the long-term: The urgent tends to drive out the important. Over the past several years, public policy perspectives on health care have often suffered from such myopia. In the United States, and in many other countries around the world, spiraling costs and shrinking budgets have focused health policy attention on perceived near-term crises over the allocation of (often public) resources. Because public resource allocation involves tax dollars, and because voters feel personally affected by changes in health services, the controversy enters the political arena. Moreover, politics itself is a very near-term business, with the ballot box and polling data providing its primary compass. In turn, this has added to the tendency to think of health care challenges in terms of immediate needs and to focus on the moment rather than on the consequences of today's changes in tomorrow's complex patterns.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and America

58549. As Mexico Imploded: Action and Inaction in the United States

Author:: Sidney Weintraub
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: On December 20, 1994, Mexican financial and monetary authorities raised the band within which the peso was permitted to fluctuate by 15 percent. They expected a short-lived shock, some economic adjustment, and then back to business as usual with a modestly devalued peso. Mexico, after all, had a history of currency devaluations, particularly during the transitions from one administration to another. Beyond that, Mexico was not a world monetary powerhouse and what it did would not normally attract great or sustained international attention.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Latin America, and Mexico

58550. Trading Places: The Caribbean Faces Europe and the Americas in the Twenty-first Century

Author:: Anthony T. Bryan
Publication Date:: 06-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: The challenges confronting the Caribbean with respect to trade with Europe and the Americas are essentially similar: the future of existing regimes of significant preferences, the need to plan for the long term without such preferences, and the development of a strategy to meet the transition. Unfortunately, the dialogue on these matters often has been characterized as a protocol for the Caribbean to “choose between friends.” Growth in the economies of the Caribbean will depend to a large extent on participation in or access to global trade arrangements. Ideally, a Caribbean strategy for participation should involve simultaneous access to as many pacts as possible. This paper is an overview of the legacy and the future of trade relations between the Caribbean and Europe, and between the Caribbean and the Americas, as these relationships constitute the Caribbean's most urgent global agenda.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, America, Europe, and Caribbean

58551. Possibilities and Realities of Cuba's Integration into the Caribbean: Perceptions of Cuban Entrepreneurs

Author:: Gerardo Gonzalez
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper analyzes how Cuban entrepreneurs perceive the importance of their role in Cuba's reintegration into the Caribbean. In the context of recent Cuban-Caribbean economic relations, Caribbean entrepreneurs have taken the lead, and Cuban entrepreneurs are trying to conduct business under changing and challenging conditions. As the Cuban economy gradually adapts to new national and international realities, an increasing number of Cuban firms are beginning to participate directly and actively in Cuba's external economic relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Cuba and Caribbean

58552. Trade Policy Options for Chile: A Quantitative Evaluation

Author:: Glenn W. Harrison and Thomas F. Rutherfod
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper examines the net economic benefits and government revenue implications for Chile of forming a free trade area with MERCOSUR as an associate member, forming a free trade area with NAFTA, and reducing its external tariff multilaterally and unilaterally. The research shows that NAFTA would benefit Chile, but Chile must obtain improved access in non-grain crops, one of its key export sectors, or NAFTA will result in losses for Chile. Chile will lose from the MERCOSUR agreement as presently constituted but can gain from participation in MERCOSUR by reducing its external tariff to between 6 percent and 8 percent. Such a lowering of the external tariff would lead to a reduction of costly, trade-diverting imports (on which Chile does not collect tariffs) from high-priced partner country suppliers. The paper indicates that Chile should continue to push for NAFTA membership, while moving toward broader multilateral trade liberalization. Additionally, collecting the value added tax at more uniform rates in Chile would reduce domestic distortions and enhance the effectiveness of trade policy reforms.
Topic:: Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance

58553. Privatization and Regulation: Lessons from Argentina and Chile

Author:: Luigi Manzetti
Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Some economists have argued that before governments privatize state-owned monopolies in public utilities, they should first try to promote competition. If this is not done, privatization does not produce gains in economic efficiency; instead, it fosters rent-seeking behavior by the new private ownership. Few empirical analyses of rent-seeking behavior for Latin America in post-privatization environments have been done — those that exist concentrate on economic issues and neglect important political motivations. The purpose of this paper is to fill that gap and address key issues of public policy by examining the cases of Chile and Argentina and providing a political explanation for why the Chilean and Argentine governments allowed rent-seeking behavior in important public utility markets. Based upon an analysis of these experiences, the paper then discusses the types of institutions most likely to avoid such negative consequences.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Political Economy

58554. Private Investment as a Financing Source for Microcredit

Author:: Carter Garber
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: In this paper, economist and development finance consultant Carter Garber examines the process of complementing donations and commercial bank credit with private investments as a source of capital for international microenterprise finance. First, he describes the large expectations for private capital in the rapid growth of microenterprise finance. Second, Garber discusses the varied sources of private capital, especially those involving socially responsible investment. The third and central section is an examination of eight “socially responsible investment” mechanisms that currently channel $27 million of U.S. private credit to microfinance lending institutions. Garber demonstrates the variety of available mechanisms and examines their track record to date. The final section identifies policy changes that will be necessary for these types of private investment in microenterprise to grow fast enough to meet the expected demand during the coming decade.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance

58555. The New National Security Environment and its Impact on the Civilic-Military Relations in Bulgaria

Author:: Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: Civil-military relations as one of the indicators and factors for the consolidat ion of democracy in the national and international societies are undergoing deep - in some cases, or more gradual changes - in others. The absence of a univers al theory of how the relations between civil society and its military should loo k like is no reason to neglect the various sources of transformation in the civi l-military relations' field: First, the changing mission of the democratic military in the post-Cold War era; Second, the high-tech and especially the infotech revolutions that change largel y the roles of the military profession and its missions; Third, the social processes of the less developed South, or the so called "third " or "developing world" and, Fourth, the democratic transitions in the postcommunist or rather post-totalitar ian socialist world. Bulgaria is subjected to deep systemic social changes as a former totalitarian s ocialist society and state. At the same time the post-Cold War global, regional and sub-regional security situation strongly, and in some cases even decisively , motivates the national security and the more general social transformations an d adaptations. Bulgarian society and its military component cannot be isolated from the revolutionary technological and especially information technological ch anges - another major factor of understanding the complexity of the present situ ation in this country and in its armed forces.
Topic:: National Security, Military Affairs, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:: Europe and Bulgaria

58556. NATO Enlargement: Two Looks from Outside

Author:: Laszlo Nagy and Valeri Ratchev
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: Bulgaria’s missing institutional or effective bilateral contact pillars of national security, the conscientious alienation of Bulgaria by Russia and the treatment of the country by the west as a partner of secondary or even lesser importance endangers the very integrity of the Bulgarian society, the security of the Balkan subregion as well as the stability of Europe in general. Bulgaria desperately needs an anchor for its national security system and Laszlo Nagy’s and Valeri Ratchev’s considerations add importantly for the clarification of the issue. This Research Report is a part of the research activity of ISIS of openly and honestly assessing the needs, interests and the possible solutions of the Bulgarian national security dilemmas in the context of an All-European system of cooperation and stability.
Topic:: NATO, International Cooperation, National Security, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Bulgaria

58557. America's New Deal with Europe: NATO Primacy and Double Expansion

Author:: Carl Conetta
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: Including analysis relevant to the 2022 Ukraine crisis, this article addresses NATO expansion, burdensharing, the Balkans crisis, and relations with Russia and Germany. The American debate and public opinion regarding NATO enlargement is reviewed as well.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Balkans, North America, and United States of America

58558. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

58559. Time to End the Certification Circus

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: More than a decade ago, the U.S. Congress established a procedure whereby each year the president must “certify” that a given country is cooperating with us in the eradication of drug production and trafficking. Governments that lag behind, show little enthusiasm for our crusade, or are found colluding with narco-lords are subject to sanctions. Those “decertified” are denied foreign assistance, as well as U.S. votes for loans at the international financial institutions. Such countries–or, rather, our investors in their countries–also become ineligible for premiums from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Narcotics Trafficking, and Drugs
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

58560. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America

58561. Arms Sales: An Old Issue Revisited

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 06-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: Is the United States on the verge of pushing the major Latin American countries into a new arms race? Time seems to think so, to judge by a long article in the April 14 issue. Subtitled “the inside story of how the Pentagon and big defense contractors got the President to open the way for weapons sales to Latin America,” Time claims to provide the background to the Clinton administration’s current review of arms transfer policy. In so doing, the article revives an old controversy, namely, what role the United States plays (or should play) in the acquisition (or denial) of expensive military hardware, particularly to countries that lie within its own sphere of influence and, in the opinion of arms control experts, humanitarians, and journalists, “don’t need weapons at all.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:: Latin America

58562. Mexico’s Midterm Elections: A Major Turning Point?

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: On July 6, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a new Chamber of Deputies, renew a quarter of the Senate, and choose governors and legislators in six states. They will also have the opportunity to elect–for the first time–the governor of Mexico City, a position that, until now, has been appointive rather than elected. These races amount to both a midterm referendum on the stewardship of President Ernesto Zedillo and a crucial test of his ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Elections, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

58563. Argentina: Another Round at the Polls

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: This month President Clinton visits Argentina, a major South American country that in recent years has become one of our most valued and trusted Latin allies. His presence there will underscore the special relationship that President Carlos Sal Menem has forged with the United States, a relationship that is a mirror image of Argentina’s historic antagonism toward Washington and all its works. Clinton’s presence will also highlight Argentina’s significant victories in the economic field–in the war against inflation, in the struggle to reestablish creditworthiness, and, above all, in its efforts to attract significant new foreign investment from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The visit precedes by about ten days an important midterm election, which in all probability will determine the political lineup for that country’s 1999 presidential election. In this regard, the most important development has been the creation of a multiparty coalition, the Alliance, which will be running joint lists against the candidates of Menem’s own Peronist Party. If the Peronists hold their own on October 26, Menem will be tempted to make a bid for an unprecedented third term. If they are soundly defeated, the struggle for succession within Peronism will begin the morning after. But a victory for the Alliance by no means clearly points the way for the opposition, which is beset by profound divisions of its own. This vagueness makes these elections a particularly interesting lens through which to view Argentina’s continuing evolution.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:: Argentina and Latin America

58564. Who’s Afraid of Big Bad Brazil?

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: On his trip to South America last month, President Clinton made quite a splash in Brazil. After starting off badly–dodging a torrent of manure thrown at his motorcade–he ended the week with the local media singing his praises. The secret of his success? The president (a quick study if there ever was one) immediately grasped that the best way to get along with Brazilians was to repeat back to them–with redoubled enthusiasm–what they told him about themselves. Thus, by the time Clinton had been in the country for thirty-six hours, he was expressing his conviction that Brazil, together with the United States, would lead the hemisphere in the twenty-first century. He also went out of his way to insist on his support for Mercosur, a subregional trade agreement-cum-political alliance of whose existence Clinton was probably only peripherally aware before his trip. In so doing, he seemed to be writing off an entire continent to the Brazilian sphere of influence.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Politics, and Reform
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and United States of America

58565. Organizing Diversity: Evolutionary Theory, Network Analysis, & Postsocialist Transformations

Author:: Gernot Grabher and David Stark
Publication Date:: 01-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: In contrast to the dominant transition framework that examines organizational forms in Eastern Europe according to the degree to which they conform to or depart from the blueprints of already existing capitalisms, this essay exam ines the innovative character. born of necessity. in whicb actors in the postsocialist setting are restructured by re defining and recombining resources. Instead of conceiving these recombinations as accidental aberrations. it explores their evolutionary potentials. Its starting premise is that the actual unit of entrepreneurshp is not the isolated indi vidual personality but the social networks that link firms and the actors within them. Drawing on recent develop ments in evolutionary theory. it cautions that although all-encompassing privatization and marketization might fos ter adaptation in the short run. the consequent loss of organizational diversity will impede adaptability in the long run. *This essay was written while David Stark was a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences supported by grants from the National Science Foundation #SES-9022192 and from the U.S. Department of State Title VIII Funds Grant #1006-304101. Our thanks to Bill Barnett, Pascal Boyer, Geoff Fougere, Istvan Gabor, Szabolcs Kemeny, Ger ald McDermott, and Monique Djokic Stark for their criticisms of an earlier draft. Address correspondence to David Stark Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, 202 Junipero Serra Blvd., Stanford CA 94305 (or to stark@casbs. stanford.edu).
Topic:: Diversity, Network Analysis, Post-Communism, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

58566. The Break-Up of Czechoslovakia: The Impact of Party Development on the Separation of the State

Author:: Abby Innes
Publication Date:: 01-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: When Czechoslovakia separated into two independent republics on January 1, 1993, it was hailed as the "velvet divorce." Relief that a European "ethnic" conflict had been resolved without physical aggression was apparently so deep as to have blunted curiosity about the real issues underlying the conflict. This paper looks back into the file and, in particular, explores the impact of party political developments on efforts to mediate some form of constitutional compromise. The analysis is not intended as an account of the separation (which would necessarily delve deep into historical, cultural, and economic questions). The more specific aim is to consider the issues and institutional pressures that dominated party development between 1989 and 1993, and to evaluate their contribution to the split. The article concludes that the profoundly unpopular decision to separate the country emanated from irreconcilable views on the correct "transition" path rather than a deeply rooted nationalism on either side. Moreover, both Czech and Slovak electorates were, to a striking degree, "held hostage" to party choices of economic policy and a common state, presented as mutually exclusive possibilities.
Topic:: Politics, Ethnicity, Political Parties, and Post-Communism
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Czechoslovakia

58567. Gross Human Rights Violations in 1994

Author:: Brigitte Hamm
Publication Date:: 12-1996
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: Leaving theoretical questions aside, the measurement of human rights is often considered to be appropriate in evaluating a country's human rights situation. Such data are used as an auxiliary tool of exogenous pressure, which is known as political conditionality whereby aid is related to specific political practices. Often human rights organizations of the South ask for the instrument of political conditionality against repressive regimes. However, exogenous pressure directed mainly towards elections and the respect for political human rights may be criticized as a kind of imperialistic attitude, trying to implement Western values in Non-Western societies.
Topic:: Development, Human Rights, Politics, Terrorism, and Conditionality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

58568. The Honecker Trial: The East German Past and the German Future

Author:: A. James McAdams
Publication Date:: 01-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Fifty years after the Nuremberg tribunals, Germany is once again caught up in a series of controversial trials involving former dictators. This time officials of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) sit in the dock. Some observers have criticized these proceedings, maintaining that they will result in the imposition of an arbitrary form of 'victor's justice.' Others have claimed, in contrast, that the cumbersome German Rechtsstaat ('state under the law') will prove incapable of responding to public demands for retribution. In this paper the author maintains that Germany's courts have not been at a loss to answer these complaints. By grounding their judgments in preexisting East German law, the courts have managed to bring some of the GDR's former leaders to justice while at the same time guaranteeing most defendants the full protections of the rule of law. In the process the courts have even conveyed an important message about the terms under which both German populations will be brought back together again.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Social Movement, and Transitional Justice
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and East Germany

58569. The Political Economy of Distributional Equity in Comparative Perspective

Author:: Kwan S. Kim
Publication Date:: 03-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Growing income inequality within a country is caused by socioeconomic factors and inadequate government policies and ultimately leads to social and political instabilities. The ideology of supply-side economics in the United States and the United Kingdom during the 1980s, for instance, induced policies of inequality which were then perceived as a way to stimulate economic growth. The demise of East European socialism since the late 1980s also led many developing countries to pursue market reforms as a way to resuscitate their moribund economies. There is evidence, however, to indicate that the distribution of income in these countries is becoming more unequal with attendant and frequently grave social and political consequences.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Poverty, Inequality, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Global Focus, and United States of America

58570. German Capitalism: Does It Exist? Can It Survive?

Author:: Wolfgang Streeck
Publication Date:: 03-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: In the roughly four decades between the end of the Second World War and German unification, West German society gave rise to a distinctive kind of capitalist economy, governed by nationally specific social institutions that made for high international competitiveness at high wages and, at the same time, low inequality of incomes and living standards. Already by the late 1980s, when the differences in performance and social organization between the West German economy and its main competitors came to be widely noticed, the continued economic viability of the 'German model' began to appear doubtful to many. Shortly thereafter, the survival of the German version of advanced capitalism became tied to its successful extension to the former East Germany. With the 1992 completion of the European Internal Market, it became in addition dependent on the compatibility of German economic institutions with the emerging regime of the integrated European economy.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Governance, Capitalism, Economic Growth, Social Justice, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

58571. Poverty in Latin America: Issues and New Responses-A Rapporteurs' Report

Author:: Gabriela Ippolito-O'Donnell and Brenda Markovitz
Publication Date:: 03-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The Kellogg Institute hosted an academic workshop on “Poverty in Latin America: Issues and New Responses,” from 30 September to 1 October 1995. This was the third annual workshop in the series “Project Latin America 2000,” supported by The Coca-Cola Company. The workshop gathered scholars, policymakers, business and labor leaders, grassroots practitioners, and journalists from throughout the Americas to examine current trends in poverty, inequality, and employment emerging in the aftermath of structural adjustment, and to share policy experiences aimed at improving employment opportunities, organizational capabilities, and living conditions of the urban and rural poor. Vilmar Faria (Special Advisor to the President, Brazil) and Víctor Tokman (Assistant Director General and Regional Director for the Americas, International Labor Organization, Peru) organized these events. This report summarizes the academic workshop, including abstracts of each of the papers presented, the discussants’ remarks, the issues debated, and the organizers’ conclusions.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Poverty, Economic Growth, Social Justice, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

58572. The Political Economy of Regional Development and Cooperation in the Pacific Basin, with Special Reference to APEC-A Rapporteurs' Report

Author:: Joseph Stevano and William Barnes
Publication Date:: 04-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The papers and discussion summarized here were presented at the workshop “The Political Economy of Regional Development and Cooperation in the Pacific Basin, with Special Reference to APEC,” which was held at the Kellogg Institute, 12–14 October 1995. Some of the papers presented, including those by Yoji Akashi, Brian Job, and Clark Reynolds, will also be published in their entirety as part of the Kellogg Institute Working Paper Series. The United States, Canada, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and many other East Asian countries all belong to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and a distinctive feature of the workshop was that it consisted of experts from both sides of the Pacific. The result is a comprehensive look at the issues of trade and development in this region. Yorizumi Watanabe pointed out some tensions between regional and multilateral trade agreements. Satoshi Hanai’s paper analyzed the current Japanese recession; the papers by Akashi, Tsutomu Kikuchi, and Job focused on APEC, the former two from an Asian perspective, the latter from a North American—which provided a provocative contrast between different explanations and interpretations of the exact same events. Shozo Inouye analyzed Japan’s contribution to human resource development throughout the Asia-Pacific, while Michael Plummer and Reynolds analyzed the economic impact of economic integration in this region.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Asia

58573. Ethnicity and Development: The Caribbean and Oceania

Author:: Ralph R. Premdas
Publication Date:: 03-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The environment of cultural pluralism and ethnic diversity is now grudgingly but generally acknowledged as a critical variable that must be incorporated in designing new strategies for development. There is urgent need to discuss the relationship between ethnicity and development in all its manifold political, economic, and social dimensions. The task is daunting; on its outcome may rest the fruitfulness of many designs of development involving billions of dollars and the fate of millions of poor people. The aim of this paper is to offer some empirical evidence and to generate some theoretical insights into the behavior of the ethnic factor in the development experience of two Third World countries, one in the Caribbean and the other in the Pacific Islands. I believe that systematic data derived from individual case histories can offer important building blocks towards constructing a wider theory on the connection between ethnicity and development.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Race, Ethnicity, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Caribbean and Oceania

58574. Another Institutionalization: Latin America and Elsewhere

Author:: Guillermo O'Donnell
Publication Date:: 03-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The paper expresses skepticism about concepts current in the contemporary literature on democratization, such as 'democratic consolidation' and/or the 'lack of institutionalization' from which most of the new democracies supposedly suffer. The further claim is made that these democracies-or 'polyarchies', to use the term preferred here-have, in fact, two very important institutions, elections and particularism/clientelism, which are not generally recognized as such due to the narrow way in which political scientists usually conceptualize institutions. Finally, the paper traces some correlates and elective affinities resulting from what it labels 'informal institutionalization.' The main argument is that, in order to contribute to improving the quality of many of the new polyarchies, analysts must describe their main features realistically, which requires moving well beyond merely negative characterizations limited to what these countries seem to lack in comparison with older polyarchies.
Topic:: Democratization, Governance, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe and Latin America

58575. Building Aspects of Democracy before Democracy: Electoral Practices in Nineteenth-Century Chile

Author:: J. Samuel Valenzuela
Publication Date:: 04-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The paper presents a detailed analysis of electoral practices in nineteenth-century Chile. It argues that such elections have been largely misunderstood in Chilean historiography, given the fact that the political system has been viewed simply as a tool in the hands of the rich. Indeed, the existence of income requirements in order to register to vote has even led analysts to assume that only wealthy males actually voted. By contrast, this paper shows that a majority of the voting public in the electoral processes that occurred every three years was drawn from the middle-lower to lower strata of society. The politicization of artisans and other working-class groups therefore began early in the nation's history. Moreover, the involvement of people in the electoral politics of the time greatly exceeded the numbers of men who actually voted. As such, the elections permitted the formation of a considerable degree of loyalty within the population at large for the emerging parties, which helps explain their strength in the Chilean case. The nineteenth century's electoral practices also created a competitive and highly militant electoral culture that affected the conduct of elections well into the twentieth century, i.e., even after crucial transformations in the early 1890s permitted them to become a vehicle for the realization of Chilean democracy.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, History, and Democracy
Political Geography:: South America and Chile

58576. Ethnicity and Elections in The Caribbean: A Radical Realignment of Power in Trinidad and the Threat of Communal Strife

Author:: Ralph R. Premdas
Publication Date:: 04-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The 1995 elections in the multiethnic Caribbean state, Trinidad and Tobago, were not an ordinary affair. They not only saw a change of regime but with it a change in the ethnic identity of the new political rulers. Control of the government by one ethnic party or the other poses a threat to the welfare of excluded and defeated parties. For many years one ethnic community controlled the government and entrenched its supporters at all levels of government as well as allocating most resources for the benefit of its own community. With the arrival of a new communally based party to power following the 1995 elections, vital interests are at stake. This paper examines how the change of government occurred through the electoral process.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, Elections, and Ethnicity
Political Geography:: Central America, Caribbean, and Trinidad and Tobago

58577. Poverty and Inequality in Latin America: Some Political Reflections

Author:: Guillermo O'Donnell
Publication Date:: 07-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The paper begins with a brief overview of the present social situation of Latin America, arguing that during the 1980s the widespread poverty and deep social inequality already existing in the region further increased. After this the paper reviews several strategies that could be used by would-be reformers, pointing out the potentialities but also the limitations of these strategies. Consequently the present text examines the broad contours of political coalitions that might be able to deal reasonably effectively with poverty and inequality. The paper concludes by arguing that the only possible foundation for these strategies and coalitions is a morally and democratically inspired view of the respect due to the dignity of every human being. The likelihood of such an emergence is not assessed.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, Poverty, and Inequality
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

58578. The Ecuadorean participation in the Andean pact: Macroeconomic and Sectoral Impact

Author:: Germán G. Creamer
Publication Date:: 06-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Protection of Ecuadorean industry, even after the tariff reform of 1990, has continued to be important for the nonbasic needs industries, which have a very low level participation in the Andean group (GRAN), but little protection has been provided for the basic needs industries, which have extensive participation in the Andean group. In light of these facts, this paper uses a macro neostructuralist model to evaluate whether the opening of the Ecuadorean economy to the Andean group will generate development of the basic needs consumer sector, at least in the initial stage, with positive effects on growth, income distribution, and external adjustment of the Ecuadorean economy. However, it is important to recognize that Ecuador may need special trade conditions with respect to the rest of the Andean countries or else go through a significant technological change (substitution of imported inputs for domestic inputs) and/or institutional change to ensure the success of this process.
Topic:: Development, Labor Issues, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: South America and Ecuador

58579. Changes in the International Distribution of Income

Author:: Herbert Stocker
Publication Date:: 07-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper attempts to assess the extent of income inequality among nations and the development of international inequality over the last three decades. After a brief introductory discussion of changes in the economic policies of industrialized countries towards poor countries and corresponding changes in the attitudes of economists, the author goes on to give an impression of the actual state of the international income distribution and mention some general problems of such comparisons. In the third section he computes an inequality index to describe the development of the international income distribution over time and presents some decompositions. The fourth section investigates the robustness of the results, and the fifth section presents an extension to world-wide inequality and reflects briefly on the significance of the results.
Topic:: Development, Poverty, Labor Issues, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Income
Political Geography:: Global Focus

58580. Disaggregating Political Regime: Conceptual Issues in the Study of Democratization

Author:: Gerardo L. Munck
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The increasingly global scope of democratization has challenged comparativists to engage in crossregional research as part of a collective enterprise. The response to such a challenge, however, hinges upon their ability to both base their research on a set of clear concepts, a prerequisite for theory-building, and clarify their method of case selection, a prerequisite for theory-testing. While these conceptual issues have yet to be fully resolved, I show how the work of a group of 'regime analysts' provides the best starting point for scholars interested in this enterprise. For this purpose, I show how the disaggregation of the concept of political regime provides the basis for a distinction among three analytically separable problems--the process of transition, the outcome of this process of transition, and the process of consolidation--and for more nuanced distinctions in terms of modes of transition, regime types and subtypes, and degrees of consolidation. I also show how the problem of conceptual stretching is avoided by regime analysts in the course of case selection through the vertical organization of their concepts along a ladder of generality and the application of a simple rule. Finally, I show how the study of political regimes on the basis of quantitative indices of democracy fails to avoid the problems of conceptual conflation and conceptual stretching.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Europe and South America

58581. Church-State Reciprocity in Contemporary Brazil: The Convening of the International Eucharistic Congress of 1955 in Rio de Janeiro

Author:: Kenneth P. Serbin
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Focusing on government support for the 36th International Eucharistic Congress of 1955 in Rio de Janeiro, this paper explores the reciprocities between church and state in contemporary Brazil. It argues that economic considerations were central to the link between religion and politics. Under the crucial church-state pact fostered under President Getúlio Vargas and nurtured throughout the democratic-populist era (1930-64) public subsidies helped the church expand its social and religious works and created dependence on the state. The International Eucharistic Congress highlighted how finances and faith mingled in Brazil's complex mosaic of religion, politics, and society. The paper discusses the history of the Eucharistic congresses, analyzes the church-state pact in Brazil, and gives an account of the 1955 Congress and its economic ramifications.
Topic:: Development, Religion, History, Governance, Economic Growth, and Society
Political Geography:: South Asia and Brazil

58582. Democracy 'with Adjectives': Conceptual Innovations in Comparative Research

Author:: David Collier and Steven Levitsky
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The recent trend toward democratization in countries throughout the globe has challenged scholars to pursue two potentially contradictory goals: to develop a differentiated conceptualization of democracy that captures the diverse experiences of these countries; and to extend the analysis to this broad range of cases without 'stretching' the concept. This paper argues that this dual challenge has led to a proliferation of conceptual innovations, including hundreds of subtypes of democracy-i.e., democracy 'with adjectives.' The paper explores the strengths and weaknesses of three important strategies of innovation that have emerged: 'precising' the definition of democracy; shifting the overarching concept with which democracy is associated; and generating various forms of subtypes. Given the complex structure of meaning produced by these strategies for refining the concept of democracy, we conclude by offering an old piece of advice with renewed urgency: It is imperative that scholars situate themselves in relation to this structure of meaning by clearly defining and explicating the conception of democracy they are employing.
Topic:: Globalization, Politics, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

58583. A New Discipline: Development Ethics

Author:: Denis Goulet
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: 'Development' has long been equated with modernization and Westernization and studied as a straightforward economic issue. The discipline of economics has been the main source of policy prescription for development decisionmakers. This view is now widely criticized as ethnocentric and as economically reductionist. Change is occurring: economics itself is reintegrating ethics into its conceptualization, methodology, and analysis; a new paradigm of development is in gestation; and a new discipline, development ethics, has come into being. Development ethics centers its study of development on the value questions posed: What is the relation between having goods and being good in the pursuit of the good life; what are the foundations of a just society; and what stance should societies adopt toward nature? The new discipline emerges from two sources, which are now converging: from engagement in development action to the formulation of ethical theory, and from a critique of mainstream ethical theory to the crafting of normative strategies to guide development practice. Development ethics has a dual mission: to render the economy more human and to keep hope alive in the face of the seeming impossibility of achieving human development for all.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Ethics, Economic Growth, and Modernization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

58584. Mexico's Auto Industry after NAFTA: A Successful Experience in Restructuring?

Author:: Juan Carlos Moreno Brid
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Mexico's motor vehicle sector is viewed as a most successful case in industrial restructuring. In the mid-70s it was an industry characterized by outdated machinery and incapable of competing in the international market. Today its manufacturing plants are competing worldwide in automotive production, exporting more than a million engines and 400,000 vehicles a year. This transformation is explained by changes in Mexico's positioning within the automobile global market as well as by the policies applied by the Mexican government to regulate vehicle production, imports, and sale in the country. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is changing the institutional framework of the Mexican economy and radically liberalizing its highly protected domestic automotive market. In this study we examine the evolution of Mexico's automotive sector in the last fifteen years and the various factors contributing to its transformation. The first section reviews Mexico's overall economic strategy and trade policy. The second focuses on the regulation of vehicle and auto parts production in Mexico. Clearly, trade restrictions have been very important for the development of Mexico's automotive sector. The third section deals with the performance of the Mexican automotive industry up to 1993, before NAFTA was put into effect. It is followed by some comments on the changes that NAFTA is already bringing about. In the final section, we present our view on the industry's outlook.
Topic:: Development, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, NAFTA, and Automotive Industry
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, and Mexico

58585. Accountability for Past Abuses

Author:: Juan E. Méndez
Publication Date:: 09-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The transitions to democracy in the 1980s have yielded a wealth of experience regarding the way societies reckon with a recent past of massive human rights violations. This paper looks at the most influential literature produced contemporaneously with those experiences and analyzes its current validity in the light of new contexts in which the issue arises. The author places emphasis first and foremost on the duties that the State owes to the victims of human rights violations and to society and then looks at the objective limitations that most transitions place on governments' ability to satisfy demands for truth and justice. These duties are part of an emerging rule of international law that demands that certain crimes should not go unpunished. But the obligations of the State to the victims and to society are varied and not dependent on each other; even if prosecution and punishment are rendered legally or politically impossible, the duties to disclose all that can be established about each violation, to offer reparations, and to dismiss the culprits from the armed and security forces remain fully in force.
Topic:: Democratization, Human Rights, Social Movement, Democracy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, South America, Central America, and Caribbean

58586. Ethnicity and Identity in the Caribbean: Decentering a Myth

Author:: Ralph R. Premdas
Publication Date:: 12-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This discussion of a Caribbean identity begins by embarking on a discourse about where and what is the Caribbean, followed by some brief remarks about the need for identity. The author presents an analytic scheme for understanding the construction of Caribbean identities. In the larger body of the paper that follows next, he examines individually the constituent elements that have featured in the formation of claims to a Caribbean identity at all levels of its expression and shows how difficult it is to maintain the arguments that are made for them. Finally, the paper offers a topology of identities that best describe the Caribbean situation.
Topic:: Democratization, Social Movement, Ethnicity, and Identity
Political Geography:: Central America and Caribbean

58587. International Conferences: Considerations on the Evolution of the French and American Industrial Societies

Author:: Monique Borrel, Stephen Bornstein, Pierre-Eric Tixier, Chris Benner, Julia E. Kopich, and W. Norton Grubb
Publication Date:: 02-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: From the beginning of the industrial era to the present time, French social history has been characterized by recurrent strikes of great magnitude. Contrary to most postwar industrialized countries where large strikes ceased to play a key role in sociopolitical changes, the French case presents an important anomaly. This research demonstrates that strikes have been instrumental in reshaping French society since the early 1950s. First, strike waves and generalized disputes supported the rapid expansion of the Welfare State throughout the postwar period. They also prompted leftist parties and unions to achieve coordination in their strategies and to orchestrate national demonstration strikes, which resulted in the emergence of a leftist electoral majority. Besides, the 1968 strike waves and the leftist strategy to achieve political power supported the upward trend in unionization in the 1970s. Beginning in the early 1980s, this French pattern of strikes has resulted in a number of perverse effects that account for the crisis of the mid1990s. In that respect, the French experience supports the idea that advanced industrial societies cannot afford recurrent general strikes without damaging the very fabric of democracy and without jeopardizing their economic future.
Topic:: Education and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: America, Europe, and France

58588. Co-Sponsored Projects: Transformation of German Party System

Author:: Wolfgang Seibel, Christopher S. Allen, Hans-Georg Betz, Henry Kreikenbaum, John Leslie, Andrei S. Markovitz, Ann L. Phillips, and Michaela W. Richter
Publication Date:: 03-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: According to West German standards, there is only a weak nonprofit sector in East Germany today. The East German quasi-nonprofit sector nonetheless is an indispensable institutional ingredient of political integration. It is characterized by an amazing degree of structural and ideological continuity. Much of its organizational setting dates back to the pre-1989 era. Both funding and managerial attitudes are shaped by state-centeredness. Nonprofit institutions are heavily engaged in mitigating the social costs of economic transformation. Many of them, especially at the local level, are controlled by members of the former-communist PDS (Party of Democratic Socialism). Thus, the East German quasinonprofit sector presumably integrates two important societal groups more effectively than the regular polity: those alienated from the new democracy due to economic disappointment or deprivation and those alienated from the new democracy due to ideological reasons (former communists in particular). This indicates a remarkable institutional elasticity whose main function is to "synchronize" the dramatically accelerated pace of political change and the much slower pace of societal change.
Topic:: Cold War and Democratization
Political Geography:: Europe

58589. Co-Sponsored Projects: Germany's Role In Shaping the New Europe: Architect, Model and Bridge

Author:: Daniel N. Nelson, Andrei S. Markovits, Thomas Banchoff, Patricia A. Davis, Christian Deubner, Lily Gardner Feldman, JoEllyn Murillo Fountain, Stefan Immerfall, Michael Kreile, Carl Lankowski, Barbara Lippert, Susanne Peters, Elke Thiel, and Wolfgang Wessels
Publication Date:: 04-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: This paper seeks to explain the continuity in German policy in Europe across the 1990 divide. Although the collapse of the Soviet bloc and reunification transformed the context of German foreign policy, its fundamental direction remained unchanged. The new Germany, like the old, made solidarity with the western allies the cornerstone of its policy in Europe. Chancellor Helmut Kohl did address new policy challenges in the East. But he made stronger western institutions, and a deeper European Union in particular, his top priorities. Neorealism and neoliberalism, this paper argues, cannot adequately explain the strong western orientation of the Federal Republic in the early 1990s. The constellation of power and institutions at the international level left German leaders with different ways to combine association with the West and engagement in the East. In order to explain the priority accorded solidarity with the West, it is necessary to bring in the foreign policy priorities espoused by Kohl and the views of history and its lessons that informed them.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

58590. Discourse Analysis as Foreign Policy Theory

Author:: Ole Wæver
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: Where is Germany heading? So we have been asking ourselves since the wall fell. We had been reasonably calmed down: they were apparently not out for new adventures of their own. No Eastward going it alone -- neither in Eastern Europe, nor with the Russians. Nor any autonomous power politics. On the contrary, Germany has primarily made itself noticed in global politics through its continued restraint, from half-hearted support in the Gulf War to qualms over participation in UN operations.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Germany

58591. Supranational Governance: The Institutionalization of the European Union

Author:: Wayne Sandholtz and Alec Stone Sweet
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: We posit a continuum of modes of governance, anchored at the poles by intergovernmental and supranational politics. Movement from intergovernmental politics toward the supranational pole implies the increasing importance of three factors in EU policymaking: EU rules, EU organizations, and transnational society. We propose that an increase in one of the three factors creates conditions that favor growth in the other two. We also offer a theory as to what drives initial movement toward supranational governance: increasing levels of cross-border transactions and communications by societal actors will increase the perceived need for European-level rules, coordination, and dispute resolution mechanisms. The theory provides a coherent answer to the question of why integration proceeds faster in some domains than in others. We expect movement toward supranational governance in sectors where the intensity and value of cross-border transactions is rising.
Topic:: Government and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

58592. From Free Trade to Supranational Polity: The European Court and Integration

Author:: Alec Stone Sweet and James A. Caporaso
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: In this paper, we propose a dynamic theory of legal integration, test the model quantitatively, and then cross-check it by way of process tracing. We show that transnational exchange, litigation, and the production of Euro-rules have evolved interdependently, and argue that this interdependence provokes and reinforces the spillover effects that partly drive the construction of supranational governance. In case studies of the impact of the legal system on outcomes in two areas, the free movement of goods and European social provisions, we show that our model outperforms the dominant framework for understanding how the EC legal system operates - intergovernmentalism. In each of these areas, the data show that the legal system functions to reduce member-state government control over policy outcomes, and to enhance the influence of supranational institutions, national judges, and private actors.
Topic:: Government, International Law, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

58593. The Institutional Terrain of the European Union

Author:: Neil Fligstein and Jason McNichol
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: One of the central issues in making sense of the European Union is the question of the degree to which it functions as an autonomous state. One pole of this debate conceives of the EU as a supranational entity while the other argues that it remains an intergovernmental bargain. Here, we propose to analyze the EU in terms of the structuring of its policy domains. 12 of 17 domains appear organized by nongovernmental organizations. We conclude that while the governments retain direct control over important parts of the EU, they have allowed most policy domains at the EU level to become autonomous.
Topic:: International Relations and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

58594. The Path to European Integration

Author:: Paul Pierson
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Many European and American observers of the EC have criticized "intergovernmentalist" accounts for exaggerating the extent of member state control over the process of European integration. This essay seeks to ground these criticisms in a historical institutionalist" account that stresses the need to study European integration as a political process which unfolds over time. Such a perspective highlights the limits of member state control over long-term institutional development. Losses of control result from member state preoccupation with short-term concerns, the ubiquity of unintended consequences, and processes that "lock in" past decisions and make reassertions of member state authority difficult. Brief examination of the evolution of EC social policy suggests the limitations of treating the EC as an institutional "instrument" facilitating collective action among sovereign states. It is more useful to view integration as a path-dependent process that has produced a fragmented but still discernible multi-tiered European polity.
Topic:: International Organization, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: America and Europe

58595. Emergence of a Supranational Telecommunications Regime

Author:: Wayne Sandholtz
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: The patchwork of national telecommunications monopolies in the EU was incapable of meeting a rapidly growing need on the part of societal actors for efficient, technologically advanced, cross-border telecommunications. The Commission mobilized various transnational actors -- equipment manufacturers, business users, providers of new services, suppliers of alternative infrastructures -- to support its plans for EU-level liberalization and harmonization. Whereas in a first phase the Commission acted as a source of initiatives and models for states whose policies were in flux, the second phase saw a dramatic shift in the nature of governance. Employing its powers under Article 90 of the Treaty (which does not require Council approval), the Commission set out to abolish national monopolies in telecoms equipment, services, and, finally, infrastructures. The telecoms case thus supports three of the project's central propositions: that societal transactions drive movement toward supranational governance; that changes in EU rules, organizations, and transnational society are interlinked; and that member states do not always control these processes of institutionalization.
Topic:: Government, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Europe

58596. Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency

Author:: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Everyone studing EMU cites the theory of Optimum Currency Areas: whether a country like Sweden should join the currency union depends on such parameters as the extent of Swedish trade with other EU members and the correlation of Sweden's income with that of other members. Few economists have focused on what we consider one of the most interesting aspects of this issue. Trade patterns and income correlation are endogenous. Sweden could fail the OCA criterion for membership today, and yet, if it goes ahead and joins anyway, could, as the result of joining, pass the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) criterion in the future. (Further, even if Sweden does not enter EMU quickly, it will be more likely to satisfy the OCA criteria in the future as a result of its recent accession to the EU.) The few economists who have identified the importance of the endogeneity of trade patterns and income correlation are divided on the nature of the relationship between the two. This is an important empirical question, which may hold the key to the answer regarding whether it is in Sweden's income interest to join EMU. We review the OCA theory, highlighting the role of trade links and income links. Then we discuss and analyze the endogeneity of these parameters. We present econometric evidence suggesting strongly that if trade links between Sweden and the rest of Europe strengthen in the future, then Sweden's income will become more highly correlated with European income in the future (not less correlated, as some have claimed). This has important implications for the OCA criterion. It means that a naïve examination of historical data gives a biased picture of the effects of EMU entry on Sweden. It also means that EMU membership is more likely to make sense for Sweden in the future than it does today.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe and Sweden

58597. The European Commission's Ability to Act under European Competition Law: The Example of Telecommunications and Electricity Policy

Author:: Susanne K. Schmidt
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: European competition law allocates far-reaching competences to the European Commission. The paper asks for the conditions under which the Commission may use these rights against the member states, focusing on the most powerful provision - the right of the Commission under Article 90 to issue directives by itself in those cases where member-state governments have allocated specific rights to undertakings that conflict with the Treaty's rules. In addition the Commission may pursue Treaty violations on a case-by-case basis. In European telecommunications policy the Commission has used its powers rather successfully, with all liberalization decisions being based on Article 90. But for European electricity policy the Commission has shrunk away from using these powers in favor of initiating council legislation. The paper analyzes the conditions of the Commission's ability to act under European competition law in a multi-level framework, drawing among others on a principal-agent approach.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Government, International Law, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Europe

58598. Legitimate Rule in the European Union

Author:: Frank Schimmelfennig
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Two seemingly contradictory trends dominate the European debate over legitimate rule. On the one hand, there appears to be no ideologically viable alternative to liberal democracy following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc. On the other, the rapid progress of European integration has triggered an intense public debate over the European Union's "legitimacy deficit" and active popular opposition in many Western European countries. This paper asks whether these two seemingly contradictory developments can be reconciled. It argues that they can once it is recognized that the modern inter-state system is undergoing profound change. State sovereignty is being undermined by the trans-nationalization of foreign policy and the inter-nationalization of governance. In particular, the European Union has crossed the border from horizontal (or anarchical) interstate cooperation to vertical (or hierarchical) policy making in a multi-level political system in which states are but one level of the policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, International Organization, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Europe

58599. The Revival of the Nation-State?

Author:: Susanne Lutz
Publication Date:: 12-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: The debate on economic 'globalization' suggests that the blurring of territorial boundaries shifts the power relations between nation-states and domestic market constituencies in favour of the latter. States have lost autonomy since policies are increasingly formulated in supranational or global arenas. Market actors may use their wider choice of geographic location in order to lobby for low regulated market environments. The paper seeks to differentiate this common view considerably. It argues that economic internationalization weakens the capacity of domestic market actors to engage in self-binding agreements that formerly had solved regulatory problems. Networks of interstate collaboration in turn lack the ability to monitor and enforce negotiated agreements. Both developments impose new duties of market supervision on the nation-state. Empirical reference is drawn from the stock exchange sector that went through a process of transformation which has led to an enhanced role of the nation-state in the model of sectoral governance.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Government, and International Trade and Finance

58600. Mending the Ozone Layer: The Role of Transnational Policy Networks

Author:: Reiner Grundmann
Publication Date:: 12-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Successful international cooperation is a puzzling problem for social scientists. The ozone layer has been subject to both international treaties and domestic legislation. It is one of the foremost success stories in international relations, yet insufficiently understood. In this paper I argue that existing approaches - including the sophisticated and highly acclaimed epistemic community approach - do not take the underlying theoretical problems seriously enough. Departing from the epistemic community approach, I propose a framework for a network analysis combining interests, knowledge and power into a coherent model, which is derived from this case but can apply to similar cases sharing similar characteristics. It is argued that one of two rivaling policy networks gained hegemony over the other, mainly by winning over allies from the competing network. Ultimately this contributed to the competing network's breakdown.
Topic:: International Relations, Environment, and International Cooperation

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS