Journal: - CIAO Search Results

58201. United States -- Economic Slowdown?

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: In recent weeks, economic data has produced conflicting signals about the strength of domestic demand within the US economy. A majority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believes that growth will decelerate and that only a small tightening of monetary policy will be necessary in the short term. However, the Federal Reserve has consistently underestimated domestic demand, and there are signs that the economy is still buoyant. Moreover, with improving economic prospects in Europe and Asia, the external forces encouraging lower US interest rates are likely to be reversed. The combination of these factors could put pressure on the Fed to tighten further.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Asia

58202. Kosovo—New Dawn for an Ethical Foreign Policy?

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The success of NATO in forcing the Serbian army to quit Kosovo has led some western leaders, notably the UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, to espouse a new 'moral' emphasis in foreign policy. While a complete abandonment of self–interest for ethics can be dismissed, there are important new factors affecting the conduct of international affairs, which vary in regional applicability.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

58203. Iran — Protest Aftermath

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Despite last week's crackdown on pro-reform demonstrations, there is still considerable momentum behind President Mohamed Khatami's political liberalisation drive. While the democratisation movement may have suffered a short-term setback and is likely to encounter further opposition from right-wing clerics, Khatami's reform coalition remains in place and is still likely to be buoyed by next year's parliamentary election results. Nonetheless, the president needs quickly to reassert his commitment to change in the run-up to the election.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

58204. The American Economy: Sustaining Growth with Opportunity

Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: From the June 1999 American Assembly of the same name, the report focuses on the issues of productivity, income inequality, and the aging of the baby boom generation.

58205. Peacekeeping and Intervention in the Former Yugoslavia: Broader Implications of the Regional Case

Author:: Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: The aims of this research report are: First, to substantiate the meaning of the terms "intervention" and "peacekeeping" in the cases of Bosnia and Kosovo and how this may influence the broader interpretation of these activities in the post-Cold War period. Second, by learning from intervention and peacekeeping, as well as from conflict prevention and post-conflict rehabilitation in former Yugoslavia, to draft the prerequisites of a fundamentally new and more effective approach to international legal regulation of international relations, including to the timely management of regional conflicts. Third, to present some of the other interests beyond the moral and humanitarian ones that motivated the intervention, the peacekeeping and the strenuous peace building efforts in the post-Dayton and the post-Kosovo periods. The realisation of these tasks may facilitate theoretical and political work for shaping a more secure post-Cold War world.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Humanitarian Intervention, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, and Balkans

58206. Evaluating the Post-Cold War Policy of the United States

Author:: Jonathan Dean
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: Ambassador Jonathan Dean, Adviser on International Security Issues, Union of Concerned Scientists, presentation to the PDA symposium Ten Years After the Wall: Trends in post-Cold War U.S. Security Policy held at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 11 November 1999.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

58207. Islam In Economic Organizations

Author:: Ayşe Buğra
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This project approaches the political economy of Islamic resurgence in Turkey by exploring different uses of Islam as a strategic resource. The study is organized in five parts: The first section situates Islamic resurgence in its international and domestic context and shows that Political Islam in Turkey derives its strength largely from its ability to respond to the challenges of the current environment. The second section looks at the manifestations of Islam in business life through an analysis of a) MÜSİAD (The Association of Independent Industrialists and Businessmen) that could successfully bring together a large number of enterprises of different sizes located in different geographical regions of the country, and b) special financial institutions as well as other, more informal arrangements used to generate investment funds on the basis of "relations of trust among the believers". In the third section, marketing strategies directed to Muslim consumers are explored through an analysis of certain advertising agencies and TV channels either owned by sect affiliated groups or known by their closeness to Political Islam represented by RP/FP. In the fourth section, the development of the labor union confederation Hak-Is, an important element in the RP/FP constituency, is discussed. Finally, the conclusion presents a summary of the findings. The findings of the study in these areas suggest that what could be called the economic world of Islam in Turkey is formed by networks of social relations which do not constitute a coherent whole, but appear as separate power blocs which try to reach those groups that feel alienated form the secular westernized political and economic establishment for the generation of investment of funds, for the marketing of specialized products, or in organized interest articulation and representation by business associations and labor unions.
Topic:: Economics, Islam, Political Economy, Business, and Labor Unions
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

58208. India and Pakistan’s Fissile Material and Nuclear Weapons Inventory, end of 1998

Author:: David Albright
Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: Estimating the size of India and Pakistan’s inventory of separated weapon-grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU) has become more difficult following their nuclear tests in May, 1998. Both countries treat these numbers as highly classified, partly because such estimates provide a direct indication of the number of nuclear weapons they possess. In the case of Pakistan, what can be surmised is that it has resumed full-scale production of HEU, following a declared moratorium on such production since 1991. Abdul Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan’s uranium enrichment program, announced soon after the Pakistani tests that his country had never stopped making HEU. Although his comment has been greeted skeptically, it indicates that Pakistan may have resumed making weapon-grade uranium well before its tests in May, 1998.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Uranium, and Plutonium
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and India

58209. Conflict Prevention in the Baltic States: The OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

Author:: Rob Zaagman
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:: The importance of national minority questions has long been recognised by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and this organisation has dealt with them extensively. Initially overshadowed by the East-West stand-off, minority issues were framed exclusively in terms of individual human rights, in particular the rights of persons belonging to national minorities. In “post-Wall” Europe, however, the explosive potential of many of them —e.g., in Yugoslavia and the Caucasus—became all too apparent. It also became clear that in this new era international violence would be mainly a consequence of domestic conflicts. Moreover, soon after the break-up of the Soviet Union the issue of the ethnic Russians outside the Russian Federation became an important factor in international relations in the OSCE area. As a result, minority issues are now mainly seen from the angle of conflict prevention, although this does include the continued pursuit of the implementation of human rights. The importance the OSCE attaches to minority issues as problems of peace and security is reflected most prominently in the office of the High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM) which was established in 1992 to prevent violent ethnic conflict. Equally, it finds its reflection in the mandates of most, if not all, of the long-term missions the OSCE has established over the years, of which inter-ethnic issues are the main and sometimes exclusive component. These developments fit in the increased emphasis the OSCE has been putting on conflict prevention, playing the role of an impartial, non-coercive third party. Against this background, the tense inter-ethnic relations in Estonia and Latvia were addressed early on by the OSCE. Even though no inter-ethnic violence had taken place, a number of factors made for a volatile mix in both Baltic states: firstly, the existence of domestic tensions between a large minority of mainly Russians without citizenship who had to get used to postSoviet realities and a majority determined to preserve and strengthen its own identity; and secondly, increasing international tensions because of the active interest which neighbouring Russia, mainly for geopolitical reasons, was taking in the condition of its kinfolk in Estonia and Latvia. By contrast, these factors were absent in the third Baltic state, Lithuania. As analysed in the following, the situations in Estonia and Latvia were typically cases for which the OSCE High Commissioner had been established. They demonstrate the extent to which international involvement can keep domestic conflicts tractable—by helping the parties to devise policies and positions which avoid an escalation of disputes and possibly irreconcilable differences—and thus at the same time prevent the build-up of international conflict potential. They are also showcases for the specific approach the OSCE High Commissioner has developed in dealing with tense inter-ethnic situations. Although for reasons of space the main emphasis of this paper will be on Estonia, it should be realised that many similar issues are at stake in Latvia.
Topic:: Security, Minorities, Conflict, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States

58210. The Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Minority Language Policies: Case Studies on Wales, Ireland and the Basque Country

Author:: François Grin and Francois Vaillancourt
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:: The main contribution of the monograph is to demonstrate that it is possible to assess the output and costs of various language policies in such a way as to allow an explicit evaluation and ranking in terms of their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. To our knowledge, this study is the first of its kind, because it stresses the role of common units of measurement in order to make it possible to compare policies. We have therefore attempted to develop an approach different from that adopted in many existing discussions of the implementation of language policies. Such discussions often focus on the targets chosen (sometimes elaborating on targets put forward in earlier policy documents), and on the specific measures adopted to meet these targets; sometimes they offer a descriptive presentation of the effects of such measures. For example, a language planning office may set, as a target, the increase in the level of minority language skills of all teachers and school administrators in a particular region, whether they do or do not work in an establishment which uses the minority language as a medium of instruction. The authorities can then adopt corresponding measures, such as the legal requirement that all schoolteachers meet certain proficiency levels in the minority language. If some survey, five years on, confirms that the average competence level of schoolteachers in the minority language has risen, this will be a satisfactory result, but a moderately surprising one; at most, it would suggest that the “technical effectiveness condition” (condition No. 4, Section 6.2) has been met. Such an observation would, however, be of limited help in assessing whether this particular measure is effective or cost-effective with respect to a broader end-goal, such as the revitalisation of the minority language.
Topic:: Minorities, Ethnicity, Language, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe, Spain, Ireland, and Wales

58211. Language Policy in Multilingual Switzerland - Overview and Recent Developments

Author:: François Grin
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:: Switzerland is often quoted as a success story for its handling of linguistic and cultural diversity. In this presentation, I will try to assess this success: to what extent is this reputation justified? What are the conditions that have resulted in this very particular way of dealing with diversity in a multilingual state? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the “Swiss model”? Since time and space are too limited to engage in a full-fledged historical, political, sociolinguistic and economic assessment of Swiss quadrilingualism, let alone in a comparative discussion, I will eschew the usual presentation of demo- and sociolinguistic data in favour of a more interpretative approach, with the aim to provide the reader with an analytical, rather than descriptive perspective on Swiss multilingualism today. Much relevant detail will have to be omitted, meaning that this text will concentrate on what I consider to be the essential dimensions of the problem. However, additional information (including an array of relevant figures) can be found in the references listed at the end of this paper. This paper is organised as follows. In Section 2, I review the historical foundations of Swiss multilingualism; the corresponding institutional arrangements are presented in Section 3; Section 4 is devoted to a discussion of the current challenges that Switzerland is confronted with in its handling of linguistic diversity.
Topic:: Multiculturalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, Diversity, and Language
Political Geography:: Europe and Switzerland

58212. Israel's National Security and the Myth of Exceptionalism

Author:: Gil Merom
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: GIL MEROM challenges the Israeli belief in national security exceptionalism. He compares strategic and moral dimensions of Israeli security with those of other states and concludes that the notion of Israel's national security exceptionalism is unfounded.
Topic:: National Security, Politics, and Exceptionalism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

58213. The United States and South Korean Democratization

Author:: James Fowler
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: JAMES FOWLER draws on interviews with State Department officials and recently declassified documents to analyze the role of the United States in South Korea's democratization, concluding that U.S. public pressure on the Korean government played a critical role in determining the timing of the transition.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: South Korea and United States of America

58214. Defining Moment: The Threat and Use of Force in American Foreign Policy

Author:: Barry M. Blechman and Tamara Coffman Wittes
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: BARRY M. BLECHMAN and TAMARA COFMAN WITTES examine the uses of military threats and military interventions in the Bush and first Clinton administrations. Based on case studies and interviews with U.S. decision makers, they conclude that domestic and international political constraints are preventing U.S. leaders from making threats decisive enough to persuade foreign leaders to comply with U.S. demands.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Military Intervention, Bill Clinton, and George H. W. Bush
Political Geography:: United States of America

58215. The Escalation of U.S. Immigration Control in the Post-NAFTA Era

Author:: Peter Andreas
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: PETER ANDREAS examines the rapid escalation of U.S. immigration control efforts along our southwest border in recent years. He argues that enhanced border policing has less to do with actual deterrence and more to do with projecting an image of order and coping with the deepening contradictions of economic integration.
Topic:: Immigration, NAFTA, Borders, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

58216. The quiet payoff: Mafia electoral support and policy inaction

Author:: Alessio Carrozzo Magli, Giovanni Righetto, and Antonio Schiavone
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: Organized crime groups are known to provide electoral support to politicians, but the rewards they obtain in return remain poorly understood. We develop a theoretical framework suggesting that modern mafia support hinges on parties’ willingness to weaken anti-mafia policies, specifically by neglecting the reallocation of confiscated mafia assets. Judicial records indicate that when these assets remain unassigned, crime families can quietly repossess them, turning policy inertia into a hidden payoff. Using data from Sicilian municipalities between 1992 and 2022, we first detect vote manipulation in tightly contested majoritarian races—particularly in smaller towns—indicating strategic vote buying by the mafia. A regression discontinuity design, restricted to comparable municipalities quasi-randomly sorted around the threshold, reveals that narrowly won Forza Italia victories trigger a sharp fall in asset reallocations only within mafia controlled areas. To capture intensive-margin variation in the vote-buying deal, we exploit the mafia’s abrupt 1987 withdrawal of support from the Christian Democrats. Municipalities suffering larger DC vote losses—our proxy for historical mafia vote-buying capacity-experience steeper post-election cuts in asset reallocations, but only during Berlusconi’s governments.
Topic:: Elections, Political Science, Organized Crime, and Mafia
Political Geography:: Europe, Italy, Global Focus, and Sicily

58217. Opinion: Netanyahu, A Palestinian State, and Israeli Security Reassessed

Author:: Jerome Slater
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: In one of our occasional opinion essays, JEROME SLATER discusses the arguments for and against a Palestinian state as the solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict. He argues that an appropriately structured Palestinian state would enhance rather than threaten Israel's national security.
Topic:: Security, Self Determination, History, and Zionism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

58218. The Internet and Political Control in Singapore

Author:: Garry Rodan
Publication Date:: 03-1998
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: GARRY RODAN investigates the political implications of the Internet in Singapore, where authorities have embarked on an ambitious attempt to restrain the liberalizing impact of the new technology. His findings contradict popular expectations of the Internet necessarily aiding the erosion of authoritarian rule.
Topic:: Politics, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Internet, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: Singapore and Southeast Asia

58219. The Politics of Reforming Social Security

Author:: R. Douglas Arnold
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: R. DOUGLAS ARNOLD analyzes the political difficulties in reforming Social Security in the absence of a short-term crisis. He argues that the chief political problem is to find a way to impose short-term costs on current taxpayers when the benefits of advance funding are exclusively long-term for future retires.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, and Social Security
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

58220. From Our Archives: A New Look at the Impeachment of Andrew Johnson

Author:: Michael Les Benedict
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: MICHAEL LES BENEDICT's interpretation of the impeachment of President Andrew Johnson destroys the conventional textbook wisdom which portrays Johnson as a martyred president unjustifiably pilloried by a vindictive Congress. Benedict shows that the decision to impeach was made reluctantly after a series of presidential actions over the years convinced even the most conservative members of Congress that impeachment was the only means left for defending their constitutional prerogatives.
Topic:: History, Impeachment, and Andrew Johnson
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

58221. Creating a Disaster: NATO’s Open Door Policy

Author:: Robert J. Art
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: ROBERT J. ART argues that an open door membership policy will destroy NATO and that there is a better alternative to create a security structure for Europe.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Alliance, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

58222. Courting Disaster: An Expanded NATO vs. Russia and China

Author:: Bruce Russett and Allan Stam
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: BRUCE RUSSETT and ALLAN C. STAM examine the recent decision to expand NATO to include former Soviet satellites. They argue that the further inclusion of Russia would allow NATO to become a most effective tool in managing security threats in the next century.
Topic:: Security, NATO, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

58223. New Perspektives of International and German Development Policy

Author:: Dirk Messner
Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: Remarks on shaping globalization: Perspectives of development cooperation and elements of global governance (Dirk Messner); Old Wine in New Skins: Some critical comments on the UNDP Reports (Franz Nuscheler); The position of development policy: a functional definition (Adolf Kloke-Lesch).
Topic:: Development, Globalization, Governance, and United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

58224. Shoring Up Military Readiness

Author:: Michael E. OHanlon and Jerre Wilson
Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Today's U.S. military is about one-third smaller and one-third less expensive than it was at the end of the Cold War. Even so, on a unit-by-unit basis it is as good as the U.S. armed forces of Ronald Reagan's presidency. It is far from hollow; its readiness to carry out a wide range of operations from warfighting to peacekeeping to deterrence remains quite good on the whole.
Topic:: Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: United States

58225. Role of the Private Sector: Study Group

Author:: Virginia Haufler
Publication Date:: 11-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The study group addressed four topics: the definition of what we are examining; whether it is a new phenomenon; some of the factors driving it; and the concerns it raises. The goal at this meeting was to set the context for further discussion at the next meeting. Participants stressed that this is an important topic and a timely project. Please note that this summarizes the main points and imposes a certain order on what was in reality a wide-ranging discussion.
Topic:: International Relations, Globalization, Government, and International Political Economy

58226. After the Crisis: The Social Contract and the Middle Class in East Asia

Author:: Nancy Birdsall and Stephan Haggard
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Asian financial crisis put in bold relief two big differences between the Asian and the Western economies. One has been hotly contested, while the other has been virtually ignored.
Topic:: Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: Israel and East Asia

58227. Does U.S. Intervention Overseas Breed Terrorism?: The Historical Record

Author:: Ivan Eland
Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: According to Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, terrorism is the most important threat the United States and the world face as the 21st century begins. High-level U.S. officials have acknowledged that terrorists are now more likely to be able to obtain and use nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons than ever before.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

58228. The Case for a Russian Currency Board System

Author:: Steve H. Hanke
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The devaluation of the Russian ruble this year was predictable, especially considering Russia's poor monetary history. State-manipulated money has been a Russian hallmark since the time of Peter the Great and shows that the country's money problems are endemic and do not depend on who controls the central bank. Czarist, Soviet, and post-Soviet governments have used the central bank printing press to finance deficit spending, resulting in high inflation, confiscation of savings, capital controls, or a combination of the three.
Topic:: Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

58229. Time to Terminate the ESF and the IMF

Author:: Anna J. Schwartz
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund are undemocratic institutions unaccountable for their actions. Their current functions have little to do with their original missions. The ESF is used by the executive branch to circumvent Congress in the provision of foreign aid. Its foreign exchange interventions have, in any event, always been wasteful and ineffective at controlling the relative price of the U.S. dollar. The IMF has also been used to provide massive bailouts in the cases of Mexico in 1995 and of Asian countries since 1997. Defenders of the IMF as an international lender of last resort are misinformed since the IMF does not and cannot serve that purpose. Both institutions should be abolished, not reformed, because they are not needed to resolve currency crises and they preclude superior solutions.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, and Mexico

58230. Perspectives From Four Continents: Solving the Global Public Pensions Crisis

Author:: Cato Institute
Publication Date:: 04-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: On December 8-9 the Cato Institute and The Economist cosponsored a conference on the global public pensions crisis at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre in London. Among the speakers were Michael Tanner, director of the Cato Project on Social Security Privatization; Clive Crook, deputy editor of The Economist; Carlos Boloña, former finance minister of Peru; Mukul Asher of the University of Singapore; and Peter Ferrara, chief economist at Americans for Tax Reform and an associate policy analyst at the Cato Institute. Excerpts from their remarks follow.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: London

58231. America's Maligned and Misunderstood Trade Deficit

Author:: Daniel T. Griswold
Publication Date:: 04-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: America's annual trade deficit, already large by historical standards, could reach a new record in 1998, fueling protectionist sentiment in Congress. Political fallout from the trade deficit numbers could impede efforts to reduce barriers to trade in the United States and abroad. Contrary to popular conception, the trade deficit is not caused by unfair trade practices abroad or declining industrial competitiveness at home. Trade deficits reflect the flow of capital across international borders, flows that are determined by national rates of savings and investment. This renders trade policy an ineffective tool for reducing a nation's trade deficit.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

58232. The Specter of Pervasiveness: Pacifica, New Media, and Freedom of Speech

Author:: Jonathan D. Wallace
Publication Date:: 02-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Under the legal doctrine of pervasiveness, media such as television and radio get much less protection from censorship than do print media. The Supreme Court should reject the pervasiveness doctrine as a dangerously broad and vague excuse for speech regulation. If the doctrine applies to any medium, it could arguably apply to all media. The pervasiveness doctrine thus threatens to curtail the First Amendment's protection of freedom of speech.
Topic:: Government, Industrial Policy, Political Economy, and Science and Technology

58233. Europarliament and Environmental Leglislation: The Case of Chemicals

Author:: George Tsebelis and Anastassios Kalandrakis
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: The paper studies the impact of the EP on legislation on chemical pollutants introduced under the Cooperation procedure. A series of formal and informal analyses have predicted from significant impact of the EP, to limited impact (only in the second round) to no impact at all. Through the analysis of Parliamentary debates as well as Commission and Parliamentary committee documents, we are able to assess the significance of different amendments, as well as the degree to which they were introduced in the final decision of the Council. Our analysis indicates first that less than 30% of EP amendments are insignificant, while 15% are important or very important; second, that the probability of acceptance of an amendment is the same regardless of its significance. Further analysis indicates two sources of bias of aggregate EP statistics: several amendments are complementary (deal with the same issue in different places of the legal document), and a series of amendments that are rejected as inadmissible because they violate the legal basis of the document or the germainess requirement) are included in subsequent pieces of legislation. We calculate the effect of these biases in our sample, and find that official statistics underestimate Parliamentary influence by more that 6 percentage points (49% instead of 56% in our sample). Finally, we compare a series of observed strategic behaviors of different actors (rapporteurs, committees, floor, Commission) to different expectations generated by the literature.
Topic:: Environment, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

58234. The Future of the Public Sector--The Challenges for Policy Research in a Changing Environment

Author:: George Galster
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: As we approach the 21st century, the public seems increasingly disenchanted with the record of government, and less and less inclined to believe in the value of empirical analysis as a guide to action. Evidence of the loss of confidence in the public sector's ability to operate effectively and efficiently is found in opinion polls, falling rates of electoral participation, and the rising influence of "anti-government" politicians. In such an environment, it is useful to reflect on the historical role that applied social science has played in the public sector and the role it might play in the future.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: United States

58235. Immigrants in New York: Their Legal Status, Incomes, and Taxes

Author:: Jeffrey S. Passel and Rebecca L. Clark
Publication Date:: 04-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: This report provides essential demographic and economic information on legal immigrants residing in New York State and addresses significant shortcomings in the existing data for immigrants and in analyses of fiscal impacts of legal immigrants. It focuses on four major issues: the size of the legal immigrant populations; the characteristics of legal status groups, including both legal and undocumented populations; the incomes and taxes paid by immigrant populations and natives; and the economic adaptation of immigrants and their descendants.
Topic:: Government, International Law, and Migration
Political Geography:: United States and New York

58236. The Number and Cost of Immigrants on Medicaid: National and State Estimates

Author:: Leighton Ku and Bethany Kessler
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: This work was conducted under Subtask 2.2.12 of HHS Contract HHS-100-94-1009. Many constructive comments were provided by staff of the Department of Health and Human Services, including Linda Sanches, David Nielsen, Penelope Pine and Bob Tomlinson. We gratefully acknowledge data and advice made available by Ron North and Roger Buchanan of the Health Care Financing Administration and Charles Scott of the Social Security Administration. Many colleagues at the Urban Institute offered useful advice or data, including Brian Bruen, Rebecca Clark, Teresa Coughlin, Linda Giannarelli, Jeff Passel, Karen Tumlin and Wendy Zimmerman. All opinions expressed are the authors' and should not be interpreted as opinions of the Urban Institute or the Department of Health and Human Services.
Topic:: Government and Migration
Political Geography:: United States

58237. Information Technology and Economic Development: An Introduction to the Research Issues

Author:: Matti Pohjola
Publication Date:: 11-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: There is substantial evidence that new information technologies are in many ways transforming the operations of modern economies. More than half of employees use a computer at work in the most advanced industrial countries. About 10 per cent of the value of all private investment in fixed non-residential capital is devoted to computers and peripheral equipment in the United States and some other economies. This share goes up to 25 per cent when investment in information processing equipment is included. Nevertheless, all spending on information technology, including hardware, software and services, does not amount to more than 3-4 per cent of nominal GDP in these countries. The share is, however, increasing rapidly, indicating that a steady state has not yet been reached.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

58238. Computers and Labour Markets: International Evidence

Author:: Francis Kramarz
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The rapid diffusion of computers has widely changed the consequences of computer use on the labour market. While at the beginning of the eighties knowledge of computers was an obvious advantage in a career, this same knowledge is now so commonplace that the inability to use these tools is widely seen in many industries as a professional handicap. In relation to such drastic transformations, changes in the North American wage structure during the eighties in favour of the better educated have been interpreted by many analysts as evidence of skill-biased technical change. Evidence outside the US, and in particular in Europe, seems to support the idea that similar transformations affected most other labour markets.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

58239. Underdevelopment, Transition and Reconstruction in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Tony Addison
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Reconstructing Africa's war damaged economies is an urgent task. This is especially so in a group of countries - Angola, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, and Mozambique - which must also complete their economic and political transition from state socialism. Somalia, which shares their common history, must eventually be rebuilt. All of these countries must address their deep problems of underdevelopment and poverty. The challenges are therefore three-fold: to overcome underdevelopment, to make the transition from state socialism, and to reconstruct economies and societies.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Somalia, Angola, Eritrea, and Guinea-Bissau

58240. Resource Abundance and Economic Development: Improving the Performance of Resource-Rich Countries

Author:: Richard M. Auty
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Since the 1960s the resource-rich developing economies have under-performed compared with the resource-deficient economies. This paper explains why and outlines the reforms that are required in order to achieve environmentally and socially sustainable resource-rich development. It argues that structural change in the resource-rich countries causes the tradeable sector to shrink vis-à-vis the nontradeables sector (that includes protected manufacturing) in a manner that is not sustainable. This adverse trend in the production structure is associated with policies to close the economy and create discretionary rents behind protective barriers that result in the cumulative misallocation of resources. The build-up of produced capital and skills is slower than in the successful resource-deficient countries. Overall, the inherently slower and less egalitarian economic growth trajectory of the resource-rich countries is intensified and the end result is usually a growth collapse. The collapse causes all forms of capital, including institutional, social and natural capital, to run down. Economic reform is therefore protracted and it may take in excess of one generation to restore sustainable rapid growth. The adverse features of resource-rich development tend to be more pronounced in the smaller countries. They are also heightened where the resource rents accrue mainly to the central government, as in the mineral economies and in the slow-reforming transition economies. Successful reform requires not only appropriate macro and micro policies, but also the construction of institutions to limit the scope for governments to misallocate resources. Part of the explanation for the superior performance of the resource-deficient countries is that their spartan endowment of natural capital acts as a constraint on government failure by placing a premium on the need to nurture scarce resources, including skills, institutions and social capital, and to achieve an efficient allocation of capital.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, Government, and International Political Economy

58241. The Role of Knowledge and Capital in Economic Growth

Author:: Sergio Rebelo
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Starting from the celebrated neoclassical (Solow) model of economic growth, this paper discusses new ideas in growth theory focussing on how to make sustained growth feasible. It first reviews models that broadened the notion of capital to include human capital and the state of technology. These extensions of the neoclassical theory are not very satisfying at a descriptive level because productivity growth is associated with either human or physical capital accumulation in a way that does not interact with the invention of new technologies.
Topic:: Economics and Science and Technology

58242. The Basel Convention And Transboundary Movements Of Hazardous Wastes

Author:: Jonathan Krueger
Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The international community is increasingly turning to the use of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) to solve problems of global environmental degradation and transboundary pollution. One of the most important of these MEAs is the 1989 Basel Convention dealing with transboundary movements of hazardous waste. The Convention has been instrumental in helping to eliminate the dumping of industrialized countries' hazardous wastes on developing countries. However, the development of the regime has been slow and it is now tackling the more controversial issue of regulating 'recyclable' hazardous wastes. This briefing paper provides a short guide to the development and current status of the international effort to manage transboundary movements of hazardous wastes.
Topic:: Environment and Globalization

58243. Renewable Energy Investment and Technology Transfer in Asia

Author:: Tim Forsyth
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: This workshop was arranged by the RIIA under the sponsorship of the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) of Japan to explore ways of increasing international investment in renewable energy technology in Asia. Enhancing renewable energy investment is clearly relevant to global strategies to mitigate climate change. However, the two debates on climate change policy and renewable energy investment have largely remained separate, and characterized by tendencies to discuss large-scale global flows of energy and investment on the one hand, and local development-oriented practice on the other. The workshop attempted to integrate these two debates, and therefore form part of a growing body of knowledge to inform the current climate change negotiations with practical options available to small and large businesses. The workshop had three main aims: to identify the implications of the Kyoto Protocol for international renewable energy investment; to define technology transfer and identify how it may be increased for renewable energy in South and Southeast Asia; to assess what public and private forms of finance could be sought to ensure the success of renewable energy businesses in South and Southeast Asia. The workshop was attended by some 30 industrialists, financiers and renewable energy specialists from around the world. This paper is a summary of the proceedings. In order to encourage frank exchange, the workshop was held under Chatham House Rule of confidentiality and anonymity, so individual speakers are not named.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

58244. Assessing South Africa's Growth Strategy

Author:: Jesmond Blumenfeld
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: As South Africa approaches its second inclusive elections in 1999, the government's economic record will come under increasing scrutiny. Against widespread expectations of a post-apartheid transformation in economic performance, the country's achievements in output, investment and employment have been profoundly disappointing. The adoption of a new, and more market- and investor-friendly, macroeconomic strategy in 1996 boosted confidence by promising major structural and policy reforms, but this has since been undermined by failure to meet most of the strategy's targets. In this Briefing Paper, Jesmond Blumenfeld analyses the origins, content and outcomes of the strategy as well as the economic and political dilemmas that it has created.
Topic:: Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: South Africa and New Delhi

58245. Media Coverage of Parliament

Author:: Ralph Negrine
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The last decade of the 20th century has apparently seen a profound change in the way in which European media handle their reporting of the political process. It is a process which marks an end to the formality and sense of obligation with which parliamentary debates and the activities of individual politicians have traditionally been treated. It has been paralleled by far-reaching changes in the ways in which politicians seek to influence their electorate. This briefing paper summarizes the findings of a comprehensive study that attempts to quantify what these changes in presentation of news and information might really mean.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

58246. Sierra Leone: Tracing The Genesis Of A Controversy

Author:: Abiodun Alao
Publication Date:: 06-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Prior to the recent controversy over the transfer of arms, little international attention was devoted to Sierra Leone. Even its civil war, which is at the root of the matter, did not attract any significant attention outside West Africa, despite the fact that it had claimed nearly 50,000 lives. Although its enormous diamond deposits have always attracted some interest, this has been limited to private companies and individual entrepreneurs. Many Sierra Leoneans believe that had there been sustained concern about the predicament of their country, the entire arms controversy might have been avoided. This briefing paper does not, however, attempt to delve into the complexities surrounding the sale of arms to Sierra Leone and deals only tangentially with the role of mercenaries that has been the subject of so much scrutiny. Rather, it traces the major events leading to the civil war that began in March 1991, bringing with it immense suffering for this impoverished nation. This is a tale of intrigue and power struggles that has involved most of the West African region, and has allowed unscrupulous actors from as far afield as South Africa, Britain and the United States to dabble in the affairs of this country. It is a salutary lesson in the lack of concern about the fate of small nations in the post-Cold War era.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and South America

58247. Algeria In Crisis

Author:: George Joffé
Publication Date:: 06-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The current situation in Algeria is the direct result of a crisis that developed in the wake of the country-wide riots in 1988 and appeared to have been resolved by political and economic reform up to 1992. Despite a brief period of political liberalization — which, in reality was unsuccessfully manipulated by the regime in power to guarantee its own survival — Algeria has been in the grip of a virtual civil war for the past five years. In these circumstances, the behaviour of the regime and of its clandestine opposition have become parallel experiences, despite the gestures towards renewed democratization made in the past two years. The reality for the vast majority of Algerians — with figures for civilian deaths to date ranging from 50,000 to 120,000— is one of constant fear, both of arbitrary arrest and worse from the authorities and of summary and terminal justice from the clandestine opposition. For these circumstances to be properly appreciated, therefore, some knowledge of the events leading up to the contemporary situation is necessary.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Algeria and Hiroshima

58248. The Basel Convention

Author:: Jonathan Krueger
Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The international community is increasingly turning to the use of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) to solve problems of global environmental degradation and transboundary pollution. One of the most important of these MEAs is the 1989 Basel Convention dealing with transboundary movements of hazardous waste. The Convention has been instrumental in helping to eliminate the dumping of industrialized countries' hazardous wastes on developing countries. However, the development of the regime has been slow and it is now tackling the more controversial issue of regulating 'recyclable' hazardous wastes. This briefing paper provides a short guide to the development and current status of the international effort to manage transboundary movements of hazardous wastes.
Topic:: Environment, International Organization, and Science and Technology

58249. The U.K. and Japan

Author:: Haruko Satoh
Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Among the now G–8 countries, perhaps the most stable political relationship in the past decade or so has been between Britain and Japan. While the two countries do not necessarily rank high in each other's foreign policy priorities, their leaders have always made sure publicly to endorse the growing ties in strong and positive language. Prime Minister Tony Blair used the occasion of his official visit to Tokyo this January to echo Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's own positive views of the relationship, expressed to Blair at the G–8 summit in Denver. To Hashimoto's 'Britain is a special partner to Japan', Blair confirmed that UK–Japan relations were 'as strong as ever', in line with the remarks of his predecessors, which had ranged from a 'dynamic, plain-speaking partnership', 'strategic partnership' in the post-Cold War era, to 'natural partnership'. Furthermore, compared with Japan's relations with other major European states, specifically France and Germany, the contours of UK–Japan relations seem to stand out more. There is a strong economic relationship between the two. The UK–Japan Action Agenda of September 1996 was the first of its kind to be agreed between Japan and a European state, reflecting Britain's resolve to be the 'outward looking' member in the EU, and to keep ahead in the primarily economic competition for Japanese interest in Europe. Cooperation between the two countries has been credited as the key to success in some post-Cold War multilateral agreements, such as the UN arms register or the recent Kyoto conference on global warming, here reflecting the scope of official cooperation between the two governments. This track record supports the leaders' claims that Britain and Japan are special partners. Nevertheless, there is a sense that the relationship is still bound in the realm of political rhetoric. Neither the positive language nor the track record of achievements can dispel the perception that Europe—Japan relations are the weakest in the trilateral world of Europe, Japan and the United States. The Hague Declaration of 1991 — a document outlining further commitment to cooperation between Japan and the EU — the UK–Japan Action agenda, and the subsequent similar documents between Japan and France or Germany, have only received cursory attention. 2 While UK–Japan relations may be the key to genuinely strengthening Europe—Japan ties, there are issues that need to be addressed to promote further progress.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Japan, United Kingdom, Malaysia, and Netherlands

58250. Iraq Under Sanctions

Author:: Volker Perthes
Publication Date:: 02-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: In the early months of 1998, the outlook for relations between Iraq and the West looked distinctly bleak. The crisis over UN inspections of Iraq's potential to create weapons of mass destruction began in November 1997 with the Iraqi government's attempt to control the make-up of the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) inspection teams on the grounds that the Anglo-American components of them were, in effect, spies came to a head in February 1998 when the United States and Britain insisted on full, unrestricted compliance with all UN sanctions under the threat of military action. Even though Iraq reluctantly acquiesced in Western demands, little thought appeared to be given in American and British planning to what the consequence of such action would be on Iraqis themselves and on Iraqi public opinion.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Law, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

58251. Pipeline Gas In Northeast Asia

Author:: Keun-Wook Paik and Jae-Yong Choi
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The lack of indigenous oil and gas resources in Northeast Asia is a real obstacle to the region's economic development, and the region has paid the price. The importance of the introduction of pipeline gas into Northeast Asia lies not only in diversifying supply sources but also in providing price leverage for the region's consumers. Despite many implementation problems, the Sino-Russian agreement on East Siberian gas and pipeline development laid a firm basis for the introduction of pipeline gas into the region, and this could fundamentally affect the region's energy supply balance in the coming decades. The introduction of pipeline gas will open a new era of multilateral cooperation in the region. It is now no longer a matter of whether but when and how this gas will be introduced. Northeast Asia — comprising China, Russian Asia (Siberia and the Far East), Korea and Japan — forms the world's biggest market for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Out of world trade totalling just over 100 bcm in 1996, 63.8 bcm was imported by Japan and 13 bcm by Korea, together representing 75% of the world total. Given that China is set to import both LNG and pipeline gas in the next decade, there will be further rapid growth in the region's demand for gas. Many questions about the scale of expansion, the introduction of pipeline gas as a part of the expansion, the role of natural gas in power generation, and the establishment of multilateral cooperation for the pipeline development remain unresolved. Nevertheless, recent announcements by CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) of two contracts signed with the Kazakstan government for the development of oilfields for transport via pipeline to western China are a strong signal that the Northeast Asian region is set to witness the introduction of long-distance pipeline oil. In the longer term, these developments may be eclipsed by the development of pipeline gas. This paper briefly reviews the potential gas and oil supply sources to the Northeast Asian region and recent developments, together with the problems that need to be tackled for early implementation of pipeline gas. After presenting the results of a unique survey on the views of both Japanese and Korean companies on the Northeast Asian natural gas market and the development of long-distance pipelines, the paper discusses the implications of such developments.
Topic:: Development and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Japan, China, East Asia, and Northeast Asia

58252. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 1998

Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion, which has become the second longest on record. The coincident indicators show aggregate activity rising at a more moderate pace than GDP's rise of 5.6 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. There is no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

58253. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 1998

Publication Date:: 11-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy with bright prospects in 1999. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising between 2.5 and 3 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The economy shows no evidence of cyclical imbalance.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

58254. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 1998

Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators show the 4th quarter of 1998 starting with a relatively slow pace of growth (compared to the coincident index's rise of rise 3.0 percent and GDP's rise of 3.7 percent, annualized, during the first 3 quarters of 1998. The leading indicators show no serious impediments to moderate, or even strong, economic growth in 1999. There is almost no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

58255. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 1998

Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: Both the leading and coincident indexes held steady, while the lagging index fell 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a slowing, but still healthy economy. The coincident indicators suggest the expansion advanced in the 2 to 2.5 percent range in the 3rd quarter of 1998, compared with constant- dollar GDP showing a 3.3 percent increase (annualized). It is premature to predict a recession based on the leading indicators. The lagging indicators have moderated, giving less reason to worry that cyclical imbalances will soon jeopardize the economy's stability.lances could jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

58256. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 1998

Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a 2.5 to 3.0 percent pace (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The lagging indicators suggest a need to be concerned that cyclical imbalances could jeopardize the economy's stability in 1999.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

58257. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1998

Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a moderating economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at faster pace than the latest GDP figures, but slower than the 4th quarter of 1997 and the 1st quarter of 1998. (The coincident index rose 3.1 percent while GDP rose 1.4 percent, annualized, in the 2nd quarter of 1998). A two-month decline in the leading indicators signals slower growth ahead and only a slight risk of a contraction. The lagging indicators show slight evidence of cyclical imbalances that could jeopardize the economyÕs stability.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

58258. The Yen, the Yuan, and the Asian Currency Crisis Changing Fortune between Japan and China

Author:: C.H. Kwan
Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The currency crisis that started in Thailand in the summer of 1997 was followed by repercussions on the currencies of neighboring countries, culminating in a crisis infecting most countries in East Asia. Japan and China, which have developed strong ties with the rest of Asia through trade and investment, have not been exempted from this contagion. This paper looks at the latest currency crisis in Asia from the perspectives of these two regional giants.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Thailand

58259. Variation of Clinical Judgment in Cases of Hysterectomy in R.O.C, Japan, England, and the United States

Author:: Yumiko Nishimura, Naohiro Mitsutake, Michael McCullough, Barry Uphoff, Annie Woo, and Chang-Yao Hsieh
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Hysterectomy is the most common non-pregnancy-related major surgery performed on women in the United States. Close to 600,000 women in the United States undergo the procedure each year, with annual costs exceeding $5 billion. By age 60, more than one- third of women in the United States have had a hysterectomy.
Topic:: Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and England

58260. Japan's China Perceptions and its Policies in the Alliance with the United States

Author:: Hideo Sato
Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The People's Republic of China is now a major economic and military actor in the international relations of the Asia Pacific region, and thus we cannot afford to ignore China in reviewing the U.S.-Japan alliance. The Chinese economy has been growing rapidly over the past decade and a half, at an annual rate of about 10 percent, and it is expected to sustain a similar pattern of growth for the foreseeable future. Beijing's defense spending has also been increasing every year at a double-digit level for some time. Consequently, China's domestic and foreign policies will from now on significantly influence the course of international relations in this region, and perhaps elsewhere as well.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, China, Beijing, and Asia

58261. Chinese Military Modernization and Asian Security

Author:: Michael Swaine
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: I'll speak on the question of Chinese military defense modernization and its implications for the Asian security environment. I'll try to keep my remarks at a level where we can talk about broader issues and concepts, and the implications of all this for regional evolution in the security environment, U.S. security interests, U.S.-Japan relations, etc. I want to cover four different areas in my remarks.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and Asia

58262. The Origins and Evolution of the Korean-American Alliance: A Japanese Perspective

Author:: Koji Murata
Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper examines the importance of the Korean-American alliance for Japan from a historical perspective. The U.S.-Japan alliance is important for the security of South Korea because it provides logistic support for the U.S. activities on the Korean peninsula. This is obvious if we look into the reasons why the Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation were revised in September 1997. At the same time, the U.S.-ROK alliance is also important for the security of Japan because it functions as a buffer or shield for Japan. Bounded on the north by China and Russia, and only thirty miles from the closest Japanese island, the Korean peninsula is the fulcrum where the major powers' interests in Asia converge. Tokyo is about one hour from Seoul by jet aircraft.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Asia, Tokyo, Korea, and Island

58263. East Asian Urbanization: Patterns, Problems, and Prospects

Author:: Mike Douglass
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Two interwoven processes—urbanization and globalization—circumscribe contemporary social, political, and economic transformations taking place in East Asia. While governments, businesses, and communities are caught up in one of the most intensive and condensed processes of urbanization in world history, the forces propelling much of the expansion of cities and urban networks now operate on an international plane. Urban- oriented investments in production for world markets, global intra-firm commodity trade within transnational corporate networks, and the hyper-circulation of finance capital are fundamental features of what has been summarized as the “local-global” context of development. Urbanization and globalization have become interdependent and mutually reinforcing: the shaping of urban form and the dominant activities within a given city reflect its mode of linkage with globalized circuits of capital; at the same time, these circuits require a structuring of the built environment to create the physical geography of international urban networks needed for real-time decisionmaking on a global scale.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States and Asia

58264. China's Post-Deng Military Leadership: New Faces, New Trends

Author:: David Shambaugh
Publication Date:: 06-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: It is a pleasure to be here at Stanford to discuss China's new military leadership, and to share some preliminary findings from my research on the People's Liberation Army (PLA). One key feature of the new leadership in China today, following the passing of patriarch Deng Xiaoping, are the new faces to be found in the military. The PLA High Command today (see Appendix) is almost entirely new. There has been almost total turnover of the top twenty to thirty military officers in China during the last three years. This includes all the commanders, deputy commanders, and political commissars in all seven military region commands; the General Staff, Logistics, and Political Departments; the two major educational institutions of the PLA, the National Defense University and the Academy of Military Sciences; the Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense and its successor body the general Armaments Department, and other bodies. The Central Military Commission itself has seen more than half of its membership turn over in the last few years. Only the top echelon of the Second Artillery, China's ballistic missile forces, has gone relatively untouched. I anticipate much more personnel turnover and organizational reform in the next few years as the PLA proceeds with its policy of downsizing, upgrading, and streamlining its force structure.
Topic:: Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

58265. The Korean Currency Crisis: What Can We Learn From It?

Author:: Sang-Mok Suh
Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Just like many other crises, the Korean currency crisis came suddenly. In mid–November 1997, headlines in the Korean press consisted mostly of presidential election stories. At that time the presidential race was very close; the Grand National Party candidate, Lee Hoi–Chang, was making a dramatic comeback, while the National Congress for New Politics candidate, Kim Dae–jung, was making his best effort to maintain his narrow lead. Thus, when President Kim Young Sam announced on November 19 his decision to fire key economic policy–makers on the grounds of mismanaging the economy, most Koreans were surprised at the news and questioned the president's motivation. Two days later they were completely shocked to learn that the Korean government was asking the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emergency standby loans because the Korean foreign reserve level was very low at $7.3 billion and most foreign financial institutions were unwilling to roll over their short–term loans to Korea.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Israel, East Asia, and Asia

58266. Benefits and Burdens: The Politically Dominated Economics of U.S. Alliances with Japan and Korea

Author:: Charles Wolf and Michele Zanini
Publication Date:: 04-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Alliances are organizations between or among independent entities that concert to produce “collective goods” for the mutual benefit of alliance members. The statement applies whether the alliances are between or among countries, corporations, universities, research centers, or other institutions. Of course, the nature of the collective goods, as well as the membership in the collectivity, differs across these cases. That the goods (or benefits) are “collective” means that their availability to one alliance member (or their production by any member) implies their availability to the other members of the alliance.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Korea

58267. The Costs and Benefits of Korean Unification

Author:: Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Li-gang Liu
Publication Date:: 03-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Existing estimates of the costs of unification are inadequate for a number of reasons. In this paper we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to calculate South Korean and total peninsular income streams under a variety of unification (and non–unification) scenarios. We find that there are scenarios in which the present discounted value of South Korean income is higher with unification than without it. Although lower income groups in South Korea experience reduced incomes under this scenario, with redistribution of the gains, everyone can be made better off. Indeed, this scenario, which involves relatively low levels of South Korean private investment in the North together with relatively high levels of North–South migration, is also the one which generates the highest level of total peninsular income as well. The latter point is critical in that it suggests that there is no necessary conflict between the economic interests of North and South Koreans after unification.
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Israel, East Asia, and Korea

58268. China's Accession to and Implementation of International Environmental Accords 1978 - 95

Author:: Michel Oksenberg and Elizabeth Economy
Publication Date:: 02-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: China's performance in numerous environmental areas—emission of greenhouse gases, use of ozone-depleting substances, reduction of sulphur dioxide emissions, or exploitation of fishing grounds in the western Pacific—will help determine the success of various global and regional environmental protection efforts. And as the World Bank's recent study Clear Water, Blue Skies: China's Environment in the New Century documents, the quality of life within China will be greatly affected by efforts to protect air, water, and soil, all of which are under heavy assault.
Topic:: Environment and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: China and Asia

58269. Integration on the Basis of Strength: China's Impact on East Asian Security

Author:: Wu Xinbo
Publication Date:: 02-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: China is perhaps the most important variable in East Asian security, not only because of its growing power but also because of the great uncertainty over its future. Therefore, to assess China's impact on regional security, one question should be tackled first: what will China look like in the future? There are three different schools of thought concerning China's future: the “implosion" school holds that China, unable to cope with a wide array of social, economic, and political challenges created by its rapid economic growth, will follow in the footsteps of the former Soviet Union and “implode" the “expansion" school argues that as China gradually builds up its material strength, Beijing will wield its weight and seek to establish hegemony in the region; and the “integration" school believes that as China's economy further merges with the world economy, Beijing's internal and external behaviors will slowly but inevitably conform to international norms, and China will become a more responsible and more cooperative member of the world community.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: China, Israel, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union

58270. Energy and Security in East Asia

Author:: Michael May
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This study examines the likely security consequences of the continued growth in energy consumption in East Asia, and in particular: The dimensions of that growth which are likely to have an effect on international security. The dependencies and insecurities created by that continued growth. The policy guidance that can be derived for the United States from a review of those dependencies and insecurities.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Energy Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Israel and East Asia

58271. The Japan-America Security Alliance: Prospects for the Twenty-First Century

Author:: Daniel Okimoto
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: By almost any criterion of success—be it cost–effectiveness, risk–reward ratio, multiplier effects, or sheer longevity, the Japan America Security Alliance (JASA) stands out as one of the most successful alliances in twentieth century history. For the United States, chief architect of a global network of military relationships, JASA is arguably the most important of its many bilateral alliances. In terms of historic impact, JASA is comparable to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a multilateral alliance that restructured the European security landscape in 1949. For nearly a half–century, JASA and NATO have functioned as the bedrock on which the Cold War security systems of Asia and Europe have been constructed.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, America, Europe, and Asia

58272. The Emerging EU Tax Policy

Author:: Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The agreement reached in the Council of EU Finance Ministers (Ecofin) on 1 December 1997 on taxation policy can be considered as a landmark in EU direct tax harmonisation. The Council agreed on a package of measures to combat harmful tax competition in the EU, including a code of conduct on corporate taxation and elements which should enable the Commission to draft a new proposal for a directive on the taxation of income from savings. The Council invited the Taxation Policy Group to continue its work and instituted a Review Group to assess harmful tax competition. The first and, until now, last EU measures in the area of direct taxation date back to 1990. These abolished double taxation between enterprises of the same group.
Topic:: Government and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

58273. MILOSEVIC: DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN?

Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In the past few weeks the Belgrade authorities have sacked a number of key public officials. The two most prominent were security chief Stanisic and head of the army general staff Perisic. The firings triggered much speculation in the international media about the stability of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's regime. According to one interpretation, the sackings signal a fundamental weakness in government ranks, with Milosevic moving pre-emptively to oust potential rivals to his authority. Alternatively, the sackings may represent an attempt by the Yugoslav President to further consolidate his power base and to effectively rule with the backing of Yugoslavia's military and security establishments. Both Stanisic and Perisic were seen as Milosevic's opponents on several key policies, notably Belgrade's handling of relations with the Kosovo Albanians. Both Perisic and Stanisic, reportedly moderates not favouring the use of severe force against the Kosovars, have been replaced by Milosevic "yes-men" regarded as proponents of a violent resolution of the Kosovo question. If this is even in part the case, Stanisic's and Perisic's sackings do not necessary reflect a weakness in Milosevic's rule. Instead, the sackings may only signal Milosevic's resolve to return to force as a means of regional problem solving.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

58274. To Build A Peace: Recommendations For The Madrid Peace Implementation Council Meeting

Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Three years after the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the country has many of the trappings usually associated with statehood such as a common flag, currency, vehicle licence plate and passport. However, these and other breakthroughs have generally required disproportionate amounts of time and effort on the part of the international community and have all too often been rammed through in spite of Bosnia's domestic institutions. Despite visible progress towards many of the goals contained within the DPA, therefore, Bosnia's peace still gives the impression that it is built on shifting sands. Moreover, although critical to the peace process, the scale of the international presence, which increasingly resembles a protectorate, is in some ways counter-productive to Bosnia's long-term future. On the one hand, domestic institutions and politicians have to a large extent given up responsibility for governing their own country. On the other, the massive international stake has led key international players to declare the peace process a success, irrespective of how it is actually evolving. The international presence is also extremely expensive, costing some $9 billion a year.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

58275. Change in the Offing: The Shifting Political Scene in Croatia

Publication Date:: 12-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has dominated Croatian political life since multi-party elections in April 1990 brought an end to communist rule. The HDZ has been a broad movement rather than a modern political party, representing a wide range of political views and interests, united behind its leader, President Franjo Tudjman, in the aim of achieving Croatian sovereignty and independence. In 1990-91, large areas of the country were taken over by rebellious Croatian Serbs, with support from Belgrade. Thus for most of the period of HDZ rule in Croatia, large chunks of the country remained outside Zagreb's control, and the overriding priority was to restore Croatia's territorial integrity, a goal which was finally achieved in January 1998. Croatia also became enmeshed in the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) as, supported by Croatia, the Bosnian Croats fought their erstwhile Bosniac allies in 1993-94. The obsession of Tudjman and the hard-line Herzegovina lobby in the HDZ with the dream of eventually detaching chunks of Bosnian territory and joining them with Croatia has been a persistent cause of international pressure on Croatia, as well as of division within Croatian politics.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia

58276. Breaking the Logjam: Refugee Returns to Croatia

Publication Date:: 11-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: As winter approaches in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), conditions for refugee returns to that country become increasingly difficult. In neighbouring Croatia, by contrast, the weather is generally milder so that, given political will, refugees should be able to return to their homes throughout the winter months. Moreover, the Croatian government is organising a reconstruction conference next month, at which it hopes to obtain pledges of international support to help rebuild its war-damaged country. Many refugees from Croatia are Serbs – of whom some 300,000 now reside in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Republika Srpska – who fled previously Serb-held regions of Croatia in the wake of the Croatian Army's 1995 military offensives.
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Croatia

58277. Sandzak: Calm For Now

Publication Date:: 11-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Sandzak is an area within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that borders Serbia and Montenegro. It has a multicultural, multiethnic history and a majority population that is Muslim. Since the rise of Serbian strong-man Slobodan Milosevic to political power the majority Muslims have been the targets of coercion. For the time being, the major issue is Milosevic's continuing repression of human and political rights. Stating that, however, is not concluding that the area is entirely immune from the effects of a serious and full-blown military crisis.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro

58278. Intermediate Sovereignty As A Basis For Resolving The Kosovo Crisis

Publication Date:: 11-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The International Crisis Group has decided to publish the report, prepared by the Public International Law and Policy Group, as a contribution to the debate on the future status of Kosovo. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position of the International Crisis Group.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

58279. 1998 Elections In Macedonia

Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Macedonians go to the polls on 18 October 1998 in the first of two rounds of voting to elect 120 members of the country's parliament. The forthcoming poll is Macedonia's third general election since the disintegration of one-party communist rule. Moreover, it takes place in the shadow of ethnic violence between Serbs and ethnic Albanians in the neighbouring Serbian province of Kosovo and political instability in neighbouring Albania. Although Macedonia has managed to avoid the violent conflict which has afflicted the rest of the former Yugoslavia, its experience of democracy has so far been mixed. Politics is divided along ethnic lines and the last multi-party elections in 1994 were marred by accusations of fraud with two major parties boycotting the second round of voting.
Topic:: Demographics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania

58280. Doing Democracy A Disservice: 1998 Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The stakes in Bosnia's forthcoming elections, the fifth internationally-supervised poll since the end of the war, could not be higher, for Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) and also for the international community. Having invested enormous financial and political capital in the peace process, the international community expects a return on its investment. That is why leading international figures including US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright have entered the Bosnian political fray, urging Bosnians to back parties which "support Dayton" and threatening to withdraw aid if they do not. The elections will bring some changes so the event will be hailed as a triumph. However, they will not lay the ground for a self-sustaining peace process. That can only be achieved by political reform and, in particular, a redesign of the electoral system to guarantee Bosnians ethnic security.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

58281. Whither Bosnia?

Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Despite considerable progress since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) in November 1995 in consolidating the peace and rebuilding normal life in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), international efforts do not appear to be achieving the goal of establishing Bosnia as a stable, functioning state, able at some point to run its own affairs without the need for continued international help. Peace, in the narrow sense of an absence of war, has been maintained; progress has been made in establishing freedom of movement throughout the country; joint institutions, including the state presidency, parliamentary assemblies and ministries, as well as a joint command for the armed forces of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation), have been established.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Government, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

58282. Kosovo's Long Hot Summer: Briefing on military, humanitarian and political developments in Kosovo

Publication Date:: 09-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: During the past six months, Serbia's southern, predominantly Albanian province of Kosovo has emerged from international obscurity to become the world's most reported conflict zone. That said, the history of ethnic animosity in this contested land, the complexity of competing Serb and Albanian claims and the speed with which the fighting has escalated make it difficult to keep up with the events, let alone analyse and try to understand them. What had, on 1 January 1998, been a long-standing ethnic Albanian political aspiration, namely an independent Kosovo, had evolved, by 1 March 1998, into the military objective of a popular insurrection and had by, 1 July 1998, become part of the cause of an impending humanitarian catastrophe with hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the fighting.
Topic:: International Relations, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

58283. Impunity In Drvar

Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Croat extremists put Drvar into the spotlight in April 1998 with murders and riots against returning Serbs and the international community. It was the most serious outbreak of violence in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) for more than a year. Before the riots, Drvar – whose pre-war population was 97 per cent Serb – offered some cause for optimism: more Serbs had returned there than to any other region of the Federation outside of Sarajevo, and Serbs were looking to Drvar to help them assess the possibilities and risks for further return to the Federation and Croatia.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia

58284. Changing Course?: Implications of the divide in Bosnian Croat politics

Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The reintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has been consistently obstructed by the main Bosnian Croat party, the Croat Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZBiH). The HDZBiH is dominated by hard-liners who emphasise the consolidation of a pure Croat-inhabited territory centred on western Herzegovina, with the eventual aim of seceding and joining Croatia. This policy has received support from hard-line elements in Croatia, including the president, Franjo Tudjman.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia

58285. The Albanian Question In Macedonia: Implications of the Kosovo Conflict for Inter-Ethnic Relations in Macedonia

Publication Date:: 08-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: As the one former Yugoslav republic which has managed to keep itself out of the wars of Yugoslav dissolution, Macedonia has often appeared to outsiders as a beacon of hope in the Balkans. However, inter-ethnic relations in the young state -- in particular those between ethnic Albanians, who make up at least 23 percent of the population, and ethnic Macedonians -- are poor. Moreover, as fighting between ethnic Albanian separatists and the Serbian police and military escalates in the neighbouring, southern Serbian province of Kosovo, relations between communities within Macedonia are deteriorating alarmingly. As a result, Macedonia and its entire population, irrespective of their ethnic origins, stand to be among the greatest long-term losers of the Kosovo conflict. Moreover, in the event of fighting and large numbers of refugees spilling over from Kosovo -- an entirely plausible eventuality unless the killing is halted -- Macedonia is poorly prepared and the country's very existence may be imperilled.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, NATO, Education, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania

58286. A View from Tirana: The Albanian Dimension of Kosovo Crisis

Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Relations between Albanians from Albania proper and their ethnic kin over the border in Kosovo are complex. Despite obvious linguistic and cultural ties, the political division of the past 80 years and Albania's isolation during the communist period have caused the two communities to evolve in a very different fashion. Moreover, the arrival of Kosovo Albanians in Albania in recent years and their influence in some unsavoury spheres of the economy have caused resentment among Albanians from Albania proper, most of whom are too preoccupied with the daily struggle for existence to devote much time or thought to national questions. The upsurge in violence in Kosovo and the influx of several thousand Kosovo Albanian refugees have, nevertheless, reminded Albanians of the links between the communities and sympathy for their ethnic kin in Kosovo is especially strong in the border areas among the Ghegs, the northern Albanians.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Albania, and Tirana

58287. The Konjic Conundrum: Why Minorities have Failed to Return to Model Open City

Publication Date:: 06-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 1 July 1997 Konjic became the first municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) to be officially recognised as an Open City by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). At the time, the Open Cities Initiative was supposed to form the backbone of UNHCR's approach to minority return. To obtain Open City status Konjic had to demonstrate a willingness to accept the return of minority displaced persons. In return, the UNHCR endeavoured to reward the municipality with additional funding. However, despite large-scale financial assistance and although close to 2,000 minority families have formally registered their intent to return, reliable sources estimate that fewer than 300 minority returnees have made their way home to Konjic since the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) brought the Bosnian war to a halt.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and United Nations

58288. A Tale of Two Cities: Return of Displaced Persons to Jajce and Travnik

Publication Date:: 06-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Croat-controlled Jajce and Bosniac-controlled Travnik are both municipalities to which displaced persons who do not belong to the majority ethnic group have been returning in substantial numbers. Some 5,000 Bosniacs have returned to Jajce (prewar population, 44,900) and 2,500 Croats have returned to Travnik (pre-war population, 70,400) since the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) came into force. These 7,500 “minority returns” constitute nearly 20 per cent of the total estimated 40,000 minority returns throughout the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), although the combined current populations of Jajce and Travnik (less than 75,000) account for less than 3 percent of the Federation's current population. These two municipalities in the Middle Bosnia Canton thus may be considered successful examples of minority return, if not yet reintegration. Nevertheless, at different times and to varying degrees, the authorities in Jajce and Travnik have obstructed return movements.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

58289. Inventory of a Windfall: Milosevic's Gains from the Kosovo Dialogue

Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: When on 15 May 1998 Slobodan Milosevic met with Ibrahim Rugova it was the first time that the Yugoslav president had met with an Albanian leader from Kosovo in close to a decade. The event, heralding weekly talks between Kosovo's Albanians and the Serbian government, has thus been hailed as a "dramatic turn-about" and "a first step toward peace in Kosovo". However, the fact that, after so many years of stale-mate, some kind of negotiations have begun, should not in itself be a reason for euphoria. Key to the success of any talks is the framework within which they take place. Negotiations concerning the future status of Kosovo may, as a result of the concessions offered to the Yugoslav president, have got off to an inauspicious start.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

58290. Minority Return or Mass Relocation?

Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: International organisations working to help displaced Bosnians return to their pre-war homes -- arguably the most important element of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) -- have declared 1998 the “year of minority returns”. Four months into the year, however, there is the distinct possibility that 1998 may instead prove to be the “year of mass relocation”. This need not be the case. The political climate in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has shifted in recent months and, despite major setbacks, including in Drvar, minority return success stories are already beginning to emerge. In order to turn the current trickle of minority returns into a steady flow, the lessons of past failures and successes have to be learned.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

58291. Again, the Visible Hand: Slobodan Milosevic's Manipulation of the Kosovo Dispute

Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Kosovo, an impoverished region at the southern tip of Serbia, is drawing ineluctably closer to war with each passing day. By night, men smuggle guns and ammunition from Albania to an Albanian militia determined to wrest Kosovo away from Serbia. The militia's fighters, angered by years of Serbian police violence against Kosovo's 90-percent Albanian majority, have killed Serbian police officers and murdered Albanians deemed to be loyal to the Serbian state.
Topic:: Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

58292. Rebuilding a Multi-Ethnic Sarajevo: The need for Minority Returns

Publication Date:: 02-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: To many who followed the Bosnian war from abroad, Sarajevo symbolised Bosnia and Herzegovina's rich tradition of multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity. While the Bosnian capital came under daily bombardment from Republika Srpska forces, its citizens of all faiths, Bosniacs, Serbs, Croats and others, suffered and survived together in the spirit of tolerance in which they had lived together for centuries. For multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity to re-emerge in Bosnia after the war, this spirit must be rekindled in peace.
Topic:: Demographics, Ethnic Conflict, and Migration
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

58293. A Hollow Promise? Return of Bosnian Serb Displaced Persons to Drvar

Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In Bosnia's local elections on 13 and 14 September 1997, parties representing displaced Serbs from Croat-held Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc won either a majority or a plurality of council seats in these three municipalities in Canton 10 of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since then, displaced Serbs have begun spontaneously moving back to their homes with the result that by mid-January, some 800 heads of households had returned to Drvar alone. Other displaced Serbs in Western Republika Srpska and in Brcko are monitoring the fortunes of these returnees closely. If Serbs are able to return to Drvar, this will free up housing in Republika Srpska for displaced Bosniacs and Croats. If, however, their return to Drvar is obstructed, displaced Serbs elsewhere will be discouraged from attempting to return to other Federation municipalities.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia and Eastern Europe

58294. Third Party Arms Transfers: Requirements for the 21st Century

Author:: John D. Macomber and Charles McC. Mathias
Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Can the United States collaborate with foreign nations in armaments development and production without jeopardizing US national security? This question - in light of America's global security obligations - demands a satisfactory answer. The economic and political advantages of greater international cooperation are significant. Benefits from cooperation include improved interoperability of weapons and equipment used by US allies and partners in operations with the United States, reduction in production costs, and preservation of a defense industrial base among US allies. Yet, considerations of national security are equally cogent.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: United States and America

58295. Trade Patterns, FDI, and Industrial Restructuring of Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Paolo Guerrieri
Publication Date:: 07-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: This paper analyses changes in the trade patterns of Central/Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU), and the potential role in the global/European division of labor of these transforming economies. In the reform period (1989–1995) trade pattern of Central and Eastern Europe has experienced significant changes. The most pronounced trend was the strong expansion of trade with the OECD countries, in particular with the European Union, whereas CMEA intraregional trade literally collapsed. This massive geographical reorientation of trade has determined also significant changes in the commodity composition of trade of CEE in the same period.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

58296. Coming to Terms with a Larger Europe: Options for Economic Integration

Author:: Helen Wallace
Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: Two contending logics have so far dominated the debate on how the countries of central and eastern Europe (CEECs) might become part of a single European economic space. One is a common sense and incremental logic of economic liberalisation; and the other is the logic of conventional enlargement of the European Union (EU). The first incremental logic starts from the simple proposition that the establishment and sustenance of market economies in the CEECs requires their inclusion in a multilateral regime of trade and payments as quickly as possible, and their coverage by the kinds of market regulation mechanisms that have now been established in western Europe through the single European market (SEM). The second logic of EU enlargement requires the incumbent EU members to accept the accession of the CEECs (or some of them) as full family members. It would mean the application of the whole range of EU policies across pan-Europe.
Topic:: International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

58297. The External Sector, the State and Development in Eastern Europe

Author:: Barry Eichengreen and Richard Kohl
Publication Date:: 03-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: Early optimists hoped that Eastern Europe might be able to emulate the high-performance economies of Asia once the shock of liberalization was absorbed. The ingredients of the East Asian “miracle,” in this view, were rapid accumulation based on high investment in physical and human capital, productivity growth based on technology transfer through licensing and direct foreign investment, rapidly expanding exports able to support industrial specialization and scale economies, and a strong state capable of guiding the development process and solving coordination problems. Emulating this recipe could provide the basis, it was hoped, for the expansion of exports and buoyant economic growth more generally.
Topic:: Development, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

58298. De Gaulle and Europe: Historical Revision and Social Science Theory

Author:: Andrew Moravcsik
Publication Date:: 05-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: The thousands of books and articles on Charles de Gaulle's policy toward European integration, whether written by historians, political scientists, or commentators, universally accord primary explanatory importance to the General's distinctive geopolitical ideology. In explaining his motivations, only secondary significance, if any at all, is attached to commercial considerations. This paper seeks to reverse this historiographical consensus by the four major decisions toward European integration taken under de Gaulle's Presidency: the decisions to remain in the Common Market in 1958, to propose the Fouchet Plan in the early 1960s, to veto British accession to the EC, and to provoke the “empty chair” crisis in 1965-1966, resulting in “Luxembourg Compromise.” In each case, the overwhelming bulk of the primary evidence—speeches, memoirs, or government documents—suggests that de Gaulle's primary motivation was economic, not geopolitical or ideological. Like his predecessors and successors, de Gaulle sought to promote French industry and agriculture by establishing protected markets for their export products. This empirical finding has three broader implications: (1) For those interested in the European Union, it suggests that regional integration has been driven primarily by economic, not geopolitical considerations—even in the “least likely” case. (2) For those interested in the role of ideas in foreign policy, it suggests that strong interest groups in a democracy limit the impact of a leader's geopolitical ideology—even where the executive has very broad institutional autonomy. De Gaulle was a democratic statesman first and an ideological visionary second. (3) For those who employ qualitative case-study methods, it suggests that even a broad, representative sample of secondary sources does not create a firm basis for causal inference. For political scientists, as for historians, there is in many cases no reliable alternative to primary-source research.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Organization, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and France

58299. Charismatic Leadership and Democratization: A Weberian Perspective

Author:: Michael Bernhard
Publication Date:: 01-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: Given the history of charismatic dictatorship in this century, charismatic leaders have been seen as threats to democracy. At the same time, periods of accelerated political change, such as the period of post-Communist democratization in Eastern and Central Europe, also give rise to charismatic leaders. This paper establishes the conditions under which charismatic leaders are compatible with democracy. Using a framework drawn from Max Weber's sociological writings the paper argues that charismatic leadership is only compatible with democracy when charisma is routinized in a rational-legal direction. In that routinization, however, rational-legal procedures (the rule-boundedness of power) must predominate over charismatic elements (the arbitrary and personal exercise of power). When this balance is reversed the result will be dictatorship. This discussion highlights the fact that both modern dictatorship and democracy legitimate themselves by a combination of charismatic and rational elements. It then considers whether Weber's theory can help us to understand the impact of the charismatic leadership on post-communist democratization by considering the experience of Havel in the Czech Republic, Wa__sa in Poland, and Yeltsin in Russia. It concludes with a discussion of charisma and its role in both democracy and dictatorship in the contemporary era. It finds that the similarity in the way in which modern democracy and dictatorship are legitimated augers better for the viability of authoritarian regimes than the many recent accounts which predict a diminished prospect for dictatorship in the current era might suggest.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

58300. The Role of the Community College in Shaping the Nation: An Educational Forum

Publication Date:: 10-1998
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: No abstract is available.

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS