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57902. Chinese Nationalism and Its International Orientations
- Author:
- Suisheng Zhao
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- SUISHENG ZHAO explores whether or not Chinese nationalism is a source of international aggression by examining its different perspectives, orientations, and characteristics. He finds that Chinese nationalism has been a situational matter, more reactive than proactive in international affairs.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nationalism, Politics, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
57903. Getting into the Black: Race, Wealth, and Public Policy
- Author:
- Dalton Conley
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- DALTON CONLEY examines the causes and consequences of the black-white asset gap in the United States. He argues that it is wealth, more than any other measure of socio-economic well being, that captures the nature of racial inequality in the post-civil rights era. Conley discusses policy implications that may be used to address such "equity inequity."
- Topic:
- Race, Inequality, Public Policy, and Wealth
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
57904. Coalition Formation and the Regime Divide in Central Europe
- Author:
- Anna Grzymała-Busse
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The study examines the formation of coalitions in East Central Europe after the democratic transitions of 1989. Existing explanations of coalition formations, which focus on either office-seeking and minimum wmning considerations, or on policy-seeking and spatial ideological convergence. However, they fail to account for the coalition patterns in the new democracies of East Central Europe. Instead, these parties' flrst goal is to develop clear and consistent reputations. To that end, they will form coalitions exclusively within the two camps of the regime divide: that is, amongst parties stemming from the former communist parties, and those with roots in the former opposition to the communist regimes. The two corollaries are that defectors are punished at unusually high rates, and the communist party successors seek, rather than are sought for, coalitions. This model explains 85% of the coalitions that formed in the region after 1989. The study then examines the communist successor parties, and how their efforts illustrate these dynamics .
- Topic:
- Coalition, Post-Communism, and Democratic Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe
57905. Still Dead After All These Years: Interpreting the Failure of General Equilibrium Theory
- Author:
- Frank Ackerman
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
- Abstract:
- For years after the Spanish dictator actually died, the mock television newscast on “Saturday Night Live” was periodically interrupted with a “news flash” informing viewers that “General Franco is still dead!” This served both to satirize the breathlessly urgent style of television news reporting, and to suggest that after many decades of taking an absolute ruler for granted, the world needed more than one reminder that he was no longer alive and well. Much the same is true for general equilibrium theory. In the course of its long decades of rule over the discipline of economics, general equilibrium became established as the fundamental framework for theoretical discourse. Its influence continues to spread in policy applications, with the growing use of computable general equilibrium models. It has successfully colonized much of macroeconomics, with the insistence on the derivation of rigorous microfoundations for macro models and theories. General equilibrium theory is widely cited in a normative context, often in textbooks or semitechnical discussion, as providing the rigorous theoretical version of Adam Smith’s invisible hand and demonstrating the desirable properties of a competitive economy.
- Topic:
- Economics and General Equilibrium Theory
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
57906. The Tobin Tax: How to Make it Real. Towards a Socially Responsible and Democratic System of Global Governance
- Author:
- Heikki Patomäki
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- In the 1970's James Tobin proposed a low rate tax on financial transactions of currencies. This tax would make many speculative movements unprofitable and the financial system less volatile and sensitive to daily political news and anticipation of economic policy changes. Consequently, it would create space for more autonomous economic policies of states.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and United Nations
57907. Dealing with the Past: The Case of Estonia
- Author:
- Hanna Järä
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- An essential challenge facing a society in transition stems from the legacy of the former power elite. A compelling need to restore moral order by the assessment of the abdication of the rule of law and violations of human rights requires an opportunity to face the past and its consequences. The process of dealing with the past includes a strong commitment to revealing the truth and redressing the past. The critical question around the issue is what is considered a proper reaction towards leaders and perpetrators who were responsible for oppressive activities and other violations of human rights, many of whom remain part of the new political structures or hold important positions in public life. The central tension is between the politics of compromise, the essence of which is to leave the past intact, and the radical notion of justice. Thus, the key dilemma facing the emerging democracies is whether past violations should be forgotten or confronted, forgiven or prosecuted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Estonia
57908. Coming Home or Moving Home? "Westernising" Narratives in Finnish Foreign Policy and the Re-interpretation of Past Identities
- Author:
- Chris Browning
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Cold War it is widely accepted that Finnish foreign policy has oriented increasingly towards the 'West', the most pertinent and concrete example of which, to date, has been accession to the EU. Implicit in many commentaries is the assumption that this orientation is a natural phenomenon, the natural culmination of an effervescent Finnish 'Western' cultural identity. Whilst the rhetorical style perhaps differs espousers of this view draw on Herderian and Hegelian assumptions, essentially arguing that after the unfortunate interruption and deviation from its true path occasioned by the Cold War the Finnish 'national spirit' is now back on its rightful historical and linear course to national fulfilment and blossoming. Looking into the nation's history such discourses see Finland's cultural and political roots as lying in the West and hence posit that with the break-up of the Soviet Union Finland is returning to these organic origins in Western civilisation, with all the effects for foreign policy such a 'Western' identity will entail. This is what we may term the 'Westernising' narrative of current debates about Finnish identity and Finnish foreign policy. On this basis the Finnish Cold War foreign policy of neutrality is characterised, either as having been a total aberration and betrayal of the Finnish 'Western' Self, or, and perhaps more commonly, as having been the best possible option available to the Finnish elite at the time: constrained by the dictates of power, agile Finnish political leaders were able to manoeuvre the Finnish ship of state through the various pitfalls and traps waiting to beguile them in the stormy waters of great power Cold War politics. Now free of such power dictates these current 'Westernising' discourses are attempting to push Finnish foreign policy towards the West, legitimising such a move to the Finnish public and the wider international audience on the grounds of Finland's claimed historical Western identity. To note the title of this panel discussion, “Defining New Identities Between East and West', for Westernising discourses there is no between about it. As an organically Western state why would Finland want to be between East and West any longer? On this basis the Finnish neutrality of the Cold War period merely disguised the true Finnish identity, a ruse so that Finland could in the future once more live as its true self when conditions once again permitted.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Finland
57909. The EU and the prospects of Common Defence
- Author:
- Hanna Ojanen
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- When thinking of the overall image of the European Union, one would not first come to visualise soldiers with the twelve starlets on blue background on their uniforms. During its 40 years' existence, the Community/Union has consolidated itself in quite other fields: in agriculture, trade, competition policy. Its own portrait as the 'ever closer Union' has gained resemblance with reality, notably through the economic and monetary union and cooperation in justice and home affairs. Common foreign and security policy, then, has from the very beginning been a central aspiration in the process of integration. Many would, however, treat such a goal as some sort of idealism, a wish, and the recurrent formulas about the Union that should speak with one voice in international affairs as some sort of a mantra of the Europeanist faith. Even a cursory acquaintance with the CFSP shows the divergence between the member countries' views when it comes to essential questions of foreign policy and tends to convince that if such a policy was ever to become a reality, it would at least not imply real common defence or a transformation of the Union into a military alliance - particularly so since following the division of labour between the different international organisations, there are others than the Union to take care of military cooperation.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
57910. Blazing New Trails: Villagers' Committee Elections in P. R. China
- Author:
- Linda Jakobson
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Though the Chinese Communist Party clings to its monopoly on power and fully intends to avoid “walking down the road of the Soviet Union,” it is implementing revolutionary political reform in the countryside. For the past decade, multi-candidate elections, in which candidates need not be members of the Communist Party, have been held in hundreds of thousands of Chinese villages. Abdicating its prerogative to appoint village chiefs, the Party has conceded that elected ones are more effective. The grassroots-level governance reform (jiceng zhengquan gaige) not only empowers ordinary citizens and encourages them to take part in the decision-making process. It also institutionalizes the concepts of accountability and transparency.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Government
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Soviet Union
57911. Crisis management the Finnish way – A state of the art report on practice and research
- Author:
- Raimo Lintonen
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this report is to analyse the threat perceptions, organisational contexts, practices as well as the “reflectiveness” of crisis management in Finland. The emphasis is on the overall situation, not on concrete historical crises. It is part of the groundwork for a project on the subject at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). The report is also an outgrowth of the participation of the FIIA since March 1999 in the evolving co-operation amongst European academics and practitioners in the field of crisis management.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Finland
57912. The Korean Peninsula: Is Kim Dae-jung's Pursuit of a Korean Confederation Realistic?
- Author:
- Linda Jakobson
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- In the spring of 1999 Swiri-fever swept South Korea. Millions flocked to see the first domestic action film considered up to international standards. “Swiri,” a slick Hollywood-style spy thriller, revolves around the complex issue of Korean unification that lies at the heart of Korea's future. Since the inauguration of President Kim Dae-jung in February 1998, South Korea has debated unification more openly than ever before.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea
57913. Heterogeneity and Evolution of Expectations: a Model of Currency Crisis
- Author:
- Jasmina Arifovic and Paul Masson
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- A model of a portfolio allocation between mature and emerging markets is simulated with heterogeneous expectations, imitation, and experimentation. Solutions produce periodic crises. The predictions of the model are compared to a representative-agent, rational expectations model with multiple equilibria.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
57914. Emissions Trading, Capital Flows and the Kyoto Protocol
- Author:
- Martin Ross, Robert Shackleton, Peter Wilcoxen, and Warwick J. McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- We use an econometrically estimated multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model of the world economy to examine the effects of the tradable emissions permit system proposed in the 1997 Kyoto protocol, under various assumptions about that extent of international permit trading. We focus, in particular, on the effects of the system on international trade and capital flows. Our results suggest that consideration of these flows significantly affects estimates of the domestic effects of the emissions mitigation policy, compared with analyses that ignore international capital flows.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
57915. The Crisis in Asia: An Empirical Assessment
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The economies of South East Asia and Korea have been shaken by a financial and economic crisis that has enveloped the region since mid 1997. There are competing explanations for the cause of the crisis however most commentators would agree that a major shock that impacted on the countries has been a dramatic increase in the perceived risks of investing in these economies. This paper explores the impact of a re-evaluation of the risk in the Asian economies focussing on the differential real consequences of a temporary versus more permanent rise in risk. It contributes to our understanding of the possible consequences of the Asia crisis by applying a global simulation model that captures both the flow of goods as well as international capital flows between countries. The real impacts on the Asian economies of a rise in risk perceptions in the model are large and consistent with observed adjustment. However the spillovers to the rest of the world are relatively small because the loss in export demand that accompanies the crisis in Asia is offset by a fall in long term interest rates as capital flows out of Asia into the non-Asian OECD economies. Thus strong domestic demand in economies such as the US induced by the general equilibrium effects of the reallocation of financial capital can more than offset the consequences of lower export growth. The analysis also highlights the impacts on global trade balances reflecting the movements of global capital and points to both potential problems and lesson for policymakers over the coming years.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
57916. The Global Economic Impacts of Trade and Financial Reform in China
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin and KK Tang
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Despite the setbacks from the recent Asian currency crisis, the ascendancy of Asia as an economic centre of world economic activity is likely to continue into the 21st century. A key issue that will shape the role of Asia, and indeed the shape of the world economy in the 21st century, is the economic development of China. To date China has successfully weathered the currency storm in Asia and continues on a program of economic reform. If anything, the problems of Japan and Korea provide powerful lessons for other countries undergoing rapid economic growth and structural change. These lessons include the importance of a well developed financial sector with lending and investment decisions based on market signals rather than government directives. Whether China can further integrate smoothly into global markets and sustain the fast growth of the last few decades will be a crucial development in the world economy. In this paper, we explore the impacts of continued Chinese economic reform with a focus on the role of international financial flows both in the adjustment within China as well as in the transmission of Chinese reforms to the rest of the world.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
57917. Regional and Multilateral Trade Liberalization: The Effects on Trade, Investment and Welfare
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the impact on economies of trade liberalization under alternative regional and multilateral arrangements: unilateral liberalization; liberalization as part of the ASEAN regional grouping; liberalization as part of the APEC regional grouping; or liberalization as part of a multilateral trade liberalization regime. The paper is based on a Dynamic Intertemporal General Equilibrium model (DIGEM) called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model. It is shown that the long run gains from a country's own liberalization tend to be large relative to the gains from other countries liberalizing although this varies across countries. It is also shown that there is a significant difference between the effects on GDP (production location) and the effects on consumption per capita of the alternative liberalization approaches across countries. The timing of liberalization is also shown to matter. With open capital markets the gains from credibly announced trade liberalization are realized before the reforms are put in place because there is a rise in global investment which raises the global capital stock. In addition there is a reallocation of capital via financial market adjustment. This paper also demonstrates that for some economies, there can be short run adjustment costs to trade liberalization because resources cannot be instantly reallocated across sectors in an economy. These adjustment costs from own liberalization can be reduced if more countries also liberalize. The nature of the dynamic adjustment suggests that other macroeconomic policies may play an important role during the early period of phased-in trade liberalization.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
57918. Rapid Economic Growth in China: Implications for the World Economy
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin and Yiping Huang
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Rapid growth of the Chinese economy in the past decade and its potential for strong growth into the foreseeable future have caused anxieties in the rest of the world. Some commentators see Chinese growth wholly in terms of competition for trade and investment opportunities with other developing economies and a major cause of structural adjustments in the advanced industrialized economies. In particular there have been warnings of severe consequences for international agricultural markets. In this paper we use a dynamic general equilibrium model called the G-CUBED model (developed by McKibbin and Wilcoxen) to explore possible future paths of the Chinese economy based on projections of population growth, sectoral productivity growth, energy efficiency and technical change in the Chinese economy. This model captures not only the composition of the direct trade impacts of developments in the Chinese economy but also the implications of the endogenous flows of financial capital on macroeconomic adjustment in the world economy. The study focuses on the period from 1990 to 2020. Rather than being a problem for the world economy, we find strong growth in China is beneficial for the world economy directly through raising world incomes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
57919. The Transmission of Productivity and Investment Shocks in the Asia Pacific Region
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- An important aspect of macroeconomic interdependence in the Asia Pacific region is the adjustment of trade and current account balances in response to changes in saving and investment rates in individual economies. Greater trade flows, reliance on imported intermediate goods as well as more integrated capital markets imply that shifts in private or public saving and investment rates in an economy in the region can potentially have large impacts on other economies. This paper explores the quantitative nature of these linkages by focusing on a number of shocks within the context of a new dynamic multi-sector global model called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model (AP-GCUBED). This model integrates sectoral adjustment with macroeconomic interdependence including explicit treatment of capital flows to explore the implications of a variety of productivity and investment shocks in the Asia Pacific Region. The first shock considered is a permanent decline in private investment in Japan. The second shock is a temporary rise in total factor productivity growth in China. The fall in Japanese investment is found to have a significant effect on trade flows and financial flows in the region whereas the rise in Chinese productivity has a quite different effect on the region.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
57920. North Korea: How Much Reform and Whose Characteristics?
- Author:
- Heather Smith
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper is the first of a three part project on economic reform on the Korean Peninsula. In this first paper, I focus on the question which has been subject to considerable recent debate, namely whether collapse of North Korea is imminent. In accessing this question the paper discusses the three structural bottlenecks now thought to be severely constraining the North Korean economy following a series of external shocks in the late 1980s, food shortages, energy constraints and a limited capacity to earn foreign exchange. Much speculation has focused on the deterioration in the food economy and that a prolongation of current food shortages will see North Korea collapse. One contribution of this paper lies in its attempt to analyze North Korean agricultural production and food consumption patterns using data made available by North Korea to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization. Several anomalies are found between this data and recent World Food Program assessments of food conditions and estimates of nutritional requirements which suggest caution in drawing a too deterministic link between current food shortages and collapse. The paper then discusses the role of international and regional players in prolonging North Korea's economic survival. In particular, the terms under which North Korea signed onto the 1994 Agreed Framework, a return to favorable trading terms with China, and North Korea's attempts aimed at expanding economic ties with the international community, could sustain North Korea at subsistence levels for the next 5 years at least. If collapse is not imminent in the short to medium term, then the policy implications that emerge from such a scenario are clear: that the international community will need to continue to pursue a policy approach of managing tension reduction and the integration of North Korea into the international community. Whether the North Korea regime will embrace fundamental reforms needed to ensure longer term survival remains difficult to judge. In the final section of the paper, several reasons are advanced as to why the window of opportunity for North Korea to embrace reform is now greater than at any time in the past.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and East Asia
57921. The Macroeconomic Experience of Japan Since 1990: An Empirical Investigation
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper outlines the macroeconomic experience of the Japanese economy since 1990. The MSG2 multi-country model is used to determine the extent to which the strong yen and growth experience of Japan over this period was due to underlying trends in the Japanese economy and to what extent shocks such as changes in the settings of monetary and fiscal policies in Japan and overseas, as well as the Kobe earthquake, played a role. It is shown that many of the key features of the Japanese economy over this period can be attributed to inappropriate macroeconomic policy settings in Japan as well as reflecting long term trends due to population changes and a maturing of the Japanese economy. In particular, it is shown that announcing expansionary fiscal policy in advance of implementation and exaggerating the extent of actual stimulus, tended to appreciate the yen and raise long term real interest rates which further reduced real GDP growth over the period. The extent to which macroeconomic policy rather than entrenched structural problems can explain the experience suggests that future prospects for the Japanese economy are not as bleak as sometimes predicted. Growth is unlikely to return to the high levels experienced in previous decades because of the maturing of the Japanese economy and low future population growth in Japan. This paper projects growth to be sustainable at around 2.5% per year over the next decade and a continual appreciation of the yen in both real and nominal terms.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
57922. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
- Author:
- Jeffrey A. Frankel
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Growth targets for emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by developing countries should be part of the effort to mitigate global climate change. This policy brief advances an approach for determining appropriate targets. They should be neither so tight as to retard economic development nor so generous as to confer enormous windfall gains. But where in this range should these targets be set? A fair allocation for potential new participants would fit the present pattern of emissions reductions agreed among industrialized countries at Kyoto in December 1997. Richer countries, in effect, agreed to make bigger sacrifices (on average) than did poor ones. Given uncertainty about the future, however, fixing the precise quantitative emission target now would create great risks regarding the ultimate stringency of the target. It would raise concerns that a target could turn out either unexpectedly stringent—unintentionally constraining economic development—or unexpectedly lax—resulting in emissions greater than in the absence of an agreement. Indexing emission targets to a country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth would moderate the effects of uncertainty.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Emerging Markets, and Environment
57923. The International Financial Architecture
- Author:
- Jeffrey A. Frankel
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The recent financial crises in many emerging market economies have raised anew questions about the appropriate exchange-rate regime and the use of capital controls as policy instruments. The use of both mechanisms should be tailored to each country's unique circumstances. Fixed exchange-rate mechanisms, such as dollarization (adopting the dollar as legal tender in place of the national currency), are suited to small open economies or those desperate to import monetary stability. Larger economies, such as the European Union (EU) and the United States, should allow their currencies to float. Intermediate regimes that fall between fixed- and floating-rate regimes—such as bands, baskets, and crawls (See Figure 1 for definitions)—are still appropriate for some countries. Certain well-targeted restrictions on the composition of capital flows might be appropriate for some emerging-market countries as temporary measures when inflows are particularly high.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
57924. NATO at 50: The Summit Beyond
- Author:
- Ivo H. Daalder
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- At the threshold of a new century, NATO needs a new purpose. A NATO maintained solely as a hedge against an uncertain future (including a possibly resurgent Russia) will become increasingly marginal to the interests of its members. A shift in emphasis to defending common global interests risks magnifying discord among Alliance members. Instead, NATO's purpose should now be to extend security and stability to all of Europe. This will require placing more emphasis on the ability to conduct crisis management operations in the region and taking practical, visible steps to keep the door to NATO membership wide open.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
57925. The Case Against Tax Cuts
- Author:
- William G. Gale and Alan J. Auerbach
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Emerging federal budget surpluses have sparked calls for large-scale tax cuts that would be irresponsible and counterproductive. Surpluses over the next ten years are based on optimistic assumptions regarding revenues and spending. Even if they do materialize, the surpluses will exist only because government accounting obscures the growing cost of future liabilities. The government faces a large, long-term deficit, and tax cuts would make this problem worse. The proposed 10-percent income tax rate cut would provide disproportionately large benefits to wealthy households and little to lower income households. It would have little effect on economic growth, but would impose higher burdens on future generations, and would reduce future budget discipline by violating the budget rules. Moreover, for most families, tax burdens are already at their lowest level in twenty years. Saving the surplus, by paying down public debt, would help the economy much more than would tax cuts.
- Topic:
- Government and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
57926. The Changing Shape of Government
- Author:
- Paul C. Light
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The past six years have witnessed the most significant reshaping of the federal workforce in recent history. On the one hand, government clearly has lost weight. The total number of full-time federal employees has declined, as has the number of federal middle-level managers. On the other hand, government has gotten much taller, at least as measured by the number of layers at the very top of the federal hierarchy. This changing shape means that ordinary Americans will be less likely to contact a federal employee when they call a government 800 number, write an office, or use a service. It also means that the nation's elected and appointed leaders will be further from the front lines, and less likely to know what the public is getting for its tax dollars.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
57927. Drug Trafficking on the Great Silk Road: The Security Environment in Central Asia
- Author:
- Martha Brill Olcott
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- To address drug proliferation and trafficking in the context of non-traditional security threats and to try to find ways out of the potentially explosive situation, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace sponsored a meeting of representatives of the five Central Asian states, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, the United States, the United Nations Drug Control Program (UNDCP), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the Aga Khan Development Network, held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan in May 1999. This paper analyzes the situation in the region based on the conference proceedings and aims to raise international awareness of the seriousness of the problem. It also advocates the need for a concerted effort within the region and without to help these countries fight this evil.
- Topic:
- Security and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Turkey, Asia, and United Nations
57928. A Dollarization Blueprint for Argentina
- Author:
- Steve H. Hanke and Kurt Schuler
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- President Carlos Menem of Argentina has advocated replacing the Argentine peso with the dollar. Dollarization would benefit Argentina because it would eliminate the peso-dollar exchange-rate risk, lower interest rates, and stimulate economic growth.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Latin America
57929. Ballistic Missile Proliferation: Does the Clinton Administration Understand the Threat?
- Author:
- Ivan Eland and Timothy M. Beard
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Although the end of the Cold War reduced the likelihood of a nuclear exchange between the superpowers, several smaller rogue states, through their dedicated efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, have emerged as potential threats to U.S. national security. National Intelligence Estimate 95-19 stated that no new missile threats to the United States would develop before 2010. However, given the curious circumstances of the estimate's release and the many analytical faults contained in the document, its results have been questioned.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy and National Security
- Political Geography:
- United States
57930. Strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention: Illusory Benefits and Nasty Side Effects
- Author:
- Eric R. Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Biological Toxins and Weapons Convention—signed in 1972—prohibits signatory nations from developing, possessing, employing, or transferring biological weapons. The convention does not contain any protocols for its enforcement, however. There is now an international effort under way to develop such protocols.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States
57931. Corporate Welfare for Weapons Makers the Hidden Costs of Spending on Defense and Foreign Aid
- Author:
- William D. Hartung
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The defense and foreign aid budgets are the largest single source of government funding for private corporations. More than half of U.S. weapons sales are now being financed by taxpayers instead of foreign arms purchasers. During fiscal year 1996 (the last year for which full statistics are available), the government spent more than $7.9 billion to help U.S. companies secure just over $12 billion in agreements for new international arms sales. The annual $7.9 billion in subsidies includes taxpayer-backed loans, grants, and government promotional activities that help U.S. weapons makers sell their products to foreign customers. Also, the provision of low-cost facilities and extensive subsidies for research and development and mergers and acquisitions to major contractors fosters a “risk-free” environment in which weapons makers have little economic incentive to produce effective systems at affordable prices. Furthermore, a portion of the $120 billion the Pentagon spends each year on contracts with U.S. defense contractors is being wasted on defense pork—that is, redundant or unneeded weapons systems. Such subsidies and spending for defense pork can interfere with the fulfillment of legitimate security needs.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Climate Change, Government, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
57932. Replacing Potemkin Capitalism: Russia's Need for a Free-Market Financial System
- Author:
- Kurt Schuler and George A. Selgin
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- On August 17, 1998, Russia devalued the ruble and stopped payment on its government debt, creating a financial crisis that continues today. Some observers have blamed the financial crisis, and the poor performance of the Russian economy generally, on government policies that they claim are rigidly laissez faire. However, a closer look at the Russian financial system reveals that it remains fundamentally socialist, though it has superficial capitalist features.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
57933. Blunder in the Balkans: The Clinton Administration's Bungled War against Serbia
- Author:
- Christopher Layne
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Clinton administration has made one miscalculation after another in dealing with the Kosovo crisis. U.S. officials and their NATO colleagues never understood the historical and emotional importance of Kosovo to the Serbia n people, believing instead that Belgrade's harsh repression of the ethnic Albanian secessionist movement in Kosovo merely reflected the will of President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia. The administration's foreign policy team mistakenly concluded that, under a threat of air strikes, the Yugoslav government would sign a dictate d peace accord (the Rambouillet agreement) to be implemented by a NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo. Even if Milosevic initially refused to sign the Rambouillet agreement, administration leaders believed that Belgrade would relent after a brief “demonstration” bombing campaign. Those calculations proved to be disastrously wrong.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania
57934. Old Wine in New Bottles: The Pentagon's East Asia Security Strategy Report
- Author:
- Doug Bandow
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- To contain Soviet-led communism and, secondarily, to prevent a militarily resurgent Japan, Washington established a network of alliances, bases, and deployments throughout East Asia after World War II. By the 1990s the Soviet Union had imploded, China had become a reasonably restrained international player, and other communist states had lost their ideological edge. At the same time, the noncommunist nations had leaped ahead economically. Despite such momentous developments, however, U.S. policy remains fundamentally the same.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Washington, Israel, and Soviet Union
57935. Is Readiness Overrated? Implications for a Tiered Readiness Force Structure
- Author:
- James L. George
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Readiness, the capability to respond quickly to a conflict with the appropriate force, is considered one of the most important elements in defense planning. From one-third to well over one-half of the defense budget goes toward maintaining readiness. Few people questioned the need for readiness, especially after the attack by North Korea against South Korea in 1950 and during the Cold War, when the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact was poised to quickly thrust into Western Europe without much warning.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- United States, South Korea, North Korea, and Western Europe
57936. In Praise and Criticism of Mexico's Pension Reform
- Author:
- L. Jacobo Rodriguez
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The privatization of Mexico's government-run pay-as-you-go social security system, which went into effect in July 1997, is the Ernesto Zedillo administration's most important structural reform. It is a measure that, if successful, will help bring much-needed social and economic stability. The Mexican peso crisis of 1994–95 underscore d the fragility of Mexico's economy, its need for independent institutions, and its need for a large pool of long-term domestic savings. An increase in the rate of private savings in Mexico, which this reform will promote, would make the Mexican economy less dependent on short-term fluctuations of international capital flows and, thus, more stable. More important still, the privatization of social security will erect one of the basic pillars of a free society by turning Mexico into a country of property-owning workers.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and Privatization
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
57937. National Missile Defense: Examining the Options
- Author:
- Charles V. Peña and Barbara Conry
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- To date, the debate surrounding national missile defense (NMD) has been dominated by political rhetoric. Supporters (usually conservatives) often paint a “doom-and-gloom” picture, pointing out that the United States is vulnerable to an attack by ballistic missiles. Critics (usually liberals) defend the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty as the cornerstone of deterrence and stability and argue that any defensive deployment would upset the balance between the offensive strategic nuclear forces of the United States and Russia.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
57938. U.S. Assistance for Market Reforms: Foreign Aid Failures in Russia and the Former Soviet Bloc
- Author:
- Janine R. Wedel
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, the governments of the United States and other Western countries have provided massive aid to promote a transition to the free market in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. But aid for market reforms in the region has been largely ineffective. Whether provided in the form of technical assistance, grants to political groups or nongovernmental organizations, loans and guarantees to the private sector, or direct financial aid to post-communist governments, that aid has been plagued by a number of problems. The failed $22.6 billion bailout of Russia by the International Monetary Fund in July 1998 only confirmed the flawed nature of the aid-for-reform approach.
- Topic:
- Economics and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
57939. Tilting at Windmills: Post-Cold War Military Threats to U.S. Security
- Author:
- Ivan Eland
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Serious military threats to U.S. security have diminished dramatically since the end of the Cold War. The threat from conventional Russian military forces has all but disintegrated and would take many years to reconstitute. China would take 20 to 30 years to transform its bloated and obsolete military into a major threat to U.S. vital interests. The militaries in both nations should be watched, but they may never develop into credible threats.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
57940. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: The Costs Outweigh the Benefits
- Author:
- Kathleen C. Bailey
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is now before the U.S. Senate for its advice and consent. The treaty bans all explosive testing of nuclear weapons. Advocates of the CTBT make several arguments in support of the treaty. The reasons reduce to two points: the ban will constrain the modernization and development of nuclear weapons by the nations that already possess them, and it will help prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to additional nations. Both objectives are set out in the CTBT's preamble.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States
57941. Civil Society, the Public Sector, and Poor Communities
- Author:
- Kingsley G. Thomas and James Gibson
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- The current devolution debate has focused on shifting responsibilities from the federal level to the states. A byproduct of this shift has been renewed attention to an often neglected element of the policy mix—the costs and benefits of different local institutionalarrangement—and to the potential roles of civil society and community-based initiatives in that mix. The local tableau has recently been rediscovered as a vital leg on which the performance of the public sector is dependent. Students of government are only beginning to understand this play between civil society and the public sector. Here we focus especially on the dynamics within poor communities, where simple assistance is no longer considered adequate to solve problems without the necessary institutional infrastructure that is sometimes included under the label “civil society.”
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Welfare, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- United States
57942. The Internet Society and its Struggle for Recognition and Influence
- Author:
- Raymund Werle and Volker Leib
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- With the formation of a private non–profit corporation providing mainly technical coordination and guidance for the global Internet, a new, as yet uncertain, era of the network's governance began in November 1998. The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) assumed the responsibility for functions which previously were guaranteed by the US government. Thus ICANN serves as an example of private governance with global significance, in an industry which can neither be completely left to the market nor exclusively be governed by national public authorities or international intergovernmental organizations.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
57943. The Viability of Advanced Welfare States in the International Economy: Vulnerabilities and Options
- Author:
- Fritz W. Scharpf
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- The paper represents a preliminary and partial analysis of the information collected in a comparative 12-country study of the adjustment of national employment and social-welfare policies to the increasing internationalization of product and capital markets. After the postwar decades, when national governments were still able to control their economic boundaries, the first international challenge came in the form of the oil-price crisis of 1973/74, which confronted industrial economies with the double threat of cost-push inflation and demand-gap unemployment. It could be met if countries were able to achieve a form of “Keynesian concertation” in which expansionary monetary and fiscal policies would defend employment while union wage restraint could be relied on to fight inflation. For this solution, “corporatist” industrial-relations institutions were a necessary but not a sufficient condition.
- Topic:
- Economics and Industrial Policy
57944. Social Funds in Stabilization and Adjustment Programmes
- Author:
- Giovanni Cornia
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Well before the introduction of adjustment-related Social Funds (SFs), many developing countries had developed a variety of safety nets comprising food subsidies, nutrition interventions, employment-based schemes and targeted transfers. Middle-income and a few low-income countries had also achieved extensive coverage in the field of social insurance. In countries committed to fighting poverty, these programmes absorbed considerable resources (2-5 per cent of GDP, excluding social insurance) and had a large impact on job creation, income support and nutrition: for instance, in 1983, Chile's public works programme absorbed 13 per cent of the labour force. Their ability to expand quickly depended on a permanent structure of experienced staff, good portfolios of projects, clear management rules, adequate allocation of domestic resources, supply-driven execution and, with the exception of food subsidies, fairly good targeting.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, South Asia, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and Chile
57945. Regulation of Social Services in the Least Developed Countries: What are the Issues at Stake?
- Author:
- Cecilia Ugaz
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The privatization trend affecting the state involvement in productive sectors is also challenging the role of the state in the provision of social services. And, as private participation in social sectors increases, a regulatory framework is needed to ensure that the market reaches socially efficient outcomes. The regulation of social services carries the problem of conceptualization. What is the aim of regulatory intervention in social sectors? And what is the market structure to which this regulatory constraint will be applied to? These are the questions we discuss in this paper, is devoted to analysing the role of regulation of social services in low-income countries within the so-called mixed economy of care, characterized by multiple providers: the state, the private sector, non-profit organizations.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Government, and Third World
57946. IMF Model and Resource-Abundant Transition Economies: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
- Author:
- Richard M. Auty
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The IMF model of the economic transition stresses the role of macro policy reform. It concludes that rapid reform to a market economy is preferable to slow reform because late reformers experience very steep transition recessions and severe contractions in government revenues. However, the predictive power of the IMF model has weakened through the late-1990s. This is because it under-estimates the role of initial conditions that include the natural resource endowment as well as institutional capital and the legacy of produced capital. This paper demonstrates how the predictive power of the IMF model can be improved by taking account of the impact of natural resource abundance for the transition. Resource abundance can feed corruption and diminish the urgency of reform, thereby intensifying the adverse effect of a retarded transition. It can also amplify the contraction of the non-booming tradeable sector due to Dutch disease effects. These adverse features are likely to be more severe where the resource endowment creates point source socio-economic linkages, as in mining, as opposed to the diffuse linkages associated with crop production by yeoman farmers. The detrimental effects of resource abundance are also likely to be more severe where institutional capital is deficient. Consistent with such a resource-constrained variant of the IMF model; resource-abundant Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan both delayed their reforms and both exhibit high levels of corruption relative to the transition economies as a whole. Also, economic recovery in Kazakhstan is slower than the original IMF model predicts because investment in minerals strengthened the exchange rate and retarded economic diversification. In the case of Uzbekistan, a natural resource endowment that yielded especially buoyant crop revenues (that eased the foreign exchange constraint) helps to explain why the growth collapse is less than the unadjusted IMF model predicts for such a slow reformer. This explanation is still too simple, however. Uzbekistan also benefits from robust social capital and limited obsolete industry, both of which retard the decline in government revenue. Finally, the resource-constrained IMF model suggests that the Uzbek policy of gradual reform represses exports and intensifies economic distortions. This will lock the economy into a staple trap and lead to a growth collapse, as the experience of many resource-abundant developing market economies testifies
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Environment, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Kazakhstan, Asia, Uzbekistan, and Dutch
57947. Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Nordic Perspective on the Dutch Disease
- Author:
- Thorvaldur Gylfason
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper begins by offering a quick glance of the Nordic economies and of some aspects of their economic growth performance and natural resource dependence since 1970. Thereafter, it reviews some of the main symptoms of the Dutch disease, and then considers whether these symptoms are observable in some of the Nordic countries in view of their abundant natural resources. The experience of Iceland and its fish seems an obvious point of departure. The paper then discusses the less obvious case of Norway and its oil (and fish!) and, at last, also reviews some possible linkages between forest resources and economic growth in Finland.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Finland, Norway, and Dutch
57948. Development Discontinuities: Leaders and Intermediaries in Producers' Associations
- Author:
- Tito Bianchi
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The development literature considers associations an important economic development tool that allows producers to pursue their economic welfare collectively and through participatory means. This paper comparatively analyses the experience of three associations of agricultural producers in the underdeveloped regions of Brazil and Italy that were successful in this economic development task. Their experience, however, challenges a commonly held view about the participatory nature of associations.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Brazil, South America, and Latin America
57949. On the Regulation of Telecommunications Markets
- Author:
- Manfred J. Holler
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses the theoretical concepts underlying recent developments in the regulation of telecommunications in Europe, the USA and developing countries with respect to efficiency and welfare. It focuses on analysing standardization problems, pricing rules and entry condition related to networks and network effects and derives preliminary policy recommendations for the telecommunications industry through a discussion of network models and related empirical evidence.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
57950. Resource-Led Growth — A Long-Term Perspective: The Relevance of the 1870-1914 Experience for Today's Developing Economies
- Author:
- Ronald Findlay and Mats Lundahl
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Resource-Led Growth – A Long-Term Perspective surveys the 1870-1914 experience of growth in resource-rich economies: the so-called regions of recent settlement, some tropical countries and some mineral-based export economies. First, three contrasting stylized views of resource-led development are presented. Thereafter the picture of international trade in primary products and the migration of production factors between 1870 and 1914 is sketched. The third section presents some models that may be used to analyse trade and factor movements in the context of resource-rich (staples) economies and provides some details of the experience of fifteen countries: Canada, the United States, Australia and Argentina among the regions of recent settlement, Brazil, Costa Rica, Colombia, Ceylon, Malaya, Burma, Siam and the Gold Coast in the tropical group, and Bolivia, Chile and South Africa among the mineral exporters.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, South Africa, Burma, Chile, and Bolivia
57951. Group Behaviour and Development
- Author:
- Frances Stewart, Judith Heyer, and Rosemary Thorp
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- A very large amount of activity occurs within groups (that is within families, firms, co-operatives, communities or governments). Yet most economic analysis focuses on market transactions between these agents. The purpose of the study is to analyse within group behaviour. Evidence suggests some groups perform well from the perspective of efficiency, equity and well-being, while others perform poorly. The study aims to identify the main causes for these different outcomes, developing a preliminary analysis of modes of group behaviour, and influences on them.
- Topic:
- Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets
57952. Economic Theories of the Household: A Critical Review
- Author:
- Päivi Mattila-Wiro
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The aim of this paper is to review the principal assumptions and aspects of the unitary household model and collective models of household behaviour. Empirical studies are presented to assess whether the theories can offer adequate descriptions of household behaviour and to examine the types of policy implications that can be drawn from these. The paper concludes that the models reviewed lack the analytical tools to provide an understanding of the reality of households. Theories are unrealistic and therefore are of little use in the design of policies or projects which endeavour to help people
- Topic:
- Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets
57953. Inequality in Income and Access to Education: A Cross-Country Analysis
- Author:
- Daniele Checchi
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In the current debate on the relationship between inequality in income distribution and growth one of the possible link works through the access to education. After reviewing this debate, a formal model shows how the imperfection of financial markets makes educational choices dependent on the distribution of family incomes. This leads to two testable predictions in the analysis of aggregate data on school enrolments: a negative (linear) relation with the Gini coefficient on incomes distribution; and a positive dependence on public resources invested in education and/or on skill premium in the labour market. These predictions are then tested on a (unbalanced) panel of 102 countries for the period 1960-90. The main findings of this analysis are that, once we control for the degree of development with the (log of) per capita output, financial constraints seem mainly relevant in limiting the access to secondary education. However, when considering gender differences, there is evidence that female participation in education is more strongly conditioned by family wealth, starting from primary education. On the contrary there is no clear evidence of a relevant impact of invested resources, but at the tertiary level.
- Topic:
- Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets
57954. Liberalization, Globalization, and Income Distribution
- Author:
- Giovanni Andrea Cornia
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Recent mainstream analyses of changes in income distribution over the post World War II period have concluded that income inequality within countries tends to be stable, that there is no strong association between growth and inequality and that, therefore, poverty is best reduced through growth-oriented, rather than distributive, policies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and International Political Economy
57955. Wage Reform, Soft Budget Constraints and Competition
- Author:
- Jian Sun
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the Chinese economic reforms in 1978, there has been a series of effort to reform the labour compensation practice in state-owned enterprises to strengthen the link between pay and productivity. Despite the reforms, however, rapid increases in wage rates occurred in state-owned enterprises. Moreover, although state-owned enterprises have much lower productivity gains than non-state enterprises, they pay substantially higher wages and have faster wage growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
57956. The Asian Currency Crisis: Origins, Lessons and Future Outlook
- Author:
- Abdur Chowdhury
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- What started in the summer of 1997 as a regional economic and financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia had developed into a global financial crisis within the span of a year. This crisis followed the crisis in the European Monetary System in 1992–3 and the Mexican peso crisis in 1994–5. However, unlike the previous two crises, the scale and depth of the Asian crisis surprised everyone. One obvious reason for this is East and Southeast Asia's track record of economic success. Since the 1960s, no other group of countries in the world has produced more rapid economic growth or such a dramatic reduction in poverty. Given so many years of sustained economic performance the obvious question is: how could events in Asia unfold as they did?
- Topic:
- Economics and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia
57957. The Weightless Economy in Economic Development
- Author:
- Danny Quah
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Can the increasing significance of knowledge-products in national income—the growing weightless economy—influence economic development? Those technologies reduce "distance" between consumers and knowledge production. This paper analyzes a model embodying such a reduction. The model shows how demand-side attributes—consumer attitudes on complex goods; training, education, and skills for consumption (rather than production)—can importantly affect patterns of economic growth and development. Evidence from the failed Industrial Revolution in 14th-century China illustrates the empirical relevance of the analysis.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- China
57958. Hong Kong Update: Winter 1999-2000
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Lee Kuan Yew, George Hui, and Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- During my yearly visits to Hong Kong over the last thirty years, I was struck by the upbeat, can-do spirit of its people. However troublesome the situation, such as the noisy demonstrations of the imitators of the Red Guards in 1966 and 1967, or the economic downturn caused by the sudden quadrupling of oil prices in 1973, Hong Kong people were not dismayed or despondent. So when I spent a few days in Hong Kong at the beginning of June this year, I was surprised by its completely different mood. The people I met seemed frustrated at finding themselves in a situation where the solutions were not obvious. Much of the present malaise in Hong Kong arises from the problems of a transition that proved more difficult than expected. In part it was because of the five years of the last governor's policies, aggravated by the Asian financial crisis. Until the territory has come through this transition phase it is not possible to make any long-term forecasts on Hong Kong's future.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Hong Kong
57959. Oil For Wheels
- Author:
- John V. Mitchell
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Current trends in transportation are unsustainable. A struggle for new means of mobility is beginning. Changes are inevitable. There is uncertainty about growth in the supply of fuel for vehicles after 2020. (See Briefing Paper No. 10, Changing Oil, by Norman Selley, forthcoming January 2000).The transport sector will be required to contribute to the reductions in GHG emissions required under the Kyoto Protocol. This will involve going beyond the 20-30% improvements envisaged by current voluntary commitments such as those by the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers in Europe, since such improvements extend trends which are already embedded in 'business as usual' projections.To manufacture clean petroleum fuels to protect urban air quality against increasing volumes of vehicle traffic will require increases in hydrogen inputs which cannot be achieved without significant increases in CO2 emissions (unless restrictions on the expansion of nuclear power are lifted).
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, and Science and Technology
57960. The Southern African Development Community: Regional Integration in Ferment
- Author:
- David Simon and Alexander Johnston
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Shortly before he became President of the 'new South Africa' in May 1994, Nelson Mandela stressed that his country's relations with the region's poorer and weaker neighbours would be characterized by 'sensitivity and restraint'. This declaration of intent was welcome given South Africa's traditional dominance as the hegemonic power during the apartheid era and the resulting crude and at times violent exploitation of its neighbours' dependence, in varying degree, on the Republic's economy for a wide range of goods and services, for transport links and a market for employment. Indeed, South Africa's accession to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in 1994 offered the promise of a new deal in regional relations, with the new member acting as an 'engine of growth' and as a cooperative and enthusiastic supporter of purposeful and sustained regional integration.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Africa
57961. The Election of Ishihara: A Symbol of Rising Nationalism in Japan?
- Author:
- Christopher P. Hood
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Ishihara Shintaro, known for his strong views particularly on Japan's relationship with the United States, became Governor of Tokyo on 11 April 1999. This paper considers the significance of his election, and whether it symbolizes a rise in nationalism in Japan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, and Tokyo
57962. Currency Boards or Dollarization — Solutions or Traps
- Author:
- John Chown
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Currency boards have been suggested for Russia, and adopted elsewhere in eastern Europe. Brazil's fixed rate has had to be abandoned, but Argentina is considering replacing its currency board with dollarization, and suggesting this solution for the rest of Latin America. Fixed exchange-rate regimes (and the crawling peg in Russia) have collapsed in Southeast Asia but Hong Kong, which had a formal currency board, has (so far) survived.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America
57963. New Government, New Agenda For Israel
- Author:
- Joel Peters and Becky Kook
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- On 17 May 1999 Ehud Barak secured a stunning victory in the Israeli elections, defeating incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu with a majority of almost 400,000 and gaining slightly over 56 per cent of all the votes cast. While polls in the days immediately prior to the election had signalled Netanyahu\'s defeat, no one had anticipated such a landslide victory. After three turbulent years of Likud government, Barak\'s election slogan \'Israel wants a change\' clearly captured Israeli public disillusion with Netanyahu, who lost the trust and support of voters throughout the country.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
57964. Can Public Service Survive The Market? Issues For Liberalized Electricity
- Author:
- Walt Patterson
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- As governments around the world liberalize their electricity systems, they are overturning the guiding principles that have shaped electricity for the past century. Yet they continue to regard electricity as a public service. The consequent inconsistencies and contradictions are already evident, and intensifying. This Briefing Paper outlines the implications. It is based on a research project now under way in the Energy and Environmental Programme, entitled Keeping the Lights On: Public Service in Liberalized Electricity. For details please see the back page.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe
57965. State And Region: The Spanish Experience
- Author:
- David Bright
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- One of the most interesting consequences of the development of the European Union has been the stimulus it has given in recent years to the rediscovery of region within European states. As the supra-state functions of the European institutions in Brussels have burgeoned and the intrinsic sovereignty of the state in Europe has declined, so regions have acquired an ever greater social and political significance. Of course, in some cases, the state was traditionally federal in nature—as with Germany\'s Länder system—and, politically at least, regional aspirations have been satisfied. In the past two decades, however, regional aspirations have expanded into social and cultural spheres that require a new, defined political context. Even in such long-established states as the United Kingdom, such pressures now have to be acknowledged as sub-state factors enter into the complex array of political elements that go to make up the contemporary Union. In this context the Spanish experience is illuminating, both in the way it demonstrates how such tendencies should be accommodated and in the way in which regional populations respond. It is, in fact, a paradigm for a development that will become inevitable and universal as the power of the state declines within the wider structures of contemporary \'Euroland\'.
- Topic:
- Government and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
57966. The Buenos Aires Climate Conference:Outcome And Implications
- Author:
- Christiaan Vrolijk
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The Kyoto Protocol agreed in December 1997 was a landmark, but not an end point. Negotiations are on going to fill in the gaps left in the Protocol. From 2 to 14 November the Conference of Parties met again to follow up on Kyoto in its fourth session (COP-4) in Buenos Aires. After the media hype of the Japan meeting, the lack of news coverage was not entirely deserved. Although discussions had to focus on filling in the details in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, these details will determine just how big a step Kyoto was The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was negotiated at the \'Earth Summit\' in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and has entered into force in 1994. Under the Convention the Parties have committed themselves to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations \'at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system\'. The headline commitment for the countries listed in Annex I of the Convention, the industrialized countries, is to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels, and to show a reversal in the trend of growing emissions before the year 2000. The Conference of Parties meets annually as the supreme body of the Convention, dealing with various issues related to it. The Kyoto Protocol, negotiated at COP-3 in Japan, is a Protocol to the FCCC, and as such was also on the negotiating table of the COP in Argentina. It sets out renewed, and now legally binding, emission reduction commitments for the Annex B Parties (the industrialized and former COMECON countries). The overall commitments add up to a 5% reduction from 1990 in a basket of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, some industrial gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6) and emissions and removals from land-use change and forestry (LUCF). After its entry into force, the Meeting of Parties (to the Kyoto Protocol) will take over the responsibility for the Protocol issues Many Annex B Parties that have taken up commitments under the Kyoto Protocol stressed the importance at working on the rules for the mechanisms of the Protocol. The EU also stressed the need for limits on the use of these mechanisms and a compliance regime. The G77/China stressed the importance of a debate on the adverse effects and impact of responses. One of the commentators said that Article 17 on international emissions trading \'contains the basic principles, but its main feature is the fact that it can be interpreted to anyone\'s liking\'. Many articles leave room for further work by the COP. Even if the text was not deliberately ambiguous, only general principles were described, so that the 170 Parties at the negotiations could reach agreement, with a later COP to decide on the details of the issue This paper will first briefly discuss the science of climate change and then consider the Buenos Aires Plan of Action and the most important individual issues of the conference.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- China
57967. Conflict In The Horn: Why Eritrea And Ethiopia Are At War
- Author:
- Martin Plaut and Patrick Gilkes
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- In May 1991 the capital of Eritrea, Asmara, fell to the liberation movement that had been fighting for the independence of the territory for the past thirty years. At the same time the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, was captured by forces led by northern rebels from the province of Tigray. It seemed, for a moment, that the long and bloody wars that had racked the region might be at an end. The dual victories were the result of a close cooperation between the two movements that had led these struggles—the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Both had been determined to overcome authoritarian rule from Addis Ababa and had worked closely together to achieve this end. Two years later Eritrea achieved formal independence, recognized by the United Nations, by the Organization of African Unity and—most important of all—by the new rulers in Ethiopia. At the hour of victory relations between the two movements appeared genuinely warm and friendly. Yet just seven years later the divisions could hardly be deeper. Since May 1998 they have been in—or close to—open warfare. Their leaders, who were once close personal friends, are no longer on speaking terms. Tens of thousands of people have been deported or displaced and radio stations blare out vitriolic propaganda against one another. These are complex events that have been further obscured by the contradictory versions of the truth that both sides have advanced.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Migration, Nationalism, Sovereignty, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
57968. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 1999
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.5 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the end of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57969. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 1999
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57970. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 1999
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators have paused after strong growth early this year. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57971. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 1999
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in September. This report merits careful interpretation, but does not change general conclusions drawn from previous releases, which show the economy is in good health: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems must be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics and Health
- Political Geography:
- United States
57972. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 1999
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of 3.0 percent (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems do not seem to be a problem yet.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57973. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 1999
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising in the 3rd quarter from the 1.8 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 2nd quarter. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems show inconsistent patterns of growth.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57974. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1999
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at a pace of 2.7 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999, compared to the advance estimate of GDP showing a 2.3 percent increase. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems are almost nonexistent.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57975. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 1999
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index held steady in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of over 2.5 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through the remainder of 1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57976. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 1999
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to activity continuing to rise at the start of the 2nd quarter of 1999, but at a pace that is much more modest than the 4.1 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 1st quarter. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least the 4th quarter of 1999. Evidence of cyclical imbalances from the lagging indicators—that might threaten the stability of the economy—is neither consistent nor convincing.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57977. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 1999
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.1 percent, and both the coincident and lagging indexes increased 0.2 percent in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators show aggregate economic activity growing at about a 3.25 percent annualized pace in the 1st quarter of 1999 (compared to a 4.5 percent increase in the advance estimate of GDP). The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion for at least six more months. Cyclical imbalances and related conditions are unlikely to jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57978. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 1999
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in February. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of about 3 percent (annualized) in the 1st quarter of 1999. The leading indicators show odds are high that the expansion will continue through at least late-1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57979. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 1999
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show generally healthy conditions: The coincident indicators show that, although industrial production fell slightly, the first quarter of 1999 started on a positive note. The leading indicators are almost unanimous in predicting continued growth through at least the middle of the year. Signs of cyclical imbalances and other factors that might jeopardize the economy's stability remain relatively subdued.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57980. The Chechen Problem: Sources, Developments and Future Prospects
- Author:
- Alexandru Liono
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The political, economic and social situation in Chechnya is a matter of concern for all the analysts of the current environment in the North Caucasus. Every day brings about new developments in Chechnya, which can hardly be characterised as encouraging. The more recent events, which culminated with the intervention in Chechnya and the siege of Grozny by the Russian Federal troops in November – December 1999, have raised even more questions about the future of the Caucasus.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and North Caucasus
57981. Denmark and the Northern Dimension
- Author:
- Bertel Heurlin
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This country study consists of three parts. First some introductory observations aiming at placing the Northern dimension concept in a broader context. Secondly, a description of the Danish participation in Baltic sea- activities and programs. Thirdly, an overview of the official Danish position.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
57982. The International System of the 21st Century
- Author:
- Bertel Heurlin
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- In 1969, 30 years ago, a large portion of the earth's population had to revise their conception of the world. Pictures of Earth as seen from the moon taken by American astronauts made a considerable impression. The pictures portrayed a very beautiful planet - shining, inviting, sunny, fertile, full of life and beauty. This was Spaceship Earth, a spaceship apparently characterised more by nature than by culture. The spaceship Earth appears hospitable and yet vulnerable. It faces space, communicating. It is a spaceship the population of which lives on the outside in stead of within.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
57983. And Never the Twain Shall Meet ? The EU's Quest for Legitimacy and Enlargement
- Author:
- Lykke Friis and Anna Murphy
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The European Union in the 1990s is a contested, open-ended polity. It regulates almost as many policy-issues as nation-states and has been accepted by politicians, interest groups and many parts of the public as an appropriate framework for policy-making. Despite the increasing importance of the EU there is however no consensus about what the EU actually is, yet alone where it is heading. The ever-expanding agenda of integration in the 1990s has also led to considerable public scepticism towards the EU-project. Indeed, legitimacy crisis and democratic deficit have become the codewords in the literature and practice of European integration in the 1990s.
- Topic:
- Politics and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe
57984. EU and Legitimacy - The Challenge of Compatibility: A Danish Case Study
- Author:
- Lykke Friis and Anna Murphy
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Since the difficulties of ratifying the Maastricht Treaty legitimacy has topped the EU's agenda. Departing from the dominating trend in the literature that the EU's legitimacy problems are largely due to the EU's inability to develop a common identity, which can compete or even replace national identities, this article shifts the focus to compatibility. The core legitimacy test is whether the EU and its member states – as a multidimensional governance system, in which nation states persist alongside supranational institutions – can develop identities, which are compatible. Based on this approach the article analyses the ratification debate on the Treaty of Amsterdam in one Member State, namely Denmark. Its core conclusion is that it is indeed important to abandon the traditional conceptualisation of EU legitimacy. As the Danish case shows legitimacy can be enhanced if member states are able to (re)construe the EU as being compatible with national identity.
- Topic:
- Nationalism and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe
57985. Japanese Entrepreneurship: Can the Silicon Valley Model Be Applied to Japan?
- Author:
- Katsuhiro Nakagawa
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Since 1992, the Japanese economy has been utterly stagnant, with signs of weak performance at every turn. Since 1997, Japan's economy has experienced negative growth, a situation unprecedented in the postwar era. Most large Japanese corporations have engaged in extensive restructuring during this period, which has in turn contributed to 4.8 percent unemployment—higher than rates in the United States. Further, in 1998, the closure rate of small companies (3.8 percent) exceeded the start-up rate of new business ventures (3.7 percent).
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Asia
57986. Accessing Venture Capital in India
- Author:
- Rafiq Dossani
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- In the 1970s, IT exports from India began with “body-shopping,” also known as contract programming. In such contracts, the amount of code was specified in the contract and there was relatively little risk. Until 1991, this was the main form of IT exports, and it was per- formed exclusively by Indian firms. Foreign firms were deliberately excluded as a matter of government policy. It was a difficult business environment. Indian firms that were exporting bodies, as well as firms that operated only in the domestic market, found themselves operat- ing in a closed economy, featuring high tariffs on hardware imports and non-tariff barriers on software imports. Quite by accident, this situation led to a growth of skills that would be of great value to India a few years later. India's UNIX talents, now globally in demand due to the growth of the Internet, developed because the country's closed economy forced Indian computer makers to develop their own hardware and software design skills. Sridhar Mitta noted that, in 1983, the United States used an Intel 386 microprocessor as the base for a simple personal computer, whereas India employed the same microprocessor with the UNIX operating system to power mainframes that controlled large enterprises. India's closed environment also spurred the country's IT industry to develop advanced skills in system design, architecture, protocol stacks, compilers, device drivers, and boards.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, India, and Asia
57987. Assessing U.S. Bilateral Security Alliances in the Asia Pacific's "Southern Rim": Why the San Francisco System Endures
- Author:
- William T. Tow
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- At the turn of the century, the United States' postwar alliance network remains a key component of its international security policy. That policy is fundamentally based on maintaining military superiority over current and potential rivals in the Eurasian landmass.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Eurasia, Asia, and San Francisco
57988. Containment by Stealth: Chinese Views of and Policies toward America's Alliances with Japan and Korea after the Cold War
- Author:
- Yu Bin
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- At the height of the Cold War, the dominant Western theories of alliance building in interstate relations argued that alliances tend to be motivated more by an external need to confront a clearly defined common adversary than by the domestic attributes of alliance partners. The newly reinvigorated U.S.-Japan alliance, however, together with the newly expanded NATO, seems to depart from the conventional pattern by emphasizing shared democratic values and by maintaining a high degree of ambiguity regarding the goals and targets of the alliance. Although these new features of American-led military alliances provide an anchor in an other- wise highly fluid situation in the post–Cold War world, many Chinese foreign-and defense-policy analysts believe that U.S. alliances with Asian countries, particularly with Japan, pose a serious, long-term challenge, if not a threat, to China's national security, national unification, and modernization. The ambiguity of the revised U.S.-Japan security alliance means that it is at best searching for targets and at worst aiming at China.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Asia, and Korea
57989. Catch-Up; Why Poor Countries Are Becoming Richer, Democratic, Increasingly Peaceable, and Sometimes More Dangerous
- Author:
- Henry S. Rowen
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- It is easy to be confused about the world's prospect. On the one hand, since the collapse of the Soviet Union and its empire, many millions of people have been freed from economic and political shackles that had long kept them under authoritarian rule and in poverty—or at least far poorer than they should be. On the other hand, several parts of the world are beset by political turmoil and conflicts, rapid population increases, and falling incomes.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Development, Emerging Markets, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- Soviet Union
57990. Crisis and Aftermath: The Prospects for Institutional Change in Japan
- Author:
- Rafiq Dossani
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Impelled in large part by the nearly decade-long stagnation of the Japanese economy, institutions in Japan are undergoing fundamental changes. When Professors Masahiko Aoki, of the Stanford University Department of Economics, and Henry Rowen, director of the Asia/Pacific Research Center, were talking about these changes, they realized that an international conference on the subject would be useful and informative. With funding from the Asia/ Pacific Research Center and the Institute for International Studies, a distinguished group of speakers, commentators, and participants was brought together for a one-day conference to look at institutional changes in three distinct sectors of Japanese society: the political system, the bureaucracy, and corporations.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Asia
57991. Nesting the Alliances in the Emerging Context of Asia-Pacific Multilateral Processes: A U.S. Perspective
- Author:
- Douglas Paal
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- As Americans consider their options for protecting and advancing their interests in Asia in the twenty-first century, it is natural that there will be wide-ranging views and vigorous debate. Recent events such as the 1996 Taiwan crisis, the Asian economic meltdown in 1997, and the exchange of state visits by presidents Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin in 1997 and 1998 have intensified, then moderated and redirected, much of the debate over a very short span of time. Two years ago, for example, the Chinese were worrying aloud about American efforts to “encircle” China. Now they talk about “building a constructive strategic partnership with the U.S.” Despite these ups and downs, however, the fundamental choices for the United States have remained largely the same.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, Taiwan, and Asia
57992. When Realism and Liberalism Coincide: Russian Views of U.S. Alliances in Asia
- Author:
- Andrew C. Kuchins and Alexei V. Zagorsky
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Contemporary discussions of virtually any aspect of Russian foreign and security policy must take as their point of departure the extraordinarily weakened condition of the Russian Federation. There is no comparable case of such a rapid and dramatic decline in the status of a great power during peacetime in modern history. The Russian economy has been in a virtual free fall for most of the 1990s. The World Bank estimated the Russian GNP in 1997, using fixed exchange rates not adjusted for purchasing power parity, at $403.5 billion, making Russia the twelfth-largest economy in the world, just ahead of the Netherlands and just behind South Korea. Russian per capita GNP of $2,740 ranked fifty-first in the world and was in the category of “low middle” income countries. In 1997 the Russian GNP was about 5 percent of that of the United States, 8 percent adjusted for purchasing power parity. The figures for 1998 will be even starker given the devaluation of the ruble to approximately 30 percent of its 1997 value and continuing overall economic decline. A back-of-the-envelope calculation would have Russian GNP at the end of 1998 at no more than $120 billion and per capita GNP at less than $1,000.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Asia, South Korea, and Netherlands
57993. Adjusting America's Two Alliances in East Asia: A Japanese View
- Author:
- Takashi Inoguchi
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The alliances of the United States in East Asia are in a process of profound change (Okimoto 1998). The treaties with Japan and Korea are undergoing distinctive metamorphoses. These changes are the result of a number of forces that unfolded over the decades of the twentieth century, most notably the Cold War, globalization, and democratization (Inoguchi 1993, 1995; and Archibugi, Held, and Koehler 1996).
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, East Asia, and Asia
57994. Changing Relations between Party, Military, and Government in North Korea and Their Impact on Policy Direction
- Author:
- Jinwook Choi
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- North Korea has recently exhibited some noteworthy changes. In September 1998 it amended its constitution to change the power structure and introduced a number of progressive clauses. It also began to use the slogan “A Strong and Prosperous Nation,” which emphasizes economic prosperity as well as political, ideological, and military strength.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and Latin America
57995. China and the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Korea Alliances in a Changing Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Chu Shulong
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The American security alliances with Japan and South Korea have been a major concern of China's foreign and defense policies. China's position toward the alliances is determined by its foreign policy and security theories, doctrines, and principles; by its approach to a regional security mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region; by its bilateral relations with countries in Northeast Asia; and by incidental issues such as territorial disputes in Asia in which it is involved.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea
57996. New Estimates of the United States - China Trade Balances
- Author:
- Lawrence J. Lau and K.C. Fung
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The United States and China have vastly different official estimates of the bilateral trade imbalance. The U.S. figures show that the United States had a merchandise trade deficit of US$57 billion vis-à-vis China in 1998 whereas the Chinese figures show that China had a merchandise trade surplus of only US$21 billion vis-à-vis the United States. There is a difference of US$36 billion. Which set of figures is right?
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
57997. Seoul Domestic Policy and the Korean-American Alliance
- Author:
- B.C. Koh
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- While domestic politics helps to shape foreign policy, the two do not necessarily covary. That is to say, fundamental change in the former may not always trigger corresponding change in the latter. This is especially true of an alliance relationship, for a shared perception of an external threat that helps to sustain such a relationship is frequently unaffected by domestic political change.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Asia, and Korea
57998. Japan-ROK Security Relations: An American Perspective
- Author:
- Michael J. Green
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This monograph explores contemporary Japan-ROK security relations from the perspective of U.S. strategic interests in Asia. Japan and the Republic of Korea have been aligned but not allied since the beginning of the Cold War, and the United States has long been frustrated in its desire to strengthen the Japan-ROK leg of its network of bilateral alliances in Asia. The United States abandoned the goal of encouraging a formal U.S.-Japan-ROK alliance early on in the Cold War, and in the current strategic environment a trilateral alliance would probably be counterproductive. At the same time, however, the fluidity of East Asian security relations today has heightened the dangers of leaving the Japan-ROK security relationship in an ambiguous state. Closer Japan-ROK security cooperation will enhance U.S. efforts to maintain forward presence, manage diplomacy and potential crises on the Korean Peninsula, and integrate China as a cooperative partner in the region. In contrast, distant Japan-ROK relations would complicate all of these U.S. objectives. Hostile Japan-ROK relations, particularly in the context of Korean reunification, would have a spillover effect on Sino-U.S. relations and could return the region to the great-power rivalry of the last century.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea
57999. The Korean-American Alliance and the "Rise of China": A Preliminary Assessment of Perceptual Changes and Strategic Choices
- Author:
- Jae Ho Chung
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Does history repeat itself? It appears so for Korea as an unfortunate geopolitical pawn of its stronger neighbors for the last century or so. History does not seem to repeat in quite the same way, however. As Chinese diplomat Huang Zunxian recommended in 1880 that Chosun (Korea's official designation during the Yi Dynasty) “side with the Qing” ( qinzhong ) while relegating the relative importance of Japan and the United States to the levels of “aligning and connecting” ( jieri and lianmei ), respectively, Korea remained for the most part the most loyal subsystem of the Sinic world order, thereby missing out on opportunities for self-strengthening and realignment and eventually becoming a Japanese colony. More than a hundred years later, the Republic of Korea (hereafter Korea) may now be about to confront a similar dilemma, but this time with a reversed order of preferences. That is to say, the rise of China, with which Korea has already accomplished diplomatic normalization, may gradually force the Seoul government to reconfigure its Cold War–based strategic thinking and reassess its half-century alliance relationship with the United States.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Korea
58000. Asian Alliances and American Politics
- Author:
- Michael H. Armacost
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The domestic politics of our Asian alliances is like the story of the dog that didn't bark. Though our defense ties with Japan and Korea were forged in the Cold War, nearly ten years after the Berlin Wall came down, few voices are being raised to amend, let alone terminate, either the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan or the U.S.-Korea Mutual Defense Treaty. Although large numbers of U.S. troops remain in both countries, congressional criticisms of allied “free riding” are rarely heard. Our alliances with Japan and Korea provoke little discernible opposition from the Congress, the press, or the general public. Polling data suggests that public support for the alliances and for forward deployments in both countries remains high. And no prominent leaders of the Congress are threatening to link security concerns to outstanding economic issues with the Japanese or South Koreans—a tactic frequently utilized a decade ago.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Asia, and Korea