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57802. American Evenhandedness in the Mideast Peace Process: Lessons From Camp David II and the Al-Aqsa Intifada
- Author:
- Saul Singer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Ask Israelis or Arabs to characterize the U.S.-Israel relationship and most, particularly on the Arab side, will argue that the picture is one of unwavering support for the Jewish state. Indeed, the outgoing Clinton administration has been widely perceived and labeled as the closest to Israel in the history of the U.S.-Israel relationship. Though the ties between the U.S. and Israel are indeed close, deep, and institutionalized, a closer examination reveals a constant tension between support for Israel and "evenhandedness" between Israel and the Arab world.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
57803. Israel's Major Economic Challenge: Closing the Gap in the Field of Business Economics
- Author:
- Manfred Gerstenfeld
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Why is it that Israel's per capita GNP still lags substantially behind that of the leading countries of the world? Why is it likely to take decades for the Israeli economy to catch up? This is while the Israeli papers are full of news about very promising high-tech start-ups, and we even hear occasionally about payments of billions of dollars by major foreign firms to acquire Israeli businesses which were founded a few years ago and have at most several hundred employees.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
57804. Factors Impeding the Implementation of Privatization
- Author:
- Yaakov Ne'eman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- A number of factors are impeding the implementation of privatization in the Israeli economy. Here I will review those factors based on my own experience, both as someone who has represented investors who purchased government companies through privatization processes, and (from the other side of the fence) in my positions in the Ministry of Finance, when I had an opportunity to observe the governmental process from the inside.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, Privatization, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
57805. The "Post-Secular" Era
- Author:
- Eliezer Schweid
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- With the completion of the process of secularization within the Jewish people, it is now clear that secularism is no substitute for religion. Despite the influence of materialism and the unprecedented control of man over nature and over himself, the need for religion has intensified due to continuing moral, social, and spiritual-existential problems and the profound human need for a connection with the sources, and for continuity and permanence. The time has come for the representatives of religious and secularist movements to begin a substantive dialogue that will enable creative life together.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
57806. Interpretations of Jewish Tradition on Democracy, Land, and Peace
- Author:
- Gerald M. Steinberg
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- During the past twenty years, beginning with the Israeli-Egyptian disengagement talks following the 1973 war, the tension between secular and religious perspectives on the Middle East peace process and the "land for peace" formula has grown steadily.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt
57807. A New Paradigm For Arab-Israeli Peacemaking: A Comprehensive Regional System For Security and Cooperation
- Author:
- Abraham Tamir
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Over the last two decades, the reliance on separate negotiating tracks in the Arab-Israeli peace process has resulted in a cumulative loss of territories vital for the defense of Israel's very existence, without any corresponding buildup of peace and security for Israel that could last for generations. The military capabilities of Israel's potential adversaries have not diminished, but, in fact, have expanded considerably. The normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world, as stipulated in the peace treaties between Israel, Jordan and Egypt, has not advanced, but, rather, has been held hostage to further Israeli concessions in each of the separate negotiating tracks. Finally, the employment of terrorism and violence by Israel's neighbors became part of the negotiating process with Syria and the PLO.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Egypt
57808. The Emerging Threat of Iraq and the Crisis of Global Security
- Author:
- Richard Butler
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Ten years ago the UN Security Council imposed upon Iraq some very specific requirements for disarmament. After Iraq had been expelled from Kuwait, the Council decided unanimously that Iraq may not have nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons; or missiles which could fly beyond 150 km. The Security Council's decisions were taken with the full authority of international law.
- Topic:
- Security, International Law, Religion, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, and Arabia
57809. The Role of Islam in Contemporary South East Asian Politics
- Author:
- Colin Rubenstein
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- The political influence of Islam is increasing in South East Asia. While the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Communist bloc have contributed to the decline of communism as a revolutionary political force in the region, religious and ethnic issues are now assuming renewed and increasing significance. Religious divisions based on Islam have exacerbated ethnic differences, and some religiously-oriented groups are engaging in violent and extreme acts that pose a potentially serious long-term threat to stability in the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Soviet Union, Arabia, and Southeast Asia
57810. Religion and the Public Square: Attitudes of American Jews in Comparative Perspective - Part Two
- Author:
- Steven M. Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Attitudes toward separation-accommodation are related to support for (or opposition to) the expression of religion in public life. Within each of the three samples, church-state separationists were more likely than accommodationists to oppose expanded religious influence in society and the involvement of churches and church leaders in political affairs. Table 5 contains several relevant questions in this domain.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States
57811. Prime Minister Barak's First Year: Diplomacy and Politics
- Author:
- Zalman Shoval
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Prime Minister Ehud Barak's tenure started out with almost everything going his way. He had what was often, though misleadingly, described as a "landslide victory" in the 1999 elections (though, in truth, Jewish voters gave him only a slim 3.2 percent majority over Netanyahu - compared to the almost 12 percent margin by which Netanyahu had defeated Peres in the previous elections). Nonetheless, it is true that Barak achieved better electoral results than most other prime ministers in Israeli history. As a result, no Israeli prime minister in recent memory had begun his term with a greater degree of goodwill from different segments of the population - including many who had voted for the other candidate.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Diplomacy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
57812. Setting the Terms of Reference: Daniel J. Elazar's Impact on American Jewish Organizational Life
- Author:
- Gerald B. Bubis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- A giant of the twentieth century left us when Daniel J. Elazar succumbed to an illness on December 2, 1999, at age 65. His career was unique, and much will be written of his multifaceted contributions over the decades to the fields of political science and political theory. While he was known in the world at large for his brilliant theoretical work on the nature of federalism and its applications in government in America and abroad, this analysis looks at the wide-ranging impact of Daniel Elazar on the American Jewish community.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States
57813. Middle East Missile Proliferation, Israeli Missile Defense, and the ABM Treaty Debate
- Author:
- Dore Gold
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- For most of the Cold War period, the spread of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction to the Middle East was severely constrained by the existence of a global regime of arms control agreements and export controls that was chiefly supported by both the U.S. and the Soviet Union. But in the last decade this regime has crumbled: In the Middle East, Iran and Iraq are seeking to build their own indigenous military-industrial infrastructure for the manufacture of intermediate-range (500-5,000 kilometers) missiles, and thus reduce their dependence on imports of whole missile systems, as was the case in the 1970s and 1980s. Intercontinental strategic-range systems are also planned. These efforts are being backed not just by other rogue states, like North Korea, but by no less than Russia itself, which has abandoned the cautiousness toward proliferation that was demonstrated by the former Soviet Union. Despite Washington's efforts to stop these trends through the United Nations monitoring of Iraq and limited sanctions against Iran, the build-up of Middle Eastern missile capabilities has only worsened, especially since 1998 which saw Iran's testing of the 1,300-kilometer-range Shahab-3 and the total collapse of the UN monitoring effort. Iraq has preserved considerable elements of its missile manufacturing infrastructure, continuing to produce short-range missiles, and with large amounts of missile components still unaccounted for. Nor did the administration stop the flow of Russian missile technology to Iran. "The proliferation of medium-range ballistic missiles," CIA Director George Tenet testified on March 21, 2000, "is significantly altering strategic balances in the Middle East and Asia." Clearly, the Middle East is far more dangerous for Israel than it was in 1991 at the end of the Gulf War. While diplomatic energies over the last decade have been focused on the Arab-Israeli peace process, a major policy failure has taken place that has left Israel and the Middle East far less secure. Not only will Israel's vulnerability increase, but on the basis of these planned missile programs, the vulnerability of Europe and the Eastern United States is likely to be far greater in the next five to ten years, as well. Thus, an entirely new strategic situation is emerging in the Middle East requiring far more intense efforts in ballistic missile defense on the part of the states of the Atlantic Alliance in order to assure their own security and enhance Middle Eastern regional stability. With Russia playing such a prominent role in the disintegration of key elements of the proliferation regime, Moscow's objections to robust missile defenses on the basis of the ABM Treaty should not serve as a constraint on the development and deployment of future missile defense systems. The Russian argument that the ABM Treaty is the cornerstone of global arms control rings hollow. The arms control regime for the Middle East has completely broken down and cannot reliably serve as the primary basis for protecting national security in the new strategic environment of this region. The most promising way of assuring the defense of Israel, the U.S., and the Western alliance is through a concerted effort to neutralize the growing missile threat with robust missile defenses, combined with the deterrence capabilities that they already possess.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Soviet Union
57814. The End of the Post-Gulf War Era
- Author:
- Dore Gold
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Three basic conditions prevailed when the Arab-Israeli peace process began in 1991 in Madrid and accelerated in 1993 at Oslo. First, the Soviet Union crumbled and eventually collapsed, removing what had since 1955 been the strategic backbone of the Arab military option against the State of Israel. Second, Iraq was militarily crushed and under both UN sanctions and monitoring, and was therefore removed from the political and military calculus of relations between Israel and the Arab world. Third, Iran was still recovering from its eight-year war with Iraq and was far from ready to have an impact in the Middle East. Together, these three conditions created a unique moment of Pax Americana, maintained not just by virtue of American power, but by the consent of its potential rivals.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, War, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Soviet Union
57815. Overthrowing Saddam Hussein: The Policy Debate
- Author:
- Max Singer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi dictator, has biological weapons capable of killing hundreds of thousands of Israelis with infectious diseases such as anthrax. These weapons could be delivered either by missiles, by small pilotless planes, or by infecting the passengers of a plane landing at Ben-Gurion Airport with less than an ounce of agent spread through the plane's air conditioning system. Saddam also has at least several nuclear weapons that are missing only highly enriched uranium which he is likely to be able either to make himself or to buy this year.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
57816. The Pope's Millennium Visit to Israel
- Author:
- Dan V. Segre
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the 1950s, the French Catholic academician, playwright, and former Ambassador to the U.S., Paul Claudel, asked the cultural attachè of the Israeli Embassy in Paris to convey the following message to Martin Buber: Now that the Jews had recovered their sovereignty, would they consider granting citizenship to Jesus, thereby putting an end to his "statelessness" status both for Judaism and Christianity? This could contribute to the fight against anti-Semitism.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Paris
57817. Bringing Peace in from Without: How to End the Cold War in Korea
- Author:
- Tong Whan Park
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- From June 13 to 15, 2000, the first-ever summitry was held between the two Koreas since the peninsula's division at the end of World War II. The two heads of state produced a five-point agreement2 designed to launch an era of dialogue between the erstwhile enemies. As part of the agreement, a limited number of people with separated families have since traveled to each other's capital for a tearful reunion. The ground has been broken to re-link the countries by rail that would pass through the Demilitarized Zone. Bureaucrats of the two countries have engaged in a flurry of activity including high level talks and the historic visit by North Korea's defense minister to the South. Seoul's chaebols also got themselves busy to jump aboard the bandwagon heading north. And the new mood of detente peaked at the opening ceremony of the 27th Olympiad in Sydney when athletes from the two Koreas—albeit competing as separate national teams—marched together following a hastily concocted flag with an image of the Korean peninsula.
- Political Geography:
- North Korea, Korea, Sydney, and Korean Peninsula
57818. Economic Recovery in the DPRK: Status and Prospect
- Author:
- Nicholas Eberstadt
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- Early in September 2000, a front- page story in the Washington Post nicely captured the newly prevailing view among international "North Korea watchers" concerning the DPRK economy's current condition and immediate outlook.. The article, titled "North Korea Back From The Brink", reported that "[visitors and other analysts] say the North Korean economy is growing for the first time in nine years, the mass starvation is over....". It remarked upon "nascent signs of recovery—more traffic on the roads, more livestock in the fields, peasants who look healthy." The story further noted that the Republic of Korea Bank of Korea (BOK) recently "concluded—with some surprise—that the North's economy grew last year by a sustainable 6.2 percent, the first growth since 1990", and quoted the South Korean central bank as stating that "it's reasonable to predict that the worst is over for the North Korean economy".
- Political Geography:
- Washington, South Korea, and North Korea
57819. Monitoring the Dynamics of Democratization in Korea: The Korea Democracy Barometer Surveys
- Author:
- Doh Chull Shin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- The past decade has witnessed a growth in major efforts to study mass reactions to democratic regime change on a global scale. Since 1991 Professor Richard Rose, of the Center for the Study of Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland, has been conducting the New Democracies Barometer surveys and the New Russia and Baltic Barometer surveys to compare the mass experience of democratization in post-Communist countries. Since 1995 Dr. Mata Lagos, of Market Opinion Research International in Santiago, Chile, has been conducting the Latinobarometro surveys on an annual basis to trace and compare the levels and sources of popular support for democracy and democratic reforms in 15 Latin American countries along with Spain. Most recently, in1999, Professor Michael Bratton of Michigan State University in the United States and Robert Mattes of the Institute for Democracy in South Africa launched the Afrobarometer to map mass attitudes toward democracy, markets, and civil society in a dozen African countries.
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, United States, Latin America, Spain, Korea, and Scotland
57820. Korea-United States Industrial Alliance
- Author:
- Youn-Suk Kim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- Historically, Korea has been under the influence of its ambitious neighbors, China, Japan and Russia, which causes Korea's intense concern for its long-term independence. Through the budding signs of North-South Korea unification, Korea perceives that long-term peace and security derive from having a close diplomatic and economic relationship with the United States as the most crucial ingredient. Thus President Kim Dae Jung of South Korea and his counterpart of the North, Kim Jong II, at the June meeting emphasized the continued presence of United States troops in the Korean peninsula for stability and peace in East Asia even after the unification. In association with the United States economy, the unified Korea could play a major role as a regional balancer, giving stability to a new order in Northeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole.
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Japan, China, Korea, and Northeast Asia
57821. Economic Voting in Korean Elections after Democratization
- Author:
- Hyeon-Woo Lee
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- Many factors influence the electoral results. One of them in the western countries is the economic condition. Whether they are personal or national economic conditions, the importance of economic factors in elections cannot be ignored. This paper focuses on economic voting and investigates whether economic voting worked in the Korean elections after 1987. It is generally accepted that Korean democratization was achieved in 1987. Before that year, democratization was the prevailing issue in elections because many Koreans still thought that the government was an authoritarian regime. Though the opposition parties insisted political democracy as first priority and urgent task required for Korea to accomplish, the ruling parties emphasized efficient and fast economic development led by ruling elites.
- Political Geography:
- Korea
57822. The Global Community of Overseas Koreans: The Chinese Koreans and the Korean Americans A Vision for the Future
- Author:
- Chong-Wook Chung
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- I feel deeply honored to be invited to this annual meeting of the International Council on Korean Studies and to deliver a keynote speech on overseas Koreans. I would like to express my profound gratitude to Professor I lpyong Kim, President of the Council, and others who worked so hard to make this timely and important annual meeting a success. Before I start, let me make some preliminary remarks. First, I do not believe I can speak on behalf of the government of Korea. I left the government two years ago to return to the academic community. Second, I do not consider myself, either as a scholar or as a former government official, an expert on the subject of overseas Koreans. The best claim I can make in this connection is the fact that while I was serving as the senior secretary for national security and foreign policy for the President for two years in 1993 and 1994, my responsibilities included the affairs of overseas Koreans.
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Korea
57823. Offering Behavior of Korean Presbyterian Church Members: A Comparative Analysis with African American and Hispanic Groups
- Author:
- Kwang Chung Kim and Shin Kim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- A church as an organization is a normative and an ideological institution. In America, it is a voluntary organization as well. Just like any other similar organization, a church needs a financial resource for its operation and goal achievement. Without it, a church is not able to operate or survive. Thus, developing and maintaining a system of financial resource acquisition and allocation is the indispensable prerequisite for a church. As a voluntary association, a church's financial resource is heavily derived from voluntary donations of its members. Although church members can confer their financial support to their church in various ways, the major portion of a church's financial resource comes from its members' regular offerings at worship services. This study is the first attempt to analyze empirically the regular offerings of Korean Presbyterian church members in a comparison with those of African American and Hispanic Presbyterians.
- Political Geography:
- Africa, America, and Korea
57824. An Analysis of Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Variations in Types of Voluntary Associations in the Korean American Community
- Author:
- Eui Hang Shin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- Knoke asserts that "a minimal definition of a voluntary association is a formally organized named group, most of whose members are not financially recompensed for their participation." As Sills notes, all non-state, common-purpose organizations with voluntary memberships may be considered voluntary associations - organizations whose existence is dependent upon freedom of association. A review of the literature, however, reveals that substantial variations exist in the definition of voluntary associations. For example, previous studies of voluntary associations differ with regard to the inclusion or exclusion of such organizations as labor unions, churches, business and trade associations, political parties, professional societies, and philanthropic groups. There is, nevertheless, a consensus that "the voluntary association is a nonprofit, non-government, private group which an individual joins by choice," and that voluntary associations are "sparetime, participatory associations" to which people belong without pay. Voluntary associations have offices filled through established procedures, periodic scheduled meetings, qualifying criteria for membership, and some formalized division of labor, although organizations do not necessarily exhibit all of these characteristics to the same degree.
- Political Geography:
- America and Korea
57825. Book Reviews: Myoung Chung Wilson, Korean Government Publications: An Introductory Guide.
- Author:
- Ilpyong J. Kim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- South Korea today has the eleventh largest economy in the world. Although recent setbacks placed a temporary brake on several decades of surging economic development, these obstacles have now been largely overcome. The Republic of Korea is proving once again that it has one of the most vibrant economies among advanced industrial countries. These gains have been accompanied by corollary advances in medicine, transportation, urban planning and agriculture, to name but a few areas of noteworthy development. In 1987 the country moved away from its authoritarian past and instituted a working democratic system. In short, the pace of change in the economy, in politics and in social life generally has been spectacular. It is entirely appropriate, therefore, that Korean achievements, as documented in a wide range of government publications, should now be made accessible, in English, to scholars, policy makers and the interested public. Korean Government Publications: An Introductory Guide is the first comprehensive English-language guide to this wealth of information, much of it published in both Korean and English. It is especially timely because of the recent upsurge in the number of government publications and because the mistrust of documents published under authoritarian regimes has dissipated with the advent of genuine democracy.
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and Korea
57826. Anti-Globalization Movements at the Cross-Roads
- Author:
- Raimo Väyrynen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- Although it appears to be growing in strength and numbers, the anti-globalization protest movement is now at a cross-roads. The core of the anti-globalization movement, which is rooted in social justice and human rights, has been unable to control violent fringe groups. Furthermore, international economic agencies such as the World Bank and the IMF have been surprisingly responsive, expanding and accelerating their policies on debt relief and strengthening their focus on the mitigation of poverty. The protest movement thus faces the challenge of developing new instrumental goals for the next phase.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Human Rights, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Washington
57827. The European Union's New Crisis Management Capability
- Author:
- Raimo Väyrynen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- To the surprise of most observers, the European Union is moving quickly toward the establishment of its own crisis management capability. In its June 1999 meeting in Cologne the European Council concluded that the Union must have "the capacity for autonomous action, backed up by credible military force, the means to decide to use them, and a readiness to do so, in order to respond to international crises without prejudice to actions by NATO." The Council pledged to develop an effective EU-led military crisis management capacity in which all EU members, both NATO and non-allied countries, would participate on an equal footing. The new force will perform the so-called Petersberg tasks: humanitarian and rescue operations, peacekeeping, and the use of combat forces in crisis management, including peacemaking.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
57828. Preventing a Nuclear Arms Race in South Asia
- Author:
- David Cortright and Samina Ahmed
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- The United States must unequivocally demand that India and Pakistan join the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as non-nuclear weapon states. The United States should retain punitive sanctions which target Indian and Pakistani institutions and policymakers responsible for their nuclear weapons programs. Targeted incentives should be provided that seek to diminish internal support for nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan. The United States should fulfill its obligation under Article VI of the NPT to achieve global nuclear disarmament.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and South Asia
57829. New Answers To Old Questions: Explaining The Slow Adoption Of Ring Spinning In Lancashire, 1880-1913
- Author:
- Timothy Leunig
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- This paper re-examines theories previously advanced to explain Lancashire's slow adoption of ring spinning. New cost estimates show that although additional transport costs and technical complementarities between certain types of machine reduced ring adoption rates, these supply side constraints were not dominant. Instead what mattered most were demand side factors. Lancashire produced far more fine yarns than other countries and that yarn was better spun on mules. Furthermore, Lancashire had a sizeable export yarn trade, a market again more suited to mule spinning. Low ring adoption rates were a positive response to demand patterns dominated by high quality goods.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom
57830. The 'Labour Question' in Nineteenth Century Brazil: Railways, Export Agriculture and Labour Scarcity
- Author:
- Lucia Lamounier
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- This paper examines changing patterns of labour relations in nineteenth-century Brazil associated with the building of railways and expansion of export agriculture. It addresses the 1850s-1880s period, decades when the `labour question' became a pressing issue for contemporaries. The extinction of the trans-Atlantic slave trade in 1850 posed the problem of finding alternative supplies of labour at a time of increasing agro-export production. In 1852 effective action to start the building of railways was taken. As part of efforts to improve conditions in the sugar and coffee sectors, several concessions were approved. From the middle of the century through to the 1870s, the expansion of coffee cultivation and railway construction were closely inter-related phenomena in the southern provinces of Brazil and shaped the debate about labour. The 1870s was a key decade. First, these years witnessed a `railway mania' - a great fever of building new lines and branches in various regions of the country, especially in the new coffee districts. Second, concern about the labour question intensified with the approval in 1871 of the Rio Branco Law which provided for the gradual emancipation of slaves. From then until 1888, when slavery was finally abolished, several policies were implemented trying to solve the problem of labour supply and to set new patterns of labour relations. This involved the arrival of thousands of immigrants in the 1880s, imported with government aid, to support the near-continuous expansion of coffee cultivation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
57831. Distribution Dynamics: Stratification, Polarization and Convergence Among OECD Economies, 1870-1992
- Author:
- Philip Epstein
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Since the 1980s the debate about economic convergence has dominated empirical work about the dynamics of growth. Economic historians have been attracted, in particular, by stories of club convergence. However, the analytical foundations of most of the work in this area have rested on linear, or more usually log-linear, regression analysis. Thus, the results tend to be dependent on a conditional average in which time is the dominant player. This is surprising as space, and issues of distribution, have long been important to both theorists and historians. A notable exception to the 'regression school' has been the work on distribution dynamics pioneered in a series of papers by Danny Quah (1993, 1996, 1997). He believes that only by considering the issues of growth and distribution simultaneously can we understand their underlying dynamics. He has argued, for example, that there is no simple causal relationship between the concepts of β-convergence and σ- convergence and that similar stories of global (or club) convergence may be driven by very different stories of individual economy mobility. This is an approach that should appeal to economic historians (both because it can encompass a rich diversity of individual economy experience and because it emphasises that same diversity). We hope to illustrate this by considering the experience of some of the leading OECD economies since 1870 within an explicit distribution dynamics framework.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom
57832. Competition and Innovation in 1950's Britain
- Author:
- Stephen Broadberry and Nicholas Crafts
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- We find little support for the Schumpeterian hypothesis of a positive relationship between market power and innovation in 1950's Britain even though many economists and policymakers accepted it at the time. Price-fixing agreements were very widespread prior to the 1956 Restrictive Practices Act and they seem to have had adverse effects on costs and productivity. Competition policy appears to have been much too lenient but the productivity problems of British industry at this time are best viewed as arising largely from the difficulties of reaping the benefits of innovation rather than from a failure to innovate per se.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Britain and United Kingdom
57833. From Economic Convergence to Convergence in Affluence? Income Growth, Household Expenditure and the Rise of Mass Consumption in Britain and West Germany, 1950-1974
- Author:
- Peter Kramper
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The “Golden Age” of post-war European economic growth has witnessed extraordinary changes not only in the economic, but also in the social and cultural outlook of Western European societies. Eric Hobsbawm's statement that “[h]istorians of the twentieth century in the third millennium will probably see the century's major impact on history as the one made by and in this astonishing period” is perhaps a little bit too enthusiastic; but it shows that the “Great Boom” has come to be regarded as a key period on the road to the present-day Western world. It has transformed the countries of the West and has at the same time made them more similar to each other. No matter what European societies were in 1950 by 1973, they were all, in Galbraith's famous.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Britain and Europe
57834. Market Integration in the North and Baltic Seas, 1500-1800
- Author:
- David Jacks
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Ever since the time of Adam Smith, the attribution to foreign trade of the ability to affect the wholesale transformation of the productive powers of an economy has remained a very powerful concept in both economics and economic history. At the heart of this interpretation is the observation that improvements in productivity are generated by the expansion of trade through the spreading of fixed costs and an increasing international division of labour.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom
57835. Development History
- Author:
- N.F.R. Crafts
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses some aspects of the changing relationship between the study of economic history and development economics. Forty years ago the subjects seemed to be quite closely linked in the sense that senior figures straddled both areas, the development history of the advanced countries was frequently studied with a view to deriving lessons for development policy and economic historians made big generalizations as to what these were. In the 1990s, things appear to have been very different. There is much less overlap between the fields of development and history, historians have largely retreated from the brash claims of the early postwar generation and less- developed countries have their own well-documented recent history from which to draw lessons. This state of affairs is clearly reflected in the most recent edition of Meier (1995) where the historical perspective on development is still derived largely from Gerschenkron and Rostow.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom
57836. Altruism and Imperialism: The Western Religious and Cultural Missionary Enterprise in the Middle East
- Author:
- Eleanor Doumato, Andrew Porter, Samir Khalaf, Reeva Simon, Elizabeth Thompson, Carolyn Goffman, Hans-Lukas Kieser, Jeremy Salt, Ruth Kark, Paul Sedra, Michael Zirinsky, Mahmoud Haddad, Linda Herrera, and Eleanor H. Tejirian
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The Western missionary enterprise in the Middle East, while in theory altruistic, has generally been considered part and parcel of Western imperialism and colonialism as it evolved in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. However, deconstruction of this enterprise reveals that it was by no means monolithic, nor was it necessarily directly related to or supportive of Western imperial ambitions. This project, of which a conference at the Rockefeller Foundation Conference Center in Bellagio, Italy, in August 2000 is a part, seeks to examine all aspects of the Western missionary enterprise in the Middle East, focusing on its political and social impact on the region as well as on its entanglement with the political and social currents of the Western countries from which it came. Furthermore, the premise of the project is that the missionary enterprise was also the forerunner of the activities of Western nongovernmental organizations in the region, setting the agenda and establishing the categories of these activities in areas including human rights, education, and economic development.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, Non-Governmental Organization, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
57837. Institutional Challenges and Opportunities in Environmentally Sound Trade Expansion: A Review of the Global State of Affairs
- Author:
- Aaron Cosbey
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- This paper surveys some of the key trade-sustainable development issues likely to be addressed in the coming years at the multilateral level that may have implications for the Americas. The study looks further to opportunities and threats at the domestic level and recommends a number of ways in which sustainable development might be advanced, striving to achieve environmental improvement and improved development prospects North and South. Whether in the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), or other similar forums, these are the types of solutions that will pass the acid test of political acceptability.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- America
57838. Moving Beyond Privatization in Latin America: The Government/Business Relationship
- Author:
- Robert Grosse
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- The outcomes of regulatory policies and regimes in Argentina, Chile, and Mexico since 1990 in the telecommunications, electric power, and banking sectors are explored in this paper. How should governments regulate these oligopolistic industries, once ownership of the sectors has been passed to private hands? How can governments manage these relationships successfully and see that the greatest benefits accrue to the country? What institutional structures can best handle the problems that arise in these situations? The paper addresses these questions and concludes that, while privatizations in these sectors have been predominantly positive in the 1990s, there is still considerable room for more competition.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Central America, and Mexico
57839. Making Sense of Environmental Security
- Author:
- Frank McNeil
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- The concept of environmental security—even after more than two decades of discussion—has no widely agreed-upon formulation. However, in the metaphor used by environmentalists, environmental security can be a “canary in the mine,” signaling conflicts within nations and across borders. While environmental insults may foster violence, conflicts short of war also impose high costs, wreaking damage to economies, to societal stability, to the effectiveness of political institutions, and to international cooperation. Recent examples of such conflicts and their costs can be seen in locales as diverse as the Western Hemisphere and Southeast Asia (for example, in Guatemala, the Philippines, Colombia, Indonesia, and Nicaragua's maritime and riparian disputes with Honduras and Costa Rica).
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Environment, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Caribbean
57840. Transnational Organized Crime: The Caribbean Context
- Author:
- Anthony T. Bryan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Were it not for the illegitimate character of their actions, transnational criminals could be lauded as pioneers and visionaries in the age of globalization. They have adopted facilitative and exacting measures to remain competitive, fashioned an enviable organizational culture of efficiency and accountability, and maximized the opportunities provided by globalization. They have been able to innovate, expand, and flourish in a furiously changing international scenario and have done so while being relatively cloaked, so that there is an aura of mystery and ambiguity about their operations.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean
57841. An Essay on Child Labor in Sub-Saharan Africa—A bargaining approach
- Author:
- Jens Chr.1 Andvig
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The separation of children from their families have a large number of social and economic aspects. At least the economic aspects are under-researched. At the point of transition of leaving their families somehow the children have to be considered as separate decisionmakers. This is the perspective I adopt in this essay. The question raised is whether poverty, changes in social norms or external shocks to the family system such as the AIDS epidemic, lead the children to prematurely fend for themselves in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa
57842. Security, integration and identity change
- Author:
- Pernille Rieker
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In this working paper Pernille Rieker attempts to contribute to a better understanding of both how the EU functions as a security system and what kind of impact the integration process has on national security identities. While security has always been the main reason behind the integration process, security and integration have usually been studied separately. Integration specialists have given more attention to economy than to security, and security experts have studied traditional security institutions and overlooked the EU. Rieker attempts to combine these two theoretical traditions by drawing on a combination of recent work on security communities and international socialisation. While the development in the Nordic countries will be used as brief examples in the final part of the paper, a more detailed analysis of these countries' security identities will follow in a forthcoming study.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Government
57843. Globalisation and industrial location: The impact of trade policy when geography matters
- Author:
- Arne Melchior
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The paper shows how industrial location and welfare depends on “most-favoured nation” (MFN) versus distance-related trade barriers, using a monopolistic competition model with regions located along a “Hotelling” line or on a square plain. Manufacturing production will cluster close to the periphery if transport costs are relatively high, but in central areas if MFN barriers are relatively high. The peripheries will be at a disadvantage, which increases when trade barriers are reduced. When countries or trading blocs are formed, a core-periphery pattern emerges within each of them. While lower transport costs create more centralisation within countries, lower MFN barriers between countries have the opposite effect.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
57844. Patterns of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa—A simple test of the new trade theory with multinationals
- Author:
- Lars C. Svindal and Leo A. Grünfeld
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In this study, we present an empirical survey of the patterns of trade and FDI in Africa based on a sample of 28 countries and their transactions with the OECD countries. These patterns are used to test whether the predictions of the new trade theory with multinationals as described by Markusen and Venables (1995,1998) fit the development in Africa. The theory states that multinational production will gradually outgrow trade as countries converge in terms of income, yet our econometric study gives only week evidence supporting such a pattern. Alternative explanations are also investigated,and it is shown that trade barriers, geographical distance, income per capita and access to ocean explain much of the variation in trade and FDI in Africa.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa
57845. Foreign Ownership, R, and Technology Sourcing
- Author:
- Leo A. Grünfeld
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the relationship between domestic R and the inflow of foreign capital through foreign direct investment and foreign ownership. The idea that firms invest in a foreign country in order to more easily absorb the knowledge and technology of foreign firms is tested empirically using a unique firm level data set covering foreign ownership and R for all Norwegian firms over the period 1990 to 1996. The study gives no clear evidence supporting the existence of such a motive behind foreign ownership. On the other hand, the econometric study indicates that foreign investors may try to exploit their technological advantages in the Norwegian market. The results also show that the degree of foreign ownership is more volatile when firms are highly R intensive. We hypothesize that this is due to the fact that large R investments often result in large losses as well as gains to the firms.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
57846. The Right Role for the IMF in Development
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall, John W. Sewell, and Kevin Morrison
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Horst Köhler faces immense challenges as the new Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But no challenge is more crucial than making sure the IMF plays the right role in developing countries. Too often, it is not playing that role now. The IMF's activities in the developing world have grown radically. Today, much of its work goes beyond macroeconomic issues and crisis prevention and management, into deeper structural issues. And as a major provider of long-term development finance, it is significantly involved in efforts to reduce poverty. But the IMF lacks expertise in the wide-ranging policy and institutional complexities of development and poverty reduction. Its expertise lies in macroeconomic policy and restoring stability amid financial crises. Macroeconomics is the same for poor and rich countries alike, as IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer has said. But much of what the IMF is involved in now is not macroeconomics. The Fund should focus on: short-term liquidity lending to all countries hit by macroeconomic crises; advising through policy dialogue; and collecting, assessing, and distributing information on countries with regard to macroeconomic policy and financial markets. While poor countries need access to the Fund's short-term lending and macroeconomic advice, the IMF should leave long-term development lending to the World Bank and to other lenders and donors expert in poverty reduction.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
- Political Geography:
- United States
57847. Reviewing U.S.-Nigeria Relations: New Links to Reinforce Democracy
- Author:
- Princeton Lyman and Linda Cotton
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Emerging from 15 years of military rule, the Republic of Nigeria is struggling to build a stable, peaceful democratic nation from its 200 ethnic groups divided among 36 states. In May 1999, retired General Olusegun Obasanjo was elected President-a repeat performance of his earlier role as catalyst for democratic change. In 1979, Obasanjo presided over the only transition to civilian rule until now. His democratic instincts won him three years in jail under former President Sani Abacha's brutally repressive military regime.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Nigeria
57848. Misplaced Charity Undermines Kosovo's Self-Reliance
- Author:
- Iain Guest
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- For ten years, the international community has sent large, expensive missions to rebuild war-torn societies-without considering their impact on local civil society. At a time when civil society is seen as a pillar of development, this is an alarming omission.
- Topic:
- NATO, Environment, Humanitarian Aid, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo
57849. International — Organic Pollutants
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Delegates from 122 countries recently concluded an international agreement restricting the use of persistent organic pollutants. The agreement marks an important step towards eliminating the use of highly toxic and long-lived chemicals that do not break down easily in the environment. However, the significance of the accord extends well beyond its subject area: negotiators managed to find compromises on several issues that have bedevilled other international environmental agreements.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Environment, and International Cooperation
57850. CIAO: Eastern Europe/EU — Transition Traps
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- There has been a large differential in foreign direct investment receipts between the front-runners in the Central European applicant countries and laggards. The accession process itself has exacerbated this bifurcation, raising questions over EU policy towards the applicants and the implications for the region's long-term stability. Accession prospects appear to induce virtuous cycles for the front-runners while potentially trapping the laggards. Moreover, the latter are faced with difficult choices between long-term EU conditionality and more immediate transition imperatives, which are not always compatible
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
57851. CIAO: Romania — Far-Right Ascendant
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Leftist Ion Iliescu and far-right leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor will contest the second round of the presidential election on December 10. Tudor has a real chance of defeating Iliescu. He came a strong second in the first round, owing to disgust with the outgoing coalition, a popular anti-corruption platform and a shift away from extremist rhetoric. The PRM is an unpredictable, potentially destructive force with links to the Ceausescu era and dubious security circles and, now, the ability to obstruct reforms in parliament. Iliescu's weak credentials on reform and minority questions may hinder his attempts to form a common front against Tudor.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Romania
57852. CIAO: United States — 'Plan Colombia'
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Washington, and Colombia
57853. CIAO: Middle East — Arafat's Ambitions
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
57854. CIAO: Ghana — Vulnerable Economy
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Government spending is increasing in the run-up to general elections next month and attempts to liberalise the cocoa trade appear half-hearted. The effectiveness of liberal economic reforms will be constrained as long as Ghana remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of a narrow range of exports. Moreover, anti-corruption measures will lose their bite if they are seen to be directed in part against the government's opponents.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Politics, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
57855. CIAO: International — Organic Pollutants
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Delegates from 122 countries recently concluded an international agreement restricting the use of persistent organic pollutants. The agreement marks an important step towards eliminating the use of highly toxic and long-lived chemicals that do not break down easily in the environment. However, the significance of the accord extends well beyond its subject area: negotiators managed to find compromises on several issues that have bedevilled other international environmental agreements.
- Topic:
- Security and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Russia
57856. CIAO: China — Market Manipulation
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- A leaked Shanghai Stock Exchange report has detailed the extent of trading irregularities within China's domestic equity markets. In the primary market, a series of companies have falsified records on profits, assets and even entire businesses in order to publicly issue and list shares. In the secondary markets, insider trading, the spreading of false information, coordinated stock purchases, price ramping and sales of stocks by large institutional investors are common practice. The extent of trading irregularities reflects the government's preference for market growth over regulatory standardisation. This approach is undermining the CSRC's credibility. Unless regulatory practices are tightened, institutional investors will not have the maturing effect on markets and stabilising impact on prices the government seeks.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China
57857. CIAO: US/China — Trade Relations
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky and China's Prime Minister Zhu Rongji this month held talks in Beijing to discuss China's accession to the WTO. Beyond opening up commercial opportunities to US firms, the award of permanent normal trade relations status to China, and its prospective accession to the WTO, should in theory add predictability to the bilateral trade relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Beijing
57858. CIAO: Canada — Pre-Election Budget
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Finance Minister Paul Martin announced new tax reductions in his annual economic statement this week. The mini-budget is part of the Liberal government's preparations for a general election that is expected to be called later this week. In order to secure another majority in the House of Commons, the federal Liberals will need to maintain their popularity in Ontario and increase their support in Atlantic Canada. If the Liberals fail to regain their majority, they will probably rely on the support of New Democratic legislators. If this happens, the new government would place less emphasis on tax cuts and debt reduction, and more stress on spending, than would otherwise have been the case.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Canada
57859. Iran — Investor Inhibitions
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week, the Majlis approved a government bill authorising immediate use of the 2000-01 budget surplus. The windfall surplus, largely the result of increased oil revenues, should amount to 6-10 billion dollars by the end of the fiscal year in March. It will certainly transform Iran's external finances, but its impact on the domestic economy will be less immediate, and it will do little to ease investor concerns. Khatami's efforts to attract greater foreign investment depend on reform of the judiciary and other key changes to the regulatory climate. In the meantime, continuing political turmoil will deter all but those investors prepared to take a long-term view of Iran's economic potential.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
57860. Mexico — Overheating Arguments
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The recommendation reflects a conflict between the bank and the finance ministry over whether or not the economy is overheating. Increasingly, the conflict is being fought in public circles after months of low-key clashes. The uncharacteristic rift between the monetary and fiscal authorities is likely to widen over the final two months of the Zedillo administration, as signs of overheating continue to accumulate. While pressure for a substantial fiscal adjustment is likely to be irresistible when Fox takes over on December 1, concerns are growing regarding his capacity to execute such a policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
57861. Nigeria — Rapacious Corruption
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Corruption deters foreign lending and investment. Except in the oil and gas sector, Nigeria's economic advantages are not sufficiently countervailing. The national reputation for corruption encourages further abuse since no one's reputation suffers through acting dishonesty. Despite reforming efforts, grand corruption is likely to persist because of the continuing large flows through official hands of unearned income from natural resources.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
57862. European Union — Sanctions against Austria lifted
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The decision last week to lift political sanctions against Austria came as a relief to both Vienna and most of the fourteen EU member states participating in the action. Imposed in protest at the inclusion in government of the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe), the sanctions had rapidly became a source of difficulty and embarrassment. Crucially, nobody had been clear about what the precise aims were, or in what circumstances the sanctions would be suspended: there was no exit strategy for either side.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Austria, and Vienna
57863. South Africa — Mbeki Leadership
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Although the transition from Nelson Mandela's to Thabo Mbeki's presidency has been marked by continued political stability and conservative economic management, Mbeki's political judgement is increasingly being questioned in several key policy areas. Unless Mbeki succeeds in allaying concerns about his leadership, the stability of South Africa's present political arrangements will be undermined.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
57864. International — Capital Flight
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Not all capital outflows from developing countries should be characterised as capital flight; some are simply the analogues of outward FDI and portfolio diversification in the more advanced economies. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion is classic flight capital, linked to tax evasion or criminal activity, and transferred abroad via misinvoicing and complex financial transactions. Capital flight leads to a significant loss of investment in the most affluent developing countries, and a crippling one in the poorest. However, staunching the flow is likely to prove extremely difficult. It will require greater economic stability and institutional certainty in the source countries, and more rigorous tax enforcement and cooperation in the destination states.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
57865. Russia — Gore Strategy
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Vice-President Al Gore officially accepted the Democratic presidential nomination at the party's National Convention in Los Angeles on August 17. A continued deficit in the polls forced Gore to use the convention as a platform to consolidate his base vote. He also sought to differentiate himself from the Clinton presidency, despite the fact that he has adopted similar positions to the outgoing administration on many key issues. If Gore is to win in November, he must convince voters that the current expansion, and the benign political climate that it has fostered, would be imperilled by a Bush presidency.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
57866. United States — High-Tech Exports
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The White House has loosened export restrictions in a number of high-technology sectors, setting a trend which is likely to be followed by the next administration. Tight export controls on high-tech products have become an expensive luxury that the United States can no longer afford. The liberalisation of remaining controls is therefore set to continue, whatever the partisan composition of the next Congress and the next administration.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
57867. Russia — Intelligence Influence
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The recent increase in arrests on espionage charges and expansion of activity by Russia's security and intelligence agencies appears to be signalling a reversion to aggressive Cold War tactics. They are seeking to increase their political influence and appear to be testing the limits of the 'civilised' intelligence competition which has evolved in the last decade. While Moscow has the means and apparent will to intensify intelligence competition, its clumsy and outdated methods threaten the country's commercial interests and could harm broader foreign policy goals.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Russia
57868. United States — Bush Presidency
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- An analysis of Texas Governor George Bush's record as a modest tax cutter and education policy activist suggests that these issues would probably shape his policy preferences if he were elected president. A Bush White House would probably settle for smaller tax cuts than those the governor is currently proposing. It would also be likely to focus on achieving a series of moderately conservative education and crime reforms.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States
57869. Lebanon — Border Deployment Doubts
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- United Nations peacekeeping forces are expected to deploy to the Lebanese-Israeli international border soon. Considerable diplomatic efforts have been required to win 'acceptance' of the border by Beirut and Tel Aviv, and thereby enable UN deployment to the area from which Israel withdrew nearly two months ago. The United Nations is likely to find it even more difficult to implement the other terms of its mandate.
- Topic:
- Security and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
57870. International -- World Economic Propects
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Official attention has shifted from the need to avert recession towards the problems of managing growth. There is some evidence that higher interest rates have begun to slow the expansion to a more sustainable pace in the Anglo-Saxon economies, but it remains unclear whether the principal central banks have done enough to bring demand growth back into line with sustainable increases in supply. The markets expect any further tightening to be limited, but the current position of the monetary authorities should probably be characterised as a pause in the tightening cycle, rather than the peak.
- Topic:
- Economics and Markets
57871. Mexico — Post-Election Challenges
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- In the initial burst of euphoria that has accompanied the end of virtual one-party rule in Mexico, the magnitude of the challenge facing the incoming government is in danger of being overlooked. For those concerned with furthering democracy, it is enough that former Coca-Cola executive Vicente Fox will become the country's first president from outside the Partido Revolucionario Institutional (PRI) in more than seven decades. Investors, who sent the peso and the Mexico City bourse soaring after Sunday's election, are just happy that a clear winner emerged and that the feared collapse of governability has apparently been avoided.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
57872. United States - Senate Prospects
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This year's Senate elections will be only modestly affected by the outcome of the presidential election. The Republicans currently hold a 55-45 seat advantage in the chamber, a margin that will be extremely difficult for the Democrats to overturn this November. The Democrats will therefore hope to gain three or four seats; a surge which would enable the party to launch a strong challenge to the Senate Republicans in 2002. Although more Republicans are seeking re-election this year, the Democrats are defending four of the five seats in which the incumbent senator is retiring (so-called 'open seats').
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and New York
57873. United States — Economic Propects
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The US economy is experiencing its longest-ever recorded period of sustained growth. The current expansion, which began in March 1991, is the longest of the 32 which have been registered by the Bureau of Economic Analysis since 1854 and is now in its tenth year and 110th month. Moreover, since 1995, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of more than 4.25% -- a rate not experienced since the 1960s. The expansion is consistent with the changing pattern of business cycles, insofar as the average length of economic expansions has nearly doubled from about 2.5 years during 1900-53 to about 5 years in the second half of the century (while the average length of contractions has fallen to less than twelve months). However, even allowing for this transformation, the current expansion seems to be exceptional, both for its duration and its strength. The coincidence of a long and inflation-free expansion with the boom in information and communication technologies (ICT) has sparked a debate about their interdependence.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57874. United States — Presidential Race
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- With the presidential primary season having ended this week, the race for the White House now heads for the party conventions. Since effectively securing the Republican nomination, Texas Governor George Bush has regained his poll lead over the de facto Democratic nominee, Vice-President Al Gore. If Bush retains a clear poll lead by the convention season, the current signs of apprehension amongst Democratic leaders will become more apparent. If Gore can more closely identify himself with the economy's exceptionally strong performance, he is perfectly capable of staging a full recovery and securing victory in November.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
57875. International — WTO Reform
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- WTO members are unlikely to reach agreement on radical changes, at least in the short term. At most they may conclude an accord which reaffirms both the principle of consensus and the need for Green Room meetings, and which gives the director-general a role (possibly informal) in ensuring that efficiency is balanced by other considerations. However, an agreement on institutional changes will have little impact on prospects for launching a new trade round. Such prospects will continue to depend on whether members can develop an agenda that all believe will serve their national interests.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
57876. OECD — Inflation Prospects
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Inflation has begun to accelerate throughout the OECD-area, mainly as a result of higher oil prices. The increase comes from a low base and official forecasts suggest that the price outlook is generally benign. However, a further tightening of monetary policy in order to contain inflation at these low levels is now probably the most important threat to asset market valuations and the continued expansion of the global economy. Product market liberalisation, globalisation and the advent of the internet have brought real and lasting changes in pricing behaviour that will not disappear with a global upturn. These trends have been reinforced by improvements in the operation, credibility and effectiveness of national monetary policies. Nevertheless, historical experience suggests that inflationary pressures could accelerate rapidly as the major economies enter their first period of coincident growth since 1988-90. The result is likely to be tighter monetary policy rather than permanently higher inflation and long-term interest rates.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Canada
57877. Northern Ireland — Ulster Prospects
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The political outlook in Northern Ireland has, at least in the short term, been transformed by the political document released by the British and Irish governments and the subsequent statement issued by the IRA. This involves the exchange of a detailed timetable towards the implementation of the Good Friday agreement — including reform of police and security arrangements in the province — for a commitment from the IRA that at least part of their weaponry can be subject to external inspection. This bargain is likely to be enough to permit devolution to be restored shortly. The Northern Ireland peace process has been at an impasse since the British government suspended the operation of devolved institutions on February 11. It did so because the IRA had offered no clear indication as to how it might initiate the process of arms decommissioning — a situation that left Ulster Unionist leader and First Minister David Trimble extremely exposed in his own party. The narrow margin by which Trimble was re-elected leader by the Ulster Unionist Council in March, and that body's further insistence that the proposed reform of Northern Ireland's police force — the Royal Ulster Constabulary — be diluted before devaluation was restored, appeared to plunge the peace process into a state of permafrost.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and North Ireland
57878. Peru -- Flawed democracy
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Immediately following the first round, US pressure was influential in eliciting the delayed official announcement that Fujimori had failed to secure outright victory, and that he would have to contest a run-off against leading opposition contender Alejandro Toledo. However, from Toledo's point of view, the US pressure is likely to yield only limited benefits. While it may persuade Fujimori to ensure that the organisation of the second round is unimpeachable, or at least not too openly corrupt, it will not of itself end Fujimori's regime. On the contrary, it is likely to boost the Fujimori campaign by allowing the incumbent to appeal to strong nationalist sentiments in the Peruvian electorate.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and South America
57879. International: Techno-Stock Troubles
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The current bubble in 'technology stocks' has led to official concern about over-enthusiasm by investors and the banking consequences of a sudden price collapse. The first signs of the long awaited shift emerged last week, as investors shifted from fashionable technology, media and telecoms (TMT) stock back into traditional 'old economy' blue chips. Capital flooding in from Europe and Japan to the United States has been attracted to booming markets led mostly by these stocks. The rest of the market (misleadingly known as the 'old economy') has risen comparatively little.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Europe
57880. United States -- Elian Endgame?
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Attorney General Janet Reno yesterday ordered the Miami-based extended family of Elian Gonzalez to hand him over to his Cuban father. Reno's actions are expected to bring an end to the custody drama surrounding Elian, who was brought to the United States after coastguards found him floating in the Atlantic Ocean after a failed attempt to escape from Cuba with his mother. Although superficially a dispute between the United States and Cuba, argument about the case has centred upon the demands of the Cuban-American community in Florida, a section of the electorate of sufficient importance to oblige Vice-President Al Gore to make his most public break with the administration in which he serves.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, and Cuba
57881. International -- Problematic Piracy
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- A recent meeting of Asian countries on how to combat increasingly violent pirates in the region follows landmark prosecutions of those involve, but years of half-hearted action by coastal states. The International Chamber of Commerce has already called on ASEAN trade bloc nations to join China and Japan in signing the 1988 UN Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (the Rome convention). It would allow pirates caught in seas beyond national maritime jurisdictions to be prosecuted as international criminals. However, 14 of the 16 countries at the Japanese-sponsored talks in Singapore last March have yet to sign. Findings will be presented to a high-level international conference between regional maritime security agencies and government shipping bodies in Tokyo this month.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and Singapore
57882. Northern Ireland: Impasse
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The Ulster Unionist Council re-elected David Trimble as its leader on Saturday but by an unexpectedly narrow majority of 57% to 43%. The party also voted to retain the name and insignia of the Royal Ulster Constabulary — the predominantly Protestant police force in the province — a precondition, along with an IRA commitment to decommissioning, a precondition for restructuring an all-party executive that was suspended two months ago. These are impractical terms for negotiations. The Good Friday agreement is now functionally defunct.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ireland
57883. United States - Election Politics
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush officially secured the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations respectively yesterday. Both candidates have won the nominations exceptionally speedily and the ensuing presidential campaign promises to be one of the longest ever. Providing that the economy continues to perform strongly, Gore should be considered the modest favourite to win November's ballot.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57884. Asia Pacific -- Reform Politics
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- While the region has now emerged from recession, economic reforms remain incomplete and politically contentious. There is a risk that complacency and intransigence will weaken the momentum behind reforms before their full benefits can be felt. For countries not immediately enveloped by it, the East Asian crisis laid bare the risks associated with postponing economic reform without necessarily producing change.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- East Asia
57885. Northern Ireland--Cooperation Ceasefire
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The IRA announced last night that it was suspending all cooperation with the International Commission on Decommissioning and withdrawing all proposals that it had previously placed before it. Tony Blair, the UK prime minister, and Bertie Ahern, his Irish counterpart, will meet today amid a crisis atmosphere. While there is no immediate prospect of an outright return to violence by the IRA, the Good Friday agreement, if not the peace process itself, is at risk.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and North Ireland
57886. Colombia -- Peace Process
- Author:
- first last
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The recent advances in the peace process have brought the possibility of a peace settlement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia closer. International mediation and support will be key for the successful completion of the process and the implementation of any peace agreements. The United States has expressed its interest in supporting peace, but considerations will continue to be dominated by anti-drugs and security issues. European cooperation will also be important. Despite the progress made so far, the pacification of the country remains a distant goal.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and South America
57887. External versus domestic Vs Coastal versus Interior
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- China's relatively rapid growth cannot mask the fundamental problems the economy faces. The government will be forced to continue to apply stimulus to the economy, but the sustainability of this approach is limited. The positive impact of eventual WTO membership will take time to be felt, while accession–related reforms and increased foreign competition will prove disruptive. The country has a limited time in which to prepare.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
57888. East Europe—Bullish Markets
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Gone are the days when the large investment banks defined their global reach in terms of the emerging markets of Eastern Europe. Indeed, the emerging markets label is fading away in favour of new 'global' buzzwords. However, just one year on from the emerging market crisis that threatened the bull of the world financial market, is this rethinking of the emerging markets premature?
- Topic:
- Economics and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
57889. Russia—Duma Dust-up
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Russia's new State Duma ended its first day's work in an uproar on January 18. An unlikely alliance of pro-Communist and pro-Kremlin parties was in control of the chamber's agenda, while an equally improbable alliance of smaller factions vowed not to participate in the running of the chamber until their demands for a greater say were met. This unpromising start presents acting President Vladimir Putin with both a short-term boost and a fresh political challenge. It also highlights one of Boris Yeltsin's more surprising political legacies.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
57890. United Kingdom—Euro Issues
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The formal position of the United Kingdom government that it favours entry into the European single currency 'in principle', but subject to five economic tests and popular sanction in a referendum, masks increasingly deep splits among senior ministers as to what exactly this formula means in terms of practical timing. A profound disagreement between the treasury and the foreign office, personified and led by their respective politicians, exists and is likely to intensify both in the run-up to the next UK election and throughout the next parliamentary term.
- Topic:
- Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
57891. United States—Primary Politics
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Later this month, the US presidential primary season will commence. The opening contests—the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary—provide the best opportunities for either former Democratic senator Bill Bradley or Republican Senator John McCain and Republican Steve Forbes to prevent the present front-runners, Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush, from securing the Democratic and Republican nominations respectively. If Gore or Bush win clear victories in both these early polls, they will be extremely difficult to defeat in later contests. Both of the leading candidates are currently encountering more difficulties in New Hampshire than in Iowa.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
57892. Matters of Faith: Religion in American Public Life
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- A report from the Assembly of the same name, convened in Harriman, New York in March 2000.
57893. The Public Life of the Arts in America
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Art and entertainment constitute America's second-largest export. Most Americans--96 percent, to be exact--are somehow involved in the arts, whether as audience participants, hobbyists, or via broadcast, recording, video, or the Internet. The contribution of the arts to the U.S. economy is stunning: the nonprofit arts industry alone contributes over 857 billion dollars per year, and American artists enjoy world-class status. Despite its size, quality, and economic impact, the arts community is not articulate about how to serve the public interest, and few citizens have an appreciation of the many public policies that influence American arts and culture. The contributors to this volume argue that support for the arts and culture is good economic and trade policy and contributes to the quality of life and community, while it sustains the creativity of American artists and organizations.
57894. Reweaving the Social Tapestry: Public Policies for American Families
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The American Assembly on "Reweaving the Social Tapestry: Public Policies for American Families" convened on September 21-24, 2000 in Kansas City, Missouri. Participants concluded that families can play a vital role in bringing America to greater unity. Yet even the definition of "family" can be a source of great division. The group's recommendations encouraged business and government initiatives designed to support this core societal structure.
57895. Security Risks and Instabilities in Southeastern Europe: Recommended Strategies to the EU in the Process of Differentiated Integration of the Region by the Union
- Author:
- Plamen Pantev
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- The chain of events and developments in Southeastern Europe during the 1990s provoked increasingly sophisticated political reactions, political approaches and longer-term strategies towards the region on the part of the EU. The firm requirement for ethnic tolerance and respect of human rights constitutes one end of the range of EU positions concerning Southeastern Europe. The gradual beginning of the process of integration of some countries from the region in the Union constitutes the other end. At the end of the 1990s, these positions gravitated towards two principles – regionality and conditionality. These principles are partly overlapping and mutually reinforcing, but to some extent also contradictory. The institutional arrangements of these two principles by the EU are identified with the Stability Pact (July 1999) for the principle of regionality, on the one hand, and with the accession negotiations and the Stabilisation and Association Process for the principle of conditionality, on the other hand.
- Topic:
- Security, European Union, Regional Integration, and Risk
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Southeast Europe
57896. The Emergence of a New Geopolitical Region in Eurasia: The Volga-Urals Region and its Implications for Bulgarian Foreign and Security Policy
- Author:
- Nicolay Pavlov and Plamen Pantev
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- The application of geopolitical methodological instruments to the study of Bulgarian foreign and security policy issues has two fundamental causes: first, for many decades this has been a neglected intellectual instrument of international political research – for political and ideological reasons – and, second, the end of the Cold War necessitated an improvement of the conceptual and the analytical tools of security studies in Europe and the world. The traditional approach of ISIS to search ways of improving the security situation by conceptualizing events and processes in a novel way has focused the efforts of its researchers on security problems that cover a broad strategic zone: the Balkans – the Black Sea – the Transcaucasus – the Caspian Sea. Continued cooling – for more than ten years –of bilateral Bulgarian-Russian relations is conceived as one of the problems of this broader strategic and systemically linked zone. The geopolitical and geostrategic model – imposed on Bulgaria by the Cold War divide, the country’s membership in the Warsaw Pact and the thorough domination by the USSR – ended and was replaced by a different reality. The geopolitical projection of the ideological and socio-economic divide was no longer an applicable paradigm. At the same time the balance of power and the geostrategic approaches of understanding the evolving international environment proved to be inadequate after the end of the 1980s of the 20th Century. Russian, and to a lesser extent Bulgarian, politicians lost the orientation and the perspective of the bilateral links. This led to a dramatic diminishing of the meaning of bilateral relations in the general foreign-political engagements of the two countries. Bulgaria had undertaken a clear orientation to market economy, democracy and rule of law – a philosophic course, which logically prioritized the attraction of the European Union as the efficient integration nucleus of Europe, and of NATO – the symbol of stability and guaranteed prosperity in the broader Euro-Atlantic space. Though NATO was no longer perceived in the Cold War antagonistic pattern by Russia, and the very substance of the Alliance intensively adapted to the post-Cold War realities, Bulgaria’s political and security choice of joining the Euro-Atlantic community of developed democratic nations was negatively assessed by the Russian elite.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Bulgaria
57897. Making the Grade 2000: Second Annual Review of Fissile Material Control Efforts
- Author:
- Kevin O'Neill
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Science and International Security
- Abstract:
- A little over a year ago, ISIS initiated an annual review of fissile material controls covering a broad spectrum of initiatives. To do so, 19 separate initiatives were identified and assessed. Based on this assessment, grades were awarded on a scale of A, B, C, D, and F, where an “A” is excellent and an “F” is failing. Numerically, an “A” corresponds to a numerical grade of four, and an “F” to zero. The results of the first review were disappointing. Only 12 of the 19 initiatives received a passing grade of “C” or higher. The average grade of the initiatives was a “C”-showing an unfortunate level of mediocrity across the fissile material control agenda. In ISIS’s 2000 review, we found that the outlook is worse today than it was a year ago. Rather than make progress during the past 12 months, the overall fissile material control agenda fared poorly. The average grade of the identified initiatives fell from a “C” to a “C-minus.” This overall finding is borne out if one looks at the individual grades assigned to each of the 19 identified initiatives. ISIS judged that five initiatives remained essentially static, nine received lower grades, and five initiatives received higher grades.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, and Fissile Material
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States of America
57898. Building a Partnership, Turkey and the European Union
- Author:
- David Barchard
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- This paper is an attempt to identify some of the main practical issues and themes involved in Turkey's accession process in the run-up to the appearance of the Accession Partnership document in early November 2000. It is also an attempt to explore ways of bridging the gap between Turkish and EU attitudes on the political issues that have to be resolved before full membership negotiations can be started.
- Topic:
- International Relations, European Union, Partnerships, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
57899. Effective National Security Advising: A Most Dubious Precedent
- Author:
- Arthur Schlesinger Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- ARTHUR SCHLESINGER, JR. argues that the Eisenhower heavily-layered national security apparatus did not produce a coherent foreign policy and did not save the administration from gross errors. He believes that future presidents would benefit from a more flexible approach--such as those of FDR and JFK--to the conduct of foreign affairs.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, and American Presidency
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
57900. Effective National Security Advising: Recovering the Eisenhower Legacy
- Author:
- Fred I. Greenstein and Richard H. Immerman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- FRED I. GREENSTEIN and RICHARD H. IMMERMAN provide an account of the impressively rigorous process of national security policy planning in the Eisenhower presidency. They commend it as a model for the next administration.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, History, and American Presidency
- Political Geography:
- United States of America