Journal: - CIAO Search Results

401. Unpaid Care & Loss and Damage in Bangladesh

Author:: Alex Bush, Iqbal S. M. Saify, Hasan Mohammad Emran, Saha Jyotimoy, Haque Eashita Farzana, and Sultana Mahmuda
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This report combines literature review and quantitative analysis to explore the gendered impacts of climate crises, with emphasis on unpaid care work. It finds that unpaid care hours increase for low-income women in high climate vulnerability areas, and argues that care-related impacts must be acknowledged and addressed in climate responses around Loss & Damage. It then explores gaps in existing policy to make recommendations on how best to do this.
Topic:: Climate Change, Gender, Loss and Damage (L&D), and Unpaid Work
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

402. Research for Community Benefits and Risks from Carbon Credit Project

Author:: Oxfam in Cambodia
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This study examines the community-level benefits and risks associated with carbon credit initiatives in Cambodia, with a focus on REDD+ initiatives. The research focuses on the governance and socioeconomic dimensions of these initiatives rather than their technical carbon accounting performance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Socioeconomics, Carbon Credits, and Carbon Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

403. Navigating Grievance Mechanisms: A Pathway to Robust Accountability for Rightsholders

Author:: Maria Romis
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This briefing for business provides practical guidance for companies on how to design and implement effective grievance mechanisms as a core component of human rights and environmental due diligence (HREDD). Building on the expectations set by the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (UNGPs) and emerging regulatory frameworks, it emphasizes that grievance mechanisms are not only a compliance requirement but a critical tool for identifying risks, enabling remedy, and strengthening accountability across operations and supply chains. The paper argues that effective systems must be both people-centered—trusted, accessible, and shaped by rightsholders—and embedded within a broader grievance ecosystem that connects operational, brand, and multi-stakeholder level mechanisms. Each level plays a distinct but complementary role: operational mechanisms provide immediate, site-level access; brand-level systems extend accountability across supply chains and leverage influence to drive remedy; and multi-stakeholder mechanisms enable collective action to address systemic risks. Across all levels, the briefing highlights a consistent implementation gap: mechanisms often remain compliance-driven, fragmented, and underused due to lack of trust, accessibility barriers, and limited rightsholder participation. In contrast, emerging good practices show that when mechanisms are designed with rightsholders, supported by local actors, and linked through clear escalation pathways, they can surface hidden risks, strengthen accountability, and deliver meaningful outcomes. The briefing is structured in four parts: (1) reframing grievance mechanisms as rights-based systems for remedy; (2) examining different types of mechanisms and good practices across operational, brand, and multi-stakeholder levels; (3) exploring how these mechanisms can function together as a layered and complementary system; and (4) outlining practical steps to embed a people-centered approach across all levels. Together, these elements support companies in moving from fragmented, compliance-driven approaches toward integrated systems that enable effective remedy, continuous learning, and long-term risk reduction.
Topic:: Human Rights, Business, Accountability, Due Diligence, Rightsholder Engagement, and Grievance Mechanisms
Political Geography:: Global Focus

404. From Commitments to Communities: Rethinking Climate Finance: How civil society and community participation strengthen accountability, access and equity

Author:: Tallulah Cherry-Virdee and Bertram Zagema
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The climate crisis is accelerating, but climate finance is still not reaching the people who need it most. Despite repeated promises and global commitments, funding remains inadequate, fragmented, and too often locked in top-down systems that ignore local realities. Communities on the frontlines and civil society actors are too often shut out of decisions that directly affect their lives — excluded from planning, budgeting, and access to finance itself. This must change. Real climate justice demands finance that is accessible, equitable, and driven by the voices of those most impacted. Drawing on 21 studies from across the Global South, this report exposes systemic barriers in climate finance and shines a light on what works. It highlights how civil society is already driving change, and sets out clear, practical recommendations to make climate finance more accountable, inclusive, and rooted in community realities.
Topic:: Governance, Climate Finance, Participatory Budgeting, Climate Justice, and Fiscal Justice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

405. Resisting the Rule of the Rich

Author:: Alex Maitland, Anjela Taneja, Anthony Kamande, Carlos Brown Solá, Harry Bignell, Max Lawson, and Rune Møller Stahl
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Extreme inequality is reaching new heights. In 2025, billionaire wealth increased three times faster than the average annual rate over the previous five years. Meanwhile, one in four people don’t regularly have enough to eat and nearly half the world’s population live in poverty. The super-rich are becoming a new oligarchy, using their extreme wealth to buy politics, the media and justice to defend their fortunes, dismantle and destroy progressive policies and strip away our basic civil and political rights. Siding with the super-rich, increasingly authoritarian governments are supressing dissent, curtailing rights and fuelling division to protect and preserve this extreme inequality. We must resist by building a worldwide people’s movement to defend our rights, and fight for a clear alternative to inequality and oligarchy.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Inequality, Protests, Tax Systems, Repression, Justice, Freedom, Gender, and Civic Space
Political Geography:: Global Focus

406. A Presidency Grounded in EU Values: Oxfam’s recommendations for the Irish Presidency of the Council of the European Union

Author:: Jade Tenwick, Hanna Saarinen, Asta von Stackelberg, Jan Kowalzig, and Aideen Elliot
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Ireland will assume the Presidency of the Council of the European Union at a moment of profound consequence, as citizens across the world face escalating conflict, the climate crisis, geopolitical uncertainty and threats to democracy itself.    The Presidency comes at a particularly important time as the EU advances negotiations on the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), the future Global Europe instrument, the Tax Omnibus, implementation of the Migration Pact, the EU Humanitarian Communication, and key climate and digital policy files.  This briefing sets out Oxfam’s recommendations for the Irish Presidency. It includes recommendations on key priorities under Ireland’s mandate while also addressing deeper structural challenges shaping the EU’s global role.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, European Union, Finance, Migration Policy, and Council of Europe
Political Geography:: Europe and Ireland

407. Paid up? Living wage efforts in banana supply chains of Dutch and German supermarkets

Author:: Tim Zahn
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Bananas are a staple on supermarket shelves across Europe, but the workers who grow, harvest and pack them often earn wages that fall short of what they need to live with dignity. This report examines whether major Dutch and German supermarkets are delivering on their commitments to close living wage gaps in banana supply chains. Drawing on new research with workers and trade unions in Ecuador and Costa Rica, it finds a troubling gap between promises made and reality on the ground. While many retailers have taken initial steps, living wage gaps persist, trade unions are frequently sidelined, and workers are not aware of payments meant to top up wages. The report shows that voluntary contributions alone are not enough. To ensure living wages become a reality, supermarkets must change how they work in partnership with workers and their representatives.
Topic:: Human Rights, European Union, Trade, Supply Chains, Due Diligence, Living Wage, and Bananas
Political Geography:: Europe

408. Grand Bargain 10 Years on: Protecting quality under scarcity

Author:: Rachel Scott
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The Grand Bargain reaches its 10-year mark in 2026 at a moment of acute funding cuts, hyper-prioritization and rising pressure to prioritize quantity over quality. The Facilitation Group are now leading consultations to inform negotiations on how the Grand Bargain evolves beyond 2026. This paper argues that progress since 2016 is real but fragile, and that the next phase must learn from what has enabled and hindered delivery. Oxfam calls for a focused forum that protects hard-won gains, proves progress credibly, accelerates practical change on the ground, and keeps quality and legitimacy non-negotiable under scarcity.
Topic:: Reform, Humanitarian Response, and Grand Bargain
Political Geography:: Global Focus

409. Time to Walk the Talk: The IMF’s tax advice, 2022-2024

Author:: Nabil Abdo
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Since the pandemic, the IMF’s leadership has been urging countries to pursue more progressive tax policies, backed up by the Fund’s own research. Despite this encouraging development, the IMF’s policy advice on tax in its Article IV reports since the pandemic has been skewed towards regressive taxation. This indicates its continued insistence on austerity as the default way forward, thereby entrenching gender and economic inequalities.
Topic:: International Monetary Fund, Surveillance, Tax Systems, Austerity, and Wealth
Political Geography:: Global Focus

410. Housing Resilience Through Identity-Driven Design: The Case of Karabakh Reconstruction

Author:: Leyla Hasanova
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Resilient housing is often defined in practical terms: structural safety, reliable infrastructure, and the restoration of basic services. In post‑conflict and post‑return contexts, these factors are essential. However, experience shows that resilience is not achieved through construction alone; it is also influenced by whether people returning after long displacement can recognize their surroundings, trust them, and gradually feel at home again. Karabakh brings this challenge into sharp focus. The return of IDPs to Azerbaijan’s liberated areas is not merely a logistical process; it is also an emotional and social transition. Housing can be modern, efficient, and technically successful, yet still feel anonymous. When this happens, buildings stand—but everyday belonging takes much longer to return. The current reconstruction in Karabakh is guided by officially approved urban and master plans for cities such as Aghdam and Aghdara, which envision large‑scale redevelopment through 2040. The Master Plan for Aghdam, adopted by the Cabinet of Ministers in 2022, outlines transforming the city into a sustainable regional hub with integrated infrastructure, planned residential neighborhoods, social facilities, economic zones, and inter‑urban transport links to support return and long‑term growth. Similarly, the Master Plan for Aghdara sets out expanded residential sectors, parks and public spaces, industrial and logistics areas, and the necessary social infrastructure, aligning with broader reconstruction strategies for multiple liberated cities. These master plans are published and consolidated by the State Committee on Urban Planning and Architecture of Azerbaijan (SCUPA). On the committee’s official urban‑planning portal, master plans and sectoral frameworks are made publicly accessible, including map‑based spatial regulations and planning diagrams that outline axes of movement, the hierarchy of public spaces, and zoning allocations for land use. The portal also provides planning norms, public‑space standards, and guidelines on urban morphological structuring that local administrations use to coordinate investment and construction activities across both the public and private sectors. While such frameworks are essential for reconstructing cities on a large scale—addressing land use, density, infrastructure, public sector facilities, and environmental regulation—they mainly function at the macro level of spatial planning and investment strategies. Concerning everyday spatial experience and human‑scale understanding, they offer limited guidance on how to incorporate cultural familiarity into newly designed environments. Formal master plans provide overarching roadmaps and zoning guidelines, but they often lack a clear design language or operational tools for shaping streets, squares, facades, materials, or visual cues that reflect local cultural identity. It is within this gap between macro‑scale planning and lived spatial experience that this essay positions its argument. I contend in these pages that identity‑driven design—understood as design that responds to culture rather than applying universal models—should be seen not as a stylistic or symbolic addition but as a practical component of housing resilience. Framed through an environmental‑design perspective, my argument emphasizes how urban design, architecture, and everyday objects collectively shape how people recognize, inhabit, navigate, and ultimately care for their reconstructed environments.
Topic:: Reconstruction, Resilience, Housing, and Identity
Political Geography:: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

411. Building Sustainable and Resilient Communities Among Repatriated People

Author:: Lala Jumayeva, Fidan Namazova, and Anar Valiyev
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The conflict over Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a territorial dispute that began during the late Russian Empire period, ebbed and flowed throughout the Soviet era before escalating in the late 1980s. This escalation led to the large‑scale forced displacement of the ethnic‑Azerbaijani populations in both Armenia and what was then known as the Nagorno‑Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of Azerbaijan, as well as surrounding areas now collectively called East Zangezur. Official data collected shortly after the end of the First Karabakh War in 1994 showed 209,000 refugees and 576,000 internally displaced people (IDPs), roughly 10 percent of Azerbaijan’s population at that time. In this article, we focus on IDPs, many of whom have endured nearly 30 years of displacement, often living in overcrowded public buildings and makeshift settlements with limited access to basic services and poor living conditions. This prolonged instability affected not only their socioeconomic circumstances, but also the development of community life during displacement. Over time, the absence of stable homes, reliable institutions, and long‑term development plans has restricted opportunities to build sustainable community practices among IDPs. After hostilities ended the Second Karabakh War in November 2020 and following the September 2023 counter‑terrorism operation, Azerbaijan regained full control of its previously occupied territories and launched the Great Return program, a government‑led effort to help ethnic‑Azerbaijani IDPs return to the liberated areas. While rebuilding infrastructure is a key part of this program, the long‑term success of return and reintegration equally depends on building sustainable communities that promote social cohesion, livelihoods, and institutional stability. In this context, the idea that returning populations can easily develop sustainable community practices raises an important question: How have decades of displacement affected IDPs’ ability to build sustainable communities in postconflict Karabakh? We examine answers to that question in this article by looking at the experiences of IDP communities in Baku and other regions of Azerbaijan over nearly 30 years. We explore why sustainable community practices did not develop during long‑term displacement and identify the barriers that prevented IDPs from establishing socially cohesive, economically viable, and institutionally supported communities in their places of displacement. Our findings show that such practices were largely absent among IDPs, a pattern that cannot be explained solely by community‑level factors.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Infrastructure, Social Cohesion, Armed Conflict, and Internally Displaced Persons (IDP)
Political Geography:: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

412. The economics of sovereign AI: balancing autonomy, innovation, and growth in the Asia-Pacific

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Oxford Economics was commissioned by the AI Adoption Initiative to develop a research report that supports policymakers as they navigate a growing dilemma: how to strengthen sovereignty without undermining economic efficiency, innovation, or sustainability. Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly recognised as a general-purpose technology with the potential to lift productivity, strengthen competitiveness, and support long-term economic growth across Asia-Pacific and Japan (APJ). At the same time, governments are placing greater emphasis on sovereignty—seeking to ensure that data, infrastructure, and AI systems remain subject to domestic control, oversight, and values. This shift reflects legitimate economic security and societal concerns, but it also raises important questions about cost, scalability, and the pace of AI adoption.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, Economic Growth, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific

413. The socioeconomic footprint of British Steel in the UK

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: This report, commissioned by British Steel, quantifies the socioeconomic footprint of British Steel across the UK. Steel is embedded in a broad range of goods and applications used in everyday life and modern technologies. This report quantifies British Steel’s core economic footprint, including its direct operations and upstream supply chain alongside its downstream impact across customer sectors. The analysis focuses on the 2021 calendar year, chosen as the year when production and market conditions were deemed most reflective of a normal business environment. In 2021, British Steel and its upstream supply chain supported an estimated £1.1 billion contribution to UK GDP and around 20,200 jobs. More than 60% of this GDP contribution was concentrated in the North of England. It also potentially enabled a further £9.8 billion in GDP and 142,000 jobs across its downstream customer sectors including construction, rail, and metals.
Topic:: Economics, GDP, Socioeconomics, Steel, and Jobs
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

414. A Critical Review of HMG’s Impact Assessment on Shifting to NPM 2018 for Promotion and Advertising Restrictions

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: The UK government is consulting on a proposal to apply the 2018 Nutrient Profile Model to existing regulations governing the promotion and advertising of “less healthy” food and drink products. If implemented, the proposal would significantly expand the range of products subject to these restrictions, with implications for consumers, businesses, and the wider economy. Oxford Economics has undertaken an independent review of the impact assessment that was published alongside the consultation announcement. Our research finds that the government’s evidence base is often limited with material uncertainties and evidence gaps that have important implications for the overall cost-benefit assessment.
Topic:: Economics, Food, Regulation, and Advertising
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

415. Unlocking water capacity: How AI & Cloud computing applications can increase water supply and reduce water demand

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Oxford Economics Australia partnered with AWS to produce a robust, evidence-led report exploring how AI, cloud computing, connected sensors, and advanced analytics can help increase available water capacity across Australia. The project assessed practical opportunities to reduce water losses, optimise consumption, improve operational decision-making, and support long-term water resilience across utilities, households, agriculture, and mining. Deliverables included sector modelling, market sizing, real-world case studies, adoption pathways, and quantified efficiency opportunities.
Topic:: Water, Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Consumption, and Supply and Demand
Political Geography:: Global Focus

416. Cheers to bars: The economic and social impact of pubs and bars in five markets

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: This research, conducted by Oxford Economics in partnership with AB InBev, examines the economic and social contribution of bars and pubs across five markets: the United States, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea. Combining economic impact analysis with survey evidence, the study quantifies the sector’s contribution to employment, GDP, and tax revenues; while also exploring the role bars play in social connection, shared experiences, and community life.
Topic:: Economics, Tax Systems, Social Impacts, and Pubs and Bars
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, South Korea, Brazil, and Mexico

417. Tariff Impact Modelling for Ontario Municipalities

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Oxford Economics Australia worked with AEMO to assess how tariffs could affect Ontario municipal capital expenditure. Using bespoke economic modelling, trade exposure analysis, and scenario-based forecasting, we quantified the direct cost impacts of tariffs across key infrastructure asset types and produced the Tariff Impacts on Ontario Municipality Capital Expenditure report.
Topic:: Economics, Tariffs, Trade, Municipalities, and Tariff Impact Modeling
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

418. Affordable Housing in Baku: Proposals for Sustainable Urban Living

Author:: Carl Haddrell and Aysel Karimli
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The current housing problem in Baku did not begin with the post‑Soviet real‑estate boom. Its roots reach back to the late Russian imperial period, when the first oil boom transformed Baku from a small‑town port into one of the empire’s fastest‑growing industrial cities. Wealth generated by oil produced a sharply uneven urban landscape: elite mansions, administrative buildings, and prestigious apartment houses rose in the central city, while the influx of workers from other parts of Azerbaijan, the empire, and surrounding states produced intense pressure for cheaper accommodation near the oil fields and industrial districts. Baku’s modern housing question, therefore, emerged at the same time as its modern prosperity. Under Soviet rule, this earlier imbalance was not eliminated so much as reorganized. From the 1920s onward, Baku became the site of repeated planning experiments, including worker settlements around the industrial periphery, new general plans for the city and the Absheron Peninsula, and later the mass construction of standardized apartment blocks. These interventions expanded access to housing and built the foundations of the residential city that still exists today. Yet they also embedded a different set of long‑term problems: heavy reliance on standard typologies, weak maintenance cultures, and a tendency to subordinate housing quality to industrial and demographic urgency. By the late Soviet period, the city had acquired large microdistricts and extensive prefabricated housing, but much of this stock was already beginning to age mechanically and spatially. The legacy is therefore double. Baku inherited from the imperial era a housing market shaped by uneven access and speculative pressure; from the Soviet era, it inherited a vast but increasingly fragile stock whose technical life and social logic were never meant to carry the full weight of a twenty‑first‑century metropolis. Despite considerable and commendable efforts by the Azerbaijani government and the city authorities, Baku is currently facing the prospect of a housing crisis marked by severe affordability constraints and significant deterioration of its pre‑1990 housing stock, which may, if not successfully addressed, lead to growing socioeconomic inequality. Housing prices substantially exceed median household income levels, and the opportunity to secure a mortgage and take the first steps toward property ownership remains a significant challenge for many. At the same time, nearly half of the city’s residential buildings face long‑term structural risk due to decades of deferred maintenance. As a result, housing in Baku functions not only as a sectoral challenge but as a systemic driver of social disparity and fiscal strain. Drawing on the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11 framework (“Sustainable Cities and Communities”), this paper proposes an integrated reform agenda for Baku focused on affordability measures, large‑scale structural rehabilitation, institutional reform, and the modernization of housing data systems. Without coordinated intervention, Baku risks intergenerational inequality and accelerating infrastructure decline; however, targeted reforms could position the housing sector as a foundation for sustainable, resilient urban development.
Topic:: Urbanization, Sustainability, Post-Soviet Space, and Affordable Housing
Political Geography:: Caucasus, Azerbaijan, and Baku

419. Cities for Living: Identity at Eye Level in Azerbaijan’s Urban Transformation

Author:: Emir Huseynov
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Azerbaijan’s cities are changing at a pace that has few precedents in the country’s modern history. Today, approximately 57 percent of the national population lives in urban areas, with Baku accounting for nearly one quarter of the country’s inhabitants. Annual residential construction has more than doubled over the past decade, rising from approximately 1.6 million square meters in 2010 to nearly 3 million square meters by 2023. The State Agency for Housing Construction has delivered thousands of units under social housing programs, and reconstruction in the liberated areas of Karabakh and East Zangezur is producing entirely new settlements—among them those parts of Shusha that had been disfigured during the Soviet and Armenian occupation periods, where 389 hectares are being reorganized around heritage and community structure, and Aghdam, where a city for 100,000 residents is being planned from the ground up after having been systematically devastated during the occupation period. By any quantitative measure, urban transformation in Azerbaijan is sustained, organized, and accelerating. Yet the scale of what has been built does not by itself answer the deeper question of how it is lived. Decades of Soviet urbanism systematically subordinated local identity—the neighborhood, the street, the courtyard—to a standardized built environment designed to replace rather than reinforce community roots. The post‑Soviet transition that followed, necessarily focused on economic stabilization and market construction, left this dimension largely unaddressed. Azerbaijan’s Socio‑Economic Development Strategy for 2022‑2026 places strong emphasis on improving quality of life, expanding access to services, and achieving more balanced regional development. The strategy prioritizes the diversification of economic activity beyond Baku, investment in regional infrastructure, and the strengthening of social services across the country. Taken together, these priorities implicitly point to uneven conditions in how urban environments are experienced, where differences in accessibility, public space quality, and local infrastructure continue to shape everyday life across regions. Here, is can be noted that in its 2025 Country Strategy for Azerbaijan, the EBRD indicted that livability and domestic connectivity outside Baku remain underdeveloped. Growth has been organized. Its translation into environments where communities recognize themselves is less certain. This article examines Azerbaijan’s cities from the perspective of identity experienced at eye level—through housing streets in microdistricts, shared spaces in new residential clusters, and the daily rhythms of neighborhood life. It argues that the country’s next urban challenge is increasingly qualitative rather than purely quantitative: not only how much to build, but how urban environments perform over time. Drawing on housing patterns, planning frameworks, reconstruction strategies, and emerging examples of community‑centered renewal across the country, the article examines what urban policy should now address to ensure that Azerbaijan’s cities remain places to live as well as to develop.
Topic:: Development, Urbanization, and Cities
Political Geography:: Caucasus and Azerbaijan

420. Why Baku Needs to Adjust to a Global Polarized Reality

Author:: Jahangir E. Arasli
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: In the 35 years since the restoration of its national independence, Azerbaijan performed a spectacular ascending trajectory. Having overcome early troubles, the country restored its full territorial integrity and sovereignty, accelerated its pace of development, and firmly entrenched itself as a “keystone state” that commands international respect and credibility. All this was not the case at first. Armenia’s full‑scale military invasion of Azerbaijan that began in the late 1980s, and the subsequent occupation of a significant share of national territory, overshadowed the initial stages of Azerbaijan’s independence, projecting insecurity, hindering domestic development, and consuming efforts, treasure, and blood. Certainly, the liberation of the occupied territories emerged as the ultimate national goal and remained so for nearly three decades. Eventually, in 2020‑2023, Azerbaijan accomplished this mission through the application of all tools of national power (military, diplomatic, and economic). However, the accomplishment of that principal mission does not mean that the state can afford to be complacent. The system of threats, risks, and challenges to national security evolves continuously and rapidly in all parts of its spectrum, ranging from geopolitics to technology. The global system has entered into а profound and turbulent period of transformation. These changes include (but are not limited to) the relative decline of status quo powers and the rise of new assertive ones, shifts in international alignments and multipolarization, mounting strategic competition and hastening alliance‑building, durable conflicts and the erosion of respect for international law, and the growing impact of novel and potentially disruptive technologies. A fragmented constellation of competitive and issue‑based state groupings now supersedes the largely unipolar post‑Cold War global architecture. A stronger emphasis on hard power, transactionalism, the weaponization of the world economy and trade, the pursuit of control over resources and logistical routes, and the mounting factor of artificial intelligence are defining and driving geopolitics and international relations. These long‑term trends will shape security dynamics worldwide in the second half of this and, at a minimum, the entirety of the next decade. As the existing global order reaches its inflection point, generating greater chaos and risk, Azerbaijan must adapt its strategic behavior to the emergent post‑”rules‑based liberal international order” era of strategic transactionalism and the return of the utility of force. Therefore, this Baku Dialogues article seeks to conceptualize and frame Azerbaijan’s strategic posture within the evolving global and regional security environment and to assess its potential future trajectories.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Polarization, Regional Politics, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Baku, and Nagorno-Karabakh

421. The Concept of Inclusive Neighborhoods: Lessons from Vienna’s Mixed Housing Types

Author:: Silja Tillner
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: A historical overview of the development of the Viennese housing system provides the framework for understanding its current favorable situation, which draws many international experts eager to learn from the Vienna model. Since 1917, the Viennese housing model has evolved, with its core principles established in 1922. Even during times of financial difficulty, successive city governments resisted selling property and protected their municipal landholdings. Today, this gives the City of Vienna a significant advantage over other European cities that began selling municipal properties in the 1980s. The Viennese housing system was developed with the help of renowned architects, urban planners, and sociologists. They focused not only on designing functional and aesthetically pleasing individual buildings, but also on establishing neighborhoods with social, cultural, and technical infrastructure. This is an early version of today’s 15‑minute city concept, which advocates providing essential services within a 15‑minute walk. In the early twentieth century, the city had already envisioned establishing mixed districts with socially integrated communities by using land provision and zoning to ensure the fair distribution of social housing across the entire city. Today, the residents of Vienna benefit from the continuous stewardship and administration of Europe’s largest property manager, which is responsible for 1,800 housing complexes, 220,000 individual flats, and 5,500 business premises. In 2020, Vienna’s municipal housing celebrated its one hundredth anniversary whilst remaining true to its mission of providing affordable, high‑quality dwellings in mixed communities across the entire city for the majority of its population.
Topic:: Development, Cities, Housing, Inclusion, and Municipalities
Political Geography:: Europe, Austria, and Vienna

422. Housing at the Center: Rebuilding the Social Contract for Cities in a Fragmented World

Author:: Anacláudi Rossbach
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: As the world turns its attention to Baku in anticipation of the Thirteenth Session of the World Urban Forum (WEF13), a profound realization is taking hold across governments, institutions, and communities: the future of cities will be determined not only by how they grow, but by how they house their people. Across continents and contexts, housing has emerged as the defining challenge of our urban age. It sits at the intersection of inequality, climate change, economic instability, and social fragmentation. And yet, for decades, it has too often been treated as a sectoral issue—something to be addressed through discrete policies, market adjustments, or targeted programs. It is increasingly clear and consistently emphasized by UN‑Habitat that housing must be understood not as a standalone domain, but as the foundation of the entire urban system. The scale of the challenge is staggering. Over 2.8 billion people worldwide live in inadequate housing conditions. Hundreds of millions experience homelessness, often in forms that remain invisible in official statistics—people living in temporary shelters, overcrowded spaces, or precarious arrangements that offer little security or dignity. More than 1 billion people reside in informal settlements or slums, where access to basic services such as water, sanitation, and electricity is uncertain, and where tenure insecurity leaves communities vulnerable to eviction and displacement. In short, the housing crisis affects nearly 40 percent of the global population.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, Cities, and Housing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

423. Caspian Sea Water Level Decline: Drivers, Consequences, and Impacts on Littoral States

Author:: Vali Kaleji
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Fluctuations in the water level of the Caspian Sea and the shoreline’s retreat are not new phenomena; they have happened repeatedly throughout the sea’s long history. My hometown is in Mazandaran Province on the southern coast of the Caspian in Iran, and I personally observed a significant rise in water levels after the Soviet Union’s implosion, during which many houses and coastal facilities were submerged. About thirty years later, I saw a notable retreat of the Caspian from its shores again. What is especially notable, however, is that the current rate of shoreline retreat—caused by a decline in the sea’s water level—is much greater than during previous historical periods. Scientific reports and empirical studies further support these observations. The average water level of the Caspian Sea has fluctuated over the past century, but has generally remained between 26 and 27 meters below the Baltic Sea level. According to the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea (signed in Aktau at the presidential level in August 2018), the sea level was officially set at ‑28 meters, meaning 28 meters below the level of the world’s oceans and open seas, using the Baltic Sea as the reference point for measuring fluctuations in the Caspian Sea. Specialists at the Volga–Caspian Fisheries Research Institute have reported that the Caspian Sea’s water level has dropped to more than 29 meters below the Baltic Sea (‑29 m), which serves as the standard reference system in Russia and several post‑Soviet states for measuring water levels in landlocked bodies of water.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Iran, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Caspian Sea

424. Beyond Housing Provision for Baku: A Strategic Roadmap for Climate-Resilient Neighborhoods and Human Development

Author:: Deniz Ozge Aytac
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Baku’s rapid urbanization is heightening pressure on housing, infrastructure, public services, and environmental systems. Recent reports point to a more complex urban condition shaped by affordability constraints, spatial mismatches, aging building stock, uneven neighborhood services, increased heat exposure, and declining ecological quality. Some of the effects of climate change worsen these issues, making it more urgent to adopt a policy approach that integrates the spatial, social, and environmental aspects of urban development. I argue in this article that urban policy in Baku should move beyond a narrow housing‑provision approach and adopt a climate‑resilient neighborhood concept as the primary unit of intervention. This is consistent with Azerbaijan’s broader development agenda, including Azerbaijan 2030, the Strategic Roadmap for Affordable Housing, the Baku Initiative on Human Development for Climate Resilience, and the ongoing efforts of UN‑Habitat and national institutions to make cities and communities more climate‑resilient. Taken together, these frameworks suggest that resilience should be understood not only in terms of infrastructure performance or emissions reduction, but as the capacity of people and places to sustain healthy, inclusive, safe, and adaptive urban life under changing socioeconomic and environmental conditions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Urbanization, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Azerbaijan and Baku

425. Urban Redevelopment and Heritage from Below: Towards a Socially Inclusive Urban Policy

Author:: Bairam Akhundov and Leyla Sayfutdinova
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Baku’s ultramodern skyline, marked by iconic architectural landmarks, has gained global recognition in recent decades. This transformation required significant investment not only in building new structures but also in beautifying and redeveloping urban spaces. While some of these projects took place in former industrial areas and public spaces, such as Baku White City and the expanded Seaside Park, others involved the redevelopment of existing residential neighborhoods. The transformation of former industrial brownfields did not cause many concerns, but the redevelopment of residential areas often met with resentment, contestation, and, at times, resistance. Displacement and conflicting views over heritage have frequently been key issues in these discussions. While the redevelopment and upgrading of dilapidated housing stock are necessary, such contestation can lead to social polarization and cleavage, and, if unaddressed, could produce fertile ground for social discontent. Against the backdrop of the ongoing transformation of the Bayir Shahar neighborhood in Baku, this article examines divergent views on heritage and urban redevelopment and argues for a more inclusive process of urban change.
Topic:: Development, Urbanization, Heritage, and Social Inclusion
Political Geography:: Caucasus, Azerbaijan, and Baku

426. The Role of the Middle Corridor in Eurasian Connectivity

Author:: Melina Torús
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: That part of the world that is still commonly referred to as “Eurasia” is characterized by its vast continental landmass, great diversity of natural and strategic resources, varied geography, and significant proportion of the global population. These features make it a prosperous area for trade and logistics. Large industrial centers and urban logistics hubs connect national, regional, and global markets. The Eurasian neighborhood is also home to major global and regional powers, including China, Russia, Iran, the European Union, and Türkiye, all of which have significant economic influence. In this context, connectivity has become a strategic resource and a foreign policy instrument. Multimodal corridors, which integrate various modes of transport such as rail, road and sea, are much more than mere transit routes. Growing competition between major powers and the vulnerability of supply chains have also marked a transition in international order, highlighting the importance of Eurasian corridors and alternative routes for global trade. Participation in and control of transport corridors can therefore become instruments of national power and influence. Historically, the Eurasian region has been connected by trade routes such as the Silk Road. However, these were nothing like the integrated transport corridors seen today. In addition to technological advances in transport, there is a greater degree of institutionalization today, which in turn strengthens cooperation between states. Faced with the challenge of connecting the vast Eurasian landmass, multiple corridors have emerged over time, each offering different geopolitical advantages, challenges and vulnerabilities. Initiatives such as the Northern Corridor, the International North‑South Transport Corridor (INSTC), Transport Corridor Europe‑Caucasus‑Asia (TRACECA), and the Middle Corridor are emerging in the region in response to the growing need for resilient and reliable supply chains and alternative trade routes in a context of international geopolitical tensions. Against this backdrop, the Middle Corridor is establishing itself as a viable alternative for trade between Asia and Europe. It offers multimodal transport options, diversifying routes and reducing reliance on corridors that are more vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. Since its launch in 2013, the Middle Corridor has established itself as a vital multimodal route connecting China and Central Asia with the Caucasus and Europe. It integrates road, rail, port, and digital infrastructure. As well as facilitating intercontinental trade, this corridor enables countries such as Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Kazakhstan to establish themselves as strategic logistics hubs and expand their influence in regional trade flows. Since its inception, progress has been made in legal harmonization, infrastructure modernization—especially to reduce bottlenecks—and the digitalization of processes along the corridor. In 2025, for example, the focus was on railway modernization, customs digitalization, and port expansion, reflecting a joint effort by intra‑ and extra‑regional actors to strengthen the corridor’s efficiency and resilience. These advances are taking place amid increased interest in the Middle Corridor, accentuated by geopolitical tensions in neighboring theaters, as reflected by the increased volume of cargo transported. To this end, regional cooperation is essential to ensure that this route is more resilient, reliable and attractive for international trade. This paper examines the role of the Middle Corridor in the context of supply chain reconfiguration and the key interests of those involved, such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Türkiye, the European Union, the United States, and China. The article is organized into five main sections. It begins by defining multimodal corridors and examining the importance of hard and soft infrastructure, as well as connectivity as a foreign policy tool. Then it analyses Eurasian corridors, identifying the chief land and multimodal routes, their history, and the associated advantages and challenges. Examples include the Northern Corridor, TRACECA, and the INSTC. Special emphasis is placed on the Middle Corridor, describing recent developments, infrastructure investments, and technological and operational advances that consolidate its operation. Moreover, the article addresses the interests of the involved parties, distinguishing between transit countries, users, and extra‑regional actors. It focuses particularly on China, the European Union, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and the United States, and includes initiatives such as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) in the South Caucasus. Finally, it concludes by , emphasizing the advantages that corridors offer for economic integration, regional cooperation, and diversifying trade routes. It also highlights the opportunities that corridors provide for intra‑ and extra‑regional actors within the Eurasian geopolitical context.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Regional Integration, Transportation, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Eurasia

427. Slipping Out of ‘Old Geopolitics’ Through TRIPP

Author:: Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: For much of the post‑Cold War period, the South Caucasus was shaped by a distinct geopolitical logic in which unresolved conflicts functioned as instruments of external influence, connectivity was constrained, and stability was underpinned by interim security mechanisms and contested political arrangements, not by durable peace agreements. This old geopolitics did not seek resolution; it sought control. Frozen or semi‑frozen conflicts allowed external actors—above all Russia—to arbitrate outcomes, limit regional autonomy, and preserve leverage by keeping borders politically charged and economically inert. Order was produced not through integration or enforcement, but through managed ambiguity. The erosion of the old geopolitical order did not occur suddenly, nor has it unfolded uniformly across the region. It began in earnest in 2020, when Azerbaijan fundamentally altered the regional balance of power by liberating its internationally recognized territories that had been under Armenian occupation for nearly three decades. For the first time since the early 1990s, one of the central pillars of the South Caucasus’s old geopolitical order—territorial conflicts sustained by external oversight—was dismantled through local agency rather than external arbitration. This shift deepened in September 2023, when Azerbaijan brought an end to the Russia‑backed separatist entity in Karabakh, eliminating the last institutional remnant of the unresolved‑conflict paradigm in Armenia‑Azerbaijan relations. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh in May 2024 confirmed the strategic significance of this moment. This marked a turning point not only in the Armenia‑Azerbaijan conflict but in the wider regional balance of influence. Old geopolitics, however, has not disappeared entirely from the South Caucasus. The Georgia‑Russia conflict remains governed by old rules (i.e., military occupation, external veto power, and frozen political arrangements) and stands as one of the last strongholds of the former order in the region. It is against this backdrop that the qualitatively new character of the normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan must be understood. Freed from the constraints of frozen conflict management, the two states have increasingly prioritized peacebuilding, connectivity, and economic cooperation. This transformation reached a further milestone at the August 2025 White House summit of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, when the two countries reached an agreement on one of the most contested issues of the post‑war period: the Zangezur Corridor, a transport route intended to connect mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through Armenia’s Syunik region. The corridor’s establishment was formalized under the framework of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), with the United States assuming a direct role in its infrastructural arrangements. By embedding regional connectivity within a U.S.‑backed infrastructural framework, the TRIPP agreement effectively shifted the role of external guarantor along the corridor through Armenian territory from Russia to the United States. The reactions of Russia and Iran to the TRIPP agreement demonstrated that the South Caucasus is not entering a post‑geopolitical era. However, developments between Armenia and Azerbaijan, together with the altered geopolitical context, indicate that the region is steadily, though slowly, moving away from the older order. The most consequential conflict in the region has been resolved, and the post‑war normalization process is increasingly managed through infrastructure, legal frameworks, and reciprocal commitments that reshape incentives on the ground. While old geopolitics persists in one part of the region (e.g., the Russia‑Georgia conflict), it no longer defines the dominant trajectory of regional order.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Normalization, and Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh

428. From Karabakh to Connectivity: The Zangezur Concept and the Remaking of Power in the South Caucasus

Author:: Onur İşçi
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: In recent years, few words have acquired as much political weight in the South Caucasus as “corridor.” Once a largely technical term associated with infrastructure planning and trade routes, it has become shorthand for far broader debates about power, sovereignty, and regional order. Among these stands out the proposed Zangezur Corridor—with discourse now increasingly centered on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)—not because it is unprecedented, but because of what it represents in a rapidly transforming geopolitical environment. At first glance, the idea appears straightforward: a transport link connecting mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through the southern Armenia region of Syunik (the Azerbaijani term for this region is Zangezur, hence the moniker), thereby creating a more direct land route between Azerbaijan and Türkiye (in contradistinction to two more circuitous ones, south via Iran and north via Georgia). Framed narrowly, this is a question of logistics, transit fees, customs arrangements, and infrastructure security. Framed correctly, however, the Zangezur concept is something else entirely. It is a test case for how connectivity reshapes power relations in the post‑Soviet space—and for whether the South Caucasus can move from a history of frozen conflicts toward a model of managed competition and pragmatic cooperation. The Zangezur concept is a test case for how connectivity reshapes power relations in the Silk Road region and for whether the South Caucasus can move toward a model of managed competition and pragmatic cooperation. The renewed focus on the Zangezur Corridor is inseparable from the post‑2020 regional landscape. The Second Karabakh War did not merely alter borders or military balances; it disrupted longstanding assumptions about immobility in the South Caucasus. For decades, the region had been defined by closed borders, interrupted transport routes, and unresolved disputes treated as permanent fixtures rather than temporary conditions. The Second Karabakh War—and the diplomatic processes that followed—forced all regional actors to confront a new reality: connectivity was no longer optional, and isolation was no longer sustainable. Yet it would be a mistake to view the Zangezur Corridor debate simply as a linear outcome of the end of the territorial conflict over Karabakh and the resulting Armenia‑Azerbaijan peace process. The corridor has gained prominence because it sits at the intersection of several overlapping trends. One is the growing centrality of geoeconomics in regional politics, where access, transit, and logistics increasingly matter as much as formal alliances. Another is the gradual redefinition of sovereignty in a world where states seek not absolute control, but strategic autonomy—the ability to make choices without excessive dependence on any single external power. Seen through this lens, the Zangezur Corridor issue is less about shortening distances than about recalibrating relationships. For Azerbaijan, it promises to consolidate territorial connectivity while reinforcing its role as an indispensable regional hub linking the Caspian basin to Anatolia and beyond. For Türkiye, it offers a tangible extension of its long‑articulated vision of deeper engagement with the South Caucasus and Central Asia—one grounded not in ideology, but in infrastructure and interdependence. Together, these dynamics elevate the Türkiye‑Azerbaijan relationship from a close bilateral partnership into a regional structuring force.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Trade, Connectivity, and Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

429. Divergent Paths in the South Caucasus: Strategy, Survival, Retreat

Author:: Laura Linderman
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: When President Donald Trump welcomed Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to the White House in August 2025, the ceremony celebrated more than just the hope that decades of conflict between the two neighboring states might finally be coming to an end. The agreement initialed that day, which grants the United States long‑term development rights to a transit corridor ambitiously named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), marked a watershed moment in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. For the first time in modern history, a major peace process in the region had bypassed Moscow entirely in favor of Western mediation. Yet the TRIPP agreement’s deeper significance lies not in American diplomatic triumph, but in what it reveals about a regional transformation—and the limits of that transformation. Russia’s war in Ukraine has created a window of opportunity for the South Caucasus, a moment when Moscow’s strategic distraction has given regional states unprecedented room to maneuver. The question is not whether this window exists, it clearly does, but how long it will remain open, and which states have the capacity to exploit it before it closes. The answers vary dramatically. The South Caucasus has moved from what Zbigniew Brzezinski famously called the “grand chessboard,” where great powers moved regional states as pawns, to what Svante E. Cornell and Damjan Krnjević Mišković describe in the introduction to their edited volume, titled After Karabakh: War, Peace, and the forging of a New Caucasus (2025), as a “card table,” where each state holds its own sovereign hand of playing cards. But not all hands are equal. Azerbaijan sits at the card table with a strong hand, leveraging energy resources, geographic indispensability, and military victory to extract value from multiple powers simultaneously. Armenia plays a weak hand the best it can under the circumstances, having initiated much of the TRIPP process to escape isolation and avoid being further diminished by Azerbaijan; a survival strategy, but a strategy nonetheless. And one could say that it looks as if Georgia has lit its best cards on fire or eaten them, with its government seemingly choosing preservation over strategic opportunity. The scene at the metaphorical card table after the most recent hand has been dealt is not, as some Western commentators have assumed, a straightforward regional pivot away from Russia toward the West. Nor is it the emergence of a coherent new form of sovereignty. It is something messier: three states responding to the same geopolitical shock with radically different resources, constraints, and choices. The West has increasingly set aside the post‑Cold War vision of liberal internationalism, with its emphasis on open markets, multilateral institutions, and shared sovereignty, in favor of a more transactional approach to statecraft. States the world over, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, are adapting to this reality, but adaptation looks very different depending on whether you’re negotiating from strength or desperation.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, International Order, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus

430. The Corridor Changing Eurasia: Connectivity, Sovereignty, and the Strategic Awakening of the Trans-Caspian Region

Author:: Eric Rudenshiold
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Since (re‑)gaining independence from the Soviet Union, the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus have been perceived by and large as flyover states of marginal interest. They were framed in geopolitical dialogue as peripheries or regions whose importance largely derived from adjacency rather than agency—from whom they bordered rather than what roles they could play. Especially in Western policy discourse, they were generally described as buffers or backyards, almost never as strategic actors in their own right. That framing is grossly outdated. Over the past four years or so, what has been unfolding in Central Asia and the South Caucasus is not simply a shift in trade routing or a reaction to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Instead, it is a deep structural reordering of Eurasia’s political economy that is in parts driven by generational change, unfettered economic ambition, and recalibrations of sovereignty. At the center of this transformation is the Middle Corridor, stretching from Central Asia across the Caspian and through the South Caucasus to Türkiye and Europe. Once a peripheral notion, it is now central to the entire region’s growth. No longer aspirational, the Middle Corridor has become a strategic instrument that binds roads, rails, ports, and policy into a single, multimodal system—one that extends beyond transportation to questions of power, choice, and sovereignty. The resulting whole is proving greater than the sum of its parts. The catalyst for this shift was crisis. When Russia invaded Ukraine for the second time in 2022, the resulting international sanctions regime effectively closed Central Asia’s licit access to the northern transport corridor that transits Russian territory. The resulting disruption derailed most of the region’s trade and exposed long‑tolerated structural vulnerabilities and dependence on Soviet‑era infrastructure still zealously controlled by Moscow. The shock and resulting transport vacuum forced Central Asian leaders to do three things. One, to make tectonic decisions that reoriented commercial and geopolitical linkages; two, to engage more pliable diplomatic postures; and three, to accelerate alternatives that had previously advanced only incrementally.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Infrastructure, Sanctions, and Connectivity
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Eurasia, and South Caucasus

431. From Conflict Zones to Supply Chain Zones: Critical Raw Materials and the Reconfiguration of Global Power

Author:: Han Ilhan
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The international system is entering a period of heightened fragmentation and strategic realignment. Economic security, supply chain resilience, and industrial competitiveness are increasingly central to national strategy. Within this evolving landscape, critical raw materials (CRMs) have moved from the margins of industrial policy to the center of geopolitical and geo‑economic planning. CRMs are foundational not only to the energy “transition,” but also to advanced manufacturing, digital infrastructure, aerospace systems, and defense technologies. Their strategic relevance derives from both their functional indispensability and the concentration of processing capacity within a limited number of jurisdictions. In several key mineral value chains, supply exposure remains highly concentrated, resulting in vulnerabilities for advanced economies whose industrial bases depend on secure and predictable access. As a result, diversification of supply has become a policy priority across multiple demand‑side economies. Yet the implications of CRMs extend beyond industrial competitiveness. The geography of CRM production and processing intersects with regions historically shaped by political tension, limited economic integration, and uneven development. As global supply chains are reconfigured, CRMs have the potential either to reinforce geopolitical rivalry or to anchor new forms of economic interdependence. Whether CRMs become instruments of intensified competition or foundations of structural stability will depend not only on resource endowment, but on the architecture of cooperation between supply‑side and demand‑side economies. The defining question is therefore not simply who controls resources, but how capital, technology, and long‑term strategy are aligned around them. Understanding the evolving global CRMs landscape requires examining both the policy responses of advanced economies and the institutional models that have shaped the current concentration of supply.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Supply Chains, International System, Raw Materials, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

432. Mothers’ connectivity gain, agency, and behavioral changes from their involvement in children’s distance learning program

Author:: Hashibul Hassan and Munshi Sulaiman
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: This study measures the long-term impacts of a mobile phone-based distance learning intervention on mothers’ digital connectivity, agency, and empowerment in rural Bangladesh. Building on a randomized controlled trial of an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) program conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic, we revisit participating households four years later to assess sustained outcomes and spillover effects. Results show that treated mothers experienced significant gains in digital connectivity (0.44 SD), digital literacy transfer (0.48 SD), agency (0.44 SD), economic empowerment (0.41 SD), and gender attitudes (0.65 SD). Educational spillovers were equally pronounced, with children in treated households scoring 0.53 SD higher on academic assessments and mothers reporting stronger aspirations for their children’s education. Mechanism analyses highlight digital literacy transfer as the central pathway, mediating substantial shares of empowerment, gender attitude change, mobile financial service use, and information access. Heterogeneous treatment effects reveal stronger impacts among less-educated and lower-income mothers, underscoring the importance of equitable access to technology. These findings demonstrate that low-tech, parent-led distance education programs can generate enduring maternal empowerment and educational benefits, positioning mothers as pivotal agents of digital inclusion and behavioral transformation.
Topic:: Economics, Behavior, Empowerment, Agency, Digital Connectivity, and Distance Learning
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

433. Show You the Money? Spouses’ Willingness-to-Pay to Hide or Reveal Income in Kenya

Author:: Jessica B. Hoel, Prachi Jain, and Anisha Singh
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: This paper studies preferences over income privacy within households using a laboratory experiment with low-income urban couples in Kenya that identifies willingness to pay for income hiding or transparency. We find that a substantial share of spouses are willing to sacrifice income to keep earnings hidden (36% of wives and 26% of husbands). At the same time, we document that a large fraction of spouses are willing to pay to reveal income to their partner (20% of wives and 31% of husbands). Using vignette-based survey experiments, we provide evidence on perceived motives and consequences of hiding and revealing income, including future-oriented investment, hedging against marital dissolution, and sanctions after financial disclosure. Together, these results challenge standard household models and provide a foundation to inform future cooperative and non-cooperative models of the household.
Topic:: Marriage, Household, Household Income, Laboratory Experiments, and Income Hiding
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

434. Poverty Traps

Author:: Oriana Bandiera, Robin Burgess, Anton Heil, and Munshi Sulaiman
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: Poverty traps are among the most influential yet elusive ideas in economics. This chapter reviews the challenges involved in identifying poverty traps and surveys the progress made over the past quarter-century. It examines both individual and societal traps and explores the links between them. Individual traps are feedback mechanisms that make poverty self-reinforcing. Societal poverty traps are interactions between workers or firms that create complementarities and can lead to multiple equilibria at an aggregate level. We also discuss evidence on the mechanisms that underlie each of these traps. We highlight open questions and draw policy implications.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, and Poverty Traps
Political Geography:: Global Focus

435. The Role of Military Gender Advisers in UN Peacekeeping Operations: Implications for Operational Effectiveness and The Future of Peacekeeping Operations

Author:: Phoebe Donnelly, Anna Naa Adochoo Mensah, and Olivia Parsons
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Implementing the women, peace, and security (WPS) agenda and mainstreaming gender have the potential to make UN peacekeeping operations more operationally effective, including by improving situational awareness and strengthening mission planning. Within this effort, military gender advisers (MGAs) play a central role in integrating a gender perspective across the military components of UN missions. This policy paper examines the role of MGAs in UN peacekeeping operations, drawing on interviews and survey data from gender advisers and focal points across missions. It discusses how MGAs are situated within the UN Peacekeeping Gender Architecture, variations in recruitment and training of MGAs, and the wide range of roles and responsibilities of MGAs. Furthermore, the paper identifies persistent challenges, including unclear job descriptions, short deployment cycles, limited training, and difficulties in coordination with civilian counterparts. The paper finds that the effectiveness of MGAs is shaped by factors such as leadership support, professional background, gender and cultural dynamics, and resource constraints. It underscores that as peacekeeping operations face financial pressures and structural reforms, ensuring that gender advisers are adequately trained, resourced, and integrated into mission planning will be critical to maintaining operational effectiveness.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Gender, Military, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

436. Are Missions Delivering on Gender-Responsive Peace Operations? Lessons from South Sudan and Somalia

Author:: Emmaculate Asige Liaga
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Gender-responsive peacekeeping operations are designed and implemented in ways that recognize gendered differences and inequalities and advance gender equality and the rights, protection, and participation of all genders as a core part of mandate delivery. Yet while normative commitments on women, peace, and security (WPS) have expanded considerably over the past two decades, these commitments have been unevenly translated into practice. This policy paper examines how gender-responsive peacekeeping has been operationalized in the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the African Union missions in Somalia (AMISOM and ATMIS), with a focus on mandates, institutional design, force composition, leadership, and community engagement. It finds that gender responsiveness depends less on formal commitments than on whether missions embed gender analysis into the operational systems that shape planning, protection, and decision making. The paper highlights how institutional placement of gender advisers, leadership support, deployment of women peacekeepers, and sustained community engagement can strengthen both mission effectiveness and legitimacy. At the same time, it underscores the persistent gap between procedural responsiveness to meet institutional requirements and transformative responsiveness that changes how missions operate and protect civilians in practice.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Leadership, Protection, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Africa, Somalia, and South Sudan

437. Capitalizing on Digital Financial Services for Clean Cooking Transitions

Author:: Annelise Gill-Wiehl, B. Kelsey Jack, Alex Appiah, Bernard Aryee, and Sule Awuni
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: Over 2 billion people worldwide still rely primarily on polluting solid fuels for cooking. These households often have intermittent incomes and purchase firewood or charcoal day-to-day. In many low and middle income countries, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is the main feasible clean fuel, but requires larger lump sum payments to refill or exchange cylinders. Even when LPG’s total cost matches biomass fuels, liquidity constraints can prevent households from switching. GasPay addresses this barrier — a phone-based digital financial service platform connecting users with LPG suppliers while providing a designated savings vehicle for refills. We describe the platform’s design, the motivation behind it, and estimate its potential impact on charcoal demand, LPG use, and carbon emissions. Our results reveal how digital financial services can unlock clean energy access and advance multiple development goals simultaneously.
Topic:: Gas, Carbon Emissions, Digital Finance, Energy, and Cooking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

438. UN Peace Operations and the Role of the Peacebuilding Fund

Author:: Lauren McGowan
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: As the UN reexamines the future of its peace operations amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and financial constraints, greater attention is being paid to how to leverage peacebuilding tools, including to support more coherent and sustainable transitions. In this context, the Peacebuilding Fund (PBF) has emerged as a central instrument for bridging operational, programmatic, and financial gaps—particularly in settings where peace operations are drawing down or have recently withdrawn. This policy paper examines the role of the PBF in UN peace operations contexts. Since its inception, the PBF has invested over $1.3 billion through nearly 700 projects in countries hosting UN peace operations. The paper finds that the PBF has been leveraged as a support mechanism, a strategic enabler, and a political tool. It also finds that the PBF has played an important role in supporting sustainable UN transitions. At the same time, while the PBF is a flexible and catalytic instrument, it is not a substitute for peace operations, and expectations regarding its role must remain realistic.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Geopolitics, Finance, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

439. Stabilizing Gaza and Shaping a Political Horizon: Conditions for an Effective International Stabilization Force

Author:: Emmanuelle Cousin, Arthur Boutellis, Jenna Russo, and Jaser Abu Mousa
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: The transition to Phase Two of the Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict, following the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2803 (2025), has brought renewed focus to the proposed International Stabilization Force (ISF). While the resolution authorizes the ISF as a central operational pillar of the next phase, significant uncertainty remains around its mandate, composition, sequencing, and relationship to emerging Palestinian governance arrangements. This issue brief examines the conditions under which the ISF could contribute to stabilization rather than exacerbate political and security risks. Drawing on IPI-led consultations and off-the-record discussions with regional actors, UN officials, member states, and Israeli and Palestinian experts, the brief unpacks key challenges related to anchoring stabilization in a credible political horizon, clarifying the division of labor among international and local actors, and sequencing deployment alongside Israeli withdrawal, Palestinian policing, and reconstruction. The brief surfaces critical questions for policymakers on mandate design, coordination, risk management, and legitimacy. It underscores that the ISF’s effectiveness will depend on its integration into a broader political framework, meaningful Palestinian participation, and clear benchmarks linking stabilization to a durable political process.
Topic:: Governance, Civilians, UN Security Council, Protection, and Stabilization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

440. The Glass Blue Helmet: Progress and Persistent Challenges for Women Military Peacekeepers

Author:: Lotte Vermeij
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Women’s meaningful participation in UN peacekeeping operations has advanced since 2020, but progress remains uneven and fragile. While dedicated training initiatives, peer-support structures, and women’s visibility in leadership roles have expanded, women peacekeepers continue to face structural barriers that limit their operational participation, safety, and career advancement. This policy paper draws on interviews with eighty-five women military peacekeepers from forty-three troop-contributing countries, along with consultations with UN officials, force commanders, and mission personnel. The paper examines the gap between the UN’s commitments on women’s meaningful participation and the realities women encounter in mission environments. It highlights persistent challenges including role misalignment, harassment, exclusion from operational decision making, inadequate equipment, and weak accountability systems. The paper argues that leadership is the decisive variable shaping women’s deployment experiences. It calls for linking training nominations to deployment commitments, tracking participation in substantive tasks rather than headcounts, embedding gender-responsive indicators in leadership evaluations, establishing confidential reporting channels outside national chains of command, and auditing equipment standards before deployment.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Women, Troop Deployment, and Military
Political Geography:: Global Focus

441. Africa in the G20 and Debt Sustainability

Author:: Bitania Tadesse, Patrick Hajayandi, and Tim Murithi
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: The African Union’s admission to the G20 as a permanent member in 2023 marked a major milestone in global economic governance, giving the continent its first collective seat at one of the most influential decision-making forums on debt, trade, climate finance, and development. While this corrected a long-standing imbalance in representation, key questions remain about whether this institutional presence will translate into substantive influence. This issue brief examines how the AU organizes its participation in the G20 and assesses the progress made under South Africa’s 2025 presidency, particularly on debt sustainability. It highlights initiatives such as the ministerial declaration on debt and the Africa Expert Panel proposals for reforms to the global debt architecture, while underscoring the continued limitations of existing G20 mechanisms, and the structural challenges posed by high borrowing costs.. The brief finds that while Africa has generated momentum within the G20, sustaining progress will require stronger coordination within the AU, the operationalization of key institutional mechanisms, and a more focused and strategic approach to advancing continental priorities in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Topic:: Debt, G20, Geopolitics, Sustainability, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: Africa

442. Local Care and Feminist Foreign Policy: Lessons Learned from Mexico City’s UTOPÍAS

Author:: Evyn Papworth
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: As feminist foreign policies face growing political backlash around the world, questions remain about how states can ensure these policies are grounded in the lived realities of the communities they seek to serve. One way to bridge the gap between international commitments and domestic implementation is through the care economy. This policy paper examines Mexico City’s UTOPÍAS—publicly funded community centers that provide care services, educational opportunities, cultural programming, and support for economic autonomy. Drawing on field research and interviews with policymakers, civil society representatives, and community members, the paper explores how these centers embody feminist principles through an intersectional approach to care, gender equality, and social inclusion. The paper argues that initiatives like the UTOPÍAS demonstrate how local governments can advance transformative care policies while contributing to broader feminist foreign policy goals. It highlights the potential of municipal feminist diplomacy and city-to-city exchanges as avenues for sharing innovative approaches to care, human security, and gender equality across borders.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economy, Feminism, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Latin America, Mexico, and Mexico City

443. Environmental and Conflict Displacement: Pathways to Sustainable Peace in East Asia and Incheon

Author:: Yonbeen Cho
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: East Asia faces simultaneous pressures from environmental degradation and conflict-driven displacement, both of which have become defining challenges for long-term regional stability. Rising sea levels, intensifying typhoons, and floods are contributing to the rapid growth of environmentally displaced populations, while unresolved geopolitical tensions continue to drive conflict-induced migration. Incheon, a coastal city mainly built on reclaimed tidal flats, exemplifies both the risks associated with climate change and the potential for leadership in regional resilience policy. This study analyzes the structural and human security implications of displacement in East Asia and argues that integrated governance, climate adaptation, and inclusive peacebuilding strategies are essential to mitigating humanitarian risks. By examining theoretical frameworks, regional case studies, and Incheon’s institutional capacity, this paper identifies recommendations to enhance long-term resilience and contribute to sustainable peace.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Displacement, Human Security, Resilience, Armed Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Asia and Incheon

444. Invisible Diaspora Among Koryo-saram Third Culture Kids (TCKs)

Author:: Hayoung Hwang
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This paper explores the shifting paradigm of security in the era of globalization, emphasizing the limitations of traditional state-centric models in addressing the needs of marginalized diaspora communities. Focusing on Korean Third Culture Kids (TCKs), particularly the Koryosaram in post-Soviet regions, it examines how double marginalization, unstable cultural identity, and a lack of institutional support shape their human, cultural, and community security experiences. By analyzing existing studies and policy frameworks, the study highlights the insufficient recognition and protection of these groups within Korea’s diaspora policy. The paper argues for an expanded understanding of security that encompasses identity, cultural cohesion, and community belonging for diaspora youth, presenting recommendations for more inclusive policy measures to strengthen the security and integration of TCKs as vital contributors to Korea’s global network.
Topic:: Migration, Diaspora, Culture, Human Security, Identity, Third Culture Kids, and Social Belonging
Political Geography:: Korea and Global Focus

445. Foreword: Rising Voices for Peace and Security: Reflections on the Next Generation of Changemakers

Author:: Roland B. Wilson
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The papers in this issue reflect the remarkable potential of a new generation of student-scholars whose voices increasingly signal a shift in how peace and security may be imagined on the Korean Peninsula and across East Asia. Mentoring undergraduate volunteers who prepared original research for the 2025 Incheon International Peace and Security Forum revealed a depth of curiosity, courage, and analytical maturity that challenges prevailing assumptions about today’s youth. While public discourse often characterizes younger cohorts as digitally absorbed, civically detached, or emotionally strained, with evidence of declining motivation, rising unemployment, and worsening mental-health indicators across many societies, the broader picture is far more complex. Even amid heightened anxiety and institutional mistrust, many Gen Z and Millennial students are demonstrating a renewed commitment to purpose, valuesdriven action, and prosocial engagement. International polling and global initiatives, including Youth2030, continue to document thousands of youth-led efforts advancing the public good, from climate resilience and cybersecurity to peacebuilding and community service.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Politics, Diaspora, Geopolitics, Polarization, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

446. Between Giants: Strategic Autonomy for East Asia’s Middle Powers in the U.S.–China Rivalry

Author:: Yoochan Kong
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The intensifying rivalry between the United States and China places South Korea in a delicate strategic position where great-power competition pushes Seoul to choose sides. However, the concept of strategic autonomy shows that middle powers can still navigate a narrow but meaningful path of agency. This paper focuses on how South Korea can sustain strategic autonomy amid U.S.–China rivalry by recalibrating its alliance with the United States, protecting itself from Chinese economic and political coercion, and diversifying partnerships in security, technology, and diplomacy. The central research question asks how South Korea can strengthen its autonomy while managing asymmetric dependence on the United States and growing vulnerability to China. Drawing on historical alliances, the THAAD deployment, and debates over technology alliances, the paper argues that autonomy is not neutrality but, rather, proactive leadership, institutional resilience, and a commitment to democratic values. By doing so, South Korea can shift from a reactive state to a proactive actor shaping a regional order based on freedom and stability.
Topic:: Cold War, Economics, Science and Technology, Alliance, Rivalry, Strategic Autonomy, Coercion, Middle Powers, and Conflict Analysis
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

447. Beyond Laughter: How Political Memes Can Threaten Peace in South Korea

Author:: Shin Mo
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This paper examines political memes as a hybrid phenomenon at the intersection of media culture and political discourse. From a communication studies perspective, memes function as cultural texts that condense complex issues into shareable, humorous, and symbolic narratives, shaping how citizens interpret events and political actors in digital spaces. From a political science perspective, memes also serve as tools of mobilization, identity formation, and contestation, amplifying grassroots activism while potentially fueling polarization and disinformation. Drawing on interdisciplinary scholarship and comparative examples, the analysis demonstrates how memes operate simultaneously as vehicles of satire, instruments of influence, and reflections of public sentiment. The paper argues that political memes are not trivial byproducts of online culture, but significant agents shaping political communication and democratic engagement in the digital era. It also highlights the potential role of Incheon and local academic institutions as important sites for researching, contextualizing, and educating about the political functions of memes in democratic and cross-cultural settings.
Topic:: Politics, Youth, Digital Culture, Polarization, Memes, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

448. The Pursuit of Smart Mobility in Urban Nodes: Trends and Innovation for Citizens and Freight

Author:: Carlo Secchi, Giovanni Maria Della Gatta, and Stefano Riela
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Urbanisation is transforming territories at an unprecedented pace, redefining how people and goods move within, between and beyond cities. As urban areas expand and interconnect, mobility systems are called to respond with greater efficiency, sustainability and resilience. At the core of this transformation are urban nodes – strategic interfaces where local and long-distance networks converge. Here, mobility is evolving from a fragmented set of transport modes into an integrated system shaped by accessibility, seamless connectivity and user experience. At the same time, freight mobility introduces additional complexity, requiring coordinated, multi-actor approaches and a gradual shift toward multimodal and adaptive logistics. Technological innovation is accelerating this transition. Data-driven tools, intelligent infrastructure and emerging solutions such as artificial intelligence and digital platforms are reshaping how mobility systems are planned and managed. Yet, the challenge extends beyond technology. Environmental sustainability, territorial cohesion and the integration of peripheral regions remain critical dimensions of this evolution. Smart mobility is thus emerging as a systemic paradigm – one that links infrastructure, governance and innovation. Its success depends not only on performance and efficiency, but on the ability to create more balanced, inclusive and future-oriented mobility systems.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Governance, Urbanization, Mobility, Innovation, Transportation, and Cities
Political Geography:: Global Focus

449. Relieving Borders: Youth, Soft Power, and the New Diplomacy for Peace in Korea

Author:: Suyoung (Sarina) Oh
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Despite decades of summits, declarations, and symbolic gestures, the Korean Peninsula remains ideologically divided and militarized. Traditional diplomacy has struggled under cycles of hope and disappointment, constrained by entrenched geopolitical realities and threat-based discourse. This paper argues that youth participation, cultural exchange, and soft power represent an emerging form of “new diplomacy,” a concept advanced in the field of peace and conflict resolution. This approach emphasizes positive and sustained forms of both direct and indirect contact, through cultural media, inter-Korean exchanges, and youth-driven initiatives, that reshape perceptions and identities beyond formal negotiations. Incheon, with its global networks and institutions, is highlighted as a strategic cultural gateway for fostering such exchanges. By analyzing cultural diplomacy, defector narratives, and peace education initiatives, the paper suggests that meaningful progress toward peace may be less about treaties and more about cultivating shared emotions, narratives, and imagination across borders.
Topic:: Youth, Soft Power, Borders, and Cultural Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

450. The Case for Cybersecurity Cooperation in Northeast Asia: Songdo, Korea as a Minilateralist Model

Author:: Hyunwoo Jo
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This paper examines the prospects for cybersecurity cooperation in Northeast Asia, where intensifying cyber dependencies intersect with great power rivalry. While claims of a “new era of warfare” are often overstated, cybercrime targeting private sectors has become increasingly widespread, and sophisticated attacks on critical infrastructure remain a pressing concern. Despite skepticism toward global “tech alliances,” minilateral cooperation offers a more pragmatic path for trust-building and information sharing. This study addresses two central questions: Can Northeast Asian middle powers foster meaningful cybersecurity cooperation despite great power tensions? And how can Korea, through Songdo, Incheon, leverage its technological capacity and middle-power identity to establish a regional cybersecurity hub? By exploring these questions, the paper highlights the potential of Songdo as a platform for shaping norms and advancing security governance in the cyber domain.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Cybersecurity, Collaboration, Minilateralism, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

451. IMEC: The Backbone of an Indo-Mediterranean Region. Italy and the Future of Transcontinental Connectivity

Author:: Nicola Missaglia, Valeria Talbot, Angela Stefania Bergantino, Giovanni Maria Della Gatta, and Roberto Italia
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment, initiatives aimed at strengthening resilience, diversifying supply chains and securing alternative corridors have become more urgent than ever. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced at the G20 Summit in 2023, is among the most ambitious of these initiatives. By linking India, the Gulf and Europe through an integrated network of maritime, rail, digital and energy infrastructure, the corridor could reshape connectivity across an emerging Indo-Mediterranean region. This new ISPI Report analyses IMEC’s strategic implications across transportation, energy and digital connectivity, while examining Italy’s potential role as a central Mediterranean gateway connecting Indo-Mediterranean flows to European markets. Can IMEC become the backbone of a new Indo-Mediterranean connectivity space? And how can Italy position itself at the heart of this emerging transcontinental architecture?
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, Trade, Energy, India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), and Digital Connectivity
Political Geography:: Europe, India, Italy, and Mediterranean

452. Space Companies and States: A Two-Horse Race?

Author:: Clelia Iacomino and Francesco Rosazza Boneitin
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In what has been described as the “Century of Space”, outer space has acquired growing strategic relevance, becoming increasingly intertwined with geopolitical competition and economic security considerations. As public and private actors become more interconnected, governments are actively shaping markets through regulation, procurement and strategic investment, in response to the technological and commercial transformation of the sector. At the same time, private companies have evolved from traditional contractors into strategic partners, assuming greater autonomy and responsibility across value chains. Rather than converging towards a single model, public-private cooperation in the space sector has followed differentiated trajectories, reflecting diverse national ambitions, institutional architectures and strategic priorities. What emerges is not a process of substitution between public and private actors, but a dynamic relationship of reciprocal interdependence, in which States and firms adapt and co-evolve over time.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Investment, Economic Security, Public-Private Partnership, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Space

453. Better regulation in the European Union needs a fresh start

Author:: Anne Bucher and Elizabeth Golberg
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Despite having developed a comprehensive and highly-rated regulatory policy system (so-called ‘better regulation’), involving consultation, impact assessments, evaluation, inter-institutional commitment and independent oversight, the European Union continues to face criticism for the volume, complexity, costs and administrative burden of its laws. This raises the question of whether something is wrong with the better-regulation system, or whether the EU institutions have failed to adequately apply the system. In fact, the system is robust but there are weaknesses in its application. There is no evidence that burden-reduction programmes or attempts to stem the ever-increasing flow of legislation have had desired effects. There are significant exceptions to the application of better regulation tools, including simplification efforts under the second Ursula von der Leyen Commission. Meanwhile, few assessments are conducted on legislative amendments approved by the European Parliament and the Council of the EU. The quality of assessments, particularly ex-post evaluations is wanting. Several steps could be taken to overcome these weaknesses. On the ever-increasing flow, political control could be strengthened by a dedicated Better Regulation Commissioner, the development of new conditions for preparing new laws and adoption of systematic regulatory pauses at the end and beginning of each Commission term. On coverage, the Council and the Parliament need to conduct assessments of their amendments. This could be facilitated through an inter-institutional mechanism using the initial impact assessment’s methodology. Given that they involve trade-offs and costs, some secondary legislation needs to be assessed in a proportionate manner. The quality of assessments could be improved by establishing a centre (or centres) of analytical expertise. This would build and continuously update a robust evidence base for policy areas. It could help streamline the analytical demands for impact assessments. Ex-post evaluations are key to improving the implementation of EU law. Externalising ex-post evaluations could improve their quality and facilitate better assessment of implementation gaps. In an increasingly complex, volatile and polarised political environment, better regulation is essential. The tools need to be applied consistently to support the policymaking process.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Regulation, Institutions, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe

454. Growth without profits: how will ‘involution’ in China end?

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: This paper analyses China’s economic ‘involution’, a phenomenon characterised by intense competition in overcrowded markets such as electric vehicles (EVs), price wars, declining profit margins and ongoing resource misallocation via ‘zombie firms’. Using data from Chinese listed companies, we decompose firm profits and find that, while firm-level total factor productivity (TFP) has risen since 2020, markups are falling. More granularly, firms across the productivity spectrum are compressing their profit margins to compete for market share. The fact that even companies without productivity gains are lowering prices has contributed to a growing share of loss-making zombie firms, which survive on the back of bank support or government subsidies, hindering consolidation. China’s policy efforts emphasise anti-involution measures including regulation of predatory pricing and promotion of orderly exits, but they have not yet solved the fundamental problem, as unproductive firms continue to operate. For Europe, this has heightened the concern that China’s involution-driven growth model is fuelling export expansion through persistent low-price competition, increasing the likelihood that the EU will strengthen its trade-defence measures, alongside efforts to raise its own productivity.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Economic Growth, Trade, Trade Policy, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

455. Europeans should be allowed to trade personal data

Author:: Paul Heidhues, Nick Jacobson, Giorgio Monti, and Fiona M. Scott Morton
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European debate over personal data trading has become trapped between two unworkable extremes: the status quo of allowing platforms unfettered access to user data, or making data sharing so difficult it is effectively banned. Neither position serves consumers’ interests. Personal data sharing can create substantial value – enabling relevant advertising and powering digital services – but currently this value is captured almost entirely by gatekeepers, while users surrender control of their commercial, location, social network and even sensitive medical data without meaningful consent or compensation. The critical policy challenge is to enable beneficial data sharing while protecting users’ fundamental privacy rights and ensuring they are fairly compensated for data they choose to share. The solution lies in creating well-regulated data markets. European Union regulators should establish a system that prohibits trading of personal data that is sensitive, sets a default that is both safe and gives users bargaining leverage, and mandates transparent and effective choice architectures to ensure users are informed. When a default allows users to access a platform’s free service in a more private way, the platform will have a financial incentive to encourage more data sharing. Platforms will need to compensate users to make active and informed choices to share more data. Platforms may also offer paid options to users who want to opt out of data sharing and to see no ads. This menu of three options – free, subsidised and costly – will allow users to make individual choices about sharing personal data in a safe and regulated environment. Such regulation would allow platforms to continue advertising-supported business models, while giving consumers genuine control and economic benefit from their data. Without functioning data markets, Europe faces two poor outcomes: either personalised advertising collapses and valuable digital content disappears, or courts permit platforms to continue exploiting users without consent, delegitimising privacy law. Well-designed data markets would enable fairness and contestability by allowing smaller digital competitors to obtain data on the same terms as big ones, and by sharing with users some of the hundreds of billions earned annually by platforms such as Google.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Microeconomics, Data, Economic Competition, and Single Market
Political Geography:: Europe

456. National plans, regional voices: cohesion policy in the next European Union budget

Author:: Zsolt Darvas, Marie-Sophie Lappe, Bo Sangers, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: For the 2028–2034 European Union budget (Multiannual Financial Framework, MFF), the European Commission has proposed to integrate cohesion, agricultural, migration and security policies – until now, standalone budget components – into a single framework, structured around National and Regional Partnership Plans (NRPPs). Some EU spending would also be reallocated from cohesion and agriculture to competitiveness, defence and external action, while the rules for disbursing cohesion and agriculture spending would link spending to national-level reform. This policy brief assesses this proposed re-organisation of cohesion policy against the criterion of European added value. We argue that the NRPP structure is conceptually sound. Integrating multiple policy areas within unified plans can reduce long-standing overlaps and coordination failures and support more strategic investment choices. There is scope to strengthen performance-based budgeting, including by using national reform milestones in certain cases. Finally, selective reduction of cohesion funding is justifiable. However, some significant changes should be made to the Commission’s proposal. Sub-national cohesion spending should be made conditional on national reform only if such reforms have beneficial local impacts or generate cross-border benefits. Policy-specific requirements should only apply to measures within that policy area. The Council of the EU and the European Parliament, rather than the Commission, should approve milestones and targets. The European Parliament should also participate in the approval and modification of NRPPs. A robust methodology is needed to ensure that milestones and targets are sufficiently ambitious across all plans, and that plans have a clear results focus. The consistency of regional and national objectives needs to be assured, and the derivation of national milestones and targets clarified. Independent evaluation is needed of NRPPs, the Commission’s assessments of NRPPs and the actual results achieved. Minimum thresholds should be set for inclusion of cross-border projects. Addressing these issues during MFF negotiations will be crucial to ensure that NRPPs enhance the European added value of cohesion policy.
Topic:: Governance, Budget, European Union, Investment, and Cohesion
Political Geography:: Europe

457. Better coordination for a more efficient European energy system

Author:: Alexander Roth, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Three steps should be taken to improve the efficiency of the European Union’s energy system: 1) enhance transparency through open data and modelling, 2) better integrate network planning with policy targets and across borders, and 3) strengthen alignment of national policies and plans. As the EU transitions towards greater reliance on domestically produced electricity, the economic stakes of fragmentation rise. These three elements are essential to address the weak coordination and incoherence of national system-development plans and policies. Moving beyond opaque planning by national grid companies will enable investors to set realistic expectations. A shared understanding of the system’s state and policy vision de-risks planning, accelerates deployment, lowers capital costs and reduces the risk of premature or stranded investments. To resolve the current lack of data transparency, an EU Energy Data Hub should be established to aggregate, clean and publish timely energy data, replacing the current reliance on opaque, fragmented and often private sources. EU-level integrated network planning would tie long-term energy and climate goals to strategic energy system development. While countries would continue to decide on their own energy mixes, this approach would ensure transparency and justify projects based on European welfare rather than special interests. Political cooperation should be strengthened by transforming current National Energy and Climate Plans into documents that guide public policies and investment, requiring stronger dialogue between EU countries and fostering trust between neighbours. This requires consistency across EU countries in terms of data and methodologies. The credibility of these plans would be based on links to EU policies, such as state-aid approval or subsidies for infrastructure projects. These recommendations aim to leverage the internal energy market as a strategic tool and to prevent regression to national, protectionist policies. By coordinating policies and infrastructure, the EU can ensure competitiveness and resilience, while transitioning to a decarbonised economy.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

458. Defragmenting European Union climate policy

Author:: Michael Pahle, Darius Sultani, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: There is broad agreement that the European Union’s post-2030 climate policy architecture – the framework of rules to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – needs to be simpler and more flexible, with market actors less constrained in how they mitigate emissions. However, simplification should not compromise the EU’s climate goals and changing the architecture is politically contentious. Ringfencing of established climate compliance mechanisms and any delay in containing the emissions of lagging sectors could result in even more fragmentation in an already-fragmented climate-policy architecture. The cost of maintaining this fragmentation will rise, making the system even more inefficient. Higher costs and limited control over emissions in some sectors will undermine the EU’s ability to credibly signal commitment to its climate target, undermining the confidence of investors and international partners. To avoid these risks, simplicity and flexibility must mean the application of a carbon price across all parts of the EU climate architecture, with prices converging gradually. This can be achieved by linking the different systems through exchange rates that guide convergence towards a common carbon price, with the EU emissions trading system as the central hub. Climate policy is most efficient when emissions reductions take place where they deliver the greatest climate benefit at lowest cost. Today’s fragmented climate architecture prevents the efficient allocation of abatement resources, such as clean energy. Firms increasingly have incentives – arbitrage opportunities – to shift mitigation activities between differently priced compliance systems, raising overall costs. As more sectors and international links are added to the EU’s climate architecture, these distortions will grow, requiring ever more intrusive and politicised regulation. Managed convergence of different climate policies should become a core design principle of the EU’s climate policy architecture. By predictably phasing out fragmentation, overly pervasive regulation and complexity can be avoided.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, European Union, Sustainability, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

459. Tackling India's jobs plight: underutilised levers and lessons from China

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Rajeswari Sengupta
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Despite strong GDP growth and a favourable demographic profile, India faces an impending jobs crisis. A large share of the workforce remains employed in low-productivity agriculture, while many new labour market entrants are absorbed into the persistently large informal sector. By contrast, China’s rapid ascent was driven by manufacturing-led, export-oriented industrialisation, underpinned by large inflows of foreign direct investment and sustained technology transfer. India’s manufacturing base remains modest in contrast. The bulk of well-paid, formal employment continues to be concentrated in the high-skill services sector. This paper contrasts the development trajectories of these two economies and identifies several underutilised jobs-growth levers in India: manufacturing, goods exports, manufacturing-oriented foreign direct investment and innovation. All of these remain underdeveloped, yet together they offer a pathway to more labour-absorbing, durable growth. Leveraging them effectively would be central to achieving India’s ‘Viksit Bharat 2047’ ambition of attaining high-income status. The scale of India’s challenge to employ eight to ten million labour-market entrants per year implies that job creation must become an explicit policy priority. This calls for greater trade openness, particularly with Asia and Europe, to integrate India into Asia-centric global supply chains as an alternative to China. Labour market reform is equally critical, making the effective implementation of the new labour codes essential. Strengthening innovation ecosystems and realigning education and skills policies to support industrialisation are also key. Without these structural shifts, India’s current pattern of jobless growth risks transforming its demographic dividend into a long-term liability.
Topic:: Employment, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, Trade Policy, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, and Asia

460. Risks for Europe of US dominance of global asset management

Author:: Dirk Schoenmaker
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Asset managers work on behalf of asset owners, such as pension funds and insurance companies, allocating their holdings of household or other savings. In Europe, the market share of United States asset managers is rising, while that of their European counterparts is declining. US asset managers may even be about to overtake European asset managers in Europe. However, there are differences between US and European asset managers, and these could play out in the context of the European Union’s savings and investment union plan. On environmental, social and governance (ESG) engagement, European asset managers remain active, while their US counterparts increasingly vote against social and environmental resolutions. This is counterproductive for Europe’s sustainable finance agenda. To preserve the efficiency and efficacy of the EU asset management market, three steps should be taken: 1) strengthen stewardship policies, 2) create a central supervisor and 3) enhance strategic autonomy. Stewardship policies should be tightened and asset managers should highlight how their ESG policies aligns with those of the asset owners for which they work. A major element of this tightening would be the requirement to publish a detailed record of voting on shareholder resolutions. Strong supervision by the European Securities and Markets Authority should ensure that US asset managers are appropriately supervised across the EU. Asset managers apply a hub-and-spoke model, operating from Dublin and Luxembourg. National supervisors cannot effectively oversee the Europe-wide operations, which may create blind spots. A successful savings and investment union needs strong European players to allocate European savings to European investments. The European Commission should act to counter a home bias towards US investments. When hiring asset managers, pension funds and insurers should evaluate not only the lowest cost in the short term, but also financial and ESG performance in the long term.
Topic:: Climate Change, Finance, Investment, Sustainability, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

461. Carbon pricing beyond borders: assessing climate policy spillovers from the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism

Author:: Anna Bahí, Maximilian Fuchs, and Camille Reverdy
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union has some of the world’s most ambitious climate policies, yet it only accounts for a small share of global carbon emissions. Achieving meaningful global emissions reductions thus depends on other countries strengthening their own climate policies. The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) incentivises EU trading partners to adopt domestic carbon pricing systems to retain carbon revenues at home. Whether this incentive is sufficient to encourage such policy diffusion is an important question for global climate governance. This paper examines whether CBAM has increased the adoption of carbon pricing policies in third countries. Using data on trade exposure to CBAM-covered sectors and the evolution of carbon pricing mechanisms in 163 countries between 2014 and 2025, we estimate the effect of exposure to CBAM on the likelihood of non-EU countries adopting carbon pricing policies. We find that countries with greater trade exposure to CBAM have significantly increased announcements of carbon pricing policies since the European Commission previewed CBAM in 2019. On average, a one-percentage point increase in a country’s CBAM exposure raises the probability of adopting a carbon pricing policy by about 2 percent. This result suggests that the EU’s CBAM can generate positive international spillovers by encouraging the wider adoption of carbon pricing policies. However, these effects are concentrated among high- and upper middle-income countries, indicating that developing countries face technical and institutional constraints in adopting similar carbon pricing policies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Trade Policy, Decarbonization, Green Deal, Energy, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Europe

462. Investing for tomorrow: long-term investment, economic scale and the green transition

Author:: Philip Ushchev and Guntram B. Wolff
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: We seek to explain positive correlations between green investments and long-term financial holdings, the size of the economy and the variance in GDP. To this end, we develop a model for green investments that expands on a standard non-cooperative private provision of public goods game, with heterogeneous agents and intertemporal choices. Agents differ in, first, time preference and, second, wealth/income. Our model shows that: (a) green bonds tend to account for larger shares of the portfolios of long-term oriented investors, (b) larger economies tend to invest more in climate mitigation, and (c) more heterogeneity among types of agents increases climate investments. Our model has significant implications for climate policy: it points to the importance of long-term investors in the green transition and to the importance of larger groups of countries agreeing on cooperative frameworks, for example, in the form of climate clubs, to increase overall investment in climate mitigation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Investment, Macroeconomics, Sustainability, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

463. EU aid for domestic revenue mobilisation after the Sevilla Commitment

Author:: Roel Dom, Costanza Greppi Maturana, and Pascal Saint-Amans
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Mobilising domestic revenue in lower-income countries has become more urgent in the face of rising debts, tighter global financial conditions, climate pressures and weakening aid inflows. In this context, the 2025 Sevilla Commitment, in the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, marked an important political step. Donors pledged to collectively at least double support for domestic revenue mobilisation (DRM) in partner countries by 2030, especially those countries seeking to raise tax-to-GDP ratios to at least 15 percent. This Policy Brief argues that the European Union, as one of the largest donors for DRM, should play a central role in turning that pledge into credible action. Donor support for DRM in low-income countries is justified by several closely linked goals: financing domestic development, enhancing the stability and predictability of public finances, reinforcing state-building processes, advancing donors’ own long-term financial interests and the growing empirical evidence that external assistance can effectively strengthen tax capacity. Nevertheless, aid for DRM has been volatile and insufficient. Although the Addis Tax Initiative placed DRM firmly on the international agenda in 2015, donor disbursements have fallen short of agreed targets. The EU remains one of the largest donors, but its support fluctuates and does not consistently prioritise low-income countries. The Sevilla Commitment and the related Seville Declaration on DRM create an opportunity to reverse this trend. The EU should provide stable annual funding consistent with its commitments, more effectively target low-income countries and those below the 15-percent threshold. It should also adopt a clearer strategy linking DRM aid to broader development strategies such as the Global Gateway, while strengthening international partnerships, for example with regional tax organisations, and taking into account tensions in its relationship with the Global South on international tax cooperation. Together, these steps would make EU support more credible, strategic and effective.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Multilateralism, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Europe

464. The European Union’s external imbalances: past, future and policy

Author:: Zsolt Darvas, Costanza Greppi Maturana, Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, Camille Reverdy, Bo Sangers, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: External imbalances have returned to the policy agenda, partly because current account imbalances have widened for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of the late 2000s. However, while China’s large surplus was the main counterpart to the United States’s deficit before the GFC, both China and the European Union are now projected to run comparable surpluses. The shift in the EU current account from broadly balanced in the early 2000s to a persistent surplus of around 3 percent of GDP reflects the elimination of deficits in southern and eastern Europe by 2012, driven largely by declining investment. These were not offset by a fall in surpluses elsewhere in the EU and the EU’s current account surplus is likely to persist well beyond the medium term, until demographic shifts reduce savings rates. This is by itself unlikely to create significant problems for the global economy. However, it highlights an internal issue for several EU countries and for the EU as a whole: structurally weak domestic investment. Not all investment-enhancing policies will reduce the surplus. For example, transitioning to fully-funded pension systems could support capital market development, investment and growth, but might also raise savings rates. But there is plenty of scope to both stimulate investment and lower the surplus: reforms to improve the business environment, further deepening and integration of European capital markets and EU fiscal rules reform to better support public investment.
Topic:: Demographics, European Union, Investment, Fiscal Policy, Trade Policy, Capital, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: China and Europe

465. A new strategy to contain stablecoin risks in the European Union

Author:: Lucrezia Reichlin, Bo Sangers, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Stablecoins – a form of tokenised money issued primarily by non-banks – promise efficiency gains in payments but also bring new risks to financial stability and monetary control. Because of this, European Union policymakers have so far discouraged the development of stablecoins, instead favouring tokenised deposits issued by banks. This approach might well make sense in a one-jurisdiction world, but risks being counterproductive in the context of dollar-denominated stablecoins encouraged by the United States authorities. EU policy could push European demand for stablecoins outside the EU’s regulatory perimeter, leaving EU holders of dollar stablecoins exposed to US currency risks and US fiscal risks. The EU would also risk adoption by the digital settlement architecture of European financial markets of dollar-based conventions, and settlement activity may migrate away from the Eurosystem’s payments infrastructure in tokenised segments. A strategy to contain these risks without a regulatory race to the bottom should include: Acceleration of the European Central Bank’s Appia project to establish interoperability between digital ledger technology platforms and ECB payments infrastructure; Dispensing with the regulatory requirement to hold a large share of stablecoin reserves in the form of bank deposits; Allowing EU stablecoin issuers to remunerate stablecoin holders directly, as long as the remuneration rate is below the rate on ECB reserves and standard deposit rates; Giving EU-regulated stablecoin issuers access to the ECB’s balance sheet, including to lending-in-last-resort facilities.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Monetary Policy, European Union, Digital Economy, Cryptocurrencies, Digital Currency, Fintech, and Stablecoins
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

466. When oil is scarce and debt is binding: policy sequencing under a severe energy supply shock

Author:: Gene Frieda
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The 2026 Iran energy shock differs categorically from the 2022 episode, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to rerouting of oil and gas supply. The 2026 shock eliminates supply, with a volume loss exceeding 1973-74 and a full energy bill running at two or more times the crude-only estimate. Two features compound the difficulty for the euro area, United States, United Kingdom and Japan: weaker fiscal positions driving term premia higher and a live inflation regime in which tightening is now binding and costly. Narrow fiscal space may therefore force temporary monetary-fiscal coordination: targeted fiscal support to stabilise output, paired with conditional yield anchor operations that prevent financing stress from crowding out that support, while leaving the long end of the curve free to carry the inflation signal. The novelty is the inflation regime. This paper defines the conditions under which such purchases remain credible when inflation, fiscal sustainability and external adjustment bind simultaneously. Three conclusions follow. First, the binding constraint is not the mechanics of bond-buying but the market’s belief in a credible exit and tightening option. Second, that belief depends on initial conditions, so coordination is not universally available: the credibility window is widest for the US, fragmentation-exposed in the euro area, foreign-exchange-cushioned in Japan and narrowest in the UK. Third, if coordination is feasible, it should be pre-committed, conditional and bounded by a published exit rule, otherwise procyclical adjustment analogous to emerging-market sudden stops becomes the default.
Topic:: Oil, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Public Debt, Energy, and 2026 Iran War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

467. Challenges to the integration of the Western Balkans into European Union supply chains

Author:: Madalena Barata da Rocha, Niclas Poitiers, and Nina Vujanović
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Western Balkan economic integration with the European Union has advanced significantly over the past two decades, driven by trade liberalisation and significant EU foreign direct investment in the region. Yet integration remains incomplete. Though tariffs have been eliminated, firms in the region continue to face substantial trade costs to access the EU market. These costs stem from a range of non-tariff barriers, regulatory requirements and border-related frictions, which have become more pronounced over time. This paper identifies the critical barriers currently shaping the trade relations between the EU and the Western Balkans. These include non-tariff measures, particularly sanitary and phytosanitary and technical regulations, inefficient cross-border infrastructure and the new EU regulatory frameworks, including the carbon border adjustment mechanism, the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive. Building on this analysis, the paper assesses the extent to which the current EU framework addresses these barriers. It shows that existing instruments, including Stabilisation and Association Agreements with Western Balkan countries, and the New Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, amount to an incomplete and ambiguous framework for reducing non-tariff barriers prior to full membership. A more targeted and differentiated approach is needed, allowing for a more flexible integration into EU value chains, alongside increased support for regulatory alignment, border efficiency and infrastructure improvements.
Topic:: European Union, Trade Policy, Supply Chains, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

468. Defence innovation and procurement reform: an empirical evaluation of the US Defense Innovation Unit

Author:: Ethan Kapstein, Javier Ospital, and Guntram B. Wolff
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Battlefields are evolving rapidly, with new technologies reshaping military strategy and tactics. Many of the new technologies originate in firms outside the traditional defence sector, rather than with the existing prime contractors. In the United States, the Department of Defense (DoD) created the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) in 2015 to incentivise commercial tech companies to work on national security challenges. How successful has this new unit been in achieving its mission? We provide the first causal evaluation of the DIU’s effects on defence procurement. Using administrative procurement data and a firm-level panel covering 2017-2025, and employing propensity score matching, additional firm-level covariates and a staggered difference-in differences design, we find that the DIU has expanded both the extensive and intensive margins of defence contracting. We find not only a significant increase in the likelihood of receiving a DoD contract because of DIU treatment, but also in the size of the contract. Our findings show that defence innovation organisations can broaden and deepen the defence-supplier base. Governments updating their defence acquisition strategies in response to the lessons from recent conflicts can benefit from reforms that facilitate firm entry into procurement, overcoming the transaction cost and information asymmetry problems typical in defence markets.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Macroeconomics, and Innovation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

469. A plan to revitalise the World Trade Organization

Author:: Ignacio Garcia Bercero
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The World Trade Organization (WTO) is experiencing a serious crisis arising from tensions that are internal to the global trading system and other tensions rooted in domestic political constraints in the United States and China and the geopolitical rivalry between them. In this context, four critical areas for WTO reform can be identified: joint action to support sustainable development, improving disciplines on subsidies, facilitating the integration of plurilateral agreements into the WTO framework and, as a culmination of the reform process, reforming dispute settlement. WTO reform will require willingness on the part of the European Union to lead in establishing a coalition of middle powers based on its network of free trade agreements. Because of uncertainty about the extent to which the US and China are prepared to engage, the EU and its partners should also be ready to take plurilateral initiatives outside the WTO, provided these contribute to the reinforcement of the rules-based trading system.
Topic:: World Trade Organization, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Trade, Trade Policy, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

470. Debt sustainability in Japan and the case for a fiscal council

Author:: Tomomi Miyazaki, Marie-Sophie Lappe, and Roel Dom
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Japan combines the highest public debt ratio among advanced economies with a fiscal framework that has struggled to anchor fiscal policy. As monetary policy normalises and interest rates rise, concerns about debt sustainability have intensified. We assess Japan’s debt dynamics using stochastic debt sustainability analysis, and examine the institutional foundations of its fiscal framework. We show that debt outcomes are highly sensitive to growth assumptions. Under plausible baseline scenarios, debt does not stabilise without sustained primary surpluses and even optimistic growth assumptions require fiscal adjustment relative to the current structural primary balance. Japan’s challenge is institutional as well as economic: weak enforcement of fiscal rules and the absence of independent oversight undermine credibility. Strengthening fiscal institutions, particularly through an independent fiscal council, could support debt stabilisation.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Public Debt
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

471. Beyond tariffs: why Europe and India must prioritise investment into manufacturing

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Rajeswari Sengupta, and Nina Vujanović
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The signing of the EU-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in January 2026 represents a significant milestone in bilateral economic relations, for both sides. However, it fails to address a more critical challenge: India's persistent struggle to attract manufacturing foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper argues that India requires more manufacturing FDI not only for financial resources, but as the principal means of knowledge transfer and boosting employment creation. This paper documents India’s substantial underperformance in attracting FDI compared to China and ASEAN countries. China's manufacturing FDI ecosystem has yielded high returns for foreign investors and technological spillovers for domestic firms. In contrast, India has primarily attracted capital to the services sector, where investment has flowed largely into captive, foreign-owned offshore units with limited backward linkages to independent domestic firms, or into private equity and venture capital funds that typically acquire existing assets, thereby weakening the typical knowledge-transfer channels. The European Union, already India's largest investor and the world's leading source of outward FDI, possesses both the strategic interest and the financial means to help bridge this gap, especially as European firms re-evaluate their exposure to China, and because India offers a vast and rapidly growing consumer market. Despite this, EU FDI into Indian manufacturing remains significantly lower than what India's growth rate and investment returns would suggest. A lack of credible investor protection could be partially responsible for this, and the FTA, as it stands, lacks investment-protection provisions which could play a vital role in meaningfully redirecting European manufacturing capital towards India.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Employment, Economic Growth, Investment, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

472. Federal Government Spending Is a Leaky Bucket

Author:: Chris Edwards and Ryan Bourne
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: People often hold optimistic views about federal government spending programs. They assume that new and expanded programs can fix the nation’s social and economic problems. The government is a powerful institution, and so people think that it can steer funding to individuals, businesses, and nonprofit groups to solve problems and aid those in need. However, solving problems through the federal government is not so simple. Spending programs require funding from taxation or borrowing, and both create collateral damage on the economy. As funds flow through the government, resources are wasted on bureaucracy, mismanagement, and faulty planning. As the remaining funds flow out of the government and into the private sector, they induce people to change their working and investing activities, further undermining the economy. Only a fraction of the tax dollars raised for programs ultimately delivers on the outcomes promised by policymakers. Economist Arthur M. Okun described this problem as a “leaky bucket.” When the government imposes taxes on some people to aid others, it is not a costless transfer of resources. Rather, it is like transferring water using a bucket riddled with holes. In this study, we describe the many types of holes in the government bucket, and we argue that the leakage of resources is large. We also argue that the government bucket gets leakier as federal programs and bureaucracies continue to expand. With the government running huge budget deficits, policymakers should rethink the many costly programs that it runs. Some programs are essential, and so policymakers should preserve them while reducing the types of waste or leakage that we identify. But many other programs are so leaky that their costs outweigh their benefits. These programs are spilling economic resources all over and should be eliminated from the federal budget.
Topic:: Government, Public Spending, and Fundraising
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

473. Artificial-intelligence competition in2026 Europe: the role of DMA Article 6(7)

Author:: Fiona M. Scott Morton
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Commission’s first Digital Markets Act Article 6(7) specification, issued in draft form in April 2026, is a substantive and well-targeted intervention. It identifies the access points that determine whether an artificial-intelligence assistant can function effectively on a Google Android device (through invocation surfaces, contextual data, on-device actions and system-level model resources) and it requires Google to share those access points with qualifying rival providers on terms equivalent to those Google’s own services receive. If the specification is finalised and enforced as drafted, it will prevent monopolisation of AI services and shortcut the need for a long and ineffective antitrust case. The specification may also create a valuable side effect: a material increase in AI innovation in Europe. European AI entrants and non-European AI providers serving European consumers will see that Europe is a level playing field on which innovators can compete. The merits of an AI service, rather than whether it already owns a distribution channel, will determine its commercial success. The expected return from founding an AI company in Europe would rise accordingly, as would the expected return from investing in one. The remaining gap is on the iOS side. It seems likely that Apple will not want to wait too long before selling Siri-enabled handsets to 500 million European citizens. Apple’s compliance with the DMA will determine if the Apple-Google Gemini partnership needs to be investigated to ensure it does not lessen competition in AI services in Europe.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Microeconomics, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

474. Planning for the rising fiscal costs of climate disasters

Author:: Heather Grabbe, Ugnė Keliauskaitė, Marie-Sophie Lappe, Irene Monasterolo, Massimo Tavoni, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Climate-related disasters are affecting the public budgets of a number of European Union countries, with government spending replacing low insurance coverage in a context of more frequent and intense extreme weather in the future. The experience of the direct costs from floods and droughts in six EU countries between 2021 and 2024 demonstrates the extent to which fiscal costs are affected by reliance on ad-hoc allocations from public budgets after such events. Fewer losses would fall on the state if private insurance played a bigger role and if governments invested more in prevention, adaptation and public risk financing. The ‘integrated framework for European climate resilience and risk management’ under preparation by the European Commission can help to manage the fiscal risks by establishing national and European plans that foster: Proactive public and private adaptation, with incentives for preventive investments and avoidance of state bailouts following disasters. Narrowing the climate insurance protection gap so public budgets act less as the insurer of last resort. Incentive-compatible government relief funds with ‘build-back-better’ conditions for all reconstruction projects. Coordination of adaptation investment and potentially risk-pooling across the EU. Integration of resilience into EU economic governance, with the creation of a European risk-sharing instrument that builds on EU disaster funds and a governance framework for adaptation finance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, European Union, Investment, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

475. Green finance or financing green? Bridging the EU’s sustainable-finance and capital-market architectures

Author:: Rebecca Christie
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union has not done a good job of integrating its green goals with its overall approach to finance. Sustainability disclosure and capital markets policy are too separate, even though they both operate in the same global environment. Projects that help the climate transition need money, meaning they need optimal market conditions as well as environmental credentials. Connecting market and green-finance policies would help. At their best, sustainable finance disclosures are used by companies for self-assessment, peer comparison and aligning business models with the needs of the green transition. This, in turn, can lead to innovation, jobs and growth, and more care for the natural environment. At their worst, these disclosures become compliance burdens, demanding tremendous resources to produce data that is little used. EU efforts to simplify sustainable finance rules have not reduced complexity or reconciled the EU’s departures from global sustainable finance standards. To make its sustainable finance policy more fit for purpose, the EU should prioritise the solving of technical challenges; look beyond green bonds to equities, venture capital and other asset classes; use guarantees and subsidies sparingly to incentivise investment and market tools such as securitisation; reduce the role of the EU taxonomy and simplify data collection; and pare back the role of so-called double materiality so that EU rules can be more compatible with global standards, such as those developed by the International Sustainability Standards Board.
Topic:: Finance, Investment, Sustainability, Banking, Green Deal, and Capital Markets
Political Geography:: Europe

476. Competing for inputs: how the European Union can improve critical raw materials supply security

Author:: Madalena Barata da Rocha and Camille Reverdy
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Critical raw materials (CRMs) are essential to the European Union’s green and digital transition, underpinning technologies from batteries to semiconductors. Demand is expected to increase hugely by 2050, yet CRM supply chains remain highly concentrated and exposed to geopolitical and market risks. The EU also faces growing competition from Japan and the United States, both of which are actively securing CRM supply through third-country partnerships and domestic investment. We analyse the internal and external aspects of the EU strategy on CRMs, drawing on data on the 60 CRM strategic projects, EU CRM strategic partnerships with third countries and trade agreements with CRM provisions. We find that strategic projects are unlikely to meet EU self-sufficiency targets and strategic partnerships have not yet produced measurable trade effects. So far, provisions in trade agreements have been the EU’s most effective external instrument, leading to significant increases in CRM exports to the EU. The EU should better align CRM investments with supply risks, strengthen CRM governance through strategic partnerships and trade frameworks and ensuring support for CRM projects. It should engage cautiously with price-floor proposals led by the United States, favouring instead bilateral off-take agreements and plurilateral cooperation involving developing supplier countries, with the goal of serving broad supply-security objectives.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Investment, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

477. A plan for a World Trade Organization sectoral agreement on semiconductors

Author:: Petros C. Mavroidis and Mario R. Palacios
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: To promote their economic security, or simply to inflict damage on other nations, countries are increasingly weaponising trade policy. To do so, trading nations must sidestep the rules-based system established in the aftermath of the Second World War because this system, in letter and spirit, opposes such behaviour. However, neglecting the rules-based system leads to uncertainty, and uncertainty incentivises trading nations to intensify their pursuit of national economic security, thus undermining the multilateral edifice even more. It does not have to be this way, however. Based on an analysis of trade in semiconductors (a product market in which there is clear weaponisation of trade policy), we argue that, while a comprehensive negotiation on economic security may be currently unrealistic, a sectoral agreement within the World Trade Organization would be both feasible and appropriate, and could provide a template for regulating economic security. Such an agreement should include non-discriminatory trade in high-end semiconductors and a negotiated list of segments of the covered product market, in which signatories will be allowed to erect barriers to protect economic/national security without being obliged to compensate affected parties.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, World Trade Organization, Governance, Multilateralism, Trade Policy, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: Global Focus

478. To what extent can green infrastructure investment mitigate China’s clean-energy overcapacity?

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Haoxin Mu
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: China’s industrial policies have made it the global leader in the manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines and other renewable technologies, but at the cost of severe overcapacity that is now compressing margins across the entire sector. This paper evaluates greater investment in power infrastructure as a potential solution to stimulate energy demand, reduce curtailment and alleviate the renewable tech manufacturing overcapacity problem. Using scenario analysis, we show that grid expansion provides meaningful near-term demand relief, though supply-side consolidation remains necessary to restore durable market equilibrium.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Investment, Trade Policy, and Energy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

479. World Trade Without the US

Author:: James Bacchus
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: As the Trump administration imposes a barrage of illegal and unprecedented tariffs on an ever-increasing number of imported products, the rest of the world is showing that it can continue trading despite these tariffs and without the United States. Other countries are lowering trade barriers with each other by concluding new bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements, and exporters are reconfiguring supply chains to route around American protectionism. Regardless of whether the United States remains indispensable to the global economy, international trade is still happening—and it is happening increasingly without the United States. At the same time, these countries should not be doing what they have mostly been doing: forging new trading arrangements outside the World Trade Organization (WTO). Although the temptation to go outside the WTO legal framework is understandable, the better course of action would be for the other 165 WTO members to redouble their efforts toward trade liberalization within the institution while taking a different approach. That approach should be WTO-based plurilateralism that can build up to multilateralism, which is precisely how, over decades, the original General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) evolved into the WTO. For this approach to succeed, WTO members must move on from their continued insistence on decisionmaking by consensus, without waiting any longer for the United States. Consensus and American engagement at the WTO is ideal, but plurilateral agreements represent an opportunity to address unfinished business and negotiate rules that meet the demands of the 21st-century economy, while also leaving the door open for other countries to join any agreements if they are willing to be bound by them. The 165 other WTO members must also stand together to defend their rights under the WTO treaty. Although the singular actions of the United States have, at least for now, reduced the Appellate Body to a paper tribunal, that does not have to mean other WTO members have no recourse for standing up to the Trump administration’s bullying and for holding the US accountable under WTO dispute settlement.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Tariffs, Trade, Donald Trump, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

480. Politically Motivated Killers: 51 Years of Terrorist Murders on US Soil, 1975–2025

Author:: Alex Nowrasteh
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Politically motivated terrorists are nonstate actors who commit violence to achieve political, ideological, religious, or social goals. Charlie Kirk’s recent assassination prompted many Americans to worry about the scale and scope of politically motivated violence. However, politically motivated terrorism is a small and vastly overstated threat regardless of the ideological motivations of the attackers. The 208 terrorist attackers who killed at least one person on US soil between January 1, 1975, and December 31, 2025, murdered 3,577 people. Murders in politically motivated attacks account for about 0.35 percent of all murders during that time, which translates to an annual chance of being killed in such an attack of about 1 in 4 million per year. The deadliest motivating ideology for those attacks is Islamism, which accounts for a total of 87 percent of all deaths and includes those who were murdered in the 9/11 attacks. Right-wing ideology is the second deadliest motivation at 10 percent, left-wing ideology at 2 percent, and unknown/other, foreign nationalism, and separatism together accounting for less than 1 percent of all murders. Two attacks are responsible for most of the terror deaths on US soil: 9/11 and the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing. Those two attacks caused 3,147 deaths, which is 88 percent of all terrorist murders over the 51-year period. Of the other 430 murders, right-wing terrorists account for 45 percent of people murdered, Islamists are responsible for 32 percent, left-wing terrorists are responsible for 16 percent, and attackers motivated by the other ideologies account for the remainder. The number of politically motivated killings is not increasing over time. Of course, murders don’t capture the totality of politically motivated violence or the amorphous feelings that people have that American politics are out of control. However, they are the best measure of the actual violence and an excellent indicator that the United States is not suffering through a wave of politically motivated terrorist killings.
Topic:: Political Violence, Terrorism, Non State Actors, and Ideology
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

481. Ending Community Development Subsidies

Author:: Chris Edwards
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) spent more than $20 billion on community development subsidies in fiscal year 2025. The spending flows to state and local governments for housing projects, welfare programs, disaster aid, sidewalk repairs, pickleball courts, business support, grants to nonprofit groups, and many other activities. Congress launched many community development programs in the 1960s to aid poor inner cities. Federal experts were supposed to skillfully help local officials grow their economies. That was the idea, but today HUD’s community development aid is spread widely to both poor and wealthy areas, and experience has shown that aid imposes costly bureaucracy on local investment activities. The Trump administration has proposed eliminating most of HUD’s community development spending. Given the need to reduce federal budget deficits, it makes sense to cut funding for local activities that local governments can fund for themselves. Also, HUD’s community development programs are plagued by intense paperwork, fraud and corruption, and pork-barrel politics. Americans would be better off funding investments such as sidewalk repairs locally, rather than sending their taxes to Washington and hoping that some of it trickles through the bureaucracies and back to their neighborhoods. Congress should end federal subsidies for community development. Local public services and investments should be funded by local governments and the private sector.
Topic:: Development, Investment, Private Sector, Public Service, Subsidies, and Local Government
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

482. The Future of Online Expression and Innovation Depends on Robust Section 230 Protections

Author:: David Inserra
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Section 230 is a cornerstone of how online speech works in the United States. It allows websites and platforms to host user-generated content without being legally responsible for everything their users say, while still giving them the freedom to remove content that they and their users may find objectionable. This legal framework helped the internet grow into a place where millions of Americans can speak, create, organize, and do business. Section 230 removed legal incentives that discouraged content moderation, allowing online platforms to engage in the moderation of user-generated content without assuming liability for all user speech. Section 230 has enabled more free expression and innovation by protecting platforms from being held legally responsible for everything posted by their users. Weakening or repealing Section 230 would backfire, pushing platforms to over-remove lawful speech, limit features, or exit markets to manage legal risk. Expanding platform liability would entrench large incumbents by raising legal and compliance costs that small and new companies cannot absorb, ultimately reducing competition and innovation. As new technologies emerge, such as generative AI, preserving a stable speech-protective liability framework is essential for the United States to remain a leader in innovation and free expression.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Freedom of Expression, Innovation, and Speech
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

483. COVID-19 Slowed but Couldn’t Stop the Fall in Global Inequality

Author:: Chelsea Follett and Vincent Geloso
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Over the long run, global inequality has declined dramatically across many dimensions as living standards have improved. While a substantial reduction in worldwide inequality occurred between 1990 and 2021, the last two years in that range reveal far slower progress, reflecting pandemic-era stagnation. These findings underscore the vital role of undisturbed markets in sustaining the trajectory of human progress, as well as the vulnerability of political liberty in times of perceived crisis. The Inequality of Human Progress Index reveals that pandemic-driven shocks to the global economy slowed advances, halting the momentum of earlier growth across many measures of human well-being and stalling progress toward the world becoming better off and more equal. Still, long-run global progress has been more substantial and widely shared than previously recognized. These findings challenge popular narratives of rising global inequality. Such views have inspired calls for unprecedented interventions, including global wealth taxes, expanded foreign aid programs, and massive redistributive policies—proposals that would be counterproductive to the continuation of broadly shared human advancement.
Topic:: Inequality, COVID-19, Global Economy, and Human Progress Index
Political Geography:: Global Focus

484. Understanding Debanking: Evaluating Governmental, Operational, Political, and Religious Financial Account Closures

Author:: Nicholas Anthony
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: This study examines the growing phenomenon of debanking—the sudden and often unexplained closure of individuals’ or organizations’ financial accounts. While media and political narratives often attribute these closures to political or religious discrimination, this study finds that the majority of debanking cases stem from governmental pressure. To identify this cause more accurately, the study distinguishes between four forms of debanking—governmental, operational, political, and religious—evaluating each form in turn. Based on public evidence, governmental debanking appears to be the most significant issue. Congress can correct this issue by reforming the Bank Secrecy Act, repealing confidentiality laws, and permanently ending reputational risk regulation. Doing so would reduce the incentives to debank, expose how widespread debanking has become, and cut out the tools that the government has used to pressure banks and other financial institutions.
Topic:: Government, Financial Institutions, Debanking, and Financial Disclosure
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

485. How Viktor Orbán’s Hungary Eroded the Rule of Law and Free Markets

Author:: Johan Norberg
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Some US conservatives see Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Hungary as a model for America’s future. In reality, Orbán’s crude majoritarianism has undermined the rule of law and media freedom in Hungary to take control of the economy and funnel resources to loyal oligarchs. The dismantling of institutional constraints on state power has gone further than in other modern democracies, and the results have consistently disappointed, even in areas where the government claims achievements such as strengthening the economy or increasing fertility rates. Far from being a model, Orbán’s Hungary is a cautionary tale of what results from an unrestrained executive with strongly centralized power, crony capitalism, and the systematic dismantling of the rule of law.
Topic:: Capitalism, Rule of Law, Cronyism, Free Market, and Viktor Orbán
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

486. Addressing Civil Investigative Demand Overreach at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Author:: Solveig Singleton
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: he Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB, or the Bureau) often issues civil investigative demands (CIDs), a type of administrative subpoena that compels businesses and individuals to produce evidence such as documents and testimony. Many observers criticize the Bureau’s CIDs for being poorly justified, overbroad, vague, and costly. Modern Supreme Court precedents leave CID recipients with few constitutional protections. Courts defer to the Bureau in legal challenges to CIDs, rendering constitutional and statutory limits on the Bureau’s powers toothless. Legislators are considering reform proposals to bring accountability to the Bureau’s CID practice. The Civil Investigative Demand Reform Act of 2025 would curb overbroad CIDs by requiring them to make specific reference to particular facts, empowering recipients to petition for relief from burdensome or unnecessary demands, and allowing petitioners to appeal directly to federal court upon the denial of a petition. Policymakers should consider additional reforms. For example, the Bureau could be required to prove that CID compliance costs are proportional to the seriousness of the violation. Reforms should ensure that petitions are decided not by the Bureau’s director but by neutral arbiters such as administrative law judges housed outside the agency. The Bureau’s CID overreach can destroy lawful enterprises without corresponding benefits to consumers. Procedural reforms to the CID process are an important step. But ultimately, protection of firms’ and individuals’ liberty will require legislators to take a skeptical view of inessential substantive rules more broadly.
Topic:: Government, Reform, and Consumer Protection
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

487. Let 1,000 Flowers Bloom: Best Practices for Advancing Educational Freedom

Author:: Colleen Hroncich
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The growth of educational freedom in America has been dramatic, with more than 70 programs now operating in over 30 states. While this is welcome news for many families in need of school choice, the rapid expansion has also revealed weaknesses with program design, particularly in funding stability, administrative structure, expenditure approval processes, and family access. This paper identifies essential components for successful educational freedom programs, each of which will be explained in more detail: Universal eligibility. Any student can apply. Universal funding. Funding sufficient to cover all students who apply. Rollover. Unspent funds can be used for eligible expenses in future years. Competitive administration. Allow for multiple program managers rather than a monopoly. Streamlined expenditure approval. Offer multiple ways to pay and utilize risk-based auditing instead of prepurchase approval for most purchases. The paper also traces how we arrived at today’s choice landscape and highlights lessons for policymakers seeking to maximize opportunity while avoiding new monopolies. To sustain momentum, states must move beyond piecemeal design toward comprehensive frameworks. Only then can educational freedom deliver on its promises.
Topic:: Education, Public Policy, Freedom, and Local Government
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

488. Improving Trump Accounts

Author:: Adam N. Michel
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Trump Accounts are new early-life investment accounts that include a $1,000 government-funded seed investment for Americans born between 2025 and 2028. The accounts also allow additional contributions from families, employers, and charitable organizations. Trump Accounts are the latest addition to a tax code that already includes more than a dozen similar qualified investment accounts, each with its own eligibility rules, contribution limits, and withdrawal restrictions. This policy analysis finds that Trump Accounts function primarily as a government welfare program rather than a tax-neutral investment vehicle. For most families, Trump Accounts are less tax-advantaged than existing alternatives and add considerable complexity to an already fragmented system, limiting participation. The analysis concludes by proposing reforms that build on the best features of Trump Accounts by adopting a Universal Savings Account structure and consolidating the remaining system into simpler, more flexible options that expand access and reduce complexity.
Topic:: Reform, Tax Systems, Investment, Welfare, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

489. Federal Budget Reform Opportunities in Higher Education for 2026

Author:: Andrew Gillen
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Over the decades, federal programs have accumulated in higher education. Some of these programs have been rendered obsolete or redundant by subsequent developments, while others have failed to achieve their intended purpose. As a result, there are several federal policy reforms that would improve higher education policy and save taxpayers money. In this report I identify policies that would save more than $265 billion over the next 10 years, including eliminating subsidized loans, eliminating or capping Public Service Loan Forgiveness, modifying the Repayment Assistance Plan, phasing out campus-based aid, repealing ineffective tax expenditures, and benchmarking research overhead rates.
Topic:: Reform, Budget, Higher Education, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

490. Eradication of Sparrows and the Great Famine in China

Author:: Eyal G. Frank, Shaoda Wang, Qinyun Wang, Xuebin Wang, and Yang You
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Scientists, politicians, and popular media frequently argue that the continued degradation of ecosystems will negatively affect human well-being. Warnings regarding the devastating consequences of ecosystem collapses have emphasized the complex interactions between natural systems, particularly how agriculture connects with surrounding ecosystems. While the potentially catastrophic costs of these events have long been theorized, empirical evidence remains scarce. The rarity of ecosystem collapses, the difficulty of clearly tracing their triggers, and the lack of detailed data pose significant barriers to rigorous empirical investigations.
Topic:: Agriculture, History, Famine, and Ecosystem
Political Geography:: China and Asia

491. The Limited Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Author:: Raymond Fisman, Giovanna Marcolongo, and Meng Wu
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Economic sanctions aim to exert pressure on a target nation or region to induce policy reforms or regime change. The effectiveness of sanctions depends on whether they inflict economic pain on the target (especially the targeted elite). This, in turn, depends on several factors. For trade sanctions, these factors include how readily a sanctioned nation can obtain substitutes for needed imports, the degree to which countries imposing sanctions rely on trade with a sanctioned partner, and the extent to which either side can rely on intermediary nations outside the sanctioning blockade to evade trade restrictions.
Topic:: Economics, Sanctions, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

492. Minimum Wages and Racial Disparities

Author:: David Neumark and Jyotsana Kala
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: There has been substantial research on the employment effects of minimum wages. Much of this research shows that minimum wages reduce employment, with the largest effects observed in the lowest-skilled groups, usually defined in terms of age or education. This is likely because a larger share of lower-skilled workers earn the minimum wage; when the minimum wage increases, these workers are more likely to experience reduced hiring, fewer hours, and job losses. However, there has been little research on how minimum wages affect employment and other labor market outcomes for lower-skilled racial minority workers, even though these groups tend to earn lower wages and hence are more likely to be affected by the minimum wage.
Topic:: Race, Labor Market, Minimum Wage, and Earnings
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

493. Tariffs as Fiscal Policy

Author:: Kimberly A. Clausing and Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The election of Donald Trump to a second term in November 2024 indicated that tariffs would play a much larger role in US economic policy. The use of tariffs—taxes on imports— expanded significantly during Trump’s first term, with tariff revenue nearly doubling relative to the value of imports. But his 2024 campaign promised a far larger role for tariffs, and he has delivered on that promise. In early 2025, the average tariff rate soared from less than 3 percent at the end of the Biden administration to over 20 percent. As of September 4, 2025, it stood at about 17.5 percent, the highest level since 1935. While recent analysis has shown that exemptions and other factors may lower the average tariff rate below this level, this number may understate the negative economic effects of the tariffs because they vary dramatically across trade partners and goods. In any case, the future of tariffs remains unclear: Congress has yet to legislate on tariffs, and legal challenges against many of them are underway. Nonetheless, we expect these issues to be relevant to policy discussions for some time.
Topic:: Tariffs, Fiscal Policy, Donald Trump, and Trade Deficit
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

494. The Effects of the One Laptop per Child Program in Peru

Author:: Santiago Cueto, Diether W. Beuermann, Julian Cristia, Ofer Malamud, and Francisco Pardo
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Developing countries have invested heavily in improving educational outcomes by expanding access to technology in schools. For example, between 2006 and 2012, 20 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean distributed nearly 10 million laptops to public school students. One highly publicized initiative was the One Laptop per Child (OLPC) program, which provided personal laptops to students in 40 countries. These types of programs have garnered renewed interest since the COVID-19 pandemic, which started the trend of remote schooling. But experiments have generally not found any short-term effects of these programs on educational outcomes. A large-scale experimental evaluation of the OLPC program in Peru found no effects on academic performance or primary school enrollment 15 months into the program.
Topic:: Development, Education, Science and Technology, and Remote Learning
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

495. Laboratories of Autocracy: Centralized Versus Decentralized Policymaking in China

Author:: Kaicheng Luo, Shaoda Wang, and David Y. Yang
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Afundamental question in governance concerns the merits of centralized versus decentralized policymaking. While top-down, centralized policymaking may streamline adoption, enhance efficiency, and improve coordination between regions, it often sacrifices the local suitability of bottom-up, decentralized policy initiatives. This tension is especially relevant when governing large nations with many regional differences. However, measuring centralization in policymaking is difficult because it requires tracing the origin and spread of all policies across layers of government hierarchy; as a result, most studies of centralization and decentralization focus on only one policy. Assessing centralization’s impact on policy outcomes is even more demanding because it involves linking policies to both local conditions and intended outcomes.
Topic:: Governance, Economic Development, Decentralization, Centralization, and Autocracy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

496. A Look Back and Ahead at the Federal Budget

Author:: Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: After running deficits from 1970 to 1997, the US government ran a budget surplus in fiscal year 2000 for the third year in a row, reaching a post–World War II high of 2.3 percent of annual gross domestic product (GDP). The Congressional Budget Office projected that surpluses would increase over time, totaling $5.6 trillion over the next 10 years, and that all public debt would be paid off by 2006. This led to a problem for policymakers and academics: How would monetary policy be conducted, and where would investors find safe assets if no US public debt were available? Then–Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan cited the need to maintain public debt in his pivotal argument in favor of tax cuts. Shortly thereafter, Congress enacted major tax-cut legislation, signed by President George W. Bush.
Topic:: Government, Budget, GDP, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

497. Will Prohibiting Vapes Work? Evidence from a Survey in Türkiye

Author:: Asena Caner, Belgi Turan, Berna Tari Kasnakoğlu, Yenal Can Yiğit, Donald S. Kenkel, and Alan D. Mathios
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Smoking cigarettes poses substantial health risks. Despite global efforts to eliminate smoking, it remains troublingly prevalent; 1.3 billion tobacco users worldwide are at risk of tobacco-related diseases and death. In Türkiye (Turkey), almost 30 percent of adults are smokers, and this rate has largely remained steady. Reported smoking rates in the country were 27.4 percent in 2008, 23.8 percent in 2012, 29.6 percent in 2016, and 31.2 percent in 2022. According to Turkish government statistics, in 2022, 28.3 percent of adults were daily smokers, and 3.8 percent were occasional smokers. These trends underscore the ongoing need for effective strategies to curb smoking.
Topic:: Economics, Tax Systems, Tobacco, Public Health, Vaping, and Cigarettes
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

498. Bank Competition and Entrepreneurial Gaps: Evidence from Bank Deregulation

Author:: Xiang Li
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Entrepreneurship plays a vital role in stimulating economic growth by promoting job creation and innovation. However, pronounced racial and gender gaps persist in entrepreneurial ventures. Addressing these gaps can boost economic growth and job creation while also reducing inequality. Therefore, understanding the barriers that impede business formation among minorities and women is crucial. My research examines how bank competition alleviates financial obstacles that disproportionately prevent women and racial minorities from becoming entrepreneurs. My findings reveal that the deregulation of interstate banking in the United States between 1994 and 2021 narrowed gender and racial disparities in entrepreneurship by expanding and improving banking services, reducing discrimination in the financial market, and narrowing gaps in firm performance.
Topic:: Entrepreneurship, Banking, Racism, and Deregulation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

499. Learning About Police Bias: Prosecutors and Police Before and After Body-Worn Cameras

Author:: Emma Harrington and Hannah Shaffer
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Each year, police arrest around seven million Americans, often after discretionary stops, and criminal courts sentence more than half a million to prison. Prosecutors wield considerable discretion in determining which arrests lead to imprisonment, typically basing their decisions on information provided by the police, especially the police report’s characterization of the crime. However, police reports may misrepresent reality and reflect racial bias. Prosecutors thus face a difficult question: To what extent do police reports reflect truth versus bias?
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Police, Racism, Bias, Incarceration, and Bodycams
Political Geography:: North America, North Carolina, and United States of America

500. Should States Reduce Teacher Licensing Requirements?

Author:: Christa Deneault and Evan Riehl
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: All US states require training for teacher certification, making teaching the largest licensed occupation in the country. Because education is mandatory and provided by the government for free, teachers’ wages may not fully respond to supply pressures, and demand remains high regardless of quality. These factors can lead to teacher shortages, forcing some schools to hire unlicensed teachers to fill vacancies. Thus, training requirements may reduce the supply of certified teachers and increase schools’ reliance on teachers with little or no training, potentially undermining licensing laws even if training is effective.
Topic:: Education, Licensing, Teachers, and Local Government
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS