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152. Effective Sustainable Development
- Author:
- Barry Buzan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- How can we make the concept of sustainable development more effective? Finding a pathway towards effective sustainable development (ESD) becomes more urgent as global warming specifically, and the Anthropocene crisis generally, intensify. It helps to take a long view of development and its role in global society (the anthroposphere) before focusing on what characteristics ESD needs to have.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Anthropocene, and Sustainable Development
- Political Geography:
- Asia
153. Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh - democracy restored by revolution
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- The first democratic elections held in Bangladesh for 18 years, on 12 February this year, were won by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Tariq Zia Rahman. This marks the end of the transition period following the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024 and the rebirth of democracy. The biggest challenges for the new government will be to strengthen the rule of law, accelerate economic growth and improve relations with India. The EU, which supported the transition process, should become more involved in assisting the democratic government and economic cooperation.
- Topic:
- Elections, European Union, Democracy, Economic Growth, Rule of Law, Political Parties, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
154. Avoiding a Long War - Objectives and Conditions for the US Attack on Iran
- Author:
- Mateusz Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- The American operation in Iran may be prolonged, lasting several months instead of the planned few weeks. The low public support of Americans for intervention and the economic effects of rising oil prices are unlikely to change the US administration’s stance. Difficulties in completely eliminating the threats posed by Iran may prompt Donald Trump to increase military involvement, including the use of special forces or the launch of a ground invasion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Military Intervention, Armed Conflict, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
155. Conclusion of Negotiations on the EU-India Trade Agreement
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel and Damian Wnukowski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- The most important outcome of the 16th EU–India summit, which took place on January 27 in New Delhi, was the announcement of an agreement on a trade deal. When it comes into force, it will create one of the largest free trade areas in the world and open up a huge Indian market for goods and services from the EU. At a time of growing protectionism in international trade and power-based politics, strengthening economic ties between the EU and India takes on a strategic dimension.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, Free Trade, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Asia, and India
156. The Impact of Purges in the Chinese Army on Its Effectiveness
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- Xi Jinping, as the Party’s secretary general, continues to strengthen his personal oversight of the Chinese armed forces, as evidenced by disciplinary actions against Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Combined with the purges that began in 2022, the growing atmosphere of uncertainty, and the increasing pressure to demonstrate loyalty to Xi, this raises the risk that the authorities will misjudge the condition of their armed forces. This may increase the likelihood of escalation, for example, towards Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Reform, Xi Jinping, Escalation, Loyalty, and Purge
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
157. Diplomacy in the Foreground. The New EU Migration Policy Framework
- Author:
- Jolanta Szymańska
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- The migration, asylum and visa strategies, presented at the end of January this year by the European Commission, set the framework for EU migration policy for the coming years. According to both documents' assumptions, migration diplomacy is intended to support the Union's security and global competitiveness priorities. The planned reforms aim to eliminate abuses of the asylum and visa system and to attract skilled workers and investment to the EU. The implementation of the strategy will be challenged by both instability in Europe's neighbourhood and the persistent reluctance of member states to accept migrants.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, European Union, Asylum, Visa, and Migration Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
158. The war in Iran: a test of the Gulf states' economic resilience
- Author:
- Julia Sochacka
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- Forecasts of the long-term economic consequences of the war in Iran for the Gulf states are unequivocally negative. The scale of the losses depends on whether the strategies for building economic resilience implemented by these countries can withstand the shock caused by regional destabilisation. Faced with Iran taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, the EU’s top priority in the short term will be to ensure energy security, and in the long term to diversify its economic partnerships.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, European Union, Resilience, Energy, and Regional Stability
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
159. Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Heightens Tensions in the Horn of Africa
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state on 26 December last year triggered a series of dangerous processes in the Horn of Africa. These could lead to an escalation of armed conflicts within Somaliland’s declared borders and in its immediate vicinity. The EU should be guided in this matter by the criteria of legality and stability in the wider Horn of Africa.
- Topic:
- European Union, Borders, Armed Conflict, and Recognition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Somaliland
160. Global development policy and the New World Disorder: the Trump Administration's delivery of a high-voltage shockwave to multilateral norms, institutional commitments and long-standing principles
- Author:
- Stephan Klingebiel and Andy Sumner
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Global development policy is a particularly revealing field in which the Trump administration combines crude transactionalism with a high level of ideological commitment, namely an authoritarian libertarianism oriented toward elite interests. This is coupled with, at times, a chaotic absence of tactical or strategic coherence. With Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, a significant phase in international affairs, including global development policy, began. This policy brief traces the evolution of the US approach to development cooperation and exposes how Trump's approach represents an overtly aggressive assault, delivering a high voltage shockwave to global sustainable development policy, undermining multilateral norms, institutional commitments and long-standing principles of international solidarity. The United States (US) has played a decisive role in the conception and evolution of global development policy since the mid-20th century. From the establishment of the post-Second World War order onward, the US shaped the normative, political and organizational foundations of development cooperation, often setting agendas, defining standards, and providing leadership and personnel for key multilateral institutions. Early reconstruction efforts such as the Marshall Plan and the establishment of the World Bank embedded development within a broader framework of power politics, positioning aid as both a tool of reconstruction and geopolitical influence. Since January 2025, US development cooperation has undergone a dramatic rupture. The administration rapidly withdrew from multilateral institutions, cut budgets, and de facto dissolved USAID, transferring residual functions to the State Department. This shift was accompanied by conspiracy narratives and an explicit rejection of multilateral norms, marking a sharp departure from previous Republican and Democratic approaches alike. The brief conceptualises this shift as the emergence of a “New Washington Dissensus”: a model of transactional, nationalist development cooperation that treats aid as an instrument of power rather than a global public good. Under this paradigm, development engagement is ideologically conditional, hostile to climate and equity agendas, oriented toward migration control, and explicitly transactional. The Trump administration's National Security Strategy (December 2025) is consistent with this in the sense that it frames an “America First” approach that narrows US priorities to “core, vital national interests” and places strong emphasis on Western Hemisphere pre-eminence via a stated “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. For global development, foreign assistance and development finance are thus instruments of strategic competition and commercial diplomacy. US agencies are mobilized to back US commercial positioning. The consequences are dramatic and systemic. The US retreat has destabilized the global development architecture and intensified geopolitical fragmentation. For many countries in the Global South, this represents a watershed moment, creating both new room for maneuver and new dependencies as states pursue multi-alignment strategies amid intensifying great-power rivalry. At the same time, humanitarian impacts are severe. Overall, the brief concludes that development policy has entered a new phase, which is narrower, more instrumental and overtly geopolitical,and is reshaping not only US engagement but the future of global development policy itself.
- Topic:
- Development, Multilateralism, Institutions, Norms, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
161. Making global benefits pay: the World Bank reform to support global public goods
- Author:
- Jakob Schwab
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Global public goods (GPGs) are goods that are produced locally but have global effects. GPGs are essential for securing global development. The climate and biodiversity crises, pandemics, as well as fragility, conflict and violence are threatening livelihoods and well-being around the world, and addressing them would have enormous positive economic and social effects. However, the cross-border externalities involved are not being fully taken into account by countries, and hence these GPGs are still underprovided compared with what would be globally optimal. One year ago, the World Bank launched the Framework for Financial Incentives (FFI) to strengthen the support of GPGs in its operations. This novel instrument encourages countries to implement investment projects and policies that have positive spillovers to other countries by offering targeted financial incentives. As a core element of the World Bank's Evolution reform, the FFI reflects the recognition that relatively modest investments in client countries can generate substantial global benefits – for other developing and emerging economies as well as for the Bank's shareholder countries. Its challenges lie in incorporating the non-financial aspects of GPGs and the multi-faceted motivations to provide them in bankable operations. This policy brief discusses the relevance of GPGs for development and presents the World Bank's approach to supporting their provision in client countries through the FFI. The key takeaways are: • GPGs are not all those that are commonly shared or agreed upon as goals but are defined by the specific problem structure that the involved cross-border externalities entail. • Investment in GPGs can generate substantial benefits – not only for developing and emerging economies, but also for high-income countries that make up the World Bank's largest shareholders. Consequently, both out of enlightened self-interest and as a cost-effective way to advance global sustainable development at a time when international development budgets are undergoing significant reductions, shareholder countries should increase their contributions to the FFI. This applies in particular to those provided to the Livable Planet Fund, which provides the essential grant financing for countries' GPG-related projects. • To retain and strengthen confidence among stakeholders, the FFI must deploy its resources efficiently. This implies offering grants only when projects' overall domestic benefits are insufficient to motivate countries to provide GPGs on their own, and extending loans instead when client countries have sufficient self-interest to ensure repayment. The assessment of costs and benefits is complex, but it should improve with experience and become increasingly standardized. To signal its effectiveness, the FFI should pursue full transparency in its allocation decisions and undertake systematic impact assessments.
- Topic:
- Development, World Bank, Reform, and Public Goods
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
162. Beyond the wage channel: climate-smart public works programs and household resilience in Malawi
- Author:
- Tekalign Gutu Sakketa, Francesco Burchi, Sophia Schubert, and Donald Makoka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- One of the main arguments for implementing public works programs (PWPs) instead of other social protection schemes such as cash transfers is that the assets created through these programs themselves can generate medium- to long-term benefits. This is particularly important as the costs for supervision and the construction materials can account for up to 70 per cent of program budgets. Despite this, there is scarce empirical evidence on PWPs' effects through the “asset channel”: indeed; most studies have focused solely on the traditional “wage channel”. To bridge this gap, this paper examines whether and how assets created under Malawi's Climate-Smart Enhanced Public Works Program (CS-EPWP) – a program recently implemented by the government of Malawi and funded by the World Bank – strengthen the resilience of households to climate shocks such as droughts and floods. The paper relies on case study analysis using primary qualitative data based on focus group discussions and key informant interviews with different stakeholders at the national, district and community levels. Interviews were conducted during fieldwork in September 2024 in two southern districts of Malawi highly affected by climate change. The analysis is complemented by site visits and quantitative survey data on asset quality. By combining these methods, we find that the CS-EPWP generates durable, community-maintained assets, which in turn enhance households' capacity to cope with and adapt to climate shocks. In particular, land-based assets provide multiple benefits for both households and communities, while forest-based interventions are expected to generate similar long-term gains, although further research is needed to confirm their (long-term) impacts. To maximize the impact of climate-smart public works programs, policymakers and donors should align asset creation with climate objectives and adopt participatory approaches to ensure their relevance, maintenance and long-term sustainability.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Resilience, and Public Works
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Malawi
163. What do the 2015 SDG negotiations teach us for a beyond-2030 framework?
- Author:
- Paula von Haaren and Axel Berger
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development – the global framework establishing 17 universal and interconnected goals to guide sustainable development efforts – was adopted in 2015 following a uniquely participative and ambitious process. A decade on, it is increasingly evident that most of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are unlikely to be achieved by 2030 as originally envisioned. Discussions about a follow-up framework beyond 2030 are gaining momentum ahead of the SDG Summit in September 2027. This paper evaluates the process design, inclusiveness, negotiating strategies, fora and fault lines in 2015 and discusses to what extent the lessons learned can be applied to negotiations for a potential follow-up framework. We find that several process design elements and negotiation strategies, as well as actor composition, fostered trust and ownership, reduced polarization and enabled agreements on ambitious targets. In particular, the process benefited from the inclusion of diverse, non-hierarchical actor communities, a long, science-based stocktaking phase, the breaking up of traditional negotiating blocks, transparency, and emphasis on common interests. We also identify several recurring fault lines that are overwhelmingly still relevant today. Apart from the above best practices of the process leading to the adoption of the SDGs in 2015, we identify several shortcomings that should be addressed in the beyond-2030 negotiations: inefficiencies due to competing tracks for the development of the goals; top-down agenda-setting processes leading to less ambitious outcomes; barriers to participation of and accountability towards some marginalized and informal actors; and the watering down of goals and indicators – including non-tangible targets and unresolved inconsistencies and trade-offs within the agenda. Finally, the paper argues that the beyond-2030 negotiations will take place in a context that is similar to the process that led to the SDGs but is nevertheless in many ways more challenging than in 2015, amidst intensifying crises, political shifts and loss of trust.
- Topic:
- Development and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
164. Geopolitics and development in Central Asia: exploring opportunities for middle powers
- Author:
- Hyeyoung Woo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Central Asia has emerged as a key region where the convergence of geopolitics and development cooperation is most visible. Major powers are redefining their approaches: Japan combines official development assistance (ODA) with commercial partnerships to advance connectivity and reform; the EU is emphasizing a sustainable infrastructure and governance-oriented approach; the US is expected to catalyze private investment rather than direct aid; China deepens its regional presence through the Belt and Road Initiative; while Russia leverages historical and security ties to maintain influence. Meanwhile, middle powers – countries that do not wield vast influence like major powers but possess substantial capacity to shape international events – are exploring new opportunities for engagement. Türkiye positions itself as a bridge between advanced economies and the Global South, emphasizing connectivity and energy cooperation through the Middle Corridor and the Organization of Turkic States. South Korea's 2025 ODA Strategy for Central Asia identifies the region as a strategic partner for shared growth, integrating pragmatic diplomacy with value-based cooperation. By leveraging their soft power and policy experience, these middle powers offer a distinctive model for development partnership. Central Asian governments are responding to a changing international environment by diversifying partnerships through regional integration and more strategic engagement with development partners.
- Topic:
- Development, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Economic Growth, Strategic Partnerships, Middle Powers, and Private Investment
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia
165. The decline of French agriculture in Europe
- Author:
- Bernard Bourget
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- The farmers' protests of the winter 2025-2026 are an amplified replica of those of two years ago, mainly in France, due in particular to competition between, on the one hand, the FNSEA[1] (Fédération nationale des syndicats d’exploitants agricoles) and the Young Farmers, and on the other hand, the very aggressive Coordination Rurale and the Confédération Paysanne. These protests focused on two issues: - The management of the contagious nodular dermatitis (CND) crisis, more specifically the opposition to the slaughter of all infected herds, even though this radical method has proven effective in Savoie and Haute-Savoie, where it has eradicated the disease. - The free trade agreement between the European Union and the four MERCOSUR countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay), which is currently awaiting approval. It is also the expression of a deep unease among French farmers, who have faced a series of difficulties in recent years that have not been experienced with the same intensity by their counterparts in other Member States. The causes of these difficulties therefore need to be analyzed. In Jean-Luc Demarty’s opinion[2], the main cause is the loss of competitiveness of French agriculture on the European market, which is reflected in an increase in agricultural income in France of only 17% between 2010 and 2024, well below the European average (77%) and that of Spain (79%), Poland (86%) or Italy (170%). The reasons why the agri-food trade balance of France has collapsed must also be examined. It was only positive of 200 Million euros in 2025. In recent years, French agriculture has had to grapple with health, climate and economic crises. The health crises have affected cattle (epizootic haemorrhagic disease and contagious nodular dermatosis), sheep (bluetongue) and poultry farms (avian influenza), while pig farms are still threatened by African swine fever. Climate change is having a severe impact on French agriculture, with successive droughts, floods and spring frosts. While health and climate crises also affect agriculture in other Member States, it is in the area of foreign trade that French agriculture is clearly hardest hit, particularly by moves by China and the United States to target wines and spirits, the leading export item for the French agri-food industry. The cereal sector, which is the second largest agri-food export item, is suffering from competition from the Black Sea countries and, above all, from Russia's offensive for wheat on African markets. The Algerian market was thus lost in 2025 in the context of that country's dispute with France, while the price of wheat is currently below $200 per tonne, (below the average production cost for French farmers), and the European Commission wants to tax imports of nitrogen fertilisers from Russia and Belarus as part of the carbon border adjustment mechanism.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, European Union, Protests, Free Trade, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
166. Hybrid threats: from geopolitics to internal security
- Author:
- Jean Mafart
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- Although the concept of hybrid threats is now widely accepted despite its rather vague nature, there remains a blind spot in European discussions and strategic thinking: the phenomenon is still rarely addressed from the perspective of internal security policy. It has long been recognised that hybrid threats – whether cyberattacks, arson, disinformation, interference in electoral processes or the exploitation of migration flows – can strike within our borders. The European Union acknowledged this: the Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) committees regularly address the issue and the Commission gives it considerable attention in its internal security strategy of April 2025. In fact, it is mainly on the basis of hybrid threats that the document justifies the proposal to double the staff of Europol. However, the emergence of these threats in the internal security policies of the EU and its Member States raises important questions, both in terms of principles and operations, most of which remain unanswered. It is instructive to browse through the wealth of analytical and policy papers available on hybrid threats: the geopolitical dimension of the phenomenon still predominates, and while authors sometimes address the resilience of European states and societies, there is almost nothing to be found on how to respond to these threats in the context of internal security policy or on the necessary adaptation of the instruments of this policy. In other words, it is as if the concept of hybrid threats, which originally concerned defence and foreign policy circles, had forcefully found its way into European internal security policy and had not yet been fully assimilated into the internal sphere. If we add to this the fact that European internal security policy itself remains little known despite the considerable proportions it has taken on in recent decades, the current state of strategic thinking is not conducive to the consolidation of a strategy to deal with hybrid threats in their internal dimension. However, a strategy of this kind would be very useful, following the example of what has long existed within NATO and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) for the external dimension: does the issue of hybrid threats, now referred to in every context but without a coherent approach, risk leading European internal security policy astray, diverting it from its primary purpose ? and how can the competences of the Union, its Member States and other actors be harmoniously combined when hybrid threats blur the line between internal and external security, or even between national security – which is in principle the remit of the Member States – and the competences of the Union?
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, European Union, Geopolitics, and Hybrid Threats
- Political Geography:
- Europe
167. The European strategic approach to technological security: the challenges posed by China
- Author:
- Earl Wang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- [1] Not only the US, but the EU and its Member States are also facing Chinese restrictions on foreign critical tech infrastructure. European telecom companies such as Nokia and Ericsson witness a drop by two-thirds in their market shares in China as compared to 2020. On the other way around, Chinese ‘high-risk suppliers’ of telecom networks such as Huawei and ZTE only encountered a 5-10% decline in Europe since EU institution and countries adopted the 5G cybersecurity toolbox in 2020. When it comes to European security in the cyber realm, we can also observe direct Chinese threats. Recent public cases of cyberattacks against France and the Czech Republic reminded us – again – of cybersecurity challenges from China which was also underlined by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Among other topics, critical technologies, cyber and digital infrastructure top the EU’s list of tech security preoccupation with regard to China. This paper provides an analysis of the strategic formulation of EU institutions and European countries on tech security vis-à-vis China from 2013 to 2022. Cases of countries covered in the paper include France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Czech Republic, and the United Kingdom. The paper is structured as follows. The first part studies the gradual awareness of security implications of Chinese investment in European critical technologies following China’s Made In China 2025 policy. In the second part, the paper examines the security threats posed by Chinese companies’ engagement in European digital infrastructure and the coordinated approach of the EU to secure 5G networks. The third part introduces the EU framework for investment screening as a new tool to address security concerns deriving from foreign investment in and acquisition of critical technologies and digital infrastructure. In the fourth part, the paper investigates European cybersecurity agencies and how cybersecurity has become a fast-growing concern of the EU and European countries in its relations with China. This paper showcases that the European Union and its Member States have incorporated the increasing link between security and technology in their strategic formulation of policy on China. More importantly, the effectiveness of the EU’s strategy in tech security highly relies on the coordination and cooperation among Member States and between the EU and national levels.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, European Union, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- China and Europe
168. From a set of values to a normative framework: the European Union, world champion of women's rights
- Author:
- Helen Levy and Juliette Bachschmidt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- In 2026, Europe is set to become an even stronger bastion for women's rights. A pioneer on the world stage, the European Union is translating its values into a set of guarantees to ensure the best possible situation for women. Behind certain regulations lies a political project with a new ambition: to transform the ethical values that form the very foundations of the European project into a tangible reality. In this area, European standards, which are always the result of discussions and compromises between the co-legislators – the Parliament and the Council – are proving to be a driving force for progress where decades of recommendations and good intentions have failed. The world order is being disrupted by Donald Trump's return to the White House and the rise to power of leaders who are far from committed to the cause of women and who are challenging the progress made over the last century in terms of gender equality. Against this backdrop, the European Union is seeking to uphold its core values by charting a new course based on its normative power. And so, in 2026, gender equality in Europe is set to take on a new dimension, no longer just an ideal to which everyone should aspire, but a legal obligation backed by performance requirements and, failing that, sanctions. Although imperfect, the European Union remains a bastion for women's rights. As we approach the celebration of Women's Rights Day on 8 March, the European Union can take pride in some of the steps forward it has made on behalf of women, particularly in the areas of economic empowerment, political participation and leadership, health and well-being, education and skills development.
- Topic:
- European Union, Women, Ethics, and Gender Equality
- Political Geography:
- Europe
169. EU-India Renewed Strategic Partnership and Its Significance in the Shifting Global Landscape
- Author:
- Karine de Vergeron
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- The current mandate of President Trump is radically altering the close and longstanding ties that had been forged between India and the United States over the past years as America is now moving towards a more isolationist policy. It is striking to note that the US National Defence Strategy, released last January, puts the protection of the U.S. homeland and its Western Hemisphere before confronting adversaries such as Beijing or Moscow. India is not even mentioned. This new American geostrategic priority represents a major change from former US Democrat and Republican administrations, including President Donald Trump’s first term, which had made the deterrence of China and thus, close cooperation with India, a core component of U.S. efforts. In this context of geopolitical volatility and fragmentation, the new rapprochement between India and the EU is crucially deemed to strengthen stability within the international system.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe and India
170. Hungary as a Trailblazer: the Rise of Illiberal Democracy and its Discontents
- Author:
- Péter Magyar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- In the fast-changing political landscape of Europe, Hungary has set a controversial example of a new style of governance[1]. Viktor Orbán’s Hungary is often seen as the pioneer of illiberal democracy, rejecting liberal democratic norms in favour of centralizing power, manipulating narratives, and eroding the checks and balances of the state. Orbán’s rise and methods have had a profound impact on the political trajectories of other European nations, influencing populist leaders from Poland to Serbia, but also from France to the Netherlands. Yet, Hungary’s transformation and its broader implications for the future of European politics remain largely misunderstood by many in the West.
- Topic:
- Governance, Populism, Illiberal Democracy, Viktor Orbán, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Hungary
171. Skilled immigration and the competitiveness of the European Union: attractiveness and policy options
- Author:
- Olena Oliinyk
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- Migration today remains one of the most complex and politically sensitive issues on the European agenda. It encompasses a wide range of processes: from irregular migrants and forced displacement caused by wars and climate crises to the mobility of students, entrepreneurs, and skilled professionals. This multidimensional nature explains why regulating migration flows within the European Union remains an exceptionally complex task that requires balancing humanitarian obligations, the controls of external borders and migratory flows, as well as labour market needs.
- Topic:
- Immigration, European Union, Labor Market, Migration Policy, and Skilled Migration
- Political Geography:
- Europe
172. Labor Market Imbalances and Immigration Policies
- Author:
- Young-ook Jang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Korea now faces rapid demographic decline due to ultra‑low fertility and accelerated aging. According to Statistics Korea, the population peaked at 51.75 million in 2024 and is projected to fall below 40 million by 2065. This demographic contraction is expected to intensify labor market imbalances. Several studies project widening labor shortages over the next 5–10 years. The Korea Employment Information Service (2025) suggests that the labor force will decline from 2030 and approximately 820,000 more workers will be needed to fill the labor demand by 2033. The Korea Labor Institute (2024, 2025) also estimated that a shortage of 2.98 million workers (2024–2028) will expand to 6.18 million (2025–2033). The degree of labor shortages varies by sectors and regions. ICT services, healthcare and welfare, logistics, hospitality, and agriculture are the sectors that are exposed to the highest risk of labor shortages. Some provinces are already experiencing difficulties in hiring qualified workers due to declining population. Apart from the demographic change, labor market imbalance is intensified by structural changes due to geopolitical and technological factors. Geopolitical factors—including strategic competition between the United States and China, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine war—have heightened global supply chain instability, prompting major economies to strengthen domestic and regional competitiveness in key advanced industries such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductors, and secondary batteries. This, combined with the decline in the economically active population across advanced economies, has exacerbated labor shortages in strategic high-tech sectors. In response, major countries are actively implementing policies to attract highly skilled foreign talent, which puts pressure on the supply of talent in Korea. Labor shortages increase production costs, reduce corporate profitability, heighten inflationary pressures, and undermine potential economic growth. Attracting more foreign labor in both skilled and unskilled occupations is increasingly being considered as a potential response to labor market imbalances, particularly labor shortages. However, several challenges remain to be addressed. These include intensifying competition among advanced economies to attract talent, conflict between free-market principles and existing (often rigid) visa regimes, and the wide-ranging economic, social, cultural, and political consequences of immigration. Resolving labor market imbalances is essential to sustaining long-term growth potential. Although foreign workers cannot fully offset aggregate labor shortages, they may be able to alleviate supply constraints in specific industries and skill categories. Promotion of labor mobility can be a plausible option as long as it is accompanied by policy measures to minimize associated side effects. Jang et al. (2025) conducted two empirical analyses to estimate the effect of immigration on the labor market imbalances. First, the study examines the impact of the free labor movement in the EU on labor market imbalances. The EU is an early adopter of immigration and a supranational entity operating one of the most advanced and proactive immigration regimes. In particular, examining the effects of the EU’s flexible and inclusive immigration policies can provide meaningful policy implications for Korea. Second, the report analyzes Korea’s Employment Permit System (EPS) to assess the extent to which domestic policy measures have contributed to alleviating labor shortages. Noting the expansion of the EPS—a low-skilled labor inflow mechanism—during the post–COVID-19 recovery phase, the study quantitatively evaluates how effectively this policy has mitigated labor shortages across regions. This brief will summarize the key methods and results of those analyses and derive policy implications from them.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Immigration, Economy, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
173. Outward FDI and Hollowing-out: Towards the Strategic Reallocation of Korean Industries
- Author:
- Nam Seok Kim
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Following a prolonged period of negotiations under the “reciprocal tariff” regime, Korea, similar to other major exporters like the European Union and Japan, secured reduced tariff rates conditional upon committing to large-scale local investments in the United States. The U.S. administration has consistently placed the reconstruction of American manufacturing and domestic job creation at the top of its policy agenda. This commitment is so steadfast that Washington recently hinted at the possibility of re-imposing higher tariffs, citing Korea’s lukewarm implementation of the agreed-upon investment pledges. Crucially, this surge in investment is not merely a political concession but reflects a fundamental restructuring of global value chains. As geopolitical uncertainties intensify, Korean firms are pivoting from a traditional strategy of cost minimization to one of risk minimization. By establishing production bases directly within the United States, these companies aim to insulate themselves from future trade barriers and secure stable access to their most critical market, effectively decoupling their supply chains from geopolitical flashpoints. The scale of capital Korea has pledged to invest locally in the U.S. is staggering, potentially large enough to induce fundamental shifts in the valuation of the Korean won. The bilateral agreement encompasses a monumental package: USD 200 billion in direct cash investments and USD 150 billion in shipbuilding cooperation. These plans are rapidly materializing, evidenced by the U.S. government’s recent release of “America’s Maritime Action Plan,” which explicitly designates Korea as a key partner in rebuilding U.S. naval and commercial maritime capabilities. Beyond the maritime sector, this investment wave spans across Korea’s core strategic industries, including semiconductors, electric vehicle batteries, and advanced electronics. Major Korean conglomerates are rapidly breaking ground on large-scale manufacturing facilities across key U.S. states. This broad-based migration of manufacturing capacity signifies a deep integration of Korea’s industrial ecosystem with the U.S. supply chain, moving far beyond simple assembly operations to include high-value-added production processes. It is unprecedented for Korea to execute outward FDI (OFDI) of this magnitude based on a bilateral government agreement. Consequently, this unparalleled volume of capital outflow has sparked intense debate and varied projections among economists regarding its potential impact on the domestic economy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Tariffs, Exports, Industry, and Semiconductors
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
174. Korea’s Critical Minerals Agreements: From MOUs, To Three Strategic Pillars
- Author:
- Wonseok Choi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Korea’s push for critical minerals security is anchored in a broader economic security agenda that treats upstream inputs as strategic dependencies for high-tech industries (notably semiconductors and secondary batteries). In 2023, the government introduced a national strategy to secure a reliable supply of critical minerals with an explicit target of reducing Korea’s heavy reliance on imports from a small set of supplier countries—from around 80% to 50% by 2030. This strategy operationalizes “critical minerals” through a two-tier classification: 33 critical minerals selected for economic security management, and 10 strategic critical minerals designated for intensive management to stabilize supply chains for key industries. The strategy combines market intelligence and buffer capacity. It includes plans to develop a global minerals supply map and an early-warning system for supply risks, while strengthening public stockpiling—raising the coverage target to 100 days (from 54 days) for critical minerals. In parallel, Korea has sought to expand international cooperation and diversify supply sources through plurilateral platforms and bilateral arrangements, positioning diplomacy (including MOUs) as a complement to domestic preparedness. Korea has yet to establish a dedicated, legally binding instrument for critical minerals supply chain stabilization comparable to the U.S.–Japan Critical Minerals Agreement. While it maintains cooperation through existing FTAs (e.g., with Australia, Colombia, Indonesia) and various non-binding MOUs with major producers since 2021, these mechanisms are primarily declaratory or facilitative, lacking enforceable rules on investment protection and export restrictions essential for robust supply chain security. Building on these foundations, Korea’s external cooperation toolkit needs to evolve gradually from an “MOU-centered” approach toward enforceable critical minerals (or minerals) agreements. In particular, supply chain stabilization requires an agreement architecture that links core obligations to meaningful implementation and, where appropriate, dispute settlement, so as to mitigate supply chain uncertainties originating from partner countries. This brief therefore proposes three priority pillars for Korea’s next-stage minerals arrangements: (i) disciplines on export restrictive measures (potentially anchored in the goods chapter), (ii) investment and investor protection provisions (through an investment chapter or equivalent safeguards), and (iii) facilitation of workforce mobility—especially the timely movement of technical personnel essential for supply chain cooperation and project implementation.
- Topic:
- Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Economic Cooperation, Economic Security, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
175. The Structural Transformation of U.S. Foreign Economic Policy and Its Economic Effects
- Author:
- Gusang Kang
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, U.S. foreign economic policy has undergone a structural transformation that extends beyond partisan political cycles. What initially appeared to be a temporary shift toward protectionism under the first Trump administration has consolidated into a broader orientation centered on economic security, strategic competition with China, and domestic industrial revitalization. The renegotiation of the existing trade agreements, withdrawal from multilateral frameworks, and imposition of Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs marked a clear departure from the liberal trade order that had characterized U.S. policy for decades. Rather than reversing this trajectory, the Biden administration utilized core tariff measures and expanded industrial policy through the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, reinforcing a production-centered strategy aimed at reshaping global supply chains. At the core of this transformation lies a reconfiguration of incentives governing global capital allocation and trade patterns. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) fundamentally restructured the U.S. international tax regime through provisions such as GILTI, FDII, and BEAT while lowering the statutory corporate tax rate, thereby altering firms’ location and investment decisions. At the same time, Section 301 tariffs sought to change relative prices in global value chains, reduce U.S. dependence on China, and induce supply chain realignment. Together, these measures illustrate how U.S. foreign economic policy increasingly integrates trade, tax, and industrial instruments into a coherent framework of economic statecraft. Against this backdrop, this report empirically evaluates the economic effects of these policy instruments. It examines how the TCJA affected U.S. outward and inward foreign direct investment and how Section 301 tariffs influenced trade flows at the product level, particularly with respect to trade diversion involving Korea. By employing panel regression and event-study methodologies, the study aims to identify causal impacts and dynamic adjustment patterns. The findings provide evidence that recent U.S. foreign economic policy has produced measurable structural effects on global investment and trade flows, offering important implications for Korea’s strategic economic positioning.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economy, Global Value Chains, and Structural Transformation
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
176. Korea in the Global Innovation Network: Navigating Technological Interdependence
- Author:
- Jongduk Kim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- As U.S.–China competition intensifies, rivalry is also sharpening within the global knowledge system. This raises a central question: how does deepening U.S.–China tension reshape the global innovation network (GIN)—the cross-border web through which knowledge is created, shared, and recombined? Governments worldwide have long emphasized the strategic importance of science, technology, and knowledge. Yet science and technology policy has often been approached primarily as a domestic agenda. In today’s global economic environment—marked by heightened strategic competition—this perspective is increasingly incomplete. The key issues are not only how much a country invests in innovation, but also how its position within global knowledge networks is changing, how geopolitical frictions affect knowledge flows, and what strategic direction policy should take in response. This study therefore focuses on the cross-country and cross-industry structure of technology and innovation. Traditional policy approaches have tended to prioritize expanding total R&D spending. However, innovation cannot be generated by the R&D efforts of a single country, industry, or firm alone. A defining feature of innovation—often underappreciated in policy debate—is its networked and cumulative nature: advances in one sector shape the trajectory of innovation in others, often with long-run effects. Semiconductor progress, for example, does not remain within the semiconductor industry; it underpins innovation in telecommunications, computing, and automobiles. Conversely, knowledge developed in these downstream industries feeds back into semiconductor advances. These interactions occur not only within national borders but also across them, as knowledge diffuses through multiple channels linking countries and sectors. Accordingly, effective R&D allocation and innovation strategy require explicit attention to international and intersectoral “network effects.” Against this backdrop, this World Economic Brief traces how Korea and other major economies—including the United States, China, Japan, and Europe—have evolved within the global innovation network over 2000–2020. Using this network perspective, we examine (i) changing patterns of interdependence and (ii) shifts in countries’ relative positions across key technologies.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Innovation, Strategic Competition, Research and Development, and Interdependence
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
177. China's Overseas Production-Supply Bases: Network Structure and Implications
- Author:
- Jihyun Jung
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Global supply chains are undergoing structural change as the prolonged U.S.–China strategic rivalry, the normalization of geopolitical risks, and post pandemic disruptions shift the organizing principle from efficiency to stability, resilience, security, and trust. Major economies such as the United States, EU, and Japan have responded by strengthening policies for supply chain diversification, friend shoring, and strategic management of critical minerals and advanced industries. In response to these environmental changes, China is also strengthening the strategic nature of its overseas economic activities. Whereas Chinese companies' overseas expansion previously focused on market expansion or resource acquisition, it has recently shifted to a structural network expansion strategy aimed at responding to the restructuring of global supply chains. Specifically, China is expanding its global economic network by simultaneously establishing overseas production bases, supply bases, and infrastructure/logistics networks through a combined approach involving Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI), overseas contracting projects, and trade activities. This strategy goes beyond merely relocating production bases overseas. China is pursuing a multi-layered strategy: strengthening global market access through overseas production bases, establishing supply bases to secure critical minerals and intermediate goods, and solidifying long-term economic footholds through infrastructure and industrial park development. This can be understood as China's strategic response to maintain its economic influence and enhance industrial competitiveness amid the global supply chain restructuring. Therefore, China's overseas expansion should be analyzed not merely as a phenomenon of increased investment, but as a process of restructuring global production and supply networks. This report approaches China's overseas economic activities from this perspective, understanding them as a strategy for building production and supply networks, and systematically classifies China’s overseas bases into three functional types and identifies core hub countries through standardized indicator analysis.
- Topic:
- Markets, Economy, Strategic Competition, Supply Chains, and Production
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
178. China’s Growth in Transition: Structural Shifts and Medium- to Long-term Prospects
- Author:
- Jiyoung Moon
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Since the initiation of its reform and opening-up period, China’s economy has experienced continuous high-speed growth despite multiple cycles of expansion and contraction. While China’s economic growth rate steadily declined after peaking at 14.2% in 2007, this deceleration has been stable and predictable, consistently exceeding the Chinese government’s target rate. Recently, however, China’s economic growth trajectory has reached a critical new turning point. Both external uncertainties—including intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition, persistent geopolitical tensions, and global supply-chain fragmentation—and internal downward pressures, such as delayed real-estate recovery, local government debt issues, and rising youth unemployment, have exposed the limits of the old economic growth structure and fueled the “Peak China” narrative. Nevertheless, predictions of a sharp economic decline remain tentative. The Chinese government is actively deploying various policy efforts to create a new phase of economic growth. Major economic strategies—such as the “dual circulation strategy,” “new quality productive forces,” “consumption-led economic growth,” and “Chinese-style modernization”—along with strong policy incentives, appear well-directed toward addressing the core challenges of the economic slowdown. Given that Korea maintains deeply interconnected cooperative relationships with China across multiple sectors, a careful examination of China’s economic growth prospects and the recalibration of bilateral cooperation directions is more important than ever. This report comprehensively analyzes the structural changes in China’s economy from supply-side-side perspectives, utilizes rigorous econometric modeling to forecast medium- to long-term growth and derives strategic implications for Korea’s economy.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Reform, Economy, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and South Korea
179. Global Trends in High Debt Levels and Their Macroeconomic Implications
- Author:
- Hongseok Choi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- In response to the unprecedented crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, governments and central banks around the world injected massive fiscal stimulus and liquidity support. These bold policy measures succeeded in averting the worst recession, but, as a consequence, the world is now facing historically high levels of debt. According to the Institute of International Finance, global debt surpassed USD 324 trillion in the first quarter of 2025—roughly three times the size of global GDP and “[a level unseen] since the Napoleonic Wars.” Moreover, global debt increased by USD 7.5 trillion during the same quarter, more than four times the quarterly average increase of USD 1.7 trillion since late 2022, indicating that the global debt problem has worsened rather than eased after the pandemic. Against this backdrop, Choi et al. (2025) reassessed the structure of the post-pandemic high-debt environment, analyzed vulnerabilities across advanced economies, emerging markets, and Korea, and derived policy implications for proactive responses. The purpose of this report is to present their key findings.
- Topic:
- Debt, Macroeconomics, COVID-19, Banking, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
180. A Long, Hard Year: Russia-Ukraine War Lessons Learned 2023
- Author:
- John A. Nagl and Michael T. Hackett
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Following the 2024 A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force, which explored military lessons learned from the first year of the Russia-Ukraine War, this book examines the changing character of war as the second year of the war unfolded. This year’s authors explore the conflict from four different angles: information advantage (intelligence, information operations, and cyber); landpower operations (fires, maneuver, force protection, mission command, and mercenaries); multi-domain operations (air and maritime); and crosscutting themes (diplomacy, sustainment, and innovation and adaptation). The second year witnessed the innovative approaches to combat of the first year—drones, unmanned aerial systems, and electronic-warfare offensive and defensive capabilities—combined with entrenched warfare not seen at the current scale in Europe since World War I. The use of mercenary private military companies like the Wagner Group generated moments of high suspense (with a failed mutiny in July 2023) and led to changes in Russian force structure and tactics. Delays in continued allied support tested the resolve and operational capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which nevertheless kept up the fight and held Russia back. Through it all, the conflict offers a compelling picture of the war of the future, along with lessons for the US Army Training and Doctrine Command to prepare the Joint Force to meet the challenges of the large-scale combat operations of tomorrow.
- Topic:
- Drones, Armed Conflict, Information Warfare, Russia-Ukraine War, and Trench Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
181. New Frameworks for Language Access: Tracking the Expansion & Features of State & Local Laws & Policies
- Author:
- Jacob Hofstetter
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- Over the past 25 years, many state and local governments have sought to develop more organized approaches to helping residents with limited English proficiency access public services and information. There are multiple reasons for this. By addressing language barriers, language access policies and laws help governments communicate with an increasingly multilingual U.S. public, enhance public safety and emergency responses, improve access to public information and services, and boost the overall effectiveness of government programs. Since 2020, nine states and 31 localities have enacted new language access measures. These laws and policies, which now exist in 13 states, the District of Columbia, and more than 60 localities, generally share certain common features related to agency responsibilities (for example, on the provision of interpretation services and the translation of written materials) and policy administration (such as naming an oversight office). This report explores the rise of state and local language access policies and laws, their key features, and their role in a changing national policy context during the second Trump term. With growing cracks in the federal policy framework related to language access, state and local efforts play a vital role, the study finds, in meeting the practical, everyday communication needs of state and local governments and their communities.
- Topic:
- Immigrants, Integration, Immigration Policy, Local Government, and Language Access
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
182. The 2024 Carlisle Conference on the PLA: Protracted War Against the PRC
- Author:
- Joshua Arostegui
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The US Army War College’s 2024 Carlisle Conference on the People’s Liberation Army was held on October 16 and 17 at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference featured keynote speakers from the US Department of Defense and the think-tank community, and panels focused on assessing the People’s Republic of China’s understanding of and capability to carry out a protracted war in the Indo-Pacific. The conference brought together over 100 participants from government, military, US Intelligence Community, academic, and think-tank organizations. The conference papers were authored by expert speakers and panelists and were designed to provide insight into key People’s Republic of China and People’s Liberation Army advances that could enable Chinese forces in a future protracted war against a US-led coalition. The papers were also crafted to enable in-depth seminar discussions following each panel, allowing the authors to garner feedback to improve their analyses. The conference volume is organized into four sections based on the conference panels: understanding the People’s Republic of China’s views on historical and modern protracted wars; assessing the People’s Liberation Army’s operational endurance in the land, maritime, and air domains; analyzing China and the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to command and control a protracted war; and determining how Russia and North Korea could support the People’s Republic of China in a protracted war.
- Topic:
- Security, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
183. A Human-Centric Framework: Employment Principles for Lethal Autonomous Weapons
- Author:
- Brennan Deveraux
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This monograph challenges the Department of War to reframe the conversation about humans’ involvement in lethal autonomous weapons systems by codifying a human-centric framework built on the employment pillars of certification, authority, restriction, and accountability. Although an ample body of literature discusses lethal autonomous weapon systems, this monograph takes a novel approach by proposing a theoretical framework and applying it to historical and hypothetical practical scenarios involving weapons with autonomous characteristics. In terms of methodology, the monograph relies heavily on primary sources, including UN documents and Department of War publications, which are augmented by secondary sources from experts in the field and creative speculation about the characteristics of future warfare. The study’s conclusions will help US military and policy practitioners manage and integrate lethal autonomous weapon systems. This study is designed to spark a necessary and likely uncomfortable conversation about when relying on lethal machines is appropriate. The monograph provides tangible recommendations to help shape future policy decisions about developing and employing lethal autonomous weapon systems.
- Topic:
- Security, Drones, Emerging Technology, and Autonomous Weapons Systems
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
184. Humanities Matter: Symposium Proceedings
- Author:
- Sukrita Paul Kumar, Swati Pal, and Asani Bhaduri
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- India International Centre (IIC)
- Abstract:
- In contemporary times, the obsession with technology and commerce has eventually led to a total dismissal of sensitivity to environmental issues, humanistic values and social justice. While each discipline of knowledge may have taken leaps in thought and theory, the sum and total of knowledge and learning have not resulted in an overall development of the human mind. Though ‘inclusivity’, divergent/innovative thought and ‘value education’ have become buzzwords in academic seminars and conferences, it is ‘skill development’ and ‘employability’ that have acquired a formidable importance in education. Some of the key attributes crucial in all professions are indeed compassion, empathy, fair-mindedness, emotional maturity, commitment and perseverance that evolve with a knowledge of psychology and even economics. All of these fall into the domain of Humanities and Social Sciences. Some fundamental questions that arise are: y What does it mean for a student of sciences, commerce or engineering and even medicine, to not have humanities in their curriculum? What does it mean to have this gap in knowledge? How can this issue be addressed? y Should we redefine our notion of ‘progress’? y Why is there so much misery and unhappiness amongst learners as well as teachers? y Do we equip ourselves adequately to deal with conflict resolutions rather than resorting to violence and aggression? y How do we work out a balance between theoretical and practical learning? y How do we make room for pauses for reflection amidst the stress of gathering degrees and certificates? As we navigate an increasingly complex world, it is essential to revisit the value of humanities and social sciences in fostering empathy, critical thinking and wellrounded individuals.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Academia, Curriculum, and Humanities
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
185. Emerging Challenges and Opportu-Nities in Humanitarian Assistance in Mozambique: A Case Study from Cabo Delgados
- Author:
- Fátima Chimarizeni Papelo
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to analyze the emerging challenges and opportuni-ties derived from the humanitarian assistance actions applied in Cabo Del-gado in the context of violent extremism that has been ravaging the province since 2017. This topic is relevant because the traditional concept of huma-nitarian assistance presupposes support for victims of a disaster caused by nature or man-made, and the province of Cabo Delgado presents a growing demand for humanitarian assistance due to the ongoing prolonged violent conflict. In Cabo Delgado, there are victims of a violent, unconventional, low-intensity conflict. More than 1 million people are in need of humanita-rian assistance, of which more than 50% are women and children (OCHA 2021). Along with terrorism, climate disasters, such as Cyclone Keneth in 2019, and the COVID-19 Pandemic, which began affecting Mozambique in 2020, are exacerbating the state of vulnerability of humanitarian victims. Combined, these events force non-state humanitarian actors to operate in an environment characterized by uncertainty, insecurity, and unpredictability. Nevertheless, these humanitarian actors may operate beyond what is defined by traditional humanitarian principles, which concern saving lives and allevia-ting the suffering of humanitarian victims, including developmental actions that may result in the reduction of state power in the humanitarian space and that lead to the implementation of political action by external forces. If prolonged, this scenario may accentuate the weakening of state power. Given this context, one wonders what challenges and opportunities are derived from the humanitarian support process in Cabo Delgado. This paper seeks to reflect on the emerging challenges and oppor-tunities arising from the humanitarian assistance process in Cabo Delgado. Specifically, it sought to a) define what humanitarian assistance is; b) analyze the emerging challenges for humanitarian actors in Cabo Delgado; and c) analyze the emerging opportunities for humanitarian actors within the pro-cess of humanitarian assistance in the region. We started from the hypothesis that the problem of the humanitarian assistance process in the context of violent extremism creates emerging challenges and opportunities for non--state humanitarian actors that are linked to human security, management, and coordination of humanitarian actions.
- Topic:
- Security, Violent Extremism, Armed Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgados
186. Situation Analysis of the Chissano Government: Domestic Transitions and Economic Pragmatism in Mozam-Bique (1986–2004)
- Author:
- Ercilio Neves Brandao Langa
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- This article analyzes the political situation of Mozambique during Chissano’s Government between 1986 and 2005, as well as the internal and external factors that contributed to the fulfillment or unfulfillment of the government’s objectives. Political, economic, and historical events are observed in order to evaluate the Chissano Government. Situation analysis is a plural methodology that allows interpreting events, facts, and causes, as well as describing the behavior of the actors involved, the correlations of force, and the internal and external interests that influence the course of politics. Another aspect that justifies using this tool is the historical time involved – 18 years between the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century – characterized by transformations, transitions, and dis-tinct domestic, regional, and international political-economic changes. The situation analysis proved to be an effective tool to reach a broader and deeper perspective of the Chissano Government and the national and international context in which it developed. This methodology requires historical knowle-dge of the object of study, its context and political dynamics, the organization of local society, its behavior patterns and social values, as well as its politi-cal groups, their objectives, and interests. The text constitutes a subjective perspective, a point of view on the “Chissano era”, a political, economic, and social period in the history of Mozambique. It is an ex-post-facto analysis, as it is written decades after the events have occurred, and although it limits its scope to a short period of time, it nonetheless covers long and complex socio-economic transformations. Despite systemic changes in Mozambican society, the structure of the country’s politics has remained almost the same, led by the party-state.
- Topic:
- History, Economy, Domestic Politics, and Pragmatism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
187. The Evolution of Un Peace Operations from a Human Security Perspective: The Dilemma in the Issue of Western Sahara
- Author:
- Guilherme Moreira Dias, José Maria Sydow de Barros, and Túlio Pires Barboza
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- The question of Western Sahara, “Africa’s last colony”, is quite pecu-liar in the context of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, when compared to other ongoing missions, and it is also quite unique from a geo-political point of view since the international community differs regarding this territory (Barros 2020).In this context, this article seeks to address the following issue: why didn’t the evolution of UN peace operations, which occurred after the expan-sion of the international security agenda and the emergence of the concept of human security, provide any significant change in the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO)? We will consider the hypothesis that, although there is a consensus at the international level on the importance of the concept of human security, there has been no significant change in MINURSO’s mandate, such as the incorporation of new assign-ments, due to Morocco’s close relationship with some permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), namely France and the United States.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Human Security
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Western Sahara
188. Contemporary Terrorism: A Theoretical Perspective
- Author:
- Yoslán Silverio González
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- Studying the impact of terrorism on international relations is of vital importance due to the implications not only local and regional but also within the international system. The phenomenon of terrorism is not exclusive to a region or a country, it can affect everyone in indirect ways. In this sense, it crosses borders and does not understand nationalities. The most dangerous thing is the treatment given to it in international forums, multilateral orga-nizations, and the media since it is presented as a threat to security, but to legitimize military actions by Western powers or to delegitimize governments “not prone to the West”.This article is based on a conceptual proposal that helps to understand the phenomenon of terrorism from a non-Western perspective, criticizing the positions of the United States in this regard. The main objective is to deepen the debate around the concept of terrorism, its erroneous link to Islam, and to nationalist and/or revolutionary movements. It is also pertinent to see how it has been legally defined by international law, through resolutions, conventions, and protocols of different multilateral organizations, including the African Union (AU).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Global South, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Global Focus
189. Asia’s Growing Global Influence: A Study of India’s Africa Policy
- Author:
- Hamdy A. Hassan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- The 21st century could become an Asian and African century, which will result in a radical global transformation of the world. Thus, the past decade has witnessed a large Asian presence in Africa, especially, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Not surprisingly that the rise of Asia in global politics has worried the traditional Western powers. Analyzing contemporary Asian approaches to Africa should be performed through their historical contexts, in particular the history of competition and rivalry between Asian rising powers. It is no secret that this point has not been adequately addres-sed in previous studies on African-Asian relations (Iwata 2019). This state of rivalry is reflected in the African policies of major Asian countries. For example, the Sino-Indian conflict and the Sino-Japanese conflict, in addition to the Taiwan issue, have definitely affected these countries’ interactions with Africa. In contrast to European policies towards Africa after the founding of the European Union, there is no consensus framework for Asian international relations. The experience of struggle against colonialism and engagement in the Non-Aligned Movement represented the most prominent components of the mutual relations between Asia and Africa, especially since the Ban-dung Conference in 1955 (Adem 2017). When the Cold War ended, Asian countries began to achieve high and rapid rates of economic development. Hence, the Asian countries that previously received development aid have become among the most important international donors. This means that the concept of “donor powers” has undergone a major change that it is not limited to Western industrialized countries (including Japan). Perhaps all of this requires studying and analyzing Asian-African relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Global South, Donors, and Foreign Influence
- Political Geography:
- Africa and India
190. Monitoring Report | Public consultation in Albania: The illusion of inclusion
- Author:
- Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
- Abstract:
- The Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM) has released a new report: Public Consultation in Albania: The Illusion of Inclusion. This report presents the results of an in-depth monitoring of 50 laws, public policies, and strategic documents consulted by the central government during the years 2022-2023. The assessment covers 10 key government institutions, evaluating their public consultation processes in terms of: Transparency and accessibility of consultation documents; Effectiveness of the public consultation process; Public accountability during this process; Citizen participation in consultations; Ensuring inclusivity and non-discrimination. In addition to the qualitative analysis of public consultation previously conducted by IDM, this assessment for the first time provides statistical data related to this important governance process. The evaluation system applied in this report provides the opportunity to compare institutions’ performance in the consultation of different acts, in relation to the aforementioned principles. Ultimately, the findings highlight a ‘’long distance’’ between transparency and participation in government consultations. The goal of this study is to contribute to evidence-based advocacy for legal reforms and the improvement of institutional practices, so that public consultations fulfill their core function – citizens’ participation and impact in decision-making.
- Topic:
- Transparency, Inclusion, Monitoring, and Civic Space
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Balkans, and Albania
191. Military Implications of PLA Aircraft Incursions in Taiwan’s Airspace 2024
- Author:
- Cheng-kun Ma and K. Tristan Tang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In 2024, the number of days and sorties involving Chinese military aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line reached a peak, but the total sorties of Chinese aircraft around Taiwan and the number of peak incursion periods were not significantly higher than in 2023. While the number of Chinese military aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s airspace has surged, the operational capacity of the PLA Eastern Theater Command Air Force is likely already at its maximum peacetime readiness level. The sharp increase in Chinese military aircraft incursions targeting Taiwan is not solely aimed at President Ching-te Lai but also reflects changes in the scope and intensity of the PLA’s training and exercises around Taiwan. Unless new airbases are constructed or logistical support capabilities are significantly improved within the PLA Eastern Theater Command, the number of sorties into Taiwan’s airspace is unlikely to increase substantially in 2025.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Air Force, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
192. Dreams Deferred in Xi’s New Year’s Speech
- Author:
- Arran Hope
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Xi Jinping’s New Year’s speech hinted at weaknesses in the People’s Republic of China. The speech emphasized the many hardships that people are currently facing at home while acknowledging fears about a turbulent external environment. Xi did not mention “national rejuvenation” and he conceded that the “China dream” was far from being realized. Doubling down on the ideology of struggle, a hard work ethic, and enforcing nationalist sentiment as crucial factors for escaping the current malaise, Xi’s speech suggested a shortage of tangible solutions for the country’s problems.
- Topic:
- Politics, Ideology, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
193. Untangling the Transatlantic Knot: Germany, France, and the United States
- Author:
- Gesine Weber and Jacob Ross
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- France’s and Germany’s reactions to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reveal their significantly different relationships with the United States. Their interpretations regarding the European security architecture are almost diametrically opposed. While Berlin concluded that European security must be constructed transatlantically, Paris saw confirmation of its interpretation that Europeans must be able to address security challenges independently of Washington. Donald Trump’s reelection constitutes a challenge for the two countries because both need to fundamentally rethink their respective relationships with the United States and Europe-US relations more generally. The scope of the US withdrawal from European security remains to be seen, but it will be similarly challenging for Paris and Berlin.
- Topic:
- NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America
194. China: From Systemic Rival to Systemic Threat
- Author:
- Andrew Small and Bonnie S. Glaser
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- For the United States and Europe, dealing with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now a challenge of such wide-ranging nature that it will cut across almost the entire transatlantic agenda of the incoming Trump administration. From addressing Beijing’s role as the “decisive enabler” for Russia’s war of aggression to rethinking the way that US-EU trade and technology ties need to be organized, China policy no longer occupies a separate silo but conditions every element of the security and economic landscape. Under the Biden administration, Europe and the United States undertook an unprecedented effort not only to coordinate their approaches to the PRC itself, but also to advance on other fronts where the China challenge was the main motivating factor, such as EU-US efforts to negotiate agreements on steel, aluminum, and critical minerals. The two sides’ analysis has grown much closer, and in some areas, this translated into tangible results—whether conveying common red lines to Beijing on the delivery of lethal aid to Moscow and the use of force against Taiwan or tightening controls on advanced semiconductor equipment exports. Overall, however, progress still fell short of the high stakes. Some EU member states treated the Biden administration’s partner-friendly approach as a holiday from difficult strategic choices on China rather than an optimal window in which to make them. EU-level efforts to build more effective approaches on economic security, trade defense, and cyber security were often slow-rolled or undercut by major capitals. There were also areas in which the Biden administration allowed domestic political considerations to undermine efforts to build a common strategic economic approach among US partners—particularly the use of national security tools against US allies, whether the blocking of Nippon’s takeover of US Steel or the initial retention (and suspension rather than lifting) of Section 232 tariffs against the EU. While the two sides are certainly more closely aligned and better coordinated, moving in the right direction is no longer enough. If Europe and the United States are unable to achieve results in several critical areas in the next few years, it will come at a growing cost to their security and economic interests, as well as to the broader transatlantic relationship. Success, on the other hand, would put a new set of foundations under it. Three issues are likely to loom over the agenda for the incoming Trump administration: the threat of the “Second China Shock” to US and European industry; Beijing’s deepening coordination with Russia and other authoritarian states; and intensifying PRC pressure on Taiwan.
- Topic:
- European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Defense Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
195. Reflections on WTO Reform: Lecture series by Ignacio Garcia Bercero
- Author:
- Ignacio Garcia Bercero
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- This special edition of our Expert Analysis presents four lectures (edited for publication) on World Trade Organization reform delivered by the author at LSE IDEAS during June-November 2022 and concluding in May 2023. The paper ends on a postscript reflecting on the perspectives on the different issues discussed in the lectures following the outcome of the 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO in February-March 2024, as well as the November 2024 re-election of Donald Trump—on the basis of a disruptive trade policy agenda.
- Topic:
- Reform, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and WTO
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
196. Lift the Sanctions: The Principal Danger in Syria Today is Instability
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The most critical international security goal regarding Syria today is the country’s stabilization – and that requires immediate and substantial aid and sanction relief. The question on which recognition of the new government should most hinge is whether it can achieve sovereign authority in the country and do so without the type of human rights abuses or cross-border militancy that pose a threat to regional peace. Given the urgency of stabilizing the country, the new government provisionally meets this criteria. Should it change course and pose a threat to regional peace, the international community can adjust policy accordingly. Two outstanding challenges to sovereignty and legitimacy are the presence of foreign troops – Israeli, Turkish, and US – and the status of Kurdish areas. Especially acute is the triangular relationship among Damascus, Ankara, and Syria’s Kurdish community, which is among the issues addressed in this viewpoint. As for foreign troops: 15,000-20,000 currently occupy the country. Affirming Syrian sovereignty entails expeditiously withdrawing all those forces not explicitly invited by the new government. A related concern is the remnants of the Islamic State (ISIL) in Syria, including the 40,000+ cadre, family members, and displaced persons interned in camps run by the Kurdish authorities. Going forward, the task of managing and combating IS remnants on Syrian territory should fall to Damascus, acting together with Kurdish and foreign partners as it sees fit. The threat that IS affiliates and aspirants pose to the United States and the broader international community have been and are most effectively addressed through measure of homeland security and law enforcement. Securing the US homeland does not require the ongoing deployment of US troops in Syria, which would inadvertently undermine the legitimacy of the new government.
- Topic:
- International Security, Sanctions, Syrian War, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
197. Shipment of a Controlled Vacuum Furnace to North Korea via Multiple States: An HS Code Case Study
- Author:
- David Albright
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- In tracking trade data and trade flows, Harmonized System (HS) codes are routinely used to aid searches for dual-use commodities and to help guide the identification of dual-use items that require a license or greater scrutiny. A recurring concern is shipper falsification of HS codes to evade detection or payment of duties. An illustration of such falsifications is a case we learned about via government sources from around 2022 that involved North Korea and a dual-use vacuum furnace suitable for uranium melting that wound its way from Spain to North Korea, via Mexico, South Africa, and China. Such a furnace is typically controlled under the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) Part 2 list and is banned for export to North Korea under United Security Council resolutions. This type of furnace is a mainstay of a nuclear weapons program, particularly one that uses weapon-grade uranium as the nuclear explosive material, as North Korea is known to do. With North Korea expanding its uranium enrichment program and producing greater quantities of weapon-grade uranium, this new furnace would be especially important.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Trade, and Dual Use Items
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
198. New Information on Shenyang Machine Tool Company’s Illicit Sales to North Korea and Russia
- Author:
- David Albright and Spencer Faragasso
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- Several years ago, the Institute reported about the relatively large, multinational Chinese company Shenyang Machine Tools Company supplying sophisticated computer numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools, equipped with Western controlled software, to North Korea in violation of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions and a supplier country’s trade control laws that banned re-export of this software. New information details the disingenuous way in which the Chinese government investigated this case, indicating nonetheless inadvertently that North Korea received these machine tools, while also demonstrating China’s utter disregard for enforcing UNSC sanctions or its own or others’ export control laws. This case serves as another of the many cases highlighting China as a long-time irresponsible trading partner that responsible companies should avoid when sensitive dual-use goods are involved, lest they be complicit in outfitting North Korea’s, Iran’s, or Russia’s military programs. Today, responsible suppliers are inadvertently facilitating Russia’s prosecution of an illegal war against Ukraine. Given Shenyang Machine Tools Company’s recent exports of goods to Russia with Harmonized Shipments (HS) codes found on the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Common High Priority List (CHPL), this company should be considered for sanctions.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Trade, Illegal Trade, and Shenyang Machine Tool Company
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and North Korea
199. Assad’s Fall Is an Opportunity for a U.S. Win Over China
- Author:
- Grant Rumley
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Beijing consistently supported the regime’s brutal repressive measures, so cozying up to the rebel-led transition government may be more difficult than it expects. In the months since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023, China has seized on the conflict to criticize not only Israel but by extension the U.S. and its position in the region. For years, Chinese diplomats had been careful to toe a centrist line in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calibrating their language to avoid offending either side too greatly. Yet as the conflict has dragged on the past year, and as the region’s criticisms of the U.S. have risen, Beijing sensed an opportunity to diminish the U.S. standing while boosting its own. Chinese officials have regularly omitted mention of Hamas’s atrocities while blasting Israel and the U.S. for its support. Now, however, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has presented the U.S. with a similar opportunity...
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, Bashar al-Assad, 2023 Gaza War, and Transitional Government
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
200. In Syria, America Should Be Ruthlessly Focused on the Islamic State
- Author:
- Joseph Votel and Elizabeth Dent
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With the U.S. military presence on a potentially short timetable, officials should prioritize policies that ensure the continued security of Islamic State detention facilities, such as brokering local ceasefire agreements and alleviating Turkish concerns. Five years ago, we warned that a snap decision to depart Syria would be a devastating setback and damage American credibility. A few weeks later, amongst a U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion into areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, we argued the United States would need to maintain the ability to fight remnants of the Islamic State and ensure the fighters in detention remain there. Washington ceded much of its negotiating power in the country to Moscow and Ankara, only to reverse course a few months later and keep a small allotment of troops in northeast Syria to prevent a power vacuum and a run on Syrian oil and gas infrastructure. Today, the United States and its Kurdish-led partners face a nearly identical set of challenges, but in a massively changed balance of power in Syria. And despite political nominees’ reassurances that the United States is unlikely to abandon its partners there, Trump himself has been more ambivalent...
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islamic State, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America