Publication Year: within 5 Years - CIAO Search Results

601. Prepare now: Europe must get ready for the coming long-term care surge

Author:: Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, David Pinkus, and Nina Ruer
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Demographic change and ageing populations in European Union countries will impact many aspects of the economy and have a direct effect on long-term care (LTC) systems. Demand for LTC already exceeds supply in many EU countries, leading to the ‘care gap’. This gap is expected to widen, threatening quality of life for the elderly, exacerbating gender disparities and imposing significant economic costs. The root causes of the gap include demographic shifts, inadequate public investment, workforce shortages and a heavy reliance on informal caregiving. Women stand to lose the most if no steps are taken to prepare LTC systems for the coming surge in demand because care, both formal and informal, is predominantly provided by women. The care gap can be reduced by either increasing the supply of care or by reducing the demand for care. We assess LTC reforms in five EU countries and explain how these can affect the care gap by influencing demand and supply. Governments should: Recognise LTC as a priority. Governments should increase public spending on LTC and make LTC a central policy priority linked to broader goals, including gender equality and economic growth. Expand funding mechanisms. Governments can introduce new means of financing, such as mandatory LTC insurance and pre-funding mechanisms. Most importantly, benefits should target those with the greatest needs, to promote equity and adequacy. Support the workforce more. The LTC sector should be made more attractive by raising wages, improving working conditions and expanding training programmes to attract and retain workers. Develop prevention strategies. EU funds could be directed to research into treatments targeting age-related diseases such as dementia. National governments could invest in public health campaigns and preventive care to reduce future demand. Use the newest technologies. EU countries should invest in robotics and assistive technologies to improve productivity and to reduce physical strain on caregivers.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Governance, European Union, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe

602. Not yet Trump-proof: an evaluation of the European Commission’s emerging policy platform

Author:: Heather Grabbe and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The economic strategy being defined by the 2024-2029 European Commission seems to follow the prescriptions on innovation and single market reform, and the expansive approach to industrial policy, set out by Mario Draghi in his September 2024 report on European Union competitiveness, with two important differences. First, the Commission stops short of calling for World Trade Organisation-prohibited subsidies – this is welcome. Second, the Commission proposes a new state aid framework for national industrial policy rather than expansion of EU-level public investment funding. This runs the risk of weakening the single market and harming competition, with the unintended consequence of protecting incumbents and inhibiting structural change. In terms of specific policies, on defence, the Commission is right to face up to the challenge of defining an EU procurement mechanism that offers sufficient speed and cost advantages to justify large-scale funding. On economic security and international partnerships, the Commission is right to take a broader approach than a foreign economic policy focused only on supply chains. What is lacking is a much greater commitment to providing support for climate mitigation in developing countries. The second Trump presidency creates risks for the Commission strategy. President Trump has gone further than expected in threatening territorial expansion and with the speed, aggression and disregard for the rule of law with which he has started to implement his policies. These factors will complicate the EU-United States relationship. The best defence against both Trump and the competitive and security threats posed by China is to accelerate policies that address the EU’s structural weaknesses: raising productivity growth, defence capacity and economic security. Economic security, in turn, requires more resilient trade relationships, less financial dependence on the US and an improved standing with emerging market and developing economies. The EU should also seize the opportunity offered by the shift in US policy from subsidies to deregulation. While the EU should not race Trump to the bottom on environmental or financial deregulation, it should rapidly improve its own regulatory framework while building on its core strengths: human capital and the rule of law. Unlike tariff wars or discriminatory subsidies, a competition to provide a good business environment is not a zero-sum game.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Industrial Policy, Budget, European Union, Digital Economy, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, Sustainability, European Commission, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

603. Upgrading Europe's electricity grid is about more than just money

Author:: Conall Heussaff and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Electricity network investment is essential for the energy transition, with annual investments of tens of billions of euros required across Europe. Network companies are already investing such amounts and delivering efficient grid investments requires more than additional money. Assessing infrastructure needs is the first step in grid investment. At local, national and European Union levels, network development planning is determined by policy choices and can greatly affect the efficiency of investments. Coordinated grid planning is crucial to set the right incentives for the efficient development of the European electricity system. An EU independent system operator could assume responsibility for network planning by providing regular, independent assessment of efficient network investment needs from a holistic European perspective. Although significant capital expenditure is undoubtedly necessary, network regulation should encourage network companies to invest in the most-efficient solutions. Current regulatory approaches may favour traditional capital expenditure, leading to system inefficiencies and higher-than-necessary consumer costs. Cross-border electricity transmission infrastructure is critical to integrate renewables into the electricity system at scale and reduce costs for European consumers. But such projects are often not built or are delayed because those that decide on and pay for the infrastructure are not necessarily those that benefit from it. A European fund could smooth negotiations between parties and accelerate the physical interconnection of the European electricity system. Fairly recovering the costs of grid investments from consumers is vital to maintain public support for the energy transition. National funds could smooth out cost impacts over time, keeping electricity affordable throughout the energy transition.
Topic:: Climate Change, Electricity, Decarbonization, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Europe

604. How to improve the European Union’s sustainable finance framework

Author:: Silvia Merler
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union has sought to steer corporate behaviour to support its climate goals by adopting a large body of rules on sustainable investment, sustainability disclosures and sustainability labelling of financial products, underpinned by a taxonomy of activities considered sustainable. It is unclear, however, if this effort has had significant results. Examination of financial market data and metrics of investment flows towards green and sustainable investment shows up several weaknesses – both contingent and structural – in the EU sustainable finance framework, which could limit its effectiveness in aligning capital flows with climate objectives. The Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) is aimed at making the sustainability content of financial products more transparent but rests on a concept of ‘sustainable investment’ that is too broad and loosely defined. Meanwhile, the EU Taxonomy Regulation has not yet become established as the reference framework for corporate bond issuance or sustainable investing. The EU also lacks a coherent framework for transition finance – or investment that is not yet classified as sustainable but that represents progress to greater sustainability – despite this being the market segment to which the largest volumes of investment will need to flow in the short to medium run. Five adjustments would make the EU sustainable finance framework more effective at delivering the desired alignment of incentives. First, the taxonomy framework should be completed and clarified. Second, the SFDR definition of sustainable investment should be toughened. Third, the neutrality of the framework across capital market instruments, in particular debt versus equity, should be ensured. Fourth, a dedicated framework for transition finance should be developed. Finally, formal sustainable and transition labels for financial products should be introduced. This approach would make the sustainable finance framework more easily applicable to all kind of companies and all types of capital market instruments, regardless of whether they limit the use of proceeds, and it would be naturally extendable into a framework for transition finance and into a transparent sustainability labelling regime for financial products.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Europe

605. The European Union’s new fiscal framework: a good start, but challenges loom

Author:: Nicolas Boivin and Zsolt Darvas
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union’s fiscal framework, updated in April 2024, aims to strengthen fiscal sustainability and foster public investment. It requires countries to maintain or gradually reduce their public debts to no more than 60 percent of GDP, and ensures compliance with a 3 percent of GDP deficit limit and some safeguards. EU countries must submit Medium-Term Fiscal Structural Plans (MTFSPs) showing how they intend to comply. MTFSPs for most EU countries have now been approved by the European Commission, on the basis that the fiscal paths in the plans are credible and increased public investment is foreseen even amid fiscal consolidation. However, macroeconomic assumptions in MTFSPs frequently deviate from the Commission’s guidance, often reflecting optimistic growth projections. Overly optimistic assumptions risk deviations from approved fiscal paths, while disagreements about macro projections, which are central to debt sustainability analysis, could undermine the framework’s credibility and hinder implementation at a later stage. Several MTFSPs assume higher stock-flow adjustments (SFAs) than included in the Commission’s prior guidance, indicating that these countries must implement somewhat larger fiscal adjustments. Historical data shows large positive SFAs for many countries, suggesting that multi-year-ahead SFA projections should be extended to all countries, based on a transparent methodology. The plans indicate that greater planned fiscal adjustments tend to be associated with deeper cuts to public investment. The overall increase in public investment ratios remains below 0.2 percent of GDP according to the plans and Commission and OECD forecasts. While the EU’s major investment gaps should primarily be addressed through private investment, public investment must also play a role. Innovative approaches, such as a new EU fund financed by common borrowing, are essential to boost investment in the EU. The updated fiscal framework’s long-term success depends on achieving consensus on macroeconomic assumptions, including the standardisation of methods to assess the growth impacts of reforms, while refining SFA methodologies and finding new ways to foster investment. Strengthening these elements will make the framework more credible and effective, enabling it to better guide fiscal policy and support sustainable growth.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

606. Europe’s energy information problem

Author:: Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Comprehensive information on energy-related topics, such as take-up of heat pumps, industrial natural gas consumption and prices, and battery connections to the electricity grid, is either not available in Europe in a timely manner, or not available at the level of granularity, reliability and consistency needed for informed decision-making. Certain information is simply not collected, while other information is collected but is not comparable or consistent across Europe, or is hard to access. European policy targets, such as greenhouse-gas emission reduction pathways, are evaluated using models for which input assumptions and parameters are not public knowledge. It should be a European Union priority to improve this situation. Doing so will enable better decision-making by policymakers and companies. This is especially relevant when Europe faces the triple challenge of decarbonisation, ensuring security of energy supply and growing its internationally competitive energy-consuming industries. The EU status quo is that good energy information is provided by a mix of institutions, agencies, national bodies, industrial associations and non-governmental organisations, but with substantial room for improvement. Lessons can be learned from the United States Energy Information Administration and the European Environment Agency, which was established to better coordinate climate data. Improving energy information will involve difficult political decisions. A process should be started to evaluate the options and to measure the continued cost of inaction.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Institutions, Green Deal, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

607. Europeans still want climate action, but don't trust governments to deliver

Author:: Jan Eichhorn and Heather Grabbe
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The vast majority of Europeans continues to support action to combat climate change, but many are losing faith in governments to deliver a transition that is effective and fair. Based on a large-scale questionnaire answered by nearly 8000 people in five EU countries in 2024, with a comparison to responses from 2020, we find that Europeans continue to worry about climate change and want effective action to combat it, even though the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly increased their concerns about economic and physical insecurity. Scepticism about the causes of climate change has risen a bit, and concern about adapting to its impact has grown. People across all income groups, particularly in France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, feel negative about the outlook for their economic future and their governments’ ability to improve it. People who feel politically disaffected think that decisionmakers are not taking their views and interests into account when making economic and climate policies. Some people are now shifting their attention away from action against the climate crisis towards adaptation, but this does not mean they are less concerned about climate change. Instead, for some people, it is an expression of their disillusionment with state institutions – and this feeling is present among supporters of parties across the political spectrum. Worry about climate change is equally spread across all socio-economic groups. Closer examination of attitudes in Germany, using evidence from focus groups, which we also discuss in this Policy Brief, reinforces the finding of increasing scepticism about the German government’s ability to manage the climate crisis. If political leaders want the public to continue to support climate policies, they must engage proactively now to avoid even greater loss of confidence in government. If governments go soft on efforts to combat the climate crisis now or delay action, they will not meet voters’ demand for an effective and just transition. Moreover, hesitation and delay would boost populist and far-right actors’ efforts to sow doubt about the causes of climate change and whether policies will be effective.
Topic:: Climate Change, Elections, Populism, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

608. Will China’s economy follow the same path as Japan’s?

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Since the bursting of China’s real-estate bubble in mid-2021, there has been a growing concern that the Chinese economy could end up like that of Japan in the early 1990s. Some structural patterns are strikingly similar: low private consumption over a long period, especially when compared to the rest of the world, and an excessively high savings ratio, though China’s imbalances now are even larger that Japan’s were then. Initial policy responses to the bursting of their respective bubbles have also been similar. Both China now and Japan then were initially hesitant to ease monetary and fiscal policies, and opted to expand manufacturing, with an eye on external demand, supported by more research and development expenditure. In both cases, the outcomes were stubborn trade surpluses and a mercantilist attitude to their growth problems, leading to the United States taking protectionist measures. China also seems to be following Japan’s offshoring of production to mitigate the impact of protectionism. The main difference, though, is that China now is a poorer country than Japan was then, with still more convergence opportunities ahead. China is also a much bigger military and geopolitical contender than Japan ever was. China’s geopolitical weight is behind the US technological containment of China, but also gives China more room for manoeuvre globally, especially in the Global South. It remains unclear – though globally significant – whether China will be able to deviate from the path followed by Japan in the 1980s and 1990s.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, Economic Growth, Innovation, and Real Estate
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

609. Ukraine: European democracy’s affordable arsenal

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: European NATO members must raise defence spending by enough to deter through strength an irredentist Russia. This must be done possibly without the United States and when ageing populations demand higher social spending. Raising defence spending to sufficient levels could result in a doubling of current primary deficits to just over 3 percent of GDP on average. This seems likely to be a fiscally unattainable goal for this group of countries. European NATO members, in addition to their quantitative defence spending challenge, face the qualitative challenge of significantly increasing their outlays on new modern military equipment, especially drones, to credibly deter Russia. This will require all European NATO members to significantly increase investments in their domestic and regional military-industrial capacities. While its armed forces are physically defending their country against Russia’s onslaught, Ukraine is transforming gradually into a very large, advanced and cost-competitive military equipment and weapons producer. Through the so-called ‘Danish Model’, individual European Union and NATO members are already actively funding Ukrainian defence production, helping it to help itself against Russia. Much more focus should be put on Ukraine’s ability, if fully integrated with the military-industrial sector in the rest of Europe, to produce much of the modern military equipment wanted by itself and the rest of Europe. This Policy Brief shows how Ukraine already produces drones and modern howitzers, arguably the two most important weapons in defensive warfare today, at prices well below those achieved by other Western military suppliers. The EU, with a fully integrated and funded Ukrainian military-industrial sector, will have the capacity to produce much of the cost-competitive military equipment it will need in future, while continuing to fund its welfare systems. To facilitate this development, the EU must in all defence and military-related matters begin treating Ukraine immediately as a full EU member.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Industrial Policy, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

610. Reinforcing EU merger control against the risks of acquisitions by big tech

Author:: Mario Mariniello
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Since 2000, online platforms that are now within the scope of the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), have bought nearly 700 small, promising companies worldwide. However, only 19 of their attempted acquisitions were notified to the European Commission, the authority exercising merger control over deals with a substantive EU connection. In the other cases, the acquired target’s turnover did not meet the conditions for merger notification. These acquisitions have happened in the context of digital markets becoming increasingly concentrated, leading to speculation that concentration levels might have been lower had some of those acquisitions not taken place. The harm that the concentration of market power in a handful of American digital companies may cause is magnified by the current position of the United States, which aims to shield platforms from regulatory enforcement. Acquisitions of small companies may have pro- or anti-competitive effects. Established market players may buy startups to become more competitive or to supply a higher quality product or service, ultimately benefitting final users. Mergers may also incentivise innovation and attract venture capital. However, incumbents might also acquire small companies with strategic, anti-competitive objectives. They might want to stop challengers to their market power from emerging in the future. Or they might acquire small companies to prevent competitors from relying on the target’s supply to complement their competing products. Moreover, competition authorities struggle to make accurate predictions about the evolution of competitive dynamics in new and complex markets, such as digital markets. Authorities thus may be unable to take the correct decision, even if the merger is notified. Responding to these issues hinges on amending the DMA. The European Commission should be empowered to scrutinise any acquisition performed by the large platforms within the DMA scope (currently, the DMA requires these platforms to inform the Commission of any intended concentration, but envisages no other action). Moreover, the burden of proving that the merger is not harmful should be shifted to the large platforms. This would leverage market players’ knowledge to help increase the accuracy of merger decisions in a highly dynamic and uncertain environment.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Microeconomics, Big Tech, European Commission, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

611. How DeepSeek has changed artificial intelligence and what it means for Europe

Author:: Bertin Martens
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: By mid-2024, artificial intelligence large language models (LLMs) were running into diminishing returns to scale in training data and computational capacity. LLM training began to shift away from costly pre-training to cheaper fine-tuning and allowing LLMs to ‘reason’ for longer before replying to questions. Fine-tuning uses chain-of-thought (CoT) training data that includes questions and the logical steps to reach correct answers. This increases the efficiency of learning for smaller AI models, such as DeepSeek. CoT data can be extracted from large ‘teacher’ LLMs to train small ‘student’ models. These changes shift the cost structure of AI models from high pre-training costs to lower fine-tuning costs for model developers and more inference costs for users. While smaller models are cheaper to use, a positive AI demand effect is likely to exceed the negative price effect. Price competition between models will increase, resulting in tighter margins for AI firms. Specialised models can still fetch premium prices. Cheaper LLMs are an opportunity for European Union companies to catch up in building smaller AI models and applications on top of LLMs. Increased demand for AI services will require more investment in computing infrastructure, including in the EU. Investing in large LLMs and the corresponding hyperscale infrastructure is riskier, especially as price competition between models increases. Knowledge extraction between AI models puts pressure on model developers to protect their investments against free-riding by others. It also creates a dilemma for policymakers: should they favour free-riding to promote competition and innovation, or should they clamp down and reinforce monopoly rents to stimulate investment in AI models? Past policy will not be an appropriate response in a world that offers vastly expanded opportunities for knowledge pooling and innovation at lower cost.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Economic Policy, Microeconomics, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Large Language Models (LLMs), and DeepSeek
Political Geography:: Europe

612. The demographic divide: inequalities in ageing across the European Union

Author:: David Pinkus and Nina Ruer
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union is projected to enter a period of population decline after 2026, with implications for economic development and labour markets, though these will vary because of different trends in different EU countries. Between 2023 and 2050, Eastern and Southern EU countries will face the sharpest declines because of both natural population decrease and limited net inward migration. In contrast, Northern and Western countries could see population growth driven by higher migration. By 2050, working-age populations are projected to decline in 22 out of 27 EU countries, while the share of those aged 85+ in the EU as whole will more than double. This shift will strain healthcare, pension and long-term care systems across the continent. Eastern and Southern EU countries will face more severe ageing and workforce shrinkages, undermining their competitiveness and potentially contributing to increasing inequality. Western and Northern countries will also age, but slower natural population decline and larger migration inflows will give them more time to adjust. However, regional disparities within countries will likely widen as migrants concentrate in urban areas, leaving rural regions even more vulnerable to depopulation. Policies must be adapted to these different demographic trends. Eastern EU countries should focus on retaining talent, attracting migrants in sectors with labour shortages and increasing labour-force participation by women and older workers. Southern countries should strengthen family-friendly and youth-employment policies, while improving migrant integration and regional infrastructure. Western and Northern countries must prioritise migrant integration, rural development and gradual labour-market reforms for ageing populations. A coordinated EU plan for these different trends would support EU countries in addressing the challenges they will face. Integration of migrants into labour markets and societies will be especially important, though relying on sustained high migration may not be a viable long-term solution and will not be a substitute for maximising the participation of residents in labour markets.
Topic:: Demographics, European Union, Inequality, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe

613. Making the best of the new EU Social Climate Fund

Author:: Eva Jüngling, Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The slow pace of decarbonisation of buildings and transportation threatens the European Union’s goal of reducing emissions by 55 percent by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2050. To address this, a new emissions trading system, ETS2, is being introduced to put a carbon price on fuels used in buildings and road transport. However, the resulting cost increases risk a disproportionate impact on vulnerable households and small and medium sized enterprises. The European Union has created the Social Climate Fund (SCF) to address these distributional challenges. This instrument redistributes a portion of auction revenues generated by the ETS2 among EU countries, in order to protect the most vulnerable. A much larger share of ETS2 revenues will flow directly to national governments, offering significant opportunities for social measures and investments in the green transition. The use of those revenues will dictate how successful EU countries are in managing the transition and protecting households, particularly in higher-income member states, which will receive relatively smaller shares of SCF funding. ETS2 is an essential part of the EU climate policy toolkit. Governments should employ good practices, as identified by the European Commission, to tackle emissions from buildings and transport and to gradually phase out income support, in line with the achievement of investment targets and milestones. Higher-income EU countries should develop additional targeted financing levers to protect the vulnerable and to introduce extra enablers to encourage private investment. Proper sequencing, outreach and communication will be essential to ensure the uptake of measures and public support for policy instruments. Cross-country learning should be leveraged, including through the creation of a European policy registry that will help countries compare their approaches and potentially amend their SCF spending plans on the basis of learning from policies that been successful elsewhere.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Welfare, Transportation, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Protection
Political Geography:: Europe

614. The governance and funding of European rearmament

Author:: Guntram B. Wolff, Armin Steinbach, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Europe faces a grave security threat. Gaps in European military equipment are substantial compared to Russia’s military build-up. The European defence market is fragmented and weakened by home bias in procurement, low order numbers and technological gaps. These problems reflect the combination of past reliance on the United States and Europe’s nationally-based defence governance. With the US now retreating from its role of European guardian, greater cooperation is essential to close technological gaps and reduce rearmament costs. Unless procurement is pooled and fragmentation reduced, additional demand for defence goods will mainly drive up prices. Better-integrated defence markets would both increase competition and facilitate entry of new defence technology firms. The combination of integrated markets and scaled-up procurement could lead to a halving of unit costs. European Union measures including the European Defence Fund, the Act in Support of Ammunition Production, the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act and ReArm Europe represent progress towards strengthening the supply of military goods but the incentives offered are too small to address the home bias in procurement or to coordinate the provision of ‘strategic enablers’ such as military satellites. To go further, the EU and its European allies have two options. First, the role of the European Defence Agency could be broadened, possibly in combination with a new lending instrument similar to the EU’s 2020-22 SURE programme. Second, a European Defence Mechanism (EDM) could be created: an institution similar to the European Stability Mechanism, based on an intergovernmental treaty. The EDM would undertake joint procurement and plan for the provision of strategic enablers in specified areas, with a capacity to fund these roles. It could own strategic enablers and charge usage fees to EDM members, reducing the budgetary impact of rearmament. EDM membership would entail prohibition of both state aid and procurement preferences that benefit national defence contractors at the expense of contractors from other EDM members. Of the two options, the second is preferable, as it would (1) create a defence industry single market among EDM members, (2) create a financing vehicle that might make large-scale projects fiscally feasible, and (3) include non-EU democracies such as the United Kingdom on an equal footing, while also giving an opt-out to EU countries that lack the political appetite for more defence integration, or that have national constitutional constraints.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Governance, Geopolitics, Weapons, Macroeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

615. Who should be charged? Principles for fair allocation of electricity system costs

Author:: Conall Heussaff, Eva Jüngling, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The high costs in the European Union of supplying electricity can only be structurally reduced through decarbonisation and deeper European electricity system integration. In the short-term, policymakers have few choices. They can redistribute system costs by shifting components from one consumer to another. Another immediate distributional option would be to reduce energy taxation, implicitly shifting costs to the taxpayer. Meanwhile, decision-making processes that translates electricity system costs into final consumer prices are fragmented. Rules on the short-term production, transmission and consumption of electricity are determined at EU level. National regulators and governments determine how the fixed costs of the system are recovered from consumers, while national policymakers also set energy taxes. This Policy Brief sets out options for shifting the fixed costs of the electricity system between consumers, for changing energy taxation to reduce prices and for evaluating systemic trade-offs between system cost and other characteristics, such as sustainability and reliability. We also estimate the quantitative effects of shifting costs between consumers and reducing taxes on electricity. We set out four principles for pricing electricity fairly. Policy interventions in the electricity system should not seek to achieve broader economic objectives at the expense of energy-policy goals. Consumer prices should incentivise efficient system operation. Carbon emissions should be priced in. The fixed costs of the electricity system should be primarily recovered from inelastic consumption. European policymakers should develop transparent analytical tools to assess the distributional effects of electricity-policy interventions. Lessons should be learned from the energy crisis, during which EU and national policies attempted to shield consumers from price impacts, and these lessons should form the basis of ongoing efforts to reduce prices. EU guidelines for electricity cost recovery should be established, following fundamental economic principles, and could form a policy toolbox for national governments to reduce energy prices. Finally, the long-term strategic goal of deeper physical and institutional integration of the European electricity should be pursued to structurally reduce electricity prices.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Electricity, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

616. Building coalitions for climate transition and nature restoration

Author:: Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Global climate and biodiversity outcomes will largely be determined in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). We propose a four-pillar strategy to support climate and nature preservation in line with the economic interests of both developing and advanced countries. This would move beyond voluntary pledges to embed climate and nature objectives into the structures of trade, finance and industrial policy, creating a self-reinforcing system of cooperation and reducing the net costs of the green transition. Under Pillar 1, a coalition of advanced and developing countries would link tiered carbon pricing with a common carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Pillar 2 would create a climate-finance coalition to decarbonise the power sectors of developing countries. Pillar 3 would involve partnerships to develop clean energy-intensive industrial production stages in developing economies with rich renewables endowments; these would feed into the supply chains of the European Union and other energy-importing advanced economies. Pillar 4 would redesign markets to create scalable and credible mechanisms to fund carbon removals. Technology-based removals can be incentivised through the introduction of clean-up certificates into the EU emissions trading system, while nature-based removals would require improved market design centred on a new asset class: nature shares. The four pillars reinforce each other. A multi-country CBAM and carbon pricing coalition (Pillar 1) would reduce the cost of financing power sector decarbonisation (Pillar 2). Linking EMDE membership of the CBAM and carbon-pricing coalition to financial support for the decarbonisation of power sectors would also make it more attractive for EMDEs to adopt carbon prices. Decarbonisation of power sectors (Pillar 2) would be a precondition for developing clean, highly energy-intensive industry in renewables-rich EMDEs (Pillar 3). The Pillar 1 coalition should include the EU, China and as many other countries as possible. Advanced countries and China could underpin the Pillar 2 financier coalition. Pillar 3 would involve the EU and potentially other energy-poor advanced countries, along with EMDEs that are richly endowed with renewables. Pillar 4 would include the main custodians of the planet’s natural capital. Enabling these coalitions will require EU leadership.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Industrial Policy, Trade, Sustainability, Decarbonization, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe

617. Reconciling the European Union’s clean industrialisation goals with those of the Global South

Author:: Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Clean industrialisation is a political and economic priority for the European Union. For it to work, affordable clean energy is needed. However, producing this energy in Europe is constrained by limited renewable energy endowments (sunshine and wind) and land availability, while the transportation costs for imported clean energy (in the form of electricity or hydrogen) are much higher than for fossil fuels. An alternative way to fuel Europe’s clean industrial sector would to import energy-intensive primary tradeable products such as ammonia, methanol and reduced iron. We estimate that more than ten percent of total future EU clean energy demand will be met by such products. Public policy in Europe should aim to facilitate trade in energy-intensive intermediate inputs, which are cheaper to import than energy directly. Imports of these inputs could boost the competitiveness of downstream stages in the energy-intensive value chain (such as steel production). By lowering overall energy demand and thus electricity prices, such imports would also raise EU competitiveness more broadly. In many cases, they would replace imports of less energy-intensive commodities such as iron ore, therefore not adding to Europe’s overall import dependency. The direct economic impact in terms of jobs and value added that would be offshored is not substantial. The international benefit of such a strategy would be that it would embed third countries – especially emerging and developing economies – into clean industrial value chains. Stable European demand can help such countries develop export-driven, clean industrial strategies. Politically, this could be an important incentive that could offset the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism. Governments should therefore not use taxpayer money to fight the relocation of energy-intensive and tradeable primary products, beyond some minimum threshold that is desirable for economic security and innovation reasons. Meanwhile, ongoing negotiations with third countries to establish Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships should put trade in energy-intensive clean products at the core of new international clean supply chains.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, European Union, Global South, Industrialization, Decarbonization, Energy, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Europe

618. The time is right to make a European Union-India trade deal happen

Author:: Ignacio Garcia Bercero and André Sapir
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Nearly 20 years have passed since the EU and India started negotiations on a bilateral trade and investment agreement. After seven years of intense negotiations, the process stalled in 2014, primarily because of the failure of the respective political leaders to make difficult choices. Talks restarted in 2022 and now offer a reasonable chance of delivering a bilateral free-trade agreement “within the course of the year”, as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared in February 2025. The EU and India both rank among the world’s five largest economies in terms of GDP. Yet much separates the two economically. India’s GDP per capita is much lower than the EU’s, and its level of trade and investment protection is much higher than that of the EU or even its middle-income peers. However, India has recently enjoyed faster growth than any other large economy, including China. The EU and India are also being brought closer by the global geopolitical situation and their common pursuit of strategic autonomy and economic security. The two sides should learn the lessons from past failure and reach an ambitious agreement in areas that previously proved difficult, such as goods tariffs and services, and in new areas, such as climate protection, that could again derail the revived negotiation if not managed well. A deal by the end of 2025 will have economic benefits and will also reinforce the broader economic and political links between the EU and India at a time when world affairs are under severe strain. An ambitious agreement could also help reconstruct a rules-based global order for the new multipolar world. This is particularly important for the multilateral trade and climate regimes, where converging EU and Indian positions could have a major influence on the redesign of international institutions and rules.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Governance, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

619. Evolving Partnerships: U.S. Alliances and the Pacific Islands

Author:: Grace Price
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: Pacific Island countries (PICs) have long attracted development and security assistance from the region’s traditional partner states—the United States, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. However, the Pacific has received renewed attention from them as China actively vies for influence. Despite increased engagement, the PICs are still turning to China in pursuit of their development and security needs. This report will map out efforts the United States, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand are taking to increase influence, obstacles that are hindering effective cooperation in the Pacific, and recommendations for improving their collective engagement with the PICs.
Topic:: Security, Development, Partnerships, and Alliance
Political Geography:: North America, United States of America, and Pacific Islands

620. Charting a Path in the Uncharted Domain

Author:: Jennifer Hong Whetsell
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: The Republic of Korea (ROK, or South Korea) is rising as a prominent player in the space domain. The size of its space program makes its current position as an emerging space power even more impressive and promising. The United States, one of South Korea's closest political and defense allies, and South Korea share a considerable history in space cooperation since the late 1980s. Despite the long history of collaboration between the United States and South Korea, fundamental differences have slowed their progress toward a deeper and more meaningful cooperation in this domain. As space becomes an integral aspect of national security and a coveted frontier for scientific endeavor and exploration, the two capitals have much to gain through enhanced cooperation. “Charting a Path in the Uncharted Domain” examines the landscape of South Korea’s space ecosystem and provides a broad overview of its accomplishments and challenges in the space domain. It then highlights significant milestones of space cooperation between Washington and Seoul and analyzes the cooperative landscape, noting areas of differences and opportunities for enhanced cooperation. The paper then presents recommendations for U.S. and ROK policymakers to help overcome those barriers and strengthen their cooperation in the space domain.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Space
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

621. Terrorism and Immigration: 50 Years of Foreign-Born Terrorism on US Soil, 1975–2024

Author:: Alex Nowrasteh
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Terrorism is a hazard to human life and material prosperity that should be addressed in a sensible manner whereby the benefits of government actions taken to contain it outweigh the costs. Whether policies are sensible depends on the risks that terrorism poses, the harms that terrorism inflicts, and the costs of anti-terrorism policies. This risk analysis of foreign-born terrorism is a crucial step in evaluating anti-terrorism policies related to immigration.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, and Immigration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

622. Rethinking Social Security from a Global Perspective: What Congress Can Learn from the Experiences of Canada, Germany, New Zealand, and Sweden

Author:: Romina Boccia and Ivane Nachkebia
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Social Security is projected to reach technical insolvency by 2033, threatening retirees with automatic 23 percent benefit cuts as the program will be unable to pay full benefits on time. The program’s looming trust-fund insolvency creates a legislative forcing mechanism and thus presents an opportunity to reimagine how Social Security could work. Policymakers should consider fundamentally rethinking the program’s structure and transform it into a system that ensures seniors are protected from poverty when they can no longer work, while also freeing up resources for younger workers to save more on their own. With Social Security running large and rising cash-flow deficits since 2010, and given a political desire to protect most current retirees from being affected by benefit reductions, Congress should act now to stabilize the system—not procrastinate any longer, which only ensures that inevitable changes will be more drastic and economically harmful. The longer Congress waits, the more people will be locked into the current unsustainable system, and the higher the burden will be on younger generations to finance it.
Topic:: Poverty, Reform, Fiscal Policy, Social Security, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Canada, Germany, Sweden, and New Zealand

623. The Misleading Panic over Misinformation

Author:: David Inserra
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Misinformation is widely viewed as one of the most serious challenges facing modern societies. Together with the related terms “disinformation” and “malinformation,” nearly every present-day issue involves claims of misinformation. As a result, a host of actors have dedicated significant amounts of resources to the problem of incorrect or misleading information, especially online.
Topic:: Regulation, Freedom of Expression, and Misinformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

624. Aimless Rivalry: The Futility of US–China Competition in the Middle East

Author:: Jon Hoffman
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Fear in Washington over China’s expanding regional presence is quickly becoming a new rationale for an expansive US foreign policy in the Middle East. But China remains an opportunistic actor in the Middle East, driven by practical needs, not by aspirations to dominate the region. Beijing lacks the ability and desire to assume a dominant position in the Middle East, and its ability to jeopardize US regional interests is limited.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

625. Net assessments for Australia

Author:: Andrew Carr
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Established in 2023 in the Australian Department of Defence, net assessments will play an increasingly important role in shaping the future of the Australian Defence Force, disciplining long-term capability decisions to a series of key scenarios of concern. With Australia’s security requirements ranging across many more domains — and dependent on careful analysis of trends and networks beyond its shores — four additional Directorates of Net Assessment should be established, in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Department of Home Affairs, Treasury, and the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. Net assessments will help Ministers better understand key strategic problems as well as potential conflict scenarios and outcomes, assisting them to make effective decisions to improve Australia’s competitive position and prepare the nation for any conflict in its region.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Training, and Assessment
Political Geography:: Australia

626. Trapped in debt: China’s role in Laos’ economic crisis

Author:: Keith Barney, Roland Rajah, and Mariza Cooray
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Laos is trapped in a severe debt crisis with no resolution in sight, threatening a decade of economic and social malaise. Recent global shocks were key triggers. Yet a crisis was almost inevitable, driven by poor planning and over-investment in the domestic energy sector, financed mostly by Chinese loans and exacerbated by broader fiscal and governance problems. Exiting the crisis will require China to provide substantial debt relief. However, the politics appear unfavourable, as neither side wants to admit failure and accept the consequences. Whether by design or neglect, China has created a debt trap in Laos. The crisis illustrates some of the most troubling pathologies of Chinese lending under the Belt and Road Initiative, and its unwillingness to provide sufficient debt relief, despite the clear-cut need.
Topic:: Debt, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Economic Crisis, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Laos

627. Hedging bets: Southeast Asia’s approach to China’s aid

Author:: Alexandre Dayant and Grace Stanhope
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Southeast Asian states with acute development needs and constrained access to development financing — Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar — are the most reliant on China. By contrast, lower-middle income countries with more diversified foreign relations — the Philippines and Vietnam — have become far more restrained in accepting Chinese largesse over the last decade. Upper-middle income countries with only moderate development needs — Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand — appear to be playing the field of development partners the most opportunistically and politically. Amid weakening demand for Chinese development financing in Southeast Asia, Beijing is recalibrating its offering, transitioning to fewer, smaller, and more targeted projects. In 2022, China implemented $3 billion in development financing in the region, a sharp drop from more than $9 billion in 2015. However, Southeast Asia’s success in reshaping their development ties with China could be undone if Western cuts to development budgets lead to a drastic reduction in financing to the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: China, Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia, Southeast Asia, Laos, and Myanmar

628. The future of Indonesia’s green industrial policy

Author:: Robert Walker and Hilman Palaon
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Indonesia now supplies more than half of the world’s nickel. Under its green industrial policy, it has also become a leading destination for foreign investment in critical minerals, electric vehicles (EVs), and the battery supply chain. While this strategy has offered some concentrated economic gains, rapid industry expansion has also been costly. Nickel processing has had damaging environmental, labour, and governance impacts, and has increased reliance on Chinese investment, technology, and demand, which presents vulnerabilities. Indonesia can strengthen its industrial policy by improving environmental and labour standards in the nickel industry, fostering a more competitive and export-oriented EV industry, and diversifying trade and investment partners.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Industry, Green Economy, Nickel, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia

629. Global Futures Bulletin: The BRICS and the Decarbonization and Biodiversity Protection Challenges

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The world faces an unprecedented convergence of environmental crises – climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss – that collectively threaten the planet’s ecological balance and humanity’s future. Reversing the Triple Planetary Crisis necessitates urgent and coordinated action across all sectors and countries, accelerating the transition to low-carbon economies while protecting biodiversity are key challenges for the coming years. Countries that have joined the BRICS in its inception (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are increasingly an important geopolitical force in current global politics, and their individual and collective action is key to the success of concerted global action. The group’s recent expansion – BRICS+ includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Indonesia joining in 2025 and Saudi Arabia finally formalizing its membership – offers an opportunity to boost the role of their New Development Bank (NDB) in bridging climate, biodiversity, and development finance, and aim for greater policy coherence for concerted global action across these agendas. Combined, BRICS countries are not only biodiversity and energy-rich but also contribute to a large share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This Strategic Paper examines the role of the expanded BRICS+ and explores whether and how this “mini-multilateral” grouping, with its considerable human and technological capacity, can address two major global challenges: accelerating decarbonization and protecting biological diversity. The discussion is framed around the opportunities and challenges faced by the member countries to increase their ambitions and become leading voices in these agendas – not only for BRICS countries (some of which are among the most biodiverse in the world) but also for the wider international community. Without a strong commitment by BRICS countries (individually and as a group) the world will fail to accelerate action on decarbonization and biodiversity protection.
Topic:: Climate Change, Pollution, BRICS, Decarbonization, Biodiversity, and Minilateralism
Political Geography:: Russia, China, South Africa, Brazil, and Global Focus

630. Somali Federal and State Interior Ministries: How to Enable Popular Participation in Transitional Justice

Author:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: After years of conflict and instability, Somalia is entering a period where transitional justice is possible. Three decades of experience in Africa shows that transitional justice processes are more likely to be effective if they are rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. While the Somali government has not yet launched a truth commission, prosecutions, reparations or other formal mechanisms usually associated with dealing with the past, different types of measures have emerged in the country that are precursors to – or even themselves forms of – transitional justice. Drawing lessons from formal, state-led measures like the National Reconciliation Framework and non-formal, civil society-led measures like the Peace and Development Forum, this policy brief provides actionable guidance for the Ministry of Interior, Federal Affairs and Reconciliation and the Interior Ministries of federal member states on how to enable popular participation for a locally relevant and sustainable national transitional justice process.
Topic:: Government, Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

631. Enabling Popular Participation in Transitional Justice in Somalia

Author:: Farhia Mohamud
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: Given the country's increasing stability, transitional justice has become an option for addressing the violence and gross human rights violations that have marked Somalia's history from the colonial period to the present. Experiences in other African countries over the past three decades show that transitional justice processes are more likely to be effective if they are rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. This study explores emerging measures linked to transitional justice in Somalia, which are rooted in local practices and build on local resources, to provide recommendations to state authorities, civil society, and multilateral actors, including the African Union, for enabling popular participation and thereby a more contextual, inclusive, and effective transitional justice process in Somalia. Based on extensive fieldwork with 114 participants in Mogadishu, Dhuusamreeb, and Gaalkacyo, the study examines formal and non-formal measures already occurring in Somalia to identify ways in which future transitional justice processes could enable people's agency over the goals, forms, and outcomes of measures dealing with the past.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, Political stability, Transitional Justice, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

632. The African Union and Member States: How to Mainstream Participation in Transitional Justice

Author:: Mary Izobo
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: The 2019 African Union Transitional Justice Policy (AUTJP) advances a unique transitional justice approach based on the principles of national and local ownership, African shared values, inclusiveness, equity and non-discrimination. These principles highlight the importance of popular participation and provide a framework for mainstreaming participation in a meaningful way. This policy brief outlines how the AUTJP provides for participation, explains the value of participation, and identifies key challenges, before providing actionable recommendations for the African Union and its member states on partnering with a wide range of stakeholders to enhance popular participation. By doing so, the AU and member states can ensure that transitional justice is a transformative tool for sustainable peace, reconciliation and good governance at the regional and national levels in Africa.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, African Union, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa

633. The Gambian Government and Political Participation in Post-TRRC Transitional Justice

Author:: Jasmina Brankovic, Simon Robins, Fatou Baldeh, and Lena Houma
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: The government of Gambia has committed to implementing the recommendations of the Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Commission (TRRC) through further transitional justice measures. Three decades of experience in Africa show that a transitional justice process as a whole is more likely to be effective if it is rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. This policy brief is written for the Steering Committee leading the implementation process and for the Ministry of Justice and other government ministries and agencies supporting implementation efforts. The brief provides actionable guidance on how to ensure post-TRRC transitional justice measures – including reparations, justice and accountability, and institutional reforms – are inclusive and participatory. In line with the African Union Transitional Justice Policy, the brief emphasizes the value of both formal, state-run measures and non-formal, civil society-led measures, especially in combination. It is based on lessons from the TRRC's efforts to promote participation, as well as those of non-formal measures like the Listening Circles created by Women in Liberation and Leadership.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Gambia

634. Transitional Justice in the Gambia: Enabling Popular Participation

Author:: Fatou Baldeh and Lena Houma
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This research report examines the level of popular participation in The Gambia's transitional justice process to date and provides recommendations for ensuring more meaningful participation going forward. It begins with an overview of both formal and non-formal measures in The Gambia, before analyzing in detail the dynamics of participation in the formal measure of the Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Commission (TRRC) and in non-formal measures, particularly Listening Circles established by Women in Liberation and Leadership. The study finds that while the TRRC sought to ensure broad-based participation and to gather evidence from a range of victims/survivors and perpetrators, it fell short in areas like sexual and gender-based violence. The sensitive nature of such crimes in the context of existing socio-cultural norms and practices hindered victims/survivors from approaching the commission. Additionally, the TRRC struggled to reach communities where Jammeh has strong support, with the commission being construed as part of a political agenda. Non-formal measures, run by civil society, filled some of the TRRC's gaps and contributed to wider participation of citizens in the process. To promote more meaningful participation in and across both formal and non-formal measures, we provide actionable recommendations for state actors, particularly state representatives on the Steering Committee leading the TRRC recommendations implementation process and the Ministry of Justice and other government ministries and agencies supporting implementation efforts. We also provide recommendations for multilateral actors supporting transitional justice in The Gambia, including international and regional organizations such as the African Union and the United Nations, state donor bodies, private foundations, and international nongovernmental organizations.
Topic:: Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Gambia

635. Mainstreaming Popular Participation in Transitional Justice: Lessons from Multilateral, State and Civil Society Actors in the Gambia and Somalia

Author:: Jasmina Brankovic and Simon Robins
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: Statements on the need for popular participation are increasingly common in international and national transitional justice policy and literature, yet little guidance is available on how to put participation into practice. Based on empirical research in The Gambia and Somalia and with multilateral actors supporting transitional justice in Africa, this research report examines what participation looks like and provides actionable recommendations for enabling participation in a more meaningful way. The findings are relevant for transitional justice policy makers, practitioners and scholars on the continent and beyond. The study builds on the African Union Transitional Justice Policy's provisions for community participation and acknowledgement of both formal, state-run measures and non-formal, civil society-led measures as transitional justice. The findings show that meaningful participation requires four main commitments on the part of multilateral, state and civil society actors: 1) mainstreaming, 2) localisation, 3) decentralisation, and 4) recognition of non-formal measures. Participatory transitional justice results in more inclusive, contextualised and effective processes, with broad-based buy-in for sustainable outcomes.
Topic:: Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Multilateralism, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa, Somalia, and Gambia

636. Breaking the Silence: The Fight Against Gender-Based Violence in Tanzania

Author:: Wilifrida S. John
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the ongoing issue of gender-based violence (GBV) in Tanzania, despite the country's ratification of comprehensive international, regional, and national legal frameworks. It explores how harmful cultural practices such as unyago, vigodoro, and chagulaga; alongside entrenched patriarchal norms and contradictions between statutory and customary laws, continue to undermine protections for women and girls. The brief argues that legal commitments alone are insufficient without effective enforcement, structural reform, public education, and stronger institutional accountability. It offers evidence-based recommendations to better align the legal system with cultural change, survivor-centred support services, and coordinated, cross-sector responses. By situating Tanzania's case within the wider Sub-Saharan African context, it illustrates how legal pluralism, and socio-cultural dynamics contribute to the persistence of GBV across the region.
Topic:: Education, Culture, Reform, Women, Gender Based Violence, and Girls
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

637. The Gendered Impact of Social Norms on Financial Access and Capital Misallocation

Author:: Arti Grover and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper provides evidence on the nature of financial constraints faced by women entrepreneurs, especially in contexts of stringent social norms. Using micro-data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for 61 countries, the analysis shows that formal firms managed by women do not face credit constraints on the extensive margin. They are equally likely to apply for credit as their male counterparts and experience lower rates of credit rejection, with a higher likelihood of opening credit lines. However, on the intensive margin, firms managed by women receive lower credit amounts, indicating signs of credit constraints. This disparity in access to credit cannot be explained by gender differences in risk profiles, profitability, or productivity. However, firms managed by women have lower sales per worker, suggesting challenges in accessing product and labor markets. The paper finds suggestive evidence of capital misallocation based on gender, particularly in countries with more restrictive gender and cultural norms. Firms managed by women demonstrate a 15 percent higher average return on capital compared to firms managed by men, indicating the potential benefits of increased access to credit for women-led businesses. These findings emphasize the importance of addressing gender-specific constraints to accessing finance and promoting gender-inclusive policies to enhance firm growth and reduce capital misallocation.
Topic:: Culture, Fiscal Policy, Credit, Capital, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:: Global Focus

638. Women Political Leaders as Agents of Environmental Change

Author:: Inés Berniell, Mariana Marchionni, Julian Pedrazzi, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper explores how female political leaders impact environmental outcomes and climate change policy actions using data from mixed-gender mayoral races in Brazil. Using a Regression Discontinuity design we find that, compared to male mayors, female mayors significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This effect is driven by a reduction in emissions intensity (CO2e/GDP) in the Land Use sector, without changes in municipal economic activity. Part of the reduction in emissions in the Land Use sector is attributable to a decline in deforestation. We examine potential mechanisms that could explain the positive environmental impact of narrowly electing a female mayor over a male counterpart and find that in Amazon municipalities, female elected mayors allocate more space to the environment in their government proposals and are more likely to invest in environmental initiatives. Differences in the enforcement of environmental regulations do not explain the results.
Topic:: Climate Change, Politics, Elections, Women, Leadership, and Gender
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, and Amazon Basin

639. Childhood Welfare Exposure and Economic Outcomes for Adult Daughters and Sons

Author:: Robert Paul Hartley, Carlos Lamarche, and James P. Ziliak
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We investigate how length of time on welfare during childhood affects economic outcomes in early adulthood. Using intergenerationally linked mother-child pairs from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we adopt a nonlinear difference-in-differences framework using the 1990s welfare reform to estimate average and quantile treatment effects on intensity of welfare use and earnings in adulthood. The causal estimates indicate that additional childhood welfare exposure leads to more adulthood years on the broader safety net for both daughters and sons, yet this positive relationship only applies below moderate levels of adult welfare participation and reverses at greater levels of dependence. Increasing childhood welfare exposure implies lower earnings in adulthood for daughters, however we find no evidence that it depresses adult sons’ earnings. Both daughters and sons exhibit some wage penalty from childhood welfare exposure, yet only daughters are penalized through hours worked in the labor market.
Topic:: Economics, Income Inequality, Welfare, Labor Market, Gender, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:: Global Focus

640. Slowing Down, Heating Up: Economic Deceleration and Social Discontent in Latin America

Author:: Iván Albina, Jessica Bracco, Leonardo Gasparini, and Luis Laguinge
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: There have been widespread public expressions of discontent throughout Latin America since the early 2010s. We exploit harmonized microdata from national household surveys covering nearly all Latin American countries to explore potential sources of discontent driven by income changes along the income distribution. We also estimate fixed-effects models that link discontent measures to changes in household incomes. Our results suggest that discontent may stem less from absolute economic performance during the 2010s than from the significant deceleration relative to the previous decade.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Income, Discontent, and Deceleration
Political Geography:: Latin America

641. Energy poverty on the flip side of energy subsidies

Author:: Julian Puig and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the relationship between energy subsidies and energy poverty (EP). Understanding this relationship is important because subsidies are often justified from an equity perspective to protect the most vulnerable households. Argentina, which has subsidized residential energy consumption since the early 2000s, is used as the case study. Since then, the energy subsidy policy has experienced two well-defined phases: massive and universal subsidies until 2015, followed by an attempt at reduction and targeting. This context, combined with notable regional disparities -including variations in income levels, climatic conditions, energy prices, and residential energy consumption patterns (e.g., electricity vs. piped gas)- makes this case study particularly compelling. EP is analyzed both unidimensionally and multidimensionally. Under both measures, EP follows a U-shaped pattern that reflects the phases of energy subsidies: a significant decrease between 2005 and 2013, followed by a considerable increase by 2018. The paper also highlights the key role of regional disparities which is crucial for interpreting the results beyond the Argentine case. Based on the findings, the paper contributes with globally relevant insights on the link between energy subsidy policies and EP.
Topic:: Poverty, Gas, Electricity, Subsidies, and Energy
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

642. Effective community mobilization: evidence from Mali

Author:: Maria Laura Alzúa, Juan Camilo Cardenas, and Habiba Djebbari
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Experts argue that the adoption of healthy sanitation practices, such as hand washing and latrine use, requires focusing on the entire community rather than individual behaviors. According to this view, one limiting factor in ending open defecation lies in the capacity of the community to collectively act toward this goal. Each member of a community bears the private cost of contributing by washing hands and using latrines, but the benefits through better health outcomes depend on whether other community members also opt out of open defecation. We rely on a community-based intervention carried out in Mali as an illustrative example (Community-Led Total Sanitation or CLTS). Using a series of experiments conducted in 121 villages and designed to measure the willingness of community members to contribute to a local public good, we investigate the process of participation in a collective action problem setting. Our focus is on two types of activities: (1) gathering of community members to encourage public discussion of the collective action problem, and (2) facilitation by a community champion of the adoption of individual actions to attain the socially preferred outcome. In games, communication helps raise public good provision, and both open discussion and facilitated ones have the same impact. When a community member facilitates a discussion after an open discussion session, public good contributions increase, but there are no gains from opening up the discussion after a facilitated session. Community members who choose to contribute in the no-communication treatment are not better facilitators than those who choose not to contribute
Topic:: Development, Sanitation, Behavior, Public Goods, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

643. Hard Times, Hard Attitudes? The Effect of Economic Downturns on Gender Norms

Author:: Inés Berniell, Leonardo Gasparini, Mariana Marchionni, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the impact of economic fluctuations on social norms, specifically exploring the link between changes in unemployment and shifts in attitudes toward gender roles in the labor market. The results are not immediately obvious, as the literature suggests several potential mechanisms with conflicting outcomes. Using microdata from the World Values Survey for a panel of 103 countries that cover close to 90% of the world population, we estimate individual-level probability models of agreement with traditional gender roles over the period 1995 to 2021, including country and year fixed effects. We find that an increase in unemployment is associated to more conservative views about gender roles in the labor market. This result is remarkably robust across different groups and specifications. We also find that some contextual factors matter. In particular, the link between higher unemployment and more conservative views on gender roles is stronger in countries with, on average, higher gender inequality and lower female labor force participation. Overall, this study contributes to a growing body of research on the complex relationship between economic conditions, gender norms, and social change.
Topic:: Economics, Unemployment, Attitudes, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:: Global Focus

644. Minimum Wages and Skill Premiums: Evidence for Latin America

Author:: Lucía Ramírez Leira, Octavio Bertín, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the effect of the minimum wage on skill premiums in Latin America over the period 1997–2019. The canonical labor market model is extended to include the role of the minimum wage, following the approach proposed by Vogel (2023). Skill premiums are estimated through Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) regressions using harmonized household survey microdata from 14 Latin American countries. Results suggest that increases in the minimum wage are associated with reductions in the skill premium between workers with and without higher education, but do not appear to have a significant effect on the gap between workers with medium and low levels of education. The largest effect of the minimum wage is observed for workers with higher levels of labor market experience. These findings contribute to recent evidence highlighting the role of labor institutions as one of the main drivers of the reduction in inequality in Latin America since the early 2000s.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Skilled Labor, Minimum Wage, and Wages
Political Geography:: Latin America

645. The Future of Work(ers) in the Age of Technological Revolution

Author:: Andrés César
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This chapter reviews key literature on the determinants and implications of technological change associated with the Third and Fourth Industrial Revolutions, which have spread globally since the late 20th century, and presents descriptive evidence. The main conclusion is that while technological progress has not significantly threatened overall employment opportunities, it has clearly contributed to rising income inequality. Consequently, a future devoid of employment is not anticipated, although the prospects for equality remain uncertain. I argue that to maximize the benefits of technological advancement, education must evolve in tandem with technology, equipping individuals to work alongside new innovations throughout their lives. This would enable workers to fully leverage automation of routine tasks and augmentation of abstract and cognitive tasks, fostering teamwork, problem-solving, flexibility, creativity, and social intelligence. Furthermore, productivity growth driven by technological progress is likely to increase demand for both traditional and new goods and services, generate income gains that increase demand for quality, accelerate structural change, and exert pressure on resource utilization.
Topic:: Education, Science and Technology, Income Distribution, Jobs, Technological Revolution, and Resource Utilization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

646. Climate Change Budget Compliance Assessment Report

Author:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This report presents a compliance assessment of Uganda’s national budget for Financial Year (FY) 2024/25, evaluating the budget’s alignment with climate change priorities that are outlined in the Third National Development Plan (NDP III). The assessment focuses on thirteen (13) priority programmes, selected for their climate change vulnerability, strategic importance, and potential to contribute to climate resilience and low-carbon development. With the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) already approved, this analysis provides insights into the country’s progress with climate-change-sensitive development programming and action, while highlighting gaps in climate finance integration. This effort should inform more robust and inclusive planning for the future. Climate change remains one of the most pressing and persistent global development challenges. It increasingly impacts people’s livelihoods, and its effects are especially worse in vulnerable and least-prepared countries like Uganda. Climate change effects are far-reaching, contributing to environmental degradation, reduced agricultural productivity, health challenges, and disruption of livelihoods. These impacts not only threaten ecosystems and human well-being but also hinder the achievement of sustainable development and social equity, thereby deepening social exclusion. As the climate crisis intensifies, urgent and coordinated global, regional, and national action becomes critical. Effective and timely mitigation and adaptation responses are necessary to minimize harm and contribute meaningfully to the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). On the other hand, delayed or no action on climate change is expected to result in more severe, costly, and irreversible consequences for both natural and human systems. Uganda’s long-term development frameworks, including the Vision 2040, the Third National Development Plan (NDPIII), and various sectoral policies and plans, recognize climate change as a major threat to socio-economic transformation and sustainable development. These frameworks emphasize the need for substantial investments in climateresilient development. The success of Uganda’s ambitions for inclusive growth largely hinges on the effective integration of climate action across all programmes of the country’s development plans, and adequate allocation of resources to finance climate interventions. TThe NDP III (2020/21–2024/25), now in its final implementation year, integrates climate change priorities across all its twenty (20) programmes. It specifies strategic interventions and performance targets, which are reflectedinthePlan’sResultsFrameworkandProgrammeImplementation Action Plans (PIAPs). This was intended to guide the national budgeting process, ensuring budget alignment with climate-resilient development goals. The goal of this assessment is to ascertain the extent to which the national budget of FY 2024/2025 and Budget Framework Paper (BFP) of 2025/2026 comply with planned climate change interventions under NDP III and NDP IV. The assessment involved selection of Programmes that are either most vulnerable to climate change, or have highest potential to contribute to climate change via their high greenhouse gas emission intensity. This selection was informed by Uganda’s National Climate Change priority areas captured in the country’s revised/updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 2022) and the Uganda Green Growth Development Strategy (UGGDS) 2017-2030. This programme selection was followed by a review and analysis of national planning and budgeting documents, focusing on: (i) adaptation and resilience building; and (ii) mitigation or reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Budget, Compliance, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

647. What to expect from the UK-EU Summit

Author:: Jannike Wachowiak, Joël Reland, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The first leader level post-Brexit UK-EU summit will take place on Monday 19 May. The government has stated its desire to strengthen the ‘strategic alliance’ between the UK and the EU, to deepen relations on security and to tear down barriers to trade. Not all of this will be achieved. However, the meeting will mark a significant first step towards building on existing agreements and a test of whether the two sides are committed to matching increasingly warm words with actions. This insight paper explains the key areas to keep an eye out for during the summit and the potential impact they might have on the future of UK-EU relations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

648. Regulating after Brexit

Author:: Joël Reland
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Deregulation was at the heart of the Conservative vision of Brexit. Boris Johnson negotiated a Brexit deal which gave Great Britain significant freedom to diverge from EU rules and regulations, promising to make the UK ‘the best regulated economy in the world’. This report examines the extent to which the UK has made use of its ‘Brexit freedoms’, finding that there has been very little meaningful divergence from the EU. It identifies the key reasons for this lack of divergence: trade frictions, political complexities, limited state capacity and a lack of strategy. The report then analyses the change in regulatory approach under the current government. It finds that, unlike its predecessors, this government is willing to align with EU rules to remove existing trade barriers and to avoid new ‘passive divergence’ where EU rule changes create divergence by default. Yet, at the same time, the government is keen to use deregulation to boost growth and to build trade ties with the United States. This report identifies a potential conflict between these aims and its EU regulatory agenda, and argues that the UK needs a clear strategy to ensure its multiple regulatory objectives do not undermine one another.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, Economy, Brexit, and Deregulation
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

649. Choices and challenges for UK foreign policy

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The new British government has come to power at a time of profound geopolitical, economic, ecological, and technological transformation. A major state-on-state war continues to rage in continental Europe. In Africa, the Sudanese civil war has created the largest humanitarian crisis on record. While the recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire brings hope for wider de-escalation in the Middle East, the consequences of the 7 October 2023 attack and subsequent destruction in Gaza will be with us for the foreseeable future. To all of this, the inauguration of President Trump adds a layer of uncertainty. Meanwhile the West struggles to decide how best to deal with the changing nature of competition with China, with rapid technological and ecological change, and with a disparate Global South increasingly hedging its bets in terms of choosing between the West and assertive challengers to the existing order. Confronted with such a complex environment, there is more need than ever for timely, research-based evidence on which to base future policy choices. That is precisely what this report seeks to do. We asked leading experts on contemporary world politics each to analyse the major challenges confronting the UK in a key policy area, to summarise existing UK approaches, and to lay out the key choices facing the government today.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

650. The Brexit Files: from referendum to reset

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: For the past decade, UK in a Changing Europe has provided impartial, research-based analysis on a number of issues, but most particularly on UK-EU relations. Since before the 2015 General Election, we have evaluated those relations, traced and explained the tortuous Brexit process, and attempted to assess the impact that Brexit has had on the country. This report brings together some of the best scholars working on these issues to consider a number of these questions on the 5th anniversary of the UK ceasing to be a member of the European Union.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

651. Peripheral Growth Models and the Global Economy: A Second Image IPE Perspective

Author:: Michael Schedelik and Andreas Nölke
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: The paper departs from the perspective of “second image IPE,” i.e., the need to closely combine Comparative Political Economy (CPE) and International Political Economy (IPE). More specifically, it focuses on the observation that the growth models in the (former) periphery of the global economy (a typical focus of CPE) are strongly shaped by their interdependencies with the structural transformations of the global economy (as studied by IPE). At the same time, the changes within the growth models of large economies in this periphery (CPE) can have a major impact on global interdependencies (IPE). For example, the rise of China as a major player in world trade and investment (“China shock”) has had a substantial impact on growth models elsewhere in the periphery, via import penetration, direct investment, and export demand. This paper shows how these growth models shape (and are shaped through) international interdependencies by analyzing (1) the effects of global commodity cycles on the growth experience of several major exporters of primary resources, such as Brazil or Indonesia, during and after the recent commodity boom. (2) We further elaborate on the effects of global financial cycles on peripheral countries, particularly those pursuing debt-led growth models, such as South Africa or Turkey. (3) We finally point to the role of global production chains and foreign direct investment for FDI-led growth models of manufacturing exporters such as Thailand or Vietnam in South East Asia.
Topic:: Political Economy, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Economic Growth, Commodities, Emerging Economies, and Growth Models
Political Geography:: Global Focus

652. Shifting Paths? The Evolution of Southern European Growth Trajectories Between the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid Pandemic

Author:: Fabio Bulfone, Mischa Stratenwerth, and Arianna Tassinari
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: This paper traces the growth trajectories of the Southern European economies (Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) from the financial to the covid crisis. From a review of the comparative political economy literature focusing on Southern Europe, we derive three propositions regarding the growth profile, the development of high value-added services and manufacturing exports, and employment outcomes. To assess the accuracy of these propositions, we conduct growth decompositions based on import-adjusted demand components as well as on sectoral output and employment indicators. The data show that Southern European economies are similar in that export-led growth has not been sufficient to boost aggregate growth, stimulate high value-added services or manufacturing, reverse pro-cyclical employment declines, or create high-wage employment opportunities. But the Southern European economies also differ, both in terms of their sectoral growth profiles and their aggregate performance. In the second half of the decade, Portugal and Spain managed to combine domestic demand and exports to achieve stronger growth than Italy and Greece. Sectoral developments in Portugal and Spain (and to a lesser extent in Italy) tentatively suggest a potential “Iberian growth path” that is compatible with euro area constraints but ultimately peripheral. The paper concludes by considering the empirical and theoretical implications of these findings for the study of the Southern European model of capitalism.
Topic:: Political Economy, Economic Growth, Exports, and Austerity
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Southern Europe

653. Untrustworthy Authorities and Complicit Bankers: Unraveling Monetary Distrust in Argentina

Author:: Guadalupe Moreno
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Money, capitalist market societies’ paramount contract, relies on the belief in its enduring value. However, we still know surprisingly little about the social foundations that sustain that belief. How is our collective trust in the enduring value of money socially built, and what happens if people lose such trust? What if a society convinces itself that policymakers cannot guarantee that the value of money will persist over time? In this paper, I use Argentina as a monetary laboratory to study how almost eighty uninterrupted years of high inflation and successive currency crises led to a social trauma that crystalized in the emergence of a distrust narrative: a strong popular belief that neither the state nor the local financial system will be able to preserve the value of the national currency or the worth of savings over time. By analyzing the production and reproduction of this narrative and its long-lasting effects on the Argentine economy, I show how rooted distrust in a currency fosters a myriad of practices aimed at protecting savings, which impose severe limits on monetary governance. I emphasize that when state authorities lose control of collective expectations and negative monetary imaginaries take off, a vicious cycle unfolds in which instability, inflation, and devaluation reinforce each other.
Topic:: Civil Society, Financial Crisis, Governance, Central Bank, Money, and Trust
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

654. Neoliberalism’s True Heirs: What Late-Apartheid South Africa Can Teach Us About the Contemporary Far Right

Author:: Elizabeth Soer
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: How can we make sense of the resurgence of the far right across the world? From the re-election of Donald Trump to the flourishing of Hindu nationalism under Narendra Modi, right-wing politicians have undoubtedly grown in prominence over the last decade. There is a burgeoning literature on this topic as scholars attempt to understand whether it is a backlash against neoliberalism, a reactionary form of neoliberalism, or simply a cultural phenomenon produced by increased global connectivity. This paper contributes to the vibrant discussion by examining an ideal yet overlooked case of ethno-nationalist neoliberalism – apartheid South Africa in the 1980s. This case reveals neoliberalism’s relationship to colonialism and its contribution to the perpetuation of white rule. South Africa has served as a test case for neoliberal ideas about race and economics and can thus contribute broader insights on the topic. The paper argues that the contemporary far right is not a backlash against neoliberalism, but a robust continuation of it. It draws on a vast range of archival sources from the late-apartheid period as well as the writings of prominent neoliberal thinkers to support this argument.
Topic:: Apartheid, Neoliberalism, Far Right, and Ethnonationalism
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

655. Sanctuaries, Islands, and Deserts: A Typology of Regionalized Abortion Policy

Author:: Payton Gannon and Danielle Pullan
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: This paper elaborates a typology of regionalized abortion policy based on a comparative case study of Italy and the United States. Italy originally legalized abortion in 1978 and has seen little effort to modify the law since. Contrastingly, the United States’ abortion landscape has been in near constant flux since 1974, when, in Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court recognized a constitutional right to abortion. This became even more unstable in 2022 when the Supreme Court overruled Roe in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health and held there is no constitutional right to abortion. Despite their differences in national abortion policy, both Italy and the US have regionalized the implementation of their abortion policies. Italy’s law is national, but implementation is interpreted differently at the regional level. Since Dobbs, US states have proposed and passed many laws about abortion, creating even greater regional variation than before. We propose a typology of regionalized abortion access: “Sanctuaries” where abortion is most protected and available; “Islands” with liberal policies that are surrounded by more restrictive territories; and “Deserts” with minimal abortion access. Through qualitative analysis of policies, political activities, and firsthand accounts by abortion providers and advocates working in places of each type, we then highlight the long-term implications of each of these components of the typology, analyzing the ways that they impact abortion providers and patients.
Topic:: Human Rights, Health Care Policy, Abortion, and Regionalization
Political Geography:: Europe, Italy, North America, and United States of America

656. Lessons from West Germany's Cold War experience

Author:: Paul Williams
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: The Russian aggression against Ukraine is now more than three years old. A new US administration is implementing a radical approach to securing a ceasefire and appears poised to limit direct military assistance to Ukraine. Consequently, Europe now recognizes that it must approach this war in a decidedly different manner than might have been presumed only a few months ago. The past may offer hints to a path forward for Ukraine to survive and ultimately prevail against Russia. While the imminent threat of war hung over Europe during the Cold War, West Germany lived under the constant threat of Soviet aggression. Yet, through economic revival, strategic military growth and partnerships, and careful political maneuvering, West Germany not only outlasted its aggressor but laid the groundwork for long-term stability and prosperity. West Germany's experience during the Cold War offers valuable insights for Ukraine in its pursuit of enduring stability and prosperity amid external threats. This blog explores some of the lessons that may be drawn from West Germany across economic and military themes.
Topic:: Cold War, Economics, History, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and West Germany

657. Plunder by Paperwork: Land Use and Legal Manipulation in Russian-Occupied Ukrainian Territories

Author:: Kateryna Kyrychenko and Patricia Wiater
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: In war, land is more than terrain — it is power, memory, identity, and future. Nowhere is this clearer than in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine, where the battle is being waged not only with weapons but with registries, decrees, and legal manipulation. Russia’s strategy in Ukraine has not merely been to seize land — but to rewrite the law that governs it. Through reclassification, coerced registration, and demographic engineering, the occupying power is attempting to transform occupation into ownership — to fabricate a claim to sovereignty through legal means. Beneath a facade of administrative normalcy lies a systematic campaign of illegal appropriation — one that violates both international humanitarian law and human rights protections. This blog post outlines the legal framework governing land under occupation, examines how Russia has sought to subvert it, and explains why land law is now a frontline of resistance.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Law, Occupation, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

658. Russian Use of Rape as a Weapon of War in Ukraine

Author:: Paul Williams, Gregory P. Noone, and Sindija Beta
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: Numerous investigative reports into the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine since 2022 have documented extensive and shocking use of sexual and gender-based violence (“SGBV”) by Russian nationals against Ukrainian civilians, prisoners of war, and other detainees. Russia has long been responsible for a largely under-discussed and distressing amount of SGBV crimes, including rape. Russian SGBV atrocities have historically been especially brutal during World War II in Germany, as well as Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia. Focus has recently turned to the question of how Russia could be held accountable for its use of SGBV as a weapon of war in Ukraine. Various sources of international law provide prohibitions on the use of SGBV during armed conflict, and there have been successful examples of holding individual perpetrators accountable under international criminal law in past conflicts. As the Russian attacks on Ukraine continue unabated, it is appropriate to appraise the scale of SGBV committed, the international laws being breached, and the possible enforcement mechanisms.
Topic:: Gender Based Violence, Rape, Sexual Violence, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

659. Recognizing 2014: The Legal and Moral Imperative for Full Reparations for Russian Aggression

Author:: Kateryna Kyrychenko, Paul D. Williams, and Sindija Beta
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: Why are the earliest victims of Russia’s war in Ukraine — those targeted since 2014 — still excluded from reparations, when it was exactly the failure to respond to that initial aggression that directly enabled the full-scale invasion in 2022?
Topic:: Law, International Crime, Reparations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Aggression
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

660. Equity and Aspiration: Understanding East Londoners’ Views on Social Mobility and Careers in the Professions

Author:: Mile End Institute
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: This report sets out the findings of survey research which was conducted with a representative sample of East Londoners, asking a number of questions about careers in the professions – including about the desirability of working in these kinds of roles, and the trustworthiness and diversity of the professional workforce – about social mobility, and about the role of universities and other alternative education providers in all this.
Topic:: Education, Survey, Equity, Social Mobility, and Professions
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and East London

661. Politics, AI and the Future of the University

Author:: Tim Clement-Jones
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: In the latest in the ‪Mile End Institute's 'In Conversation’ series, we were joined by the former Lawyer and Liberal Democrat spokesperson on Science, Innovation and Technology, Tim Clement-Jones CBE. Lord Clement-Jones is a Liberal Democrat peer, an expert in AI and the digital economy and an educationalist. He joined the House of Lords in 1998 and is now one of the country’s leading authorities on the creative industries. He has been a key figure in legislative discussions of AI and emerging technologies, and published his book, Living with the Algorithm in 2024. Having just completed his final term as Chair of Queen Mary’s Council, Lord Clement-Jones was in conversation with Professor Elke Schwarz about his early life, his political career, his experience of university management and the challenge of AI.
Topic:: Education, Politics, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence, and Universities
Political Geography:: Global Focus

662. How to Replace 'First Past the Post'

Author:: Jess Garland, Rainbow Murray, Stephen Gethins, and Stijn van Kessel
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: In 1918, Parliament came within hours of abolishing First Past the Post. The system only survived because the two Houses disagreed on the system that should replace it. With the Bill on the brink of collapse, the question was postponed – a reprieve that has lasted for 107 years. In a recent YouGov poll, only 23% of respondents backed First Past the Post. But what might replace it? Different countries use a dizzying array of different systems, which are designed to do different things. Some are ‘proportional’, others ‘preferential’. Some would expand the range of parties, while others might shrink them. Do we want our electoral system to give us strong governments or strong parliaments? Do we want more or fewer regional parties, independent candidates, extremist parties or coalitions? In this event, co-hosted with Unlock Democracy, the Electoral Reform Society and Make Votes Matter, the Mile End Institute presented different electoral systems as used in France, New Zealand, Scotland, Ireland and the Netherlands. Dr Jess Garland (ERS), Professor Rainbow Murray (QMUL), Stephen Gethins MP and Professor Stijn van Kessel (QMUL) debated their strengths and weaknesses; what they can and can’t achieve; and how they work in practice.
Topic:: Government, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: United Kingdom

663. The Political Economy of Starmer's Labour

Author:: Colm Murphy, Sam Freedman, Morgan Jones, Theo Bertram, and Kate Alexander Shaw
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: The first eight months of the new Labour government have been tumultuous, and nowhere more than in the politics of economics. Rachel Reeves has hiked taxes and increased borrowing, but her Treasury are also in tense negotiations with other departments over spending constraints. The Bank of England is trying to cut interest rates, but in a volatile market environment highly sensitive to developments across the Atlantic. The Government has already made itself vocal enemies ranging from tractor-driving farmers to child poverty campaigners, and businesses, trade unions, and lobbyists are currently battling to shape its policies on workers rights, planning reform, oilfields and airport expansions. What have we learned about Labour's economic policies? Do they have a coherent strategy? How united is the Labour Party and what are the emerging tensions? What would a successful economic strategy look like, given the UK's longstanding weaknesses of underinvestment and regional inequality and newer dangers like trade wars and recessionary risk? In this Mile End Institute webinar, Dr Colm Murphy, Sam Freedman (author of Britain's biggest politics Substack), the political writer Morgan Jones, former Number 10 advisor Dr Theo Bertram, and the economist Dr Kate Alexander Shaw explore the political economy of Keir Starmer's Labour Party.
Topic:: Political Economy, Political Parties, Labour Party, and Keir Starmer
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

664. The Third Hennessy Lecture: Baroness Sayeeda Warsi

Author:: Sayeeda Warsi
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Baroness Sayeeda Warsi was the first Muslim to serve in a British Cabinet, during the coalition government of 2010-15. A former party Chair, Foreign Office minister and Minister for Faith and Communities, she is now a non-aligned peer and has become one of Britain's leading commentators on Islam and Islamophobia. She is a prominent voice against anti-Muslim racism, and the author of two celebrated books on the role of Islam in modern Britain: The Enemy Within: A Tale of Muslim Britain and Muslims Don't Matter. In the third of the Mile End Institute's new series of distinguished "Hennessy Lectures", to mark our 10th anniversary, Baroness Warsi reflected on her life and career as a Muslim woman born in Yorkshire, who practised as a lawyer before becoming a minister and member of the House of Lords, and offered "the anatomy of a prejudice" in British society today.
Topic:: Politics, Muslims, and House of Lords
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

665. The Future of the 'Special Relationship'

Author:: Kim Darroch and Evie Aspinall
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Since Winston Churchill first coined the term in 1946, successive American Presidents and Prime Ministers have hailed the ‘Special Relationship’ between the United Kingdom and the United States. For over 80 years, the exceptionally close political, diplomatic, economic, military and intelligence relationship between the two countries has endured changes of government, the end of the Cold War, the ‘War on Terror’, and globalisation. In the week that Donald Trump returned to the White House, the former British Ambassador to the United States, Kim Darroch, the Director of the British Foreign Policy Group, Evie Aspinall, and Dr James Ellison explored the future of Anglo-American relations. With tariffs looming and Elon Musk waging war on the Starmer government, they asked how should Britain handle this relationship - and explored the challenges it will face over the coming years.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Tariffs, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

666. The Conservative Party in Opposition

Author:: Tim Bale, Nigel Fletcher, Lee David Evans, and Mercy Muroki
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: As Kemi Badenoch began her tenure as Leader of the Conservative Party and the Leader of His Majesty's Official Opposition, Prof Tim Bale was joined by Dr Nigel Fletcher, Lee David Evans and Mercy Muroki to explore her approach to leadership and what her Shadow Cabinet appointments tell us about the future of Conservative policy. After the most successful electoral force in British history suffered the worst defeat in its 200-year existence, our expert panel of academics, historians and political commentators considered how the new Conservative leader might approach the challenges and dilemmas of Opposition.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Conservative Party
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

667. GTB v Spain: The Right to a Birth Certificate Under the European Convention on Human Rights

Author:: Cameron Nye
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: On 16November 2023, the European Court of Human Rights (‘Court’) issued a landmark judgment in the case of GTB v Spain (‘GTB’).1The case concerned the prolonged delay by Spanish authorities in assisting the applicant, Mr GTB, with registering his birth and obtaining identity documents, despite being aware of his inability to do so. In a first for the Court, itwasheld that art 8 of the Convention on the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (‘ECHR’),2which protects the right to private and family life, includes a right to birth registration. Accordingly, the Court found a violation against the Spanish authorities for their failure to act diligently to secure this right.3Birth registration is vital to establish a child’s legal identity, family ties and often their nationality, all of which are important for accessing fundamental rights. Children who lack birth registration can face significant difficulties in their education, healthcare and personal lives. In some cases, these children are also stateless or at the risk thereof.4Nevertheless, significant barriers to birth registration persist across Europe and other regions. The GTB judgment has clear potential to place the issue of birth registration and access to identity documents at the heart of the Court’s progressive development of art 8. The Court not only established that access to documentation is a substantive right under the ECHR, but also articulated this through a noteworthy emphasis on the right to have one’s identity recognised in law, particularly where children are concerned.5The judgment also takes a step further in the Court’s interpretation of art 8, considering as its central legal issue whether states have an obligation to go beyond standard procedures to secure an individual’s ability to develop their sense of identity.6While the Court’s analysis raisesvarious questions,particularly whether the obligation exists only as a remedy for parental inaction,it nevertheless establishes several principles that advance the protections of art 8 concerning an individual’s access to a legal identity.
Topic:: Identity, European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), Statelessness, and Documentation
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

668. Recognition of the Status of Stateless Persons and Right of Residence for Palestinians in Belgium: Applying the Principle of res judicata to Avoid Divergences among Courts

Author:: Giulia Bittoni
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The recognition of the status of stateless Palestinians within the European Union (‘EU’) is complex and sensitive, notably due to the challenges in determining whether Palestine qualifies as a state. Moreover, not all EU Member states grant a right of residence to stateless individuals. In some states, including Belgium, recognising statelessness does not automatically confer a right of residence, creating a gap between statelessness recognition and thisright.1This discrepancy has led to numerous legal actions in Belgian civil courts to seek this residence right.Until August 2024, Belgium recognisedstateless statussolely through judicial procedure.More specifically,until 2017, the Tribunal de première instance (‘Tribunalof First Instance’)held jurisdiction in these matters. Since 3 August 2017, jurisdiction has shifted to the Tribunal de la familleet de la jeunesse(‘The Family and Juvenile Tribunal’) based on the residence of the applicant.
Topic:: European Union, Palestinians, Statelessness, and Aliens Act
Political Geography:: Europe, Palestine, and Belgium

669. Statelessness, Gender, and Intersectionality in Bjorkquist et al v Attorney General of Canada

Author:: Heather Alexander and Jocelyn Kane
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Bjorkquist et alv AttorneyGeneral of Canada, decided in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice on 19 December 2023, is a landmark ruling overturning the so-called ‘second generation cut off’in Canadian citizenship law that prohibitedCanadian citizens born abroad from automatically passing their Canadian citizenship to their children if thelatterwere also born abroad.1The ruling therefore establishes the rights of ‘lost Canadians’to Canadian citizenship.Applicants and the Court made several important contributions not only to the right to a nationality under Canadian law, but also to the global fight against statelessness by lending support to the concept of intersectional discrimination in the context of the right to citizenship. Experts have hailed it as a groundbreaking decision for the principle of intersectionality in discrimination.2A further contribution was made concerning the ability of stateless persons to have standing before national courts despite their non-citizen status. Yet,despite the Court acknowledging that the law in question causes the risk of statelessness,3the case did notdirectly address Canada’s international obligations to prevent and resolve statelessness. Nor did applicants argue, nor the Court independently find, that the creation of statelessness is a Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms(‘Charter’) violation.4Nevertheless, the case will help to close a serious and gendered gap in Canadian law that was producing statelessness.
Topic:: Citizenship, Discrimination, Intersectionality, Gender, and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

670. Towards Equitable, Transparent and Evidence-based Malaysian Citizenship Law Amendments: Taking Stock of Remaining Risks of Statelessness and Exclusion

Author:: Rodziana bt Mohamed Razali and Chin Chin Sia
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: In this commentary, we critically reflect on the recentcitizenship amendmentspassedby the Malaysian House of Representatives via the Constitution (Amendment) Bill 2024on 17 October2024.1Wealso examine the critical issues inherent within several facets of Malaysia’s citizenship frameworkthat have been deemed regressive for the potential heightening of statelessness and exclusion from citizenship among several impacted categories of persons. We argue that equitable and effective reforms to the citizenship regime are not just necessary but also encouraging. These reforms are needed to mitigate the risk of statelessness and its negative repercussions in accordance with art 15 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,2in which everyone has the right to nationality. Restrictive citizenship lawswhich do not align with art 15 have undesirable consequences for families,impactinglife choices such as where individuals may choose to live, work, study or even where they have children and raise a family. We then recommend using a balanced and equitable approach, supported by credible data, evidence and transparent processes, to reassess the revision of the citizenship laws for the future sustainability of Malaysia as a democratic and progressive country.
Topic:: Law, Citizenship, Exclusion, and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Malaysia and Southeast Asia

671. World Conference on Statelessness 2024 – Key Takeaways

Author:: Subin Mulmi and Jenna Biedscheid
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The Second World Conference on Statelessness was convened at Taylor’s University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from 26 to 29 February 2024.1It was co-organised by the Institute on Statelessness and Inclusion (ISI), Nationality for All (NFA), Development of Human Resources for Rural Areas Malaysia (DHRRA), Family Frontiers (‘FF’) and supported by the Human Rights Commission of Malaysia (SUHAKAM).The Conference was the biggest convening of the statelessness field to date, attended by 450 in-person participants and over 100 online participants from all over the world. Around 30% of the participants who responded to a voluntary survey identified themselves as persons with lived experience of statelessness.2This shows a significant increase from the first World Conference in 2019, where only 10% of participants had lived experience.3In contrast to the first Conference being held in The Hague, the venue moving to Malaysia is reflective of greater accessibility and representation, with the Asia Pacific holding the largest population of stateless persons in the world.4Over the course of three and a half days, the Conference featured plenary sessions, panel discussions, workshops and skill labs focusing on the three themes of ‘Solidarity, Knowledge and Change’. The Conference also featured the Immersive Arts and Culture Programmetitled‘Think of Others’,which was an integral part of the event.5This piece captures some of the key conversations that took place at the Conference and provides a reflective analysis from the perspective of two members of the organising team. Their analysis delves into broad takeaways that affect civil society and the statelessness ecosystem through the three themes of the Conference, with the purpose of targeting a diverse set of participants. The findings are based on the notes taken by the designated notetakers and the recorded videos of the plenary sessions.
Topic:: Development, Rural, Human Resources, Inclusion, Statelessness, and World Conference on Statelessness
Political Geography:: Global Focus

672. Stateless Persons in the Czech Republic: Filling the Gaps without Good Faith?

Author:: Alžbeta Králová and Linda Janků
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: ‘I feel like I am nobody. That’s it. A stateless person is nobody. Someone who does not exist. This is how I feel.’1Thissense of invisibility or non-existenceasillustrated by the wordsof one of Czechia’s (more commonly known as the Czech Republic)stateless persons is often associated with the phenomenon of statelessness. What reinforces this feeling is that State authorities themselves treat stateless persons as invisible. This only intensifies the disintegration of their personal and social identity. Furthermore, states not only ignore the plight of stateless persons, but they also seem to disregard their international commitments to this extremely vulnerable group.2This includes the Czech Republic, which appears reluctant to uphold the principle of good faith while interpreting its international obligations towards stateless persons.Statelessness in the Czech Republic today appears in the migratory context, similarly to other European countries. It is estimated that up to 1,500 stateless individuals live in the Czech Republic, including both those residing legally and illegally.3However, the issue has received very little attention and has long been perceived as non-existent, due to both a lack of public awareness and the Czech government’s reluctance to address it. For several decades, stateless persons have been caught in a cycle of lacking legal pathways to regularise their stay, facing expulsion proceedings and repeated detentions.
Topic:: Citizenship, Statelessness, and New Aliens Act
Political Geography:: Czech Republic

673. Reflections on Statelessness Awareness Forum (Europe) 2024

Author:: Aleksejs Ivashuk, Jessica Schmieder, and Aleksandra Semeriak Gavrilenok
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Statelessness Awareness Forum (Europe), or SAF(E), is the firstever international forum hosted by a stateless-led organisation, Apatride Network.1The organisation is one of the biggest stateless-led organisations in the world, working to address statelessness in the European Union(‘EU’) byfocusing on awareness raising, legal assistance and stakeholder bridge-building, and impact initiatives that tackle daily challenges faced by stateless people.2These daily challenges may include issues in documentation, employment, banking access, freedom of movement, lack of representation in the media and other relevant spaces. SAF(E) is designed by Apatride Network as a continuous, annual event that takes on the challenge of the lack of systemic awarenessraising on statelessness. The first edition was held from 20 to 24March2024 in Alicante, Spain. It brought together leading experts in statelessness, including experts from stateless-led organisations, representation from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (‘UNHCR’), the Institute on Statelessness and Inclusion (ISI), the Hungarian Helsinki Committee,and the European Network on Statelessness (‘ENS’). This reflection piece is meant to highlight the significance of SAF(E), the lessons drawn and learnedfrom the forumand the impact it has had on addressing statelessness.
Topic:: European Union and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Europe

674. Reframing the Windrush Scandal as an International Statelessness Crisis

Author:: Eve Hayes de Kalaf
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The 2018 so-termed ‘Windrush Scandal’ highlighted the discriminatory actions of the British State against Commonwealth migrants who, having legally settled in the United Kingdom in the postwar period, found their right to remain wrongly challenged by the Home Office. The controversy led to threats of deportation and incarceration for some, while others found they were locked out of the country indefinitely. This article examines some of the ways in which racialised and minority groups can encounter ‘statelessness-like’ experiences in their everyday interactions with the state, as well as exploring some of the far-reaching and unexpected consequences of measures that have historically attempted to limit migration from the Caribbean and the broader Commonwealth to the United Kingdom. Drawing on extensive oral history interviews conducted as part of the project ‘The Windrush Scandal in a Transnational and Commonwealth Context’, this paper argues that the Scandal provides statelessness scholars with a much-needed window into the distinct ways Global North countries have sought to prevent migrants and their descendants, many of whom see themselves as citizens, from full enjoyment of their rights. Ultimately, the author proposes that the (re)positioning of the Windrush Scandal as a crisis worthy of international attention will firmly embed the inclusion of this controversy into the field of statelessness studies, while opening new opportunities for cultural, political and legal exploration of the broader ways in which people’s claims to citizenship recognition can be thwarted, overridden or ignored by the state.
Topic:: Migrants, Statelessness, Commonwealth of Nations, and Windrush
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Caribbean

675. ASEAN Caught Between China’s Export Surge and Global De-Risking

Author:: Asia Sociey
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: ASEAN, long a beneficiary of China’s rapid growth and global supply chain integration, now faces mounting pressures as Chinese industrial overcapacity spills into the region. ASEAN has thus far largely stayed out of growing global trade tensions around China’s industrial policies, much as it did during earlier U.S.-China trade disputes, while benefiting from investment and trade from all sides and deeper integration into Chinese supply chains that support growing exports to global markets. However, ASEAN faces increasing pressures from four key trends, each of which is accelerating, pointing to a more challenging time ahead for ASEAN policymakers and businesses. These developments are increasingly putting ASEAN in the middle of economic challenges and global reactions to China and its industrial overcapacity. China’s exports to ASEAN are growing rapidly, exceeding its exports to the United States and the European Union (EU) since 2023, and up a further 12% in 2024. While most of this growth has been in intermediate goods, supporting ASEAN’s own exports to advanced economies, increasingly it is also in final goods, displacing local industry and jobs. Meanwhile, ASEAN exports to China have declined 3% since 2022, contributing to growing trade deficits and incipient trade tensions. China’s industrial overcapacity, in lower-end as well as advanced manufacturing sectors—manifesting in surging volumes of artificially low-priced Chinese exports—is displacing ASEAN exports to third markets, threatening the region’s broader industrial health and development. ASEAN is increasingly becoming the key offshore manufacturing base for Chinese companies, particularly in the clean energy sector. While this investment can support the region’s energy transition and enhance global competitiveness in these important technologies, these products are at the center of overcapacity tensions with China, threatening to put ASEAN in the crosshairs of global trade responses. While ASEAN has benefited from integration into Chinese supply chains, the United States, the EU, and other economies, including Japan and India, are intensifying their scrutiny of exports from Chinese companies operating in or processed through third countries. ASEAN governments now face a double balancing act: managing growing economic integration with China while contending with mounting pressure from advanced economies to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. At the same time, ASEAN must balance leveraging Chinese cheap imports and growing investments to drive industrial growth against the risk of these inputs overwhelming domestic industries and limiting their own industrial development. These tensions ASEAN faces are already building and are likely to be sharpened and accelerated under new Trump administration tariffs and China’s decoupling efforts. These evolving tensions also cast doubt on the extent to which China can meaningfully shift exports to ASEAN and other emerging markets as it faces growing trade restrictions from the United States and the EU. To address these challenges, ASEAN must prioritize strengthening trade tools and enhancing regional coordination to manage import surges, while continuing to invest in its own competitiveness. Diversifying its supply chains from increasing reliance on China will be critical to reducing vulnerabilities. Leveraging institutional frameworks under the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) and the Regional and Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) can help ASEAN navigate external pressures while safeguarding its industrial growth. At the same time, the U.S. and other major economies should proactively engage ASEAN on their overcapacity and de-risking concerns related to China, to help ASEAN remain a key partner in their own supply chain diversification efforts.
Topic:: Exports, Manufacturing, Industry, ASEAN, Supply Chains, Regional Economy, and De-Risking
Political Geography:: China and Asia

676. China-Russia Relations Since the Start of the War in Ukraine

Author:: Asia Sociey
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: In the 19th century, like Western powers and Japan, Russia participated in the “Scramble for China”; however, unlike the others, it never returned the vast territories it annexed. After a long and turbulent history of Sino-Russian relations, Mikhail Gorbachev launched the Soviet “turn to Asia” policy in July 1986 with his Vladivostok speech. Addressing the Chinese directly, he declared: “I would like to dwell on the most important issue in our relations. These relations are extremely important for several reasons, starting from the fact that we are neighbors, that we share the world’s longest land border, and that we, our children, and grandchildren are destined to live near each other ‘forever and ever.’”1 This policy was reaffirmed by President Vladimir Putin after he came to power in 2000, reinforced during the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and further intensified following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That year, China and Russia signed lengthy and grandiloquent declarations celebrating their “no-limits friendship,” prominently showcased during commemorations in Moscow marking the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany. Yet this no-limits friendship, while rhetorically expansive, has never been formalized and contains several clear limitations — limitations the current U.S. administration has unsuccessfully attempted to exploit. This paper examines the China-Russia relationship and its often-contradictory evolution. The strategic dynamic between these two Eurasian powers has produced a partnership further solidified by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, despite Beijing’s attempts to mediate the conflict. While the strength of this partnership may make it appear unbreakable, it should not preclude continued dialogue between China and the West — particularly the European Union and its member states. The EU–China summit held in Beijing on July 24, however, did not yield the expected results in this regard.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, European Union, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

677. Xi’s Personal Priorities: What Matters Most to China’s Leader?

Author:: Neil Thomas and Lobsang Tsering
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: Time is a politician’s most precious resource. Every decision to attend a meeting, launch an initiative, or deliver a speech involves trade-offs. Unlike budgets or personnel, time cannot be expanded or replenished. How a leader allocates their time reveals their priorities. Xi Jinping is acutely aware of this reality. “To realize the China Dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, we must race against time,” he declared in January 2020. State media claimed that on an “ordinary day,” Xi sleeps just six hours and works through every meal. Li Zhanshu, Xi’s former chief of staff, summarized his work tempo in one word: “fast.” This urgency helps explain why Xi wants to become the “chairman of everything,” replacing collective leadership with personalized rule, sidelining colleagues, and centralizing decision-making within Chinese Communist Party (CCP) bodies under his direct control. Yet even a leader as powerful and driven as Xi cannot do everything. So how does Xi spend his time? It is impossible to know for sure, but a useful proxy could be official statements about actions that he has taken “personally” (qinzi). In particular, CCP media have mentioned several policies that Xi has “personally planned, personally arranged, and personally promoted” (qinzi mouhua, qinzi bushu, qinzi tuidong). The Center for China Analysis has compiled a database of these policies. Analysis suggests that Xi pays special attention to regional development projects, internal CCP governance, and environmental protection. Notably absent are indications of personal involvement in key political economy issues such as consumption, demographics, healthcare, public finance, and welfare reform. For policymakers and businesses seeking leverage or opportunity in China, understanding Xi’s priorities is a critical starting point.
Topic:: Leadership, Domestic Politics, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

678. The People’s Republic of Wellness: Why Beijing Worries About Well-Being

Author:: G. A. Donovan
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: Wellness is booming in China as more people engage in activities that promote healthier living, emotional balance, and spiritual growth. Interest in living well has grown steadily as living standards rise and China undergoes radical social and economic change. More people are facing financial distress amid a slowing economy, and younger generations struggle with intense academic pressure and limited employment opportunities. Wellness trends gained steam during the COVID-19 pandemic, which accelerated the shift from materialism toward a search for spirituality and meaning. Maintaining a harmonious and stable social environment is central to the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy. Beijing recognizes the value of many popular wellness trends and actively encourages those that align with its interest in fostering citizens’ well-being and improving public morale. As people struggle to manage the stress of daily living and define wellness and the good life on their own terms, building a harmonious society has become a major challenge for China’s leaders. In an attempt to manage this friction, they increasingly focus propaganda efforts on highlighting the country’s economic and technological achievements and their assertiveness in the trade conflict with the United States.
Topic:: Economy, Public Health, Society, and Well-Being
Political Geography:: China and Asia

679. Australians Vote for the Steady Center

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: On May 3, the Australian Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, returned to power. It was a remarkable result. First-term governments in Australia usually get a second term, but typically with a reduced majority. Not only did Labor increase its majority, but the size of its victory has probably consigned their main political rivals — a Coalition of the Liberal Party and the rural-based National Party — to Opposition for at least the next two terms of government. The result has been so politically traumatic that the two Opposition parties have torn up their Coalition agreement for the first time since 1987. Foreign and defense policy did not really feature in the election campaign. The result suggests there will not be too much change in Australia’s approach to the world. But the election also hints at the challenge the government will face balancing domestic and international priorities. By highlighting U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Australia, it also points to how managing the alliance may become a little trickier in Albanese’s new term.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

680. The Sources of Southeast Asian Discontent Over Gaza

Author:: Meghan Murphy
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: On January 19, 2025, countries around the world, including the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), breathed a sigh of relief when a tentative ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was announced by mediators—the United States, Egypt, and Qatar—hoping it would mean an end to the bloodshed. The most recent iteration of the nearly seven-decades-long conflict began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an attack that killed 1,195 Israelis, and it has since resulted in more than 60,000 Palestinian casualties and the destruction of much of the Gaza Strip by the Israeli Defense Forces. Central to the conversation around the war has been the role of Washington, which, as Israel’s strongest ally, has provided the country with more than $17.9 billion in security assistance since October 2023. Then-president-elect Donald Trump claimed credit for the deal, writing on Truth Social that it occurred as a result of his peace-seeking administration winning the November 2024 presidential election. However, the ceasefire agreement collapsed after his inauguration; the situation in Palestine has only worsened during a two-month-long Israeli blockade on humanitarian aid to Gaza. As President Trump embarked on a trip to the Gulf States in mid-May, it was not just Middle Eastern states that were closely watching the administration’s policy on Gaza, but also the countries of Southeast Asia, where many policymakers remain concerned with what will happen next. Several states—especially Muslim-majority Malaysia and Indonesia—have maintained a deep frustration with what they perceive as American-approved Israeli war tactics and, as of early February, with the Trump administration’s plan to “take over Gaza.” In its first months in office, the Trump foreign policy team has tried to indicate that it is committed to continuing strong diplomatic efforts in the Indo-Pacific despite uncertainty on trade and security policies. In Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s first week in office, he spoke with his counterparts in three Southeast Asian countries—the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam—where he raised concerns regarding China’s behavior in the South China Sea. However, if the Trump administration is committed to countering China in the region through strengthening diplomatic relations and military cooperation with Southeast Asian nations, it will have to address the concerns of those countries that are deeply angered by the ongoing war in Gaza. To better understand why these countries have responded as they have, it is crucial to understand the decades-long history connecting Palestine to Southeast Asia.
Topic:: Genocide, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, Ceasefire, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Southeast Asia

681. A New Triangle: The Interplay Between China and EU-India Relations

Author:: Philippe Le Corre
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: China has shaped the U.S.-India relationship for decades.1 Today, another significant triangle is emerging: the China-EU-India relationship. Indian and European leaders are strengthening ties. Both view China as a formidable economic and security rival while regarding the United States as a key security partner (and, for Europe, a long-standing ally). What is the current state of EU-China and EU-India relations? As India’s influence and economic appeal grow, could it become a viable alternative to China for European business leaders and policymakers? How is Brussels incorporating India into its strategies to address a potential crisis in Asia or the broader Indo-Pacific? Twenty-five years ago, the European Union viewed China as a top priority for business, cultural exchanges, and diplomacy. Following the introduction of Beijing’s open-door policy in 1978 and with strong encouragement from Chinese authorities, European companies flocked to China. Initially, many Europeans used Hong Kong as an intermediary for business, but by the mid-1990s, Guangdong Province and Shanghai became key gateways to the Chinese market, particularly for Germany and France.2 Trade and investment surged, especially after China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, which was widely supported by European political and business elites. Today, China remains the EU’s largest trading partner, with substantial European investments across the mainland. In contrast, India was long viewed as a potential partner, but only a few EU member states took steps to forge a strategic partnership with New Delhi. European investments in India were — and still are — limited, with many corporations citing challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, market access barriers, and bureaucratic red tape, which make it difficult to operate in most Indian states. However, the mood has begun to shift. On the EU side, the European Commission’s 2019 China strategy characterized Beijing as “a partner, a competitor, and a systemic rival.” The COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted direct links between Europe and China from 2020 to 2022, caused significant strain. This was followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, an event many on the continent perceive as having Beijing’s tacit support. Additional factors, including an increasingly authoritarian regime at home and a more assertive China abroad, have contributed to European perceptions,3 as explained at length by the Center for China Analysis’s latest Global Public Opinion on China project.4 This, in turn, has affected the EU-China relationship, which has been gradually downgraded from the “honeymoon” period of 1995–2015. On the other hand, the strengthening EU-India relationship is a relatively recent development, driven by several factors that have emerged in the wake of the pandemic. These include the rise of the ambitious Bharatiya Janata Party under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who first took office in 2014 and is now serving his third term, as well as a broader diversity of partnerships between the EU and India. Other factors influencing EU-India relations include the growing assertiveness of the People’s Republic of China and the United States’ shift away from multilateralism during President Donald Trump’s first term (2017–2021). Since January 2025, the increasing probability of a break in the transatlantic alliance under the new Trump administration is leading the EU to look for new partners, including in the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, India’s robust GDP growth — 6.6% in 2025 and a projected 6.7% in 2026 — has attracted European businesses.5 In a global environment defined by multipolarity, could the previously low-profile EU-India relationship evolve into a closer partnership? With EU-China relations facing significant challenges, might India emerge as a viable alternative Asian partner for Europe? The current EU-India relationship is described as “strategic.” In reality, it is partial and uneven, and there are major differences in the nature of relations between India and individual EU member states. Meanwhile, how does Beijing view its competitor in the Global South as it seeks to win over Europe’s support? This paper explores the dynamics of the interaction among these three powers in the rapidly changing geopolitical context. It examines India’s political and economic challenges in the context of the EU-China relationship, how the EU-India relationship is evolving, and whether an EU-India partnership could take center stage if tensions with China escalate. European countries have kept strong ties with the Global South, and some see a strong India as a potential bridge for fostering cooperation in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:: China, Europe, India, and Asia

682. EU-Taiwan Relations: Navigating PRC Pressure, U.S.-China Competition, and Trump’s Foreign Policy

Author:: Simona Grano
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: This paper first explores the growing relationship between the European Union and Taiwan by focusing on recent interactions. It then discusses the broader geopolitical implications of Trump’s “America First” policy and how the U.S.-China competition impacts the EU’s ability to strategically balance the China-Taiwan dynamic. The paper demonstrates how a number of variables, including Europe’s strategic interests in the region, the U.S. position on China, and the U.S.-EU relationship under the second Trump administration, will influence ties between the EU and Taiwan. The shift in EU-Taiwan ties has gone largely unnoticed. The EU has started paying more attention to Taiwan’s security, shifting away from its former focus on China for its importance in trade and investment. This shift is partly due to supply chain and security concerns and partly due to growing political apprehension about China’s long-term goals. In the coming years, Europe will be influenced by the Trump administration when deciding how to handle Taiwan. The EU will have to find a balance between the need for steady access to vital technology and U.S.-EU relations. At the same time, the EU and the United States seem to have entered a critical phase in their bilateral relationship, especially concerning the war in Ukraine and Washington’s warming relationship with Moscow. This indeterminate situation may also impact the EU’s relationship with both Taiwan and China, the consequences of which will take several months to fully gauge.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

683. ASEAN Caught Between China’s Export Surge and Global De-Risking

Author:: Brendan Kelly and Shay Wester
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: ASEAN, long a beneficiary of China’s rapid growth and global supply chain integration, now faces mounting pressures as Chinese industrial overcapacity spills into the region. ASEAN has thus far largely stayed out of growing global trade tensions around China’s industrial policies, much as it did during earlier U.S.-China trade disputes, while benefiting from investment and trade from all sides and deeper integration into Chinese supply chains that support growing exports to global markets. However, ASEAN faces increasing pressures from four key trends, each of which is accelerating, pointing to a more challenging time ahead for ASEAN policymakers and businesses. These developments are increasingly putting ASEAN in the middle of economic challenges and global reactions to China and its industrial overcapacity. China’s exports to ASEAN are growing rapidly, exceeding its exports to the United States and the European Union (EU) since 2023, and up a further 12% in 2024. While most of this growth has been in intermediate goods, supporting ASEAN’s own exports to advanced economies, increasingly it is also in final goods, displacing local industry and jobs. Meanwhile, ASEAN exports to China have declined 3% since 2022, contributing to growing trade deficits and incipient trade tensions. China’s industrial overcapacity, in lower-end as well as advanced manufacturing sectors—manifesting in surging volumes of artificially low-priced Chinese exports—is displacing ASEAN exports to third markets, threatening the region’s broader industrial health and development. ASEAN is increasingly becoming the key offshore manufacturing base for Chinese companies, particularly in the clean energy sector. While this investment can support the region’s energy transition and enhance global competitiveness in these important technologies, these products are at the center of overcapacity tensions with China, threatening to put ASEAN in the crosshairs of global trade responses. While ASEAN has benefited from integration into Chinese supply chains, the United States, the EU, and other economies, including Japan and India, are intensifying their scrutiny of exports from Chinese companies operating in or processed through third countries. ASEAN governments now face a double balancing act: managing growing economic integration with China while contending with mounting pressure from advanced economies to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. At the same time, ASEAN must balance leveraging Chinese cheap imports and growing investments to drive industrial growth against the risk of these inputs overwhelming domestic industries and limiting their own industrial development. These tensions ASEAN faces are already building and are likely to be sharpened and accelerated under new Trump administration tariffs and China’s decoupling efforts. These evolving tensions also cast doubt on the extent to which China can meaningfully shift exports to ASEAN and other emerging markets as it faces growing trade restrictions from the United States and the EU. To address these challenges, ASEAN must prioritize strengthening trade tools and enhancing regional coordination to manage import surges, while continuing to invest in its own competitiveness. Diversifying its supply chains from increasing reliance on China will be critical to reducing vulnerabilities. Leveraging institutional frameworks under the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) and the Regional and Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) can help ASEAN navigate external pressures while safeguarding its industrial growth. At the same time, the U.S. and other major economies should proactively engage ASEAN on their overcapacity and de-risking concerns related to China, to help ASEAN remain a key partner in their own supply chain diversification efforts.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Exports, ASEAN, Supply Chains, and De-Risking
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

684. What to Watch at China’s Two Sessions in 2025

Author:: Neil Thomas and Jing Qian
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: The annual Two Sessions is the closest thing to a carnival in Chinese politics. Thousands of leaders, bureaucrats, experts, reporters, and celebrities from across the country flock to Beijing for a week of political pageantry. While the premier’s annual “state of the union” address is more restrained than its American counterpart — U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to address a joint session of Congress just a day earlier — it remains a key indicator of China’s economic direction. The Two Sessions refers to the concurrent annual meetings of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which opens on March 4, and the National People’s Congress (NPC), which begins on March 5. These meetings are expected to conclude on or around March 11. Both institutions answer to the Chinese Communist Party, led by General Secretary Xi Jinping. The CPPCC National Committee, with 2,169 members, serves as the overarching organization of the United Front system, which mobilizes various social groups to support and advise the Party. Meanwhile, the NPC, with 2,977 delegates, functions as a single-chamber parliament that is, at least notionally, the supreme organ of state power. Anticipation surrounding this year’s event has been heightened by a rare “symposium on private enterprises” that Xi hosted on February 17, attended by some of the country’s top entrepreneurs. This uncommon symposium, last held in 2018, raised hopes for China’s struggling economy — particularly following the January return of President Trump, a self-proclaimed “tariff king” who has already imposed an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports. Now, attention shifts to how much Beijing is willing to boost stimulus, support businesses, and respond to Trump’s trade policies. The Two Sessions is expected to reveal a more pro-growth agenda compared to last year, with approximate targets of 5% for GDP growth, 4% of GDP for the fiscal deficit ratio, and 2% for consumer inflation. Further stimulus will come from roughly 3 trillion yuan in ultralong special treasury bonds and 4.5–5 trillion yuan in local government special-purpose bonds. Measures to boost consumer spending and encourage private-sector innovation will also be introduced. While Beijing aims to stabilize growth, it is unlikely to unleash the proverbial “bazooka” stimulus, as it needs to conserve fiscal resources for a potential trade war. Similarly, sweeping structural reforms remain improbable as the government remains committed to Xi’s vision of high-tech industrial self-reliance.
Topic:: Reform, Economic Growth, Domestic Politics, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

685. China’s Middle Class Searches for Faith and Meaning

Author:: John Osburg
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: Members of China’s urban middle class — long assumed to be the most secular segment of Chinese society — are turning to religion and spirituality in greater numbers. Rejecting officially sanctioned religious institutions and state-promoted ideology, many urbanites are seeking alternatives considered less tainted by party-state interference. Independent Christian churches, Tibetan Buddhist teachers, and New Age workshops are attracting increasing numbers of affluent, well-educated urban Chinese looking for authentic spiritual experiences and a sense of community, some of whom mix aspects of different religions to create their own personal spiritual practices. Growing interest in religious communities at the margins of state control reflects the failure of official ideology to provide spiritual comfort and the party-state’s lack of moral authority. Attempts by Beijing to co-opt religious institutions through “Sinicization” have undermined their spiritual authority. “Boss Christians” fund their own churches to gain social status and legitimize their wealth, while a growing number of intellectuals see Christian values as a model for reforming China’s government and society. Members of China’s elite who convert to Tibetan Buddhism say they value its purity and intellectually rigorous philosophy, which they contrast to the corrupted, diluted teachings of Han Chinese Buddhism.
Topic:: Religion, Christianity, Secularism, Buddhism, Middle Class, and Society
Political Geography:: China and Asia

686. China’s Views on Escalation and Crisis Management and Implications for the United States

Author:: Lyle Morris
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: China lacks experience dealing with military crises and has attempted to compensate by investing considerable intellectual capital to develop theories and strategies for managing escalation with potential adversaries. China’s military strategists believe that if a crisis breaks out, it can be “controlled,” and escalation can be “managed” by applying scientific principles and advanced military technology. People’s Liberation Army strategists have developed a conceptual framework for managing crises called “effective control” (youxiao kongzhi) — a flexible, graduated tool designed to guide political and military action during times of tension. Due to an overreliance on theoretical underpinnings, China believes it can control all facets of military escalation. This could make China’s leaders overconfident in their ability to prevail in a conflict and increase the risk of escalation in a military confrontation between China and the United States. The writings of Chinese military strategists omit how China’s behavior may be perceived — or misperceived — by an adversary. Absent is an acknowledgment that China’s actions, such as in space or cyberspace, may be viewed as provocative and grounds for the tit-for-tat escalation that Beijing seeks to avoid. Further research is necessary to explore the actions that China’s military may employ to manage escalation and how adversaries may interpret them.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Crisis Management, Escalation, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

687. Maintaining Regional Stability Amid Complex Regime Transitions in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities for COMESA Member States

Author:: Mumo Nzau
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: With a market reach of approximately 600 million people and straddling 21 countries, the COMESA bloc occupies a vast chunk of the continent. Contemporary literature on the region generally points to huge macroeconomic potential in as far as the holistic developmental and wealth creation projections are concerned. Nonetheless, a sizeable number of COMESA countries have, from time to time, experienced phases of complex regime transition, a state of affairs that comes with an aura of regional instability, thereby undermining the prosperity prospects of a trading bloc that boasts a combined GDP of US$ 768 billion. Over the past decade, a sizeable number of these countries have been faced with one form or another of political turmoil and assorted civil strife, especially within the context of regime transitions and/or change of power from one government to the next. Against this background, through the lenses of neofunctionalism and liberal institutionalist theories, this paper examines the question of how best to ensure and/or maintain regional stability in the midst of such complex regime transitions, with the view of teasing out the challenges and opportunities before offering sustainable policy recommendations for COMESA countries.
Topic:: COMESA, Regional Stability, Neofunctionalism, Liberal Institutionalism, and Complex Regime Transitions
Political Geography:: Africa

688. Terminating Insurgency in Mozambique: Reflections on the SADC Mission In Mozambique

Author:: Oita Etyang, Lweendo Kambela, and Stephen Muleya
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The continued threat of insurgency in Mozambique has triggered academic and policy interest in the recent past. Indeed, the ramifications caused by acts of insurgency globally and in Africa remain endemic. This calls for the need to establish sustainable and context-specific interventions at regional and national levels. The Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) regions have not been spared from the lethality of insurgency, with Mozambique morphing into the epicentre of interest. Insurgency has caused untold suffering to communities in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, prompting the deployment of a SADC mission. As a regional peace operation, the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) was deployed on 15 July 2021 following approval by the Extraordinary SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government held in Maputo, Mozambique on 23 June 2021. The main objective of SAMIM was to support the Republic of Mozambique to combat armed groups and acts of insurgency, particularly in the Cabo Delgado province. This article seeks to understand the impact of the SAMIM intervention. It mainly interrogates SAMIM’s mandate, structure, success, challenges and lessons learned using both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies and various open data sources, including programmatic documents.
Topic:: Security, Insurgency, Peacekeeping, COMESA, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgado

689. The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend: Ethiopia–Eritrea Relations and the 2020 Conflict in the Tigray Region in Ethiopia

Author:: Berita Mutinda Musau
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Abiy Ahmed’s assumption of power in Ethiopia in April 2018 brought positive changes that were lauded internationally but unwelcomed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) –one of the coalition parties in the Ethiopian government. In November 2020, the Ethiopian Federal Government commenced a massive ‘law enforcement operation’ in the Tigray region against the TPLF. Eritrea’s involvement in the conflict alongside the Ethiopian government internationalised it. This article analyses Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray conflict. Since their 1998 border war over the Badme region, Eritrea and Ethiopia have had frosty relations. To date, they are still mending these relationships despite their 2018 rapprochement. This article argues that the alliance of the Ethiopian government with Eritrea against the TPLF could be a case of ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’ and thus examines Ethiopia–Eritrea relations and their strategic considerations that necessitated this alliance. Adopting the realist theory of international relations, the study reviews literature and historically analyses the relations between the two countries. The study’s main objective is to understand their strategic considerations for conflict and cooperation at different times in history and particularly in the Tigray conflict. The study’s findings reveal that amid the Ethiopia‒Eritrea relations are Eritrean‒Tigrayan relations, anchored in issues of identity construction and deconstruction, statehood and sovereignty, animosity, mistrust and apprehension. The study recommends that the relations between Abiy Ahmed’s government, Eritrea and the TPLF should be keenly monitored and managed for the stability of the two countries and the Horn of Africa region.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Armed Conflict, and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

690. The East African Community Regional Force in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Successes, Challenges and Prospects

Author:: Kizito Sabala and Vyalirendi Jacques Muhindo
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of more than 20 years of existence of the United Nations Organization Mission in Congo/Mission de l’Organization des Nations Unies au Congo (MONUSCO), the East African Community (EAC) deployed a military force in the eastern part of the country in November 2022. The purpose of the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) was to contribute towards the resolution of the conflict that has ravaged the region for decades, and specifically to neutralise the M23 resurgence and the numerous informal armed groups. The regional economic community that brings together eight countries, namely, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda was doing this for the first time since its establishment in 1999. Slightly over a year since its deployment, and eventual withdrawal in December 2023, there are several questions that arise which are the subject of this article: (i) Why did the EAC deploy EACRF when there is MONUSCO? (ii) to what extent had EACRF achieved its objective? (iii) was the mandate of the regional force appropriate for the situation in eastern DRC and how did it compare to that of MONUSCO? (iv) what are the challenges and prospects for peace, security and political stability in the DRC? While the article relies predominantly on secondary data, it taps into limited primary sources obtained by one of the authors during field humanitarian assignments in different parts in DRC.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Humanitarian Intervention, Military Intervention, and M23
Political Geography:: Africa, East Africa, and Democratic Republic of Congo

691. The Farmer–Fulani Herdsmen Clashes and the Socio-Economic Development of North-Western Nigeria: A Case Study of Southern Kaduna

Author:: David Villah Dan-Azumi
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The clashes between Fulani herdsmen and farmers in Nigeria have become endemic and persistent for decades. Climate change, cattle rustling, expansion of cultivated lands and population growth are among the major drivers of these clashes. However, the trends in the clashes in recent years suggest strong political, religious, ethnic and economic undertones. The recurrent and escalating nature of the violence in recent times is worrisome and despite the existing security efforts at the federal and state levels, the conflict remains unabated. This research examines the farmer–Fulani herdsmen clashes and their impact on the socio-economic development of southern Kaduna state. To explain the multifaceted nature of the clashes and how they affect the livelihoods of the affected communities, the study employs a theory of frustration and conflict, a quantitative research method, a survey research design and inferential statistics to analyse data. Findings from the research show an intricate interplay of socio-political, economic and ethno-religious factors in the violent clashes, a lack of feasible and realistic grazing policies and a lack of strong political will to address the conflict. Based on the research findings, the study recommends the establishment of cattle ranches in accordance with the existing laws on land ownership and robust security measures and structures to anticipate and forestall the recurrent clashes.
Topic:: Conflict, Justice, Economic Development, Reconciliation, and Fulani Herdsmen
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

692. Distributive Justice and Land-Related Conflict in Panda Development Area of Nasarawa State, Nigeria

Author:: Joshua O. Zachariah and Elias Chukwuemeka Ngwu
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The question of land has increasingly become a major source of conflicts in many parts of Africa. In Nigeria, claims of rights over landholdings and justice administration of land disputes, though of great concern, have received inadequate attention in the literature. In this context, this paper examines Nozickian distributive justice vis-à-vis land-related conflicts in the Panda Development Area (PDA), Nasarawa state, Nigeria. It focuses on perennial delays-cum-unfavourable rectification of unjust landholdings as drivers of conflict in the area. The study employs the survey method of data collection using key-informant interviews. It adopts a qualitative descriptive method to analyse the data. The paper found that over 80% of the population in the study area rely on agriculture, and that there are numerous contestations over land use and ownership. Unfortunately, still, adjudication of these cases lingers unnecessarily, resulting in distrust, antagonisms and violent confrontations. The study recommends fundamental reform of Nigeria’s justice system as it relates to land matters to ensure more equitable distribution of land. Such reform should include the introduction of special courts as well as the mainstreaming of traditional institutions, local and ad-hoc arbitrators into the dispute resolution mechanisms of land-related cases.
Topic:: Development, Justice, Peacebuilding, and Land Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

693. The Transitional Justice Policy of Ethiopia and its Relevance for Peacebuilding

Author:: Yohannes Haile Getahun
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article deals with the peacebuilding impact of the Transitional Justice Policy of Ethiopia (TJPE) through an explanatory case study approach that contextualises the discourse of transitional justice and peace within the specific context of Ethiopia. Drawing on existing literature on the peace implications of transitional justice systems, the study develops a framework that emphasises the need for a balanced approach that integrates retributive and restorative justice mechanisms. Foregrounding the TJPE, the article identifies both prospects and limitations. The processes of truth-seeking and accountability for past, recent and present human rights abuses, fighting the culture of impunity and building social trust are the primary prospects. However, certain factors could undermine the peacebuilding contributions of the transitional justice programme. These factors include political capture, the politics of striking mutual innocence pacts, predicaments of political legitimacy, harmonising reconciliation and justice and ongoing conflicts. Generally, beyond the textual and institutional design, the political system and its dynamics have much bearing on the effectiveness of the TJPE in bringing about durable peace.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Impunity, Reconciliation, Peacebuilding, and Political Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

694. The Domestic Impact of the ICERD on TRC-Related Prosecutions in South Africa: A Story of Lost Opportunities for Post-Apartheid Justice

Author:: Ntokozo Sibanyoni
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD/the Convention) is a response to apartheid in pre-democratic South Africa. Article 6 obliges states to provide reparations to victims of discrimination. However, 31 years into its democracy, South Africa is haunted by a poor record of prosecuting apartheid. While popular discussions focus on the failure of the government to prosecute, this article focuses on the extent of the Convention’s domestic impact on the prosecutions. This contribution uses a working definition of domestic impact, which emphasises the efforts of all stakeholders in the state’s reporting process. The contribution relies on data collected through desktop research and semi-structured interviews with people working on race-related issues, to assess the extent to which article 6 of the Convention has been realized. Arguing that the Convention has made a delayed and limited impact on prosecutions, the article discusses factors that have hindered impact and provides recommendations towards the realisation of article 6 of the Convention.
Topic:: Apartheid, Transitional Justice, Justice, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

695. Conflict Resolution Mechanisms for Strengthening Land Tenure Security: A Case of Mvomero District, Tanzania

Author:: Samwel Alananga and Christoncia Joyness
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: In Tanzania, conflicts over land resources between pastoralists and farmers have been pervasive, especially in Mvomero District despite numerous efforts by the government to resolve them. This study is based on secondary data concerning the persistence of conflict, complemented by thematic analysis of six key informant interviews from three villages in Mvomero District: Kambala, Bungoma and Mkindo. The goal is to understand the evolving nature of land conflicts, the effectiveness of conflict-resolution mechanisms and the impacts on both farmers and pastoralists. The findings reveal that efforts to address land conflicts are hindered by several factors: inadequate resources, low levels of knowledge and awareness about land matters, the absence of village land councils, a lack of Village Land Use Plans (VLUPs), especially in pastoralist-dominated villages and insufficient and uncoordinated information. Drawing on theories of principled negotiation and conflict resolution, this paper argues that there is no single resolution strategy suitable for all conflicts, as each setting is unique even within the same village. Nonetheless, coercive methods remain common, with paramilitary and government officials often employed instead of negotiated solutions. Since this approach offers only short-term relief, land conflicts tend to recur repeatedly. In light of these findings, the paper recommends that stakeholders should follow up initial coercive interventions with negotiated approaches to ensure long-term stability. To this end, the effective implementation of the Village Land Act (1999) and the Land Disputes Courts Act (2019) requires the development of operational guidelines and tools that support negotiated solutions in line with the principles of principled negotiation theory.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Land Conflict, Land Tenure Security, and Farmer-Pastoralist Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

696. Analysing the Root Causes of Armed Conflicts in Northern Ethiopia

Author:: Alemu Mullaw
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Armed conflicts that need constructive measurement are rampant in various corners of the world. Currently, there are wars occurring in Europe, Asia, and Africa. Armed conflict can be understood as a battle between two parties, at least one of which is a state government, over a government or territory, using armed forces.1 The notion of conflict is evolving along with understandings of states, borders, relationships, actors, issues, and globalisation. Mary Kaldor described this expanded understanding as ‘New Wars,’ which applies to the 2020 Ethiopian armed conflict.2 Ethiopia maintained its independence during the colonial period and emerged with its present borders and ethnic make-up at the end of the 19th century due to the territorial expansion undertaken by Emperor Menelik II (1889-1913). However, the history of the country is riddled with intra- and inter-state conflicts and it has experienced acute political and economic contradictions.3 The country has been a federal republic since 1994, with the official name of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, subdivided into nine ethnically based regional states (Killil), each with a large degree of autonomy, and two autonomous cities with regional state status, namely Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa.4
Topic:: Security, Peace, Armed Conflict, and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

697. The Role of the African Union Peace and Security Council in Promoting the Responsible use of Artificial Intelligence for Refugees and Asylum Seekers in Africa

Author:: Victor Obinna Chukwuma
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Petra Molnar wrote that the development of technology ‘reinforces power asymmetries between countries’ and influences ‘our thinking around which countries can push for innovation, while other spaces like conflict zones and refugee camps become sites of experimentation.’1 Africa has been dealing with a perennial refugee crisis. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), ‘Around 30 million internally displaced persons, refugees and asylum-seekers live in Africa, representing almost one-third of the world’s refugee population.’2 As artificial intelligence (AI) is gradually reshaping the way things are done all over the world, governments are turning to novel technologies to streamline processes and reduce administrative burdens and costs in public service delivery, including critical decisions affecting the rights of refugees and asylum seekers. While the deployment of AI for border control seems to be more pronounced in developed countries, it is gradually gaining traction in Africa. African governments are exploring the best ways to harness AI, not just for economic growth but also for improving their security architecture and border control. Indeed, AI can be of immense assistance to Africa in managing the refugee crisis. However, there is a need for deeper engagement on how these technologies may compromise the rights of refugees and asylum seekers in Africa, as it is being done in developed countries today. Whereas a harmful use of AI in refugee settings in Africa can exacerbate the existing crisis, a responsible use of AI can have alleviatory impacts. This research examines the role of the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) in this regard.
Topic:: Refugees, Artificial Intelligence, UN Security Council, Asylum, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa

698. Critical Reflections on SADC’s approach to Regional Security: The case of SAMIM

Author:: Chikondi Chidzanja
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article is situated in the broader context of the challenges that peacekeeping, peace enforcement and counterinsurgency (COIN) missions are facing in executing their mandates. Although these challenges have been discussed mainly within the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping contexts, they have extended to the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) context. These challenges are noticeable in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, where the Southern African Development Community (SADC) deployed a mission, the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), with a counterterrorism mandate. This piece reflects on the lessons from the intervention for both SADC and its member states. The lessons focus on the host state’s consent and cooperation, self-funding, coordination with partners and lastly, host state ownership and responsibility for citizen protection. Both at the macro and micro level, the SAMIM intervention provides critical insights into the emerging ad hoc model for RECs as they assume responsibility for security sector governance architecture following gridlocks in the UN Security Council (UNSC) and the crisis of multilateralism. Following the UN General Assembly in 2024, which will be remembered for its overarching theme ‘Pact for the Future,’ the piece focuses on how SADC should navigate the aforementioned lessons to enhance sustainable peace and security in the region. Not many studies have focused on how host state consent, self-funding, coordination with partners, and host state ownership and responsibility can affect REC missions like SAMIM. The key question is the commitment of member states to the use of multilateral regional institutions and how these institutions promote the use of their frameworks to tackle common regional security issues while maintaining local agency. Broadly, some questions are: How can SADC and its member states work towards closer cooperation with consistency and in an adaptive manner without compromising the overall mandate of SADC as a regional body? At the same time, how can SADC member states stop viewing SADC as an afterthought in the peace and security sector?
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Counter-terrorism, Protection, Regional Security, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

699. Conflict Resolution by the African Union: Encounters of Peacekeeping Efforts in Somalia

Author:: Jacqueline Nakaiza and Charlotte Karungi Mafumbo
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Two of the goals set by the African Union (AU) were to promote peace, security and stability for socioeconomic development and to draft an agenda to tackle African problems. The aspiration of African Solutions for African Problems, under the norms of the responsibility to protect (R2P), prompted the AU to take up this responsibility in Somalia. Since the collapse of the state in 1991, Somalia has perpetually failed to secure its territory and protect its populace from self-destruction. It has also failed to respond to disasters, such as famine caused by drought. Somalia is suffering instability caused by Islamist groups who can easily operate in the country due to the absence of state institutions. When the United Nations (UN) Security Council is unwilling to act in a situation crying out for intervention, such as in Somalia, it authorises regional or sub-regional organisations under Chapter VIII of the UN Charter to intervene.1 The Security Council passed Resolution 1744 (2007) under this clause, mandating the AU to deploy troops to Somalia in 2007.2 The initial mandate to stabilise the country and pave the way for a UN Peace Operation was six months long.3 Regarding interventions, Article 4(h) of the AU Constitutive Act clearly states: ‘the AU has the right to intervene in a Member State according to a decision of the Assembly in respect of grave circumstances, namely: war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity.’4 As such, the protection of the fundamental rights of citizens is not a purely domestic concern and sovereignty cannot shield repressive states from intervention by the AU. This article in the AU Constitutive Act was invoked after the reluctance of the international community to intervene in Somalia.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

700. Artisanal Mining in Zimbabwe: A Complex Narrative of Balancing Economic Gains and Social Strife

Author:: Rumbidzaishe Matambo
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) ‘refers to mining by individuals, groups, families or cooperatives with minimal or no mechanisation, often in the informal (illegal) sector of the market’.1 A distinction can, however, be made between artisanal mining and small-scale mining. Artisanal and small-scale miners rely on basic tools and limited technology to mine gemstones and key minerals and metals such as gold, cobalt, tin, tungsten, and tantalum.2 These materials are vital to the global economy, supporting essential products such as computers, mobile phones, aircraft, medical devices, and rechargeable batteries.3 A significant share of these metals is sourced through ASM. Driven by the steady demand for these goods, artisanal miners persist in their work, often facing dangerous and exploitative conditions, including child labour and other human rights violations.4 Due to limited resources, ASM activities are usually confined to surface and shallow underground mining, representing the simpler side of small-scale mining.5 Historically, ASM is a traditional practice with roots stretching back centuries across various cultures. Since ancient times, artisanal mining has been a core economic activity, supplying materials for adornments, tools, and construction, and was the dominant form of mining until the Industrial Revolution.6
Topic:: Crime, Mining, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS