Publication Year: within 5 Years - CIAO Search Results

401. Starr Forum: Sudan Under Fire

Author:: Mai Hassan, Cameron Hudson, Kholood Khair, and Ahmed Kodouda
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: Sudan Under Fire: Monday, April 7th, 2025. As we enter year three of civil war, experts discussed the global crisis that has been too often ignored. Moderator: Mai Hassan is an associate professor of political science at MIT and the faculty director of the MIT-Africa Program at the Center for International Studies. Her work examines topics that span across authoritarian regimes, bureaucracy and public administration, and contentious politics. Speakers: Cameron Hudson is a senior fellow in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Prior to multiple other academic posts, Cameron served in the US government, including as an intelligence analyst in the Africa Directorate at the Central Intelligence Agency. Kholood Khair is the founder and director of Confluence Advisory, a 'think and do tank' formerly based in Khartoum that works on three priority policy areas: peace and security, economy, and governance. She is currently at Yale University as a visiting fellow. Ahmed Kodouda is a policy, advocacy, and communication specialist. He has an extensive background in conflict and post conflict settings and experience working with and consulting for governmental and NGOs around the world, including in Sudan, Afghanistan, and Kenya.
Topic:: Security, Civil War, International Security, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

402. Vulnerabilities and Resilience of Electrical Grids in Wartime: Lessons from Ukraine

Author:: Volodymyr Kudrytskyi and Mariana Budjeryn
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Vulnerabilities and Resilience of Electrical Grids in Wartime: Lessons from Ukraine: Tuesday, March 11, 2025. The Russian assault on Ukraine’s electrical generating capacity and transmission grid as part of its full-scale war against Ukraine, is unprecedented in the history of warfare. Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the former CEO of Ukraine’s electric grid operator Ukrenergo, discussed the challenges of securing Ukraine’s energy system throughout the war, lessons for mitigating grid vulnerabilities, and prospects for rebuilding a more resilient energy system in Ukraine and Europe. Speaker: Volodymyr Kudrytskyi served as the CEO and Chairman of the Management Board of the Ukrainian Transmission System Operator Ukrenergo from February 2020 until September 2024. Under his leadership, Ukraine’s electrical grid has undergone preparations for synchronization with the power system of Continental Europe ENTSO-E and emergency synchronization with ENTSO-E in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. From February 24, 2022, Mr. Kudrytskyi and his team at Ukrenergo managed the Ukrainian power grid through unprecedented Russian attacks against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Previously, Mr. Kudrytskyi held leadership roles in key Ukrainian energy sector companies, including Naftogaz and Ukrtransnafta. Mr. Kudrytskyi holds a degree in international finance from Kyiv National Economic University. Moderator: Mariana Budjeryn is the author of Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2023) and a winner of the 2024 William E. Colby Military Writers’ Award, the first female in the award’s 25-year history. Dr. Budjeryn is a member of the Committee on International Security and Arms Control of the National Academies of Sciences and a senior nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Topic:: Electricity, Resilience, Vulnerability, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

403. Starr Forum: Syria and the Middle East: What’s Next?

Author:: Marwa Daoudy, Rana Khoury, and Richard Nielsen
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: Syria and the Middle East: What’s Next?: Tuesday, February 25th, 2025. A conversation with leading experts on Syria and the Middle East as they explore the hopes and challenges of a post-Assad regime. Speakers: Marwa Daoudy is an associate professor of international relations at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service (SFS) and the Seif Ghobash Chair in Arab Studies at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS). Her research and teaching focus on critical and human security studies, environmental and climate security, climate justice, water politics, negotiation theory, peace negotiations, and Middle East politics. Rana Khoury is an assistant professor of political science and a faculty member of the Center for South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Her expertise includes comparative and international politics, with a focus on nonviolent conflict processes including activism, displacement, and humanitarian response. Her geographic focus is on the Middle East, especially the Levant. Moderator: Richard Nielsen is an associate professor of political science at MIT and the faculty director of the MIT-Arab World Program at the Center for International Studies. He studies and teaches on Middle East politics, international relations, religion, gender, political violence, quantitative methodology, and interpretive methodology.
Topic:: Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, and Political Transition
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

404. GR&P Seminar: US-China Science Cooperation and Chinese American Scientists in the Trump 2.0 Era

Author:: Yasheng Huang, Gang Chen, David Goldston, and Mihaela Papa
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Global Research & Policy Seminar: US-China Science Cooperation and Chinese American Scientists in the Trump 2.0 Era: Tuesday, February 11, 2025. As the new Trump administration shapes its China policies, how is the United States navigating scientific collaboration with China? What are the implications for Chinese American and China-focused scientists? Two Chinese American MIT faculty members and the Director of the MIT Washington Office shared their insights on the opportunities and challenges of advancing scientific progress in the context of an increasingly complex and contested US-China relationship. Speakers: Yasheng Huang, Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management, MIT Sloan; Faculty Director MIT-China Program Gang Chen, Carl Richard Soderberg Professor of Power Engineering, MechE; Director, Pappalardo Micro and Nano Engineering Laboratories David Goldston, Director, MIT Washington Office Moderator: Mihaela Papa, Director of Research and Principal Research Scientist, MIT Center for International Studies
Topic:: Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Donald Trump, and Collaboration
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

405. Analysis of the Organizational Performance of a Strategic Defense Company in Brazil: Conceptions from the Perspective of Defense Studies in Europe

Author:: Marcus Vinicius Goncalves da Silva
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This study proposes, based on scientific production carried out in Europe, the adaptation of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) method by Kaplan and Norton, for the analysis of the performance of Brazilian Strategic Defense Companies (SDC). The investigation is carried out in a comparative way, in two stages. In the first one, a bibliometric research was carried out to identify the characteristics of the European Defense Industrial Base. In the second stage of the research, the BSC-Defense indicators, developed based on the literature found, were empirically analyzed in a Strategic Defense Company in Brazil. The results indicate that the BSC-Defense instrument can serve as a guiding element for Strategic Defense Companies, as it includes an integrated and dynamic set of capabilities, processes and activities related to the strategic performance of the organization.
Topic:: Defense Industry, Performance Evaluation, and Strategic Defense Companies (SDC)
Political Geography:: Europe, Brazil, and South America

406. 30 years of the Advisory Opinion on the Legality of Nuclear Weapons: eppur si muove

Author:: Lucas Carlos Lima
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: The 1996 Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons remains a pivotal reference in international law and disarmament debates. While the Opinion did not categorically prohibit nuclear weapons, its reasoning has been widely cited in legal and diplomatic arenas. This study examines the Opinion’s long-term influence through three key elements: its incorporation into state practice, its role in international litigation, and its impact on the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Employing a methodology centered on primary sources, this research evaluates the Opinion’s relevance in shaping international legal norms and assesses whether it still accurately reflects the state of international law on nuclear disarmament.
Topic:: International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, and International Court of Justice (ICJ)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

407. What makes a legislator promote or thwart trade liberalization in developing democracies?

Author:: Simón Lodato, Andrés Dockendorff Dockendorff, and Dorotea López
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This paper investigates how ideological polarization and constituency factors influence legislators’ voting behaviour on Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). We explore the Chilean case, where trade policy has recently become highly politicized, to test three key relationships. First, we argue that right-wing legislators are more likely to champion FTAs when trade becomes a highly politicized issue, as the ratification of the CPTPP shows. Conversely, when trade is less politically salient, right-wing legislators are less likely to vote favourably for FTAs. Second, legislators representing regions with a high concentration of workers in tradable sectors are less likely to support trade liberalization, as it can put jobs at risk in their districts. Our results show that ideology explains legislators’ support to FTAs but only when the trade policy is politicized. Also, the probability of voting in favour of FTAs decreases as the proportion of workers in tradable sectors within the region increases. From a comparative perspective, the results highlight how the effect of politicization, observed mainly in European settings, is generalizable to a different set up: a presidential developing democracy.
Topic:: Ideology, Trade Liberalization, Trade Policy, Politicization, Legislators, and Free Trade Agreements
Political Geography:: South America and Chile

408. The Rise and Decline of Brazil as a Peacekeeper

Author:: Geraldine Rosas Duarte, Letícia Carvalho, and Dawisson Belem Lopes
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: The article investigates the trajectory and transformations of Brazil’s involvement in UN peacekeeping operations, seeking to explain the recent hesitation to assume a leadership role in contrast to previous periods, particularly during the two initial presidential terms of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2011). It highlights the influence of international and domestic factors on Brazil’s new stance, including changes in the nature of UN peacekeeping missions and the impact of the deep politico-economic crisis Brazil experienced between 2013 and 2022. The shifts in foreign policy during the governments of Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro resulted in a more isolationist view and a significant reduction in Brazil’s participation in peacekeeping operations. The article concludes by analyzing the need for a strategic reassessment by Brazil of the dynamics of peacekeeping operations and the domestic challenges faced by the new Lula da Silva government to realign its future participation with its national interests and capabilities.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

409. Strengthening Health System Response to Sexual Violence in Afghanistan

Author:: Barbara Buckinx, Charu Lata Hogg, and Ila Prabhuram
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: This policy report summarizes insights from a workshop organized by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD) at Princeton University on November 5, 2024. The workshop, titled “Strengthening Health System Response to Sexual Violence in Afghanistan,” was co-organized by All Survivors Project (ASP) and cosponsored by the SPIA Afghanistan Policy Lab and the Center for Health and Wellbeing, and was held under the Chatham House Rule.
Topic:: Women, Sexual Violence, Public Health, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

410. A Pacifism for Our Times

Author:: Antonio Patriota
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Growing trends of unilateralism are encouraging violence and threatening a systemic breakdown of international law and order. Change must come, and soon
Topic:: International Law, Violence, International Order, and Unilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

411. Is Israel a Liberal Democracy?

Author:: Raphael Cohen-Almagor
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Israel’s democratic principles are under threat both internally and externally. Its long-term survival is to integrate fully into the Middle East, and the key to that integration is to peacefully resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Topic:: Democracy, Rule of Law, Liberalism, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

412. Toward Anti-racism Education in the African Context

Author:: George Sefa Dei and Niketa Afia Peters
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: What would African educational systems look like without colonial influence? Answering such questions may guide educators in the various communities of the African continent to imagine something re-centered around indigenous experiences. Anti-racism is an important part of that answer
Topic:: Education, Colonialism, Indigenous, and Racism
Political Geography:: Africa

413. Human Rights and Constitutionalism in Africa: Progress has been Achieved, but More is Needed

Author:: Ottilia Anna Maunganidze
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The institutional human rights and constitutionalist framework in Africa has been constantly evolving through the Organization of African Unity’s history and transformation into the African Union. In the face of contemporary challenges in the form of coups, unconstitutional changes in government, and more, African policymakers must focus on grounding their policy within the normative framework of the Union
Topic:: Human Rights, Norms, African Union, Constitutionalism, and Organization of African Unity
Political Geography:: Africa

414. Pursuing Unity: Pan-Africanism in Practice

Author:: Stephen Okhonmina
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: History has proven that a completely politically unified Africa may be impossible to achieve; instead, integration should be pursued with a more limited goal of facilitating faster economic, social, and political progress
Topic:: History, Regional Integration, Economic Development, and Pan-Africanism
Political Geography:: Africa

415. Enabling Evolution: The Role of Knowledge Production in the Development of African Unity

Author:: Samuel M. Makinda and Angela Leahy
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Knowledge is power; by harnessing knowledge production, the Organization of African Unity and its successor, the African Union, have set the continent on a new path.
Topic:: Regional Integration, African Union, Regional Politics, and Organization of African Unity
Political Geography:: Africa

416. Israel, Hamas, and the Burdens of History

Author:: Michael J. Reimer
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The violence of the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent retaliatory war on Gaza have reignited historical collective traumas and existential fears among Jewish-Israelis, the Jewish Diaspora, and Palestinians
Topic:: Diaspora, Trauma, Hamas, Palestinians, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

417. From Ideas to Policy: Q&A with Ibrahim Awad

Author:: Omar Auf
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Is it possible to imagine, let alone move toward a different global political-economic order? Ibrahim Awad believes conferences and the exchange of ideas have a role to play in moving such a reality forward
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Politics, Neoliberalism, Interview, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

418. On Senegali Nationhood and African Unity: In Conversation with Mark Deets

Author:: Omar Auf and Mark Deets
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: How is Senegal’s recently-elected young president faring in his efforts to navigate a complex local and regional ethno-political landscape? And what echoes from the past inform such efforts? Historian of West Africa answers these questions
Topic:: Ethnicity, Interview, African Union, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Senegal

419. The Elusive Saudi-Israeli Normalization Deal: Why an Agreement is Likely to Fall Short of Expectations

Author:: Robert Mogielnicki
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: A deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel will likely happen eventually but is unlikely to transform the Middle East
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, Abraham Accords, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

420. Trump’s Alternate Reality in the Middle East

Author:: Hussein Ibish
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: With his recent foray into drastic measures to resolve the Israel-Palestine continuum, could there be a method to the madness of King Trump?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Real Estate, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

421. President Trump’s Policies in the Middle East

Author:: Raphael Cohen-Almagor
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The U.S. president’s pragmatic approach and his out-of-the-box bold ideas may bring a positive change to both Israel and the Palestinians provided they will be translated into action plans carefully and through sensitive communication with all concerned stakeholders
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

422. A Resurgent Trump Returns to a Turbulent Middle East

Author:: Paul Salem
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Trump’s unpredictable yet forceful leadership is entering a region in flux, offering both challenges and opportunities for his second term
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

423. Donald Trump and the Art of Bending Reality

Author:: Gabriele Cosentino
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The gravity-defying political comeback of Donald Trump is the pinnacle of the chaotic career of an extreme risk taker with little concern for established norms. But his willingness to upend rules and bend reality to suit his vision might push U.S. and global politics to the breaking point
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Norms, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

424. Trump’s Return: What It Could Mean for Palestine and the Region

Author:: Ramzy Baroud
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s return to the White House in the context of the Gaza war and other regional conflicts raises questions regarding his approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

425. Trump 2.0: Where Rhetoric Meets Reality

Author:: Diana Bartelli Carlin
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The new president has made big promises, but can he keep them?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Rhetoric
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

426. Round Two: Trump’s Foreign Policy Takes on New Challenges

Author:: William B. Quandt
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Trump will have to manage the continuing conflict in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and the rising power of China as he navigates the beginning of his second term
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: China, Ukraine, Middle East, and United States of America

427. American Netizens Worry For the Future of TikTok

Author:: Sydney Wise
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The temporary banning of TikTok in the United States in January prompted concern over the politicization of tech platforms. The two likeliest paths forward for TikTok represent alternate visions of the relationship between Big Tech and government
Topic:: Science and Technology, Social Media, TikTok, and Politicization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

428. The Consequences and Prospects of Israel’s Ban of UNRWA

Author:: Kjersti G. Berg, Søren Arnberg, and Lex Takkenberg
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: As the UN agency’s operations continue to be obstructed, its outright ban will continue the perpetuation of severe human suffering and have multidimensional ramifications, from illegality on the international level to political considerations regarding the tenuous ceasefire
Topic:: Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, 2023 Gaza War, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

429. In Jordan, Trump is a Divisive Figure

Author:: Laila Shadid
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Before Trump officially took office, some Jordanians believed that he was the “lesser of two evils”. Now, two months into his presidency, Trump has few fans in Amman
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

430. Longer Sticks and Shorter Carrots: How the U.S. is Changing its Engagement in MENA

Author:: Amr Adly
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The United States’ approach to achieving international hegemony is shifting away from trade and investments back toward bombs and missiles
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Investment, Trade, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

431. The View from Africa Before and After the U.S. Elections—Q&A with Mark Deets

Author:: Omar Auf and Mark Deets
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Trump’s re-election brought massive changes to many aspects of the United States and the world. What led to Trump regaining the presidency? What will the reverberations look like in West Africa? Omar Auf sat with historian Mark Deets to find out
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Interview, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and United States of America

432. A feminist analysis of Australia’s International Gender Equality Strategy

Author:: Australian Feminist Foreign Policy Coalition (AFFPC)
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:: AFFPC’s submission on the International Gender Equality Strategy centred around a call for Australia to take an explicitly feminist approach and made a series of recommendations for how such an approach could be brought to life through practical steps. In this Issues Paper, we have evaluated the extent to which the strategy has responded to our recommendations. Despite appearing to fail at the first hurdle—the strategy does not take an explicitly feminist approach nor even use the word feminist—there remains some promising signals. Of the 21 recommendations made by the AFFPC in our submission on how the strategy could take a feminist approach in practice, two have been mostly integrated, 8 integrated in part, and 11 not integrated in a meaningful way or at all. The most glaring gap is the lack of an explicit acknowledgement that gender equality requires equality and rights for gender diverse, trans, nonbinary and intersex people, with the strategy instead walking back from its 2016 recognition of the same and using the language “gender equality means equality for all people.” This is backed up by a default to binary language of “women and girls” or “men and boys” whenever specific gender identities are named, although there is a text box recognising LGBTQIA+ rights as a priority.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Feminism, LGBT+, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

433. ASEAN-ROK Maritime Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Haikal Amran
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Maritime Institute of Malaysia
Abstract:: Strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific has taken centre stage in today’s global geopolitical and economic landscape, with key players across the region now increasingly strengthening maritime cooperation with each other to uphold regional peace and economic stability. After all, the Indo-Pacific region hosts critical sea lines of communication (SLOCs) instrumental to international trade, with vital yet precarious maritime corridors, such as the Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea (SCS). In response to this importance, two key players of the region, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), have both reaffirmed commitments to increase maritime cooperation through the ASEAN-ROK Plan of Action (POA) 2021–2025 and the Korea-ASEAN Solidarity Initiative (KASI). Both the POA and KASI outlined an ambitious and broad scope of maritime cooperation to be achieved. Within the grand scheme of things, Track Two discussion plays a pivotal role as one of the many instruments to foster this cooperation, hence serving as an informal yet influential platform to build trust, exchange knowledge, and explore practical solutions on issues ranging from maritime security to sustainable ocean governance between ASEAN and ROK maritime experts.
Topic:: Economics, Maritime, ASEAN, Cooperation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Indo-Pacific

434. Navigating Malaysia’s National Shipping Carbon Accounting Framework towards Alignment with the IMO GHG Reduction Strategy

Author:: Egbert Adolf Naintin, Syuhaida Ismail, and Datuk Hj. Dickson Dollah
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Maritime Institute of Malaysia
Abstract:: Malaysia is taking significant strides in modernising how it accounts for carbon emissions in the shipping sector, aligning with its ongoing International Maritime Organization (IMO) lobbying strategy and reinforcing its commitment to global maritime sustainability. Nonetheless, this progress is not just about keeping up with international standards, yet also about ensuring that Malaysia plays a proactive role in climate action for future generations. By shifting from an outdated method of self-regulated individual ships to establishing a proactive national initiative, Malaysia is paving the way for a more sustainable shipping sector.
Topic:: Climate Change, Maritime, Sustainability, Carbon Emissions, Shipping, and International Maritime Organization (IMO)
Political Geography:: Malaysia and Indo-Pacific

435. Climate Change and El Nino Phenomenon Heat Up Malaysian Waters

Author:: Thaarshini Paramasivan
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Maritime Institute of Malaysia
Abstract:: Malaysia has recorded intense peaks of temperature due to a heatwave in the Southeast Asia region in 2024. The heatwave sweeping across the nation had a significant impact on human health, resulting in a concerning rise in heat-related illnesses. By April 2024, a total of 45 cases of heat-related illnesses, including two fatalities from heatstroke, have been reported. Alongside the health risks, significant impacts were also observed through the Malaysian waters, including a series of algae blooms and mass coral bleaching affecting the country. These events, once considered rare occurrences, are becoming more frequent and severe, largely due to the changing climate and rising sea temperatures. These issues are not just ecological concerns but have also begun to affect the economic activities tied t o t he m arine environment, such as aquaculture, specifically at the Peninsular Malaysia, which put pressure on Malaysia’s coastal economies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Health, El Niño, and Heat
Political Geography:: Malaysia and Southeast Asia

436. Gender-Based Violence and Sources of Support in the Middle East and North Africa (2023-2024)

Author:: Arab Barometer
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: According to reports from the World Bank, 40 percent of women across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have experienced violence from their partner at least once in their lifetime. A report from the OECD found that violence against women in MENA increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings are in-line with the findings from the most recent Arab Barometer 2023-2024 survey, in which a plurality of citizens from nearly every country perceive that violence against women has increased in the past year. Governments across the region are taking actions to combat the rise in violence but more remains to be done. Despite the dire circumstances, there are points of hope in Arab Barometer’s findings as well. In particular, nearly all citizens can point to at least one source of support for women that face abuse. While citizens are highly unlikely to say a woman facing abuse cannot find support, the most commonly cited sources of support are familial rather than institutional. Specifically, support from male family members is seen as far more readily available than support from hospitals or clinics. Relying on family rather than institutions for support is complicated. At best, a lack of institutional support may indicate that citizens do not view the government as particularly invested in supporting women facing gender-based violence. Increasing institutionalized support through funding and outreach with local organizations or healthcare facilities could provide more security for abused women.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Gender Based Violence, Survey, COVID-19, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

437. Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall So Rapidly? Lessons from the Korean War

Author:: Joseph Gagnon and Asher Rose
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The speed of both the rise and fall of US inflation in 2021–23 took many economists by surprise. This paper shows that the rise of COVID era inflation reflects three independent shocks: a plethora of pandemic-related shifts in demand patterns and supply disruptions; the largest commodity price surge in 40 years caused by the Ukraine war; and strong monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic, which kept labor markets tight. This paper documents the transmission of these shocks through the main components of private consumption: durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. The rapid fall of inflation reflects the credibility of the Federal Reserve’s commitment to low inflation, something that was not apparent during the inflationary shocks of the 1970s but that was important during the Korean War inflation of 1950–51. Another similarity with the Korean War episode is the temporary surge in demand for durable goods.
Topic:: Economy, Inflation, Korean War, COVID-19, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

438. Dismantling the License Raj: The Long Road to India’s 1991 Trade Reforms

Author:: Douglas A. Irwin
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: In July 1991, India began to dismantle its long-standing, highly restrictive import control regime and move toward a more open economy. How were policymakers able to dislodge and replace an entrenched system with powerful vested interests behind it? Standard explanations for policy change—pressure from domestic producer interests, shifts in political power, or conditionality by international financial institutions—do not explain the dramatic transformation that took place. Instead, reform-minded technocrats persuaded political leaders to reject what had been a standard response to balance of payments pressure (import repression to avoid a devaluation) and embrace a new approach (exchange rate adjustment and a reduction of import restrictions). This paper explores the economic and political context behind the country’s dramatic policy transformation. India’s experience highlights the crucial link between exchange rate policy and trade policy
Topic:: Foreign Exchange, Reform, Tariffs, Trade, Imports, and Exchange Rates
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

439. Managing an Aging Society: Learning the Right Lessons from Japan

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: As the world and especially other Asian and European economies enter the accelerated process of aging that Japan experienced from the mid-1990s onwards, learning the right policy lessons from Japan’s response is crucial. This paper argues that, overall, Japan has done relatively well by implementing a response that—even if often belatedly so—has mitigated some of the worst economic effects of aging. Japan has successfully raised domestic labor utilization and immigration levels, integrated its economy more with the rest of the world, and implemented a fiscal policy based on debt expansion that has seen debt costs decline. Other advanced Asian economies and China now face aging processes materially faster than Japan’s and will age simultaneously rather than alone like Japan. In addition, many advanced economies will age during a period of much slower global economic growth and less rather than more global trade and investment opening than what Japan faced from the mid-1990s. These less benign international economic and political circumstances mean that many advanced economies will likely not age with the same relative political and economic stability seen in Japan in the last 30 years. In time, this paper argues, “Japanification” will no longer mean a slowly developing economic disaster but will come to mean competent management of a very difficult economic transition.
Topic:: Debt, Demographics, Labor Issues, Immigration, Fiscal Policy, Aging, and Productivity
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

440. The Role of Long Histories of “Lived Experience” in the COVID-Era Inflationary Surge

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon and Steven Kamin
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: A rough consensus has evolved around the causes of the COVID-era inflationary spike: the disruption in supply chains; the shift in demand from services to goods; the surge in commodity prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; and the pandemic fiscal stimulus programs. In this paper, we highlight an additional factor influencing the incidence of pandemic inflation across countries—their long histories of “lived experience” with inflation. We show that more than half of the variation in inflation across countries during the 2020–23 period can be explained by their earlier levels of inflation. Even controlling for inflation in the 2016–19 period, countries with higher inflation in the 2000–2015 period had higher COVID-era inflation, and the effect of long-lagged inflation is both economically and statistically significant. These long histories of lived experience dominated other policy measures to control inflation, including inflation targets and central bank independence. The influence of long-lagged inflation history appears to be greatest during periods of heightened volatility; it was less important in explaining the cross-country pattern of inflation during the more tranquil period immediately preceding the pandemic.
Topic:: Economy, Inflation, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Global Focus

441. The Effects of US-China Cooperation on Fentanyl Markets and Overdose Deaths

Author:: Marcus Noland, Julieta Contreras, and Lucas Rengifo-Keller
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Drug overdose is the leading cause of death among Americans aged 15–44, exceeding heart disease, cancer, suicide, vehicular accidents, and COVID-19 in 2023. Most drug deaths are associated with fentanyl. This paper uses data on illicit drug prices to estimate reduced-form price equations of fentanyl, oxycodone, and alprazolam based on supply and demand, including hedonic characteristics. The results are used to estimate the relationship between fentanyl prices and overdoses. They suggest that the Chinese embargo on fentanyl shipments to the United States beginning in May 2019 raised street prices for a limited period, reducing fentanyl overdose deaths in the United States by roughly one-quarter over a three- to five-month period after the announcement.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Drugs, Opioid Crisis, Cooperation, and Fentanyl
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

442. Lessons for the European Central Bank from the 2021–23 Inflationary Episode

Author:: Pablo Hernández de Cos
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Since mid-2021, the euro area economy has gone through several shocks, leading to the highest inflation since the creation of the European Monetary Union. A forceful and persistent response from the European Central Bank, grounded in the monetary policy framework it agreed in 2021 ahead of the inflationary episode, has succeeded in bringing inflation down and delivering on the central bank’s price stability mandate. The framework will be reviewed in 2025, and it might conclude that there is no need for a drastic change. Nevertheless, this assessment should be compatible with identifying some areas for improvement. In particular, the 2021 review was primarily focused on the effective lower bound. The recent inflationary episode, together with high ongoing uncertainty, indicate that the articulation of monetary policy strategy frameworks should be robust to very different scenarios. Likely persistence of high levels of uncertainty over the next few years will also require an emphasis on flexibility to adapt to the magnitude, origin, and persistence of shocks. Unconditional forward guidance should be avoided. In addition, there might be a need to more clearly distinguish in the future, when possible, between quantitative easing for market functioning versus monetary stimulus, which could incentivize a careful assessment of the amount, duration, and structure of any asset purchase program. Communication also needs to be improved in relation to the level of uncertainty and its consequences for monetary policymaking with, for instance, greater use of scenarios and sensitivity analyses as appropriate. Improving forecasting/modeling tools, in particular when dealing with large supply shocks, and understanding the roles of different measures of inflation expectations should also be priorities.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and European Central Bank
Political Geography:: Europe

443. How Export Restrictions Threaten Economic Security

Author:: Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The fear that a foreign government will impose an export restriction that imperils another country’s economic and national security has driven part of the recent turn to industrial policy and the increased use of tariffs. Countries now worry about disruption not only to their access to energy but also to critical minerals, semiconductors, medical supplies, and other essential goods. Modern use of industrial and trade policy is thus often an attempt to move supply chains in the short term and to sustain them in those new places over the long term, in order to reduce national vulnerability to disruptions caused by export restrictions. However, achieving even modest forms of international cooperation on trade and industrial policy between countries seeking to improve their collective economic security will also require that these same countries take on new commitments to discipline their own use of export restrictions toward each other.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Tariffs, Exports, and Economic Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

444. Eight Principles for the 2025 Tax Policy Debate (that Republicans and Democrats Should Be Able to Agree On)

Author:: Kimberly A. Clausing
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which Congress passed in 2017, came with a built-in policy time bomb—several of the more popular provisions are set to expire on the last day of 2025. These tax cut expirations limited the cost of the law to meet the requirements of the budget reconciliation process and thereby avoid being blocked by a Senate filibuster. The bill's architects deliberately made the less popular provisions (corporate tax cuts) permanent, but they wagered that the more popular individual tax cuts could be extended when the time came. That time has arrived. Yet Congress faces daunting challenges in extending the expiring tax cuts this year, including their high costs, competing fiscal priorities, a fractious Republican caucus with narrow House and Senate majorities, and President Trump's mercurial demands. As the 2025 tax policy debate moves forward, Clausing offers eight principles that both parties should be able to agree on. Of course, actual agreement on these principles is far from likely in today's political environment. Still, she suggests "middle of the road" positions for those who would resuscitate bipartisan tax policy cooperation.
Topic:: Budget, Domestic Politics, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

445. Destined for Division? US and EU Responses to the Challenge of Chinese Overcapacity

Author:: Salih Bora, Mary Lovely, and Luis Simón
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Heightened concerns about China’s exports have intensified competitive pressures on producers and compelled American and European policymakers, government officials, and political leaders to try to counteract those concerns. President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on China by 145 percent is the most recent—and arguably most dramatic—example of broader concerns about Chinese overcapacity. The clash with China is particularly evident in sectors that US and European leaders have deemed essential for growth and security, charging that Chinese industrial subsidies, rather than comparative advantage, are the basis for the country’s export success. However, the European Union and the United States have taken different approaches to resolve tensions with China. The European Union seeks, at least for now, to preserve and adhere to global trading rules. By contrast, the United States has acted unilaterally (even before the second Trump administration) to defend its domestic production by engaging in a trade confrontation with China that, together with China’s retaliation, has rattled global financial markets. This Policy Brief explores these EU-US divisions, their reflection on trade and industrial policy, and prospects for coordinated action against Chinese overcapacity. The authors argue that the European Union can take the lead toward a resolution within the rules-based system while maintaining an open door to future US participation.
Topic:: European Union, Tariffs, Exports, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Europe, North America, and United States of America

446. Alignment or Misalignment? US and EU High-Tech Trade and Sanctions Policies toward China

Author:: Antonio Calcara and Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief focuses on the alignment or misalignment of the European Union and the United States on high-technology trade and sanctions vis-à-vis China. The Trump administration is likely to continue the aggressive US stance toward China in the technological realm, putting increasing pressure on its European allies to align with US policy. The Europeans, for their part, are in a difficult position: On the one hand, they are under pressure from the US government; on the other hand, the more Washington restricts Chinese trade, the more Chinese exporters will look to the European market to sell their manufactured goods. Increased competition from Chinese imports in Europe, especially in the automotive sector, could in turn trigger a political backlash that weakens support for transatlantic coordination on China.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Sanctions, European Union, Trade Policy, and Imports
Political Geography:: China, Asia, United States of America, and European Union

447. Significant, but Not Systemic: The Challenge of China’s Efforts to Rival Western Financial Predominance

Author:: Martin Chorzempa and Lukas Spielberger
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Despite worldwide concerns about the US dollar, the Chinese renminbi is not yet ready to be a serious contender for leading international currency status. This Policy Brief examines three of the most important Chinese approaches to increasing the renminbi’s role as an international settlement currency: promote bilateral swap agreements between the People's Bank of China and other central banks; create international payment systems that do not involve the dollar, most notably the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System; and develop a central bank digital currency for alternative payment infrastructures. The authors find that Beijing’s efforts fall short of posing a systemic challenge to the dollar or to infrastructures like SWIFT. Nevertheless, these approaches have enabled China to use its currency for bilateral foreign policy. US and European policymakers should consider countering or attenuating these efforts, even though they have had limited success in increasing renminbi usage.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Central Bank, Currency, Digital Currency, and SWIFT
Political Geography:: China and Asia

448. Addressing Climate-Induced Loss and Damage in South Coastal Bangladesh: Bridging Local Insights and National Policy Interventions

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: This policy brief captures the key findings from Loss and Damage Policy Labs (LDPLs), a series of local and multi-level national policy dialogues held in Bangladesh in 2024. The LDPLs involved diverse stakeholders seeking to address climate-induced loss and damage (L&D) in Bangladesh, by fostering community-driven approaches and connecting local needs with the national policy landscape. The brief emphasizes local experiences in Bangladesh, particularly in its southern belt. It illustrates a case study from Barisal Division, which is representative of the wider vulnerable coastal region of Bangladesh. Addressing the climate risks threatening Bangladesh and its coastal region specifically requires a cohesive, inclusive, and evidence-based approach that integrates local perspectives into national frameworks while addressing both economic and non-economic loss and damage (NELD). Priorities include fostering community-driven, gender-sensitive solutions, enhancing capacities through training and robust assessment frameworks, and strengthening access to global climate finance through innovative mechanisms and transparent processes. By aligning local capacities, national policies, and international commitments and advocating for equitable support on global platforms, Bangladesh can pioneer effective climate resilience strategies, and serve as a model for other vulnerable nations.
Topic:: Climate Change, Climate Finance, Resilience, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

449. North Korea, Russia, and China: Past Cooperation & Future Prospects

Author:: Sydney Seiler
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Syd Seiler argues that recent developments in the relationship between North Korea, China, and Russia should be examined within the context of past interactions and North Korea’s geopolitical reality over the past several decades. North Korea’s pursuit of a distanced approach toward China and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, its post-Cold War management of the bilateral relationships while developing nuclear weapons, and contemporary developments within the North Korea-China-Russia triangle highlight limited shared interests and few signs of deliberate trilateralism. Despite skepticism regarding the durability of trilateralism, Seiler warns against neglecting the threat of collaboration and cooperation among the three countries. In particular, the evolving relationship between North Korea, China, and Russia holds the potential to harm the existing balance of power on the Korean Peninsula and embolden North Korea to believe that the use of force might be justified within the New Cold War structure. Seiler outlines three scenarios in which the evolution of trilateralism could lead to North Korea employing military force on the Korean Peninsula, highlighting the critical role of China and Russia in either restraining or encouraging North Korean revisionism. To properly respond to the dangerous transformation of the geopolitical environment, Seiler recommends the United States, South Korea, and like-minded states reinforce conventional and extended deterrence by convincing China and Russia that they will incur high costs for enabling North Korea’s coercive and revisionist behavior.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and North Korea

450. Siloed No More: The U.S.-ROK Alliance and a Taiwan Conflict

Author:: Clint Work
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: This project was motivated by and builds upon earlier research tracing the evolution and apparent alignment of U.S. and South Korean signaling on Taiwan, wherein the South Korean government adopted a more outspoken position regarding “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” and framed it in increasingly expansive terms—as a regional and global issue yet also directly linked to the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula. The previous research indicated the U.S.-ROK alliance faced a gap between its topline diplomatic rhetoric on Taiwan and its preparedness to navigate an actual conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan and the attendant risk of a simultaneous conflict on the Korean Peninsula. This project aimed to go beyond diplomatic rhetoric. Forty-two interviews were conducted from June 2024 to February 2025 in both Washington and Seoul. Most were in-person interviews with some conducted virtually or by written response via email. Through these interviews with U.S. and ROK current and former government officials, think tank experts, and academics—as well as open-source research—this project offers insight on the evolution and state of U.S.-ROK alliance discussions on a Taiwan conflict, key challenges obstructing such discussions, and critical variables or dynamics the alliance would have to navigate in the event of a conflict.
Topic:: Security, Alliance, Conflict, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

451. Untethered Sentiments: How Politics, Visibility, Perception, and Demographic Differences Shape American Views on Foreign Investment and Trade

Author:: Je Heon (James) Kim and Nils Wollesen Osterberg
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The key takeaways from this study are as follows: 1. Impact of Perception on Foreign Investment Attitudes: The study finds that individual perceptions of FDI at the state level play a crucial role in shaping attitudes toward investment. Individuals who perceive high Korean FDI or states where Korean FDI has more visibility tend to have more favorable views toward foreign investment compared to those in states with low FDI or visibility of such investments. This finding highlights the importance of strategic communication and visibility in shaping public perceptions of foreign investment. Simply increasing investment is not enough; companies and governments must actively promote their contributions to local economic growth and job creation to gain broader public support. 2. Variation in Support Based on Country of Origin: While most Americans view foreign investments as beneficial, attitudes differ based on the investing country’s origin. Investments from South Korea, Japan, and Germany, for instance, are viewed more favorably than investments from China and Russia. 3. Political and Ideological Divides in Trade and Tariff Attitudes: The data reveals partisan differences regarding trade and tariffs. According to our data, a substantial majority of Republicans—at the time of this survey—favor tariffs, mirroring their party leader’s policies. Meanwhile, a minority of Democrats expressed similar support for the use of tariffs. 4. Dissonance on Trade and Tariffs: Despite broad support for U.S. participation in international trade, a significant portion of respondents also favor maintaining or increasing tariffs, suggesting support for the theoretical benefits of trade and protectionism. Evidence suggests that partisan or ideological drivers may be at work. 5. Demographic Influences on Trade and Investment Opinions: Factors such as gender, age, income, and education significantly impact trade attitudes. Younger individuals, higher-income earners, and those with higher education levels are more supportive of open trade, while lower-income and older individuals are more skeptical. 6. Reciprocity as a Key Factor in Investment Policy Preferences: Many Americans favor restrictions on inbound foreign investment unless similar restrictions are removed for U.S. investments abroad, highlighting the importance of the reciprocal approach to trade and investment policies. 7. Limited Influence of Job Creation on Investment Preferences: While respondents recognize that foreign investments create jobs, this factor alone does not significantly sway opinions on investment restrictions, as other economic and political considerations often take precedence. 8. Defense Industrial Cooperation and Export Control Concerns: A majority of respondents support maintaining or increasing restrictions on defense-related industrial cooperation, emphasizing national security concerns over economic benefits from defense-related investments and trade.
Topic:: Politics, Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Trade, and Economic Security
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

452. Rule of law in Mozambique

Author:: Margherita Bove and Patricia Justino
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper examines the state and evolution of the rule of law in Mozambique, focusing on key dimensions such as voice and political participation, judicial independence and accessibility, corruption, access to basic services, personal security, and property rights. Drawing on Afrobarometer surveys, voting data, and conflict records, the paper offer insights into the perceptions and experiences of Mozambican citizens. The findings indicate a deterioration in institutional trust over the past two decades, alongside declining voter turnout in general elections and increasing election-related and political violence. Despite reforms aimed at improving judicial autonomy and accessibility, the legal system remains affected by inefficiencies and regional disparities. Citizens are often subject to bribery when accessing essential public services, and perception of corruption in key institutions remains high. Concerns about fairness and integrity in the land registration process can also weaken confidence in land security and property rights protection. The paper highlights the continued challenges Mozambique faces in consolidating the rule of law, exacerbated by legacies of conflict, political instability, and uneven socioeconomic development.
Topic:: Elections, Rule of Law, Institutions, Survey, and Trust
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

453. Inequality and agricultural structural change: Evidence from macro and microdata, 1950–present

Author:: Matthew Fisher-Post
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Since 1950, agricultural productivity has been increasing even as labourers leave agriculture. However, while average productivity of the sector has been converging, within-sector inequality has been increasing. Agricultural income inequality is still less than overall income inequality, but it measures significantly higher when we use higher-quality and more comprehensive survey data. This means not only to observe the entirety of household farm income, but also to measure the magnitude of capital income and corporate profits in the sector. Given the likely increase in agricultural inequality during the process of structural change, I show also the extent to which social protection programmes are both insufficient and poorly targeted for rural populations.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Food Security, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

454. How reliable are national accounts estimates of agricultural output?

Author:: Sam Jones and Marcelo Mucocana
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Measurement errors in macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP have been widely lamented, particularly in low-income contexts. This study investigates the reliability of one component of national accounts, agricultural sector output. Focusing first on the case of Mozambique, we use a series of 12 harmonized national agricultural micro-surveys to construct estimates of gross annual output in the sector. Compared to corresponding national accounts values for the period 2002–20, the micro-survey estimates are about 50% lower. A decomposition exercise indicates this gap is primarily driven by differences in base year levels, offset by higher rates of inflation observed in survey-based producer prices. Triangulating these estimates using household budget surveys, market price, and FAO production data, we find consistent support for the agricultural micro-survey estimates, suggesting real rates of total GDP growth may have been overestimated by 1 percentage point over the period. A cross-country comparison of national accounts and FAO production data indicates positive differences between estimates of agricultural output from the two sources are not unique to Mozambique, but with larger discrepancies among lower-income countries. Systematic investment in reliable and timely agricultural statistics is essential to track progress in the sector.
Topic:: Agriculture, GDP, Macroeconomics, and Survey
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

455. Social protection for Mozambique’s elderly: History, structure, and potential effectiveness

Author:: Sara Almeida, Hanna Berkel, Sam Jones, Patricia Justino, and Telça Massingue
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This study assesses the effectiveness of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the elderly component of the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB). Focusing on three key criteria— programme targeting, reliability, and materiality—we combine administrative data on the universe of beneficiaries with the complete records of the 2017 Population and Housing Census. Merging these datasets at the localidade level, we provide a highly granular view of programme coverage rates and payment delivery regularity. We estimate that in the best case with zero targeting errors, the PSSB-Elderly programme reaches two-thirds of its target group. However, significant regional disparities persist, including undercoverage in poorer regions. Additionally, we document substantial delays in payments since 2023, as well as various inaccuracies in the beneficiary registry. These findings underscore the importance of simple and robust designs for social protection in resource-constrained contexts. They also suggest that expanding programme coverage towards a quasi-universal subsidy in high-poverty locations merits serious consideration.
Topic:: Poverty, Public Policy, Pension, and Payment Systems
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

456. Environmental Kuznets curve and green regulation

Author:: Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Loredana Pisano
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In this paper, we first test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, using a large sample of approximately 190 advanced and developing countries, over a period of 34 years (1989– 2022). We find that (CO2) emissions respond positively to increasing income per capita, up to a turning point of approximately US$25,000. In a departure from the previous literature, we allow the relationship between economic development and emissions to depend on the stringency of environmental regulation. Our results indicate that environmental policies—and particularly market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emissions trading systems—make the EKC lower and flatter. These results are robust to several sensitivity checks, and to the use of regional (rather than global) data. Overall, our results have important policy implications, as they identify economic development as a pathway to environmental improvements. Moreover, we show that environmental policies are an essential means to achieving decoupling of emissions and economic output over the longer term.
Topic:: Climate Change, Carbon Tax, Decoupling, and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

457. Fiscal policy and commodity price shocks in South Africa

Author:: Tumisang Loate and Vincent Dadam
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper investigates the effect of commodity price shocks in a commodity-exporting small open economy, and the role of fiscal policy in transmitting these shocks to the rest of the economy. Using South African data, we first estimate an empirical model using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. We then develop a New Keynesian small open economy with labour market hysteresis and commodity price shocks. We find that a commodity price shock typically has an expansionary effect as real GDP and employment increase, which translates into higher tax revenue. The results from our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model match the data. In addition, despite not modelling the tradable and non-tradable sectors explicitly, we find that there is an opportunity cost associated with taxing the commodity sector more than home production. This results in a higher trade deficit and government spending. Consequently, we also explore the role of countercyclical fiscal policy during a commodity boom.
Topic:: Economy, Fiscal Policy, Hysteresis, and Commodity Price Shock
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

458. Economic development and inequality of opportunity: Kuznets meets the Great Gatsby?

Author:: Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Domenico Moramarco, and Vito Peragine
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: According to the Kuznets hypothesis, inequality first tends to increase and then decrease as a country develops. Whether borne out empirically, this inverted-U Kuznets curve, as a stylized ‘fact’, has shaped the discourse on economic development and income inequality for decades. In this paper we investigate whether a similar relationship holds between national income per capita and inequality of opportunity: the inequality associated with inherited individual circumstances such as gender, ethnicity, and family background. As, empirically, inequality of opportunity is positively correlated with income inequality (a relationship known as the ‘Great Gatsby’ curve), the relationship between inequality of opportunity and ‘development’ is expected to display the same inverted-U shape. We suggest that the existence of a Kuznets inequality of opportunity curve can be the result of a ‘triangular’ relationship between development, income inequality, and inequality of opportunity. We propose a simple theoretical model that links the three concepts and describes two possible mechanisms. A numerical simulation based on the model illustrates the process. We then draw on the newly published Global Estimates of Opportunity and Mobility database to shed new light on this ‘triangular’ relationship, primarily in a cross-sectional context.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, and Opportunity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

459. Surviving the storm: How climate-related disasters reshape tax morale in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Enrico Nichelatti and Abrams Tagem
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Climate-related disasters have increased over recent decades, with severe human and economic consequences. While research has examined their macroeconomic effects and impact on households’ income and consumption patterns, little attention has been given to their impact on tax morale—taxpayers’ intrinsic motivation to comply with tax obligations. This study fills this gap by estimating the impact of climaterelated disasters on tax morale in 26 sub-Saharan African countries using Afrobarometer survey data from 2011 to 2021. The analysis considers six climate-related shocks: droughts, earthquakes, extreme temperatures, floods, storms, and wildfires. We hypothesize that the impact of climate-related disasters on tax morale depends on the specific disasters considered, and that these heterogeneous effects work through two key mechanisms: economic inequality and trust in public institutions. First, they can exacerbate inequality by reducing government revenue, increasing economic hardship for vulnerable groups (through loss of livelihoods), and eliciting unequal policy responses from government. Climate-related disasters can also reduce inequality when associated with increased economic hardship for richer households (by destroying their productive assets. Second, tax morale declines when citizens perceive government responses as inadequate or unfair; conversely, it increases if citizens perceive the government to be responding adequately. Logistic regression results confirm this heterogeneity. Droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms reduce tax morale, while earthquakes and wildfires increase it. Incorporating regional heterogeneity shows that the negative effects of disasters on tax morale are more profound in rural areas. Mediation analysis confirms inequality and institutional trust as key transmission channels. These findings underscore the need for inclusive tax policies and effective post-disaster governance to sustain revenue mobilization in sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Tax Systems, and Economic Inequality
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

460. Carbon taxation and firm behaviour in emerging economies: Evidence from South Africa

Author:: Johannes Gallé, Rodrigo Oliveira, Daniel Overbeck, Nadine Riedel, and Edson Severnini
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of how firms in emerging economies respond to carbon taxation, leveraging detailed administrative data from South Africa—a potential trailblazer for other developing countries with limited state capacity amid the growing global push for carbon pricing. We examine the dynamic impacts of the carbon tax on firm-level outcomes—such as profits, sales, capital, and labour inputs—across manufacturing and mining firms, which are key sectors in the context of the carbon tax. Contrary to concerns that carbon taxes may hinder economic growth or reduce employment, our findings show no evidence of negative average impacts on firm performance or jobs. However, this overall result masks significant heterogeneity in the tax’s effects across sectors, driven by the sector-specific design elements of the South African carbon tax. Firms expecting higher effective tax rates may have intensified their use of emission-intensive machinery and depreciated capital in anticipation of the tax. This behaviour appears to stem from firms resolving regulatory uncertainty or seeking to recover costs from stranded assets.
Topic:: Employment, Economic Growth, Carbon Tax, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

461. Rethinking development finance in Tajikistan: Towards more sustainable and inclusive fiscal pathways

Author:: Jovid Ikromi
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper rethinks development finance in Tajikistan through the lens of fiscal sociology, arguing that sustained reliance on foreign aid and external borrowing may weaken state-society trust and erode institutional legitimacy. Anchored in the political economy of development finance, the paper explores how alternative financing strategies, such as tax reform, diaspora bonds, thematic bonds, and blended finance, interact with domestic institutions, investor confidence, and citizen perceptions of fiscal fairness. While external flows have financed essential infrastructure and social programmes, they have also limited incentives for domestic resource mobilization and weakened public accountability. Issues of debt sustainability increasingly constrain long-term planning, while climate finance is emerging as both a challenge and an opportunity for diversifying development funding. Drawing on policy analysis and secondary data, the paper shows that financial instruments succeed not only through technical design but through their ability to reinforce the fiscal social contract. Tajikistan’s case illustrates that without improvements in governance, transparency, and citizen engagement, even well-structured innovations in development finance may fail to gain traction. The findings offer practical insights for low-income countries seeking to reduce aid dependency while building more credible and inclusive systems of public finance.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, Finance, Climate Finance, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Tajikistan

462. Twenty-five years of inflation-targeting in South Africa: Going from 6% to 3%?

Author:: Philippe Burger
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper proposes that the South African Reserve Bank should pursue a 3% inflation target, instead of the current 4.5% midpoint of a 3%-to-6% target range. Doing so may also result in lower inflation volatility, thereby reducing nominal exchange rate risk for investment and trade, and may thus support economic growth. Using a two-regime Markov-switching model, the analysis shows that since the global financial crisis, periods of higher inflation volatility are much shorter. Thus, inflation is relatively better anchored since the global financial crisis. But there are still shocks that coincide with periods of exchange rate volatility. Lastly, the analysis shows that the budget deficit/gross domestic product ratio, constraints on electricity supply, and administered prices contribute significantly to inflation, while the effect of real gross domestic product growth (as a demand variable) is limited. The analysis also argues that the sacrifice ratio, measuring the sacrifice of growth and employment that is required to reduce inflation, is of limited use once the potential role that other variables can play in the reduction of inflation and inflationary expectations is considered. The government has an especially significant role to play in supporting the South African Reserve Bank in lowering the inflation rate to an average of 3% by lowering the level and volatility of administered price inflation, reducing the budget deficit, and improving electricity supply.
Topic:: Budget, Investment, Inflation, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

463. US interests can benefit from stronger congressional ties with the Caribbean

Author:: Wazim Mowla and Maite Gonzalez Latorre
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The Caribbean’s geographic proximity to the United States—as well as its use as a transit point for US citizens, goods, and financial services—makes it a crucial hub for US national interests. However, the relationship has suffered from inconsistent and infrequent assistance. Changes in US policy priorities bring ever-changing adjustments to US engagement, leaving the Caribbean, its leadership, and its institutions with insufficient time to benefit from US policy action. For Caribbean countries, policy continuity is critical for implementation and to see tangible and meaningful development. The region’s small populations and markets, vulnerability to natural disasters and changing global commodity prices, and limited institutional capacity slow the pace of receiving and utilizing development assistance and support. Underpinning US-Caribbean ties with stronger US congressional engagement can provide needed longevity to the relationship. Congressional actions—like newly appropriated resources and committee hearings—can bring tangible benefits to US-Caribbean relations.
Topic:: Security, Environment, Politics, and Economy
Political Geography:: Caribbean, North America, and United States of America

464. The fall of Assad has opened a door. But can Syria seize the moment?

Author:: Qutaiba Idlibi, Charles Lister, and Marie Forestier
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: For more than a decade, Syria’s crisis has caused unimaginable suffering inside the country and a constant stream of strategically significant spillover effects across the Middle East and globally. However, this dynamic changed in late 2024, when armed opposition groups in Syria’s northwest launched a sudden and unprecedentedly sophisticated and disciplined offensive, capturing the city of Aleppo and triggering an implosion of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. In the space of ten days, Assad’s rule collapsed like a house of cards, dealing a crippling blow to Iran’s role in Syria and significantly weakening Russia’s influence. Now, for the first time in many years, Syria has a chance to recover and reintegrate into the international system. If the United States, Europe, Middle Eastern nations, and other stakeholders embrace the right approach, support the right policies, and encourage Syria’s transition to move in the appropriate direction, the world will benefit—and Syrians will find peace. The work of the Syria Strategy Project (SSP) and the policy recommendations in the report “Reimagining Syria: A roadmap for peace and prosperity beyond Assad” present a realistic and holistic vision for realizing that goal. This report is the result of intensive joint efforts by the Atlantic Council, the Middle East Institute (MEI), and the European Institute of Peace (EIP), which have been collaborating since March 2024 on the SSP. At its core, the project has involved a sustained process of engagement with subject-matter experts and policymakers in the United States, Europe, and across the Middle East to develop a realistic and holistic strategic vision for sustainably resolving Syria’s crisis. This process, held almost entirely behind closed doors, incorporated Syrian experts, civil society organizations, and other stakeholders at every step.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, Politics, Economy, Crisis Management, Bashar al-Assad, Freedom, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

465. The European Union Growth Plan for the Western Balkans: A reality test for EU enlargement

Author:: Valbona Zeneli, Richard Grieveson, Isabelle Ioannides, and Dimitar Bechev
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The European Union (EU) Growth Plan for the Western Balkans aims to integrate the region into the EU single market, enhance regional cooperation, implement significant governance and rule of law reforms, and boost EU financial support. In doing so, the EU seeks to foster economic development, political stability, and security in the region amid rising geopolitical tensions, while accelerating the Western Balkans’ EU accession process. The Growth Plan holds substantial potential to reinvigorate the enlargement process and counter the stagnation felt by both the EU and the region. Strong points include: Tangible benefits before full accession: Providing stronger incentives for reform. Active involvement of regional governments: Increasing buy-in from local leaders, who must submit their own reform agendas. Enhanced economic integration, greater access to the EU market, increased EU funding, and reforms to governance and the rule of law: Stimulating investment, promoting economic growth, and raising living standards. These improvements would bring the Western Balkans closer to the economic success seen in the Central and Eastern European countries in the EU over the past two decades. Moreover, fostering deeper regional cooperation will not only deliver an economic boost but also contribute to political normalization. If successful, the plan will bolster the EU’s political influence in the region, countering the impact of external actors and encouraging much-needed nearshoring investment from EU firms. However, the plan faces several challenges: Enforceability: Although conditionality is rigorous, with disbursement of funds tied to strict conditions to prevent misuse, there are concerns regarding its enforceability. The European Court of Auditors has already raised reservations. Quantity: Additionally, the financial support offered is significantly lower than what EU member states in Southeast Europe receive. The reforms required for fund access and single market integration are substantial and will demand significant political will and institutional capacity—both of which have been lacking in the region at times over the past two decades. The success of the growth plan will largely depend on its implementation. The EU must ensure rigorous enforcement of conditionality, reward positive reform steps, and increase funding for countries making progress. Civil society in the Western Balkans should be engaged as much as possible to foster broader support and transparency. The EU should also leverage the plan to align with its broader geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, particularly in strengthening its strategic autonomy. Additionally, the Growth Plan should be fully integrated with the EU’s competitiveness, green, and digital transition agendas. For their part, Western Balkans leaders should seize the increased agency provided by the plan. They must take ownership of the reforms they propose, participate actively in EU meetings, and design their reform agendas to deliver better living standards and deeper EU integration for their populations.
Topic:: Markets, Reform, European Union, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Europe and Western Balkans

466. Building a path toward global deployment of fusion: Nonproliferation and export considerations

Author:: Sachin Desai, Michael Hua, Amy Roma, Jessica Bufford, Jacqueline Siebens, and Andrew Proffitt
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Commercial fusion is on the horizon, with many experts arguing that fusion power plants could put electrons on the grid by the end of this decade. However, there are questions around the process for regulating fusion power plants. In this Atlantic Council issue brief, authors Sachin S. Desai, Michael Y. Hua, Amy C. Roma, Jessica A. Bufford, Jacqueline E. Siebens, and J. Andrew Proffitt explore pathways to address regulation, nonproliferation, and export considerations for fusion technologies. They argue that fusion power plants should be regulated in a pathway that is separate from the regulatory pathways established for fission reactors, especially since the materials and processes involved in fusion power plants are significantly different from fission reactors.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Nonproliferation, Exports, Renewable Energy, Nuclear Energy, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

467. The imperative of augmenting US theater nuclear forces

Author:: Greg Weaver
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The United States and its allies and partners face an impending change in the threats posed by nuclear-armed adversaries: a strategic environment marked by two nuclear peer major powers. Russia, long a nuclear peer of the United States, will likely emerge from the war in Ukraine—regardless of how it ends—even more reliant on its nuclear forces, which are already the largest in the world. Meanwhile, China is undertaking the largest nuclear force buildup since the Cold War. That buildup will increase the size of Beijing’s nuclear forces by roughly seven and a half times since 2018, positioning China as a nuclear peer of the United States by 2035.1 Meanwhile, North Korea continues to expand and diversify its nuclear arsenal. Although the North Korean threat has been somewhat constrained by the quality of its ballistic missile systems—particularly its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)—technical assistance from Russia, in exchange for Kim Jong Un’s material support for the war in Ukraine, could rapidly enhance North Korean capabilities. Finally, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could prompt Iran to choose to acquire its own nuclear arsenal, presenting a wholly new challenge. A pair of recent analyses of the strategic impact of this two-nuclear-peer environment have sounded an alarm, making clear that this environment poses a qualitatively and quantitatively new threat of adversary aggression and the potential for nuclear war.2 Conducted by bipartisan teams of former senior US officials and other nuclear experts, both analyses concluded—in the words of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States (hereafter referred to as the Strategic Posture Commission)—that the planned US nuclear force “is absolutely essential, although not sufficient [emphasis added] to meet the new threats posed by Russia and China.”3 Both reports emphasized the urgent need to enhance US theater nuclear forces to address the most likely path to large-scale nuclear war: the failure to deter or counter limited adversary nuclear use in an ongoing conventional conflict. Finally, both reports laid out a set of attributes that US theater nuclear force enhancements must possess to effectively address the threat of limited nuclear escalation. However, these reports did not examine in depth the deterrence and warfighting implications of alternative new US theater nuclear systems. This paper examines why the two-nuclear-peer threat makes the enhancement of US theater nuclear forces an urgent imperative. It explains why the planned US strategic and theater nuclear forces are insufficient to address this threat. The paper then presents a more detailed set of political-military and operational attributes that enhanced US theater nuclear forces must possess to effectively counter the threat. Using these attributes, it evaluates the relative deterrence and warfighting value of various potential alternative theater-range nuclear weapon systems. The paper concludes with a recommended future US theater nuclear force structure and posture, specifically, that the United States should field a theater nuclear force that combines an effectively dispersible dual-capable fighter aircraft (DCA) force in Europe with nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-Ns) deployed day-to-day on attack submarines (SSNs) in Europe and Asia and ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCM-Ns) and/or ground-launched ballistic missiles (GLBM-Ns) continuously deployed in Europe and/or Asia.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

468. Why Latin America and the Caribbean matter for OECD countries

Author:: Jason Marczak and Martin Cassinelli
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: As global dynamics evolve, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are becoming increasingly important partners for the member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The region offers valuable assets, policy alignment in key areas, and opportunities for enhanced collaboration on shared challenges. This report outlines how deeper OECD–LAC engagement can contribute to mutual prosperity, resilience, and global stability.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, and OECD
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

469. The next decade of strategic competition: How the Pentagon can use special operations forces to better compete

Author:: Clementine G. Starling-Daniels and Theresa Luetkefend
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Strategic competition is likely to intensify over the next decade, increasing the demands on the United States to deter and defend against wide-ranging and simultaneous security challenges across multiple domains and regions worldwide. In that time frame, the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Joint Force should more effectively leverage the competencies of US Special Operations Forces (USSOF) to compete with US strategic adversaries. Three realities facing the DOD over the next decade lend themselves toward leveraging USSOF more in strategic competition. First, the growing need to counter globally active and increasingly cooperative aggressors, while the broader Joint Force remains focused on the Indo-Pacific and Europe, underscores the value of leveraging USSOF to manage competition in other regions. Second, the desire to avoid war and manage competition below the threshold of conflict aligns with USSOF’s expertise in the irregular aspects of competition. Third, unless defense spending and recruitment dramatically increase over the next decade, the Joint Force will likely have to manage more security challenges without a commensurate increase in force size and capabilities, which underscores the need for the DOD to maximize every tool at its disposal, including the use of USSOF to help manage strategic competition. The US government must harness all instruments of national power, alongside its network of allies and partners, to uphold international security, deter attacks, and counter efforts to undermine US security interests. Achieving this requires effectively integrating and leveraging the distinct roles of the DOD, interagency partners, the intelligence community (IC), and the Joint Force, including components like USSOF that have not been traditionally prioritized in strategic competition. For the past two decades, USSOF achieved critical operational successes during the Global War on Terror, primarily through counterterrorism and direct-action missions. However, peer and near-peer competition now demands a broader application of USSOF’s twelve core activities, with emphasis on seven: special reconnaissance, foreign internal defense, security force assistance, civil affairs operations, military information support operations, unconventional warfare, and direct action. Over the next decade, the DOD should emphasize USSOF’s return to its roots—the core competencies USSOF conducted and refined during the Cold War. USSOF’s unconventional warfare support of resistance groups in Europe; its support of covert intelligence operations in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America; its evacuation missions of civilians in Africa; and its guerrilla and counterguerrilla operations helped combat Soviet influence operations worldwide. During that era, special operations became one of the US military’s key enablers to counter coercion below the threshold of armed conflict, and that is how USSOF should be applied in the next decade to help manage strategic competition. This report outlines five ways the Department of Defense should use Special Operations Forces over the next decade to support US efforts in strategic competition. USSOF should be leveraged to: Enhance the US government’s situational awareness of strategic competition dynamics globally. Entangle adversaries in competition to prevent escalation. Strengthen allied and partner resilience to support the US strategy of deterrence by denial. Support integration across domains for greater effect at the tactical edge Contribute to US information and decision advantage by leveraging USSOF’s role as a technological pathfinder. This report seeks to clarify USSOF’s role in strategic competition over the next decade, address gaps in understanding within the DOD and the broader national security community about USSOF’s competencies, and guide future resource and force development decisions. By prioritizing the above five functions, USSOF can bolster the US competitive edge and support the DOD’s management of challenges across diverse theaters and domains.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Middle East, Latin America, and United States of America

470. Issue brief: A NATO strategy for countering Russia

Author:: Ian Brzezinski
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Russia is the most direct and significant threat to the security of NATO member states—and since Moscow’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 this threat continues to grow. It now encompasses the war in Ukraine, the militarization of the Arctic, hybrid warfare, and violations of arms control treaties. While NATO holds a significant advantage over Russia in military and economic power, an effective and unified strategy is needed to counter Russia’s aggression and fully harness the Alliance’s collective capabilities. To effectively counter Russia, NATO must defeat Russia in Ukraine, deter Russian aggression against NATO allies and partners, contain Russian influence beyond its borders, and degrade Russia’s ability and will to accomplish its revisionist agenda. That will require, among other actions, a significant increase of support and commitment to Ukraine’s defense against Russia, and a more robust Alliance force posture including the modernization of its nuclear deterrent, the permanent stationing of brigade elements along NATO’s eastern frontier and increased defense industrial capacities.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Intelligence, International Organization, National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Deterrence, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

471. From Tunis to Baghdad: Can platform-based politics take root?

Author:: Carrie Schenkel and James Storen
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The organization of political parties has served multiple distinct roles in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In many cases, regimes use them to create a light veneer of democratic legitimacy for authoritarianism; in other cases, parties exist to represent one identity group or are centered around a singular individual. In rare cases, but with a few successful examples, parties exist to represent an ideology. Rarer still, but key to the future democratic success of the region, are true platform-based parties. Vacuums of political leadership have developed due to the limited role parties play in shaping governance, representation, and public policy. In a rapidly changing region, the opportunity for effective, issues-based parties has never been more evident. Iran’s proxies in the region have been significantly weakened and the “Axis of Resistance” dismantled, presenting openings for new political leadership to emerge. Political parties are not yet poised to meet the moment. In much of the region, long histories of implicit and explicit bans and one-party dominance have left political parties weak, unpopular, and ineffective. Extended periods of suppression and restriction—such as Jordan’s thirty-year party ban, Iraq’s decades of one-party rule under Saddam Hussein, and Tunisia’s twenty-three years of party bans during the Ben Ali era—have resulted in political parties that lack both organizational capacity and broad public appeal. Rather, they are fragmented, ideologically vague, and centered around individuals rather than coherent platforms. The proliferation of political parties—more than 220 are currently registered in Tunisia, for example—has further undermined any sense of clear policy platforms and the ability to differentiate one party from another. Rather than reforming or uniting under existing frameworks, disillusioned members frequently break away to form new parties, stymieing coalition-building and the development of rooted, comprehensive party ideologies. Disillusionment with traditional parties has led citizens to favor actors perceived as more directly serving their interests, such as Hezbollah—which positions itself as a resistance force against Israel—or Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated parties, which have gained trust through their provision of essential social services in Egypt, Jordan, and elsewhere. In an era defined by youth-led movements, digital activism, and persistent calls for democratization, these parties stand at a crossroads. Whether they act as agents of change or instruments of entrenched power remains a central question, shaping not only the future of governance within individual nations but also the trajectory of regional stability and development.
Topic:: Civil Society, Corruption, Diplomacy, Politics, Elections, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North Africa, and Lebanon

472. Why democracies stick together: The theory and empirics behind alliance formation

Author:: Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Domestic regime type affects both inter-state conflict and alliance formation. Democratic peace theory posits that democracies do not go to war with one another, while democratic alliance theory suggests that they rarely, if ever, join nondemocratic alliances (or alliances led by nondemocratic powers). Empirical evidence strongly supports both theories. The Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Indexes further reinforces the hypothesis that economically prosperous democracies tend to align with one another, whereas authoritarian states gravitate toward similarly nondemocratic and less prosperous partners. If these theories hold, they carry significant implications for Western and especially US foreign policy. First, global democratization would reduce the number of potential conflicts, at least among an increasing number of democracies. Second, it would expand the pool of democratic alliance partners, while at the same limiting the alliance options available to nondemocratic powers. This strategic logic underscores the importance of upholding democratic norms abroad and promoting democratization in nondemocratic states. However, advocating for democratization of nondemocratic great powers will be perceived as both a geopolitical and domestic political challenge aimed at weakening their international position and threatening their governments’ domestic grip on power. Efforts to democratize nondemocratic great-power like Russia and China therefore provoke intense countermeasures. If such a strategy is deemed to be too high risk or too difficult to pursue successfully, a less provocative, “peripheral” strategy may focus on fostering democracy and economic development in authoritarian regimes’ weaker, less prosperous partners, thereby depriving them of potential allies.
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, Politics, Democracy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia

473. Trade with Colombia is big business for US exporters—amid growing Chinese influence in Latin America

Author:: Geoff Ramsey and Enrique Millán-Mejía
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Colombia and the United States have achieved a close, mutually beneficial partnership over several decades on migration, security, counternarcotics, and commerce—with the US trade surplus with Colombia totaling $1.3 billion in 2024. The Colombian market is particularly important for US agricultural producers. Thanks to the US-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA), Colombia is the top destination for US agricultural exports in South America and the third main destination in the Western Hemisphere. The United States is still Colombia’s largest trading partner in South America—with $36.7 billion in two-way trade in 2024—but January data showed Chinese products leading over US imports for the month. The TPA promotes both reciprocal trade and US influence; interpretative improvements to previously agreed-upon matters are possible,
Topic:: Economy, Business, Tariffs, Exports, Trade, and International Markets
Political Geography:: China, Colombia, South America, Latin America, and United States of America

474. The Future of European Digital Competitiveness

Author:: Oscar Guinea and Vanika Sharma
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi’s recent report on Europe’s competitiveness lays bare the negative effects of overregulation in the EU economy and the underperformance of its digital sector. However, Draghi failed to draw connections between these two phenomena. The future of Europe’s competitiveness is inextricably linked to the future of its digital economy. Unfortunately, the economic contribution of Europe’s Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector remains significantly smaller than that of the US ICT sector to the US economy. There are well-known reasons behind this divergence. Chief among them is the lack of sufficient investment in Europe’s intangible and tangible assets. Regulation, particularly those regulations governing the digital economy, has emerged as a key factor that restricts Europe’s usage of digital technologies and hinders subsequent productivity growth. The EU now has nearly 100 tech-focused laws, comprising thousands of pages, provisions, and restrictions. This must change. The EU should develop a joint plan for digitalisation and competitiveness. This plan should build upon Europe’s comparative advantages: openness, strong institutions, the rule of law, robust intellectual property protections, and high levels of human capital. Above all, the EU must recognise that, while protecting consumer rights, EU policies and regulations must also prioritise the competitiveness of Europe’s ICT sector and promote the widespread adoption of digital technologies across the entire EU economy.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Digital Economy, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

475. Quantum Technology: A Policy Primer for EU Policymakers

Author:: Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, Oscar du Roy, and Andrea Dugo
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Quantum technology is rapidly emerging as a transformative force with the potential to reshape industries ranging from finance and pharmaceuticals to automotive and aerospace. In 2024 alone, investments in quantum technology reached over USD 56 billion. Its development, however, presents unique geopolitical challenges, stemming from its applications in defence and encryption, as well as its power to unsettle established comparative advantages and market specialisations across countries. Against this backdrop, an open and collaborative approach to quantum innovation is critical for maximising the benefits of this technology. Countries perform more effectively in quantum technology when they support cross-border collaborations and market specialisation. Firms producing quantum hardware or software solutions can sell to a range of industrial users who, in turn, integrate these cutting-edge systems into goods and services. Such synergy reduces the overall risks and costs of R&D, as different partners share both the financial burden and any uncertainties related to the commercial viability of quantum applications. Moreover, collaboration fosters a wider diffusion of quantum technologies. As firms specialising in quantum computing, communication, or sensing deepen their expertise, their insights permeate adjacent sectors through the shared knowledge enabled by joint collaborations. Conversely, restrictive policies that limit interaction between domestic and foreign firms risk stifling innovation. Self-reliance strategies reduce opportunities for knowledge-sharing, limit the pool of potential partners, and ultimately slow the pace of quantum breakthroughs. This operating framework supports the current EU approach to quantum technology, which emphasises openness and encourages a higher number of collaborations between EU and non-EU companies. This approach is grounded in economic realities: the EU ranks second only to the US in terms of the number of companies and collaborations between firms and it thrives on partnering with non-EU countries as the number of collaborations with companies outside the EU far exceeds the number of collaborations within the EU.
Topic:: European Union, Digital Economy, Digital Policy, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Europe

476. Cybersecurity at Risk: How the EU’s Digital Markets Act Could Undermine Security across Mobile Operating Systems

Author:: Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The EU’s fight against cybersecurity threats risks being undermined by the over-enforcement of the Digital Markets Act (DMA). Article 5(4) could force mobile operating system providers to allow unregulated external links, bypassing critical security controls and exposing millions of smartphone users to cyber threats. The DMA focuses on market structure, overlooking how differences in operating system design affect security vulnerabilities. A one-size-fits-all approach ignores platform-specific security needs, leaving European users exposed to cyber threats. This risks undermining the EU’s economic security agenda, including initiatives like the Cybersecurity Strategy, Cyber Resilience Act, and NIS2 Directive, which aim to strengthen digital defences. The unintended consequences of this regulatory approach are already evident in Apple’s recent decisions to withhold certain features – such as advanced AI functionalities and enhanced app security tools – from the EU market due to DMA-related concerns. As a result, EU consumers face reduced access to innovative technologies, diminished user experiences, and weaker security protections compared to users in other regions. Now, Android, a widely used open-source system, may also be compromised by DMA enforcement, potentially limiting its flexibility, security, and the broader ecosystem of app developers and device manufacturers that rely on its open architecture.
Topic:: European Union, Cybersecurity, Digital Economy, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:: Europe

477. The Participation of Foreign Bidders in EU Public Procurement: Too Much or Too Little?

Author:: Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This policy brief examines EU public procurement data from the Tenders Electronic Daily (TED) to evaluate foreign bidders’ participation and success in winning EU public contracts. Despite data coverage limitations, the available information shows an increase in foreign participation in both full and partial contracts, with most activity concentrated in a few countries. Countries like the United States, Japan, and Canada focus on securing full contracts, while nations such as Norway and Turkey often engage through partial contracts. Notably, since Brexit, UK bidders have faced a significant decline in market share, benefiting other countries. The main conclusion is that foreign participation via cross-border procurement (Mode 1) – the only one available in the TED database – is not very high. Although it increased over time, it remains relatively modest, mainly due to low participation rates, rather than discriminatory practices. Between 2016 and 2019, only about 7 percent of EU procurement authorities received foreign bids. This fact alone largely explains the low level of cross-border procurement taking place via Mode 1: put simply, there is no winning without trying. Another important conclusion is that a comprehensive assessment of the participation of foreign bidders in EU procurement would require two new key metrics in the TED data collection process to capture the more important yet missing modes of international procurement. Having reliable and comprehensive data is not just an academic pursuit but a necessity for shaping effective EU policy in the face of rising global protectionism in public procurement.
Topic:: European Union, Contracts, and Public Procurement
Political Geography:: Europe

478. Competitive Harmonisation: A Collaborative Framework for Intra-EU Reform and Competitiveness

Author:: Matthias Bauer
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Persistent legal fragmentation, compounded by the EU’s 24 official languages, increases costs and legal uncertainty, deterring meaningful investments in innovation and preventing businesses from scaling across borders. Without bold, comprehensive legal reforms, Europe will fall further behind in global competition and major global technological developments. The EU’s incremental reform approach has failed to address the deep-rooted legal and institutional challenges threatening Europe’s economic future. Competitive Harmonisation offers a pragmatic yet visionary concept to overcome legal fragmentation, tackle the business scale gap, and unlock Europe’s vast economic potential. By embracing “collaborative governance” through coalitions of willing Member States, aligning with global standards, and prioritising innovation and technology diffusion, European governments can enhance the Single Market and restore Europe’s leadership in lawmaking and industrial competitiveness. Amid growing political risks, such as the threat of tariffs, the responsibility to act decisively rests squarely with Europe. By taking bold, pragmatic steps now, Europeans can not only resolve immediate challenges but also lay the groundwork for sustainable, long-term economic development.
Topic:: Markets, Reform, European Union, Regional Economy, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

479. The 8 Percent Approach: A Big Bang in Resources and Capacity for Europe’s Economy and Defence

Author:: Andrea Dugo, Fredrik Erixon, and Ismail Abdi
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Europe has become a region of feeble economic performance and military frailty. Its share of the world economy is rapidly shrinking, and the region is struggling to keep up with economies at the modern technological frontier. Countries in the European Union have for decades talked about the importance of raising Research and Development (R&D) expenditure and allow greater space for an entrepreneurial business sector that is prospering on the back of innovation. However, the results are poor. R&D expenditures as a share of GDP have largely been stagnant, business investment and inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) have tanked. Rates of new business formation and growth are paltry, partly as a result of gross overregulation. Productivity growth has continued its decades-long path of deceleration, and the EU is increasingly behind international leaders. Fortunately, Europe is beginning to wake up from its strategic slumber. Defence expenditures are now growing faster than in previous decades – and some countries, like Poland, are becoming serious powers. Yet, the region’s own military capacity remains poor. Europe must rebuild core conventional capacities at a time when defence modernisation requires substantial resources and focus. Russia may be bogged down by its war against Ukraine, but it is rebuilding its capacities fast and is increasingly aided by partnerships with other countries that want to break down what remains of a liberal world order. Many European NATO-members are now hitting the 2-percent spending target but must spend vastly more to acquire sufficient capacities to defend themselves and their interests.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Regional Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

480. The Impact of Increased Mass Litigation in Europe

Author:: Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, Vanika Sharma, Elena Sisto, Oscar du Roy, Renata Zilli, and Philipp Lamprecht
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The purpose of this study is to better understand the growth of mass litigation in the European Union (EU) and its economic consequences. European authorities have long encouraged consumers to seek redress through private litigation in European competition law and, more recently, they have shifted their focus towards collective actions in a broad range of areas, including data privacy and product liability. Facilitating access to justice through collective actions is not a cost-free option. Unfortunately, there is a lack of economic analysis on the consequences of an increase in collective action cases in the EU. It is crucial to understand the economic consequences of a “mixed regime” – that is, a regime based on both ex-ante public enforcement through regulation and ex-post enforcement through private litigation. The combination of these two enforcement models raises questions about how the system is intended to work together and what the consequences might be for the economy. This study examines the economic implications of these developments in the EU.
Topic:: Law, European Union, Regulation, Regional Economy, and Litigation
Political Geography:: Europe

481. Boosting Efficiency and Quality in EU Public Services: The Need for a European Multi-Cloud-First Strategy

Author:: Matthias Bauer, Andrea Dugo, Dyuti Pandya, Vanika Sharma, and Elena Sito
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: EU governments have an unprecedented opportunity to unlock up to EUR 450 billion in annual fiscal savings by modernising public services through advanced multi-cloud solutions, cloud-based AI, and other deep tech innovations. As estimated in this study, this figure highlights the transformative impact of digitised government services – not only in improving service quality and operational efficiency but also in generating substantial fiscal gains that would enhance Europe’s economic competitiveness. Multi-cloud adoption is not merely an infrastructure choice but a strategic enabler of modern, agile, and citizen-focused public services. To fully capitalise on cloud adoption, EU governments should embrace a multi-cloud strategy that integrates different public cloud providers and, where necessary, also incorporates sovereign or private cloud environments. Cloud services come in many forms, including Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS), Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS), and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS). Each model offers unique value propositions such as ease of use, rapid security updates, scalability, and the capacity to integrate novel technological features, such as AI applications, seamlessly.
Topic:: European Union, Digital Economy, and Cloud Computing
Political Geography:: Europe

482. Benchmarking Quantum Technology Performance: Governments, Industry, Academia and their Role in Shaping our Technological Future

Author:: Fredrik Erixon, Andrea Dugo, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: In this study on the transformative potential of quantum technology in reshaping economies, we present results and evidence drawing on a unique and innovative quantum dataset compiled by ECIPE. This data offers new insights into the current state of quantum advancements. This comprehensive database sheds light on the roles of various actors – governments, industry, and academia – showcasing their contributions to the development of quantum technologies. By grounding the analysis in real data, we provide a clearer understanding of the dynamics at play, enabling stakeholders to assess the sustainability of quantum technology progress and foster an ecosystem that supports both public and private sector involvement.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Private Sector, Industry, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

483. India and the World Economy: Policy Options at a Time of Geopolitical Drama, Technological Shifts, and Rising Protectionism

Author:: Fredrik Erixon, Dyuti Pandya, and Vanika Sharma
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: What trade policy should India pursue? Geopolitical drama and a faltering multilateral system have made choices of trade policy harder for many countries. Rising protectionism, economic nationalism, and growing scepticism towards globalisation eat into most trade relations. Technology-driven innovation and rapid changes in the composition of trade have added additional layers of complexity, forcing governments to develop new policies for cross-border economic integration. This is the inflection point for India’s trade policy: its traditional approach is increasingly unable to respond to new economic and political realities, and new approaches may be needed to deliver better economic outcomes. Using India’s external trade strategy as a starting point, this policy brief presents three strategic options for India, each reflecting varying degrees of trade openness as a means to drive economic development. Using categories from the world of soft drinks, we call them “Trade Zero”, Diet Trade” and “Trade Regular”. First, the Trade Zero approach allows India to maintain its defensive stance on trade, focusing primarily on the growth of its domestic market and demand. Trade only serves as a means to manage production surpluses. Second, the Diet Trade approach pushes India to softly enhance trade with its already well-established trading partners, ideally by focusing on high-value-added goods and services. The model emphasises deepening diplomatic relations through trade: however, not at the cost of domestic policy priorities. And lastly, the Trade Regular approach encourages the adoption of a more ambitious trade strategy with the aim of establishing India as a central hub connecting major global economic regions. This would happen through upgrading existing trade agreements, signing new multilateral trade agreements, as well as adopting significant domestic reforms for further economic liberalisation. India’s trade performance provides the actual context of the realities of India’s trade policy. There are some notable features in India’s trade performance: its trade sector is small (international trade as a share of the GDP); it has a large services export sector compared to the export of goods; exports of high-value added goods and services has increased substantially; there is a consistently large share of big economies such as the United States and the European Union in India’s exports. All these features point to India’s position in global trade as a relatively high-value added economy. India, therefore, not only has an opportunity to leverage its trade capacity to significantly improve economic growth but can also adapt to newer forms of trade and increasingly engage with the global economy. Moreover, given the shifting global context and the increasing trade reciprocity demands from larger economies, India will also need to strengthen its trade relations with a diverse set of partners. In a way, India’s economy has already made the choice of which model that suits it best. Given the key features of the country’s trade sector, India’s real economy is already moving towards a Trade Regular model. However, there is a gap between the actual performance and policy positions, which remain defensive. Future trade growth, however, will likely depend on India becoming more pro-active in its trade policy and better equipped to negotiate trade agreements that respond the ambitions of its outward-oriented companies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Geopolitics, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

484. EU Export of Regulatory Overreach: The Case of the Digital Markets Act (DMA)

Author:: Matthias Bauer, Dyuti Pandya, and Vanika Sharma
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) exemplifies the “Brussels Effect,” extending the EU’s regulatory influence beyond its borders and shaping global digital competition policies. While intended to curb the market power of large technology platforms and promote fair competition, its broad, rigid, and pre-emptive approach risks stifling technological development, deterring investment, and creating legal uncertainty, particularly in emerging markets still building digital infrastructure and seeking to attract foreign investment. Large technology firms play a pivotal role in global economic development, driving innovation, infrastructure upgrading, and consumer welfare. However, increasing regulatory scrutiny, particularly under DMA-like frameworks, could inadvertently harm the very markets they help grow by imposing compliance burdens that hinder business expansion and technology diffusion. Countries with weaker institutions and regulatory capacity – such as India, Brazil, South Africa, and other emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) like Indonesia – could face greater risks of regulatory capture, corruption, and enforcement challenges if they replicate the EU’s approach without adapting it to their economic realities (Section 2). A key concern with the DMA is the departure from traditional case-by-case enforcement in competition policy, instead relying on broad, pre-emptive obligations based on ambiguous concepts such as fairness and contestability. This shift reduces legal certainty, increases the risk of inconsistent enforcement, and may inhibit dynamic competition, which is essential for innovation-driven sectors like fintech, e-commerce, ICT, and edtech. By prioritising static over dynamic competition, the DMA could impede technological progress, limiting consumer choice and long-term economic benefits (Section 3). The global adoption of DMA-like regulations risks further regulatory fragmentation and may create unintended consequences, particularly in emerging economies where regulatory frameworks, institutional quality, and market structures differ significantly from the EU. Broad prohibitions on business practices, such as self-preferencing and data-sharing, could limit opportunities for local firms to scale internationally, weaken cybersecurity protections, and reduce incentives for large technology firms to invest in these regions (Section 4). To ensure proportionate and effective competition enforcement, governments outside the EU should prioritise regulatory flexibility and case-by-case assessments over broad, static restrictions. OECD best practices on competition policy emphasise clear objectives, legal certainty, and regulatory proportionality, ensuring that competition enforcement supports, rather than stifles, innovation and investment (Section 5). Moreover, the risks of corruption and regulatory overreach in developing countries make broad ex-ante regulations especially problematic. Excessive discretionary power granted to local authorities could increase the risk of politically motivated enforcement, deter foreign investment, and undermine long-term economic growth. A more effective approach would be to strengthen institutional frameworks, enhance transparency, and adopt supply-side policies that support technology neutrality, free trade, and economic freedom.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Regulation, Digital Markets Act (DMA), and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

485. Trade in the Great Sea: The Future of EU-Southern Neighbourhood Trade Relations

Author:: Jan A. Micallef
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This policy brief looks into the future of EU-Southern Mediterranean trade relations. It evaluates the current trade and contractual instruments governing these relations and asks if they are sufficient or if more is needed to exploit trade opportunities and manage trade challenges in the region. The policy brief shows why and how the current trade instruments are no longer sufficient. There are two main reasons for this: first, they do not really tackle areas such as services, investment and non-tariff measures (NTMs), all of which are important to unlock economic value for both sides in today’s economy; and second, new economic and political developments reinforce the need for better agreements. As trade becomes more political and intertwined with other issues such as energy, critical minerals, the environment and industrial policy, it is necessary to improve the agreements and instruments that govern trade. The policy brief lists some of the upgrades in EU-Southern Mediterranean trade agreements that are necessary. However, it also analyses what challenges there are to pursue these upgrades and what can be done to overcome the problems. The policy brief concludes that working towards these aims will be challenging but not impossible if there is the necessary political will on both sides. Both sides should realise that the price of not doing anything might be higher than the effort that is required to bring their trade instruments up to the standards needed.
Topic:: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

486. Models of Industrial Policy: Driving Innovation and Economic Growth

Author:: Andrea Dugo, Fredrik Erixon, and Oscar Guinea
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Europe’s approach to industrial policy has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent years, with state aid reaching 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2022, levels unseen since the early 1990s. While advocates of substantial state aid argue that this intervention is necessary to maintain competitiveness in a world where the US and China are implementing large-scale industrial strategies, the effectiveness of this approach remains contested. This paper critically examines the evolution of EU industrial policy, contrasting it with alternative models adopted globally and within Europe itself. While EU economic strategies since the 1980s had focused mainly on horizontal policies such as market liberalisation, competition enforcement and support to Research and Development (R&D), recent developments have shifted towards a more interventionist stance. This shift has largely been driven by crises – the financial crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and the energy transition – which have prompted calls for greater state involvement in shaping industrial outcomes. However, this paper shows that, while industrial policy can support good economic development, it is not a determinant of economic success. All successful economies have pursued industrial policy, but so have all unsuccessful ones. This suggests that industrial policy, in and of itself, is not a determinant of economic growth and competitiveness. The effectiveness of industrial policy depends on its design, its ability to avoid market distortions, and its capacity to stimulate genuine private-sector investment rather than crowding it out. The revival of industrial policy in the EU – best exemplified by a series of high-level reports, including the Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi Reports of 2024 – signals a shift towards an industrial strategy that embraces state aid as a central tool for economic restructuring. Unlike earlier EU economic strategies that prioritised the deepening of the Single Market as the best form of industrial policy, recent proposals advocate for a relaxation of state aid rules to enable greater public subsidies for European industries. The rationale is that the EU must respond to global competitors who are no longer playing by the rules of free trade. As documented in this study, across a diverse range of EU countries, sectors, and policy targets, the prevailing industrial policy model in Europe consistently prioritises a selection of incumbent firms over the private sector as a whole, direct grants over other policy instruments, middle-technology sectors over high-tech ones. This paper argues that such an approach will not generate the desired outcome and assesses its shortcomings to encourage careful review by policymakers before Europe embarks on more of the same. In search of other policy solutions, this paper contrasts the broad European model of industrial policy with other approaches, particularly those of the US, South Korea, Switzerland, and Ireland, which offer, in different fields, alternative frameworks for fostering industrial competitiveness. These models are attractive because they respond to specific and growing problems in the EU economy that public policy can help to alleviate: low levels of investment, declining inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), lagging R&D-based innovation, and problems supplying industry with adequate human capital.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, European Union, Economic Growth, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

487. Navigating Geopolitical Realities: The EU’s Strategic Positioning in the South Caucasus and Central Asia

Author:: Tengiz Pkhaladze
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the strategic importance of the South Caucasus and its pivotal role in the European Union’s evolving engagement with Central Asia. The regional landscape, however, remains highly volatile. Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has had direct and indirect repercussions for the South Caucasus. Against the backdrop of the war, Moscow continues its efforts to maintain the region within its sphere of influence – through military presence, disinformation, economic leverage, and political interference. Twenty percent of Georgia’s territory remains illegally occupied by Russian forces, while the fragile post-conflict environment following the Second Karabakh War continues to shape relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While missions such as EUMM in Georgia and EUMA in Armenia reflect the EU’s growing political engagement, they remain limited in scope and capacity, constraining the Union’s ability to address the region’s evolving risks. The EU’s partnerships with South Caucasus countries are characterized by both strategic opportunity and persistent friction. Azerbaijan has become an important energy supplier to the EU, particularly via the Southern Gas Corridor, and is also involved in early-stage renewable initiatives such as the Black Sea Submarine Cable Project. However, the relationship remains complicated by enduring concerns related to governance, human rights, and democratic norms. Georgia, despite receiving EU candidate status in 2023, has prompted growing concern among EU institutions and member states over perceived democratic backsliding and increasing political polarization. The country remains a vital transit hub for the Middle Corridor and a central partner in EU connectivity efforts, but its internal developments have raised questions in Brussels about the sustainability of its European path. At the same time, Georgia continues to be a major target of Russia’s hybrid influence operations, which exploit internal divisions and erode trust in Euro-Atlantic institutions. Armenia, disillusioned with Russia’s security guarantees, is cautiously deepening its engagement with the West. However, the extent of this shift remains contingent on developments in Georgia – given Armenia’s geographic dependence – and on the prospects for a durable peace agreement with Azerbaijan. This policy brief assesses how the EU is managing the tensions between its strategic objectives and its normative commitments in a region increasingly shaped by Great Power rivalry. It concludes with policy recommendations aimed at strengthening the EU’s credibility and effectiveness in both the South Caucasus and Central Asia – advocating for a more coherent, proactive, and principled approach that aligns short-term geopolitical interests with long-term goals for regional stability and integration.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Strategic Interests, Regional Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and South Caucasus

488. Collective Action in the Netherlands: Why It Matters for the Transposition of the Product Liability Directive

Author:: Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, and Vanika Sharma
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This policy brief explores the implications of the Netherlands’ transposition of the new EU Product Liability Directive (PLD), focusing on its interaction with the Dutch collective action system. As one of the first EU countries to implement PLD and a key hub for mass litigation, the Netherlands offers a compelling case study. Features such as low claim thresholds, opt-out mechanisms, flexible settlements, limited cost-shifting, and the ease of creating litigation-backed entities make the Netherlands particularly attractive for mass claims, reinforcing its reputation as a “litigation magnet.” The new PLD simplifies liability claims, broadens the definition of “product” to include software, digital files, and related services, lowers evidentiary thresholds, extends liability to third-party actions such as cyberattacks, and includes post-market defects. These provisions, combined with the Netherlands’ collective redress regime, are expected to drive a rise in mass litigation. This rise poses particular economic risks for the Netherlands, one of the EU’s most digitised economies. Ranked sixth in digital adoption by Eurostat’s Digital Intensity Index, Dutch firms – especially in finance, insurance, ICT, and manufacturing – may also face growing exposure to collective actions under the PLD, which extends liability across the entire value chain. These sectors account for 27 percent of the value added in the Dutch market economy and are widely recognised as key drivers of economic growth. Increased legal uncertainty may also reduce the Netherlands’ attractiveness to multinational corporations, threatening levels of foreign direct investment and employment, both essential pillars of the Dutch economy. Growing mass litigation may also hinder innovation by redirecting R&D resources toward legal risk management. This is particularly concerning for the Netherlands, one of the EU’s top R&D investors. Drawing on US evidence, large-scale litigation can significantly erode market capitalisation, and based on our estimates, the cumulative loss in value for 31 Dutch companies featured in the EU R&D Scoreboard could reach €5.5 billion under the high-growth scenario. Such declines could impact household wealth, as Dutch households save approximately 14.6 percent of their gross disposable income, of which 20 percent is invested in equity. Pension funds, which also play a central role in Dutch long-term savings, can also hold significant stakes in publicly traded Dutch companies. As a result, the effects of collective actions on the market value of Dutch companies extend beyond corporate balance sheets, posing potential negative consequences for Dutch savers, as well as current and future pensioners. This report was commissioned by the European Justice Forum, a coalition of businesses, individuals and organisations that are working to build fair, balanced, transparent and efficient civil justice laws and systems for both consumers and businesses in Europe.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Litigation, and Liability
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

489. The Impact of Increased Mass Litigation in the UK

Author:: Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, Vanika Sharma, and Renata Zilli
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Over the past decade, the United Kingdom has seen a marked rise in collective litigation, transforming what was once a niche legal, rarely employed, tool into a fast-growing business model with wide-ranging economic implications. At a time when the country seeks to boost investment, support innovation and attract global business, the proliferation of mass litigation risks undermining these ambitions. This study takes a closer look at how mass litigation is reshaping the UK’s legal, business and regulatory landscape – and asks whether the balance between justice and economic efficiency is tipping too far. The UK stands out among European countries for the ease with which mass claims can be launched. It has long provided a favourable environment for consumer representation and dispute resolution, with a strong culture of accountability. But recent years have seen the emergence of a new ecosystem: law firms specialising in group actions; litigation funders offering upfront capital in exchange for a share of awards; and Claims Management Companies (CMCs) that recruit claimants en masse and process high volumes of cases. The business model has proved highly successful, making group litigation an asset class in its own right and pushing collective actions far beyond traditional sectors such as banking and pharmaceuticals. Today, a growing portion of the UK economy is in the firing line – with potentially damaging consequences. This shift has been rapid and striking. From fewer than 10 mass litigation cases in the late 2010s, the UK saw 47 such actions in 2024 alone, more than any other European country. On a per capita basis, the UK ranks as one of the most litigious jurisdictions in Europe, well ahead of comparable economies such as France or Germany. The implications for the UK economy are far-reaching: many of the companies targeted by these actions operate in sectors that were included in the UK Government’s latest industrial strategy as critical to the country’s future economic growth. Whereas previously limited to financial and professional services, mass litigation cases are now rising in UK companies working in life sciences, advanced manufacturing and digital services. These are industries where risk-taking, long product development cycles and data-driven innovation are the norm. The threat of mass litigation introduces uncertainty and cost at exactly the moment when these businesses need regulatory clarity and investment stability. Moreover, claims against public sector entities involve a direct transfer of capital from the tax payer to hedge fund litigation funders. The financial burden is also considerable. Legal fees and returns to funders often consume a large share of total settlements, reducing the compensation that actually reaches affected individuals. In the Post Office Horizon scandal, for example, £46 million in legal fees and funders payments were deducted from a £57 million settlement, leaving a paltry sum of just over £20,000 per claimant. In the recent judgment of Merricks v. Mastercard, £100 million have been allocated to compensate consumers. Affected individuals could receive up to £70 each if only 5 percent claim, but as little as £2.5 if the full class of 44 million comes forward. These figures raise questions about who really benefits from mass litigation. The limited benefits for individual consumers stand in stark contrast to the substantial costs that mass litigation imposes on the UK economy as a whole. Our scenario modelling shows that, under a scenario where the costs of mass litigation are just 30 percent of the current costs in the US, litigation costs in the UK could reach more than half of the claim value; the cost of mass litigation for the UK economy could reach close to £18 billion, and the market capitalisation of the UK’s most innovative companies could fall by £11.2 billion, more than half the announced public investment into R&D in the 2025 Autumn Budget. These financial pressures affect the whole country. While many large companies are headquartered in Greater London, their operations, and the jobs they support, are often spread across the wider regions. This means that the impact of a legal challenge is not just a concern for a corporate boardroom in London, but it impacts local economies and communities across the UK. As the Civil Justice Council reviews the framework for litigation funding, this study provides evidence to inform the debate. It does not argue against collective actions per se but urges a careful weighing of their benefits against broader economic costs. If the UK wants to remain an attractive destination for business, investment, and innovation, it must ensure that its legal infrastructure supports rather than stifles those ambitions.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Finance, and Litigation
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

490. Strengthening the Supply-Side Innovation in EU Telecommunications

Author:: Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The telecommunications sector is central to the EU’s competitiveness, not only providing the infrastructure that underpins digital connectivity but also serving as a key driver of innovation. Recent EU reports already highlight the persistent structural challenges faced by the EU telecommunication sector: market fragmentation, low investment levels, divergent spectrum policies, and an urgent need to bolster digital sovereignty. However, a critical dimension in this discussion often receives far less attention: the supply of the underlying technologies that power telecommunications infrastructure. In this domain, EU companies remain competitive. In 2023, 27 EU-headquartered firms were among the world’s top 2,000 R&D spenders in telecommunications, accounting for 16 percent of global sectoral investment. These figures underscore that, while Europe may lag in investment and infrastructure, it still holds strategic leadership in telecom innovation and technology development. Central to Europe’s success are standard development organisations (SDOs), technical standards, and Standard Essential Patents (SEPs). SDOs provide collaborative forums where companies jointly develop technical standards that ensure interoperability, reduce fragmentation and foster innovation. Complementing this, SEPs protect the innovations embedded within these standards, granting European companies vital licensing revenues that sustain their research efforts. This system is particularly important for EU firms, which tend to be smaller than their global competitors; it enables them to specialise in cutting-edge technology development and commercialise their innovations globally without needing to dominate manufacturing or end-user markets. As competitiveness in telecommunications increasingly depends on the pace and adoption of innovation, the EU faces both a challenge and an opportunity. European firms have the potential not only to supply critical technologies but to drive breakthroughs in connectivity which are linked to the development of other technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) or quantum technologies. However, to stay competitive, the EU must reinforce its position on the supply side, where its companies still operate at the technological frontier.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Digital Economy, Innovation, and Supply and Demand
Political Geography:: Europe

491. CTC Sentinel: January 2025 Issue

Author:: Paul Cruickshank, Julika Enslin, Nicolas Stockhammer, and Colin Clarke
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: France24’s Wassim Nasr is the only international journalist to spend time with Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa both before and after the fall of Assad. In the spring of 2023, Nasr traveled to Idlib where he met with al-Sharaa (who at the time was widely known by his jihadi kunya Abu Muhammad al-Julani). Nasr’s insights detailed in “Journey to Idlib” in the May 2023 issue of CTC Sentinel on al-Sharaa’s ideological journey away from the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida toward what might be termed pragmatic Islamism were invaluable to international security analysts. Late last year, shortly after the fall of the Assad regime, Nasr traveled back to Syria where he met with al-Sharaa for a second time and interviewed him. Speaking to CTC Sentinel about the trip in his follow-up feature interview “Journey to Damascus,” Nasr says: “Comparing the man I saw in 2023 with the man I saw in late 2024, he was the same. He spoke very slowly, very quietly. It was the same impression I had a year and a half ago, which was very surprising to many people. I was very cautious a year and a half ago, asking myself, ‘Okay, should I take what he is saying for granted?’ But I was reassured. Because I saw that when they took Aleppo, [when] they took Damascus, actually he applied what he said to me a year and a half ago. It can’t be dismissed as just talk.” In the feature article, Nicolas Stockhammer and Colin Clarke examine the Islamic State-inspired plot to attack a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna that was thwarted in August 2024. They write that the plot “underlined that Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), which appears to have inspired the lead plotter, remains an enduring threat, evolving its tactics and strategy while focusing on radicalizing followers and supporters through relentless online propaganda. The suspects in the Vienna plot epitomized the interplay of online and offline radicalization, with extremist content on social media platforms like TikTok playing a pivotal role.” In the second interview, Wassim Nasr provides insights from his interview last fall with Mohamed (Amadou) Koufa, the number two in JNIM, al-Qa`ida’s affiliate in the Sahel. For Nasr, the questions Koufa chose not to answer were even more significant than his answers. “In my assessment, Koufa’s refusal to speak about al-Qa`ida was significant. I think it’s very possible that JNIM is at least seriously discussing and maybe preparing to break from al-Qa`ida. Since the last third of December, JNIM has stopped referring to AQIM and stopped directing followers to the AQIM media outlet Al-Izza. … It looks like they might be preparing the landscape for a split with al-Qa`ida in the same way that Jabhat al-Nusra—the predecessor group of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the group now in power in Syria—split with al-Qa`ida.” Nasr says that it is possible that having seen HTS come to power in Syria after it split with al-Qa`ida and having seen al-Sharaa in recent weeks win broad international acceptance, JNIM may be preparing to start on a similar path away from the global jihadi group.
Topic:: Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Bashar al-Assad, and Ahmad al-Sharaa
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Syria, and Austria

492. CTC Sentinel: March 2025 Issue

Author:: Don Rassler, Yannick Veilleux-Lepage, Julika Enslin, Aaron Y. Zelin, and Jake Dulligan
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The March issue focuses in particular on the drone threat. In the feature article, Don Rassler and Yannick Veilleux-Lepage examine the evolution of terrorist drone usage and forecast its future trajectory in light of the tactical and technological innovations emerging from the Russo-Ukrainian War. They write that “the conflict has become a critical ‘innovation hub’ for drone warfare, accelerating advancements in the scale, speed, and range of drone operations. These developments are not only transforming the modern battlefield but also creating new opportunities for violent extremist organizations (VEOs) to enhance their operational capabilities.” They assess that “in particular, the war has normalized large-scale drone deployment, demonstrating the feasibility of launching coordinated drone swarms and phased attacks capable of overwhelming existing defenses” and note that the potential future pairing of high-speed First-Person View (FPV) drones with emerging technologies such as AI-assisted targeting “could significantly increase the precision and impact of future attacks.” In a similar vein, Jake Dulligan, Laura Freeman, Austin Phoenix, and Bradley Davis, in assessing the threat posed by commercial drones, write that the biggest concern “is that drone swarms could dramatically increase the impact of bad actor drone operations, be it kinetic strikes, ISR, or psychological warfare.” This month’s interview is with Dr. Christian Klos, the Director General of Public Security at Germany’s Federal Ministry of Interior and Community. He says that “when it comes to the external threat, I would agree with the assessment that ISIS-K is in Germany as well. What we observe from the intelligence side is that there are clear indications that the group intends to conduct attacks in Europe, and this can also include Germany and therefore we are very much aware of this threat, and we have seen also travel activities. So, it’s not just some minor indications.” Aaron Zelin assesses the new Syrian government’s efforts to counter the Islamic State, Hezbollah, and the captagon trade. He writes: “Unlike the Assad regime—which did little to fight the Islamic State, was closely aligned with Hezbollah, and produced captagon on an industrial scale—HTS in its guise as the new government of Syria is taking on these challenges assertively, and has a significant track record in doing so previously. Not only are these efforts a benefit to Syrian society and the security and stability of the country, but they also align with the interests of the United States and U.S. regional allies.” Alexandre Rodde and Justin Olmstead examine the evolution of vehicular ramming attacks and prevention efforts. They write that “when it comes to indicators and warnings of future attacks, the demonstration effect created by high-casualty vehicle-ramming attacks has in the past seemingly produced a surge in copycat attacks, which means the security agencies should be particularly vigilant given the recent uptick in high-profile attacks, including the New Orleans attack.”
Topic:: Intelligence, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Weapons, Drones, Islamic State, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Public Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

493. CTC Sentinel: April 2025 Issue

Author:: Michael Knights, Paul Cruickshank, Ayush Verma, Imtiaz Baloch, and Riccardo Valle
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In this month’s feature article, Michael Knights illuminates the nexus between Iraq’s oil sector and the Iran threat network. He writes: “The Iran threat network suffered grievous blows in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and Iran itself in 2024, and this has arguably made oil-rich Iraq even more important to the network. Facing renewed maximum pressure from the United States, Iran needs not only Iraq’s terrorist fundraising potential but also its value as a ‘laundromat’ through which Iranian energy products can be fraudulently relabeled as Iraqi exports. Using their control of the al-Sudani government, Iran-backed terrorist groups and militias are developing significant new strands of threat financing using Iraq’s oil sector, which combine to provide billions of dollars of illicit value each year. Iraq is thus emerging as Iran’s best bet for neutering the Trump administration’s renewed maximum pressure campaign.” He notes that “U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations are no longer content to steal oil, only to have smuggling businessmen realize most of the profits. Instead, terrorist organizations have muscled into this value-addition segment of the oil market in recent years, with AAH [Asaib Ahl al-Haq] and KH [Kataib Hezbollah] leading the pack.” Our interview is with Charlie Winter, the co-founder and chief research officer of ExTrac AI, an AI-assisted intelligence platform that identifies, maps, and forecasts geopolitical risk, including in the counterterrorism space. He states: “Our USP pivots around accessing, ingesting, and processing high-relevance publicly available information and data from hard-to-reach parts of the internet that reflects the online and offline activities and psychological operations of various non-state and state threat actors. And through our platform, which is both a web and mobile app, we provide both access to that data and the ability to generate insight from it rapidly—and we do that using a range of different kinds of automation, machine learning, [and] artificial intelligence.” He adds: “We essentially have built our system to let machines do what they do best and let human analysts do what they do best, and enable the analysts to spend a lot more time performing the highest-value tasks in the intelligence cycle.” Ayush Verma, Imtiaz Baloch, and Riccardo Valle examine the Baloch insurgency in Pakistan. They write: “The Baloch insurgency in Pakistan has intensified sharply since the beginning of 2025, marked by sophisticated attacks such as the Jaffar Express hijacking by Baloch Liberation Army-Jeeyand faction (BLA-J) on March 11, 2025, which resulted in the kidnapping of more than 400 passengers and death of at least 26 hostages. Groups like BLA-J, Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), and Baloch Liberation Army-Azad faction (BLA-A) continue to deploy suicide bombers, including women, and temporarily seize territories, targeting Chinese nationals and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. The insurgency’s regional spillover, especially into Iran, and competition for resources and prominence among factions of the insurgency further complicate Pakistan’s internal security.” They add: “Without a political resolution addressing long-standing grievances, the insurgency threatens to escalate, destabilizing both national and regional security.”
Topic:: Oil, Terrorism, Insurgency, Artificial Intelligence, Regional Security, Threat Assessment, and Transnational Threats
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Iraq, South Asia, and Middle East

494. CTC Sentinel: May 2025 Issue

Author:: Daisy Muibu, Yayedior Mbengue, Sean Morrow, Don Rassler, and Briar Bundy
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In the May 2025 feature article, Daisy Muibu and Yayedior Mbengue examine the evolving counterterrorism challenge in Somalia. They write that “nearly three years after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the security landscape remains precarious. Al-Shabaab has resurged, coordination between federal and Puntland forces is limited despite Islamic State-Somalia’s growing global remit, and the future of the African Union mission is uncertain. These trends are driven by political discord, a fragmented national landscape, donor fatigue, operational challenges, and al-Shabaab’s resilience.” Our interview is with Christine Abizaid, the former director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center. She emphasizes that: “The CT business is still a needles-in-the-haystack business; it’s still one piece of information that can open up a whole new threat network. You have to be digging into and accessing multiple sources of information, collaborating with multiple partners who see things in different ways.” Aymenn Al-Tamimi charts the rise, fall, and dissolution of al-Qa`ida’s loyalist group in Syria Hurras al-Din. He writes that: “The primary ongoing concern from a counterterrorism perspective is that regardless of Hurras al-Din’s own weakness, individuals who were members of the group, particularly leading figures, may try to coordinate with other members of al-Qa`ida or other jihadis outside Syria for the purpose of organizing terrorist attacks abroad.” Saif Tahir and Amira Jadoon examine the geographical origins, mobility patterns, and demographic characteristics of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants through an analysis of 615 profiles from the organization’s own martyrdom commemorative publications spanning 2006-2025. Julika Enslin outlines the evolution of the Islamist terror threat landscape in Germany since 2020 by taking an in-depth look at all nine executed Islamist terrorist attacks and the 20 publicly reported thwarted attack plots during that time. A personal note: Over the last 10 years, it has been the privilege of a lifetime to serve as the Editor-in-Chief of CTC Sentinel to showcase the best and brightest scholars and practitioners in our field. It’s time for me to pass the baton. The publication will be in great hands with my brilliant colleagues Kristina Hummel and Don Rassler. I look forward to continuing my close association with the Combating Terrorism Center and CTC Sentinel. The faculty and staff at the center, past and present, are the very best of America. I greatly appreciate the trust that directors Colonel Sean Morrow, Brian Dodwell, and Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) Bryan Price placed in me. Above all, I would like to express my thanks to our extraordinary contributors. They have greatly helped the counterterrorism enterprise. Who thinks wins.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Al-Shabaab, African Union, Salafi-Jihadism, and Hurras al-Din
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Syria, North America, Somalia, and United States of America

495. Strategies for States to Weather DisasterRelated Income Tax Extensions

Author:: Nancy Y. Augustine, Miles Murphy, Kate Kellen, and Coleman Stallworth
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:: The Academy will conduct comprehensive research and analysis to examine how disaster declarations affect tax extension periods in states and the IRS decision-making process in determining the extension duration. The objective of this engagement is to improve state and IRS coordination, communication, and decision making.
Topic:: Budget, Financial Management, Intergovernmental Models, and Government Operations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

496. Palestinian Women: Between War Resilience and Their Role in Post-Conflict Reconstruction in Gaza.

Author:: Mirvat al-Zaqzouq and Diab Zayed
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Women constitute 49% of the total population, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) reports, but their contribution to public life remains far below their numbers in society. According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) reports, women in the labor market will account for 19% in 2023. In decision-making centers, women’s participation remains low and one of the lowest rates in the region, despite being one of the most important indicators of gender equality, as data for 2021 showed that the percentage of women members of the Central Council constitutes about 23%, 19% of the members of the National Council, and 12% of the members of the Council of Ministers. There is also one-woman governor out of 15 governors, and 1% of the heads of local authorities in Palestine are women. As for the management of the councils of chambers of commerce, industry and agriculture, only 1% are women, about 19% of judges are women, and 18% of prosecutors are women. These figures reflect a marked exclusion of women from public life, which negatively affects their status, deepens gender inequality gaps, and at the same time prevents society from benefiting from women’s abilities and contribution to public life. This will inevitably affect the development of society and reinforce internal conflicts, especially gender conflicts. The exclusion of women in Palestine is a social tendency to exclude them from important public positions in the economy and politics, preventing them from expressing their opinions and limiting their public visibility. Despite the vital role that women play in crises, such as their steadfastness during the recent war on the Gaza Strip, in which various types of munitions were used including internationally banned ones, and came after years of siege imposed on Palestinian men and women, which deepened their suffering, but the general trend was to exclude women.
Topic:: Reconstruction, Women, Post-Conflict, Palestinians, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

497. A Forward-Looking Vision for Reforming the Palestinian Political System

Author:: Maher Issa and Omar Rahal
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Political reform in Palestine is an urgent necessity to achieve progress and development, ensure political and social stability, and confront the internal and external challenges facing the Palestinian cause. The Palestinian political system, which was established under complex historical circumstances and under Israeli occupation, needs continuous development to be able to respond to the requirements of the Palestinian people and their aspirations for freedom, dignity, and independence. The importance of political reform also comes in the context of enhancing the political legitimacy of the Palestinian system. Over time, the Palestinian citizen’s confidence in political institutions has declined as a result of the accumulation of issues such as the absence of periodic elections, the erosion of legitimacy, weak accountability and transparency, and the spread of favoritism and corruption in some areas. Thus, this reform is the cornerstone for rebuilding trust between the people and their institutions, and ensuring real and inclusive representation of all groups.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Elections, Legitimacy, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

498. The Future of Jerusalem Amid Political and Regional Changes: A Prospective Analysis

Author:: Rami Murad and Mahmoud Ereikat
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Jerusalem represents a central axis in the Arab-Israeli conflict due to its unique religious, historical, and political significance. Over the decades, the city has remained a focal point of contention between Palestinians and Israelis. While Israel seeks to consolidate its control through settlement expansion and Judaization policies, Palestinians strive to preserve its Arab, Islamic, and Christian identity and establish it as the capital of their future state. Amid the current political and regional dynamics, Jerusalem faces unprecedented challenges that significantly impact its future and identity. Several factors shape its future, including regional geopolitical conflicts, shifts in the positions of major global powers, particularly the changes introduced by the new U.S. administration, the ramifications of the ongoing genocide in the Gaza Strip, and internal challenges stemming from Israel’s right-wing policies toward the Palestinian population. This paper aims to explore the future of Jerusalem by analyzing the current reality and potential scenarios. Additionally, it seeks to propose policy alternatives that support the city’s resilience, safeguard its identity, and strengthen its presence in the international political landscape.
Topic:: Genocide, Settlements, Cities, Palestinians, 2023 Gaza War, and Judaization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

499. Perceptions on Enhancing Youth Access to Decision-Making Positions in the Palestinian

Author:: Jamal al-Fadi and Raed al-Dab'i
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This policy paper addresses the reality of Palestinian youth participation and access to decision-making centers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, amidst the political, economic, and social challenges faced by Palestinian youth due to Israeli occupation, internal division, and the Gaza blockade. Youth face significant difficulties in gaining opportunities for active participation in decision-making processes. The paper emphasizes the importance of empowering youth to access decision-making centers as a step toward achieving development and stability in Palestinian society. It highlights the need to enhance educational and training opportunities, improve economic conditions, and enable youth to have a real impact on public policies. Additionally, the paper offers alternatives, solutions, and practical recommendations, such as promoting political dialogue between the West Bank and Gaza, providing platforms for political participation, and developing economic and educational opportunities, in order to achieve genuine empowerment for Palestinian youth in various fields.
Topic:: Occupation, Youth, Economic Development, Decision-Making, Political Participation, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

500. Prospective Visions for the Future of Governance in Palestine

Author:: Abdullah Sharshara and Ahmed Rafiq Awad
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The issue addressed in this paper is that the future of the Palestinian political system remains unclear, making it too early to determine the exact shape of the governance system. Consequently, the researchers have employed a foresight methodology to analyze a set of variables and indicators to develop possible scenarios regarding the future of the political system and its impact on governance in Palestine. The foresight methodology relies on analyzing trends and future changes by studying current patterns and anticipated challenges to predict potential scenarios. Based on this approach, the researchers conducted two focus groups—one in Gaza City and another in Ramallah—on Thursday, January 23, 2025. The aim was to gather insights from elites, representatives, and key actors in Palestinian society regarding the potential outcomes of this system. Additionally, the researchers conducted a series of unstructured personal interviews with several Palestinian politicians to obtain analyzable results. This paper will first provide an overview of the Palestinian political system throughout different historical phases. It will then discuss the challenges faced by key actors within Palestinian society who have historically played a significant role in shaping and building the political system and governance structure—particularly the Palestinian Authority, Fatah (which has historically supported it), Hamas, and other Palestinian national and Islamic forces. Lastly, the paper will explore the future of the Palestinian political system and examine the impact of each scenario on the governance structure.
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Hamas, Fatah, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

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