Publication Year: within 5 Years - CIAO Search Results

16151. Climate Politics and the Crisis of the Liberal International Order

Author:: Felipe Leal Albuquerque
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The election of Donald Trump brought disarray to the climate change regime. The changes in what was up to then a promoter of the liberal international order (LIO) exacerbated existing tensions while creating new ones. This paper investigates how that challenge impacted the behaviours of Brazil, China and the European Union (EU) by comparatively analysing their dissimilar positions with respect to three indicators before and after Trump’s coming into power. These indicators are individual pledges and climate-related policies; approaches to climate finance; and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The analysis first shows how the US started eroding the broader LIO and the climate change regime to then delve into the behaviours of the three respective key players concerning climate talks. I sustain that the EU, despite its inner divisions, is already counteracting Washington, whereas China is combining a pro-status quo position based on a rhetorical condemnation of the United States. Brazil, in turn, had a transition towards a climate-sceptic government, shifting from being a cooperative actor to abdicating hosting the COP25.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Liberal Order, Multilateralism, and International Order
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

16152. Systemic Reconfiguration of Capitalism: Applying Ruggie’s Critique of Waltz in Economics

Author:: Sylvia Ferreira Marques
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This paper identifies changes in the center-periphery structure due to transformations in capitalism since 1970. In its new configuration, capitalism not only altered center-periphery relations but also exerted impact upon peripheral units that affect the system structure itself. This paper aims to apply Ruggie’s famous critique of Waltz in International Relations to analyse global capitalism and show how the changes in the center-periphery cleavage is affecting its systemic reconfiguration in the 21st century. This research identifies the boomerang effect as a new systemic element, that is, as a byproduct of the interaction of units of the global capitalist system in the 21st century.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Capitalism, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16153. Multilateral Framework of Investment Facilitation at the WTO: Initiatives and Perspectives from the Global South

Author:: Rafael Ramos Codeco and Ana Rachel Freitas
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The focus of International Investment policymaking in the global South has been shifting from investment protection to investment facilitation (IF). This movement marks an attempt to improve the attractiveness of national economies for foreign direct investment (FDI) and to recover the policy space previously curbed by traditional investment protection clauses. The popularity of investment facilitation led to the beginning of a negotiation process at the World Trade Organization (WTO) to formulate a multilateral agreement in this area. However, the differing negotiation practices related to IF could provoke schisms between the WTO members engaging in this discussion. The latest international investment agreements (IIAs) featuring IF provisions, signed by countries in the global South, indicate that during multilateral negotiations, these countries will focus on improving transparency, predictability and simplicity of the investment environment, as well as preserving their ability to develop public policies that are in line with their development strategies. However, some of the provisions that bring such preferences to fruition would challenge these countries’ bureaucratic and financial capacity. As discussions evolve at the WTO, countries in the global South will need to clarify their positions and co-ordinate their efforts in order to shape an alternative framework that fits their interests.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, World Trade Organization, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global South

16154. Africa’s Strategies of Development and International Insertion: The Hybridity of Agenda 2063

Author:: Guilherme Ziebell de Oliveira and Anselmo Otavio
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The present work discusses the evolution of the development and international insertion strategies adopted by nations in the African continent since the mid-20th century, period during which they began to achieve formal independence. In this context, supported by a literature review and official documents issued by African international organisations, the aim of this analysis is to understand the meaning and the importance of Agenda 2063 for this issue. Based on this analysis, the article proposes to demonstrate that such an agenda represents the inauguration of a new development and international insertion strategy in the continent, a hybrid one, that reconciles elements of two of the previously adopted approaches: the strategies of contestation and of mutual and shared responsibility.
Topic:: Development, Regional Cooperation, and Pan-Africanism
Political Geography:: Africa

16155. Entrenching the Problem? International Organizations and Their Engagement in Latin America to Address Violence: The Case of the European Union in the Northern Triangle

Author:: Kai Lehmann
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Latin America is the most violent region in the world. Yet, decades of political and financial investment by the international community have not had the desired results. Using the work of the European Union in the Northern Triangle of Central America as a case study, this article asks what explains this failure. Utilizing the conceptual framework of Complexity and Human System Dynamics, it argues that current policies actually entrench the pattern of conditions which lead to, and sustain, violence. It shows how, by reconceptualizing this problem using the concepts of Complexity, policies could be made more effective and sustainable.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:: Europe, South America, Latin America, and North America

16156. Rethinking Polanyi’s Fictitious Commodities Based on the Brazilian Nuclear Segment

Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The purpose of this paper is to show evidence of the undetermined expansion of Polanyi’s fictitious commodities within the Brazilian nuclear context. The issue of the marketification of social agendas has drawn a lot of attention to the data, collected through in-depth interviews. The analytical process was guided by the decolonial theory approach and by critical discourse analysis. Among the analysis’ main findings, it is possible to point out the elaboration of a framework which reveals the mechanisms employed by the Brazilian nuclear segment as a way of exercising parallel power and silencing social agendas. The main contributions are the temporal and geopolitical updating of Polanyi’s thesis; and the definition of the mechanisms used by the company Eletronuclear and by institutions as a way of co-optation, naturalisation and marketification of social and political agendas.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Neoliberalism, Decolonization, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

16157. China in UN Peacekeeping Operations: A 30-Year Assessment (1990-2019)

Author:: Renan Holanda Montenegro
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This article presents a broad assessment of Chinese personnel deployments to peacekeeping operations (PKOs) for the past three decades (1990-2019). To this end, an original dataset was built with data collected from the UN Department of Peace Operations. The following four indicators were considered in the analysis: (i) total personnel contribution per year; (ii) personnel contribution per mission; (iii) personnel contribution in relation to the mission’s total contingent; and (iv) personnel in a given mission in relation to the total personnel dispatched by China that year. Generally speaking, UN missions in Liberia (UNMIL) and South Sudan (UNMISS) have been the main destinations of Chinese peacekeepers in the 21st Century, while Cambodia (UNTAC) was by far the only place where China got deeply involved during the 1990s. In addition to displaying descriptive data, the paper also briefly analyses Chinese engagement in these operations.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Peace
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global Focus

16158. Sovereign Power, Government and Global Liberalism’s Crisis

Author:: Mariela Cuadro
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: For some time now a leading cause of debate among IR scholars has been the so-called Liberal International Order (LIO) and its assumed crisis. This article pierces this debate from a critical perspective asserting that different conceptions and analytics of power allow diverse questions on and diagnoses of liberalism in the global realm. With this objective, it confronts Ikenberry’s conception of LIO with the Foucauldian notion of liberalism. This is done by identifying the conception of power that underlies each notion of liberalism, assuming the former as performative. This way, it first defines two different conceptions of power: sovereign and governmental. Second, it links Ikenberry’s conception of LIO with the sovereign conception of power and points out the political and analytical effects of this relation, mainly, the hierarchical character of LIO and the consequent desire for a West-led world. Third, it develops Foucault’s conception of liberalism linked to governmental power and establishes some of its political and analytical effects: the importance of a heterarchical notion of power focused on the dimension of subject and subjectivity for the analysis of the present, and the political need to reflect on our practices of freedom.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Liberal Order, Liberalism, and Freedom
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16159. From Municipalist Activism to Institutional Changes: An Analysis of the Subnational Dimension in Mercosur (1995-2019)

Author:: Cairo Gabriel Borges Junqueira
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Mercosur has gone through distinct phases, leading to the articulation between a myriad of sectors, groups, and actors, among which subnational governments stand out. Local governments started this movement in 1995, with the foundation of the Mercosur Cities Network. In 2000, the Specialized Meeting of Municipalities and Intendencies (REMI) was created, replaced in the following years by the Mercosur Advisory Forum of Municipalities, States, Provinces, and Departments (FCCR), known for being the channel for subnational representation in the bloc. Drawing on bibliographic and document analysis, in addition to interviews and questionnaires, this article aims to analyze the internationalization and inclusion of subnational actors in Mercosur, mainly focusing on the changes observed over the years within these three institutions. The first section introduces the literature on paradiplomacy and deals specifically with Mercosur, seeking to verify how the regional agenda has been expanded, despite decision-making processes not being decentralized. The second and third sections analyse the origins of subnational integration through Mercocities alongside the development of REMI and FCCR. Considering the historical and institutional specificities of Mercosur, the research concludes by questioning the assumption of International Relations literature that regional blocs are potential arenas for effective internationalization of subnational governments.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Governance, Subnationalism, and Activism
Political Geography:: South America

16160. Chinese Investments in Brazil: Economic Diplomacy in Bilateral Relations

Author:: Virginia Soledad Busilli and Maria Belen Jaime
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China has consolidated its status as a great power and strengthened its presence in different regions of the planet. In accordance with its economic development strategy, Beijing’s growing bond with Latin America is part of China’s need to guarantee access to raw materials and energy resources. In this framework and through economic diplomacy, China has strengthened its trade relations, as well as loans and investments in most of the region’s countries.Brazil is an example of this relationship pattern, as one of China’s most important partners and top investment destination in Latin America. It became Beijing’s top commercial partner in 2012. This paper will analyse the composition and evolution of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Brazil between the years of 2004 and 2020. In order to do so, we will study the main projects carried out by the country, as well as the characteristics of the Chinese companies (state or non-state) that participated in the process, in order to understand their most important features. Likewise, we will analyse the articulation of the Chinese FDI with its trade flows. We will start from the premise that Chinese investments in Brazil are directly linked to Beijing’s strategic interests, while at the same time guided by market logics that try to maximise profits. In this vein, within the framework of the ‘going out strategy’,state companies play a fundamental role.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

16161. Military Build-up in Southeast Asia and the South China Sea: How Relevant Are the Disputes with China?

Author:: Bruno Hendler and Andre Luiz Cancado Motta
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the regions with the most dynamic and intense military activity in the world. This is largely due to commercial and political interests linked to the region, which is crucial for global maritime trade and rich in natural resources. China is the most interested party in the SCS, claiming 90% of its entire area, a portion referred to by Beijing as the “nine-dash line.” The present article seeks to analyse both quantitatively and qualitatively the influence of China on the military spending of four Southeast (SE) Asian countries that are also interested in the SCS: Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia. For quantitative analysis, we used the data for military expenditure, armaments acquisition, the frequency and type of incidents involving national navies and/or civilians. For qualitative analysis, we retrieved information from hemerographic sources and official documents from the United States, China, SE Asian countries, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and the World Bank (WB).
Topic:: Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Maritime, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

16162. Technical Election Assessment Mission in Serbia

Author:: Alexandra Brown, Andrew Rogan, Ashley Law, Cirilo Marinkovic, Fernanda Buril, Gina Chirillo, Jovana Strahinic, Nermin Nisic, Magnus Ohman, Rebecca Aaberg, Staffan Darnolf, and Steven Canham
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: Based on international standards and good practices adopted worldwide, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) applies its Technical Election Assessment Mission (TEAM) methodology to assess electoral environments. Using the TEAM model in Serbia, IFES assessed core areas of the electoral process — analyzing both the legal and regulatory framework and implementation practices — to provide technical support and recommendations for stakeholders and interested parties to strengthen electoral transparency and integrity. The report’s analysis and recommendations are designed to be addressed through the election reform process and relevant institutions, but also with tailored interventions facilitated by IFES, such as training, capacity building, civic awareness-raising and advocacy.
Topic:: Elections, Election watch, Voting, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:: Europe and Serbia

16163. Turks and Caicos Islands House of Assembly Elections: Technical Observation and Assessment Report

Author:: Anthony Banbury
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: The Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) held elections for the House of Assembly on February 19, 2021. At the invitation of the TCI governor and funded by the UK government, an independent team of elections experts from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) conducted an in-person technical observation and assessment. The IFES mission employed a modified version of IFES’ Technical Election Assessment Methodology, which allows for a broader assessment of the electoral process and context.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Voting, Election Observation, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Caribbean, North America, and Turks and Caicos Islands

16164. Overcoming Challenges to Democracy and Lorem Ipsum Governance Programs in Dolor Sit Post-Conflict Countries

Author:: Fernanda Buril, Bailey Dinman, and Chad Vickery
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: The quality of democracies around the globe is declining while political crises and conflicts are worsening in several regions. This context makes democracy and governance assistance both increasingly difficult and ever more crucial. In conflict and post-conflict transitional environments, weakened institutions, political turmoil, social divisions and grievances and security threats often hinder efforts to build or rebuild democracy and good governance. Although the COVID-19 crisis led to several ceasefires in early 2020, conflicts are still on the rise globally. This makes it crucial for donors and implementers to understand how to better support partners in these contexts, optimize resources and adapt and improve existing and future programs.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16165. Gender-Sensitive Indicators for Early Lorem Ipsum Warning of Violence Dolor Sit and Conflict

Author:: Louise Allen and Gina Chirillo
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: Conflict and violence monitoring and early warning systems can save lives. Gender-sensitive indicators help provide nuanced and complete contextual information to strengthen the systems’ predictive capacity, but their integration has been infrequent and inconsistent. Overlooking gender in early warning risks ignoring gender norms or behaviors that contribute to violence. It further risks formulating policies and responses that do not account for the differential needs and experiences of women, men, girls and boys. Simply put, we must integrate gender in early warning systems, and the alternative is dangerous.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Elections, Gender Based Violence, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16166. Social Media Strategies for Election Management Bodies

Author:: Gabe Morris
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: Technology platforms and products continue to transform politics and elections with prominent implications for voter trust and understanding. As social media increasingly becomes a space where disinformation and conspiracy about elections flourish, it is essential that democratic actors communicate effectively to share credible information that builds trust and brings transparency to the administration of elections. In keeping with the International Foundation for Electoral Systems’ (IFES) strategic commitment to ensuring that technology, information and data positively serve democracy and elections, we continue to provide tools and resources to help our partners around the world stay abreast of the evolving technological landscape. Despite the proliferation of challenges stemming from the evolution of social media and digital communication, IFES and its election management body (EMB) partners recognize the value of social media in reaching voters, enhancing transparency and countering disinformation and hate speech with credible, authoritative content.
Topic:: Elections, Social Media, Voting, and Digital Revolution
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16167. Kanak Mukherjee (1921-2005): Women of Struggle, Women in Struggle

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The twentieth century was marked by national liberation struggles that emerged in Africa and Asia, as well as in Latin America where neo-colonial structures had subordinated the formally independent countries. The achievements of the Russian Revolution in 1917 inspired the peasantry and the working class across the Global South. The fight for equality and liberation under the leadership of working people are ongoing in the anti-imperialist struggles of our time. Women, in a myriad of ways, powerfully shaped and continue to shape all of these struggles. In the Women of Struggle, Women in Struggle series of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research, we will present the stories of women in struggle who contributed not only to the wider arena of politics, but who also pioneered the establishment of women’s organisations, opening up paths of feminist resistance and struggle throughout the twentieth century. Praxis, as a knowledge of theory and of organisational methods of struggle as they change and respond to history, gives sustenance to ongoing struggles to face oppression. As militants, we study the diverse organisational methods of these women not only to better understand their political contributions, but also to inspire us as we build the organisations necessary for our fight against oppression and exploitation today. In this second study, we discuss the life and legacy of Kanak Mukherjee, a fighter for the people and people’s struggles who was born in undivided Bengal, India, in 1921. The rich trajectory of her activism teaches us about the history of women organising in local, national, and international struggles that linked women’s rights to anti-imperialist and anti-capitalist struggles throughout the twentieth century. In Mukherjee’s own words: ‘We cannot see the question of women’s rights in isolation. The roots of women’s subjugation and the discriminations against them lie in class exploitation’.
Topic:: Education, Imperialism, Colonialism, Feminism, Biography, and Gender
Political Geography:: India and Asia

16168. Risen from the Ruins: The Economic History of Socialism in the German Democratic Republic

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The German Democratic Republic (DDR) was a socialist state founded in 1949 as a democratic, antifascist reaction to the Second World War. It redistributed land, socialised the means of production, and collectivised the agricultural system. This socialist state established an egalitarian education, healthcare, and social system, and guaranteed equal rights between men and women. It cultivated friendly and close-knit economic relationships with other socialist states and supported countries fighting for their independence in Latin America, Asia, and Africa by showing international solidarity. The establishment of a just society based on the principles of equality was the DDR’s declared objective. With public ownership of the means of production as its foundation, the country developed into a powerful and efficient industrial state that used its economic profit for the benefit of its citizens and guaranteed them a life of social security. Ultimately, the DDR was extremely successful in realising its main socio-political goal: the satisfaction of the growing material and cultural needs of its people. But why bother re-examining the DDR’s achievements, principles, and structures thirty years after its downfall? What can we learn from the DDR’s alternative economic practices in today’s world, where the triumph of capitalism has exacerbated the problems of inequality and poverty and has resulted in more frequent crises? What did socialist democracy really look like? What contradictions arose from the everyday application of a planned economy? What lessons can we draw from the DDR’s ultimate failure? With this series Studies on the DDR, the Internationale Forschungsstelle DDR (International Research Centre DDR) together with Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research seek to encourage a new engagement with the history and principles of the DDR. It is our goal to re-evaluate the legacy and experiences of this socialist state. For this reason, we use the German acronym DDR, or Deutsche Demokratische Republik, (English: GDR) specifically because it often represents a positive point of reference in many parts of the world and especially for countries in the Global South. This educational series on the socialist agenda and realities of the DDR explores aspects of everyday life, provides facts about the country’s social achievements, and examines the political and economic foundations of this socialist state. By reflecting on the lived experiences of daily life, which are generally left out of the dominant narrative due to the crushing victory of capitalism and the dominance of the market economy, we hope to make a useful contribution to the debate currently taking place within progressive movements. After all, millions of people around the world are still fighting for advancements that were once a given in this socialist system but were lost with its downfall. This first publication in Studies on the DDR will briefly outline the formation of the DDR and its economic circumstances from the country’s inception to its end. In order to fully understand the specific DDR brand of socialism, we must highlight the historical conditions from which it emerged. The DDR was born in times of crisis in the aftermath of a devastating war as Germany – the instigator of the Second World War – was divided in two. It is imperative that we examine the DDR in its relationship to West Germany, which it opposed in the ensuing Cold War between the communist and capitalist systems. In 1990, after the reunification of Germany, the DDR economy was dismantled. It was treated as a shock therapy prototype for the austerity measures that were soon imposed on other countries – and not just the former socialist states. At the same time, the DDR was politically, judicially, and morally delegitimised. The publications in this series are a rejection of the narrative propagated by enemies of socialism, both new and old, that the downfall of the DDR proves the inevitable failure of socialist policy and economy. By depicting the realities of life in the DDR and by affirming the experiences of DDR citizens, we hope to remind the reader that alternatives to capitalism did and do exist.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, State Building, Socialism, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and East Germany

16169. Serve the People: The Eradication of Extreme Poverty in China

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Grandmother Peng Lanhua lives in a two-hundred-year-old rickety wooden house in a remote village of Guizhou Province. Born in 1935, she grew up in a China that was under Japanese occupation and entered adolescence during the Chinese Revolution. Peng is one of the few people in her community who did not want to relocate as part of the government’s poverty alleviation programme when the government designated her house unsafe to live in. Since 2013, eighty-six other households whose houses were deemed too dangerous or for whom jobs could not be generated locally were moved to a newly built community an hour’s drive away. But Peng has her reasons for not moving. She is eighty-six years-old and lives with Alzheimer’s disease. In addition to low-income insurance and a modest pension, she receives supplemental income from a new grapefruit company that leased her family’s land. The company, whose dividends are distributed to villagers like Peng as part of the national anti-poverty efforts, was established to develop the local agricultural industry. Peng’s daughter and son-in-law live next door in a two-storey house they built with government subsidies. Her children are employed. In other words, her basic needs are cared for, and relocation is voluntary. ‘We can’t force anyone to move, but we still have to provide the “three guarantees and two assurances”’, says Liu Yuanxue, the Party cadre sent to live in the village to see that every household emerges from extreme poverty. He is referring to the government poverty alleviation programme’s guarantee of safe housing, health care, and education, as well as being fed and clothed. Liu visits Peng on a monthly basis, as he does with all the households in the village. Through these visits, he comes to know the details of each person’s life. ‘The floor is too messy’, Liu says, jokingly reprimanding Peng’s daughter-in-law as he enters the large wooden house. She is also a member of the Communist Party of China. On the wall, a poster of Chairman Mao and, next to him, President Xi Jinping, pay homage to two of China’s socialist leaders who bookend the course of Peng’s life. Below their portraits sit a weathered table and a dusty terracotta water jug, an internet router flashing green beside them. A string of ethernet cables and wires stretch to different corners of the house (each house gets free internet and CCTV satellite television for three years before a subsidised rate sets in). There are energy-saving lightbulbs in each room and a satellite dish installed next to Peng’s hanging laundry. An extension of the house was built with a toilet and shower equipped with solar-heated running water, the mud floor poured over with concrete. As Lenin said, ‘Communism is Soviet power plus the electrification of the whole country’. Strengthening the Party in the countryside and meeting the concrete needs of the people have been pillars in China’s fight against poverty. Liu’s visit to Peng’s house is just one everyday scene in that process. The fact that Peng has lived in this house for half a century is also a product of the Revolution; in the 1970s, during the Cultural Revolution, the house was confiscated from a rich landlord and redistributed to three poor peasant families, including Peng’s. That cadres like Liu visit her on a monthly basis, that her house has been made safe to live in through the recent renovations, and that there is internet to connect the poorest of rural villages with the world is a continuation of this revolutionary history. After all, ensuring that the country’s workers and peasants like Peng get housed, fed, clothed, and cared for is part of China’s long struggle against poverty and a fundamental stage in constructing a socialist society.
Topic:: Poverty, Governance, Inequality, and Socialism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

16170. New Clothes, Old Threads: The Dangerous Right-Wing Offensive in Latin America

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: In Latin America, the adoption of the neo-reactionary and alternative right projects of the Global North appears to be a launching pad from which to modify the cognitive maps of the people and to shift political and discursive positions and public agendas to the right. This dossier analyses the right-wing developments in Latin America, identifying how they operate and with what discourses, what social base they mobilise, and their continuities of and ruptures with the history of the right wing in the continent.
Topic:: Politics, Far Right, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

16171. Big Tech and the Current Challenges Facing the Class Struggle

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The fact that the largest companies are in the field of information technologies raises a concern about the use of data for repression, control, and surveillance. This dossier seeks to understand the dynamic of contemporary capitalism and technological transformations and their social impact on class struggle, sparking a debate about the role of digital data and technology companies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Class, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16172. Indian Women on an Arduous Road to Equality

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Despite the constraints that their socioeconomic conditions impose on them time and again, Indian women have found their collective voice to fight for their rights. A vibrant women’s movement in various parts of India has fought against the apathy of the state towards the condition of women, attaining big and small victories in asserting the constitutional rights of women as citizens and workers.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Feminism, Social Order, Socioeconomics, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: India and Asia

16173. Black Community Programmes: The Practical Manifestation of Black Consciousness Philosophy

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: This dossier focuses on the Black Community Programmes, a series of projects initiated in 1972 that served as the practical implementation of the Black Consciousness philosophy to give Black people the power to become self-reliant. In practice, these programmes included the foundation of publications and research, health centres, factories to employ the economically marginalised, and a trust fund to provide basic necessities for ex-prisoners as well as grants for yet other projects.
Topic:: Race, Philosophy, Black Politics, and Consciousness
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16174. CoronaShock and Education in Brazil: One and a Half Years Later

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: This dossier seeks to assess the effects of CoronaShock on education in Brazil, in particular how a mercantile logic advanced through the pandemic and how large corporations in the sector took advantage of the crisis. It documents the actions of private corporations, changes in the educational model, the impact on workers in the sector, and the challenges facing a programme of struggle.
Topic:: Education, Governance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

16175. Defending Our Sovereignty: US Military Bases in Africa and the Future of African Unity

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The enduring presence of foreign military bases in Africa continues to fragment and weaken African state institutions, prevent African unity and sovereignty, and subordinate the aspirations of the continent for pan-African consolidation. Examining gendarme functions and geopolitics, dossier no. 42 explores how the presence of foreign militaries in Africa continues to impede African people in their pursuit of the two most important principles of pan-Africanism: political unity and territorial sovereignty.
Topic:: Imperialism, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Military Affairs, Foreign Interference, and Pan-Africanism
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

16176. The Farmers’ Revolt in India

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Despite India’s achievement of a certain level of self-sufficiency in food production over the decades, the chronic agrarian crisis, often manifested in the suicides of farmers, persists. This dossier traces the causes of this crisis, which go back to the days of British colonial rule and to the choices made by the Indian state at various points since independence.
Topic:: Agriculture, Food, Food Security, Colonialism, and Farming
Political Geography:: India and Asia

16177. The Challenges Facing Brazil’s Left

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Brazil is living through a reactionary situation led by far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who relies on the social support and approval of the country’s ruling classes and Armed Forces. Meanwhile, the Brazilian left aims to regroup and recreate its social base as it tries to regain the political stewardship of the country. Through interviews with leaders of popular movements and parties in Brazil, dossier no. 40 analyses the challenges facing Brazil’s left in this difficult reality.
Topic:: Governance, Military Affairs, Far Right, and Leftist Politics
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

16178. Pity the Nation: Honduras Is Being Eaten from within and without

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Where does Honduras stand twelve years after the 2009 coup? In our dossier, jointly produced with People’s Dispatch and the Civic Council of Popular and Indigenous Organisations of Honduras (COPINH), we look at the coup against progressive leader and President Manuel Zelaya and the prolonged violence in the country in the years since by examining the assassination of Berta Cáceres, the forced disappearances of five members of the Garifuna community in July 2020, and the concerted attacks on trade unionism to understand the far-reaching impacts of the coup.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Coup, and Assassination
Political Geography:: Latin America, Central America, North America, and Honduras

16179. Uncovering the Crisis: Care Work in the Time of Coronavirus

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The pandemic uncovered a reality that has long been brewing in which inequalities, injustices, and asymmetries are violently embedded in the order of society. The crisis of wage-based society did not alter the unequal distribution of work, nor did it recognise it as an integral element of all lives – despite how feminisms have long politicised this discussion. This dossier focuses on three main areas around three main areas: communities, houses/homes, and domestic and care work.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Feminism, Pandemic, COVID-19, Domestic Work, and Caregivers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16180. Dawn: Marxism and National Liberation

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Dossier no. 37 is an invitation to a dialogue, a conversation about the entangled tradition of Marxism and national liberation – a tradition that emerges out of the October Revolution and that deepens its roots in the anti-colonial conflicts of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This is an introduction to a wide-ranging conversation that includes many different revolutionary movements, mostly rooted in the continents of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
Topic:: Socialism/Marxism, Colonialism, Revolution, Liberalization, and Anti-Colonialism
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America

16181. Twilight: The Erosion of US Control and the Multipolar Future

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: At the conclusion of World War II, with the European powers severely weakened, the United States – the most powerful of Europe’s settler colonies – took over the neo-colonial management of the planet. Now, almost eighty years later, the primacy of the United States has entered twilight. This dossier explores the emergence of a new cold war imposed by the United States on China and the forms of hybrid war that have been utilised against countries that it deems to be a threat.
Topic:: Imperialism, Hegemony, Conflict, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16182. The Legacy of Lekra: Organising Revolutionary Culture in Indonesia

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: In 1965, the Indonesian revolutionary cultural organisation, Lekra, had 200,000 members and one and half million supporters. This was followed by a coup and the killing of one million communists in the months that followed. On the seventieth anniversary since its founding, this dossier traces Lekra’s history and calls on the artists and militants of today to combine individual creativity with the wisdom of the masses, from whose struggles for emancipation we seek hope and direction.
Topic:: Culture, Revolution, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Asia-Pacific

16183. Prospects for US-Russia Relations in the Context of the Biden-Putin Summit

Author:: Giorgio Bilanishvili
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Today, the main vector of Russia's foreign policy continues to go through a confrontation with the West in the international arena, especially with the United States. This fact is important for international politics and, even more so, for the context of Georgia's national security. As a whole, so far, the Biden administration's policy toward Russia is not different from that of its predecessors - the Trump administration and the Obama administration. Its main characteristics are poor bilateral relations and sanctions imposed on Russia, since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and launched a military intervention in eastern Ukraine. At the same time, the US expert community is inclined to say that balancing China's growing influence is a top foreign policy priority of the Biden administration and the realization of this policy could alter US foreign policy vis-à-vis Russia. The Biden-Putin summit held in Geneva on June 16 this year should be understood as a starting point of the US administration's relations with Moscow. Most probably, the parties have "tested the ground" on many different topics, including those where their positions differ the most. Although, this summit did not bring a drastic change between the two countries, which indeed was less expected, but it has relatively increased the dynamics of the relations between the two countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia and United States of America

16184. AUKUS - A Harbinger of a New Geopolitical Reality

Author:: Giorgi Badridze
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: In September of this year, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the creation of a new defense pact in the Asia-Pacific region called AUKUS (which is an abbreviation for the names of the member states: Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States). This paper will discuss the objectives of this new tripartite pact as well as the rationale behind the reactions thereto vis-à-vis leading international players and how it reflects the current balance of power and security prospects in the world. Ongoing processes in the world today, including the creation of AUKUS, indicate that China's power and influence have grown so much that the more or less stabile world order may be radically altered if this is not balanced within the security sphere. The main task of the United States (the dominant power of the existing world order) and its allies is to prevent irreversible changes in world order; in particular, those that will accelerate the formation of Chinese hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Alliance, and AUKUS
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Australia, and United States of America

16185. The Platform of the 3+3 Format: A Review

Author:: Badri Belkania
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The aftermath of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, which in Ankara and Baku was hailed as a triumphant victory for the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance, significantly changed the political situation and the balance of power in the Caucasus region. The turn of the decades-long status quo in favor of Azerbaijan showed that a new phase has begun in the region, often pointed out so by the victorious side as well. 1 Against the backdrop of a significantly changed regional agenda and the growing Turkish-Azerbaijani influence in the Caucasus, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan introduced the idea of establishing a six-member regional cooperation platform. If the idea were to materialize, the members would include Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Georgia, and Armenia.2 Erdogan's idea received a wide response in the region. The new platform for regional cooperation (Russia, Iran, Turkey + Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) has become an important topic of discussion in all six countries, primarily due to its controversial format. The idea of geographically adjacent but politically different countries joining one platform is in direct conflict with the opposing interests of these countries. Despite this significant obstacle, the apologists for the idea, that seeks to replace the conflicts and tensions in the Caucasus with a "long-term peace," remain hopeful that the platform will have a future.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Political Geography:: Turkey and Azerbaijan

16186. Religious Aspects of the Iran-Azerbaijan Conflict: Is There a Danger of a New Hybrid War?

Author:: Aleksandre Kvakhadze
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have become unprecedentedly strained over the past month. Iranian military forces are mobilizing across the Iran-Azerbaijan border. At the same time, a new Turkish military contingent was deployed in Azerbaijan and joint military exercises were held in the territory of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.1 Officials from both countries were engaged in an unfriendly rhetoric. It is unlikely that this tension between Iran and the Turkey-Azerbaijan military alliance will escalate into an open, large-scale military confrontation, but, nevertheless, there is the opinion that the Iranian state will continue hybrid warfare in Azerbaijan through the support of political and religious groups in the medium and long term based on the examples of other countries.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Religion, Alliance, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Iran and Azerbaijan

16187. Iran-Azerbaijan Confrontation: Threats and Challenges

Author:: Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Iran-Azerbaijan relations have never been easy but they became particularly tense in September-October 2021, attracting attention within the region and beyond. This confrontation between the parties escalated into large-scale military exercises and a war of statements but, fortunately, the tension did not reach a level of military confrontation. In the second half of October, the confrontation slowly subsided. However, the problem has not disappeared. Its causes still exist and have a great potential of reigniting the conflict. Such a situation creates a fertile ground for a number of threats and challenges for the entire region, including Georgia.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

16188. The Interests of Turkey and Iran in Afghanistan: Threats and Challenges

Author:: Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: In the summer of 2021, as the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, the balance of power in the country changed rapidly, and by August 15, the Taliban was able to capture the capital, Kabul, almost without a fight. On September 7, the Taliban formed a new "government" steered by Sharia Law. The Taliban also renamed the country, and, according to them, Afghanistan is now called the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan." There are no women or members of the Shiite minority in the new government. Of the 33 members of the still-incomplete government, only three belong to ethnic minorities.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Taliban, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey

16189. European defence: Specialisation by capability groups

Author:: Dick Zandee
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In many professions specialisation is regarded as a virtue. In a hospital the surgeon, the anaesthetist and the nurse have specialised skills. Together they engage in teamwork to cure patients. Yet, when it comes to defence, specialisation has a negative connotation. Contrary to the hospital’s operating theatre, dependency on each other’s armed forces is regarded as a serious, if not unacceptable risk, as a country has to be able to defend itself without relying on capabilities to be provided by other states. In reality, however, interdependence is a fact: European countries have relied on the nuclear deterrent of the United States since the 1950s and with regard to conventional forces, no single European country can provide all necessary capabilities. The question is how European interdependence can be made more effective. The answer must partly lie in specialisation. This Policy Brief addresses specialisation in security and defence from the perspective of the ‘Team Europe’ approach of distributing tasks and operating with varying coalitions of European countries in order to make the EU (and in this case also NATO) more effective. It presents a model of structuring European armed forces in specialised groups – an idea that has been proposed in a Clingendael report published earlier this year. First, the Policy Brief lays out the playing field by explaining the model of European capability groups. Next, several options for European capability groups will be proposed. It concludes with listing the implications for the Netherlands.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Specialization
Political Geography:: Europe

16190. The RRF as administrative subsidiarity

Author:: Adriaan Schout
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: When the corona crisis broke out, it was clear that eurozone economies were ill prepared for new setbacks. Put differently, the SGP had failed to produce convergence. The RRF offers an opportunity to reconsider the effectiveness of economic governance and to strengthen national ownership for sound economic policies. Despite its potential merits, the RRF was not designed to reinforce national institutions to monitor and correct their own economic policies. Creating the required ownership for sound economic policies would have demanded empowering the independent National Productivity Boards (NPBs) and Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs), and integrating them in a redesigned independent network-based European Fiscal Board (EFB). The failure in 2020 to include the NPBs, IFIs and the EFB also implies a major break with the Fiscal Compact, Two Pack and Six Pack that aimed at empowering national institutions. The RRF concerns a major financial commitment and could thus have been used as bargaining chip to strengthen the long-term reform measures by insisting on a subsidiarity-based European monitoring and enforcement system, including mutual inspections, and build around the nascent macroeconomic independent national and EU agencies. Such decentralized systems have proved their worth in successful European policy areas such as in monitoring the state of the environment in member states. This will have consequences for the organization of the EU Commission. Using the lessons from the RRF to (forget to) strengthen national institutions is also relevant for redesigning the SGP. Firstly, redesigning the NPBs, IFIs and EFB will offer a suitable model for monitoring national policies as a replacement of the current centralized control under the SGP by the Commission. Secondly, the future development of the RRF and NGEU can be used as bargaining chip in the negotiations on the SGP. The review of the SGP will involve adaptation of rules, reinstituting the ESM, and deciding on new emergency funds. The negotiations ahead offer opportunities and leverage for steering towards a pro-active and constructive role for the Netherlands in the elaboration of subsidiarity-based economic governance.
Topic:: Governance, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

16191. Military coup betrays Sudan’s revolution: Scenarios to regain the path towards full civilian rule

Author:: Anette Hoffman
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: On Monday 25 October 2021, Lieutenant-General Abdul-Fattah al-Burhan staged a military coup that stalled Sudan’s political transition towards civilian rule. With the government dissolved and a state of emergency declared, two years of painfully gained achievements towards democracy could be lost, the hopes of millions of peaceful protestors shattered, and an already fragile region further destabilised. The military takeover is a desperate attempt by the generals to protect the security elite’s economic interests and to abscond from justice. In response to the coup, millions of Sudanese mobilised to reject the coup and demand full civilian rule. Western governments and the EU have strongly condemned the coup and suspended economic support, while Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are believed to back it. Three outcomes from the current crisis are on the table: a) a full civilian transitional government; b) a return to the power-sharing agreement; or c) military dictatorship. To assist Sudan to regain its path towards democracy, Western governments must put all their weight behind the civilian demands and: i) streamline the ongoing mediation processes and ensure civil society is consulted; ii) bolster the legitimacy of Prime Minister Hamdok and his cabinet, iii) increase pressure on Sudan’s military junta and its backers; and iv) strengthen Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement. This brief presents three plausible scenarios for a way out of the crisis and concludes with considerations for policy makers to get Sudan back on track towards democratic rule.
Topic:: Coup, Revolution, Instability, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

16192. Covid-19 prompts the EU and the Netherlands to rethink global health

Author:: Louise Van Schaik and Remco van de Pas
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Covid-19 pandemic prompted a strong re-engagement in global health. Because the pandemic coincided with geopolitical rifts between the US and China, but required a global response, the EU and its member states took responsibility to safeguard the World Health Organization (WHO) and initiated global arrangements for vaccine sharing for developing countries. Within the EU, mandates and global health functions have traditionally been underdeveloped and divided between the development and health sectors. For the Netherlands, this is perhaps the case to an even larger extent. Development funding has focused primarily on sexual and reproductive health and rights, and the health ministry has had limited interest and capacity on international health issues, with the exception of certain specific issues such as Anti-Microbial Resistance (AMR) and medicine prices. Spending on global health by both the EU and the Netherlands has been fragmented, with mainly ad hoc budgets being made available for the international pandemic response. This policy brief calls for a structural response and more coherent outlook on global health.
Topic:: Development, European Union, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

16193. Turning EU green energy diplomacy into reality

Author:: Louise Van Schaik, Akash Ramnath, and Giulia Cretti
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In Spring 2022, the European Commission will present its International Energy Engagement strategy, which will undoubtedly reflect that the European Green Deal nowadays tops the Brussels agenda. From being a traditional buyer of fossil fuels, the EU is adapting to become an exporter of green energy solutions and, to some degree, an importer of green energy. At a time when energy prices are historically high and EU climate policy is accelerating, this policy brief analyses what a more pro-active EU green energy diplomacy could look like. In light of this shift, a review is made of which instruments the EU could deploy to support green energy transitions and discourage third countries from continuing extraction and production of fossil fuels. It recommends the EU takes a firm stance on phasing out fossil fuel and enter dialogue with some of its current fossil fuel suppliers on the implications of its own transition. The EU will need to establish new partnerships on green energy provision, technology and critical raw materials needed for the transition.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Green Deal, European Commission, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

16194. ‘If you want to go far, go together’ Community engagement and infrastructure development in fragile settings

Author:: Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In fragile and conflict-affected settings (FCAS), infrastructure development is a sharp double-edged sword: it can foster sustainable and inclusive development, but it can also exacerbate fragility and conflict. This brief argues that a substantial engagement of local communities has the potential to improve the conflict sensitivity of infrastructure efforts in FCAS. To ensure that these efforts have a positive impact on fragility dynamics, however, due attention should also be paid to the specific choices made in terms of project design and implementation. The brief offers a set of pragmatic considerations aimed at supporting practitioners navigating such choices. In addition, to ensure a proper tailoring of project choices to the specific context, practitioners should also rely extensively on conflict sensitivity analyses, monitoring the interaction between the project and the context’s underlying drivers of fragility throughout the whole project cycle. While so far CDD projects have mostly focused on small-scale infrastructure, efforts should be devoted to explore whether and how CDD approaches can be applied to larger infrastructure projects.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Fragility
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16195. From indices to insight: A proposal to enhance the risk assessment of the Dutch Early Warning/Early Action process

Author:: Bob Deen, Adaja Stoetman, and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Over the course of the last three decades, countless scholars, diplomats and experts have sought to develop reliable ways to predict and prevent violent conflict and instability. These efforts have yielded a vast array of analytical instruments, ranging from indices that measure various proximate and structural causes of instability to forecasting models that estimate the probability of an outbreak of violent conflict. Predicting and preventing violent conflict and instability Presently, there is a great deal of data available ranging from better measures of political violence and better predictors of violence. Moreover, as data sciences advance, social scientists have been able to develop new models and refine their predictions. However, as such tools proliferate, so do the challenges for policymakers. First, more data does not always mean ‘better’ data. Key indicators such as on political inclusivity, local grievances and competition are often still not readily available. Second, more data and better methodologies have not always meant a better insight into conflict risks. While we have generally become better in predicting the continuation and intensity of ongoing conflict, it remains a major challenge to predict which countries will become unstable and when. Third, perhaps the biggest problem is that even when having a clear insight into conflict risks, converting these insights into actionable policies remains difficult. In these instances, it is often not a lack of information or insufficient early warning signals per se that pose the key obstacles, but rather the ability to convert these data points into policy-relevant analysis and to identify relevant entry points for preventive efforts.
Topic:: Political Violence, Conflict, Risk, and Instability
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

16196. Costing Conflict: An early warning method to assess the impact of political violence on vital security interests

Author:: Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Early Warning and Early Action (EWEA) processes seek to identify the risk of conflict, instability and violence. A large number of foresight models can predict which countries and areas may experience what type and what levels of violence. From this, they produce lists of countries and regions at risk which then qualify for policy measures to help improve stability. However, in order to prioritise countries and regions it is equally important to assess the implications (or the cost) of conflict. For example, Early Warning by the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM) seeks to “prevent tensions from escalating into conflict” and focus on all forms of tension accordingly. UNDP Early Warning seeks to understand how conflict impacts development initiatives and will prioritise countries with those problems. Mandates and interests thus determine priorities.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16197. Unpacking open strategic autonomy: From concept to practice

Author:: Luuk Molthof, Dick Zandee, and Giulia Cretti
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Amidst the weakening of the multilateral system, the rise of multipolarity, and the Covid-19 pandemic, the concept of European strategic autonomy (ESA) has gained considerable traction. In fact, according to European Council President Charles Michel, the strategic independence of Europe is ‘our new common project for this century’ and ‘goal number one for our generation’. Long seen as a French pipedream, and first applied in 2013 to Europe’s defence and security policy, the ambition of strategic autonomy is now backed by a growing number of member states and is increasingly applied to a broad range of policy areas, including industrial and trade policy.
Topic:: Multilateralism, Trade Policy, COVID-19, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe

16198. Warring partners: Exploiting the failed coup in the political transition in Sudan

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The failed coup attempt in Sudan expanded dispute between the partners in power, the military and the civilians, who both sought to use it to lead the transitional phase as per their own priorities.
Topic:: Politics, Coup, Civilians, Transition, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

16199. The Middle East: From a decade of conflict to an age of reconciliation

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Swift reconciliations initiated by regimes with the purpose of cutting their losses and shoring up their own sources of power are not enough to establish enduring stability and a genuinely cooperative regional order.
Topic:: Political stability, Conflict, Reconciliation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

16200. The crisis of the Turkish lira: Toward economic collapse or a new economic model?

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: As with any economic or fiscal policy, Erdogan is taking a risk, betting that his vision can turn the Turkish economy around. The only problem is that with presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2023, he has just 18 months to prove the efficacy of his policies.
Topic:: Economy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fiscal Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

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