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15552. After the OECD-Deal: Transatlantic Cooperation and International Corporate Tax Reform
- Author:
- Shahin Vallée and Ben Judah
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Tax avoidance by multinational corporations has become a central feature of the world economy. After decades of opposition, the US wants to set a global minimum corporation tax rate and limit tax avoidance, but it will need all of Europe to stand behind it. A historic 130-country OECD tax agreement is giving some hope but both sides of the Atlantic will need to confront deeply rooted interests if they want to implement the deal and build a new cooperative tax reform framework.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Reform, Economy, Transatlantic Relations, Corporate Tax, and OECD
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
15553. The Hidden G2 for Democratic Tech Governance is the EU-US Relationship: A Starter Kit
- Author:
- Tyson Barker
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The EU and the United States are expected to launch a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) on the sidelines of the US-EU Summit in mid-June, which could present a rare opportunity to jumpstart the EU-US technology relationship. Against the backdrop of rapid technological change, a transatlantic digital technology community could be a 21st-century answer to the Coal and Steal Community – a big democratic project that reaches across borders, knits like-minded communities together in a manner that reinforces shared values, and codifies standards of market access, increased interdependence, and intensified political dialogue.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, Democracy, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
15554. Three Ideas to Improve the International Role of the ECB
- Author:
- Shahin Vallée and Daniela Gabor
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The ECB has been forced – in part by the COVID-19 crisis – to review its bilateral arrangements with foreign central banks. But the recent changes made by the ECB fall short of the European Commission’s ambitions to boost the international role of the euro. We suggest the ECB should put in place an alternative three-pillar framework to improve the international role of the ECB and cement its pivotal role in the international financial system.
- Topic:
- European Union, Banks, International System, and European Commission
- Political Geography:
- Europe
15555. A Capable EU Is No Utopia: Strategic Lessons from the German Presidency
- Author:
- Anna-Lena Kirch
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Overall, as the COVID-19 crisis unfolded, the EU proved capable to act. Crisis management addressing the pandemic benefited from the fact that Germany held the presidency of the EU Council in the second half of 2020 and could build upon its traditional approach: developing European capabilities, including all governments, and being prepared for the unexpected. Now, going forward, Germany needs to use its experience with complexity and uncertainty to help form a strategic doctrine for the EU.
- Topic:
- European Union, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
15556. Blurry Counterterrorism: A Chance for Russia, A Risk for Europe
- Author:
- Miriam Heß
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The European Union should actively address the problematic use of counterterrorism by non-European states – especially Russia – and make it a permanent aspect in developing counterterrorism strategies and agendas. Failing to address the misuse of counterterrorism sends the wrong signal not only to those with reason to fear geopolitical interference by their countries of origin, but also to states that pursue “anti-terrorist-operations” in the form of abductions and executions abroad.
- Topic:
- European Union, Counter-terrorism, Geopolitics, and Risk
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
15557. Germany Between a Rock and a Hard Place in China-US Competition
- Author:
- Markus Jaeger
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration has just issued its Interim National Security Strategic Guidance. The guidance document states the need to “build back better at home” and acknowledges that “international economic policies must serve all Americans” – a theme often referred to as “foreign policy for the middle class”. While the interim guidance does not preclude cooperation with China in selected policy areas, it is unambiguous in considering China a strategic competitor. The prospect of intensifying China-US geopolitical and (geo)economic competition is bad news for Germany, which has high value trading and investment relationships with both countries.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, National Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, Germany, North America, and United States of America
15558. To the Viktor Go the Spoils: What Orbán Needs to Form a New Political Camp in Europe
- Author:
- Milan Nič and Julian Rappold
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The next months will show whether Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán can retain his influence in Europe even outside its largest political family. Having left the center-right European People’s Party before his party was finally pushed out, Orbán is now trying to regroup and unite the populist and Euroskeptic forces in European Parliament. What looks like a defeat could still be turned to his advantage if it leads to a lasting reshuffle of political alliances and strengthens illiberal voices.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Populism, and European Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Hungary
15559. Assessing China and Russia’s Influence on the German Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Didi Kirsten Tatlow and András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- China and Russia want to maintain Germany’s political status quo: Centrist, at times mercantilist policies, have often worked in their favor. Now, with the Green Party ascendant and public opinion shifting, neither Russia nor China can be sure that classic "centrism” will emerge after September. Russia and China will increase their influence and interference efforts in the run-up to the election and beyond, using informational, political, and cyber tactics, and economic and political networks.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Public Opinion, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia
15560. Productivity and the Pandemic: ShortTerm Disruptions and Long-Term Implications
- Author:
- Klaas de Vries, Abdul Erumban, and Bart van Ark
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses quarterly estimates of productivity growth at industry level for three advanced economies, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, for 2020. We use detailed industry-level data to distinguish reallocations of working hours between industries from pure within-industry productivity gains or losses. We find that all three countries showed positive growth rates of aggregate output per hour in 2020 over 2019. However, after removing the effects from the reallocation of hours between low and high productivity industries, only the US still performed positively in terms of withinindustry productivity growth. In contrast, the two European economies showed negative within-industry productivity growth rates in 2020. While above-average digital-intensive industries outperformed belowaverage ones in both France and the UK, the US showed higher productivity growth in both groups compared to the European countries. Industries with medium-intensive levels of shares of employees working from home prior to the pandemic made larger productivity gains in 2020 than industries with the highest pre-pandemic work-from-home shares. The paper also experiments with US data on employment at county level by allocating within-industry productivity contributions for 2020 to urban, sub-urban and rural areas, showing that the contributions to within-industry productivity growth from manufacturing and other production industries in urban and sub-urban areas increased during the pandemic. Overall, after taking into account the productivity collapse in the hospitality and culture sector during 2020, productivity growth shows no clear deviation from the slowing pre-pandemic productivity trend. Future trends in productivity growth will depend on whether the favourable productivity gains (or smaller losses) in industries with above-average digital intensity will outweigh negative effects from the pandemic, in particular scarring effects on labour markets and business dynamics.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Work Culture, Pandemic, COVID-19, Productivity, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, France, and United States of America
15561. Why Wages Are Growing Rapidly Now— And Will Continue to in the Future
- Author:
- Gad Levanon and Frank Steemers
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- In the first half of 2021, wages grew at the fastest pace in over 20 years. The sudden surge is likely to challenge organizations in recruitment, retention, and compensation strategies in the near term—and over the next decade. Wage growth in the US through 2022 and beyond fits into three distinct phases: 1) strong wage growth in the spring and summer of 2021; 2) moderating wage growth by late 2021 and during 2022; and 3) renewed acceleration of wages in 2023 and beyond, most notably in blue-collar and manual services.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, Business, and Wage Growth
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
15562. Building Infrastructure in Real Time: Avoiding Regulatory Paralysis
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The physical infrastructure base of the US economy, once an advantage in global competition, has become a liability. This problem has multiple causes, several of which CED has addressed in recent policy statements, and our nation’s elected policymakers are now taking up the need for additional funding. But the nation needs not only adequate funding but also a more-efficient regulatory process for our infrastructure investment—choosing the right projects, with the minimum delay, and executing them at the least possible cost. Regulatory paralysis is one of the causes of our infrastructure shortfall. It needs attention if we are going to spend our tax dollars on infrastructure wisely and efficiently so that the US economy remains globally competitive. Streamlining regulatory procedures, promoting competition, and cutting red tape across federal, state, and local governments are key to increasing investment, decreasing cost, and maximizing efficiency. Business as usual will not suffice. It takes too long and costs too much to deliver infrastructure projects, preventing us from achieving the advancements and improvements that a future-focused, competitive economy requires. CED has consistently advocated “smart regulation,” subjecting new regulations to rigorous cost-benefit analysis and reviewing existing regulations for continuing cost effectiveness to enhance efficiency and achieve quicker execution, greater benefits, and lower costs. With long delays between project conception and execution, and often multiple layers of jurisdiction and review, a smart regulation approach could ensure that the rules governing review and permitting of projects address all important concerns and ensure that net benefits are maximized over time at all levels of government on a comprehensive and timely basis.
- Topic:
- Economics, Infrastructure, Governance, Regulation, Business, Economic Policy, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15563. What Does China’s Update of its Anti-Monopoly Law and New Regulations for the “Platform Economy” Mean for Business?
- Author:
- David Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The recently enacted revisions to China’s Anti-Monopoly Law, and its extensive provisions for regulating China’s “platform economy” – i.e., fintech and ecommerce platforms – are consequential for foreign investors in China, bearing both upside and downside risks. On the one hand, they reinforce the trend of increasing state intervention in China’s economy and commercial markets and raise concerns about a more confined and controlled play-space for the private sector in China, a cohort which includes foreign multinational companies and financial investors.
- Topic:
- Governance, Law, Economy, Business, Investment, Monopoly, Private Sector, and Commerce
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
15564. Headquarters-China "Co" Relations - Navigating the Very Contemporary Yins and Yangs of MNC Business in China
- Author:
- David Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- Many China organizations of western multinational companies (MNCs) report increasing friction and misalignment with headquarters (HQ) across a range of China issues. We observe three primary sources of tension and misalignment: a differing appraisal of risks, including, importantly, confidence in abilities to protect IP; a differing calculus on the evaluation of opportunities; and concerns, at HQ and Board level, about the control implications of increasingly divergent, if not more autonomous, China operations.
- Topic:
- Economy, Business, Multinational Corporations, and Private Sector
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Global Focus
15565. A US Infrastructure Plan: Building for the Long Haul
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- Addressing America’s severe infrastructure needs—finally—must be at the top of the nation’s agenda. Improving infrastructure is one of the few issues that enjoys strong bipartisan support among the American public. Eighty percent of Americans support rebuilding our nation’s infrastructure—more than almost any other top issue facing the nation—and roughly two-thirds of Americans rate their own local roads as in fair or poor condition.1 A similar proportion say that the country is not doing enough to meet infrastructure needs.2 Modern, effective infrastructure is essential for virtually all US commerce and, therefore, for growth and prosperity that is widely shared among all Americans. Transportation and other forms of infrastructure must remake themselves to remain productive as the economy changes around them. But the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US economy makes improving our infrastructure, keeping America competitive, and getting Americans back to work that much more urgent. The pandemic has forced an accelerated integration of technology into the work, school and personal lives of many Americans. But that has revealed inequities in access to reliable, high-speed internet. This experience is one more example of how our nation’s deficient infrastructure slows our economic growth generally. Around 24 million US households lack access to reliable, affordable, high-speed internet. If not addressed, weak infrastructure can deprive many Americans of equal access to opportunity. And at the same time, climate change threatens the foundations of our economy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Infrastructure, Economy, Transportation, Sustainability, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15566. Broadband Access - Connecting America
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- With most Americans dependent on reliable, high-quality, high-speed internet services to work, train, consult with doctors, or attend school from home, the COVID-19 pandemic vividly demonstrates that affordability and access barriers leave too many families behind. As America’s leaders in business and policy work toward a postpandemic economic recovery that delivers increasing prosperity for American families and preserves our nation’s economic leadership, they must also build toward a vision of a fully wired nation that meets the internet needs of all its citizens. Innovation and competition in information technology have been essential to delivering a higher quality of life and modern commerce, and they will be integral to lasting solutions that close two stubborn gaps that leave a minority of Americans behind. First, millions of Americans—particularly in the least densely populated areas—lack access to reliable high-quality internet services that could connect them to essential educational, employment, and entrepreneurial opportunities. Second, large numbers of low-income Americans with physical access to such services cannot afford them at current market prices, leaving them “underserved,” with less economic opportunity than their higher-income peers. In too many areas, a lack of competition among providers contributes to underservice. As needed internet speeds and associated hardware and technologies have advanced, closing these high-speed internet service gaps—increasing economic opportunity and strengthening businesses and communities—is essential. Policymakers must leverage the dynamism and innovation of the private market, increase competition in the provision of services, and invest wisely to close the gaps, boost deployment and affordability, and meet the universal service and critical technologies goals that have motivated nearly a century of federal telecommunications law.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Communications, Infrastructure, Internet, Economy, and Business
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15567. The American Jobs Plan: The Made-in-America Tax Plan
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- President Biden proposes to follow up on his $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan” with a new “American Jobs Plan” and a “Made-in-America Tax Plan.” A White House fact sheet was released early on Wednesday, March 31. It did not include a clearly itemized cost statement, but the total of the initiatives is apparently in excess of $2 trillion over eight years. Some portion of that cost is claimed to be offset— over 15 years—by corporate income tax increases included in the tax plan.
- Topic:
- Employment, Tax Systems, Public Policy, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15568. Vaccinating America
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- In December 2020, one year after the COVID-19 virus had been reported in China, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted emergency use authorization in back-to-back announcements for the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna/NIAID vaccines. This was by far the fastest vaccine development in history. A typical vaccine took 10 years to develop, with the most rapid previous development being the four years it had taken for the mumps vaccine in 1967.1 And these two vaccines were of a new type, utilizing messenger RNA (mRNA). While mRNA had been studied for years, the unique spike protein of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 provided a first opportunity to respond with an mRNA vaccine.2 The ensuing technological and scientific success could not have been accomplished without the collaboration of the private and public sectors. The distribution of the vaccine nationally could not have been accomplished without the major delivery companies stepping up to meet the challenges of on-time distribution of the vaccines, which required very cold storage. The research, development, and nationwide distribution of the vaccines has evoked comparisons to the private-public sector collaboration during WWII that led to the Manhattan Project’s rapid and dramatic scientific breakthroughs.3 After death tolls climbed into the hundreds of thousands, the vaccine announcements provided hope that there may be light at the end of the very dark COVID-19 tunnel. By the end of May, the United States is expected to have sufficient vaccine supply for the entire adult American population. But the challenge to manufacture, distribute, and administer the vaccinations quickly, efficiently, and fairly, in a race against continued infection and the emergence of variants of the virus here and all around the world, requires continued collaboration between the public and private sectors. The US and the world must win that race between vaccination and mutation to achieve “herd immunity” and return to normality in daily life and the economy. The stakes are high for both the current crisis and the inevitable pandemics of the future. For this reason, the following analysis offers a diagnosis of the current episode, and recommendations for today and tomorrow.
- Topic:
- Public Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15569. A US Workforce Training Plan for the Postpandemic Economy
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- Though the US economy is expected to recover to its prepandemic level of production (gross domestic product or GDP) by the second quarter of 2021, the postpandemic economy will be different in many important ways. The pandemic’s acceleration of trends toward remote work, digital transformation, and automation could permanently reduce demand for low-skill jobs. To build a large and fully competitive US workforce and reduce inequality, aggressive reskilling will be needed. Even before the global pandemic’s onslaught, preparing the future workforce to drive rapidly advancing technology in an increasingly competitive global economy—and minimize the adverse fallout from these trends—was one of the nation’s greatest challenges. COVID-19 has made this challenge more urgent. Now, an estimated 40 percent of workers will need short-term training and reskilling by 2025.1 American leadership, prosperity, and competitiveness will hinge on maximizing the skills of our nation’s workers. The pandemic has disproportionately displaced minority workers, women, youth, and workers with lower educational attainment, many of whom are among the near-record 40-plus percent of the jobless who have been unemployed more than six months. Such displaced workers, or the “long-term unemployed,” typically find it hard to get a new job the longer they are without one. For many of them, securing a new job will require training for skills that are in demand.
- Topic:
- Partnerships, Economy, Business, Training, COVID-19, and Workforce
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15570. American Families Plan
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- As the President indicated when he released his “American Jobs Plan” in March, he presented his “American Families Plan” on April 28, the day of his address to Congress. This new plan is additive with the previous one, and would spend (including through tax cuts—$1 trillion in spending strictly defined, and $800 billion in tax cuts) an additional $1.8 trillion, which is proposed to be financed by tax increases on upper-income individuals. (The $2 trillion American Jobs Plan was to be paid for by increased taxes on corporations.) Again, this plan is claimed to be fully paid for over 15 years, with continuing tax increases beyond that time providing net deficit reduction. The American Families Plan, as its name implies, focuses on expenditures and tax cuts for individuals and households, whereas most (but not all) of the American Jobs Plan financed either traditional infrastructure or private research or physical investment. Unless there is a new spirit of bipartisan cooperation, the American Jobs Plan and the American Families Plan will achieve enactment only if combined in a second and final reconciliation bill for the fiscal year 2022 budget enactment cycle, in a process that will surely take months.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Domestic Politics, Tax Systems, Investment, and Deficit
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15571. Containing the Pandemic Public Debt
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic presented the entire world with its worst public health threat in at least a century. The precise seriousness of the pandemic, of course, could not be known at the outset; and in fact, the pandemic is not yet vanquished as this statement is written. The extent of the damage the virus and its mutations will ultimately cause is not yet fully known. But the near-miraculous efforts to develop vaccines, contain the infection, and treat the infected provide much-needed hope that a return to “normal” is not out of reach. The pandemic had economic consequences as well. And like the public health impact, the shock to the economy was large but impossible to assess accurately at its outset. And like the damage to public health, the economic fallout is still impossible to assess today with complete accuracy. For the first time in 100 years, stay-at-home orders to protect the public health spurred an economic downturn and dramatic job losses—leaving a wide swath of businesses in hospitality, travel, leisure, dining, and retail nearly shut down, with entire occupations, such as personal service workers, facing extended layoffs or even permanent job loss. The fates of these businesses and workers are unpredictable, depending on the uncertain course of the pandemic itself. Another similarity between the public health and the economic threats is that prudent public policy required strong and immediate responses. With the ultimate extent of the damage unknown but potentially catastrophic, executive and congressional policymakers deemed it essential that government react swiftly and robustly. Policymakers and commentators repeated often that the nation should err on the side of action—that it would be better to do too much rather than too little.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15572. Voting Rights Issue Briefs
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- Two-thirds of eligible voters participated in the 2020 election, which represented the highest turnout in a national election since 1900, before women had the right to vote. More than 159 million Americans voted, the largest total voter turnout in our history and the first time more than 140 million individuals participated in an election. Turnout rose among all racial and ethnic groups, and for the first time a majority of Americans under the age of 30 cast ballots. This historic level of participation is more remarkable given that the election took place in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Voting, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15573. Reimagining K-12: Emerging from Disruption with Insights for Reform
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- In March 2020, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, K-12 schools struggled to transition to remote learning. School districts across the country with differing budgets and technological infrastructure responded uniquely, achieving differing levels of success. The transition to remote learning during the pandemic exposed a deep digital and device divide, widened achievement gaps between students in low- and high-income households, and imposed a physical and emotional toll. Even prior to the pandemic, according to international assessments of student achievement, American children were performing below the OECD average in math, and performance gaps between low- and high-income students were widening faster in the US than in other countries, especially in reading. Pandemic-related school closures and remote learning mandates exacerbated existing inequities domestically. Remote learning has been widespread during the pandemic. Near the end of the 2020–2021 school year, 49 percent of households with children enrolled in public or private schools reported that children were still receiving at least some virtual or online instruction (Chart 2). (In some cases, this included on-campus students logging on to virtual lessons from inside their classrooms, despite their schools having reopened to physical learning.) Virtual instruction is down to about half from the nearly two-thirds of households who reported children moving to at least some online learning at the beginning of the school year.1 However, more than a year after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many children are still subject to the learning limitations of emergency remote learning models.
- Topic:
- Education, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15574. Global Supply Chains: Compete, Don’t Retreat
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- For decades, global supply chains have become increasingly integral to the US economy and have been embraced by business and successive US Administrations because they increase efficiency and US competitiveness. But over the past several years, criticism has grown beyond the argument that US jobs are being exported to include concern about a more hostile and competitive global landscape.1 Then the COVID-19 pandemic struck, and lockdowns were imposed. Production in general was disrupted, shutting down suppliers and interrupting transportation channels; foreign governments closed their borders or hoarded crucial supplies for their own peoples.2 Prominently, lifesaving supplies—including personal protective equipment (PPE) and pharmaceutical production commodities, often sourced from abroad—were in short supply, putting frontline health care workers at even greater risk and complicating vaccine distribution.3 And then, as the pandemic began to ease and demand for goods increased, the enormous container ship Ever Given was grounded in the Suez Canal for six days, bringing much of goods transport around the world to a grinding halt and raising fears of even greater supply chain bottlenecks and commercial chaos.4 This truly unprecedented turn of events has exposed challenges to US reliance on global supply chains. Critics of the “offshoring” of jobs have assigned much of the economic and even the human pain of the pandemic to unwise and excessive dependence on global supply chains that include countries with “command” economies rather than free-market ones, or hostile nations that are unreliable sources of essential goods. The pandemic has also raised national security concerns about the reliability and resiliency of global supply chains, and businesses have been forced into workarounds of their own practices. Given the size of China’s economy, its extensive role in global supply chains, its growing military strength, and the growing tensions in its bilateral US relationship, China is at the nexus of these major concerns about supply chain resilience. The new administration has responded to this turmoil with a series of policy directives,5 studies on the subject,6 and legislative proposals under active consideration in Congress covering both short-term and medium-term responses, including a twenty-first century industrial strategy—which would be a major change of US policy direction. Global trade in materials, tools, components, and services deserves an immediate assessment of both security and economic needs for the long term.7 Security with prosperity must be the goal, and the nation must fully comprehend the bigger picture to achieve that outcome. This brief will put the role of global supply chains in the US and the world economy in perspective. It will offer recommendations to manage the economic and security challenges of global supply chains in the postpandemic economy to ensure that the US remains an innovative and competitive global leader.
- Topic:
- Economy, Trade, Strategic Competition, COVID-19, Commerce, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
15575. New York City: Rebuilding a Future-Focused Economy
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- Major shifts are expected in how New Yorkers work in the postpandemic economy—remotely or in the office. But the COVID-19 pandemic has also dramatically accelerated a shift in the sectoral landscape of New York City and the industries in which New Yorkers will work. Restoring the city’s economic dynamism and creating a postpandemic, locally prosperous, and globally competitive economy will hinge on leveraging the city’s growth sectors and ensuring that New Yorkers have the skills they need to rebuild a thriving, future-focused NYC economy. The city lost almost 900,000 jobs during the initial months of the pandemic and had recovered just over half of those jobs by June 2021. Many of these job losses are in sectors that had seen relative weakness prior to the pandemic, including the city’s historically important finance & insurance and real estate sectors. The recovery in NYC has so far been an unbalanced one, lagging behind other major US city centers. Much of NYC’s ongoing economic recovery has been concentrated in health care, life sciences, and the growing tech industry, sectors that were strengthening prior to the pandemic. Indeed, tech jobs were already driving much of the employment growth in NYC before the pandemic. And while office and residential buildings emptied out during the crisis, Big Tech companies—including Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google—have increasingly moved in, expanding their office and warehouse spaces and accelerating hiring.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Finance, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- New York, North America, and United States of America
15576. Initial Assessment of Early End to Unemployment Benefits: Questionable Impact
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many employers, following guidance or regulation from federal, state and local governments, were compelled to shut down their operations for extended periods of time, affecting millions of workers. Public policy leaders responded swiftly, in order to ease the dramatic shock to those workers and the economy as a whole with redesigned federally enhanced unemployment benefits. In March, the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act, extended a number of programs that were approved a year earlier to Spetember 6, 2021, including the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) lowered to a $300 supplement; Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) for the self-employed, gig workers, and others who were not eleigible for standard unemployment insurance; Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) for the long-term unemployed. The bill allowed states to opt out.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Unemployment, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15577. Annual Social Security and Medicare Trustees Report Reflects Worsening Economic Environment
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds are required by law to produce an annual report on April 1 of each year. It is by no means a shock that the report is late in any year; it happens often. This year, however, there is probably more of a justification that the report was released only yesterday, five months late. The economic and health care environments are perhaps as chaotic and uncertain as they have been in living memory.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health Care Policy, and Social Security
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15578. Legal Identity and Statelessness in Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Christoph Sperfeldt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Millions of people worldwide are stateless or do not have proof of their legal identity. As a result, they face daily obstacles from lack of access to a range of social, political, and economic rights. Around 40 percent of the identified stateless population live in the Asia Pacific region, with the majority of them residing in the countries of Southeast Asia. While some of these people are refugees or migrants, most belong to minorities living in the country where they were born. Their lack of proof of nationality or other forms of legal identity poses significant challenges to human rights, governance, and development. International conventions aim at improving their status, but have been poorly subscribed. Much of the work to solve the problems will have to be done at the national level, where interest is increasing. Since the forced mass exodus of Rohingya from Myanmar, many have reached the shores of Malaysia and Indonesia, driving home the implications of unresolved situations of statelessness.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Citizenship, Stateless Population, and Nationality
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia
15579. Hun Sen's Mistake? The Domestic Political Ramifications of His Chinese Shelter
- Author:
- Charles Dunst
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s close relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has led scholars and policymakers alike to suggest that Beijing’s backing will keep him in power. While Hun Sen himself seems to believe this to be true, his reliance on China is actually enflaming Cambodian discontent to such an extent that his planned patrimonial succession is at risk. Given the fragility of regimes mid-succession, Hun Sen’s Chinese shelter is augmenting the potential of his clan’s fall. Yet as Hun Sen faces increased domestic opposition, he will only further deepen ties with China in hopes of remaining in power, thereby creating a vicious cycle from which escaping will prove difficult.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Power Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia
15580. A Changing Climate and Its Implications for Health and Migration in the Pacific: Examples from the Marshall Islands
- Author:
- Laura Brewington, Kelli Kokame, and Nancy Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Climate change impacts--temperature and rainfall changes, extreme events, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification--are amplifying health risks in vulnerable populations throughout the Pacific Islands, and also influence their mobility. This nexus of climate change, health, and migration is evident in the experience of the Marshall Islands. The nation and its population are dispersed over almost two million square kilometers of ocean, with sizeable diasporas in the United States. Climate impacts in the Marshall Islands exacerbate ongoing health threats, such as limited drinking water supplies, inadequate nutrition, and poor infrastructure. The out-migration of Marshallese is largely motivated by health, economic, education, and environmental reasons; therefore, planning for migrant movements should include adaptation strategies that also reduce health risks. A better understanding of how health, mobility, and climate change interact will help shape policy responses and provide useable climate information for focused, timely interventions that maximize health and well-being among populations in motion.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Health, Migration, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific and Marshall Islands
15581. ASEAN Matters for America/America Matters for ASEAN
- Author:
- East-West Center
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- This project maps the trade, investment, employment, business, diplomacy, security, education, tourism, and people-to-people connections between the United States and the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at the national, state, and local levels. Part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, this publication, the one-page connections summaries for states, and the AsiaMattersforAmerica.org website are resources for understanding the robust and dynamic US-ASEAN relationship.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Agriculture, Diplomacy, Health, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
15582. Climate Change in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors
- Author:
- Zena Grecni, Eric M. Derrington, Robbie Greene, Wendy Miles, and Victoria Keener
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Hotter weather, stronger typhoons, coral reef death, and physical and mental health risks are among the major challenges detailed in a new report on climate change in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). Threatened resources include high-value coastal infrastructure and the millions of dollars that ocean ecosystems add to the CNMI economy annually, according to the report by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), a consortium of several government, NGO, and research entities. Climate Change in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors is one in a series of new PIRCA reports aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands and the Hawaiian archipelago. Authors from the CNMI Office of Planning and Development, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Office for Coastal Management, and the East-West Center—along with 50 technical contributors from local governments, NGOs, researchers, and community groups—collaboratively developed the CNMI PIRCA report. Climate change is expected to disrupt many aspects of life in the CNMI. Those who are already vulnerable—including children, the elderly, low-income families, and individuals with disabilities—are at greater risk from extreme weather and climate events. Climate Change in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors provides guidance for decision-makers seeking to better understand the implications of climate variability and change for CNMI and its communities. This assessment also identifies the additional information and research needed to support responses that enhance resilience and help CNMI to withstand the changes to come.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Government, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific and Northern Mariana Islands
15583. Climate Change in American Sāmoa: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors
- Author:
- Victoria Keener, Zena Grecni, Kelley Anderson Tagarino, Christopher Shuler, and Wendy Miles
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Human health risks, stronger cyclones, coral reef death, and coastal flooding are among the major challenges detailed in a new report on climate change in American Sāmoa. Threatened resources include high-value coastal infrastructure and the millions of dollars that ocean ecosystems add to American Sāmoa's economy annually, according to the report by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), a consortium of several government, NGO, and research entities. Climate Change in American Sāmoa: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors is one in a series of new PIRCA reports aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands and the Hawaiian archipelago. Authors from the University of Hawai‘i and the East-West Center—along with 25 technical contributors from local governments, NGOs, researchers, and community groups—collaboratively developed the American Sāmoa report. Climate change is expected to disrupt many aspects of life in American Sāmoa. Those who are already vulnerable—including children, the elderly, low-income families, and individuals with disabilities—are at greater risk from extreme weather and climate events. Climate Change in American Sāmoa: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors provides guidance for decision-makers seeking to better understand the implications of climate variability and change for American Sāmoa and its communities. This assessment also identifies the additional information and research needed to support responses that enhance resilience and help American Sāmoa to withstand the changes to come.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific and American Samoa
15584. Timor‐Leste’s ASEAN Membership Prospects in a Time of Geopolitical Ambiguity
- Author:
- Hannah Foreman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Timor-Leste is a small democratic country in an increasingly strategic region. Since gaining independence in 2002, Timor-Leste has made remarkable progress as Asia’s youngest democracy, but it has a long way to go in improving its economic and political situation. ASEAN membership for the Timorese is viewed as a way to reconcile economic, security, and geopolitical interests, while carving out a regional identity. Timor-Leste’s push for ASEAN membership started in 2011 and intensified during the latter half of 2019 when Foreign Minister Dionisio Babo Soares visited all ten ASEAN capitals in the summer followed by ASEAN fact finding missions in Dili in the fall. While Timor-Leste’s response to COVID-19 is impressive, the economic toll continues to be severe. Therefore, ASEAN membership is a comparatively lower priority this year, but is still under consideration by members, based on Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc’s speech during the recent ASEAN Summit.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Democracy, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Timor-Leste and Asia-Pacific
15585. Partisan Biases in U.S.‐Japan Relations
- Author:
- Paul Nadeau
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Japan will welcome the Biden administration with relief in the wake of what was perceived as Trump’s bombast, threats, and unpredictability – but it will be mixed with apprehension (fair or not) that Biden’s presidency will follow the Obama administration’s perceived weakness, or even accommodation, toward China. It’s a crude simplification, but Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s relationship with U.S. political parties is roughly that they share preferences but not perceptions with Democrats, and share perceptions but not preferences with Republicans. In practical terms, this means that Japanese decision makers favor alliances and multilateral approaches over unilateralism and brinksmanship, but are more suspicious of China’s intentions and behavior than they believe Democrats to be. Put more indelicately, the LDP prefers working with Republicans rather than Democrats. This is combined with a traditional perception that Democrats undervalue Japan as a partner. Taken as a whole, this means that the incoming administration may have to do more to convince Japan that its priorities are being taken seriously – but will find in Japan an essential partner for advancing U.S. goals in the Indo-Pacific.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
15586. Biden Must Assist Japan and South Korea with the History Issue
- Author:
- Tom Le
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration’s focus on allies and partners and the inability of democratic U.S. allies Japan and South Korea to move beyond historical pitfalls of apologies and treaties provides President Biden’s team the perfect opportunity to show leadership by taking on a mediator role. By taking an active role, the United States can demonstrate that it is not a passive observer to would-be revisionists in the region, shore up its alliances, and signal to the world that the United States is still the leader in the promotion of human rights. Japan’s colonization of Korea from 1910 to 1945 was brutal. The Japanese military coerced between 10,000 and 200,000 women into sexual slavery and many more Koreans were forced to work in the Japanese war machine, the very one that annexed Korea in 1910. Following the abrupt end of Japanese colonization after World War II, brought about by the only direct use of nuclear bombs on a human population in history, Japan quickly signed treaties and paid reparations to former colonies, recovered its economy, and successfully rehabilitated its image with much of the world. However, it was not until 1965 that Japan-South Korea relations were “normalized.” The new Japan-South Korea relationship included abandoning reconciliation with North Korea altogether, and Tokyo providing grants to an authoritarian South Korean leader who was later assassinated and remains a divisive figure in contemporary Korean domestic politics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, History, Alliance, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
15587. Recognition, Non-recognition, and Misrecognition of Minority Communities. What Lessons Can Be Drawn from a Comparison between European and Central Asian Approaches?
- Author:
- Sergiusz Bober and Aziz Berdiqulov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- This Research Paper focuses on practices concerning recognition and non-recognition of minority communities in six European and Central Asian countries (Denmark, Germany, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Poland, and Tajikistan). Additionally, it also assesses the risk of misrecognition with regard to some of the minority communities resulting from these practices. The text is structured as a dual comparative analysis, first scrutinizing approaches to recognition within two macro-regions, and afterwards confronting them in order to identify similarities and discrepancies. This results in the identification of two “cultures” of recognition: a “strong” one in Europe and a “weak” one in Central Asia, with their characteristics originating mainly from differences concerning social, political, and legal contexts. At the same time, some features are shared by both macro-regions: hierarchization of minority communities, general limited access to minority rights, and sometimes a severe risk of misrecognition. Moreover, the paper argues in favour of formal mechanisms of recognition, a wider scope of application of minority rights (especially in Europe), as well as the strengthening of minority rights frameworks in Central Asia.
- Topic:
- Culture, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Community
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, and Asia
15588. A U.S.‐Japan Dual‐Citizen Arrangement Can Benefit Both Countries
- Author:
- Rei Kataoka Coleman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Although Japan does not recognize dual citizenship, the United States and Japan would both benefit from such an arrangement. A combination of on-the-ground realities of dual citizens in Japan, the emerging needs and capabilities of the Japanese state (namely digitalization of public services and taxation), and the interests of U.S.-based corporations operating in Japan should inspire the United States to encourage dual citizenship initiatives by the Japanese government. The driving forces of globalization and the benefits of exploring new avenues of U.S.-Japan relations combine with domestic developments in Japan to make dual citizenship a “common sense” goal for both countries, at both the institutional and person-to-person level of international diplomacy and mutual understanding. Just as foreign professionals proved indispensable to modernization in Japan’s Meiji Period (1868 - 1912), bi-national Americans currently on the ground in multinational corporations and other entities in Japan are playing a part in economic and cultural synergy, while contributing to a more well-informed U.S. stance on a number of important bilateral issues. Giving these agents of positive change the benefits of dual citizenship will make their lives in Japan easier and more fulfilling, while inviting more Americans with talent and knowledge to the grand project of mutual cooperation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Business, and Dual Citizenship
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
15589. Identity and Nation-Building in Ukraine: Reconciliation of Identities from a Conflict Prevention Perspective
- Author:
- Nina Henke
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- In less than 20 years after gaining its independence from the Soviet Union, Ukraine has faced several events, which have shaped the process of nation-building. The Euromaidan, the annexation of Crimea and the armed conflict with Russia have intensified the ‘us–them’ line of self-identification of the “Ukrainians” versus the “Others”. Ongoing “Ukrainisation” is spreading insecurity among minority groups and endangers possibilities to establish a cohesive Ukrainian society with a shared sense of belonging. In the context of a multicultural Ukrainian space and the international commitments of the State to protect and promote rights of its national, ethnic, religious and linguistic minorities, adopting an ethnocentric approach to the nation-building of the country is a conflict-prone factor. By examining and discussing identities in the perspective of the ongoing nation-building process in Ukraine, this research paper aims to identify the potential of the State and individuals to find mechanisms and grounds for reconciliation and integration. This is approached through a series of in-depth interviews and a complex analysis of current political guidelines on education, language and decommunisation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Nationalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, State Building, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
15590. Increasing Support for U.S.‐Japan Alliance in Okinawa is Not a Pipedream
- Author:
- Hillary C. Dauer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The ongoing political impasse between Japan’s central government in Tokyo and the Okinawa prefectural government over U.S. military basing threatens the long-term stability of the U.S.-Japan Alliance. In spite of the friction between the central government and the prefecture, and the much decried “burden” of U.S. bases on Okinawa there is relatively little deep-seeded resentment among the Okinawan people toward the U.S. military presence or the U.S.-Japan Alliance as a whole, especially among those born after the reversion of Okinawa to Japanese sovereignty in 1972. Surveys also show that Okinawans desire more dialogue with U.S. service members based in Okinawa. But a fraught Okinawan history with mainland Japan and economic marginalization have so far undermined the strong potential for good-faith dialogue that could break the impasse. The relocation of U.S. military bases is essential to the U.S. and Japanese governments’ security policy vis-à-vis emerging threats in the region. Both governments realized in the 1990s that Okinawa could not remain a key power projection node in the Western Pacific if the bases remained a flashpoint of political controversy due to their proximity to densely populated communities. This potentially volatile situation was brought under intense scrutiny with the 1995 rape committed by three U.S. service members against an Okinawan junior high school student and the resulting agreement to close the Marine Corps Air Station at Futenma. Moreover, the construction of the Futenma Replacement Facility also factors into subsequent U.S. Pacific maritime realignment strategy. Further delays could leave Japan less secure and impair U.S. attempts to counter growing Chinese assertiveness in the East and South China Seas.
- Topic:
- Politics, Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
15591. Conceptual Disputes over the Notions of Nation and National Minority in the Western Balkan Countries
- Author:
- Ljubica Djordjevic
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- The paper analyses the texts of the constitutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia as a basis for exploring how these states deal with the (ethnic) diversity and balance between civic and ethnic concepts of nation. The four countries offer an interesting spectrum of different approaches, caused by different social contexts: the main feature of the approach in Bosnia and Herzegovina is the category of “constituent peoples”; Montenegro has opted for a civic concept; North Macedonia tries to balance between multiculturalism and a binational state; and Serbia juggles the concept of the nation-state combined with comprehensive protection for national minorities. The analysis shows that the constitutions struggle to various degrees with the balance between the civic (political) concept of a (supra-ethnic) nation and the ethnic (cultural) concept of nation(s), and, in essence, fail to contribute to interethnic interaction and wider social cohesion. Although it is clear that the recognition of specific group identities and accommodation of (minority) rights is essential for pursuing peace, stability, diversity and genuine equality in each of the four analysed countries, it is also evident that imbalance favouring the ethnic concept of nation and failure to establish stronger institutional links of common citizenship, inevitably leads to parallel (one could even argue “segregated”) societies where different groups simply live next to each other but do not genuinely interact, which is detrimental to social cohesion and social stability and prosperity in the long run.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, Community, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
15592. The United States and Japan Should Cooperate to Include India in Indo‐Pacific Economic Governance
- Author:
- Kensuke Yanagida
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Both the United States and Japan consider India as an important strategic partner in their respective Indo-Pacific concepts. However, India still faces many domestic challenges as a developing country. India also has traditionally been reluctant when it comes to trade liberalization. U.S. bilateral trade negotiations with India, and Japan`s effort in promoting an East Asia regional trade agreement that includes India share objectives and interests and hence can be coordinated. On November 15, 2020, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed by 15 countries with the glaring exception of India. RCEP is a regional free trade agreement (FTA) whose negotiations were initiated by ASEAN and six partner countries, namely Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India in 2012. The signing of RCEP finally came after eight years of negotiations, but India decided to pull out from the pact at the final stage of negotiations. The Japanese and U.S. Indo-Pacific concepts aim to achieve regional peace, stability, and prosperity through ensuring a rules-based international order, and to enhance cooperation among like-minded countries in both economic and security spheres. RCEP can be positioned as an important economic partnership initiative that embodies the Indo-Pacific concepts of rules-based, free and fair trade and investment governance, and contributing to the economic prosperity of the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Japan, India, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
15593. Japan Can Remain an Important U.S. Ally Despite Demographic Challenges
- Author:
- Mina Pollman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The world is aging. Some countries are not only aging, but their populations are shrinking as immigration fails to make up for rapidly falling birth rates. Many U.S. allies and security partners are among those beset by these trends. This raises questions about how decreasing fertility and increasing life expectancies will shape the future world order, and specifically the sustainability of U.S. alliances such as with Japan, whose aging and population decline will make it more difficult for the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) to compete for the best Japanese talent as the Japanese labor pool shrinks ever smaller, and Japanese tax dollars with which to hire military personnel grow ever scarcer. Unless SDF recruitment trends change dramatically, Japan’s ability to participate in both technology-intensive and manpower-heavy alliance missions will decline over time. The fulfillment of manpower-intensive missions requires, of course, manpower, while even the fulfillment of technology-intensive missions will be affected by the JSDF’s inability to recruit technologically proficient talent. Ensuring the JSDF meets quantity and quality targets is imperative, but will require more government spending. But an aging and shrinking population will reduce the size of the working age population that pay taxes and increases the size of the retired population that depends on the state’s benefits for the elderly. While this will affect the JSDF’s ability to fulfill both technology-intensive and manpower-heavy missions with the United States in the future, the alliance will remain relevant to U.S. security in the Indo-Pacific because of the value of U.S. bases in Japan which forms the core of the alliance.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Immigration, Alliance, and Aging
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and United States of America
15594. Navigating the Rift Between Micronesia and the Pacific Islands Forum
- Author:
- Richard Pruett
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- While the U.S. presidential election was garnering much of the world's attention, another acrimonious election was roiling the Pacific, causing the entire Micronesian bloc of nations to exit the region's leading policy-making body, the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF). This is an opportune time to re-think the PIF and possibly realign Pacific regional architecture in preparation for future challenges. The Republic of Palau left the Forum on February 5, followed three days later by the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Republic of Kiribati, Republic of Nauru, and Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). That all five countries chose to leave the PIF was an act of remarkable Micronesian solidarity. The immediate reason for their departure was the February 4 election of a non-Micronesian as the PIF's new secretary-general. Until now, leadership had cycled among the three major racial and cultural groups in the Pacific – i.e., Melanesian, Micronesian, and Polynesian. The Micronesian countries felt snubbed when the leadership was passed over them to a Polynesian, instead. In fact, a Micronesian has held the leadership of the PIF only once in its 50-year history. The Forum’s 2009-2014 suspension of Fiji fractured regional institutions along Melanesian lines. This latest failure to achieve consensus — the “Pacific Way” — has led to its complete rupture, North-South, along the Micronesia cultural fault line.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Leadership, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific, United States of America, Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia
15595. The U.S.‐Japan Relationship: Modeling New Frontiers in Subnational Diplomacy
- Author:
- Sarah Sieloff and Sean Connell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In our increasingly networked world, the international activities of states, cities, and other subnational actors are expanding rapidly. Their rising importance has spurred Congress to consider legislation establishing an Office of Subnational Diplomacy within the U.S. State Department that would institutionalize and support these initiatives, while better aligning them with national diplomatic strategies. Moreover, they offer opportunities for envisioning new foreign policy approaches that directly benefit U.S. communities. The U.S.-Japan relationship — with its robust history of subnational interaction, strategic global interests and increasingly integrated economies — offers a fertile environment for developing and implementing new models for subnational diplomacy, with global applicability. While state and local governments cannot commit the federal government to action, they can conduct activities that advance both local and national interests. This is evidenced by an ever-expanding range of trade and business missions, and cultural and educational exchanges that bridge subnational actors with international partners. Increasingly, these activities are evolving into new areas, including technology-driven entrepreneurship, environmental quality and disaster resilience. At their best, subnational initiatives—which national leaders have cited as critical to U.S. foreign relations—create meaningful, long-term relationships amid often-changing national-level politics and officials. By stimulating information exchange, training and research opportunities, and business connections, they deliver concrete benefits to participants on both sides of the Pacific, especially in areas where national governments are not best positioned to engage.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
15596. COVID‐19 Crisis Response Offers Insight into Evolving U.S.‐Cambodia Relations
- Author:
- Peter Valente and Matthew Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Last year’s MS Westerdam cruise ship fiasco - in which 1,455 passengers and 802 crew were turned away from five different ports before being welcomed by Cambodia - raised many questions regarding how governments and the international community can improve their responses to global health crises. It also offers a window into the Cambodian government’s response to a global health crisis in the context of an important bilateral relationship — U.S.-Cambodia relations. Shortly after 700 new passengers boarded the Westerdam in Hong Kong on February 1 the cruise ship found itself stranded in the Indian and Pacific oceans ping-ponging between Japan, Guam, the Philippines, and Thailand until February 13, when Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen allowed the Westerdam to dock in Sihanoukville, Cambodia. The incident serves as an interesting window into how domestic regime security considerations combined with mixed motives in international relations influenced Cambodian decision making. One of the more bizarre facets of the Westerdam’s story was the in-person, relatively unprotected meet-and-greet between the Westerdam’s passengers and the Cambodian prime minister immediately after docking and amidst a global health crisis over the highly contagious COVID-19 virus. There has been much speculation by the media on the motivations of Cambodia’s decision and the prime minister’s personal welcome. Some of the various theories appearing in Western media include: diplomatic motives toward home countries of the passengers and crew (particularly the United States), Chinese political influence causing Cambodia to play down the dangers of COVID, or some combination of domestic and international politics.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Cambodia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
15597. Forging a Bay of Bengal Community is the Need of the Hour
- Author:
- Sabyasashi Dutta
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The Bay of Bengal, the world’s largest Bay, is strategically located in the Indian Ocean. On its western rim, lies the coastline of the Indian Peninsula and to its south, the island nation of Sri Lanka. To the east the bay connects key parts of Southeast Asia including Myanmar, Indonesia, Thailand as well as the Andaman Sea and the Malacca straits. At its very northern cusp lies Bangladesh, which is also the delta of the great rivers of Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna. These rivers connect the Bay in a unique “mountain to sea” ecosystem with natural connectivity to the Bay for the landlocked states of North Eastern India and the Himalayan nations of Nepal and Bhutan. In turn, the monsoon currents which regulate the climate of the Bay of Bengal gather moisture from the bay and dictate precipitation patterns in the mountains and plains in the hinterland. The hills of Meghalaya in North Eastern India record the highest rainfall in the world as they are first hit by the monsoon clouds that gather moisture from the Bay. An interlace of snow and rain fed rivers, their basins, and their estuaries at the Bay nurture a large diversity of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife flora and fauna (e.g., the Sunderban mangroves spanning parts of Myanmar, India and Bangladesh) and offer a great diversity of agricultural produce. The Bay and the countries along and connected by its littoral are a compact maritime sub region connected at the level of economy and ecology, having an enormous impact on the hundreds of its inhabitant who live on its coasts and in its hinterlands.
- Topic:
- Economy, Maritime, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar, Indian Ocean, Indo-Pacific, and Bay of Bengal
15598. The Importance of the Bay of Bengal as a Causeway between the Indian and Pacific Oceans
- Author:
- Tariq Karim
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The core Bay of Bengal countries today account for a population of almost 1.78 billion, while adjacent states with interest account for an additional 490 million. The “core states” (X, Y, Z) have a combined GDP of approximately $7.5 trillion, while adjacent states with interest add another $811 billion. While SAARC countries’ total intra-regional trade accounts for only 5% of their total global trade, ASEAN has a more respectable 25% intra trade while EU and North America boast 40-50%. One may reasonably imagine an economically and ecologically integrated Bay of Bengal community to increase SAARC’s current comparatively low figure, given their advantage in population, demography, and entrepreneurial vigor. The Bay of Bengal countries do not have a cohesive community identity, yet. If the Bay of Bengal littorals could evolve toward comprising a Bay of Bengal Community, replicating EEC and ASEAN, possibilities for prosperity for all the littorals would be almost limitless, while hitherto so-called land-locked entities (northeast Indian states, Bhutan, and Nepal) would get a much-needed outlet to the seas. However, the peoples of this region need to “rediscover each other”, revive memories of old civilizational, cultural, and commercial ties that had linked them historically in the past until the post-War new order rent them all asunder. They need to reinvent their regional identity, in a manner of speaking.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Economy, Trade, and Ecology
- Political Geography:
- Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, and Bay of Bengal
15599. Harnessing Inland Waterways for Inclusive Trade Among Bay of Bengal Countries
- Author:
- Veena Vidyadharan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The transboundary rivers Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna along with their tributaries and distributaries create a vibrant water grid connecting their riparian countries. Historically, these rivers have played a prominent role in shaping the economy of the Indian sub-continent as a major means of trade and transportation. In the post-colonial era, new political boundaries between countries mostly cut off these riverine networks because the priority of the newly-established countries and their governments was to develop road and rail networks for internal consolidation and integration more efficiently. Hence, waterways connectivity among new regional countries was comparatively neglected. India and Bangladesh, for example, share 54 transboundary rivers. Despite existing bilateral agreements for using designated riverine routes for trade and transit, only in the past few years have infrastructural development initiatives started in India for constructing river terminals, multimodal terminals as well as fairway development. And there are other opportunities.
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Regional Integration, and Ecology
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh, South Asia, India, Indo-Pacific, and Bay of Bengal
15600. Making BIMSTEC a Regional Vehicle for Nepal’s Economic Growth
- Author:
- Sunil KC
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Recently, the government of Nepal, led by Nepal Communist Party Chairman KP Sharma Oli who ascended to power in 2018, came up with an integrated foreign policy that reflects rapid changes in both the domestic and geopolitical spheres. The new foreign policy has shifted from a traditional course to a modern one with “Economic Diplomacy” as the main driver. With the slogan of “Happy Nepali, Prosperous Nepal”, Foreign Minister Pradeep Kumar Gyawali has prioritized engagement with regional groupings. It is in this context that the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation or (BIMSTEC), established in 1996, with a permanent secretariat in Dhaka, Bangladesh, could serve as an important platform in achieving Nepal’s foreign policy goals of development and prosperity. Nepal became a member of BIMSTEC in 2004.. BIMSTEC acts as a vital bridge for Nepal to connect with South and Southeast Asia to expand its trade, economy, business, investments, and cultural connections. However, due to an unstable domestic political environment, Nepal has not been utilizing regional forums in advancing the nation’s interest. Now, with a stable government in power, Nepal must look at regional forums as important gateways for conducting business and national development.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Geopolitics, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Nepal, and Southeast Asia