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15251. The Challenges Facing Brazil’s Left

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Brazil is living through a reactionary situation led by far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who relies on the social support and approval of the country’s ruling classes and Armed Forces. Meanwhile, the Brazilian left aims to regroup and recreate its social base as it tries to regain the political stewardship of the country. Through interviews with leaders of popular movements and parties in Brazil, dossier no. 40 analyses the challenges facing Brazil’s left in this difficult reality.
Topic:
Governance, Military Affairs, Far Right, and Leftist Politics
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

15252. Pity the Nation: Honduras Is Being Eaten from within and without

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Where does Honduras stand twelve years after the 2009 coup? In our dossier, jointly produced with People’s Dispatch and the Civic Council of Popular and Indigenous Organisations of Honduras (COPINH), we look at the coup against progressive leader and President Manuel Zelaya and the prolonged violence in the country in the years since by examining the assassination of Berta Cáceres, the forced disappearances of five members of the Garifuna community in July 2020, and the concerted attacks on trade unionism to understand the far-reaching impacts of the coup.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Coup, and Assassination
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, North America, and Honduras

15253. Uncovering the Crisis: Care Work in the Time of Coronavirus

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The pandemic uncovered a reality that has long been brewing in which inequalities, injustices, and asymmetries are violently embedded in the order of society. The crisis of wage-based society did not alter the unequal distribution of work, nor did it recognise it as an integral element of all lives – despite how feminisms have long politicised this discussion. This dossier focuses on three main areas around three main areas: communities, houses/homes, and domestic and care work.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Feminism, Pandemic, COVID-19, Domestic Work, and Caregivers
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15254. Dawn: Marxism and National Liberation

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Dossier no. 37 is an invitation to a dialogue, a conversation about the entangled tradition of Marxism and national liberation – a tradition that emerges out of the October Revolution and that deepens its roots in the anti-colonial conflicts of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This is an introduction to a wide-ranging conversation that includes many different revolutionary movements, mostly rooted in the continents of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
Topic:
Socialism/Marxism, Colonialism, Revolution, Liberalization, and Anti-Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America

15255. Twilight: The Erosion of US Control and the Multipolar Future

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
At the conclusion of World War II, with the European powers severely weakened, the United States – the most powerful of Europe’s settler colonies – took over the neo-colonial management of the planet. Now, almost eighty years later, the primacy of the United States has entered twilight. This dossier explores the emergence of a new cold war imposed by the United States on China and the forms of hybrid war that have been utilised against countries that it deems to be a threat.
Topic:
Imperialism, Hegemony, Conflict, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

15256. The Legacy of Lekra: Organising Revolutionary Culture in Indonesia

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
In 1965, the Indonesian revolutionary cultural organisation, Lekra, had 200,000 members and one and half million supporters. This was followed by a coup and the killing of one million communists in the months that followed. On the seventieth anniversary since its founding, this dossier traces Lekra’s history and calls on the artists and militants of today to combine individual creativity with the wisdom of the masses, from whose struggles for emancipation we seek hope and direction.
Topic:
Culture, Revolution, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia-Pacific

15257. Prospects for US-Russia Relations in the Context of the Biden-Putin Summit

Author:
Giorgio Bilanishvili
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Today, the main vector of Russia's foreign policy continues to go through a confrontation with the West in the international arena, especially with the United States. This fact is important for international politics and, even more so, for the context of Georgia's national security. As a whole, so far, the Biden administration's policy toward Russia is not different from that of its predecessors - the Trump administration and the Obama administration. Its main characteristics are poor bilateral relations and sanctions imposed on Russia, since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and launched a military intervention in eastern Ukraine. At the same time, the US expert community is inclined to say that balancing China's growing influence is a top foreign policy priority of the Biden administration and the realization of this policy could alter US foreign policy vis-à-vis Russia. The Biden-Putin summit held in Geneva on June 16 this year should be understood as a starting point of the US administration's relations with Moscow. Most probably, the parties have "tested the ground" on many different topics, including those where their positions differ the most. Although, this summit did not bring a drastic change between the two countries, which indeed was less expected, but it has relatively increased the dynamics of the relations between the two countries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America

15258. AUKUS - A Harbinger of a New Geopolitical Reality

Author:
Giorgi Badridze
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In September of this year, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the creation of a new defense pact in the Asia-Pacific region called AUKUS (which is an abbreviation for the names of the member states: Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States). This paper will discuss the objectives of this new tripartite pact as well as the rationale behind the reactions thereto vis-à-vis leading international players and how it reflects the current balance of power and security prospects in the world. Ongoing processes in the world today, including the creation of AUKUS, indicate that China's power and influence have grown so much that the more or less stabile world order may be radically altered if this is not balanced within the security sphere. The main task of the United States (the dominant power of the existing world order) and its allies is to prevent irreversible changes in world order; in particular, those that will accelerate the formation of Chinese hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Alliance, and AUKUS
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Australia, and United States of America

15259. The Platform of the 3+3 Format: A Review

Author:
Badri Belkania
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The aftermath of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, which in Ankara and Baku was hailed as a triumphant victory for the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance, significantly changed the political situation and the balance of power in the Caucasus region. The turn of the decades-long status quo in favor of Azerbaijan showed that a new phase has begun in the region, often pointed out so by the victorious side as well. 1 Against the backdrop of a significantly changed regional agenda and the growing Turkish-Azerbaijani influence in the Caucasus, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan introduced the idea of establishing a six-member regional cooperation platform. If the idea were to materialize, the members would include Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Georgia, and Armenia.2 Erdogan's idea received a wide response in the region. The new platform for regional cooperation (Russia, Iran, Turkey + Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) has become an important topic of discussion in all six countries, primarily due to its controversial format. The idea of geographically adjacent but politically different countries joining one platform is in direct conflict with the opposing interests of these countries. Despite this significant obstacle, the apologists for the idea, that seeks to replace the conflicts and tensions in the Caucasus with a "long-term peace," remain hopeful that the platform will have a future.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Political Geography:
Turkey and Azerbaijan

15260. Religious Aspects of the Iran-Azerbaijan Conflict: Is There a Danger of a New Hybrid War?

Author:
Aleksandre Kvakhadze
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have become unprecedentedly strained over the past month. Iranian military forces are mobilizing across the Iran-Azerbaijan border. At the same time, a new Turkish military contingent was deployed in Azerbaijan and joint military exercises were held in the territory of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.1 Officials from both countries were engaged in an unfriendly rhetoric. It is unlikely that this tension between Iran and the Turkey-Azerbaijan military alliance will escalate into an open, large-scale military confrontation, but, nevertheless, there is the opinion that the Iranian state will continue hybrid warfare in Azerbaijan through the support of political and religious groups in the medium and long term based on the examples of other countries.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Religion, Alliance, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Iran and Azerbaijan

15261. Iran-Azerbaijan Confrontation: Threats and Challenges

Author:
Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Iran-Azerbaijan relations have never been easy but they became particularly tense in September-October 2021, attracting attention within the region and beyond. This confrontation between the parties escalated into large-scale military exercises and a war of statements but, fortunately, the tension did not reach a level of military confrontation. In the second half of October, the confrontation slowly subsided. However, the problem has not disappeared. Its causes still exist and have a great potential of reigniting the conflict. Such a situation creates a fertile ground for a number of threats and challenges for the entire region, including Georgia.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

15262. The Interests of Turkey and Iran in Afghanistan: Threats and Challenges

Author:
Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In the summer of 2021, as the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, the balance of power in the country changed rapidly, and by August 15, the Taliban was able to capture the capital, Kabul, almost without a fight. On September 7, the Taliban formed a new "government" steered by Sharia Law. The Taliban also renamed the country, and, according to them, Afghanistan is now called the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan." There are no women or members of the Shiite minority in the new government. Of the 33 members of the still-incomplete government, only three belong to ethnic minorities.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Taliban, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey

15263. European defence: Specialisation by capability groups

Author:
Dick Zandee
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In many professions specialisation is regarded as a virtue. In a hospital the surgeon, the anaesthetist and the nurse have specialised skills. Together they engage in teamwork to cure patients. Yet, when it comes to defence, specialisation has a negative connotation. Contrary to the hospital’s operating theatre, dependency on each other’s armed forces is regarded as a serious, if not unacceptable risk, as a country has to be able to defend itself without relying on capabilities to be provided by other states. In reality, however, interdependence is a fact: European countries have relied on the nuclear deterrent of the United States since the 1950s and with regard to conventional forces, no single European country can provide all necessary capabilities. The question is how European interdependence can be made more effective. The answer must partly lie in specialisation. This Policy Brief addresses specialisation in security and defence from the perspective of the ‘Team Europe’ approach of distributing tasks and operating with varying coalitions of European countries in order to make the EU (and in this case also NATO) more effective. It presents a model of structuring European armed forces in specialised groups – an idea that has been proposed in a Clingendael report published earlier this year. First, the Policy Brief lays out the playing field by explaining the model of European capability groups. Next, several options for European capability groups will be proposed. It concludes with listing the implications for the Netherlands.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Specialization
Political Geography:
Europe

15264. The RRF as administrative subsidiarity

Author:
Adriaan Schout
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
When the corona crisis broke out, it was clear that eurozone economies were ill prepared for new setbacks. Put differently, the SGP had failed to produce convergence. The RRF offers an opportunity to reconsider the effectiveness of economic governance and to strengthen national ownership for sound economic policies. Despite its potential merits, the RRF was not designed to reinforce national institutions to monitor and correct their own economic policies. Creating the required ownership for sound economic policies would have demanded empowering the independent National Productivity Boards (NPBs) and Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs), and integrating them in a redesigned independent network-based European Fiscal Board (EFB). The failure in 2020 to include the NPBs, IFIs and the EFB also implies a major break with the Fiscal Compact, Two Pack and Six Pack that aimed at empowering national institutions. The RRF concerns a major financial commitment and could thus have been used as bargaining chip to strengthen the long-term reform measures by insisting on a subsidiarity-based European monitoring and enforcement system, including mutual inspections, and build around the nascent macroeconomic independent national and EU agencies. Such decentralized systems have proved their worth in successful European policy areas such as in monitoring the state of the environment in member states. This will have consequences for the organization of the EU Commission. Using the lessons from the RRF to (forget to) strengthen national institutions is also relevant for redesigning the SGP. Firstly, redesigning the NPBs, IFIs and EFB will offer a suitable model for monitoring national policies as a replacement of the current centralized control under the SGP by the Commission. Secondly, the future development of the RRF and NGEU can be used as bargaining chip in the negotiations on the SGP. The review of the SGP will involve adaptation of rules, reinstituting the ESM, and deciding on new emergency funds. The negotiations ahead offer opportunities and leverage for steering towards a pro-active and constructive role for the Netherlands in the elaboration of subsidiarity-based economic governance.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

15265. Military coup betrays Sudan’s revolution: Scenarios to regain the path towards full civilian rule

Author:
Anette Hoffman
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
On Monday 25 October 2021, Lieutenant-General Abdul-Fattah al-Burhan staged a military coup that stalled Sudan’s political transition towards civilian rule. With the government dissolved and a state of emergency declared, two years of painfully gained achievements towards democracy could be lost, the hopes of millions of peaceful protestors shattered, and an already fragile region further destabilised. The military takeover is a desperate attempt by the generals to protect the security elite’s economic interests and to abscond from justice. In response to the coup, millions of Sudanese mobilised to reject the coup and demand full civilian rule. Western governments and the EU have strongly condemned the coup and suspended economic support, while Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are believed to back it. Three outcomes from the current crisis are on the table: a) a full civilian transitional government; b) a return to the power-sharing agreement; or c) military dictatorship. To assist Sudan to regain its path towards democracy, Western governments must put all their weight behind the civilian demands and: i) streamline the ongoing mediation processes and ensure civil society is consulted; ii) bolster the legitimacy of Prime Minister Hamdok and his cabinet, iii) increase pressure on Sudan’s military junta and its backers; and iv) strengthen Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement. This brief presents three plausible scenarios for a way out of the crisis and concludes with considerations for policy makers to get Sudan back on track towards democratic rule.
Topic:
Coup, Revolution, Instability, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

15266. Covid-19 prompts the EU and the Netherlands to rethink global health

Author:
Louise Van Schaik and Remco van de Pas
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic prompted a strong re-engagement in global health. Because the pandemic coincided with geopolitical rifts between the US and China, but required a global response, the EU and its member states took responsibility to safeguard the World Health Organization (WHO) and initiated global arrangements for vaccine sharing for developing countries. Within the EU, mandates and global health functions have traditionally been underdeveloped and divided between the development and health sectors. For the Netherlands, this is perhaps the case to an even larger extent. Development funding has focused primarily on sexual and reproductive health and rights, and the health ministry has had limited interest and capacity on international health issues, with the exception of certain specific issues such as Anti-Microbial Resistance (AMR) and medicine prices. Spending on global health by both the EU and the Netherlands has been fragmented, with mainly ad hoc budgets being made available for the international pandemic response. This policy brief calls for a structural response and more coherent outlook on global health.
Topic:
Development, European Union, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

15267. Turning EU green energy diplomacy into reality

Author:
Louise Van Schaik, Akash Ramnath, and Giulia Cretti
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In Spring 2022, the European Commission will present its International Energy Engagement strategy, which will undoubtedly reflect that the European Green Deal nowadays tops the Brussels agenda. From being a traditional buyer of fossil fuels, the EU is adapting to become an exporter of green energy solutions and, to some degree, an importer of green energy. At a time when energy prices are historically high and EU climate policy is accelerating, this policy brief analyses what a more pro-active EU green energy diplomacy could look like. In light of this shift, a review is made of which instruments the EU could deploy to support green energy transitions and discourage third countries from continuing extraction and production of fossil fuels. It recommends the EU takes a firm stance on phasing out fossil fuel and enter dialogue with some of its current fossil fuel suppliers on the implications of its own transition. The EU will need to establish new partnerships on green energy provision, technology and critical raw materials needed for the transition.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Green Deal, European Commission, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

15268. ‘If you want to go far, go together’ Community engagement and infrastructure development in fragile settings

Author:
Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In fragile and conflict-affected settings (FCAS), infrastructure development is a sharp double-edged sword: it can foster sustainable and inclusive development, but it can also exacerbate fragility and conflict. This brief argues that a substantial engagement of local communities has the potential to improve the conflict sensitivity of infrastructure efforts in FCAS. To ensure that these efforts have a positive impact on fragility dynamics, however, due attention should also be paid to the specific choices made in terms of project design and implementation. The brief offers a set of pragmatic considerations aimed at supporting practitioners navigating such choices. In addition, to ensure a proper tailoring of project choices to the specific context, practitioners should also rely extensively on conflict sensitivity analyses, monitoring the interaction between the project and the context’s underlying drivers of fragility throughout the whole project cycle. While so far CDD projects have mostly focused on small-scale infrastructure, efforts should be devoted to explore whether and how CDD approaches can be applied to larger infrastructure projects.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Fragility
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15269. From indices to insight: A proposal to enhance the risk assessment of the Dutch Early Warning/Early Action process

Author:
Bob Deen, Adaja Stoetman, and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Over the course of the last three decades, countless scholars, diplomats and experts have sought to develop reliable ways to predict and prevent violent conflict and instability. These efforts have yielded a vast array of analytical instruments, ranging from indices that measure various proximate and structural causes of instability to forecasting models that estimate the probability of an outbreak of violent conflict. Predicting and preventing violent conflict and instability Presently, there is a great deal of data available ranging from better measures of political violence and better predictors of violence. Moreover, as data sciences advance, social scientists have been able to develop new models and refine their predictions. However, as such tools proliferate, so do the challenges for policymakers. First, more data does not always mean ‘better’ data. Key indicators such as on political inclusivity, local grievances and competition are often still not readily available. Second, more data and better methodologies have not always meant a better insight into conflict risks. While we have generally become better in predicting the continuation and intensity of ongoing conflict, it remains a major challenge to predict which countries will become unstable and when. Third, perhaps the biggest problem is that even when having a clear insight into conflict risks, converting these insights into actionable policies remains difficult. In these instances, it is often not a lack of information or insufficient early warning signals per se that pose the key obstacles, but rather the ability to convert these data points into policy-relevant analysis and to identify relevant entry points for preventive efforts.
Topic:
Political Violence, Conflict, Risk, and Instability
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

15270. Costing Conflict: An early warning method to assess the impact of political violence on vital security interests

Author:
Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Early Warning and Early Action (EWEA) processes seek to identify the risk of conflict, instability and violence. A large number of foresight models can predict which countries and areas may experience what type and what levels of violence. From this, they produce lists of countries and regions at risk which then qualify for policy measures to help improve stability. However, in order to prioritise countries and regions it is equally important to assess the implications (or the cost) of conflict. For example, Early Warning by the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM) seeks to “prevent tensions from escalating into conflict” and focus on all forms of tension accordingly. UNDP Early Warning seeks to understand how conflict impacts development initiatives and will prioritise countries with those problems. Mandates and interests thus determine priorities.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15271. Unpacking open strategic autonomy: From concept to practice

Author:
Luuk Molthof, Dick Zandee, and Giulia Cretti
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Amidst the weakening of the multilateral system, the rise of multipolarity, and the Covid-19 pandemic, the concept of European strategic autonomy (ESA) has gained considerable traction. In fact, according to European Council President Charles Michel, the strategic independence of Europe is ‘our new common project for this century’ and ‘goal number one for our generation’. Long seen as a French pipedream, and first applied in 2013 to Europe’s defence and security policy, the ambition of strategic autonomy is now backed by a growing number of member states and is increasingly applied to a broad range of policy areas, including industrial and trade policy.
Topic:
Multilateralism, Trade Policy, COVID-19, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe

15272. Warring partners: Exploiting the failed coup in the political transition in Sudan

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The failed coup attempt in Sudan expanded dispute between the partners in power, the military and the civilians, who both sought to use it to lead the transitional phase as per their own priorities.
Topic:
Politics, Coup, Civilians, Transition, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

15273. The Middle East: From a decade of conflict to an age of reconciliation

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Swift reconciliations initiated by regimes with the purpose of cutting their losses and shoring up their own sources of power are not enough to establish enduring stability and a genuinely cooperative regional order.
Topic:
Political stability, Conflict, Reconciliation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East

15274. The crisis of the Turkish lira: Toward economic collapse or a new economic model?

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
As with any economic or fiscal policy, Erdogan is taking a risk, betting that his vision can turn the Turkish economy around. The only problem is that with presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2023, he has just 18 months to prove the efficacy of his policies.
Topic:
Economy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fiscal Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

15275. Three Scenarios for Europe’s Conflict Landscape in 2030

Author:
Florence Schimmel
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
In September 2020, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) conducted an expert workshop on the future of conflict for Europe. Participants from across the continent were invited to develop forward-looking scenarios for crises impacting European security up until 2030.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

15276. The Role of Space as a Global Common Good for Critical Infrastructure and Industry

Author:
Christian Mölling, Florence Schimmel, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Space-related topics transcend the “basket” logic of the Strategic Compass (SC) as they touch on aspects of all issue areas. To break down this complex topic, the workshop was based on an input paper and focused on aspects of infrastructure, congestion, and competition. While discussions cannot and should not look exclusively at security and defense, participants were encouraged to spotlight initiatives relevant for the scope of the SC process.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Infrastructure, Space, and Industry
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15277. Promoting Technological Sovereignty and Innovation: Emerging and Disruptive Technologies

Author:
Christian Mölling and Florence Schimmel
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDT) transcend the four-basket logic of the EU Strategic Compass as they touch on aspects of all issue areas. To break down this complex topic, the workshop was based on two input papers that focused on aspects of sovereignty and innovation. While the discussion cannot and should not be held exclusively in relation to the security and defense realm, participants were encouraged to highlight initiatives relevant for the scope of the Strategic Compass process.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, European Union, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15278. Strategic Foresight and the EU Cyber Threat Landscape in 2025

Author:
Valentin Weber, Victoria Cygne, and Lara Toriser
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This report explores how the cyber threat environment of the European Union could develop in the next five years. It not only describes two plausible future scenarios for European policy-makers that are characterized by different levels of disruption, but also envisions strategies and mechanisms that the EU could deploy to overcome the various challenges that lie ahead.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Cybersecurity, and Digitization
Political Geography:
Europe

15279. Migration, Borders, and the EU’s Capacity to Act

Author:
Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This in-depth monitoring study assesses the EU’s capacity to handle migration. Why does the European Union respond so badly to migration crises? And why does it repeatedly allow itself to be blackmailed by neighboring states which extract concessions in return for holding back migrants? The ongoing situation at the EU’s border to Belarus is no isolated incident. It reveals vulnerabilities resulting directly from the way the EU regulates its borders and international migration. Over the past decade, a pattern has emerged: the more the EU tries to defend the Schengen Area, its passport-free travel zone, the more vulnerable it makes itself.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, and Borders
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

15280. The Digital Technology Environment and Europe’s Capacity to Act

Author:
Tyson Barker
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This monitoring study explores the EU’s capacity to act in digital technology across five categories: 1) how the EU defines the problem it is attempting to address; 2) how the EU sets an agenda; 3) how the EU formulates policy; 4) how the EU implements policy; and 5) to what degree European policy has an impact at home and globally. Ultimately, the EU’s policy success will be determined by its ability to shore up areas where it is weakest and establish constant and interactive benchmarking to create honest performance assessments. The EU must set out clearly defined objectives that confront the tough questions of “what is essential” and “what is nice to have.”
Topic:
Environment, Science and Technology, and Digitization
Political Geography:
Europe

15281. Women and Minors in Tertiary Prevention of Islamist Extremism

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Over the past years, the role of gender issues in addressing and preventing Islamist extremism has received increased attention. Since the fall of the ‘caliphate’ of the so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS), most of the returnees to Western European countries have been women who had joined ISIS and other Jihadist organizations. Many travelled with children who had been brought along on the initial journey or who were born abroad. Working with women and minors, especially returnees, has become one of the main challenges for actors in tertiary prevention of Islamist extremism.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Women, Islamic State, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Middle East

15282. Communicating in Tertiary ­Prevention of Islamist Extremism

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Tertiary prevention of (violent) Islamist extremism includes measures designed to encourage and support (violent) extremists in prison and in liberty in their efforts to leave their milieus, deradicalize, decriminalize, and reintegrate into society. Actors in tertiary prevention thus intervene in a multitude of contexts and work with various stakeholders. The growing understanding of the complexity of radicalization and deradicalization processes as well as practical experiences leave no doubt that multi-agency cooperation and communication is crucial to be able to reach most potential clients. However, one of the main challenges of professionals working in tertiary prevention is to identify potential points of contact, set up effective frameworks for sharing information, and establish long term relationships.
Topic:
Security, Communications, Violent Extremism, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Europe

15283. Towards More Effective Deradicalization: Urgent Recommendations for Addressing Violent Islamist Extremism

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Violent Islamist extremism is still one of the biggest threats to internal security as well as societal cohesion in the EU. As a crucial part of any comprehensive counterstrategy, tertiary prevention encompasses measures designed to encourage and support (violent) extremists in prison and in society to leave their milieus, deradicalize, decriminalize, and reintegrate into society.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, European Union, Islamism, and Deradicalization
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

15284. Building European Resilience and Capacity to Act: Lessons for 2030

Author:
Roderick Parkes, Anna-Lena Kirch, and Serafine Dinkel
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Containing twelve scenarios for the world in 2030, this report offers insights into how the EU can maintain and build up its capacity to act in the face of the major disruptive changes that are likely to come over this decade. It is being released in the run-up to German elections in September 2021 that will serve as a kind of referendum on ten years of government-heavy crisis management.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Science and Technology, Elections, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

15285. China’s Nuclear Arms Race: How Beijing Is Challenging US Dominance in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Elisabeth Suh and Leonie Reicheneder
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
China is building up its military capabilities. Not only is the country investing heavily in conventional arms, but it is also modernizing its nuclear weapons. To secure its nuclear deterrent, China is diversifying its delivery systems. The United States sees this as a challenge to its military superiority in the Indo-Pacific region. Washington and Beijing are both fueling a qualitative arms race by investing in new capabilities. This spiral poses risks to stability that affect Germany and Europe as well.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, and Military
Political Geography:
China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

15286. New Caledonia Prepares for Third and Final Referendum on Independence from France

Author:
Ashley Westerman
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Ashley Westerman, Freelance Journalist and Producer, explains that a turnover in government, along with changing demographics, are what analysts believe could edge New Caledonia towards voting for independence in the December 12 referendum.
Topic:
Demographics, Sovereignty, Independence, and Referendum
Political Geography:
France, Asia-Pacific, and New Caledonia

15287. Sustainable Infrastructure Offers Opportunities for U.S. – Thai Cooperation

Author:
Courtney Weatherby
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Courtney Weatherby, Deputy Director and Research Analyst for the Southeast Asia and Energy, Water, & Sustainability programs at the Stimson Center, explains that “Thailand’s forward-looking focus on climate resilience provides ample opportunities for bilateral collaboration with the United States.”
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

15288. Revitalize the Thai-U.S. Alliance by Tackling 21st Century Challenges: Let’s Start by Working Together to Address Marine Plastic Debris

Author:
Piper Anne Wind Campbell
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Ambassador (retired) Piper Anne Wind Campbell, Adjunct Professorial Lecturer at American University and former Chargé US Mission to ASEAN, explains that “In both countries, it seems, our younger populations are not aware of interesting joint initiatives that could inspire a greater sense of collaboration and alliance. The solution is to go beyond a defense emphasis and to revitalize the Thai-US alliance by tackling 21st century challenges.”
Topic:
Alliance, Youth, Pollution, and Plastic
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

15289. How to Move the Thailand-U.S. Strategic Alliance Forward

Author:
Darmp Sukontasap
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Darmp Sukontasap, Director, Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies, Rangsit University, Thailand, explains that “gone are the days when an alliance is viewed exclusively from the security and military perspective. The geopolitical realities of the 21st century require alliances to encompass agendas which are non-military, non-political and non-confrontational.”
Topic:
Geopolitics, Alliance, Strategic Interests, and Military
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

15290. The Prospects of Thailand-U.S. Economic Cooperation

Author:
Kaewkamol Karen Pitakdumrongkit
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) of Nanyang Technological University, Singapore., explains that “data runs contrary to the perception that Bangkok is leaning towards Beijing… Thailand embraces American economic clout while dreading its Chinese counterpart.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

15291. Can U.S. Assistance Reinvigorate the U.S.-Thai Alliance?

Author:
Thomas Parks
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Thomas Parks, The Asia Foundation, explains that “US-Thai relations matter now more than ever. Since 2018, the United States has been expanding security cooperation with Thailand, after the historic lows of the post-2014 coup years.”
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Alliance
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

15292. Thai-U.S. Bilateral Relations: Benefits and Challenges

Author:
Arunrat Chumroentaweesup
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Arunrat Chumroentaweesup, Consulting Manager at Tractus Asia, explains that “American firms enjoy two significant benefits. First, US entities are permitted to maintain a majority shareholding or to wholly own a company, branch office or representative office located in Thailand. Second, US companies are permitted to engage in business on almost the same footing as Thai firms and are exempted from most of the foreign investment restrictions imposed by the Foreign Business Act.”
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Business
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

15293. U.S.-Thai Economic Prospects–Turning A New Page

Author:
Judy A. Benn
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Judy A. Benn, Former Executive Director American Chamber of Commerce in Thailand, explains that “for Thailand to take full advantage of post-pandemic opportunities and reignite its economy to make-up for the last 18 months, the nation will need to capitalize on its centralized geographic location and position as one of Southeast Asia’s strongest manufacturing bases.”
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, and Economy
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

15294. Old Ally, New Direction: Cobra Gold and Beyond

Author:
Kitti Prasirtsuk
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Kitti Prasirtsuk, Ph.D., a Professor of International Relations at Thammasat University, explains that despite strained U.S.-Thai relations over the past decade, the Cobra Gold (CG) military exercise “equates to a win for both sides” and “is the cornerstone of the US-Thailand alliance, representing a major bond between the two nations in their post-Vietnam War relations.” As President Biden is strengthening alliance cooperation, the administration will likely revisit the U.S.-Thailand alliance. However, it is important to consider how the context for the alliance has changed.
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, and Alliance
Political Geography:
North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

15295. Learning from Tumultuous Times: An Analysis of Vulnerable Sectors in International Trade in the Context of the Corona Health Crisis

Author:
Oliver Reiter and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic marks an unprecedented shock to global growth and trade and brought international dependencies into the spotlight. This triggered discussions on resilience and robustness of global value chains. In this paper we assess which products can be considered as vulnerable to trade shocks at the global level – referred to as ‘risky’ products – by constructing a ‘product riskiness indicator’ for 4700 globally traded products based on components such as market concentration, clustering tendencies, network centrality of players, or international substitutability. In a second step the bilateral imports of risky products are matched to multi-country input-output tables enabling the analysis of the importance of internationally sourced risky products by country and using industries. Higher-tech industries are more prone to supply-chain vulnerability given the large share of risky products in high-tech product categories. Third, we apply a ‘partial global extraction method’ to assess the GDP impact of reshoring. Assuming that imports of risky products are re-shored from non-EU27 to EU27 countries suggests an increase in the EU27 GDP of up to 0.5%. The non-EU27 countries lose from such re-shoring activities accordingly. This suggests that it is also in the interest of the supplier countries and industries to assure robust or at least resilient supply chains. Finally, selected policy aspects in the context of the envisaged EU Open Strategic Autonomy are debated.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Economic Growth, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

15296. To Grow or Not to Grow: Belarus and Lithuania

Author:
Thorvaldur Gylfason and Eduard Hochreiter
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We compare the economic growth performance of Belarus and Lithuania since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Our interest in this country pair is driven by the two countries´ interwoven histories as well as by the fact that Belarus remains autocratic and strongly tied to Russia, while Lithuania has reinvented itself as a democratic market economy fully integrated into the EU. Our aim is to better understand the extent to which the growth differential between the two countries can be traced to increased efficiency, i.e., total factor productivity, in the use of capital and other resources via, inter alia, better institutions (intensive growth) as opposed to sheer accumulation of capital (extensive growth), the hallmark of Soviet economic growth. To this end, we compare the development of some key determinants of growth in the two countries since the 1990s. A simple growth accounting model suggests that advances in education at all levels, good governance, and institutional reforms have played a more significant role in raising economic output and efficiency in Lithuania than in Belarus, which remains marred by problems related to weak governance as well as autocratic rule. Further, as in Estonia and Latvia, the EU perspective has made a significant contribution to growth in Lithuania. The Russian connection has done less for Belarus. Finally, we touch upon the impact of the corona virus on the economies of the two countries.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, Post-Soviet Space, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Lithuania, and Belarus

15297. Production and Trade of ICT from an EU Perspective

Author:
Amat Adarov, Dimitrios Exadaktylos, Mahdi Ghodsi, Robert Stehrer, and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The competitiveness of industries and countries is shaped more and more by technological advancement in the production and use of information and communications technology (ICT). This report considers the supply side of ICT goods and services. It studies the drivers of ICT production location and trade across countries with a focus on the relative position of the EU. The analyses clearly indicate that the EU must step up its efforts to accelerate the shift towards digital production and strengthening the ICT sector that produces the required technologies and services. In addition, from a trade policy perspective, a harmonised set of standards and regulatory framework is to be aimed at to minimise mismatches in technical specifications and requirements. This will lead to the diffusion of positive externalities and should allow for a smooth operation of the global value chains in these products.
Topic:
Communications, European Union, Trade, Information Technology, Digitalization, and Production
Political Geography:
Europe

15298. EU Employment Dynamics: The Pandemic Years and Beyond

Author:
Stefan Jestl and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The economic shock induced by the pandemic has plunged European economies into a recession. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have affected economic life in a substantial way, with industries and population groups facing varying difficulties. This study explores potential future employment dynamics across European industries and employment groups for the period up to 2026 by drawing on past sectoral trends and the latest macroeconomic forecast results from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission. A scenario analysis is also carried out, taking into account the great uncertainty and risks that are related to the baseline forecasts.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe

15299. Economic Sentiment Indicators and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from European Union Countries

Author:
Andrzej Cieślik and Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper studies the role of business sentiment in the decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) to undertake foreign direct investment (FDI) across European Union (EU) member states. Based on the knowledge-capital model, the study employs the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator and panel data to examine empirically the determinants of FDI across EU member states during the period 2003-2017. The empirical evidence suggests that better economic sentiment in an EU Member State induces MNEs to undertake FDI in that country, while worse economic sentiment in an EU member state motivates an MNE in that country to invest abroad.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Business, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Europe

15300. Interactions Between Global Value Chains and Foreign Direct Investment: A Network Approach

Author:
Amat Adarov
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The world economy is increasingly shaped by cross-border production and investment activity. The paper uses complex network analysis along with panel data econometric techniques to study the structure and interactions between the networks of global value chains (GVC) and foreign direct investment (FDI). The analysis reveals that both FDI and GVC networks have a distinct core-periphery structure dominated by a relatively small number of countries with the USA constituting the global hub interlinked with regional European and Asian clusters, which, in turn, are centered around regional hub countries like China and Germany. Simultaneous equation model regressions using three-stage least squares suggest that FDI centrality facilitates GVC centrality of countries. However, FDI centrality is driven to a large extent by the FDI statutory restrictions and tax offshore regulations, rather than GVC connectivity.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Borders, Networks, Macroeconomics, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus