Publication Year: within 5 Years - CIAO Search Results

14401. Europe’s Strategic Compass: Merits and Shortcomings

Author:: Riccardo Perissich
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Europe’s “Strategic Compass” proposes a number of initiatives to enable the EU to act in the security and defence domain and confront the many challenges impacting European interests. The document, prepared by the European External Action Service (EEAS) under the responsibility of Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative and Vice President of the Commission, will be debated by defence and foreign ministers over the next few months and subsequently adopted as an official strategy statement sometime during the French Presidency of the European Council next year.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Politics, Military Affairs, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

14402. The Italy–France Treaty is an Example of Wise Diplomacy

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The recently concluded Treaty on Enhanced Cooperation between France and Italy[1] has created some interest in Europe. Dubbed the “Quirinale Treaty” after the sumptuous residential palace of the Italian president of the Republic where the signing ceremony was held, the agreement is indeed a significant development. It could preside over an expansion and deepening of the bilateral relationship, lead to a degree of rebalancing in Europe’s power relations and usher in a new era of greater coordination between Paris and Rome in EU negotiating formats. These three elements – the bilateral dimension, Europe’s balance of power and EU policymaking processes – make up the rationale of the treaty and are consequently worth analysing separately.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, France, and Italy

14403. If you Can't Beat Them, Join Them: Should States Embrace Bitcoin?

Author:: Jesse Colzani
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Bitcoin – the most secure and well-established technology to store value[1] – was created in 2008 to challenge the state’s centralised monopoly on money. It is a digital currency worth 1 trillion US dollars that knows no boundaries and is not controlled by any central authority. Although it is considered a threat to the established order, countries and institutional actors are gradually realising Bitcoin can also be a tool to advance their economic and geopolitical interests. Today, governments find themselves in the difficult position of having to decide whether Bitcoin should be integrated into their economies and governance structures or if they should continue to oppose, block or seek to co-opt the digital currency. But to understand Bitcoin and make an informed decision, one has to first appreciate the different components of its ecosystem.
Topic:: Political Economy, Governance, Currency, Digital Policy, and Bitcoin
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14404. The Impact of COVID-19 on Croatia’s Euro Adoption Strategy

Author:: Kristijan Kotarski
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: Is the euro a golden goose laying golden eggs? Well, certainly not, if one asks an average Greek or Italian whose countries have consistently faced lower GDP per capita levels than the level they last recorded back in 2008. On the of them introduced the common European currency in 2007 and 2009. Not only are their countries more prosperous, but the euro also enjoys high social support. The aforementioned and diametrically opposite experiences show that the euro is at times, and especially during economic downturns, an issue which arouses other hand, is the euro a stinging viper? Surely not, if one poses this question to an average Slovene or Slovak whose countries boast rapid economic catch-up with the EU’s average level of economic development, especially since bothof them introduced the common European currency in 2007 and 2009. Not only are their countries more prosperous, but the euro also enjoys high social support. The aforementioned and diametrically opposite experiences show that the euro is at times, and especially during economic downturns, an issue which arouses many controversies.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Adoption
Political Geography:: Europe and Croatia

14405. EU and Russia: From a Partnership to a Rivalry

Author:: Jelena Jurisic
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: At the beginning of the 20th century Halford Mackinder was the first to write about a possibility of integrating Europe and Russia in his famous essay “Geographical Pivot of History.” The latter, on his map of natural crossroads of power, constituted the biggest portion of the “Pivot Area”, later dubbed “the Heartland”, while the former constituted the western part of the “Inner or Marginal Crescent.” Mckinder perceived that an alliance of Europe, as homeland of progress, and Russia, which throughout history influenced Europe by the vastness of its territory, could form the biggest center of power that would span between two oceans and dominate the world. A version of this continental connection was presented some 20 years later by Karl Haushofer who in the alliance of Germany, the Soviet Union and Japan saw a geopolitical force which could crush the domination of the Anglo-Saxon civilization. The next to grasp to the ideal of “Greater Europe” in the fifties was Charles de Gaulle who made a statement about a “Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals.” With the political rapprochement of France and West Germany with the Warsaw Pact led by the USSR he wanted to distance the two for NATO and the dominance of the United States. In the late eighties is was Mikhail Gorbachev who spoke about The “Common European Home” as an ultimate goal of the process of integration, be it in the west as well as in the east of the old continent, in order to end their military and political confrontation through integration. Notwithstanding, with his appeasing foreign policy and wrong steps he achieved the opposite. With the disappearance of ideological chains between Russia and the West the idea of “Greater Europe’’ also ceased to exist. Moscow embarked on the process of democratization, and with it of rapprochement with the US and the EU, and in 1994 the EU–Russia partnership and cooperation agreement was signed. Four years later Boris Yeltsin hosted an informal summit with Helmut Kohl and Jacques Chirac, which resulted in creation of Paris-Berlin- Moscow axis. This axis lasted for just a few minutes as during the press conference the Russian president stated that Russia cannot become a member of the EU and NATO. Pale facial expirations of his guest indicated clearly their thoughts on this statement. Europe did not take seriously the wakened successor of the USSR.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Hegemony, European Union, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

14406. The Arab Spring: A Decade Later

Author:: Mario Stefanov
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: This year marks the tenth anniversary of the outbreak of the so-called Arab Spring. Suicide of an unemployed young man in the Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid on 17 December 2010 has enticed the protesters to take to the streets and it has triggered and open rebellion against Tunisian autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali - who on 14 a decade later, it can be stated with certainty that the revolutions of the Arab Spring were not successful. These revolutions have not ushered in neither modernization nor democratization of the Arab countries, which was the revolutions declared objective. To the contrary, even Tunisia, a country said to have had a successful revolution, had also replaced one dictatorship with another. Effects of the violent upheavals of January 2011 boarded on plane and fled to Saudi Arabia, escaping in front of the revolutionary chaos. Successful toppling of Ben Ali has set off a string of uprising in the Arab countries that are today known as the Arab Spring. Nowadays, the Arab Spring in other Arab countries include strengthening od forces of Islamist extremism, conflicts on ethnic, religious and sectarian divisions, civil wars, total economic destruction of the most of the Arab countries caught by the revolutionary wave, dissolution of formerly strong Arab states, and triggering the waves of migrations that still flow toward Europe. A decade after the outbreak of the Arab Spring revolutions the question of their real source remains unanswered, as well as the question to which extent these revolutions were stirred by internal forces in the Arab States of the Middle East and North Africa, or influenced by the factors from the outside. The question whether the revolutions of the Arabs Spring were just an acute geopolitical incident or a part of a long- term process, also remains unanswered. The tenth anniversary is an opportunity to reflect upon and analyze the facts and indications that manifest whom these revolutions benefited, and whom they harmed.
Topic:: Social Movement, Democracy, Arab Spring, Protests, Revolution, and Modernization
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

14407. The roaming threats: The security dimension of Almajiris’ mobility in Nigeria and its implications for Africa’s regional security

Author:: Oluwasola Festus Obisesan
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The culture of children begging for alms in Northern Nigeria is long-established and is propelled by poverty, ‘parentlessness’, the absence of parental care and, most importantly, the Islamic doctrines of ‘giving’ to children who are made to seek for qur’anic education outside their parents’ homes. The prevalence of these ‘almajirai’ in Northern Nigeria has begun to create new security dimensions as a result of their mobility given the context of their recruitment into terrorist sects such as Boko Haram and ISWAP. Almajirai have also indulged in drug addiction, street pickpocketing, and other urban crimes. Their mobility has constituted threats for transmission of dangerous communicable diseases such as Corona Virus-19 or what is known as COVID-19. This paper examines the non-military security dimensions associated with the mobility of wandering children beggars or what are often regarded as the Almajiris in Nigeria’s northern states. It examines the level of security threat that the Almajirai pose to the Nigerian state and what implications their mobility has for Nigeria’s internal security, especially in the age of international migration and globalisation. Further, the article analyses the dynamic ways in which the mobility of the Almajiris has threatened the security of the neighbouring states of Chad and Niger as well as West Africa’s regional security in general given its proximity and socio-cultural linkages. The paper employed secondary sources of data collection. It concludes that the mobility of Almajirai poses serious internal security challenges for Nigeria as it serves as a fertile ground for terrorist breeding and radicalization. Disease contraction and transmission, urban crimes such as car-hijacking tactics, pickpocketing, and criminal surveillance of potential innocent targets have become associated with their mobility; hence, regional security is endangered as a result of their increasing crossing of the loosely guarded Nigerian border to the Lake Chad area and West Africa.
Topic:: Security, Mobility, Almajiranci, and Roaming Threat
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

14408. Intrastate cultural and socio-political influences and the realisation of national security: A two-level correlational analysis

Author:: Dimitrios G. Pantazis
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper aims to examine how specific domestic social, political, and cultural motives affect the formation and implementation of national security agendas. The following assumptions drive the research rationale behind this essay: Security-making processes are considered non-similar among states due to different domestic political processes, cultural discourses, and socialisation patterns. Therefore, national security agents are constantly being guided by various intrastate settings, which construct attitudes that are ultimately reflected in policy formation and implementation through strategic behavioural manifestations. The realisation of national security is thus dependent on each state actor’s existent strategic culture, and given that, such choices cannot be contemplated in a strictly rational way. The methods of literature review and multi-layered analysis are applied throughout this study. In particular, this text’s reasoning is based on contextualisation, identification, categorisation of variables, and correlational implications. In relation to the findings, the theoretical examination of the objects assessed provides adequate clarification on the interaction between the domestic motives, decision-makers’ perspectives, and strategic cultural manifestations. Specifically, it was critically identified that the two last concepts can have a complementary function during security-making processes, hence producing unique outcomes for each state actor. Consequently, this paper wishes to contribute by giving direction for future research and broader methodological implications on the role of intrastate socio-political and cultural motives as sources of strategic culture and determinants of national security-making attitudes; without ignoring other factors that can respectively affect the aforementioned schemes.
Topic:: Security, National Security, Politics, Culture, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14409. Mediating effect of Indonesia’s public trust on national security from the sense of safety, knowledge, and willingness to participate in state defence efforts

Author:: Dadang Mas Bakar, Syamsunasir, and Agus Adriyanto
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Several studies that focus on the willingness to participate show that trust is a vital variable in mediating a person’s disposition to do so. This study examines the role of public trust in national security as a mediating variable of a sense of security and knowledge of the willingness to participate in state defence efforts. The data was collected via a questionnaire distributed to 435 respondents across Indonesia. We used a simple random sampling method; we then analysed using LISREL with Structural Equation Model (SEM). We found that trust cannot mediate a sense of safety and knowledge on the willingness to participate. An exciting finding was that knowledge affects trust, but sense of safety does not affect trust. This is interesting because it contradicts many studies related to political trust, when the willingness to participate is directly influenced by a sense of security and knowledge related to national security. Thus, to increase the willingness to participate in state defence efforts, it is necessary to increase the community’s sense of security and knowledge related to national security. In this case, we recommend providing education related to defence and security to the community and increasing the community’s sense of security.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Participation, and Trust
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

14410. Thirty years of Visegrád Group

Author:: Ivan Iliev
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: In February 1991, at a meeting of the Czechoslovak, Polish and Hungarian presidents, the decision to create an alliance of three Central European countries was made. In 1993, the division of the Czech and Slovak Federal Republics and the establishment of in 1335, attended by King of Bohemia, King of Hungary and King of Poland. Hundreds of years later, former Communist-bloc countries in Central Europe desired to overcome historical animosities between states and nations in this region, believing that joint efforts of relatively small countries would make their goals more achievable. The V4 was also established because post-Communist countries realized that they the independent Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic transformed the tripartite cooperation into a four-party alliance - V4. The name refers to a meeting, which took place near Budapest (at the castle in Visegrád), Hungary, could together boost the socio-economic transformation and join the European Union. Indeed, the V4 has accelerated cooperation and boosted the friendship among the Central European states throughout the years. Today, V4 is a regional structure of four EU and NATO member states that in general share similar economic, cultural and social values. V4 members recognize it as the alliance that strengthens the coordination mechanism to find similar positions on European policy, foreign policy, economic or cultural cooperation, and regional development. Visegrád Group, or shortly called the V4, marks 30 years of existence this year. This unique sort of cooperation has achieved some crucial goals but also failed in reaching cooperation on some EU topics. In the following lines, we will look at these achievements and failures, but will also explain where Visegrád is today and what should be done in order to make this alliance of Central European countries functioning better.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic

14411. Greece and Turkey: A Prime Example of a Complicated Relationship

Author:: Sofia Maria Satanakis
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The relations between Greece and Turkey are known to be historically tense and problematic. Despite being NATO allies, their relationship has been marked by various crises over the past decades and often caught the attention of the international community. Greece, on the intermittent military coups (1960, 1971, 1980), while as early as 1964, it became an associate member of the European Community; the goal being to ultimately join the ‘club’ – as Greece did back in 1981.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Greece

14412. Modelling computer networks for further security research

Author:: Zsolt Bederna and Tamás Szádeczky
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Computer networks are usually modelled from one aspect, e.g., the physical layer of the network, although this does not allow the researcher to understand all usage of that device. We aim to develop a model which leverages all aspects of a networked computer and, therefore, provides complete information to the scientist for all further security research, especially that related to the social sciences. Network science is about the analysis of any network, from social to protein. It is much easier to analyse computer networks with technical tools than protein networks. It is, therefore, a straightforward way to crawl the web as Albert-Laszlo Barabasi did to model its connections, nodes, and links in graph theory to analyse its internal connections. His analysis was based solely on the network layer. Our methodology uses graph theory and network science and integrates all ISO/OSI (computer networking) layers into the model. Each layer of the ISO/OSI model has its topology separately, but all of them also work as part of the complex system to operate the network. It therefore creates a multipartite graph of the network under analysis. Furthermore, the virtual private networks (VPNs) and application usage are also integrated as nodes and links. With this model, the computer network infrastructure and usage data can be used for further non-computing related research, e.g., social science research, as it includes the usage patterns of the network users.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Networks, and Computer Science
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14413. The Era of German Chancellor Angela Merkel: What Was and What Remains?

Author:: Thomas Brey
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: After the general election in Germany at the end of September, Angela Merkel will step down as Chancellor at the age of 67. She held this most important political office in Germany for almost exactly 16 years (2005-2021). She will thus equal the record of her former political mentor and Chancellor Helmut Kohl (1982- 1998). In 2021, she was named “Most PowerfulForbes for the tenth time in a row. In 2015, the US magazine Time named her “Person of the Year” on its cover. Merkel has received the highest state honors from Italy to Peru, from Portugal to Israel. In 2011, she was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom - one of the two highest state decorations in the USA. The world’s honorary doctorates are legion. Merkel had a picture-perfect professional career, although by today’s standards she became politically active for the first time relatively late, at the age of 35. In the final phase of the GDR, she became involved in the opposition. As “Kohl’s girl” (“Kohls Mädchen”) she became Minister for Women’s Affairs as early as 1989, then Minister for the Environment (1994-1998), CDU General Secretary (1998-2000) and finally Party Chair (until 2018). She completed her studies in East Germany with a highly praised dissertation. When she became Chancellor in 2005, she was the first woman to hold the office and the first Chancellor from East Germany.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Hegemony, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

14414. Assessing the cost of friction between NATO allies

Author:: Odysseus Katsaitis and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper proposes a method for assessing the cost of friction between North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies and highlights internal threats. This is applied to the Greek–Turkish conflict within the NATO context and concerns the functioning of defence expenditure in Greece, modified in such a way as to focus on the causes of friction between these allies. The analysis concentrates mainly on the issue of internal threats to the long-run equilibrium of NATO. The ARDL methodology used modifies the typical error correction model by introducing a mechanism that accelerates the process that leads back to the long-run equilibrium. Along with assessing the cost to an ally in relation to an internal threat, the method proposed allows the time required for the long-run equilibrium of NATO to be restored. The paper concludes that dynamic incidents of friction between allies expressed as an internal threat disturb NATO’s static equilibrium, destabilise an individual ally’s defence policy and contribute to cost being incurred.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Greece

14415. Military-protester relations: Insights from nonviolence research

Author:: Brian Martin
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Military forces are sometimes called out to confront unarmed civilian protesters, a contingency for which they may or may not be prepared. Studies of civil-military relations have focused on relations between civilian and military elites, with interactions between armed forces and civilian protesters given little or no attention. The objective here is to improve understanding of militaryprotester dynamics. Key relevant features of nonviolent action are outlined, including methods, campaign stages and theoretical assumptions, with a particular focus on interactions with troops. The implications for military-protester dynamics are spelled out with illustrations from several protest campaigns. When troops use force against non-resistant protesters, this sometimes creates more support for the protest movement, a process called political jiu-jitsu. An important method used by some protesters is fraternisation, namely trying to win over troops to their side. Commanders and troops, through their actions, can encourage or discourage protesters’ use of nonviolent methods. Learning about military-protester dynamics is important for both strategists and practitioners.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Protests, Civil-Military Relations, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14416. 2023: Turning Moment for European Energy Policy toward Balkans and the European Promotion of the Rule of Law

Author:: Aleksandar Kovacevic
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The year 2023 is likely to bring congruence of events that may cause a “perfect storm” of breaking down security of energy supply, fragile political stability in the Balkans and its unsustainable social contract. As the region grows fragmented from mid-1960’s till nowadays, very few economic forces remain the EU than among themselves. The terms of trade favor imports against exports. After 20 years of infrastructure development and integration efforts, with support of donors and creditors, despite small improvements; Logistic Performance Index (LPI) for the Balkan countries remains slightly over half of best performers such as Germany. Port resources in place that may cause such impact to entire region in the given moment of time. Cross border trade in goods and services is negligibly small. Countries trade more with the rest of are not allocated in line with the commercial practice. That is not good enough for the region that links Mediterranean with the landlocked Danube area. Travel time along major railway routes (Zagreb – Belgrade or Belgrade -Bar) are twice longer than during 1980’s. Belgrade Port, that is the key destination for transport with all sea ports in the region is constrained by the city planning and kept below minimum throughput to be reported in European inland port statistics. Croatia, Montenegro or Albania, are hardly in position to engage into trade as their ports operate far below competitive thresholds. The transactions are prohibitively expensive.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, European Union, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

14417. America’s “Forever War” and the End of the Washington-led Unipolar World

Author:: Darren Spinck
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: America’s retreat from Afghanistan culminated in the country falling back into control of the Taliban, the very group that provided safe- haven for al-Qaeda prior to the September 11, 2001 attacks. America suffered immeasurable pain and costs from this jihadist attack on US soil, made possible by intelligence failures, evolved for the “Global War on Terror.” Twenty years later, Washington still has not learned from pre-9/11 mistakes. Prior to America’s complete withdrawal from Afghanistan, US intelligence was unable to convince the White House of the Afghan government’s fragility and the Taliban’s intentions. Radical Islamists in Afghanistan capitalized on policymaking which did not recognize the emerging Islamist threat towards America. Al-Qaeda’s September 11 tactical victory begat a series of foreign policy blunders in Afghanistan as strategies missteps again, celebrating another victory over America when the Taliban flag rose over the Afghan presidential palace on September 11, 2021.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Leadership, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

14418. Turkey and Russia in Syrian war: Hostile friendship

Author:: Cemil Doğaç İpek and Mehmet Çağatay Güler
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This study considers Russian-Turkish relations within the context of the Syrian war. We elaborate on both Russia’s and Turkey’s strategies and their understanding of the Syrian War, and consider how the two countries have managed to stay on the same page despite conflictual strategies and geopolitical interests in Syria. The current literature does not address this question and does not thoroughly compare their actions and engagements in the field. This article aims to clarify Turkey-Russia relations in the Syria and provides evidence of how they are in conflict and cooperate at the same time. In this regard, it is argued that the available evidence indicates that Turkey-Russia relations in Syria operate on the “compartmentalisation” strategy. In order to test this argument, the qualitative research method based on secondary resources is used while the theoretical framework previously formulated by Onis and Yilmaz (2015) is adopted. They conceptualise Turkey-Russia relations as if they do “compartmentalise economic issues and geopolitical rivalries in order to avoid the negative spillover of certain disagreements into areas of bilateral cooperation.” Furthermore, they claim that compartmentalisation can be hindered if there are deepening security concerns in an area like Syria. However, this article underscores that compartmentalisation does not only work by separating the economic issue from geopolitical rivalries; it also makes Turkey and Russia able to cooperate and conflict in a specific and fundamentally conflictual geopolitical issue such as Syria. The convergences and divergences that occurred in the Syrian field are conceptualised under the strategy of compartmentalisation. In this context, the cooperation – the signed agreements and established mechanisms, conflicts, and clashes in the field, are acknowledged as the consequences of the compartmentalisation strategy in Syria. The compartmentalisation strategy is specifically used in Syria in order to avoid the negative impacts of direct clashes in bilateral cooperation and agreements. It can therefore be concluded that the deepening divergence in security related issue does not necessarily prevent compartmentalisation; on the contrary, compartmentalisation paves the way for stabilisation of such deepening divergence.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Syrian War, and Compartmentalization
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

14419. Current State of Ukraine’s Play within the Geopolitical Map of Europe

Author:: Iuliia Osmolovska
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The beginning on November has been rich on worrysome developments in Eastern Europe and around Ukraine in particular. With reports of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) of continued and evergrowingnumberofceasefireviolationson the frontline in Donetsk and Lugansk regions - climbing to more than 750 daily on 12th and 13th November - satellite data on suspicious build-up of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border and respective US warning its EU allies of Russia’s potential invasion in Ukraine, migrant crisis on Polish-Belarussian border leading to aggressive land and aerial border patrol checks by joint Belarus and Russia military forces - the whole security landscape of Eastern Europe becomes ever more shaky and troublesome. Spiced up with undeclared energy war in Europe and Troyan Horse of Nord Stream 2, muscle stretching in the Black Sea, still-to-be-defined political configuration and policies of the new German government, turbulent presidential run-up France, everything leads to ideal mulled waters for perfect fishing. At first glance, all the mentioned presents rather gloomy picture of unfavorable setting, in which Ukraine has to operate nowadays. Russia seemingly has a tactical upper hand it its confrontation with the West and enjoys this advantage. Yet, this could be true, if we ignore some fundamental systemic changes. They are firmly shaping irreversibility of Ukraine’s pro- Western orientation and ever further steady integration into European and Euro-Atlantic structures, thus leaving tiny fading prospect for potential return of Ukraine into Russian orbit of influence. Recent poll data demonstrate that 62% of Ukrainians support the country’s integration into the EU, while 58% support Ukraine’s membership in NATO. The number of Ukrainians, who see better guarantees in Ukraine’s membership in NATO has risen to 55% in 2020 (compared to 26% for neutral status and 5% for a military union with Russia and other CIS countries).
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

14420. Disinformation as a threat to national security on the example of the COVID-19 pandemics

Author:: Wojciech Łukasz Sługocki and Bogdan Sowa
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Nowadays, the vast majority of the threats to our security is related to information security, resulting in a significant transformation of national security systems. One such threat is disinformation, which is increasingly being used intentionally. The study examines certain impacts of disinformation on national security as a system, on the example of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the study explores some processes visible at the international level and reviews some external problems in connection with national security. Research methods and techniques implemented in the research process itself are primarily based on a critical analysis of the literature and the analysis and synthesis of published research results. The main findings show that the phenomenon of disinformation, which intensifies in crisis situations (e.g. related to the outbreak of a pandemic) contributes to the destabilization of public mood, hinders the functioning of the basic organs of the state and, consequently, increases the negative effects of crisis events. Secondly, the disinformation used during the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated its effects, causing damage on an unprecedented scale. The analyses show that the fight against disinformation must be based on the assumption that the security of the state depends primarily on the information awareness of each citizen. Social awareness is built through effective education aimed at raising basic medical knowledge. Disinformation has serious consequences for modern countries as it creates a new threat to their national security in peacetime.
Topic:: National Security, COVID-19, Disinformation, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14421. The Balkan Kettle: Russia’s policy towards the Balkans

Author:: Bogusław Jagiełło
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The purpose of this article is to identify the policy orientations of Russia in the Balkans. The historical aspects of Russia’s political and cultural ties with the Balkan region and Russia’s policy towards the Balkans during the USSR period will feature. As the Balkans are an important factor in Russia’s geopolitical game to retain influence in Europe, the author analyses Russia’s contemporary policy in the Balkans, its interests and the measures taken to achieve its specific goals. It can be concluded that Russian involvement in some Balkan countries is exhausting the elements of a hybrid war. Two possible models of geopolitical behaviour in relation to Russia can be distinguished. The first is to continue trying to stay as far away from Russia, the second is to build effective mechanisms for socioeconomic cooperation. It can be implied that Russia will not hesitate to repeat the hybrid war scenario from Ukraine in order to maintain its political influence in the region. Only the EU returning to a consistent policy of enlargement involving the Balkan countries and the economic strengthening of the Member States from the Balkan region can weaken Russia’s political influence in the region.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Politics, Religion, History, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Balkans

14422. AUKUS Security Pact: Setting the Rivalry with China in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Krševan Antun Dujmović
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The announcement of the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, known by the acronym AUKUS, intended to enhance cooperation between the three countries in the Indo- Pacific region in defense and security, has sent shockwaves throughout the world, especially the UK for the Royal Navy of Australia. The nuclear fueled submarines will be armed by conventional weapons, the number of acquired vessels will be at least eight, and as a typically Australian request, part of the vessels will be constructed in Australia’s naval shipyards. So far, the US, the UK, Russia, China, France in China and Europe. The key element of the AUKUS pact, signed on 15th September 2021, is the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines from the US and and India are the only six countries that have commissioned nuclear-powered submarines. Furthermore, before signing the AUKUS pact, the UK was the only country in the world with which the US was sharing the nuclear propulsion technology, under the Mutual Defense Agreement signed back in 1958. The supply of Australia with British and American nuclear-powered attack submarines, as the most delicate part of the AUKUS pact, attracted by far the most of media attention and provoked China’s aggressive reaction. Even more, the three nations security pact, which is in principal intended to bring “enhanced trilateral security partnership for the 21st century”, has made Beijing particularly worried as China fears that this triple alliance is pointed directly against it. The three countries intend to step up their cooperation in the security and defense sector, and apart from cooperation in industrial production of new military equipment, AUKUS also envisages a broad cooperation in the fields where the three countries feel particularly threatened by China’s staggering growth, and they include cyber security, quantum computing and artificial intelligence.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Alliance, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: United States, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, and Indo-Pacific

14423. Effects of botnets – a human-organisational approach

Author:: Zsolt Bederna and Tamás Szádeczky
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Botnets, the remotely controlled networks of computers with malicious aims, have significantly affected the international order from Ukraine to the United States in recent years. Disruptive software, such as malware, ransomware, and disruptive services, provided by those botnets has many specific effects and properties. Therefore, it is paramount to improve the defences against them. To tackle botnets more or less successfully, one should analyse their code, communication, kill chain, and similar technical properties. However, according to the Business Model for Information Security, besides technological attributes, there is also a human and organisational aspect to their capabilities and behaviour. This paper aims to identify the aspects of different attacks and present an analysis framework to identify botnets’ technological and human attributes. After researching the literature and evaluating our previous findings in this research project, we formed a unified framework for the human-organisational classification of botnets. We tested the defined framework on five botnet attacks, presenting them as case studies. The chosen botnets were ElectrumDoSMiner, Emotet, Gamover Zeus, Mirai, and VPNFilter. The focus of the comparison was motivation, the applied business model, willingness to cooperate, capabilities, and the attack source. For defending entities, reaching the target state of defending capabilities is impossible with a one-time development due to cyberspace’s dynamic behaviour and botnets. Therefore, one has to develop cyberdefence and conduct threat intelligence on botnets using such methodology as that presented in this paper. This framework comprises people and technological attributes according to the BMIS model, providing the defender with a standard way of classification.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Botnets
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14424. Bargaining power and U.S. military aid in the post-cold war era

Author:: Yu Wang
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This study examines the effect of bargaining power on the allocation of U.S. military assistance. Conceptualising U.S. military assistance as an aid-for-policy deal, it applies a two-tiered stochastic frontier model to a data sample of the post-Cold War era. It shows that the bargaining effect accounts for a huge variation in U.S. military aid distribution. The volume of U.S. military assistance in equilibrium is lower than the baseline volume by 4% at the mean and by 6% at the median. The donor U.S. extracts a slightly larger portion of the transaction surplus at these central points. However, the game of surplus division is not always about equally strong hagglers as it may first appear. In fact, the quartile values show substantial variance in bargaining performance and, hence, an outcome of surplus division across transactions. The bargaining effect is highly significant in the allocation of U.S. military assistance in the post-Cold War era. The donor U.S enjoys a bargaining advantage at the mean and median, but rich variations are noticeable.
Topic:: Military Aid, Bargaining, Post-Cold War, and Stochastic Frontier
Political Geography:: United States of America

14425. High power microwave for knocking out programmable suicide drones

Author:: Mohamed Zied Chaari
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The primary research objective is to reduce the dangers of rogue drones in our lives and the consequences of extremist groups, drug dealers, and organised criminals using them. The growing number of incidents involving modified drones proves the weakness of existing technology in stopping and neutralising errant drones such as the hand-held gun jammer, trained eagle, R.F. jammer, and others. This technology is not very likely to able to knock out a rogue drone and is incapable of stopping programmable drones. This article aims to examine the directed energy of HPM (high power microwaves) in using the electromagnetic field strength energy to damage the drone’s structure or burn its PCB board electronics. It goes on to analyse electronic attack using microwave power with high frequency to immediately switch off drones. The effectiveness of high microwave power for disrupting drones at different distances and in different weather conditions is evaluated. A study of the conical horn antenna of the magnetron coupling system, which has an operating frequency of 2.45 GHz, is also included.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14426. Defence diplomatic relations between Poland and China and how they can be improved

Author:: Lech Drab
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The main purpose of the article is to examine diplomatic relations between China (official name: the People’s Republic of China) and Poland with a special focus on defence. It also gives an overall assessment of the relations between the armed forces of the two countries and evaluates what has been achieved so far and possible involvements that the countries (especially Poland) should take. A comparative analysis and a historical approach were used whilst investigating the facts. Qualitative research, including participant observation, archival resources, analysis and selection of studies, reports and expertise were the methods employed for collecting research material. Comparative studies were used to analyse other countries’ relations with China to help come to a conclusion. Based on the research, the author recommends an intensification of defence diplomacy between Poland and China which would bring a number of defence and economic benefit to both Warsaw and Beijing. The latest changes in the global balance of power, especially economic, political and military, should be taken into account in the process of developing and implementing a comprehensive and long-term strategic programme in the field of defence diplomacy between Poland and China.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Poland

14427. Non-violent civil resistance against military force: The experience of Lithuania in 1991

Author:: Audrone Petrauskaite
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Evolving threats to national security have resulted in the adoption of comprehensive (total) defence concepts by a number of small and medium states. Civil resistance constitutes a considerable part of such concepts, complementing military defence. The historical experience of Lithuania proved the value of nonviolent resistance between 1988 and 1991 for regaining independence, and defending it in January 1991. The aim of this article is to analyse the role of non-violent civil resistance in the national defence system, based on the experience of 13 January 1991 in Lithuania and develop further discussion about the concept of civil resistance. The methodological approach of the article is based on historical and theoretical analysis. This allows the experience of Lithuania to be assessed on the basis of Lithuanian National Security and Defence Strategy and scientific research. Lithuanian non-violent civil resistance in 1988–1991 was successful in terms of strategy, leadership, organisation, planning, non-violence priorities and the number of citizens involved. The leaders of the movement were able to mobilise people into a widespread movement based on their moral authority and value orientations, strongly appealing to different groups in society. Lithuania’s independence was achieved with minimal human sacrifice, preserving the country’s resources and infrastructure. This experience of non-violent civil resistance came to be used by modern state institutions to create strategic documents of the state. In the current situation, it is necessary to focus not only on the knowledge required for state defence and civil resistance, but also on its moral aspects such as values, ethical behaviour, civic and human maturity.
Topic:: History, Armed Forces, Nonviolence, and Civil Resistance
Political Geography:: Europe, Lithuania, and Baltic States

14428. Possible applications of GIS tools in order to prepare for drinking water distribution network emergencies

Author:: Endre Salamon, Tamás Papp, and Zoltán Goda
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Data acquisition and computerised analysis can be used to plan for emergencies related to important pipe networks. The objective of this study is to illustrate how GIS and hydraulic calculations may be used to reduce the impact of unexpected events, such as contamination and physical destruction and train operators for such scenarios. A case study with calibrated hydraulic calculations is used to investigate the uncertainty of the obtained information. Hydraulic conditions and contaminant transport are simulated with open source software. It is shown how GIS analysis can be utilised to find optimal solutions for flow redirection problems and shutting off portions of the network. A control system integrated network hydraulic simulation solution is described in order to make training and preparation more efficient. The investigation revealed serious deficiencies regarding the necessary input for running simulations. Contaminant transport results indicated that localisation based on computed water quality models is possible, but contains uncertainties. Data processing and simulation are shown to be a promising tool in decision support and preparation based on the applications outlined. Despite advanced databases and computerised analysis tools, collected data and dynamic simulation are not utilised to their full potential in the process of planning for emergencies. Based on the hypothetical simulation presented, further research and data collection are required to reduce the uncertainty of contaminant transport. For future research, more effort has to be put into developing simulation environments.
Topic:: Water, Pipeline, Simulation, and GIS
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14429. Assessments and foreign policy implications of the national security of the Republic of Serbia

Author:: Miroslav Mitrovic
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: National security determines the degree to which endangering national interests that sublimate national values is absent. With a review of the genesis and framework of the modern interpretation of national security, the paper discusses its approaches to endangerment. A retrospective of the ideas of endangerment in the paradigm of the changed physiognomy of contemporary conflicts and dynamic geopolitical movements creates the need for an innovative approach and prediction in national security strategic assessments. The paper provides an overview of the internal and external political aspects of national security and a framework for the actions of prominent entities according to the perceived foreign policy interests of importance for the Republic of Serbia’s security. By analysing common and conflicting interests of Serbia and forces that have geopolitical interests in the Western Balkans, it is possible to establish the most objective framework for predicting the trend of relationship development and the vector of influence. The paper analyses Serbia’s interactions with Russia, the United States, and the EU. The findings point to a complex situation regarding Serbia’s national security, where Russia seeks to maintain its strong soft power presence, the United States wants close cooperation and insistence on recognising Kosovo’s independence, and the EU does not vigorously stimulate or promote Serbia’s European integration. In that way, a concrete contribution is made to the developing of strategic assessments of possible trends of importance for the Republic of Serbia’s security, as well as to the achievement of declared national goals.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Eastern Europe, Serbia, Balkans, and United States of America

14430. Simulation framework for practical cybersecurity training in the public service sector

Author:: Veronika Deák
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The public service sector is a key target of cyberattacks. In order to prevent and effectively tackle such attacks, organisations should continuously develop their defence capabilities. As part of developing such capabilities, public service cybersecurity training is required to teach students about cyberattacks. The present study uses quantitative research techniques including (i) how to identify key requirements for the practical aspects of public service cybersecurity training and (ii) sampling to utilise international best practices from cybersecurity education and conceptual architectures from existing public service organisations. A schematic structure with a two-level practical training course is proposed. On the first level, the students learn about the defence mechanisms of their own info-communication devices and try to prevent attacks in a simulated environment. On the second level, the students apply protection strategies against cyberattacks in organisational infrastructure. Finally, a technical framework is defined to simulate cyberattacks against (a) personal devices and (b) a fictional organisational infrastructure. The specification of a public service cybersecurity training programme should not only focus on theoretical education but also provide practical knowledge to students. By simulating specific attacks, theoretical and practical knowledge can be combined. As a result, students will be able to recognise threats and potential risks from cyberspace.
Topic:: Education, Cybersecurity, Training, Public Service, and Simulation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14431. Thoughts on the evolution of national security in cyberspace

Author:: Imre Dobák
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Nowadays, the vast majority of the threats to our security come from cyberspace, resulting in a significant transformation of national security systems. Behind these changes, we can find some organisational and capability responses to technological developments, seeing that the function of national security is inseparable from the social environment and its processes. The study examines certain impacts of cyberspace on national security as a system, addressing some features of the changing external environment. The topic is related to the research on the relationship between the information society and security in the 21st century. Therefore, the study explores some processes visible at the international level and reviews some external environment trends in connection with national security. The role of the technological environment and cyberspace has already come to the fore in connection with national security threats. The changes affect the future of national security thinking and the development of principles and methods. It is the task of national security services operating under strict legislation to respond effectively to various threats in a changing environment. All this is only possible through the continuous monitoring of changes in the environment and long-term strategic thinking.
Topic:: Intelligence, National Security, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14432. Assisting Syrian refugees in Turkey: International approaches and domestic policies

Author:: Sára Gibárti
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: After the breakout and the escalation of the Syrian civil war and because of its humanitarian consequences, Turkey now hosts the largest refugee community worldwide. This paper attempts to investigate the role of the international community in assisting Syrian refugees in Turkey. Beyond looking at the main elements of the Turkish government policies, this study focuses on the Emergency Social Safety Net Programme of the European Union, the World Food Programme and the Turkish Red Crescent. It also reviews the Turkish aspects of the Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan of the United Nations. The primary purpose of the study is to provide a comparative analysis of the two programmes alongside the main objectives, results and difficulties. Beyond reviewing the essential international literature, the examination of this issue is principally based on data analysis of the reports of relevant international organisations. The Turkish government plays an important role in this crisis and the actions of international organisations complement the country’s domestic policies. Two international aid programmes are compared and a conclusion is reached that the Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan tries to balance urgent humanitarian needs with durable solutions, while the Emergency Social Safety Net Programme is determined by humanitarian aspects. Nonetheless, both initiatives address the challenges to the Turkish host community which are posed by the protracted refugee issue. While acknowledging the remaining gaps, challenges and the obvious complexity of the refugee situation in Turkey, it can be concluded that the aid initiatives discussed have developed innovative solutions to address this protracted crisis.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Refugees, Syrian War, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

14433. Mechanisms for providing cybersecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic: Perspectives for Ukraine

Author:: Oleksandr Karpenko, Aleksander Kuczabski, and Vitalii Havryliak
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The article analyses key cybersecurity trends against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic, trends that could lead to an increase in cyber threats. It also looks at cyber threats related to remote work in this period. Foreign experience in counteracting the spread of disinformation online, about COVID-19, has been studied. A global trend for strengthening law enforcement control over cyberspace content, network traffic, and digital devices of users has been identified. It has been established that some states are finding it difficult to counteract the spread of coronavirus-related threats and are sometimes resorting to violating the traditional balance of rights and freedoms of citizens in cyberspace, in fact, legalising cyber-surveillance of citizens. The paper investigates the limits of state intervention in the lives of citizens in the face of a real threat to national security. In matters of cybersecurity in the medical sphere, a shift of emphasis from the problem of protection of personal data of patients to the protection of key functions of the medical sphere is revealed. Mechanisms for implementing cybersecurity to counter the spread of fake news (misinformation) on the internet, about COVID-19, are substantiated. Practical tools and cybersecurity measures used during the COVID-19 pandemic are recommended for Ukrainian authorities. The importance of creating appropriate conditions for ensuring the balance between the implementation of restrictive policies in the field of cybersecurity and ensuring freedom of speech and openness of the internet is proven.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Fake News
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Eastern Europe

14434. Ecological threats to security and state resilience in Afghanistan

Author:: Markus Gauster
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This work explores ecological and climate-related threats to Afghanistan and discusses support approaches from a European Crisis Management (ECM) perspective. It goes beyond the much-debated troop withdrawal, COVID-19 crisis and peace negotiations and opens an underestimated topic: ‘Climate Change Assistance’. The article aims to advance knowledge on the effects of climate change on human security in Afghanistan and advocates a conflict-sensitive approach. To this end, a climate-related assessment of the human security situation was undertaken and several threat scenarios, options and solutions for enhancing state resilience were developed. The bases for this research were several field trips undertaken by the author since 2004, workshops and an extensive literature review. As a result, it can be stated that the negative impacts of climate change and pollution on Afghanistan’s security and development architecture are massive and make ECM efforts very complex. However, several capacity-building initiatives for military, diplomatic, humanitarian and local stakeholders were identified. On the regional level, this includes the support for early warning systems and hydro-diplomacy with Pakistan, Iran and India. On the local level, the support for community water management and environmental protection matters, while building upon traditional Afghan mechanisms for handling water crises or disasters. Another outcome is the need for more in-depth research in this field as some findings are also useful for other fragile states. The paper argues that there is an urgent need for ECM to respond to the devastating effects of climate change in Afghanistan and identifies several smart opportunities to tackle some root causes of the conflict.
Topic:: Climate Change, Water, Crisis Management, Human Security, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

14435. Lawfare as part of hybrid wars: The experience of Ukraine in conflict with Russian Federation

Author:: Zakhar Tropin
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The main objective of the article is to prove the need for the state to have a centralised legal strategy to ensure the protection of state interests on an international level during a hybrid conflict. Centralisation of control and the planning and implementation of legal actions on an international level are core elements of such a strategy, especially for actions under the jurisdiction of international institutions. This article provides an analysis of treaties and of the practice of adjudication in Ukraine during the conflict with the Russian Federation. The findings of the study show that the legal dimension of hybrid conflict has some sub-levels: legal actions of states in hybrid conflicts taken at interstate level; the level of enterprises controlled by the state; and the private level. The practice of Ukraine shows that the exercising of a multilevel legal encounter during a hybrid war faces a number of problems including the intersection of actions (sometimes even direct conflict), even among authorities involved in the legal protection of state interests; and problems with collecting and analysing the information necessary to protect state interests in the legal dimension; state authorities that are not directly involved in a legal encounter may exercise actions which will complicate the legal position of the state. One of the first steps taken by the state in a hybrid conflict is, therefore, to create special authority or entrust an existing one with the coordination of the functions of lawfare. The next step of such an authority is the strategic “programming” of the opponent’s legal actions with the aim of achieving an advantage in the legal dimension of a hybrid conflict.
Topic:: Conflict, Hybrid Warfare, and Lawfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

14436. Bottom-up Accountability in Uganda: Learning from People-centered, Multi-level Health Advocacy Campaigns

Author:: Angela Bailey, Vincent Mujune, and Prima Kazoora
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: Uganda’s laws, policies and health sector strategies codify openings for citizen participation in planning and monitoring government services, yet these spaces are often inaccessible in practice. In response to this, a consortium of civil society organizations led by GOAL designed and implemented the Accountability Can Transform Health (ACT Health) program in Uganda from 2012 to 2018. This paper draws on program monitoring data, empirical evidence, and supplementary interviews to analyze how and the extent to which the ACT Health multi-level, people-centered advocacy campaigns strengthened accountability for health from the bottom up.
Topic:: Government, Accountability, Advocacy, and Public Health
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

14437. How Do World Bank Staff Perceive the Institutional Environment for Building Citizen Engagement into Projects?

Author:: Rachel Nadelman
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: How do World Bank staff perceive institutional opportunities and bottlenecks for undertaking citizen engagement (CE) as part of projects? The Accountability Research Center (ARC) at American University sought to answer this question by going beyond formal institutional directives and asking the staff themselves. ARC interviewed 30 World Bank staff involved with stakeholder and civic engagement in different capacities. Respondents represented the World Bank’s six administrative regions and a range of Global Practices, as well as operational, analytic, advisory, and managerial roles. The Open Society Foundations funded this independent research, which took place in consultation with senior World Bank management, without their direct involvement in the research or writing. During the February–August 2019 research period, the World Bank initiated an internal restructuring process which included changes to the leadership of the citizen engagement agenda. This report offers important insights that continue to be relevant for the Bank’s crucial CE work, particularly for its Citizen Engagement and Social Accountability Global Solutions Group in the new Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice. The findings can also contribute to the efforts of public interest groups interested in strengthening the World Bank’s work in this area. The main findings resulting from this qualitative survey of World Bank staff perceptions include: Staff overwhelmingly credited the World Bank’s mainstreaming commitments for having increased the prominence of CE across the institution and expanding its visibility in projects. However, most viewed incentives as geared toward meeting minimum standards rather than achieving maximal impact; The primary internal promoters of the CE agenda, Regional and Global Practice Focal Points, are hampered by significant time and financial constraints. The institutional emphasis on compliance with minimum project design standards has meant that most do not know if or how the design commitments are carried out in practice; Staff consistently cited a lack of reliable, dedicated funding for CE monitoring and follow-up support for why advancements in design would not translate into improved CE in practice; Staff perceived that those World Bank regions and sectors that pursued CE most ambitiously and consistently were those whose management actively sought visibility for the agenda and proactively advocated for and secured dedicated funding; There is limited strategic coordination between the Bank’s CE agenda and its new Environmental and Social Framework (ESF), which establishes standards for stakeholder engagement and information disclosure. Unlike the CE agenda, the ESF introduces policy reforms supported by strict guidelines, dedicated staff, and uniquely robust monitoring and enforcement apparatus. More consistent attention to finding synergy would allow the CE program to leverage the ESF’s strengths while bolstering the unique aspects of CE that the ESF does not cover.
Topic:: World Bank, Institutions, Workforce, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14438. Pugwash Note on Northeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone

Author:: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:: Denuclearization of Korean Peninsula is one of the most important security issues that the countries in the region, including the US, will face. Given the ongoing development of nuclear and missile programs in Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and increasing tensions between nuclear weapon countries (US, Russia and China) in the region, it is critically important to reduce risk of nuclear war in the region and to find a way to resolve a current deadlock in negotiations between DPRK and the US for denuclearization of Korean Peninsula. This paper proposes a comprehensive approach to peace and stability in the region as well as a phased denuclearization of Korean Peninsula and eventually establishing Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (NWFZ) in the region
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korean Peninsula

14439. Pugwash Note on Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament

Author:: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:: In early 2021 there is every reason to say that the global arms control and disarmament process, despite earlier achievements, has reached a critical point. The complete or de facto demise of key arms control treaties (such as the ABM Treaty, the CFE Treaty, and the INF Treaty) has left a vacuum in the arms control architecture, thus triggering new challenges for crises and global stability. The Open Skies Treaty is facing an existential threat. The Chemical Weapons Convention is also in a difficult situation, particularly in relation to the Syrian problem and the alleged poisoning of certain Russian personalities. The CTBT, concluded 25 years ago, is shamefully not yet in force. The only existing arms control treaty between the US and Russia is now New START, which was due to expire on 5 February 2021 since its renewal had proved to be impossible under the Trump Administration. But now it is well-known that the prospects for this treaty are much better (see below). The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is also under serious threat. And this is not only just because of the poor situation with respect to the implementation of Article VI which requires “each of the parties to pursue negotiations in good faith on measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control”. There are also some unresolved crisis situations: a very important one is around the Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA), and more generally about the issue of the creation of a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East (see On the Iran Nuclear Agreement and Middle East Security, December 2020). Moreover, there is the very critical situation on the Korean Peninsula and the problem of creating a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Northeast Asia (see Note on Northeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone, January 2021). On the other hand, imminent extension of the New START Treaty will be a very positive signal, including for the NPT Review Conference. Pugwash also welcomes very much the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons on 22 January 2021 (see Pugwash Note on the Entry into Force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, 21 January 2021). But it is also clear that, for some time to come, it will have to exist without any of the states which possess nuclear weapons (or even those that host American nuclear weapons), and more generally probably without any state allied to a nuclear-weapon state. This situation could generate another line of tension within the NPT. As a result, the NPT Review Conference, now rescheduled for August 2021, will be very relevant and care should be exercised in order to avoid concerning results.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14440. The (Im-)Possibility of Rational Socialism: Mises in China’s Market Reform Debate

Author:: Isabella Weber
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Investigate the long first decade of reform in China (1978-1992) to show that Mises, in particular his initiating contribution to the Socialist Calculation Debate, became relevant to the reconfiguration of China’s political economy when the reformers gave up on the late Maoist primacy of continuous revolution and adhered instead to an imperative of development and catching up. During the Cultural Revolution, Mao had rejected the notions of efficiency and rational economic management. In the late 1970s, the reformers under Deng Xiaoping’s leadership elevated these notions to highest principle. As a result, Mises’ critique that socialism could not achieve a rational economic order came to be debated throughout the 1980s and Chinese economists developed their own reading of Mises and the Socialist Calculation Debate. When Deng Xiaoping reinstated market reforms in the early 1990s after the Tiananmen crackdown, a history of thought review of the possibility of rational socialism and socialist markets helped to justify the Socialist Market Economy with Chinese Characteristics the official designation of China’s economic system to this day.
Topic:: Markets, History, Reform, Economy, and Socialism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

14441. The Nature of Money and the Theory of International Trade: Thornton and Ricardo

Author:: Isabella Weber
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: A rich recent literature reinvestigates the nature of money, but little attention has been paid to the ramifications of the ways in which we theorize money for the theory of international trade. This paper examines the logical relationship between the neutrality of money and self-balancing trade based on Henry Thornton and David Ricardo as two foundational contributions to credit and commodity money theories respectively. I show that both authors theorize trade as self-balancing whenever money is conceptualized as neutral. I distinguish two notions of the neutrality of money: ex ante and ex post neutrality. In Thornton’s Paper Credit money is not neutral ex ante: there can be temporary trade imbalances. But in the long-run money is neutral ex post and international trade boils down to self-balancing barter. In Ricardo money is neutral both ex ante and ex post and international trade is always balanced unless central bank policy undermines monetary neutrality.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Economy, Money, and Trade
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14442. The Impact of Environmental Regulations on Manufacturing Outsourcing: Re-examining the Pollution Haven Effect in Global Value Chain

Author:: An Li
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: As countries worldwide attempt to address a series of global and domestic environmental challenges, the pollution haven effect remains an ongoing concern among trade and environment researchers and policymakers. This paper examines the pollution haven effect in the context of global value chains using inter-country input-output data at the manufacturing industry level from 1995-2009. This paper pays special attention to the issue of “doublecounting” caused by intermediate trade. The analysis utilizes two outsourcing measures and two revealed comparative advantage measures appropriate for analyzing global value chains. I propose women’s political power as a novel instrumental variable to address the endogeneity of environmental regulation. Regression results show that more stringent environmental policies are not a significant determinant of manufacturing outsourcing and competitiveness in global value chains. At the same time, women’s political power is associated with more stringent environmental policies.
Topic:: Environment, Women, Economy, Trade, Pollution, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14443. Regulated Market, Trapped Workers: The Impacts of the "Tolerant and Prudent" Policy on Labour Precarity in China’s Online Ridehailing Sector

Author:: Wei Zhang, Hao Qi, and Zhongjin Li
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Since 2017, China has adopted the "tolerant and prudent" policy in regulating emerging digital platform industries. The impacts of this policy on labour precarity have been rarely studied. Drawing on an original survey of over 600 ridehailing drivers in two Chinese cities, Nanjing and Beijing, we conduct a political economy analysis for a three-party framework involving the municipal government, capital, and labour. We find that, in accordance with the "tolerant and prudent" principle, municipal governments stipulated regulations regarding the qualifications of ridehailing vehicles and drivers. These regulations, although they can help reduce labour precarity in the marketplace for licensed drivers, have exacerbated precarity in the workplace. Specifically, in response to the regulations, the ridehailing platforms aligned with thirdparty rental companies that provided licensed vehicles. This arrangement has effectively trapped many ridehailing drivers in the industry: our quantitative analysis shows that drivers bounded by a rental or rent-toown agreement worked significantly longer hours than counterparts who steered their own vehicles.
Topic:: Markets, Labor Issues, Regulation, Digital Economy, and Precarity
Political Geography:: China and Asia

14444. Does Project-Level Foreign Aid Increase Access to Improved Water Sources? Evidence from Household Panel Data in Uganda

Author:: Lynda Pickbourn, Raymond Caraher, and Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper combines geocoded subnational data on the location of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) aid projects in Uganda with nationally representative household-level panel survey data to evaluate the impact of WASH aid on access to water and on the burden of water collection. Specifically, it examines whether proximity to aid-funded WASH projects improves household access to improved water sources and reduces the time burden of water collection. Our results suggest that while aid-funded WASH projects increase household access to improved sources of water, households may also see the time burden of water collection increase, as they may need to travel longer distances and also experience longer wait times due to congestion at water service points. This is an indication that the supply of improved water sources is still insufficient relative to demand as measured by the population density.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Water, Data, and WASH Projects
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

14445. U.S. Monetary Policy and the Decline in the Interest Rates (1990-2007)

Author:: Santiago Capraro, Carlo Panico, and Luis Daniel Torres-Gonzalez
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Interest rates in the U.S. and in other countries have experienced persistent and generalised declines since the 1980s. The main interpretations of this phenomenon ignore the role of monetary factors, such as financial and monetary policy. The essay proposes an alternative interpretation based on the choice of the Federal Reserve (FED) to conduct monetary policy by attributing high priority to financial stability. The interaction between changes in financial regulation, the transformation of "specialized" into "universal” banking, and the concern with financial instability have led the central bank to add to the role of "lender of last resort" that of "lender of first resort," which systematically provides liquidity at a low cost to financial firms. This new conduct of monetary policy has produced the downward trend in interest rates.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, Economy, and Interest Rates
Political Geography:: United States of America

14446. The State-Constituted Market Economy: A Conceptual Framework for China’s State–Market Relations

Author:: Isabella Weber and Hao Qi
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: China has created a distinct economic system. Yet despite a growing literature with valuable contributions on the institutional arrangements under ‘capitalism with Chinese characteristics,’ the precise economic mechanisms underpinning China’s state–market relations remain undertheorised. In this paper we develop a conceptual framework of what we call China’s state-constituted market economy. We define essential as ‘systemically significant from the perspective of the state.’ We argue that the Chinese state ‘constitutes’ the market economy by creating, participating and steering markets for essentials in order to stabilise and guide the economy as a whole. We draw on China’s statecraft tradition as well as on proposals for financial policy reform in the U.S. to conceptualise the state market-constitution in China.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, and State-Market Relations
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

14447. Is There a Case for National Development Banks in Africa? Conceptual Rationale and Empirical Evidence

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana, Karmen Naidoo, and Francisco Perez
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: National development banks remain an important part of modern financial systems in developed as well as developing countries. The attention to the role of national development banks was reinvigorated in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, and their potential role in promoting access to finance and providing counter-cyclical financing is better appreciated today than in the structural adjustment era of the 1980s and 1990s. In this context, this study examines the landscape of national development banks in Africa and provides empirical evidence of their role in complementing commercial banks to meet the financing needs of the real sector using bank-level data from selected countries and the BankFocus database. The empirical results show that while national development banks do not lend more relative to commercial banks, they tend to focus more on medium-term and long-term lending as prescribed by their mandate. Interestingly, medium-term and long-term lending is associated with lower non-performing loan ratios as well as higher returns on assets. The results are similar for public banks. The evidence suggests that empowering national development banks with enhanced lending capacity and operational autonomy would significantly help alleviate the shortage of medium-term and long-term credit in African economies. The paper includes suggested avenues for further research.
Topic:: Economy, Banks, and Financial Systems
Political Geography:: Africa

14448. Notes on Covid-19, Potential GDP, and Hysteresis

Author:: Thomas Michi
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This note provides a model framework for thinking about stabilization policies in the presence of hysteresis after a negative shock like the Covid-19 pandemic. Headline measures of so-called potential GDP published by the Congressional Budget Office represent only one of many possible inflation-neutral trajectories for output. The term potential GDP is misleading since potential implies a unique limit on output. It is much more accurate to consider a range of possible trajectories or multiple equilibria. Repairing the damages from a shock will require overshooting the inflation target and running the economy above its inflation-neutral equilibrium in order to restore the status quo ante level of output and employment. The model assumes constant trend growth so that path dependence takes the form of pure output-level effects.
Topic:: Political Economy, GDP, COVID-19, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14449. The Public Banking Movement in the United States: Networks, Agenda, Initiatives, and Challenges

Author:: Esra Ugurlu and Gerald Epstein
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: In this paper, we analyze the contemporary public banking initiatives in the United States. We first provide a brief historical account of public-oriented banking in the United States. We then map out the central nodes in the contemporary public banking advocacy networks. Based on an online questionnaire and semi-structured interviews we held with public banking organizers and experts across the country, we provide an overview of the achievements of this growing movement, describe the central socio-economic issues they organize around, and examine the challenges they face. We demonstrate that the interest in public banking is a reaction to a number of socio-economic and ecological issues the United States faces, including the infrastructure crisis, ecological crisis, financial exclusion, and problems stemming from the management of state and local government resources. We argue that public banking can be an important tool in addressing these problems and suggest how the federal government, through the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, can support these initiatives.
Topic:: Political Economy, Banks, Advocacy, and Public Banking
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14450. Did Alcohol Policy Really Cause the Postsocialist Mortality Crisis? Revisiting the Rebound and Affordability Hypotheses

Author:: Aytalina Azarova, Gabor Scheiring, Michael Ash, and Lawrence King
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper reexamines the argument that alcohol policies were the major factor behind the mortality crisis in postsocialist Russia. We show that the correlation between the Gorbachev anti-alcohol campaign (rebound hypothesis), alcohol prices in the 1990s (affordability hypothesis), and mortality reported in previous analyses is not robust to splitting oblasts into Far- East and the rest of Russia. Our analysis conducted on a sample of 534 towns in the European part of Russia also finds no robust evidence supporting the two hypotheses. In contrast, findings linking privatization to mortality are robust to controlling for the anti-alcohol campaign and the affordability of alcohol.
Topic:: Health, Political Economy, Mortality, Alcohol, and Affordability
Political Geography:: Russia and Soviet Union

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS