Publication Year: within 5 Years - CIAO Search Results

14051. A New Era of US Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula

Author:: Joshua Nezam
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: This paper offers concrete policy recommendations and institutional tools for the incoming Biden administration and Congress to revise policy toward the Korean Peninsula. Deterring North Korea will remain a focus of the alliance, but prioritizing denuclearization must no longer monopolize the alliance’s political capital nor paralyze its global potential. The US and South Korea must clarify how shared values translate into policy convergence in security, economy, and technology domains to rediscover relevance in an era of multidimensional structural competition with China. Even without a comprehensive nuclear agreement with North Korea, the near-term priority must be to revitalize the regional security architecture to uphold extended deterrence to South Korea and Japan while institutionalizing a process of managing tensions and capping North Korea’s most destabilizing capabilities. Lastly, Congress must deliberate a viable path toward risk reduction and peace with Pyongyang while advocating for transformational change through advocacy for human rights and freedom of information.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Economy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: North America, Korean Peninsula, and United States of America

14052. What the Biden-Harris Administration means for WPS in the Indo-Pacific Region

Author:: Maryruth Belsey Priebe and Jennifer Howe
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The election of Kamala Harris as the first woman of color to serve as vice president of the United States is a beacon of hope for women everywhere. We explore how her ground-breaking election, alongside the new administration’s visible support for gender equality, could advance women’s rights globally. More specifically, we consider the implications of a Biden-Harris White House for the implementation of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda in the Indo-Pacific. A cornerstone of the WPS agenda is United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 (UNSCR 1325). Passed in 2000, UNSCR 1325 recognizes the gendered impacts of conflict and the importance of women’s inclusion in peace processes for long-term peace and stability. The WPS agenda consists of four overlapping pillars: Participation, Prevention, Protection, and Relief and Recovery. Addressing all four of these pillars is integral to ensuring full respect for human rights and cultivating sustainable peace. In this paper, we assess each pillar of the WPS Agenda from three angles—first, actions taken by Biden and Harris that indicate how they will engage with the WPS Agenda; second, progress and challenges to the implementation of the four WPS pillars in the Indo-Pacific; and, third, how the new administration could work with countries in the Indo-Pacific and other key stakeholders to overcome current challenges to the realization of core WPS objectives in the region.
Topic:: Security, Women, Peace, Equality, and Gender
Political Geography:: Indo-Pacific

14053. No One is Satisfied: Two Theories of the US-China Global Rivalry and the International Order

Author:: Younn Shwe Sin Htay
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: A remarkable shift is underway in the geostrategic relations between the United States, long a dominant global power, and China, a relentless economic engine with a rapidly growing military. Their competition promises to change the face of global politics in the 21st century. This paper examines that conflict from the perspectives of two discrete political theories: power transition theory and hegemonic stability theory, which come to different conclusions when applied to China and the United States separately. However, taken together with both nations in mind, they arrive at six possible futures, including regional warfare and a wholesale overhaul of the existing international order.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Strategic Competition, Strategic Stability, and International Order
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

14054. The Opportunity is There: South Koreans’ Views of China and the Future of the US-ROK Alliance

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Officially, relations between the Republic of Korea and the People’s Republic of China remain cordial. Because of China’s economic heft and South Korea’s reliance on unmolested trade with the former for its continued economic development, South Korea takes great pains to be as neutral as possible between the United States and China despite its formal alliance with the US. As such, many pejoratively refer to South Korea as “the weak link” in America’s Northeast Asia alliance system. However, on a civil society level, an overwhelming majority of the South Korean public has a negative view of China—a view that has steadily gotten worse over time. Being a democracy that reflects voters’ popular will, growing anti-Chinese sentiment among voters means South Korea’s current policy of placating China will not be sustainable indefinitely. Meanwhile, the Trump administration largely neglected the alliance between South Korea and the United States. That neglect notwithstanding, an overwhelming majority of South Koreans either strongly or somewhat support the alliance with the United States. Conditions are perfect for the Biden administration to seek to repair and strengthen relations with South Korea to empower the alliance to serve as a credible bulwark against Chinese expansionism—this paper offers solutions on how to do so.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economy, Alliance, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

14055. 21st Century Technologies, Geopolitics, and the US-Japan Alliance: Recognizing Game-changing Potential

Author:: Brad Glosserman, Crystal Pryor, and Riho Aizawa
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Throughout the month of October 2020, with support from the US Embassy Tokyo, the Pacific Forum cohosted with the Center for Rule-Making Strategies at Tama University, the Keio University Global Research Institute, and the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology a series of virtual panel discussions on “Game Changing Technologies and the US-Japan Alliance.” Over 280 individuals joined the 10 sessions – 7 closed door and 3 public panels – that examined issues such as artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, big data, cybersecurity, drones, quantum computing, robots, and 3-D printing. A conversation of this length and breadth is difficult to summarize, but the following key findings attempt to capture this rich and variegated discussion.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and United States of America

14056. Women, Peace and Security: A Competitive Edge for Australia and the US in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Joan Johnson-Freese
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Australia and the United States face great power competition with China due to a narrowing of gaps between them—economically and militarily—in the Indo-Pacific region. This narrowing of gaps should not be a surprise to anyone who did not expect China to be content with static growth and technological inferiority. Great power competition is actually about a rise in parity among competitors. The “edge” previously held by Australia and the United States over China has become smaller; therefore “wins” will be by very thin margins. This means Australia and the United States need to find new advantages to widen their thin margins of excellence and maintain security. This paper will discuss why the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda offers an edge, and how implementing respective national action plans for WPS and partnering widely and strongly with other Indo-Pacific countries on WPS can offer such new advantages.
Topic:: Security, Women, Peace, and Competition
Political Geography:: Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

14057. South Korea’s Demographic Advantage is Over: The Regional Context and the Economic and Security Implications

Author:: Tom Byrne and Jonathan Corrado
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: South Korea has the lowest birth rate in the world, its population—especially its working-age population—has declined, and the pronatalist polices of the past 20 years have not been successful at reversing this trend. Over time, this threatens the country’s economic and fiscal position, as well as its military position as the number of conscripts declines. While more advanced technology can help, over the long term it is no substitute for people, especially in the security realm. Overcoming this will require Korea to either shift to a new economic paradigm or else achieve a second Miracle on the Han River—this time demographic rather than economic.
Topic:: Security, Demographics, Economy, and Aging
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

14058. How Chinese COVID-19 Vaccines Will Impact China-Indonesia Vaccine Diplomacy

Author:: Jason Hung
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: This research will discuss how Indonesia’s final-stage Sinovac clinical trial results will play a leading role in determining China’s diplomatic power amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper analyzes how vaccine diplomacy will impact China-Indonesia relations: if Sinovac proves inefficacious, Jakarta is unlikely to cut ties with Beijing but may consolidate relations with Washington. However, as the United States faces its own COVID-19 struggles, this paper examines how Beijing can continue to use vaccine diplomacy as leverage to strengthen and expand its influence in South China Sea (SCS) disputes with minimal interference from Washington. Additionally, the paper will evaluate how the reliability of China’s Sinovac vaccine—especially after Beijing’s supply of health care products to Europe were found to be of unsatisfactory quality—will affect the outcomes of vaccine diplomacy, determining whether Beijing can restore its reputation globally in order to facilitate bilateral or multilateral cooperation. Finally, the paper will assess how the outcome of China-Indonesia vaccine diplomacy will help determine China’s opportunities to compete with major Western powers in the global vaccine market in the long-term.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, and Asia

14059. The United States’ Indo–Pacific Strategy and a Revisionist China: Partnering with Small and Middle Powers in the Pacific Islands Region

Author:: Patrick Dupont
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The advent of the Biden administration brings with it an opportunity for the United States to take a fresh look at the Pacific Islands Region (PIR) in the face of new geopolitical realities. Since the end of the Cold War, the PIR has largely been viewed by the United States as a tranquil backwater with little need for attention. Traditionally, the attention Washington did give to the region was exclusively focused on Micronesia—a region which contains both the Freely Associated States (FAS) and US territories such as Guam. The remainder of the PIR, the sub–regions of Melanesia and Polynesia, were often left to close US partners such as Australia and New Zealand. Washington’s strategic neglect of the PIR—coupled with a clear prioritisation of the FAS over other regional states—has overlapped with a gradual encroachment by non–traditional partners in an area where the United States has traditionally been the principal external power. These non–traditional partners range from US friends and allies such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan to strategic competitors such as Russia and China. Of these non–traditional partners, China has distinguished itself as the most significant in the PIR.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Geopolitics, Competition, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

14060. The Climate of Civil Disobedience: Liberal Studies as a Political Instrument under Hong Kong’s Secondary Education Curriculum

Author:: Jason Hung
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: In the most recent decade Hong Kong has undergone mass socio-political unrest. The outbreak, and amplification, of citywide civil disobedience has been magnified by the launch and delivery of Liberal Studies as a compulsory subject under the local senior secondary education curriculum. This has raised the political consciousness and awareness of Hong Kong youth. This paper first presents an overview of the anti-national education curriculum campaigns, the Umbrella Movement and the consequent socio-political unrest. It will then explore the political controversies over the delivery of Liberal Studies. Next, it will analyze how Liberal Studies has been subject to curricular reforms, and discuss whether such amendments have been the result of politicization by the pro-Beijing camp to counter the proliferation of anti-government and anti-China sentiments among Hong Kong youth. Lastly, this research will assess whether the aims to offer Liberal Studies as part of the secondary education curriculum have been fulfilled, and discuss how to close the gaps between the expected and actual learning outputs.
Topic:: Education, Protests, Civil Disobedience, and Curriculum
Political Geography:: Asia and Hong Kong

14061. Detachment by Default: the International Framework of the Karabakh Conflict

Author:: Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:: At the end of 1991, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict changed from being an internal conflict inside the Soviet Union to being an international dispute between the newly independent republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Topic:: International Relations, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

14062. Reasons for Russia’s War on Ukraine and its foreseeable consequences on Latin America

Author:: Nancy Janett García Vázquez
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:: This article analyzes the historical and political reasons that, in the author's opinion, have led to the war unleashed by the Russian Federation against Ukraine. It is also its purpose to analyze the war' imediate and mediate impacts at the international level, as well as its eventual consequences in the Latin American region.
Topic:: Security, Politics, War, History, Economy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Caribbean

14063. National Development Bank – BNDES and New Development Bank – NDB: a strategic partnership for development and sustainability?

Author:: Maria Elena Rodriguez Ortiz and Paz Andrés Sáenz De Santa María
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:: The precedence afforded in recent decades to environmental issues and to the centrality of a sustainable development agenda has led financial institutions to redefine and redirect their funding as well as their institutional and market arrangements to contribute towards balanced and inclusive development, such as strategies to support national environmental targets that will secure the sustainable development goals. This research will therefore explore some elements that underline the relation between the NDB and the BNDES, the Brazilian Development Bank, which can be considered one of the main agencies implementing funding geared for Brazil, with various joint projects approved.
Topic:: Development, Environment, Partnerships, Banks, Sustainability, and BRICS
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

14064. Ching Shih and the Pirates of the South China Coast: Shifting Alliances, Strategy, and Reputational Racketeering at the Start of the 19th Century

Author:: Charlie Harris and Christopher McKenna
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Oxford Centre for Global History
Abstract:: At the end of the 18th century, China’s coastal Kwangtung Province was a pirate’s dream. Colonial cargo ships sailed along Kwangtung’s coastline transporting increasingly valuable goods ripe for liberation. Among the countless waterways that drained into the South China Sea, fugitives could easily find shelter, and bandits could easily prepare an ambush. Chinese authorities found the surrounding archipelago of roughly 700 islands impossible to explore, providing the pirates further cover. Locals described this maze of canals, rivers, estuaries, and deltas that connected with the ocean, the ‘inner sea’. Outsiders often ran aground while pursuing or fleeing the pirates, who had grown up plying its labyrinthine waters. Looking further inland, a mountain range separated Kwangtung geographically and economically from the rest of China, acting as a buffer against easy intervention by the Chinese Emperor. As a last resort, the pirates could also quickly flee west across the national border into Vietnam.
Topic:: History, Piracy, Capitalism, Alliance, Trade, and Reputation
Political Geography:: Asia and South China Sea

14065. Colonial Legacies in Syrian Nationality Law and the Risk of Statelessness

Author:: Malak Benslama-Dabdoub
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The millions of Syrians born or living in exile as a result of the ongoing conflict has dramatically increased the number of people from Syria with no nationality. In this regard, Syrian nationality law has been criticised for containing discriminatory provisions and failing to address the risk of statelessness. Nonetheless, the responsibility of colonialism in creating such discrimination has been largely overlooked. One decade after the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, this article looks back at the colonial roots of Syrian legislation governing nationality. Through a critical legal and historical analysis, it reveals the hidden colonial legacies of Syrian citizenship, by highlighting the responsibility of European colonial powers in introducing gender-based discrimination in domestic legislation, rendering Kurds and Palestinians stateless, and creating the practice of arbitrary denationalisation. This paper ends with a call for more research on colonial legacies within citizenship and statelessness studies.
Topic:: Law, Colonialism, Stateless Population, and Nationality
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

14066. People's Right to a Nationality and the Eradication of Statelessness in Africa

Author:: Darren Ekema Equmbue Monono
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The right to nationality, enshrined in art 15 of the Universal Declaration on Human Rights, is absent in the 1981 African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights, known as the Banjul Charter. On-going efforts by African institutions to address this gap, with a view to eradicating statelessness in the continent have, however, focused on the right to nationality as an individual right. This has undermined the spirit of the Banjul Charter, which consecrates peoples’ rights as an African specificity. This article highlights the Banjul-led African human rights system and its specificities of human rights, particularly with regard to collective community and peoples’ rights. Based on the recognition and communitarian theories, it examines different concepts related to collective rights and highlights the manifestation of peoples’ rights in African case law. It then analyses the nexus between peoples’ rights to nationality and statelessness in the continent. It concludes that the eradication of statelessness by 2024 in Africa cannot be effective unless the focus is on peoples’ collective rights to nationality.
Topic:: Human Rights, Citizenship, Stateless Population, and Nationality
Political Geography:: Africa

14067. Breaking the Presumption That Applicants of Statelessness Determination Procedures Are Foreign

Author:: Paola Pelletier Quinones
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: This article considers the situation of those who apply for a determination of their status as a stateless person but could, nonetheless, be nationals of the state in which they apply. Cases of in situ statelessness provide the most opportunity for the identification of these situations. After having identified 23 formal Statelessness Determination Procedures (‘SDP’) adopted as of 2020 from 23 countries, it is conclusive that these norms presume the applicant is foreign. However, eight countries have been mapped with safeguards in their SDP norms recognising the possibility that there could be identified applicants who may be nationals and what to do in cases of doubt. These safeguards are adopted by four countries in the Americas (Costa Rica, Panama, Paraguay and Argentina) and four countries in Europe (Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and Turkey). These constitute good practices that should be taken into consideration by further SDP norms adopted in the future, modifications of current SDP norms and statistics. This issue constitutes a ‘red flag’ for raising awareness of discriminatory state policies that assume stateless applicants are foreign and should receive second-class citizenship (naturalization), rather than refer the case to the corresponding national civil registry authorities and facilitate the access to nationality. The objective of this article has not yet been analysed by doctrine or the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
Topic:: United Nations, Refugees, Identity, Stateless Population, and Nationality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14068. TP v Minister of Home Affairs (Sentence No 9140, 22 April 2014) (Tribunal of Rome)

Author:: Paolo Farci
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: There are two procedures to determine statelessness in Italy. One is under the competence of the Ministry of the Interior, which can certify, pursuant to the administrative procedure under art 17 of Decree of the President of the Republic No 572,1 the statelessness of applicants who are able to show: (a) a birth certificate; (b) documentation relating to residence in Italy; and (c) any document suitable for demonstrating statelessness. The other procedure is under the competence of the civil courts.2 This judicial procedure does not require applicants to provide evidence of their lawful status or residence and thus, it is the route followed by most stateless persons.3 The present case, TP v Minister of Home Affairs,4 concerns the latter route to statelessness determination and involves TP’s application to the Tribunal of Rome to recognise his status as a stateless person. This case represents an unusual example of a court using its inquisitorial powers to seek evidence in support of its ruling and, as such, it set a judicial precedent, which can assist the determination of similar proceedings. It was also the first time that a court found the Government of India’s practice regarding the treatment of Tibetans born in India to Tibetan parents amounted to a denial of nationality
Topic:: Law, Courts, Stateless Population, and Nationality
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

14069. Towards a Stateless Standpoint Epistemology

Author:: Haqqi Bahram
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Opening the discussion about epistemology in statelessness research, this commentary advocates for a stateless standpoint epistemology grounded in experiences of the stateless, their collective intersubjectivities and their inalienable epistemic agency. By interrogating how and what knowledge is produced on the issue, I argue that stateless standpoint epistemology is an invitation to realign our knowledge of statelessness vis-à-vis the accepted citizenist modes of knowledge. While such an epistemology may need time to take its legitimate place within statelessness research, the mission can start already by acknowledging the epistemic agency of the stateless, supporting emerging stateless researchers and denouncing extractive research practices that render naturalised knowledge on and about the stateless. This recognition is needed at all levels of research carried out with the stateless, not only for the significant and transformative role that thestateless standpoint epistemology can play, but also for research to be truly a venue for epistemic justice in the face of the injustice created by world structures of citizenship.
Topic:: Citizenship, Research, Justice, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14070. Statelessness and COVID-19

Author:: Jamie Liew
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Throughout the past year and a half, we have witnessed how no person or community on this planet has been untouched by COVID-19. There are countless reports about the differential experiences that various communities face in access to healthcare but also how some public health measures meant to stem its spread may actually be harming particular persons. The pandemic has put into sharp focus the inequities and the gaping fractures in societies all over the world. Moreover, the pandemic has made many realise that we cannot ignore the marginalised in our community given the interconnectedness of our existence. This issue’s critique and commentary part presents a snapshot of how some stateless persons are coping during the pandemic but also features the work of grassroots organisations and emerging researchers. We take a look at five stateless communities: the Rohingya in Bangladesh;1 LGBTQ+ undocumented in Brazil;2those seeking reproductive healthcare in Canada;3 the Bidoon in Kuwait;4 and the stateless in Sabah, Malaysia
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Bangladesh, Malaysia, Middle East, Canada, Asia, Kuwait, Brazil, South America, and North America

14071. COVID-19 and the Bidoon in Kuwait

Author:: Areej Alshammiry
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: This piece outlines some of the conditions that the Bidoon(Kuwait’s stateless population) have experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.1 As a former stateless Bidoon and a researcher settled in Canada, I have utilised my community connections in Kuwait to inform my writing. The information in this article is gathered from speaking with at least eight Bidoon activists and stateless persons. I chose to keep their names anonymous for their safety. This work would not be possible without their contributions. The exact number of the Bidoon is unavailable due to the contested nature of the statistics provided by the government. However, differing sources agree that this population is currently over 100,000 in Kuwait, excluding those who have migrated or have lived in exile since the 1990s.2 The Bidoon are indigenous to the Arabian Peninsula but were made stateless after the formation of the Kuwaiti state in the 1960s. The in situ stateless are prohibited from accessing many social services (including public education, proper healthcare, employment, documentation, subsidies and pension plans) and other basic human needs offered to citizens.3 The consequences of such deprivations are more severe for stateless people during a global crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic. p
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

14072. Reaching Stateless, Undocumented and Migrant Communities during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Mary Anne K. Baltazar and Amanda R. Cheong
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: In May 2020, the United Nations Refugee Agency issued a statement emphasising the particular vulnerabilities faced by stateless populations during the global COVID-19 crisis. In stating that ‘nobody can be protected unless everybody is included, and that means including often invisible, stateless populations’,1 UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi highlighted two issues: 1) COVID-19 has not only exposed, but has moreover exacerbated existing inequalities, including those operating along the dimension of legal status; and 2) the protracted exclusion of stateless peoples may undermine governments’ efforts to protect the health of their populations’ recognisedcitizens. Grandi’s commentsecho recommendations from the World Health Organization and other international bodies that governments ‘leave no one behind’ in their responses to COVID-19.2 Yet, in many contexts, stateless persons and others who are legally marginalised have not adequately been factored into policies for managing COVID-19.Such realities are all too apparent in Malaysia, which is home to a significant, albeit unknown, number of stateless persons, irregular migrants and their descendants. Statelessness impacts a diverse cross-section of the Malaysian population and is a status not exclusive to migrants. Rather, statelessness is ‘homegrown’ in Malaysia, affecting generations of people who were born and raised in the country, but for various reasons are nevertheless denied political membership.3 The majority of stateless and undocumented persons in Malaysia live in the state of Sabah, East Malaysia, and are predominantly composed of people of Indonesian and Filipino descent who are excluded from a range of basic rights and protections, including freedom from arbitrary detention and deportation, education and healthcare.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Stateless Population, and Migrants
Political Geography:: Malaysia and Asia

14073. Access to Abortion for Undocumented Persons during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Frederique Chabot
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Abstract:: COMMENTARYACCESS TO ABORTION FOR UNDOCUMENTED PERSONS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMICFRÉDÉRIQUE CHABOT*Action Canada for Sexual Health and Rights (‘Action Canada’) is a national organisation committed to advancing and upholding sexual and reproductive health and rights in Canada and globally. Building on the 50-year legacy of the organisations that formed Action Canada, we work to promote health, equity, wellbeing and rights related to sexuality and reproductive health to advance progressive policies on access to abortion, stigma-free healthcare, gender equality, LGBTQ+ rights and inclusive sex-ed, among other issues that intersect with bodily autonomy, gender, sexuality and reproduction.In March 2020, as the world quickly pivoted towards a pandemic response, Action Canada connected with partners across the country to monitor shifting needs and how providers of sexual and reproductive health services were adaptingto this novel situation in Canada. We saw some concerning gaps in services leading to a disproportionate impact on stateless and undocumented persons.1Action Canada’s activities include the operation of a 24-hour toll-free pregnancy information and referral service — the Access Line — paired with a national abortion fund to ensure those who face barriers can access abortion care. Calls to the Access Line more than doubled in the first months of 2020. Callers were looking for ways to access safe abortions during the pandemic. Conference calls with our network of sexual health centres across the country, surveys to partners and a variety of national organisations revealed concerning trends in relation to stateless persons and those with precarious immigration status and their ability to access sexual and reproductive health care.
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Reproductive Rights, Reproductive Health, Stateless Population, Undocumented Population, and Abortion
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

14074. COVID-19 in Cox's Bazar Pandemic Narratives from the World's Largest Refugee Camp

Author:: Yuriko Cowper-Smith
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Conditions in the camps have changed significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, and Rohingya refugees face intensified challenges. As outlined, the lack of sustainability regarding food and water distribution is acutely apparent. Without suitable rations or the ability to supplement rations, refugees cannot fulfil their nutritional needs. Through the new requirements which necessitate staying close to home or indoors for long periods, the existing housing has been exposed as being less than adequate. Appropriate healthcare is more critical, and other services, such as education, are needed to sustain young refugees’ wellbeing. As in all communities, reliable information is vital to lessen the impacts of rumours and misinformation, which cause fear. Finally, gender-based inequities are aggravated by the tenuous situation.Concerning the camps, the pandemic blatantly reveals that the camps urgently require a long-term political solution. Currently, Bangladesh does not issue exit visas to Rohingya refugees, and many refugees do not hold official refugee status. This means that they cannot leave Bangladesh to be resettled in a third country. At the same time, safe repatriation is not an option due to the ongoing coup d’état and the likelihood of continued persecution upon return. This impasse, heightened by the pandemic, demonstrates that the Rohingya communities in the camps need to be able to access more permanent solutions to their plight within-country or have the option to be resettled abroad.
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Rohingya, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

14075. Surviving Overlapping Precarity in a 'Gigantic Hellhole' A Case Study of Venezuelan LGBTQI+ Asylum Seekers and Undocument Migrant in Brazil amid COVID-19

Author:: Yvonne Su, Tyler Valiquette, and Yuriko Cowper-Smith
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: As COVID-19 infection rates grew exponentially in Latin America, countries closed their borders in an attempt to stop the virus. But such measures have put migrants, asylum seekers and other forcibly displaced persons at more risk. For highly precarious groups, such as Venezuelan migrants and asylum seekers in Brazil, who were already facing a multitude of challenges before the pandemic, COVID-19 is multiplying the threats.
Topic:: LGBT+, Public Health, Asylum, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Venezuela

14076. 'Humanising' Statelessness through an Artistic Approach

Author:: Md Mizanur Rahman
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: In this article I critically examine an art-based approach to statelessness in institutional settings, to show how art can produce alternative insights on statelessness. Drawing from ethnographic observation, I show how an art-based approach tries to go beyond the predominant legalistic and political frames and representations of statelessness, but stay married to the same legal and political discourses. I found the art-based approaches observed do not subscribe to the idea that statelessness is only a legal anomaly and instead emphasise the creation of empathy for stateless individuals or groups. This humanises statelessness by showing their human vulnerability and creatively recognising their hope and agency. Regardless, artistic approaches can struggle to challenge the legalistic and political nature of the problem. It remains a question whether such approaches are appropriately promoting the views, perceptions and feelings of stateless persons themselves, as their participation in creating such art projects are minimal. As such, I argue for an ‘ethnographic turn in art practices’, which can ensure the participation of stateless people in the process of creating and demonstrating art. I believe this ‘turn’ could play a crucial role in the development of statelessness studies.
Topic:: Arts, Culture, Law, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14077. The Great Illusion: Foreign Policy Advocacy and the Problem of Knowledge

Author:: Claes G. Ryn
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Humanitas
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: An odd-sounding title? Bewildering, no doubt, to foreign-policy scholars and activists used to the nomenclature and intellectual emphases of their fields and subfields. But life defies academic and professional boundaries, as does the subject of this article. The following inter-disciplinary examination of a dubious but common notion of persuasion could not be more germane to the study of foreign policy, and yet the problem in question is not being addressed by those most directly concerned. This article will, after introducing the topic of advocacy—specifically, in an area of foreign affairs—give reasons why a widely shared understanding of knowledge and persuasion needs to be reconsidered. If we use measures of quantity and financial expenditure, a very large and important role is being played in American public life by intellectual activism intended to influence public debate and government policy. The vast array of advocacy organizations in the nation’s capital is merely the tip of an iceberg. Enormous sums are spent in what may be called the persuasion or advocacy business. Funders act on the assumption that target audiences can be affected through position papers, policy studies, public events, op-eds, and similar agitation.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Governance, and Advocacy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14078. Church of Woke: Next American Religion?

Author:: Michael Vlahos
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Humanitas
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: What does it mean to be woke? First and foremost, “woke” is a religious signal that you have heard the Good News and Seen the Light. Awakening means both witnessing revealed truth and experiencing spiritual transformation. Today this has taken the form of a collective enunciation: Of a new national church, reformed and transformed, to replace the original American sect, which is wicked and corrupted. In simple, practical terms, the Church of Woke is pledged to the destruction of Racism, Patriarchy, and Heteronormativity. The original national religion—often called American Exceptionalism—and the Church of Woke are locked in a victory-or-death struggle. To understand this, two points are essential. First: America is a religion. American life and politics function in a religious milieu.[1] That should not surprise. In 1967, American sociologist Robert Bellah declared a national “civil religion”[2]—yet “civil religion” is a pleonasm. Greek “politics” and Roman “civil” both refer to the city, the national community of Antiquity. Hence today, in our national city, all citizens are part of an American religious congregation. Second, the full faith conversion of an empire is a transformation. Our distant past records just such a shift. 1700 years ago an entire civilization—the sacred world of the Greco-Roman Mundus[3]—was overthrown and replaced by something new. This transformation was the work of three generations, from 313-380. The first generation converted a Roman emperor who declared tolerance toward Christians. The second marched steadily toward the persecution of “pagans.” In the third generation there was a counter-coup by the apostate emperor Julian. He failed. What followed was the total proscription of all pagans (or Hellénikos). Likewise, the Church of Woke has began its Long March to transform American life in the mid-1960s. Like Christianity, it has burrowed deeply into elite society and the institutions of state power. Now we are locked in a culminating phase. The third generation of Woke—true to Late Roman antecedents—must cast down the Pantheon of American Exceptionalism, of Founders and Heroes, establishing a new divine order that will wash away America’s sins[4] of Racism, Patriarchy, and Heteronormativity. What follows puts Late Antiquity and Today’s world side-by-side. The reason to do this is compelling. Simply, we are facing a potential civilizational discontinuity.
Topic:: Religion, Culture, Racism, Heteronormativity, and Patriarchy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14079. “The Same Procedure as Every Year”: U.S. Counterterrorism Policy since 9/11

Author:: Dorle Hellmuth
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Humanitas
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: The quote above refers to the recurring dialogue between Miss Sophie, a sophisticated English lady, and her butler James in a British comedy sketch from 1963. Miss Sophie every year celebrates her birthday by holding a festive dinner for her friends, Mr. Pomeroy, Mr. Winterbottom, Sir Toby, and Admiral von Schneider. Unfortunately, Miss Sophie has long outlived all her friends, so she is the only one seated at the table; her guests are represented by her butler James, who ends up waiting on the imaginary guests and consuming all of their alcoholic beverages while toasting Miss Sophie. All four courses of the dinner follow the same pattern: Miss Sophie will choose the beverage that best fits with the course, followed by James asking, “The same procedure as last year, Miss Sophie?” and Miss Sophie answering, “The same procedure as every year, James!” The exchange might also be used to describe U.S. counter-terrorism strategy since the 9/11 attacks. Even though Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump could not be more different in terms of their political outlooks, personalities, and leadership styles, there has been a remarkable continuity in their approaches. Since 9/11, U.S. counter-terrorism policies have focused on externalizing the terrorism threat, designed to prevent the enemy from coming close to the U.S. homeland, by means of border security and surveillance measures, and tie them up offshore, either on far away battlefields, at Guantanamo Bay detention camp, or in other overseas prisons.
Topic:: Security, Counter-terrorism, Leadership, 9/11, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14080. Was Irving Babbitt an Educational Counterrevolutionist?

Author:: Eric Adler
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Humanitas
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: Admirers of the work of Irving Babbitt (1865-1933), the chief figure associated with an informal school of literary and social criticism called New Humanism, have long recognized that many of Babbitt’s critics have failed to take seriously—or even to understand—his ideas. According to the political philosopher Claes Ryn, for example, even during Babbitt’s lifetime “reckless distortions of his ideas gained wide currency.” The caustic debates surrounding New Humanism that took place in the early decades of the twentieth century, it seems, encouraged critics to contribute tendentious and careless appraisals of Babbitt’s work. Such partisan and misleading critiques continue to influence assessments of Babbitt today. The one hundredth anniversary of Rousseau and Romanticism, arguably the author’s quintessential monograph, provides an excellent opportunity to revisit assumptions about Babbitt’s ideas. This article will make the case that some scholars of American higher education have proved especially egregious distorters of Babbitt’s thought.
Topic:: Education, Intelligence, Literature, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14081. American Statesmanship: Contrasting Views of Leadership

Author:: Michael P. Federici
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Humanitas
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: As George Washington contemplated attending the Constitutional Convention in 1787, he worried that if the meeting failed it would stain his reputation and jeopardize his place as father of the American republic. Given the support for and failures of the Articles of Confederation, Washington had good reason to worry that either the convention would not produce an alternative to the Articles or that it would produce one that was as ineffective and short-lived. However much Washington may have been motivated by vanity, he was predisposed to expect that failure was a common outcome of politics, in some cases because providence or fate controlled the outcome, not human agency. In instances when and to the degree that outcomes depended on human agency, Washington knew that human beings were prone to vices that were contrary to the higher ends of politics. Thus, he was not inclined to overestimate the possibilities of politics even though he had reasons to believe that providence was on his side
Topic:: Security, Development, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14082. History, Social Science, and the ‘Literary Conscience’

Author:: Richard Jordan
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Humanitas
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: As social science has grown more sophisticated, so has its awareness of its own methodological shortcomings. Many of the leading journals publish extensively (sometimes, exclusively) on new devices to circumvent these difficulties. At least some social scientists, though, seem aware that they will never devise mathematical tools capable of overcoming certain ceilings on their knowledge. There is an increasing demand for other ways to ask and answer questions. As the social sciences knock vainly against these ceilings—and as they dwindle into increasing policy irrelevance—more humanistic scholars recommend a return to history. This remedy, though, is incomplete. The old saw that “those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it” has hidden history’s most difficult problem: its lessons are not obvious. History is too contingent, and its cases too few, for the states-man to derive general lessons with any confidence. The statesman must learn from it, but what he must learn is not often clear.
Topic:: Intelligence, History, Literature, and Social Science
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14083. Successful Failure in Public Policy Work

Author:: Matt Andrews
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: It matters if public policies succeed in solving societal problems, but a dominant narrative holds that policies fail ‘often’. A large-sample study discussed in this paper suggests that this is not accurate, however. The most common policy result in this study is more ambiguous—what I call ‘successful failure’. Such result is achieved when a policy delivers enough low-level, short-term product to promise success, but ultimately (and repeatedly) fails to contribute to sustained highlevel, long-term impact (addressing the problems citizens care about). Such ‘successful failure’ is endemic to public policy work, and a more pernicious result than outright failure: It allows policy design and implementation actors to associate with incomplete near-run success but insulate themselves from future failure (which they blame on factors and actors beyond their control) and simultaneously enjoy repeated demand for work (because problems are never really solved.
Topic:: Government, Public Policy, and Problem Solving
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14084. New Avenues for Colombia’s Internationalization: Trade in Tasks

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann and Sebastian Bustos
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: One of the consequences of COVID-19 is the recognition that many tasks can be done from home. But anything that can done remotely, can be done from abroad. Given large salary differences between white collar workers across countries, it would make sense for value chains to try to exploit them. This opens an opportunity for Colombia to further promote its integration into the world global value chains and access new markets. This paper explores the possibility of exporting teleworkable services from Colombia. The goal is to provide useful information to guide strategic interventions to speed-up the development of such service industries in Colombia. We first introduce a definition of teleworkable jobs and describe its occupations and industries along different dimensions. We show that there are many teleworkable jobs in the US, representing a significant share of industry costs. Then, we show that many industries intensive in teleworkable jobs are currently traded across borders. To quantify Colombia’s advantage providing teleworkable services, we study the cost structure of industries and quantify the potential savings in overall costs if the tasks were performed by Colombians. Given Colombia’s current presence and the density around teleworkable industries we can calculate a proxy of the latent advantage in teleworkable services. We propose an index that summarize these dimensions and rank the potential gains from including telework from Colombia in an industry. We end with a set of policy recommendations to move this agenda forward.
Topic:: Human Capital, COVID-19, Labor Market, Skills, and Telework
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

14085. Afghanistan: What Just Happened? What Comes Next?

Author:: Carl Conetta
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: in short order, a 20-year $1.2 trillion US effort at nation-building evaporated, disintegrated, went up in smoke. And while unreconstructed interventionists pummel President Biden for surrendering Afghanistan, the truth is that we never had it. What we held instead was a hollow construct of our own imagination and creation – a client pseudo-state. And when it was finally and fully tested, it (for the most part) threw down its arms and ran away. In a sense, the sudden collapse of Kabul’s government and security services provides the surest litmus test of America’s 20-year enterprise in Afghanistan. It tells us that coercive nation-building by a foreign power – indeed, an alien power – is an impossible mission. Outsiders lack the knowledge, indigenous roots, legitimacy, and degree of interest to succeed against local resistance. Their very presence is provocative, especially given differences of language, religion, and culture. It’s as likely to spur resistance as it is to quell it. At the same time, such interventions risk becoming intractable given domestic political dynamics and Washington’s fixation on preserving its superpower reputation, its claim to being the “indispensable power”.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Taliban, Conflict, and Military
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

14086. Peace Through Food: Ending the Hunger-Instability Nexus

Author:: Kelly M. McFarland
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:: In the twentieth century, humankind made phenomenal steps to increase food production. But today, complex and interrelated issues drive an increase in food insecurity globally, and propel conflict, migration, and human insecurity. Nearly a billion people, at a minimum, are malnourished or suffer the pains of hunger—while the world wastes a third of food produced. This pain, or the fear of it, drives political instability and conflict as people seek reliable access to food. Adverse climate events, poor resource management, disease outbreaks, breakdowns in distribution, and profit-driven research and development, among other factors, have led to structural imbalances and inequities in the food system, which limit consistent access to nutrition for an increasing number of people. In spring 2021, the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy convened a series of working group meetings with participants representing academia, think tanks, government, international organizations, NGOs, and the private sector. The group mapped out the current state of global food systems, discussed the relationship between hunger and conflict, and sought ways to establish food security as a means to promote stability and end conflict. Ultimately, an end to food insecurity requires three strands of policymaking: re-envision food security as a basic human right; re-think universal food security as a core component of stability and peace; and reform the global food system and distribution networks to address these shifts. Governments, NGOs, international organizations, and the private sector have already provided a foundation, but it is not yet sufficient to address the issue moving forward.
Topic:: Food, Food Security, Conflict, Peace, and Instability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14087. Iranian Illicit Procurement Scheme to Acquire Controlled Spectrometry Systems Busted

Author:: Spencer Faragasso and Sarah Burkhard
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: On September 9, 2021, the German Federal Prosecutors Office issued an arrest warrant for a German-Iranian citizen, Alexander J., who is accused of illegally exporting a multitude of laboratory equipment, including four spectrometers, in three separate cases, exports that appear to have also violated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).1 The total value of all the goods exported to Iran is 1.1 million euros. The defendant, Alexander J., is accused of violating the Foreign Trade Act (AWG) and Regulation (EU) No. 267/2012 of March 23, 2012, as amended in October 2015 in response to the establishment of a special Iranian procurement channel in the JCPOA, which places restrictive measures on certain Iranian entities and equipment for export (and related activities, such as brokering). In the first two cases, Alexander J. is alleged to have exported items to an Iranian national whose Iran-based companies were EU-sanctioned front companies procuring laboratory equipment for Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs at the time. Alexander J. further supplied the sanctioned entity with two spectrometers listed in Annex II of this EU regulation, which lists items that are not on the EU dual-use control list (Regulation (EC) No 428/2009 of 5 May 2009) but that could contribute to sensitive activities, including enrichment-related activities, reprocessing or heavy-water-related activities.2 These items require a license on a case-by-case basis. In addition, Alexander J. violated the regulation by providing goods to an embargoed entity. In the third case, Alexander J. exported two listed spectrometers to a different, unspecified Iranian entity, also without the required license.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Procurement
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

14088. Soldiers of End-Times: Assessing the Military Effectiveness of the Islamic State

Author:: Ido Levy
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The IS military project led not only to the announcement of a “caliphate,” but to the proliferation of jihadist franchises that devastated countries, displaced millions, and killed tens of thousands. In 2014, the Islamic State shocked the world when it defeated national armies on the battlefield and seized large swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria. The group’s military success can be traced to four key variables: organizational innovation, shaping operations, will to fight, and a knack for retaining the initiative. The IS military project led not only to the declaration of a “caliphate,” but to the proliferation of jihadist franchises that devastated countries, displaced millions, and killed tens of thousands. Yet the group’s weaknesses ultimately led to the collapse of its territorial achievement. Expert Ido Levy begins this pioneering study by surveying jihadist warfare from the 1970s to the present. He then incorporates primary sources and interviews with military officers, experts, and journalists to explain how IS used conventional military capabilities to defeat larger, better-equipped state armies and conquer land in Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Philippines, and Nigeria. Anchored by four case studies—Ramadi, Kobane, Mosul, and Baghuz—the volume illuminates potential strategies to prevent a resurgence by IS or similar groups.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

14089. Beyond Forever Wars and Great Power Competition: Rethinking the U.S. Military Role in the Middle East

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: To meet future security challenges, the United States will need to reassess how it deters adversaries and conducts security force assistance in the region, while becoming more proficient in gray zone operations and information activities. Addressing cultural factors and trends such as climate change will require solutions outside the traditional national security toolkit. In the ninth in a series of TRANSITION 2021 memos, Michael Eisenstadt describes how even with a reduced military footprint, the United States can secure its interests in the Middle East while better positioning itself on the global stage. Since taking office, the Biden administration has declared that it will right-size the U.S. military presence in the Middle East and end America’s involvement in the region’s costly “forever wars” in order to focus on Great Power competition. To meet future security challenges in the Middle East, however, the United States will need to rethink how it deters adversaries and conducts security force assistance, while becoming more proficient in gray zone operations and information activities. Simultaneously, to address the structural and cultural factors that produce regional instability, along with destabilizing trends such as climate change, the United States must look outside the traditional national security toolkit. “The challenge,” the author explains, “is to develop new strategies and operational approaches that employ the military and other instruments of national power in different, more economical, and more effective ways as the attention of policymakers and U.S. force deployments increasingly shift to the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere.” TRANSITION 2021 memos by Washington Institute experts address the broad array of issues facing the Biden-Harris administration in the Middle East. These range from thematic issues, such as the region’s strategic position in the context of Great Power competition and how to most effectively elevate human rights and democracy in Middle East policy, to more discrete topics, from Arab-Israel peace diplomacy to Red Sea security to challenges and opportunities in northwest Africa. Taken as a whole, this series of memos will present a comprehensive approach for advancing U.S. interests in security and peace in this vital but volatile region.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, National Security, Military, and Competition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14090. A Sultan in Autumn: Erdogan Faces Turkey's Uncontainable Forces

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The unprecedented economic growth and personal popularity once enjoyed by the Turkish leader have given way to stagnation, a dwindling support base, and problems abroad. During his first decade in power, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan maintained his popularity by delivering unprecedented economic growth and dramatically increasing access to healthcare, education, and other essential services. But in recent years, he and his party have faced setbacks, including humiliating mayoral election losses in Istanbul, Ankara, and other major cities in 2019. At home, the once robust Turkish economy has sputtered, while abroad Erdogan must balance a perilous alliance with Russia’s Vladimir Putin against the need to maintain amicable relations with Washington. A potential refugee crisis from Syria looms as another threat. And on the political front, Erdogan can no longer count on majority support from Turkish voters, a trend driven by disillusionment among millennials, his own clumsy anti-elitist messaging, and establishment fatigue, among other factors. In this taut and compelling volume—copublished by The Washington Institute and I.B. Tauris—Soner Cagaptay lays out the mounting challenges to Erdogan’s rule. While suggesting the adaptive president may still survive politically—with undoubted costs for Turkey’s citizens, institutions, and allies—he also offers a more hopeful subtext, intimating that the country’s resilient democracy can outlast any one leader.
Topic:: Politics, Economic Growth, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

14091. Promoting Sovereignty and Accountability in Iraq: Guidelines for the Biden Administration

Author:: Bilal Wahab
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The complexity of Iraq’s challenges might prompt some U.S. officials to balk, but a constructive policy can help advance both Iraqi and American interests in areas ranging from counterterrorism to economic development. In the tenth in a series of TRANSITION 2021 memos, Bilal Wahab offers insights on the complex dynamics in today’s Iraq. When U.S. officials assess the Iraqi scene, they see intractable problems ranging from deep corruption to incessant power grabs by Iran-sponsored militias. The difficulty of dealing with these challenges might prompt some policymakers to balk at devising solutions, but a constructive Iraq policy can help advance both Iraqi and American interests in numerous areas. A more stable Iraq, for its part, could better defend itself against a resurgent Islamic State while curtailing Iranian influence. The author elaborates that Baghdad, reinforced in this way, could help “improve regional security, increase the flow of petroleum—a necessity even amid the urgent global shift toward renewable energy sources—and create economic opportunity for the country’s 40 million citizens as well as neighboring states.” TRANSITION 2021 memos by Washington Institute experts address the broad array of issues facing the Biden-Harris administration in the Middle East. These range from thematic issues, such as the region’s strategic position in the context of Great Power competition and how to most effectively elevate human rights and democracy in Middle East policy, to more discrete topics, from Arab-Israel peace diplomacy to Red Sea security to challenges and opportunities in northwest Africa. Taken as a whole, this series of memos will present a comprehensive approach for advancing U.S. interests in security and peace in this vital but volatile region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Sovereignty, Reform, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

14092. Accidental Allies: The US–Syrian Democratic Forces Partnership Against the Islamic State

Author:: Michael Knights and Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: To some, America's partnership with the SDF exemplified an economy-of-force effort that minimized U.S. casualties and wrested control of northeast Syria from the Islamic State. To others, it was a cautionary tale about a U.S. military hoodwinked into working with a terrorist group. The story of America’s military and political partnership with the Syrian Democratic Forces is a controversial one. To some, it is a shining example of an economy-of-force effort that minimized U.S. casualties, wrested control of northeast Syria from the Islamic State, and improved the area’s general political trajectory. To others, it is a cautionary tale of a U.S. military that was hoodwinked by a charismatic and capable partner closely tied to a U.S.-designated terrorist group, the Kurdistan Workers Party, with Washington deliberately averting its eyes from the strategic, political, and moral costs of the partnership. The subject deserves a neutral, data-led investigation that follows the facts wherever they lead. In this volume—copublished by The Washington Institute and I.B. Tauris—military expert Michael Knights and journalist Wladimir van Wilgenburg dive deep into the U.S. relationship with the SDF. The study benefited from intensive debates on sourcing, objectivity, and the need to probe uncomfortable issues. The findings cast light not only on the successes and shortcomings of this particular alliance, but also on how Washington might most profitably pursue “by, with, and through” operations with other forces in the future.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Terrorism, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Military
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

14093. Triangular Diplomacy: Unpacking Russia's Syria Strategy

Author:: Anna Borshchevskaya and Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Moscow has repeatedly played actors off each other to secure its own interests and keep the Assad regime in power. Sometime before July 10, the UN Security Council will vote on whether to extend the annual mandate for cross-border assistance into Syria, which now passes through a lone outpost at Bab al-Hawa. Securing this extension is essential from a humanitarian standpoint, but keeping the border open matters equally for reasons of stability, given the fragile ceasefire in Idlib. Looming over the process is the strategic mischief of Moscow, which has repeatedly played various actors in Syria off each other to secure its own geostrategic and economic interests and to keep the Assad regime in power. The Kremlin, to the latter end, has reliably vetoed Security Council resolutions that would check the Syrian regime, claiming falsely that such moves would facilitate Western incursions in the country. In this Policy Note, Russia expert Anna Borshchevskaya and recent State Department senior advisor and NSC Syria director Andrew J. Tabler examine Russian diplomatic technique and subterfuge in Syria. The authors argue that by taking a strong stand and better uniting with partners and allies, the Biden administration can cut through Moscow’s rhetoric and ultimately promote a sustainable future for Syria.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, and Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

14094. Deals, Drones, and National Will: The New Era in Turkish Power Projection

Author:: Rich Outzen
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey has recently pushed the PKK fight from its own turf and blunted challenges in northern Syria, Azerbaijan, Libya, and the Gulf, all while strengthening its defense export sector. In 2020, military observers took note when the Turkish Armed Forces employed drones to devastating effect in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus. But this technological achievement must be regarded as just one part of a revamped Turkish approach to regional power projection—a change with economic, diplomatic, strategic, reputational, and battlefield implications. In the past five years, Turkey has notched many associated successes, such as pushing the PKK fight off its own turf and blunting challenges to its interests in northern Syria, Azerbaijan, Libya, and the Gulf. Ankara has also secured significant leverage in other disputes from the Horn of Africa to the Balkans, while strengthening its defense export sector. As military expert Col. Rich Outzen, U.S. Army (Ret.), makes clear in this tightly argued Policy Note, Turkey’s power projection does not always align with U.S. interests, a reality exemplified by anti-SDF military operations and defense industry cooperation with Russia. But ending the U.S.-Turkey military alliance over such differences is neither productive nor tenable. Instead, America can seek to work with an emergent Turkey in the many cases, from Qatar to Afghanistan, where such collaboration advances U.S. strategic interests.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Weapons, Drones, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

14095. A Strategy to Contain Hezbollah: Ideas and Recommendations

Author:: Hanin Ghaddar
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since securing a parliamentary majority, the group has consistently prioritized its own interests over those of the Lebanese people through practices such as illicit drug production, sex trafficking, and the buildup of its military arsenal. When Lebanese took to the streets in October 2019 to rail against government corruption, a lack of accountability, and runaway consumer prices, they coalesced around the chant “All of them!”—meaning that every political actor in the country held some blame for the national meltdown. But the slogan glossed over the important fact that one group in particular, Hezbollah, deserved the most blame. Since notching a parliamentary majority in 2018, the Iran-backed military-political organization has consistently prioritized its own interests over those of the Lebanese people through practices such as illicit drug production, sex trafficking, and—of course—the buildup of its military arsenal. In this Policy Note, Hanin Ghaddar, an expert on Lebanon who worked for years as a journalist in the country, explains why Hezbollah poses such a menace and what the international community can do about it. Foremost, she recommends that the United States and its partners intensify pressure on Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsor while simultaneously engaging with a new generation of Lebanese who want to free themselves from the group’s stranglehold.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Democracy, Hezbollah, and Shia
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Lebanon

14096. A New Start for the U.S. on Mideast Democracy and Human Rights

Author:: David Pollock and Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a region where publics are clamoring for healthcare, housing, jobs, and freedom of expression, progress toward electoral democracy need not always be the top priority. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In this inaugural essay, David Pollock and Robert Satloff offer broad guidelines for a reimagined American democracy and human rights agenda in the region. At its core is a call for recognizing the many paths to improving human rights, accountable governance, and participatory democracy and their connection to a range of U.S. interests. Progress toward electoral democracy need not always be the top priority in an arena where regional publics are clamoring for basic rights such as healthcare, housing, jobs, and freedom of expression.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Politics, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

14097. Washington and the Next Arab Spring

Author:: Sarah Feuer and David Schenker
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Should protests grow more destabilizing, the United States will need to balance its values and interests regarding bilateral ties, the popular movement in question, broader regional dynamics, and competition with Russia or China. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. Afghanistan withdrawal, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the second essay of the series, Sarah Feuer, David Schenker, and their coauthors discuss the resurgence of protest activity across the region, the result of deteriorating economic circumstances and abysmal governance, worsened by the Covid-19 pandemic. Should protests become more destabilizing, the authors explain, the United States—before taking any action—will need to carefully balance its values and interests with respect to bilateral ties, the protest movement in question, broader regional dynamics, and competition with Russia or China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, Arab Spring, Protests, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Middle East, and United States of America

14098. A Vanishing West in the Middle East: The Recent History of U.S.-Europe Cooperation in the Region

Author:: Charles Thépaut
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: To encourage a new multilateralism, Europe will need to gain credibility on hard security matters, the United States will need to reimagine how it deals with allies, and both will need to figure out when to let Middle East countries handle Middle East problems. Since the end of the Cold War, developments in the Middle East have frequently caused tension between the United States and Europe, from the 2003 invasion of Iraq to the Arab uprisings of 2011 and Washington’s 2018 decision to exit the Iran nuclear deal. Today, the Biden administration is reasserting its desire to reduce America’s regional footprint, even as its predecessors struggled to realize a similar goal. At the same time, the United States and Europe share an interest in a stable Middle East where governments keep energy supplies steady and contain threats posed by jihadism and mass refugee flows. In this illuminating book—copublished by The Washington Institute and I.B. Tauris—French diplomat Charles Thépaut examines thirty years of transatlantic cooperation in the region and proposes a more manageable and effective path forward. To encourage a new multilateralism, he explains, Europe will need to gain credibility on hard security matters, the United States will need to reimagine how it deals with allies, and both parties will need to figure out when to step aside and let Middle East countries handle Middle East problems. "After a decade over which the Middle East was profoundly shaken and transformed, over which U.S. foreign policy toward this region went through various revisions, and over which the transatlantic bond risked serious erosion, this book offers serious answers to questions with a bearing on the future: Is there still one ‘West,’ at least in relation to an ‘East’? What remains of the strategic interest the Middle East represents for both America and Europe? Charles Thépaut’s unique position, as a French diplomat working on the Middle East from Washington DC, gives this work irreplaceable value."
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

14099. Back to Basics: U.S.-Iraq Security Cooperation in the Post-Combat Era

Author:: Michael Knights and Alex Almeida
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Questions about the viability of the Iraqi security forces—brought into sharp focus by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—require a data-led analysis of where the forces are today and what mix of U.S., NATO, and European efforts can help them thrive in the future. The August collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces shook the world’s faith in U.S. security cooperation, prompting hard questions about similar arrangements with Iraq. In a country where the United States has been training forces for two decades, officials need straight answers. How resilient are today’s U.S.-supported Iraqi security forces, and could they operate with gradually reduced American support? What kind of near-term Iraqi force development should the coalition credibly expect to see? And how should U.S.-led security cooperation evolve after the December “transition of mission” to a non-combat role? In this urgently applicable Policy Focus, longtime ISF watchers Michael Knights and Alex Almeida provide a data-led analysis of where Iraq’s security forces are today, how they will look tomorrow, and what mixture of U.S., NATO, and European efforts can ensure the best result commensurate with American interests. The roadmap they outline shows how Baghdad can ultimately achieve enduring victory over the Islamic State and overmatch the domestic opponents of a sovereign, stable, and democratic Iraq.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Politics, Terrorism, and Shia
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

14100. A Blurred Line Between Civil Society and Terrorism: Examining Charges of NGOs Funding the PFLP

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Israeli evidence could reveal a troubling reality wherein groups publicly defend the human rights of some people while supporting acts of terrorism targeting others. On October 19, Israel designated six Palestinian NGOs as terrorist groups affiliated with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, causing a firestorm among international civil society and human rights organizations. While such action is inherently controversial, any assessment must consider the underlying evidence, which here emerged from a series of investigations pointing to massive fraud. The effort drew on various sources, including classified intelligence, seized materials, and statements made by arrested employees. And it cast light on high-profile cases such as the August 2019 murder of Israeli teen Rina Shnerb, whose killers were employed by one of the designated groups. In this groundbreaking Policy Note, counterterrorism expert Matthew Levitt closely analyzes Israel’s NGO designations. In doing so, he validates U.S., European, and international requests for an explanation, but simultaneously cautions that the evidence—if proven even partially true—could reveal a troubling reality wherein Palestinian NGOs publicly defend the human rights of some people while supporting terrorist acts against others.
Topic:: Civil Society, Terrorism, NGOs, and Palestinians
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS