Publication Year: within 5 Years - CIAO Search Results

14901. Energy price hikes: which European solutions?

Author:: Ramona Bloj
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: As energy prices rise around the world, against the backdrop of the post-Covid economic recovery, the 27 EU leaders discussed what Europe could do to ease the pressure on consumers at the European Council on 21-22 October. The increase in prices is due to a particular international context and is affecting all countries: China is facing electricity shortages in many provinces due to insufficient coal supply, and in the United States the price of natural gas has risen by more than 150% since the beginning of the year. However, this increase raises questions about Europe's energy strategy and its impact on climate objectives, just a few days before the opening of COP26 in Glasgow.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

14902. The Biden transition

Author:: Simon Serfaty
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: During the grotesque years of the Trump administration, and after its extraordinarily contested departure, the admittedly romantic idea of the United States has turned into a thing of the past—no longer the do-good democracy it used to be, but now a country unpredictably reactive rather than preventive, vindictive rather than proactive, and exclusive rather than inclusive. In June 2020, the nation’s pride reached a 20-year low, with only 42 percent of the respondents “extremely proud” to be American, down from 69 percent in 2003. And according to a Wall Street Journal poll, four Americans in five found the country “out of control.” By year’s end, aberrant talk that military force might be used, and martial law imposed, for a targeted “rerun” of the election was historically unreal but left many afraid about the future of the nation. When votes which have been counted no longer count, integrity is dismissed, character no longer matters, alternative facts are deemed real, and feeling right takes precedence over being right, then there is nothing left to hold on to. As Bertolt Brecht sarcastically suggested in 1953—time “to dissolve the people and elect another.” Throughout, the world has watched in dismay. For much of the previous century, America was the country much of the world came to rely on for its promises, a country that not only counted but one that could be counted on decisively. But now, the trust is gone: wrote former Secretary of State George Shultz on his one hundredth birthday, “a belief that what [our] nation … commits to do will, in fact be done” and what it “says will happen is, in fact, capable of being done.” A September 2020 survey by the Pew Research Center in 13 nations, all wealthy democracies, showed America’s reputation and over all confidence in its president in steady decline, often at their lowest points since these surveys began twenty years before—with more confidence in Xi Jinping (19 per cent) and Putin (23 per cent) than in Trump (16 percent). Such findings have been repeated since—en pire.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: United States of America

14903. Europe as a power, European sovereignty and strategic autonomy: a debate that is moving towards an assertive Europe

Author:: Reni Lefebvre
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: By defending a “geopolitical” Commission, The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the European Union had emerged from its economic and technocratic origins, that it was now ready to assume and strengthen its power, to measure itself against the new global balance of power. In this sense, she was responding to French President Emmanuel Macron who, since 2017, has been theorising about "European sovereignty" and advocating this call for power[1].
Topic:: Sovereignty, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe

14904. Brexit and the Irish Question

Author:: Marie-Claire Considère-Charon
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: When thinking of the Irish question, it calls to mind the partition of the island of Ireland, ratified by the Government of Ireland Act of 23 December 1920, which was intended to satisfy the aspirations of the Protestant majority in Ulster, who were in favour of keeping the province under the authority of the Crown. Partition was plotted on the basis of a sectarian calculation to separate the six predominantly Protestant counties of Ulster[1] from the overwhelmingly Catholic Republic of Ireland. It inevitably raises the issue of the border that separates the two jurisdictions, which over the last century has been a symbol of injustice for the Catholic minority and a target for republican paramilitary groups, particularly the IRA. Thanks to the Belfast Agreement, the so-called Good Friday Agreement in 1998, which was the culmination of a long peace process, one might have assumed that the issue of the Irish border would not surface in debate again. But this did not take into account the extent of the nationalist and Europhobic current in England, which would lead to the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union by referendum on 23 June 2016.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Brexit, and Borders
Political Geography:: Europe, Ireland, and Northern Ireland

14905. The Union’s external borders: a European debate revisited

Author:: Stefanie Buzmaniuk
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The management of the European Union's external borders is the subject of passionate debate in the European Parliament hemicycle and in many different media in Europe. It also features in a decision made by the European Court of Justice (CJEU) on December 17th 2020 stating that Hungary had been violating European law by turning back migrants as of 2015. Following the latest terrorist attacks on European soil, particularly in France and Austria in the autumn of 2020, the question of European cooperation in the protection of external borders has once again came to the fore. The work of Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, has moreover been the focus of a debate regarding its practices and also its role in "pushbacks", the illegal refoulement of migrants. These debates are taking place just as Frontex is in full “metamorphosis”, as suggested by its Executive Director Fabrice Leggeri, since the Agency’s budget has increased significantly and its remit progressively strengthened. In a profoundly symbolic gesture, on 11th January 2021, Frontex unveiled its first official uniform: The Agency’s personnel will now be armed, a first in the Union’s history. It therefore seems appropriate to analyse in depth the complexities involved in managing the Union's external borders and to take a detailed look at Frontex's work. What meaning do these borders, which are primarily national in nature, have for the Union as a whole? What is the importance of an Agency like Frontex? Which challenges does it face in its mission? How can trust be restored between the Agency, the European institutions, the Member States, European citizens and migrants who wish to cross the Union's borders? And, more importantly, how do we reconcile the protection of human rights with the protection of borders?
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, European Union, and Borders
Political Geography:: Europe

14906. Women’s Europe

Author:: Ramona Bloj
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Equality between men and women in the European Union is provided for in Article 119 of the Treaty of Rome. While substantial progress has been made since 1957, making Europe the continent where women live best and where their numbers in the institutions are among the highest in the world, significant disparities persist between Member States. Further steps still need to be taken, especially as the pandemic has accentuated inequalities and differences, illustrating the efforts that still need to be made to achieve true equality between men and women.
Topic:: Gender Issues, European Union, Women, Institutions, COVID-19, and Equality
Political Geography:: Europe

14907. A year of electoral uncertainty Germany turns the page on Merkel

Author:: Frank Baasner and Stefan Seidendorf
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Angela Merkel, at the head of the German government since 2005, will leave her position after the federal elections on 26 September. While this departure seems to be a foregone conclusion, the election also heralds other, more structural changes, which will affect even the tectonics of the deep forces of the German political system. After the weeklong psychodrama in which the CDU-CSU was unable to reach a consensual agreement on its candidate to succeed Angela Merkel, the election on 26 September could very well represent a major political turning point. With six important regional elections in 2021[1], the changes underway have the potential to reshape the country's political landscape in a major way. The consequences for the 'stability' that has characterised the German political system since 1949, however, remain difficult to analyse.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

14908. How to avoid the repetition of history: the case of North Korea

Author:: Song Young Gil
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: To most European audiences, the issue of the North Korean nuclear programme and its intercontinental ballistic missile development is a neglected topic that is not frequently covered by the international news unless there has been a severe provocation. Most often, North Korea is seen as a country with a young, ruthless leader, and a people who show cult-like support to its regime.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, History, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

14909. Green Hydrogen in a Circular Carbon Economy: Opportunities and Limits

Author:: Zhiyuan Fan, Emeka Richard Ochu, Sarah Braverman, Yushan Lou, Griffin Smith, Amar Bhardwaj, Jack Brouwder, Colin McCormick, and Julio Friedmann
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: As global warming mitigation and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction become increasingly urgent to counter climate change, many nations have announced net-zero emission targets as a commitment to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Low-carbon hydrogen has received renewed attention under these decarbonization frameworks as a potential low-carbon fuel and feedstock, especially for hard-to-abate sectors such as heavy-duty transportation (trucks, shipping) and heavy industries (e.g., steel, chemicals). Green hydrogen in particular, defined as hydrogen produced from water electrolysis with zero-carbon electricity, could have significant potential in helping countries transition their economies to meet climate goals. Today, green hydrogen production faces enormous challenges, including its cost and economics, infrastructure limitations, and potential increases in CO2 emissions (e.g., if produced with uncontrolled fossil power generation, which would be hydrogen but would not be green). This report, part of the Carbon Management Research Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, examines green hydrogen production and applications to understand the core challenges to its expansion at scale and the near-term opportunity to enable deployment. An analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with a varying range of assumptions, including both temporal (i.e., today versus the future) and geographical (e.g., the US, the EU, China, India, Japan) factors, anticipates emissions intensity and costs of producing green hydrogen. The authors evaluate these production costs for different scenarios as well as associated infrastructure requirements and highlight near-term market opportunities and policies to motivate development of the green hydrogen industry.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14910. Stronger International Safeguards as a Condition of Supply to Nuclear Energy Programs: Coming to Consensus in the Nuclear Suppliers Group

Author:: Matt Bowen
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Nations that are party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons but are not allowed nuclear weapons under the treaty (“non-nuclear-weapon states”) must have international safeguards applied to civil nuclear energy facilities if they pursue such programs. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) applies these safeguards and conducts inspections on nuclear energy programs, and determined in the 1990s that it needed additional capabilities to verify states were not engaging in secret (i.e., undeclared) nuclear activities. Subsequently, the IAEA developed a set of stronger safeguards measures, known as the Model Additional Protocol (“Additional Protocol”), which was approved in 1997. Today, most nations have an Additional Protocol in force, but a few dozen do not. The nations that do not may pose a concern if they pursue nuclear energy as a means of addressing energy and environmental challenges, such as decarbonization to meet climate goals. The greater reporting requirements and inspection measures in the Additional Protocol give the international community assurance that a nation’s declarations about its civil nuclear program are both correct and complete. The enhanced inspections in turn provide greater deterrence against states pursuing illicit nuclear activities. The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)—which comprises 48 governments, including those representing the major reactor vendor countries—maintains guidelines governing the export of nuclear materials, equipment, and technology. The NSG has been considering modifying those guidelines for many years to support more universal adoption of the Additional Protocol. But adoption has been hard to come by, in part because of potential disruptions to existing supply relationships given that not all countries participating in the NSG have Additional Protocols in force and some client states of countries participating in the NSG also do not have these upgraded inspections in place. There may be room for consensus building among NSG states, however, since most support requiring an Additional Protocol as a condition of supply to further the nonproliferation regime. The remaining governments may agree if measures are proffered to address challenges that have blocked acceptance to date. This commentary discusses a history of related policy developments in the NSG, examines some of the group’s roadblocks to consensus, and suggests options for making progress on adding stronger international safeguards as a condition of supply to nuclear energy programs.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14911. Oil Intensity: The Curiously Steady Decline of Oil in GDP

Author:: Christof Ruhl and Titus Erker
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Oil is the largest primary fuel, and the trajectory of oil consumption is of great concern and consequence for economic, political, and, not least, for climate change reasons. Anticipating oil prices and production from year to year is not easy; identifying even basic ingredients of aggregate demand and supply schedules, such as price or income elasticities, is notoriously difficult. It’s an additional challenge to model the structure of a market that sometimes appears to be highly cartelized, and at other times populated by a large flock of peaceful price takers. But a remarkably steady metric—and possible tool for projecting consumption into the future—has been identified in this paper: oil intensity. Oil intensity is the volume of oil consumed per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). Measured simply in barrels per dollar, it is often viewed as a broad measure of oil efficiency; it certainly demonstrates the importance of oil in a society. The efficiency of oil use has improved, in other words oil intensity has declined, over the years and decades. In 1973, for example, when oil intensity was at its zenith, the world used a little less than one barrel of oil to produce $1,000 worth of GDP (2015 prices). By 2019 (the last data set before Covid) global oil intensity was 0.43 barrel per $1,000 of global GDP—a 56% decline. Oil has become a lot less important and humanity has become more efficient in making use of it. What is worth a closer look, and is the focus of this paper reporting on oil and gas related research at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, is the pattern by which this progress has been achieved. Since 1984, oil intensity has fallen every year in an almost perfectly linear fashion: the amount of oil used per dollar of global GDP has dropped by roughly the same amount each year. Wars and revolutions, booms and busts, OPEC successes and failures, and every other monumental event in the last 35 years left their imprint on oil markets but didn’t alter oil intensity’s steady, downward crawl. This kind of regularity is very rare in any long-time trend, in economics or in energy. Although oil intensity isn’t a new topic, an attempt to explain its curiously consistent downward progress—or even any discussion about it—is hard to find in the literature. For this paper, the authors explain the trend and cross-validate its predictive potential before delving into possible reasons behind the linear decline in oil intensity. It finally extrapolates what such a continuing trend might mean for oil consumption and policies around it going forward.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and GDP
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14912. Green Giants? China’s National Oil Companies Prepare for the Energy Transition

Author:: Erica Downs
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On September 22, 2020, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, made a surprise announcement about China’s climate ambitions during remarks to the United Nations General Assembly. He stated that China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), aims to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Xi also said that China’s GHG emissions would peak before 2030, a slight revision to China’s pledge under the Paris Climate Agreement to peak emissions around 2030. China’s new climate targets spurred the country’s three major national oil companies (NOCs)—China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec Group), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)—to strengthen their climate ambitions. PetroChina (the flagship subsidiary of CNPC), which had already set a goal of achieving near-zero emissions by 2050, intends to peak its carbon emissions by 2025. Sinopec Corp. (the flagship subsidiary of Sinopec Group) also aims to peak its carbon emissions by 2025 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. CNOOC Ltd. (the flagship subsidiary of CNOOC) plans to reduce its GHG emissions by 16 percent between 2020 and 2025 and aims to peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. This report, part of the China Energy and Climate Program at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, provides a baseline for understanding how China’s NOCs are responding to climate change. It examines the activities the three companies identified as part of their emerging energy transition strategies before Xi unveiled the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets, and why they didn’t do more. The report then assesses the implications of China’s new climate ambitions for its NOCs and lays out their preparations to date for supporting Xi’s 2030 and 2060 pledges.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: China and Asia

14913. Methane Emission Controls: Redesigning EPA Regulations for Greater Efficacy

Author:: Robert Kleinberg
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Natural gas holds a critical role in the US energy economy, providing 32 percent of primary energy evenly distributed among electric power generation, industrial use, and residential and commercial consumption (LLNL 2020). As countries set targets to minimize climate change, however, widespread reliance on fossil fuels, with their attendant greenhouse gas emissions, is being scrutinized. Methane, the main constituent of natural gas, is second only to carbon dioxide in its contribution to greenhouse gas warming (Kleinberg 2020). It holds the potential to be a primary driver of global average temperature change between now and 2050—no matter what progress is made in controlling increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next thirty years (Shindell et al. 2012). Half of global methane emissions come from natural sources, such as swamps and seeps, and half from anthropogenic sources, such as agriculture and fossil fuels. Regulations curbing methane emissions from the oil and gas industry are essential to mitigating global climate change over the next three decades. In the United States, current regulations were devised at a time when the technology for the measurement of natural gas emissions was relatively immature. Comprehensive performance-based regulations were not an option, and because of this, many regulations put in place were highly prescriptive. Data show these regulations have been largely ineffective. This commentary examines the potential to reduce emissions of methane from oil and natural gas infrastructure. It begins with a brief history of natural gas regulations and the effectiveness of rulemaking, before exploring unregulated and underregulated sources of methane. This is followed by a discussion about improvements in measurement capabilities and how regulations could be used to more effectively address methane emissions. This work shows the complexities of oil and gas production do not lend themselves to prescriptive regulation. Performance-based regulation, including quantitative compliance monitoring, would engage the talents of thousands of engineers, encouraging them to solve problems using locally appropriate solutions rather than relying on a prescriptive checklist approach that cannot anticipate every eventuality. The key to performance-based regulation is accurate measurement, and this capability has improved rapidly in recent years. Aircraft-based, facility-scale measurements encompassing tens of thousands of facilities spread over tens of thousands of square kilometers are economically viable and increasingly common. Permanently installed continuously monitoring sensors show promise in detecting intermittent sources; oil field pilot studies are underway. However, aircraft- and ground-based facility-scale measurements are not compliant with the current regulatory regime, which focuses on individual components. Therefore, the current regulatory regime must be completely rethought. (A comprehensive exposition of this topic, with evidentiary support, has been submitted to the Environmental Protection Agency [Kleinberg 2021b].)
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Methane
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14914. The Global Energy Crisis: Implications of Record High Natural Gas Prices

Author:: Anne-Sophie Corbeau
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The recent spike in energy prices across the globe has led to talks of an energy crisis with far reaching repercussions as the Northern Hemisphere braces for winter. While a significant focus has been on natural gas as gas spot prices in Asia and Europe hit levels unthinkable before ($56/million British thermal unit [mmBtu], or over $320/barrel [bbl] in oil-equivalent terms), the crisis has extended well beyond gas: oil prices are rising, China and Europe are facing record coal prices, and carbon prices in Europe have reached historic levels. As gas-fired plants (or coal in some regions) are at the margin, this is also leading to record power prices in different parts of the world. These circumstances lead to immediate concerns, but also flag important potential lessons for the future. In the short term, immediate concerns include a potential gas supply and power crunch over the coming winter, the impact of record-high gas and electricity prices on end-users’ energy bills, and power shortages. For natural gas, however, the crisis may extend beyond the weather. The role of natural gas in a world looking to slash carbon emissions has been an ongoing topic of discussion, and the potential for a sustained crisis that batters consumers may have critical repercussions for the fuel longer term. Already, at least two schools of thought are emerging from the current situation that reflect the ongoing debate about natural gas: one that views this episode as further proof that the world needs to rapidly get rid of fossil fuels, including natural gas, and one that views it as proof that more gas is needed in the immediate future to satisfy growing global energy demand. Questions of security of supply and affordability are also part of the discussion, especially in a future world with a higher share of renewables but where fossil fuels are still necessary to provide flexibility and are likely to continue to set power prices at the margin until new flexibility tools such as batteries or demand-side management are developed at scale. In addition, there are concerns about another widespread gilets jaunes[1] protest movement triggered by price spikes as governments push their agenda for decarbonization. For the gas industry, it could prove to be a moment of truth. The IEA stated earlier this year that “no new oil and natural gas fields are needed in the net-zero pathway.”[2] Indeed, producers are facing increased scrutiny about future investments, including in upstream activities and liquefied natural gas (LNG), but at the same time are asked to make gas readily available when needed.[3] Meanwhile, developing countries that had been looking favorably at natural gas as a way to complement renewables and decommission coal could be deterred by these high and volatile gas prices from supporting LNG imports. The recent increase in gas prices could impact these decisions in different ways, especially if they remain high for the next few years. This commentary provides a brief overview of the current gas market and examines the potential near- and longer-term impacts for natural gas.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14915. Promoting Energy for Development in a World Accelerating to Net-Zero: Roundtable Report

Author:: Hon Xing Wong, Jonathan Elkind, Philippe Benoit, and Aashna Aggarwal
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On September 14, 2021, Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) and Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) co-hosted a high-level virtual roundtable on energy for development and climate objectives, the first of a series of discussions focusing on the intersection between these two policy priorities. Among the roundtable participants were senior leaders representing major international organizations, development finance institutions, civil society, philanthropic foundations, academia, youth activists, and energy and finance industries. Convened a week before the United Nations (UN) High-Level Dialogue on Energy—the first in 40 years—the virtual roundtable occurred at a time when the focus of many decision makers around the globe was on accelerating climate change mitigation to fulfill the goals of the Paris Agreement. Amid this sense of urgency to accelerate decarbonization, the roundtable served as a timely reminder of energy’s role in alleviating poverty and promoting growth. With 2.6 billion people (more than a third of the world’s population) lacking access to clean cooking and almost 760 million people (roughly 10 percent of the world’s population) lacking access to electricity, bridging the energy gap by 2030 should remain at the top of the global agenda.[1] Energy access is essential for economic development, especially for the 9.1–9.4 percent of the world that still lives in extreme poverty (defined as living on less than $1.90 per day).[2] Moreover, the role of energy extends beyond basic access: it is critical to generating broad-based economic growth to lift people out of poverty and enable quality healthcare, education, gender equity, food security, and other benefits enjoyed by middle-class populations worldwide. Roundtable participants discussed options to promote energy for development and climate change mitigation, considering matters of policy, finance, and technology. This report summarizes the roundtable discussion and presents participants’ key questions. The discussion occurred on a not-for-attribution basis under the Chatham House rule.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14916. The Impact of ESG on National Oil Companies

Author:: Luisa Palacios
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The rise of ESG investing—investment focused on environmental stewardship, social responsibility, and corporate governance—in the 21st century has created significant pressures on oil companies. Some shareholders of international oil companies (IOCs) have pressed them to pay closer attention to ESG goals and diversify their business models away from hydrocarbons and into other sources of energy amid efforts to address greenhouse gas emissions.[1] National oil companies (NOCs)—which currently control about 50 percent of the world’s oil production—have different corporate mandates than their IOC peers that might imply a more complicated relationship with ESG goals. NOCs are mainly owned by governments in the developing world, and thus face vastly different demands than IOCs answering to private sector shareholders.[2] But different does not mean NOCs do not or will not feel pressure to address ESG issues. Given NOCs’ significant share of global oil production—and the fact that this share may increase as IOCs diversify—the pressures they face and changes they make could have a significant impact on the future of the oil and gas industry as well as countries’ abilities to meet climate goals. During the November 2021 COP 26 meetings in Glasgow, Saudi Arabia and India became the latest countries with strong NOCs to pledge to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the next decades.[3] This commentary examines how the ESG agenda is impacting NOCs through the ecosystem of organizations and principles that have emerged from the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement as well as from investors and regulators in global financial markets. The piece then describes the three components of the ESG framework in relation to NOCs and the challenges of accurately measuring adherence to them due to insufficient standardization of metrics and the variety of reporting frameworks. Also, because environmental, social, and governance competence are not strictly related to one another, companies may be strong in some areas and weak in others, making it difficult to evaluate their ESG performance as a whole.[4] Finally, while ESG pressures are coming alongside discussions about the energy transition and climate change, ESG assessments do not evaluate companies’ energy transition plans, even if some aspects of ESG scores might provide insights about them. The commentary pays special attention to the importance of corporate governance for national oil companies in achieving overall ESG goals, given the key differences between their ownership structure and that of private sector companies working in the oil industry.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14917. Market, Policy, and Political Implications of the Global Natural Gas Crisis: Forum Report

Author:: Hon Xing Wong, Erin Blanton, and Samantha Lang
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On October 18, 2021, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) hosted a special session of the Natural Gas Forum on the global nature of the current unexpected gas crisis, which has sparked chaos in many parts of the world. A number of factors have been put forward to explain the crisis, including a faster-than-expected pandemic recovery in economic demand that has precipitated global supply chain issues, extreme weather conditions around the world, and liquified natural gas (LNG) facility outages. The forum was an opportunity for participants to discuss the underlying causes of the global gas crisis and its long-term market, policy, and political implications. The discussion started with outlooks for the winter across the European Union, Russia, the United States, and East Asia before turning to a debate over any longer-term implications of the natural gas crisis on the energy transition. The forum’s participants included policy makers and senior leaders from major international agencies, energy companies, financial institutions, civil society organizations, academia, and nongovernmental organizations. This summary of the proceeding begins with the broad takeaways of the discussion, which occurred on a non-attribution basis under the Chatham House Rule, and then delves into regional issues and the future of natural gas.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Global Markets, Gas, Renewable Energy, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14918. Advancing Corporate Procurement of Zero-Carbon Electricity in the United States: Moving from RE100 to ZC100

Author:: Melissa Lott and Bruce Phillips
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Corporate pledges to purchase renewable electricity have led to significant new solar and wind capacity investments and driven down the carbon intensity of the power sector in the United States. Participating companies have increasingly procured this power, many with a goal of procuring quantities that are equal or proportional to the amount of electricity that they consume at their facilities on an annual basis.[1] Corporate buyers can reap many benefits from renewables procurement, including hedging against power price fluctuations and enjoying positive brand association, helping them meet shareholder demands around climate or other environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals. However, the reality is that commitments to buy 100 percent renewable electricity may not equate to a company actually reducing its power carbon footprint to zero. This report from Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy quantifies the mismatch between companies’ contracted variable renewable electricity (VRE) and their actual use of electricity to highlight the degree to which these companies still rely on a partially fossil-fueled power grid to bridge the gap. A modeling exercise and analysis done in collaboration with The NorthBridge Group reveals a significant shortfall between electricity demand and VRE supply, leaving companies that contract for 100 percent renewables to in fact draw between 20 percent and 50 percent[2] of their annual electricity from the regional electric grid, depending on their location, demand profile, and mix of contracted renewable supplies. This disparity presents a number of challenges to corporations that wish to achieve deep decarbonization and are unable to curtail operations to match renewable energy supplies. There are several approaches to get closer to a true zero-carbon power footprint. Installing storage capacity either on-site or at the power plant to provide stored electricity when renewables are not sufficient, such as with a battery,[3] is one option. However, this only reduces the minimum shortfall by half, requiring a customer to continue to rely on electricity from the regional electric grid for 10 percent to 28 percent of its annual load.[4] Resolving the shortfall by procuring extra renewable power (e.g., to 150 percent of annual electricity demand with renewables) can drive costs up substantially without closing the gap.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Green Technology, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14919. How the ESG Investing Framework Applies to National Oil Companies: Workshop Report

Author:: Luisa Palacios and Hon Xing Wong
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On November 16, the Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) at Columbia University SIPA convened a private workshop to discuss the applicability of the current ESG (environmental, social, and corporate governance) investing framework on national oil companies (NOCs). The workshop brought together representatives from NOCs, international oil companies (IOCs), international organizations, multilateral banks, private banks, institutional investment firms, ESG rating agencies, think tanks, and non-governmental organizations, as well as academics. The group discussed the types of ESG pressures that NOCs face, how NOCs are responding to these challenges, whether all the components of ESG are equally relevant when it comes to NOCs, the challenges associated with ESG reporting and ratings, how investors are integrating ESG considerations into their investment process in relation to NOCs, and the risks of future access to financing
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Privatization, Natural Resources, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14920. Comparing a Clean Electricity Standard and a Carbon Tax

Author:: Peter Marsters, John Larsen, Ben King, Hannah Kolus, and Whitney Herndon
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: As the United States commits to accelerating decarbonization as part of global efforts to combat climate change, the policies it enacts will govern its chances of success. These international ambitions are balanced against domestic realities: the effect of net-zero greenhouse gas strategies on households and the broader economy. Comparing different policy options against one another in terms of specific outcomes, such as emissions abatement and financial impact on consumers, is a useful exercise for policy makers. Because US congressional proposals have focused on two potential policy routes—an economy-wide price on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, and a sector-by-sector approach that starts with a clean electricity standard—this report models outcomes for these scenarios. A carbon tax and clean electricity standard (CES) are similar policies in some ways. Both have the potential to drive large emissions reductions from the US power sector and beyond. If the CES is designed to be technology-neutral with tradable credits for clean electricity generation, both policies would operate as market-based mechanisms to encourage such generation. They also differ in significant ways, and this report, part of the Carbon Tax Research Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, uses energy system modeling to zero in on those differences to enable policy makers to better understand the advantages and drawbacks of each policy tool. A variety of constructions even within a single tool—particularly a CES—can be employed. What type of generation is eligible for credit in a CES and how much credit each resource receives, for example, are in part products of political and policy trade-offs. For comparison purposes with an economy-wide carbon tax, this report primarily focuses on a single crediting approach that most closely resembles the incentives new and existing electric power generators could receive under a carbon tax (and is similar to the CES included in the Clean Energy Innovation and Deployment Act of 2020). And for CES comparison purposes, the authors construct a carbon tax pathway that closely approximates the annual and cumulative electric power CO2 emissions of the CES. Given the equal emissions-reduction ambitions of the two policies modeled in this report, the greatest trade-offs come down to price increases and revenues. The carbon tax raises consumers’ electricity price more than the CES does, but also raises significant revenues that could be used, among other purposes, to offset increases in consumers’ energy-related bills.
Topic:: Green Technology, Tax Systems, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14921. Commemorating 50 Years of 'Outcast London'

Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: This event from the Mile End Institute, Raphael Samuel History Centre, and Modern British History Seminar will commemorate fifty years since the publication of Gareth Stedman Jones’ Outcast London. The webinar celebrates the book and featured a panel of experts whose research interests speak to the book’s themes, methods and politics.
Topic:: Development, Labor Issues, Urban, and Industrialization
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and London

14922. Forty Years On New Perspectives on the 1981 Budget

Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: This year is the fortieth anniversary of the 1981 UK Budget Statement, one of the most controversial in British history. Geoffrey Howe, the Conservative Chancellor in Margaret Thatcher's first government, deliberately increased taxes during a vicious world recession after two years of tight monetary policy and punishingly high-interest rates, to tame high inflation. Inflation dropped, but the Budget also accelerated deindustrialization and spiralling unemployment, and turbocharged inequality. It has since indelibly shaped memories of ‘Thatcherism’. Forty years on, the current Conservative government is at a new fork in the road in its economic policy, grappling with pandemic spending legacies, the fallout from Brexit, and post-2008 economics, and with electoral pledges both to fiscal probity and to 'level up' the UK.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Governance, Budget, Unemployment, and Deindustrialization
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14923. The Civic University

Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: In 2018, the UPP Foundation established a commission to investigate the civic work of universities. The commission published its findings in February 2019 and recommended that universities set out to co-create Civic University Agreements with other key civic partners in order to beyond traditional civic engagement and become truly civic universities, embedded into their areas.
Topic:: Education, Social Policy, Higher Education, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14924. After the Virus: Lessons from The Past For A Better Future

Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Hilary Cooper and Simon Szreter have published a powerful manifesto for change post-Covid-19. It argues that the world needs ‘a new morality’ to recover from the pandemic and to prepare for future crises - and that Britain’s own history points the way. In 'After the Virus', they show how decades of neoliberalism and austerity left us vulnerable to the effects of Covid-19; they show how important history is for British and global public policy today, going back 400 years to look at Elizabeth I’s innovative Poor Laws, the world’s first universal welfare system; and they present practical proposals, inspired by our own history, that will promote a morality of nurturing, not exploiting, people and the planet.
Topic:: Governance, Neoliberalism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14925. Celebrating 20 Years of The Living Wage at Queen Mary University of London

Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: The Living Wage Campaign was launched by London Citizens in Walthamstow, East London, in 2001. Since then, it spread across the country and became a nationwide campaign led by the Living Wage Foundation. In 2006, Queen Mary became the first accredited university in the UK to pay all staff a real Living Wage, based on the cost of living, not just the government minimum. Queen Mary also improved working conditions so that every staff member at the university – regardless of rank or role – received a minimum of 30 days’ annual leave, access to sick pay, an annually negotiated pay increase, and an employer contribution pension scheme. In 2011, the University became a founding partner of the Living Wage Foundation. At this event to mark twenty years of the Living Wage Campaign, the Mile End Institute hosted a conversation with Matthew Bolton, the Executive Director of Citizens UK, to revisit the history of the Living Wage and the campaign to establish the living wage at Queen Mary. The event reflected on how the Living Wage is a vital strategy in the fight to end poverty in London and the important role of higher educational institutions in creating a fairer society.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Labor Issues, and Standard of Living
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14926. Structural and Institutional Racism in the UK - Contemporary Perspectives

Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: The Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities in Britain published its controversial and widely criticised report on structural inequalities earlier this year. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) think-tank in conjunction with Race on the Agenda (ROTA) and the Race Equality Foundation (REF) also recently published a collection of papers in the journal Progressive Review that offer an alternative analysis of structural and institutional racism in the UK. This event explored different perspectives and contributions to the debate about structural and institutional racism in the UK, using the IPPR/ROTA/REF collection as a starting point to consider the limitations of the Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities and the analysis it promoted.
Topic:: Race, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Structuralism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14927. Riding the Populist Wave – Europe’s Mainstream Right in Crisis

Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Whilst Conservative, Christian democratic and Liberal parties continue to play a crucial role in the democratic politics and governance of every Western European country, they are rarely paid the attention they deserve. This book reveals a mainstream right squeezed by the need to adapt to both 'the silent revolution' that has seen the spread of postmaterialist, liberal and cosmopolitan values and the backlash against those values - the 'silent counter-revolution' that has brought with it the rise of several far-right parties offering populist answers to many of Europe’s most contentious political problems.
Topic:: Politics, Social Movement, Populism, and Conservatism
Political Geography:: Europe

14928. Banking Bailout Law: A Comparative Study of the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union

Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Our expert panellists discussed Virág Blazsek’s book, Banking Bailout Law: A Comparative Study of the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union, which examines the different bank bailout and resolution techniques and tools through carefully selected case studies. The panel explored the pros and cons of the different legal and regulatory options identified by the book to reconstruct a regulatory framework that might better serve countries in future financial crises.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Finance, Banking, and Bailout
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

14929. The Limehouse Declaration 40 Years On: Can the SDP Teach Us Anything Today?

Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: n partnership with Progressive Britain, we were delighted to host this live webinar chaired by MEI Deputy Director, Dr Colm Murphy. Combining the insights of a witness seminar with contemporary analysis, the panel aimed to highlight the similarities (and differences) between the 1981 schism and the contemporary moment, using this anniversary as an opportunity to gain insights into the politics of today.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Progressivism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14930. The Conservative Party in London

Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: The session examined the long-term prospects for the Conservative Party in London following the recent Mayoral and London Assembly elections. The panel considered how the Conservative party are positioned electorally in London, and how they can attract both younger voters and those from ethnic minority backgrounds. They also discuss the policy issues that are likely to dominate the political debate in London over the next few years in the aftermath of Covid-19, and how London can, and perhaps should, relate to the rest of the United Kingdom in the future.
Topic:: Ethnicity, Domestic Politics, Conservatism, and Urban
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and London

14931. Where Next for the Liberal Democrats?

Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: In partnership with the think-tank Social Liberal Forum, we were delighted to welcome you to ‘Where Next for the Liberal Democrats?’. The panel considered the recent electoral performance of the Liberal Democrats in UK-wide, national, and local elections, the role of the Party in shaping the policy agenda in British politics, and the broader challenges to political liberalism in the aftermath of Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Topic:: Brexit, Domestic Politics, Liberalism, Political Parties, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14932. A Future Well and Fair: A Post-Covid Vision of the Welfare State

Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: This event launched the report from the project, 'A Future Well and Fair: A Post-Covid Vision for the Welfare State', by Paul Copeland, Mary Daly and Alistair Leitch and is supported by Research England. The report argues that if the UK is to become a prosperous, healthy, fair and more equitable society, it needs to acknowledge that the current system of welfare is effectively broken. Reforming existing policy areas in isolation of each other will do little to move the welfare state beyond its current limitations. It provides a visionary and realistic future welfare agenda based on five principles: repositioning; reforming; reimagining; regulating, and revitalising.
Topic:: Social Policy, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Welfare State
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14933. A New Settlement: Place and Wellbeing in Local Government

Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: This event launched the report, 'A New Settlement: Place and Wellbeing in Local Government', in partnership with LGiU with support from Research England. The report outlines a new settlement for place in England built around the insights and the experiences of councils grappling with these challenges across the country.
Topic:: Government, Governance, Local, and Welfare State
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14934. Keir Starmer's Leadership: One Year On

Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: This special event brought together an expert panel to discuss Keir Starmer’s first year as Leader of the Opposition in the aftermath of the major elections that took place in Scotland, Wales, and other parts of the UK. The session commenced with a presentation by Anthony Wells, Director of Political and Social Research (YouGov), who gave an insight into what the polls say about Labour’s performance over the past year and the present and future challenges facing the Labour leadership.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14935. Brexit, Digital Platforms and Algorithms: Competition Policy in the UK

Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: With investigations into large technology companies’ allegedly monopolistic behaviour across the globe, competition policy has become a central issue in economics and politics. But can more robust enforcement of our current rules tame the power of the tech giants? As the role of the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) expands with Brexit, how does its proposed approach towards tech platforms compare in an international context – especially vis-à-vis the EU – and can it be effective in making sure markets don’t tip in favour of a single dominant player? What can the government, academics and the private sector do to tackle the challenges to competition from algorithms that might be prone to collusion, self-preferencing and other harms to fair market outcomes?
Topic:: Science and Technology, Business, Digitalization, and Competition
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14936. ‘Politics and Law: The Nightmare and the Noble Dream’ - Rt Hon Robert Buckland QC MP

Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: UK Constitutional Reform: What Has Worked and What Hasn’t?
Topic:: Law, Reform, Constitution, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14937. UK Constitutional Reform: What Has Worked and What Hasn’t?

Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: The past two decades have seen some of the most far-reaching changes to the UK constitution since universal suffrage. Many virtues have been ascribed to these reforms. To the extent that criticism exists, it has often been to argue that further reform is necessary. This online conference adopts a different approach. It aims to provide a critical evaluation of recent constitutional reforms. Bringing together leading constitutional experts and politicians from the United Kingdom and around the world, the conference will examine the following questions: Did the reforms deliver what their proponents claimed they would? Have the reforms generally improved governance, or added further complication? Have the reforms helped to unite the kingdom or driven further division? Have reforms enhanced or obscured accountability? The programme consists of 8 panels spread over two half days, complemented by a keynote address from a senior figure in the UK government. See the outline below and containing more information about panels.
Topic:: Governance, Reform, Constitution, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14938. Professor Sophie Harman on the Traps Leaders Can Fall into during a Public Health Emergency.

Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Professor Sophie Harman discusses the five traps political leaders can fall into when it comes to a public health emergency as part of the 'Lessons on a crisis' series, presented by Evan Davis, for BBC Radio 4.
Topic:: Governance, Domestic Politics, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14939. Democracy and Climate Change

Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Dr Robert Saunders chaired a panel with Hilary Benn MP (former Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs), Caroline Lucas MP (former leader of the Green Party), David Runciman (University of Cambridge and Talking Politics podcast) and Rebecca Willis (expert lead, UK Climate Assembly), where they explored the relationship between the future of democracy and the future of the planet.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Democracy
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

14940. Dr Richard Johnson on the Georgia Senate Election

Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Dr Richard Johnson discusses the importance of the Georgia Senate election and the implications that the result may have on Joe Biden's presidency.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14941. Understanding Hypersonic Weapons: Managing the Allure and the Risks

Author:: Shannon Bugos and Kingston Reif
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: RESEARCH & REPORTS The debate concerning hypersonic weapons has gained increased attention in recent years as the United States has poured billions of dollars—and plans to pour billions more—into accelerating the development of hypersonic weapons and as China and Russia make headway in developing and deploying their own such weapons. The Pentagon is funding no less than eight prototype hypersonic weapons programs with the aim of fielding an initial capability of at least some of those by 2022. The U.S. rush to field hypersonic weapons merits a more critical examination by the Biden administration and Congress given the many unanswered questions about their rationale, technical viability, cost-effectiveness, and escalatory risks. It is past time for Congress to demand these answers before the military begins fielding the weapons in great numbers. This new report outlines the scope of the unanswered questions about the case for hypersonic weapons, details the underappreciated risks to stability posed by the weapons, assesses the viability of arms control as a tool to reduce these risks, and suggests recommended action items for Congress to better its understanding about the Pentagon’s plans for the weapons, eliminate potential redundancies in weapons capabilities, and mitigate stability risks.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Hypersonic Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

14942. Peace and illicit drugs at the margins: A borderland view of Afghanistan’s SDG 16

Author:: Orzala Nemat
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: Afghanistan is in the process of developing its national goals and targets in relation to the global sustainable development goals (SDGs). There are 17 SDGs which have been broken down into a total of 169 targets. But how are these globally agreed goals being addressed in Afghanistan? In what ways do they specifically address the particular political challenges that Afghanistan faces, and the geographical divisions of the country? Drawing from long-term research on the drug economy and the more recent research of the Drugs & (dis)order project in three borderland provinces in Afghanistan – Badakhshan, Nangarhar and Nimroz – this briefing paper argues that the current A-SDG 16 fails both to identify the challenges that these borderlands pose to the achievement of SDG 16, and to recognise the opportunities that they might offer for peace building.
Topic:: Development, Borders, Drugs, Illegal Trade, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

14943. Securitising Covid-19? The Politics of Global Health and the Limits of the Copenhagen School

Author:: Daniel Elder Duarte and Marcelo Mello Valenca
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked controversies over health security strategies adopted in different countries. The urge to curb the spread of the virus has supported policies to restrict mobility and to build up state surveillance, which might induce authoritarian forms of government. In this context, the Copenhagen School has offered an analytical repertoire that informs many analyses in the fields of critical security studies and global health. Accordingly, the securitisation of COVID-19 might be necessary to deal with the crisis, but it risks unfolding discriminatory practices and undemocratic regimes, with potentially enduring effects. In this article, we look into controversies over pandemic-control strategies to discuss the political and analytical limitations of securitisation theory. On the one hand, we demonstrate that the focus on moments of rupture and exception conceals security practices that unfold in ongoing institutional disputes and over the construction of legitimate knowledge about public health. On the other hand, we point out that securitisation theory hinders a genealogy of modern apparatuses of control and neglects violent forms of government which are manifested not in major disruptive acts, but in the everyday dynamics of unequal societies. We conclude by suggesting that an analysis of the bureaucratic disputes and scientific controversies that constitute health security knowledges and practices enables critical approaches to engage with the multiple – and, at times, mundane – processes in which (in)security is produced, circulated, and contested.
Topic:: Security, Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14944. Climate Politics and the Crisis of the Liberal International Order

Author:: Felipe Leal Albuquerque
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The election of Donald Trump brought disarray to the climate change regime. The changes in what was up to then a promoter of the liberal international order (LIO) exacerbated existing tensions while creating new ones. This paper investigates how that challenge impacted the behaviours of Brazil, China and the European Union (EU) by comparatively analysing their dissimilar positions with respect to three indicators before and after Trump’s coming into power. These indicators are individual pledges and climate-related policies; approaches to climate finance; and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The analysis first shows how the US started eroding the broader LIO and the climate change regime to then delve into the behaviours of the three respective key players concerning climate talks. I sustain that the EU, despite its inner divisions, is already counteracting Washington, whereas China is combining a pro-status quo position based on a rhetorical condemnation of the United States. Brazil, in turn, had a transition towards a climate-sceptic government, shifting from being a cooperative actor to abdicating hosting the COP25.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Liberal Order, Multilateralism, and International Order
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

14945. Systemic Reconfiguration of Capitalism: Applying Ruggie’s Critique of Waltz in Economics

Author:: Sylvia Ferreira Marques
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This paper identifies changes in the center-periphery structure due to transformations in capitalism since 1970. In its new configuration, capitalism not only altered center-periphery relations but also exerted impact upon peripheral units that affect the system structure itself. This paper aims to apply Ruggie’s famous critique of Waltz in International Relations to analyse global capitalism and show how the changes in the center-periphery cleavage is affecting its systemic reconfiguration in the 21st century. This research identifies the boomerang effect as a new systemic element, that is, as a byproduct of the interaction of units of the global capitalist system in the 21st century.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Capitalism, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14946. Multilateral Framework of Investment Facilitation at the WTO: Initiatives and Perspectives from the Global South

Author:: Rafael Ramos Codeco and Ana Rachel Freitas
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The focus of International Investment policymaking in the global South has been shifting from investment protection to investment facilitation (IF). This movement marks an attempt to improve the attractiveness of national economies for foreign direct investment (FDI) and to recover the policy space previously curbed by traditional investment protection clauses. The popularity of investment facilitation led to the beginning of a negotiation process at the World Trade Organization (WTO) to formulate a multilateral agreement in this area. However, the differing negotiation practices related to IF could provoke schisms between the WTO members engaging in this discussion. The latest international investment agreements (IIAs) featuring IF provisions, signed by countries in the global South, indicate that during multilateral negotiations, these countries will focus on improving transparency, predictability and simplicity of the investment environment, as well as preserving their ability to develop public policies that are in line with their development strategies. However, some of the provisions that bring such preferences to fruition would challenge these countries’ bureaucratic and financial capacity. As discussions evolve at the WTO, countries in the global South will need to clarify their positions and co-ordinate their efforts in order to shape an alternative framework that fits their interests.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, World Trade Organization, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global South

14947. Africa’s Strategies of Development and International Insertion: The Hybridity of Agenda 2063

Author:: Guilherme Ziebell de Oliveira and Anselmo Otavio
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The present work discusses the evolution of the development and international insertion strategies adopted by nations in the African continent since the mid-20th century, period during which they began to achieve formal independence. In this context, supported by a literature review and official documents issued by African international organisations, the aim of this analysis is to understand the meaning and the importance of Agenda 2063 for this issue. Based on this analysis, the article proposes to demonstrate that such an agenda represents the inauguration of a new development and international insertion strategy in the continent, a hybrid one, that reconciles elements of two of the previously adopted approaches: the strategies of contestation and of mutual and shared responsibility.
Topic:: Development, Regional Cooperation, and Pan-Africanism
Political Geography:: Africa

14948. Entrenching the Problem? International Organizations and Their Engagement in Latin America to Address Violence: The Case of the European Union in the Northern Triangle

Author:: Kai Lehmann
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Latin America is the most violent region in the world. Yet, decades of political and financial investment by the international community have not had the desired results. Using the work of the European Union in the Northern Triangle of Central America as a case study, this article asks what explains this failure. Utilizing the conceptual framework of Complexity and Human System Dynamics, it argues that current policies actually entrench the pattern of conditions which lead to, and sustain, violence. It shows how, by reconceptualizing this problem using the concepts of Complexity, policies could be made more effective and sustainable.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:: Europe, South America, Latin America, and North America

14949. Rethinking Polanyi’s Fictitious Commodities Based on the Brazilian Nuclear Segment

Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The purpose of this paper is to show evidence of the undetermined expansion of Polanyi’s fictitious commodities within the Brazilian nuclear context. The issue of the marketification of social agendas has drawn a lot of attention to the data, collected through in-depth interviews. The analytical process was guided by the decolonial theory approach and by critical discourse analysis. Among the analysis’ main findings, it is possible to point out the elaboration of a framework which reveals the mechanisms employed by the Brazilian nuclear segment as a way of exercising parallel power and silencing social agendas. The main contributions are the temporal and geopolitical updating of Polanyi’s thesis; and the definition of the mechanisms used by the company Eletronuclear and by institutions as a way of co-optation, naturalisation and marketification of social and political agendas.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Neoliberalism, Decolonization, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

14950. China in UN Peacekeeping Operations: A 30-Year Assessment (1990-2019)

Author:: Renan Holanda Montenegro
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This article presents a broad assessment of Chinese personnel deployments to peacekeeping operations (PKOs) for the past three decades (1990-2019). To this end, an original dataset was built with data collected from the UN Department of Peace Operations. The following four indicators were considered in the analysis: (i) total personnel contribution per year; (ii) personnel contribution per mission; (iii) personnel contribution in relation to the mission’s total contingent; and (iv) personnel in a given mission in relation to the total personnel dispatched by China that year. Generally speaking, UN missions in Liberia (UNMIL) and South Sudan (UNMISS) have been the main destinations of Chinese peacekeepers in the 21st Century, while Cambodia (UNTAC) was by far the only place where China got deeply involved during the 1990s. In addition to displaying descriptive data, the paper also briefly analyses Chinese engagement in these operations.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Peace
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global Focus

14951. Sovereign Power, Government and Global Liberalism’s Crisis

Author:: Mariela Cuadro
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: For some time now a leading cause of debate among IR scholars has been the so-called Liberal International Order (LIO) and its assumed crisis. This article pierces this debate from a critical perspective asserting that different conceptions and analytics of power allow diverse questions on and diagnoses of liberalism in the global realm. With this objective, it confronts Ikenberry’s conception of LIO with the Foucauldian notion of liberalism. This is done by identifying the conception of power that underlies each notion of liberalism, assuming the former as performative. This way, it first defines two different conceptions of power: sovereign and governmental. Second, it links Ikenberry’s conception of LIO with the sovereign conception of power and points out the political and analytical effects of this relation, mainly, the hierarchical character of LIO and the consequent desire for a West-led world. Third, it develops Foucault’s conception of liberalism linked to governmental power and establishes some of its political and analytical effects: the importance of a heterarchical notion of power focused on the dimension of subject and subjectivity for the analysis of the present, and the political need to reflect on our practices of freedom.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Liberal Order, Liberalism, and Freedom
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14952. From Municipalist Activism to Institutional Changes: An Analysis of the Subnational Dimension in Mercosur (1995-2019)

Author:: Cairo Gabriel Borges Junqueira
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Mercosur has gone through distinct phases, leading to the articulation between a myriad of sectors, groups, and actors, among which subnational governments stand out. Local governments started this movement in 1995, with the foundation of the Mercosur Cities Network. In 2000, the Specialized Meeting of Municipalities and Intendencies (REMI) was created, replaced in the following years by the Mercosur Advisory Forum of Municipalities, States, Provinces, and Departments (FCCR), known for being the channel for subnational representation in the bloc. Drawing on bibliographic and document analysis, in addition to interviews and questionnaires, this article aims to analyze the internationalization and inclusion of subnational actors in Mercosur, mainly focusing on the changes observed over the years within these three institutions. The first section introduces the literature on paradiplomacy and deals specifically with Mercosur, seeking to verify how the regional agenda has been expanded, despite decision-making processes not being decentralized. The second and third sections analyse the origins of subnational integration through Mercocities alongside the development of REMI and FCCR. Considering the historical and institutional specificities of Mercosur, the research concludes by questioning the assumption of International Relations literature that regional blocs are potential arenas for effective internationalization of subnational governments.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Governance, Subnationalism, and Activism
Political Geography:: South America

14953. Chinese Investments in Brazil: Economic Diplomacy in Bilateral Relations

Author:: Virginia Soledad Busilli and Maria Belen Jaime
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China has consolidated its status as a great power and strengthened its presence in different regions of the planet. In accordance with its economic development strategy, Beijing’s growing bond with Latin America is part of China’s need to guarantee access to raw materials and energy resources. In this framework and through economic diplomacy, China has strengthened its trade relations, as well as loans and investments in most of the region’s countries.Brazil is an example of this relationship pattern, as one of China’s most important partners and top investment destination in Latin America. It became Beijing’s top commercial partner in 2012. This paper will analyse the composition and evolution of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Brazil between the years of 2004 and 2020. In order to do so, we will study the main projects carried out by the country, as well as the characteristics of the Chinese companies (state or non-state) that participated in the process, in order to understand their most important features. Likewise, we will analyse the articulation of the Chinese FDI with its trade flows. We will start from the premise that Chinese investments in Brazil are directly linked to Beijing’s strategic interests, while at the same time guided by market logics that try to maximise profits. In this vein, within the framework of the ‘going out strategy’,state companies play a fundamental role.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

14954. Military Build-up in Southeast Asia and the South China Sea: How Relevant Are the Disputes with China?

Author:: Bruno Hendler and Andre Luiz Cancado Motta
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the regions with the most dynamic and intense military activity in the world. This is largely due to commercial and political interests linked to the region, which is crucial for global maritime trade and rich in natural resources. China is the most interested party in the SCS, claiming 90% of its entire area, a portion referred to by Beijing as the “nine-dash line.” The present article seeks to analyse both quantitatively and qualitatively the influence of China on the military spending of four Southeast (SE) Asian countries that are also interested in the SCS: Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia. For quantitative analysis, we used the data for military expenditure, armaments acquisition, the frequency and type of incidents involving national navies and/or civilians. For qualitative analysis, we retrieved information from hemerographic sources and official documents from the United States, China, SE Asian countries, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and the World Bank (WB).
Topic:: Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Maritime, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

14955. Technical Election Assessment Mission in Serbia

Author:: Alexandra Brown, Andrew Rogan, Ashley Law, Cirilo Marinkovic, Fernanda Buril, Gina Chirillo, Jovana Strahinic, Nermin Nisic, Magnus Ohman, Rebecca Aaberg, Staffan Darnolf, and Steven Canham
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: Based on international standards and good practices adopted worldwide, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) applies its Technical Election Assessment Mission (TEAM) methodology to assess electoral environments. Using the TEAM model in Serbia, IFES assessed core areas of the electoral process — analyzing both the legal and regulatory framework and implementation practices — to provide technical support and recommendations for stakeholders and interested parties to strengthen electoral transparency and integrity. The report’s analysis and recommendations are designed to be addressed through the election reform process and relevant institutions, but also with tailored interventions facilitated by IFES, such as training, capacity building, civic awareness-raising and advocacy.
Topic:: Elections, Election watch, Voting, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:: Europe and Serbia

14956. Turks and Caicos Islands House of Assembly Elections: Technical Observation and Assessment Report

Author:: Anthony Banbury
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: The Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) held elections for the House of Assembly on February 19, 2021. At the invitation of the TCI governor and funded by the UK government, an independent team of elections experts from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) conducted an in-person technical observation and assessment. The IFES mission employed a modified version of IFES’ Technical Election Assessment Methodology, which allows for a broader assessment of the electoral process and context.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Voting, Election Observation, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Caribbean, North America, and Turks and Caicos Islands

14957. Overcoming Challenges to Democracy and Lorem Ipsum Governance Programs in Dolor Sit Post-Conflict Countries

Author:: Fernanda Buril, Bailey Dinman, and Chad Vickery
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: The quality of democracies around the globe is declining while political crises and conflicts are worsening in several regions. This context makes democracy and governance assistance both increasingly difficult and ever more crucial. In conflict and post-conflict transitional environments, weakened institutions, political turmoil, social divisions and grievances and security threats often hinder efforts to build or rebuild democracy and good governance. Although the COVID-19 crisis led to several ceasefires in early 2020, conflicts are still on the rise globally. This makes it crucial for donors and implementers to understand how to better support partners in these contexts, optimize resources and adapt and improve existing and future programs.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14958. Gender-Sensitive Indicators for Early Lorem Ipsum Warning of Violence Dolor Sit and Conflict

Author:: Louise Allen and Gina Chirillo
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: Conflict and violence monitoring and early warning systems can save lives. Gender-sensitive indicators help provide nuanced and complete contextual information to strengthen the systems’ predictive capacity, but their integration has been infrequent and inconsistent. Overlooking gender in early warning risks ignoring gender norms or behaviors that contribute to violence. It further risks formulating policies and responses that do not account for the differential needs and experiences of women, men, girls and boys. Simply put, we must integrate gender in early warning systems, and the alternative is dangerous.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Elections, Gender Based Violence, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14959. Social Media Strategies for Election Management Bodies

Author:: Gabe Morris
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: Technology platforms and products continue to transform politics and elections with prominent implications for voter trust and understanding. As social media increasingly becomes a space where disinformation and conspiracy about elections flourish, it is essential that democratic actors communicate effectively to share credible information that builds trust and brings transparency to the administration of elections. In keeping with the International Foundation for Electoral Systems’ (IFES) strategic commitment to ensuring that technology, information and data positively serve democracy and elections, we continue to provide tools and resources to help our partners around the world stay abreast of the evolving technological landscape. Despite the proliferation of challenges stemming from the evolution of social media and digital communication, IFES and its election management body (EMB) partners recognize the value of social media in reaching voters, enhancing transparency and countering disinformation and hate speech with credible, authoritative content.
Topic:: Elections, Social Media, Voting, and Digital Revolution
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14960. Kanak Mukherjee (1921-2005): Women of Struggle, Women in Struggle

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The twentieth century was marked by national liberation struggles that emerged in Africa and Asia, as well as in Latin America where neo-colonial structures had subordinated the formally independent countries. The achievements of the Russian Revolution in 1917 inspired the peasantry and the working class across the Global South. The fight for equality and liberation under the leadership of working people are ongoing in the anti-imperialist struggles of our time. Women, in a myriad of ways, powerfully shaped and continue to shape all of these struggles. In the Women of Struggle, Women in Struggle series of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research, we will present the stories of women in struggle who contributed not only to the wider arena of politics, but who also pioneered the establishment of women’s organisations, opening up paths of feminist resistance and struggle throughout the twentieth century. Praxis, as a knowledge of theory and of organisational methods of struggle as they change and respond to history, gives sustenance to ongoing struggles to face oppression. As militants, we study the diverse organisational methods of these women not only to better understand their political contributions, but also to inspire us as we build the organisations necessary for our fight against oppression and exploitation today. In this second study, we discuss the life and legacy of Kanak Mukherjee, a fighter for the people and people’s struggles who was born in undivided Bengal, India, in 1921. The rich trajectory of her activism teaches us about the history of women organising in local, national, and international struggles that linked women’s rights to anti-imperialist and anti-capitalist struggles throughout the twentieth century. In Mukherjee’s own words: ‘We cannot see the question of women’s rights in isolation. The roots of women’s subjugation and the discriminations against them lie in class exploitation’.
Topic:: Education, Imperialism, Colonialism, Feminism, Biography, and Gender
Political Geography:: India and Asia

14961. Risen from the Ruins: The Economic History of Socialism in the German Democratic Republic

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The German Democratic Republic (DDR) was a socialist state founded in 1949 as a democratic, antifascist reaction to the Second World War. It redistributed land, socialised the means of production, and collectivised the agricultural system. This socialist state established an egalitarian education, healthcare, and social system, and guaranteed equal rights between men and women. It cultivated friendly and close-knit economic relationships with other socialist states and supported countries fighting for their independence in Latin America, Asia, and Africa by showing international solidarity. The establishment of a just society based on the principles of equality was the DDR’s declared objective. With public ownership of the means of production as its foundation, the country developed into a powerful and efficient industrial state that used its economic profit for the benefit of its citizens and guaranteed them a life of social security. Ultimately, the DDR was extremely successful in realising its main socio-political goal: the satisfaction of the growing material and cultural needs of its people. But why bother re-examining the DDR’s achievements, principles, and structures thirty years after its downfall? What can we learn from the DDR’s alternative economic practices in today’s world, where the triumph of capitalism has exacerbated the problems of inequality and poverty and has resulted in more frequent crises? What did socialist democracy really look like? What contradictions arose from the everyday application of a planned economy? What lessons can we draw from the DDR’s ultimate failure? With this series Studies on the DDR, the Internationale Forschungsstelle DDR (International Research Centre DDR) together with Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research seek to encourage a new engagement with the history and principles of the DDR. It is our goal to re-evaluate the legacy and experiences of this socialist state. For this reason, we use the German acronym DDR, or Deutsche Demokratische Republik, (English: GDR) specifically because it often represents a positive point of reference in many parts of the world and especially for countries in the Global South. This educational series on the socialist agenda and realities of the DDR explores aspects of everyday life, provides facts about the country’s social achievements, and examines the political and economic foundations of this socialist state. By reflecting on the lived experiences of daily life, which are generally left out of the dominant narrative due to the crushing victory of capitalism and the dominance of the market economy, we hope to make a useful contribution to the debate currently taking place within progressive movements. After all, millions of people around the world are still fighting for advancements that were once a given in this socialist system but were lost with its downfall. This first publication in Studies on the DDR will briefly outline the formation of the DDR and its economic circumstances from the country’s inception to its end. In order to fully understand the specific DDR brand of socialism, we must highlight the historical conditions from which it emerged. The DDR was born in times of crisis in the aftermath of a devastating war as Germany – the instigator of the Second World War – was divided in two. It is imperative that we examine the DDR in its relationship to West Germany, which it opposed in the ensuing Cold War between the communist and capitalist systems. In 1990, after the reunification of Germany, the DDR economy was dismantled. It was treated as a shock therapy prototype for the austerity measures that were soon imposed on other countries – and not just the former socialist states. At the same time, the DDR was politically, judicially, and morally delegitimised. The publications in this series are a rejection of the narrative propagated by enemies of socialism, both new and old, that the downfall of the DDR proves the inevitable failure of socialist policy and economy. By depicting the realities of life in the DDR and by affirming the experiences of DDR citizens, we hope to remind the reader that alternatives to capitalism did and do exist.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, State Building, Socialism, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and East Germany

14962. Serve the People: The Eradication of Extreme Poverty in China

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Grandmother Peng Lanhua lives in a two-hundred-year-old rickety wooden house in a remote village of Guizhou Province. Born in 1935, she grew up in a China that was under Japanese occupation and entered adolescence during the Chinese Revolution. Peng is one of the few people in her community who did not want to relocate as part of the government’s poverty alleviation programme when the government designated her house unsafe to live in. Since 2013, eighty-six other households whose houses were deemed too dangerous or for whom jobs could not be generated locally were moved to a newly built community an hour’s drive away. But Peng has her reasons for not moving. She is eighty-six years-old and lives with Alzheimer’s disease. In addition to low-income insurance and a modest pension, she receives supplemental income from a new grapefruit company that leased her family’s land. The company, whose dividends are distributed to villagers like Peng as part of the national anti-poverty efforts, was established to develop the local agricultural industry. Peng’s daughter and son-in-law live next door in a two-storey house they built with government subsidies. Her children are employed. In other words, her basic needs are cared for, and relocation is voluntary. ‘We can’t force anyone to move, but we still have to provide the “three guarantees and two assurances”’, says Liu Yuanxue, the Party cadre sent to live in the village to see that every household emerges from extreme poverty. He is referring to the government poverty alleviation programme’s guarantee of safe housing, health care, and education, as well as being fed and clothed. Liu visits Peng on a monthly basis, as he does with all the households in the village. Through these visits, he comes to know the details of each person’s life. ‘The floor is too messy’, Liu says, jokingly reprimanding Peng’s daughter-in-law as he enters the large wooden house. She is also a member of the Communist Party of China. On the wall, a poster of Chairman Mao and, next to him, President Xi Jinping, pay homage to two of China’s socialist leaders who bookend the course of Peng’s life. Below their portraits sit a weathered table and a dusty terracotta water jug, an internet router flashing green beside them. A string of ethernet cables and wires stretch to different corners of the house (each house gets free internet and CCTV satellite television for three years before a subsidised rate sets in). There are energy-saving lightbulbs in each room and a satellite dish installed next to Peng’s hanging laundry. An extension of the house was built with a toilet and shower equipped with solar-heated running water, the mud floor poured over with concrete. As Lenin said, ‘Communism is Soviet power plus the electrification of the whole country’. Strengthening the Party in the countryside and meeting the concrete needs of the people have been pillars in China’s fight against poverty. Liu’s visit to Peng’s house is just one everyday scene in that process. The fact that Peng has lived in this house for half a century is also a product of the Revolution; in the 1970s, during the Cultural Revolution, the house was confiscated from a rich landlord and redistributed to three poor peasant families, including Peng’s. That cadres like Liu visit her on a monthly basis, that her house has been made safe to live in through the recent renovations, and that there is internet to connect the poorest of rural villages with the world is a continuation of this revolutionary history. After all, ensuring that the country’s workers and peasants like Peng get housed, fed, clothed, and cared for is part of China’s long struggle against poverty and a fundamental stage in constructing a socialist society.
Topic:: Poverty, Governance, Inequality, and Socialism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

14963. New Clothes, Old Threads: The Dangerous Right-Wing Offensive in Latin America

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: In Latin America, the adoption of the neo-reactionary and alternative right projects of the Global North appears to be a launching pad from which to modify the cognitive maps of the people and to shift political and discursive positions and public agendas to the right. This dossier analyses the right-wing developments in Latin America, identifying how they operate and with what discourses, what social base they mobilise, and their continuities of and ruptures with the history of the right wing in the continent.
Topic:: Politics, Far Right, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

14964. Big Tech and the Current Challenges Facing the Class Struggle

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The fact that the largest companies are in the field of information technologies raises a concern about the use of data for repression, control, and surveillance. This dossier seeks to understand the dynamic of contemporary capitalism and technological transformations and their social impact on class struggle, sparking a debate about the role of digital data and technology companies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Class, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14965. Indian Women on an Arduous Road to Equality

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Despite the constraints that their socioeconomic conditions impose on them time and again, Indian women have found their collective voice to fight for their rights. A vibrant women’s movement in various parts of India has fought against the apathy of the state towards the condition of women, attaining big and small victories in asserting the constitutional rights of women as citizens and workers.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Feminism, Social Order, Socioeconomics, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: India and Asia

14966. Black Community Programmes: The Practical Manifestation of Black Consciousness Philosophy

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: This dossier focuses on the Black Community Programmes, a series of projects initiated in 1972 that served as the practical implementation of the Black Consciousness philosophy to give Black people the power to become self-reliant. In practice, these programmes included the foundation of publications and research, health centres, factories to employ the economically marginalised, and a trust fund to provide basic necessities for ex-prisoners as well as grants for yet other projects.
Topic:: Race, Philosophy, Black Politics, and Consciousness
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14967. CoronaShock and Education in Brazil: One and a Half Years Later

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: This dossier seeks to assess the effects of CoronaShock on education in Brazil, in particular how a mercantile logic advanced through the pandemic and how large corporations in the sector took advantage of the crisis. It documents the actions of private corporations, changes in the educational model, the impact on workers in the sector, and the challenges facing a programme of struggle.
Topic:: Education, Governance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

14968. Defending Our Sovereignty: US Military Bases in Africa and the Future of African Unity

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The enduring presence of foreign military bases in Africa continues to fragment and weaken African state institutions, prevent African unity and sovereignty, and subordinate the aspirations of the continent for pan-African consolidation. Examining gendarme functions and geopolitics, dossier no. 42 explores how the presence of foreign militaries in Africa continues to impede African people in their pursuit of the two most important principles of pan-Africanism: political unity and territorial sovereignty.
Topic:: Imperialism, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Military Affairs, Foreign Interference, and Pan-Africanism
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

14969. The Farmers’ Revolt in India

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Despite India’s achievement of a certain level of self-sufficiency in food production over the decades, the chronic agrarian crisis, often manifested in the suicides of farmers, persists. This dossier traces the causes of this crisis, which go back to the days of British colonial rule and to the choices made by the Indian state at various points since independence.
Topic:: Agriculture, Food, Food Security, Colonialism, and Farming
Political Geography:: India and Asia

14970. The Challenges Facing Brazil’s Left

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Brazil is living through a reactionary situation led by far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who relies on the social support and approval of the country’s ruling classes and Armed Forces. Meanwhile, the Brazilian left aims to regroup and recreate its social base as it tries to regain the political stewardship of the country. Through interviews with leaders of popular movements and parties in Brazil, dossier no. 40 analyses the challenges facing Brazil’s left in this difficult reality.
Topic:: Governance, Military Affairs, Far Right, and Leftist Politics
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

14971. Pity the Nation: Honduras Is Being Eaten from within and without

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Where does Honduras stand twelve years after the 2009 coup? In our dossier, jointly produced with People’s Dispatch and the Civic Council of Popular and Indigenous Organisations of Honduras (COPINH), we look at the coup against progressive leader and President Manuel Zelaya and the prolonged violence in the country in the years since by examining the assassination of Berta Cáceres, the forced disappearances of five members of the Garifuna community in July 2020, and the concerted attacks on trade unionism to understand the far-reaching impacts of the coup.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Coup, and Assassination
Political Geography:: Latin America, Central America, North America, and Honduras

14972. Uncovering the Crisis: Care Work in the Time of Coronavirus

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The pandemic uncovered a reality that has long been brewing in which inequalities, injustices, and asymmetries are violently embedded in the order of society. The crisis of wage-based society did not alter the unequal distribution of work, nor did it recognise it as an integral element of all lives – despite how feminisms have long politicised this discussion. This dossier focuses on three main areas around three main areas: communities, houses/homes, and domestic and care work.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Feminism, Pandemic, COVID-19, Domestic Work, and Caregivers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14973. Dawn: Marxism and National Liberation

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Dossier no. 37 is an invitation to a dialogue, a conversation about the entangled tradition of Marxism and national liberation – a tradition that emerges out of the October Revolution and that deepens its roots in the anti-colonial conflicts of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This is an introduction to a wide-ranging conversation that includes many different revolutionary movements, mostly rooted in the continents of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
Topic:: Socialism/Marxism, Colonialism, Revolution, Liberalization, and Anti-Colonialism
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America

14974. Twilight: The Erosion of US Control and the Multipolar Future

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: At the conclusion of World War II, with the European powers severely weakened, the United States – the most powerful of Europe’s settler colonies – took over the neo-colonial management of the planet. Now, almost eighty years later, the primacy of the United States has entered twilight. This dossier explores the emergence of a new cold war imposed by the United States on China and the forms of hybrid war that have been utilised against countries that it deems to be a threat.
Topic:: Imperialism, Hegemony, Conflict, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

14975. The Legacy of Lekra: Organising Revolutionary Culture in Indonesia

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: In 1965, the Indonesian revolutionary cultural organisation, Lekra, had 200,000 members and one and half million supporters. This was followed by a coup and the killing of one million communists in the months that followed. On the seventieth anniversary since its founding, this dossier traces Lekra’s history and calls on the artists and militants of today to combine individual creativity with the wisdom of the masses, from whose struggles for emancipation we seek hope and direction.
Topic:: Culture, Revolution, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Asia-Pacific

14976. Prospects for US-Russia Relations in the Context of the Biden-Putin Summit

Author:: Giorgio Bilanishvili
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Today, the main vector of Russia's foreign policy continues to go through a confrontation with the West in the international arena, especially with the United States. This fact is important for international politics and, even more so, for the context of Georgia's national security. As a whole, so far, the Biden administration's policy toward Russia is not different from that of its predecessors - the Trump administration and the Obama administration. Its main characteristics are poor bilateral relations and sanctions imposed on Russia, since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and launched a military intervention in eastern Ukraine. At the same time, the US expert community is inclined to say that balancing China's growing influence is a top foreign policy priority of the Biden administration and the realization of this policy could alter US foreign policy vis-à-vis Russia. The Biden-Putin summit held in Geneva on June 16 this year should be understood as a starting point of the US administration's relations with Moscow. Most probably, the parties have "tested the ground" on many different topics, including those where their positions differ the most. Although, this summit did not bring a drastic change between the two countries, which indeed was less expected, but it has relatively increased the dynamics of the relations between the two countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia and United States of America

14977. AUKUS - A Harbinger of a New Geopolitical Reality

Author:: Giorgi Badridze
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: In September of this year, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the creation of a new defense pact in the Asia-Pacific region called AUKUS (which is an abbreviation for the names of the member states: Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States). This paper will discuss the objectives of this new tripartite pact as well as the rationale behind the reactions thereto vis-à-vis leading international players and how it reflects the current balance of power and security prospects in the world. Ongoing processes in the world today, including the creation of AUKUS, indicate that China's power and influence have grown so much that the more or less stabile world order may be radically altered if this is not balanced within the security sphere. The main task of the United States (the dominant power of the existing world order) and its allies is to prevent irreversible changes in world order; in particular, those that will accelerate the formation of Chinese hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Alliance, and AUKUS
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Australia, and United States of America

14978. The Platform of the 3+3 Format: A Review

Author:: Badri Belkania
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The aftermath of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, which in Ankara and Baku was hailed as a triumphant victory for the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance, significantly changed the political situation and the balance of power in the Caucasus region. The turn of the decades-long status quo in favor of Azerbaijan showed that a new phase has begun in the region, often pointed out so by the victorious side as well. 1 Against the backdrop of a significantly changed regional agenda and the growing Turkish-Azerbaijani influence in the Caucasus, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan introduced the idea of establishing a six-member regional cooperation platform. If the idea were to materialize, the members would include Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Georgia, and Armenia.2 Erdogan's idea received a wide response in the region. The new platform for regional cooperation (Russia, Iran, Turkey + Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) has become an important topic of discussion in all six countries, primarily due to its controversial format. The idea of geographically adjacent but politically different countries joining one platform is in direct conflict with the opposing interests of these countries. Despite this significant obstacle, the apologists for the idea, that seeks to replace the conflicts and tensions in the Caucasus with a "long-term peace," remain hopeful that the platform will have a future.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Political Geography:: Turkey and Azerbaijan

14979. Religious Aspects of the Iran-Azerbaijan Conflict: Is There a Danger of a New Hybrid War?

Author:: Aleksandre Kvakhadze
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have become unprecedentedly strained over the past month. Iranian military forces are mobilizing across the Iran-Azerbaijan border. At the same time, a new Turkish military contingent was deployed in Azerbaijan and joint military exercises were held in the territory of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.1 Officials from both countries were engaged in an unfriendly rhetoric. It is unlikely that this tension between Iran and the Turkey-Azerbaijan military alliance will escalate into an open, large-scale military confrontation, but, nevertheless, there is the opinion that the Iranian state will continue hybrid warfare in Azerbaijan through the support of political and religious groups in the medium and long term based on the examples of other countries.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Religion, Alliance, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Iran and Azerbaijan

14980. Iran-Azerbaijan Confrontation: Threats and Challenges

Author:: Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Iran-Azerbaijan relations have never been easy but they became particularly tense in September-October 2021, attracting attention within the region and beyond. This confrontation between the parties escalated into large-scale military exercises and a war of statements but, fortunately, the tension did not reach a level of military confrontation. In the second half of October, the confrontation slowly subsided. However, the problem has not disappeared. Its causes still exist and have a great potential of reigniting the conflict. Such a situation creates a fertile ground for a number of threats and challenges for the entire region, including Georgia.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

14981. The Interests of Turkey and Iran in Afghanistan: Threats and Challenges

Author:: Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: In the summer of 2021, as the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, the balance of power in the country changed rapidly, and by August 15, the Taliban was able to capture the capital, Kabul, almost without a fight. On September 7, the Taliban formed a new "government" steered by Sharia Law. The Taliban also renamed the country, and, according to them, Afghanistan is now called the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan." There are no women or members of the Shiite minority in the new government. Of the 33 members of the still-incomplete government, only three belong to ethnic minorities.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Taliban, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey

14982. European defence: Specialisation by capability groups

Author:: Dick Zandee
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In many professions specialisation is regarded as a virtue. In a hospital the surgeon, the anaesthetist and the nurse have specialised skills. Together they engage in teamwork to cure patients. Yet, when it comes to defence, specialisation has a negative connotation. Contrary to the hospital’s operating theatre, dependency on each other’s armed forces is regarded as a serious, if not unacceptable risk, as a country has to be able to defend itself without relying on capabilities to be provided by other states. In reality, however, interdependence is a fact: European countries have relied on the nuclear deterrent of the United States since the 1950s and with regard to conventional forces, no single European country can provide all necessary capabilities. The question is how European interdependence can be made more effective. The answer must partly lie in specialisation. This Policy Brief addresses specialisation in security and defence from the perspective of the ‘Team Europe’ approach of distributing tasks and operating with varying coalitions of European countries in order to make the EU (and in this case also NATO) more effective. It presents a model of structuring European armed forces in specialised groups – an idea that has been proposed in a Clingendael report published earlier this year. First, the Policy Brief lays out the playing field by explaining the model of European capability groups. Next, several options for European capability groups will be proposed. It concludes with listing the implications for the Netherlands.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Specialization
Political Geography:: Europe

14983. The RRF as administrative subsidiarity

Author:: Adriaan Schout
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: When the corona crisis broke out, it was clear that eurozone economies were ill prepared for new setbacks. Put differently, the SGP had failed to produce convergence. The RRF offers an opportunity to reconsider the effectiveness of economic governance and to strengthen national ownership for sound economic policies. Despite its potential merits, the RRF was not designed to reinforce national institutions to monitor and correct their own economic policies. Creating the required ownership for sound economic policies would have demanded empowering the independent National Productivity Boards (NPBs) and Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs), and integrating them in a redesigned independent network-based European Fiscal Board (EFB). The failure in 2020 to include the NPBs, IFIs and the EFB also implies a major break with the Fiscal Compact, Two Pack and Six Pack that aimed at empowering national institutions. The RRF concerns a major financial commitment and could thus have been used as bargaining chip to strengthen the long-term reform measures by insisting on a subsidiarity-based European monitoring and enforcement system, including mutual inspections, and build around the nascent macroeconomic independent national and EU agencies. Such decentralized systems have proved their worth in successful European policy areas such as in monitoring the state of the environment in member states. This will have consequences for the organization of the EU Commission. Using the lessons from the RRF to (forget to) strengthen national institutions is also relevant for redesigning the SGP. Firstly, redesigning the NPBs, IFIs and EFB will offer a suitable model for monitoring national policies as a replacement of the current centralized control under the SGP by the Commission. Secondly, the future development of the RRF and NGEU can be used as bargaining chip in the negotiations on the SGP. The review of the SGP will involve adaptation of rules, reinstituting the ESM, and deciding on new emergency funds. The negotiations ahead offer opportunities and leverage for steering towards a pro-active and constructive role for the Netherlands in the elaboration of subsidiarity-based economic governance.
Topic:: Governance, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

14984. Military coup betrays Sudan’s revolution: Scenarios to regain the path towards full civilian rule

Author:: Anette Hoffman
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: On Monday 25 October 2021, Lieutenant-General Abdul-Fattah al-Burhan staged a military coup that stalled Sudan’s political transition towards civilian rule. With the government dissolved and a state of emergency declared, two years of painfully gained achievements towards democracy could be lost, the hopes of millions of peaceful protestors shattered, and an already fragile region further destabilised. The military takeover is a desperate attempt by the generals to protect the security elite’s economic interests and to abscond from justice. In response to the coup, millions of Sudanese mobilised to reject the coup and demand full civilian rule. Western governments and the EU have strongly condemned the coup and suspended economic support, while Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are believed to back it. Three outcomes from the current crisis are on the table: a) a full civilian transitional government; b) a return to the power-sharing agreement; or c) military dictatorship. To assist Sudan to regain its path towards democracy, Western governments must put all their weight behind the civilian demands and: i) streamline the ongoing mediation processes and ensure civil society is consulted; ii) bolster the legitimacy of Prime Minister Hamdok and his cabinet, iii) increase pressure on Sudan’s military junta and its backers; and iv) strengthen Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement. This brief presents three plausible scenarios for a way out of the crisis and concludes with considerations for policy makers to get Sudan back on track towards democratic rule.
Topic:: Coup, Revolution, Instability, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

14985. Covid-19 prompts the EU and the Netherlands to rethink global health

Author:: Louise Van Schaik and Remco van de Pas
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Covid-19 pandemic prompted a strong re-engagement in global health. Because the pandemic coincided with geopolitical rifts between the US and China, but required a global response, the EU and its member states took responsibility to safeguard the World Health Organization (WHO) and initiated global arrangements for vaccine sharing for developing countries. Within the EU, mandates and global health functions have traditionally been underdeveloped and divided between the development and health sectors. For the Netherlands, this is perhaps the case to an even larger extent. Development funding has focused primarily on sexual and reproductive health and rights, and the health ministry has had limited interest and capacity on international health issues, with the exception of certain specific issues such as Anti-Microbial Resistance (AMR) and medicine prices. Spending on global health by both the EU and the Netherlands has been fragmented, with mainly ad hoc budgets being made available for the international pandemic response. This policy brief calls for a structural response and more coherent outlook on global health.
Topic:: Development, European Union, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

14986. Turning EU green energy diplomacy into reality

Author:: Louise Van Schaik, Akash Ramnath, and Giulia Cretti
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In Spring 2022, the European Commission will present its International Energy Engagement strategy, which will undoubtedly reflect that the European Green Deal nowadays tops the Brussels agenda. From being a traditional buyer of fossil fuels, the EU is adapting to become an exporter of green energy solutions and, to some degree, an importer of green energy. At a time when energy prices are historically high and EU climate policy is accelerating, this policy brief analyses what a more pro-active EU green energy diplomacy could look like. In light of this shift, a review is made of which instruments the EU could deploy to support green energy transitions and discourage third countries from continuing extraction and production of fossil fuels. It recommends the EU takes a firm stance on phasing out fossil fuel and enter dialogue with some of its current fossil fuel suppliers on the implications of its own transition. The EU will need to establish new partnerships on green energy provision, technology and critical raw materials needed for the transition.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Green Deal, European Commission, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

14987. ‘If you want to go far, go together’ Community engagement and infrastructure development in fragile settings

Author:: Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In fragile and conflict-affected settings (FCAS), infrastructure development is a sharp double-edged sword: it can foster sustainable and inclusive development, but it can also exacerbate fragility and conflict. This brief argues that a substantial engagement of local communities has the potential to improve the conflict sensitivity of infrastructure efforts in FCAS. To ensure that these efforts have a positive impact on fragility dynamics, however, due attention should also be paid to the specific choices made in terms of project design and implementation. The brief offers a set of pragmatic considerations aimed at supporting practitioners navigating such choices. In addition, to ensure a proper tailoring of project choices to the specific context, practitioners should also rely extensively on conflict sensitivity analyses, monitoring the interaction between the project and the context’s underlying drivers of fragility throughout the whole project cycle. While so far CDD projects have mostly focused on small-scale infrastructure, efforts should be devoted to explore whether and how CDD approaches can be applied to larger infrastructure projects.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Fragility
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14988. From indices to insight: A proposal to enhance the risk assessment of the Dutch Early Warning/Early Action process

Author:: Bob Deen, Adaja Stoetman, and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Over the course of the last three decades, countless scholars, diplomats and experts have sought to develop reliable ways to predict and prevent violent conflict and instability. These efforts have yielded a vast array of analytical instruments, ranging from indices that measure various proximate and structural causes of instability to forecasting models that estimate the probability of an outbreak of violent conflict. Predicting and preventing violent conflict and instability Presently, there is a great deal of data available ranging from better measures of political violence and better predictors of violence. Moreover, as data sciences advance, social scientists have been able to develop new models and refine their predictions. However, as such tools proliferate, so do the challenges for policymakers. First, more data does not always mean ‘better’ data. Key indicators such as on political inclusivity, local grievances and competition are often still not readily available. Second, more data and better methodologies have not always meant a better insight into conflict risks. While we have generally become better in predicting the continuation and intensity of ongoing conflict, it remains a major challenge to predict which countries will become unstable and when. Third, perhaps the biggest problem is that even when having a clear insight into conflict risks, converting these insights into actionable policies remains difficult. In these instances, it is often not a lack of information or insufficient early warning signals per se that pose the key obstacles, but rather the ability to convert these data points into policy-relevant analysis and to identify relevant entry points for preventive efforts.
Topic:: Political Violence, Conflict, Risk, and Instability
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

14989. Costing Conflict: An early warning method to assess the impact of political violence on vital security interests

Author:: Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Early Warning and Early Action (EWEA) processes seek to identify the risk of conflict, instability and violence. A large number of foresight models can predict which countries and areas may experience what type and what levels of violence. From this, they produce lists of countries and regions at risk which then qualify for policy measures to help improve stability. However, in order to prioritise countries and regions it is equally important to assess the implications (or the cost) of conflict. For example, Early Warning by the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM) seeks to “prevent tensions from escalating into conflict” and focus on all forms of tension accordingly. UNDP Early Warning seeks to understand how conflict impacts development initiatives and will prioritise countries with those problems. Mandates and interests thus determine priorities.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14990. Unpacking open strategic autonomy: From concept to practice

Author:: Luuk Molthof, Dick Zandee, and Giulia Cretti
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Amidst the weakening of the multilateral system, the rise of multipolarity, and the Covid-19 pandemic, the concept of European strategic autonomy (ESA) has gained considerable traction. In fact, according to European Council President Charles Michel, the strategic independence of Europe is ‘our new common project for this century’ and ‘goal number one for our generation’. Long seen as a French pipedream, and first applied in 2013 to Europe’s defence and security policy, the ambition of strategic autonomy is now backed by a growing number of member states and is increasingly applied to a broad range of policy areas, including industrial and trade policy.
Topic:: Multilateralism, Trade Policy, COVID-19, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe

14991. Warring partners: Exploiting the failed coup in the political transition in Sudan

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The failed coup attempt in Sudan expanded dispute between the partners in power, the military and the civilians, who both sought to use it to lead the transitional phase as per their own priorities.
Topic:: Politics, Coup, Civilians, Transition, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

14992. The Middle East: From a decade of conflict to an age of reconciliation

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Swift reconciliations initiated by regimes with the purpose of cutting their losses and shoring up their own sources of power are not enough to establish enduring stability and a genuinely cooperative regional order.
Topic:: Political stability, Conflict, Reconciliation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

14993. The crisis of the Turkish lira: Toward economic collapse or a new economic model?

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: As with any economic or fiscal policy, Erdogan is taking a risk, betting that his vision can turn the Turkish economy around. The only problem is that with presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2023, he has just 18 months to prove the efficacy of his policies.
Topic:: Economy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fiscal Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

14994. Three Scenarios for Europe’s Conflict Landscape in 2030

Author:: Florence Schimmel
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: In September 2020, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) conducted an expert workshop on the future of conflict for Europe. Participants from across the continent were invited to develop forward-looking scenarios for crises impacting European security up until 2030.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

14995. The Role of Space as a Global Common Good for Critical Infrastructure and Industry

Author:: Christian Mölling, Florence Schimmel, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Space-related topics transcend the “basket” logic of the Strategic Compass (SC) as they touch on aspects of all issue areas. To break down this complex topic, the workshop was based on an input paper and focused on aspects of infrastructure, congestion, and competition. While discussions cannot and should not look exclusively at security and defense, participants were encouraged to spotlight initiatives relevant for the scope of the SC process.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Infrastructure, Space, and Industry
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14996. Promoting Technological Sovereignty and Innovation: Emerging and Disruptive Technologies

Author:: Christian Mölling and Florence Schimmel
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDT) transcend the four-basket logic of the EU Strategic Compass as they touch on aspects of all issue areas. To break down this complex topic, the workshop was based on two input papers that focused on aspects of sovereignty and innovation. While the discussion cannot and should not be held exclusively in relation to the security and defense realm, participants were encouraged to highlight initiatives relevant for the scope of the Strategic Compass process.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, European Union, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14997. Strategic Foresight and the EU Cyber Threat Landscape in 2025

Author:: Valentin Weber, Victoria Cygne, and Lara Toriser
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: This report explores how the cyber threat environment of the European Union could develop in the next five years. It not only describes two plausible future scenarios for European policy-makers that are characterized by different levels of disruption, but also envisions strategies and mechanisms that the EU could deploy to overcome the various challenges that lie ahead.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Cybersecurity, and Digitization
Political Geography:: Europe

14998. Migration, Borders, and the EU’s Capacity to Act

Author:: Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: This in-depth monitoring study assesses the EU’s capacity to handle migration. Why does the European Union respond so badly to migration crises? And why does it repeatedly allow itself to be blackmailed by neighboring states which extract concessions in return for holding back migrants? The ongoing situation at the EU’s border to Belarus is no isolated incident. It reveals vulnerabilities resulting directly from the way the EU regulates its borders and international migration. Over the past decade, a pattern has emerged: the more the EU tries to defend the Schengen Area, its passport-free travel zone, the more vulnerable it makes itself.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, and Borders
Political Geography:: Europe and Belarus

14999. The Digital Technology Environment and Europe’s Capacity to Act

Author:: Tyson Barker
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: This monitoring study explores the EU’s capacity to act in digital technology across five categories: 1) how the EU defines the problem it is attempting to address; 2) how the EU sets an agenda; 3) how the EU formulates policy; 4) how the EU implements policy; and 5) to what degree European policy has an impact at home and globally. Ultimately, the EU’s policy success will be determined by its ability to shore up areas where it is weakest and establish constant and interactive benchmarking to create honest performance assessments. The EU must set out clearly defined objectives that confront the tough questions of “what is essential” and “what is nice to have.”
Topic:: Environment, Science and Technology, and Digitization
Political Geography:: Europe

15000. Women and Minors in Tertiary Prevention of Islamist Extremism

Author:: Sofia Koller
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Over the past years, the role of gender issues in addressing and preventing Islamist extremism has received increased attention. Since the fall of the ‘caliphate’ of the so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS), most of the returnees to Western European countries have been women who had joined ISIS and other Jihadist organizations. Many travelled with children who had been brought along on the initial journey or who were born abroad. Working with women and minors, especially returnees, has become one of the main challenges for actors in tertiary prevention of Islamist extremism.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, Women, Islamic State, and Islamism
Political Geography:: Middle East

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS