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452. From Ideas to Policy: Q&A with Ibrahim Awad
- Author:
- Omar Auf
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Is it possible to imagine, let alone move toward a different global political-economic order? Ibrahim Awad believes conferences and the exchange of ideas have a role to play in moving such a reality forward
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, Politics, Neoliberalism, Interview, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
453. On Senegali Nationhood and African Unity: In Conversation with Mark Deets
- Author:
- Omar Auf and Mark Deets
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- How is Senegal’s recently-elected young president faring in his efforts to navigate a complex local and regional ethno-political landscape? And what echoes from the past inform such efforts? Historian of West Africa answers these questions
- Topic:
- Ethnicity, Interview, African Union, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and Senegal
454. The Elusive Saudi-Israeli Normalization Deal: Why an Agreement is Likely to Fall Short of Expectations
- Author:
- Robert Mogielnicki
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- A deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel will likely happen eventually but is unlikely to transform the Middle East
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, Abraham Accords, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia
455. Trump’s Alternate Reality in the Middle East
- Author:
- Hussein Ibish
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- With his recent foray into drastic measures to resolve the Israel-Palestine continuum, could there be a method to the madness of King Trump?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Real Estate, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
456. President Trump’s Policies in the Middle East
- Author:
- Raphael Cohen-Almagor
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The U.S. president’s pragmatic approach and his out-of-the-box bold ideas may bring a positive change to both Israel and the Palestinians provided they will be translated into action plans carefully and through sensitive communication with all concerned stakeholders
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
457. A Resurgent Trump Returns to a Turbulent Middle East
- Author:
- Paul Salem
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Trump’s unpredictable yet forceful leadership is entering a region in flux, offering both challenges and opportunities for his second term
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America
458. Donald Trump and the Art of Bending Reality
- Author:
- Gabriele Cosentino
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The gravity-defying political comeback of Donald Trump is the pinnacle of the chaotic career of an extreme risk taker with little concern for established norms. But his willingness to upend rules and bend reality to suit his vision might push U.S. and global politics to the breaking point
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Norms, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
459. Trump’s Return: What It Could Mean for Palestine and the Region
- Author:
- Ramzy Baroud
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s return to the White House in the context of the Gaza war and other regional conflicts raises questions regarding his approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
460. Trump 2.0: Where Rhetoric Meets Reality
- Author:
- Diana Bartelli Carlin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The new president has made big promises, but can he keep them?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Rhetoric
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
461. Round Two: Trump’s Foreign Policy Takes on New Challenges
- Author:
- William B. Quandt
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Trump will have to manage the continuing conflict in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and the rising power of China as he navigates the beginning of his second term
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- China, Ukraine, Middle East, and United States of America
462. American Netizens Worry For the Future of TikTok
- Author:
- Sydney Wise
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The temporary banning of TikTok in the United States in January prompted concern over the politicization of tech platforms. The two likeliest paths forward for TikTok represent alternate visions of the relationship between Big Tech and government
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Social Media, TikTok, and Politicization
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
463. The Consequences and Prospects of Israel’s Ban of UNRWA
- Author:
- Kjersti G. Berg, Søren Arnberg, and Lex Takkenberg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- As the UN agency’s operations continue to be obstructed, its outright ban will continue the perpetuation of severe human suffering and have multidimensional ramifications, from illegality on the international level to political considerations regarding the tenuous ceasefire
- Topic:
- Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, 2023 Gaza War, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
464. In Jordan, Trump is a Divisive Figure
- Author:
- Laila Shadid
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Before Trump officially took office, some Jordanians believed that he was the “lesser of two evils”. Now, two months into his presidency, Trump has few fans in Amman
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Jordan
465. Longer Sticks and Shorter Carrots: How the U.S. is Changing its Engagement in MENA
- Author:
- Amr Adly
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The United States’ approach to achieving international hegemony is shifting away from trade and investments back toward bombs and missiles
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Investment, Trade, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America
466. The View from Africa Before and After the U.S. Elections—Q&A with Mark Deets
- Author:
- Omar Auf and Mark Deets
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Trump’s re-election brought massive changes to many aspects of the United States and the world. What led to Trump regaining the presidency? What will the reverberations look like in West Africa? Omar Auf sat with historian Mark Deets to find out
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Interview, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and United States of America
467. A feminist analysis of Australia’s International Gender Equality Strategy
- Author:
- Australian Feminist Foreign Policy Coalition (AFFPC)
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- AFFPC’s submission on the International Gender Equality Strategy centred around a call for Australia to take an explicitly feminist approach and made a series of recommendations for how such an approach could be brought to life through practical steps. In this Issues Paper, we have evaluated the extent to which the strategy has responded to our recommendations. Despite appearing to fail at the first hurdle—the strategy does not take an explicitly feminist approach nor even use the word feminist—there remains some promising signals. Of the 21 recommendations made by the AFFPC in our submission on how the strategy could take a feminist approach in practice, two have been mostly integrated, 8 integrated in part, and 11 not integrated in a meaningful way or at all. The most glaring gap is the lack of an explicit acknowledgement that gender equality requires equality and rights for gender diverse, trans, nonbinary and intersex people, with the strategy instead walking back from its 2016 recognition of the same and using the language “gender equality means equality for all people.” This is backed up by a default to binary language of “women and girls” or “men and boys” whenever specific gender identities are named, although there is a text box recognising LGBTQIA+ rights as a priority.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Feminism, LGBT+, and Gender Equality
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Australia/Pacific
468. ASEAN-ROK Maritime Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Haikal Amran
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Maritime Institute of Malaysia
- Abstract:
- Strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific has taken centre stage in today’s global geopolitical and economic landscape, with key players across the region now increasingly strengthening maritime cooperation with each other to uphold regional peace and economic stability. After all, the Indo-Pacific region hosts critical sea lines of communication (SLOCs) instrumental to international trade, with vital yet precarious maritime corridors, such as the Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea (SCS). In response to this importance, two key players of the region, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), have both reaffirmed commitments to increase maritime cooperation through the ASEAN-ROK Plan of Action (POA) 2021–2025 and the Korea-ASEAN Solidarity Initiative (KASI). Both the POA and KASI outlined an ambitious and broad scope of maritime cooperation to be achieved. Within the grand scheme of things, Track Two discussion plays a pivotal role as one of the many instruments to foster this cooperation, hence serving as an informal yet influential platform to build trust, exchange knowledge, and explore practical solutions on issues ranging from maritime security to sustainable ocean governance between ASEAN and ROK maritime experts.
- Topic:
- Economics, Maritime, ASEAN, Cooperation, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Indo-Pacific
469. Navigating Malaysia’s National Shipping Carbon Accounting Framework towards Alignment with the IMO GHG Reduction Strategy
- Author:
- Egbert Adolf Naintin, Syuhaida Ismail, and Datuk Hj. Dickson Dollah
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Maritime Institute of Malaysia
- Abstract:
- Malaysia is taking significant strides in modernising how it accounts for carbon emissions in the shipping sector, aligning with its ongoing International Maritime Organization (IMO) lobbying strategy and reinforcing its commitment to global maritime sustainability. Nonetheless, this progress is not just about keeping up with international standards, yet also about ensuring that Malaysia plays a proactive role in climate action for future generations. By shifting from an outdated method of self-regulated individual ships to establishing a proactive national initiative, Malaysia is paving the way for a more sustainable shipping sector.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Maritime, Sustainability, Carbon Emissions, Shipping, and International Maritime Organization (IMO)
- Political Geography:
- Malaysia and Indo-Pacific
470. Climate Change and El Nino Phenomenon Heat Up Malaysian Waters
- Author:
- Thaarshini Paramasivan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Maritime Institute of Malaysia
- Abstract:
- Malaysia has recorded intense peaks of temperature due to a heatwave in the Southeast Asia region in 2024. The heatwave sweeping across the nation had a significant impact on human health, resulting in a concerning rise in heat-related illnesses. By April 2024, a total of 45 cases of heat-related illnesses, including two fatalities from heatstroke, have been reported. Alongside the health risks, significant impacts were also observed through the Malaysian waters, including a series of algae blooms and mass coral bleaching affecting the country. These events, once considered rare occurrences, are becoming more frequent and severe, largely due to the changing climate and rising sea temperatures. These issues are not just ecological concerns but have also begun to affect the economic activities tied t o t he m arine environment, such as aquaculture, specifically at the Peninsular Malaysia, which put pressure on Malaysia’s coastal economies.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Health, El Niño, and Heat
- Political Geography:
- Malaysia and Southeast Asia
471. Gender-Based Violence and Sources of Support in the Middle East and North Africa (2023-2024)
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- According to reports from the World Bank, 40 percent of women across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have experienced violence from their partner at least once in their lifetime. A report from the OECD found that violence against women in MENA increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings are in-line with the findings from the most recent Arab Barometer 2023-2024 survey, in which a plurality of citizens from nearly every country perceive that violence against women has increased in the past year. Governments across the region are taking actions to combat the rise in violence but more remains to be done. Despite the dire circumstances, there are points of hope in Arab Barometer’s findings as well. In particular, nearly all citizens can point to at least one source of support for women that face abuse. While citizens are highly unlikely to say a woman facing abuse cannot find support, the most commonly cited sources of support are familial rather than institutional. Specifically, support from male family members is seen as far more readily available than support from hospitals or clinics. Relying on family rather than institutions for support is complicated. At best, a lack of institutional support may indicate that citizens do not view the government as particularly invested in supporting women facing gender-based violence. Increasing institutionalized support through funding and outreach with local organizations or healthcare facilities could provide more security for abused women.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Gender Based Violence, Survey, COVID-19, and Gender Equality
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
472. Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall So Rapidly? Lessons from the Korean War
- Author:
- Joseph Gagnon and Asher Rose
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The speed of both the rise and fall of US inflation in 2021–23 took many economists by surprise. This paper shows that the rise of COVID era inflation reflects three independent shocks: a plethora of pandemic-related shifts in demand patterns and supply disruptions; the largest commodity price surge in 40 years caused by the Ukraine war; and strong monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic, which kept labor markets tight. This paper documents the transmission of these shocks through the main components of private consumption: durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. The rapid fall of inflation reflects the credibility of the Federal Reserve’s commitment to low inflation, something that was not apparent during the inflationary shocks of the 1970s but that was important during the Korean War inflation of 1950–51. Another similarity with the Korean War episode is the temporary surge in demand for durable goods.
- Topic:
- Economy, Inflation, Korean War, COVID-19, and Goods and Services
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
473. Dismantling the License Raj: The Long Road to India’s 1991 Trade Reforms
- Author:
- Douglas A. Irwin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- In July 1991, India began to dismantle its long-standing, highly restrictive import control regime and move toward a more open economy. How were policymakers able to dislodge and replace an entrenched system with powerful vested interests behind it? Standard explanations for policy change—pressure from domestic producer interests, shifts in political power, or conditionality by international financial institutions—do not explain the dramatic transformation that took place. Instead, reform-minded technocrats persuaded political leaders to reject what had been a standard response to balance of payments pressure (import repression to avoid a devaluation) and embrace a new approach (exchange rate adjustment and a reduction of import restrictions). This paper explores the economic and political context behind the country’s dramatic policy transformation. India’s experience highlights the crucial link between exchange rate policy and trade policy
- Topic:
- Foreign Exchange, Reform, Tariffs, Trade, Imports, and Exchange Rates
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
474. Managing an Aging Society: Learning the Right Lessons from Japan
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- As the world and especially other Asian and European economies enter the accelerated process of aging that Japan experienced from the mid-1990s onwards, learning the right policy lessons from Japan’s response is crucial. This paper argues that, overall, Japan has done relatively well by implementing a response that—even if often belatedly so—has mitigated some of the worst economic effects of aging. Japan has successfully raised domestic labor utilization and immigration levels, integrated its economy more with the rest of the world, and implemented a fiscal policy based on debt expansion that has seen debt costs decline. Other advanced Asian economies and China now face aging processes materially faster than Japan’s and will age simultaneously rather than alone like Japan. In addition, many advanced economies will age during a period of much slower global economic growth and less rather than more global trade and investment opening than what Japan faced from the mid-1990s. These less benign international economic and political circumstances mean that many advanced economies will likely not age with the same relative political and economic stability seen in Japan in the last 30 years. In time, this paper argues, “Japanification” will no longer mean a slowly developing economic disaster but will come to mean competent management of a very difficult economic transition.
- Topic:
- Debt, Demographics, Labor Issues, Immigration, Fiscal Policy, Aging, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
475. The Role of Long Histories of “Lived Experience” in the COVID-Era Inflationary Surge
- Author:
- Joseph E. Gagnon and Steven Kamin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- A rough consensus has evolved around the causes of the COVID-era inflationary spike: the disruption in supply chains; the shift in demand from services to goods; the surge in commodity prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; and the pandemic fiscal stimulus programs. In this paper, we highlight an additional factor influencing the incidence of pandemic inflation across countries—their long histories of “lived experience” with inflation. We show that more than half of the variation in inflation across countries during the 2020–23 period can be explained by their earlier levels of inflation. Even controlling for inflation in the 2016–19 period, countries with higher inflation in the 2000–2015 period had higher COVID-era inflation, and the effect of long-lagged inflation is both economically and statistically significant. These long histories of lived experience dominated other policy measures to control inflation, including inflation targets and central bank independence. The influence of long-lagged inflation history appears to be greatest during periods of heightened volatility; it was less important in explaining the cross-country pattern of inflation during the more tranquil period immediately preceding the pandemic.
- Topic:
- Economy, Inflation, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
476. The Effects of US-China Cooperation on Fentanyl Markets and Overdose Deaths
- Author:
- Marcus Noland, Julieta Contreras, and Lucas Rengifo-Keller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Drug overdose is the leading cause of death among Americans aged 15–44, exceeding heart disease, cancer, suicide, vehicular accidents, and COVID-19 in 2023. Most drug deaths are associated with fentanyl. This paper uses data on illicit drug prices to estimate reduced-form price equations of fentanyl, oxycodone, and alprazolam based on supply and demand, including hedonic characteristics. The results are used to estimate the relationship between fentanyl prices and overdoses. They suggest that the Chinese embargo on fentanyl shipments to the United States beginning in May 2019 raised street prices for a limited period, reducing fentanyl overdose deaths in the United States by roughly one-quarter over a three- to five-month period after the announcement.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Drugs, Opioid Crisis, Cooperation, and Fentanyl
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
477. Lessons for the European Central Bank from the 2021–23 Inflationary Episode
- Author:
- Pablo Hernández de Cos
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Since mid-2021, the euro area economy has gone through several shocks, leading to the highest inflation since the creation of the European Monetary Union. A forceful and persistent response from the European Central Bank, grounded in the monetary policy framework it agreed in 2021 ahead of the inflationary episode, has succeeded in bringing inflation down and delivering on the central bank’s price stability mandate. The framework will be reviewed in 2025, and it might conclude that there is no need for a drastic change. Nevertheless, this assessment should be compatible with identifying some areas for improvement. In particular, the 2021 review was primarily focused on the effective lower bound. The recent inflationary episode, together with high ongoing uncertainty, indicate that the articulation of monetary policy strategy frameworks should be robust to very different scenarios. Likely persistence of high levels of uncertainty over the next few years will also require an emphasis on flexibility to adapt to the magnitude, origin, and persistence of shocks. Unconditional forward guidance should be avoided. In addition, there might be a need to more clearly distinguish in the future, when possible, between quantitative easing for market functioning versus monetary stimulus, which could incentivize a careful assessment of the amount, duration, and structure of any asset purchase program. Communication also needs to be improved in relation to the level of uncertainty and its consequences for monetary policymaking with, for instance, greater use of scenarios and sensitivity analyses as appropriate. Improving forecasting/modeling tools, in particular when dealing with large supply shocks, and understanding the roles of different measures of inflation expectations should also be priorities.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Inflation, and European Central Bank
- Political Geography:
- Europe
478. How Export Restrictions Threaten Economic Security
- Author:
- Chad P. Bown
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The fear that a foreign government will impose an export restriction that imperils another country’s economic and national security has driven part of the recent turn to industrial policy and the increased use of tariffs. Countries now worry about disruption not only to their access to energy but also to critical minerals, semiconductors, medical supplies, and other essential goods. Modern use of industrial and trade policy is thus often an attempt to move supply chains in the short term and to sustain them in those new places over the long term, in order to reduce national vulnerability to disruptions caused by export restrictions. However, achieving even modest forms of international cooperation on trade and industrial policy between countries seeking to improve their collective economic security will also require that these same countries take on new commitments to discipline their own use of export restrictions toward each other.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Tariffs, Exports, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
479. Eight Principles for the 2025 Tax Policy Debate (that Republicans and Democrats Should Be Able to Agree On)
- Author:
- Kimberly A. Clausing
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which Congress passed in 2017, came with a built-in policy time bomb—several of the more popular provisions are set to expire on the last day of 2025. These tax cut expirations limited the cost of the law to meet the requirements of the budget reconciliation process and thereby avoid being blocked by a Senate filibuster. The bill's architects deliberately made the less popular provisions (corporate tax cuts) permanent, but they wagered that the more popular individual tax cuts could be extended when the time came. That time has arrived. Yet Congress faces daunting challenges in extending the expiring tax cuts this year, including their high costs, competing fiscal priorities, a fractious Republican caucus with narrow House and Senate majorities, and President Trump's mercurial demands. As the 2025 tax policy debate moves forward, Clausing offers eight principles that both parties should be able to agree on. Of course, actual agreement on these principles is far from likely in today's political environment. Still, she suggests "middle of the road" positions for those who would resuscitate bipartisan tax policy cooperation.
- Topic:
- Budget, Domestic Politics, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
480. Destined for Division? US and EU Responses to the Challenge of Chinese Overcapacity
- Author:
- Salih Bora, Mary Lovely, and Luis Simón
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Heightened concerns about China’s exports have intensified competitive pressures on producers and compelled American and European policymakers, government officials, and political leaders to try to counteract those concerns. President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on China by 145 percent is the most recent—and arguably most dramatic—example of broader concerns about Chinese overcapacity. The clash with China is particularly evident in sectors that US and European leaders have deemed essential for growth and security, charging that Chinese industrial subsidies, rather than comparative advantage, are the basis for the country’s export success. However, the European Union and the United States have taken different approaches to resolve tensions with China. The European Union seeks, at least for now, to preserve and adhere to global trading rules. By contrast, the United States has acted unilaterally (even before the second Trump administration) to defend its domestic production by engaging in a trade confrontation with China that, together with China’s retaliation, has rattled global financial markets. This Policy Brief explores these EU-US divisions, their reflection on trade and industrial policy, and prospects for coordinated action against Chinese overcapacity. The authors argue that the European Union can take the lead toward a resolution within the rules-based system while maintaining an open door to future US participation.
- Topic:
- European Union, Tariffs, Exports, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, North America, and United States of America
481. Alignment or Misalignment? US and EU High-Tech Trade and Sanctions Policies toward China
- Author:
- Antonio Calcara and Jeffrey J. Schott
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief focuses on the alignment or misalignment of the European Union and the United States on high-technology trade and sanctions vis-à-vis China. The Trump administration is likely to continue the aggressive US stance toward China in the technological realm, putting increasing pressure on its European allies to align with US policy. The Europeans, for their part, are in a difficult position: On the one hand, they are under pressure from the US government; on the other hand, the more Washington restricts Chinese trade, the more Chinese exporters will look to the European market to sell their manufactured goods. Increased competition from Chinese imports in Europe, especially in the automotive sector, could in turn trigger a political backlash that weakens support for transatlantic coordination on China.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Sanctions, European Union, Trade Policy, and Imports
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, United States of America, and European Union
482. Significant, but Not Systemic: The Challenge of China’s Efforts to Rival Western Financial Predominance
- Author:
- Martin Chorzempa and Lukas Spielberger
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Despite worldwide concerns about the US dollar, the Chinese renminbi is not yet ready to be a serious contender for leading international currency status. This Policy Brief examines three of the most important Chinese approaches to increasing the renminbi’s role as an international settlement currency: promote bilateral swap agreements between the People's Bank of China and other central banks; create international payment systems that do not involve the dollar, most notably the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System; and develop a central bank digital currency for alternative payment infrastructures. The authors find that Beijing’s efforts fall short of posing a systemic challenge to the dollar or to infrastructures like SWIFT. Nevertheless, these approaches have enabled China to use its currency for bilateral foreign policy. US and European policymakers should consider countering or attenuating these efforts, even though they have had limited success in increasing renminbi usage.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Central Bank, Currency, Digital Currency, and SWIFT
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
483. Addressing Climate-Induced Loss and Damage in South Coastal Bangladesh: Bridging Local Insights and National Policy Interventions
- Author:
- International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
- Abstract:
- This policy brief captures the key findings from Loss and Damage Policy Labs (LDPLs), a series of local and multi-level national policy dialogues held in Bangladesh in 2024. The LDPLs involved diverse stakeholders seeking to address climate-induced loss and damage (L&D) in Bangladesh, by fostering community-driven approaches and connecting local needs with the national policy landscape. The brief emphasizes local experiences in Bangladesh, particularly in its southern belt. It illustrates a case study from Barisal Division, which is representative of the wider vulnerable coastal region of Bangladesh. Addressing the climate risks threatening Bangladesh and its coastal region specifically requires a cohesive, inclusive, and evidence-based approach that integrates local perspectives into national frameworks while addressing both economic and non-economic loss and damage (NELD). Priorities include fostering community-driven, gender-sensitive solutions, enhancing capacities through training and robust assessment frameworks, and strengthening access to global climate finance through innovative mechanisms and transparent processes. By aligning local capacities, national policies, and international commitments and advocating for equitable support on global platforms, Bangladesh can pioneer effective climate resilience strategies, and serve as a model for other vulnerable nations.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Climate Finance, Resilience, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
484. North Korea, Russia, and China: Past Cooperation & Future Prospects
- Author:
- Sydney Seiler
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- Syd Seiler argues that recent developments in the relationship between North Korea, China, and Russia should be examined within the context of past interactions and North Korea’s geopolitical reality over the past several decades. North Korea’s pursuit of a distanced approach toward China and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, its post-Cold War management of the bilateral relationships while developing nuclear weapons, and contemporary developments within the North Korea-China-Russia triangle highlight limited shared interests and few signs of deliberate trilateralism. Despite skepticism regarding the durability of trilateralism, Seiler warns against neglecting the threat of collaboration and cooperation among the three countries. In particular, the evolving relationship between North Korea, China, and Russia holds the potential to harm the existing balance of power on the Korean Peninsula and embolden North Korea to believe that the use of force might be justified within the New Cold War structure. Seiler outlines three scenarios in which the evolution of trilateralism could lead to North Korea employing military force on the Korean Peninsula, highlighting the critical role of China and Russia in either restraining or encouraging North Korean revisionism. To properly respond to the dangerous transformation of the geopolitical environment, Seiler recommends the United States, South Korea, and like-minded states reinforce conventional and extended deterrence by convincing China and Russia that they will incur high costs for enabling North Korea’s coercive and revisionist behavior.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and North Korea
485. Siloed No More: The U.S.-ROK Alliance and a Taiwan Conflict
- Author:
- Clint Work
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This project was motivated by and builds upon earlier research tracing the evolution and apparent alignment of U.S. and South Korean signaling on Taiwan, wherein the South Korean government adopted a more outspoken position regarding “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” and framed it in increasingly expansive terms—as a regional and global issue yet also directly linked to the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula. The previous research indicated the U.S.-ROK alliance faced a gap between its topline diplomatic rhetoric on Taiwan and its preparedness to navigate an actual conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan and the attendant risk of a simultaneous conflict on the Korean Peninsula. This project aimed to go beyond diplomatic rhetoric. Forty-two interviews were conducted from June 2024 to February 2025 in both Washington and Seoul. Most were in-person interviews with some conducted virtually or by written response via email. Through these interviews with U.S. and ROK current and former government officials, think tank experts, and academics—as well as open-source research—this project offers insight on the evolution and state of U.S.-ROK alliance discussions on a Taiwan conflict, key challenges obstructing such discussions, and critical variables or dynamics the alliance would have to navigate in the event of a conflict.
- Topic:
- Security, Alliance, Conflict, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
486. Untethered Sentiments: How Politics, Visibility, Perception, and Demographic Differences Shape American Views on Foreign Investment and Trade
- Author:
- Je Heon (James) Kim and Nils Wollesen Osterberg
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The key takeaways from this study are as follows: 1. Impact of Perception on Foreign Investment Attitudes: The study finds that individual perceptions of FDI at the state level play a crucial role in shaping attitudes toward investment. Individuals who perceive high Korean FDI or states where Korean FDI has more visibility tend to have more favorable views toward foreign investment compared to those in states with low FDI or visibility of such investments. This finding highlights the importance of strategic communication and visibility in shaping public perceptions of foreign investment. Simply increasing investment is not enough; companies and governments must actively promote their contributions to local economic growth and job creation to gain broader public support. 2. Variation in Support Based on Country of Origin: While most Americans view foreign investments as beneficial, attitudes differ based on the investing country’s origin. Investments from South Korea, Japan, and Germany, for instance, are viewed more favorably than investments from China and Russia. 3. Political and Ideological Divides in Trade and Tariff Attitudes: The data reveals partisan differences regarding trade and tariffs. According to our data, a substantial majority of Republicans—at the time of this survey—favor tariffs, mirroring their party leader’s policies. Meanwhile, a minority of Democrats expressed similar support for the use of tariffs. 4. Dissonance on Trade and Tariffs: Despite broad support for U.S. participation in international trade, a significant portion of respondents also favor maintaining or increasing tariffs, suggesting support for the theoretical benefits of trade and protectionism. Evidence suggests that partisan or ideological drivers may be at work. 5. Demographic Influences on Trade and Investment Opinions: Factors such as gender, age, income, and education significantly impact trade attitudes. Younger individuals, higher-income earners, and those with higher education levels are more supportive of open trade, while lower-income and older individuals are more skeptical. 6. Reciprocity as a Key Factor in Investment Policy Preferences: Many Americans favor restrictions on inbound foreign investment unless similar restrictions are removed for U.S. investments abroad, highlighting the importance of the reciprocal approach to trade and investment policies. 7. Limited Influence of Job Creation on Investment Preferences: While respondents recognize that foreign investments create jobs, this factor alone does not significantly sway opinions on investment restrictions, as other economic and political considerations often take precedence. 8. Defense Industrial Cooperation and Export Control Concerns: A majority of respondents support maintaining or increasing restrictions on defense-related industrial cooperation, emphasizing national security concerns over economic benefits from defense-related investments and trade.
- Topic:
- Politics, Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Trade, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
487. Rule of law in Mozambique
- Author:
- Margherita Bove and Patricia Justino
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the state and evolution of the rule of law in Mozambique, focusing on key dimensions such as voice and political participation, judicial independence and accessibility, corruption, access to basic services, personal security, and property rights. Drawing on Afrobarometer surveys, voting data, and conflict records, the paper offer insights into the perceptions and experiences of Mozambican citizens. The findings indicate a deterioration in institutional trust over the past two decades, alongside declining voter turnout in general elections and increasing election-related and political violence. Despite reforms aimed at improving judicial autonomy and accessibility, the legal system remains affected by inefficiencies and regional disparities. Citizens are often subject to bribery when accessing essential public services, and perception of corruption in key institutions remains high. Concerns about fairness and integrity in the land registration process can also weaken confidence in land security and property rights protection. The paper highlights the continued challenges Mozambique faces in consolidating the rule of law, exacerbated by legacies of conflict, political instability, and uneven socioeconomic development.
- Topic:
- Elections, Rule of Law, Institutions, Survey, and Trust
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
488. Inequality and agricultural structural change: Evidence from macro and microdata, 1950–present
- Author:
- Matthew Fisher-Post
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Since 1950, agricultural productivity has been increasing even as labourers leave agriculture. However, while average productivity of the sector has been converging, within-sector inequality has been increasing. Agricultural income inequality is still less than overall income inequality, but it measures significantly higher when we use higher-quality and more comprehensive survey data. This means not only to observe the entirety of household farm income, but also to measure the magnitude of capital income and corporate profits in the sector. Given the likely increase in agricultural inequality during the process of structural change, I show also the extent to which social protection programmes are both insufficient and poorly targeted for rural populations.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Food Security, and Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
489. How reliable are national accounts estimates of agricultural output?
- Author:
- Sam Jones and Marcelo Mucocana
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Measurement errors in macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP have been widely lamented, particularly in low-income contexts. This study investigates the reliability of one component of national accounts, agricultural sector output. Focusing first on the case of Mozambique, we use a series of 12 harmonized national agricultural micro-surveys to construct estimates of gross annual output in the sector. Compared to corresponding national accounts values for the period 2002–20, the micro-survey estimates are about 50% lower. A decomposition exercise indicates this gap is primarily driven by differences in base year levels, offset by higher rates of inflation observed in survey-based producer prices. Triangulating these estimates using household budget surveys, market price, and FAO production data, we find consistent support for the agricultural micro-survey estimates, suggesting real rates of total GDP growth may have been overestimated by 1 percentage point over the period. A cross-country comparison of national accounts and FAO production data indicates positive differences between estimates of agricultural output from the two sources are not unique to Mozambique, but with larger discrepancies among lower-income countries. Systematic investment in reliable and timely agricultural statistics is essential to track progress in the sector.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, GDP, Macroeconomics, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
490. Social protection for Mozambique’s elderly: History, structure, and potential effectiveness
- Author:
- Sara Almeida, Hanna Berkel, Sam Jones, Patricia Justino, and Telça Massingue
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This study assesses the effectiveness of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the elderly component of the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB). Focusing on three key criteria— programme targeting, reliability, and materiality—we combine administrative data on the universe of beneficiaries with the complete records of the 2017 Population and Housing Census. Merging these datasets at the localidade level, we provide a highly granular view of programme coverage rates and payment delivery regularity. We estimate that in the best case with zero targeting errors, the PSSB-Elderly programme reaches two-thirds of its target group. However, significant regional disparities persist, including undercoverage in poorer regions. Additionally, we document substantial delays in payments since 2023, as well as various inaccuracies in the beneficiary registry. These findings underscore the importance of simple and robust designs for social protection in resource-constrained contexts. They also suggest that expanding programme coverage towards a quasi-universal subsidy in high-poverty locations merits serious consideration.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Public Policy, Pension, and Payment Systems
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
491. Environmental Kuznets curve and green regulation
- Author:
- Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Loredana Pisano
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we first test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, using a large sample of approximately 190 advanced and developing countries, over a period of 34 years (1989– 2022). We find that (CO2) emissions respond positively to increasing income per capita, up to a turning point of approximately US$25,000. In a departure from the previous literature, we allow the relationship between economic development and emissions to depend on the stringency of environmental regulation. Our results indicate that environmental policies—and particularly market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emissions trading systems—make the EKC lower and flatter. These results are robust to several sensitivity checks, and to the use of regional (rather than global) data. Overall, our results have important policy implications, as they identify economic development as a pathway to environmental improvements. Moreover, we show that environmental policies are an essential means to achieving decoupling of emissions and economic output over the longer term.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Carbon Tax, Decoupling, and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
492. Fiscal policy and commodity price shocks in South Africa
- Author:
- Tumisang Loate and Vincent Dadam
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the effect of commodity price shocks in a commodity-exporting small open economy, and the role of fiscal policy in transmitting these shocks to the rest of the economy. Using South African data, we first estimate an empirical model using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. We then develop a New Keynesian small open economy with labour market hysteresis and commodity price shocks. We find that a commodity price shock typically has an expansionary effect as real GDP and employment increase, which translates into higher tax revenue. The results from our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model match the data. In addition, despite not modelling the tradable and non-tradable sectors explicitly, we find that there is an opportunity cost associated with taxing the commodity sector more than home production. This results in a higher trade deficit and government spending. Consequently, we also explore the role of countercyclical fiscal policy during a commodity boom.
- Topic:
- Economy, Fiscal Policy, Hysteresis, and Commodity Price Shock
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
493. Economic development and inequality of opportunity: Kuznets meets the Great Gatsby?
- Author:
- Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Domenico Moramarco, and Vito Peragine
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- According to the Kuznets hypothesis, inequality first tends to increase and then decrease as a country develops. Whether borne out empirically, this inverted-U Kuznets curve, as a stylized ‘fact’, has shaped the discourse on economic development and income inequality for decades. In this paper we investigate whether a similar relationship holds between national income per capita and inequality of opportunity: the inequality associated with inherited individual circumstances such as gender, ethnicity, and family background. As, empirically, inequality of opportunity is positively correlated with income inequality (a relationship known as the ‘Great Gatsby’ curve), the relationship between inequality of opportunity and ‘development’ is expected to display the same inverted-U shape. We suggest that the existence of a Kuznets inequality of opportunity curve can be the result of a ‘triangular’ relationship between development, income inequality, and inequality of opportunity. We propose a simple theoretical model that links the three concepts and describes two possible mechanisms. A numerical simulation based on the model illustrates the process. We then draw on the newly published Global Estimates of Opportunity and Mobility database to shed new light on this ‘triangular’ relationship, primarily in a cross-sectional context.
- Topic:
- Development, Inequality, and Opportunity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
494. Surviving the storm: How climate-related disasters reshape tax morale in sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Enrico Nichelatti and Abrams Tagem
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Climate-related disasters have increased over recent decades, with severe human and economic consequences. While research has examined their macroeconomic effects and impact on households’ income and consumption patterns, little attention has been given to their impact on tax morale—taxpayers’ intrinsic motivation to comply with tax obligations. This study fills this gap by estimating the impact of climaterelated disasters on tax morale in 26 sub-Saharan African countries using Afrobarometer survey data from 2011 to 2021. The analysis considers six climate-related shocks: droughts, earthquakes, extreme temperatures, floods, storms, and wildfires. We hypothesize that the impact of climate-related disasters on tax morale depends on the specific disasters considered, and that these heterogeneous effects work through two key mechanisms: economic inequality and trust in public institutions. First, they can exacerbate inequality by reducing government revenue, increasing economic hardship for vulnerable groups (through loss of livelihoods), and eliciting unequal policy responses from government. Climate-related disasters can also reduce inequality when associated with increased economic hardship for richer households (by destroying their productive assets. Second, tax morale declines when citizens perceive government responses as inadequate or unfair; conversely, it increases if citizens perceive the government to be responding adequately. Logistic regression results confirm this heterogeneity. Droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms reduce tax morale, while earthquakes and wildfires increase it. Incorporating regional heterogeneity shows that the negative effects of disasters on tax morale are more profound in rural areas. Mediation analysis confirms inequality and institutional trust as key transmission channels. These findings underscore the need for inclusive tax policies and effective post-disaster governance to sustain revenue mobilization in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Tax Systems, and Economic Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
495. Carbon taxation and firm behaviour in emerging economies: Evidence from South Africa
- Author:
- Johannes Gallé, Rodrigo Oliveira, Daniel Overbeck, Nadine Riedel, and Edson Severnini
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of how firms in emerging economies respond to carbon taxation, leveraging detailed administrative data from South Africa—a potential trailblazer for other developing countries with limited state capacity amid the growing global push for carbon pricing. We examine the dynamic impacts of the carbon tax on firm-level outcomes—such as profits, sales, capital, and labour inputs—across manufacturing and mining firms, which are key sectors in the context of the carbon tax. Contrary to concerns that carbon taxes may hinder economic growth or reduce employment, our findings show no evidence of negative average impacts on firm performance or jobs. However, this overall result masks significant heterogeneity in the tax’s effects across sectors, driven by the sector-specific design elements of the South African carbon tax. Firms expecting higher effective tax rates may have intensified their use of emission-intensive machinery and depreciated capital in anticipation of the tax. This behaviour appears to stem from firms resolving regulatory uncertainty or seeking to recover costs from stranded assets.
- Topic:
- Employment, Economic Growth, Carbon Tax, and Emerging Economies
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
496. Rethinking development finance in Tajikistan: Towards more sustainable and inclusive fiscal pathways
- Author:
- Jovid Ikromi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper rethinks development finance in Tajikistan through the lens of fiscal sociology, arguing that sustained reliance on foreign aid and external borrowing may weaken state-society trust and erode institutional legitimacy. Anchored in the political economy of development finance, the paper explores how alternative financing strategies, such as tax reform, diaspora bonds, thematic bonds, and blended finance, interact with domestic institutions, investor confidence, and citizen perceptions of fiscal fairness. While external flows have financed essential infrastructure and social programmes, they have also limited incentives for domestic resource mobilization and weakened public accountability. Issues of debt sustainability increasingly constrain long-term planning, while climate finance is emerging as both a challenge and an opportunity for diversifying development funding. Drawing on policy analysis and secondary data, the paper shows that financial instruments succeed not only through technical design but through their ability to reinforce the fiscal social contract. Tajikistan’s case illustrates that without improvements in governance, transparency, and citizen engagement, even well-structured innovations in development finance may fail to gain traction. The findings offer practical insights for low-income countries seeking to reduce aid dependency while building more credible and inclusive systems of public finance.
- Topic:
- Development, Foreign Aid, Finance, Climate Finance, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Tajikistan
497. Twenty-five years of inflation-targeting in South Africa: Going from 6% to 3%?
- Author:
- Philippe Burger
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper proposes that the South African Reserve Bank should pursue a 3% inflation target, instead of the current 4.5% midpoint of a 3%-to-6% target range. Doing so may also result in lower inflation volatility, thereby reducing nominal exchange rate risk for investment and trade, and may thus support economic growth. Using a two-regime Markov-switching model, the analysis shows that since the global financial crisis, periods of higher inflation volatility are much shorter. Thus, inflation is relatively better anchored since the global financial crisis. But there are still shocks that coincide with periods of exchange rate volatility. Lastly, the analysis shows that the budget deficit/gross domestic product ratio, constraints on electricity supply, and administered prices contribute significantly to inflation, while the effect of real gross domestic product growth (as a demand variable) is limited. The analysis also argues that the sacrifice ratio, measuring the sacrifice of growth and employment that is required to reduce inflation, is of limited use once the potential role that other variables can play in the reduction of inflation and inflationary expectations is considered. The government has an especially significant role to play in supporting the South African Reserve Bank in lowering the inflation rate to an average of 3% by lowering the level and volatility of administered price inflation, reducing the budget deficit, and improving electricity supply.
- Topic:
- Budget, Investment, Inflation, Trade, and Deficit
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
498. US interests can benefit from stronger congressional ties with the Caribbean
- Author:
- Wazim Mowla and Maite Gonzalez Latorre
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Caribbean’s geographic proximity to the United States—as well as its use as a transit point for US citizens, goods, and financial services—makes it a crucial hub for US national interests. However, the relationship has suffered from inconsistent and infrequent assistance. Changes in US policy priorities bring ever-changing adjustments to US engagement, leaving the Caribbean, its leadership, and its institutions with insufficient time to benefit from US policy action. For Caribbean countries, policy continuity is critical for implementation and to see tangible and meaningful development. The region’s small populations and markets, vulnerability to natural disasters and changing global commodity prices, and limited institutional capacity slow the pace of receiving and utilizing development assistance and support. Underpinning US-Caribbean ties with stronger US congressional engagement can provide needed longevity to the relationship. Congressional actions—like newly appropriated resources and committee hearings—can bring tangible benefits to US-Caribbean relations.
- Topic:
- Security, Environment, Politics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, North America, and United States of America
499. The fall of Assad has opened a door. But can Syria seize the moment?
- Author:
- Qutaiba Idlibi, Charles Lister, and Marie Forestier
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- For more than a decade, Syria’s crisis has caused unimaginable suffering inside the country and a constant stream of strategically significant spillover effects across the Middle East and globally. However, this dynamic changed in late 2024, when armed opposition groups in Syria’s northwest launched a sudden and unprecedentedly sophisticated and disciplined offensive, capturing the city of Aleppo and triggering an implosion of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. In the space of ten days, Assad’s rule collapsed like a house of cards, dealing a crippling blow to Iran’s role in Syria and significantly weakening Russia’s influence. Now, for the first time in many years, Syria has a chance to recover and reintegrate into the international system. If the United States, Europe, Middle Eastern nations, and other stakeholders embrace the right approach, support the right policies, and encourage Syria’s transition to move in the appropriate direction, the world will benefit—and Syrians will find peace. The work of the Syria Strategy Project (SSP) and the policy recommendations in the report “Reimagining Syria: A roadmap for peace and prosperity beyond Assad” present a realistic and holistic vision for realizing that goal. This report is the result of intensive joint efforts by the Atlantic Council, the Middle East Institute (MEI), and the European Institute of Peace (EIP), which have been collaborating since March 2024 on the SSP. At its core, the project has involved a sustained process of engagement with subject-matter experts and policymakers in the United States, Europe, and across the Middle East to develop a realistic and holistic strategic vision for sustainably resolving Syria’s crisis. This process, held almost entirely behind closed doors, incorporated Syrian experts, civil society organizations, and other stakeholders at every step.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Rights, Politics, Economy, Crisis Management, Bashar al-Assad, Freedom, and Democratic Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
500. The European Union Growth Plan for the Western Balkans: A reality test for EU enlargement
- Author:
- Valbona Zeneli, Richard Grieveson, Isabelle Ioannides, and Dimitar Bechev
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The European Union (EU) Growth Plan for the Western Balkans aims to integrate the region into the EU single market, enhance regional cooperation, implement significant governance and rule of law reforms, and boost EU financial support. In doing so, the EU seeks to foster economic development, political stability, and security in the region amid rising geopolitical tensions, while accelerating the Western Balkans’ EU accession process. The Growth Plan holds substantial potential to reinvigorate the enlargement process and counter the stagnation felt by both the EU and the region. Strong points include: Tangible benefits before full accession: Providing stronger incentives for reform. Active involvement of regional governments: Increasing buy-in from local leaders, who must submit their own reform agendas. Enhanced economic integration, greater access to the EU market, increased EU funding, and reforms to governance and the rule of law: Stimulating investment, promoting economic growth, and raising living standards. These improvements would bring the Western Balkans closer to the economic success seen in the Central and Eastern European countries in the EU over the past two decades. Moreover, fostering deeper regional cooperation will not only deliver an economic boost but also contribute to political normalization. If successful, the plan will bolster the EU’s political influence in the region, countering the impact of external actors and encouraging much-needed nearshoring investment from EU firms. However, the plan faces several challenges: Enforceability: Although conditionality is rigorous, with disbursement of funds tied to strict conditions to prevent misuse, there are concerns regarding its enforceability. The European Court of Auditors has already raised reservations. Quantity: Additionally, the financial support offered is significantly lower than what EU member states in Southeast Europe receive. The reforms required for fund access and single market integration are substantial and will demand significant political will and institutional capacity—both of which have been lacking in the region at times over the past two decades. The success of the growth plan will largely depend on its implementation. The EU must ensure rigorous enforcement of conditionality, reward positive reform steps, and increase funding for countries making progress. Civil society in the Western Balkans should be engaged as much as possible to foster broader support and transparency. The EU should also leverage the plan to align with its broader geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, particularly in strengthening its strategic autonomy. Additionally, the Growth Plan should be fully integrated with the EU’s competitiveness, green, and digital transition agendas. For their part, Western Balkans leaders should seize the increased agency provided by the plan. They must take ownership of the reforms they propose, participate actively in EU meetings, and design their reform agendas to deliver better living standards and deeper EU integration for their populations.
- Topic:
- Markets, Reform, European Union, and Enlargement
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Western Balkans