Publication Year: within 5 Years / Topic: Elections

1. Turkey: The beginning of the next phase of autocratization or the revival of democracy

Author:: Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: In May 2023, Turkey will hold the most critical elections since the founding of the Republic 100 years ago. For the first time in 20 years in power, public polls point at an electoral defeat of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. What does the crisis and potential demise of President Erdoğan mean for Turkey? Is this the beginning of a next phase of autocratization or the chance for transition to democracy? Autocratization came gradually after recurrent electoral victories of the ruling AKP. The executive takeover (Svolik 2019) has entailed the colonization of state institutions, the control of the judiciary, the mainstreaming of media, the curtailment of democratic rights and liberties and the reorganization of business capital. Authoritarianism reached a new level after the failed coup attempt of 2016 and introduction of a presidential system in 20181. Ever since executive powers are united in the hands of the president. He can rule with executive orders, appoint ministers and bureaucrats and redesign institutions and ministries without the approval of the parliament. Parliament was weakened and checks and balances largely elimitnated. Independent state institutions such as the Supreme Election Committee, the Regulatory Radio and Televison Authority or the Central Bank have lost their autonomy. Without exception, they are all led by loyal supporters who are appointed by the president.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, AKP, and Autocracy
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

2. An Even Larger Role in Everything

Author:: Akhil Ramesh and Michael Rubin
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: On May 24, 2022, President Joe Biden met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Quad summit in Tokyo. According to the White House readout of the meeting, “The leaders reviewed the progress made in the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership. They committed to deepen the Major Defense Partnership, encourage economic engagement that benefits both countries, and expand partnership on global health, pandemic preparedness, and critical and emerging technologies.” While such statements are often aspirational and lag in implementation, the first four months of 2023 show the renaissance in US-India ties to be real.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

3. The New Iraqi Opposition: The anti-establishment movement after the 2021 elections

Author:: Marsin Alshamary
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: At the start of Iraq’s longest government formation process in October 2021, one key question on everyone’s mind was whether Iraq might get its first majoritarian government. The Sadrist Movement tried for months, but ultimately Muqtada Al-Sadr conceded defeat by calling on his MPs to resign. The result was another consensus government with all the traditional political parties sharing the spoils, minus the Sadrists. A second key question on everyone’s mind was whether a genuine parliamentary opposition could develop in Iraq given the election of many independent MPs and the rise of reformist parties. This brief outlines the conditions needed for such a parliamentary opposition to emerge, discusses both technical and political elements, and analyses the challenges facing the ‘new Iraqi opposition’, i.e. veteran independent politicians, civil society activists and even former members of established parties. It argues that a sound electoral environment, unification of reformist parties and a higher turnout can contribute to making meaningful opposition a reality, which is needed to confront Iraq’s collusive democracy.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Opposition
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

4. Turkey Earthquake: Domestic and Foreign Policy Implications

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: In addition to the direct losses – both human lives and damage to buildings and infrastructure – domestically, the earthquake may have implications for the coming presidential and parliamentary elections. In terms of foreign policy, it triggered a quasi-coup in Turkey’s regional and international relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, Elections, and Earthquake
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

5. Even Chances: Defining Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Turkey

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: If Erdogan and the AKP lose the election, the old class will return to power in a spirit of vengeance, armed with the legal and coercive tools of the state, which even Kilicdaroglu and his allies may be unable to restrain. If the People’s Alliance is victorious, it will have five full years to groom capable heirs who can preserve the gains made by the conservative Turkish majority in the past two decades and faithfully follow in the AKP’s footsteps.
Topic:: Elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

6. Erdogan wins the presidency: Causes, implications and horizons

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: It is clear that identity politics still carry much weight in Turkey, that the conservative voting bloc remains the largest, and that the majority of this bloc continues to believe in Erdogan and his ability to lead the country.
Topic:: Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

7. Deadly Rio de Janeiro: Armed Violence and the Civilian Burden

Author:: Bhavani Castro and Julia Links Franciotti
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The public security situation in Brazil is complicated, and particularly in Rio de Janeiro state, which has high levels of violence and criminality. The presence of multiple different criminal groups fighting for territory, coupled with abusive government measures to tackle criminal activity, has created a deadly, high-risk environment for civilians in the state. In 2021, Rio de Janeiro registered 27 violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, a rate lower than states like Bahia and Ceará but significantly higher than the national average of 22. Rio de Janeiro also ranked first among Brazilian states in the number of deaths recorded during police interventions, with at least 1,356 people reportedly killed.1 In May 2021, for example, a police operation against drug traffickers in the Jacarezinho community in Rio de Janeiro city resulted in 29 reported fatalities. While authorities claimed that all those killed in the operation were linked to criminal groups, witnesses reported that police officers entered civilian houses and carried out extrajudicial executions.2 The Jacarezinho operation was the deadliest single event recorded by ACLED in Brazil in 2021. A year later, in May 2022, military and federal police forces clashed with the Red Command (CV) in the Vila Cruzeiro community in the Penha Complex, resulting in at least 26 reported fatalities, including civilians. These are not isolated incidents, but rather indicative of the increasing lethality of violence in Rio de Janeiro in 2021 and 2022, and the rising threat to civilians.
Topic:: Crime, Elections, Violence, Civilians, Militias, Gangs, and Public Security
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Rio de Janeiro

8. Political Violence and the 2023 Nigerian Election

Author:: Andrea Carboni and Ladd Serwat
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 25 February 2023, Nigerians will elect a new president, vice president, and members of the National Assembly. Term limit legislation bars President Muhammadu Buhari from running for a third term, and the end of his presidency marks the longest democratic stretch since independence. Eighteen candidates are vying for the presidency, and at least 4,223 candidates are running for the 469 seats in the National Assembly.1 The presidential frontrunners include Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate who has surprisingly led in the pre-election polls. Two weeks after the national election, on 11 March 2023, 28 out of 36 states will also elect a new governor, with 17 incumbent governors reaching their term limits and hence barred from re-running.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

9. Anti-Government Demonstrations and Separatism in Thailand: Political Disorder Trends Ahead of the 2023 General Election

Author:: Vasan Chen, Pam B., Fiona Wong, and Elliott Bynum
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: With the general election in Thailand anticipated in May 2023, tensions that have sparked unrest in the country in previous years remain unresolved, despite declines in particular types of political violence and demonstration events in the past year. Political disorder in Thailand ranges from violence involving separatists in the Deep South to demonstrations over the continued presence of the monarchy and the military in politics. Following an increase in 2021, political violence involving separatists in the Deep South had been on the wane in 2022 until attacks in August caused a significant spike. Meanwhile, amid ongoing judicial harassment under the lèse-majesté law that criminalizes criticizing the monarchy, anti-government demonstrations calling for an end to the monarchy and the military in politics declined in 2022 compared to the previous two years. Yet the tensions underlying the street protests – as evidenced by the uptick in demonstrations in November during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and the hunger strike initiated earlier this year by two activists charged under the lèse-majesté law – have not been put to rest. The stage is set for the possible reemergence of demonstrations and disorder in Thailand around the upcoming election this year. Drawing on new data,1 this report examines political violence and demonstration trends under the administration of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the leader of the 2014 military coup, from the previous general election in March 2019 to the end of 2022.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Separatism, Demonstrations, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Thailand and Southeast Asia

10. An imperative for women’s political leadership: Lessons from Brazil

Author:: Valentina Sader and Isabel Bernhard
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In politics and positions of power, the lack of equitable representation of women is striking. Women represent 49.7 percent of the world population, yet only twenty-seven countries have a female leader as of February 2023.2 Brazil, which elected its first and only woman president in 2011, has seen slow progress in ensuring greater female participation in politics. Political violence against women, among other factors, is a deterring factor for women’s political participation. Political violence is not a new phenomenon, nor it is exclusive to women. However, evolving analysis has identified differences between political violence generally and political violence against women. The latter is directed at women with the intent of restricting their political participation and active voice, while also generalizing women’s participation as “wrong.” In the Brazilian context, political violence against women is a “physical, psychological, economic, symbolic, or sexual aggression against women, with the purpose of preventing or restricting access to and exercise of public functions and/or inducing them to make decisions contrary to their will.” As such, political violence against women plays an important role in deterring women’s active participation in politics—and even more daunting for black, indigenous, or LGBTQI+ (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer) women. Brazil has a unique opportunity to adjust its legislation and reframe the incentives in the political sphere tackle this issue now, ahead of municipal elections in 2024. Doing so will ensure greater and more equitable political participation, enrich the political debate, strengthen the legislative agenda, and further solidify the country’s democratic ethos, even if other challenges to democracy remain. This report presents solutions Brazil could take to reach this more representative and resilient version of democracy.
Topic:: Civil Society, Diplomacy, Politics, Elections, Women, Leadership, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: South Asia, Brazil, and Latin America

11. Erdoğan's Re-election as President Raises Concerns among Allies

Author:: Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s win in the presidential election and ministerial appointments promises to further weaken democracy, move Türkiye further away from EU standards, and continue so-called personal diplomacy and transactionalism in foreign policy. This could prolong the Turkish parliament’s ratification of Sweden’s accession to NATO.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Elections, European Union, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Sweden

12. Reflections on Nigeria’s Elections: Threats, potential outcomes and relevance to democracy in West Africa

Author:: Paul Osei-Kuffour
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: The upcoming presidential election in Nigeria has generated huge interest and enthusiasm within the sub-region. The election has been described as the most competitive since returning to multi-party democracy in 1999. This paper reflects on the prevailing context barely one month into the election. It discusses the relevance of the election to the sub-region, major reforms around the election and why it is receiving enormous attention in Nigeria and the whole of West Africa. It concludes with an analysis of the factors shaping the potential outcome of the election.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Nigeria

13. The Democratic Quality of Primaries in Ghana: A Look at the 2020 NPP Internal Party Elections

Author:: Gildfred Boateng Asiamah, Francisca Sarpong Owusu, and Alfred Torsu
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: In Ghana, political party primaries are not only a democratic imperative but also a constitutional requirement. However, no laws regulate the conduct of political party primaries in Ghana. Even the involvement of the national election management body, the Electoral Commission (EC), is limited to the counting and declaration of votes. This paper shares insights on the extent to which the parliamentary primaries conform to fundamental principles of democratic elections and identifies the mechanisms that party executives and leadership use to circumvent the democratic processes.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Political Parties, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

14. Shifting Paradigms: The Rise of the Move Forward Party and the Changing Face of Thai Democracy

Author:: Napon Jatusripitak
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: In light of the 2023 general election in Thailand that delivered a surprise victory for the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP), Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting research fellow at the ISEAS ? Yusof Ishak Institute, analyzes the shifting political dynamics in the country and explains the key to MFP’s success. With the election outcome reflecting public’s heightened awareness and desire for political participation and citizen engagement, Thai politics seems prepared for transition from the conservative status quo. Nevertheless, Jatusripitak emphasizes that a sustainable change in domestic governance depends on the MFP’s capacity to carry out the drive for democracy and the conservative establishment’s willingness to accept and adjust.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Social Media, Political Parties, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: Thailand and Southeast Asia

15. Upcoming Elections and Political Turmoil in Pakistan

Author:: Ahmed Bilal Mehboob
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: As the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) delayed a key provincial election due to financial and security-related issues, a potential constitutional crisis looms over the country. In light of the deepening political turmoil in Pakistan, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob explores how this crisis has developed and offers a grim outlook of holding a free and fair election this year. Mehboob argues that the former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s audacious move to seek fresh elections to both the National and Provincial Assemblies have exacerbated party polarization, and Supreme Court decisions for the court cases are unlikely to be fully enforced due to such divide. Mehboob warns that prolonged political crisis may induce military intervention to restore order so that the elections could be pushed ahead.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Constitution, Domestic Politics, Supreme Court, and Imran Khan
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

16. Alaska Electoral Reform: The Top 4 Primary and Ranked-Choice-Voting

Author:: Jerry McBeath
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Why did Alaska develop a top 4, Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system? This article explains the role a blanket primary played in the evolution of Alaska’s nominating process, beset by demands of the rising Alaska Republican Party (ARP) to protect its rights as a political association while the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in California v. Jones constrained states’ interests. In 2019-2020 reformers proposed a new system emphasizing a nonpartisan primary with RCV, which political party leaders opposed. Voters narrowly approved the ballot measure in the 2020 general election; it was used for the first time in a special election, and primaries in 2022 and the following general election. The most significant outcomes were the election of Mary Peltola, a Democrat (and Alaska Native) to the state’s sole seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and reelection of Republican Lisa Murkowski, senior U.S. senator, who defied former President Donald Trump. The article presents information on major political party registrations, showing switching dominance (from Democratic to Republican). However, from 1970 to 2023, a majority of registrants were either nonpartisan or undeclared, a different pattern than found in the other states. The report compares Alaska’s experience with those of other states using RCV, and concludes with a discussion of the broader implications of the Alaska case.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Voting, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: North America, Alaska, and United States of America

17. Alaska’s New Electoral System: Countering Polarization or “Crooked as Hell”?

Author:: Marie O'Reilly, David Lublin, and Glenn Wright
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In November 2020, Alaska introduced a new electoral system, combining a “top four” all-party primary with ranked choice voting (RCV) general elections. Supporters of this reform claimed it would reduce the partisan polarization and minority victories generated by closed primaries and plurality elections. But critics suggest that it could make polarization worse by weakening political parties—an important check on political extremism. These are high-stakes issues that go well beyond Alaska, given the problem of political polarization and the search for institutional reforms in America today. Placing the Alaskan reforms in this broader national context, this paper presents an initial assessment of Alaska’s new system at the 2022 primary and mid-term elections. We find the reform was both consequential and largely beneficial, promoting greater choice for voters, more accommodative campaigning, and generally more moderate outcomes than likely under the old rules.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Voting, and Party System
Political Geography:: North America, Alaska, and United States of America

18. A Dialogue with Chairman of the Taiwan People's Party, Dr. Ko Wen-je

Author:: Wen-je Ko and Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Ko Wen-je is chairperson of the Taiwan People’s Party and a possible candidate in the 2024 Taiwan presidential election. He was mayor of Taipei from 2014 to 2022. Before entering politics, Dr. Ko was a leading transplant surgeon at National Taiwan University College of Medicine.
Topic:: Politics and Elections
Political Geography:: Taiwan and Asia

19. Political Coalitions in Turkey in the Run-Up to the 2023 Elections

Author:: Aurélien Denizeau
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The year 2023, already marked by a deadly double earthquake in the south-east of the country in February, is the year of the centenary of the Republic, but above all an election year for Turkey. The general elections (parliamentary and presidential) will take place on May 14 and are unanimously considered to be crucial for the political future of the country. The electoral campaign is polarized around two major coalitions: the People’s Alliance, led by the presidential AKP and the MHP, which supports the re-election of President Erdoğan; and the Nation Alliance, formed by the main Kemalist party CHP with five other parties, and supporting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as a presidential candidate. Two other coalitions are also present and could tip the election one way or the other: the Labor and Freedom Alliance, centered around the progressive and pro-Kurdish HDP, and the Ancestral Alliance, which supports the nationalist Sinan Oğan. While this political configuration may seem familiar to European observers – where cross-party coalitions are common, especially in parliamentary regimes – there are indications, such as the tensions between the İYİ Party and its partners in the Nation Alliance over support for Kılıçdaroğlu, that call into question the nature of these coalitions: are they motivated by ideological proximity, or are they merely tactical tools for gaining power? In particular, these coalitions seem to derive from the nature of the Turkish political regime and its evolution over the last decade, with an ultra-presidentialization of the system under the successive presidential terms of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan which has led all political actors to position themselves in relation to his personal power. As socio-economic conditions weaken the AKP’s electoral base, the prospects for this election seem more open than ever.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Coalition
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

20. Balancing Security and Innovation: Opposition's View on Turkey's Digital Policies

Author:: Mesut Özcan and Ussal Şahbaz
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey on May 14, 2023, are expected to be closely contested. Polls suggest that the ruling AK Party-led People’s Alliance will lose its majority in parliament, resulting in a hung lower house. This would create an opportunity for multiparty dialogue and temporary alliances on specific policy issues, leading to legislation that is the result of multiparty bargaining rather than the agenda of a dominant party. Against this backdrop, it is crucial to understand the Turkish opposition’s views on a variety of policy issues, with digital policies being a particularly underexplored one. At the intersection of political, economic, and technological issues, digital policies are regulations that have to adapt to a rapidly changing landscape of technological advances on a global scale. Turkey, as a regional power and an upper-middle-income economy, has attempted to take advantage of technological innovations to further promote economic growth and national security purposes. However, the AK Party government's efforts have been met with skepticism from opposition groups as they have fallen short of protecting individual rights and freedoms online. The study is organized into four sections, with an analysis of the political situation on the eve of the upcoming elections, a description of the technological ecosystem in Turkey, an analysis of the evolution of digital policies in Turkey under the AK Party’s successive governments, and a detailed overview of the main opposition parties' digital policy positions. This study thus provides insight into the future of digital policies in Turkey and the potential impact of the upcoming elections on this pivotal issue.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Digital Economy, Internet, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

21. Why Women Haven’t Been Successful in Nigerian Elections

Author:: Elor Nkereuwem
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Women’s representation in Nigerian politics has been on a downward slide since 2011, and the 2023 elections in Africa’s largest economy confirmed the expectations of poor outcomes for women. The number of women in Nigeria’s National Assembly has fallen by 19 percent compared to the last assembly, with women now occupying 3 percent of seats in the Senate and 4 percent in the House of Representatives.1 To understand why Nigerian women performed so poorly in the recent elections, the 2022 primary elections provided insight into the challenges and barriers faced by women aspirants and candidates. The results of the various parties’ primary elections highlight enduring limitations to women’s representation in competitive politics in Nigeria. The country ranks in the bottom ten globally in women’s representation in national parliaments, according to the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU).2 This challenge of representation persists in spite of the near parity of voter registration between men and women in past election cycles.3
Topic:: Elections, Women, Domestic Politics, and Representation
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

22. The INE Debate and the Formation of the Neoliberal Democracy in Mexico

Author:: Luiz Alberto Gómez de Souza
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Although Mexico’s electoral institute was originally born out of struggles for democracy, it has since become a guardian of the neoliberal Mexican state.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Democracy, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

23. Communal Resistance and Land Theft Mark Lead up to Guatemala Elections

Author:: Gladys Tzul Tzul and Simón Antonio Ramón
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Mass protests against taxation measures and the forced displacement of Indigenous communities set the backdrop for Guatemala’s upcoming presidential elections.
Topic:: Elections, Displacement, Protests, Land Rights, and Indigenous
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Guatemala

24. Ecuador Headed for Early Elections After President Dissolves Legislature

Author:: Diana Guarnizo Peralta
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: To head off an impeachment vote, Guillermo Lasso chose the nuclear option. Amid polarization and a protracted political stalemate, what comes next remains uncertain.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Crisis, Impeachment, and Guillermo Lasso
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Ecuador

25. Far Right Holds Chile Hostage

Author:: Carole Concha Bell
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The ultra-conservative Republican Party won a majority on Chile’s new Constitutional Council, delivering a major blow to President Gabriel Boric’s transformative platform.
Topic:: Elections, Constitution, Far Right, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Chile

26. Peru: Infinite Protest and Indolent Elites

Author:: Nicolás Lynch
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The anti-government protests that erupted in December have a clear political agenda: new elections and the convening of a constituent assembly.
Topic:: Elections, Protests, and Elites
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Peru

27. Political Repression in Cuba Ahead of the 2023 Parliamentary Elections

Author:: Sandra Pellegrini and Ana Marco
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 26 March 2023, voters will elect 470 deputies to Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s Power, who, in addition to fulfilling legislative functions during their five-year term, will be nominating Cuba’s next head of state. The government has characterized Cuba’s political system as a grassroots democracy, where candidacies to the parliament largely emerge from municipal authorities and are approved by the National Candidate Commission, a body composed of social organizations, such as labor unions and student associations.1 In practice, however, Cuba’s electoral process has been criticized for blocking the opposition’s access to power. Notably, the Council for Democratic Transition in Cuba, a platform created by opposition members to promote pluralism, freedom, and human rights, has called voters to boycott the upcoming elections after pro-government supporters reportedly prevented several opposition candidates from running in the November 2022 municipal elections.2
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Repression, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean

28. Turkey’s 2023 General Elections and the Kurdish Question

Author:: Ameneh Mehvar and Berk Özlü
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The most consequential elections in Turkey’s recent history are set to be held on 14 May, when Turkish citizens will elect a new president alongside a new parliament. An ideologically disparate coalition of six opposition parties, ranging from secularists, to Islamic conservatives, and Turkish nationalists, have joined forces under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu to unseat Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan has been in power for 20 years, initially as prime minister and then as president since 2014.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Minorities, Elections, and Kurds
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

29. The Normalization of Political Violence and the 2023 Legislative Elections in Greece

Author:: Niki Papadogiannaki and Vicky Yiagopoulou
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Elections in Greece come less than three months after the deadly head-on train collision at Tempe in the north of the country that killed 57 passengers. The incident on 28 February triggered demonstrations against the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, chastising him for initially blaming the collision on “tragic human error.”1 The unrest that followed caused the government to delay announcing the election date, which had been anticipated in April. Due to a new voting law, the elections will be held under a proportional representation system, wherein the leading party needs to secure at least 46% to have a chance to win absolute majority in parliament. However, this percentage has not been reached in the last three decades,2 making a clear victory on 21 May unlikely.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Protests
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

30. The Polarized American Electorate: The Rise of Partisan-Ideological Consistency and Its Consequences

Author:: Alan I. Abramowitz
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: Alan I. Abramowitz presents evidence from American National Election Studies surveys showing that party identification, ideological identification and issue positions have become much more closely connected over the past half century. He argues that as a result, the ideological divide between Democratic and Republican identifiers has widened considerably. The rise of partisan-ideological consistency has contributed to growing affective polarization as well as increasing party loyalty and straight ticket voting.
Topic:: Elections, Ideology, Political Science, Survey, Polarization, Republican Party, and Democratic Party
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

31. Turkey is not the US and Kılıçdaroğlu is not Obama

Author:: Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak focuses on the recent May 2023 elections. He highlights the importance of sectarian identity as one factor underlying President Erdoğan's victory, which came despite the deteriorating economy, the earthquake disaster, and strong polling for his opponent.
Topic:: Sectarianism, Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Earthquake, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

32. Far-Right Violence and the American Midterm Elections: Early Warning Signs to Monitor Ahead of the Vote

Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: A narrow focus on aggregate trends in political violence can obscure important new patterns and warning signs. While the total number of political violence events in the United States declined in 2021 after far-right groups stormed the Capitol at the start of the year, trends since then reflect an ongoing evolution in anti-democratic mobilization on the right — not the aftermath of its high-water mark. Many of the same far-right groups and networks involved in the Capitol attack have adapted their activity to fit the new environment. These adaptations have manifested in multiple ways: the landscape of actors has become more defined; demonstration engagement has shifted, with a focus on protests that allow for the co-option of new supporters; some actors, like the Proud Boys, have increased their use of violence; armed protests have proliferated, particularly at legislative facilities; contentious counter-demonstration trends have intensified; offline propaganda and vigilantism is on the rise, especially motivated by white supremacy and white nationalism; and preparatory actions have surged, including recruitment drives and training exercises. ACLED data indicate that political violence in the United States, and specifically violence involving far-right militias and militant social movements, typically manifests in peaks and lulls. Against this backdrop, the recent decline in aggregate events should not be taken as a sign that the threat of violence has abated. On the contrary, current trends indicate that it may only represent a relative calm before the next storm. The United States faces many latent risks, and a wide range of factors that can contribute to and elevate these risks — from the ascendance of extremist protest drivers like white supremacy, to the increased rate of armed demonstrations at statehouses, to a rise in militia training and recruitment campaigns — are intensifying. Monitoring these factors, and these groups, will be critical for detecting emerging threats, particularly in the lead-up to potential flashpoint events, such as this year’s midterm elections.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, and Far Right
Political Geography:: United States

33. From Political Islam to the Politics of Islam

Author:: Nathan Brown
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: With electoral paths blocked or unpromising, the Islamist project is now being transformed from what it was at the beginning of the last decade
Topic:: Islam, Politics, Religion, and Elections
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34. Shifting Patterns of Arab Politics

Author:: Lisa Anderson
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Over the last seventy-five years, the endlessly shifting coalitions on the chessboard of Arab regional politics seem to have played by the same rules of the game. Yet, as private interests have become a major source of political power, there have been major changes in the powers and purposes of the players
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Private Sector, Strategic Interests, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: Africa and Middle East

35. South Korea's Critical Moment in Digital Currency Policymaking: Between Regulating Cryptocurrencies and Launching a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)

Author:: June Park
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Why is South Korea pilot-testing its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), and what made it shift from non-issuance to consideration? This paper investigates the Bank of Korea (BOK)’s CBDC-related developments amid the geopolitical contest between the U.S. and China. It examines the Moon Jae-in administration’s defiance of decentralized finance (DeFi) and the BOK’s sudden shift from non-issuance to potential issuance, which led to expedited research, development, and pilot-testing of CBDCs. As in the case of the digital yuan, the BOK envisions a hybrid architecture for the digital won, wherein central banks and associated partner institutions are CBDC distributors, though they are distinguished by placing the digital won on distributed ledger technology rather than by centrally controlling it. However, South Korea’s previously rash decision to forego DeFi under an undemocratic process has deprived the country of the time and opportunity to develop new innovations as a leading country in the digital frontier. By sticking only to digitalizing centralized finance, the country now aims to be in “standby” mode for its CBDC launch if and when required, so as not to fall behind in digital financial architecture. This paper scrutinizes the South Korean government’s moves on crypto and CBDCs and argues that 1) the Moon administration has shown incapability in addressing DeFi amid the crypto boom and bust, and 2) the BOK’s shift from non-issuance to potential issuance of the digital won is driven by its interest to uphold central bank independence amid swaying geopolitics between the U.S. and China and an unpredictable upcoming presidential election in South Korea.
Topic:: Economics, Elections, Finance, Cryptocurrencies, and Digital Currency
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

36. Is economic development affected by the leaders’ education levels?

Author:: Chandan Jain, Shagun Kashyap, Rahul Lahoti, and Soham Sahoo
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Although formal education is often considered an indicator of political leaders’ quality, the evidence on the effectiveness of educated leaders is mixed. Besides, minimum education qualifications are increasingly being used as requirements for contesting elections, making it critical to understand the role of politicians’ education in their performance. We investigate the impact of electing an educated politician on economic development in the politician’s constituency in India. We use constituency-level panel data on the intensity of night-time lights to measure economic activity. Our identification strategy is based on a regression discontinuity design that exploits quasirandom outcomes of close elections between educated and less-educated politicians. We find that narrowly electing a graduate leader, as compared to a non-graduate leader, in the state assembly constituency increases the growth rate of night-time lights by about three percentage points in the constituency. As pathways, we find that graduate leaders improve the provision of roads, electricity, and power; however, they do not significantly impact the overall provision of public goods. In comparison with findings from other studies in the literature, our result suggests that the impact of formal education of the leader is weaker than the leader’s other characteristics, such as gender or criminality.
Topic:: Education, Politics, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

37. The Tanzanian state response to COVID-19: Why low capacity, discursive legitimacy, and twilight authority matter

Author:: Amy S. Patterson
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Tanzania received significant global attention for its COVID-19 response during the first year of the pandemic. It did not share pandemic statistics, require masks, implement lockdowns, or close borders; it questioned testing and vaccine efficacy; and it emphasized traditional medicines as a cure. The country’s response reflected a centralized, paternalistic state that emerged under postcolonial president Julius Nyerere and that stressed self-reliance and national unity. Although local officials did have some discretion to respond, the state’s top-down solutions, its low capacity, and the broader campaign against bureaucratic corruption curtailed the space in which they could act. Nyerere’s legitimating discourse of nationalism, self-reliance, and paternalism further problematized the global cooperation needed to address the pandemic and limited the space in which civil society could challenge state actions. The state’s struggle for authority in the face of nonstate actors such as opposition parties and civil society groups led it to embrace strategies such as electoral authoritarianism to maintain control, thereby obscuring transparency and accountability in the pandemic. The focus on state capacity, legitimacy, and authority situate individual leaders’ actions in broader structural contexts, while also showing African state agency.
Topic:: Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Elections, Legitimacy, Capacity, and Authority
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

38. Lebanon after the Elections

Author:: Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Although the parliamentary elections on 15 May did not bring a breakthrough in the Lebanese political scene, the weakening of the dominant parties may facilitate reforms necessary to obtain foreign financial aid. The positive results for candidates related to the 2019 anti-government protests will mean a greater emphasis on the fight against corruption among the political elite. To avoid further instability in Lebanon, the EU could step up its support for that state’s institutions, including the Lebanese army, popular amongst the public.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Foreign Aid, Elections, Protests, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

39. French Politics after the Second Round of Parliamentary Elections

Author:: Amanda Dziubińska
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition fell well short of an absolute majority in the National Assembly (289 required of the chamber’s 577 seats). For both radical right-wing and left-wing voters, the limitation of the president’s power was of more importance than ideological differences. As a result, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally saw an unprecedented result, becoming the main opposition party. In the most likely scenario of a coalition with Republicans or moderate left and right politicians, the presidential camp, as the greatest political force in the Assembly, will seek to continue the current foreign policy and retain its representatives in key ministries.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Emmanuel Macron, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Europe and France

40. Position Paper: Municipal elections in the Westbank: a first step towards inclusive democracy.

Author:: Palthink
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: PalThink for Strategic Studies followed the second phase of the electoral process in its second phase with great interest. It was conducted in eleven governorates in the West Bank, including occupied Jerusalem, and was held in fifty local municipalities. Two-hundred thirty-four lists competed in the elections. According to the Chairman of the Central Election Commission, Hanna Nasser, who spoke at the morning press conference in Al-Bireh city on March 26, 2022, independent parties comprised 64.4% of the candidates, while there were 35.6% party lists. The overall turnout was 53% of those eligible to vote despite the challenges of holding regular and permanent elections in all Palestinian areas, sectors, and institutions.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Local, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

41. New Policy Papaer : The Consequences of No General Elections in Palestine

Author:: Palthink
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This paper tracks the disastrous repercussions of the political and legal absence of Palestinian elections, the distortion of the work of the three authorities as a result of the suspension of some provisions of the Basic Law and the dissolution of the Legislative Council. In addition, the absence of elections in the Palestinian economy is due to the duplication of public politics in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and their direct effects on the general budget considering the lack of planning and oversight, which has affected the level of transparency and accountability. All this has directly affected Palestinian society in all its aspects and has increased tensions such as demonstrations and strikes, which have increased the situation of impunity and crimes without accountability among segments of society. At the international level, the absence of elections and the negative renewal of legitimacy have affected the political project and the international community’s advocacy of the Palestinian cause, considering the rapid global changes and transformations. In the end, the policy paper outlined four main trends in promoting the chances of elections in Palestine.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

42. China’s Role in Korean Security Issues

Author:: Gordon G. Chang
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: China’s great power over North Korea eroded when COVID-19 control measures ended most trade with the Kim regime. Moreover, China’s conflicts with various countries mean Beijing cannot afford to alienate any friend, and Kim Jong Un knows that. Beijing is still influential in Seoul, but it lost much of its clout when the conservative-leaning candidate prevailed in the March 2022 presidential election. China will also suffer a loss in standing because it is paying less attention to Korean affairs and is closing itself off to the world.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Elections, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

43. Why Tunisia’s parliamentary electoral formula needs to be changed

Author:: Alexander Martin and John Carey
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In light of the current political situation in Tunisia, this paper suggests that to avoid producing fragmented parliaments, the Tunisian electoral law should be amended and the Hare Quota-Largest Remainders (HQLR) formula should be replaced. A switch to either the D’Hondt or St.Lague divisors formulas would produce clearer winners and losers and foster accountability while preserving the proportional representation (PR) system.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Legislation, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

44. From inside and outside: Palestinian youth reshaping old electoral systems

Author:: Andrew Findell-Aghnatios and Tala Majzoub
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In preparation for the first national elections in over 10 years, large numbers of Palestinian youth mobilized both inside and outside traditional political structures to voice their demands. This paper examines the modalities of their mobilization, their approaches to political reform, and the barriers that impede their meaningful participation in local politics. It concludes with recommendations on how to ensure greater integration of youth in the Palestinian political sphere.
Topic:: Social Movement, Elections, Democracy, Youth, Participation, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

45. The Future of U.S.-North Korea Relations After the 2022 U.S. Midterm Elections

Author:: Jungkun Seo
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Jungkun Seo, Professor at Kyung Hee University, claims that with the results of the midterm elections in favor of Biden and the Democrats, Biden could likely run for re-election. Added to this, he expects that there will be no innovative strategy to tackle North Korea as Biden would have no choice but to take a hardline stance ahead of the 2024 election if North Korea's provocations make a prominent security threat to the United States. Professor Seo emphasizes that it will be extremely difficult for the U.S. to find a new breakthrough to the stalled peace process on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Elections
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

46. Urgent Messages: Assessing the influence of the US-France-Saudi statement on Lebanon holding timely elections

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The foreign ministers of the United States, France and Saudi Arabia, on September 21, issued a joint statement expressing their support for Lebanon. In the statement issued after representatives of the three countries met on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly, expressed their continuing support for Lebanon’s sovereignty, security, and stability. They stressed upon the importance of holding timely elections in compliance with the constitution to choose a new president and form a new government capable of implementing the structural and economic reforms, urgently needed to address Lebanon’s political and economic crises, specifically those reforms needed to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. In the statement, the three countries further expressed willingness to work jointly with Lebanon to support the implementation of these fundamental reform measures, which are critical to the country’s future prosperity, stability, and security. The three countries acknowledged the critical role the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal Security Forces – as the legitimate defenders of Lebanon’s sovereignty and internal stability – continue to play in protecting the Lebanese people in a time of unprecedented crisis. They affirmed the need for the Lebanese government to implement the provisions of UN Security Council resolutions 1559, 1680, 1701, 2650, and other relevant international resolutions, including those issued by the Arab League, and commit to the Taif Agreement which enables the preservation of national unity and civil peace in Lebanon.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, France, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and United States of America

47. The 2022 Israeli elections: Change, but no change

Author:: Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: On 1 November 2022, Israelis will cast their votes to elect a new parliament for the 25th time since 1948. Between 1949 and 2019 (70 years), Israelis went to the polls 20 times. Each parliamentary assembly (Knesset) averaged 3.5 years. But between 2019 and 2022, Israelis voted four times. Each parliamentary assembly averaged only nine months. This brief examines some of the causes of Israel’s political turmoil and assesses whether it matters for two issues of European concern: Israel’s status as ‘democratic’ ally and the occupation of Palestine. Despite their evident shortcomings with regard to Israeli Arabs and Palestinians, we do not expect the Israeli elections of November 2022 to downgrade the country’s allied status across European capitals. Neither do we anticipate the Israeli elections to moderate the country’s policy of annexation in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Our analysis suggests instead that future Israeli governments will maintain majoritarian Jewish rule and expects it to be propelled by a more unapologetic and repressive ethno-nationalism. This will lead Israel further down the path of exclusionary governance and large-scale human rights violations that risks backfiring in the long term. It will also further erode the moral credibility of the European Union, including the Netherlands, in the areas of human rights and accountability.
Topic:: Human Rights, Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

48. The 2023 Turkish elections: An unmarked road

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: As the date of elections approaches, the political and economic landscape will undoubtedly come into clearer focus. But at this point, amid so many uncertainties, it is still too early to predict electoral outcomes with any confidence.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Elections, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

49. Next-Generation Technology and Electoral Democracy: Understanding the Changing Environment

Author:: Samantha Bradshaw, Kailee Hilt, Eric Jardine, Florian Kerschbaum, Ulrike Klinger, Michael Pal, Aaron Shull, and Wesley Wark
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Democracies around the world are facing growing threats to their electoral systems in the digital age. Foreign interference in the form of dis- and misinformation has already influenced the results of democratic elections and altered the course of history. This special report, the result of a research project conducted in partnership with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Canada, examines these cyberthreats from a Canadian and German perspective. Both Canada and Germany share common goals centred around protecting human rights, democracy and the rule of law, and international peace and security. Using case studies from experts in fields such as computer science, law and public policy, the special report offers recommendations to guide policy makers and stakeholders on how to protect elections from next-generation technologies and the threats they pose to democracy.
Topic:: Environment, Science and Technology, Elections, Democracy, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:: Europe, Canada, Germany, and North America

50. Why the Opposition Win in Barinas, Venezuela Matters

Author:: Ociel Alí López
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The victory of opposition candidate Sergio Garrido in the governorship race in the state of Barinas on January 9 changes the symbolic map of Venezuela’s internal diatribe. The result barely affects the country’s political-territorial map; the governing party swept the regional elections on November 21 with 19 of 23 governorships and 210 of 335 mayoralties. However, it does mark a tremendous change in the sensibility with which the opposition and the government have participated in a political environment that is, if you will, hospitable—for the first time in many years.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Opposition
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

51. Peru: The Broken Dream of Transformative Government?

Author:: Alejandra Dinegro Martínez
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Though Pedro Castillo’s victory initially seemed like a glimmer of hope, the reality of the past eight months has been disappointing.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

52. Costa Rica's Rush to the Right

Author:: Andrés León Araya
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: With second round presidential elections on April 3, the country faces high levels of voter abstention, an increasingly right-wing Congress, and a choice between two candidates ringed by controversy.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Democracy, Presidential Elections, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:: Central America and Costa Rica

53. Living Without Fear: Francia Márquez and Black Feminist Politics in Colombia

Author:: Nadia Mosquera Muriel
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: With her message of inclusion, the Afro-Colombian environmental activist—who earned the third most votes in the March primaries and a VP nomination—is making history.
Topic:: Environment, Elections, Feminism, Activism, and Black Feminism
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

54. Fact Checking Power, April 11, 2002 and Beyond

Author:: David Smilde
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the face of a fraught conflict with missteps and misinformation on both sides, empirically informed analysis offers one tool to cut through the noise.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Conflict, Protests, Misinformation, and Hugo Chavez
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

55. Venezuela's Missing Center

Author:: Francisco Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: With the country caught in a pitched winner-take-all contest, it is unsurprising that voters feel apathetic. Solutions must come from the space between the extremes.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Voting, and Centrism
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

56. COVID-19 and Voter Turnout in Europe and in Korea

Author:: Dong-Hee Joe
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Even while we are suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic, cyclical events arrive mercilessly as scheduled. While some of them are held virtually (i.e., online), some cannot be completely virtualized, at least as of now, including national elections. A major risk in holding an election during a pandemic is the increase of contagion due to the gathering of people in polling stations and campaign events. The opposite direction of causality, that is, from contagion to voter turnout, is another serious, but much less recognized, risk, because voters may refrain from voting due to health concerns. This Brief reviews some of the empirical studies on the relation between the prevalence of COVID-19 and voter turnout in recent elections in Europe and Korea. It also discusses their implications for election administration during pandemic.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, COVID-19, and Turnout
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and South Korea

57. What Role do Local Elections Play for Societal Peace in Nepal? Evidence from Post-Conflict Nepal

Author:: Charlotte Fiedler, Karina Mross, Anna Berg, Prakash Bhattarai, Dorothea Drees, Tim Kornprobst, Alexandra Leibbrandt, Philipp Liegmann, and Maleen Riebsamen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Can local elections introduced in a post-conflict context help to foster societal peace, or do they create new potential for conflict? The value of post-conflict elections has been the matter of controversial academic debates. However, this literature largely neglects to take into account the role of local elections. Based on the literature, we formulate three hypotheses on how local elections might impact societal peace, focussing on the periods before, during and after an election. The first focusses on the potential negative effects of identity-based mobilisation before an election, while the latter two lead us to expect positive effects – either through increased participation through the vote during an election, or improved responsiveness as a consequence after an election. We study each of these three mechanisms in Nepal, a country that experienced almost 10 years of civil war up until 2006 and where local elections were reintroduced in 2017. Combining 79 qualitative interviews at the national and local levels with insights from a large-n survey of 1,400 respondents, we find that overall the reintroduction of local elections had a clear positive impact on societal peace in Nepal. In particular, the results show that the elections increased participation and responsiveness, which has positively affected political trust and reduced (the potential for) political violence. Overall, this paper thereby contributes to the academic debate on the role of elections for peace, calling to attention the positive role local elections can play. It also demonstrates the benefits of moving beyond a narrow definition of peace in relatively stable post-conflict contexts to take a closer look at the effect of political institutions on societal dynamics.
Topic:: Elections, Conflict, Peace, and Society
Political Geography:: South Asia and Nepal

58. Broad support for multiparty elections, little faith in electoral institutions: Uganda in comparative perspective

Author:: Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 election, in which President Yoweri Museveni defeated Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Wine, to claim a sixth term, violence reached unprecedented levels. More than 50 people were killed as security forces broke up opposition party gatherings, and several opposition members were arbitrarily detained (Arinaitwe, 2021). Although Election Day, 14 January, was relatively peaceful, more than 17.5 million Ugandans experienced a multiday Internet blackout, making social media platforms and news websites inaccessible at a time when they were in high demand (BBC, 2021; Moffat & Bennett, 2021). Election observers from the East African Community (EAC) noted malfunctioning biometric voter-verification machines and delays in the delivery of voting materials, among other issues, but joined domestic observers from the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda in labeling the election largely free and fair. The Electoral Commission (EC) ultimately declared Museveni the winner with 58% of the vote – a comfortable lead over Bobi Wine (35%) and his fellow challengers (Moffat & Bennett, 2021; Yiga, 2021). Wine initially filed a court challenge in which he complained of soldiers stuffing ballot boxes, casting ballots for people, and chasing voters away from polling stations, but he later withdrew the case (Muhumuza, 2021). Court challenges after elections are commonplace in Uganda; since the country’s adoption of the fourth constitution in 1995, the outcome of every presidential race except the 2011 poll has been contested in court. Yet the courts have never overturned the results, even when they have acknowledged irregularities (Atuhaire, 2021). Beyond Museveni’s victory, what are the implications of the 2021 election for a country that returned to multiparty competition just 15 years ago? Should Ugandans be enthusiastic about a strong opposition showing as a sign of a healthy democracy at work, or will the prospect of enduring National Resistance Movement rule lead to disillusionment with democracy and the institutions that are meant to safeguard it – the EC and the courts? This policy paper aims to place the events of the 2021 election in perspective by examining public opinion data from Uganda over the past two decades. Despite a decade-long slide in Ugandans’ satisfaction with democracy, this analysis supports previous findings that more and more citizens have become “committed democrats” and view multiparty elections as tools for holding non-performing leaders accountable (Isbell & Kibirige, 2017; Kakumba, 2020; Kibirige, 2018). However, this investigation also points to decreasing trust in institutions that are meant to enforce the most basic of democratic processes – free and fair elections. Importantly, this negative trend cuts across the partisan divide. The analysis also shows that EC performance – both in executing its technical tasks and in refereeing fairly between competing parties – plays a crucial role in citizens’ evaluations of election quality. While public debate about reforming the EC is not new (Kibirige, 2016), the events of the 2021 election may provide impetus for intensifying efforts to increase transparency and improve communication on the part of the commission in order to enhance citizens’ satisfaction with the electoral process.
Topic:: Elections, Multi Party System, Partisanship, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

59. Violence Targeting Civilians Increased During Elections in Papua New Guinea

Author:: Regina Chung, Laura Sorica, Elliott Bynum, and Josh Satre
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Violence targeting civilians in Papua New Guinea rose in the lead-up to and during the campaign, voting, and vote counting periods for the country’s recent national elections. When voting began on 4 July, mob violence at polling stations became deadly amid allegations of voter fraud, missing ballots, and disputed counting. With a decentralized political system that contributes to clientelism, long-standing communal and clan conflicts also reignited during the elections.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, and Civilians
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific and Papua New Guinea

60. Political Violence During Brazil’s 2022 General Elections

Author:: Sandra Pellegrini and Maria Puolakkainen
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Following the first round of voting in Brazil’s general elections on 2 October, left-wing two-time former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) and the ‘Brazil of Hope’ coalition – leads the race with 48.4% of the vote. He was followed closely by far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) and the ‘For the Good of Brazil’ coalition, who outperformed the polls by receiving 43.2% of the votes. Lula’s inability to exceed 50% has forced a runoff election between Lula and Bolsonaro scheduled for 30 October. The narrow margin between the two candidates came as a surprise, as many predicted a first-round victory for Lula (BBC, 3 October 2022). The close outcome underscores the deepening polarization of Brazil’s electorate, with both contenders garnering significant popular support with opposed electoral programs. Amid this polarization, antagonism between Bolsonaro’s administration and the opposition has fueled increased electoral violence, which continues to pose a threat ahead of the presidential runoff election. UN experts warned that threats, intimidation, and political violence “generate terror among the population and deter potential candidates from running for office,” urging Brazilian authorities to ensure the safety of candidates and most-at-risk communities (OHCHR, 22 September 2022).
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

61. The 2022 Israeli Legislative Election and Political Violence in the West Bank

Author:: Ameneh Mehvar and Matan Ayash
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 1 November, Israelis will go to the polls for the fifth time in three-and-a-half years. This latest round of elections follows the dissolution of a historically broad coalition — headed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid — that consisted of right-wing, centrist, left-leaning parties, in addition to the first Arab party to serve in a ruling coalition in Israel’s history. The so-called change coalition was Israel’s first government without Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister since 2009. The formation of an ideologically diverse coalition was borne out of the feeling of necessity to prevent Netanyahu from continuing his tenure. Netanyahu, who is currently on trial for alleged bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, has become the primary fault line in an Israeli political environment that has been deadlocked since 2019. While the majority of seats in the Knesset are held by right-wing parties, reflecting an increasing number of Jewish Israelis who self-identify as right-wing (IDI, 30 August 2022), the rift among the political right over Netanyahu has prevented the formation of a right-wing government, creating two competing blocs that have shaped Israeli politics since 2019.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

62. Political Violence During Brazil’s 2022 Presidential Runoff

Author:: Maria Puolakkainen and Sandra Pellegrini
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Following his victory in the presidential runoff election on 30 October, President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva described Brazil as “one country, one people, one great nation.” While this speech may indicate the incoming president’s willingness to seek unity, it comes at a time of heightened political polarization in Brazil. Inflammatory rhetoric around the elections and spikes in political violence throughout the election period have raised concerns over the potential for further outbreaks of unrest, even beyond the aftermath of the runoff. The contestation of the election results and calls for military intervention by supporters of outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro present an ongoing challenge to the “peace and unity” promoted by President-elect Lula in his victory speech (Folha de S.Paulo, 31 October 2022).
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

63. Turkish Opposition Focuses on Foreign Policy Corrections

Author:: Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: According to polls, the Turkish opposition candidate has a chance to defeat Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in next year’s presidential elections. Although the opposition parties’ vision of foreign policy is not consistent, as evidenced by public divergences in, for example, the approach to the EU or the war in Ukraine, they remain consistent with the need to improve Türkiye’s relations with the West.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

64. Taiwan’s Local Elections: Defeat of the Ruling DPP Amidst Negative Campaigns

Author:: Kai-Ping Huang
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Taiwan held “nine-in-one” local elections on November 26, 2022, and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) lost many seats amidst negative campaigns, while the KMT emerged as the winner of the election. However, Kai-Ping Huang, an Associate Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University, evaluates the biggest losers are voters who were not offered quality campaigns. Professor Huang defines the campaign’s major issues as Scandals of Plagiarism, Poor Quality of Infrastructure, Discredited Pandemic Control Performance and Economic Difficulties and Anti-China Campaign Backlash. In addition, she states that it is too early to say whether the KMT will have an advantage in the upcoming presidential election. The KMT must clarify its position on national identity. The Taipei voters don`t appreciate what the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has done to the capital, and most voters do not believe that the TPP is a credible alternative to the two mainstream parties. Therefore, TPP needs to coordinate with the KMT to defeat the ruling DPP can be an option.
Topic:: Education, Elections, Democracy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Taiwan and Asia

65. Only game in town? Inequality and demand for democracy in Africa – a micro perspective

Author:: Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In this paper, the author explores whether perceived inequality is associated with demand for democracy among Africans. Past research has diverged on whether macro-level inequality should increase or decrease support for democracy, with some arguing that people might see democracy as a solution to inequality, and others that people might see it as a cause. I advance this literature by using a perceptual measure of inequality from Afrobarometer: how people feel their living situation compares to others’ in their country. I find that perceived equality is significantly associated with greater demand for democracy, while perceptions of relative deprivation and relative advantage are both associated with lower democratic demand. These effects are largely significant above and beyond the effect of absolute poverty and known predictors of support for democracy, such as free and fair elections and level of education.
Topic:: Education, Elections, Democracy, Inequality, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Africa

66. Broad support for multiparty elections, little faith in electoral institutions: Uganda in comparative perspective

Author:: Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 election, in which President Yoweri Museveni defeated Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Wine, to claim a sixth term, violence reached unprecedented levels. More than 50 people were killed as security forces broke up opposition party gatherings, and several opposition members were arbitrarily detained (Arinaitwe, 2021). Although Election Day, 14 January, was relatively peaceful, more than 17.5 million Ugandans experienced a multiday Internet blackout, making social media platforms and news websites inaccessible at a time when they were in high demand (BBC, 2021; Moffat & Bennett, 2021). Election observers from the East African Community (EAC) noted malfunctioning biometric voter-verification machines and delays in the delivery of voting materials, among other issues, but joined domestic observers from the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda in labeling the election largely free and fair. The Electoral Commission (EC) ultimately declared Museveni the winner with 58% of the vote – a comfortable lead over Bobi Wine (35%) and his fellow challengers (Moffat & Bennett, 2021; Yiga, 2021). Wine initially filed a court challenge in which he complained of soldiers stuffing ballot boxes, casting ballots for people, and chasing voters away from polling stations, but he later withdrew the case (Muhumuza, 2021). Court challenges after elections are commonplace in Uganda; since the country’s adoption of the fourth constitution in 1995, the outcome of every presidential race except the 2011 poll has been contested in court. Yet the courts have never overturned the results, even when they have acknowledged irregularities (Atuhaire, 2021). Beyond Museveni’s victory, what are the implications of the 2021 election for a country that returned to multiparty competition just 15 years ago? Should Ugandans be enthusiastic about a strong opposition showing as a sign of a healthy democracy at work, or will the prospect of enduring National Resistance Movement rule lead to disillusionment with democracy and the institutions that are meant to safeguard it – the EC and the courts? This policy paper aims to place the events of the 2021 election in perspective by examining public opinion data from Uganda over the past two decades. Despite a decade-long slide in Ugandans’ satisfaction with democracy, this analysis supports previous findings that more and more citizens have become “committed democrats” and view multiparty elections as tools for holding non-performing leaders accountable (Isbell & Kibirige, 2017; Kakumba, 2020; Kibirige, 2018). However, this investigation also points to decreasing trust in institutions that are meant to enforce the most basic of democratic processes – free and fair elections. Importantly, this negative trend cuts across the partisan divide. The analysis also shows that EC performance – both in executing its technical tasks and in refereeing fairly between competing parties – plays a crucial role in citizens’ evaluations of election quality. While public debate about reforming the EC is not new (Kibirige, 2016), the events of the 2021 election may provide impetus for intensifying efforts to increase transparency and improve communication on the part of the commission in order to enhance citizens’ satisfaction with the electoral process.
Topic:: Elections, Party System, Multi Party System, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

67. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)

Author:: Sarah J. Lohmann, Lucas M. Cox, Denise Feldner, Trevor P. Helmy, and Katherine L. Kuzminski
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing resilience in every aspect of critical infrastructure and civil society. As terrorists hone their skills to operate lethal drones, use biometric data to target innocents, and take advantage of the chaos left by pandemics and natural disasters for nefarious purposes, NATO forces must be prepared to respond and prevent terrorist events before they happen. Big-data analytics provides potential for NATO states to receive early warning to prevent pandemics, cyberattacks, and kinetic attacks. NATO is perfecting drone operations through interoperability exercises, and space is being exploited by adversaries. Hypersonic weapons are actively being used on the battlefield, and satellites have been targeted to take down wind farms and control navigation. This handbook is a guide for the future, providing actionable information and recommendations to keep our democracies safe today and in the years to come.
Topic:: NATO, Climate Change, Terrorism, Infrastructure, Elections, Drones, Pandemic, Resilience, Supply Chains, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

68. Venezuela's 2024 Elections: Understanding Participation under Unfree and Unfair Conditions

Author:: Ryan C. Berg and Henry Ziemer
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: For many observers, the upcoming presidential elections in Venezuela serve as a focal point on which to pin hopes for a democratic transition. However, the challenges faced by the opposition—from internal divisions to an ongoing humanitarian crisis, captured electoral institutions, and persistent human rights abuses—cannot be understated. While there is potential for elections in 2024 to generate momentum and re-galvanize resistance to the Maduro regime, the balance sheet of risks and rewards remains indecisive. This report breaks down the positive and negative aspects of elections in Venezuela and outlines three likely scenarios for policymakers to consider as Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election approaches.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Leadership
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

69. Brazil: Five Phenomena and Three Scenarios

Author:: Lauri Tahtinen
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Brazil heads into the second round of its general election on Sunday, October 30. This will include runoffs for the governorships in 12 of Brazil’s 26 states, including São Paulo, the most populous and wealthy state. However, most eyes are on the presidential race in which incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is seeking his second term in office and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking his third. In the first round on Sunday, October 2, Lula received 48.4 percent of the vote and Bolsonaro received 43.2 percent. This analysis paints three scenarios for Brazil’s election. The baseline for these scenarios is Lula’s narrow win, and a narrow win for Lula remains the most plausible outcome. If the trends prevalent in September have accelerated through October, Bolsonaro could win narrowly. Conversely, if the trends of September decelerate or even reverse in October, Lula could win handsomely. Based on the first-round results, earlier runoffs, and simple election math, a major Bolsonaro victory is not a realistic outcome.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Leadership, Voting, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

70. Taiwan Update: Local Elections and Cross-Strait Relations

Author:: Hungdah Su Dean, Yeong-Kang Chen, Min-Hua Huang, Eric Yu, Yeh-Chung Lu, Andrew Nathan, and Thomas J. Christensen
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: A high-level academic delegation will update our audience on current political events in Taiwan and developments in cross-strait relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

71. Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author:: Alper Coşkun and Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Turkey is heading toward a set of twin elections that could have momentous consequences for the country’s future. In June 2023 at the latest, Turkish voters will be asked to choose a new president and a new parliamentary majority. For the past two decades, the Turkish political landscape has been dominated by the Justice and Development (AK) Party and its uniquely successful leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After having ruled the country single-handedly since 2002, Erdoğan became the first executive president of Turkey in 2018, following a tightly contested constitutional change. He has come out victorious in every round of elections since the start of his political career. And yet, after two decades, his popularity is faltering, raising the prospect of political change. The turning point for Turkey’s political system has been the transition to a presidential system with the constitutional amendment of 2017.1 Since the start of multiparty elections in 1946, Turkey had had a parliamentary system, and since 2002 it has had single-party governments. With Erdoğan at the helm, the AK Party has won nearly all elections over the past two decades. It only failed to win a parliamentary majority in the most recent elections,2 in June 2018, and since then has been forced to rely on the support of the hyper-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to secure control of the legislature.3 Alper Coşkun Alper Coşkun is a senior fellow in the Europe Program and leads the Türkiye and the World Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. @IACOSKUN The transition to the presidential system forced a realignment of the political constellation. The structural impact of this transition has led to the creation of two major political alliances. The Cumhur, or People’s, Alliance is led by the AK Party and includes the MHP and a small number of marginal parties. The Millet, or Nation, Alliance is led by the main opposition, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP); it also includes the center-right/nationalist İYİ Party as well as the Saadet and Demokrat parties, which appeal to a smaller electoral base. The first real test of this alliance-based politics was the municipal elections of March 2019, where the opposition alliance performed markedly better. Millet-backed opposition candidates won the electoral race in nine out of Turkey’s ten major metropolitan cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. These cities had been ruled by mayors linked to the AK Party and its predecessors since 1994. Now the alliances are gearing up to contest the critical 2023 elections. The ruling Cumhur Alliance’s candidate will be Erdoğan, who will try to win a third term as Turkey’s president. The candidate of the Millet Alliance is still unknown. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as the leader of the main opposition party, is intent on becoming the Millet candidate, but there are doubts about his electability against Erdoğan. Meral Akşener, the chairwoman of İYİ—the second-largest opposition party—has so far sidelined herself from the presidential race. Ekrem Imamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, are also possible presidential candidates for the opposition. At present, all four potential candidates for the opposition are polling better than Erdoğan—fueling speculation about political change.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

72. The Most Important Election in Brazil’s History

Author:: Bryan Pitts
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Brazil faces a stark choice in its presidential runoff Sunday. Can Lula and the Left overcome Bolsonaro’s misinformation and attempts to buy the vote?
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Leftist Politics, Misinformation, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

73. Kenya’s Political Violence Landscape in the Lead-Up to the 2022 Elections

Author:: Clionadh Raleigh and Caleb Wafula
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Kenya went to the polls on 9 August 2022 after a five-year cycle, marking the third general election since the promulgation of a new constitution in 2010. This represents the end of the second and final term of the Jubilee Alliance party government under President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, a current presidential contender. The presidential campaign between Raila Odinga — another ‘legacy’ candidate who has previously run four unsuccessful presidential campaigns — and Ruto has experienced some local troubles, but the focus during this campaign is whether the Kenyan electoral landscape has really shifted to emphasize class, demographic, and elite divisions.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

74. Measuring the Impact of Campaign Finance on Congressional Voting: A Machine Learning Approach

Author:: Matthias Lalisse
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: How much does money drive legislative outcomes in the United States? In this article, we use aggregated campaign finance data as well as a Transformer based text embedding model to predict roll call votes for legislation in the US Congress with more than 90% accuracy. In a series of model comparisons in which the input feature sets are varied, we investigate the extent to which campaign finance is predictive of voting behavior in comparison with variables like partisan affiliation. We find that the financial interests backing a legislator’s campaigns are independently predictive in both chambers of Congress, but also uncover a sizable asymmetry between the Senate and the House of Representatives. These findings are cross-referenced with a Representational Similarity Analysis (RSA) linking legislators’ financial and voting records, in which we show that “legislators who vote together get paid together”, again discovering an asymmetry between the House and the Senate in the additional predictive power of campaign finance once party is accounted for. We suggest an explanation of these facts in terms of Thomas Ferguson’s Investment Theory of Party Competition: due to a number of structural differences between the House and Senate, but chiefly the lower amortized cost of obtaining individuated influence with Senators, political investors prefer operating on the House using the party as a proxy.
Topic:: Corruption, Elections, Legislation, and Money
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

75. Fragile States Index 2022 – Annual Report

Author:: Nate Haken, Daniel Woodburn, Juliette Gallo-Carelli, Asa Cooper, and Dylan Souquet
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Fund for Peace
Abstract:: The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Elections, Fragile States, Political stability, Violence, Crisis Management, Innovation, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Sudan, Libya, Brazil, South America, North Africa, Haiti, Somalia, Mali, Guinea, Sahel, Global Focus, and Lake Chad Basin

76. Youth Politics and Activism in Turkey

Author:: Bahar Baser
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Media outlets and polling companies have started publishing reports that claim the young people’s vote will be a game-changer in the upcoming elections. It is Generation Z, the so-called millennials, who are going to make a political statement with their vote in the Turkish elections. They constitute a sizeable portion of the eligible voters (20%) and around half of them will be casting their votes for the first time (RIS Report, 2022). Whether we are talking about Generation X, Y or Z, young people do not constitute a monolithic bloc in Turkey. The country is polarised along different ethnic, religious and ideological fault lines, and so is its youth. This is reflected in their activism, as well as their everyday lives. Turkish youth became an object of scrutiny for researchers during and after the Gezi protests and their repertoires of action and political participation were analysed by researchers both in and outside Turkey. However, new systematic studies are needed if the results the polling companies are receiving with regard to young people’s preferences and lifestyle choices in a changing Turkey are to be explained. Evidence shows that wooing youth support features on the parties’ political agendas. Strategies include investing in youth branches, organising events and festivals, as well as creating opportunities for young people, to keep them loyal to the party agendas. Do young people only express their frustration with the system through demonstrations on the streets or social media posts? No: young people are also leaving the country in protest. My recent research reveals that a sizeable group of young people tend to plan for futures outside Turkey, and that they would take any opportunity that presented itself abroad in order to leave the country permanently or temporarily.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Youth, and Activism
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

77. Analysis of the Botnets that Operated in Honduras During the Primary and General Elections of 2021

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: The Carter Center analyzed social media in Honduras during the 2021 electoral process, focusing on the period around the primaries in March and the general election in November. The purpose was to assess the political debate on social networks during the elections, the extent of disinformation and how it spread, and the role played by Honduran politicians.
Topic:: Elections, Media, Social Media, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, and Honduras

78. Risk-Limiting Audits: A Guide for Election Observation Efforts

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: The risk-limiting audit (RLA) is a statistical technique for limiting the risk of certifying an incorrect election outcome — that is, the risk that the apparent winner did not in fact receive the most votes. A random sample of paper ballots is visually checked by auditors, and the results are compared with the outcome reported by the tabulator/scanner equipment. If there is sufficiently strong statistical evidence based on this sample that the reported outcome was correct, the audit stops and the tabulated result is confirmed. If evidence from the sample is inconclusive, another sample is drawn, potentially progressing all the way to a full hand recount. The RLA thus either confirms the reported outcome or corrects it.
Topic:: Elections, Election watch, Election Observation, and Audit
Political Geography:: Global Focus

79. Covidocracy in the Election Process – An Analysis of the Pandemic Narrative Serving the State Capture

Author:: Srdan Hercigonja
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: In this analysis, the predominant narratives of the pandemic shall be explored, as well as the ways they have impacted the state capturing process in the period from the second half of 2021 till 3 April 2022, when the general and presidential elections took place in Serbia. The crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic denuded the authoritarian tendencies in Serbia, both in the state and in the society, making visible the size and scope of state capturing. To what extent this process has set in may be best visible by the way the institutions and authorities have made decisions during the pandemic management, as well as by the decision they have taken. It has been 26 months since the first infection case was registered in Serbia and since the two-month long state of emergency was introduced. Ever since, decisions have been taken towards reducing the virus spread, but also disregarding the opinions of experts in this field (epidemiologists, virologists and immunologists). The decisions were made depending on the ruling elite’s political interests. For the first year and a half after the outbreak, the mainstream discourse imposed by the authorities was that the state and the society were at war. All the elements of war discourse were noticeable in the statements of public officials, even experts – there is an enemy out there whom we must beat (the virus), emergency measures like curfew were introduced, the story of doctors like frontline warriors was imposed, and allies were also chosen for this war. The narrative of war like predominant discourse of fighting the pandemic provided legitimacy for the highest officials to take the crucial decisions in countering the pandemic – precisely this enabled the President of the Republic or the Prime Minister to take and communicate the most important decisions regarding this “war”, while experts were placed at the margins of decision-making. Finally, the top officials are competent for declaring victory at war, and the ruling party declared the victory over the pandemic twice, both times on the eve of elections – first time in May 2020, and second in March 2022. However, during the autumn 2021, the narrative of war as the prevalent one during the pandemic was replaced by quiet and silence, the story of the pandemic was pushed to the margins, which was particularly evident in the April 2022 pre-election period.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Serbia

80. Breaking Barriers to Women’s Participation in Politics in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine

Author:: Daryna Dvornichenko
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: For Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, the long road to EU membership requires not only economic convergence and approximation of their laws with the EU acquis communautaire but also the adoption of EU fundamental values, including progress toward gender equality. In the context of their efforts to pursue reforms and to build democratic institutions, these countries have no choice but incorporate a gender lens into their political discourse and practice. However, their common underlying characteristics, as well as a similar level of external pressure from donors and international organizations, are not necessarily leading to similar results for their gender-related reform attempts, in particular when it comes women’s participation in politics. This paper examines the barriers that still inhibit women’s political participation in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. It explains the main roots of women’s underrepresentation, first looking at public attitudes in the three countries regarding the efficiency of women politicians and the male-dominated political environment. Based on interviews with women politicians in the three countries, the research focuses on the use of gender quotas for participation in elections at the national and local levels. It describes the path to introducing gender quotas and explores the factors that determine the limits of their effectiveness. The paper then looks at other instruments for mainstreaming gender-balanced policies and their enduring limitations. The most tangible positive results related to these reforms are the introduction of gender quotas in elections in all three countries, a shift to full proportional representation in the electoral system that resulted in a rapid increase in the proportion of women in parliament in Moldova, and the introduction of a rule mandating the replacement of elected women by other women in case of leaving their seat early in Georgia at the local and national level. Women politicians continue to face many gender-related challenges. Non-transparent recruitment in political parties, loopholes in legislation that allow parties to circumvent gender quotas, and the weakness and ineffectiveness formal institutions intended to mainstream gender equality are key obstacles for women in starting and developing a political career. At the societal level, much of the public still holds deep-seated gender stereotypes that act as barriers to women taking more active part in the political decision-making process. The numerous persistent factors that hamper women’s political participation prove that Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine still have much to do to create a level playing field for men and women in politics. The paper offers recommendations for domestic and external actors—including lawmakers, political parties, the media, and foreign donors—on possible ways to enhance women’s participation with policy approaches concerning female leadership and gender-balanced decision-making.
Topic:: Elections, Women, Domestic Politics, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

81. Risks and Benefits of i-Voting in Public Opinion: Evidence from Poland

Author:: Izabela Kapsa and Magdalena Musial-Karg
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Apart from benefits, internet voting security is most frequently discussed by opponents and supporters of this form of electoral participation. Although this voting method is not available in Poland, the debate on the implementation of i-voting appears in each election. The COVID-19 pandemic showed a great need to implement additional remote voting methods in the elections, and increasingly more countries are considering the introduction of i-vote in the future. Although there is no plan for the nearest future in Poland, citizens' opinions suggest that this voting procedure would meet many of its users. The paper's main aim is to analyse Poles' opinions about the risks and benefits of internet voting. The results of our own studies are based on a survey among Poles regarding their views on internet voting. The main goal is to verify if Poles more often highlight the benefits than risks of i-voting, and if the opinions about risks and benefits of i-voting differ depending on respondents’ sex, age, education and domicile.
Topic:: Security, Elections, Voting, Innovation, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

82. "I Am Not Going”: Determinants of Social Activity before Poland’s Ghost Election

Author:: Kamila Rezmer-Płotka
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article analyses political opposition toward the date of presidential elections and conducting them in the correspondence form on May 10, 2020, in Poland. The study is embedded in the theories of quasi-militant democracy and the emergence of social movements. The method used in the study is the qualitative analysis of media messages of the main news websites in Poland. Mainly in terms of the activity and arguments of citizens against the elections in the form of correspondence. The presidential elections revealed the imperious relationship between the government and citizens in Poland’s becoming quasimilitant democracy. The emphasis was on the elements regarding the organisation of elections on May 10 that could impact a social movement’s emergence. The most significant role in stopping the May 10 elections was played by institutional opposition in the form of local self-governments’ civil disobedience and the Senate’s action, which efficiently blocked the party’s initiative. The article accounts for how election matters determined the social mobilisation and activity of the new social movement. This paper’s main finding is that institutional opposition may prevail over the social one in the pandemic.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Democracy, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

83. The Israeli Government Falls: New Election and Implications for U.S.-Israel Relations

Author:: David Makovsky and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Watch an expert webcast examining the collapse of the year-old coalition government, the impact on President Biden’s upcoming Middle East trip, and the potential consequences for broader U.S.-Israel policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

84. The impact of the quota system on women parliamentary representation in Morocco: A series of reforms or a regressive path?

Author:: Aberrafie Zaanoun
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: While the gradual improvement of the quota system increased the number of women in parliament, experiences so far show that the quota system has been used as an electoral tool by a political class that exploited affirmative action measures to seize more representative seats through kinship and personal connections. This paper looks at the contexts surrounding the implementation of the women’s quota in the Moroccan electoral system, its advantages and disadvantages, as well as the possibility of redirecting the quota system to achieve true political empowerment for women.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Democracy, Representation, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:: Africa and Morocco

85. The Lebanese diaspora and the upcoming elections: Lessons from the 2018 voting

Author:: Georgia Dagher
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: This report examines the choices of the Lebanese diaspora in the 2018 parliamentary elections—the first time out of country voting was allowed—in order to offer some insights on the diaspora’s vote potential impact in the upcoming elections. Wide efforts to encourage the diaspora to vote, led by Lebanese activists all over the world, have succeeded in getting over 225,624 Lebanese on the out of country voters’ list—almost a threefold increase from the last elections in 2018.
Topic:: Diaspora, Elections, Voting, Participation, and Identity
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

86. The 25 July 2022 Scenarios in Tunisia: Uncertainty after the Referendum

Author:: Zied Boussen
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The referendum on 25 July 2022 will mark yet another important date in Tunisia’s history. This paper seeks to examine these different scenarios, analyze their consequences, study their stakeholders, and determine their likelihood.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Elections, Referendum, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

87. Youth participation in Tunisia’s elections: Some possible solutions

Author:: Lamia Zargouni
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Tunisian youth’s limited participation in political life dates back to before the January 2011 revolution, and recent elections also provide clear examples of the lack of youth participation both as voters and as candidates. This article examines the reasons behind this lack of political participation and presents several ways forward to ensure more inclusive participation for Tunisian youth.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Youth, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

88. The Data Story: Uttar Pradesh Elections 2022 – Phase 1

Author:: DataCommons @ CPR
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: In the first phase of the Uttar Pradesh elections of 2022, 58 assembly constituencies (ACs) will go to the polls. Polling will take place on 10 February, 2022. In this note, we first analyze and provide social context for the historical electoral trends across these 58 assembly constituencies. Second, in collaboration with Datalok, we provide a detailed analysis of polling booths from the 2017 state election. We show how the consolidation among Hindu voters in the aftermath of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots drastically shifted electoral outcomes in the region, and we describe how current politics may affect electoral outcomes in the 2022 election.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Voting, and Data
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Uttar Pradesh

89. Securitization of Disinformation in NATO’s Lexicon: A Computational Text Analysis

Author:: Akın Ünver and Ahmet Kurnaz
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Following the Russian meddling in the 2016 US elections, disinformation and fake news became popular terms to help generate domestic awareness against foreign information operations globally. Today, a large number of politicians, diplomats, and civil society leaders identify disinformation and fake news as primary problems in both domestic and foreign policy contexts. But how do security institutions define disinformation and fake news in foreign and security policies, and how do their securitization strategies change over years? Using computational methods, this article explores 238,452 tweets from official NATO and affiliated accounts, as well as more than 2,000 NATO texts, news statements, and publications since January 2014, presenting an unsupervised structural topic model (stm) analysis to investigate the main thematic and discursive contexts of these texts. The study finds that NATO’s threat discourse and securitization strategies are heavily influenced by the US’ political lexicon, and that the organization’s word choice changes based on their likelihood of mobilizing alliance resources and cohesion. In addition, the study suggests that the recent disinformation agenda is, in fact, a continuity of NATO’s long-standing Russia-focused securitization strategy and their attempt to mobilize the Baltic states and Poland in support of NATO’s mission.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Elections, Disinformation, and Securitization
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and United States of America

90. Somalia (Horn of Africa, part 2 of 2)

Author:: Guled Ahmed
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Guled Ahmed joins the program to discuss the political climate in Somalia, its recent elections, security conditions, and the role of external actors including the African Union, Gulf states, Turkey, and the U.S.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Elections, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Turkey, Somalia, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and Horn of Africa

91. Iraq's Deepening Political Crisis

Author:: Farhad Alaaldin and Robert Ford
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Ten months on from last October’s elections, Iraq still does not have a new government and faces a deepening political crisis. To understand the current situation's perils and what may be next for the future of the country, we are joined by Farhad Alaaldin, chairman of the Iraq Advisory Council, and Robert Ford, MEI Senior Fellow and former Ambassador to Syria and Algeria.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

92. France's Presidential Election and Foreign Policy

Author:: Intissar Fakir, Cinzia Bianco, and Perla Srour-Gandon
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Intissar Fakir, Cinzia Bianco, and Perla Srour-Gandon discuss the results of the recent French presidential election and what they mean for France's foreign policy and the Middle East.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Europe and France

93. Lula’s Victory, the New Left and the Future of Latin America

Author:: Rafael Ramírez
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The election of Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva as the new president of Brazil, consolidates the advancement of a New Left in Latin America: a progressive movement, with strong popular and democratic content, promoting an agenda where the fight against poverty, inequality, climate change and respect for human rights is key.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Leftist Politics, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

94. Italy’s Election and the Rise of Hard Right Conservativism

Author:: Andrea Dessì and Vassilis Ntousas
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Should the polling prove accurate, Italy will soon be governed by its most radical right-wing government since World War II. Come 25 September, a coalition of political parties – dominated by the hard-right and anti-migrant Brothers of Italy party (Fratelli d’Italia – FdI) and Matteo Salvini’s League (Lega) – appears poised to secure a clear, if not resounding, majority in parliament. This will return Italy to a right-wing government, the first since Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right coalition collapsed amidst the risk of Italian bankruptcy back in 2011. Despite its neo-fascist roots, heading the polls with about 25 per cent of the vote is Giorgia Meloni’s FdI, the frontrunner to become the country’s first female premier and first far-right head of government in Italy’s Republican history.[1] Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Go Italy (Forza Italia) party are the other major members of the right-wing coalition, whose impact if elected will reverberate far beyond Italy. For Europe, the polls are another indication of the spread of hard-right conservativism, following the French National Front’s electoral gains over the past few years and the recent victory by the Sweden Democrats this September.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Far Right, Political Parties, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

95. Italy’s Far-Right and the Migration Debate: Implications for Europe

Author:: Julian M. Campisi and Cecilia Emma Sottilotta
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Following the collapse of Mario Draghi’s national unity government in July, Italy is set to elect a new parliament on 25 September 2022, the first general election since 2018. Grappling with a myriad of socio-economic and energy challenges, the next government will face significant hardship in turning the tide, with Italy widely expected to be governed by a right-wing conservative government at a time when all indications point to Italy moving into recession in 2023. A conservative coalition of far- and centre-right parties, led by Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia – FdI), the League (Lega) and Go Italy (Forza Italia) party, is expected to win a significant majority of seats in parliament. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing inflation and energy crisis have dominated the electoral campaign, other issues should not be overlooked, not least in light of their impact on domestic politics as well as broader Italy–EU relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Migration, Elections, Far Right, Political Parties, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

96. Lebanon’s Perennial Limbo: A Paralysed System Teetering on the Brink

Author:: Giulia Gozzini
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of a catastrophic and seemingly endless downward spiral that began in 2019, a paralysing political stalemate has once again gripped Lebanon. Close to three months have passed since the Lebanese were called to the polls on 15 May, the first parliamentary elections held since the October 2019 revolution (thawra) and the 2020 Beirut blast. Yet, nothing seems to have changed. While the results did not bring about a significant political breakthrough, they did break the monopoly of traditional parties, with the election of 13 independent candidates associated with the popular protests of 2019.[1] This is a noticeable occurrence given that it was produced by a system which is tailor-made for the political élite to maintain the status quo. That said, the vote can hardly qualify as a victory of the so-called “forces of change”. Likewise, it would be unwise to claim – as many in the media did in the aftermath of the vote – that the results represent a defeat for the Shia Islamist party, Hezbollah.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

97. Efforts to mitigate elections in SADC countries becoming Covid-19 spreaders

Author:: Craig Moffat
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Gwede Mantashe, the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, has threatened to judicially review the Zondo Commission’s (‘the Commission’) findings against him. This decision highlights legal and political weaknesses in South Africa’s democratic system. The law is unclear on whether the findings of a Commission of Inquiry (COI) could constitute administrative action reviewable in terms of the Promotion of Administrative Justice Act 3 of 2000 (PAJA). This was not sufficiently dealt with by the High Court the only time it previously faced a judicial review of a COI’s findings. Even if COI findings could constitute administrative action, it seems that the Commission’s findings and recommendations concerning Mantashe in particular are unlikely to be reviewable in terms of PAJA. The principle of legality would be his most viable option for a legal challenge, but on analysis it is unlikely Mantashe would succeed on this basis either. Moreover, challenging the findings of this Commission on legally dubious grounds underscores political weaknesses in the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party, and consequently the electoral system more generally. Not only does the proposed challenge by a senior party member in Cabinet undermine the ANC’s steadfast commitment to end entrenched corruption, but it also demonstrates that the party’s step-aside rule is too narrow. The rule does not impose political accountability on members implicated by COI findings unless they are criminally charged by the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA). This sets the bar too low for political accountability, which should not be equated with criminal liability. The ANC’s lenient stepaside rule, and its members’ use of legal technicalities to avoid political accountability, is dangerous in a proportional representation system with a one-party-dominant legislature. Voters elect a party in a closed list system, and so depend entirely on the ruling party to hold its members individually accountable for wrongdoing. The ANC needs to prove to the electorate that it takes this job seriously
Topic:: Elections, Crisis Management, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

98. Analyzing Voter Turnout in Lebanon: Political Change in Times of Crisis

Author:: Dana Abed, Rihab Sawaya, and Nadim Tabbal
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In May 2022, Lebanon is hosting its first parliamentary elections since the popular uprising of October 2019, when massive protests took place to denounce the current ruling elites. This research looks at voter turnout and behavior on the eve of the elections and examines the will for political change. It argues that in the current Lebanese context, there needs to be further political awareness-raising, and campaigns should be more inclusive of women and the queer community. Independent campaigns should focus on developing strong governing capacities that voters can trust, and create further space for civic and political engagement on the local and national levels.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

99. How Authoritarian Legacies Play a Role in Shaping Electoral Volatility in Asia

Author:: Don S. Lee and Fernando Casel Bertoa
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: High electoral volatility can result in the disillusionment of the democratic system, allowing illiberal politicians and anti-political-establishment parties to gain a foothold. In this briefing, Don S. Lee, an Assistant Professor in the School of Governance and the Department of Public Administration at Sungkyunkwan University, and Fernando Casal Bertoa, an Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham, evaluate the impacts of different authoritarian legacies on electoral volatility across Asia. Their study also analyzes the effect time has on the electoral stability of democracies across varying authoritarian legacies. Finally, they explain how through deliberate routinization of political behavior, political leaders can protect democracy and stabilize party politics, regardless of their country’s authoritarian history.
Topic:: Politics, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Asia

100. The 2022 Philippine Elections Primer: A Democratic Citizenship Perspective

Author:: Anthony Lawrence Borja and Ian Jayson Hecita
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: In regards to the 2022 presidential and vice-presidential elections in Philippines, Anthony Lawrence Borja and Ian Jayson Hecita, Assistant Professorial Lecturers at the Department of Political Science and Development Studies of De La Salle University, analyze the issue of democratic citizenship. The authors state that the prospects of democratization in the Philippines are weak due to resurgent illiberalism among citizens and chronic weaknesses among key liberal democratic institutions. Therefore the importance of promoting strong democratic citizenship is highlighted by the authors as they argue that the absence of an active citizenry, ability to effectively participate in the policy process, leads to the doom of democratization.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, and Citizenship
Political Geography:: Philippines and Asia-Pacific

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS