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21. Europeans still want climate action, but don't trust governments to deliver

Author:
Jan Eichhorn and Heather Grabbe
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The vast majority of Europeans continues to support action to combat climate change, but many are losing faith in governments to deliver a transition that is effective and fair. Based on a large-scale questionnaire answered by nearly 8000 people in five EU countries in 2024, with a comparison to responses from 2020, we find that Europeans continue to worry about climate change and want effective action to combat it, even though the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly increased their concerns about economic and physical insecurity. Scepticism about the causes of climate change has risen a bit, and concern about adapting to its impact has grown. People across all income groups, particularly in France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, feel negative about the outlook for their economic future and their governments’ ability to improve it. People who feel politically disaffected think that decisionmakers are not taking their views and interests into account when making economic and climate policies. Some people are now shifting their attention away from action against the climate crisis towards adaptation, but this does not mean they are less concerned about climate change. Instead, for some people, it is an expression of their disillusionment with state institutions – and this feeling is present among supporters of parties across the political spectrum. Worry about climate change is equally spread across all socio-economic groups. Closer examination of attitudes in Germany, using evidence from focus groups, which we also discuss in this Policy Brief, reinforces the finding of increasing scepticism about the German government’s ability to manage the climate crisis. If political leaders want the public to continue to support climate policies, they must engage proactively now to avoid even greater loss of confidence in government. If governments go soft on efforts to combat the climate crisis now or delay action, they will not meet voters’ demand for an effective and just transition. Moreover, hesitation and delay would boost populist and far-right actors’ efforts to sow doubt about the causes of climate change and whether policies will be effective.
Topic:
Climate Change, Elections, Populism, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

22. Women Political Leaders as Agents of Environmental Change

Author:
Inés Berniell, Mariana Marchionni, Julian Pedrazzi, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper explores how female political leaders impact environmental outcomes and climate change policy actions using data from mixed-gender mayoral races in Brazil. Using a Regression Discontinuity design we find that, compared to male mayors, female mayors significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This effect is driven by a reduction in emissions intensity (CO2e/GDP) in the Land Use sector, without changes in municipal economic activity. Part of the reduction in emissions in the Land Use sector is attributable to a decline in deforestation. We examine potential mechanisms that could explain the positive environmental impact of narrowly electing a female mayor over a male counterpart and find that in Amazon municipalities, female elected mayors allocate more space to the environment in their government proposals and are more likely to invest in environmental initiatives. Differences in the enforcement of environmental regulations do not explain the results.
Topic:
Climate Change, Politics, Elections, Women, Leadership, and Gender
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and Amazon Basin

23. The Brexit Files: from referendum to reset

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
For the past decade, UK in a Changing Europe has provided impartial, research-based analysis on a number of issues, but most particularly on UK-EU relations. Since before the 2015 General Election, we have evaluated those relations, traced and explained the tortuous Brexit process, and attempted to assess the impact that Brexit has had on the country. This report brings together some of the best scholars working on these issues to consider a number of these questions on the 5th anniversary of the UK ceasing to be a member of the European Union.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

24. How to Replace 'First Past the Post'

Author:
Jess Garland, Rainbow Murray, Stephen Gethins, and Stijn van Kessel
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In 1918, Parliament came within hours of abolishing First Past the Post. The system only survived because the two Houses disagreed on the system that should replace it. With the Bill on the brink of collapse, the question was postponed – a reprieve that has lasted for 107 years. In a recent YouGov poll, only 23% of respondents backed First Past the Post. But what might replace it? Different countries use a dizzying array of different systems, which are designed to do different things. Some are ‘proportional’, others ‘preferential’. Some would expand the range of parties, while others might shrink them. Do we want our electoral system to give us strong governments or strong parliaments? Do we want more or fewer regional parties, independent candidates, extremist parties or coalitions? In this event, co-hosted with Unlock Democracy, the Electoral Reform Society and Make Votes Matter, the Mile End Institute presented different electoral systems as used in France, New Zealand, Scotland, Ireland and the Netherlands. Dr Jess Garland (ERS), Professor Rainbow Murray (QMUL), Stephen Gethins MP and Professor Stijn van Kessel (QMUL) debated their strengths and weaknesses; what they can and can’t achieve; and how they work in practice.
Topic:
Government, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

25. The Conservative Party in Opposition

Author:
Tim Bale, Nigel Fletcher, Lee David Evans, and Mercy Muroki
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
As Kemi Badenoch began her tenure as Leader of the Conservative Party and the Leader of His Majesty's Official Opposition, Prof Tim Bale was joined by Dr Nigel Fletcher, Lee David Evans and Mercy Muroki to explore her approach to leadership and what her Shadow Cabinet appointments tell us about the future of Conservative policy. After the most successful electoral force in British history suffered the worst defeat in its 200-year existence, our expert panel of academics, historians and political commentators considered how the new Conservative leader might approach the challenges and dilemmas of Opposition.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Conservative Party
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

26. Australians Vote for the Steady Center

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
On May 3, the Australian Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, returned to power. It was a remarkable result. First-term governments in Australia usually get a second term, but typically with a reduced majority. Not only did Labor increase its majority, but the size of its victory has probably consigned their main political rivals — a Coalition of the Liberal Party and the rural-based National Party — to Opposition for at least the next two terms of government. The result has been so politically traumatic that the two Opposition parties have torn up their Coalition agreement for the first time since 1987. Foreign and defense policy did not really feature in the election campaign. The result suggests there will not be too much change in Australia’s approach to the world. But the election also hints at the challenge the government will face balancing domestic and international priorities. By highlighting U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Australia, it also points to how managing the alliance may become a little trickier in Albanese’s new term.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

27. Bro-Politics in Action: Trump and the “Personalization” of Foreign Policy

Author:
Ádám Csobánci
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Congratulations poured in from European heads of state and government as soon as it became clear that Donald Trump was turning U.S. battleground states red and winning the presidential election last November. Many presidents and prime ministers posted selfies and pictures with Trump, emphasizing their strong personal relationship and shared history. While congratulations to the new President might seem like standard diplomatic courtesy, the enthusiasm for the upcoming Trump 2.0 administration from Paris, Berlin, and Brussels appears less than sincere, given their rather complicated relationships with the first Trump administration. In contrast, leaders like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who described Trump’s victory as "the biggest comeback in Western political history" and forecasted a golden era in US-Hungarian relations, expressed a strong eagerness to collaborate on shared goals. Similarly, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni praised the "unshakable alliance" between Italy and the U.S., demonstrating clear support for Trump’s win. Recognizing the heightened importance of personal relationships in dealing with Trump and his administration, European leaders are hoping to establish strong personal ties with the President. This trend report predicts how in 2025 further “personalization” of foreign policy is to be expected from the next U.S. administration. I present, through the examples of Orbán and Meloni, that European leaders already possessing close ties with the next U.S. president or his inner circle might have a significant head start to influence Trump’s Europe policy, with far-reaching consequences. Europeans who were not in power during Trump’s first term are pressed for time because the start of his new presidency is expected to bring rapid and aggressive policy changes. With the Republican Party controlling all branches of government, Trump’s administration will likely prioritize advancing its agenda swiftly, particularly before the midterm elections in 2026, when Congressional support could wane. For European leaders who are new to office or lacked strong ties with Trump previously, this creates urgency. They have strong incentives to build closer relations with his administration, whether due to shared ideologies or fears of trade tariffs; however, they face a glaring challenge. They will have to compete for Trump’s very limited time, attention and interest, as European affairs are unlikely to be a top priority for the new administration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Personalization
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

28. Hybrid Threats and the Role of the Far Right

Author:
Daniela Pisoiu
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
On 16 December 2024, the Council of the European Union decided for the first time to sanction a number of individuals and entities as a response to Russian “hybrid activities of various kinds, including the use of coordinated information manipulation and interference.” (Council of the EU 2024) The malicious activities invoked in the decision mainly relate to disinformation and misinformation campaigns in relation to the war in Ukraine but also include espionage and hate crimes such as the deliberate painting of Stars of David on the streets of Paris in October 2023. Russia’s hybrid war against the EU is not limited to misinformation, disinformation and low-level violence, but has also included sabotage and cyberattacks, as documented in detail in the press. The recent incident whereby power and internet cables were cut in the Baltic Sea by an anchor of a Russia-linked tanker (Bockmann 2024; Rasmussen and Kauranen 2025) is only one example. NATO officials estimate that such attacks have reached levels never seen before, along with numerous foiled plots (Clark 2024). In July 2024, two parcel bombs were detonated—one in a DHL plane in Leipzig and another in a warehouse near Birmingham—while several arson attacks were registered in the UK, Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania and Latvia (Kayali et al. 2024). Some officials would go as far as to call these attacks acts of terrorism (ibid.), in what appears to be an all-out war on several fronts. In the background of this strategic situation in Europe, the recent advances of far-right parties in several key EU members become particularly relevant, especially considering their neutral or even positive attitudes towards Russia. While Hungary repeatedly opposed EU sanctions against Russia in the context of its aggression war in Ukraine, far-right parties in Austria and Germany consistently argue for a ‘neutral’ approach towards the war or even against their countries’ support for Ukraine (Hasselbach C. 2024; Lindorfer and Gebhart 2024). Russian overt and covert funding of far-right parties and actors in Europe has been clearly evidenced and analyzed as a tool to undermine liberal democracy in Europe and as “a reward for ideological alignment with Moscow and an incentive to advance Russian interests in the West.” (Datta 2022) Interference in national elections is a particularly effective and worrisome form of Russian hybrid warfare that has already occurred in Europe at least twice last year. According to a press release of the European Parliament in October 2024, Russia conducted a number of destabilizing actions in Moldova in order to influence the national vote through voter fraud schemes, cyberattacks and information warfare. For example, authorities foiled a voter fraud scheme involving “$15 million being transferred to 130,000 Moldovans as part of a voter bribery operation”. (European Parliament, 2024) Interestingly, and in spite of the overwhelming evidence presented, a resolution issuing a warning against Russian interference was met with 53 votes against and 104 abstentions (ibid.). The Romanian presidential election at the end of 2024 was also marked by strong Russian interference, again in support of an anti-EU and pro-Russian actor, this time also with clear far-right tendencies. Presidential candidate Calin Georgescu, having risen from 1% support to first ranked after the first round of presidential elections, publicly praised the Romanian fascist organization Iron Guard—as well as others responsible for assassinations and the systematic killing of Jews during World War II—and openly collaborates with alleged current Iron Guard members (Pro TV 2024). Sociolinguistic analysis furthermore concluded that his discourses heavily rely on the Iron Guard, but also communist rhetoric (Benea 2024). Public statements in relation to the war in Ukraine resemble the tenor of far-right parties in Germany and Austria in terms of advancing a neutral stance towards the war and promoting ‘peace’ (Ardelean 2024). On the background of previous activities in the esoteric scene, other statements advanced various conspiracy, New Age–colored theories, including those concerning a faked moon-landing, the energetic power of the pyramids, and an alternative chemical composition of water (Barbuta 2024). The Romanian presidential elections were canceled by the Constitutional Court after a number of declassified documents showed massive foreign interference through several hybrid tactics, namely cyber-attacks, sabotage, and disinformation, as well as various breaches of electoral legislation (Costita et al. 2024). The tactics used closely resembled the ones employed prior to the elections in Moldova and to the war in Ukraine. For example, according to documents released by the Romanian Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia considers Romania as an enemy state that poses a threat through its NATO membership, and which constitutes ‘competition’ for Russia in Moldova. The scope of Russian hostile actions included propaganda and disinformation to affect political and economic preferences, support for anti-EU candidates and anti-establishment movements, affecting trust in national and European institutions, and creating discontent among the population to pressure the government towards changing its stance on the war in Ukraine (ibid.). Romanian presidential elections are scheduled to take place again in May 2025. The parliamentary elections in December 2024 failed to produce a rise of far-right/nationalist parties, which overall scored a little over 20% altogether (Digi24 2024), which seems to indicate the powerful effect of hybrid warfare when carefully orchestrated and funded. In the meantime, the public has been made somewhat aware of the online manipulations on social media, but further hostile actions can be expected in Romania and other EU countries. While initial measures have already been taken to address the Russian hybrid threat, further initiatives are needed to strengthen cooperation with social media platforms and to better adapt political communication strategies of mainstream parties to the particularities of social media platforms in order to limit the reach and effect of extremist messaging.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Far Right, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Europe and Romania

29. Uncertainty in Caracas: What Awaits Venezuela's Maduro in his Third Term?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On January 10, 2025, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term. The opposition condemned this event as a "coup," accusing Maduro of election fraud in connection with the presidential elections held on July 28, 2024. In response, the government organized a rally in support of Maduro in the capital. Meanwhile, the opposition staged a protest led by Maria Corina Machado, who made her first public appearance since August 2024.
Topic:
Economics, Elections, Protests, Organized Crime, Social Unrest, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

30. Representación política e identidad local en Ceuta (1975-2023)

Author:
Fernández. Alicia
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
This article proposes a comparative analysis of the Ceuta political arena, as well as a study of the existing political cleavages, the referents involved in the construction of Ceuta's identity, and their current political practices and preferences.
Topic:
Identity, Representation, Elections, Politics, and Community Cleavages
Political Geography:
Ceuta, Spain, North Africa, and Morocco

31. Electoral Management Body Leadership Transitions

Author:
Staffan Darnolf and Rushdi Nackerdien
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
Executive leadership transitions within Election Management Bodies (EMBs) can profoundly impact the credibility and effectiveness of electoral processes. Whether planned or unexpected, leadership changes at the highest level can disrupt institutional continuity, unsettle operational readiness, and undermine public trust. In 2024, India offered a striking example of this dual challenge: just weeks before its general elections,1 the resignation of Election Commissioner occurred just after the planned retirement of another commissioner, leaving only the Chief Electoral Commissioner in place to oversee a complex national vote. 2 This combination of both a foreseeable and a sudden departure placed the EMB in a precarious position at a critical moment.3 Similar risks have emerged in other contexts. In 2018, Lesotho's Independent Electoral Commission saw the dismissal of all three commissioners amid allegations of misconduct, requiring swift intervention to restore institutional legitimacy. That same year in Kenya, three commissioners from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) resigned abruptly due to internal disputes, leaving the body weakened ahead of key electoral processes. In contrast, Australia’s 2024 transition was marked by the orderly retirement of long-serving Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers, whose departure was announced months in advance, allowing for a planned succession. These varied cases illustrate that without dedicated and well-prepared executive transition strategies, EMBs risk not only internal instability but also the broader integrity of the democratic processes they are mandated to protect. This White Paper is a first effort to outline how EMBs can learn from the experiences of their peers when it comes to improving their executive leadership transition process. To date, much of the EMB leadershiprelated research has focused on the appointment process for commissioners and how the process can impact the EMB’s independence, while very limited attention has been paid to executive leadership transitions. Effective transitions contribute significantly to the success of new executives and the overall integrity of the electoral process. This White Paper makes the case that by ensuring that transitions are well-planned, commissioners are better positioned to swiftly and competently take the reins of the EMB and thereby maintain high levels of trust and confidence among stakeholders. This, in turn, reinforces the credibility of elections and the democratic process. Whether the transition is foreseen well in advance or sudden and unexpected, a structured and proactive approach can help EMBs navigate these changes smoothly, ensuring that they continue to uphold their mandate effectively and without jeopardizing public trust.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Global Focus

32. Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections

Author:
Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
A new survey for ECFR reveals people in many countries around the world are upbeat about the second Trump presidency. Many think Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace or reduce tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and US-China relations. In contrast, US allies in Europe and South Korea are notably pessimistic about the incoming president—suggesting a further weakening of the geopolitical “West”. Ukrainians are slightly more positive than not about the impact Trump might have on ending the conflict with Russia. But they are deeply conflicted about what could be an acceptable compromise settlement with Moscow. Europeans will struggle to find internal unity or global power in leading an outright resistance to the new administration. But the survey reveals that many in the world regard the EU as a player equal to the US and China—a strength European leaders should draw on as they enter the turbulent new presidential term. Rather than harking back to a post-cold war liberal order, Europeans should focus on understanding and seeing opportunities in the new world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Elections, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

33. Final Report: 2023 National Elections in Liberia

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
General elections were held in 2023 in Liberia to elect the president, the House of Representatives, and half the Senate. President George Weah was running for a second term. No candidate won a majority in the first round of voting on Oct. 10, which led to a Nov. 14 runoff between Weah and his closest challenger, Joseph Boakai. Boakai defeated Weah by just over one percentage point, and Weah conceded peacefully. In May of 2023, Liberia’s National Elections Commission (NEC) issued an invitation to The Carter Center to observe the election. Funding constraints prevented the Center from deploying a full observation mission. However, to demonstrate international support for democracy in Liberia and to share recommendations for strengthening the electoral process, The Carter Center deployed an international election expert mission led by Ray Kennedy, who also served as electoral analyst. Nicholas Jahr served as deputy team leader and political analyst, and Mariam Tabatadze was the legal analyst. The team was in Liberia from Sept. 25, two weeks prior to the first round of voting, to the end of November, two weeks after the runoff. Given the mission’s size and limited scope, it did not conduct a full observation of voting or make a comprehensive assessment of the election. Rather, the trio of experts focused on the counting and tabulation process and NEC preparations for both rounds of voting. They observed polling stations in Montserrado County—Monrovia, as well as Upper and Lower Montserrado magisterial areas—during both rounds. Liberia’s NEC successfully administered the 2023 elections, including a presidential runoff, despite a tense political climate and severe resource constraints. The 2023 Revised Farmington River Declaration in which 27 of 31 political parties pledged their commitments to peaceful elections served as a useful tool in maintaining a relatively calm atmosphere during the campaign period.2 The NEC maintained its credibility through a closely contested first round that saw the difference in votes between the first-place and second-place candidates come down to less than half a percentage point, with nearly 80% of the registered electorate going to the polls, followed by a second round in which the difference was less than 2%, with 66% of the electorate casting ballots. The NEC’s strong performance is notable in the current regional and subregional context and positions Liberia to serve as a model for promoting political stability through professionally administered elections if there is the political will to continue to do so. Nonetheless, political will has been a recurring problem in Liberia in relation to elections: For example, despite repeated calls for action, elected leaders over the past 20 years have failed to effectively address the issue of including female candidates on party lists. Likewise, leaders have failed to ensure that electoral districts comply with constitutional requirements to provide equal representation, with many electoral districts dating from 2005 and reflecting enormous disproportionality. Given its record of successfully administering elections in 2005, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2020, as well as various by-elections, despite declining levels of international support, expectations for the NEC have risen. Still, financial constraints and other limits on its independence have hindered the NEC’s ability to make further progress in professionalizing the institution and consolidating its reputation.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

34. Guyana General Election Preliminary Statement

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Carter Center election observation mission has been in Guyana since late June following an invitation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. The mission is led by Jason Carter, chairperson of The Carter Center Board of Trustees and grandson of the late U.S. President Jimmy Carter. On election day, 47 observers from 21 countries visited 234 polling stations across Guyana’s 10 regions to observe voting and counting. Carter Center observers continue to assess the conclusion of counting and vote tabulation and will remain in Guyana to observe the postelection environment. All assessments are made in accordance with international standards for elections, and the observation mission was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Guyana

35. The Spitzenkandidat: Time to rethink a failing democratic experiment

Author:
Eric Maurice
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Hailed as a breakthrough for EU democracy when it was first introduced in 2014, the Spitzenkandidat system has since failed to fulfil the promises made to European citizens. The system, based on an interpretation of Article 17.7 of the treaty on the European Union that stipulates how the Commission president is (s)elected, dictates that the lead candidate of the European party which obtains the most votes in the European elections should become European Commission president and was used in the election of Commission presidents Jean-Claude Junker and Ursula von der Leyen. This paper argues that the Spitzenkandidat system has not contributed to deepening the pan-European political debate, reinforcing the political legitimacy of EU institutions, or increasing the accountability of the European Commission to the European Parliament. On the contrary, the way that European political parties and members of the European Parliament have implemented the system has led to a more powerful and partisan Commission, as well as a weaker Parliament with less oversight powers. And while the European Parliament—engaged in an institutional competition with the European Council—has used the lead candidate experiment to establish a parliamentary government at EU level, this has created ambiguities over the form of government the EU should have and where legitimacy should derive from. On 18 July 2024, a majority in the European Parliament re-elected Ursula von der Leyen, the lead candidate of the European People’s Party, as Commission president. A year later, the Commission’s agenda does not reflect the political balance of the so-called ‘Von der Leyen coalition’ that backed her election, which proves that the Commission is not politically accountable to the Parliament. The first anniversary of her re-election is an opportunity to draw lessons from the Spitzenkandidat experiment and start rethinking how it can deliver on its democratic promises.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Citizenship, Participation, European Parliament, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

36. Rethinking Ethiopia's National Dialogue

Author:
Amanuel Dessalegn Gedebo
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Ethiopia is entering a critical period ahead of its 2026 general elections, marked by intensifying armed conflicts, shrinking political space, and a faltering economy. In this context, the government’s flagship National Dialogue process, intended to foster consensus on divisive national issues, risks becoming mere window dressing. While the Dialogue Commission has made progress in convening political actors, its credibility is undermined by the exclusion of key opposition and armed groups, as well as concerns over its independence. This policy brief examines whether the National Dialogue, in its current form, can meaningfully address Ethiopia’s deepening political crisis. It explores the interplay between ongoing civil wars in Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray, the government’s increasingly repressive tactics, and the limitations of the dialogue process. The brief argues that without urgent reforms to ensure inclusiveness and political openness, the National Dialogue may further entrench instability rather than resolve it. It concludes with recommendations for the Ethiopian government and its international partners, including the EU and the Netherlands, on how to recalibrate their approach to support a more credible and constructive path forward.
Topic:
Civil War, Elections, Domestic Politics, Instability, Fragmentation, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

37. Digital Technologies in the Election Cycle – The Case of Albanian Parliamentary Elections 2025

Author:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
As digital platforms and AI reshape societies worldwide, their impact on elections is increasingly profound. This brief explores how digital tools were used in Albania’s 2025 Parliamentary Elections, examining the roles of the Central Election Committee, political parties, candidates, and civil society. While technology offers opportunities for voter education, transparency, and participation, it also brings risks such as misinformation, unethical campaigning, and gaps in legal oversight. Drawing on international examples and Albania’s own experience, the brief highlights the need for robust safeguards, legislative alignment with EU standards, and strengthened public awareness to ensure digital means strengthen rather than undermines democratic processes.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, Parliament, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Albania

38. Lessons in Resilience: Moldova’s Response to Russia’s Hybrid Interference

Author:
Alina Doroftei
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Following the pro-EU outcome of the 2024 presidential election and constitutional referendum, Russia intensified its hybrid campaign against Moldova for the 2025 parliamentary elections. The aim was clear: destabilize the government, weaken public trust in democratic processes, derail Moldova’s EU accession path, and bring to power pro-Moscow actors. Russia deployed a broad set of tactics, including political proxies, oligarchic networks, disinformation, illicit financing, cyberattacks, and attempts at street-level disruption. Despite the sophistication of these measures and the outsourcing to third-country actors, Moldova’s institutions, civil society, and media responded decisively through rapid exposure, dismantling of interference networks, and transparent public communication. The country’s international partners played an important role in bolstering its resilience. The success of the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity, which won another parliamentary majority, if reduced, dealt a heavy blow to Moscow and its allied oligarchs. Russia’s interference was part of a long-term multi-layered destabilization campaign abusing democratic freedoms. At its core, it sought to normalize the perception that Moldova could not conduct a fair, sovereign vote while empowering pro-Russia or anti-establishment forces. Ultimately, the strategy relied on mercenaries, corrupt networks, and short-term political technologies that lacked broad appeal. Moldova’s legislative and institutional reforms curbing illicit financing and safeguarding electoral integrity blunted these tactics, although uneven judicial interventions related to the exclusion of certain parties also risked casting a shadow over the process. There are now three main priorities for Moldova’s democracy. First, Moldova must consolidate institutional readiness against hybrid threats and restore public trust, especially in the judiciary. The swift interagency response around the elections should be developed into a permanent, institutionalized framework. Clearly defined roles for the Supreme Security Council, the Strategic Communication Centre, and the Crisis Management Centre are essential. Second, the fight against polarization and erosion of public trust must be intensified. Strengthening communication capacities, working with civil society experts, promoting digital literacy, and cooperating with independent watchdogs and platforms are all needed to counter disinformation and coordinated inauthentic behavior. There is a risk of civic pluralism shrinking under the pressure of malicious lawsuits, polarization, and economic constraints. Platforms could be established that provide civic actors with timely access to legal aid, cyber defense, and more sustainable funding. Third, international engagement with Moldova must be sustained and predictable. Following the successful completion of its EU accession screening in September, negotiations need to be fasttracked. With US assistance cut, the EU and other donors need to step in more consistently, focusing on long-term core funding for civil society organizations and media. Moldova’s experience should also inform EU-wide resilience mechanisms, including developing new bilateral and cross-border cooperation targeting mainly inauthentic online behavior and illegal political financing. Moldova’s elections have showed that determined institutions, an active civil society, and international solidarity can resist Russia’s hybrid campaigns. Yet resilience remains fragile. Sustained reforms, economic development, societal cohesion, and long-term donor commitment are indispensable for consolidating Moldova’s democratic path and for ensuring stability in a region that remains a target of Moscow’s disruptive strategies.
Topic:
Security, Elections, European Union, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Moldova

39. Don’t Be Deceived by Reported Electoral Turnout: Analyzing Iraq’s Elections by the Numbers

Author:
Munqith Dagher
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
By comparing the outcome of Iraq's recent elections with the country's demographic trends, a clear difference emerges between the proportion of Iraqis whose votes are represented in the new parliament and the Iraqi population writ large. The Iraqi parliamentary elections held on November 11, 2025 marked a pivotal turning point in the history of the post-2003 Iraqi state. At first glance, these elections reversed a trend of political disengagement; the number of parliamentary candidates increased significantly from previous elections (7,926 candidates competed for 329 parliamentary seats), alongside a massive increase in electoral spending estimated at billions of dollars and an increase in the voter participation rate that defied expectations. However, simply reading the total figures published by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) without delving into the underlying details can give false impressions and inaccurate conclusions about what Iraq’s latest elections mean for the political preferences of Iraqis.
Topic:
Demographics, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

40. Iraq's Pivotal Parliamentary Election

Author:
Mina Al-Oraibi, Munqith Dagher, and James Jeffrey
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Two regional political experts join a former U.S. ambassador to discuss how the final campaign push is shaping up and what the outcome could hold for U.S. interests.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East