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6831. Wings of Change: The Coming Drone Proliferation in the Western Balkans

Author:
Filip Ejdus and Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
What are contributing factors to the rise of drones in the Balkans and how might they change the military balance of power in the region? Find out in the BCSP analysis written by the BCSP Senior Researcher Vuk Vuksanović, and Filip Ejdus, a professor in security studies at the Faculty of Political Science, University of Belgrade and the Member of the Executive Board at the BCSP. In May 2023, Turkey delivered to Kosovo five Bayraktar TB2 attack drones to be used by its Kosovo Security Forces (KSF). The transaction was done seven months after the signing of the contract, and as Kosovo was close to hosting a large US-led military exercise, Defender Europe 23. This transaction might signify things to come, that is, the proliferation of armed drones in the Western Balkans. The reasons for this potential proliferation of armed drones are multiple. First, they include that drones are becoming an unavoidable hallmark of the global security landscape, used by superpowers like the US and in various regional conflicts worldwide. Second, the fact that Serbia is ahead of its neighbours in the number of drones it operates creates an impulse with its neighbours to match that capability. Third, the extant regional arms control regime in the Western Balkans has loopholes related to the more modern weapons systems like drones. Fourth, the acquisition of weapon systems like drones is a powerful political instrument for local nations to increase their regional and international bargaining power, as well as for the powers supplying them to boost their influence in the Balkans. Finally, investing in armed forces, including acquiring modern systems like drones, is a powerful method of domestic political promotion for the local elites. This combination of factors makes regional drone proliferation in the Western Balkans highly probable.
Topic:
Weapons, Drones, Military, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Serbia and Western Balkans

6832. Enabling Just Change in the International Health Care Governance

Author:
Srdan Hercigonja
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This publication comes after months of research conducted by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, in collaboration with its partners in the Western Balkans region - Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (Prishtina), Centre for Security Studies (Sarajevo), Institute Alternative (Podgorica), Institute for Democracy and Mediation (Tirana) and Institute for Democracy “Societas Civilis” (Skopje). The first stage focused on desk research over the course of nine months. Extensive desk research followed, with semi-structured interviews with public health experts conducted in order to assess the pandemic management in each of the Western Balkan countries – North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The second stage of the research was focused on the reform of the global health governance system and structures. This part of the research implied semi-structured interviews and discussions with global health experts, as well as with experts in global governance. The baseline for the set of recommendations presented in this paper is that pandemics remain one of the most serious threats to human, national, and global security. Therefore, fundamental reforms of global health governance must be implemented in order for the global society to be better prepared for the next pandemic. Two external experts also contributed to this paper.
Topic:
Security, Health, Governance, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Western Balkans

6833. Resolve to Protect: The War in Ukraine and Challenges to Protecting Civilians in Evolving Warfare Dynamics

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
What can the states and governments do to protect civilians in conflict and prevent further civilian losses in war in Ukraine? Read about it in the new analysis written by a member of the BCSP International Advisory Committee, Marta Martinelli. The war in Ukraine marks a turning point in the history of Europe and of the relations between the West and Russia, as well as more broadly, the configuration of alliances that the conflict contributes to shaping as it protracts and evolves. The situation in Ukraine is a powerful indication of a world we used to take for granted. The old framework provided a more or less reliable ecosystem designed to provide predictability and a level of stability acceptable to the world’s large powers. It included the use of diplomacy to address international confrontations, reliance on international law to regulate relations amongst states including in the conduct of hostilities, and a general ‘agreement’ that provoking a direct confrontation between Russia and the West belonged to the realm of the irrational and unacceptable. That predictability was shattered in February 2022. If there is one element that emerges starkly from the conduct of the war in Ukraine, it is the insignificance of diplomacy to restore peace and the total disregard for International Humanitarian Law and civilians caught in the war. Whilst not new to contemporary conflicts (as seen in Darfur, the Central African Republic, Yemen, and Syria, amongst others) the scale and speed of the harm inflicted to civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is unprecedented, facilitated also by the use of new technologies.
Topic:
Civilians, Armed Conflict, Protection, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

6834. Digital Surveillance in Serbia

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
People’s ever-stronger reliance on digital technologies and devices has caused states and private actors to increasingly reach for various systems and tools for the digital surveillance of citizens. Consequently, high-resolution cameras, artificial intelligence, programmes for biometric recognition, tools for automatic data collection from the Internet, and intrusive software for monitoring mobile phones have become the everyday reality of people worldwide. The spread of digital surveillance in Serbia is highly non-transparent, and especially dangerous since Serbia has been assessed as a captured state characterised by the abuse of state resources for the sake of personal and party interests. Although the reports by the media and investigative journalists are important, they are focused on individual cases, which makes it difficult to get a broader picture of the scale of the digital surveillance problem in Serbia based on them. That is why it is important, starting from the existing reports, to map the digital surveillance infrastructure in Serbia, i.e. to make a list of digital surveillance equipment and programmes the state institutions have acquired, determine whether they are competent and authorised to use them, and how these technologies are misused. Since Serbia is striving to become a member of the European Union (EU), it is also important to show how the EU is attempting to regulate this area.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Surveillance, Institutions, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

6835. Perceptions of Public Safety and Trust in Security and Justice Institutions: Socio-Economic Influences in Serbia

Author:
Dušan Stanković
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This analysis is based on the public opinion survey conducted in Serbia in 2022. The research objectives were to investigate citizens’ perceptions of public safety and trust in security and justice institutions in Serbia. Public safety perceptions were divided into questions on national safety and personal safety. The report is structured to present methodology and findings on the trust in security and justice institutions, and then perceptions of national and personal safety risks. The results are presented using graphic figures and text. The perceptions and demographical (socio-economic characteristics) differences are analyzed using a statistical test. Since the data of this study includes responses to the public opinion survey from October 2022, readers must consider the time gap between the public poll results and current public safety in Serbia.
Topic:
Security, Public Opinion, Institutions, Trust, and Public Safety
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

6836. Between Emotions and Realism: Two Faces of Turkish Foreign Policy in the Balkans

Author:
Srdan Hercigonja and Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
Turkey’s more assertive posture towards the Balkans is neglected compared to the commentariat that deals with Russia and China. To fill this policy gap, the research team of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) has conducted research based on the analysis of secondary source material and, even more importantly, on fieldwork interviews that involved 16 sources, academics and think tank researchers based in Istanbul and Ankara. Although the consulted sources have different backgrounds and political sympathies, the research established a presence of common themes. Namely, Turkish foreign policy in the Balkans has two aspects. The first is based on emotions. Turkish foreign policy towards the region is framed by Turkey’s special ties with the region based on shared history, social connections, identity factors and the legacy of the Ottoman Empire. The Balkan country most frequently mentioned in the context of special ties with Turkey is Bosnia and Herzegovina, in light of socio-cultural ties and the fact that it is a country in which the Ottoman legacy is felt most strongly. The second approach is rooted in traditional foreign policy realism derived from an objective and calculated assessment of the regional balance of power and one’s own interests. Within this approach, Turkey is trying, for security and strategic reasons, to act pragmatically and be effective in the Balkans without entangling itself in crises that could impede its regional influence. This approach leads Turkey towards engaging Serbia, the region’s strategically consequential country because Ankara is deeply convinced that if it wishes to be effective in the Balkans, it needs to have a partnership with Belgrade. In doing so, it must strike a balance between emotions and realism. It needs to walk the fine line between nurturing ties with communities with cultural and religious ties, like Bosniaks and Albanians, while avoiding alienating countries whose partnership Ankara needs to succeed in the Balkans, such as Serbia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Emotions, Realism, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, Asia, and Balkans

6837. A Driver of Green Transition or a Colonial Tailing Dump: Political Discourse on the Jadar Project

Author:
Luka Šterić
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to analyse the political debate surrounding the Jadar Project. It will present the development of the debate, the key actors, and the dominant discourses that formulated it. The first section of the study is dedicated to understanding the wider context and importance of the project, both in Serbia and globally. In the second, we will present the three stages of the development of the discourse on the Jadar Project so far. We will then go into a detailed analysis of the actors and narratives that have guided the political debate. Finally, in the last section, we will look at the consequences of the debate on the political arena in Serbia, as well as the possible future of the discourse on this project and environmental topics in general.
Topic:
Development, Environment, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

6838. Messy Diplomacy: Western Balkan Countries Facing the Gaza Conflict

Author:
Srđan Cvijić and Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The ongoing war that Israel is waging in Gaza against Hamas is one of the most consequential conflicts with serious political implications worldwide. The Gaza conflict has already diverted the world’s attention from what has been the most dominant international conflict in the past year and a half: the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many countries in the Western Balkans are conflicted about what diplomatic stance to take on the Gaza war, primarily whether they should support Israel or Palestine or remain neutral since their decision-making will have to balance their domestic public, as well as their ties with Israel, Muslim countries and, most importantly, the US and the EU. The vote taken on October 26 in the UN General Assembly (hereinafter: UNGA) on the resolution that called for a truce between Israel and Hamas with a strong emphasis on humanitarian factors demonstrated how conflicted the Western Balkan countries were on the current conflict in Gaza. The pattern of division among the Western Balkan countries on this occasion somewhat diverges from the votes cast in different UN fora in the past decade. Whereas Albania and North Macedonia have continued with their previous positions when it comes to their foreign policy toward the conflict in the Middle East, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia have displayed an interesting change.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hamas, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Western Balkans

6839. BSC Trends: Reconstructing the Global (Dis)Order

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
We proudly present you the ‘BSC Trends: Reconstructing the Global (Dis)Order,’ the companion publication to the Belgrade Security Conference 2023, held in Belgrade from October 11th to 13th, 2023. This publication aims to shed light on and discuss, following the style of BSC discussions, the most significant global, regional, and local events, phenomena, and developments that have marked this year. These topics were part of the panel discussions in this year’s BSC conference program. The authors of the texts in this publication have taken an additional step by attempting, thoroughly and analytically, to foresee events in the near future within each of the covered subjects. The significance of this publication lies in its capacity to indicate, over an extended period, the primary directions in the development of foreign and security policies, international relations, the European Union, the third power influence, the existence of the global order, and the phenomenon of globalization. It explores how these aspects impact geopolitics, the Balkans, international relations, EU enlargement, the rise of right-wing politics in Europe, the Ukraine conflict, and the Middle East. Starting this year, after each edition of the Belgrade Security Conference, this publication will be released to capture the essence of the discussed themes that defined the conference. Furthermore, it will expand these themes through analyses by the finest researchers of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, along with our external partners, friends of the institution, and other invited authors.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Globalization, European Union, and International Order
Political Geography:
Europe

6840. Youth, Guns and Safety: Analysis of the Response to the Multiple Murders of 3 and 4 May

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
After the multiple murders that took place on 3 and 4 May 2023, the Government of Serbia adopted a series of measures to improve gun control and increase safety in schools and among youth. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implementation and effectiveness of these measures. The ... After the multiple murders that took place on 3 and 4 May 2023, the Government of Serbia adopted a series of measures to improve gun control and increase safety in schools and among youth. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implementation and effectiveness of these measures. The research was based on different sources of data: the state authorities’ official reports, expert literature, media reports, interviews conducted with police officers, the Armed Violence Monitoring Platform (AVMP) database, and a survey of the citizens’ satisfaction with measures, their perception of security and trust in institutions. Most of the measures that have been adopted are related to firearms, while a smaller part refers to the safety of young people and education. Also, measures related to firearms have been implemented more than others, and some are still in effect (gun control, moratorium on the issuance of gun permits). Most of the measures were not implemented even though more than six months have passed since their adoption. Some of them, like tougher penalties for firearms-related offences or lowering the threshold for criminal liability, require legislative changes. In addition, the research and experience of other countries do not support the idea that tougher penal policies would decrease criminality. The conclusions show that the measures were motivated by political interests to satisfy the public and that they were not adopted by professionals from the fields of public security, justice or education, which is why some have turned out to be impossible to implement (restricting access to the Dark Net, reducing the threshold for criminal responsibility, gun control in the short term) or are unsustainable for the system (police presence in schools, testing students for the presence of psychoactive substances). Analysis of data from the regional Armed Violence Monitoring Platform, which records media-covered incidents involving firearms, indicates that the number of such incidents did not change much after 3 and 4 May. Also, other data sources show that levels of violence and incidents involving firearms are not decreasing and that implemented measures have not changed anything in this sense. The results of the public opinion survey show that the number of citizens who are not satisfied with the measures is slightly higher than the number of those who are. Satisfaction with safety measures in schools (47% of the respondents) is a bit higher than satisfaction with measures related to gun control (54% of the respondents). Six months after the adoption of these measures, the satisfaction of citizens is visibly decreasing – 44% of them are satisfied with the measures, while 56% are not. Comparing the results of public opinion polls in 2023 with those from 2022, it is evident that citizens’ trust in institutions has dropped significantly: 63% trust the police (76% in 2022), 49% trust the courts (57%), and 50% trust the prosecutor’s office (56%). Also, the perception of citizens’ safety considering the environment has decreased at all levels: in their homes, neighbourhoods and in Serbia in general. Finally, the survey also showed that more citizens now feel threatened by phenomena such as murder (56%) and illegal possession of firearms (61%) than was the case in 2022 (murder 49%, illegal possession of firearms 54%).
Topic:
Security, Crime, and Gun Violence
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia