Publication Year: within 3 Years - CIAO Search Results

13001. Domestic and International (Dis)Order: A Strategic Response

Author:: Aspen Strategy Group
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The Aspen Strategy Group recently released Domestic and International (Dis)Order: A Strategic Response bringing together preeminent experts to explore race, democracy, and political divisions on the American home front; the future of U.S.-China relations; the global economy; and U.S. foreign policy priorities for 2021. Contributors include: Madeleine K. Albright, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Zoë Baird, Robert D. Blackwill, Nicholas Burns, Kurt M. Campbell, Diana Farrell, Peter Feaver, Michael J. Green, Naima Green-Riley, Jane Harman, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Wolfgang Ischinger, Aditi Kumar, Anja Manuel, David McCormick, John McLaughlin, Shivshankar Menon, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., David H. Petraeus, Tom Pritzker, Condoleezza Rice, Senator Tim Scott, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Torrey Taussig, and Philip Zelikow.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, Race, Military Strategy, Democracy, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

13002. The Politics of Vulnerability: Can Muslims and Evangelicals Find Common Cause in Religious Freedom?

Author:: Inclusive America Project
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The Inclusive America Project (IAP) is pleased to publish our new report, “The Politics of Vulnerability: Can Muslims and Evangelicals Find Common Cause in Religious Freedom?” Across all of the fault lines that are polarizing Americans today, one of the thorniest is the relationship between conservative White Evangelical Christians and Muslims, a relationship that has become tied up with broader ideological and political divides facing the country. “The Politics of Vulnerability” explores this relationship and asks how religious freedom can be used as a paradigm to bring Muslims and White Evangelical Christians into conversation with each other over their shared concerns about religious freedom. IAP Fellow for Religious Freedom Asma Uddin argues that the fight over religious freedom is ultimately a fight over American identity, and who gets to claim this identity. “The Politics of Vulnerability” summarizes the major findings of two closed-door convenings held by the Inclusive America Project in March 2020 that brought together experts in religious theology, religious freedom, and interfaith work. These meetings were a part of the larger Politics of Vulnerability Project, which seeks to use religious freedom as a framework to bring Muslims and Evangelical Christians in the United States into conversation around their constitutional religious freedom rights, the prominent challenges to those rights, and the impacts that deprivation of those rights would have on both communities and on all other Americans. The First Amendment and its promise of religious freedom protects people of all faiths and none, and is one crucial piece of the puzzle of American religious pluralism.
Topic:: Religion, Minorities, Discrimination, Pluralism, and Freedom of Religion
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

13003. A Procurement Path to Equity

Author:: Center for Urban Innovation
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Local governments are big buyers. Here in the U.S., our state and city governments collectively spend 1.6 trillion dollars per year. But for too long, how and with whom our local governments spend their money has reinforced economic inequities in our country. Minority-owned small businesses have been historically locked out of opportunities to contract with governments, and the current crisis has disproportionately impacted these very enterprises.
Topic:: Governance, Inequality, Business, Local, Equality, and Equity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

13004. A National Cybersecurity Agenda for Resilient Digital Infrastructure

Author:: Aspen Cybersecurity Group
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: As the White House changes hands and Congress begins a new term, there is ample opportunity to find bipartisan consensus on key cybersecurity priorities. This document outlines achievable action steps for federal policymakers to make rapid progress toward a more resilient digital infrastructure. Some can be accomplished in weeks or months; others will take years. Fortunately, the federal government is not alone. Cyberspace is ultimately the domain of civil society and private enterprise, sectors teeming with experts who can guide the White House and Congress as they grapple with the difficult tradeoffs inherent to any cybersecurity policy decision. In crafting the National Cybersecurity Agenda, the Aspen Cybersecurity Group sought input from a diverse network of partners in academia and industry. Together, we stand ready and willing to assist policymakers in cultivating a secure, reliable, and productive cyberspace.
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Resilience, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

13005. Gender Gaps in Education: The Long View

Author:: David Evans, Maryam Akmal, and Pamela Jakiela
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Many countries remain far from achieving gender equality in the classroom. Using data from 126 countries between 1960 and 2010, we document four facts. First, women are more educated today than fifty years ago in every country in the world. Second, they remain less educated than men in the vast majority of countries. Third, in many countries with low levels of education for both men and women in 1960, gender gaps widened as more boys went to school, then narrowed as girls enrolled; thus, gender gaps got worse before they got better. Fourth, gender gaps rarely persist in countries where boys are attaining high levels of education. Most countries with large, current gender gaps have low levels of male educational attainment. Many also perform poorly on other measures of development such as life expectancy and GDP per capita. Improving girls’ education is an important goal in its own right, but closing gender gaps in education will not be sufficient to close critical gaps in adult life outcomes.
Topic:: Education, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Inequality, Feminism, and Equality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13006. Creating an Accountability Framework that Serves the Global Fragility Act’s Mission

Author:: Susanna Campbell, Dan Hoing, and Sarah Rose
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: In the final days of 2019, Congress passed the Global Fragility Act, an ambitious bill that aims to im- prove how the US government approaches stabilizing conflict-affected states and preventing the es- calation of violence in other fragile contexts. Introduced by a coalition of lawmakers from both sides of the aisle in the House and Senate—led by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Eliot Engel (D- NY) and Senator Chris Coons (D-DE)—a version of the legislation was passed by the House this spring and boasted 26 cosponsors in the Senate. The Global Fragility Act’s final passage, as part of a large FY2020 spending bill, is a testament to bipartisan commitment and cooperation. The Global Fragility Act asks the State Department to create—jointly with USAID, the Department of Defense, and other agencies—a coordinated, coherent strategy to help prevent violence in fragile states and stabilize conflict-affected areas. As overseers of the taxpayer funds that will be used to implement the act, Congress also included several provisions to hold these agencies to account for achieving results. Accountability for results is important, especially when overseers are far removed from implementation. But how accountability is structured matters quite a bit. When accountability frameworks revolve largely around tight controls and reporting against targets, their good intentions can backfire and contribute to ineffective programming, especially in fragile states. To ensure that the Global Fragility Act’s accountability requirements support rather than undermine the act’s laudable goals, the monitoring, evaluation, and learning processes that accompany the act’s implementation must accomplish two linked but fundamentally distinct things. They must be able to satisfy Washington-based overseers’ reporting needs while also providing projects the space needed for locally informed adaptive management and learning (or continuous adjustment aimed at achiev- ing transformative aims in a dynamic context), which is associated with better outcomes in fragile states. The Global Fragility Act offers an opportunity to rethink the tools through which aid agencies pursue accountability. This note explains how tight controls and target-oriented reporting can nega- tively affect outcomes in fragile states and offers some initial recommendations for creating a stron- ger, outcome-oriented accountability framework.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Leadership, Fragile States, Legislation, and Accountability
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

13007. Constraints to Enhanced Revenue Mobilization and Spending Quality in Kenya

Author:: Nelson H.W. Wawire
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This study addresses constraints to enhanced revenue mobilization and spending quality in Kenya. The structure and growth of Kenya’s economy and spending quality have a bearing on its taxable capacity. Constraints to enhancement of revenue mobilization and spending quality include the existence of a large informal sector; inadequate information on property ownership; perceived corruption; inefficient use of public resources; political interference; volatile election cycles; abuse of tax incentives; uneven transfer pricing; illicit financial flows; and untaxed online businesses, coupled with poor administrative capacity and tax policy design. Policy implications on revenue performance are (1) the National Treasury and Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) should focus on property taxes and capital gains taxes to expand the tax base; (2) development partners are needed to direct technical assistance to the informal sector, to aid with transfer pricing, to monitor illicit financial flows, and to properly tax online businesses; (3) greater use of technology is needed to increase efficiency; (4) intervention by the Geospatial Information System is needed to link data on land and property ownership with tax information in the existing database; (5) a pay-for-results model needs to be deployed; (6) need to reduce tax expenditures; and policy reforms to be initiated in the agricultural sector. The policy implications on expenditure are (1) the need for efficient utilization of tax revenues; (2) the need for implementation of digital technologies; (3) the need to revisit an integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) configuration; (4) the need to adhere to long-term planning; and (5) adoption of the GFS 2014 reporting standard. Overall, an independent entity needs to be established that will set budget ceilings, monitor budget implementation, and carry out audits.
Topic:: Governance, Revenue Management, Public Spending, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

13008. Senegal: Making Domestic Resource Mobilization Work to Sustain Growth and Improve Service Delivery

Author:: Birahim Bouna Niang and Ahmadoi Aly Mbaye
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Senegal’s recent economic performance is impressive. For the first time, Senegal has achieved a GDP growth rate of more than 6 percent for three consecutive years (2015–2017), and per capita GDP has increased at an annual average of 4.1 percent. In parallel, progress in fiscal revenues has been recorded, with the ratio of average revenues to GDP increasing by 5.7 percentage points between 2000-2002 and 2014-2017, placing Senegal above the regional average of 15 percent. Notwithstanding, the performance of the Senegalese tax system is limited by the country’s narrow tax base, largely attributable to a sizable informal sector. Despite accounting for more than half of GDP, Senegal’s informal sector makes up less than 3 percent of total tax collection. Revenue collection is also limited by the fast-growing array of exemptions, and by tax expenditures. These special dispensations mainly went to multinationals with local branches in Senegal. Tax expenditure more than doubled between 2010 and 2014, from18.4 percent of tax revenues and 3.4 percent of GDP to 40 percent of tax revenues and 7.8 percent of GDP. According to some estimates, the cumulative costs are close to 18 percent of annual GDP. Other factors deterring effective domestic resource mobilization include poor governance and the limited technical capacity of the tax administration, failures of the information system, and weak system transparency. Expenditures are often ineffective, particularly in the education and health sectors. Improving the state of public finances requires reforms to strengthen technical and institutional capacities and to adapt the management framework in view of Senegal’s entry into the hydrocarbon era. This might include setting up a public finance monitoring committee, adopting new budgetary rules consistent with those set by the West African Economic and Monetary Union, building relevant tax administration capacities. On the expenditure front, actions are needed to improve the targeting of support programs for vulnerable groups, and to implement capacity-building programs for government officials in charge of project evaluation, including in the Planning Directorate and in technical ministries. Lastly, a systematic ex ante and ex post evaluation of public investments is needed.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Services, Mobilization, and Domestic Work
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

13009. A Post-Brexit Trade Policy for Development and a More Integrated Africa

Author:: Kimberly Ann Elliott
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The United Kingdom will confirm its departure from the European Union on 31st January 2020. As part of its independent trade policy, the government has committed to improve access to UK mar- kets for the poorest countries. This note sets out three ways it can do so: expanding duty-free market access while avoiding piecemeal trade agreements that undermine Africa’s own trade integration ef- forts; using an alternative framework for those trade agreements it does negotiate with developing countries; and supporting a “back-to-basics” multilateral negotiation at the World Trade Organiza- tion that could help to rebuild confidence in that institution and thus protect the interests of small and vulnerable countries. After a brief review of the background and context, it sets out specific pro- posals in each of these areas.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Africa, United Kingdom, and Europe

13010. From Principles to Practice: Strengthening Accountability for Gender Equality in International Development

Author:: Megan O'Donnell
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Existing accountability mechanisms focused on global gender equality are largely retrospective in nature. Where mechanisms do probe at governments’ commitments to future progress, they often lack accompanying incentive structures (“carrots and sticks”) to encourage ambition. Countries re- port their progress implementing the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women and the Beijing Platform for Action, participate in annual Commission on the Status of Women sessions, and touch on gender equality as part of voluntary national review reporting for the Sustainable Development Goals. Although these processes, among others, provide an opportu- nity for country reflection and for civil society engagement, they do not mandate that governments establish and adhere to forward-looking, specific commitments detailing how they aim to promote gender equality. The absence of future commitments makes it difficult for civil society actors to hold governments to account according to well-defined metrics. At the same time, governments and women’s rights advo- cates worldwide are increasingly discussing and adopting “feminist foreign policies” and “gender-re- sponsive budgeting.” There is a need to clearly define with robust and transparent metrics what these terms mean and how to hold countries who claim to be “feminist” and “gender-responsive” account- able for ambitious progress, while also encouraging other countries to increasingly prioritize gender equality.
Topic:: Development, Gender Issues, Inequality, Feminism, and Equality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13011. Actually Navigating by Judgment: Towards a New Paradigm of Donor Accountability Where the Current System Doesn’t Work

Author:: Dan Hoing
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This working paper explores how donors can move towards greater Navigation by Judgment, highlighting the actions people inside and outside aid agencies can work to make change— encouraging more Navigation by Judgment on the margin, starting today. It focuses principally on accepting the need for a very different way of measuring success and holding projects and personnel accountable, and when and why that might be a very good idea.
Topic:: Accountability, Transparency, Charity, and Donors
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13012. Blueprint for a Market-Driven Value-Based Advance Commitment for Tuberculosis

Author:: Kalipso Chalkidou, Martina Garau, Rachel Silverman, and Adrian Towse
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Innovation—delivering new drugs, diagnostics, and devices—is a critical tool in the global fight against disease and premature death. Yet despite the potential for innovation to improve health around the world, the pharmaceutical industry’s investments in research and development (R&D) generally neglect diseases of the poor in favour of more lucrative high-income markets. Responding to this R&D gap, donor “push” investments have helped advance an innovation agenda to serve low- and middle-income countries. Though these investments have helped accelerate market entry of several important innovations, other donor-push products have fizzled upon market entry due to unaffordable or non-cost-effective pricing, disappointing efficacy, lack of political will, or lower-than-anticipated country demand. And with many large middle-income countries (MICs) poised to soon transition from donor aid, the sustainability of the current donor-led model is in question. Tuberculosis (TB), an infectious disease primarily affecting the poor and vulnerable, ranks among the top 10 global causes of death. Current TB treatment cycles are long and toxic, causing some patients to discontinue treatment, develop acquired drug resistance, and risk spreading a drug-resistant pathogen to others. Drug-resistant strains are more difficult to treat, traditionally requiring long-duration toxic regimens and high-cost hospitalization (though recent innovations offer a shorter, more tolerable, and more affordable treatment). Despite years of global investment in TB control, modelling suggests that global goals for TB cannot be achieved without major technological breakthroughs. One particularly desirable innovation would be a short-course universal drug regimen (UDR)—equally capable of treating drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains, with a two-month or shorter treatment duration. Donors, particularly the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), have funded substantial early-stage R&D to source new treatment compounds that could contribute to a UDR, but substantial additional investments in late-stage trials would be required to bring such a UDR to market.
Topic:: Health Care Policy, Drugs, Medicine, and Pharmaceuticals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13013. Managing Better: What All of Us Can Do to Encourage Aid Success

Author:: Dan Hoing
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Management by way of top-down controls and targets sometimes gets in the way of aid donors’ aims, undermining project success. These unhelpful controls often stem from a need to account for performance; legislatures or executive boards induce agencies to exercise tight process controls and orient projects towards what is measurable and reportable. My 2018 book, Navigation by Judgment, presents quantitative empirics from a database of 14,000 projects and qualitative evidence from eight case studies in support of this claim. I wrote the book in part because I imagined it would be useful to show aid agencies and authorizers empirics that demonstrated the problem—that the first step to change was recognition. But after talking about my book at aid agencies and authorizers, I am confident that while my 2018 diagnosis was right, my theory of change was all wrong.
Topic:: Leadership, Business, Accountability, Transparency, and Management
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13014. Exploring India's Strategic Futures

Author:: Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The method of major/minor trends developed in this report suggests that the roots of apparently surprising future behavior can be found in a close reading of a target state’s history. Using this method, the report outlines three unlikely but plausible alternative futures of India as a strategic actor. The first scenario envisions India as a Hindu-nationalist revisionist power hostile to Pakistan but accommodating of China; in the second, it is a militarily risk-acceptant state that provokes dangerous crises with China; and in the third scenario, India is a staunch competitor to China that achieves some success through partnerships with other U.S. rivals like Russia and Iran. These scenarios are designed not to predict the future but to sensitize U.S. policymakers to possible strategic disruptions. They also serve to highlight risks and tensions in current policy.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Nationalism, Religion, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

13015. The Effects of India’s COVID-19 Lockdown on Critical Non-COVID Health Care and Outcomes

Author:: Radhika Jain and Pascaline Dupas
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: India’s COVID-19 lockdown is widely believed to have disrupted critical health services, but its effect on non-COVID health outcomes is largely unknown. Comparing mortality trends among dialysis patients in the eight months around the lockdown with the previous year, we document a 64% increase in mortality between March and May 2020 and an estimated 22-25% total excess mortality through July 2020. The mortality increase is greater among females and disadvantaged groups. Barriers to transportation and disruptions in hospital services appear to be the main drivers of increased morbidity and mortality. The results highlight the unintended consequences of the lockdown on critical and life-saving non-COVID health services that must be taken into account in the implementation of future policy efforts to control the spread of pandemics.
Topic:: Public Health, Transportation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Hospitals
Political Geography:: India and Asia

13016. A Guide to Investigating Outbreak Origins

Author:: Richard Pilch, Miles A. Pomper, Jill Luster, and Filippa Lentzos
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:: COVID-19 has exposed key gaps in the global community’s ability to assess infectious disease outbreaks of international concern, in particular the ability to differentiate between natural and laboratory sources of infection. The risk of natural outbreaks is increasing as unchecked population growth, industrial expansion, and corresponding ecological disruption increases the likelihood that novel disease agents will come into contact with naïve human populations. Likewise, the risk of laboratory accidents is increasing as more high-containment laboratories are built and higher risk experiments are conducted around the world. Meanwhile, a deliberate biological attack may resemble an outbreak of natural or accidental origin, and a natural or accidental outbreak may be misattributed as an attack. The purpose of this Occasional Paper is to outline a readily adoptable, stepwise methodology to guide the investigation of corresponding outbreak origins, building upon traditional epidemiological principles. We have sought to remain minimally intrusive at all times; however, an increasing level of need-to-know information, site, and personnel access becomes necessary as attention shifts toward potential laboratory sources. Accordingly, we include recommendations to ensure such access under existing international regimes, primarily the World Health Organization (WHO)’s International Health Regulations.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Science and Technology, World Health Organization, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13017. Implementing the Mop Barrier Assessment Methodology With the Zambia Police Service

Author:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: In the context of the Canadian-led Elsie Initiative aiming to reduce barriers for uniformed women in UN Peace Operations, DCAF has developed the Measuring Opportunities for Women in Peace Operations (MOWIP) methodology, in partnership with Cornell University and research institutions in eight troop- and police contributing countries across the world. The MOWIP methodology aims to provide institutions with the evidence base necessary to design effective interventions which substantially increase the number of women who deploy. While it is currently being piloted in 7 other countries, the MOWIP methodology was successfully implemented in Zambia with the Zambia Police Service (ZPS) between May 2019 and March 2020, in partnership with the Southern African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (SACCORD). This resource highlights the key takeaways from the process of implementing the MOWIP methodology in Zambia along with good practices and lessons learned at each stage, including the preparation phase, the data collection phase, the data analysis phase and the validation phase. It aims to provide guidance to TPCCs or security institutions interested in implementing the MOWIP methodology themselves regarding the resources and time commitment required, and outlines the outcomes and benefits of undergoing the Barrier Assessment for the ZPS.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Police, and Models
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

13018. Impact of COVID-19 on Security Sector Governance

Author:: Dawn Lui
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: The unprecedented impact of COVID-19 on societies and their institutions has led to a series of extraordinary responses by governments around the world. COVID-19 has affected all dimensions of the security sector, from principles and values to cross-cutting issues, and from security providers to security overseers. The objective of this Briefing Note is to map the substantive impact of COVID-19 on security sector governance (SSG) in order to calibrate policy and operational responses, as well as to explore how this impact may be mitigated, while working towards the overarching goal of ensuring the provision of improved security for individuals, communities, and states.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13019. Applying Human Rights Principles to the Liberian Security Sector

Author:: Jean Conte and Aloysius Toe
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Comprehensive and practical, these guidelines are designed to support Liberian lawmakers in applying human rights principles to their work in security sector reform and governance. In their capacity as the peoples’ representatives, parliamentarians have a critical role to play in promoting respect for human rights. This is even more relevant in Liberia, where security institutions are often reported as the most prominent violators of human rights, notably among vulnerable groups, such as women and LGBTI persons. Therefore, it is essential to reassert that respect for human rights is an obligation deriving from both international instruments and the Liberian Constitution, and to strengthen the security sector’s compliance with these legally binding instruments. Through their core functions of oversight, law-making and representation, Liberian legislators possess an array of tools to help them achieve this objective. However, their lack of basic human rights knowledge and key reform and governance concepts hampers their effective use of these tools. These guidelines aim to bridge this knowledge gap and suggest concrete steps to help Liberian Legislators succeed in this endeavour. Following a brief discussion on why Liberian lawmakers must actively promote respect for human rights in the security sector (Chapter 1), these guidelines lay out what the main international human rights standards and instruments are (Chapters 2 and 3), and make suggestions on how legislators can integrate them in their daily practice (Chapter 4).
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Governance, Legislation, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Liberia

13020. International and Regional Laws and Instruments Related to Gender Equality and the Security and Justice Sector

Author:: Nenad Galic and Megan Bastick
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: This Annex is part of the DCAF, OSCE/ODIHR, UN Women Gender and Security Toolkit. It compiles regional and international laws and policies related to gender and the security and justice sectors and is meant to accompany Tools and Policy Briefs found in the Toolkit.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Law, Justice, and Equality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13021. Mapping Study on the Security Sector of Turkmenistan

Author:: Grazvydas Jasutis, Richard Steyne, and Elizaveta Chmykh
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: This study maps key security actors in Turkmenistan, determines their competencies and examines oversight powers and the role of oversight bodies in the broader national security system. It analyses security sector reforms across the intelligence, defence and law-enforcement spheres. Turkmenistan’s presidential system and status of permanent neutrality make its security system unique, even within the context of Central Asia. Surrounded by Afghanistan, Iran, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the country deals with significant geopolitical and security challenges that determine their foreign and security policy. The study aims to contribute to a better understanding of their security system, particularly in light of the recent developments and changes that have occurred in the security sector. Written and edited by DCAF experts, the study relies on primary and secondary data sources, and concludes with recommendations on the areas of the Turkmen security sector which could benefit from reform. To this end, the study aims to provide guidance and stimulate debate on how national authorities and international actors might better promote human rights and good governance principles in the security sector of Turkmenistan.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Asia and Turkmenistan

13022. Insights and Lessons Learned From Croatia's Intelligence Reforms

Author:: Dragan Lozancic
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: This paper provides insights into intelligence reform efforts in Croatia, including lessons learned by the author during his tenure as director of Croatia’s Security and Intelligence Agency and recommendations for reform efforts in countries in transition. More specifically, the paper provides insights into the main challenges faced during the reform processes, starting from the adjustments of the legal frameworks, to the implementation of the reform agenda. As a starting point, the agency’s self-assessment helped to identify intelligence requirements and priorities and pointed to the need of investing in the development of new and effective intelligence capabilities within the service. Maybe one of the most important insights was the acknowledgement that effective oversight helped earning public trust and respect. Modernization and transformation processes had to address decentralization of authority, the balancing of privacy rights and the initiation of a public dialogue on the role and future of intelligence.
Topic:: Intelligence, Governance, Reform, Privacy, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Europe, Balkans, and Croatia

13023. Exploring Armed Groups in Libya:

Author:: Emadeddin Badi
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Libya’s security sector has become virtually unrecognizable from what it was a decade ago owing to the transformations brought about since the 2011 revolution. This evolution has implications on any attempts to usher in short-term and interim security arrangements as well as longer-term security sector reform (SSR) efforts. The paper explores the impact of different dimensions of these transformations on security provision in the Libyan landscape. In doing so, it aims to highlight the implications this has on attempts to reform the country’s hybrid security sector, and more broadly, how SSR doctrine can be informed by its findings.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

13024. Input to the Review of The UN Defense Sector Reform Policy

Author:: Vincenza Scherrer and Alba Bescos Pou
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: This report has been developed by DCAF, the Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, at the request of the Security Sector Reform Unit (SSRU) of the United Nations Department of Peace Operations. The report presents the findings of a multi-year research project aimed at mapping and analysing Security Council mandates on defence sector reform and the Secretary-General Reports reporting on their implementation. This research project has been developed as part of the broader formal review of the UN Policy on Defence Sector Reform (2011) that the SSR Unit is leading in coordination with the UN Inter-Agency SSR Task Force. Based on the findings of the review, the report has issued a set of recommendations for members of the UN Security Council, staff of the UN Secretariat, and for the Policy review process more specifically.
Topic:: Defense Policy, International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, and Reform
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13025. Moldova Cybersecurity Governance Assessment

Author:: Natalia Spinu
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: This report is a two-factor analysis of cybersecurity, including the legislative framework and key national actors in cybersecurity. The report presents the main cybersecurity threats in Moldova and the needs arising from national security objectives. After analysing the national cybersecurity strategy for Moldova, an identification and need for the main actors within the state who would be responsible for the implementation of the national strategy on cybersecurity was undertaken. A national action plan for cybersecurity was designed. It was understood that for a responsible and developed society there is a necessity to collaborate with the private sector and academia, and thus a robust cooperation and communication mechanism was described to include all the relevant stakeholders. The report reflects the conclusions and final remarks that have made the operational cybersecurity architecture in Moldova an elaborate framework.
Topic:: Security, National Security, Governance, Cybersecurity, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Europe and Moldova

13026. Measuring the Progress in Realizing the Strategy “Europe 2020” in 2010-2016 in 28 European Union Member States

Author:: Piotr Siemiatkowski
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The paper presents the results of the research over the measurement of the progress in the realization of the objectives specified in “Europe 2020 - a strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth” in 2016 in comparison with 2010. The analysis availed itself of the statistical data of Eurostat which describes the main indicators of the strategy for all member states of the European Union. The available empirical data allowed for constructing a synthetic measure reflecting the progress in realizing the objectives specified in the Strategy. The analysis of the values that the said measure assumed became a basis for creating a rating of EU member states for two distinct years that were subject to scrutiny. Also, there was specified the variation in the value of the said measure and the changes in the positions occupied by particular states in the mentioned rating. What was also conducted was a cluster analysis, which allowed for dividing the scrutinized countries into groups in case they are described by more than one property. Except for this and as compared to all the previous works on the subject, the method of the construction of the synthetic measure was considerably sharpened.
Topic:: International Cooperation, European Union, Economic Growth, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: Europe

13027. Poland’s Cultural Relations with Middle-Eastern Arab Countries

Author:: Jacek Knopek and Zbigniew Danielewicz
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article takes up the subject of Poland’s cultural relations with some Middle Eastern Arab countries, i.e. with Iraq, Jordan, Syria and Palestine in particular. It has been done in historical perspective, analyzing development of the connections, the determinants influencing the course of changes, and political events and processes that have been strengthening or weakening the ties. Despite the long geographical distance between Poland and the Middle East, the cultural ties have turned out to be astonishingly rich, which was so partly due to the idiosyncrasy of their history - abound with wars and full of dramatic transformations. The three-part text begins with a historic overview of the relations that have gained a momentum during the World War II and in the post-war decades. Part two concerns the relations on official diplomatic level, usually ending up in initialed agreements and exchanging official visits. And the last part scrutinizes the spontaneous grassroots links forged between groups, individuals and non-political institutions. In this case the links embrace the field of academia, education, high culture and private lives of individuals and families.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Religion, Culture, and Local
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Poland

13028. Model Changes of Polish Public Administration and Processes of Political and Structural Transformation

Author:: Agnieszka Lipska-Sondecka
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The model transformations of Polish public administration after 1989 were the result of the necessary and inevitable consequence of events related to erosion and the collapse of the „real socialism” system. Its internal decomposition, as a result of social reality inadequacy, created a situation in which it was possible to undertake deep systemic reforms in Poland. Democratization of the government system in Poland was an extremely complex process generating numerous problems and showing the scale of adversity in all spheres of social life. All political and structural changes in Poland after 1989 were also possible due to propitious external, international conditions. Especially the collapse of the USSR brought certain possibilities for Poland and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe to regain full sovereignty, which was later expressed in membership in NATO, the Council of Europe, and then European Union accession. As a result of the systemic and political transformation process, the administration has become an extremely important cell in the democratic legal order and the entity responsible for the implementation of a significant part of public tasks at the local, supra-local and regional levels.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Social Services, Models, and Public Service
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

13029. Changes in the Party System in the Context of Deconsolidation of Democracy in Poland

Author:: Waldemar Wojtasik
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The party system and the parties within it were ones of the relevant elements of system transformation in Poland. We can identify several significant determinants of the process with regard to this area. The first of them is formal standards and their influence on the course of political competition. The second is the functions attributed to political parties in the political and party system. The third one is connected with the significance of social structure’s specificity and its influence on voting behaviors. The fourth determinant is the models of competition at the cabinet level. The paper presents these four determinants of development of political parties and the party system in Poland in the perspective of democratization processes.
Topic:: Democracy, Voting, Participation, and Party System
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

13030. Directions of Poland’s Energy Security Policy in the Natural Gas Sector

Author:: Malgorzata Kamola-Cieslik
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Poland has insufficient natural gas resources to satisfy its needs. That is why it has been dependent on the imports of that raw material. One of the challenges facing the Polish government is limiting Poland’s dependency on Russian gas. The objective of the paper is to present the directions of the Polish government’s energy security policy in terms of natural gas in the years of 2015-2018. Particular attention was paid to the assumptions and the implementation of the government’s gas policy in terms of the situation in the European Union gas market. An attempt was made to answer the question: To what extent have the assumptions of policy of the government of the Law and Justice party regarding Poland’s gas security been realized? In an attempt to answer the question so formulated, the following methods were used in the study: a decision-making method, formal-legal method, statistical and comparative methods. On the grounds of the conducted research, it needs to be concluded that after 2015, as a result of the government’s policy, the imports of natural gas from the east to Poland were reduced with a simultaneous diversification of the direction from which this raw material was delivered. The resignation from the deliveries of Russian gas to Poland after 2022 will be possible thanks to putting Baltic Pipe gas pipeline into operation and raising the flow capacity of Świnoujście LNG terminal. The implementation of these investments will have a positive impact on the improvement of Poland’s gas security. Failure to launch the investments and an increase of gas consumption in Poland will make it necessary to conclude a short-term Polish-Russian agreement for imports of that fuel to Poland.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Natural Resources, European Union, and Gas
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

13031. Religious Determinants of Socio-Political Openness of Young Silesians in Poland

Author:: Agnieszka Turska-Kawa
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The aim of the presented study was to diagnose the role of religious engagement in the social attitudes of young Silesians, operationalized on the continuum of closeness vs. openness in three areas: (1) community engagement, (2) approval for religion’s interference in the public space, and (3) accepting Catholic Church hierarchs’ views on problems such as euthanasia, artificial contraception, homosexual relationships and in vitro fertilization. The group defined in the presented study is young (age: 16-19) Silesians from Śląskie (Silesian) Province, for whom religion is one of the fundamental values and is regarded by scholars as the core of their identity (N=567). The results of the study confirm that religious engagement is a significant predictor of a closed social attitude in two out of three areas proposed in the model. Higher religious engagement promotes the desire to incorporate the approved religious principles into the secular space. Religious engagement is also a significant predictor of acceptance of Catholic Church hierarchs’ views on underlined problems. The analysis did not show any significant relationships between religious engagement in community engagement of young Silesians.
Topic:: Religion, Minorities, Community, and Equality
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

13032. Memory and Politics of Memory in Terms of the Memes Theory. With Reference to an Example of the Idea of Polish Heroism

Author:: Anna Ratke-Majewska
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The purpose of the article is to verify the hypothesis that the idea of Polish heroism constitutes an effectively duplicating and spreading meme, and stories of the past constructed in the framework of Polish politics of memory will be effective precisely when they refer to memes duplicated most often in the community. The article proves therefore that the Polish state politics of memory should be shaped on the basis of memes that replicate the most in Polish society, because only then does it have a chance to achieve its goals. What is more, this principle can also be applied to other countries that pursue a politics of memory. It was possible to obtain answers to the research questions raised in the text (in order to verify the hypotheses) due to the use of mutually complementary research methods: analysis of narrative structures and content analysis. The article presents the results of the author’s own research with comments and conclusions.
Topic:: Politics, Memory, Community, and Heroism
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

13033. Uzbekistan: A State Undergoing Total Reconstruction

Author:: Tadeusz Bodio
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This study attempts to demonstrate the reform strategies implemented in the last three years in Uzbekistan. The author focuses on analyzing the implementation of five priorities of this strategy - the dialogue between the authorities and society, human resources and management system, economy and social sphere, security and foreign policy. He devotes a great deal of attention to present the image of the architect of these reforms - the president of the state. The author emphasizes that the style of exercising power, including the implementation of reforms by Shavkat Mirziyoyev, fits into the model of transformational leadership. It is a reforming, missionary, and servant (national) leadership tailored to the expectations and aspirations of the society, but also burdened with high risk, regardless of the starting conditions for the reconstruction of the state.
Topic:: Security, State Building, Transition, Management, and Human Resources
Political Geography:: Asia and Uzbekistan

13034. Conceptualizing the Theoretical Category of Neo-militant Democracy: The Case of Hungary

Author:: Joanna Rak
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article aims to formulate a theoretical category of neo-militant democracy that applies to study the nature and dynamics of democratic regimes after the 2008 economic crisis. It conducts an empirical test to verify the analytical effectiveness of the redeveloped category. The test takes a form of the case study of the Hungarian political system. Apart from a verification-objective, the research aims to identify and account for the dynamics of the Hungarian regime in terms of the neo-militant democracy principle. The qualitative method of source analysis serves to collect data on the processes of becoming neo-militant democracy. The selection of sources is deliberate and oriented on finding information about the implementation of neo-militant democracy measures in Hungary (2008-2019). The technique of qualitative content analysis applies to identify the nature of these processes. The theoretical tool is the category of neo-militant democracy, which simultaneously undergoes the empirical test. The main argument is that the process of becoming neo-militant democracy took a traditional form since the Hungarian neo-militant democracy principle drew on the traditional means introduced by Loewenstein rather than innovations advanced by the current research
Topic:: Religion, Democracy, Theocracy, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

13035. Political Process, Crisis and Legitimacy in Poland

Author:: Hector Calleros
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The paper examines the conflict over the control of the integration of Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal (CT) that evolved into a constitutional crisis in October 2015 - and has extended for more than two years. It identifies issues that help understand how the Polish Democracy does not impede the erosion of constitutional democracy as the conflict has undermined the CT and the function of judicial review (JR). The article examines issues of legitimacy that emerge from the crisis; it also examines the extent to which the institutional settings condition the operation of the JR function; in particular, it looks at the role of executive actors (the Government and the President), and the role of the political/parliamentary party in bridging the separation of powers.
Topic:: Politics, Democracy, Constitution, Legitimacy, and Justice
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

13036. Where Does the Buck Stop with the Backstop? The Irish-UK Border in Brexit Negotiations: June 2016-January 2019

Author:: Paul McNamara
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The abject failure of British Prime Minister Theresa May to get the United Kingdom’s (UK) Withdrawal Agreement from the European Union (EU) through Parliament on 15 January 2019, with MPs overwhelmingly rejecting it by 432 votes to 202, has been put down to a variety of reasons. Primary among them has been the question of the post-Brexit status of the land border between the Republic of Ireland and the UK’s province of Northern Ireland. Although an issue which was initially seen as of minor importance, the significance of the Irish border steadily grew over time until it became the main stumbling block in UKEU Brexit negotiations brought about by the decision of the British people to leave the EU in a referendum held on 23 June 2016. Indeed, the key term of the ensuing debate, namely ‘the Irish backstop’, produced such confusion among politicians, political pundits and the general public that the House of Commons, split between so-called Brexiteers and Remainers, decided to reject May’s deal out of hand. This article seeks to argue that, from June 2016 (the time of the referendum) up to January 2019 (the time of the first vote on May’s Brexit deal in Parliament), the issue of the Irish backstop was seriously underestimated before suddenly taking centre stage and ultimately sabotaging the Withdrawal Agreement from within.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, and Borders
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Ireland

13037. Space Defense in Europe. Policy and Security Aspects

Author:: Malgorzata Polkowska
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Today countries participating in space activities, share serious concerns about militarization of space. The defense of space can become an important issue in the international arena, because counteracting emerging threats will probably be associated not only with the development of technology and operational capabilities, but also with the creation of political alliances or attempts at international agreement on certain “rules of the game” for space operations. Ultimately, the growing importance of “space for defense” creates the need for “defense of space”. Individual countries remain the main actors in the field of space defense. Military strategies are defined at national level, and the development and exploitation of military space assets are managed by national organizations. Today, most European countries recognize space as a strategic area, next to land, sea, air and, increasingly, cyberspace, but they have adopted different policies and doctrines depending on their sensitivity, priorities and concerns. European space forces also have different governance structures with significant differences in the distribution of roles and responsibilities, including space agencies and private entities.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Space
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13038. Studying Political Violence Using Game Theory Models: Research Approaches and Assumptions

Author:: Mateusz Wajzer
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The purpose of the paper is to concisely present basic applications of game theory models for a scientific description of political violence. The paper is divided into four parts. The first part discusses the key theoretical issues including: the assumption of the players’ rationality, the assumption of the players’ common knowledge of their rationality, the Nash equilibrium concept, Pareto optimality, the Nash arbitration scheme and the concept of evolutionarily stable strategies. The second and third parts contain examples of uses of selected models of classical and evolutionary games in the studies on political violence. The following two interaction schemes were used to that end: the Prisoner’s Dilemma and Chicken. The paper ends with a summary and discussion. The key feature of the discussed models is their methodological simplicity, as demonstrated by the lack of need to use complicated mathematical methods. This is why the paper is mainly addressed to individuals who had not studied game theory before or who have insufficient knowledge in the field to conduct own studies.
Topic:: Political Violence, Violence, Models, and Game Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13039. Generationally Diversified Labor Groups in Contemporary Labor Market. A Chance or a Threat for Organizations?

Author:: Rafal Muster
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Demographic changes connected with aging of Polish society shall determine the situation in the labor market to an ever-growing extent. The increase of average lifespan in combination with limited options of early retirement and smaller supply of employees shall lead to higher percentage of personnel aged 60 and more inside organizations. All these factors signify that more and more frequently contemporary companies shall function with personnel characterized by a truly large age gap. Undoubtedly, age of employees significantly influences their attitude to work, system of values, loyalty toward both the co-workers and the employer, as well their professional ambitions. In spite of these major differences, individuals from various generations will be forced to cooperate in the same teams. This article presents partial results of empiric studies dealing with the issue of generational diversification of human resources conducted in local labor market of the city of Ruda Śląska, both among the employees and employers. Opinions of employees and employers concerning the quality of mutual cooperation of individuals characterized by large age differences have been analyzed and simultaneously potential opportunities for mutual learning of employees belonging to different age groups have been presented.
Topic:: Civil Society, Demographics, Labor Issues, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

13040. Maritime Biodiversity from the French State’s Perspective

Author:: Joanna Siekiera
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: “Together, protecting marine biodiversity: know how to act” was the French governmental conference organized by three ministries in Paris on 12 March 2020. Ministry of Higher Education, Research and Innovation, Ministry of Agriculture and Alimentation, and Ministry for the Ecological and Inclusive Transition along with two research think tanks, Ifremer and OFB have organized the “day of biodiversity”. Participants were mostly researchers, governmental and local officials, business leaders, fishermen, representatives of associations and foundations, all from France. Thus, the language of the conference was French. The conference took place in the 13th century Collège of Bernardins, a former Cistercian college of the historic University of Paris. Experts and audience shared reflections and discussions on major research issues on ocean change, as well as the French position towards global maritime policy in order to find proposals for sustainable management and protection of the ocean.
Topic:: Climate Change, Maritime, Diversity, and Oceans and Seas
Political Geography:: Europe and France

13041. A Lioness Turned into a Fox. A Political Realist View of Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi

Author:: Michal Lubina
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: For long Aung San Suu Kyi has been considered a global hero. After 2012, however, that deification has given way to condemnation. Suu Kyi was a hero; a hero who after 2012 betrayed the alleged values. The reason of this radical change of perception is the fact that until 2012 Suu Kyi had been considered a personification of idealism in politics and for “betraying” these values she has been criticized since then. This article claims that both mentioned discourses on Suu Kyi miss the point and are being built on wrong assumptions. Contrary to popular belief Suu Kyi has always been a politician; more: a realist politician. Therefore, the aspects that should be questioned are not whether is she a good or bad one or whether she turned away from the people or even whether she has changed or not, etc. The question is, whether she is a skillful politician – she must be judged by the ethic of responsibility. Suu Kyi’s tactics evolved according with changing political circumstances – she combined two archetypes of political behavior: that of a “lion”, or rather “lioness” and that of a “fox”. That itself shows one thing: Suu Kyi possesses prudence, the ultimate political value.
Topic:: Governance, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Leadership, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

13042. Recognition of National Football Federations and the Diplomatic Role of FIFA

Author:: Michal Marcin Kobierecki
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The paper refers to the category of sports diplomacy and aims to investigate the issue of diplomatic subjectivity of international sports organizations, by the example of FIFA and its prerogative to grant membership to national football federations. Such processes on some occasions are connected to political and diplomatic significance, particularly in relation to states without universal international recognition, for whom participation in international sport is an important tool in their struggle for legitimization. The research question that the author attempts to answer is whether membership of national sports organization in the international sports federations can be meaningful from the perspective of the state’s endeavors toward securing international recognition. The hypothesis stated that the prerogative of international sports bodies such as FIFA to recognize national sports federations enhances their diplomatic subjectivity.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Sports, Football, and FIFA
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13043. The Functions and Problems of China’s State-Owned Economy

Author:: Wei-xiao Jia
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: At the national symposium on the reform of state-owned enterprises, General Secretary Xi Jinping gave important instructions that state-owned enterprises are important forces in strengthening the country’s overall strength and safeguarding the common interests of the people. Therefore, the country must make state-owned enterprises „stronger, better, and bigger”. Huge objections arose in the academic field. This article thoroughly analyzes China’s state-owned economy from the perspective of Marx’s historical materialism, national productivity, and social development, and clarifies the historical status and role of China’s state-owned economy. At the same time, this article comprehensively analyzes the economic significance of making state-owned enterprises „stronger, better, and bigger” from the perspective of total factor productivity, and proposes that since the state-owned economy is backed up by the state, investing in technology research and development has its advantages. However, because the state-owned economy is biased toward administrative instructions, it often lacks efficiency, so if the state-owned economy wants to become „stronger, better, and bigger”, it must undergo reforms in terms of management efficiency.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, Reform, State Building, State-Owned Enterprises, and Productivity
Political Geography:: China and Asia

13044. Dangerous, Yet Not So Unique. Characteristics of the Chinese Social Credit System

Author:: Jan Pabisiak
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Since 2015, the Social Credit System - an initiative of the government of the People’s Republic of China which aims to strengthen trustworthiness of the business entities and citizens, promote obedience to law and customs, and develop the Communist Party of China’s control over social trends and potential threats to the political stability - has been attracting worldwide attention. International media portrays the System as a mechanism which leads China to totalitarianism and destroys hope for development of the Chinese democratic movement. Therefore, interests of both sides, the West and China, are seen as contradictory. Harmful beliefs like the one that Chinese still export products of poor quality and on the Chinese side that the Western ideals lead to demoralization are common thanks to some sort of Occidental and Oriental propaganda. That is why it is necessary to compile and analyze the known facts regarding the Social Credit System, which in contrast to the media narration turns out to be a tool with interesting capabilities, not necessarily contradictory to the other major civilizations’ values.
Topic:: Governance, Business, Surveillance, and Credit
Political Geography:: China and Asia

13045. Illuminating Shanghai: Light, Heritage, Power

Author:: Karolina Pawlik
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This paper explores the complex connection between heritage, light and power in Shanghai since the late 19th Century, and seeks a new understanding of how mutually coupled legacies of modernity, socialism and cosmopolitanism continue to shape this city’s unique identity and image. It focuses on the recent ideological remake of the skyline along the Huangpu River, achieved largely through the flamboyant illumination designed in 2018. Combining a number of visual and textual sources with fieldwork, it reveals the persistent symbolic role the city has played in a triumphant socialist cause, and assesses how past promises of a new Shanghai and a bright future for China have been sustained in the Reform Era. It forms a preliminary attempt to depict what the author argues should be perceived and studied as the engineering of a new propaganda medium which intersects with urban space governance. The implications of this project are discussed in the context of the threats and opportunities for Shanghai in terms of maintaining the city’s unique character and meaning coming from its own history and culture, rather than in terms of Shanghai simply being a vehicle for China’s modernity.
Topic:: Media, Propaganda, Urban, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:: China, Shanghai, and Asia

13046. A Comparison of Nisga’a Self-Government and International Standards of Indigenous Self-Determination

Author:: Agnieszka Szpak
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The paper concentrates on the right to self-determination of indigenous peoples on the basis of the Nisga’a Nation. The author analyzes the most important provisions of the Nisga’a Final Agreement, in particular those envisaging self-determination of the Nisga’a Nation. Then the author briefly examines the Nisga’a Constitution which may be regarded as a means to implement the Nisga’a Final Agreement. It shows how the Nisga’a selfgovernance model fits into the provisions on self-determination of indigenous peoples. The thesis of this paper is that the Nisga’a self-governance is consonant with international legal standards expressed in the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Nisga’a selfgovernment model is much more than just cultural autonomy: it actually amounts to political autonomy. This subject is worth exploring because it may serve as a pattern to be followed with reference to other indigenous peoples, not only in Canada.
Topic:: Governance, Self Determination, Leadership, and Indigenous
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

13047. Possibility of Implementing the Concept of the Intermarium in the Context of Militant Democracy in Poland During and After the Coronavirus Pandemic

Author:: Kamila Rezmer-Płotka
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Intermarium is one of the most important Polish geopolitical concepts. This article considers it within the category of militant democracy. It allows to explore the process of militant democracy, that is, introducing restrictions by legal means. Most restrictions have recently been introduced due to a coronavirus pandemic. Therefore, the article undertakes to examine the potential for implementation of the concept of the Intermarium during the pandemic and shortly after its end. The study uses a qualitative analysis of sources. Indicators relevant to the study of the process of militant democracy were distinguished based on the body of literature. Results: The traditional concept of the Intermarium erodes due to natural causes. Currently, Poland is more inclined to the concept of the Three Seas. In addition, in the face of the analysis that was carried out, it seems that in a pandemic situation we are observing the end of the paradigm of liberal democracy in this case.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Democracy, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

13048. Research on Systemic Transformation in the Countries of Central Asia

Author:: Tadeusz Bodio
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article presents the goals, tasks, organization and major stages of implementation of the international programme of research on transformation in the countries Central Asia. The research has been conducted since 1997 by a team of political scientists from the University of Warsaw in cooperation with representatives of other Polish and foreign universities.
Topic:: Politics, Social Movement, Modernization, and Transition
Political Geography:: Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

13049. Political Trust vs. Turnout in Modern Democracies

Author:: Izabela Kapsa
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article analyzes the relations between political trust - one of the most important values in the life of political communities - and election-related behaviors in the narrow meaning of voting. Researchers investigate the phenomenon of decreasing turnout as one of the expressions of democratic crisis. When studying such a complex problem, it is essential to search for multi-theme causes which might be helpful in understanding the topic and possibly finding a solution for it. The author of this article, while assuming the correctness of analyzes conducted thus far, which indicate that the problem lies in weaker attachment to political parties, less interest in politics and inadequate tools, raises questions whether the decreasing turnout in individual states may be related to the level of trust that citizens put in political institutions and whether there is a relation between these both indicators. In order to answer these questions, the author employs a quantitative analysis of data which derive from reports containing percentage levels of political trust and turnout in the elections, a comparative analysis, as well as an overview of literature on the subject.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13050. Changes in the Electoral Code and Their Impact on the Security of the Election The Origin for Discussion Based on Selected Comments

Author:: Karol Pachnik
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: After the local government elections in Poland in 2018, the adopted solutions aimed at increasing the security of the elections were reviewed. Some of the solutions adopted so far have been abandoned, such as transmissions from the polling station, while others have been minimized (the division of the precinct electoral commissions in the precinct electoral commission for voting in the region and the precinct electoral commission for determining the results of voting in the region). In public opinion polls, the National Electoral Commission achieved record of confidence.
Topic:: Security, Elections, Democracy, and Local
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

13051. Challenges of Georgia’s Pension System

Author:: Jaba Urotadze
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: In 2018, a mandatory funded pension model (second pillar) was introduced in Georgia. At present, the Georgian pension system has three pillars, but the reform does not apply to current pensioners. If society does not trust all three pillars, the chances of reversing the pension reform will rise for two reasons. First, the replacement rate from the first pillar (state redistributive pension) is much lower than in any of the OECD member states. Second, for the majority of participants of the second pillar, pension payments will start in 20-25 years’ time. Such a long period creates uncertainty for many about whether long-term economic growth will be achieved, which in turn would make possible an adequate level of retirement income. This paper attempts to identify means of increasing replacement rates for the state redistributive pension and coverage of the voluntary funded third pillar. The research provides recommendations to enhance the Georgian pension system.
Topic:: Reform, Social Services, Pension, and Public Service
Political Geography:: Europe and Georgia

13052. Language and Politics in India and China: A Cross-Cultural Comparative Study

Author:: Daniel Komarzyca and Janina Fras
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This paper provides insights into the relationship between language and politically relevant aspects of culture in India and China which are as follows: attitude toward revolution and tradition, the domination of politics over religion or vice versa, and a concern for the liberty of the individual. The paper introduces a novel approach to the comparative study of civilizations by advancing the political-linguistic explanation. In so doing, it combines Hajime Nakamura’s hypothesis of the strict connection between language and culture (understood as a way of thinking) with Samuel P. Huntington’s emphasis on the impact of cultural differences on the political dimension of society – so that our explanatory model can be expressed as follows: language→culture→politics. As far as language is concerned, the focus is on the basic structure of Sanskrit and Chinese; besides, special attention is given to Indian and Chinese philosophies of language. Culturally, the most relevant schools of Hindu philosophy may be called “ultraconservative” since they tend to ground unchanging meaning firmly in metaphysics and rely on the supreme authority of ancient religious texts. In contrast, the Chinese typically considered language a social mechanism for shaping our behavior (so the relation of language and society is the most crucial); they also expressed clearly divergent views on naming. In short, at least four distinctive perspectives are essential: (1) conservative Confucianism, (2) anti-traditional and highly authoritarian Legalism, (3) egalitarian and linguistically skeptical Laozian Daoism, (4) nonconformist and proto-libertarian Zhuangzian Daoism.
Topic:: Politics, Culture, Philosophy, Language, and Identity
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

13053. China in the Geopolitical Imaginations of the Polish Pop Music after 1989

Author:: Jaroslaw Macala
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This paper focuses on the issue of geopolitics in the pop culture interpretation as illustrated by the Polish pop music after the year 1989. Songs selected from various trends of the Polish popular music made the source material of the text. The primary study method involved the analysis of the lyrics discourse. The Polish geopolitical imaginations used to revolve around the basis axis of better West and worse East, symbolized mainly by Russia, but its image was transferred over entire Asia. Asia, including China, was scarcely present in the geopolitical imaginations contained in the pop music, which, at the same time, reflected the irrelevant interest of Polish elites in global problems. The discourses in the musical texts about China frequently adopted the West’s perspective, where Poland made part of as seen by our elites. The rhetoric strategy concerning China in popular music featured two essential views, which references Orientalism as specified by E. Said. It explains the frequent use of the postcolonial discourse by the Polish elites, also the music ones, which promoted the supremacy of the West over the rest of the world and the universal nature of the Western world values which were meant to be implemented into other civilizations and nations for their own sake. China was presented as a growing threat for the dominance of the West, the USA in the first place, as an alternative model of globalization and international deal putting offthe world by its cultural and geopolitical alienation, as well as indicating negative effects for Poland
Topic:: Culture, Geopolitics, Music, and popular culture
Political Geography:: China and Asia

13054. Between Nation-Building and Contestation for Power: The Place of Party Politics in Nigeria, 1923-2019

Author:: Adetunji Ojo Ogunyemi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: By May 29, 2019, Nigeria’s Fourth Republic and democracy had achieved an unprecedented 20 unbroken years of active partisan politics and representative democracy. The First Republic had lasted barely three years (1963-1966); the Second Republic and its democratic institutions lasted just four years (1979-1983) while the Third Republic (19921993) could barely hold its head for one year. Hence, by mid-2019, not many analysts have congratulated Nigeria for its longest democratic experience since its independence from Britain in 1960, but hardly did any of them identify the core reasons for such a sustained rule of democratic ethos for two decades. In this paper, we show the origin and practice of political parties in Nigeria. We argue that the country had succeeded in its Fourth Republic as a democratic country because its law and constitution together with the political culture of the people had permitted multiparty democracy by which governments had been formed, political inclusion and popular participation ensured, and public policies initiated. We also present an analysis of party politicking in the country from its beginning in 1923 and conclude that Nigeria has achieved meaningful and sustainable dividends of democracy in her Fourth Republic because of a maturing culture of partisan politics.
Topic:: Nationalism, State Building, Party System, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

13055. Campaigns and Electioneering: Reflecting on the 2015 General Elections in Nigeria

Author:: Emmanuel Osewe Akubor
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Historically, campaigns are recognized as a vital part of electioneering since it contains the ideas that the candidate wants to share with the voters, especially regarding policy issues and the administration’s focus. It aims to get those who agree with their ideas to support them when running for a political position. The message often consists of several talking points about policy issues. However, a study of Nigeria’s situation, with specific reference to the 2015 Campaigns and Electioneering, revealed that the main content of campaigns was hate speeches. Therefore, this paper seeks to bring out the main issues of campaigns in Nigeria’s electoral system and why it has often led to electoral violence over the years. The qualitative method is used for this particular research. Data obtained from primary and secondary sources were deployed to carry out the study with an analytical and narrative historical approach. It includes historical, descriptive, and analytical approaches based on gathered evidence. This research’s primary source is based on field investigations conducted in the Nigerian area and surrounding territories. Among other things, the data collection process includes semi-structured interviews with selected individuals. The research also uses historical documents from the national archives, relying on previous research conducted on society, administrative development, and documentary data taken from newspaper accounts, diaries, letters, and verbal reports. This research’s position is that campaigns over the years in Nigeria, unlike what is obtainable in some parts of the world where policy issues form the backbone of campaign message have basically on persons, character assassination, violence, and abusive (hate) speeches. The paper argues that this campaign strategy often leads to electoral violence before, during, and after elections. The paper, therefore, concludes that only issue-based campaigns can guarantee peaceful and credible elections in Nigeria.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Campaigning
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

13056. Worsening Women Trafficking, Multidimensional Poverty and Gender Inequality: The Vulnerabilities, Playouts and Governmental Responses in West Africa

Author:: Tunde Abioro and Omolara Akinyemi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Modern governments in modern states in third world countries are overwhelmed with social circumstances that have forced citizens to resort to self-help. Also, prevalent unclear demographic and globalization issues are sometimes neutral lines of justification for either transit or destination posture of the West African states. Concisely, poverty issues have continuously permeated the West Africa region’s fabric, and the challenges seem protracting. It has implications for mobility, (women) trafficking, and human security, among others. The quantitative approach adopted profiled index while evaluating and descriptive methods explained the content. Among other findings, lack of national data and proper immigration service is obvious. Thus, adequate data for national planning is recommended. Further, ongoing regional and national initiatives for possible integration and collaboration to address challenges are advocated.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Poverty, Sex Trafficking, Governance, Inequality, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

13057. Indian and Australian Maritime Security Doctrines in the Indian Ocean Region in the 21st Century. Christian Bueger’s Matrix of Maritime Security Approach

Author:: Tomasz Lukaszuk
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article’s purpose is the multidimensional analysis of the evolution of Australia and India’s maritime policies and their impact on the endeavors to develop their maritime cooperation in the 21st century. Two research questions are to be answered in that connection: what changes and why India and Australia introduced to enhance their maritime security doctrines in the 21st century and why those changes contributed to the more in-depth cooperation in the second decade of the 21st century. The hypothesis based on those questions argues that not only the rise of China but also global processes in maritime affairs - such as the growing number of state and non-state actors, as well as the interdependence between the fields of human activities at sea - pushed the littorals like India and Australia to turn their maritime strength from coastal to oceanic and convinced them too to cooperate. That process was accompanied by the convergence of the security perceptions by both countries (India and Australia) and the mutual understanding of common interests in all the elements of modern maritime security. The Christian Bueger’s matrix serves as an explanatory framework to highlight the dynamics and broader context of the changes in India and Australia’s maritime security doctrines in the 21st century. It provides the conceptual framework for explaining closer cooperation between these two countries. The article analyzes India and Australia’s maritime strategies, focusing on four variables from Bueger’s matrix: national security, economic development, marine environment, and human security. In those dependent variables, particular elements of their activities serving as sub-variables are highlighted: in national security - shaping the seapower; in economic development - Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing; in the marine environment - climate change mitigation; in human security - the fight against piracy and human trafficking. The choice of the mentioned elements is justified by their role in Australia and India’s activities within maritime strategies and their influence on other elements of the maritime security matrix. The article starts with a description of Bueger’s matrix in the context of the evolution of the maritime security concept in international relations. The second part outlines the centrality of the Indian Ocean in Indian and Australian modern military and economic security. The third part explores and explains the roots of Indian maritime security thinking, and the fourth investigates the evolution in Australia’s attitude toward maritime affairs. The final part presents the developments in Indo-Australian bilateral cooperation in the 21st century.
Topic:: Security, Environment, Maritime, and Oceans and Seas
Political Geography:: Australia

13058. Institutional Responsibility for Mass Atrocity Crimes with Thomas Pogge

Author:: Jed Lea-Henry
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Humanitarian intervention and the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) are currently limited and encumbered by a pervasive absence of a political will. In states’ calculations, political considerations are constantly winning-out over the moral considerations of saving at-risk segments of our planet. While institutional and legal reforms undoubtedly play a role in addressing this challenge, such reforms and structures have existed for generations now, and have largely failed to bridge this gap from ‘moral necessity to political action’. What has been lacking is a moral understanding of humanitarian crises that is capable of reliably motivating the international community to undertake remedying actions, rather than merely expressions of concern. Such a moral foundation is achievable through institutional cosmopolitanism, an understanding of humanitarian intervention as satisfactions of our negative duties, and specifically the work of Thomas Pogge.
Topic:: Genocide, Human Rights, Atrocities, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13059. The Battle of Brexit. Analysis of the 2019 United Kingdom General Election Results

Author:: Bartłomiej H. Toszek
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article presents the main parties (i.e. the Conservative Party, Labor Party, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party) results of the 2019 UK general election as well as an analysis of the most important issues (i.e. correct identification of voters’ expectations, simplicity and clarity of the messages, leaders’ personalities) which determined each party success or loss. The author proves that since Brexit was the primary focus of voters, the level of support for particular parties remained dependent on the solutions presented in this issue. This basis explains why the Conservatives in the whole UK and the SNP in Scotland won (and the Labor Party and the Liberal Democrats lost) the battle of Brexit.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Nativism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

13060. The Issue of Ideological Changes in the Context of the Polish Political Parties - Theoretical Models and Their Exemplifications

Author:: Michal Niebylski
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article aims to present and discuss five theoretical models explaining the issue of ideological changes in Polish political parties. The paper is to shed light on an ideology’s dynamic nature and the process of building ideology in the political parties’ environment. The article features a discussion on the circumstances favoring the implementation of ideological changes and the methods used by parties to implement changes in their ideologies. The paper adopts two research hypotheses: 1) party ideologies are developed and modified by political parties in response to the changing (social, political, economic) circumstances in the inter-party rivalry. 2) The process of ideological changes serves political parties to lead an effective inter-party rivalry. The paper establishes that the factors with scientifically documented impact on party behavior in ideological terms are as follows: electoral result (parties that achieved a result below their expectations are more eager to revise their ideologies), political competition’s activity (parties react to ideological changes of their direct rivals), electorate preferences (political forces can change their approach in crucial issues to reflect the dominant views in their electorates) and acceptance of free-market principles by the main political actors. An analysis of Polish parties’ behaviors and the gathered source material also demonstrates that the parties’ inclination to implement ideological changes depends on organizational factors.
Topic:: Politics, Ideology, Models, and Party System
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

13061. Autarchy of Political Science and the Methodological Functions of Object Knowledge. Epistemological Analysis

Author:: Michal R. Wesierski
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Applying external scientific knowledge - i.e. knowledge achieved in the field of disciplines and sub-disciplines related to political science - in fulfiling such methodological functions as explanation and prevision (forecasting) is frequently approached in meta-scientific and meta-theoretical considerations as conducted on the ground of the family of scientific disciplines constituted by the sciences of politics. These functions can be ascribed to the purely epistemological aspect of scientific activity, not its institutional and organizational aspects. The dispute regarding the explanatory autonomy of political science is fallacious. From the logical and methodological point of view, the institutional “affiliation” of object knowledge, which constitutes a premise in complex inferences, does not play a role in the fulfilment of the assumed cognitive tasks; what is important instead is its epistemological credibility, as well as the goals of the research strategy selected by a given scholar.
Topic:: Research, Political Science, Academia, and Methods
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13062. Restrictions of Freedom of Press as an Indicator of Neo-Militant Democracy in Lithuania

Author:: Kamila Rezmer-Płotka
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: For the first time, Karl Loewenstein had used the category of militant democracy concerning the Weimar Republic. Although the world’s situation has changed, the process of political systems taking over non-democratic regimes’ characteristics is still visible. Among the indicators that can testify to becoming militant democracy, the restriction of freedom of the press is distinguished. This article attempts to analyze the dynamics of this process in Lithuania based on the Freedom House reports. The research question formulated is: What restrictions on the press’s freedom in Lithuania occurred in the period? The hypothesis is: In 2008-2019 in Lithuania, there has been a regular restriction on the freedom of the press, which may indicate a progressive process of militant democracy. Results: The hypothesis has been partially verified positively. During the period considered, there were regular restrictions on the freedom of the press but were justified mainly by circumstances, or immediate counter-action was taken.
Topic:: Democracy, Repression, Freedom of Press, and Militant Democracy
Political Geography:: Europe and Lithuania

13063. The Election Official’s Handbook: Six steps local officials can take to safeguard America’s election systems

Author:: David Levine
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Intelligence and law enforcement agencies warn that Russia, China, Iran, and other foreign actors will seek to interfere in the 2020 presidential election.1 Foreign actors are increasingly sophisticated at using cyber tools and social media to probe and penetrate electoral infrastructure, manipulate public opinion, and cast doubt on the integrity of the election process. On one hand, the United States is better prepared to address these threats now than during the 2016 presidential election. For example, after the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) designated election systems as critical infrastructure in 2017, it established the Elections Infrastructure Information Sharing and Analysis Center, which enabled states and localities to more easily share information about threats to elections. This mechanism has had the additional benefit of making DHS better at helping states manage risks, as well as distributing information from the federal government to the states about possible threats.2 On the other hand, in many states there are still vulnerabilities in election infrastructure that foreign actors can exploit. These vulnerabilities exist at almost every step of the election administration process, including registering voters, verifying their registration at polling places, securing the devices that capture and tally the vote, transmitting that data to a central location on election night, and executing an accurate recount.3 While states usually make decisions about the rules of elections (policymaking),4 localities are typically responsible for the “nuts and bolts” of running an election — such as finding polling places and recruiting poll workers.5 Local election officials also help preserve the integrity of America’s elections by protecting against hacks into voter rolls and local election websites and working closely with federal and state officials to ensure the security of their voting systems.6 As the February 3, 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses demonstrated, such vulnerabilities are not merely theoretical. During the caucuses — which were administered by political party officials, not election officials — the new app that the Iowa Democratic Party planned to use to report its caucus results did not work. Many of the nearly 1,700 precinct chairs who were responsible for transmitting the results did not receive training on how to use the app, and a large number appear to have been unable to successfully download it.7 Revisions and updates to the app were made as late as two days before the caucuses, making it nearly impossible to vet and test adequately.8 Although the federal government recently agreed to allocate an additional $425 million in election administration and security funds to state election offices,9 federal resources will likely be insufficient to address all outstanding vulnerabilities before the 2020 presidential election. It is also unclear how much of this funding will be distributed to local elections officials in time for the 2020 presidential election. This handbook, therefore, provides a list of steps that local election officials can implement at relatively little cost to fortify their elections systems before the 2020 presidential election.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iran, North America, and United States of America

13064. Conceptualizing Foreign Interference in Europe

Author:: Kristine Berzina and Etienne Soula
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Europe has been at the forefront of confronting asymmetric attacks from foreign adversaries. Disinformation campaigns have been used against the European public since the Soviet era, and with the advent of social media platforms, they have become a regular phenomenon across the continent. Cyber-attacks have become a frequent occurrence too, particularly since 2007, when Russia conducted a campaign of cyber-attacks on Estonia.1 Even so, it was the 2016 U.S. presidential election that accelerated European measures against interference in democracies. National governments across Europe have launched holistic efforts to counter interference. In 2018, France announced the Paris Call for Trust and Security in Cyberspace, which calls for cooperation to “prevent malign interference by foreign actors.”2 Over one thousand national and local governments, civil society, and industry groups have signed on, and multi-stakeholder communities have formed to advance the principles laid out in the Paris Call. Sweden is applying the concept of “total defense” to educate and protect its population. Sweden’s Civil Contingencies Agency sent a booklet to all households in 2018 with guidelines on how citizens should protect themselves from false information and cyber-attacks as well as many other threats.3 Finland and Latvia are applying the same “total defense” strategy in their own political systems. Increasingly, European Union institutions are also turning their attention to interference. The newly elected European Parliament passed a resolution in October denouncing foreign electoral interference and disinformation in national and European democratic processes.4 And European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has given her commissioners a mandate to protect democratic systems and institutions from “external interference.”5 Amid this burgeoning activity, however, one thing is missing. There is little consensus on what exactly “interference” is, and how the term “interference” is similar or different from other related concepts, such as “influence.” The lack of a common framing of “interference” across Europe can delay or complicate lawmakers’ initiatives and muddy civil society’s efforts to build awareness and rally opposition against incursions into democratic processes. Defining interference comes with risk. Policymakers can create a definition that is either too broad,6 which could inhibit the freedom of expression or put undue burdens on political participation, or one that is too narrow to cover certain forms of malign behavior in a quickly evolving field, inhibiting democracies from protecting themselves because an attack does not “fit” within said definition. Establishing a definition that merely catalogues commonly-used tactics (for example: cyber-attacks, disinformation, economic coercion, and malign finance) would also prove inadequate because any definition of interference should be flexible enough to capture new technologies and approaches. Moreover, a list of tactics fails to explain the underlying factors driving interference activities. To contribute to the definition-setting debate, this paper addresses why a definition could be helpful for countering interference, lays out the state of play in the EU on defining interference, provides a review of existing government and academic definitions related to interference, and discusses the concept of legality and interference. Finally, this paper suggests two core criteria to assist in the determination of whether any given activity constitutes interference: (i) intent (including the factors of timing, coordination of behavior, and scale of effects), and (ii) transparency. An act does not need to match both criteria to constitute interference, but they are certainly mutually reinforcing.
Topic:: European Union, Foreign Interference, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

13065. Friends and Enemies: A Framework for Understanding Chinese Political Interference in Democratic Countries

Author:: Matt Schrader
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: “For our friends, we produce fine wine. Jackals, we welcome with shotguns.” – Ambassador Gui Congyou, 2019 This was how a Chinese ambassador warned Sweden of potential consequences after Stockholm decided to honor a Swedish citizen imprisoned in China with a human rights prize. Ambassador Gui Congyou’s turn of phrase has a long history; it is the final line of a famous 1950s propaganda anthem written to eulogize China’s bloody contest with the United States on the Korean Peninsula.2 Gui’s statement would be easy to dismiss as the words of a single ambassador, but his statement is consistent with two patterns in the Chinese Communist Party’s interactions with the outside world.3 The first is China’s growing global assertiveness under Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping. Prior to Xi’s ascent there were signs that China’s leadership had concluded it was time to put aside Deng Xiaoping’s mantra that China should “hide its brilliance and bide its time.”4 But since Xi came to power in late 2012, party officials have more frequently noted that China is a large, powerful country, and that smaller, less powerful countries oppose its interests at their own risk.5 The second and more enduring theme is the party’s tendency to divide the world into friends and enemies. Inside China, the party’s friends are those who “uphold the leadership of the [Communist Party] and the socialist cause” through support for its policy agenda.6 Outside China, the party’s friends are “foreigners of influence and/or power who assist China’s interests.”7 The party’s enemies are those who publicly question how it chooses to exercise power. The party has operationalized this mindset by developing a sophisticated set of tools and a well-defined body of doctrine to attempt to maintain unchallenged power by “uniting friends” and “isolating enemies.”8 This divide-and-conquer strategy is predicated not only on rewarding friends for their support, but also on coercing the party’s enemies. Within China, coercive tactics include: extralegal detention, limits on public and private speech by individual citizens, control of all forms of media and key sectors of the economy, and cooption of elites by establishing personal and professional costs for opposing the party. This report describes how the party has increasingly employed many of these domestic tools to unite foreign friends and isolate foreign enemies.9 Ambassador Gui’s remarks are but one example in an expanding universe of cases. The threat of losing business in China means that foreign corporations are routinely pressed to censor themselves and their employees to avoid topics the party considers sensitive. Meanwhile, Chinese companies have built and sold the party’s tools of digital authoritarianism in South America, Africa, Asia, and elsewhere. Chinese diplomats have also tried to rally other countries in support of greater governmental control over the flow of digital information inside national borders. In Southeast Asia, party-state linked actors have sought to covertly alter the outcome of elections throughout Southeast Asia, combining cyberespionage prowess with the financial firepower of the PRC’s enormous policy banks.10 And the party has used the same vision of triumphant ethnic solidarity it pushes on its own population to justify its attempts to threaten, censor, and co-opt the Chinese diaspora. In so doing, the party hopes to influence democratic politicians and politics by controlling the external narrative presented of China.
Topic:: Politics, Democracy, Foreign Interference, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

13066. Strong Yet Brittle: The Risks of Digital Authoritarianism

Author:: Katherine Mansted
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Authoritarian governments increasingly adopt technology-centric national strategies and methods of internal governance. They control their societies through digital censorship, propaganda, and surveillance, and use these same tools to manipulate foreign societies. Their leaders prioritize the development of cutting-edge technologies in pursuit of government efficiency and military and economic advantage. Some analysts view this turn to “digital authoritarianism” as an approach designed to make authoritarians more durable at home and powerful abroad. However, authoritarians adopt technology-centric strategies primarily due to their own insecurity. Digital authoritarianism is not so much a strategic choice, as it is a strategic necessity. In a globalized world, ideas and communications technologies are inherently threatening to authoritarian regimes, which must control both to ensure their survival. Authoritarians also increasingly depend on information technologies for economic growth and to build state capacity in areas where they have traditionally been at a comparative disadvantage to democracies. Ultimately, digital authoritarianism creates systemic risks for domestic governance and national security. In this sense, while digital authoritarianism has strengths, it will also become a regime’s Achilles’ Heel.
Topic:: Government, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Surveillance, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13067. Competitive Strategies for Democracy in the Age of AI

Author:: Andrew Imbrie
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: In a 1972 paper for the United States Air Force Project at RAND, the late Andrew Marshall defined what he called a more “efficient, effective U.S. competitive role.”1 His theory of the case was straightforward: The United States needed to sustain a long-term, strategic competition with the Soviet Union; the nature of that competition was poorly specified, but could be shaped in ways favorable to enduring U.S. advantages; and the United States should therefore assess the balance of strategic forces, clarify its goals, and develop competitive strategies to match its strengths against Soviet weaknesses. The competition between the United States and China today is different from and far more complex than the U.S.-Soviet competition during the Cold War, notably in the levels of economic interdependence and the role of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. China, Russia, and other authoritarian powers seek to achieve strategic advantage through AI-enabled capabilities and systems.2 By one estimate, more than 100 countries purchase surveillance and censorship gear from China and Russia, receive training on these technologies, or simply imitate methods of surveillance and censorship that are designed to control public opinion.3 As the digital and physical environments become intertwined, authoritarian practices in one domain will increasingly encroach upon the other. At stake are the core values of liberty, equality, and justice that underpin free and open societies. The novel coronavirus pandemic will accelerate these trends. Increased U.S.-China tensions, cascading economic crises, and renewed debates over the resilience of supply chains and the future of digital surveillance are all characteristics of a world that demands global cooperation but sorely lacks it. The fault lines between liberal democracies and illiberal, authoritarian regimes are widening at a time of growing turbulence in the international system. Even before the virus, U.S.-China relations faced a heightened risk of conflict. The years ahead are likely to bring greater turmoil, with AI and other emerging technologies at the center of an extended, continuing strategic competition among the major powers. In the long-term contest between the forces of democracy and autocracy, the United States should apply Marshall’s counsel and develop more competitive strategies that play to its strengths. The right U.S. approach starts with its broad network of allies and partners. America has formed security guarantees with 52 countries in Europe, Asia, and Latin America, compared with Russia’s five (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan) and China’s one (North Korea).4 The United States benefits from allies that share its values and produce strategic resources in AI, including computer and data science experts; private sectors that are innovative, dominant, and trend-setting; large and diverse pools data on which to train algorithms; governmental research and development (R&D) investments; diplomatic support for initiatives in AI safety and governance; and the clout needed to export norms and best practices internationally. In a world of globalized markets for AI talent and integrated supply chains, an alliance-centric strategy provides a competitive advantage over any single country that attempts to develop a robust AI ecosystem on its own. A competitive strategy in AI will require the United States and its allies to assess their comparative advantages; identify anomalies and patterns in the strategic choices of authoritarian competitors that are deeply rooted; and match relative strengths against specific areas of weakness.5 This paper focuses on the dynamics between the United States and China in AI. Based on an initial assessment of recent advances and long-term potential, it recommends that democratic nations sharpen their edge in five key areas: Hardware edge: exploit hardware chokepoints, leveraging the advantages that democratic nations have in the production of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and advanced AI chips. Data edge: develop common standards to share, pool, and store non-sensitive data sets around discrete projects, such as health intelligence and biosecurity, predictive maintenance, and maritime domain awareness; invest in privacy-preserving machine learning; and support research into new techniques for making personal data less relevant to AI systems, such as one-shot learning and advanced simulations. Talent edge: develop inter-allied human capital in AI, share best practices, and cultivate democratic networks of AI researchers through exchange programs, joint scholarships, and conference support, while ensuring research security among allies and partners. Innovation edge: harness the estimated two-thirds of global R&D that is conducted by democratic nations to foster collaboration in specific areas of promise, such as human-machine teaming methods and verification techniques for complex controls systems and AI-enabled, safety-critical infrastructure. Rule-setting edge: shape global norms and standards for AI, reflecting and supporting human rights and liberal values; create the conditions for a common AI market among democratic nations; and extend the benefits of AI to fragile democracies by establishing a multilateral digital infrastructure network.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

13068. Masks Off: Chinese Coronavirus Assistance in Europe

Author:: Etienne Soula
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: As the coronavirus crisis spread across Europe in March, several countries found themselves desperately short of masks, respirators, test kits, and even healthcare staff as they struggled to contain outbreaks. With the EU and the United States initially slow to respond, China stepped into the vacuum. This paper looks at prominent Chinese coronavirus-related donations to Europe between March 12 and April 20, 2020, as well as at the Chinese media coverage and narratives that accompanied them. The prominence of donations was assessed using open-source data on donations from the Chinese authorities or from Fortune 500 or similarly large Chinese companies to European national governments, sister cities, and individual clinics and institutions. Assistance came in many forms and included financial support for the procurement of personal protective equipment, the dispatch of Chinese doctors, free access to cloud-based coronavirus diagnostic tools, and donations of testing kits and ventilators. Three points emerge from this analysis. First, Chinese assistance stretched well beyond the high-profile cases of hard-hit Italy and Spain to countries large and small. During the five-weeks period studied, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and large Chinese companies made 70 prominent donations to 27 countries across Europe. The numbers and distribution of prominent donations of coronavirus-related assistance paint a picture of Beijing’s widespread “mask diplomacy” in which countries’ needs alone were not strictly reflected in the help they received. Coronavirus infection rates alone do not fully explain the variance in Chinese assistance, suggesting that alleviating the health crisis may have been only one of many purposes behind the CCP’s decisions. Second, the donations by Chinese authorities and companies coincided with China’s national and economic interests. China’s state apparatus at the state, province, and city levels made donations, but the majority of prominent ones were from the Chinese private sector and foundations connected to it. However, with the CCP exercising an ever-growing level of control over the private sector, the distinction between public and private donations is not clear-cut and Beijing typically trumpeted both as evidence of its generosity. The perception-shaping potential of the donations is likely to have been one of the main drivers behind Chinese coronavirus assistance in Europe. Finally, Chinese donations were accompanied by a sustained communications and diplomatic push aimed at a global audience. The vast majority of the coronavirus assistance to Europe was promoted via all available channels. On state media, embassy websites, and social-media platforms, the authorities used the Chinese donations to Europe to deliver the CCP’s story. The positive messaging was also a way to pivot discourse about the pandemic away from its own failures in the early months of the outbreak. In parallel to the “shared future for mankind” narratives promoted by embassies every time donated medical supplies arrived in Europe, the CCP also showed a harder edge during the pandemic, much to the irritation of many European countries. Furthermore, since the period covered by this paper, Beijing has been doubling down on its newly assertive public diplomacy in Europe and beyond.
Topic:: Pandemic, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

13069. Looking Back to Go Forward: Strategic Mismanagement of Platform Technologies and the Race for the Future

Author:: Christopher Kirchhoff
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: One morning in 2016, staffers from the National Security Council and the Office of the U.S. Chief Technology Officer boarded a black van outside the West Wing. They were on a field trip to the State Department led by U.S. CTO Megan Smith. Smith, a technology visionary and former Google vice president, once worked at General Magic, the Silicon Valley firm that in the early 1990s first brought together the component technologies of the smartphone. Apple later productized General Magic’s innovations in the 2007 release of the iPhone, which brought the power of computing and reach of the Internet into the palm of our hand, revolutionizing how we live and work and laying the foundation for industries of the future, including today’s “Internet of Things,” which by 2020 comprised 31 billion devices worldwide. The White House staffers Smith led on their field trip were on their way to visit the Global Engagement Center, or GEC, in State Department parlance, a new unit created to help fight the influence war against the Islamic State. While smartphones powered the American economy to new heights as the introduction of 4G became widespread, this same set of technologies was being used by ISIS to establish a modern-day caliphate across Syria and Iraq. Slick ISIS social media posts drew thousands of recruits into its ranks, leading the State Department to counterattack with its own campaign of online messaging. It was a digital war that was a part of a physical war, with the GEC as the nerve center of the United States’ response in the virtual domain. The GEC’s mission was to monitor social media worldwide and organize a U.S. information counter-offensive to push back against ISIS’s outlandish claims post by post, tweet by tweet, person by person, depriving the terrorist group of the myths it used to draw new adherents. It took all of ten minutes for the NSC-CTO group to realize the GEC would not be joining the pantheon of U.S. government technology success stories. Megan Smith quickly identified flaws in metrics the GEC used to track its social media engagement and was astonished to learn GEC’s central monitoring dashboard was not updated in real time, a core practice of any U.S. social media or internet firm. The State Department had broadcast its ambitions to bring the skill of Google, Facebook, and Twitter to bear in the fight against ISIS. Yet it never resourced the GEC on anything of the scale that would have been needed to achieve this mission. Then there were outdated privacy laws that did not permit the State Department to track public social media handles of U.S. citizens, the inability of the Department to contract with top vendors in technology, and an overall lack of relevant expertise on the GEC’s staff. The nation that invented the Internet, the smartphone, and social media seemed powerless in 2016 to mobilize these same tools within its own government against a barbaric adversary that had hijacked them for violent ends. Fifteen years after 9/11 kicked off a transformation of homeland and national security agencies to defeat Islamic terrorists, the State department was unable to leverage a U.S. platform technology to advance a top foreign policy objective. It was ultimately the U.S. bombing campaign and Kurdish paramilitaries that brought ISIS to heel, with GEC counter-narratives barely denting ISIS’s social media mobilization. As the GEC worked its way into a historical footnote, a far more consequential battle for platform technology was underway in the global adoption of 5G technology. By 2020, China had deployed 15 times the number of 5G base stations as the United States. Unlike the GEC, which was merely an illustration of the U.S. government’s inability to use a key platform technology for its own ends, the contest over 5G involved billions of dollars in a worldwide race for the future of the global telecommunications market. Though U.S. firms pioneered the development and deployment of 4G technologies, China is on track to capture dominant global market share in 5G hardware and applications. As former Google CEO Eric Schmidt notes, 5G stands to be the first “platform technology” race the United States will lose to China, creating a structural deficit in U.S. economic competitive- ness that in a worst-case scenario could tip overall innovation leadership globally in the set of future industries 5G will enable. While the causes of the 5G failure are many, the original sin is how the U.S. government allocates spectrum be- tween civilian and military uses. With few incentives to optimize allocation across the civilian spectrum managed by the Federal Communication Commission and the federal spectrum managed by the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), U.S. technology companies were relegated to developing 5G on an inferior band in which signal travels a shorter distance. China and the rest of the world did not make this same mistake. As a result, both U.S. telcos and the U.S. military are on track to be left behind by the global adoption of mid-band spectrum as the dominant 5G wavelength. It was as if the government mandated Betamax in the VCR wars of the 1980s even as its experts knew VHS was the superior technology—an error of strategy that locked U.S. firms into second place before competition began in global markets.
Topic:: Science and Technology, 5G, and Mismanagement
Political Geography:: United States of America

13070. Five Authoritarian Pandemic Messaging Frames and How to Respond

Author:: Naďa Kovalčíková and Ariane Tabatabai
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: As the coronavirus pandemic has spread around the world, authoritarian actors have engaged in robust information-manipulation campaigns. China—where the virus originated and spread due to the government’s initial cover up and mismanagement—became the champion of these efforts. Iran and, to a lesser extent, Russia, followed its lead, seeking to shift the global conversation from China’s and their own failures to confront the disease head on. They have also tried to place the blame to the United States and Europe, portraying these democracies’ responses as inadequate and highlighting their shortcomings. Their efforts have contributed to a coronavirus infodemic, which the World Health Organization has defined as “an over-abundance of information – some accurate and some not – that makes it hard for people to find trustworthy sources and reliable guidance when they need it.” This infodemic has fueled the ongoing public-health crisis by further undermining trust in democratic institutions, the independent press, and facts and data. The coronavirus infodemic is likely to continue to evolve, given that the fight against the pandemic is far from over, but its contours have already been drawn, making it possible to assess the information-manipulation efforts undertaken by malign actors during the last months. Understanding how and why they have engaged in information manipulation leads to an initial set of recommendations on how to contain the infodemic as well as how to prevent similar efforts that could stymie responses to future public-health pandemics. We identify five messaging frames used by China, Russia, and Iran in the first six months of the pandemic with implications for public health, democracy and governance, and transatlantic relations and offer recommendations to address them. Every crisis goes through several stages, and it is necessary to detect and monitor evolving tactics and frames used by malign actors in the globalizing information space early on. By doing so, democracies can ensure a more effective mitigation, robust preparedness, rapid response, and as painless a recovery as possible when facing public-health emergencies or potential economic, security, or environmental crises.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Misinformation
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

13071. Covert Foreign Money: Financial Loopholes Exploited by Authoritarians to Fund Political Interference in Democracies

Author:: Josh Rudolph and Thomas Morley
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: In addition to more widely studied tools like cyberattacks and disinformation, authoritarian regimes such as Russia and China have spent more than $300 million interfering in democratic processes more than 100 times spanning 33 countries over the past decade. The frequency of these financial attacks has accelerated aggressively from two or three annually before 2014 to 15 to 30 in each year since 2016. We call this tool of foreign interference “malign finance,” defined as “the funding of foreign political parties, candidates, campaigns, well-connected elites, or politically influential groups, often through non-transparent structures designed to obfuscate ties to a nation state or its proxies.” A typical case involves a regime-connected operative funneling $1 million to a favored political party, although buying influence in a major national election costs more like $3 million to $15 million. Rather than start our analysis by focusing on any given policy area, we review open-source reporting in 16 languages to identify malign finance cases credibly attributed to foreign governments. Finding that approximately 83 percent of the activity was enabled by legal loopholes, we catalogue the resulting caseload into the seven most exploited policy gaps. Broader than just money flowing through straw donors, shell companies, non-profits, and other conduits, malign finance includes a range of support mechanisms innovated by authoritarian regimes to interfere in democracies, from intangible gifts to media assistance. As such, policy strategies to address these vulnerabilities are not limited to campaign finance reforms, but also include greater transparency requirements around media funding, corporate ownership, campaign contacts with foreign powers, and other issues. In addition to identifying loopholes, our case study informs the scope of our recommended policy solutions, which are meant close off channels for foreign financial interference without infringing upon the speech rights of domestic political spenders or jeopardizing bipartisan support. Each of our recommendations balances these trade-offs differently based on empirical, legal, political, and administrative considerations vetted in consultation with more than 90 current and former executive branch officials, Congressional staffers from both parties, constitutional law scholars, and civil society experts. This report is organized around each of the seven U.S. legal loopholes that need to be closed, starting with the most urgent priorities, plus an eighth chapter on the need for stronger governmental coordination.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Finance, Foreign Interference, and Dark Money
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

13072. Iran’s Authoritarian Playbook: The Tactics, Doctrine, and Objectives behind Iran’s Influence Operations

Author:: Ariane Tabatabai
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: According to a 2013 indictment by the U.S. Department of Justice, hackers backed by a foreign power gained access to the controls of the Bowman Avenue Dam, a small dam in the New York City suburb of Rye, New York. Cyberattacks on infrastructure have long been a concern in the United States: Russia has targeted the U.S. power grid and other critical infrastructure in the past—at times successfully.1 Hackers backed by the People’s Republic of China have targeted U.S. utilities companies.2 However, neither of these strategic adversaries was behind this bold foray into U.S. suburbia: the culprit, according to the indictment, was the Islamic Republic of Iran.3 Over the past decade, Iran has emerged as an important national security challenge for the United States. A novel part of the regime’s effort—facilitated by the advent of the information age and new technology—is its development of a playbook and toolkit designed to undermine the United States at home just as, in the eyes of Tehran, Washington does in Iran. This makes the current Iranian challenge more subtle and nuanced than has been the case for most of the Islamic Republic’s existence. Iran has gradually expanded its capabilities to compete against the United States for influence within the region, and it is now also taking this competition into the United States and even Europe. One hundred days before the 2020 U.S. elections, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence put a fine point on this threat when National Counterintelligence and Security Center Director William Evanina released a statement noting that, “at this time, we’re primarily concerned with China, Russia and Iran,” who are all looking to “use influence measures in social and traditional media in an effort to sway U.S. voters’ preferences and perspectives, to shift U.S. policies, to increase discord and to undermine confidence in our democratic process.”4 The statement characterized the Iranian threat as follows: “Iran seeks to undermine U.S. democratic institutions and divide the country in advance of the elections. Iran’s efforts center around online influence, such as spreading disinformation on social media and recirculating anti-U.S. content.”5 The Islamic Republic’s authoritarian toolkit is unlikely to become as sophisticated as that of China or Russia in the near-term. After all, Iran’s economy is in shambles, its capacity restrained, and the model of society and governance it tries to offer profoundly limited in its appeal. And even the flagship tool used by Iran to interfere in democracies, namely its online influence operations, continues to suffer from such basic shortcomings as misspelled names, the repeated use of the same tactics and techniques, and a lack of proper research into the target and familiarity with its behavior.6 However, a perceived existential threat posed by the United States, an inability to match the conventional capabilities of the United States and its allies, and a strong desire to compete with the same, have encouraged Iran to double down on efforts to develop a set of asymmetric tools allowing it to overcome its shortcomings. In this sense, Iran is not dissimilar to Russia. “Authoritarian learning” (including partnerships with both Beijing and Moscow) has likely helped Tehran to overcome challenges and to develop its toolkit quickly and effectively. The result is that Iran is becoming a significant authoritarian actor challenging democracy in the United States and Europe. Tehran’s influence operations span traditional and digital media. The regime has built a sprawling web of traditional media outlets, as well as networks of accounts on all major social media platforms (even as it bans and limits access to these websites at home), allowing it to reach millions of users abroad. The content Iran creates, distributes, and amplifies is multilingual and seeks to adapt to democracies’ social, cultural, and political contexts—with fairly mixed results. Among the objectives of Iran’s information manipulation efforts are sowing tensions in democracies, dividing democratic nations internally and from each other, and alleging hypocrisy in democratic states’ foreign policies, undermining democratization in Iran and elsewhere. Iranian hackers routinely target U.S. persons, academic institutions, companies, non-profit organizations, and government agencies and departments. And Iran’s illicit finance schemes are considerable; although, they are currently focused on sanctions evasion and support of information operations, rather than used as a standalone vector to undermine democracies. Some of these tools and the tactics used by Iran are similar to those employed by both Russia and China—and both Beijing and Moscow have lent Tehran a hand in developing some of its capabilities,7 particularly in the realm of information manipulation. Iranian, Russian, and Chinese state media and associated social media accounts echo and amplify each other’s messaging. But there are also some differences in how Tehran deploys these tactics. This is in part due to differences in the political culture and structure of the country, the Islamic Republic’s own ideology and worldview, and the country’s status in the international system. Another significant set of differences arises from Iran’s shortcomings vis-à-vis both its adversaries (including the United States) and its authoritarian partners in Russia and China. For example, Russia and China can leverage their vast nuclear arsenal and enormous economic weight, respectively, to compete directly with the United States. Iran is ill-equipped to compete with the United States in either of those domains and, as such, sees this set of tools and efforts to undermine democracy as a means to elevate its level of competition rather than an end in itself. Hence, Tehran’s toolkit is more limited than those of Beijing or Moscow, leading the Islamic Republic to be more deliberate and selective in the programs it develops and, perhaps, more forceful in how it deploys them. As a result, though Iran’s growing efforts to undermine democracy should not be ignored and should be addressed adequately, for now, the Islamic Republic remains a lesser threat than China and Russia. This report tries to make sense of these activities and provide a framework for understanding Iran’s intentions and capabilities. It provides one of the first comprehensive discussions of Iran’s authoritarian toolkit, doctrine, and objectives. It must be noted that unlike other key Iranian initiatives—such as its nuclear program, missile activities, support for non-state actors, and regional interventions—Iran’s authoritarian toolkit remains scarcely studied in the academic literature. Understanding Tehran’s objectives in undermining democracy and the means it leverages to do so is important for a few reasons. First, Iranian activities over the past few years have shown that the regime is increasingly active in this space. And as Iran’s objectives and the tools it employs are different from those of other key malign actors, understanding their strengths and weaknesses and developing specific responses to them is a worthy exercise. Second, authoritarians learn from each other, and observing the Iranian case allows us to better identify the trends and comprehend the ways in which less powerful malign actors (as opposed to Russia and China, for example) may engage in similar activities designed to undermine democracy.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Cybersecurity, Foreign Interference, Cyberspace, and Influence
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Global Focus

13073. Prospects for European and U.S. Policy toward Iran

Author:: Ariane Tabatabai and Edgar P. Tam
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: President Donald Trump’s views on Iran have centered on dismantling the landmark nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was agreed in 2015. He made it clear early on that he believed he could negotiate a better deal with Iran that would not compromise the interests of the United States as much and that would also address far more issues of concern to its partners in the Middle East. However, to date the Trump administration has not come any closer to achieving this goal. Instead, the United States and Iran have come close to war. Although European countries share objectives on Iran with the United States—for instance, limiting Iran’s ballistic-missile activities and seeking its return to compliance with its nuclear commitments under the JCPOA—they disagree strongly with President Trump’s approach to achieving these. His approach has made Washington the proverbial bull in a china shop for U.S allies in Europe, forcing them to put on hold long-desired objectives such as expanding economic ties with Iran and bringing it closer into a community of responsible stakeholders. Therefore, the result of the U.S. presidential election will have a significant impact on Europe’s relations with the United States when it comes to dealing with Iran. There are several ways in which a Trump reelection could affect Europe’s calculations. A second Trump administration that maintains a hard-line policy toward Iran would lead Europe to double down on encouraging Iran to negotiate by offering incentives as a demonstration of its good faith to Washington. Alternatively, no longer having to think about his reelection, Trump may pursue a less hard-line approach to secure negotiations, thus solidifying his presidential legacy. Germany and France in particular might seek additional leverage to temper and perhaps even counter Trump’s hard-line Iran policy to limit what they view as the damage caused by his administration. For its part, the United Kingdom may align more with the United States, causing a rupture in European unity. However, a “hybrid” scenario is most likely, in which Europe would continue its attempts to be perceived as independent while seeking a greater role in leading a quiet international effort to get Iran back in compliance with the JCPOA and at the negotiating table. If Joe Biden becomes president, he would return the United States to the JCPOA if Iran returned to compliance—which Europe also wants—while trying to negotiate additional commitments from Tehran on other areas of concern, such as missile testing and U.S. hostages. If this plan is complicated by the Trump administration’s pursuit of a unilateral sanctions snapback before it leaves office, however, a Biden administration may find itself facing a scenario in which there is no JCPOA to rejoin. This could be further complicated by a withdrawal by Iran from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which it has threatened to do. Even if there is a change in U.S. administration, European countries would still have to overcome differences among themselves on many aspects of Iran policy. A post-Brexit Europe may see the United Kingdom more aligned with U.S. objectives than European ones and acting more as an occasional “+1” to a remaining E2 of France and Germany. European countries also disagree on how to approach Iran’s malign activities, such as terrorism—with Germany having outlawed all of Hezbollah’s activities while the United Kingdom, France, and other European countries distinguish between the organization’s ostensibly political arm and its militant wing. These intra-European divisions, despite the European Union trying to establish a united front, make it easier for Iran’s propaganda efforts to sow division among European countries and in the transatlantic relationship.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, and United States of America

13074. October Surprise: Simulating a Foreign Interference Crisis on the Eve of the 2020 Election

Author:: Nathan Kohlenberg
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The United States, like many other democracies, faces concerted and sophisticated operations aimed at disrupting, delegitimizing, and in some cases altering the outcomes of its elections. While foreign interference operations are not bound by election cycles, elections constitute a unique window of increased vulnerability. To better understand how well U.S. institutions have adapted since the 2016 election, the Alliance for Securing Democracy conducted a table-top exercise to assess potential gaps in policies and practices by government, social media platforms, and campaigns. The exercise also considered the options, challenges, and trade-offs that politicians, policymakers, and corporate officers might face in the days leading up to the 2020 election. The exercise was conducted virtually in July 2020 with a bipartisan group of 14 experts representing senior government, political organizing, and technology industry leaders. The results were clear: information sharing stalled, lines of communication were lacking, and distrust was rampant. Parochial interests and the mitigation of personal and organizational risk often took priority over national interests. Meanwhile, many leaders struggled to gather the information they needed to commit to a course of action. Although a simulation can never capture the complexity of the systems and relationships it aims to approximate, this exercise underscores that there is work to be done to improve resilience in all three sectors analyzed: the U.S. government, professional politics, and the technology sector. Many shortcomings were immediately apparent to the experts who participated, while others became evident in the after-action analysis. Working with the participants and other experts on election interference, we have summarized in this report a number of lessons learned from the exercise in order to spotlight recent progress and remaining challenges. Our simulation strongly suggested that current policies and structures are insufficient to facilitate the cooperation between stakeholders that would be necessary to mitigate a sophisticated information operation targeting the election. In particular, our participants concluded that response mechanisms remained troublingly dependent on the personal integrity of decisionmakers in Washington and Silicon Valley, and current government and social media policies are insufficiently precise and unambiguous to provide clear guidance in many situations, especially as relate to privacy and First Amendment concerns. Nevertheless, the particular course of the exercise and approaches taken by the participants also shed light on what can be done to build greater responsiveness into the range of public and private institutions responsible for ensuring the integrity of our elections.
Topic:: National Security, Politics, Elections, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: United States of America

13075. Leaks, Lies, and Altered Tape: Russia’s Maturing Information Manipulation Playbook

Author:: Jessica Brandt and Amber Frankland
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: In 2016 the Russian government and its proxies interfered in the U.S. presidential election in a “sweeping and systematic” fashion. Thanks to multiple bipartisan investigations and the work of researchers and journalists, rich detail about that operation—and the tools Russia’s disinformation agents used to execute it—are available to the public. In 2020 Americans are again preparing to elect a president. As the U.S. intelligence community assessed, and FBI Director Christopher Wray confirmed in recent testimony before Congress, Russia is conducting a “very active” interference campaign. Since 2016, Russia’s interference activity in the United States, and elsewhere around the world, has not abated. That’s because elections are a flashpoint for Russian information operations, but not the start or endpoint of this activity, which targets a broad range of polarizing or contentious political events. Over the past four years, the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) the Russian government and its proxies use to manipulate information and carry out deceptive campaigns have matured. These include: Co-opting authentic domestic voices and institutions, often by co-locating trolls within a target population, renting social media accounts of local actors, entrapping local leaders in “interviews” with purported journalists, recruiting real activists to foment protests, or mimicking or appropriating the names of local groups; Exploiting the anticipation of manipulation to claim that manipulation has occurred, often through false flag operations, or the amplification of homegrown conspiracy theories; Practicing tailored influence, by working through micro-influencers and in closed groups; Exploiting the full information ecosystem to launder a narrative, by seeding it with authentic domestic actors, deploying quasi-transparent Russian-supported media properties, and exploiting data voids. Broadly speaking, we are witnessing a marked shift toward harder to detect, more targeted information operations that cover greater swaths of the information ecosystem, likely carried out by Russian military intelligence. That is a very different challenge than the one policymakers faced in 2016, when the threat was not yet fully comprehended, and in 2018, when the threat appeared to be largely driven by Internet Research Agency (IRA) trolls. While it is important to glean lessons from those experiences, it is also important that policymakers not overlearn them, and in doing so, miss the consequential changes to Russia’s information manipulation strategy that are now underway. These changes are occurring partly to evade increasingly sophisticated detection capabilities and policies on the part of social media platforms. But they are also occurring for a more fundamental reason: the Russian government and its proxies do not need to rely on large quantities of troll farm content to upend U.S. domestic politics with corrosive narratives that undermine trust in democratic institutions and belief in the existence of truth itself. The fire is already raging—it needs only a nudge here or there to be redirected to good effect. This paper is not meant to be a taxonomy of Russian TTPs generally, but to highlight evolving trends with relevance to policymakers. It is an effort to help stakeholders of all types—journalists, regulators, and researchers—look beyond individual campaigns to see the full picture of Russian activity as it is changing and to anticipate what might be to come.
Topic:: Elections, Disinformation, Foreign Interference, and Leaks
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

13076. A Future Internet for Democracies: Contesting China’s Push for Dominance in 5G, 6G, and the Internet of Everything

Author:: Lindsay Gorman
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The United States and its democratic allies are engaged in a contest for the soul of the Future Internet. Conceived as a beacon of free expression with the power to tear down communication barriers across free and unfree societies alike, the Internet today faces significant challenges to its status as the world’s ultimate connector. In creating connectivity and space for democratic speech, it has also enabled new means of authoritarian control and the suppression of human rights through censorship and surveillance. As tensions between democracies and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) heat up over Internet technologies, the prospect of a dichotomous Internet comes more sharply into focus: a democratic Internet where information flows freely and an authoritarian Internet where it is tightly controlled—separated not by an Iron Curtain, but a Silicon one. The Future Internet is deeply enmeshed in the dawning information contest between autocracies and democracies. It is the base layer—the foundation—on which communication takes place and the entry point into narrative and societal influence. How the next generation of Internet technologies are created, defined, governed, and ultimately used will have an outsized impact on this information contest—and the larger geopolitical contest—between democracy and authoritarianism. China’s growing presence in the global telecommunications market—and the threat that reality poses to the United States and its allies—has catalyzed both national security and economic policy interest in fifth-generation cellular network infrastructure (5G). Like 2G, 3G, and 4G before it, the next generation of mobile connectivity promises a step-change in Internet capability and a societal transformation—through the explosion of connected devices across cities, vehicles, factories, and homes. The nascent data-fueled economy 5G Internet will spawn represents a new playing field for nation-state competition in both commercial innovation and systems of governance alike. In this new economy, United States leadership is not assured. China has made a targeted push to lead the world in the emerging technologies of the future—built on future networks and extending to the applications their data will enable: from artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous cars to smart grids and advanced manufacturing. Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei has by some measures provided the most technical contributions to the 5G standard and last year filed more patents in Europe than any other company. Heavy state subsidies provided by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have increased the competitiveness of Chinese firms in critical technology industries abroad. As the Pentagon’s Innovation Board bluntly put it: “The country that owns 5G will own many of these innovations and set the standards for the rest of the world … That country is currently not likely to be the United States.”
Topic:: Science and Technology, Democracy, Internet, and 5G
Political Geography:: China and Asia

13077. Linking Values and Strategy: How Democracies Can Offset Autocratic Advances

Author:: Jessica Brandt, Zack Cooper, Bradley Hanlon, and Laura Rosenberger
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The United States and other liberal democracies face a persistent asymmetric threat from authoritarian challengers who aim to reshape the global order in their favor. Illiberal regimes use a wide range of tools across the political, economic, technological, and information domains to undermine democratic institutions and alliances, prevent criticism of their own regimes and governance systems, and establish norms and standards favorable to autocratic rule. In the case of digital information technology, these efforts go beyond shaping norms to controlling the infrastructure that transmits information itself. To date, democracies have been slow to adapt to this contest, allowing autocrats to seize the initiative by taking advantage of the openness of liberal systems. Fortunately, the United States can regain the initiative in this emerging competition with authoritarianism—if it addresses its vulnerabilities, leverages its strategic advantages, and reframes the contest on its own terms. The United States faces an array of domestic challenges—political polarization, inequality and racism, erosion of traditional media, a growing tech-government divide, flawed and porous political influence systems, and impaired economic competitiveness—that threaten to undermine the United States’ competitive strengths. Autocrats can leverage these cleavages and constraints in the short-term, but in the long-term democratic characteristics confer tremendous strategic advantages. The United States’ advantages include a vibrant civil society, dynamic and competitive economy, innovative private sector, and robust network of alliances. Leveraging these strengths requires a national strategy to offset autocratic advances by seizing on the advantages of open systems, building resilience into democratic institutions, and exploiting the brittleness of authoritarian regimes. This Task Force report outlines the logic and contours of such a national strategy across four overlapping non-military domains.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

13078. 5G Security: The New Energy Security

Author:: Kristine Berzina
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Europe is on the cusp of a crucial technological and political transformation. This year, most EU member states will need to finalize plans for building 5G networks, which will overhaul the way their economies function. Only a handful of companies around the globe can provide the equipment needed for a 5G system—China’s Huawei and Europe’s Ericsson and Nokia are leaders. Europe’s telecommunications operators have focused on economic questions such as cost and timing in selecting suppliers, but strategic and geopolitical concerns are no less important, as are the concerns of Europe’s allies. The United States has banned Huawei from much of its infrastructure over security concerns, and in July, the United Kingdom reversed course and banned the installation of new Huawei parts from its 5G networks starting in 2021 and requiring the removal of existing equipment by 2027. The EU’s member states are in the process of making critical decisions of their own, and the stakes are high. Europe is at risk of locking itself into new technological and strategic dependencies with an authoritarian state: China. Europe has deep and painful experience with dependence on an authoritarian superpower, just in a different sector and with a different power. The commodity in question is old-fashioned natural gas, and the country is Russia. Western European countries entered into long-term energy ties with Russia through the construction of natural gas pipelines in the 1970s over vehement objections by successive U.S. administrations.1 To this day, Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe,2 and the decision to power European industry on Russian gas continues to eat away at European and transatlantic solidarity. Germany’s ongoing support for Russian natural gas projects, such as the Nord Stream pipelines, ignores the energy security worries of Germany’s EU neighbors3 and is subjecting European companies to U.S. sanctions.4 Over the past several decades, the natural gas relationship between Russia and Germany, in particular, has grown into a vector for Russia’s influence in Europe’s strongest economy. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder became the chairman of the board of the first Nord Stream pipeline, which was conceived of during his chancellorship, and then drew further financial benefits from the Russian energy sector in his roles as chairman of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and of Rosneft, Russia’s massive state-owned oil company.5 Having a former head of government accept money from Russian state-owned companies, and then advocate in favor of government policies friendly to Russia, is an example of how the economic relationship with Russia can corrupt and coopt the political establishment. It has taken the European Union nearly four decades and significant funds to put in place a regulatory framework and infrastructure that offset the energy security risks inherent in the reliance on Russia’s natural gas. Critical capabilities now in place include the ability to pump gas from west to east, EU oversight of member states’ bilateral natural gas supply contracts with Russia, and the unbundling of monolithic companies to allow for greater competition and third-party access to major infrastructure.6 And the system is still imperfect. While it is unlikely that EU citizens will be left freezing in January because of a natural gas supply cut-off, the distrust that pipelines foment between EU member states continues to poison European ties. Moreover, getting here required various worst-case scenarios to occur—supply disruptions and Russian military aggression on the European continent—before the EU took significant action. In 2006 and 2009, Russia cut off natural gas supplies because of disputes with Ukraine that literally left Europeans in the cold during the dead of winter.7 These incidents launched real regulatory efforts to increase the security of energy flows.8 But even then, it took Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 for the EU to delve into the bigger geopolitical questions of energy security and launch a European Energy Union.9 The Energy Union has fixed critical vulnerabilities but still was not able to stop plans to build new pipelines to Russia. The EU does not have forty years to steel itself against the risk of China’s technology and economic coercion. The digital economy is faster-moving and will be more fundamental to the transformation of Europe’s economy in the coming decades than energy trade with Russia has been so far. It may be more important for Europe to protect itself against the strategic vulnerabilities that can come from technological dependency on China than it was for Europe to get the gas question right, and Europe will have less time to do it. This paper explains what 5G technology is, assesses where the EU stands on telecoms infrastructure and 5G policymaking, compares the risks of Europe’s dependence on Russia for natural gas with the risks of dependence on China for 5G, and offers policy solutions and recommendations for Europe to reduce its vulnerability.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, European Union, and 5G
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

13079. Treasury’s War on Corruption: A U.S. Treasury Department Strategy to Fight Kleptocracy and Root Dirty Money Out of the U.S. Financial System

Author:: Josh Rudolph
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The incoming Biden administration has signaled through speeches, articles, and interviews that one of its top policy priorities will be combating corruption and kleptocracy.1 With Russia and China’s increasing usage of strategic corruption and malign finance as geopolitical weapons, and with publics around the world—including in the United States—angry about economic inequality and perceived corruption at home, anti-corruption offers a unique opportunity to unify U.S. foreign and domestic policy. Diplomats and lawmakers agree that cracking down on corruption may be the most viable way to restore American leadership by meeting demands for accountability from citizens all over the world.2 Corruption will be the topic of a dedicated special session of the UN General Assembly in June.3 The issue should get support from leaders at a G7 summit in the U.K. around the same time.4 Fighting corruption will also be one of the three areas for new country commitments at the Summit for Democracy that President-elect Joe Biden plans to host during his first year in office.5 At that summit, the U.S. commitment will be a “presidential policy directive that establishes combating corruption as a core national security interest and democratic responsibility.”6 Making this U.S. and international anti-corruption campaign a lasting success will require more than words. In the months ahead, while the administration’s top leadership and the nation’s public health and economic experts are focused on ending the pandemic and rebuilding the economy, the U.S. national security and financial enforcement community should get to work laying the groundwork for a raft of powerful anti-corruption executive actions to be announced in time for the Summit for Democracy. Concurrently, U.S. diplomats should leverage those plans to insist that countries attending the summit make similarly hard commitments, setting a high bar for admission.7 Regulatory rulemaking by the U.S. Treasury Department could usher in several landmark reforms that have been recommended for many years by financial enforcers, multilateral standard-setting bodies, and anti-corruption watchdogs. This policy opportunity is possible because the reforms never overcame opposition by special interests during the period before corruption became a leading national security threat roughly five years ago, and then they were generally not prioritized by the Trump administration. The most potent achievable action available would be for Treasury to set rules requiring several types of professional service providers that enable corruption to institute anti-money laundering controls whereby they would have to identify their ultimate customers and start alerting Treasury of suspicious activity, as is required of U.S. banks.8 Of the industries enabling corruption by helping wealthy clients hide money, ten could be regulated immediately by revoking regulatory exemptions to the Bank Secrecy Act, including real estate agents, private equity and hedge funds, sellers of yachts and airplanes, and seven other types of exempted financial institutions.9 Other key enablers would require new regulatory determinations with strong legal and political backing, such as lawyers, accountants, company formation agents, and art dealers. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), which administers the Bank Secrecy Act, must write stringent regulations to implement the newly mandated beneficial ownership registry, resisting pressure by special interests to water it down. Treasury should also leverage concerns about the recently leaked “FinCEN Files” to work with Congress on a major investment in FinCEN, potentially on the scale of the seven-fold jump in budgetary resources needed by Treasury to implement recent reforms to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).10 Treasury should publish its first-ever National Corruption Risk Assessment about the financial networks of kleptocracies and oligarchs, reviewing case studies and methods to assess vulnerabilities and risk. Treasury should create a cross-border payments database and make financial institutions scrutinize politicians’ accounts more closely. Treasury should continue supporting two policy initiatives that have developed strongly to pressure kleptocracies in the past couple years by internationalizing Global Magnitsky sanctions and collaborating with the International Monetary Fund on corruption engagement. The U.S. Treasury Department is uniquely positioned to roll out these and other policy, regulatory, enforcement, and diplomatic actions in the fight against corruption, because it is the only part of the U.S. government with a foothold in each area of domestic and international finance that will be key to rooting dirty money out of the global financial system and applying pressure on kleptocrats and their oligarch proxies. Many of Treasury’s most highly developed capabilities have grown out of past fights against top national security threats, such as terrorist financing. The two months following the September 11 attacks witnessed one of the most energetic and well-coordinated performances in Treasury Department history. With Treasury not yet organized and coordinated around anti-corruption, achieving anything like past feats would require Treasury to start by establishing a small team devoted exclusively to this new mission. Specifically, the Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI) should appoint a counselor dedicated to developing and advancing anti-corruption initiatives, from expanding the coverage of the U.S. anti-money laundering regime to prioritizing the threats of strategic corruption and malign finance across Treasury’s policy, intelligence, and enforcement efforts. Some of these projects could bear fruit in 2021, while others need longer-term development of capabilities to find kleptocrats’ money hiding within the financial system and prepare policy options to confiscate, sanction, or reveal it. The TFI anti-corruption counselor, who should be designated as early as possible in the administration, should have a staff of two and a mandate to coordinate with and leverage resources across the four principal TFI offices, while also cooperating with Treasury’s Office of International Affairs. And while the White House National Security Council should lead the overall fight against kleptocracy and corruption, the TFI anti-corruption counselor should serve as Treasury’s senior working-level point of contact for collaboration between Treasury and the rest of the U.S. government, as well as with international partners, civil society, and Congress. Combating corruption and kleptocracy will be one of the top priorities of the Biden administration, and Treasury has the resources to start delivering major results quickly. But to do so it must coordinate throughout the Treasury Department and with external partners to roll out big executive actions in 2021.
Topic:: Corruption, Finance, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

13080. Getting Brexit Started: prospects for a new EU-UK partnership into the 2020s

Author:: Andrew Hammond and Tim Oliver
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) on January 31 was a seminal moment in post-war history, and one that presents challenges and opportunities for both key parties. Yet far from being a single, isolated event, the departure derives from a much broader process of well over a dozen negotiations (a catch-all term used here for formal diplomatic discussions and wider debates about Brexit) between and within the UK and EU about their futures. With so many Brexit negotiations still underway, this paper underlines that the final form of the UK’s departure from the EU is not yet set in stone. Even with a withdrawal deal now ratified, there are multiple scenarios still possible: from a disorderly exit this year, through to the outside prospect of the transition being extended and a deep, comprehensive deal being concluded later in the 2020s. The stakes in play therefore remain huge and historic as both sides seek a new constructive partnership that can hopefully bring significant benefits for both at a time of global geopolitical turbulence.
Topic:: Diplomacy, European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

13081. Biowar next? Security implications of the coronavirus

Author:: Karsten Friis
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: What are the possible short-, medium- and long-term implications of the coronavirus for global security and defence? In this Strategic Update, Karsten Friis investigates the pandemic's potential consequences for the world, its armed forces, the integration of Europe, US-China relations, as well as the concept and practice of 'war' more broadly. Although much remains uncertain, the disruptions which are beginning to emerge demand a reckoning with a changed world -- and world order.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, War, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

13082. Europe in a Multipolar World

Author:: Benjamin Martill and Lisa ten Brinke
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Power is diffusing from West to East and non-democratic powers are among those rising fastest. These changes have been in the offing for decades, but their effects are now increasingly manifest. Where does Europe stand within this emerging multipolar order? Is there a European ‘pole’ in the international system, and — if so — what is its contribution to the emerging order? These are important questions at the forefront of policymakers’ minds. Benjamin Martill and Lisa ten Brinke examine in more detail the position of Europe — and the EU — in a multipolar world.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, and International System
Political Geography:: Europe

13083. From Russia With Love? Serbia's Lukewarm Reception of Russian Aid and Its Geopolitical Implications

Author:: Vuk Vuksanovic
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: As the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic reached the Balkans, Serbia has energetically taken its partnership with China to the next level. This happened as Belgrade embraced China’s “mask diplomacy” campaign of supplying medical equipment to the countries affected by the pandemic. However, while Russia has supplied aid to Serbia to combat the pandemic, it has not received the same attention from the Serbian leadership and public the way China did. Therefore, the pandemic has proven to be a potent ‘revealer’ and reminder of the lack of substance and depth of differences in the Serbo-Russian partnership.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Serbia, and Balkans

13084. China in One Country: interdependence or globalisation 'with Chinese characteristics'?

Author:: George Magnus
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Globalisation has faltered, and faces significant political challenges. In both the US and China, voices are calling for a reduction of economic interdependence between the two countries. In the US, this has taken the name of decoupling, in China, self-reliance. At the same time, China’s President, Xi Jinping has vocally championed globalisation in various global fora in recent years. Understanding of China’s systems of government and business, as well as its global interests, is lacking when compared to that of the US. In this Strategic Update, George Magnus investigates what is meant when China’s leadership speaks of globalisation, and what the implications of the answer are for the rest of the world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Globalization, and Leadership
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

13085. Technology in Conflict: how COVID-19 contact tracing apps can exacerbate violent conflicts

Author:: Jennifer Easterday
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this Strategic Update, Jennifer Easterday explores how a human security approach to COVID-19 tech tools would prompt tech companies, governments, and other actors to work with communities in ways that enhance their agency in the face of the pandemic to both reduce the risk of exacerbating conflict while maximizing the benefits of technology.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Conflict, Violence, Human Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13086. Economic Diplomacy in the 21st Century: Principles and Challenges

Author:: Linda Yueh
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Economic diplomacy in the 21st century will face a different set of challenges stemming from the changed global economy, US-China tensions, as well as a backlash against globalisation, among others. Therefore, the conduct of economic diplomacy, i.e., how a country manages its foreign economic relations including trade and investment, must adapt. The framework for economic diplomacy should seek to balance commercial openness with strategic foreign policy aims, broadly defined. It should situate a country within the 21st century global economy with its new drivers, promote a rules-based system in order to mitigate Great Power tensions, and recognise that all foreign economic policy is ultimately also domestic. There is no one general approach but there are several principles, each with their own challenges, for governments to consider, which is set out in this Strategic Update.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Investment, Trade, and Economic Diplomacy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

13087. All Hands on Deck: the Crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Need for US Leadership

Author:: Alexandros Zachariades
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Crisis has returned to the Eastern Mediterranean where Greek and Turkish economic interests, legal claims, and armed forces are squaring off. In this Strategic Update, Alexandros Zachariades explores how the two NATO powers arrived at the current confrontation, how the contest intersects with issues ranging from China to Libya, and how the international community can resolve the tension.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Economics, and Leadership
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Greece, Libya, United States of America, and Mediterranean

13088. Britain's No-Deal Debacle? The Costs at Home and Likely Setbacks Abroad

Author:: John Ryan
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: For much of the past four years, and increasingly in the past few months, the United Kingdom has drifted in the direction of a No-Deal Brexit. In this Strategic Update, John Ryan explores the economic and political consequences for the United Kingdom of such a situation, as well as the domestic factors in Ireland and the United States that may provide unanticipated problems for the Johnson government.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Politics, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:: Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, and United States of America

13089. Myanmar's Search for Normalcy in an Abnormal World

Author:: Matthew B. Arnold
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: For much of the past seventy-plus years since its independence, Myanmar, often known as Burma, was an isolated military dictatorship plagued by seemingly perpetual civil war. Myanmar’s evolution from military dictatorship began in 2010 when a wide-ranging reform process began. While much has changed in the years since, much has not. Myanmar’s transition can best be understood as a “search for normalcy.” Since 2010, the sheer extent of the country’s dysfunction after decades of military dictatorship has overshadowed prospects for change as has the mass exodus of Rohingya in 2017 after a brutal campaign by the military. Amid these quandaries, it is useful to focus on what is feasible for the country in terms of transitioning to what can be understood as “normal”, or at least on a trajectory towards “normalization”. Framing Myanmar’s domestic prospects is also the reality that the last decade has been distinctly abnormal for the whole world. Reform in Myanmar means working methodically to untangle the messy, convoluted knot that is Myanmar’s governance, politics, and economics and being patient throughout the process. All things considered, Myanmar is progressing in important ways that should neither be taken for granted nor forgotten.
Topic:: Politics, History, Conflict, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and Myanmar

13090. The War is Dead, Long Live the War? Counterterrorism after the Trump Presidency

Author:: Jonny Hall
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In his re-election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly claimed to be ending America's 'endless wars'. In this Strategic Update, Jonny Hall examines this claim by reviewing the Trump administration's counterterrorism policies over the last four years, showing that although there has been recent concrete progress towards withdrawal, this does not constitute an ending the so-called 'forever wars'.
Topic:: War, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

13091. Old Issues, New Threats: Mine Action and IEDs in Urban Environments

Author:: Dave Luke
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The nature of conflict is changing. Mine Action’s policy and practices are therefore coming under strain from the contemporary conflict trends of urbanisation and non-state armed groups (NSAG) using improvised explosive devices (IEDs). This Strategic Update considers if there is a paradigm shift underway or if the current frictions are growth pains for this generation of humanitarian responders.
Topic:: Weapons, Landmines, and IED
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13092. Axis of Convenience? Israel and China in a multipolar world

Author:: Vuk Vuksanovic
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Despite being one of the most important allies of the United States in the Middle East, Israel has been building a new partnership with China since 2013. The repositioning is motivated by changes in the country’s strategic environment, its crisis in the relationship with the United States during the Obama years, and its economic and infrastructural needs. However, Israel is still deeply anchored in its alliance with the United States, which will impose limitations on how far its partnership with China can grow. For now, nevertheless, this relationship attests to the new geopolitical reality of the 21st century in which even the most ardent US allies, such as Israel, must hedge their bets and diversify their partnerships by engaging China.
Topic:: Partnerships, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and United States of America

13093. China and COVID-19: a shock to its economy, a metaphor for its development

Author:: George Magnus
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The Chinese government’s draconian actions to control the coronavirus seem to be producing a remarkable economic contraction. As so many are unable to attend or resume work at the moment, the government’s palliative economic measures may gain little traction. Although the demand shock will eventually fade, other longer-term issues will surely endure. The supply shock will be less obvious but more corrosive. The government’s questionable conduct in managing the public health crisis has unveiled significant features about governance in Xi’s China that can be mapped on to China’s development. While this crisis is the biggest challenge Xi has faced, there is little doubt that he will survive it, champion the party’s role in the nation’s rescue, and feel emboldened to continue with his authoritarian governance. Yet it is this that, in the long run, will prove incompatible with China’s economic development ambitions.
Topic:: Development, Economy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: China and Asia

13094. Battleground Southeast Asia: China's Rise and America's Options

Author:: Charles Dunst
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Southeast Asia, while still a reservoir of goodwill for the US, has in recent years come increasingly under China's umbrella. In this Strategic Update, Charles Dunst analyzes China's expansion there, discusses Southeast Asians' American predeliction, and offers steps the US can take to "win back" the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, International Affairs, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

13095. Making Sense of Technological Spheres of Influence

Author:: Valentin Weber
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The deterioration of Sino-American relations and the rise of novel forms of statecraft have given way to a worrying new feature of the international system: technological spheres of influence. In this Strategic Update, Valentin Weber explains how we have arrived at this novel geopolitical arrangement, where in the world the greatest contestation lies, and what the future of technospheres may hold.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and International System
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

13096. Reporte de Recomendaciones de Política: Hacia un Loreto más próspero

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos, Jorge Tudela Pye, Frank Muci, Yang Li, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, Ana Cristina Grisanti, and Jessie Lu
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Loreto es un lugar de contrastes. Es el departamento más grande del Perú, pero se encuentra entre los de menor densidad poblacional. Su capital, Iquitos, está más cerca de los estados fronterizos de Brasil y Colombia que de las capitales de sus regiones vecinas en el Perú - San Martín y Ucayali. Sólo se puede llegar a Iquitos por vía aérea o fluvial, lo que la convierte en una de las mayores ciudades del mundo sin acceso por carretera. Desde la fundación del departamento, la economía de Loreto ha dependido de la explotación de recursos naturales, desde el boom del caucho a finales del siglo XIX y principios del XX hasta la extracción petrolera y explotación de recursos forestales que predomina en nuestros días. Este modelo ha traído consigo daños ambientales significativos y ha producido un patrón de crecimiento lento y volátil, que ha abierto una brecha cada vez más amplia entre la economía de la región y la del resto del país. Entre 1980 y 2018, Loreto creció a una tasa promedio compuesta anual cuatro veces menor a la del resto del Perú. Es decir, mientras el resto del Perú triplicó el tamaño de su economía, la de Loreto creció algo menos que un tercio. En la última década (2008-2018), la región también se ha venido distanciando de sus pares amazónicos en el país (Ucayali, San Martín y Madre de Dios), que han crecido a una tasa promedio anual cinco veces mayor. En este período, el ingreso promedio por habitante en Loreto ha pasado de ser tres cuartas partes del promedio nacional en 2008 a menos de la mitad para 2018. Además del rezago económico - o quizás como consecuencia de él -, Loreto también se ubica entre los departamentos con peores indicadores de desarrollo social, anemia y desnutrición infantil del Perú. En este contexto, el Laboratorio de Crecimiento de la Universidad de Harvard se asoció con la Fundación Gordon and Betty Moore para desarrollar una investigación que proporcionara insumos y recomendaciones de política para acelerar el desarrollo de la región y generar prosperidad de forma sostenible.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

13097. The Strategic Implications of Chinese-Iranian-Russian Naval Drills in the Indian Ocean

Author:: Syed Fazl-e Haider
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In early December, Major General Shao Yuanming (邵元明), the Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), traveled to the Islamic Republic of Iran for rare high-level military meetings. These meetings were held for the purpose of organizing a series of unprecedented joint naval drills between China, Iran, and Russia, which were held in the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Oman from December 27–29. The drills took place just as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran reached a crisis point at the end of 2019. The exercise also signified a deepening relationship between Iran and the PRC in economics, diplomacy, and security affairs. China and Russia have both increased military and economic cooperation with Iran in the year and a half since the U.S. government pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, while Iran’s government has repeatedly touted its deepening relations with China and Russia as a show of diplomatic strength, its allies have been less public about the growing relationship. In December, Iranian officials lauded the trilateral exercises—titled “Marine Security Belt”—as proof that Iran can outlast crippling sanctions with aid from its non-Western allies, and declared that the drills signaled a new triple alliance in the Middle East (Tasnim News, December 29, 2019). [1] By contrast, officials from Russia and the PRC were more restrained, framing the joint exercises as part of routine anti-piracy operations, highlighting their peacekeeping priorities and seeking to depoliticize the drills (South China Morning Post, September 23, 2019; Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Russia), October 2, 2019).
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Navy, Maritime, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

13098. Pakistan and CPEC Are Drawn Into the U.S.-China Rivalry

Author:: Adnan Aamir
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Leaders in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan were stunned in late November when a senior U.S. government official issued a strong verbal attack on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). On November 21 in Washington, D.C., U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asia Affairs Alice Wells spoke at length about the CPEC at a public event, criticizing multiple elements of the $62 billion flagship component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Ambassador Wells cast doubt upon claims that CPEC will generate sustainable economic development in Pakistan and criticized the project’s cost escalations and non-transparent processes of awarding CPEC contracts to Chinese firms. She appealed to Pakistan’s citizens to ask tough questions of the PRC regarding the CPEC and China’s related projects in Pakistan (U.S. State Department, November 21, 2019). In the past, the U.S. government had raised concerns over CPEC and China’s “debt-trap diplomacy,” but it had never presented such a direct and detailed set of criticisms. Ambassador Wells crossed that line—bringing the notoriously stalled out CPEC back under international scrutiny just after Chinese and Pakistani leaders had brokered a cautiously optimistic set of funding deals to jumpstart progress a month before (Ministry of Foreign Affairs (PRC), October 9, 2019). Chinese representatives were quick to respond to Ambassador Wells’s criticisms. The next day, PRC Ambassador to Islamabad Yao Jing(姚敬) said that he had been “shocked and surprised to see the remarks of Alice,” and that Ambassador Wells lacked accurate knowledge and had relied on “Western media ‘propaganda’” for her accusations. He called on the U.S. to “show your evidence, give me evidence” of specific cases of corruption related to the CPEC, and questioned whether Wells was taking potshots at the CPEC to score political points. Ambassador Yao challenged the U.S. to suit its actions to its words: “If there is any sincerity… [the U.S. should] come forward to invest in Pakistan. We [China] welcome U.S. investment in Pakistan.” (INP (Pakistan), November 22, 2019; VOA, November 22, 2019). In addition to refocusing negative attention on the CPEC, Assistant Secretary of State Wells’ speech drew a reluctant Pakistan further into the tumultuous U.S.-China political rivalry. Pakistan faces a balance of payments crisis and a severely weakened currency, which has led it to grow increasingly dependent on economic ties with China. At the same time, the Pakistani leadership has navigated a complex and multifaceted historic security and political partnership with the U.S. If, as Ambassador Wells’ statement seems to imply, Pakistan’s engagement with China is seen to come at the expense of its bilateral relationship with the U.S. – or vice-versa – then Pakistan’s delicate power balancing diplomacy will soon become even more tenuous.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

13099. Making Foreign Companies Serve China: Outsourcing Propaganda to Local Entities in the Czech Republic

Author:: Martin Hala
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The fast build-up and equally sudden decline of Chinese influence in the Czech Republic offers an interesting case study of vulnerability and resilience in the newly democratic small states targeted by the united front operations of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). [1] Recent revelations about a powerful Czech financial corporation manipulating public opinion in favor of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) demonstrate the complex dynamics between political and economic actors—both Chinese and local—and how private companies are being leveraged to spread pro-PRC propaganda (Aktuálně, December 10, 2019 / English translation). The main vector of influence in the Czech Republic has been the PRC’s “economic diplomacy,” which downplays political differences and emphasizes the economic opportunities offered by closer relationships with China (Sinopsis, March 11, 2019; China Brief, May 9, 2019). In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), it builds on promises of investments into local economies still lagging behind those in Western Europe. The promised investments may or may not materialize, but the economic enticement alone creates a conducive environment for the cooptation of local political and business elites in a manner similar to more traditional united front tactics (China Brief, May 9, 2019). Apart from the promised investments by Chinese companies, the reverse allure may consist of market access in China for local companies, which may then be manipulated into becoming propaganda echo chambers for the CCP. The Czech Republic offers examples of both of these phenomena.
Topic:: Propaganda, Local, Private Sector, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Czech Republic

13100. Beijing Piles More Pressure on Taiwan after a Historic Victory by Tsai Ing-Wen

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: How will Beijing react to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s resounding re-election victory on January 11, when she garnered a historic 8 million votes, or 57.13 percent of the electorate? So far, Beijing’s response to this triumph by the candidate of the theoretically pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been relatively non-belligerent. The spokesman of the cabinet-level Taiwan Affairs Office said a few hours after the polls that Beijing would “insist on the basic objective of ‘peaceful unification and one country, two systems’,” even though he also indicated that Beijing would not tolerate “any form of ‘Taiwan independence’.” Another post-election commentary by the official Xinhua News Agency said that “the mainland firmly holds the initiative in bilateral relations.” In an article in the usually hawkish Global Times, Editor-in-Chief Hu Xijin said Chinese society was “prepared for war with Taiwan independence,” but that it was not yet ready for “immediate warfare” (Xinhua, January 12; Phoenix TV News, January 12; Global Times, January 11; South China Morning Post, January 11). Observers of Taiwan Strait dynamics have noted that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, the highest-ranking decision-maker on Taiwan issues, was bitterly unhappy about the margin of Tsai’s victory; and that the commander-in-chief will likely order a series of measures to boost “war preparation,” squeeze Taiwan’s diplomatic space, suppress Taiwan’s economy, and nurture the so-called “fifth column” in Taiwan society (Chinatimes.com, January 12; HK01.com, January 11). The fifth column is a reference to Taiwanese politicians and businesspeople who, while professing to defend their island against Communist aggression, are proposing more communication and even “pro-unification talks” with Beijing as a result of their dependence (financial or otherwise) on the CCP.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

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