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8041. The Post-COVID Consensus

Author:
Shahid Yusuf
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Development economics is turning a full circle with a difference. This paper addresses the circling back to the policies in vogue during the 1980s and earlier, including industrial policies, coupled with protectionism; accounts for the regression to earlier certitudes after an extended spell of globalization underpinned by market fundamentalism; and indicates how a transforming global environment has enlarged the policy agenda. There is a new policy consensus in the making, which borrows some elements of the Washington Consensus but goes beyond to encompass a broader policy agenda.
Topic:
Development, Markets, Poverty, Inequality, Economic Development, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8042. Haiti’s Failed Quest for Stability and Development after the 2010 Earthquake: Why Did It Go Wrong?

Author:
Koldo Echebarria
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Haiti is once more experiencing a severe crisis of instability and political unrest. The devastating 2010 earthquake catastrophe was seen as a chance to break with the past and steer the nation in a new direction. Although some progress was made, it was only short-lived, insufficient to establish a growth path, uneven across sectors, and, as we have since learned, politically unsustainable. The analysis identifies several reasons the effort was insufficient to bring stability and growth: (i) objectives spanned reconstruction and development while resources were limited; (ii) the approach taken to build up security was unsustainable, leaving an underfunded and institutionally weak police force; (iii) divisive and confrontational politics was recognized as the critical challenge but it was not dealt with as such; (iv) coordination between Haitian authorities and international actors suffered from a deep sense of mistrust, never achieving a shared and clear action plan; (v) state-building efforts failed and institutions deteriorated further; and, (vi) the project-by-project approach followed by international donors dispersed effort, limited adaptation to a complex reality and increased transaction costs. Policy recommendations follow the analysis, arguing for a more focused strategy from the international community with a long-term programmatic approach. Until a reasonable level of stability is reached, security and social protection should take precedence. A final reflection will be offered on how lessons learned in Haiti can be useful in other fragile contexts.
Topic:
Development, Natural Disasters, Earthquake, Instability, and Aid Effectiveness
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

8043. Forest-Based Carbon Markets: Pitfalls and Opportunities

Author:
Julián Cárdenas and Juan Jose Guzman Ayala
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Forest-based carbon markets could become an important source of income for countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia-Pacific. Estimates indicate that under a high carbon prices scenario, the value of the forest-based carbon credit market could increase from US$1.3 billion in 2021 to US$25 billion per year by 2030. Apart from the climate and monetary benefits, forest based carbon markets also have pitfalls that must be avoided. Without the right institutions in place, at the national and local level, forest projects can generate negative externalities, such as population displacement, increases in food prices, and biodiversity degradation. The value chain in carbon credits involves a number of high value-added upstream and downstream activities that tend to take place outside the countries where the projects are located. Industrial policies are required for host countries to receive a higher share of the revenue stream, including in areas such as structuring, monitoring, verification, and surveillance. Countries need to promote actions in labor training, research and development, and access to long-term capital. The paper proposes the creation National Carbon Federations as institutions to resolve several market failures, while preventing conflict, ensuring adequate savings of the additional income, and strengthen democratic governance. These organizations can also provide key public goods, so that local communities benefit from the development of carbon credits from tropical forests.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Climate Finance, Forests, and Carbon Markets
Political Geography:
Latin America

8044. The Future of UK Global Health Policy: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Pete Baker
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Since 2019, the UK’s strong reputation in global health has been undermined by a series of deep cuts and a distracting departmental reorganisation. 2024 may, however, represent a turning point, with new Foreign and Development Ministers, both with a strong track record on development, the implementation of a new development white paper, and a possible election which may bring a new government with new priorities. In this paper, we summarise the challenges and opportunities in global health on which the UK will need to act if it wishes to restore its reputation. We review UK global health aid expenditure data up to 2022, current UK global health policies, and major external global trends. We find that in 2018, the UK reported spending £2.17 billion (0.1 percent of Gross National Income (GNI)). By 2022, this fell to £1.73 billion (0.07 percent of GNI). If the UK had continued at 0.1 percent of GNI level, it would now have an additional £844 million to spend on global health annually. Bilateral programmes, Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office-managed aid programmes, and reproductive health programmes were particularly hard hit by the cuts. We identify three global trends that the UK must accommodate: an acute-on-chronic health financing crises in low- and middle-income countries; changing demographics, burden of disease, and increasing global threats; and the inadequacy of global health architecture. Finally, we recommend a five-point plan for the UK government to take forward: 1) Champion debt relief and “health taxes” to increase resources for health; 2) Support countries to strengthen health system efficiency; 3) Prioritise limited UK financing on key, measurable objectives in a few low-income countries. 4) Conduct a multilateral aid review that focuses on developing country priorities; and 5) Direct UK health system strengthening funding through the World Bank and long-term bilateral programmes.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, and Global Health
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

8045. Warming or Cooling on World Bank Climate Finance: What Drives Country Demand?

Author:
Clemence Landers, Karen Mathiasen, and Samuel Matthews
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The climate agenda has been a dominant feature of World Bank reform efforts, with President Banga aiming to both mobilize new resources and increase the proportion of total funding for climate-related projects. The stakes are high: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in many borrowing countries are elevated and rising, dimming prospects for meeting the 2030 Paris Agreement target to limit warming to a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase. To date, stakeholders have focused on how to mobilize new funding for climate mitigation reflecting an emphasis on the supply side (e.g., financing) of the agenda. But there has been little analysis on the demand side (or project pipeline). The assumption is that more money will generate more demand. But this does not necessarily follow. In this paper, we discuss major factors that will influence demand for climate mitigation projects, especially from the largest emitters of greenhouse gases (e.g., China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico). Our assessment is that factors like World Bank borrowing costs and access to alternative sources of finance will likely limit demand absent financial incentives, which could prove costly and difficult to resource at the scale needed to have meaningful impact. We also see a risk that these incentives could be used inefficiently absent a rigorous analysis to identify where they could have the most impact and a robust framework for assessing results.
Topic:
World Bank, Climate Finance, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8046. Containing Militancy in West Africa’s Park W

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Insurgents have established bases in an important nature reserve spanning parts of Benin, Burkina Faso and Niger. They pose a growing danger to local ecosystems and people living around the park. The three countries need to collaborate more closely to keep the threat at bay.
Topic:
Environment, Regional Cooperation, Insurgency, Natural Resources, Biodiversity, Countering Violent Extremism, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, Sahel, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Benin

8047. Averting a New War between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The European Union is sending monitors to Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan, so as to lessen the danger of renewed fighting between the two countries over Nagorno-Karabakh and other issues. Brussels must give the mission the means and mandate it will need to succeed.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, and European Union
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

8048. Managing Palestine’s Looming Leadership Transition

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With Mahmoud Abbas ageing, a change is drawing near at the top of the Palestinian national movement. It remains unclear how a successor will be chosen. Elections are the best way, but Abbas and his circle are likely to try other, riskier means first.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Mahmoud Abbas, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and West Bank

8049. Mitigating Risks of Violence in Nigeria’s 2023 Elections

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The largest, most youthful electorate in Nigerian history will head to the polls soon to decide high-stakes presidential, parliamentary and state-level races. Numerous violent incidents have already marred the campaign. Authorities can take several steps to lessen the dangers before, during and after the vote.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

8050. Taliban Restrictions on Women’s Rights Deepen Afghanistan’s Crisis

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Taliban have barred women from universities and many workplaces, compelling several aid organisations to pause operations in Afghanistan and donors to contemplate cuts to assistance. Yet the principled response remains to mitigate the harm these harsh rulings are doing to the most vulnerable Afghans.
Topic:
Taliban, Women, Discrimination, Conflict, Donors, and Gender
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia