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7831. International Dimensions of Authoritarian Persistence in the MENA Region: Revisiting US Foreign Aid to Egypt in the post-2011 Arab Uprisings Era

Author:
Eman Ratrout and Nur Köprülü
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The majority of studies that examine political liberalization and democratization in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region concentrate on internal factors such as Islamic or patriarchal culture, oil rents, socio-economic structures and patrimonialism. This article argues instead that external factors under the cloak of aid represent one of the main dynamics impeding democratic transformation in the region, and precisely supports authoritarian regime consolidation. In this regard, Egypt can be described as a case of authoritarian stability in the post-2011 Arab Uprisings era in which politics and stability rather than democratization and/ or development agenda have become the main motive behind donor decisions hitherto. In this article, Egypt has been selected as a case study to illuminate how the increased hopes and dividends of democratic transition from the Arab Uprisings can swiftly turn into upholding authoritarian rule.
Topic:
Foreign Aid, Hegemony, Authoritarianism, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, and MENA

7832. Understanding US Foreign Policy: A Theoretical Analysis

Author:
Ahmet Ates
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
From the point of view of International Relations theory, understanding “America and the world” is mostly about the world: the U.S. is an important actor, but it acts mostly in response to international trends. However, from the point of view of theories of American politics and domestic politics theories of foreign policy, “America and the world” is mostly about America: American actions are primarily the result of domestic political institutions and the political processes they help to structure. In that manner, this articles surveys three selected theories of International relations namely, realism, liberalism and constructivism and three selected theories of American politics namely, mass politics, psychological explanations, and institutional approaches to provide a thorough analysis of US foreign policy studies. Further, it argues that international relations theories usually explain why US foreign policy acts in a particular way while American politics theories explain why US foreign policy specifically acts that way and why it does not act in an alternative way. Hence, this article argues that while international relations theories are useful to explain general trends in US foreign policy, American politics theories are better to capture the complexity of US foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

7833. A concept approach to use of the EU-SENSE system in exercises based on the Kolb's learning cycle

Author:
Magdalena Gikiewicz
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of the article is to present a conceptual approach to the use of the EU-SENSE system in exercises based on Kolb’s learning cycle. The methodology of the research conducted in 2018–2021 was based on an analysis of literature in the field of teaching adults and conducting training, chemical and ecological rescue, analysis of domestic and foreign materials and procedures in the field of chemical and ecological rescue, direct observation of the way of the State Guard Fire Service respond to CBRNe threats, taking place in the measurement test dams of the EU-SENSE system and for the analysis of the training module, which is an element of the EU-SENSE system. After completing the exercises, the participant should achieve learning outcomes in terms of knowledge, abilities and skills. The acquired knowledge and practical skills will allow firefighters and civilians to conduct effective and safe rescue operations in the field of chemical rescue during incidents involving hazardous chemicals in the future. Exercises in the field of chemical rescue with the use of the EU-SENSE system will lead to an improvement of skills within the State Fire Service and make it possible for it to cooperate and coordinate activities with entities cooperating in the field of crisis management activities.
Topic:
European Union, Crisis Management, Hybrid Threats, and Early Warning
Political Geography:
Europe

7834. Improved detection of chemical threats by sensor data fusion

Author:
Norbert Ludwig Kopp and Helge Koch-Eschweiler
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper presents some aspects of sensor data fusion that were derived from the EU-SENSE project of the European Commission (Horizon 2020, Grant Agreement No 787031). The aim of EU-SENSE was to develop a novel network of sensors for CBRNe applications through the exploitation of chemical detector technologies, advanced machine-learning and modelling algorithms. The high-level objectives of the project include improving the detection capabilities of the novel network of chemical sensors through the use of machine learning algorithms and reducing the impact of environmental noise. The focus in this paper is on the detection and data fusion aspects as well as the machine learning approaches that were used as part of the project. Detection (in the sense of detectto-warn) is a classification task and improvement of detection requires enhancing the discriminatory power of the classifier, that is reducing false alarms, false positives, and false negatives. This was achieved by a two-step procedure, that is a sensitive distance-based anomaly/change detection followed by downstream classification, identification and concentration estimation. Bayesian networks proved to be useful when fusing information from multiple sensors. For validation purposes, experimental data was gathered during the project and the developed approaches were applied successfully. Despite the development of several new, helpful tools within the project, the domain of chemical detection remains challenging, particularly regarding provisioning of the necessary prior-knowledge. It might make sense from a coverage point of view to look into integration of stand-off detection techniques into a sensor network, including data fusion too.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Machine Learning, and Chemical Threats
Political Geography:
Europe

7835. COVID-19 Implications for China's National Security

Author:
Marta Gębska
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic began in March 2020 and China has since been under public scrutiny for neglecting the first signs of this global health challenge and for its lockdown strategy. Although lockdowns have not lasted for long, China needs to confront the political, social, and economic implications for its national security. The paper aims to fill a gap in the knowledge and investigate aspects of China’s national security in light of the pandemic. The study is based on desk research using secondary data and statistical and comparative analysis. It also employs an inductive method to build general theorems. The Chinese government can be seen as successful in dealing with the pandemic because of a low death toll and minimal economic losses. By early February 2022, only 106,863 Chinese had been diagnosed, and 4,636 had died from the virus. China also achieved enviable economic success and, its output grew by 18.3% year on year in the first quarter of 2021, the fastest rate since the 1990s, and it was the first major economy to withdraw its pandemic stimulus. China consolidated its position in low-income countries and improved its image as a global leader in trade by supplying vaccines, masks and ventilators, and strengthened its geopolitical standing. It will face threats from other countries working on a joint approach to the challenges posed by Beijing and while the aftereffects of the crisis can be seen, it also fears that they might further affect China's national security.
Topic:
National Security, International Security, Economy, COVID-19, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
China and Asia

7836. Bureaucratic policy and defense cooperation among the Baltic states

Author:
Olevs Nikers and Otto Tabuns
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The objectives of this paper are to (1) comparatively analyse defence strategies of the Baltic countries against the theory of institutionalism, focusing on factors that affect policy maintenance or change within defence cooperation and (2) assess the current state of defence cooperation in the Baltic countries. The study gives a theoretical overview, relating the theory of new institutionalism to the subject of debate over bureaucratic institutions, which also plays a role in the regional security politics of the Baltic countries. An empirical study compares the defence strategies of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. While few studies have investigated this subject before, that the conclusion reached by this investigation is that administrative bodies in the defence sector of the Baltic countries are affected by politically driven processes pertaining to the foreign affairs domain, which play a key role in matters related to cooperation and synchronisation of the defence and security of the Baltic States. The findings suggest that a more focused analysis of the role of institutions and bureaucratic policy in the policy making of the three Baltic countries needs to take place. The study concludes that (1) the current state of defence cooperation in the Baltic countries can be called “developing”; (2) the operation of defence establishments can be called “path dependent”, which is mainly influenced by “external” factors or pressures.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, International Security, Military Affairs, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Europe and Baltic States

7837. The performance of the Portuguese Armed Forces and the relevance of military capabilities in 21st century: The different perspectives of citizens and militaries

Author:
Paulo Jorge Gomes
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
A high performance level in a public organisation is fundamental. The Portuguese Armed Forces can influence the environment, both external and internal, and should therefore have a high performance level and adequate development of military capabilities. For that, it is fundamental to understand the importance of military capabilities for combatting the threats of the 21st century. This paper aims to analyse the influence of military capabilities for combating the current threats and risks in fulfilling the various operations, and for optimising the performance of the Portuguese Armed Forces. A quantitative analysis was carried out from citizen and military convenience samples through correlations between variables, as well as measures of central tendency like mean and standard deviation. The results show that the development of military capabilities has a positive effect on the performance of the Portuguese Armed Forces, combatting conventional threats and risks, as well as threats to civil protection. This capabilities performance is related with the execution of military operations (external and internal). Therefore, a proper development of military capabilities (output) with a special focus on human resources and privilege and the efficiency and quality of the missions (outcomes) are essential to combat the threats of the 21st century.
Topic:
History, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Economic Security, and Perception
Political Geography:
Europe and Portugal

7838. From geopolitical anomie to a syncretic metamodel of the Greater Black Sea Region – “Five Sea Region”

Author:
Alexander Rusetsky
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The main goal of this study is to search for new effective mechanisms to assist in preventing the internationalisation of armed conflicts using conventional weapons and the creation of more weapons of mass destruction in the geostrategic region, the Greater Black Sea Region, which includes the countries of the “Five Seas” (Black Sea, Caspian Sea, Arabian Sea, and Mediterranean Sea), positive transformation of conflicts and the creation of a “Black Sea Security Community”. The methodological approach taken is based on the theory of meta-cognitive management, which implies a qualitative expansion of the dimensions for solving those problems that are unsolvable in the dimensions given today; a holistic approach focused on the multi-level and democratic participation of all participants in the process; and the method of geopolitical modelling being applied to discuss new forms and platforms for cooperation between those involved in confrontation in the Black Sea space. Innovation represents a return to the concept of syncretism in the scientific discourse for describing political and geopolitical tasks. The idea of creating a syncretic meta-model of Black Sea security is one way to improve cooperation between parties that have incompatible positions but are aware of common threats and the need to prevent them. Measures need to be taken for the countries of the Five Sea region to be fully integrated into the process and a new architecture created for the Black Sea Security Community. Scientific support is also necessary for the planning and implementation of peacekeeping processes in the Greater Black Sea Region.
Topic:
Security, Politics, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Black Sea

7839. Critical factors influencing the development of Singapore’s defense industry

Author:
Donatas Palavenis
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This study considers factors influencing Singapore’s defence industry (DI). Primary and secondary data were used and interpreted using both quantitative and qualitative comparative analysis. Furthermore, the basis of the Structure-Conduct-Performance (S-C-P) model has been utilised in structuring the layout of this paper. The Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) receive a considerable and stable defence budget, which is influenced by geopolitical implications, and this consistent funding has had a very positive impact on economic growth including the strengthening of Singapore’s DI. In the DI environment, close relationships between the SAF, Ministry of Defence (MINDEF), and other ministries, scientific institutions, research laboratories, and private businesses are evident. The capability of the indigenous DI to supply the SAF with the necessary equipment is increasing, although imports remain crucial especially in supplying the Air Forces. As the SAF prepare for third-generation warfare, the indigenous DI will play a major role in developing new solutions. The success of Singapore’s DI lies in the synergetic civil-military industrial and technological integration, timely diversification of factories towards the production of dual-use products, a niche production business strategy, successful defence offset strategy, and cooperation with the US. This study describes the most important factors influencing the DI’s development and shows the status of Singapore’s DI. It also points out that the strategic aims set by the Singapore government for the indigenous DI are sustained. Furthermore, Singapore’s strategy provides a clear roadmap for other small countries to develop their respective DIs.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Security, Weapons, Economic Security, and Military
Political Geography:
Singapore and Southeast Asia

7840. Multi-dimensional assessment of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

Author:
Andrius Bivainis
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article contains an assessment of the last war in the Southern Caucasus, referring to it as the second Nagorno–Karabakh war. The assessment is concentrated on the military capabilities built up prior to the major escalation of this war and operational features identified during the battles. The assessment uses analytic categories of processed information and initiatives that sovereign actors took during decision cycles and the conduct of military campaigns. Those analytic categories are named dimensions, with the strategic and military dimensions being the most important for this analysis. The key findings of this article suggest that additional dimensions could be used in researching the complex conditions of the war, which might have a continuous impact even outside the Southern Caucasus. The review of initiatives at the strategic dimension suggested that the built-up of two competing security policy fractions in the South Caucasus was an influential factor. The assessment of the military dimension of that war provided insights regarding the tactical choices of both adversaries. That assessment revealed some significant differences in how the campaign was conducted on both sides. Further complex tensions in the region are expected as national political decisions will drive strategic choices and drive the development of military capabilities. Given the fact that both countries were short of a consensus-based peace deal and Russia sent in peacekeeping forces, further developments in the political and strategic dimensions of this war saga should be expected.
Topic:
Science and Technology, War, Territorial Disputes, Quantitative, and Military
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh