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7811. The Egyptian Army’s Counterinsurgency: History, Past Operations, and the Sinai Campaign

Author:
Hossam el-Hamalawy
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Why did the Egyptian military, which had long avoided serious involvement in the police-led 1990s domestic War on Terror and the later fight against armed militants in Sinai, embark on a major counterinsurgency in Sinai following the 2013 coup? Why did it take the Egyptian military almost a decade to pacify the peninsula at a very high cost for Sinai residents and the military itself, despite the small size of the insurgent force and the relatively confined terrain where it operated? This paper will attempt to answer those questions, but first, it examines some catastrophic precedents where the army deployed its personnel in counterinsurgency operations, before delving into the recent Sinai war and what it tells us about the military’s mindset.
Topic:
Security, Counterinsurgency, History, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula

7812. Morocco’s Social Protection Programs: Can the Country Overcome the Odds?

Author:
Othman Makhon
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
During the 1980s, Moroccan governments adopted structural adjustment policies that inadvertently left deep-seated vulnerabilities across Moroccan society. The enduring consequences of these policies continue to marginalize a significant portion of Moroccans, depriving them of access to quality education, comprehensive healthcare, adequate housing, and decent employment opportunities. The state’s approach to addressing the societal challenges spanning decades has alternated between targeted measures aimed at rectifying the disparities stemming from the maldistribution of resources and services, on the one hand, and reactive strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of structural adjustments, on the other.1 The decreased government investments in critical social sectors, such as healthcare and education, have over time compelled this new departure from previous policies of neglect. Although such policies might have contributed to macroeconomic stability, they also adversely affected both social cohesion and the population’s social protection networks.2 Subsequent administrations embarked on a mission to address these predicaments, which have exacted a toll on Morocco and relegated the nation to the lower levels of the Human Development Index: As of the 2022 assessment, Morocco’s ranking was 123.3 These administrations were compelled to devise strategies encompassing both economic and social dimensions, aiming to free Morocco from the ramifications of stringent structural adjustment policies. Their goal was to transition the Moroccan economy from its reliance on agricultural and raw material exports to a more self-reliant model, characterized by high–value-added industries capable of absorbing the unemployed workforce into productive economic activities. Such a transformation was anticipated to pave the way for comprehensive social protection. However, the approach adopted by these administrations gravitated towards superficial and improvised remedies, dominated by an urgency-driven and philanthropic approach. These impromptu solutions fell short of propelling the vulnerable and poor segments out of the cycle of exclusion and marginalization. All initiatives within this context adhered to the neoliberal principles adopted by these governing bodies. These administrations gave paramount significance to a market-driven economy, as well as financial and macroeconomic equilibriums, oftentimes at the expense of the substantial sections of the population that experienced pervasive poverty and destitution. Consequently, social assistance endeavors proved to be misleadinag, exacerbating the disparities among Moroccans. This occurred within an environment lacking robust social and economic policies dedicated to achieving social equity and equitable distribution of resources. These programs were subject to criticism and unfavorable assessments from all corners of the state, including from the king himself, who remarked on their fragmentation across ministerial domains, inadequate coordination, and their inherent inability to accurately target deserving groups. As a result, they struggled to effectively address the needs of citizens, leaving only a faint impact on the lives they sought to improve.4 The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the existing economic and social vulnerabilities prevalent in Moroccan society. The pandemic exposed the inadequacies and fragility of the programs in safeguarding the dignity of the populace, which became particularly pronounced in the absence of a fair and robust social protection system. This reality led both the king and the political establishment to recognize the urgency of re-evaluating the fundamental underpinnings of this system. Their shared view materialized in a commitment to universal social protection for all Moroccans, with a deadline set for 2025. On the other hand, the rapid spread of the pandemic coincided with Morocco’s comprehensive assessment and recalibration of its development paradigm. Despite its aspirations, this model had failed to fully incorporate the Moroccan populace within development dynamics, instead focusing on financial equilibrium, often to the detriment of social and human equilibrium; this prompted the contemplation of a fresh development model. The newly envisaged model aimed to sever ties with the trajectory that had resulted in structural disparities, spanning domains such as education, skill development, healthcare, housing, employment, public services, and social protection.5
Topic:
Public Policy, Services, COVID-19, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

7813. Sudan’s Armed Militias and the Crisis of Civil Democratic Transition

Author:
Osama Abu Bakr
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
In December 2018, Sudan experienced a popular uprising that successfully overthrew the regime of Omar al-Bashir, leading to a transitional period with power shared among military leaders. The transitional government, guided by the principles of freedom, peace, and justice that fueled the uprising, prioritized the resolution of internal conflicts and the achievement of peace. As part of these efforts, negotiations were initiated with armed militias mediated by the state of South Sudan in its capital, Juba. These negotiations culminated in the signing of the Juba Peace Agreement in 2020 between the government and the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF), which encompassed seven armed militias operating in Darfur, the southern Blue Nile, and eastern Sudan.1 One of the most significant outcomes of the Juba Agreement was the inclusion of the SRF coalition as a third party in the transitional government. However, the integration of these militias into the political system faced challenges due to the behavior of some of their leaders. This hindered the progress of the civil democratic transition and deepened the divide between these militias and the civil political forces, with the former aligning more closely with anti-democratic elements. Eventually, these militias formed alliances within the army and orchestrated a military coup against the transitional government on 25 October 2021. This essay examines the role of armed militias in Sudan and how they use armed conflict to achieve their leaders’ stated objectives of power and wealth redistribution, as well as ending political and economic marginalization in certain regions of Sudan. These leaders employ a political discourse that links the cessation of war and the prospects of peace to a peaceful transfer of power, democratic transformation, and equitable distribution of power and resources. The central question posed by this paper is why these armed militias have positioned themselves against the Sudanese uprising and opposed the process of civil democratic transition and instead supported the military coup. The argument put forth in this paper is that the militias’ opposition to civil democratic transition stems from how they were formed, their organizational structures, the conduct of their leaders, and the intersections between public and private interests. Furthermore, the fragility of the state, its limited capacities, and the lack of legitimacy among its leaders are significant factors that underpin the militias’ approach to human rights issues and popular demands.
Topic:
Conflict, Militias, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

7814. The Dynamics of the Right to Social Protection in the Arab Region: Exploring the Role of the State in Changing Times

Author:
Azza El Hajj Sleiman
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Most Arab countries are currently experiencing a critical juncture in their history, encompassing not only political, social, and economic aspects but also legal dimensions. In contrast to many other regions, Arab societies are undergoing significant transformations, influenced by two fundamental factors: the digital revolution and economic globalization, and their wide-ranging social implications. Moreover, Arab countries are witnessing profound political shifts, with some experiencing complete state and institutional collapse, as in Lebanon, Tunisia, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen, and others. Security crises have emerged in certain Arab countries while economic and financial difficulties plague others, further complicating matters. Furthermore, the relationship between governance and society in some nations, as well as the nature of governance itself, poses its own set of challenges. Amidst this transitional period, the role of law and its capacity to safeguard society emerges as a common thread, constituting a significant challenge in this critical phase of Arab history. These challenges exacerbate the severity of crises and underscore the delicate nature of the current stage, necessitating a comprehensive approach at the intellectual, scientific, and societal levels. When dealing with political systems, it is imperative to acknowledge the indispensable role of legal principles, as they form the foundational tools of governance. The study of law extends beyond the mere examination, interpretation, and application of legislative texts and the rights they aim to safeguard; legal studies delve deeply into the fundamental aspects and essence of the rule of law and the mechanisms required for its effective implementation. This line of reasoning holds great importance, recognizing as it does that the source of legal norms lies with those in authority, as highlighted by Bernard Teyssié during a legal conference held at the French Senate in 2004.1 The connection between the enforcement of laws and political power, complicated by issues of jurisdiction, underscores the gravity of this relationship. Traditionally, both the issuance and enforcement of legal rules have been the exclusive domain of the state and its constitutional institutions.2 However, in the modern era, the most prominent and contemporary force shaping these dynamics is the end of exclusive state authority, largely influenced by the impact of neoliberalism. The exploration of the sources of law and their efficacy has traditionally been the domain of social sciences, politics, and philosophy until the positive school3 of law defined them, with the exception of customs, within formal constitutional frameworks. However, the evolving landscape of postmodern societies, the prevalence of neoliberalism, and the rise of social individualism have thrust this issue into the forefront of research, work, and contemplation across various societal actors. These transformations have not only altered the roles of individuals and groups but also impacted their very existence. The term “actors in society” encompasses a wide spectrum of individuals and entities. It includes citizens and residents, both as individuals and as collective groups. It also comprises civil society organizations, political parties, and economic actors ranging from small-scale local businesses to multinational corporations and economic projects. This purview also extends to all state institutions that play a role in shaping and implementing legal frameworks.
Topic:
Law, Institutions, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and North America

7815. Lebanon’s Unregulated Forests: How Tragedies Can Ignite Homegrown Transformations

Author:
Sammy Kayyed
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
One could argue that Akkar, more than any other region in Lebanon, epitomizes both the country’s incredible natural heritage and its spiraling economic and political crises. While Lebanon sets records for the loss of purchasing power, rapid financial collapse, social injustice, and frequency of government deadlock, Akkar regularly emerges as the most challenged across multiple dimensions of poverty.1 ,2 Yet, it is considered to have the richest forests, biodiversity, and water resources in a country that regionally stands apart for these attributes.3 Separations between natural wealth and socio-economic poverty are being joined by newfound opportunities, materializing over the last three years, with residents seeking to relieve their financial troubles by cutting trees. With little to no state regulation in forests, Akkar has become a hotbed for this understandable but possibly ecologically irreversible recourse. This paper tells the story of how the greatest rate of forest loss in Akkar’s recorded history is being met by local activists organizing, resisting forest over-exploitation, garnering resources, and onboarding the wider community in an unprecedented fashion. Their acts of solidarity happened in the face of recent conflict and casualty over forest resources stressed by climate extremes. Given the sensitive nature of the paper, the author chose to keep interlocutors, contacted between September and December 2022, anonymous.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Disasters, Forest, and Wildfires
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

7816. Regional Reflections on the War on Ukraine: Diplomacy, Conflict, and the Future of South East Asia

Author:
Kristie Barrow, Chong Ja Ian, Joel Ng, and Melanie O'Brien
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In June 2022, the National Office of the AIIA hosted its first overseas roundtable since COVID restrictions were lifted at the Australian High Commission in Singapore. The day-long session featured several Australia- and Singapore-based experts considering how the war in Ukraine might affect thinking on security in Southeast Asia. Several members of the Singaporean Government and the diplomatic community in Singapore were invited to the event. This special report is a product of the same project, and the AIIA is grateful for the generous support of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

7817. The Trilateral Security Dialogue, Defence Cooperation, & Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Aiden Warren, Charles T. Hunt, and Matthew Warren
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This report investigates the prospects and difficulties of enhancing AI cooperation among Australia, Japan, and the United States under the Trilateral Security Dialogue (TSD) framework. Significant overlap in national AI objectives and vision, along with shared understandings of global AI competition and the security implications of AI development, exist among the TSD members. Insights from consultations and workshops with various stakeholders in Washington D.C. reveal a strong appetite for further cross-border collaboration in AI. However, several challenges persist across common standards, interoperability, trust, awareness, export control regimes, and data governance. The report, the first in a series, outlines key areas for building a robust and resilient AI partnership that can address the security challenges and opportunities in the Indo-Pacific region.
Topic:
International Relations, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

7818. Can Australia and China have a stable relationship?

Author:
Yun Jiang
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
With the first visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) by an Australian Prime Minister since 2016, the Albanese Government has successfully stabilised the bilateral relationship in just over a year. This stabilisation comes after a severe deterioration in ties under the Morrison Government. Albanese’s visit to the PRC resolved many of the frictions from the Morrison years. But can this stability continue? What underlying factors could derail it in the medium to long term? In this report, drawing upon research in the PRC in late August 2023, AIIA-China Matters Fellow Yun Jiang explores the perspectives of PRC academics and analysts regarding the future of Australia-PRC relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

7819. Oversight and Accountability to Improve Security Sector Governance in Africa

Author:
Dan Kuwali
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The security sector is equally subject to the law and oversight institutions as any other public agency. Weak security sector oversight institutions inhibit security sector professionalism in Africa. Stronger internal and external oversight is an essential element of enhancing security sector effectiveness. Security organs should construct institutional frameworks that nurture professionalism and a consistent apolitical posture. When security actors allow themselves to become politicized, they erode the credibility of security institutions among the population and can themselves become a security threat to citizens.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Accountability, and Professionalism
Political Geography:
Africa

7820. Water and Rangeland in Karamoja

Author:
Anthony Egeru, Simon Peter Longoli, and Raphael Lotira Arasio
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Water and rangeland resources are the basis for livestock production in pastoralist areas of Africa and therefore have major impacts on pastoral livelihoods. Households with insufficient access to water or productive rangeland experience suboptimal herd growth and production, with associated negative impacts on the income and nutritious foods that livestock provide.
Topic:
Agriculture, Natural Resources, Pastoralism, Indigenous, Resource Management, and WASH Projects
Political Geography:
Africa