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7771. Occupational Trajectories Among Refugees in Austria: The Role of Co-ethnic and Austrian Social Networks in Job Search

Author:
Sandra Leitner
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses occupational trajectories of refugees from their last job in the home country to their first and current jobs in Austria and the role of co-ethnic and Austrian social networks in job search, using data from a large-scale survey of recognised refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran who have predominantly come to Austria since 2010, thereby covering the strong refugee wave of 2015 2016. The results corroborate a U-shaped pattern, with a sharp initial occupational loss followed by a rather moderate occupational recovery. Although native social networks play no role for occupational changes, co-ethnic social networks – particularly when used as a stand-alone job search strategy – prove detrimental along the entire trajectory. However, co-ethnic social networks are beneficial if used in combination with the Austrian labour market service or NGOs. Some refugees prove particularly vulnerable, such as older refugees or highly educated refugees who undergo more pronounced initial occupational downgrading, with subsequent occupational upgrading either limited or absent.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Integration, Social Capital, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

7772. Development of Mental Distress of Refugees in Austria During their Economic and Social Integration in 2017-2022

Author:
Sebastian Leitner
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Refugees are more likely to develop mental diseases as most of them have been exposed to potentially traumatic events and fundamental stressors in their home countries, during migration and after resettling in the host countries. This diminishes their prospects for social and economic integration, which also may have detrimental effects on their mental health. We examine the prevalence of mental disorders in the refugee population from Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and Syria who arrived in Austria recently, drawing on data from four waves of the FIMAS refugee survey project. Interviews were conducted between December 2017 and April 2022 in Austria, with a specific focus on Vienna, Salzburg, Graz, Linz and Innsbruck. We found a high share of refugees (31% in 2017/2018, declining to 26% in 2022) who showed moderate or severe levels of mental distress. Women were found to have a significantly higher risk of mental illness. We also investigate the effects of mediators on mental health, applying pooled and panel regression model. A positive association was found, for example, in the cases of discrimination experienced in Austria and obviously potentially traumatic events experienced during migration. Negative correlations were detected for certain mitigating factors that foster resilience, such as proficiency in the German language, living in the same household with one’s partner and children, being employed, having more supportive relationships, and being more satisfied with the housing situation.
Topic:
Refugees, Mental Health, Integration, Labor Market, and Social Integration
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

7773. Labour Market Integration Programmes for Refugees in Austria: Do they Really Work and for Whom?

Author:
Isilda Mara
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of the participation of refugees in integration programmes intended to help them gain employment. The specific programmes considered are the Competence Check programme and the Integration Year programme that were introduced in Austria around the time of the 2015 crisis, when refugees poured from the Middle East into the EU. The study is based on the fourth and fifth waves of a survey (FIMAS) of refugees from Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and Syria in Austria, and it uses matching models to evaluate the effects on employment of participation in those two programmes. More specifically, it applies multivariate matching methods that ensure better balancing properties between the control and the treated groups. We find especially positive effects of the programmes on the employability of women, the poorly educated, younger and older age cohorts. These programmes thus seem to work specifically for those that find themselves in a more vulnerable labour market situation.
Topic:
Refugees, Integration, Labor Market, and Matching Methods
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

7774. A Comparative Analysis of the Social Situation Between Carbon-intensive and Noncarbon-intensive Regions

Author:
Roman Römisch
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This study focuses on the social situation in carbon-intensive regions and the role of migration in defining its quality. The analysis examines whether carbon-intensive areas, especially those with large outward migration, are more vulnerable to adverse social trends than other regions. Our findings reveal a robust association between the processes of decarbonisation and migration, which collectively exert a significant impact on the social conditions within EU regions. This influence is assessed using various indicators, such as the Social Progress Index, employment rates, availability of hospital beds, access to preschool education, and the prevalence of severe material deprivation. We demonstrate that compared to noncarbon-intensive regions, carbon-intensive regions, compelled as they are to undergo structural changes to meet environmental requirements, have a diminished capacity to offer their residents satisfactory employment opportunities and a high quality of social life. Moreover, if carbon-intensive regions experience the challenge of negative net migration, their social development is highly likely to face a notable deterioration. On the other hand, in cases where inward migration predominates, regions at risk of decarbonisation tend to exhibit minor deterioration – and even outperform the noncarbon-intensive group experiencing outward migration.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Decarbonization, and Regional Development
Political Geography:
Europe

7775. Migration Drivers in Carbon-intensive Regions in the EU

Author:
Stefan Jestl and Roman Römisch
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The paper analyses drivers of migration in carbon-intensive and non-carbon-intensive regions in the EU. Using a mix of econometric methods, such as spatial panel and spatial cross-sectional methods, as well as geographically weighted regressions on data for EU NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 regions, the results indicate that particularly carbon-intensive regions in Central and Eastern Europe are not only challenged by a potential decline in carbon-intensive employment but also by outward migration flows that could diminish their prospects for longer-term economic prosperity. From a policy point of view, the results indicate that policies focusing on the replacement of the lost jobs in carbon-intensive industries might not be enough for the carbon-intensive regions in Central and Eastern Europe. Instead, these regions need a simultaneous package of additional policies to improve their attractiveness.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Green Transition, Regional Development, and Regional Migration
Political Geography:
Europe

7776. State Aid, R&D, and the Digital Content of Trade

Author:
Chiara Castelli, Dario Guarascio, Stefan Jestl, and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We test for the role of state aid as a driver of digital competitiveness at the industry level, focusing on the digital factor content of trade. Results show that state aid may increase digital competitiveness, particularly in R&D-intensive industries and in relation to the export of (digital) capital-intensive goods and services. Interestingly, aggregate state aid appears to be more effective than specific R&D funds in explaining the performance of country-industries in foreign markets.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Trade, Industry, Capital, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Europe

7777. The Cyclical Behaviour of Government Spending for Social Protection: Is the OECD Methodology Robust?

Author:
Aleksandr Arsenev, Philipp Heimberger, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Spending elasticities measure the reaction of different government spending components to the business cycle. They are important inputs for fiscal forecasts, and they are particularly relevant in the context of European Union (EU) fiscal rules, as elasticity estimates enter the estimation of fiscal space. This paper analyses the sensitivity of the estimation method used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Commission to obtain government spending elasticities by focusing on 11 EU countries in the 1995-2020 period. Our results suggest that spending elasticities are sensitive to small variations in data and model specification. For most EU countries, we reject the assumption that only unemployment spending responds to cyclical variations. While unemployment spending is indeed a major driver of counter-cyclical social spending, other categories of social spending also show signs of responding to the business cycle.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Finance, Macroeconomics, Public Debt, Social Spending, Public Spending, and Fiscal Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, Poland, Germany, Denmark, Romania, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Austria, and Czechia

7778. The Lobbying Battle for Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:
Ben Freeman and Artin DerSimonian
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
Long before Azerbaijani forces took the Nagorno-Karabakh region by force in September — displacing 100,000 Karabakh Armenians in an act that’s been described as ethnic cleansing — Azerbaijan and Armenia were waging a furious lobbying and influence battle in Washington. A closer examination of the countries’ respective attempts to influence U.S. policymakers before the Second and Third Nagorno-Karabakh Wars provides critical context for understanding Washington’s muted reaction to Azerbaijan’s recent aggression, seemingly at odds with the strong moral position U.S. officials have taken over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Azerbaijan has spent years pursuing a course of “caviar diplomacy” in our nation’s capital: using the authoritarian petrostates’ wealth to court officials, journalists, and scholars. Since 2015, the government of Azerbaijan has spent just over $7 million on lobbying and public relations firms registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). Azerbaijan’s agents — like BGR Government Affairs — have conducted vigorous advocacy for Baku’s interests, including continued military assistance to Azerbaijan following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. Azerbaijan’s influence in the U.S. has also been aided considerably by Israel; Baku boasts powerful American-Israeli advocates like Ezra Friedlander as registered lobbyists for its interests. And this only constitutes what’s publicly known which, given Azerbaijan’s history, is likely just the tip of the iceberg. As the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) has painstakingly documented, the Azerbaijan government has a history of laundering its influence in Europe and the U.S. Azerbaijan’s extensive influence efforts in the U.S. stand in stark contrast to those of the Armenian interests which, until earlier this year, had not had a FARA registered lobbying or public relations firm on their payroll since 2020. Armenia has traditionally relied on its extensive diaspora to garner influence in the West, with repeated successes including a boycott of lobbying and PR firms working for Azerbaijan and President Biden’s recognition of the Armenian genocide. But as the negligible U.S. response to Azerbaijan’s use of military force in Nagorno-Karabakh shows, Washington’s perceived strategic interests continue to trump Armenians’ concerns. As the negligible U.S. response to Azerbaijan’s use of military force in Nagorno-Karabakh shows, Washington’s perceived strategic interests continue to trump Armenians’ concerns. U.S. officials’ overly-cautious and restrained reaction to the lightning offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh and the resulting mass exodus of Armenians from the region seems to reflect a stalemate in the lobbying and influence battle the two countries have been waging in the U.S; it may also be a product of the selective approach to human rights within U.S. foreign policy. No matter how one weighs the precise causes, the effect remains the same: a country used military might to reclaim its territory during a negotiating process, faced little consequences from the U.S., and seems emboldened to continue its aggression in an already volatile region. Time will tell the dangers of that decision.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Lobbying, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh

7779. The Conventional Wisdom About the Chinese Military Challenge: Incomplete and Unpersuasive

Author:
Steven Kosiak
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
Now possessing the world’s largest economy and backed up by an increasingly capable military, in recent years China has grown into an ever more significant and complex concern for the United States, its friends and allies, and others in the Indo–Pacific region. It has become not only stronger and more capable but, in a variety of areas, including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits, more assertive. In this light, it is only prudent that the United States remain engaged in the region and, along with its allies, maintain robust military capabilities. At the same time, however, it is difficult to understand some of the main features of what has emerged as the conventional wisdom concerning the magnitude, scope and shape of the challenge China represents, particularly in its military dimensions. Among other things, shortcomings in the conventional wisdom include the unsettling degree to which mainstream assessments of the Chinese military challenge have: • devoted enormous attention to various Taiwan contingencies and, by comparison, remarkably little attention to the Chinese military’s capacity — or lack thereof — to directly conquer or coerce any of the major powers in the region; • equated defending Taiwan, and other relatively small nearby economies, with preventing Chinese regional hegemony, without providing significant analytical support for the presumption; • argued that Taiwan is defensible, in part because of the vulnerability of seaborne invasion forces to precision-guided munitions, as well as the difficulties inherent strategies aimed at punishing adversaries into submission (e.g., through bombardment or blockade) — while seeming to ignore the logical inferences of those conclusions for the defensibility of the major powers in the region, which are larger, economically stronger and generally located much farther from China; • analogized the challenge posed by China today to the threats posed by Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in World War Two and the Soviet Union during the Cold War in ways that — because of differences in, among other things, geography, technology, nationalism, and China’s role in the global economy (including its great dependence on international trade) — may do more to obscure than illuminate the challenge. These analytical shortcomings need to be addressed through additional, more rigorous and better focused research and analysis. While clearly needed, however, it seems unlikely that this additional analysis will come close to fully redeeming the conventional wisdom about the Chinese military challenge as articulated today, including the necessity of some key components of the U.S. military’s existing force structure, modernization and other plans. Taken together, the gaps, weaknesses, blind spots, and analytical leaps upon which the conventional wisdom rests appear too pervasive and deep for such to be the case. Given this reality, rather than the current U.S. strategy, embracing something akin to the Active Denial strategy proposed by a Quincy Institute panel in 2022 would seem to represent a more prudent approach. 1 This strategy embraces some cuts to force structure — especially among ground forces — yielding significant budgetary savings. But it retrains robust air, naval and other forces that would leave the U.S. military with a powerful capacity to deter and, if need be, counter Chinese aggression in the Indo–Pacific and, specifically, to support key U.S. allies and friends in the region. And better addressing the areas noted above could go far towards facilitating the refinement of this more restrained strategy, and ensuring that it is both as effective as possible and can be supported at an affordable and sustainable price.
Topic:
Nationalism, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Influence, and Military
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, and United States of America

7780. March of the Four–Stars: The Role of Retired Generals and Admirals in the Arms Industry

Author:
William D. Hartung
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
The revolving door between the U.S. government and the arms industry, which involves hundreds of senior Pentagon officials and military officers every year, generates the appearance — and in some cases the reality — of conflicts of interest in the making of defense policy and in the shaping of the size and composition of the Pentagon budget. This report looks at the post–government employment records of a subset of the larger flow of “revolvers”: four–star generals and admirals who retired between June 2018 and July 2023. Among the findings are the following: 26 of 32 four–star officers who retired after June 2018 — over 80 percent — went to work for the arms industry as board members, advisors, executives, consultants, lobbyists, or members of financial institutions that invest in the defense sector. The biggest category of post–retirement employment for four–stars, by far, was as board members or advisors for small and medium–sized arms contractors, with 15 choosing that option. This compares to five who became board members, advisors or executives for one of the top 10 arms contractors. Five retired four–stars became arms industry consultants, five became lobbyists for weapons companies, and four joined financial firms that make significant investments in the defense sector. This brief recommends a number of measures designed to limit undue influence and potential conflicts of interest on the part of retired four–star generals and other retired Pentagon officials and military officers who pass through the revolving door. Bar four–star officers from working for firms that receive $1 billion or more in Pentagon contracts per year. Extend “cooling off” periods before retired Pentagon officials and military officers can go to work on behalf of the arms industry. Increase transparency over post–government employment and activities on the part of retired Pentagon and military officials working on behalf of arms contractors, including reporting on their interactions with Congress and the executive branch. The most comprehensive current proposal to address the revolving door issue is Senator Elizabeth Warren’s Department of Defense Ethics and Anti-Corruption Act. 1 The bill would encompass many of the recommendations put forward in this report.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Industry, Military, and Military-Industrial Complex
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America