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9282. INDIA-CHINA STRATEGIC COMPETITION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN
- Author:
- Chuong Nguyen, Binh Nguyen, Hiep Tran, and Mi Le
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- The XXI is considered by major countries in the Asia-Pacific region as ‘the century of sea and ocean’ and is accompanied by fierce competition among the nations to gain interest in the sea regions. On the basis that previously only considered the competition for military objectives, geostrategic bases and traffic channels through the straits, nowadays, countries worldwide have stepped up the competition for economic interests and marine resources. The development of military power and the competitive activities for resources at sea show clear the tendency to use the sea to contain the continent. In that context, the Indian Ocean, as the world’s third largest ocean, has an important geographic location and rich and diverse natural resources; the arterial sea route is gradually becoming the center of new world geopolitics and an important area in the strategic competition between two ‘Asian giants’ - India and China. The competition between these countries in the Indian Ocean is growing and profoundly impacts the region’s stability and security. This article focuses on the position and important role of the Indian Ocean in the policies of India and China, the fierce competition between the two countries in nearly two decades of the XXI century.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, India, Asia, and Indian Ocean
9283. KAZAKHSTAN AMID UNREST AND INSTABILITY: MAIN IMPLICATIONS
- Author:
- Aram Terzyan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the reasoning and implications of the unrest in Kazakhstan unleashed in January of 2022. This crisis was the most severe form of violence that Kazakhstan has endured since gaining independence. It distorted Kazakhstan’s image as a stable country. While the crisis was limited to the territory of Kazakhstan and developed mainly from domestic problems, it undeniably acquired an important international element. Kazakhstan’s appeal to the CSTO presented a drastic change in Kazakhstan’s foreign policy and ensued in the shift in the balance of power in the greater Eurasian region. Although Russia played a relatively subtle role on the ground, Russia’s involvement was set to link the political future of Kazakhstan to Russia for an unspecified amount of time. The study concludes that Kazakhstan is faced with the challenges of undertaking significant reforms to lower the possibility of further instabilities while remaining true to its multi-vector foreign policy agenda amid Russian intrusion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Reform, Domestic Policy, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan
9284. THE APPLIED STATE OF VIOLATION OF WOMEN'S RIGHTS IN ARMED CONFLICTS: YAZIDI WOMEN DURING THE ISIS WAR IN IRAQ
- Author:
- Roza Omer Hamadamin, Nor Anita Abdullah, and Mohd Zakhiri Md. Nor
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- On 3 August 2014, fighters from the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) attacked the Yazidi minority of Sinjar in Kurdistan-Iraq. The Yazidi community was the main target of ISIS fighters, including Yazidi women. The ISIS group has committed violence against Yazidi women in several ways. This study aims to show the crimes committed by the group ISIS against Yazidi women and to highlight the problem of violence against women in war through recent living examples, such as women in the ISIS war between 2014-2017. The second part of this study identifies the legal deficiencies related to the regulations that guarantee the protection of women's rights in Iraq. Through a content analysis approach, qualitative methodologies are used. Also, based on a thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews, this paper found that the Yazidi women and girls have been subjected to the most heinous crimes involving international crimes. Furthermore, despite various legal provisions in Iraqi laws and the constitution relating to protecting women's rights, these laws have several legal deficiencies. The Iraqi legal authority has not attempted to guarantee sufficient protection for women's rights in armed conflicts.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Women, Islamic State, Armed Conflict, Human Rights Violations, and Yazidis
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
9285. RUSSIA’S COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES ABOUT CRIMEA IN SPANISH-LANGUAGE SPUTNIK AND RUSSIA TIMES (2014-2018)
- Author:
- Ludmila Gonzalez Cerulli and Sybil Rhodes
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- We analyze Russia’s communication strategies in the period leading up to and following the seizure (2014-2018) of the Crimean Peninsula in the Spanish editions of its digital platforms, Sputnik and Russia Times. Drawing from theories of political communication, we show how Russia used storytelling and framing to build an international image and political brand consistent with, and try to justify, its foreign policy actions. Specifically, Russian messages transmit no room for doubt about the legality of any of its strategies in Crimea. We argue that this communication strategy is consistent with the concept of ‘sharp power’ to describe Russian projection in the world. Cultural and emotional appeals designed to generate positive emotions about Russia, i.e., ‘soft power’, were far less common. In recent years, Russian projection of sharp power appears to have increased in the Spanish-speaking world, particularly in South America. In addition to helping explain Russian foreign policy, our findings contribute to broader debates about political branding and truth in a ‘post-truth’, multipolar world.
- Topic:
- Communications, Media, Soft Power, and Cyberspace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and Crimea
9286. THE DYNAMICS OF DEMOCRATIZATION AND THE IMPLICATIONS ON THAILAND’S FOREIGN POLICY
- Author:
- Ornthicha Duangratana
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- As Thailand undergoes a long democratization process, significant barriers to the country’s consolidation of democracy include reserved domains and tutelary powers. While states are usually treated as homogenous units in understanding their behaviors in the international arena, the internal processes are important determinants of states’ actions. Therefore, the swings in the embeddedness of Thai reserved domains and tutelary powers can shape the domestic constraints that governmental actors face in foreign policy formulations. In this paper, the Thai democratization trajectory was investigated in a comparative study to trace the changes in the prevalence of reserved domains and tutelary powers in different periods. Then, through an exploration into Thailand’s foreign policy decisions that the country enacted towards the major powers and the neighboring countries in the Cold War and the post-Cold War periods, these foreign policy actions were scrutinized in connection to the dynamic of the decision-making apparatus of the time. The information was compiled through official papers, government statements, newspapers, and scholarly literature. The paper demonstrates that when tutelary powers and reserved domains are highly embedded in the policy-making structure, and conflicting standpoints on a foreign policy decision are presented, the outcomes of the policy-making process will lean towards the camp advocated by the non-democratic actors.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, Democratization, Reserved Domain, and Tutelary Power
- Political Geography:
- Thailand and Southeast Asia
9287. THE CHALLENGES TO WOMEN’S ENTREPRENEURIAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY
- Author:
- Rimsha Khalid, Mohsin Raza, Anusara Sawangchai, and Hassan Raza
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- Entrepreneurship is one of the growing trends, and studies are focusing on it generally. However, this study is mainly focused on women’s entrepreneurship. This study intends to measure the impact of work-family interference, socio-cultural support, access to finance entrepreneurial skills, and legal constraints on women’s entrepreneurial involvement through the mediation of self-leadership in the hospitality and tourism sector. This study has chosen a quantitative approach, collecting data through surveys. The snowball sampling method was used for data collection from women of Pakistan, and data was analyzed through the PLS-SEM method. The result of the present study affirms that work-family interference, social and cultural support, and entrepreneurial skills are significantly associated with women’s entrepreneurial involvement other than access to finance and legal constraints. Moreover, self-leadership significantly mediates between (work-family interference, socio-cultural support, and access to finance) and women’s entrepreneurial involvement except for entrepreneurial skills and legal constraints. The present study’s findings affirm that formal or informal institutions influence women’s entrepreneurial involvement. This study may help women entrepreneurs understand the factors and policymakers to make policies for women entrepreneurs in the hospitality sector.
- Topic:
- Tourism, Women, Entrepreneurship, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
9288. THE MIGRATION STRATEGIES AND POSITIONS ON THE EU MIGRATION AND ASYLUM AGENDA: EVIDENCE FROM THE VISEGRAD GROUP COUNTRIES
- Author:
- Tomáš Kajánek
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- At the time of the outbreak of the migration crisis in Europe, the Visegrad Group gained the status of the EU troublemaker due to its opposition to the solidarity and cohesion mechanisms adopted on the European level. The migration strategies (not only) of the individual states of the grouping proved insufficient and unfeasible in times of crisis. However, in the case of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the Slovak Republic, the absence of national mechanisms and solutions was partially replaced after 2015 by joint declarations and statements rejecting active cooperation in resolving migration and asylum pressures within the EU Single Market. Despite failing to manage migratory pressures since 2015, four Central European countries have not learned their lessons and will face unprecedented crises in 2022 again. This time, however, Visegrad countries became the first-line countries affected by the refugee crisis. The migration and asylum agenda is thus becoming an extremely complex problem within the Visegrad Group region due to the initially intense politicization of the topic by the government elites in individual states. The paper analyses the migration strategies of individual states and the migration and asylum management-related positions after the migration crisis in 2015 and the sequence of events associated with the outbreak of armed conflict in Ukraine in early 2022.
- Topic:
- Migration, European Union, Asylum, and Visegrad Group
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9289. ACTUAL CHALLENGE IN INTERNATIONAL CORPORATE TAXATION: SHIFTING THE OBLIGATION OF CONDUCT INTO OBLIGATION OF RESULT
- Author:
- Mihaela Tofan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- The research answered whether cooperation in ruling corporate taxation, a traditional obligation of conduct of sovereign states, was undergoing profound transformation into the obligation of result. The analyzed topic was not whether the tax authorities want or should cooperate (which is answered per se), but rather how to appropriately respond to the international taxation requirements for strengthening the multilateral agreements. Tax authorities worldwide have expressed concerns about identifying efficient regulation, and the development of multilateral agreements to combat tax evasion was under long and often unproductive negotiation. The empirical analyses of relevant literature and jurisprudence helped formulate an opinion on the regulation’s efficiency in strengthening multilateral taxation. The need to change the nature of the state’s obligation to negotiate fiscal regulation was not mentioned explicitly in hard law. Still, it was indirectly supported by soft law instruments, such as state representatives’ continuous yet divergent dialogue and the approaches presented in the international courts’ jurisprudence. The consistent influence on the obligation to support developments in international law in corporate taxation was justified, given the limit when considering its conduct nature, compared to potential benefits generated by the obligation of result.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Treaties and Agreements, and Tax Systems
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9290. ECONOMETRIC EVALUATION OF PUBLIC DEBT ON INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM KOSOVO AND NORTH MACEDONIA
- Author:
- Ismail Mehmeti and Gazmeda Deda
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- The nexus between public debt and inflation has been continuously investigated, but after the pandemic, it has returned to the center of researchers' courtesy. Consequently, this research examines the influences of public debt, interest rates, trade openness, GDP growth, and foreign direct investments on inflation. The study employs secondary data from 2008 to 2021 and incorporates a mixed econometric technique such as the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Arrellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond approach. The study's findings argue that public debt, interest rates, and trade openness significantly influence inflation, whereas GDP growth has a significantly negative impact. Because of the limited number of observations in the context of the research, we have not been able to evaluate the impact in the long term. The uniqueness and relevance of this research stem from its use of a combined approach, and in recent months, a continuous increase in inflation has been recorded throughout the world. The current findings and arguments inspire a productive discourse among academics, scholars, and policy-making entities.
- Topic:
- Inflation, Econometrics, and Public Debt
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and North Macedonia
9291. THE IMPACT OF ISIS ON IRAQ’S NATIONAL SECURITY: REVIEW OF THE PERIOD FROM 2014 TO 2017
- Author:
- Araz Ramazan Ahmad and Gardwn Tahir Othman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- In the post-Ba’athist era, stability and national security remain the two key goals. Iraq has suffered from many extremist terrorist groups on several separate stages from 2003 to 2017. The most threatening terrorist group was ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), which has enormous impacts on Iraqi society, given the vast geographical areas that it controlled, and the dangers, crimes and violations suffered by the Iraqi people with all its components. The main aim of this study is to determine the impacts of ISIS on Iraqi national security. The study relied on Content Analysis Method to analyze the collected data and achieve its aims. Also, the primary research question is about the impact of ISIS on Iraq’s national security from 2014 to 2017. Correspondingly, an international coalition of more than a hundred countries was formed to stop the rapid expansion of ISIS. The number of victims who lost their lives and were affected at the psychological and humanitarian levels was explained in this study. According to the research results, ISIS was seeking long-term goals. The most important was the preparation for disseminating this new extremist ideology. The intelligence and the exploitation of poverty, ignorance, and political conflicts that ISIS used aimed to implant the extremist mentality in the most significant number of attention.
- Topic:
- National Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and International Coalition
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
9292. MANAGEMENT’S PERCEPTION OF THE DETERMINANTS THAT INFLUENCE SMEs PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM KOSOVO
- Author:
- Sokol Krasniqi, Arta Jashari, and Ismail Mehmeti
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are now unquestionable contributors to economic development on the one side and employment creation on the other. To promote sustained growth, SMEs must meet specific prerequisites, particularly the leadership structures of this segment. Therefore, this research aims to investigate and identify the determinants that affect SMEs performance. The research employs a qualitative technique, using questionnaires containing 52 questions. The study surveyed 336 SMEs owners or managers from March to April 2022. The Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) empirical technique explored the influence of education level, previous experience, training attendance, business plan, consultation services, and employees' insufficient competency in SMEs performance. The research has revealed that the level of education and consultancy services positively impact SMEs performance. In contrast, neglect of training and employees' insufficient competence harm SMEs performance. The study encourages SMEs owners and managers to take advantage of professional training opportunities and to invest in existing personnel through training to acquire acceptable competence, which will be reflected in management performance. From the perspective of the contribution, it provides the most recent evidence in the context of Kosovo's economy, employing the logistic regression analysis.
- Topic:
- Business, Training, Management, Skills, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
9293. THE ROLE OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN FIGHTING CORRUPTION IN THE JUDICIARY SYSTEM: THE CASE OF 2016 JUDICIAL REFORM IN ALBANIA
- Author:
- Bojana Hajdini and Gentjan Skara
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- Corruption in the judiciary system has been considered by Albanian citizens and international organizations as deeply corrupt. In 2016 Albanian Parliament, supported by the EU and USA, adopted a judiciary reform to increase transparency, accountability, impartiality and citizens’ access to information. One way of preventing corruption and increasing citizens’ access to justice is by using information technology. This paper analyses the role of information and communication technology in preventing corruption in the Albanian judiciary system. The main research question is how and to what extent digitizing the judiciary contributes to preventing corruption in the judiciary system. The paper argues that the use of ICT in the judiciary system has been limited due to several factors, such as lack of legislation on the use of ICT in the judiciary system, absence of a unified automated case management system, lack of appropriate education or training of judiciary staff to use ICT and lack of reinvestments on ICT equipment in courts. The 2016 judicial reform, for the first time, emphasized the importance of digitizing the judiciary system in Albania. The paper concludes that digitizing the judiciary will increase integrity and prevent corruption in the judicial system.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Reform, Judiciary, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Albania
9294. EMERGING POWER IN INDUSTRIALIZATION: EMPOWERING INDIA THROUGH ENTREPRENEURSHIP
- Author:
- Sayak Pal, N. Thilaka, and Sharmila Kayal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- The ‘soft power’ can be brought forward and achieved for any developing country through softer means. Advertising (both direct and indirect approach) is a powerful tool for disseminating information to various stakeholders concerning the MSME sector. To introspect the potentiality of India’s MSME’s emerging power, the researchers attempted to answer the different components that shaped Indian industrialization over the years and also analyzed the direct and indirect audio-visual advertisements created on MSMEs to encourage entrepreneurial activities throughout the nation. The observation indicates that direct and indirect advertisements that promote and encourage the growth of entrepreneurship have their advantages and disadvantages; however, direct advertisements are proven to be preferred over indirect advertisements, while the reason behind it can be the dilution of concept or the prominence of commercialization.
- Topic:
- Entrepreneurship, Economy, Industrialization, Emerging Powers, and Advertising
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
9295. EVALUATING THE ROLE OF TOURISM IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA AND OTHER MEMBER STATES OF THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION
- Author:
- Gayane Tovmasyan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- Tourism has a significant role in the economies of many countries. It creates jobs, brings money, promotes investments, decreases poverty, develops infrastructures, etc. Many research works try to evaluate the role of tourism development on the economy. The article evaluates the role of tourism development in the economy of Armenia and checks the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH). With the help of statistical methods, the article evaluates the connections between tourism total expenses (visitor exports, domestic spending, government spending, and capital investment), the number of tourists and tourism total contribution to GDP, employment and other indicators. Besides, the correlation analysis between these indicators was done for the Member States of the Eurasian Economic Union. The results show that the increase in tourism expenses and the number of tourists will increase GDP and employment. However, the change in tourism contribution to employment is not so high, which was explained by different reasons. The same is the case for other countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. The article results may be helpful for future studies, as well as for government agencies for evaluating tourism contribution to economic development and for elaborating tourism development policies.
- Topic:
- Development, Treaties and Agreements, Tourism, GDP, and Expenses
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Armenia
9296. DOES COLLECTIVE ACTION INSTITUTIONALIZE RATIONAL CHOICE? CANDIDATE SELECTION IN INDONESIAN POLITICAL PARTIES
- Author:
- Andi Luhr Prianto, Achmad Nurmandi, Zuly Qodir, and Hasse Jubba
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- The selection process for local head candidates in the electoral democracy in Indonesia is still closed and confidential. Recruitment regulations are insufficient to control the informal actions of the candidate selection process, which is based on political pragmatism. This paper examines the dynamics of local head candidate selection from the rational choice institutionalism approach, with the collective action perspective. The research method uses content analysis, with analyzed interpretively using the NVivo 12 plus application. Research findings show that candidate selection in political parties is not entirely based on supply and demand but as a rational choice formed from the collective actions of party elites. In deciding the mayoral candidate in Makassar City in Indonesia 2020, political parties are influenced by collective mentality, individual quality, group size and resources in political parties. The conclusion is that the rational choice institutionalism approach through the practices of principal-agent, game-theory and rule-based models occurs in the selection of local head candidates. This rational choice institutionalism approach explains the tension between political actors to maximize personal and group interests in political party institutions.
- Topic:
- Institutionalism, Political Parties, Rational Choice, and Collective Action
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
9297. DEMOCRACY AND THE RIGHTS OF NON-MAJORITY COMMUNITIES AT THE LOCAL LEVEL IN KOSOVO
- Author:
- Besim Myrtezani and Ferdi Kamberi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- Democratic governance has to do with the majority's will, respecting the rights of communities and all citizens' well-being. In Kosovo, the rights of communities are regulated by the constitution and legislation, which guarantee the special rights of minority communities. One of the fundamental policies of governmental institutions was about decentralizing local self-government, designed to facilitate the creation of new municipalities of communities and their integration into the local institutions. Our purpose was to search and analyze the level of representation of communities in the local institutions, legal mechanisms that guarantee their rights, challenges in putting the rights of communities into practice, and the political steps that must be taken to achieve so. The methodology is based on quantitative research with 500 (five hundred) respondents in three municipalities: Pristina, Gracanica, and Dragash, where 59% of respondents are male and 41% are female. The results show that about 55% of the communities are somewhat satisfied with the constitutional guarantees, and 38% are represented in the institutional life of Kosovo. Implementing legal mechanisms has allowed the communities to have higher representation at institutional levels and be part of Kosovo society’s integrative processes.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Legislation, Institutions, Autonomy, and Community
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
9298. Rethinking Military Responses to Terrorism and Insurgency in Nigeria
- Author:
- Maurice Ogbonnaya
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- Since 2003, terrorist insurgency in Nigeria has occasioned complex security and humanitarian crises, especially in the northeast region of the country. Boko Haram, a radical Islamist group from the region, has killed over 30,000 people and caused the displacement of more than 3 million others within the Lake Chad Basin region. Military responses by the Nigerian state and in collaboration with multilateral security agencies have achieved limited success. This paper not only questions the adequacy of military responses to terrorism, as a standalone approach, but it also advances the argument in the extant literature on the obsolescence of excessive militarization of counterterrorism operations as a security management strategy. It suggests the adoption of a more comprehensive and broad-based strategic approach. This is predicated on the limitations of purely military operations in counterterrorism, noting that military responses alone are structurally not designed to deal with the fundamental root causes of terrorism. In this regard, the paper advocates for a combination of military and other non-military counterterrorism approaches that seek to address the fundamental factors that give rise to terrorism.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Economic Inequality, and Exclusion
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
9299. World Economy Winter 2022: Strong headwinds for global economic activity
- Author:
- Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Jan Reents, and Nils Sonnenberg
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Global growth has decelerated over the course of the year under the impact of high energy prices and great uncertainty. Monetary policy, which is being tightened very quickly in view of high inflationary pressure across the board, is now also putting a drag on economic activity. Overall, production remained on an upward trend into the fall, with impetus coming from easing supply bottlenecks and the continuing normalization of activity in those sectors of the economy particularly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Towards the end of the year, however, economic momentum weakened noticeably further. The major advanced economies in particular are currently facing a period of weak economic activity despite considerable fiscal support measures. At the same time, the problems for the Chinese economy remain significant. While global output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) at 3.2 percent is expected to grow by 0.3 percentage points more this year than expected in September, we continue to forecast an increase of only 2.2 percent next year. For 2024, our expectation has even been reduced slightly to 3.2 percent, mainly because we do expect the US economy to recover slowly. Inflation is likely to have peaked and is expected to slow significantly over the forecast horizon thanks to lower commodity prices and easing economic tensions. However, underlying inflation is not likely to return to target levels until the end of the forecast period.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Economy, Business, COVID-19, and Emerging Economies
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
9300. German Economy Winter 2022: Inching through the energy crisis
- Author:
- Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Dominik Groll, Nils Sonnenberg, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Vincent Stamer, and Timo Hoffmann
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Wholesale prices for gas and electricity have fallen significantly in recent months - even though they are still at a high level. In addition, the burdens on private households and companies caused by high energy costs are to be cushioned by so-called price brakes. Overall, inflation in 2023 will be much lower at 5.4 percent than we had expected in our autumn forecast (8.7 percent). Although real disposable income and, as a result, private consumption are likely to decrease next year, the decline will be much smaller than had been expected a few months ago. As a result, we now expect a slight increase in GDP of 0.3 percent for 2023 (autumn: -0.7 percent). In 2024, GDP is expected to grow somewhat more strongly again at 1.3 percent (autumn: 1.7 percent). The labour market is robust despite the economic slowdown, partly because companies are still desperately seeking skilled workers. The public fiscal balance is likely to deteriorate significantly in 2023 due to the aid packages in response to the energy crisis and displays a deficit of around 4 percent relative to GDP. With the expiry of the aid packages, the deficit will decrease again in 2024.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Budget, Business, Labor Market, Energy Crisis, Emerging Economies, and Advanced Economies
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany